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EUR/USD: "Engulfing" on the Moving Average
11/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH4.png There’s a “Doji” pattern, which has been confirmed enough, so the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing”. If this pattern confirms, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH1.png The price formed an “Engulfing” pattern on the 34 Moving Average line. So, there’s an opportunity to see a local downward correction. At the same time, bulls could try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11389 |
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USD/JPY: "Tweezers" and "Tower"
11/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH4.png The price has been rising since a “Harami” was formed at the last low. Meanwhile, there’s an “Engulfing” at the local high. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an option to have another upward movement. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Tower”, which both have been confirmed. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a downward correction. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average, which could act as a support. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11390 |
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Fibonacci Expansions
11/21/2016 In the last article, we’ve learned how to draw/use Fibonacci retracement. Today we will discover another effective technical tool – Fibonacci expansion. It may help you to identify exit levels, which will maximize your profit. We often face with some temporary deviations in trends (we call them pullbacks or retracements). Once they are exhausted, prices usually return to the primary trend and sometimes even break highs/lows. At this very moment, you can use Fibo expansion to maximize your profit gains. All in all, our recommendation is to watch for a higher low or a lower high to apply this instrument. It’s clear that you will be lucky to catch the trend at the very beginning to get the biggest gains. How to draw Fibonacci Expansion https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%D0%B9(14).png To plot Fibo Expansion correctly, you should select three price points which indicate: 1. The beginning of the primary move, you first high; 2. The end of this move (the low of the move traced from the first high); 3. And the retracement (the swing high, next point measured from the primary move low). Once you’ve plotted these points to the chart, three horizontal lines will appear corresponding to certain Fibo levels. Three horizontal lines identify your resistance/support levels which can be used for placing your profit targets. Voilà! That’s it, you’ve found your profitable setups, now you can earn lots of money. Beware of the “Fibo expansion addiction” that may appear after you earn some money with this technical tool. Once you add Fibo expansions on a few of your charts, you will prone to add them all the time, because they are really profitable. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11391 |
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AUD/USD reversed from pivotal support level 0.7320
11/21/2016 AUD/USD reversed from pivotal support level 0.7320 Next buy target – 0.7440 AUD/USD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 0.7320 (which reversed the previous waves (iv) and (ii) in June, as can be seen from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.7320 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. Given the fact that both the daily RSI and Stochastic indicators are in the oversold zone right now - AUD/USD can be expected to correct up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7440 (former powerful support from September, acting as resistance after it was broken recently). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...M_(1_day2).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11392 |
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NZD/USD reversed from support zone
11/21/2016 NZD/USD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 0.7150 NZD/USD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong multi-month support level 0.7000 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the middle of June, as can be seen from the daily NZD/USD chart below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from May. Given the strength of the support level 0.7000 - NZD/USD can be expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7150. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the aforementioned support level 0.7000. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11393 |
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EUR/USD: extension in wave [iii]
11/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1162958001.png There’s a bearish extension in wave [iii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main intraday target is -2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). So, bears are likely going to deliver a new low shortly. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1162958002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a correction in progress, which could be wave (iv). So, if the price finds a lodgement under -1/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave (v) of [iii]. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11394 |
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EUR/GBP: technical and fundemantal analysis
11/21/2016 EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8580 level consolidating after significant downfall. If the euro manages to overcome 0.8636 (100-day MA) resistance, the prices might edge up towards 0.8778 (50-day MA, the lower boundary of Ichimoku cloud). The nearest supports are located at 0.8408 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from the June 24 low) and 0.8253 (200-day MA) near 61.7% Fibo retracement level. Fundamental analysis: In favor of the pound: According to the recent comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, the central bank will continue its ultra-loose policy. In contrast, the BOE senior officials are not going to introduce additional easing measures, as they expect increasing inflation rate. In the beginning of December, the Supreme Court will make its decision on whether or not the UK government should be able to activate Article 50 and begin the Brexit without Parliamentary procedure. Decision in favor of Parliament will be positive for the UK currency (because the process of Brexit will be delayed). On the 4th of December, there will an Italian referendum that might get the euro down, if voters say “no” to the constitutional changes. Against the pound: On Wednesday, we will receive the Autumn Statement from the UK government which should indicate the deterioration in British public finances. So, it might weaken the pound and send the EUR/GBP currency pair higher. If we get upbeat preliminary November PMIs for the Eurozone, wait for the euro strengthening on Wednesday (the releases will be published ahead of the US Autumn Statement). On Friday, watch for Q3 growth stats for Britain. It can weaken the pound significantly, if data falls short of expectations. We would rather be neutral on EUR/GBP in the short-term. On Wednesday, there might be some rebounds from present levels, if there are no deteriorations in the PMIs releases from Eurozone, and if the UK Autumn Statement does influence the pound. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11395/EURGBP.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11395 |
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USD/CAD & Core Retail Sales for September: a rebound is coming in the Loonie?
11/22/2016 Today at 13:30 GMT we’ll have a key indicator from Canada, as the Core Retail Sales for September will be released and market’s analysts are expecting a positive data from 0.0% to 0.5%. From June, the data hasn’t been showing gains across the board and that’s why it could be a market mover in the CAD pairs. However, if we see a weak data or between the expected range, we won’t see strong volatility after the release. Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing a bullish channel developing and it could support further gains of the greenback against the Loonie. If we see a rebound, that should mean a weak core retail sales’ data, the pair may test the resistance level of 1.3465 and break it to reach the 1.3576 price zone. However, if the Loonie manages to consolidate below the 200 SMA, then it can test the 1.3276 level, which should happen with a better-than-expected data. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DCADH4(16).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11396 |
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AUD/USD: bears slackened opposition
11/22/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, after the target on the short positions has been fulfilled, quotes moved towards the support at 0.7304 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the medium-term downward wave). The "bears" failed to test it, however, they remain their control over the pair. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2_08_31_06.png On the AUD/USD hourly chart, "Deepwater Shark" pattern has been implemented. Its transformation into the model 5-0 can lead to the correction towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% from CD wave. There are resistance levels near these marks.Rollbacks should be used for the opening of short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2_08_31_22.png Recommendations: SELL 0,749 SL 0,7555 TP 0,73 SELL 0,7545 SL 0,76 TP 0,73. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11397 |
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EUR/USD: euro is dreaming of the balance of powers
11/22/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there are two long-term patterns - "Head and shoulders" and "Crab". Target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern corresponds to 1,004. The outlook for this pair is still "bearish", so, correction should be used for the opening of short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2_08_30_37.png On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the downtrend which increases the risk of implementation of reversal pattern "Splash and reversal with acceleration". However, until the quotes rise above the upper boundary of the last downward channel, the "bears" will retain their control over the market. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2_08_30_52.png Recommendations: SELL 1,073 SL 1,0785 TP1 1,05 TP2 1,004 SELL 1,076 SL 1,0814 TP1 1,05 TP2 1,004. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11398 |
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Morning brief for November 22, 2016.
11/22/2016 EUR/USD rose to 1.0650 on the session helped by news that Angela Merkel will run for a fourth term as German chancellor. The dollar has weakened due to the fall of 10Y US Treasuries yields. On Monday, ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t offer support to the euro as traders got convinced of the possibility of QE extension in December. Today’s rise of the euro is more profit-taking after large moves. IF US statistical releases coming on Wednesday are strong, the dollar will likely reclaim its leadership against the euro. Today’s focus will be on the US existing home sales and Richmond manufacturing index. An earthquake and tsunami in Japan quickly sent USD/JPY down to 110.61 from 111.00 on Monday. Earlier this morning the pair was nudged up above 110.80 by the news indicating minimal damage and no injuries. AUD/USD popped up to 0.7400 on the latest session. We don’t expect great moves from this pair today as there are no data releases/significant events that could weigh on the Aussie’s growth. GBP/USD soared above 1.2500. The pound is now one of the best performers against USD since the election. The UK economic and political fundamentals are rather robust. It looks like GBP in crosses like EUR/GBP can be a gainer. So, if there is a further downside, you may buy on the dip of this currency pair. Today traders will be watching for the UK data on the net borrowing of the public sector and CBI industrial order expectations. The forecast indicates a narrower budget deficit than it used to be last month. Oil climbed to $50 as investors bank on the output cut after the OPEC meeting. Iranian Oil Minister said it’s “highly probable” OPEC will strike a deal at the talks. Libyan OPEC Governor said that discussions went well leaving the group’s Vienna headquarters on Monday evening. USD/CAD sank to 1.3383 as crude inched higher. Now the US dollar is trying to regain its momentum. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11399 |
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GBP/USD: testing the upper boundary
11/22/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2410/20; resistance – 1.2520, 1.2490. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2420; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2610. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of Senkou Span B. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(43).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11400 |
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AUD/USD: correction in Tenkan-Kijun range
11/22/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7360; resistance – 0.7440. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7440; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7320. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the range of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(50).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11401 |
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USD/JPY: on the 6-W highs
11/22/2016 Technical levels: support – 110.60, 109.90; resistance – 111.40, 111.90. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 111.90; SL — 112.10; TP1 — 110.60; TP2 — 109.90. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is an overbought market and all lines of Indicator Ichimoku are horizontal. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(61).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11402 |
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EUR/USD: "Diamond" at the low
11/22/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0565, which led to the current consolidation. Also, it’s likely to see a reversal pattern. If it confirms, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0673 - 1.0710. If a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.0636 – 1.0600 as a local bearish target. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the closest support at 1.0565 and the local downtrend. Moreover, we’ve got a “Diamond”, which was confirmed by two “Pennants”. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.0673 – 1.0710 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have an achievement of the 55 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11403 |
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GBP/USD: bullish "Pennant"
11/22/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png We’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern, so the price faced a resistance at 1.2476. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621. If a pullback from this area happens, then bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2476 – 1.2439. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png Bulls found a resistance at 1.2486 – 1.2507, so the price is consolidating. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2591 in the short term. If we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11404 |
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Key option levels for Tuesday, November 22th
11/22/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11406/EURUSD(69).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 58 061 ? + 103 433 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0633; 1.0661; 1.0688; 1.0705 Closest support levels 1.0595; 1.0575; 1.0542; 1.0494 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0595, with target points at 1.0575 and 1.0542 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0633 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0661 and 1.0688 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11406/GBPUSD(65).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 136 ? + 185 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2498; 1.2525(16?); 1.2565; 1.2608 Closest support levels 1.2450; 1.2423; 1.2403; 1.2381 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2450, with target points at 1.2423 and 1.2403 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2498 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2525 and 1.2565 USD/JPY {IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11406/USDJPY(64).png[/IMG] Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 935 ? + 421 ? Closest resistance levels 111.14; 111.33; 111.69; 111.88 Closest support levels 110.30; 110.07; 109.79; 109.46 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 111.14, with the target points at 111.33 and 111.69 Alternative scenario Moving below 110.30 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 110.07 and 109.79 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11406/USDCAD(60).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 478 ? + 55 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3446; 1.3495; 1.3535; 1.3591 Closest support levels 1.3396; 1.3376; 1.3349; 1.3312 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3446, with the target points at 1.3495 and 1.3535 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3396 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3376 and 1.3349 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11406 |
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Goldman Sachs’ trade ideas for 2017
11/22/2016 USD forecasts 2017 is promising to be auspicious for the US dollar with the fiscal stimulus, immigration rhetoric and more protectionism spurring inflation rates and offsetting monetary policy tightening. The greenback should have a good advantage in light of the incoming political reshufflings in Europe, ongoing uncertainty over the Brexit process and potentially ground-shaking Italian referendum. The main risks to this forecast are the ECB monetary policy tapering and a delay in triggering Article 50 to start the actual Brexit. Trump win will send yuan down China’s currency is under threat of depreciation in relation to USD. Analysts from Goldman Sachs advise buying the 12-month non-deliverable forward contract. The US dollar is expected to hit 7.07 yuan and then 7.30. Bet on the emerging market currencies The GS’s strategists recommend buying an equal-weighted basket of the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, Indian rupee, South African rand against the South Korean won and Singapore dollar. Some of the relatively high-yielding currencies look worn out after the US election amid the selloff of EM assets, making a good time for long positions. Goldman is short on South Korean won and Singapore dollar as this is another bet on weaker China. Buying opportunities in stock market The analysts recommend choosing emerging market stocks, which are less vulnerable to China’s economic slowdown. According to the bank, investors should consider buying Brazilian, Polish and Indian markets (an equal-weighted, currency unhedged basket composed of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Total Return Index, the Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index, and the NSE Nifty 50 Index targeting a gain of 20% and exiting if the position falls 10% from the present levels). US Treasuries promise high spreads Analysts advise investors going long 10-year US bonds. The spread between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields is expected to rise to 230 basis points; if it falls to 160, you should exit the market. Strategists are also recommending a version of the same trade for inflation in Europe using swaps. The fundamental reasoning for rising inflation rates in Europe: firm energy prices, the end of austerity measures, central banks might start tolerating the above-target inflation. Based on Bloomberg's article More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11407 |
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USD/CAD: fundamental and technical analyses
11/22/2016 USD/CAD slumped to 1.3383 as contradictions within OPEC started to fade away pushing the oil crude prices higher. US dollar gained momentum on the Asian session and leapfrogged the Loonie. We see more USD upside going forward mainly on the monetary policy divergence (high probability of the Fed’s hike in December vs. BOC’s neutral monetary stance skewing at the “dovish” side) and uncertainty over Trump’s trade policy. The election of Republican nominee increased the likelihood of Canadian economic underperformance next year. Yesterday US President-elect released a video laying out actions he will take on his first days in office, including the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This may weigh on the Loonie in the foreseeable future (especially at the end of January, when Trump becomes the US president). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11408/Donald.jpg In the short-term, CAD will likely be affected by the oil prices and Canadian statistical releases. Rising Canadian 5-year bond yields will allow Bank of Canada to stay on hold for a while. Today traders will be watching for the monthly retail sales data from Canada which should offer support to the Canadian dollar. The upbeat releases can move USD/CAD downwards to the nearest support at 1.3316 (38.2% Fibo retracement from the May 3 low), 1.3337 (located against 200 4H MA). Alternatively, tomorrow’s data releases from the US (if there are strong) can push quotes higher towards the nearest resistance lines at 1.3437 (100 4H MA), 1.3481 (50 4H MA). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...ADDaily(4).png https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%D0%B9(15).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11408 |
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EUR/USD: correction going to move on
11/22/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH4.png There’s a reversal “Doji” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average line soon. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH1.png The 34 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” on this line. However, a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the current local correction is likely going to be continued. In this case, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible bullish target. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11412 |
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USD/JPY: "Shooting Star" pushing correction lower
11/22/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH4.png The price is consolidating above the nearest “Window”. At the same time, we’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “High Wave” patterns, but both of them haven’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the closest Moving Average shortly. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, but this pattern doesn’t have a confirmation. So, there’s an option to have another test of the support nearby. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH1.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Also, there’re bearish patterns such a “Tweezers”, a “Tower”, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star”. In this case, the current correction is likely going to move on towards the 55 Moving Average. If this line acts as a support, bulls will probably try to deliver another high. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11413 |
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EUR/USD: wave [iii] going to move on
11/22/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2152756001.png The market has been declining since a triangle in wave (Y) ended. Therefore, wave [iii] is likely going to be continued. In this case, we should keep an eye on -2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2152756002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a double zigzag in wave (iv). Previously, an extension in wave (iii) was formed. So, bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave (v) of [iii] in the short term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11414 |
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USD/CHF rising inside multiple impulse waves
11/22/2016 USD/CHF rising inside multiple impulse waves Next buy target – 1.0200 USD/CHF has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the powerful resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.0000 and 0.9950 (this resistance zone has been reversing the price from May, as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) of the primary impulse wave ? from June. USD/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0200 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11415 |
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USD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance level 1.3560
11/22/2016 USD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance level 1.3560 Next sell targets - 1.3350 and 1.3270 USD/CAD continues to fall after the earlier downward reversal from the powerful resistance level 1.3560, which also reversed the price sharply in the middle of this month. The previous downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3560 created the strong daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star (the middle candle of which is also the single-candle Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Shooting Star). Having recently created the second consecutive Evening Star near the resistance level 1.3560 - USD/CAD can be expected to correct down to the next sell target at the support level 1.3350 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.3270. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11416 |
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EUR/USD & FOMC Minutes: The ground is ready for a rate hike!
11/23/2016 Today at 19:00 GMT we’ll have the FOMC minutes, which are from November’s meeting, where the central bank decided to keep unchanged interest rates, before the US elections. Traders will be looking for further hints about a possible rate hike in December’s meeting, as current Fed’s rhetoric remains unchanged: the case for raise rates has continued “to strengthen”. No major surprises are expected, but we’ll be aware of how market’s volatility will act after the release. Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H1 chart is sideways in a short-term, but if we check the overall picture, the pair is still weak across the board, with a price action consolidated below the 200 SMA. If we see a slump below the 1.0572 price zone, then further weakness toward the 1.0488 area is highly expected, while a rebound at current levels should take EUR/USD to test the 1.0735 level. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...RUSDH1(10).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11417 |
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NZD/USD: kiwi decided to test the "neckline"
11/23/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes came back to the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. Rollback from the nearest resistance or from the lower boundary of the upward trading channel will allow us to open short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...3_08_41_23.png On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there are the expanding wedge and the "Shark" patterns. The transformation in the "Shark" pattern into the 5-0 pattern will lead to the growth of quotes towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from the CD-wave. Then, there might be a rollback followed by the restoration of the downtrend (especially if the "bulls" manage to test the resistance at 0.7315). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...3_08_41_39.png Recommendations: SELL 0,7085 SL 0,714 TP 0,68 SELL 0,7145 SL 0,72 TP 0,68 SELL 0,7195 SL 0,725 TP 0,68. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11418 |
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GBP/USD: pound is coming back to its previous positions
11/23/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, the "bears" was trying to return to the borders of the medium-term consolidation range at 1.21-1.231, but failed to do so. As a result, the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern was formed. A successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel can lead to the downfall of quotes towards 1.215. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...3_08_41_52.png On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the retest of the diagonal resistance in the form of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel can be used as a buying signal. In this situation, short positions should be opened from 1.2365 and 1.23 levels in the direction of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern. Recommendations: SELL 1,2365 SL 1,242 TP 1,215 SELL 1,23 SL 1,2355 TP 1,215. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11419 |
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Morning brief for November 23, 2016
11/23/2016 EUR/USD pinned to 1.0622 level only a few points above its one-year low at 1.0564. Much credit must go to the US bond yields that keep rising after the US presidential election. Another factor that contributes to the US strengthening is a divergence between the Fed intending to raise rates in December and ECB maintaining its steady hand and continuing its ultra-loose monetary policy. Today watch for the manufacturing PMI releases coming from the Eurozone and for the bunch of the US data (namely, new home sales, revised UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations). Also, we will get FOMC meeting minutes, but it shouldn’t bring much volatility to the chart as the market has already got used to the idea of the Fed’s rate hike in December. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...124_eud000.jpg AUD/USD was one of the greatest performers on the session, moving up to 0.7430 level from yesterday’s 0.7400. The main reason of the recent Aussie’s appreciation – rising commodity prices (iron ore futures rose 8%; copper move up towards its 16-month high). The bid for AUD was despite the disappointing data on Q3 construction work. Analysts see more AUD strengthening on the back of rallying commodity prices. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is at its highest level since June. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect commodity prices to rise next year in the light of the boosted manufacturing activity around the world GBP/USD fell yesterday towards the 1.2410 support ahead of the budget update from British Minister Philip Hammond. Now the pair is consolidating along the 1.2415 level (100 4h MA). Strategists expect some modest infrastructure spending and housing stimulus, but nothing that could change expectations of a weaker economy ahead of the “Brexit” talks. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...equer-Phil.jpg USD/JPY’s move should be subdued today as the Japanese have a holiday today. The pair is trading above 111.00. There can be some more USD upside going forward if today’s statistical data from the US is strong. USD/CAD edged down below 1.3440 in the course of the Asian session. Oil prices are steady at $49 for the present moment as the market hung in wait for more news from OPEC’s Vienna headquarters. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11420 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
11/23/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The price is consolidating above the nearest support at 1.0565. Also, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0550 – 1.0522 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.0636 – 1.0673. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a flat, which is taking place between the 55 Moving Average and the closest support at 1.0565. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0550 – 1.0522 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0600 – 1.0636. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11421 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: "Triple Top" led to decline
11/23/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png There’s a “Double Top” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.2379. So, bears are likely going to move on towards the next support at 1.2352 – 1.2309. If a pullback from this area be on the table, there’ll be an option to have another upward movement in the direction of a the nearest resistance at 1.2476 – 1.2556. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which led to the current decline. The price faced a support at 1.2399, so there’s a local bullish correction on the way. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.2351 – 1.2309 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11422 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bearish trend may continue
11/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0610; resistance – 1.0650. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0600; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0570; TP2 – 1.0510. Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...rusdh4(56).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11425 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: on support of Tenkan and Kijun
11/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2405, 1.2370; resistance – 1.2490. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2420; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2610. 2. Sell — 1.2360; SL — 1.2380; TP1 — 1.2310; TP2 — 1.2230. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(44).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11426 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/USD: aussie finished the local correction
11/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7390, 0.7360; resistance – 0.7440. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7430/40; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7320. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud but there is a rising Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are above Kijun-sen; strong resistance near 0.7440. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(51).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11427 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: ahead of the UK Autumn Statement
11/23/2016 What is the Autumn Statement and why it’s so important? It's the Chancellor's second-biggest speech of the year after the Budget. Philip Hammond, the British the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will come to the House of Commons to reveal the state of the economy and outline the government's spending plans. When to watch? The Autumn Statement will be at 2.30 pm (Metatrader time). What to expect? Philip Hammond will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. The chancellor faces a difficult set of choices, with little wiggle room, given the still gloomy path ahead for the UK economy. So, this Autumn Statement is likely to be a cautious update to the government’s spending plans, most likely disappointing for the market awaiting a Trumpstyle splash of fiscal stimulus. New policies will probably be focused on helping out the JAMs (Just About Managing) and on the promotion of the business productivity. Also, the Government might lessen the degree of austerity (but this easing is expected to be rather moderate). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%D0%B9(16).png GBP/USD levels to watch TD waits for further GBP strength despite the expecting disappointment followed by the Autumn Statement. It favors tactical longs in the pound with an initial target of 1.2674 against support at 1.2365, but the primary trend remains bearish for GBP/USD overall. Lloyds Bank is also positive in relation to pound saying that the prices might test the resistance at 1.2445, followed by 1.2510, whereas on the downside, there are several supports located at 1.2350 and 1.2200. TB Bank Securities strategists believe that GBP will likely consolidate on the release. UOB is also neutral on the GBP/USD saying that the pair will likely be trading choppily in the range of 1.2300 – 1.2600 in the near-term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11428 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Wednesday, November 23th
11/23/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11429/EURUSD(70).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 75 164 ? + 32 336 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0644; 1.0665; 1.0687; 1.0722 Closest support levels 1.0615; 1.0596; 1.0562; 1.0512 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0615, with target points at 1.0596 and 1.0562 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0644 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0665 and 1.0687 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11429/GBPUSD(66).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 64 ? - 119 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2430; 1.2454/65; 1.2518; 1.2572 Closest support levels 1.2378; 1.2347; 1.2301; 1.2240 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2378, with target points at 1.2347 and 1.2301 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2430 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2454/65 and 1.2518 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11429/USDCAD(61).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 243 ? + 212 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3455; 1.3495; 1.3534; 1.3587 Closest support levels 1.3434; 1.3410; 1.3392; 1.3365 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3455, with the target points at 1.3495 and 1.3534 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3434 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3410 and 1.3392 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11429 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "High Wave" pushing price higher
11/23/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH4.png There’s a “Doji”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. The 13 Moving Average is acting as a resistance, so the price is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Engulfing” doesn’t have a confirmation, so right after the second test of the closest support bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance nearby. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH1.png The price is consolidating along the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “High Wave”, which has been confirmed enough. In this case, the pair is likely going to approach the nearest support line during the day. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11430 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.4300
11/23/2016 EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.4300 Next buy target – 1.4420 EUR/CAD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the powerful, long-term support level 1.4300 (which stopped the previous waves 2, (ii) and 4 and which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. Given the strength of the support level 1.4300 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD can be expected to correct up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4420. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 1.4200. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More; https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11431 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9900
11/23/2016 AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9900 Next buy target - 1.0100 AUD/CAD recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9900 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May, as can be seen below. The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone completed the previous minor correction 2, which belongs to the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from August. AUD/CAD is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11432 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: lot of bearish patterns
11/23/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH4.png We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “High Wave”, which both led to continue the current local correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “High Wave”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH1.png The price is consolidating on the one-hour chart. The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support. If we see a pullback from this line, the pair is likely going rise, but then bears will probably try to reverse the market. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11433 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Review on the book of Bill Williams
11/23/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...4076_thumb.jpg “Trading chaos” is not just a book that describes one of the numerous ways of trading. It’s an exhaustive guidance for novice traders. Bill Williams compares his writing with the fundamental esoteric teaching because it contains not only actual trading strategies and techniques but also helps traders to cognize their inner world, their mind and the actual nature of financial markets. The first chapter reveals the principles of the market’s operation. According to Bill Williams, the market like everything else in the universe always follows the path of the least resistance. Its movements are irrational, chaotic, but even in the market’s turbulences and unorganized fluctuations the logical patterns can be found. The task of the trader is to identify these patterns and suck advantage out of them. In the following chapters, the author draws a map of trading. Virtually, he describes the life journey of a trader from being a novice to becoming an expert trader. Williams tries to convince his readers that trading skills can be obtained only through the constant practice and learning, through trial and numerous errors sometimes correspondent with financial losses. In the end, having raised a good many of bumps, trader becomes a real expert who not only understands but also feels the market. Williams’ description of the life of an experienced trader reminded me the Noble Eightfold Path of Buddhist who goes through numerous practices and sufferings to attain nirvana. In “Williamsonian” version, nirvana is obtained experience that promises foolproof trades with big profits. Besides this esoteric stuff, the book contains valuable information about Elliott waves, MACD indicator, fractals and some other technical indicators. If you’re not really interested in psychology and revelation of market’s behavior, you can delve into reading all these technical things and upgrade your trading skills. DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11434 |
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