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GBP/USD & UK Retail Sales for October: Will the bulls gain strength?
11/17/2016 Today at 09:30 GMT we’ll have the British version of Retail Sales for October, as the markets are waiting for an increase to 0.4% from 0.0% revised. Because of current GBP health, it will be interesting to see how was the consumer spending in the UK, which posted a weaker-than-expected number in September. Also, Brexit headlines continue to bring some volatility to the British Pound across the board. Our technical view for GBP/USD at H1 chart is still bearish, but the pair is struggling to consolidate again above the 500 SMA. If the data comes above the expectations, we can see a breakout higher of the 1.2484 level, in order to perform a rally towards the 1.2538 level. However, if the UK retail sales data is weak, one could expect a decline to test Tuesday’s lows. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...BPUSDH1(9).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11341 |
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EUR/USD: "Hammer" points to local correction
11/17/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...711eurusdD.png We've got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. However, if a confirmation arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH4.png There’s an unconfirmed “Hammer” and a “Window”, which is still open. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver another low. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11342 |
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USD/JPY: "Window" going to act as a resistance
11/17/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...711usdjpyD.png There’s a possible “Doji” at the local high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to achieve the closest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH4.png We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami”, which both have a confirmation. Meanwhile, the upper “Window” is likely going to act as a resistance. If so, the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11343 |
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EUR/USD: bears just can't stop
11/17/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0673, so we’ve got a local upward correction. However, bears are likely going to move on. In this case, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.0636 as a possible intraday target. Also, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png It’s likely that a kind of a bearish pattern is developing on the one-hour chart. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.0636 shortly. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0710 – 1.0744. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11344 |
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GBP/USD: price going to reach nearest support
11/17/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.2556 and the Moving Averages. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2330 in the short term. If a pullback from this line be on the table, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png The previously broken uptrend is acting as a support. So, the price is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2399 – 1.2351 soon. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2556 afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11345 |
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NZD/USD: qiwi is testing the neckline
11/17/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes went out from the upward trade channel and from the triangle. It is the first signal of a reversal of the trend. If the "bears" test the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" pattern, the quotes may fall towards 0.68. There is 127.2% target of the "Perfect butterfly" pattern. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_18_51.png On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern has been fulfilled. It can be transformed into 5-0 pattern. Correction towards 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels can be used for opening short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_19_07.png Recommendation: SELL 0,7176 SL 0,7231 TP 0,68. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11346 |
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GBP/USD: pound saw a Shark
11/17/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, a break of support at 1.2365 can lead to the activation of the "Shark" pattern. Its target 88.6% is located at 1.2125. Resistance is located near the 1,248 mark. If it is tested successfully, the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern will be formed. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_11_38.png On the GBP/USD hourly chart, if quotes go out from the short-term upward trading channel and test the support at 1.2365, the prices fall down towards 1.2125. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_11_55.png Recommendation: SELL 1,2365 SL 1,242 TP 1,2125. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11347 |
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Morning brief for November 17, 2016
11/17/2016 USD/JPY spearheaded on Wednesday following the BOJ’s open market operation. The Bank committed itself to buy unlimited amounts of JGBs of specific maturities in September. Today we witnessed the first shot of the BOJ’s yield control policy that resulted in the immediate weakening in the yen. After the BOJ’s operation USD/JPY rolled back from 109.7 (its 5-month high) to 108.54. Now the pair is trading around the 109.00 mark. EUR/USD nudge up earlier this morning to 1.0711 after setting an 11-month low of 1.0666 overnight as US bond yields started to fall. Today’s focus will be on the bunch of statistical data coming from the US (building permits, monthly CPI, Core CPI, unemployment claims, manufacturing index) and on speeches of Fed’s senior officials (Fed’s Char Janet Yellen, Dudley, Brainard). While listening Ms. Yellen, pay attention to her comments on the market's election result reaction - including a rise in government bond yields; her views on potential economic effects of Trump's expansionary fiscal policies and assessment of the risk of a sharp rise in inflation rates. And, of course, we will be waiting for the confirmation of the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates in December. The possibility of the incoming Federal Reserve’s interest rates hike now is pricing at 94%. NZD/USD was a gainer of the last trading session. It reached 0.7106 having risen from its early low at 0.7033. AUD/USD is consolidating at 0.7480 level. Earlier today we had several data releases from Australia: there were a positive employment change and a lower unemployment rate. But we must admit that changes in figures were negligible, so they didn’t offer support to Aussie. USD/CAD slipped some points in the course of the session. The support line at 1.3416 (100-hour MA) braced the fall of prices. At the present moment, quotes are paving its way towards1,345o level located near the (50-hour MA). It seems that CAD didn’t pay heed to the oil prices drop overnight. Brent oil futures missed some points as soon as EIA report showed a significant build up in the US oil inventories. The data release outweighed hopes for a producers’ output cut following Russia’s comments about a possible meeting with Saudi Arabia. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11348 |
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EUR/USD: waiting the correction
11/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0680/90; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0790. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0700; SL — 1.0680; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0790. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support under 1.0700 and oversold market. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...rusdh4(55).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11349 |
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GBP/USD: bullish trend may continue
11/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2420; resistance – 1.2520, 1.2610. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of the Cloud and Senkou Span B. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(42).png https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(42).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11350 |
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USD/JPY: bulls are stopped by 110.00
11/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 108.70, 107.90; resistance – 109.30, 109.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 109.00; SL — 109.20; TP1 — 108.50; TP2 — 107.90. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Tenkan-sen and Senkou Span; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance levels. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(60).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11351 |
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Eurozone political risk calendar and EUR/USD forecasts
11/17/2016 EUR/USD was weakening for eight consecutive days following the US presidential election outcome. Many analysts believe that the euro will continue to move downwards with some reoccurring rebounds. There are several fundamental reasons for such forecast: widening the US – Eurozone interest rate differentials; an anticipation of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policies in par with a faster pace of Fed hikes; the ECB will favor the euro weakening until it becomes disorderly; troubled political circumstances in the euro area. Just look at the European political calendar. You will see that next year and the end of this year will be rather turbulent and grotty for the Eurozone. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%BE%D0%BA2.jpg The pair rose today on the slowing pace of the US Treasuries yields. It could be viewed as a short-term correction. The overall sentiment for the euro is still “bearish”. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11352 |
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Key option levels for Thursday, November 17th
11/17/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11355/EURUSD(67).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 32 483 ? + 93 958 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0746; 1.0776; 1.0794; 1.0817 Closest support levels 1.0670; 1.0651; 1.0621; 1.0578 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0670, with target points at 1.0651 and 1.0621 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0746 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0776 and 1.0794 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11355/GBPUSD(62).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 228 ? + 480 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2497; 1.2527; 1.2547; 1.2570 Closest support levels 1.2446; 1.2426/11; 1.2387; 1.2350 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2446, with target points at 1.2426/11 and 1.2387 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2497 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2527 and 1.2547 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11355/USDJPY(61).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 2 991 ? + 1 607 ? Closest resistance levels 109.34; 109.65; 109.99; 110.22 Closest support levels 108.79; 108.55; 108.14; 107.87 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 109.34, with the target points at 109.65 and 109.99 Alternative scenario Moving below 108.79 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 108.55 and 108.14 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11355/USDCAD(58).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 489 ? + 522 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3446; 1.3466; 1.3486; 1.3515 Closest support levels 1.3394; 1.3373; 1.3342; 1.3303 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short (?) USD/CAD below 1.3394, with the target points at 1.3373 and 1.3342 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3446 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3466 and 1.3486 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11355 |
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Review on Kathy Lien's book
11/17/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...n_09162015.jpg If you want to know Forex market from tip to toe you should read Kathy Lien’s book “Daily trading & swing trading the currency market”. There is something for everyone and any kind of trading emergencies. With every Lien’s chapter you become wiser because… The first chapter of the book will tell you everything about Bretton Woods financial system, George Soros, Asian financial crisis, the launch of the euro and Plaza Accord, so as you could flaunt your knowledge at some fancy cocktail dinner. The next chapter will unveil a secret of some high-profile market prophets so as you could forecast currency fluctuations by yourself. The third chapter will remind you of time differences so as you trade at right period of time to increase the profitability of your bets. In the subsequent chapters, Kathy Lien will teach you how to build your own trading plan and share some technical and fundamental strategies with you. The final chapter is perhaps the most valuable as it tells us about the unique characteristic of each major currency pair (what are the drivers of a certain currency pair, which economic releases should be watched to unravel its movement, when it can experience great fluctuations). So, if you want to know all these things, read “Day trading” book from cover to cover and become a real trading guru. DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11356 |
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AUD/NZD under bearish pressure
11/17/2016 AUD/NZD falling inside the minor impulse wave Next sell target – 1.0470 AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the minor impulse wave 3 from the start of October. The active wave (iii) started when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 1.0660 (lower boundary of the strong resistance zone, which has been reversing the price from May). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.0660 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. AUD/NZD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 1.0470 (which reversed the pair at the start of this month). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11357 |
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AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave 2
11/17/2016 AUD/USD falling inside minor corrective wave 2 Next sell target - 0.7440 AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor corrective wave 2 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7800 and 0.7730 (which resistance zone has been reversing the price from April). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. AUD/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the strong support level 0.7440 (forecast price for the completion of the active minor correction 2 and the low of the previous wave (2) from September). [IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11358/AUDUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Nov-17_1307_PM_(1_day).png[/IG] More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11358 |
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Fundamental analysis for GBP/USD
11/17/2016 GBP/USD rose mainly on the upbeat retail sales report released earlier today. As soon as the High Court announced its decision on the legality of “Brexit” traders warmed to sterling having stopped to sell it disorderly. Now the market awaits a decision of the Supreme Court to confirm their “bullish” sentiments towards GBP. Morgan Stanley believes that the “Brexit” process might be delayed as the UK government may need to pass the Great Repeal bill before triggering Article 50. It should take lots of time as the law-making process in the UK usually, proceed at snail’s pace. Next week traders will keep in focus the Autumn Statement. According to Financial Times, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. This may send the pound down. Some analysts, however, believe that the market’s reaction to the Autumn Statement should be limited, as it is already aware of the negative impact of “Brexit”. For example, BNP Paribas is still long GBP/USD targeting 1.2924. According to BNPP’s analysts, the pound has a room for the short-term appreciation with BoE maintaining its neutral monetary stance and with private sector’s anticipations of a higher inflation rate. But in the longer-term GBP/USD should fall again with the rising uncertainty over the US future and USD strengthening. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DDaily(25).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11359 |
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EUR/USD: two "Flags" in a row
11/18/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.0600 – 1.0572. However, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0673 – 1.0710. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png The price faced a support at 1.0616. At the same time, there’s a possible bearish pattern, so the pair is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0600 – 1.0572. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.0673 – 1.0710. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11360 |
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GBP/USD: bearish "Triangle"
11/18/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.2556 and the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2330 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to see a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a possible “Triangle” pattern here. So, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2399 – 1.2351. Meanwhile, there’s a chance to have an upward correction later on. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11361 |
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EUR/USD: bears going to reach support line
11/18/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...811eurusdD.png There’s a bearish trend on the Daily chart. Also, we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. However, there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction, but bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH4.png We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on the four-hours chart. Moreover, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. At the same time, if we see any bullish pattern, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11362 |
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USD/JPY: "Window" acted as support
11/18/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...811usdjpyD.png We’ve got a “Doji” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet, so bulls are still here. In this case, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance soon. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an option to have a bearish correction. [IVG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11363/1811usdjpyH4.png[/IMG] The last “Window” acted as a support. Also, we have a “High Wave” at the last low. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11363 |
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EUR/USD & Draghi Speech: Are we about to see a bottom in the Euro?
11/18/2016 Today at 08:00 GMT will speak the ECB’s president Mario Draghi from Frankfurt; the current location of the central bank’s offices. It should be interesting to see what will be the reaction from the ECB leader after CPI in the Eurozone and maybe we can hear something about Donald Trump’s victory as the new United States president. With that being said, Draghi’s speech could bring some volatility to the markets. Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at daily chart remains strongly bearish, as the pair already refreshed its lowest level in nearly one year. There is also a moving average crossover ongoing and eventually, the pair could plummet to test the support zone of 1.0561, which is a very strong barrier for sellers across the board. However, to the upside, if EUR/USD manages to break higher the 1.0641 level, then it can test the 1.0750 zone. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DDaily(27).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11364 |
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USD/CHF: Crab will show the way to bulls
11/18/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, after target on the previously formed long was fulfilled, "bulls" faced with the convergence zone. If they manage to test the resistance at 1.009 (78,6% Fibo level from XA wave), the transformation of "Gartley" pattern to the "Crab" pattern will open the way towards 1,077 for them. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_25_36.png On the USD/CHF hourly chart, correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel, the 23,6% level formed from the last "bullish" wave and target 88,6% in the "Shark" pattern should be used for the formation of long positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_25_49.png Recommendation: BUY 0,994 SL 0,9875 TP1 1,017 TP2 1,077. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11365 |
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USD/CAD: bulls continue their rally
11/18/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, after targets on the previously formed longs were fulfilled, "bulls" face with the resistance at 1.3572 (50% Fibo retracement level from the last long-term downward wave + target 161,8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern). A successful test of the bears' strongholds can lead to the continuation of the bulls' rally towards 1.369 and 1.384. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_30_58.png On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bulls" accelerate their pace. A breakout of resistance at 1,3575 will be a signal for opening long positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_31_14.png Recommendation: BUY 1,3575 SL 1,352 TP1 1,369 TP2 1,384. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11366 |
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Morning brief for November 18,2016
11/18/2016 USD/JPY surged above 110.55. The greenback was buoyed after Fed Chair Yellen confirmed that a rate hike could come “relatively” soon. Yesterday the BOJ launched an implementation of its yield curve policy buying JGBs to weaken the yen. Today the bank’s operations were renewed. Another factor that contributes to the strengthening of USD is the rise of the US Treasuries. PM of Japan Shinzo Abe and future US president Donald Trump are going to meet today. Traders will be watching for any comments from Trump on its policy in relation to Japan and other Asian countries. In the course of his election campaign he was repeatedly accusing Japanese and Chinese governments of currency manipulations threatening to impose tariffs on their imports. EUR/USD slumped to 1.0620, a low that the pair experienced a year ago. Today traders will be waiting for the ECP president Mario Draghi speech at the 26th European Banking Congress at 10:30 am (Metatrader time). Volatility is usually experienced as he speaks. AUD/USD slumped below 0.7370 on the Asian session mainly on the USD strengthening. NZD/USD fell as well. This week was rather “shaky” for New Zealand as it is struggling with damages after huge Monday’s earthquake. Statistics New Zealand did a great job. Its website is listing some of the delayed data that is not officially released (official data releases will commence from Monday). The retail sales report is in line with expectation (+0.9% prior +2.3%), but treat this result with caution until official figures surface. GBP/USD edged down below the support at 1.2420. Today’s session should be rather smooth for the pound. USD/CAD rose to 1.3582 (50% Fibo retracement level from January 2016 high). Brent oil futures fell to $46 mark hit by the US dollar’s strength. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11367 |
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GBP/USD weekly outlook for Nov.21-25, 2016
11/18/2016 GBP/USD fell this week mainly on the strengthening of the US dollar. On Tuesday, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney in his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee said that he expects the inflation rate to rise despite the weak report on the latest annual CPI. This makes us believe that Bank of England won’t recourse to easing measures in the near-term future. On Wednesday, we had good data releases on the UK labor market. On Thursday, the pound rose on the upbeat retail sales release and on the speculation, that “Brexit” might be delayed up to 2 years. Despite the decent statistical data coming from the UK, the pound failed to outpace the US dollar which continues to rise in relation to other major currencies. Next week on Wednesday traders will be watching for the Autumn Statement. It can have a negative impact on the pound as Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. On Friday, keep in focus quarterly releases of the inflation-adjusted GDP and preliminary business investment coming from the UK. Technically, GBP/USD has room for appreciation up to the nearest resistance lines located at 1.2435 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud), 1.2460 (50 MA on H4) and 1.2550. It is confirmed by the daily Stochastic which remains in the oversold territory. 100 MA crossed 200 MA on H4 and moved upwards. But the likelihood of the Fed’s December rate hike on the back of accelerating growth of the US economy should outweigh the pound’s attempts to grow and send quotes towards 1.2355, 1.2230 levels. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PUSDH4(12).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11369 |
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Key option levels for Friday, November 18th
11/18/2016 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11371/GBPUSD(63).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 91 ? + 140 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2437; 1.2466/78; 1.2510; 1.2532 Closest support levels 1.2420; 1.2390; 1.2369; 1.2336 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2420, with target points at 1.2390 and 1.2369 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2437 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2466/78 and 1.2510 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11371/USDJPY(62).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 4 034 ? + 1 234 ? Closest resistance levels 110.51; 110.93; 111.21; 111.54 Closest support levels 109.67; 109.36; 109.02; 108.52 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 110.51, with the target points at 110.93 and 111.21 Alternative scenario Moving below 109.67 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 109.36 and 109.02 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11371 |
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AUD/USD weekly outlook for Nov.21-25, 2016
11/18/2016 AUD/USD slumped to 0.7370 in the course this week following the sharp fall in iron ore prices and broader USD strength. Weak statistical data on the Australian wage growth and employment fell of the expectations contributing to the Aussie’s downfall. We see more AUD downside going forward on the back of the Fed’s rate hike in December, falling commodity prices and loosening RBA monetary policy. The nearest support lies at 0.7300. If commodity prices start rising again or the US statistical releases show some data distortions, Aussie may rise towards 0.7436, 0.7513 (200-day MA) resistance lines. Next week watch for the Australian existing home sales report and data on the inflation-adjusted value of the completed construction projects. US unemployment claims, revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations can also add some changes to the AUD/USD technical chart. On Wednesday, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting minutes. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DDaily(24).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11373 |
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AUD/CAD reached sell target 1.0000
11/18/2016 AUD/CAD reached sell target 1.0000 Next sell target – 0.9900 AUD/CAD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the parity (which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from August. The breakout of this support zone follows the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from June. AUD/CAD is expected to fall further in the accelerated minor corrective wave 2 toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9900. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 1.0000. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11374 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/JPY reached buy target 77.70
11/18/2016 NZD/JPY reached buy target 77.70 Next buy target - 79.00 NZD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ? from the end of June. The active wave 5 started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing from the support area lying between the support level 76.30 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of impulse 3. Having recently reached the resistance level 77.70 (previous buy target) - NZD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at 79.00 (target price for the completion of the active ABC correction ?). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11375 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
US dollar: outlook for Nov. 21-25
11/18/2016 US dollar showed another week of strong gains versus its counterparts. US dollar index opened with a gap up above 99.00 and reached 101.40, the highest level since 2003. The currency is testing the upper edge of the broadening formation seen on the monthly and weekly charts. The probability of the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike now exceeds 90%. Spiking US Treasury yields are the main driver of the market’s expectations. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen added to the demand for American currency signaling that the US central bank is close to raising interest rates. So far traders are thinking about a month-long horizon and favor the greenback. Data released in the US so far were mostly positive: retail sales showed the strongest performance in 2 years, consumer prices recorded the biggest increase in 6 months and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a 43-year low. Next week is unlikely to change the market’s perception much. The US will release existing home sales on Monday and durable goods orders on Wednesday. The market players will also watch the Fed’s November meeting minutes on Wednesday, although much has changed since the central bank discussed monetary policy at the beginning of the month. All in all, the market has pretty much found out what it wanted from Yellen’s comments. Liquidity will be lower on Thursday because the US will celebrate Thanksgiving Day. To sum up, we expect the greenback to remain supported, but warn you that as December rate hike is now almost fully priced it, the US currency will have less fuel to continue such rapid rally. Support is at 100.60, 100.00 and 99.00. Resistance is at 101.50, 102.00 and at the following big figures. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11376/US_dollar.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11376 |
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EUR/USD: outlook for Nov. 21-25
11/18/2016 It was a week of freefall for the euro. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at 1.0830 and slumped to 1.0600. It’s the longest ever losing streak for the single currency. The euro is losing to the US dollar as the Federal Reserve is now widely expected to raise interest rates in December. The ECB president, Mario Draghi, on the contrary, hinted that the Eurozone stimulus will last. Annual inflation in the euro area accelerated from 0.4% in September to 0.5% in October, but Draghi underlined that it remains far below the ECB’s objective. The region’s GDP growth was 0.3% in the 3 months from July through September, the same level of growth as was recorded in the second quarter of the year. German economic growth slowed down a bit. Another negative factor for the euro is rising political risk given many votes, which are scheduled in Europe. Next week we will once again hear from Mario Draghi as he will testify about the European Central Bank's Annual Report before the European Parliament on Monday. The euro area’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs for November will be released on Wednesday, while German Ifo business climate will be published on Thursday. Let’s have a look at the weekly chart. EUR/USD has reached 2015-2016 support line in the 1.0600 area. The euro has approached multiyear minimums. Next support is at 1.0500 and 1.0460. Resistance is at the previous support levels of 1.0685, 1.0740, 1.0800 and 1.0850. Traders will likely keep selling the euro on its attempts to recover. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DWeekly(3).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11377 |
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USD/JPY: outlook for Nov. 21-25
11/18/2016 The accelerated march of USD/JPY to the north continued. The pair rose above 110.00 boosted by the stronger dollar and advance in Japanese stocks, which showed good gains after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. The Topix index rose to the highest level since April. Japan’s Q3 GDP figures were surprisingly strong as it added 0.5% vs. 0.2% q/q. The nation’s economy expanded for the third straight quarter as exports recovered. However, with Donald Trump as the US next president, this export-led recovery looks fragile. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda warned that “risks to both economic activity and prices are to the downside" and said that the BOJ is ready to ease policy again if the economy loses the momentum to hit his price goal. The fact that Japanese central bank is buying more of shorter-dated bonds is also having a negative impact on the yen. Next week Japan will release trade balance on Monday, flash manufacturing PMI on Thursday and inflation figures on Friday. USD/JPY is approaching 50% Fibo retracement of the decline since November 2015 at 111.35. The next resistance is at 112.00. At the same time, if the pair fails to close above 55-week MA at 110.00, it may correct down to 108.50 (200-week MA) because of its overbought condition. The next support is at 107.50. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...YWeekly(5).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11378 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Bulls lost control over the market
11/21/2016 On the daily chart of gold, a breakout of the lower boundary of the medium-term upward channel has become a signal of the change of the trend. At the present moment, "bears" remain control over the market. A test of the support at $1210 (50% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last mid-term "bullish" wave) can send quotes towards $1150 (target 127.2% in the "Perfect butterfly" pattern). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_31_29.png On the hourly chart of gold, correction towards the lower boundary of the last upward trading channel and target 88.6% in the "Bat" inverted pattern can be used for opening short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_31_47.png Recommendations: SELL $1230 SL $1255 TP $1150. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11379 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: bulls accelerate their pace
11/21/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, after the target on the previously formed longs was fulfilled, quotes continued their rally towards 112.5. There is 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. At the present moment, "bulls" remain their control over the market. In such circumstances, it's better to use the strategy of buying on the pullbacks. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_25_38.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the "bulls" accelerate their pace. A breakout of the lower boundary of the short-term rising channel can send quotes towards108.9. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. If it is fulfilled, you can open long positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_25_57.png Recommendation: BUY 108,9 SL 108,35 TP 112,5. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11380 |
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Morning brief for November 21, 2016
11/21/2016 The US dollar extended its run of good luck against major currencies on speculation Trump economic policies might lead to faster monetary tightening. US Treasuries continue to rise. EUR/USD traded higher to 1.0610. Now the pair slid back from its morning high to 1.0580. Keep in focus the ECB president Mario Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament scheduled for 18:00 (Metatrader time). Traders will be watching for some comments from the president on the ECB’s bond-buying plans (will it be extended or not?). USD/JPY traded below 111.2, its highest level since May. Aussie hit a 4.5-month low of 0.7315 hardly showing any sign of recovery, Upbeat Japan’s trade balance data passed unheeded. GBP/USD is trading around 1.2340 level, having started off weakening in the early hours. NZD/USD edged up to 0.7023 at the beginning of the Asian session, then it retreated under pressure from the strengthening dollar. USD/CAD moved down to circa 1.3463. The Canadian dollar ceased to follow oil prices as their recent rally didn’t put new heart into Canada’s national currency. Oil prices rose on growing expectations that OPEC will find a way to cut production. Russian President sees a high probability of oil production cut, as numerous contradictions within OPEC started to fade away. According to the latest news, most OPEC members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on tits production volumes. If not Draghi’s speech, this day would be lacking market drivers, as there are no significant statistical releases, important events scheduled for today. Some good news that can support the euro in the long run Former Prime Minister Francois Fillon in the center-right primary leads the race to take on Marine Le Pen’s anti-European platform. Fillon’s candidacy is more appealing to voters who want neither a Sarkozy comeback nor Juppe’s softer approach on the economy and social issues. Angela Merkel will seek a fourth term as German chancellor. Despite the disapproval of her immigration policy, the majority of the German population is ready to vote for her party in the upcoming parliamentary election, according to the recent opinion polls. The win of Fillon and Merkel is associated with stability in the euro zone. The rise to power of far-right parties can lead to significant changes in Europe. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11381 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Monday, November 21th
11/21/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11382/EURUSD(68).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 96 364 ? + 112 944 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0630; 1.0662; 1.0691; 1.0709 Closest support levels 1.0582; 1.0560; 1.0527; 1.0480 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0582, with target points at 1.0560 and 1.0527 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0630 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0662 and 1.0691 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11382/GBPUSD(64).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 404 ? + 1 223 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2391; 1.2425; 1.2440/58; 1.2503 Closest support levels 1.2332; 1.2306; 1.2267; 1.2212 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2332, with target points at 1.2306 and 1.2267 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2391 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2425 and 1.2440/58 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11382/USDJPY(63).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest - 777 ? + 448 ? Closest resistance levels 111.14; 111.48; 111.71; 111.98 Closest support levels 110.51; 110.30; 110.00; 109.83 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short (?) USD/JPY below 110.51, with the target points at 110.30 and 110.00 Alternative scenario Moving above 111.14 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 111.48 and 111.71 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11382/USDCAD(59).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 333 ? + 234 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3521; 1.3554; 1.3587; 1.3633 Closest support levels 1.3448; 1.3421; 1.3387; 1.3340 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3448, with the target points at 1.3421 and 1.3387 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3521 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3554 and 1.3587 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11382 |
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EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support
11/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png Bears faced a support at 1.0600, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0550 – 1.0522. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0636 – 1.0673. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between a support at 1.0561 and a resistance at 1.0636. If we see any bearish pattern later on, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0550 – 1.0522. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11383 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: broken "Triangle"
111/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.2330, so we’ve got a local correction. At the same time, bears are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2226 as a possible intraday target. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png The last “Triangle” has been broken, so the pair faced a support at 1.2330. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.2253 during the day. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.2399 – 1.2429. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11385 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Forecasts from banks for main currency pairs
11/21/2016 Banks rush to your aid! If you trust the opinion of high-profile currency specialists, this article will be useful for you. There are some trading recommendations for the upcoming week. Goldman Sachs The GS’s strategists admit that the greenback moved a lot, but in their view, the US currency has a room for even further appreciation. Justification: the possibility of fiscal stimulus raises upward pressure on inflation; Trump wants to make some reshuffling in the Fed to make it more hawkish. The market is pricing 64 basis points in the multiple tightening in 2017. Moreover, through end-2019 the market is pricing 130 basis points. The GS’s 12-month forecasts for EUR/USD – 1.00 and for USD/JPY – 115. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...ro-bills-1.jpg Deutsche Bank A combination of economic and political risks can contribute to a further USD strengthening against the euro. In the short-term, there are some factors that can hold the Treasury yields at their present levels or even nudge them higher. Justification: 1. Brexit and Trump win contributed to the rise of global political risk. The next risk trigger may appear if Marin Le Pen wins the French presidential elections. 2. There are worries over the global negative output gap. The world still has a disinflationary bias, despite the worldwide spread of the protectionist sentiments. DB maintains short EUR/USD from 1.0750. Danske Danske expects USD/JPY to rise toward 115.50 due to the recent increase in the US Treasuries. There is a strong correlation between the weakening yen and rising 10-year bond yields, as investors tend to move their assets to the US from Japan. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1....1910x1000.jpg Morgan Stanley is heedful to advise this week. It suggests its outlook for all major currencies. USD MS maintains its USD bullish view. The Fed may lay aside its easing measures with upcoming fiscal stimulus from the US government. In addition, the rising US Treasuries support the greenback. EUR EUR/USD is mainly driven by the US dollar. The pair can move lower to 1.04 by the end of the year. The euro can remain strong on the crosses as the euro zone banks are not prone to increase foreign lending enough to compensate for the current account surplus. However, euro zone political elections can undermine the EUR strengthening, if far-right parties manage to come to power. GBP MS maintains its neutral outlook in relation to GBP/USD and notes that the pound has become vulnerable to any fluctuations in the bond yields. Traders will be watching the UK Autumn Statement this week. MS doesn’t expect lots of fiscal expansion from the UK government, but an additional rise in gilt issuance can spur yields faster than in the US offering support to the sterling. CAD Trump’s intention to renegotiate NAFTA sent CAD downwards. But the Canadian dollar is not as vulnerable as Mexican peso mainly due to the recently signed Canada-EU comprehensive economic and trade agreement. Thus, traders should watch for the actual implementation of trade policy and incoming Canadian data to unravel the further way of USD/CAD. For the present moment, MS remains its bullish view for this currency pair. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...ianDollar4.jpg AUD MS is bearish AUD/USD. Aussie weakened on the back of the USD strengthening and rising US Treasury yields. Rising metals prices, however, offered some support to AUD. China’s property sector is at risk of the growth slowdown in the nearest future, it may lead to the reduction of iron ore imports from Australia. Australian labor market deteriorated due to the slowing housing market and weak investments in the mining economic sector. All these factors weigh on the AUD’s attempts to growth. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11386 |
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