Weekly Market outlook and analysis By acfx.com

[rohit]

Weekly technical outlook for EURUSD as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM

The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 290 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.28829 and 1.34629.

As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place July 2011 is still intact. This can be seen by the negatively layered 8 and 21 period sma. Price has however corrected off the January 2012 lows into the most recent Fibonacci sell zone ambush area where EURUSD has found strong resistance. This has coincided with a bounce off the linear channel and a bearish divergence of the stochastic near an overbought level. The current price action could be seen as signs that EURUSD is about to put in a weekly lower swing high. The 1.2900/1.2930 would appear to be a key near term level to watch.

The previous weeks candle traded lower but managed to eventually close higher. The moving averages are trying cross positively but price action is framed tightly within the linear channel.

As we are in an established weekly down trend a conservative view of the current price action would be to participate in any sell off down to support of 1.2930, 1.2624 and 1.2328.

The alternative scenario is a break of the downward sloping regression channel with an initial target of 1.3667. Any rotation into an uptrend will need price action formation so as to confirm a significant change in sentiment.

Weekly technical outlook for GBPUSD as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 254 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5587 and 1.6095.
As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place June 2011 may be about to reverse. This can be seen by an attempt of the negatively layered 8 and 21 period sma having reversed to a positive layering. This has coincided with a break of the downward sloping regression channel and a bounce off the upward sloping trend line and price support at 1.5234 and 1.5465. However the bearish divergence in the stochastic is a potential warning of continued market negativity with this indicator rolling over in an overbought area.
The previous weeks candle traded higher and closed above the linear channel. If price can trade above the previous swing high of 1.59915 then the next target of 1.61516 comes into play. This being the value two swing highs back.
The long scenario may be…
 As per our previous post, a pull back to around the 1.5500/1.5400 area before a further upward swing to the downward sloping trend line. This scenario seems less likely after lasts weeks’ higher close.
 As per our previous post, a very minor pull back that holds above or within the upper areas of the regression channel before breaking higher. This scenario looks to be in play.

The alternative short scenario is for a break of support at 1.5465 and a pull back to the upward sloping trend line.

Weekly technical outlook for USDCHF as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 210 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.89431 and 0.93631.
As per our previous post, The weekly bear trend that was put in place 2001 shows no sign of reversing with the price action continuing to make a series of lower highs and lower lows. EURUSD has also bounced off monthly resistance and within a Fibonacci ambush zone. This coincides with the weekly sma’s to crossing over. This would imply that USDCHF is putting in place a lower swing high prior to a continuation of the down trend. However price is extended from both the regression channel and downward sloping multiyear trend line together with the stochastic in the oversold area. This should be considered when making any decisions.
The previous week’s candle traded higher but eventually closed lower. Price should trade and at least close within the lower levels of the previous three weeks ranges so as to rein enforce the short scenario. Ideally, a break of the previous swing low of 0.89307 should occur.
As per our previous post, The short scenario is a continued break down to with the initial target being the 0.8300/0.8000 Fibonacci area with further targets being support at 0.7064. An attempt to reach the regression channel bottom should not be ruled out.
As per our previous post, the alternative long scenario is for a break of resistance at 0.9636 with a move up to the downward sloping trend line. A short term level to watch being is if price trades above the previous weeks high of 0.93347.


Weekly technical outlook for USDJPY as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 1.3466. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 82.1074 and 84.80.
As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place in June 2007 has seen significant action in that there was a concerted attempt to break the 1995 lows of 79.75. USDJPY and is now in a Fibonacci ambush area just beneath a regression channel top that coincides with a bearish stochastic divergence. One point of interest is that USDJPY has broken a multiyear down trend line.
The previous week’s price action closed above the linear channel. This could indicate that USDJPY is in the process of rotating into a multi week uptrend. However, it would not be unexpected if price bounces off the channel top before forming a higher swing low off prior support.
As per our previous post, the short scenario is a move under the 79.75 with an initial target of 75.56.
As per our previous post, there are a few long scenarios being…
 A weekly close within the past two weeks range before breaking higher. Price actually closed above the ranges.
 A bounce off 79.75.
 A move to the moving averages before breaking higher.
 A bounce off the top of the down trend line before breaking higher.

For a major reversal to happen, USDJPY would need to break through the highs of the downward sloping regression channel.

[rohit]

Weekly technical outlook for EURUSD as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed higher and managed to pull with it the 8 and 21 sma’s into a positive cross over. The price action was however more or less contained within the downward channel. Although one would expect a bounce off the channel top, a break of this channel should not be ruled out. Technically however, EURUSD is still in a technical down trend as the price action is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. The stochastic is also diverging negatively near an overbought area. Furthermore there is broad resistance at the 50%/61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3420/1.3620 and price resistance at 1.3667.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 270 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.29988 and 1.35388.
Long scenario
Break of the downward sloping regression channel with an initial target of 1.3667.
Short scenario
As we are in an established weekly down trend a conservative view of the current price action would be to participate in any sell off down to support of 1.2930, 1.2624 and 1.2328.


Weekly technical outlook for gbp/usd as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed higher and the 8 and 21 period sma’s has now crossed positively. Furthermore, the break of the downward channel is still intact. However the bearish divergence in the stochastic is a potential warning of continued market negativity with this indicator firmly in an overbought area.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 246 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5623 and 1.6115.
Long scenario
Long above 1.59915 this being the previous swing high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 1.56020 this being the previous swing low.


Weekly technical outlook for USDCHF as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed lower and the 8 and 21 sma’s are negatively crossed. This would imply that USDCHF is putting in place a lower swing high prior to a continuation of the down trend. However price is extended from both the regression channel and downward sloping multiyear trend line together with the stochastic in the oversold area. This should be considered when making any decisions.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 195 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.88825 and 0.92725.
Long scenario
Long above 0.93347 this being the previous swing high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 0.89307 this being the previous swing low.



Weekly technical outlook for USDJPY as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed lower but within the range of the previous candle. The 8 and 21 sma’s continue to be positively crossed. As per our previous post, USDJPY has broken a multiyear down trend line and made an attempt to break a major down channel. This could indicate that USDJPY is in the process of rotating into a multi week uptrend. . However, it would not be unexpected if price first bounces off the channel top before forming a higher swing low off prior support. USDJPY and is now in a Fibonacci ambush area just beneath a regression channel top that coincides with a bearish stochastic divergence.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 1.4569. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 81.1361 and 84.0499.
Long scenario
Long above 84.173 this being the previous high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 81.962 this being the previous low.

[rohit]

Weekly technical outlook for EURUSD as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed higher and managed to pull with it the 8 and 21 sma’s into a positive cross over. The price action was however more or less contained within the downward channel. Although one would expect a bounce off the channel top, a break of this channel should not be ruled out. Technically however, EURUSD is still in a technical down trend as the price action is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. The stochastic is also diverging negatively near an overbought area. Furthermore there is broad resistance at the 50%/61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3420/1.3620 and price resistance at 1.3667.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 270 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.29988 and 1.35388.
Long scenario
Break of the downward sloping regression channel with an initial target of 1.3667.
Short scenario
As we are in an established weekly down trend a conservative view of the current price action would be to participate in any sell off down to support of 1.2930, 1.2624 and 1.2328.


Weekly technical outlook for gbp/usd as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed higher and the 8 and 21 period sma’s has now crossed positively. Furthermore, the break of the downward channel is still intact. However the bearish divergence in the stochastic is a potential warning of continued market negativity with this indicator firmly in an overbought area.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 246 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5623 and 1.6115.
Long scenario
Long above 1.59915 this being the previous swing high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 1.56020 this being the previous swing low.

Weekly technical outlook for USDCHF as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed lower and the 8 and 21 sma’s are negatively crossed. This would imply that USDCHF is putting in place a lower swing high prior to a continuation of the down trend. However price is extended from both the regression channel and downward sloping multiyear trend line together with the stochastic in the oversold area. This should be considered when making any decisions.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 195 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.88825 and 0.92725.
Long scenario
Long above 0.93347 this being the previous swing high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 0.89307 this being the previous swing low.



Weekly technical outlook for USDJPY as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed lower but within the range of the previous candle. The 8 and 21 sma’s continue to be positively crossed. As per our previous post, USDJPY has broken a multiyear down trend line and made an attempt to break a major down channel. This could indicate that USDJPY is in the process of rotating into a multi week uptrend. . However, it would not be unexpected if price first bounces off the channel top before forming a higher swing low off prior support. USDJPY and is now in a Fibonacci ambush area just beneath a regression channel top that coincides with a bearish stochastic divergence.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 1.4569. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 81.1361 and 84.0499.
Long scenario
Long above 84.173 this being the previous high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 81.962 this being the previous low.