[rohit]

Weekly technical outlook for EURUSD as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed higher and managed to pull with it the 8 and 21 sma’s into a positive cross over. The price action was however more or less contained within the downward channel. Although one would expect a bounce off the channel top, a break of this channel should not be ruled out. Technically however, EURUSD is still in a technical down trend as the price action is making a series of lower highs and lower lows. The stochastic is also diverging negatively near an overbought area. Furthermore there is broad resistance at the 50%/61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3420/1.3620 and price resistance at 1.3667.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 270 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.29988 and 1.35388.
Long scenario
Break of the downward sloping regression channel with an initial target of 1.3667.
Short scenario
As we are in an established weekly down trend a conservative view of the current price action would be to participate in any sell off down to support of 1.2930, 1.2624 and 1.2328.


Weekly technical outlook for gbp/usd as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed higher and the 8 and 21 period sma’s has now crossed positively. Furthermore, the break of the downward channel is still intact. However the bearish divergence in the stochastic is a potential warning of continued market negativity with this indicator firmly in an overbought area.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 246 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5623 and 1.6115.
Long scenario
Long above 1.59915 this being the previous swing high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 1.56020 this being the previous swing low.


Weekly technical outlook for USDCHF as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed lower and the 8 and 21 sma’s are negatively crossed. This would imply that USDCHF is putting in place a lower swing high prior to a continuation of the down trend. However price is extended from both the regression channel and downward sloping multiyear trend line together with the stochastic in the oversold area. This should be considered when making any decisions.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 195 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.88825 and 0.92725.
Long scenario
Long above 0.93347 this being the previous swing high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 0.89307 this being the previous swing low.



Weekly technical outlook for USDJPY as at 26th March 2012
Overview
Last week’s candle closed lower but within the range of the previous candle. The 8 and 21 sma’s continue to be positively crossed. As per our previous post, USDJPY has broken a multiyear down trend line and made an attempt to break a major down channel. This could indicate that USDJPY is in the process of rotating into a multi week uptrend. . However, it would not be unexpected if price first bounces off the channel top before forming a higher swing low off prior support. USDJPY and is now in a Fibonacci ambush area just beneath a regression channel top that coincides with a bearish stochastic divergence.
Possible range
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 1.4569. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 81.1361 and 84.0499.
Long scenario
Long above 84.173 this being the previous high.
Short scenario
Short beneath 81.962 this being the previous low.