Tracking the EUR/USD pair : 20.03.2012

[RLFX]

Date: 19.03.2012 Time: 17:39 Rate: 1.3250

Daily chart

Last review

At the moment the price has broken the 1.3077 price level, the last support level, and it seem that there is nothing that will stop it on its way to the “Wolfe waves” pattern target, meaning the cross of the price with the line connecting points 1 and 4, this cross will occur around the 1.2900 price level.

Current review for today

On our last review we spoke about the “Wolfe waves” target when the price was already in the area, but it stopped around the 1.3000 support level and from there we can see three days of moving upwards. We can see that the price corrected the last downtrend (red broken line) by going upwards to the 1.3484 price level and creating an ascending price structure. This price structure is still valid since the last move downwards did not break the last low on the 1.2975 price level. Therefore, breaching the last peak on the 1.3484 price level will continue the uptrend. On the other hand, if the price will break the 1.2975 without reaching the 1.3484 price level, it will be possible to assume that this is the end of the current uptrend.

You can see the chart below:



4 Hour chart

Date: 19.03.2012 Time: 20:23 Rate: 1.3242

Yesterday’s review

It is clearly seen how the 1.3082 price level which is used as a neckline of the “One in, one out” pattern been broken by the price without special strength. The price has checked carefully how this level change positions from a support level to a resistance can and only after few returns to this level it was possible to confirm that the price is headed south towards the pattern target on the 1.2967 price level.

Current review for today

With a developed imagination (not always good without being cautious) we can see a possibility for a creating of the complex “Head and shoulders” pattern- the meaning of the word complex in this context is that shoulders are not built in symmetric way but in a little more complicated than that. Usually it takes the same time to build the second shoulder as it is for the first (sometimes the second shoulder is shorter), therefore the rectangle that limits the left shoulder was copied to the right and its length is the same. That is all with the assumption that the 1.3220 price level will not be breached in a proven way and in case it will happen, the price will probably reach the last peak around the 1.3490 price level.

You can see the chart below:



Important announcements for today:

09.30 (GMT+0) GBP – CPI (Yearly)
12.30 (GMT+0) USD – Building Permits
21.45 (GMT+0) NZD – Current Account

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