Date : 14th December 2022.
Market Update – December 14 – FOMC Day after Inflation weakens again.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
*The USD Index dived to a six-month low of 103.50, from 105.00 following the cooler CPI data and trades at 104.00 now. US Stocks rallied on open as high as +3.85% but lost most of their gains by close (+0.30-1.01%). Yields tanked (10-yr lost 11 bp) as Treasuries rallied but closed at 3.501%. Commodities rallied (Gold & Copper hit 6-mth highs and Asian markets remain bid and the USD down 1.5% vs Yen, and 6-mth lows vs Euro, Sterling & Kiwi and 3-mths lows vs. Aussie. BTC spiked to 18k before, news that Binance withdrawals had hit $1.9 bln in 24 hours.
UK CPI also weakens (10.7% vs 10.9% & 11.1% last month) more than expected but the wider RPI (which is what many wage settlements use and a cause of the wide spread strike action) dipped but was hotter than expected at 14%.
*EUR – rotates over 1.0600 at 1.0625 now, ahead of ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – sank to 134.60 lows from over 137.70 yesterday and 150.00 in late October. Strong Tankan data and Machinery Orders help JPY strength.
*GBP – Sterling rallied over 1.2400, and traes at 1.2350 following good Inflation data and ahead of an expected 50 bp rate hike from the BoE tomorrow.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied closed higher again yesterday but gave up most of their opening gains. – US500 +29 (+0.73%) 4019, and retakes 4000. Big movers included MRNA +19.63%, META +4.74%, GooG & AMZN +2.5%. FUTS trades at 4029 now.
*USOil – Rallied to $76.00 and trades at the key $75.00 now after a surprise build in US crude inventories against forecasts of a decline.
*Gold – Spiked as high as $1824.45 and trades at $1808. Can the $1800 handle hold?
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue from Binance & SBF but the weaker USD saw a peak over $18k, before a crash to 17.3k and bounce to 17.7k now. More FTX collapse fallout – Canada bans crypto leverage, crypto margin trading.
Today – “nothing else matters” FOMC Policy Decision & Press Conference. Before that – EZ Ind. Prod., US Export/Import Prices, NZD GDP. Speech from ECB’s Elderson.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.37%) fell from highs over 88.00 yesterday to test the 87.00 tzone today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 38.10 & falling, H1 ATR 0.163, Daily ATR 0.879.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets
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