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Old 31-03-2021, 23:04
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KostiaFM KostiaFM is offline
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Default Re: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD. March 31, 2021 | Pound sterling is corrected after the release of GDP data

The British pound is showing some strengthening today against the dollar after the publication of a block of economic statistics. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3766.

UK GDP in the IV quarter of 2020, according to the final data, grew by 1.3% q/q, while the forecast of an increase of 1.0% q/q. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y. Such indicators can be considered positive, since by the end of a rather difficult year, the British economy was still able to show good results.

At the same time, the property price index in Great Britain in March fell by 0.2% m/m after an increase in February by 0.7% m/m. This is worse than forecasted, but it can be explained by the cold weather this spring and the continued lockdown. In-store prices continued to fall in March and fell 2.4% y/y due to massive discounts, special offers and discounts.

In the evening, you should also pay attention to the data from the United States. The dollar may receive strong support from the ADP statistics, which should show an increase in employment by 380 thousand. And this is a very good result, indicating a confident recovery of the labor market in the United States. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will continue to rise to the area of ​​local highs near 1.3660.

EUR/USD. 31.03 | Euro recovers after falling to 1.1700

Yesterday, the euro slipped even more, falling to the level of 1.1700. The fall was again driven by a jump in Treasury yields amid successful US vaccinations and a faster economic recovery. Back in early January, rates on 10-year bonds were 0.91%, and in March the figure reached 1.77%. The widening yield spread between US and German securities is also an additional negative factor for the European currency.

However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is showing some correction: the asset quotes rose to the 1.1735 area. The entire spectrum of risky assets was supported by the publication of China PMI indices. The index of business activity in the service sector in March rose to 56, points against the forecast of growth to 51.9. In the industrial sector, the indicator was 51.9 against expectations of 51.3 points.

Additional support for the pair was provided by the data on employment in Germany. The indicator came out better than the forecast, showing a decrease in the number of unemployed by 8 thousand.

Tonight, attention should be paid to the speech of US President Joe Biden, during which the head of the White House will present a new program of economic assistance in the amount of $1.5-3 trillion.
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