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effexx 09-08-2011 07:57

09.08.2011
 
Panic sell continues
GOLD reaches 1775

Black Monday seems to be followed by a bleaker Tuesday. Wall Street saw one of its worst falls when world markets
continued its free fall. Investors desperately leaving stocks looking for other outlets. Treasuries soared while GOLD broke new records reaching 1785 in Asian trade.

President Barack Obamas assurances that US was still a triple rated country which honoured its obligations did not calm markets. While the President spoke, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and SAP fall to new lows and Gold soared, demonstrating the worst political confidence crisis since autumn of 2008. No big expectations for Fed Chief Bernanke’s speech today.

Fundamental facts, not words and political oratory are needed in order to convince world’s investors that US is not in for a second dip recession. European stock indices today are pointing steeply down reminding investors that also the Euro-zone is in a mess. China’s inflation figures neither gave any comfort illustrating that this is a worldwide crisis. Yesterdays 7,83 % stock market loss yesterday just added to the fact that this a worldwide financial crisis might be deeper than experienced in 2008.

Yen and Swiss francs are still favoured currencies. Currencies in commodity and oil producing countries under pressure. with Australian dollars in free fall. Downward trend expected for Rubles and Norwegian krones (NOK). Oil has fallen 20 USD a barrel in one week. Also agricultural commodities like corn and wheat are falling.

effexx 10-08-2011 07:20

Markets on 10.08.2011
 
DOW jumps 4 %
on FED statement

DOW Jones bounced back at the end of yesterday’s session and added 3,98 % after more closely digesting the American Federal
Central Bank, FED, statement to leave interest rate unchanged to 2013 in light of continued sluggish economic growth.

DOW initially fall into negative territory, but FED made the trick that President Obama’s statement on Monday did not obtain.
It calmed nervous markets and regained some confidence after the last ten days turmoil.

All the US indices went strongly up with Nasdaq in the driver’s seat with a 5,29 % jump. The Asian markets followed suit and European futures are pointing up. China contributed to a more optimistic sentiment by presenting a monthly high record trade surplus beating by far expert’s predictions.

Commodity markets stabilized. Gold is steady around 1750. Oil stronger on better market sentiments trading at 104,47. 5 % up from yesterday’s inter day bottom on 99,50. FED’s statement was no favor to the Dollar which is falling against most currencies. YEN and Swiss franc still investors favored currencies. USD – EURO is trading at 1.4348.

Markets have been given sigh of relief. But sluggish economic growth and sovereign debt worries shall soon enough be back at the top of the economic agenda.

effexx 11-08-2011 07:21

Market update 11.08.2011
 
Stocks back in red
Gold passes 1800

The relief rally in stocks lasted some few hours before markets were back in red.

Yesterday good night sessions in Asia was followed by opening optimism in Europe.

But after some few hours trading the European exchanges were back in deep red.
Speculation on possible downgrading this time of France’s credit rating dominated
along with renewed credit fears and worries of slower economic growth.

Wall Street saw a new terrible session. Asian exchanges picked up somewhat
in the second half, but ended down approximately 2 %.

This led to new records in Gold prices which surpassed record 1800. Adjusted for
inflation Gold has still future potential. The 900 level reached in 1979 equals
2500.

USD was stable towards EURO – 1.4215. YEN and Swiss Franc continue up while
Australian dollar made a little come back in view of more optimistic forecasts
for commodities. Oil fall back in Asia, but Brent is now back on 106 levels.

The markets seem to have stabilized somewhat during the last hours with futures
for USA pointing up in the morning.

effexx 12-08-2011 07:17

12.08.2011
 
Stocks make come
back in market rally


Stock globally made a strong comeback yesterday with markets rallying in late European sessions. Dow Jones
Sky-rocketed with 3,9 % and Asian markets ended in positive territory after days with consecutive big losses.

Investors demonstrated bigger risk appetite and sent Gold down close to hundred dollars from its peak on
1815. Gold stabilized in Asia and is now trading at 1865. Funds went from treasuries into stocks. Strong correction
in Swiss Franc after central bank intervention. Dollar is slightly stronger against most currencies except YEN.

The rally came on the back drop of slightly better employment figures from the US. Job claims for June was down from 402 000
in May to 395 000. US trade balance figures for June did, however, show a decline in export and record deficit.

France, Spain and Italy have along with Asian markets introduced prohibition against short selling
echoing measures taken during the 2008 crisis. Measures are taken in effort to stabilize bank stocks which have been in free fall.

Oil is up from its lows with Brent trading on USD 107 signalizing some optimism for growth., but volatility
and nervousness are just around the corner indicating that the stock rally shall prove short lived.

effexx 16-08-2011 09:56

16.08.2011
 
The week has started on a positive note with market stabilizing after last weeks turmoil. Europe followed
the upward trend from Asia. Dow Jones added 1,90 % and Nasdaq 1,88 %. Asia continues slightly up
this morning.

Guru investor Warren Buffet is on a buying spree, and declared stocks at sales at present prices.

While some of the nervousness, at least for now, seems to be have lost its grip grip in the United States, new
crisis loom around the corner in Europe. Euro-bonds which would have given at Euro zone a necessary
injection and an insurance against sovereign defaults is not on the agenda for the Merkel -
Sarkozy meeting today.

Amidst the uncertainty Euro rose to its highest two weeks level against USD; 1.4450. USD is also loosing
ground towards other currencies while gold is up from yesterday’s 1745 now trading at 1765.

effexx 17-08-2011 06:23

Market update - 17.08.2011
 
Eurobond is not
at agenda for now


Merkel and Sarkozy yesterday agreed on stronger financial and fiscal bilateral co-ordination, but stopped short of
introducing the Eurobonds many observers had hoped for. The markets reacted negatively. Dow and Nasdaq fell
on continued debt crisis fears in Europe. Shanghai was up, but other Asian markets ended flat. Europe is set to open
down. US futures are slightly up.

Dollar is gaining ground against EURO trading at 1.4385. Gold is close to all time high on 1785 while
oil prices are steady on Brent USD 109 levels. Swiss franc is down fourth day in row following Central
Bank intervention and rumours that Swiss authorities want to see the Franc pegged to EURO.

effexx 18-08-2011 06:22

18.08.2011
 
Gold continues
outshining markets


Gold continues to be the preferred safe haven reaching an end of the day record 1795 yesterday close to the inter day high, 1817, set on August 8th.

Gold is up for a sixth straight month outshining all other metals and equity classes. No end seems to be in sight. Predictions for 2011 is set to 2000, and Standard chartered bank has 5000 in sight for 2020 as Gold is seen as the best hedge against inflation.

Why is money continuing to flow into Gold? The debt crisis in Europe, uncertainties regarding economic growth in the United States
and a consequent slow down in Asia dominate. India with 9 % inflation is by far the biggest buyer of Gold. Central Banks all over the world are storing gold, and the Russian and Mexican central banks are predicted to be the big buyers in 2012.

No wonder that gold shines.

After three – four positive days stock markets in US and Asia ended flat or down. Futures for Europe and opening in US are down.
Oil prices stable. Brent trading around 110. US/Euro is 1.44 and Yen and CHF continue upward.

effexx 19-08-2011 10:23

19.08.2011
 
Global markets
fear recession


Global markets ended in deep red yesterday after one of the worst sell off's markets have seen. Germany was down a record 5,92 %. Sell off's continued with DOW and Nasdaq falling steeply and in Asia where the KOSPI was especially hard hit. European stock futures are pointing down. Gold reached a new record high on 1851. Oil prices are tumbling. Brent trading at 106 down 5 $ since yesterday.

After a couple of optimistic days panic has again stricken the markets. In spite of some good economic data from the US, investors have already started to price in a double dip recession. Markets were in blood red yesterday and futures are pointing down.

The Merkel-Sarkozy Summit in Wednesday did nothing to calm investor’s nerves in Europe. Worries on a sovereign debt crisis in is increasing by the day. The future of the Euro is coming on the top. Investors don’t seem at all convinced that politicians and central bankers shall find a way out. Markets then tend to jump miles ahead of governments creating a serious confidence crisis.

effexx 23-08-2011 07:03

23.08.2011
 
GOLD rush among
investors continue


Five days after Gold broke 1800, the precious metal smashed through the 1900 level with investors panicking into Gold as
the preferred safe haven. 1908 represents a temporarily new record set during last night’s Asia trading.

At the same time analysts wonder whether the flight into Gold may represent a new bobble
which it is better to get out before it is, too, late. They argue that Gold is not an industrial metal, and advise
that this might be the right time to consider oil, silver or palladium as an alternative.

Stock markets in Europe and US continued the stabilizing, slightly upward trend seen at the beginning of the week in Asia
making optimists think that the bottom is reached for now. KOSPI (South Korea) is the winner in Asia this
morning.

CHF and Yen continue to be preferred currencies with EURO/USD trading at 1.4350, waiting for whether Bernanke
and his FED shall come up with a new stimulus package. In Germany Merkel defiantly stated that markets shall
not be allowed to dictate her policies.

effexx 30-08-2011 06:52

30.08.2011
 
Optimism rules
in strong markets


The optimistic sentiments which have ruled the markets since Bernanke’s Friday speech continued
through yesterday’s Wall Street sessions with Dow adding an impressing 2,26 % and Nasdaq up 3,32 %.
The Asian stock exchanges are up, and European futures are indicating a new good day on European
stock exchanges.

Asian markets are up four day in row. A contributing factor was the strong American consumption figures
Monday night. Hong Kong was the winner with a gain on 2,2 %. European markets expected to follow
suit. Healthy rebound in Russian market with a stronger ruble.

Oil prices are higher with Brent trading on 112,26. Better stock markets have had a negative effect on Gold
which fall back below 1800. Investors are taking profit and moving into equities. Dollar is falling. Euro/USD
trading at 1.4525. Market optimism has boosted smaller currencies. Norwegian krones (NOK) with
strong currency reserves is close to a year high. NOK/USD 5,34.

effexx 31-08-2011 12:15

31.08.2011
 
Mixed sessions
Gold recovers


After a mixed session were markets tried to fight off negative news as reduced US consumer optimism Dow Jones tipped into positive territory and ended slightly up; 0,18 % and Nasdaq (0,55 %) following suit. Asian markets were mixed with the South Korean KOSPI gaining after a 15 % free fall during August. European markets dipping between red and blue.

Gold made a strong recovery with 1835 after last days profit taking and some renewed optimism for equities. The US index for
consumer sentiment, poured some cold water back in the head of investors thinking that the bottom is reached and the worst over in stock markets. Oil prices are up. Brent is trading on 114 this morning, the highest level seen for weeks.

Dollar gained ground against the EURO at 1.4429 telling it’s story of an unsettled sovereign debt and looming bank
crisis within the Euro-zone. Finland’s insistence on firm collaterals before extending any helping hand to Greece, continues to
rattle market confidence. A stronger Yen tells that safe haven currencies are back in mood.

After a couple of days respite be prepared for increased currency and market volatility for the rest of the week.

effexx 01-09-2011 07:05

01.09.2011
 
Chinese industry stagnates
raises fear of stagflation

World markets have seen a temporary stabilization during the first three trading days of the week. European markets
ended up, while US struggled before DOW and Nasdaq finished in blue for the fourth consecutive day. In Asia the South Korean,
Kospi, jumped 2,5 % gaining back some of the steep losses from first weeks of August.

The Euro is loosing ground. Euro/USD is again down at 1.4355. Yen somewhat weaker towards the dollar at 76,83. Gold
at 1822, loosing USD 12 from yesterday’s top. Oil prices are up with NYMEX touching USD 90 level and Brent trading
at 114.

August industry production figures for China came in slightly better than July, but confirmed China’s challenge in finding a balance
between growth and inflation. With stagnating growth in US and Western Europe, Chinese export is struggling with
weaker export without domestic demand picking up.

In spite of China being more independent from a possible double dip Western recession, a stagflation in US and Europe with slower growth combined with inflationary pressure shall have a strong negative effect on China and other emerging markets.

effexx 02-09-2011 12:53

02.09.2011
 
Pessimism back with
Asian markets in red


Pessimism ruled in Asia Friday morning with falling markets in nervous waiting for unemployment figures
coming out of the US later during the day. The Japanese Nikkei was down 1,4 % followed by 1,3 % both in
Shanghai and Hongkong. South Korean Kospei is falling 1,3 %. In US both Dow (- 1,03 %) and Nasdaq (-1,30 %)
were down.

Sluggish economic growth, sovereign debt worries in Europe and global fears for stagflation in the form of a
combination of weak growth and higher inflation, seemed to be back on the top of the agenda superseding the
more positive sentiments which have given markets a lift during the last days. US Unemployment numbers
which is one the best indicators of the health of the economy is expected to stay at 9,1 %.

Gold and old prices are steady while EURO continues to loose against the Dollar at 1.4243. Expect big
turbulence in late afternoon trading both in Gold and currencies if the unemployment figures come in
lower than expected.

effexx 05-09-2011 06:36

05.09.2011
 
Recession fears scare
global financial markets

US unemployment figures sent new shivers through global financial markets on Friday renewing fears for a double dip recession. Unemployment stayed at 9,1 %, missing to add a single new job in August.

US stock markets plummeted. Dow lost 2,20 % while Nasdaq dipped 2,58 %. European markets were in free fall. Asia markets have fallen steeply during the night and Europe is expected to follow suit during to-day’s trade. US is closed for Labor Day.

Gold rebounded strongly and reached 1890 during Friday’s night trade, stabilizing around 1880 in this morning’s trade. Silver as well strongly up to 43,30. EURO/USD Is at 1.4150. Oil prices are loosing ground on weaker demand expectations.

EURO’s down trend is expected to continue. Western European leaders seem unable to get their act together. Merkel lost her sixth
regional elections in row campaigning on her handling of the sovereign crisis; leaving the electorate confused and bewildered.

effexx 07-09-2011 06:41

07.09.2011
 
Positive Asia-session
following weaker YEN



All the major Asian indexes rallied this morning probably as a result of a weaker YEN trading at 77,25 against USD. Major companies as Toyota, Nissan and Hundai rose sharply on better export expectations. Gold fall back from 1910 peak yesterday and traded on 130 – 1850 range. After yesterday’s steep falls in European and US market, today’s futures are up indicating a good opening in Europe. Euro/USD somewhat stronger on 1.4050.

Switzerland has with immediate effect decided to peg the Swiss Franc to Euro diminishing its attractiveness as safe haven. With YEN weaker following days of Japanese central bank interventions, investors spotlight is now on smaller currencies as Norwegian and Swedish krones along with Australian dollars. Australia delivered stronger economic growth numbers for August than expected.

The sovereign debt crisis continues to create shivers on both sides of the Atlantic and in Asia where the Chinese markets also rose this morning after several days decline. Sovereign debt and slow US growth continue to create fears for a double dip recession. Deutsche Bank’s Ackermann warned that present financial and economic signals equals similar alarm warnings seen prior to the 2008 crisis, giving a clear indication that the bumpy markets are with us to stay.

effexx 08-09-2011 06:01

08.09.2011
 
New stimulus package
expected from Obama


A new stimulus package on USD 300 billions is expected when President Obama today is addressing a joint session of Congress. Tax cuts along with infrastructure investments and financial encouragements for companies hiring unemployed workers
are the ordained medicine for getting the US economy out of a looming recession.

The indicated initiatives have been well received in Asia. A stronger US economy is seen as necessary for a continued strong Asian export. Australia presented disappointing growth numbers this morning which led to a fall in the Aussie dollar. EURO/USD is trading at 1.4062 prior to the rent decision of European Central Bank (ECB) later today. Gold at 1828 is picking up from last day’s low. Forecasts predicting 50 % rise in Gold for 2012. Oil prices steady with NYMEX at 89,50 and Brent hovering towards 116.

Yen continues to slide; 77,70 against USD. Increased pressure on Norwegian (NOK) and Swedish (SEK) krones expected during the next days as investors look for new opportunities.

effexx 12-09-2011 06:58

12.09.2011
 
EURO under
hard pressure


The EURO continued its downward slide in Asia this morning trading at its lowest level for months against the USD: 1.3536
amidst Greek default speculation. Euro/USD has fallen from 1,41 levels since the midst of last week.

After Greece postponed it’s early September meeting with the controlling troika from ECB (European Central Bank), IMF (International Monetary Fund) and EU (European Commission), markets have been ripe with rumors that Greece would mishandle its promised obligations leading to a no payment of the September tranche. This shall for all practical purposes mean a technical Greek default.

Germany tired of Greek promises is playing hard ball threatening to bail out it’s own banks banks with a strong Greek debt exposure and leaving Greece to leave the Euro. Such a step shall, however, have unpredictable and grave consequences for the whole EURO-zone. It seems therefore unlikely that any of the involved EU-parties shall permit this to happen in the short run. A more likely scenario is an orderly default, payment of the September tranche an preparations for Greece leaving the Euro in a couple of years time.

In the mean time the currency unrest is supposed to continue with Euro/USD testing in some month’s time its bottom 1,19 level. Gold is keeping steady at 1855. Oil prices sliding with Brent at 1.1150. Future for the stock markets both in Europe and US down.

effexx 13-09-2011 06:47

13.09.2011
 
Weak EURO regains
some of its losses


The EURO regained some its early steep losses after dipping to 1.3550 in yesterday’s inter day trading. Euro/USD is trading at at 1.3678 this morning, recovering somewhat. Oil prices are up 1 % with Brent close to 113. Gold has recovered from it’s low on 1815 trading at 1834. Stock futures for Europe are pointing up after yesterday’s onslaught hitting banks and financial shares especially hard.

After falling close to 20 % in 2011 European stocks continue to be highly volatile even more so than their American pairs. The sovereign debt in Greece and the fear for a default continue to create nervousness not only in Europe, but far beyond. Pessimism continues to rule the day. Amid rumors that China is buying Italian bonds, Italian Premier, Berlusconi, heads to Brussels to present his austerity package, keeping the fear for a Greek “development” in other Eurozone countries very much alive.

The future fate of the Euro continues to be on everybody’s mind. Forecasts point to a further weakening of EURO with a next test on low levels at 1.19 – 1.20 within a foreseeable future. YEN/USD has recovered trading at 77,03. GBP/USD is still below 1.60.

Expect currency volatility to continue during the week, giving traders new opportunities. Most observers seem to count on Greece’ willingness to follow up on austerity measures and troika demanded “reforms” to secure payment of September tranche. This should lead to a temporary strengthening of the Euro.

effexx 14-09-2011 07:42

14.09.2011
 
Greece unnerves
global markets

After a short spell of relief and as a reaction to the latest steep decline of the EURO, fear and nervousness again dominated global markets with Euro/USD trading at 1.3625. An emergency meeting is called between the prime ministers from Germany, France and Greece after Merkel assuring that Germany would not allow Greece to default.

It is expected that the two leading EU-countries, France and Germany, shall issue a strong warning to Greece to live up to its austerity and reform promises; simultaneously stressing willingness to take what it costs to bail Greece out and save the Euro. A strong political message seems absolutely necessary to calm global markets overreacting on unsubstantiated news and speculative rumors.

After a mixed session in the US, Asian markets again dropped on fear of a banking collapse in Europe following a Greek default. In a key speech the Premier plaid down Chinese willingness to come to the support of striving European economies. He stressed that China with its huge reserves are ready to invest in Europe, only preconditioned that Europe got their finances in order.

The major French banks rebounded strongly yesterday after an initial 10 % tumbling on fears that the French banks no longer had USD available. The panic sell stresses the contagion effects a possible Greek default shall have on banks and the banking system. US Finance Secretary,Timothy Geithner, is going to talk tough to its European counter-parties at a meeting at the end of the week. But is Geithner in a position to talk tough? He travels when a record high 62 % of US citizens have lost belief in President Obama’s and his own handling of the US economy.

Oil prices are falling on expected slower growth. Gold is also down at 1820. US/Yen at 76,89.

effexx 15-09-2011 10:27

15.09.2011
 
Greece to remain
in the EURO-zone

Markets bounced back in a sigh of relief when France and Germany yesterday night gave Greece firm assurances that the country shall remain in the Euro-zone despite its serious debt problems. US and Asian markets rallied and futures in Europe are up. Euro is strengthened across the board. Euro/US at 1.3723 in morning’s trade.

The message from the Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou meeting is that regardless of a possible Greek default, Greece shall remain in the Euro. Papandreou gave his assurances that Greece shall stick to it’s austerity and reform promises, meaning that a green light has been given to payment of the critical September tranche.

The immediate fear for a Lehman Brothers type of crisis in Europe is over at least for now. The ECB yesterday gave strongly hurt French bank possibilities for USD credit. Chief EU-Commissioner Barbarossa at the verge of the mini-summit of Merkel – nSarkozy created some confusion with reiterating the desire of issuing Euro-bonds to debt stricken EU-members. That was immediately strongly rejected as a feasible opportunity by Germany.

While some optimism has been injected in global stock markets volatility continues with EURO and Yen somewhat stronger this morning. Oil prices are firm with NYMEX close to 89 and Brent at 112. Gold substantially down trading at 1808.

effexx 19-09-2011 07:11

19.09.2011
 
Asia mainly in
"a red zone"


Following the results of the American session on Friday: Dow has raised on 75,91 points (+0,66 %) - to 11509,09 points, S&P has grown on 6,9 points (+0,57 %) - to 1,216,01 points, NASDAQ has risen on 15,24 points (+0,58 %) - to 2622,31 points.

Trading session in Asia, excluding Japan, passing mainly in "a red zone": Hang Seng-2,1 %, Nikkei 225 +2,25 %, Shanghai Composite-1,41 %. Chinese stocks decrease to 14-month's minimum in connection with statements of the prime minister of the country Ven Tszjabao that the country government intends to take all necessary measures for control of inflation. Additional pressure is rendered by fears of investors as regards coming IPO will lead to reduction of demand for securities already being in circulation.

Precious metals mainly up in New York: gold - 1825,82 dollars/un. (+0,61 %), silver - 40,68 dollars/un. (-0,36 %), platinum – 1821.62 dollars/un. (+0,42 %). The prices for industrial metals are: copper - 8504,75 dollars/t (-1,87 %), nickel - 21168 dollars/t (-1,5 %), aluminium - 2358 dollars/t (-0,92 %).

Oil futures, bargain with descending dynamics: Brent - 111,32 dollars/barr. (-0,8 %), Light Sweet - 86,86 dollars/barr. (-1,4 %).

The future fate of the Euro continues to be on everybody’s mind. Decrease in currency pair promotes negative dynamics in the oil market.

From events it is necessary to allocate performance of the US president of B.Obama before the Congress with the offer on increase of the tax for citizens, whose revenue exceeds $1 million it is necessary to notice that this point in question is one of the main stumbling-blocks between democrats and republicans that doesn't add optimism on the markets.

effexx 20-09-2011 07:33

20.09.2011
 
Threat of a default of Greece
keeps the market in suspense


On Monday, on September, 19th, the basic American indexes were closed with fall, winning back threat of the Greek default. Players were focused on a situation in Europe, and all attention has been chained to conference regarding Greek debt. Investors tend to opinion that Greece declares itself insolvent, and the possibility of a default for the next 5 years exceeds 90 %.

Following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone down on 0, 94 % and was closed on a level of 11401,01 points, the index S&P 500 has fallen on 0,98 % to the level of 1204,09 points, and the index of hi-tech companies Nasdaq has reddened on 0,36 % to a level of 2612,83 points.

"Blue chips" were closed mainly in red territory. The greatest losses have caused a stir Bank of America (-3,32 %), JPMorgan (-2,81 %), American Express (-2,87 %), Alcoa (-3,26 %).

The price for futures for oil of LIGHT has decreased on $2,26 or 2,6 % to level of $85,70 for barrel. Oil has gone down in price to minimum for 3 last week’s marks in connection with fears of delay of global economy and reduction of demand for energy carriers in case of default approach in Greece. Price for BRENT is on level of 109.06 for barrel.

The price for futures for gold has decreased on $35,80 or 2 % to value of $1778,90 for ounce. Gold has fallen to its minimum price since August, 25th of final level owing to essential strengthening of dollar concerning the majority of competing reserve currencies.

Results of session of FRS which will begin today, in many respects will define the future of the world financial markets on mid-range term prospect. We will remind that investors would prefer to hear the announcement of a new round of quantitative softening QE3 from B.Bernanke.

effexx 21-09-2011 07:04

21.09.2011
 
EUR/USD:
the intrigue remains!


That fact, that negotiations between Greece and EU, ECB, IMF are tightened for a week, means that we are not going to see sharp growth of EUR/USD within next few days. Some encouraging moment for euro also can be that recently the financial markets, in particular currency, have ceased to react to a stream of negative news from Europe that besides assumes some improvement of a situation with appetite to risk (positively for EUR/USD).

From good news it is necessary to notice messages that Fitch has confirmed a credit rating of Germany at level ААА on September, 21st.

Situation in USA seems not to be better then in Euro zone. Yesterday the IMF has lowered forecasts on world economy growth on 2011 and 2012 years on 0,3 % and 0,5 % accordingly to 4 % for both years.

Following the results of session - Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 7,65 points or 0,07 % to level in 11408,66, Standard and Poor's 500 has decreased for 2,00 points or 0,17 % to a level 1202,09, and Nasdaq Composite has left in a minus on 22,59 points or 0,86 % and has reached a point 2590,24.

Gold company Newmont Mining has jumped up on 5,5 % on the basis of comments of Richard O’Briens’ - he has declared that gold till the end of 2012 can go up in price to $2000 for ounce. The world markets recently brought to us so many surprises that it can quite appear a reality much earlier, isn't it?

effexx 22-09-2011 07:09

22.09.2011
 
Markets negative to
Bernankes’ “twist”


FED’s chief Bernanke’s financial “Operation Twist” combined with a bleak assessment of the global economy had an immediate negative effect on markets. The US exchanges fall steeply, followed by ASIA with Shanghai as the biggest looser plunging 4,1 %. Futures for Europe and US are down. Markets are expecting to see the lowest numbers since July 2010.

In his speech yesterday Bernanke painted a bleak picture of a stagnating global economy which runs a great risk of a double dip recession. FED introduced simultaneously “Operation Twist” to invest 400 billion USD into buying short term treasury bills and reinvest into longer term treasuries and bonds with between 6 and 30 years maturity.

The market answered by selling securities and commodities. Even gold plunged to 1775 and oil prices (NYMEX 85 and Brent 108) under strong pressure on the prospect of lower economic growth. USD is stronger against all currencies EURO/USD trading at 1.3450. The fall in banking shares are continuing world wide with downgrading of major European banks. New Greek austerity measures are met with a new wave of strikes and social unrest.

effexx 23-09-2011 08:06

23.09.2011
 
Full panic grips
global markets


Global markets experienced its worst falls since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.
Dow Jones fall 3,51 % to 10 733 after a miserable session in Europe. Statements from the World Bank
and IMF (International Monetary Fund) renewed fears for a double dip recession.

The steep falls continued in Asia. Oil and banking shares were hardest hit, and commodities followed
suit. Gold reached its lowest levels in week tumbling to 1736. Silver fell with 10%. Oil continued its slide. NYMEX
tipped below 80, but recovered to 81 in late Asia trading. Brent is 106.

USD normally regarded as a safe haven in crisis, gained against all currencies Wednesday, but corrected
somewhat during Asian trading. Euro/USD trading at 1.3525; 1 % up from bottom levels the day before in
expectation that the week-end G-20 meeting shall bring some relief for the Euro-zone and especially Greece.

Several commentators yesterday took a double dip recessions as a forgone conclusion and predicted the start
of a prolonged bear market. The market met slightly better US-unemployment figures with no movement and a sigh.

effexx 27-09-2011 07:42

27.09.2011
 
Orderly Greek default
rumors rally markets

Rumors on an orderly Greek default rallied market’s yesterday and through the night’s trading in Asia. Dow Jones jumped 2,53 % and Nasdaq 1,35 %. Asian exchanges likewise rallied. Commodities are up with Gold trading at 1648 up from Monday’s low on 1525. Silver which reached a bottom on 26.00 in early intra trade makes a daily jump on 20 % trading at 31,25. EURO/USD is at 1.3548 and USD/JPY 76,34. Australian dollar is up and regarded one of traders favorites in forthcoming weeks.

Greek Premier George Papandreou is heeding to Berlin this morning to convince reluctant German politicians and public that Greece is worthwhile supporting. This while the Greek Parliament is discussing the new proposed property tax. Leaked information from talks between European finance ministers injected some optimism in the markets yesterday. According to rumors foreign banks with credit exposure to Greece shall have to accept a back payment of only 50 %. To avoid a collapse in the banking system the European Central Bank’s emergency fund is to be strengthened to facilitate interbank credits.

Both stock, commodity and currency markets continue to be extremely volatile. Stock prices even in solid companies are jumping 10 – 15 % intra day. The same goes for commodities and currencies. This opens up for tremendous trading opportunities with big gains – and – losses within a short period of time. In such an environment fortunes could be created and – lost – within few hours. Traders need to bear this in mind. The volatility is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

effexx 28-09-2011 06:46

28.09.2011
 
Short rally ends
in new volatility



After two days optimistic rally the markets in Asia were last night back to normal. Futures for Europe and US
are pointing down. Commodity prices are lower, and the EURO which got a boost following rumors on an
orderly Greek default, dropped back to Euro/USD 1.3559. USD/Yen is trading on 76,58. Oil is down 1,5 %
(NYMEX 93,50 and Brent 106,35)

September has been one of the worst months ever for commodities. Copper, zink and nickel have fallen steeply on
assumptions on lower economic growth, and even precious metals as gold, silver and palladium saw falls
between 10 and 20 %. There is no comfort for the metals that October traditionally is one of the worst
performing months for metals.

The rally over the last two days have been based on expectations and hope rather than fundamentals. the Merkel/
Papandreou meeting was marked by positive rhetoric, but Greece seems to heed closer to a default for each
passing day. New consumption and production figures coming from the US later today is not expected to
give the market any relief.

effexx 29-09-2011 08:42

29.09.2011
 
Greece again
sink markets



The Euro/USD is slightly up trading at 1.3661 this morning on expectations that Germany today shall ratify the next debt tranche to Greece. The upturn in Markets experienced over the last couple of days, came to a quick halt in Europe, US and Asia, on renewed fears for a Greek default and its consequences for the Euro and the world banking system.

Commodities continued its free fall with dramatic day trading eases in both precious metals and commodities. Oil price fell to NYMEX 79,50 and Brent 103. Silver fell more than 10 % from a Wednesday high on 32,50 down to 29 on intra trade in the US, recovering to 31 this morning.

The markets are extremely volatile with the smallest news and rumors creating havoc and big swings during daily trading. Till the Greek debt package has been ratified by national parliaments, the most important during this week, markets shall continue to be extremely volatile.

effexx 30-09-2011 07:13

30.09.2011
 
Better job numbers
lift US-markets


The number of jobless claims in the US fall from registered 423 000 to 391 000 during September, injecting some optimism at Wall Street last night. Wall Street rose with 1,21 %. Better forecasts for the US GDP added along with German ratification of the temporary crisis fund for the Euro-countries, EFSF, to a somewhat more positive market sentiment.

The Euro has stabilized on 1.3561 to USD after yesterday’s rally which saw 1.3628. USD/Yen is 76,56. Oil prices are slightly up with NYMEX 82 and Brent 104,42. Gold stabilizing on 1625. Markets in Asia are mixed with Shanghai trading at lowest numbers seen in 10 years after a dismal last quarter. Commodities continue to fall on negative growth aspects.

The German willingness to increase state guarantees for the European Stabilization Fund from 123 to 211 Billion Euros, is seen as
small step on a very long journey. The so called Troika is meeting in Athens to day to consider the effects of the Greek austerity measures. This amid new demonstrations and public frustrations.

30th September marks the end of a disastrous third quarter in markets with renewed fears of a double dip recession in the world economy along with an intensified sovereign debt crisis in Europe with questions as to the future of the EURO adding increased nervousness and uncertainty. The last couple of days have seen a certain market stability; that might be a token that we are in for a softer sailing at the last remaining months of the year?

effexx 03-10-2011 07:31

03.10.2011
 
Sell off
continues


Sell off of shares continued in Asia this morning with Hang Seng dropping 5, 4 %. The sell off came on top a dismal third quarter which saw stocks falling 25 %. October is traditionally one of the worst performing months in stock markets.

The Euro continues tits slide towards other currencies. EURO/USD trading at 1.3319. Oil prices (NYMEX 78 and Brent 101,85) are trading at lowest levels in one year. The sell off in Asia is due more to foreign investors taking profit and cutting losses elsewhere than weaker fundamentals. Industrial output in China is up in September. Gold is stabilizing on 1630. Silver is also up since last Friday.

Uncertainty continues to dominate in the EURO-markets. Obama added his worries stating that Eurozone debt crisis clouds the global horizon. EU finance Ministers meet in Luxembourg today amidst growing concern on Greece. No clear solution seems in sight with continued political bickering. The austerity measures are adding to the pain. The Greek GDP is expected to fall 5,5 % in 2011, much steeper than predicted.

From outside Greece seems on the brink of a social collapse. Demonstrators are crowding the streets, and a new general strike is announced for Tuesday.

Expect a new volatile week with continued opportunities for traders who read the rends correctly.

effexx 04-10-2011 06:56

04.10.2011
 
European debt crisis
spread global panic



October is living up to its reputation as the worst performing month in financial markets. Monday’s steep falls
in Asia were followed by Wall Street. Dow Jones dropped 2,4 % to 10 655 with the magic 10 000 limit in sight. Futures for Europe and USA are down after Asia fall for the consecutive day. Oil prices plunge with NYMEX tipping below
USD 76 and Brent fighting to stay beyond 100 barrel.

EURO/USD is at 1.3200. The EU-finance ministers failed to give any signals to calm markets after meeting in Luxembourg. This
has added to the pressure on the Euro. A Greek default is seem to be taken for granted. The visiting TROIKA (representative from the European Central Bank, IMF and EU-commission) has once again stated that Greek austerity measures are lagging behind. The final decision to release the next debt tranche to Greece is postponed to the 17th October meeting with heads of state.

In the meantime there is no money left in the Greek state coffers and the massive protests against the austerity measures and greedy bankers are continuing in the streets. Protests against bail outs and greedy bankers are not limited to Europe. Wall street witnessed over the week end that 700 protesters were arrested.

Big US banks as JP Morgan and Bank of America are as heavy debt loaded as its European counterparts. One of the few messages given by EU-ministers of finance, is that creditors must be prepared for taking increased Greek losses. Greek treasury bills are trading on 46 % of face value indicating creditor losses up to 50 %.

In an atmosphere of volatility and uncertainty Gold is springing back to life up to1671. Another precious metal, silver, is also been given a boost. Among the currencies British pound is under increased pressure GBP/USD at 1,5465.

effexx 05-10-2011 08:40

05.10.2011
 
Italian downgrade
adds to market fear


Moody’s downgrade of Italy has increased volatility prior to opening of markets in Europe. After steep falls Dow Jones and Nasdaq turned around during last hour’s trade and ended up 1,44 and 2,95 % respectively. The EURO/USD corrected down upon the news of the Italian downgrade from 1.3365 to 1.3305. The rally did not influence Asian traders. Hang Seng dropped new 3 %. One share is up for each three falling shares. Copper gained for the first time in six days, but is 35 % down from it’s peak in January.

Copper is though a sensible indicator on industrial activity and yesterday’s gain might signal that the bottom trend is starting to phase out. Most analysts do, however, agree that the worst is not yet been seen, and that markets still could fall another 10 – 15 %. A lot of wild speculation going on illustrated in Gold trading. Gold fluctuated between 1680 and 1605 during yesterday’s session opening the morning at 1630. Yen is steady towards USD at 76,665. Downward trend in GBP continues.

Italian SOVEREIGN debt was downgraded from A2 to AA2. Moody’s Investor Service is finding future perspectives for Italy negative with weak economic growth and problems and consequent problems in refinancing their debt. These are problems very similar to those facing Greece and other debt-stricken EU-countries. Before EU is coming up with a credible answer as to how to handle the sovereign debt problems market volatility is going to continue.

effexx 07-10-2011 11:21

07.10.2011
 
Europe's leading central banks
returned to crisis-fighting mode

On Thursday, on October, 6th, key stock markets of the European region, as well as U.S. market have finished the trading session in positive territory. Interest rates as it has been predicted were left at former level of 0,5 % and 1,5 % accordingly.

Investors have complacently apprehended news that the European central bank will support liquidity in bank system by carrying out of two long-term operations on refinancing in October and December. Besides, ECB will start the new program of the repayment of sovereign debt papers for the amount of 40 bil. Euro.

Following the results of the trading session " index Dow Jones Industrial Average has raised on 1,68 % and was closed on a level of 11123,30 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 has grown on 1,83 % to level 1164,97 points, and the index of hi-tech companies Nasdaq has risen on 1,88 % to a mark 2506,82 points.

The price for futures for oil of Light following the results of the auctions on NYMEX has raised on $2,91 or 3,52 % to level of $82,59 for barrel.

The price for futures for gold following the results of the auctions on COMEX has raised on $11,60 or 0,7 % to value to $1653,20 for ounce.

On Friday all attention will be chained to the data on a labor market of the USA - to a rate of unemployment and employment in non-agricultural sector. This news will affect the further dynamics of the market and in a case of negative results – we can see new minimums.

effexx 10-10-2011 09:26

10.10.2011
 
Bulls successively
keep leadership



On Friday, on October, 7th, the basic share indicators of the European region have shown mainly growth, having continued a positive tendency of previous days. Investors were satisfied with a positive data from the USA on a labor market, in particular, employment growth in nonagricultural sector in September has increased on 103 000 after increase on 57 000 month before.

Following the results of the session the indicator of "blue chips" index Dow Jones Industrial Average was closed on a mark of 11103,12 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 on a level of 1155,46 points.

Quotations of “black gold” this morning moderately rise: North Sea oil costs $104.33 for barrel, the future for oil of mark LIGHT - $83.77 for barrel.

Both futures for indexes of the USA, and futures for oil are up 1,5 %. Results of a meeting of the federal chancellor of Germany of Angela Merkel and the president of France Nicolas Sarkozy who agreed about working out of the plan of the decision of debt problems of the countries of an euro area (obviously to settle problems of Greece) became a driver for the opening of session. Leaders of Germany and France promised to develop the new plan before summit G20 which will be in the beginning of November, and, it means, that till the end of October there can be encouraging news regarding decision of debt problems.

Today is a holiday in the USA – Columbus Day - in this connection volatility will decrease together with volumes of the trades. Day of Columbus foretells quiet session.

effexx 11-10-2011 11:35

11.10.2011
 
Strong rally
continues

End of last week’s market rally continued on Monday with Dow Jones up 2,97 % and Nasdaq jumping 3,50 %. China Investments Corp has bought stocks in four major banks, creating increased confidence in the Chinese banking sector and initiating a strong rally.

These steps contributed to the positive market sentiment in Asia. Chinese bank skyrocketed 8 – 10 %. Hang Seng jumped 3,5 %. Asian stock exchanges rose for the fourth consecutive day experiencing their best four day period since 2009 with an increase of 5,9 %. Toki which was closed on Monday saw Nikkei jumping 2 %.

Statements from Merkel and Sarkozy have likewise been positively received. The leading Western European powers seem willing to transfer necessary funds to a new European emergency unit for sovereign debt and recapitalization of major banks.

Gold continues up 1679 while other commodities like copper are slightly down. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3640 and USD/Yen at 76,685.
Exchanges in Europe are expected to open slightly up after rallies in US and Asia.

effexx 12-10-2011 06:57

12.10.2011
 
Increased volatility
after Slovakia’s NO



Tiny Slovakia’s no to bail out for Greece has along with the Senate’s rejection of Obama’s plan for increased jobs, sent new shivers into financial markets questioning economic growth prospects and EURO stability. The giant aluminium producer ALCOA’s disappointing quarterly results injected a new dose of realism into volatile markets. Both Dow Jones and Asian markets ended down after a four day rally.

The falls in Asia were, however, less than expected due to news on better prices for shipping services. The Chinese Banks continue to rocket after the state investment fund yesterday bought heavily into four ailing banks. The Agricultural Bank of China is up 12 % this morning. Many investors are asking whether Chinese stocks have fallen, too, heavily and are underpriced.

The Slovakian parliament rejected the proposed changes in the European emergency fund involving major banks and sovereign states. A new government has is in the making. There are, however, certain optimism that the proposed package shall pass Parliament later this week. In the US President Obama has suffered a new defeat on his proposal for increased jobs.

EURO/USD is remarkably stabile at 1.3632 taken the Slovakian NO into consideration. USD/Yen is 76,715. Oil prices which have increased for one week is slightly lower this morning. NYMEX on 85,50 level and Brent 110 – 111, 10 dollars up from lowest levels a week ago. Gold is steady at 1666.

effexx 13-10-2011 09:44

13.10.2011
 
Stagnating Chinese
trade in September



The Chinese trading figures for September came in weaker than expected. The trade balance show a surplus on 14,51 Billion USD,
1.8 B USD less than the forecasts with weaker export and import numbers. Inflation is still running high on 6 %. The somewhat disappointing numbers had, however, no influence on Asian stock markets that continued to rally for the 6th consecutive day. The Japanese Nikkei is up more than 1 % after a new strong day for the US-exchanges. DOW is up 0,90 % and Nasdaq 0,84 %.

Copper and oil prices are slightly weaker in the morning trade with Brent 111, 17. South Korean and Australian currencies are stronger, and the EURO continue to climb against the USD at 1.3796 after reaching 1.3825 in early morning trade. The stronger Euro and the continued stock rally reflects investors belief that the EU-countries shall take quick and decisive action to recapitalize struggling banks and to avoid the Greek debt crisis to contagion further and hit Spain and Italy.

The speech by EU-Commission President, Jose Barroso, yesterday was seen in this light and as a strong expression of European willingness to take strong action to save ailing Western European banks.

effexx 14-10-2011 06:33

14.10.2011
 
Spain is downgraded.
Added pressure on EU


The rating agency Standard and Poor has downgraded Spain on weak economic growth prospects. S & P sees zero growth for Spain in 2012 due to high unemployment and huge private credits. The downgrading has increased the pressure on EU-countries to recapitalize banks and solve the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. One hinder was overcome yesterday when Slovakia as finally ratified the the proposed emergency fund.

After a strong market rally over the last days investors are back on the fence. European markets fell. Dow Jones was down 0,35 % and most Asian markets ended in red. The Euro is stabile against USD at 1.3789, Japanese Yen is falling against the dollar trading at 76, 90. Brent oil is steady on the USD 111 level while NYMEX is down to 84,50 on increased oil storage numbers from the US.

Market futures give no clear indication on how the decisive US-markets shall open today. Analysts seem still to be optimistic as to a temporary solution to the problems within the Euro-zone. Spain’s downgrading is, however, a stark reminder that Greece is not a lonely sovereign problem. Portugal yesterday introduced new emergency matters to tackle it’s grave economic problems and Italy is on the verge of a new government crisis. The fear of a serious contagion is overwhelming. Investors have to be prepared for some dumpy weeks ahead.

effexx 17-10-2011 07:27

17.10.2011
 
EU receives one week
to get house in order


The Ministers of finance within the Group of 20, the strongest industrial countries in the world meeting in Paris during the weekend, have given the EU a week dead line to get their house in order. This has lifted the stock exchanges in Asia which continue to raise after seeing the strongest weekly rally in six months. The increases indicate strong belief that European leaders shall find a way out of it’s sovereign debt and looming bank crisis. Recent statements give raise to some optimism that a way out shall be found.

The MSCI Asia Pacifice, an index for the Asian stock exchanges, is up 1,7 % Monday morning. Five shares are up while one falling in price. Last week the index rose 3,4 %. The Japanese Nikkei is up 1,46 %. Australia jumps 1,66 along with a stronger Aussie dollar. The South Korean Kospi increases 1, 1 percentage.

The Euro/usd is stabile at 1,3842. Gold is trading at 1682, more or less the same level as seen last week. The US Congress has passed a resolution against China, threatening increased tariffs on Chinese import goods, and expressing strong dissatisfaction with the presumably low Chinese Huan. This in a situation whereby the USD has depreciated or lost in value against most world currencies. The strongest gainers against USD being Norway and Indonesia which see their currencies strengthened 6,92 % against the dollar. This trend towards a weaker USD is seen to continue for the nearest months.

effexx 18-10-2011 06:24

18.10.2011
 
Germany sinks hopes
of an early recovery


More careful statements from German leaders on the sovereign debt crisis along with GDP numbers from China indicating somewhat slower economic growth sent world markets in red yesterday wiping out most profits gained over the last ten trading days. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq in USA fell with 2 percentages. The Shanghai composite, Hang Seng, dropped 3,4 %.

Last quarterly figures for China indicate continued strong growth with a GDP growth of 9,1 %. This is somewhat slower than market expectations and represent an eight consecutive quarter fall in GDP. Industrial production is, however, up with export and housing numbers stagnating. The overall picture of Chinese economy is positive, and the steep falls in Asia this morning may be seen as an overreaction more reflecting the continued nervousness surrounding the European debt crisis.

The spokesman of Angela Merkel yesterday plaid down unrealistic market expectations as to a quick fix to the European debt crisis after the G-21 meeting. His statement that ‘these problems have been with us for the last two years, and they are not going to whither away over night”, immediately turned market around. The EUro/Usd fall steeply from a month high. It has recovered somewhat in early trade today at 1.3772. Oil prices are down; Brent 110 and Nymex 84.


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