Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Holdings Inc. brokerage company

[wynnasuju]

Key options expiring today
Thursday, November 29, 2012 - 06:33

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1. 2920, $1.2925, $1.3000;

USD/JPY: 81.60, 81.80, 81.90, 82.25;

USD/CHF: 0.9150;

AUD/USD: 1.0350, 1.0360, 1.0450, 1.0465, 1.0535;

EUR/JPY: 106.75.



http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...expiring-today

[wynnasuju]

November 30: Asian session
Friday, November 30, 2012 - 06:25



MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares rose by 0.6%. USD/JPY jumped up from levels just above 82.00 to 82.45. EUR/JPY rose to 7-month high of 107.30. Japan’s core CPI was unchanged y/y in October, Tokyo core CPI fell by 0.5% in November fanning speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation. Opposition leader Shinzo Abe once again called for the Bank of Japan to pump unlimited cash into the financial system until inflation reaches 2%.

Aussie declined on slowing business investment in Australia. AUD/USD slid below $1.0435 yesterday and is staying down there today, supported by 200-hour MA. NZD/USD slid from yesterday’s high of $0.8265, but is supported by the uptrend line. The situation in the US is rather good. The negotiating about the fiscal cliff started, pending home sales added 5.2% last month (forecast: 0.9%). Later today watch for Chicago PMI, core PCE price index and personal spending.

EUR/USD is trading around $1.3000. Yesterday the pair tested a new monthly high at $1.3013. Some more news about the Greek deal: the IMF will disburse Greece’s next bailout tranche only if the country completes a voluntary buy back of its debt by December 13, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. Meanwhile, Greek banks don’t desire to buy the bonds back: according to them, stakeholders have already suffered huge losses earlier this year and that the buyback would constitute a disproportionate burden for them. Watch the economic calendar today – euro zone will release a bunch of important data (inflation, unemployment). Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Paris. German parliament will vote today to ratify the amended aid plan to Greece.

GBP/USD strengthened to $1.6050. Yesterday the cable has finally started to move after a consolidation. USD/CAD is hovering around 0.9930. The pair is supported by the 100-day MA. Canada will publish its monthly September GDP at 13:30 GMT (forecast: moderately positive). USD/CHF keeps moving sideways in the 0.9300/9250 zone.

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...-asian-session

[wynnasuju]

Key options expiring today
Friday, November 30, 2012 - 07:00

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3020;

GBP/USD: $1.6025;

USD/JPY: 82.00, 82.15, 82.25, 82.40, 82.50, 82.95;

USD/CHF: 0.9150;

AUD/USD: $1.0370, $1.0450;

USD/CAD: 0.9970;

EUR/JPY: 107.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.8085, 0.8100.



http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...expiring-today

[wynnasuju]

EUR/USD: bulls are pushing above $1.3000
Friday, November 30, 2012 - 07:37

EUR/USD rose above the upper border on this week’s range and is setting new 1-month high at $1.3027.

The bulls clearly don’t give up the hope to get higher on any positive signs. The market’s likely to be volatile today. EUR/USD may settle above $1.3000 in the short term.

Note that sell orders clustered $1.3010/25, buy stops above there. More sell orders clustered $1.3040/50. There’s the talk of $1.3050 barrier option interest. The positive momentum is clearly short-term. German retail sales plunged by 2.8% last month - a grim reminder about poor state of the euro area. US lawmakers give conflicting comments about the fiscal cliff negotiations every day, so it doesn't strike us a reliable driver.

Important events:

- French treasury conference where the ECB’s President Draghi, IMF’s head Lagarde Italy’s and France’s finance ministers Grilli and Moscovici will all speak.
- European data: CPI, unemployment (10:00 GMT).
- German Bundestag vote on Greek aid plan (approval is expected).

Resistance: $1.3020, $1.3035, $1.3070, $1.3085, $1.3140.

Support: $1.3000, $1.2950, $1.2915, $1.2880, $1.2825.



http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...ng-above-13000

[wynnasuju]

AUD under pressure ahead of the RBA meeting
Friday, November 30, 2012 - 08:43

The Australian dollar remains under pressure amid speculation the RBA may cut rates on its final meeting for the year on Tuesday (Dec. 4) in order to shelter the economy from a slowdown in mining. Markets are widely a rate cut: according to Credit Suisse research, 83% of traders forecast a cut by 25 bps.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: We don’t think an actual cut next week will put too much downward pressure on Aussie – a lot of the cuts are already factored into the market.

Morgan Stanley: Deteriorating domestic fundamentals and terms of trade suggest that the Aussie is likely to remain vulnerable. The Australian dollar appears to be losing its appeal as an investment currency.

Barclays: the RBA will make a 25-bps rate cut next week, but demand for Aussie as high-yielding currency will support the rate. AUD/USD will trade in a tight range with a downward bias.



Image: Reuters

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...ad-rba-meeting

[wynnasuju]

Morgan Stanley: sell GBP/USD
Friday, November 30, 2012 - 10:39

GBP/USD returned into the consolidation phase after having tested $1.6060 earlier in the day (50-day MA). The pair remains slightly above the upper boundary of a bearish channel.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend selling GBP/USD at current levels, targeting $1.5770 and with a stop at $1.6150. In their view, cable gains are unsustainable as UK economy is negatively impacted by European slowdown.



Chart. Daily GBP/USD

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...ey-sell-gbpusd

[wynnasuju]

UBS: comments on fx majors
Friday, November 30, 2012 - 11:00



EUR/USD: bullish view; in case of a break above $1.3023 euro may rise to $1.3140/72. Support is at $1.2939 and $1.2880.

GBP/USD: neutral view; resistance is at $1.6069. If pound breaks higher and closes above this level, it will get chance to rose to $1.6126. Support is at $1.6002 and $1.5962.

USD/JPY: bullish view; in case of a break above 82.85 dollar will rise to 83.30. Support is at 81.69/40.

USD/CHF: bearish view; focus on support at 0.9215 – if dollar breaks below this level, it will become vulnerable for a decline to 0.9041. Resistance is at 0.9304 and 0.9341.

http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11...ents-fx-majors