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  #81  
Old 13-10-2010, 14:37
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Default 13/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]CFTC: investors’ bets show that USD may advance[/COLOR]
According to the data of Commodity Futures Trading Commission, hedge funds and other large speculators have become more bearish on the greenback than ever before. On October 5 the number of bets on US dollar’s decline versus the single currency exceeded those on American currency’s advance by 341,683 contracts.
The market’s sentiment was almost as negative at the beginning of 2008 and at the end of 2009 and it’s necessary to take into account that both time the greenback surged. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona added 24% in the second half of 2008 and 19.6% from November 2009 to June 2010.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/USD will consolidate[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank expect that the pair EUR/USD will consolidate today inside a potential “flag” formation. The specialists note that there was a small “hammer” against the 9-day MA that may help the single currency provide some upward momentum.
Mizuho expects that the pair will pass the week in consolidation and closes it above 1.4030. The outlook for the European currency is rather positive. The strategists advise to take longs in 1.3960/1.3900 area stopping much below 1.3775.

[COLOR="green"]Warren Buffett: euro will face serious difficulties[/COLOR]
Well-known billionaire Warren Buffett, the head of investment fund Berkshire Hathaway, claimed that the single currency that gained 11% versus the greenback during the third quarter will face enormous difficulties.
In his view, 750 billion euro bailout program won’t be able to solve severe problems that occur from the differences among 16 euro area’s nations.
The famous investor, who has previously bet against US dollar, warned investors in May about the dangers of common currencies. Buffett noted then that entering the currency union the risk of the countries’ default run increases as they lose the ability to determine monetary policy and can print their own money no more.
As a result, it’s quite likely that the fiscal crisis in the peripheral European nations will once

[COLOR="green"]RBC: pressure on China won’t ease[/COLOR]
China’s trade surplus deceased from $20.03 billion in August to $16.88 billion in September, while the economists were looking forward to $18.5 billion figure.
Economists at Royal Bank of Canada believe that the decline of Chinese trade surplus won’t help the country to reduce international pressure for faster yuan’s appreciation.
The specialists claim that Chinese monetary authorities have enough room for letting the national currency strengthen. September data shows further impressive growth in both imports and exports. In addition, Chinese demand is still high enough to support the global economy.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/JPY may fall to 80.77/40[/COLOR]
The greenback fell from 85.95 yen in the middle of September to new 15-year minimum at 81.35 hit on Monday.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that even though the pair USD/JPY was consolidating during the last 2 days, the general direction of its moving remains downward. The specialists note that US dollar may weaken to 5-year support line in 80.77/40 area trading versus Japanese yen and then to the record minimum at 79.90. Below 82.78 the market remains in the power of the bears.
If the pair USD/JPY recovers, resistance levels will be found at 83.70 (20-day MA), 84.36 (the downtrend) and 84.57 (55-day MA). The rebound of the greenback will be confirmed only if it overcomes the latter.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: AUD/USD approached the parity[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citigroup claim that Australian currency has come too close to the parity with its US counterpart, so it will certainly manage to reach 1.00 level.
The specialists note that the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly raise its key interest rate citing high consumer confidence and comments from the RBA's official McKibbin.
According to Citigroup, it would be clear during the first session after the breach of the parity if the uptrend continues or not – distinct break above the line would be regarded as a buy signal. Citigroup, however, believe that the rate may decline during the first time.
Strategists at Barclays Capital, on the contrary, claim that the pair AUD/USD may decline. In their view, Aussie may be negatively affected by Chinese trade data.


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  #82  
Old 19-10-2010, 12:06
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Default 19/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]UBS: USD/CAD will rebound to C$1.0379[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at UBS AG in Zurich believe that the greenback that dropped by 1.2% versus its Canadian counterpart this month will manage to compensate October’s losses. Such forecast is based on the “morning star” reversal pattern formed on the price chart and confirmed on October 15. This upside signal will be negated only if US dollar’s rate gets below C$0.9981.
The specialists expect US dollar to add 3.3% against loonie climbing firstly to C$1.0379 and then potentially C$1.0509. According to them, momentum for the pair USD/CAD is quite bullish.
Last Thursday US currency hit the minimal level since April 26 at C$0.9981.
UBS strategists advise investors to buy dollars this week when the pair retreats to support level at C$1.0080.

[COLOR="green"]Aviva Investors: euro will finish the year at $1.45[/COLOR]
Analysts at British insurance company Aviva Investors managing about $371 billion assets claim that the single currency will rise to $1.45 by the end of 2010.
The specialists suppose the fact that euro managed to gain 19% versus the greenback advancing from its 8-year minimum hit at the beginning of June means that the European Central Bank was quite successful in stabilizing financial markets.
Such estimate for euro’s future rate is higher than the median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, according to which the pair EUR/USD will be at $1.33 by the year-end.
Aviva strategists underline that the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet noted that the exit from emergency stimulus measures won’t be slowed down.
Last week the yield spread between Greek 10-year government bonds and similar German debt got below 700 basis points for the first time since June. In addition, the ECB’s financing of Portuguese credit institutions decreased by 19% in September, while the financing of the Spanish ones – by 11%.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/CHF will reverse only above 0.9731[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the greenback keeps trading within 3-month downtrend channel versus Swiss franc.
The specialists note that US dollar will be able to reverse the current descending trend only if it manages to break above 0.9731.
If American currency strengthens, resistance for the pair USD/CHF will be found at the minimum of the middle of September at 0.9932.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: US dollar may fall to 80 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that extremely narrow trading range that we observed yesterday seems to be a ‘triangle’ consolidation within a steep ‘channel’.
The specialists believe that the 9-day MA that approached the current levels that act as a resistance capping the pair USD/JPY. According to them, US dollar may still get lower this week to 81.00 and then to 80.00 even though it’s oversold.
Mizuho strategists advise investors to take shorts at 81.50 stopping above 82.25.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound may fall to $1.5665[/COLOR]
British pound went down from the multi-month maximum at 1.6100 to the uptrend line from the minimums of the middle of September. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that sterling is moving down to the 1.5755 area that is the key level to confirm a top.
The specialists believe if the pair GBP/USD doesn’t manage to hold above 1.5755, it would start declining towards 1.5705 (support line from June to October) and 1.5665 (55-day MA).
According to Commerzbank, as long as pound’s rate stays below resistance levels at 1.6001 (August peak) and 1.6009 (last week’s maximum), the prospects for the pair will remain negative.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: G20 will help to ease currency tensions[/COLOR]
Analysts at BNP Paribas SA in London believe that the chances that G20 meeting will bring positive results on international currency issues have increased.
The specialists note that the International Monetary Fund uses its influence to convince G-20 participants that an agreement is a must.
In addition, the specialists note that the amount of asset purchases that is going to be announced next month by the Federal Reserve will show how ready is the US to reach out to China and avoid the currency war.
G-20 Summit will take place on 11-12 November in South Korea.

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  #83  
Old 21-10-2010, 09:31
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[COLOR="Green"]20/10/10

JPMorgan: euro will stop rising in 2010-early 2011[/COLOR]

Analysts at JPMorgan Asset Management in London think that the single currency won’t advance much more. In their view, European currency is already over-valued and strong euro would emphasize again severe differences between the euro region’s nations, particularly the gap in competitiveness between such countries as Germany and Portugal. That might, in its turn, put political pressure on the European Central Bank.
At the same time the specialists believe that if the Federal Reserve will decide to conduct quantitative easing and increase the amount of dollar liquidity as the market’s anticipating, the greenback will remain weak.
The pair EUR/USD added 12% from 5-week minimum hit on August 24 rising to the maximal level since January 26 at $1.4159 on October 15. The Dollar Index reflecting the dynamics of US currency versus a basket of currencies that consists of euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc lost almost 9% during the same period.
Societe Generale: emerging countries have lost currency was
Yesterday Brazil increased IOF inflow tax from 4% to 6% to protect exporters from what Finance Minister Guido Mantega called on September 27 a global “currency war”.
Analysts at Societe Generale SA in London claim that emerging-market countries have already lost the global currency face-off. As a result, they believe that all the efforts made by Brazil and other countries to stop the appreciation of the national currencies won’t bring much success.
The specialists underline that money trace the yield, so it’s impossible to stop the inflow of funds to the developing economies without stopping the global depreciation of US currency. Interest rates in the industrialized nations are close to zero that induces investors to borrow cheaply there and invest in higher-yielding emerging markets.
The rate of the Central Bank of Brazil is equal to 10.75% that is the biggest one among G20 ventral banks. In South Africa central bank’s rate is 6%. Brazilian real and South African rand added respectively 37% and 36% versus the greenback since the beginning of last year being two best-performing emerging-market currencies during that period.

[COLOR="green"]BOE minutes: opinions split[/COLOR]
The minutes of the Bank of England’s policy meeting that took place on October 7 showed that the Monetary Policy Committee split into three camps for the first time since August 2008. It happened as its member Adam Posen voted to increase bond-buying monetary stimulus program by 50 billion pounds.
Even though Posen was the sole who gave his vote for expanding stimulus, some of the members who voted to keep policy unchanged believed that further monetary stimulus would become necessary in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term that had increased in recent months.
As a result, it’s possible to assume that Posen is more likely to gain support for his view than is Andrew Sentance who voted for a fifth month in a row to lift up interest rates to 0.75%.
The next BOE meeting will take place on November 3-4. It’s likely that British policymakers will be influenced by the Fed’s decision about the quantitative easing that will be known after its November 2-3 meeting.

[COLOR="green"]The SNB managed to reduce pressure on franc[/COLOR]
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced on September 16 its 3-year inflation outlook. This news eased the pressure on the Switzerland’s currency and helped franc lose 2.3% versus euro. Inflation rate expected in 2011 was diminished from 1% according to June estimate to 0.3% and in 2012 – from 2.2% to 1.2%. The pace of inflation won’t exceed the limit set by the central bank at 2% at least until the second half of 2013 года that’s a year later than anticipated before.
Strategists at Citigroup Inc. note that the revision played the role of the verbal intervention. As a result, it’s possible to assume that inflation forecasts of the country central bank may be a much more effective way to control franc’s rate than the currency interventions that were previously used by Swiss monetary authorities. SNB’s foreign-currency reserves quadrupled in the 15 months to June, causing $15 billion loss in the first half of 2010.
Even though franc didn’t stop climbing versus the greenback, the decline of its exchange rate against the single currency is more important as 55% of Swiss exports go to the euro zone and only 10% to the United States.
In addition, it’s necessary to note that after the release of the new forecast many major banks changed their forecasts for SNB’s interest rates hike. Goldman Sachs postponed potential rate increase to from March 2011 to June, Credit Suisse Group AG – from December to June, while UBS from December to March.

[COLOR="green"]21/10/10
BNP Paribas: weak dollar will hot euro and yen[/COLOR]

Analysts at BNP Paribas SA note that US economic performance seems discouraging and the Fed is going to quantitatively ease, so there’s no doubt that the greenback will be weak. The question, according to the specialists, is against which currencies it will be weak.
Bank strategists note that emerging market currencies will be surely poised to appreciate versus US dollar due to the higher pace of these countries’ economic growth, as well as the attractive interest rates. However, PNP points out that strengthening of developing nations’ currencies is stopped by the national monetary authorities conducting interventions. According to the analysts, the pressure from loose US monetary policy has to go somewhere else, and it’s likely to go entirely on the euro and the yen causing discomfort in Europe and in Japan.
In addition, it’s necessary to emphasize that PNP Paribas doesn’t think that the United States is weakening its currency. In their view, dollar’s weakness is a side effect of the country’s current monetary policy that’s necessary to avoid deflation.
If the US and the Great Britain do more monetary stimulus, then more liquidity will pour into market making dollar and pound depreciate. The specialists believe that such situation is quite natural and if the eurozone isn’t satisfied it has to adjust its monetary policy in the appropriate way. In fact, however, the ECB is thinking about exiting its stimulus program, while other countries at the same time regard the possibility of the entry.
BNP economists say that weaker dollar is affecting the monetary policy of other nations citing that the Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t hike although all the analysts except the ones at BNP Paribas had expected it to. The strategists note that there are too many imbalances in the global economy and more domestic demand stimulus on the emerging markets is needed to drive the global economic growth.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays: EUR/CHF may fall to 1.3070[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Barclays Plc claim that the single currency may bring to nothing its one-month advance versus Swiss franc in case it drops below support level forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that consists of 3 maximums in a row and means downward reversal.
Barclays specialists underline that during the past month the pair EUR/CHF twice bounced off 1.3260. According to them, if this level is broken this time, euro will drop to 1.3165 and 1.3070. According to Bloomberg, the possibility of such outcome is estimated by 37%.
The franc lost 2.7% against the euro since September 15 as the Swiss National Bank reduced its inflation outlook. The euro has gained more than 5% versus its Swiss counterpart since September 8 when it hit record minimum at 1.2766.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: China's growth pace slowed down only slightly[/COLOR]
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets claim that Chinese third quarter economic data released today shows that the country’s economic growth declined only slightly. In their view, conditions are stabilizing that means that Chinese economy is strong enough for further gradual monetary policy normalization.
RBC strategists expect that Chinese rates will be raised by another 50 basis points during 2011, while the pair USD/CNY will be at 6.20 by end of next year. It’s possible that the moves of the rate will be more substantial, note the analysts.
Annual GDP growth dropped from 11.9% in Q1 and 10.3% in Q2 to 9.6% in Q3. Inflation reached new maximum with consumer prices 3.6% up in September compared with 3% increase in August. RBC underlines that China still has much to do in order to keep its economy on even keel.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: bullish trend for EUR/USD[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that large “bullish engulfing” candle formed yesterday shows that the main trend for the pair EUR/USD is bullish, while the single currency’s down moves are considered to be corrective.
The fact that euro managed to close above the 9-day MA increased the upward momentum. The specialists claim that the pair’s dynamic during the last 2 week should be regarded as an irregular “flag”.
As a result, Mizuho strategists are looking forward to the European currency’s growth to new maximums later this year. According to them, it’s necessary to open small longs at 1.3900 stopping below 1.3670. The first targets of the pair are situated at 1.4000 and 1.4150.


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  #84  
Old 25-10-2010, 13:22
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Default 25/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]UBS: G20 meeting results[/COLOR]
Strategists at UBS AG note that the weekend meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers devoted primarily to the problems of competitive currencies’ devaluation didn’t result in some firm obligations taken by the countries, but brought only vague general agreement on the fact that the nations shouldn’t lower their currencies to promote exports and growth and on the necessity to diminish trade imbalances without any surplus/deficit targets as it was wished by the United States.
As a result, the specialists believe that the meeting won’t have strong impact on the forex market. UBS notes, however, that the risk of currency war has declined making investors’ sentiment improve that may drive up Australian and Canadian dollars, the Nordics, and the emerging markets’ currencies.
Never the less, the analysts warn that in the longer term there will be still currency tensions and trade imbalances. The second-biggest currency trader expects yuan’s rate to advance a bit rising to 6.55 yuan per dollar by the end of 2010. The market’s attention will be focused on the Fed’s quantitative easing decision.

[COLOR="green"]John Taylor: pound will fall below $1.40[/COLOR]
Famous investor and the CEO of FX Concepts Inc., John Taylor claims that spending reduction performed by the British government in order to decrease the country’s budget deficit is too big and expects the pound to fall below $1.40 already this year.
British policymakers are going to cut spending by 81 billion pounds ($128 billion) of austerity measures through 2015.
The pair GBP/USD hit 2010 minimum at $1.4231 on May 20. Currently it’s trading in 1.5740 area.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/JPY will consolidate at 80.00[/COLOR]
The greenback broke below October minimum at the 80.87 level trading versus Japanese yen and renewed 15-year minimum at 80.41 (2004-2010 support line) getting closer to the record low at 79.90.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank, however, expect that the pair USD/JPY will consolidate this week in 80.00 area.
According to the specialists, if US dollar rebounds, resistance levels will be found at 81.47 (channel resistance), 81.93 (last week’s maximum) and then at 82.87 (September minimum).

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: USD/JPY will drop to 79.30[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Barclays Capital believe that the pair USD/JPY will keep trading within the downtrend unless it rises above 82.00. The specialists forecast that the greenback will lower to the all-time low at 79.90 and then to the channel base at 79.30.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: Japanese companies reduced USD/JPY forecast[/COLOR]
Economists at BNP Paribas note that Japanese corporations prepare for yen’s appreciation versus the greenback. According to the bank, the main country’s exporters reduced their USD/JPY forecast for the second half of the year from 90.00 to 80.00 yen, while the rate for future investment plans is set at 70.00 per dollar.

[COLOR="green"]British pound’s expected to decline[/COLOR]
Strategists at UBS AG note that the market’s losing confidence in British Prime Minister David Cameron’s ability to make the country’s economy recover conducting at the same time the biggest ever spending cuts in the UK.
According to the specialists, 81 billion pounds ($128 billion) of austerity measures through 2015 will force the Bank of England to use quantitative easing in order to prevent new recession. As a result, the amount of pound liquidity will surge making in its turn the demand for sterling drop.
UBS economists advised investors on October 21 to sell pound, especially against such currencies as Swiss franc, Australian dollar and Norwegian krone. Analysts at BNP Paribas SA also predict that British currency is going to lose much more due to the monetary easing, while Morgan Stanley strategists specify that sterling may fall from the current level of 89.25 versus the single currency to 93 pence per euro.
It’ll be necessary to watch for Britain’s third-quarter GDP data that will be released on Tuesday, October 26, as this report will show in what condition is the country’s economy and influence November Bank of England’s decisions on monetary policy.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: EUR/CHF may rise to 1.3930[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ended an October 19 recommendation to sell the euro versus the Swiss franc as the single currency advanced reaching the 1.3663 level. The trade caused investors potential loss of 1.4%.
Specialists at Barclays Capital With yield differentials in euro's favor the pair EUR/CHF is likely to gain more. The broken up so far 1.35 area became a support. According to the bank, the growth targets for the single currency are at 1.3680, 1.3870 and possibly at the 200-day MA at 1.3930.

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  #85  
Old 26-10-2010, 12:20
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Default 26/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]Nomura: US dollar will surprise investors [/COLOR]
Analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. believe that the greenback will surprise investors rebounding from almost 8-month minimum versus the single currency and 15-year minimum against Japanese yen. According to the specialists, this may happen ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting scheduled on November 2- 3.
US dollar has propped versus all of its major counterparts since September 21, when the Federal Reserve announced that it’s getting ready to expand purchases of government debt known as quantitative easing in order to support the country’s economic recovery.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on October 22 that futures traders cut bets that US dollar will fall against yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Nomura strategists advise buying the greenback versus the Aussie.

[COLOR="green"]Reuters: AUD/USD may rise to 1.02/03[/COLOR]
Currency analysts at Reuters claim that this week may be very interesting the currency market.
According to them, even though investors turned to be more optimistic after financial G20 meeting being and were buying European and Australian currencies, the greenback may strongly rebound ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. However, the declines in AUD/USD won’t be too big and the risk appetite is likely to remain high up to the end of 2010.
As a result, the specialists advise to buy Aussie on dips expecting that Australia’s currency will climb versus its American counterpart to 1.02/03 by the year-end. The demand for Australian dollar may be also supported by the SGX take over from ASX and further M&A activity.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY will further decline[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that in its trade versus Japanese yen the greenback is still capped by the 9-day MA that’s pulling American currency down into the apex of a potential “wedge” formation.
The specialists expect that that the pair USD/JPY will decline more even though US dollar is already oversold like it was at the end of 2008.
According to Mizuho, support levels are found at 80.61, 80.41 and 80.25, while resistance ones are situated at 81.10 and 81.51.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: to gain US dollar should rise above 81.45 yen[/COLOR]
The pair USD/JPY jumped recovering from 15-year minimum at 80.41. The greenback managed to break up through resistance in the 80.85 area and get above 81.00.
Technical analysts at MIG Bank, however, believe that in order to be able to show further advance US dollar has to overcome the 81.45 level. Such move would open American currency the way towards strong resistance at 82.88 and possibly to the recent maximum at 85.94. The specialists note that the 5-week decline of the pair seems to be overextended, so a good short-squeeze is quite possible.
If the greenback rebounds, resistance levels will be found at 81.50 (October 22 maximum) and 81.85 (October 21 maximum). Support levels are still at 80.40 (October 25 minimum), 80.00 (psychological level) and 79.75 (April 19 1995 minimum).

[COLOR="green"]Sterling rose on positive UK GDP data[/COLOR]
Sterling bounced as UK third quarter GDP turned out to be twice better than expected – British economy gained 0.8%. As a result, the expectations about quantitative easing by the Bank of England are likely to be subdued.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect pound to recover against its American counterpart to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.5880. The pair GBP/USD has already managed to get up from Wednesday's minimum at 1.5650 to the 1.5860 zone. The specialists note that the British currency should hold above 55-day MA in the 1.5652 area. Otherwise, sterling may fall to the April peak at 1.5526 and then the mid-July maximum at 1.5474.

[COLOR="green"]MF Global: US dollar may advance[/COLOR]
Analysts at MF Global claim that there’s still the significant risk of US dollar’s surge. Such outcome is possible if the Republicans get the majority at November 2 elections in Congress as this party doesn’t support stimulus policy as the Democrats do.
The specialists believe that the market will be looking at the size of a new stimulus package that’s expected to be announced on November 2-3 and here some disappointment is possible because the majority of investors have already priced quantitative easing into dollar’s rate.

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  #86  
Old 28-10-2010, 13:15
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[COLOR="Green"]Faros Trading: euro will rise to 137.28 yen[/COLOR]
Analysts at Faros Trading LLC believe that the single currency will advance versus Japanese yen during the next half of the year to the 137.28 yen level representing 50% Fibonacci retracement of euro’s decline from June 2008 to August 24, 2010. The last time euro visited this area was in October 2009.
The specialists claim that it may happen as Japanese monetary authorities are quite worried about the strong yen and will act to depreciate it. The pair EUR/JPY has gained 0.8% since September 15 when Japan intervened to the currency market for the first time in 6 years selling the national currency to weaken its rate.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: diamond pattern at EUR/USD chart[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank AG note that the pair EUR/USD is still consolidating and the potential “diamond” pattern remains in place as long as the intraday rallies are capped by $1.4057/80. “Diamond pattern” is formed after the long uptrend and signals potential reversal.
The specialists claim that the single currency will fall to $1.3697/$1.3622 (recent minimum, April maximum and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from June) if it breaks down through the key support level at $1.3805/$1.3775.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: CAD/CHF will rise to 99.80 centimes[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. advise investors to buy Canadian dollar versus Swiss franc. In their view, loonie will be strong in both cases: if the greenback appreciates Canada’s currency will follow the positive dynamics of its American counterpart and if US dollar weakens loonie will be supported by higher oil prices.
The specialists expect that the pair CAD/CHF will climb at 99.80 centimes in two weeks. The stops should be set below 94.30 centimes. The last time the two currencies traded at parity was in August.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: Forex turnover will rise to $10 trillion[/COLOR]
Analysts at UBS AG predict that foreign-exchange trading will double to $10 trillion a day on average in 10 years from now and neither financial market shocks nor the disruption to international trade will be able to stop such expansion. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data published in September, currency market volume rose to $4 trillion a day.
As a result, it would be more difficult for the central banks to influence exchange rates. In addition, investors will focus mainly on managing large-scale portfolios and be more as currency markets are likely to be extremely volatile. UBS estimated that the daily turnover in currency markets related to hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies and central banks added 42% rising from $1.3 trillion in 2007 to $1.9 trillion in 2010. It’s necessary to underline that daily trading turnover associated with goods and services transactions was only about $50 billion a day last year.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD may rise only above 1.4040/80[/COLOR]
The single currency was strengthening versus the greenback during American and Asian sessions compensating its losses made during the previous 3 days.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that as long as the pair EUR/USD remains below 1.4040/80 resistance area there’s high risk of euro’s decline.
If the European currency manages to overcome 1.4080, it will climb towards 1.4160 (October maximum) and 1.4217/64 (December and early January minimums).

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: USD/JPY is limited by resistance at 82.00/40[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital claimed the greenback’s attempt to rebound versus its Japanese counterpart was driven mainly by the advance in US yields.
The pair USD/JPY is trading currently in the 81.30 area. The bank specialists claim that the resistance in 82.00/40 zone will block upward movements of the dollar’s rate.
According to Barclays Capital, US currency will be able to start climbing only if it gets above 82.80 plus if US 2-year yields advance from the current level of 38 basis points above 46 basis points.

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  #87  
Old 09-11-2010, 13:52
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[COLOR="green"]Ueda Harlow: NZD/JPY may drop to 60.44 yen[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd. believe that New Zealand’s dollar may drop to 8-week minimum versus Japanese yen as it was gaining too rapidly during the past 3 weeks judging by the technical indicators.
The NZD’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) against yen rose last week to75 getting above the key 70 level that may mean that the pair’s gains are overdone. Today the indicator was at 66 as the pair NZD/JPY declined yesterday after rising for 7 days in a row.
The specialists are looking forward to kiwi’s correction in the short term. In their view, New Zealand’s currency may get down to levels in 60.44 yen area hit on October 21.
Kiwi’s decline may be caused by strengthening concerns that Ireland is struggling to reduce its budget deficit, which in its turn may make stocks around the world lose.
New Zealand, the world’s third-largest kiwifruit producer, claimed today that the North Island orchard was infected by a bacterial vine disease never before found in the country.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: euro will fall to $1.25/30 [/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS AG believe that the advance of the European currency versus the greenback may be short-lived. The specialists note that there’s a new wave of concerns about euro zone’s debt problems. As a result, they expect euro to lower to $1.25/30 during the next 3-6 months.
UBS analysts are bearish on the pair EUR/USD. According to them, the stronger euro becomes and the more it climbs above $1.40, the bigger is the negative impact on the region’s economic growth. The long-term fair value of the single currency is at $1.20, claims UBS. Even if the outlook for the peripheral European nations improves and they will be thought to be able to generate sufficient tax revenues to pay back their debts, EUR’s gains will decrease.
The yield spread between 10-year Irish bonds and German bunds of the same maturity climbed last week by 80 basis points as the Ireland’s government struggles to convince investors taht it won’t need financial help.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: GBP/USD will set minimum at 1.6000[/COLOR]
The pair GBP/USD is declining from its maximum in the 1.6300 area and the weekly trend line resistance reached so far.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank expect that if all goes well there pound will set interim minimum in the 1.6000 zone. According to them, the moving averages will help and the Chinkou Span and of the Ichimoku Cloud will get some bullish momentum from October’s candles.
The specialists advise investors to attempt longs at 1.6100 stopping well below 1.6000. First target is at 1.6300, while the eventual one lies at 1.6500.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro will go down to 1.3734/1.3690[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency is likely to have capped in the 1.4300 area trading versus the greenback as the pair EUR/USD has lost more than 400 pips so far and broke down through the support line of the near-term upside channel. The upside momentum for euro is ruined and it’s possible to observe major divergence of the daily RSI.
The specialists believe that euro is now poised to support in the 1.3734/1.3690 zone. The next support will be found at 1.3365/35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and August peak).
Even if the European currency manages to recover, it won’t be able to overcome 1.3940/1.4085 levels, notes Commerzbank.

[COLOR="green"]Risk aversion drives yen up[/COLOR]
China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced today new financial market regulations that are aimed to reduce the inflows of hot money. The measures include strict management of quotas for the use of short-term foreign debt by financial firms and strong oversight of fund repatriation by Chinese companies listed overseas, and of inbound investment by offshore investors.
Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that if money flows from overseas decrease, Chinese share and asset prices will weaken and the pace of the country’s economic growth will decline.
The market reacted on such news with investors becoming more risk-averse making investors sell shares and bought the safe-haven yen in the wake of the announcements.
Some short-term-focused investors may try to execute automated stop-loss selling orders between yen range later in the day based on the view that the US economy may remain weak over the coming months. If these orders are triggered, the greenback may fall to 80.00 yen.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: EUR/CHF will fall to 1.29[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS AG advise investors to sell the single currency versus Swiss franc at 1.355 as they expect the pair EUR/CHF to weaken to 1.29.
Earlier the specialists recommended entering the trade at 1.3870. The recommendations changed as the renewed concerns about the peripheral euro area’s countries weighted on euro and made investors choose franc as a safe haven currency.

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  #88  
Old 11-11-2010, 09:12
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[COLOR="Green"]10/11/10

Danske Bank: sentiment at the currency market[/COLOR]

Analysts at Danske bank note that US dollar and Swiss franc benefit from the pessimistic sentiment that enveloped financial markets. The specialists don’t think, however, that investor’s mood will remain bad as the Federal Reserve’s easing policy encourages the demand for riskier assets. In their view, it’s necessary to hedge dollar income at current levels.
Danske strategists claim that the Bank of England may revise downwards its CPI and GDP forecast for 2011 while revising the 2010 numbers slightly higher. That may weigh on pound which was strengthening so far.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/JPY again bounced from 111.75[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the European currency is bouncing for a third time from 38% Fibonacci retracement at 111.75. This time the jump was made with a small “hammer” candle.
The specialists believe that the pair EUR/JPY will find support at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. According to them, euro will be gradually appreciating to rise a bit higher over the coming month. The bank strategists also draw investors’ attention to the fact that the Chinkou Span might have to struggle through candles for another month.
As a result, Mizuho recommends buying at 112.85/112.35 and stopping below 111.50. The pair EUR/JPY is thought to advance to 114.00 and then to 115.40/115.68.

[COLOR="green"]JPMorgan: EUR/USD will drop to 1.30 by the end of the year[/COLOR]
The pair EUR/USD declined yesterday as the successful Greek bond auction was able to weaken concerns about euro area’s debt problems only temporary. The demand for the Greek bonds helped euro regain its positions lost at the beginning of Tuesday trade when investors were selling the European currency as the cost of insuring some peripheral European countries’ debt against default surged to the historical maximums.
As there’s a great tightness in the fiscal and budget system of the region, the level 1.40 for the pair EUR/USD is too high at the moment, claims JPMorgan. The bank specialists expect that the single currency will fall to 1.30 by the end of 2010.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD risks falling to 1.3335/65[/COLOR]
The single currency declined versus the greenback by nearly 600 pips falling from the Thursday’s maximum at 1.4281 to the target 1.3715/3690 zone.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank are looking forward to recovery on euro crosses today. According to them, support in the 1.3715/3690 area (Fibonacci retracement, October minimum) will be able to hold the initial test while the daily RSI which continues to break down.
There’s the risk that the pair EUR/USD will drop to 1.3335/65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and August peak) as long as it stays below 1.3937/1.4080.

[COLOR="green"]PricewaterhouseCoopers: British debt will rise by 2015[/COLOR]
Economists at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP believe that Britain’s total debt comprising the debts of UK consumers, companies, banks and the government may increase by 2015 almost to 10 trillion pounds ($16.1 billion) threatening the country’s long-term economic growth. Government debt is expected to rise from 67% of GDP to 77%. The country’s economy will add about 1.8% this year and 2% in 2011.
The debt of British households and companies advanced during the past 10 years on the property-related borrowing and lending between financial institutions, while the public debt rose as Britain’s tax revenue fell due to the recession.
There will be eventually too possible outcomes for the country. The debt should be sharply reduced that, in its turn, would risk causing another recession. Otherwise, the persistently heavy debt service burden would damp Britain’s economic growth for decades to come.
It’s necessary to understand that the interest rates will not be forever on the current exceptionally low level, so a large part of household and corporate lending remains exposed to possible future falls in residential and commercial property prices.

[COLOR="green"]Mitsubishi UFJ: euro weakened ahead of the ECB’s Trichet[/COLOR]
Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. claim investors are switching their attention from US quantitative easing to the problems connected with withdrawing financial aid in Europe that may put euro under pressure.
The single currency fell to the 3-week minimum versus Swiss franc at 1.3316 ahead of today’s speech of the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.
On November 4 Trichet gave some hint that the euro area’s central bank is going to plan the steps of exiting unconventional stimulus measures as ease monetary policy may drive up the inflation rate.

[COLOR="green"]BNZ: risk aversion encourages the greenback[/COLOR]
The spread on Portugal’s 10-year bonds over the German debt grew yesterday to the record high level of 452 basis points, while the spread on Irish 10-year securities over bunds reached an all-time maximum at 554 basis points. Portugal and Ireland still remain Europe’s most indebted countries.
Strategists at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. note that a sudden surge of the risk aversion on concerns the situation in these countries made investors increase demand for the greenback as a safe haven currency selling US stocks.
BoA Merrill Lynch: euro forecast increased
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch increased their forecast for the single currency from $1.25 by the end of 2010 to $1.33. The next year prediction for the pair EUR/USD was left at $1.25 because of the euro zone’s sovereign-debt problems.
The specialists note that the greenback might show weakness due to the second round of the quantitative easing announced in the United States on November 3.
The Federal Reserve made a decision to purchase an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June 2011.

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  #89  
Old 16-11-2010, 08:31
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[COLOR="Green"]15/11/10

Commerzbank: bullish reversal of USD/JPY may be confirmed[/COLOR]

The greenback jumped last week reaching 82.70/84 area on Friday and at the beginning of Monday’s trade. The pair USD/JPY is now trying to break up through 6-month downtrend resistance and 55-day MA in this zone.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if US currency manages to close the day above these levels, the bullish reversal will be confirmed. The specialists note that such outcome is quite likely after the triple divergence of the daily RSI.
If USD/JPY advances, it will be poised to climb to 85.94 (September maximum) and 88.00/05 (200-day MA).

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: GBP/USD will rise to 1.6300[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the strong “doji” candle formed on Friday shows that the pair GBP/USD is attempting to form new interim base in the 1.6000 zone.
The specialists note that it’s necessary to take into account that the MAs are pointing to a long position and the Chinkou Span obtained some bullish momentum from October’s candles, while the August resistance is likely to become a support level.
According to Mizuho, investors should buy on the dip to 1.6050 stopping below 1.5950 as the analysts expect pound to rise to 1.6175 and then to 1.6300.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho expects EUR/JPY to gain
[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the big “hammer” formed on Friday on the EUR/JPY candle chart is regarded as the third and the last in the series and marks an interim minimum. The low of the “hammer” lies at 111.04, that is below 2 previous downside tests. The specialists note that the daily close above the top of a large daily Ichimoku Cloud was able to change momentum from bearish to bullish.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy on the dip to 112.50 stopping below 111.50 as the analysts expect the single currency to rise to 113.50 and then to 114.40.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound risks falling below $1.6185[/COLOR]
The pair GBP/USD has now survived 3 attempts of the bears to break down its 20-day MA at 1.5976. As a result, technical analysts at Commerzbank see further consolidation as quite possible.
At the same time the specialists warn that there are significant downside risks as long as pound trades below Fibonacci resistance at 1.6185, so the 20-day MA may be tested again and sterling can drop below 1.5950 to 1.58.

[COLOR="green"]UniCredit: pound will rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62[/COLOR]
Analysts at UniCredit SpA expect British pound to appreciate. Their assumptions are based on the fact that investors may increase demand for sterling regarding it as safer currency than euro is. The specialists are citing the deteriorating of the euro zone’s debt crisis, the concerns about Irish banking sector its possible implications for the 2011 Irish budget in particular.
According to UniCredit, when European investors choose sterling they theoretically remain in the European Union hedging themselves against euro-zone-specific risks. The strategists think that pound may rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62.

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  #90  
Old 16-11-2010, 17:35
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[COLOR="Green"]Citigroup: euro will rise to $1.45 in 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. note that the single currency that showed last week the biggest 5-day loss versus the greenback since August may rebound to its January levels. The specialists believe that investors will react optimistically to any bailout for Ireland will and the concerns about the debt crisis in the euro area will ease. As a result, the market’s attention will once again focus on the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures and US dollar will resume trading within a downtrend.
Citigroup specialists regard the current decline of euro that’s close to its recent minimums as a good buying opportunity. The European currency’s expected to climb to $1.45 at the beginning of 2011 that’s above November 4 high at $1.4282.
It’s necessary to point out that Ireland had the highest euro-region budget deficit in 2009 at 14.45% of GDP. Irish authorities are currently trying to convince financial markets that the country doesn’t need any external financial help but the other members of the EU pressure it for accepting aid in order to calm volatility that made borrowing costs of indebted European countries surge to record maximums.

[COLOR="green"]BNY Mellon: euro will remain under pressure [/COLOR]
Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. expect the single currency to lose on the prospects of Ireland’s getting bailout from the European Union.
The specialists believe that investors’ concerns about the problems in Irish banking system and the austerity measures have reached the point when they don’t believe that the country will be able to get out of the crisis on its own. The EU and the ECB are worrying about of the risk of contagion.
The uncertainty will disappear only when there will be a clear decision on Ireland. Until it happens euro will stay under downward pressure and the greenback will be poised to advance.

[COLOR="green"]Forecast Pte: dollar will climb to 84.47 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte expect the greenback to rise to the 7-week maximum versus Japanese yen. The specialists note that the pair USD/JPY closed last week above 82.19 yen level representing resistance of descending trend line that connects the maximums of May 5, June 4 and September 17.
US currency broke through its 50-day MA at 82.67 yen that used to cap so far its upward movements. The short-term trend for USD/JPY is bullish, momentum is up and the pair is free to climb to the 100-day average at 84.47 yen.
Dollar’s rate added 3.6% from a 15-year minimum at 80.22 yen hit on November 1. Last week the greenback gained 1.6% showing its biggest advance since September 17. The US currency’s MACD was today at 0.0753, above the signal line that was found at minus 0.2724, that’s another sign that dollar is going to advance against yen.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: US dollar forecast’s increased[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS AG increased their one-month forecasts for the greenback as US economic data improves, while the concerns about debt crisis in the euro area strengthen making investors prefer dollars.
The forecast for US dollar versus the single currency in a month was lifted up from $1.40 to $1.30 per euro. The pair USD/JPY is now expected to trade at 85 yen in one month, while the previous estimate was at 80 yen.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: dollar will gain versus yen[/COLOR]
The greenback recovered from 15-year minimum at 80.20 rising yesterday to the 83.00 area and closing the day above the 55-day MA at 82.70/87, September minimum and the 6-month downtrend channel. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that such move of the rate means that it’s going to keep climbing.
According to the specialists, if US dollar advances, it will manage to get to 85.94 and 88.00/02 (200-day ma). The declines of the US currency will be limited by the 20-day MA at 81.49.

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  #91  
Old 18-11-2010, 09:37
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[COLOR="Green"]Okasan Securities: USD/JPY will rise to 86.00 yen[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Okasan Securities are certain that the pair USD/JPY will remain strong for some time. The specialists claim that the greenback may rise versus Japanese yen during the coming weeks to 86.00 that’s the level reached right after September currency intervention of Japanese monetary authorities.
According to Okasan Securities, technical levels with plenty of stop-loss buying orders are found at 84.00, 85.00 and 86.00.
Among factors helping US dollar strengthen there are declining commodity prices, increasing US Treasury yields and the deepening concerns about the euro-zone’s debt crisis.

[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: market comments[/COLOR]
Strategists at Danske Bank note that the market is still focused on Irish debt problems that continue weighting on euro’s rate.
The specialists believe that the single currency isn’t ready to react to some positive unexpected data. After yesterday’s surprisingly strong ZEW the pair EUR/USD rose only by 30 pips.
If Ireland keeps refusing to take financial aid from the European Union, the crisis risks spreading to other indebted euro area’s countries.
Danske analysts also claim that it’s necessary to pay attention to today’s Bank of England’s meeting. According to them, downside risk for British pound is limited as UK central bank is quite unlikely to go into further monetary easing.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will consolidate at current levels[/COLOR]
Yesterday the single currency continued declining versus the greenback. The pair EUR/USD broke through the 55-day MA at 1.3577 to the 50% retracement of the advance from August.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the near-term consolidation of the pair at the current levels seems to be quite possible as the market attempts to compensate recent losses.
The specialists note that the bulls will face resistance at 1.3645, 1.3765/75, which together with 1.3851 (20 day-ma) will limit the rate on the upside. The European currency risks lowering to 1.3365/35 support (38.2% retracement and the August peak) and then to the 200-day MA at 1.3138.

[COLOR="green"]Citi: pound will decline versus the greenback[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citi advise investors to look forward to more declines of British pound versus the greenback.
According to the bank, even though pound was the best performer among G10 currencies during the last five days, it yesterday’s drop from the day’s maximum at 1.6086 to the minimum at 1.5839 suggests that sterling’s going to catch-up with the drop in other dollar crosses.
If the market’s risk aversion keeps increasing, pound will correct downwards in the near term.

[COLOR="green"]EU and IMF will work on Ireland’s case[/COLOR]
Tomorrow the European Union and International Monetary Fund begin scanning the books of indebted Irish banks to ascertain whether Ireland can treat its banking system on its own or it needs help from the EU-IMF 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) rescue fund.
According to the estimates of Barclays Capital, Ireland needs about 80 billion euro. Klaus Regling, manager of the rescue facility, said the EU could obtain this amount in 5-8 working days.
Irish bonds fell second day with the 10-year yield climbing by 5 basis points to 8.51%. The yield spread between Irish and German bunds rose by 6 basis points to 567 basis points, while its maximal level was seen on November 11 at 646 basis points.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne noted that Britain which didn’t participate in the 860 billion euro aid program in the wake of the Greek crisis is ready to support its neighbor aiming not to let Irish bank woes spill over into the UK market.

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  #92  
Old 18-11-2010, 14:36
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[COLOR="Green"]Barclays Capital: sell EUR/CHF on growth to 1.36[/COLOR]
At the beginning of the week the pair EUR/CHF showed a daily reversal signal. However, strategists at Barclays Capital claim that the weekly reversal signal posted 2 weeks ago seems to be stronger. If their assumption is correct the single currency will trade between 1.32 and 1.36 against its Swiss counterpart. The bank advises to sell euro as its rate approaches the upper border of this range.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: euro may fall to $1.10[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS AG expect that the single currency may fall below long-term support at 1.1000 during the coming months.
According to them, euro is likely to trade within the downtrend as the European Central Bank will be forced to keep its monetary policy extremely loose because the euro zone nations will be tightening their fiscal belts. Moreover, a lot of private institutions are increasing short positions on euro encouraging public investment firms to follow their example that’s even more strengthening negative pressure on the pair EUR/USD.
UBS specialists advise investors to buy EUR/USD put-spread with 6-month expiry, strike at $1.1000, $1.000. Recommended trade's cost is 0.9025% with reference spot at 1.2190.

[COLOR="green"]JPMorgan&Chase: dollar will fall to 75 yen in 2011 [/COLOR]
Analysts at JPMorgan & Chase Co. are sure that the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing policy is making US dollar the world’s “weakest currency”. The specialists expect that the greenback will fall to 75 yen in 2011. The lowest level of the pair USD/JPY was hit at 79.75 yen in April 1995. The minimal rate since then was at 80.22 yen on November 1.
US, Japanese and European central banks will keep rates next year at the minimal levels in order to spur the growth of their economies, while the Fed is likely to take additional easing steps following the $600 billion bond-purchase program announced this month depending on inflation and the labor market. JPMorgan strategists also reminded that the United States has the world’s largest current-account deficit. Even if the US prolongs easing it won’t increase inflationary pressures as the balance sheets of banks and households are still damaged by the global financial crisis.
According to JPMorgan, 10-year Treasury yields may drop from 2.89% today to 2.25% over the next year and their premium over similar-maturity Japanese yields won’t widen. Loose policy of the key central banks flooding the market with extra liquidity will correspond to 3% advance of the global economy in 2011 as it happened in 2004-2004 when stocks and commodities surged on improving risk appetite and dollar lost 25% versus yen. The rebound of the world’s economy encouraging risk sentiment will make investors reduce their demand for Japanese currency that will decline against other currencies beside the dollar to levels last seen in early 2007.
The analysts also believe that Japan’s monetary authorities won’t intervene again at the currency market as it did on September 15 when the national currency rose to 15-year maximum even if yen appreciates versus US dollar due to the international criticism of foreign-exchange intervention.

[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: EUR/USD will lower to $1.34 in a month[/COLOR]
Analysts at Danske Bank believe that the pair EUR/USD will trade in a month at $1.34.
In their view, there may be several factors that could make the single currency stabilize versus the greenback in the near term. These factors include the solving of Ireland’s funding question and the following decrease of the risk of the crisis’ spreading to other indebted euro zone countries. It’s also important that the global risk sentiment wouldn’t be determined only by the concerns about the situation of the peripheral European nations.
In addition, US yields have to correct lower. The 2-year EUR-USD swap spread has stabilized just below 100 basis points after it narrowed due to the Fed’s announcement about the beginning of QE2.
Danske specialists note that these factors haven’t realized yet, so they believe euro will find itself under negative pressure. That’s why their one-month forecast is for the European currency’s drop to $1.34.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD won’t be able to overcome 1.3850[/COLOR]
The single currency was gaining versus the greenback during the last 2 days. Euro managed to rebound getting above 1.3600. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note, however, that it won’t be able to get much higher and, on the contrary, risks falling to 1.3365/35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the August peak) and then to the 200-day MA at 1.3138.
The specialists claim that the pair EUR/USD will face interim resistance at 1.3645 and 1.3765/75 and its attempts to climb higher will be limited by the 20-day SMA in the 1.3850 zone.

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  #93  
Old 24-11-2010, 09:31
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[COLOR="Green"]23/11/10

JPMorgan: euro may drop to $1.29[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. claim that the single currency may drop below $1.30 for the first time since September after it formed reversal model “outside down day”.
Yesterday euro set intra-day maximums and minimums that surpassed levels from the previous session and closed 0.3% lower pointing at further declines.
The specialists suppose that if the pair EUR/USD breaks down through last week’s minimum at $1.3448, it would fall down to $1.32 zone representing support of the uptrend line from the June 7 minimum at $1.1877, the weakest since March 2006. If European currency fails at this level, then it’ll slump to $1.29 level at which it traded last time on September 14.
According to JPMorgan, the attempts of the market to get higher mean that the bulls are too weak and that the rate risks dropping more.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: euro’s losing its gains versus the greenback[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at RBC none that the European currency would probably have to struggle hard in order to keep the gains it made since investors became optimistic on Ireland’s bailout.
In their view, providing the country with a loan won’t solve all its problems. The specialists note that the region’s economic fundamentals aren’t quite encouraging. According to RBC estimates, Portugal will also have to ask for financial help by February 2011 at the latest.
The pair EUR/USD is declining today from the level of $1.3786 reached yesterday, the maximal since November 11.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: dollar is strongly overbought against yen [/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that US dollar retested November’s maximum at 83.79 which is also first Fibonacci 61% retracement resistance. The specialists note that the rate is slightly above the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, while the moving averages suggest a long position.
Never the less, Mizuho strategists regard the latest advance of the pair USD/JPY as corrective and expect correction and consolidation to last 1-3 weeks. The greenback seems to be strongly overbought, so the pair is likely to cap during the mentioned period and start declining again.
According to the bank, it’s necessary to take small shorts at 83.75 stopping above 84.05. The rate may lower to 83.25 and then to 82.00/81.65.

[COLOR="green"]UniCredit: drivers for US dollar [/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UniCredit note that the greenback may advance more on North Korea and Ireland.
Investors increased today demand for US dollar and Swiss franc as safer currencies after as artillery fire between North and South Korea began by the former. The single currency was weakened by the concerns that Irish elections will hamper bailout negotiations.
The pair EUR/USD went down from 1.3633 to the day’s minimum at 1.3525, while EUR/CHF – from 1.3490 to 1.3379.
UniCredit specialists are looking forward to the upwards revision of US GDP forecast from 2.0% to 2.4% later in the day.
However, the bank warns that dollar’s advance may be limited by the FOMC minutes in case the Fed calls raising core inflation its key goal.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: trend for EUR/USD is bearish[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that it’s now absolutely clear that the latest advance of the single currency versus the greenback was nothing but a correction. Yesterday euro’s rebound from 1.3445 faltered at the 20-day MA at 1.3794, so that the pair EUR/USD went down below 1.3600.
Even though the chance a retracement into the 1.3865/1.3965 area can’t be excluded, its possibility has significantly reduced.
The general trend for the pair is bearish. The European currency is poised to 1.3365/35 support (38.2% retracement and the August peak) then to 1.3138 (200-day MA).

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  #94  
Old 24-11-2010, 15:23
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[COLOR="Green"]24/11/10

Commerzbank: USD/CHF may rise to 1.0480[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair USD/CHF keeps consolidating below the psychologically important 1.0 level. The recent down moves of the rate were modest enough to suggest that the greenback has all chances to climb this week. The key support for US currency is found at 0.9780.
The specialists regard the current pattern as a potential base. In their view, if USD/CHF closes above 1.0 it will rise to 1.0329 on its way towards 1.0480.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will consolidate before falling down[/COLOR]
The single currency fell sharply versus the greenback from the Monday’s maximum at 1.3785 and slumped today below its initial downside target of 1.3365/35 hitting 1.3284 low so far. Analysts at Commerzbank expect the pair EUR/USD to consolidate before resuming the longer term downtrend.
The specialists believe that the next euro’s downside targets lie at 1.3230 (6-month support line) and 1.3136 (200-day MA). According to Commerzbank, the rate of the European currency won’t be able to get above 1.3525/1.3625. The bears will dominate the market below the channel at 1.3701.

[COLOR="green"]RBS: ECB and euro under pressure[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc claim that the tough determination of the European Central Bank to remove monetary stimulus and reduce liquidity support for commercial banks is intensifying the euro zone’s debt crisis.
According to the specialists, the market will pressure on the ECB to ease its monetary policy that, in its turn, will negatively weight on the European currency.

[COLOR="green"]Merkel is worried about euro zone’s prospects[/COLOR]
German Chancellor Angela Merkel called today the prospect of more euro zone’s countries applying for bailout “exceptionally serious” referring to the concerns that the debt crisis may spread to greater economies such as Portugal and Spain. Such words drew critics from other EU officials.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou claimed last week that the German position makes the yields for indebted countries such as Ireland or Portugal surge. As a result, their market financing becomes more expensive and the possibility of their default increases.
Investors were selling the single currency on Merkel’s remarks. The pair EUR/USD hit 3-month minimum at 1.3284.
According to the officials at the European Commission, Ireland may need 85 billion euro ($114 billion). Of the total, 35 billion euro would go to banks and 50 billion euro to help finance the government. Analysts at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets note that investors have completely lost confidence in the efficiency of the nation’s rescue program and its ability to end the European turmoil. As a result, the risk to the euro area’s financial system as a whole keeps surging.
Tomorrow Ireland’s government is expected to announce welfare cuts by about 800 million euro in 2011 as part of its 4-year plan to reduce its budget deficit from 12 to 3% of GDP. The county’s corporate tax rate may remain at 12.5%, while the minimum wage can be diminished by 12%.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: interim maximum on USD/JPY [/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the first signs of interim maximum appeared yesterday on the USD/JPY chart. The greenback reached 7-week at 83.85 yen.
Large doji against Fibonacci resistance and a daily close below the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud mean that the bulls won’t be able to push the rate in the near term any higher and the pair USD/JPY will likely remain capped by 83.85 level until the end of the week.
Support for the pair will be found at 9-day MA at 82.75 it was on Tuesday.

[COLOR="green"]Rabobank about the situation in Ireland [/COLOR]
Analysts at Rabobank claim the Irish bailout won’t make the problems of the euro area vanish. On the contrary, they believe that many issues are going to arise in the next few months. The specialists agree with the opinion that the concerns about Portugal's and Spain's debt woes ruined the recent advance of the single currency.
According to Rabobank, the initiative of Ireland's Green Party to conduct new elections may mean that the country will be an object of concern for a longer period of time. The possibility that the party that participates in the coalition government won’t support Ireland’s austerity plan isn’t high, but if it happens euro may find itself under even more severe pressure. Now political uncertainty increases the volatility of EUR/USD.
The bank also commented on China as investors try to make out when the country’s monetary authorities will tighten monetary policy. The expectation of the rates hike will limit the advance of the currencies closely tied to the pace of the world’s economic growth letting US dollar strengthen against Norwegian krone and Brazilian real.

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  #95  
Old 26-11-2010, 14:31
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Default 25/11/10 & 26/11/10

[COLOR="Green"]25/11/10

BNP Paribas: possibility of euro’s strengthening[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at BNP Paribas SA believe that the European currency may overcome resistance levels and rebound versus the greenback. In their view, if euro breaks above through $1.338 and $1.342, it may be able to climb to $1.3475 and $1.3535. If the pair EUR/USD goes down below $1.3285 it will likely stop at $1.3235, claim the specialists.
BNP strategists note that short-term upward move of the single currency may mean that its 3-day 5-cent decline is now over.
US dollar rebounded by 2.3% during the past week versus euro, while it was trapped in the narrow ranges versus Swiss franc and Japanese yen gaining only 0.5% and losing 0.5% respectively. The analysts suppose that until US currency climbs against its Swiss and Japanese counterparts as well as until the Dollar Index advances the growth of the greenback versus euro will be limited.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: sell euro on the rally to 1.3420/60[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citigroup claim that the European currency is trading in a strong downtrend versus the greenback. As a result, they recommend selling euro on any rally to 1.3420/60 zone. It will be necessary to stop the trade if the pair EUR/USD gets above 1.3520. Below this level euro is seen moving to 200-day MA at 1.3135.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: technical levels for EUR/USD[/COLOR]
The single currency declined from Monday’s maximum at 1.3785 getting close to the 1.3300 zone. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the initial decline of the pair EUR/USD will be held by 5-month downtrend line at 1.3269 and the 200-day MA at 1.3134.
If euro tries to advance, it will be capped by 1.3520/1.3665 area. The key resistance, according to the specialists, is found at 1.3786.

[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: euro may rise to $1.40 by the year-end[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Morgan Stanley believe that the single currency is able to appreciate versus the greenback and climb by the end of 2010 to the $1.40 area.
In their view, the concerns about spreading of the debt crisis to the peripheral euro nations are already reflected in EUR/USD rate. In addition, they underline that core euro zone economy is still out of danger of contagion. The specialists also suppose that euro may rise versus Swiss franc.


[COLOR="green"]26/11/10

UBS: Swiss franc will advance today versus euro[/COLOR]

Analysts at UBS AG expect that Swiss franc will be gaining today versus the single currency even though the Swiss KOF leading indicator is thought to lower from October’s level at 2.17 in to 2.09 in November. The indicator will be released at 10:30 GMT.
The specialists underline that Switzerland’s economy keeps showing better results than the euro area’s one, so the pair EUR/CHF will be trading within the downtrend in the current circumstances.
Strategists at Commerzbank share this opinion and note that the main reason for such dynamics of the rate is the weakness of euro due to the European debt crisis, though so far positive Swiss trade and employment data have their impact as well.

[COLOR="green"]Evolution Securities: euro zone needs euro[/COLOR]
Analysts at Evolution Securities Ltd. claim that the European banking system may collapse if the region gives up the single currency. According to them, if the countries return to their national currencies, there will be an immediate wave of devaluations across the former euro area and European banks will become insolvent. Such outcome would also have an extremely negative impact on the multinationals as there are now too many cross-border investments in Europe.
The specialists estimate the losses of French, German and British banks in case of euro’s collapse by 360 billion euro ($479 billion). The devaluation after the national currencies are relaunched is thought to be 30%. As a result, Evolution Securities analysts believe that the region’s economies won’t be able to survive separately anymore and all they can do is to keep integrating and moving to the fiscal union.

[COLOR="green"]UniCredit: euro will find strong support at $1.32[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the European currency has come to the strong support area that will be able to hold the initial attack of the bears. This support zone is formed by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3269, 5-month uptrend line at 1.3253 and the 200-day MA at 1.3133.
Strategists at UniCredit also believe that the pair EUR/USD will struggle to stay above 1.32. However, the bank still supposes that it’s necessary to sell euro if it gets above 1.34 on a positive vote for Portugal's austerity plan.
Citi specialists say that EUR/USD doesn’t slump due to the respectively good demand, but underline that investors shouldn’t forget about serious downside risks for the European currency.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: US dollar is likely to advance versus yen[/COLOR]
The greenback rose today to the 7-week maximum versus Japanese yen at 83.89 overcoming the major resistance at 83.62. US currency was helped by the short-covering in the dollar and fresh yen selling from Japanese margin traders.
If the pair USD/JPY climbs above 84 yen, the market sentiment will likely change and investors will turn to buying dollars.
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that the possibility of the pair’s growth increases as US yields are rebounding. According to the specialists, if the greenback closes today above the daily Ichimoku Cloud and resistance in the 83.70/84.00 area, it will be poised to rise to 84.75 and to the intervention peak around 86.00.

[COLOR="green"]BofTokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: US dollar may become strong[/COLOR]
Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. believe that by April the Dollar Index may gain 5% more after it had already risen from the minimum December 8, 2009 at 75.631 hit on November 4 getting yesterday above the 80 level. The index founds itself above the top of the Ichimoku Cloud for the third day in a row forming a “golden cross”: 5-day MA crosses above 21-day and 65-day lines. According to the specialists, if the 5-day line consistently stays above the 90-day MA, and the 65-day and 90-day lines go up, dollar’s downtrend will end and the phase of strong greenback will begin.
The dollar Index is measuring the greenback performance versus euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone and Swiss franc. US currency lost 9.4% versus its main counterparts since reaching maximum in June.
When dollar’s uptrend is confirmed, the index may climb by January to 82.170 level representing 50% Fibonacci retracement of a decline from June to the beginning of November. By March-April American currency may reach 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 83.713.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: 1.5650 – breakpoint for GBP/USD[/COLOR]
Analysts at Commerzbank note that British pound broke down through confluence of supports (2-month uptrend line, 55-day MA and double Fibonacci). The next key level on the downside lies at 1.5650. If sterling fails here it’ll become vulnerable for a decline toward its 200-day MA at 1.5346.

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  #96  
Old 03-12-2010, 16:43
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Default 03/12/10

[COLOR="Green"]03/12/10

Barclays Capital: US payrolls will beat the forecasts[/COLOR]

The greenback has retreated today versus Japanese yen from 83.89 at the opening of the trade to set the minimum at 83.53.
The key even for the pair USD/JPY today is US non-farm payrolls November data released at 1330 GMT. Analysts at Barclays Capital expect that the data to be much better than the forecasts, so dollar may be able to climb to 84.50.
According to the Dow Jones survey, payrolls will add 144,000, while the unemployment rate will stay at 9.6%. Barclays specialists are looking forward to 170,000 advance in payrolls and the unemployment decline to 9.5%.

[COLOR="green"]Goldman Sachs: the ECB will increase the rate only at the end of 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the European Central Bank may put off increasing its benchmark interest rate from the third to the fourth quarter of the next year.
In their view, even though the euro area’s economy is doing quite well, European monetary authorities aren’t going to endanger it by the monetary tightening taking into account the region’s debt crisis. The most serious risk, according to Goldman, is the question of financing the indebted peripheral European nations.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: short positions on USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that US dollar’s advance versus Japanese yen has paused and the rate is now found in the middle of 3-month trading range.
The specialists are still bearish on the greenback. In their view, it’s necessary to take shorts expecting the rate of US currency to fall to 83.18 and 82.80. The stops are recommended at 84.45.
Support for the pair lie at the horizontal Cloud top at 83.00. USD/JPY is now struggling with the 9-day MA in the 83.60 area.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: loonie’s rising versus the greenback[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at MIG Bank note that the greenback broke through support at 1.0057 trading versus its Canadian counterpart. The pair USD/CAD is now risking to test support in 0.9978/30 area. If the rate fails to hold here, it’ll fall to 0.9819/0.9710. Such outcome seems inevitable unless US dollar rises above 1.0210.
Strategists at Barclays Capital expect loonie to gain in case US economic data turns out to be positive today as US and Canada’s economies are strongly connected and Canada’s free of worries about the monetary stimulus that tend to affect the greenback. Never the less, the specialists believe that the Bank of Canada will decide at its meeting next week to continue keeping monetary policy loose as the recent increase of inflation was driven by housing costs. As a result, Canadian dollar may find itself under pressure, says Barclays Capital.

[COLOR="green"]BofA Merrill Lynch: euro will fall to $1.25 in 2011[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that the single currency’s slide seen during the last months brought it the through key levels on the Ichimoku Chart. According to them, there are strong chances that euro falls to $1.25 in the first half of 2011.
The pair EUR/USD climbed from the 4-year minimum at $1.1877 on June 7 to the 9-month maximum at $1.4282 on November 4. Then it broke below the bottom of an Ichimoku Cloud at $1.3374, while its shorter-term conversion line crossed down its longer-term baseline. In addition, the rate of the European currency also went below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned advance from June to November at $1.3080.
The specialists underline that the momentum is now definitely downward, so the descending trend is going to continue at least during the next several quarters. Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects that the single currency is targeting the $1.2796 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and $1.2445 (76.4% retracement).

[COLOR="green"]Euro zone’s growth outlook[/COLOR]
The European Central Bank didn’t change yesterday its 2011 economic growth forecast – euro zone’s GDP is expected to gain next year about 1.4%. The estimate for inflation was lifted from 1.7% to 1.8%. As for 2012, the ECB expects European economy to add 1.7%.
John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts LLC, thinks that the euro area faces recession in 2011 as the bailout packages won’t be able to put an end to the European sovereign debt crisis. The specialist even notes that some weaker countries may have to leave the currency union.

[COLOR="green"]Goldman Sachs: gold price will peak in 2012[/COLOR]
Economists at Goldman Sachs believe that gold prices will continue to rise in 2011 due to the low interest rates, the second round of the quantitative easing in the United States and high investors’ demand for gold as a safer asset. In a year gold price will climb to $1,690 an ounce, think the analysts.
Then in 2012, when US economic growth is going to gain pace and the country’s real interest rates will start rising, gold price will reach its maximum $1,750 an ounce and begin easing down. According to Goldman, the average gold price for 2012 is equal to $1,700. The bank raised the growth forecast for American economy to 2.7% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012.
The specialists note that although they expect gold to gain value the next year it’s necessary to hedge against the declines of the price and suggest using a covered call option and fully finance a put option.

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  #97  
Old 06-12-2010, 16:33
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Default 06/12/10

[COLOR="Green"]06/12/10

RBS: Aussie’s decline won’t last long [/COLOR]

Strategists at RBS Australia claim that the retreat of the Australian dollar from its maximum versus the greenback at 0.9938 reached on Friday, December 3, won’t last long.
The specialists note that investors are now looking forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate statement that’s released tomorrow. Market’s currently pricing in 2.0% chance that the central bank will reduce the rate so any signs of tight approach from RBA will make the Aussie gain.


[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY may drop to 81.85[/COLOR]
Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that there was a “bearish engulfing” candle formed last week on the USD/JPY chart. According to them, this is a sign that the greenback has set an interim maximum at 84.39 and will be declining.
The specialists claim that US dollar may find support at the 9-week moving average at 82.31. However, investors have to beware of the market events that can turn out to be unfavorable and make the rate break down.
Mizuho strategists advise to try selling at 82.90/83.05 and stopping above 84.00. The pair’s expected to lower to 81.85.

[COLOR="green"]Bernanke told about possible expansion of QE[/COLOR]
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that the pace of US economic growth is very weak. According to the official, 2.5% growth is needed only to keep unemployment stable.
Last month the unemployment rate rose from 9.6% in October to the maximum since April at 9.8%, while the number of new jobs was just 39,000 a month. Bernanke warned that if everything remains in the current state, a more normal unemployment rate of 5-6% will be reached only in 4-5 years.
As a result, it’s quite possible that the Fed will increase bond purchases from $600 billion as it was announced in November, claimed Bernanke in his interview to CBS. The decision will be taking according to the efficiency of purchase program and the outlook for economy and inflation.
There’s a political disaccord in the United States on the problem – Republican lawmakers are against quantitative easing as they believe it will stimulate inflation and won’t help to cut unemployment. Moreover, American quantitative easing has found a lot of critics in the world – from such countries as China and Germany and from emerging nations.
Specialists at Westpac Banking Corp. note that as Bernanke was defending his decisions to a mass American audience on television, weak dollar isn’t the objective of US monetary authorities, but a side effect of quantitative easing necessary to support the country’s economy.

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  #98  
Old 08-12-2010, 10:42
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Default 07/12/10

[COLOR="Green"]Forecast Pte: EUR/USD will fall if it stays below $1.3471[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte claim that the single currency may lose its recent gains versus the greenback if it fails to overcome resistance at $1.3471. The specialists note that this level represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of euro’s decline from November 4 maximum at $1.4282 to the November 30 minimum at $1.2969.
As the pair EUR/USD has remained below this resistance level in the past two days, the upside seems still limited. Forecast Pte strategists note that the single currency hasn’t even retraced the 38.2% level of the recent down move regarding euro’s inability to strengthen as a bearish sign. In their view, euro may extend its November fall.
So, if the European currency keeps trading below $1.3471, it may go down to test the $1.3000 level and, more particularly, November 30 minimum at $1.2969 and the December 1 minimum at $1.2971 to August-September minimums at $1.2588 and $1.2644 respectively.

[COLOR="green"]Societe Generale: EUR/USD may drop to $1.2585[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Societe Generale SA believe that the European currency’s likely to drop to last week’s minimum at $1.2970 against US dollar as it didn’t manage to break above a key resistance area of $1.3445/1.3450. In case euro fails at $1.2920, it will fall to the $1.2585/90 zone. The last time the pair EUR/USD was trading so low was on August 24 when the rate hit the 1.2587 mark.

[COLOR="green"]Deutsche Bank: oil price forecast’s raised[/COLOR]
Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG increased their 2011 oil price forecast from $80 to $87.50 a barrel. In their view, the flattening in the crude oil forward means that oil price rallies are becoming based on more solid foundations.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY will trade in the 82.00/83.00 area[/COLOR]
The greenback fell retracing 50% of its November growth trading versus Japanese yen. The pair USD/JPY hit 3-week minimum at 82.35 at the Asian session. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that US dollar will be fluctuating between 82.00 and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 83.00 during the next sessions.
The specialists note that support levels for USD/JPY are found at 82.52, 82.31 and 82.00, while resistance levels lie at 82.80, 82.99/07 and 83.45.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: 0.9930/0.9978 – support for USD/CAD[/COLOR]
The pair USD/CAD lost about 30 pips today as the greenback got under pressure due to the improved risk sentiment. Investors’ attention seems to be currently focused on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision that will be announced at 3:00 pm GMT.
Technical analysts at MIG Bank note that US dollar broke through the initial support at 1.0057 last week and formed a potentially bearish “outside week pattern” confirming an important peak at 1.0286. If US currency breaks down through the next support in 0.9930/0.9978 zone, it may lower to 0.9710/0.9819 area extending the long-term downtrend.

In order to rebound climbing to 1.0373 and 1.0673/1.0853 USD/CAD has to overcome resistance at 1.0145/1.0286.

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  #99  
Old 10-12-2010, 13:39
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Default 09/12/10 & 10/12/12

[COLOR="Green"]09/12/10

BNP Paribas: Aussie’s growth will be limited[/COLOR]

Australian dollar surged versus its US counterpart on the encouraging labor market data. The pair AUD/USD went up from 0.9790 before jobs report rising above 0.9860. The country’s unemployment fell from October’s level of 5.4% to 5.2% in November and the payrolls increased during the past month by 54,600 while the analysts were looking forward only to 19,100 advance.
Never the less, analysts at BNP Paribas note that Aussie’s gains may be still rather limited due to several reasons. The main negative factor for Australia’s currency will be the withdrawal of liquidity from China that’s trying to fight rising inflation, whether it's this weekend or next weekend. The specialists underline that any change of China’s monetary policy will affect AUD/USD as China is Australia's largest trading partner. According to BNP Paribas, the pair will face strong resistance at 1.0003.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: SNB won’t raise rates[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS AG expect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will leave its benchmark interest rate at the current low 0.25% level on its December 16 meeting.
According to UBS, the SNB won’t be able to ignore the concerns about the economic and fiscal state of some euro zone countries that makes investors increase demand for franc as a refuge currency. The specialists note that Switzerland’s inflation rate is close to its historic minimums while the national currency keeps appreciating both versus euro and on a trade-weighted basis.
As a result, UBS believes that the time for monetary tightening hasn’t come yet and that rates won’t be lifted until June 2011.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro will rise to $1.3400/50[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank expect the European currency to gain today versus the greenback. The specialists claim that a small “doji” candle formed yesterday at the 9-day MA at 1.3211 will make the pair EUR/USD return upwards to bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud in the 1.3400/50 area.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy euro at 1.3300 stopping below 1.3180.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: exchange rate volatility will rise in 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at UBS AG believe that foreign-exchange rates will behave the next year in a very volatile manner. In their view, this will happen as the pace of the economic growth in the emerging markets and in the developed ones diverges, while the central banks use monetary stimulus measures to spur recoveries and the euro area keeps struggling to fight serious debt crisis. There is also high risk of policy-maker error in relation to interest rates, quantitative easing and fiscal tightening, notes UBS.
The specialists expect that annual exchange-rate price swings on some major currencies may double. In particular, the single currency’s trading range may widen from $1.1877-$1.4579 this year to $1.1-$1.5 in 2011. The greenback’s rate may travel from 70 to 100 yen, while in 2010 it traded between 80.22 and 94.99 yen.
As a result, UBS thinks that companies need to increase hedges against greater exchange rates fluctuation.

[COLOR="green"]Deutsche Bank: necessary EBC steps counter the debt crisis[/COLOR]
Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG believe that the European Central Bank has to join efforts with the euro zone’s commercial banks in order to combat the region’s debt crisis.
According to them, the ECB could encourage lenders to buy bonds of indebted nations – Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. This may be achieved if the central bank limits collateral for 1-year central bank loans against a pledge of investment-grade sovereign papers rated less than AAA. As a result, banks won’t need to give more collateral in case the value of the risky bonds drops, so the lenders will become more eager to hold these debt securities.
The specialists note that the yields on the periphery debt seem to be quite attractive for investors. All that’s necessary is to grant the marker players more freedom.
Deutsche Bank’s offer would reduce pressure on the ECB that has purchased since May the bonds of suffering European economies by 69 billion euro. In addition, governments will be able to cut their budget deficits, while the plan won’t let them relax too much as the collateral would re-enter the market after a year.
The strategists note that the plan will be really effective if European governments, in their turn, will conduct long-term measures such as strengthening the rules for fiscal discipline in the euro-area and the ECB indicates it will raise in 2011 its benchmark interest rate from the record minimum of 1% if the euro area’s economy manages to hold such move.

[COLOR="green"]ING Bank: Bank of England won’t raise rates[/COLOR]
Analysts at ING Bank claim that although the recent British macroeconomic data turned out to be rather positive, the possibility that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in 2011 seems to be thin as the negative risks for the country’s economy haven’t been eliminated yet. Never the less, as the prospects of the second round of the quantitative easing are fading away, pound will manage to gain some support.
The specialists believe that BOE Monetary policy committee (MPC) will split into 3 groups with Sentance and Posen loyal to their opposing positions (first calling for the interest rate hike and the second – for the QE), while the most policymakers keep seeing the risks of both reducing growth and rising inflation. The BOE MPC December rate decision will be released at 12:00 GMT.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: pound may rise to $1.5910[/COLOR]
Strategists at Barclays Capital note that pound’s advance versus the greenback from November minimum at 1.5484 is continuing and that sterling may strengthen to the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.5910.
If the British currency closes the day above this level, it will be possible to conclude, according to Barclays, that the current move is more than just a bounce within the downtrend and pond may climb to 1.6125-85.
Yesterday's spike low at 1.5665 is currently acting as support for the rate, claim the specialists.


[COLOR="green"]10/12/10

UBS: USD/JPY trade volume restored [/COLOR]

Analysts at UBS AG claim that Japanese monetary authorities will have to confront the “full force” of the market if they decide to conduct another currency intervention to stop yen’s appreciation versus the greenback.
According to the specialists, after Japan intervened in the foreign-exchange market on September 15 trading volumes of the pair USD/JPY have significantly declined as hedge funds and other investors became very cautious and left the market. Now, as 10-year Treasury yields began rising in November and reached a 6-month high this week 2-way flows in dollar-yen returned to the pre-intervention level.
UBS believes that if US yields fall back, even temporarily, and Japan is forced to intervene again to prevent dollar from falling, the country’s Ministry of Finance will have to act against the full force of the bearish market.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY is declining to 83.40[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that US dollar is fluctuating under the recent maximums at 84.30 and 84.39 trading versus Japanese yen. In their view, the greenback’s likely to hold today below these levels.
If the pair USD/JPY closes the day under its 9-day MA at 83.37, it will test on the downside the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and then decline to the 26-day MA at 82.48 forming a potential small “double top” in the 84.31/84.41 area.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to sell at 83.65 adding to 84.00 and stop above 84.50. Yen may fall to 83.40/83.00 and possibly to 82.35.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: bearish view on EUR/CHF[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at UBS AG keep betting on euro’s decline versus the Swiss franc. According to them, the pair EUR/CHF may find support at 1.2933, while its growth will be limited by the resistance at 1.3229.
If the single currency breaks below the mentioned support, it will be poised to drop to 1.2766. The pair EUR/CHF is currently trading in the 1.2990 area.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound won’t rise above $1.5823/90[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect that pound’s advance versus US dollar will be capped by the resistance in the 1.5823/90 area representing the resistance line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November’s decline. The specialists note that if the pair GBP/USD fails at its current trading levels it will be pulled back down to 1.5650 or even lower.
If sterling loses its strength and goes down, it will likely close below the double Fibonacci support at 1.5510/05 (38.2% retracement of growth from May to November) to the 1.5296/1.5363 zone of September minimum and 200-day MA.

[COLOR="green"]Rabobank: buy Aussie and loonie on the dips[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Rabobank claim that any decline in commodity currencies due to the potential increase in China’s interest rates during the next few days should be regarded as an opportunity to buy them.
The specialists draw investors’ attention to the fact that Chinese monetary authorities have undertaken a lot of monetary easing at the end of 2008, so the tightening measures that they are to conduct now will be considered by the market as a kind of policy normalization. One more factor in favor of commodity currencies is connected, as a matter of fact, with high commodity prices.
As a result, the bank notes that any retreats of Australian and Canadian dollars will be likely reversed.

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  #100  
Old 14-12-2010, 13:42
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[COLOR="Green"]14/12/10

BoA-Merrill Lynch: yuan’s undervalued only by 3-4%[/COLOR]

Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch claim that Chinese yuan seems to be rather close to its fair value and is undervalued only by 3-4%. The specialists note that China’s currency appreciated in real terms since 2005, while the country’s current account surplus has significantly declined.
Merrill Lynch expects that in 2011 Asian currencies will keep advancing, but not very strongly as most of them are now fairly valued. Taking into account increasing inflationary pressure and monetary tightening, the bank advises to decrease investments in Chinese equities and not invest in Hong Kong.

[COLOR="green"]DBS Bank: China’s in favor of euro’s strengthening[/COLOR]
Strategists at DBS Bank expect that euro and the pair USD/CNY will strengthen. In their view, this will happen as China’s diversifying its foreign exchange reserves from the greenbacks in favor of the single currency.
The specialists note that Chinese authorities regard US economic and fiscal problems more serious than the European ones. China approves of euro area’s decision to aim at the long-term stability of euro, even though the austerity measures will certainly harm the region’s growth in the short term.
Stronger euro will make yuan rise helping China to fight rising inflation. In addition, DBS believes that the market prefers China to raise the reserve requirement ratio instead of lifting up the interest rates as it reassures investors that China’s economic growth pace is high enough.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro will rise above $1.3472[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the single currency’s going up today versus the greenback even despite the gloomy comment from the British ex-Prime Minister Gordon Brown who said that a failure of the Euro would be an economic and political disaster.
The pair EUR/USD bounced from the 9-day MA as the Chinkou Span was driven by November’s sharply rising daily Ichimoku Cloud. Today euro will try to overcome the 26-day MA at the 1.3472 level representing the bottom of the Cloud and 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance. In addition, more gains of the European currency will occur in case of more short coverings, believe the specialists.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy at 1.3400 adding to 1.3300 and stopping below 1.3150. The pair’s expected to rise to 1.3625 and then to 1.3800.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY may decline[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY looks instable as it’s trading in the range between the recent maximum at 84.41 and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud found slightly above 83.00.
The specialists expect that if the greenback closes the day below its 9-day MA at 83.36, momentum will become downward and the rate will slip to 83.15 and then to 82.35.
Mizuho recommends selling US currency on the growth to 83.75 stopping above 84.50.

[COLOR="green"]Analysts’ comments ahead of FOMC Statement[/COLOR]
The FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be announced today at 8:15pm GMT. Below there are some analysts’ comments on the matter.
Analysts at Barclays Bank Plc note that the Federal Reserve may underline today that it’s going to continue the current quantitative easing justifying such policy by high unemployment rate and sluggish inflation. As a result, US mid- and long- term yields as well as dollar, especially the pair USD/JPY, may find themselves under pressure.
Currency strategists at Nomura believe that more time has to pass before investors will make out whether the US economic recovery is sustainable enough to drive up yields. As soon as American economy begins improving, the county’s investors will become more eager to take risks and go overseas looking for higher yields. As a result, the demand for the greenback will diminish and the currency will remain weak.
Specialists at UniCredit say that the single currency may keep trying to climb to the key resistance at 1.35. However, today’s data and event can create a threat for euro. Investors shouldn’t forget that the euro zone’s problems are far from being solved, claims UniCredit.

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  #101  
Old 16-12-2010, 13:51
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[COLOR="Green"]16/12/2010

UBS: EUR/CHF may rebound to 1.30[/COLOR]

Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision will be announced at 0830 GMT today.
Analysts at BNP Paribas believe that Switzerland’s monetary authorities won’t raise the rates today even though the country’s economic data so far was really encouraging. The reason for the central bank to refrain from monetary tightening is strong national currency that renewed yesterday its record maximum versus euro at 1.2756. The SNB may marginally revise up its 2.5% GDP estimate for 2010, but is likely to announce forecast for 2011 growth below 2.0%, claims BNP.
Currency strategists at UBS AG note that, as they have predicted, the pair EUR/CHF hit their long-term downside target at 1.28. Franc appreciated because of the euro zone’s debt problems, lack of liquidity and investors expecting SNB to be more hawkish at today's quarterly meeting. The specialists warn that the single currency may rebound initially to 1.30. In their view, Swiss central bank will have to show some dovish intentions.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank recommend selling EUR/CHF on its advance[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the single currency will remain under pressure trading versus Swiss franc. According to them, as long as the pair EUR/CHF is trading below resistance area at 1.3020/70, it risks dropping to 1.2710 and 1.2657.
The specialists advise to sell euro if it advances to 1.2935 and 1.30 stopping at 1.3070 and taking profit at 1.2660.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: negative pressure on sterling’s increasing[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Barclays Capital note that while investors are curtailing their activities ahead of the year-end, British currency looks extremely vulnerable.
The specialists claim that sterling seems to be under negative pressure in the majority of its crosses. The pair GBP/CHF slumped yesterday to the record minimum, GBP/AUD reached this year’s low and GBP/USD declined.
According to Barclays, if pound keeps losing its weakening will take form of the vast downtrend. In such case GBP/USD and EUR/GBP risk breaking support at 1.5485 and 0.8550 weighting on sterling even more.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: short term outlook for EUR/USD deteriorated[/COLOR]
The single currency dropped by almost 300 pips during the previous 2 days trading versus US dollar as the pair EUR/USD declined from 1.3500 to 1.3200. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that such fall worsened the short term outlook for euro.
The specialists note that the pair tried to consolidate above 1.1.3470/75 resistance area, but the bulls didn’t prove to be strong enough. As a result, euro’s target moved down to 200-day MA at 1.3107 and the recent minimum at 1.2970.
If EUR/USD manages to overcome 1.3475/00, it will get a chance to rise to the 55-day MA at 1.3658.

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  #102  
Old 17-12-2010, 16:22
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[COLOR="Green"]RBS: drawbacks of Europe's monetary authorities[/COLOR]

Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc believe that the lack of policy response to the critical situation in the region from the euro area’s monetary authorities makes investors lose confidence in the ability if European officials to handle the crisis. RBS strategists note that tools existing at the European level can be used only then the crisis has materialized. What is necessary, according to RBS, it’s the crisis prevention, not the crisis management.
As a result, the specialists expect confidence loss will be the main driver of the market in the short term. In their view, bailouts for Portugal and Spain are likely and the steps in this direction may be taken over the coming month. RBS estimates that the EU has enough funds at least to respond to the Spanish problem in the short term.
All in all, the analysts regard the ECB bond purchase program as the optimal sort of defense line claiming that it’s very important for the European Central bank to be forceful and confident in what it’s doing.

[COLOR="green"]Credit Suisse: US and Europe in 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at Credit Suisse Asset Management gave their opinion about US quantitative easing and the outlook for European economies in 2011.
The specialists believe that American QE will last at least during the first quarter of 2011 and probably during the second quarter. As US economy starts to accelerate towards 3% growth then probably the Fed will start to reverse pond purchases and that, according to Credit Suisse, could be the major risk for markets next year.
As for the euro area, the strategists expect further credit downgrades of the indebted countries which find themselves under pressure. Credit Suisse also notes that the growth differential between Germany and the rest of Northern Europe and the stressed economies is going to remain very wide and deep. It’s quite difficult to see economies like Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal generate strong growth next year and that’s going to the one of the major problems in the region, claim in the bank pointing at the fact that Spanish and Italian markets underperform versus the German one this year by almost 30%. Such underperformance is thought to continue in the first half of 2011.
Credit Suisse underlines that there’s now a significant political shift going on in the interests of all governments: the risk of the sovereign debt is transferred of going to be transferred from taxpayers and governments to investors, therefore European bond markets are trading very differently today and this difference will continue at least for the next 2-3 years.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/USD big move at the beginning of 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at Mizuho Securities Co. believe that the single currency may undertake a big move at the beginning of the next year trading versus the greenback. The assumptions were made on the basis of Ichimoku analysis.
The specialists note that the lines Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B are converging, compressing the Cloud at $1.36 area on December 31. The big move tends to occur around a twist of an Ichimoku Cloud. Before such significant change of the rate the pair EUR/USD may trade in range between $1.30 and $1.34.
It can’t be said, however, which direction such a big move will take. The strategists suggest that easing of tensions relating to the European debt crisis may help the euro to strengthen.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/GBP likely to gain[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has overcome 200-day MA at 0.8516 trading versus the British pound and renewed 3-week maximum at 0.8552.
According to the specialists, if EUR/GBP closes the day above 0.8516 it will manage to climb above resistance in 0.8605/0.8640 area limited by the 55-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: US dollar risks falling to 0.90 francs[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at MIG Bank claim that the pair USD/CHF finds itself under renewed pressure and their previous idea that the rate has set a base at 0.9462 doesn’t seem as certain as before.
According to the specialists, the greenback has to climb above 0.9738 and then 0.9851 or it could slump breaking the record minimum at 0.9462 hit on October 14 on its way down to 0.90.
USD/CHF renewed 6-week minimum at 0.9558 and is currently trading in area.

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  #103  
Old 10-01-2011, 16:03
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[COLOR="Green"]
SEB: EUR/USD will fall to 1.2710[/COLOR]

Analysts at SE Banken claim that last week the trade ended very bearish for the pair EUR/USD. The specialists note that there was a downside key-week reversal and a “bearish engulfing” pattern that confirmed that fact that the downtrend resumed. In their view, any advance from Monday's minimum at 1.2860 will be corrective and will bring the rate in the near future to the new minimums in the 1.2710 zone.
Currency strategists at Commerzbank also believe that in the coming weeks the single currency will remain under pressure as the euro zone debt crisis is likely to worsen. The economists mentioned the events in the indebted Belgium where there’s no political leader due to the government crisis that lasts already a month. While the greenback has overcome the impact of the discouraging economic data, euro is affected from several directions.


[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: in the first quarter euro will fall to $1.20 [/COLOR]
The single currency fell last week breaking down through the 200-day MA and the 6-month uptrend support line. Technical analysts at Commerzbank project that the pair EUR/USD will face strong negative pressure. The specialists also note that the European currency has so far broken below the “symmetrical triangle” formation. As a result, the power of bears increased.
According to Commerzbank, euro will weaken to 1.2000 in the first quarter of 2011. If it attempts to advance, resistance levels will be found at 1.3020/74 and 1.3165.


[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY range in the 1st quarter – 80-85 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the greenback hovers at a very thin daily Ichimoku Cloud trading versus Japanese yen and the small “spike high” formed on Friday ahead of trend line resistance underlines instability at current levels.
According to the bank, it’s necessary to enter small shorts at 83.13/83.40 stopping above 83.75. The greenback’s going to decline to 82.50/82.35 and then to 81.50.
The specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY will fluctuate sideways staying in range between 80.00 and 85.00 during the entire January and maybe the whole first quarter of the year.


[COLOR="green"]US dollar will strengthen in 2011[/COLOR]
Some analysts whose forecasts were the most accurate by the results second half of 2010 believe that the greenback will be the best performer this year as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing will stimulate the US economy. According to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg, in 2011 American economy will expand by 2.6%, European – by 1.5%, Japan’s – by 1.3% and Britain’s – by 2%.
The investors seem to refocus their attention from the Fed’s plan to print cash to buy $600 billion of Treasuries to the euro zone’s debt crisis, deflation in Japan and UK austerity programs.
Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. and SJS Markets Ltd. expect US currency to gain versus euro, yen and pound. Specialists at Wells Fargo are looking forward to 5% advance of dollars rate against the single currency and 11% versus yen. In their view, the greenback will be supported by rising interest rates on US bonds.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas expect USD/CHF to decline[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at BNP Paribas note that last week the greenback made one of its biggest weekly advances versus Swiss franc of the past year. As a result, there was a weekly bullish snap-back reversal signal, while weekly momentum gained on the bullish weekly divergence.
According to the bank, it’s quite likely that 0.9306 will be the major base for the rate. If the pair USD/CHF breaks above resistance at 0.9735 and 0.9915, it will get strengths to rise to 1.0230 and possibly 1.0625

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  #104  
Old 13-01-2011, 16:24
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[COLOR="Green"]13/01/11

Mitsubishi UFJ: reasons to buy euro[/COLOR]

The single currency was declining versus the greenback during the major part of the Asian trade before it bounced from the intraday minimum at 1.3088 to the 1.3140 area.
Dealers at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking claim that possible reason to buy euro may be as The Irish Times newspaper says citing unspecified source that EU ministers are to discuss next week the possibility of lowering the 5.7% interest rate on Irish bailout loans. In addition, the specialists point at the fact that investors’ optimism about today’s Spanish and Italian bond auctions seems to get stronger as Portugal's auction that took place on Wednesday turned out to be rather successful.
According to the strategists at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking, the pair EUR/USD may climb today to 1.3150.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: EUR/USD may advance to 1.35[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Barclays Capital believe that the 1.3130/50 zone will limit further growth of the pair EUR/USD. However, the intraday charts don’t show signs of topping, so there’s some risk of further gains.
If the single currency manages to overcome 1.3150, it will have all chances to move higher to 1.3430/1.35 before the signs of topping will reappear.
According to the specialists, the outlook for euro will become more bearish only below 1.2960.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro will reverse after reaching 1.3179/95[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the European currency went up versus the greenback from the base of the short-term bearish channel at 1.2874. In their view, euro’s target lies in the 1.3179/95 area where the bulls are likely to fail. Then, according to the specialists, the pair EUR/USD will fall back to 1.2860/36.
The strategists claim that when markets break down from “symmetrical triangles” the rate frequently returns to point of break down and this is what’s happening now.
In case euro overcomes 1.3195, it would become able to advance to the 55-day MA at 1.3384 where the bank once again expects to see a downside reversal.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas and Barclays expect EUR/CHF to rise[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that improving risk sentiment helped the single currency to recover versus the Swiss franc. Never the less, the pair EUR/CHF hasn’t ruined its downtrend from November’s peak. The specialists say that for this to happen euro should close the day above 1.2765, so it will gain momentum to rise towards 1.2940 and 1.30.
Currency strategists at BNP Paribas say that the coming events seem to be positive for the cross. These are the hopes the European rescue package will be expanded, SNB Jordan's comments there are signs the Swiss economic dynamic will slow in 2011 and Friday's meeting between the Swiss government and business to discuss concerns about the national currency’s strength. According to BNP Paribas, EUR/CHF will manage to climb to 1.30.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: GBP/USD rose to the Ichimoku Cloud[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that sterling not only broke above the 26-day MA due to the rising 9-day MA, but also broke above the channel resistance. As a result, momentum became bullish and British pound’s rate approached the thin daily Ichimoku Cloud.
According to the specialists, the pair GBP/USD is likely to struggle at these levels for another 1-2 days. Mizuho recommends trying small long positions if the rate goes down to 1.5700 stopping below 1.5600. The targets for the pair are at 1.5800 and then at 1.6000.

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  #105  
Old 14-01-2011, 12:29
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[COLOR="Green"]14/01/11

Credit Agricole: Aussie may fall to $0.9752[/COLOR]

Analysts at Credit Agricole note that Australian dollar wasn’t successful at the beginning of the year trading versus its US counterpart. In their view, Aussie has more difficulties on its way: the currency will find itself under the negative pressure as investors aren’t sure any more that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift up interest rates, while export income will lower due to the flooding that causes mining disruptions. In addition, the specialists underline that no one can predict what the extent of damage from flooding will be.
According to Credit Agricole, there’s the chance that the pair AUD/USD will fall to the technical support at 0.9752 or possibly even lower to the 0.960/70 zone. The analysts, however, underline that any decline of Australia’s dollar will be temporary providing better levels to buy the currency.
The strategists expect AUD/USD to finish the first quarter at 1.02. By the end of the year the pair’s rate is likely to reach 1.06, claims Credit Agricole.

[COLOR="green"]Ueda Harlow: euro will rise to $1.3499[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd. believe that the single currency will climb to 1-month maximum versus the greenback.
The specialists note that yesterday the pair EUR/USD managed to rise above key technical levels. According to the daily Ichimoku chart, euro got above conversion and base lines approaching the Cloud. These lines will likely become support for the rate. If the conversion and base lines create a floor, the Ichimoku Cloud will come down and upward pressure for the European currency will gradually increase.
Ueda Harlow projects that EUR/USD may advance to $1.3433 reached on January 4 and December 14 maximum at $1.3499. If euro overcomes these levels, the trend will switch to the upward mode. The lagging Chinkou Span will enter the Cloud and euro should keep advancing, say the analysts.

[COLOR="green"]JPMorgan: Ireland’s funding rate should be reduced[/COLOR]
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co think that the EU has to reduce the 5.8% average interest rate on 85 billion-euro ($113 billion) emergency aid to Ireland by 50% or 250 basis points. Otherwise, the indebted country won’t be able to get out of the crisis without debt restructuring. The borrowing rate is critical given that economic growth will be very weak for some time due to severe fiscal tightening.
Specialists at Barclays Capital share the opinion that the funding costs for Ireland are to be lowered by 200-300 basis points.
According to the IMF forecast, Irish economy will add less than 1% this year and below 2% in 2012. EU estimates that the ratio of Irish debt to GDP will reach 114% next year, while in 2007 it was equal only to 25%. The difference in yield between 10-year Irish debt and benchmark German bonds staying above 500 basis points, compared with an average of about 60 during the past decade.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/USD will climb to 1.35[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the single currency is showing the biggest daily advances versus the greenback during several months.
The specialists claim that euro’s rally this week from Monday’s minimum at 1.2873 repeats last week down move like a mirror. In their view, such dynamics of the pair EUR/USD can be explained by the low trade volume at the markets.
According to Mizuho, if euro closes the week above 1.3400, bullish momentum will significantly strengthen.
The analysts advise investors opening small longs on a drop to 1.3315 but only if prepared to add to 1.3200. Stops should be placed below 1.3100.
EUR/USD may rise to 1.3500, where another short-covering round is likely.

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  #106  
Old 18-01-2011, 09:52
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[COLOR="Green"]17/01/10

Commerzbank: 1.5932 – resistance for GBP/USD[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the key resistance for the pair GBP/USD lies at 1.5932. In their view, this level will be able to hold sterling’s advance.
If the British currency falls below 1.5680, the upside momentum will disappear and pound will risk falling down to 1.5580 and 1.5540. In case pound rises above 1.5932, the uptrend will extend to the August maximum of 1.60 and possibly even to 1.6090.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: bearish pressure on euro will ease only above $1.3500[/COLOR]
Analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency added about 600 pips last week and managed to ease the near-term downside pressure failing although to remove it completely. The specialists say that the current bearish trend will end in case euro reaches 1.3500 and the pair EUR/USD will be able to rise to 1.3739/86 and then to 1.3978/1.4000.
Never the less, the bank supposes that the most likely outcome is that the European currency will fail on its way to 1.3500 and drop to 1.2795 level representing the 61.8% retracement of the move seen in the second half of 2010.

S[COLOR="green"]tandard Life: dollar will gain versus euro in the first quarter[/COLOR]
Analysts at Standard Life Investment claim that the greenback will advance versus the single currency in the first quarter of the year as investors are lured by the superior returns available in the United States.
According to the specialists, the greenback will be supported by higher Treasury yields relative to bunds encouraging investors to come to the US. Euro, in its turn, is going to find itself under negative pressure until Europe’s monetary authorities manage to restore market’s confidence by increasing the size of European Financial Stability Facility and issuing joint euro-region bonds to support indebted nations.
Standard Life also claims that it may happen that the next time sovereign debt crisis may involve a rather larger economy than the ones that have suffered so far. The pair EUR/USD lost 7% in 2010 as Greece and Ireland applied to the EU and the IMF for bail out. As a result, market’s risk aversion increased and the demand for safer US assets has gone up.
In addition, the currency strategists recommend investors buying British pounds and selling Japanese yen.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: dollar won’t go down below 82.00 yen[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Commerzbank claim that after US dollar weakened last week versus Japanese yen further declines of the pair USD/JPY will be limited by the 82.34/82.00 zone. The specialists note that there’s a small channel resistance line at 83.25. After overcoming it the pair may advance to 83.70 on its way to November and December maximums at 84.41 and 84.51 respectively.
Analysts at Credit Suisse think that in 2011 the greenback will trade at 80-86 yen. The specialists note that there are 90% chances that US currency will be able stay at the levels above 70 yen. In their view, Japanese companies have shown that they can manage at 80 yen per dollar.

[COLOR="green"]The SNB lost the record sum in 2010[/COLOR]
The Swiss National Bank announced that it may have suffered a record loss in 2010 as the fall of the European currency reduced the value of its currency reserves by almost 21 billion Swiss francs ($21.8 billion) or 4% of Switzerland’s GDP. According to Switzerland’s central bank 26 billion exchange-rate-related losses were a bit compensated by 6 billion francs gold reserves value gain.
In the first half of 2010 the SNB purchased foreign currencies at an unprecedented pace in order to stop the excessive appreciation of its national currency. Such policy threatened to hurt the recovery and spark deflation, so in June Swiss policy makers ended their interventions. At the same time by the end of the year the situation in the euro area worsened and the pair EUR/CHF fell on December 30 to the record minimum at 1.2400.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: pound may return to $1.57[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that the British currency went above 1.59 versus the greenback breaking up through the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance. According to the specialists, pound’s going up towards 1.60. At the same time, the specialists warn that daily momentum studies point at pending bullish exhaustion that may mean that the pair GBP/USD is likely to cap above 1.59 and retreat to 1.57.

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  #107  
Old 18-01-2011, 15:32
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[COLOR="Green"]
Mizuho: EUR/JPY may fall to 2010 low[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the single currency may fall to 2010 minimum versus yen as it didn’t manage to break through the Ichimoku Cloud.
As it may be seen on the daily Ichimoku chart, the first leading-span line, which forms the lower part of the Сloud, has limited the advance of euro since the end of November. As a result, the pair EUR/JPY may fall to last year’s minimum at 105.44 yen if it gets down below the so-called base line at 109.51 yen.
The specialists note that the euro’s bearish trend isn’t over yet, although the markets might have thought it will continue to rise after last week’s 3.4% rally, the biggest advance since 5 days ended September 17.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: USD/JPY will break support at 82.30[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citigroup note that the pair USD/JPY finds itself under pressure affected by investors’ selling of EUR/JPY.
The specialists note that Japanese exporters are lowering offers in USD/JPY as they didn’t manage to sell the greenback above 84.00. In their view, US currency will eventually break through stops at the 82.30 area representing the base of the Ichimoku Cloud.

[COLOR="green"]Kshitij: GBP/USD may rise this week to $1.62[/COLOR]
Analysts at Indian firm Kshitij Consultancy Services Team note that the British currency managed to recover from the minimum versus the greenback at 1.5405 hit on January 7 and erase December's losses rising above 1.5950.
The specialists expect sterling to keep climbing this week towards 1.6200. According to them, key support levels are found in the 1.5820/00 area that’s not likely to be ruined in the near term.

[COLOR="green"]Euro’s strengthening ahead of EU decisions [/COLOR]
The European currency went up versus the greenback for the sixth time during the past week due to the expectations that the European policy makers will take steps to stem debt crisis in the region.
Yesterday euro-area finance ministers pledged to strengthen the euro area’s safety net but made no firm decision about possible additional crisis measures. The attention is now focused on the Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers due to be held later today.
Economists at Bank of New York Mellon called euro zone’s crisis-management policies reasonably effective. In their view, the relatively healthy Spanish bond sale indicates that the confidence in the euro zone increased. Spain’s borrowing costs fell at today’s sale of 5.5 billion euro in short-term bills.
ZEW Economic Sentiment index for Germany climbed from 4.3 points in December to 15.4 points in January, while the indicator for the euro area rose from 15.5 to 25.4 points.
Russia's Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin claimed that the country may be interested in buying bonds from the euro zone's European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Kudrin's comments turned out to be positive for euro in the short-term, as they come just weeks after China and Japan both promised to invest in euro zone and peripheral debt, claim the analysts at HSBC. The specialists, however, aren’t sure if euro’s able to test the recent maximums taking into account uncertainty surrounding talks on the euro zone safety fund.

[COLOR="green"]Citi: euro will return to $1.30[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Citi claim that, according to the information provided by the European monetary authorities during the recent days, it’s possible to conclude that that they just don't feel the same sense of urgency to conduct additional measures counter the debt crisis that the market does.
The specialists believe that euro’s rate will tend to decline. In their view, the single currency will retreat to $1.30 in coming weeks.
Resistance for the pair EUR/USD is found in the near term at the 100-day moving average in the $1.3423 area. As the single currency didn’t manage to break above its mid-December peak of $1.3500, it may remain trapped in range between 1.3500 and 1.2860.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: pound will keep gaining if it closes the week above $1.6013[/COLOR]
British pound managed to overcome resistance at 1.5911 and 1.6013 to advance to the 8-week maximum at 1.6058.
Analysts at MIG Bank note that if the pair GBP/USD managed to close the week above 1.6013, it will get enough strength to revisit the last major maximum at 1.6299 and then November high at 1.6878 and the August high at 1.7043.
If sterling fails to do that, its rate will cap and drop to 1.5665 and 1.5345.

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  #108  
Old 20-01-2011, 08:43
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Default 19/01/11

[COLOR="Green"]Saxo bank: analysis euro of dynamics[/COLOR]
Analysts at Saxo bank note that even though the European policymakers didn’t decide on any increase in the European crisis fund, discussions to give the rescue fund more flexibility were enough support the single currency and make it gain a little more.
Yesterday stronger European data had given euro an early boost, letting the single currency return above 1.34 versus the greenback and reach the levels just above last Friday’s maximum. Loose chatter that Portugal may skip next week’s auction due to the fact they currently have enough cash helped the final push higher, while Russia intimating that they may also support the EFSF lent further support.
However, not everything went so well, with the Dutch finance minister rejecting the idea of expanding the emergency fund while the European Central Bank claimed it expects more banks to fail stress tests this year than in 2010. In addition, pound was more attractive for investors as UK inflation remained persistently high (CPI rose 1.0% m/m and 3.7% y/y), well above the BOE’s target level and fueled talk of imminent rate hikes.
As for today’s data, in Europe the market’s attention will concentrate on euro zone’s current account and construction output along with Britain’s unemployment. For the US session, focus switches to Canada’s manufacturing sales and the BOC’s monetary policy report while the US sees building permits and housing starts.


[COLOR="green"]Westpac: RBA won’t raise rates until the second half of the year[/COLOR]

Australian consumer confidence fell in January to a 7-month minimum of 104.6 from 111 in December due to the concerns that flood damage will weaken the nation’s economy.
According to the estimates of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. economists, the reconstruction of affected region may cost A$20 billion ($19.9 billion) or about 1.5% of GDP.
Reserve Bank of Australia left the overnight cash rate target at 4.75% last month, after 7 increases since October 2009 naming its policy “mildly restrictive.”
Analysts at Westpac claim that even before the advent of the floods they didn’t expect another rate increase until the second quarter of 2011. Now the next rate increase may be put off to the second half of the year. The specialists are sure that the rates will remain unchanged on the February 1 meeting.


[COLOR="green"]Credit Agricole: euro will fall to $1.3100 in 6 months[/COLOR]
Analysts at Credit Agricole expect that the European currency will remain under pressure during the major part of 2011. In their view, any rebound of the pair EUR/USD won’t last long.
The specialists claim that the absence of resolution to peripheral debt concerns will remain the main negative factor for euro in the coming months.
According to Credit Agricole, the actions of the European policymakers aren’t likely to become more convincing and uncertainty won’t leave the markets, while the growth differential in the euro region’s going to further widen.
The strategists forecast that in 3 months the pair EUR/USD will trade at 1.3700 and in 6 months it may fall to 1.3100.


[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: 1.3500 – resistance for EUR/USD[/COLOR]
The single currency that began rising last week continued strengthening this week approaching resistance area at 1.3500.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the bears will remain stronger until euro’s rate is below this level with the possibility if decline to the 1.2795 level representing 61.8% retracement of the move seen in the second half of 2010.
If EUR/USD manages to overcome 1.3500, it will be able to climb to 1.3739/86 and then 1.3978/1.4000.


[COLOR="green"]Bank of Canada left the rate at 1%[/COLOR]
Canadian dollar dropped versus the greenback from yesterday’s maximum at 0.9836, the highest level since May 2008, as the Bank of Canada decided yesterday to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%.
Economists at National Bank of Canada note that Canada’s central bank was more negative about the possible challenges to the country’s economic growth than expected and has made it clear that rates won’t be raised in the coming months.
Specialists at TD Securities believe that the Bank will have time to assess the impact that the crosscurrent of global forces has on the Canadian economy because of spare capacity and core inflation well below 2%. In their view, the Bank of Canada is under no pressure of emergency to follow the path of monetary tightening. The analysts don’t expect the rate hike until July.
Strategists at HSBC say that Canadian central bank looks satisfied with its policy framework and won’t move forward that will, of course, weight on loonie.


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  #109  
Old 20-01-2011, 15:02
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[COLOR="Green"]20/01/11

HSBC: China will lift up rates already in January[/COLOR]

Analysts at HSBC believe that China will raise interest rates for the first time this year before Lunar New Year, in other words, within January. The specialists note that as the released today data showed that Chinese economic growth turned out to be higher than expected the country’s authorities can now focus on stemming inflation.
China’s GDP gained 9.8% in the final quarter of 2010 compared with the previous year’s level, while the economists were looking forward only to 9.4% advance. The country’s CPI rose by 4.6% in December on the annual basis after it had added 5.1% in November.
The strategists regard the easing of inflationary pressure as temporary and think that inflation’s likely to rebound in the coming months due to seasonally buoyant demand around the Lunar New Year, with a shortage of food supply due to a cold winter, excessive credit growth and rising global commodity prices.
According to HSBC, China will increase banks' reserve requirement ratio by 150 basis points and make two 25bp rate hikes in the next 6 months.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro failed to close above $1.35 yesterday[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank say that the fact that the single currency didn’t manage yesterday to close above 1.35 versus the greenback seems to be disappointing.
The pair EUR/USD declined from 8-week maximum at 1.3538 reached on Wednesday to trade currently in the 1.3460 area.
The specialists believe that euro’s rate will retain a neutral to bid tone while it holds above its 20-day moving average at 1.3223. The bank still doesn’t eliminate the possibility of the pair’s advance towards 1.37 and 1.40.

[COLOR="green"]Daiwa SB Investments: Aussie declined versus yen[/COLOR]
Australian dollar fell to minimum since December 7 trading versus Japanese yen. Specialists at Daiwa SB Investments suppose that Aussie’s decline happened as Asian equities perform weak today and, consequently, investors’ risk aversion’s increasing.
The main factors pushing AUD/JPY down were ongoing concerns about the flooding and lower AUD/USD.
According to the strategists support for the pair UD/JPY lies at 81.25. Daiwa SB Investments also note that it’s necessary to pay attention to the Dollar Index as if it falls below the important technical support of 78.00, US currency may significantly drop especially versus euro.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: NZD/USD will trade sideways in the medium term [/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Commerzbank expect that the pair NZD/USD will trade sideways in the medium term. According to the specialists, the attempts of kiwi to get higher will be limited by 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rate’s decline from November to December at 0.7854 or by November 11 maximum at 0.7876.

[COLOR="green"]Credit Agricole recommends selling pound [/COLOR]
Analysts at Credit Agricole advise investors to look forward to pound’s decline in the short term even despite yesterday’s more hawkish speech from Bank of England MPC member Adam Posen.
The bank recommends selling sterling especially versus Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
In addition, the strategists say that CBI industrial trends survey that is released at 11:00 GMT may turn out to be worse than expected increasing the negative pressure on the British currency.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY may fall to 80.21[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim note that US dollar closed on Wednesday below the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud trading versus Japanese yen.
As a result, the specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY may be now poised to decline to January's minimum at 80.93 and then to October minimums in the 80.21 area.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to sell the greenback at 82.25/40 stopping above 82.75 for targets of 81.85 and 81.00.

[COLOR="green"]Nomura: sell euro versus British pound
[/COLOR]
Analysts at Nomura International advise investors to sell the single currency versus British pound. In their view, fiscal restructuring conducted by Britain’s government will be credible and supportive for the national currency.
In addition, UK inflation is likely to remain high during the next few months making the Bank of England raise interest rates earlier than expected. One more factor positive for sterling is the overseas investors’ demand for gilts.
Investors should sell buy pounds around the level of 84.50 British pence per euro with a target of 81 pence stopping above 86.50 pence.
UK inflation accelerated to an 8-month maximum in December as food and fuel prices rose. Consumer prices climbed 3.7% from a year earlier after a 3.3% increase in November. In October 2010 Prime Minister David Cameron’s government announced the biggest budget cuts since World War II to curb the record budget deficit.
Nomura also recommended selling the euro versus the Australian dollar as the economic impact of the flooding in the South Pacific nation may be limited.

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  #110  
Old 21-01-2011, 16:17
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[COLOR="Green"]21/01/11

British economy and pound in 2011[/COLOR]

Telegraph columnist Roger Bootle gave his thoughts about the outlook for the UK economy in 2011 and the vital role that sterling can play in a recovery.
The specialist expects Britain’s economic growth to be very weak. Bootle supports massive budget cuts conducted by the government, but thinks that austerity measures are going to affect the country’s economy in a very brutal way.
Never the less, says the financial journalist, there seems to be no alternative for the country that wants to narrow its huge budget shortfall. British consumers will have to face the shortage of mortgage credits and high taxes. However, the current situation doesn’t look like the recessions that were seen in the UK earlier as the companies aren’t shaken much. “We may see corporate investment recovering a bit,” notes Bootle.
If there will be a severe financial crisis in the euro zone, it’s quite possible that euro will weaken significantly both against dollar and pound. Bootle believes that the lowest point of sterling hit in the very financial crisis has now passed. The economist is more worried about that upside risk that will affect the country’s exports regarded currently as the main economic driver.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/CHF may rise to 1.3437[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the single currency to break above the 1.3030 trading versus Swiss franc. This level represents 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its October/July minimum.
The specialists believe that euro will be able to hold these gains. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF will advance to the 200-day MA at 1.3437.
According to Commerzbank, as Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand claimed yesterday that the risk of deflation has largely disappeared, the central bank will conduct no currency interventions in the foreseeable future. The strategists regard Hildebrand’s comments that the stability of the euro-zone is decisive for the franc as the sign of SNB’s helplessness.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: negative outlook for AUD/USD[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS are looking forward to more declines in the pair AUD/USD as the pair’s trading in the 0.9840/80 area close to the year’s minimum at 0.9804.
While interest rate support for the AUD remains structurally strong, momentum around this factor is starting to wane as RBA’s rate hike expectations are delayed on weaker weather-affected data, while encouraging US figures raise the risk of earlier removing of the Fed’s quantitative easing.
According to the specialists, Aussie will fall to 0.9700 by the middle of the year and to 0.9300 by the end of 2011.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: Aussie may keep falling[/COLOR]
Australian dollar survived yesterday the biggest decline in 8 weeks versus its US counterpart. Technical analysts at BNP Paribas claim that Aussie may get even lower if it closes below the key support level at 0.9870.
The specialists believe that the downside target for AUD/USD will lie at 0.9800 near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the currency’s rally from December 1 to December 31. Then Australia’s currency will head down to the 76.4% retracement of that move at 0.9700.
If the sell-off of the first couple of weeks of the year repeats, Aussie’s decline may extend even to 0.9625, notes BNP Paribas.

[COLOR="green"]ANZ: NZD/USD may drop to 0.7450[/COLOR]
Analysts at ANZ claim that New Zealand’s dollar is under pressure due to weak economic data released this week – forth quarter CPI and the retail sales weren’t very encouraging. In addition, there’s a demand-side pressure in the economy, note the specialists. The market begins pushing the expectations of Reserve Bank of New-Zealand’s rate hike further away.
ANZ strategists also draw investors’ attention to the fact that that in 19 out of the past 21 years the NZD/USD dipped in February getting below the Christmas Eve opening level. If this year proves to be no exception, then there is a good chance of a look towards 0.7450.


[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro will gain in case of the weekly close above $1.3400[/COLOR]
Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the single currency managed to gain bullish momentum trading versus the greenback as it rose from minimums in the 1.2870 area hit at the beginning of January to 2-month maximums in the 1.3560 zone.

The specialists claim that if the pair EUR/USD closes the week above 1.3400 moving averages will turn up and euro will gain strength to climb higher.

According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy at 1.3500 with targets at 1.3600/1.3650 and 1.3750 stopping below 1.3350.


[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: US shouldn’t threaten China with sanctions [/COLOR]
Specialists at Morgan Stanley Asia believe that threatening China with trade sanctions is now “particularly dangerous” as the United States depends increasingly on its third-largest export market to help recover from the worst recession in 7 decades. In their view, US policy makers have to put up with the fact that China is unlikely to speed up revaluation of its currency more than the pace since 2005.
President Barack Obama has set a target of doubling exports within 5 years to help drive growth that, insists Morgan Stanley, can’t be done that without China. As long as China remains on a path for gradual currency appreciation, everything will be fine, believes the bank.
Yesterday President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China met for the eighth time. They claimed that the 2 countries can keep fostering commercial ties while working through differences on currency policy and human rights. However, that didn’t stop Obama from criticizing China’s approach to yuan’s rate, blamed by his administration and lawmakers for making American exports too expensive.
Chinese authorities, in their turn, try to the country away from its export-led growth model toward relying more on consumer spending that means the necessity to stem high inflation. The country’s CPI rose by 4.6% in December on the annual basis after it had added 5.1% in November.

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  #111  
Old 24-01-2011, 16:11
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[COLOR="Green"]24/01/11

Barclays: euro will gain on oil prices’ growth[/COLOR]

Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that any further increases of the oil price will help the single currency gain versus the greenback due to the growing concerns over price rises in the euro-zone.
The specialists note that the European central bank focuses on headline inflation, while the Federal Reserve – on core inflation. As a result, oil prices will likely have a larger impact on the ECB's policy approach.
The difference in the mandates for the Fed and ECB means that oil prices are an important driver of the pair EUR/USD.

[COLOR="green"]USD/JPY may rise after FOMC statement[/COLOR]
The greenback may gain versus Japanese yen if the statement from the FOMC's meeting this week that’s taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday is more hawkish than the previous one.
Some of the more hawkish FOMC members such as Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser will exercise their voting rights at the upcoming FOMC meeting. It's necessary to watch whether the tone of the FOMC's statement suggests that there are more inflation worries.
If the statement suggests that inflationary worries are increasing, yields on the US Treasuries will rise lifting up the pair USD/JPY.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD rising towards 1.3739/89[/COLOR]
The single currency went up versus US dollar from the 1.2870 area at the beginning of January and closed last week above 1.3500. As a result, bullish pressure on the pair has significantly strengthened.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that euro will keep advancing trying to reach 1.3739/89 and potentially 1.3978/1.4000.
Never the less, in the longer term the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish as long as it’s trading below 1.4393/1.4445 (downtrend from 2008 maximum and double Fibonacci).

[COLOR="green"]Barclays: euro will gain if it closes the day above $1.3625[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that higher German yields seem to be very positive for the European currency stimulating its broad-based advance.
The specialists note that for some time EUR/USD was trading today above the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.3625. If the pair manages to close the day above this level, it’ll be able to strengthen to the monthly Cloud top in the 1.4180 area.
According to Barclays, bullish pressure will be maintained above 1.3460. Intraday support comes in between 1.3540 and 1.3525.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/CHF analysis[/COLOR]
The single currency has made 2 tops in the resistance area between 1.3030 and 1.3070 trading versus the Swiss franc.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/CHF is going to consolidate below this level. The specialists believe that euro will find support at 1.2825 and then at 1.2765/1.2700.
According to Commerzbank, as long as the European currency is trading above 1.2765/1.2700, it will be able to gain more. When euro breaks up 1.3070, it’ll get enough strength to rise to the 200-day MA at 1.3431.

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  #112  
Old 26-01-2011, 14:36
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[COLOR="Green"]
25/01/11

Citigroup: comments on EUR/USD[/COLOR]

Analysts at Citigroup claim that if the single currency breaks above 1.3700 trading versus the greenback stop loss orders should be lifted up to 1.3750, while resistance will be found in the 1.3770/80 area. The specialists think that the buyers will step in on the dips to the 1.3600 zone.
Citigroup points out that no significant data are due in the euro area, so the market’s attention will be likely focused on the launch of EUR5 billion of EFSF bonds. According to the estimates, the 5-year issue had drawn demand of more than EUR20 billion, though only EUR5 billion is expected to be offered.

[COLOR="green"]US dollar ahead of the Fed’s meeting[/COLOR]
Today begins the Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting. Ahead of US monetary authorities’ decisions the markets are concerned that US economic growth acceleration won’t be enough for monetary tightening. The greenback weakened today versus the majority of its counterparts. The pair EUR/USD is trading close to 2-month high at 1.3687.
Analysts at Bank of New Zealand note that the Fed is still worried about high unemployment (9.4% in December while the FOMC long-term target is set at 5-6%), very subdued core inflation and generally fragile outlook that, in their view, will put some pressure on the greenback and US bond yields.
It’s also expected that home prices dropped by the most since December 2009: economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that S&P/Case-Shiller index lost 1.6% in November from a year earlier. The data will be releases at 1400 GMT.
Currency strategists at UBS AG note that to support dollar’s rate in such situation US fourth quarter GDP has to be in on or above expectations. The median forecast shows the 3.5% annual growth from 2.6% rate in the previous 3 months. US GDP is due on January 28.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: 0.8640/45 – resistance for EUR/GBP[/COLOR]
The single currency rose versus the British pound from the minimums at the beginning of January in the 0.8280 area getting above resistance at 0.8550.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that euro strengthened on the general sterling’s weakness. In their view, the pair EUR/GBP will be capped by resistance at December maximum of 0.8640/45 and reverse down at this zone. According to the specialists, the outlook for the European currency is negative below 0.8640/45.
The intraday pressure, however, seems to be bullish. It will ease only if EUR/GBP drops below 0.8445/15. In such case euro would be poised to fall to the recent minimum at 0.8285.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: US dollar may rebound in the near term [/COLOR]
Currency strategists at BNP Paribas say that the greenback may rebound from the 2-month minimum versus euro during the next few days. The specialists underline that many investors went short on US dollar and the data calendar provides a number of potential triggers to unwind these positions.
The FOMC meeting Wednesday will be very interesting in the wake of reports that the Fed plans to review its economic forecasts on improved confidence and recovery.
While the Fed is expected to maintain the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) until June, a suggestion that the program will be actually finished June may be a good driver for the greenback, believes BNP Paribas.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: USD/CHF will trade at 0.93-0.98[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that Swiss franc may appreciate versus the greenback moving to 0.94 or even 0.93. Swiss currency seems to be strong on the broad basis. At the same time, the specialists warn that bullish weekly divergence shows that the pair USD/CHF will range trade between 0.93 and 0.98 over the coming month.

[COLOR="green"]UK fourth quarter GDP dropped by 0.5%[/COLOR]
According to the data released today, UK economy contracted in the final quarter of 2010 by 0.5%. British GDP fell for the first time in 5 quarters. This happened due to the slump in the leading industries – construction and service sector. The coldest December in a century played some negative role as well.
Analysts' consensus forecast was for growth only to slow to 0.5% from 0.7% in the third quarter, though uncertainty over the impact of December's snow disruption meant the range of forecasts ranged from 0.1 to 0.6%. Daiwa economists regard such poor performance as “an absolute disaster for the economy”.
The situation in the country is difficult as UK inflation at 3.7% is almost 2 times higher than the Bank of England's target. It’s also necessary to take into account that Britain's economy got in trouble even before the government starts to cut public spending in earnest in 2011. Finance Minister George Osborne claimed that the shrinking economy was no reason to cancel public spending cut blaming solely the cold month for the bad results.
Gilt prices and short sterling futures jumped as investors dampened expectations that the Bank of England would opt for an early rise in interest rates to stem inflation. Economists at HSBC claim that they been of the opinion that the Bank of England should not raise interest rates until the first quarter of next year and the data really confirms the idea that, given the headwind the economy is facing, that this monetary stimulus is still required.

[COLOR="green"]26/01/11

RBC: comments on NZD/USD[/COLOR]

Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that although New Zealand’s dollar rose today versus the greenback, it’s stuck within its range ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement.
The specialists underline that the general opinion of the market is that the country’s central bank won’t change the key interest rate, so it’s necessary to scan the accompanying statement looking for the clues that the RBNZ wants to push back the timing of the next rate hike.
According to RBC, the market is currently trying to analyze the Obama State of the Union speech. The FOMC meeting later today will also be closely watched as its members changed due to the annual rotation and so it’ll probably take on a more hawkish approach. Support for the pair NZD/USD is found at 0.7580, while resistance lies at 0.7700.

[COLOR="green"]Schneider: pound may fall to $1.40 by the end of June[/COLOR]
Analysts at Schneider Foreign Exchange claim that the British currency may lose to the greenback as its rate depends on a very dangerous mix of the fundamentals.
The specialists expect pound to fall to $1.55 by the end of the first quarter and hit $1.40 by the end of June.
According to Schneider, the Bank of England will make a lot of efforts trying to stem the medium-term inflation pressures and support weaker-than-expected growth. Real interest rates in the UK are going to be low or even negative so there will be little yield support for sterling.
The strategists say that their forecast’s going to confirm unless British economy shows strong performance in the first quarter.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: comments on GBP/USD[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at MIG Bank claim that if British pound fails to close the week above the 1.5911/1.6030 resistance area, the downtrend from November maximum at 1.6299 will be confirmed. In such case the pair GBP/USD will start moving down to 1.5665 and 1.5345 on its way to the psychological level of 1.5000.
If sterling manages to close above 1.5911/1.6013, it will mean that 1.4230/1.6299 correction ended at 1.5345 and the bulls will drive the pair’s rate up to 1.6299 and then to 1.6878/1.7043.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: comments on USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY closed below the daily Ichimoku Cloud approaching last week’s minimum at 81.85.
The specialists underline that the momentum has become bearish and advise to look forward to more cautious moves today and during the most part of the first quarter as the greenback will be fluctuating above the record minimums.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to attempt small shorts at 82.25, adding to 82.55 and stopping above 83.00. First target 81.85 and then 81.00.


[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: GBP/USD will consolidate and decline [/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Commerzbank claim that the pair GBP/USD hit the target of its decline in the 1.5719/03 area representing 55-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement.
In their view, pound’s likely to consolidate versus the greenback. Then sterling will face resistance at 1.5850/1.5915 and 1.6090/95 and the downtrend will resume, claims the bank.
The specialists expect the British currency to fall to 1.5500 and then to the 200-day MA at 1.5447.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: comment on EUR/CHF[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Barclays Capital claim that bearish pressure on the pair EUR/CHF will remain as long as the single currency is trading below 1.2990. The specialists believe that euro is likely to weaken to 1.2775/00.

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  #113  
Old 31-01-2011, 14:25
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[COLOR="Green"]31/01/11

Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD[/COLOR]

The advance of the single currency versus the greenback from January 10 minimum at 1.2870 was limited by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from November to January at 1.3760 and the pair EUR/USD retreated to 1.3570.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect euro to lose more lowering to support in the 1.3500/1.3316 area (December maximum and 55-day MA). Then the European currency may make one more attempt to strengthen, say the specialists.
According to Commerzbank, if EUR/USD overcomes November 22 maximum at 1.3789 it will be able to climb to 1.3978/1.4000.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: yen’s temporarily not used for carry trade[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS claim that the greenback is trapped between 80 and 85 yen since late September 2010. The specialists believe that such dynamics of the pair USD/JPY may be partly explained by the current steep slope of yield curves all over the world. As a result, investors benefit from carry trades in one currency: they borrow and lend without taking any forex risk.
According to UBS, yield curves will flatten only when the Fed stops QE and investors start to consider major central bank rate hikes in second half of 2011 and in the first half of 2012. By then, traders will switch back to cross-currency carry trades borrowing in yens and buying higher yielding foreign currencies.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: comments on USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Last week the greenback made an attempt to bounce but didn’t manage to overcome the 83.20 level.
Technical analysts at MIG Bank claim that as long as the pair USD/JPY is trading below the resistance in the 83.22/68 area, the outlook will remain bearish. The specialists note that US dollar may fall to support at 81.85 and then 80.93 minimum ahead of November swing low at 80.24.
According to MIG Bank, the pair will confirm a base at 80.90 only when it gets above December maximum at 84.51. Then the pair will be able to rise to 85.94 and even 88.14/90.00.

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  #114  
Old 02-02-2011, 09:35
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[COLOR="Green"]01/02/11

Mizuho: EUR/USD consolidation will take 1-2 weeks[/COLOR]

The single currency rose from minimum versus US dollar at 1.2870 to last week’s maximum at 1.3760 representing Fibonacci 61% retracement resistance before easing down. The pair EUR/USD is currently trading in the 1.3740 zone.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that last week euro formed a “doji” candle on the weekly chart that may mean the consolidation below the recent maximums during the next 1-2 weeks.
The specialists also claim that the European currency managed to hold above the key support of the Ichimoku Cloud top at 1.3500. In their view, if EUR/USD continues on the same lines it will be able to break higher will occur sooner.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: euro will fall versus the greenback[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at BNP Paribas SA expect the European currency to decline versus the greenback as it loses support from the factors that were driving it up during the recent weeks: the expectations of the ECB rate hike and the permanent solution of the debt crisis are weakening. As a result, investors will turn pessimistic and the demand for euro’s going to diminish. So, underlines BNP Paribas, upside potential for the pair EUR/USD seems to be limited.
In addition, the analysts say that the EU leaders’ meeting scheduled on February 4 will disappoint the markets as the agreement probably won’t live up the expectations and take longer than estimated.
According to the bank’s forecast, in 3 months euro will fall by more than 7% to $1.27 before slumping to $1.20 later this year.
The single currency has managed to add more than 2% versus the greenback in 2011 after losing 6.5% the previous year.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: Japan will keep buying EFSF bonds[/COLOR]
According to the estimates of Barclays Capital, the single currency accounts for 21%-24% of Japan’s official currency reserves. As a result, the analysts conclude that the Asian country’s monetary authorities may continue buying EFSF debt at the rate seen in last week's first EFSF bond issue. Japanese government bought more than 20% of euro zone’s debt without significant changes in the currency composition of its reserves.
Continued purchases may ease the pressure on the holders of European debt and help to stabilize euro’s rate.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: sterling will keep strengthening[/COLOR]
British pound surged yesterday trading versus the greenback rising from the day’s minimum at 1.5820 to maximum at 1.6048 and compensating all the losses it made last week.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair GBP/USD broke through the weekly "flag" formation and got today above resistance at 1.6060. In their view, sterling’s going to strengthen more.
The specialists say that all elements of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud point at the necessity to buy pounds. Investors should, however, pay attention to the strong resistance all the way up to 1.7800. The monthly close at 1.6000 has slightly increased bullish momentum.
According to the bank, resistance levels are found at 1.6080, 1.6100 and 1.6170/85. In case the British currency declines, support levels will lie at 1.6000, 1.5950 and 1.5915.

[COLOR="green"]Niesr: Bank of England will make 3 rate hikes in 2010[/COLOR]
Analysts at the British National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) expect that the Bank of England will increase interest rates 3 times this year in order to ease inflationary pressure. According to their forecast, by the end of 2011 the BoE will raise its key interest rate to 1.25% from the current 0.50% level. In October the specialists were looking forward to one rate hike to 0.75%.
In addition, the institution lifted up its 2011 inflation forecast from 2.8% to 3.8%. In December UK consumer-price growth accelerated to 3.7% on the annual basis, while the central bank’s target lies at 2%.
On the Monetary Policy Committee’s last meeting that took place on January 13 there were already 2 members calling for the rate increase: Martin Weale joined Andrew Sentence who was proposing such step since June 2010.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: European inflation’s provoked by the Fed[/COLOR]
Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada believe that quantitative easing program launched by the Federal Reserve in November may be the reason of rising inflation in Europe. The specialists note that the policy of US monetary authorities create inflationary problems in the European countries even despite the fact that American prices themselves don’t surge.
“Maybe look to the UK, where as in the US, there are no domestic cost pressures driving up inflation. Maybe look to the European Union. Maybe look to commodities, which are adding to pressures in many countries, but not in the US”, Bloomberg cites the economists’ view.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD[/COLOR]
The European currency rose yesterday from support at 1.3570 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from November to January) getting back to the 1.3760 area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the same move).
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that above 1.3759 the pair EUR/USD will be poised higher to 1.3789 (maximum of the end of November) and 1.3978/1.4000 (78.6% retracement and psychological resistance).
According to the bank, as long as the single currency’s trading above 1.3571 the short term outlook will remain bullish. Otherwise, euro will drop to 1.3500/1.3318 (December maximum and 55-day MA).

[COLOR="green"]Aussie rose after the RBA statement
[/COLOR]
Australian dollar rose today above the parity with the greenback after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%. Analysts at Nomura claimed that the RBA was cautiously hawkish removing the markets’ concerns about the possible reduction of the rate, so there was no chance for bears.
According to the country’s central bank, global economy looks strong and there are signs of rising private investment in the nation amid higher commodity prices. In addition, the RBA expects wages to keep increasing this year, while inflation is projected to stay at the target range of 2-3%.
Demand for the Aussie surged as the state of New South Wales sold A$1.55 billion ($1.55 billion) of bonds.
The pair AUD/USD is currently trading in the 1.0065 area up from the day’s minimum at 0.9963. Nomura strategists say that Aussie may head up towards $1.0330 as growth in Asia and the US stimulates demand for commodities.
Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland suppose that the RBA is not in any immediate hurry to change rates in either direction, so Australian currency is going to struggle to climb higher.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: comments on USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Analysts at MIG Bank note that the pair USD/JPY broke through support at 81.85 and renewed one-month minimum at 81.47. The specialists claim that as long as the greenback’s trading below resistance at 83.22 it risks falling to the last reaction minimum at 80.93 and then to the 15-year minimum at 80.24 hit in November.

[COLOR="green"]MIG Bank: comments on GBP/USD[/COLOR]
Analysts at MIG Bank note that British pound jumped today from the minimum at 1.5820 getting above 1.6100.
The specialists claim that sterling’s decline from November’s high at 1.6299 to December’s minimum at 1.5345 is now regarded as correction of the advance from May’s minimum at 1.4230 to November’s maximum at 1.6299. In their view, the pair GBP/USD may ease to 1.5751/1.5900 before rising to 1.6299 on its way to 1.6878/1.7043.
If pound falls below support in the 1.5749/1.5900 area, bears will regain control of the market. In such case the British currency will risk falling to the swing minimum at 1.5345 and below this level to psychological mark of 1.5000.

[COLOR="green"]EUR/USD renewed 2-month maximum [/COLOR]
The European currency rose to the 2-month maximum versus US dollar on the expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve due to the increasing inflation pressures in the euro zone.
According to the data released yesterday, the region’s inflation gained 2.4% from the level of the previous year, the fastest pace since October 2008.
Currency strategists at Danske note that the pressure on the ECB has strengthened ahead of its Thursday meeting. The specialists remind that the ECB has hiked rates when inflation was previously at this level, so it's possible they could do it again.
Analysts at Nomura International say that the situation may change if the US data this week is stronger than expected. In such case US yields will head higher providing support for the greenback.

[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets [/COLOR]

Last edited by FBSanalytics; 02-02-2011 at 09:40.
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  #115  
Old 02-02-2011, 16:25
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[COLOR="Green"]02/02/11

RBS: Aussie’s advance stalled[/COLOR]

Australian dollar broke through the range between 0.9870 and 1.0076 in which it was trapped versus the greenback since the beginning of the year. Aussie was helped by the revival of the global risk appetite and encouraging Asia PMI data.
However, analysts at RBS claim that the pair AUD/USD won’t be able to climb much further. The specialists expect Australian currency to struggle above 1.0000 as there are some signs of rebound in the major economies while Australia's yield advantage has diminished somewhat. In addition, as Australian inflation remains subdued enough and January flooding created uncertainty at the domestic market, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t hurry to raise interest rates.
The bank underlines that although it sees factors that’ll prevent Aussie from gaining, its rate won’t reverse. Immediate support for AUD/USD is found at 1.0000.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro will consolidate in the $1.34/38 area[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that momentum for the pair EUR/USD will become bullish but this won’t happen before the beginning of March. Such forecast is based on the fact that euro has formed a strong "spike low" on the monthly candle chart climbing from the 1.2870 zone.
The specialists expect the single currency to consolidate in February between 1.3400 and 1.3800 and finally to try riding to 1.4200.
According to Mizuho, resistance levels are found at 1.3760/1.3786, 1.3900 and 1.4100, while support lies at 1.3570, 1.3500 and 1.3300.


[COLOR="green"]Westpac: sell yen versus the greenback[/COLOR]
Analysts at Westpac Global Markets expect that Japanese yen that has so far significantly appreciated versus the greenback will lose its strength. The specialists name several reasons for such forecast.
Firstly, Japanese economic recovery was worse than in other countries. More financial products are available to Japanese households via the internet and the country’s investors increase demand for higher-yielding foreign assets and go to offshore markets. In such environment yen’s poised to decline, says Westpac.
Secondly, global financial markets appear to be less stressed and the markets’ risk sentiment improves reducing the volume of yen purchases as the safe haven.
As a result, Westpac strategists believe that there are enough reasons to sell Japanese currency.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair USD/CHF broke down through the 0.9404 level representing 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rate’s advance from December to January. US dollar is holding above the key support level at 0.9309 trading versus Swiss franc.
The specialists say that this level looks rather exposed and that below it the greenback will fall to 0.9120.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD may rise to 1.3978/1.4000[/COLOR]
The single currency kept advancing from 1.2875. The pair EUR/USD got above November maximum at 1.3786 and closed yesterday near 3-month maximum.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that euro’s moving up towards 1.3978/1.4000 – 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and psychological resistance. At these levels, according to the specialists, the pair is likely to fall.
The bank says that the bullish pressure will ease only below 1.3580 and the EUR/USD go down to December maximum at1.3500 and then to support at the 55-day MA in the 1.3329 area.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: comments on USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY is falling down to the lower edge of its triangle consolidation. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have just crossed forming the “dead cross” and all elements of the daily Ichimoku chart are now pointing at the short positions.
The specialists expect the greenback to test the 2010 multi-year minimum at 80.21. In their view, it’s necessary to sell US currency on any bounce to 81.80 stopping above 82.35 and looking forward to decline to 81.35 and then to 80.55.

[COLOR="green"]Japanese individual investors are selling yen
[/COLOR]
According to the data from Tokyo Financial Exchange’s margin-trading market, yesterday Japanese individual investors sold the record amount of yen versus the greenback. On February 1 there were 280,858 net long positions for the pair USD/JPY – the most since July 2006.
Analysts at Gaitame.com Research Institute say that individual investors usually trade against the market trend buying on dips and selling on rallies. So, if dollar strengthens versus yen those who bought dollars now will get rid of American currency.
Yesterday the pair USD/JPY hit January 3 minimum at 81.31. Strategists at Rabobank International note that Japanese yen a bit weakened today as investors’ risk appetite improved.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: pound will rise to $1.7100 by the middle of 2011[/COLOR]
British currency advanced from 1.5820 at the end of January setting an interim minimum between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the decline from November to January and got above 1.62 versus the greenback.
Technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank forecast that the pair GBP/USD will rise to 1.7100 by the middle of 2011.
The specialists note that as sterling broke above the recent “flag” formation, the bullish pressure has increased. It’s also important that pound managed to close the week above the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud for 3 times in a row.
The bank reminds that although the outlook for pound seem to be quite encouraging investors have to remember about the series of important long term resistance levels all the way up to 1.7100.
According to Mizuho, resistance levels are situated at 1.6300, 1.6460 and 1.6665, while support levels are found at 1.5820, 1.5750 and 1.5555.

[COLOR="green"]Canadian dollar will remain strong in the long term[/COLOR]
Analysts at Toronto-Dominion Bank note that as long as the pace of Asian economic growth remains as high as it’s now commodity prices will tend to grow pushing up the rate of Canadian dollar. In their view, Canada’s companies have to get used to the national currency trading at parity with US dollar and increase respectively their competitiveness.
The specialists note that loonie has traded above parity with the greenback every day since the beginning of 2011 – that’s the longest such period since December 2007. Important to note that in September 2007 the pair USD/CAD hit the parity level for the first time in 3 decades after gaining 60% during 5 years on rising commodity prices. Canada is the world’s biggest producer of potash, the third largest of natural gas and sixth biggest of oil.
In 2010 loonie added 5.5% after climbing by 16% in 2009 after fromC$1.2188 at the end of 2008. Strong loonie affect exports that accounted for about 32% of GBP in 2009. Canada’s current-account deficit extended to a record C$17.5 billion ($17.5 billion) in the third quarter of 2010.
The Bank of Canada Carney keeps the benchmark rate at 1% since lifting it up for the third meeting in a row in September. On January 18 Canadian central bank said that increases would be “carefully” considered. Higher rates, however, may encourage investors’ demand for the national currency.

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  #116  
Old 04-02-2011, 08:27
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Default 03/02/11

[COLOR="green"]03/02/11

Westpac: Aussie may decline[/COLOR]

According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, the cyclone season will extend through to the middle of April. The agency forecasts that there may be 22 cyclones this season versus an average of 12. The cyclone called Yasi, the strongest one reaching Australia since 1918, follow-up cyclones and rains affect the country's trade position and thus the national currency.
As a result, analysts at Westpac regard Aussie’s advance made during the past week as unsustainable. In their view, Australia’s currency may reverse and retreat down in the near term. The specialists say it’s necessary to sell the pair AUD/USD.
Aussie was today helped by better-than-expected Australian December trade surplus (1.98B versus 1.63B expected) and rising risk appetite. Never the less, Australian dollar will likely lose its momentum as uncertainty over US payrolls data due later in the day limits the pair’s advance.

[COLOR="green"]New Zealand’s economic recovery’s unstable[/COLOR]
New Zealand’s dollar hit today one-week minimum versus Japanese yen and eased against the greenback on the discouraging labor market data: New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose from 6.4% in the third quarter to 6.8% in the final 3 months of 2010, while the economists were looking forward only to 6.5%.
Kiwi weakened also as reports of violence at anti-government protests in Egypt diminished demand for higher-yielding assets. In addition, Finance Minister Bill English said that government’s steps to shrink a fiscal deficit should reduce the need for monetary tightening by the central bank and ease pressure on nation’s currency.
Currency strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia note that the country’s economic recovery seems to be rather unstable. The specialists expect that New Zealand’s currency will find itself under pressure, though the pair NZD/USD will likely manage to hold above 0.7700.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/CHF may fall to 1.1400[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the single currency reached the levels higher than expected trading versus Swiss franc advancing from the 1.2400 zone at the end of December. As a result, the specialists believe that the pair EUR/CHF will fall down to 1.2000 and 1.1400.
According to Mizuho, all elements of weekly Ichimoku Cloud keeps pointing at selling as it was during whole last year. The strategists say their forecast should be revised only if euro closes the week above 1.3200.
The bank says that support levels are found at 1.2765, 1.2580 and 1.2500, while resistance levels are situated at 1.3000, 1.3068 and 1.3160.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD[/COLOR]
British pound advanced from Monday’s minimum versus the greenback at 1.5820 and tested the levels above the 2009-2011 downtrend at 1.6190 attempting to break higher.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that if sterling fails to overcome decisively the mentioned resistance line, its upside moves will be limited.
If the pair GBP/USD succeeds, it will advance facing resistance at 2010 maximum of 1.6300, double Fibonacci retracement at 1.6425 and the 2001-2007 downtrend at 1.6475. According to Commerzbank, resistance seems to be strong and pound may reverse down in the 1.65 region.

[COLOR="green"]Reuters poll: euro will drop to $1.3000 in a year[/COLOR]
According to the poll conducted by Reuters among 60 banks and currency analysts, the current advance of the single currency versus the greenback might be reaching its highest levels.
The interviewed specialists expect that the pair EUR/USD will be declining during the coming year aiming at the 1.3000 area.
The median forecast of respondents is that by the end of February euro will drop to 1.3500. In 3 months EUR/USD will fall to 1.3300 and in 6 months – hit 1.3100.

[COLOR="green"]Today ECB rates will stay unchanged [/COLOR]
It’s been 3 weeks since the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet claimed on January 13 that the central bank will do everything needed to keep inflation under control.
In January the region’s inflation rate reached the highest level in more than 2 years at 2.4% while the import-price inflation pace rose to 29-year maximum. Political turmoil in Egypt drives up oil prices while German workers demand wage increases.
Economists at Nomura International note that the ECB has to be extremely careful in the current situation trying to fine-tune the market’s expectations. There’s the risk that Trichet’s counter inflation comments convince investors the ECB will raise borrowing costs before Europe overcomes its debt crisis.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast that the euro area’s central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at 1%. In their view, the ECB will lift up rates in the fourth quarter, ahead of the Fed that may hike in the first quarter of 2012. The last time the ECB increased interest rates was in July 2008.
ECB rate decision will be announced today at 1:45 p.m.

[COLOR="green"]Nouriel Roubini: G20 doesn’t do any good[/COLOR]
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University famous for predicting 2008 global crisis, criticized G20 countries claiming that they don’t make enough common efforts to solve the problems of trade imbalances, capital flows, water resources, immigration and climate change. The economists even referred to the leading countries as “G Zero”.
According to Roubini, the leading countries of the world made no agreement on any significant point. The threat of protectionism remains in place as the US and China struggle to adjust their economies, while other emerging markets have accused the US of launching a “currency war” to benefit from depreciating the greenback.
In 2010 G20 summit that took place in South Korea was rather successful: the countries agreed on bank capital requirements and discussed actively the issue of global imbalances. However, the evidence shows that much of the inspiring decisions at the G20 2009 Pittsburgh meeting failed to turn into concrete actions.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: comments on EUR/JPY[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Barclays Capital note that there’s a strong resistance for the pair EUR/JPY in the 113.00 area. In their view, tomorrow this zone will likely act as a stumbling block for the single currency.
There are chances of course that euro will be able to rise to 114.00 trading versus Japanese yen, but generally the outlook is bearish and the rate will more likely drop to the 108.25/00 area.
According to Barclays, all moves of the rate between 105.00 and 115.00 seem to be nothing more than fluctuations within an 8-month range, so more distinct trend will appear only after EUR/JPY breaks through either side of this region.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: Comments on AUD/USD[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that the outlook for the pair AUD/USD is bullish as it trades above formed in the middle of January spike highs in the 1.0079 area.
Among the positive factors for the Australian dollar there are steadily rising momentum, support from the 100-day MA and daily Ichimoku Cloud support at 0.9880.
However, it’s necessary to remember that if Aussie drops below 1.0079, it will be poised for a decline to the 1.0020/0.9850 zone.

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  #117  
Old 08-02-2011, 08:55
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[COLOR="Green"]07/02/11

US trade balance deficit may have widened in December[/COLOR]

According to the median forecast of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, US trade deficit may have increased from the $38.3 billion in November to $40.2 billion in December for the first time in four months. The data will be published by the Commerce Department on February 11.
Specialists at Wells Fargo Securities believe that shortfall widened due to the growth if the imported oil prices. The price of imported petroleum climbed 3.9% December from November’s level and 14% from the previous year, claims the Labor Department.
Moreover, imports may have been boosted by the need to rebuild the inventories of consumer goods at the end of the year after American consumers spent at a faster clip in the fourth quarter. The analysts note that export growth remains very strong as most trading partners are experiencing solid rates of growth. For example, Caterpillar, the world’s largest producer of construction equipment, expects its sales to climb from $42.6 billion in 2010 to $50 billion in 2011.


[COLOR="green"]UBS cut US unemployment forecast[/COLOR]
According to the surprising data published on Friday, US unemployment fell in January to minimum since April 2009 at 9%.
Analysts at UBS reduced their forecast for US unemployment by the end of the year from 9% to 8.8%. In addition, the bank said that American first quarter GDP forecast may be revised upwards from 4.2%.
The specialists note that the greenback will turn from the safe heaven to the growth currency. UBS expects the pair EUR/USD to trade at $1.30 in a month and at $1.25 in 3-month time.

[COLOR="green"]EU February 4 summit results[/COLOR]
On the EU summit that took place in Brussels on February 4, European leaders set the deadline for the ultimate agreement on the package of measures counter the debt crisis on March 25. The measures may include stiffer sanctions against budget deficits higher than 3% of GDP, lower interest rates on loans and entitle the EFSF to buy debt directly from member states.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed that there was “broad consensus” on reaching an accord to boost competitiveness, including debt-limitation rules. According to Merkel, 2010 was a year of trials for euro, but Germany and France “are firmly committed that 2011 will be the year of new confidence” for the single currency.
Analysts at Commerzbank, however, claim that these things are costly for German taxpayers and highly unpopular. Such approach will only be politically feasible when everyone sees this is the only way out. European crisis will continue and this will limit the European Central Bank’s room for maneuver, believes the bank.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: weekly outlook for EUR/USD[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that last week the pair EUR/USD formed second in a row weekly “shooting star” figure above the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. According to the specialists, this underlines euro’s struggle to overcome the 1.3800 zone.
However, Mizuho strategists draw investors’ attention to the fact that the single currency hasn’t given up too much, so consolidation of the pair EUR/USD this week may be more cautious as the market’s trying to get used to these higher levels.
The bank advises to open small longs at 1.3600 stopping below 1.3540 and looking forward to euro’s advance to 1.3800/1.3860.

[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: forex trade recommendations for this week[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Danske Bank advise investors to avoid risk this week and buy save heaven currencies such as Swiss franc, Japanese yen and US dollar. The specialists recommend selling Swedish krona, British pound and Australian dollar.
According to Danske, franc and yen have strong upward potential. Switzerland’s currency looks especially undervalued. Swedish krona is confronted by the interest rate dynamics, while pound is under pressure due to the technical factors. As for Aussie, it’s necessary to be short at the currency as last week its rate surged.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: weekly forecast for USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY is still trading within the “triangle” pattern.
The specialists underline that last week the greenback formed small “hammer” on the weekly candle chart against the bottom edge of the “triangle”. As a result, it’s possible to assume that this week the rate will hold above these levels.
Mizuho strategists advise to watch the weekly MA to see whether they manage to cap prices and send them lower later this month. In their view, it’s necessary to open small short positions at 82.25 stopping above 82.55 and looking for US currency’s decline to 81.85 and possibly to 81.35.

[COLOR="green"]Rabobank: Bank of England won’t raise rates until December[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Rabobank believe that British currency will be supported versus the greenback until Bank of England’s MPC meeting that’s scheduled on Thursday as at the January meeting 2 MPC members voted for a rate hike from the current 0.50% level.
After the meeting, however, the pair GBP/USD will likely weaken as the market’s expectations about the rate increase seem to be exaggerated.
Higher food and energy prices on consumer disposable income lead to the weak consumer confidence and retail sales which will further be impacted by the VAT hike. As the demand is expected to stay low, Rabobank analysts say that British central bank won’t lift up interest rates at least until December.


[COLOR="green"]ING: euro will climb to $1.40-$1.45 in 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at ING Commercial Banking claim that as the US demand and global activity are rebounding, commodity prices will find themselves under bullish pressure. In general, the greenback’s expected to continue slightly weakening as long as the Federal Reserve is keeping the interest rates at the record minimum and the US yield curve is steep. The specialists believe that the situation will stay unchanged for the major part of 2011. US yield curve won’t flatten downwards until the end of this year or the beginning of 2012.
According to ING, the European currency may start to catch up with some of the other currencies that are currently trading at the multi-decade maximums versus US dollar such as Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.
ING forecasts that the pair EUR/USD will climb this year to $1.40-$1.45.

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  #118  
Old 09-02-2011, 09:14
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[COLOR="Green"]08/02/11

Barclays Bank: USD/JPY becomes less sensitive to US yields[/COLOR]

Currency strategists at Barclays Bank claim that the pair USD/JPY has become less dependable on higher US Treasury yields and may become more so ahead. The reason for such fact is that higher yields are driven mainly by the concerns over Washington's fiscal health, so we’re speaking about kind of US fiscal risk premium that’s ruining the correlation between higher US yields and USD/JPY advance.
The specialists believe that as the President Obama announced in December an extension of the tax cuts, by the end of the year US fiscal problems will get more serious and the fiscal risk-premium won’t disappear anytime soon.
In addition, the bank underlines since the beginning of 2011 there were strong portfolio flows into Japan: foreign investors have been active buyers of Japanese money market instruments. This trend also looks likely to continue with deflation persisting in Japan despite inflation in most other countries of the world.

[COLOR="green"]Yves Mersch: on euro zone’s inflation[/COLOR]
The ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch claimed that the euro zone’s central bank will increase interest rates if inflation’s surge isn’t temporary and causes second-round effects. Mersch underlines that inflation pressures are provoked by rising energy and commodity prices and, in other words, are external. The economist mentioned political tensions in Egypt that are stoking oil prices.
In his view, if inflation rate returns below 2% limit by the end of the year, there’s no danger. Otherwise, if across the second-round effects there’s the risk that this increase will find the permanent basis, European monetary authorities will have to conduct a rigorous intervention.
Annual inflation rate rose to more than 2-year maximum at 2.4%. Last week the EBC left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% for the 22nd month in a row, noting although that inflation may stay above 2% for longer than expected. The European Central Bank will release new forecasts at next meeting in March.
According to Mersch, the central bank is able to lift borrowing costs without quitting its crisis measures such as providing banks with unlimited liquidity against eligible collateral and buying government bonds.

[COLOR="green"]Ernst & Young: week pound doesn’t help British exports[/COLOR]
As the austerity measures affect the UK economic growth, exports is regarded by the country’s officials as the main driver of the recovery.
Economists at Ernst & Young LLP’s Item Club believe that Britain can’t rely on weaker pound to boost exports. In their view, the country has to invest more and increase competitiveness to gain more market share in emerging economies, such as Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Taking into account severe debt crisis in the euro area – Britain’s biggest export market and the fact that emerging markets have been leading the world out of the recent recession, the country has to reorient.
According to the research group, the value of British goods and services sold overseas was losing 1.8% during the period since 2007 to 2010 despite sterling’s almost 22% decline versus a trade-weighted basket of currencies.

[COLOR="green"]George Soros: euro zone and Britain’s prospects[/COLOR]
Billionaire investor George Soros claimed in Davos that while the euro could "potentially fall apart" he was convinced that this would not happen.
Soros believes that nowadays there is the 2-speed recovery in Europe – countries with surplus are moving forwards, while the ones with deficit struggle under the burden of high debts. Euro was changing its current form with the permanent European Financial Stability Fund providing support. However, the economists warned that instead of bringing economic convergence, the euro "effectively created divergence".
As for Britain’s prospects, Soros warns that UK government's austerity policy could push the country back into recession. The biggest threat to the UK economy, in his view, had been a deflationary trap, where rising debt and falling prices reinforce each other in a hugely damaging spiral.

[COLOR="green"]Reuters: recommendations for EUR/USD[/COLOR]
Reuters FX analysts say that euro’s rally since the beginning of January is certainly losing its pace. Confusing US labor market data triggered euro’s sell off on Friday.
The specialists advise to sell euro on any rallies at 1.3685 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall, rate’s maximum after Friday’s Payrolls data release) and 1.3727 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
The first support lies between 1.3480 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move up from 1.2860 to 1.3861) and 1.3510 (December maximum). All recent maximums and minimums are clustered in the 1.3455 zone. Below this level euro may fall significantly lower.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: watch EUR/USD closing level[/COLOR]
The European currency hit yesterday 1.3505 versus the greenback and then returned today to the levels above 1.3600 during the Asian trade.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that yesterday the pair EUR/USD formed “hammer” candle on the daily chart. As a result, euro may drop to the interim minimum in the 1.3500 area. The specialists say it’s necessary to watch if the single currency manages to close the day above of the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and preferably above the 9-day MA.
According to Mizuho, resistance levels are found at 1.3685, 1.3700 and 1.3760, while support lies at 1.3573, 1.3543 and 1.3508.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: comments on EUR/CHF[/COLOR]
The European currency is stuck in range between resistance at 1.3070 and 55-day MA support at 1.2849 trading versus Swiss franc.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that although this support level was holding so far, the pair EUR/CHF is very likely to weaken lowering to the minimums of January 18 and September at 1.2765 and 1.2775. Downside risks will ease only if euro overcomes the 1.3070 level. In such case the single currency will get chance to rise to 200-day MA at 1.3353.
The specialists advise to buy EUR/CHF on dips to 1.2850 and 1.2775 stopping at 1.2765. It will be necessary to take profit between 1.3030 and 1.3070 but reinstate longs on a break above the latter.

[COLOR="green"]JPMorgan: pressure on USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Analysts at JPMorgan note that the pair USD/JPY will remain under pressure as small and middle-sized Japanese importers keep trying to protect themselves from the rate movements.
According to the bank, these importers have to buy USD/JPY at much higher levels of around 95.00-100.00. JPM also thinks half of these importers are over-hedged so they will need to sell their excess of US dollars. All in all, this points to the fact that there are fewer buyers of USD/JPY while the number of sellers has increased. It should be another reason, among others, why the greenback finds itself under pressure versus Japanese yen.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD [/COLOR]
British currency climbed from 1.5750 at the end of January to last week’s maximum at 1.6280 failing to reach 2010 maximum at 1.6300. Then the pair GBP/USD retreated with divergence on RSI indicator. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that sterling’s trying to form the top.
Last week the short-term pressure on pound turned bearish. The specialists believe that trend reversal will be confirmed below 1.5976/80 and 20-day MA. Initial support lies at 1.6060/35.

[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets[/COLOR]
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  #119  
Old 09-02-2011, 16:29
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[COLOR="Green"]09/02/11

Commerzbank: EUR/CHF may rise to 1.3447[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency managed to overcome resistance at 1.3070 trading versus Swiss franc.
In their view, the pair EUR/USD is now likely to rise to the 200-day MA at 1.3348. Then, euro may fall to the 1.3447 level representing 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the 2007 peak.
The specialists claim that bearish pressure will be constrained by the 6-week uptrend at 1.2942.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: franc reached peak versus euro[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS say that Swiss has reached its peak versus the European currency at 1.2400 and won’t appreciate more.
As a result, this year Switzerland’s inflation won’t be stemmed by the strong national currency anymore. Moreover, rising commodity prices and a booming domestic economy will create inflationary pressure. The specialists expect 2011 inflation to be rather low – 0.9%, while in 2012 it will approach 2%.

[COLOR="green"]RBS: yen will decline versus the greenback in 2011 [/COLOR]
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland believe that after its 2010 growth Japanese yen may fall versus the greenback in 2011. Such forecast is based on the expectations that traders will once again start using yen to fund carry trades. In other words, investors will borrow in Japanese currency to invest in higher-yielding.
According to RBS, the possibility of rate hike in Japan is very low. The Bank of Japan keeps its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% since December 2008. It’s also necessary to take into account American economic rebound, claims the bank.
As a result, the specialists advise investors to bet on yen’s decline versus US, Canada’s and Singapore’s dollar.
During the past year yen added 3.2% versus 10 developed-nation currencies, while in January it lost 2%. The yield spread between 2-year US and Japanese government bond extended yesterday to the maximal level since June of 63 basis points.

[COLOR="green"]Wells Fargo: 2011 outlook[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Wells Fargo expect that this year the greenback will add 5% versus the single currency and 11% against yen.
As we get past the quantitative easing and possibly through the European debt crisis, US economy is likely to rebound and outperform the European and the Japanese ones.
In the first part of 2011 the trade’s likely to be very volatile: US QE will be potentially negative for dollar, while the European debt will put pressure on euro. Towards the end of the year clearer trend of selling EUR/USD will appear.
The pace of euro’s decline, however, slows down. The specialists expect some resolution of the euro crisis this year. As an example, the analysts cited the events of last May when the comprehensive bailout package was developed and euro manage to rise from June’s low to November’s high. However, as a lot of local woes in the euro area remain, the economists see euro losing at least 5%.
According to Wells Fargo, global currency tensions are going to stay in place this year as well. Brazil, Indonesia and other countries are trying to arrange capital controls to fight rising capital inflows. For example, 100 billion dollars came to Brazil over the last 5 months. The strategists say that the currency measures won’t be enough to curb those inflows and stem the overall uptrend of the emerging market’s currencies.

[COLOR="green"]Societe Generale: USD/CHF on the way towards January highs[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Societe Generale claim that after US dollar broke up through resistance at 0.9610 trading versus Swiss franc, it resumed the uptrend from last week’s minimum at 0.9330.
According to the specialists, resistance at 0.9690 represents the final significant obstacle for the greenback’s advance to January maximums in the 0.9785 area. Downside corrections of the pair USD/CHF will be limited by support at 0.9525.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD [/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that although the single currency recovered versus the greenback from Monday's minimum at 1.3505 rising above 1.3600, the general outlook for the pair EUR/USD remained negative.
According to the bank, euro set an interim top at 1.3860 and is poised to fall to 1.3336 on its way lower to 200-day MA 1.3095. The fact that the pair has formed the near-term top will close below the support area of 1.3570/40. At the same time, euro’s advance will be limited by the interim resistance at 1.3650/85.

[COLOR="green"]HSBC: Chinese inflation may pick up in the second half of the year[/COLOR]
Yesterday the People’s Bank of China raised the one-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.06%.
Analysts at HSBC Holdings claim that inflation is a big concern for China and that 2011 will be an inflation fighting year for the country. That may be seen as there was already a rate hike and the increase of reserve ratio this year.
HSBC notes that China is under the impact of internal and external inflationary pressure. Among the external factors there are extremely low interest rates in the US and Europe, QE and QE2, weakening dollar, rising commodity prices. As for the internal factors, in the medium term China’s going to try to reengineer its economy to the domestic consumption that means it would allow and encourage faster wages and salary increase, so eventually this will be one more driver for inflation. In addition, credit growth in China is very high – in 2009 bank loans growth exceeded the normal level in 3 times. As a result, inflation threat is severe and represents a tough task to handle.
The specialists don’t think that yuan’s appreciation is the solution for the Chinese inflationary problem although marginally it helps a bit. Since depegging its currency to dollar in July 2005 China continues to enjoy export growth. The analysts mentioned Japan the currency of which has appreciated much more but it still runs trade surplus.
In their view, the building of infrastructure in China represents more urbanization process than the asset bubble as only 40% of Chinese live in the urban area while China’s target is 70-80%. HSBC says that many people are talking about property prices bubble in China but they don’t recognize that at the domestic market few people have mortgage, while only 14-15% of the loans are mortgage-related. So even if this market collapses that won’t have such damaging consequences as US crisis that resulted in Western depression.
China is concerned about the current surge of food prices. Never the less, the country is largely self-sufficient with food of major categories. In addition, China runs a solid balance sheet that allows the government to provide various types of subsidies to fix the prices if necessary. So the risk that the food prices will run out of control isn’t that high.
HSBC expects that Chinese economy will add 9%. The economist think that with all applied policy tools the headline inflation may peak up by the end of the first half of the year. Inflation will probably be 5-6% high but the risk of the runaway inflation can’t be eliminated.

[COLOR="green"]Bill English: New Zealand may return to recession[/COLOR]
New Zealand’s dollar went down today as Finance Minister Bill English claimed that the country’s economy may have contracted in the last 3 months of 2010, entering its second recession in 2 years. In the third quarter New Zealand GDP has already lost 0.2%. Market’s concerns strengthen as, according to the data released last week, employment declined in the fourth quarter.
Economists at Rabobank say it’s a kind of tradition that New Zealand’s leaders try to make bearish comments for the national currency.
The pair NZD/USD went down from today’s maximum at 0.7755 and is currently trading at 0.7720.

[COLOR="green"]Westpac: positive outlook for Aussie
[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Westpac Banking Corp. note that bullish momentum for Aussie increased and it has potential for climbing to December maximum at $1.0256 encouraged by strong risk appetite.
Rabobank expects it to continue trading at parity with the greenback as US economy’s gradually recovering and the situation in Europe is rather calm.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect that Australian payrolls gained 17,500 in January for 11th month in a row, the longest period of jobs growth since 2007.

[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets[/COLOR]
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  #120  
Old 10-02-2011, 11:21
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UBS: franc reached peak versus euro
Currency strategists at UBS say that Swiss has reached its peak versus the European currency at 1.2400 and won’t appreciate more.
As a result, this year Switzerland’s inflation won’t be stemmed by the strong national currency anymore. Moreover, rising commodity prices and a booming domestic economy will create inflationary pressure. The specialists expect 2011 inflation to be rather low – 0.9%, while in 2012 it will approach 2%.

RBS: yen will decline versus the greenback in 2011
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland believe that after its 2010 growth Japanese yen may fall versus the greenback in 2011. Such forecast is based on the expectations that traders will once again start using yen to fund carry trades. In other words, investors will borrow in Japanese currency to invest in higher-yielding.
According to RBS, the possibility of rate hike in Japan is very low. The Bank of Japan keeps its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% since December 2008. It’s also necessary to take into account American economic rebound, claims the bank.
As a result, the specialists advise investors to bet on yen’s decline versus US, Canada’s and Singapore’s dollar.
During the past year yen added 3.2% versus 10 developed-nation currencies, while in January it lost 2%. The yield spread between 2-year US and Japanese government bond extended yesterday to the maximal level since June of 63 basis points.

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