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  #41  
Old 15-07-2010, 09:00
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Default 14/07/10

[COLOR="Green"]Royal Bank of Scotland: sell euro at $1.30[/COLOR]
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc advise investors to sell the single currency if it rises to $1.30 area.
According to the specialists, there’s important resistance around $1.3275 that already acted as a support in March and April and the breakdown of which led the pair to several year minimums. Royal Bank of Scotland claims that it’s necessary to regard euro’s rebound and stability in euro zone’s debt markets without forgetting common currency’s slump in the previous half of the year. Economic tightening will pressure the region’s economic growth.
Euro’s slightly losing to the greenback. The single currency’s trading at 1.2700. Yesterday there was a 2-month minimum at $1.2739.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: China's economic growth may slow down[/COLOR]
Analysts at BNP Paribas claim that during the next half of the year the markets will be concerned that growing inflation pace may cause “hard landing” of Chinese economy.
According to the specialists’ forecast, the world’s fastest growing economy’s growth pace will fall to 9.8% in 2010 and then to 8.4% in 2011. That will happen as inflation rate’s expected to climb to the 20-months maximum, so China’s government won’t able to conduct monetary easing. Tightening measures will affect consumers’ demand and country’s economic growth.
As a result, there will be a lot of uncertainty about the situation in China. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News believe that tomorrow data will show that Chinese second quarter GDP gained 10.5% after 11.9% increase in the first 3 months of the year.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: end of recommendation to sell pounds versus dollars[/COLOR]
Analysts at UBS AG stopped advising investors to sell pounds versus the greenback. Such decision may be explained by the growth of British currency. Sterling got above the bank’s upper limit that was established to prevent losses.
The pair GBP/USD is now trading at the level of $1.5220 and isn’t yet able to overcome key resistance at $1.5250 – 61.8% Fibo retracement of decline from November to May.

[COLOR="green"]MF Global: loonie will consolidate in narrow range[/COLOR]
Canadian dollar went down from 3-week maximum at C$1.0277 versus the greenback. Crude oil that is Canada’s biggest export lost today 0.7%.
Strategists at MF Global Holdings Ltd. believe that loonie will consolidate before Bank of Canada’s meeting on July 20 on which the country’s central bank will determine interest rates. The specialists expect that after the recent advance Canadian currency will trade in the narrow range in the short-term.
Last week’s loonie’s 2.8% growth may be explained by the speculation that higher borrowing costs weren’t fully included in the price. On June 1 the rate was raised to 0.5% and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney claimed that the future dynamics of the rate will depend on Canada’s economic growth pace.

[COLOR="green"]MF Global: dollar declines versus yen after US retail sales [/COLOR]
The greenback fell versus Japanese yen for the first time in 6 days .
According to strategists at MF Global Holdings Ltd., it happened as US retail sales contracted in June by 0.5% while the economists were looking forward to only 0.3% decline. As a result, concerns about the worsening of the country’s economic situation strengthened again.
The dollar dropped by 0.3% from 88.74 yesterday to 88.44 yen at 8:59 a.m. in New York.

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  #42  
Old 16-07-2010, 07:01
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Default 15/07/10

[COLOR="Green"]Goldman Sachs: dollar will drop versus euro by January[/COLOR]
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect the greenback to drop versus the single currency by January. It’s already the second time in two months that Goldman Sachs changes its forecast. In June the analysts announced that they projected US dollar to climb to 7-year maximum against euro.
According to the specialists, dollar will weaken as the pace of US economic growth will decline, while European macroeconomic data seems rather strong and euro zone’s political and fiscal problems are less serious than it was expected. Goldman establishes poor growth prospects for United States up to the second half of 2011.
In addition, the analysts lifted up yen prospects. Japanese currency’s likely to rise against American one to the maximal level since 1995 as the possibility that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates and that Japanese authorities would intervene at the currency market reduced.
Goldman Sachs also notes that euro may lower to 1.27 francs in 3 months as investors will increase demand for Swiss currency as for the safer one.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro's rebound will fail [/COLOR]
The single currency was trading in 1.2720 area on short coverings during the past week. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the situation is likely to change.
According to the specialists, EUR/USD has approached the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The majority of economists claim that euro’s short-covering rebound is nothing but interim and project the decline of the European currency, claims Mizuho.
The current outlook for the pair seems to be bullish. Euro turns out to be slightly overbought and the 9-day MA is successful in lifting its rate up. Mizuho analysts note that if the pair closes the week above 1.2800, there will be another round of short-covering.

[COLOR="green"]Bank of Japan kept benchmark rate at 0.1%[/COLOR]
The Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate at the current level of 0.1% claiming that low rates are making the country’s economy stronger.
Japanese monetary authorities claimed that national economy is developing according to BOJ April outlook, domestic demand’s recovering and the rebound of corporate sector extends to the households. The BOJ specialists pointed that it’s necessary to ensure markets trust Japan’s fiscal sustainability and keep watching the currency market as advance of yen and decline in stock markets may affect the economy.
According to the BOJ, the Europe’s financial market is still far from stability. The central bank hopes that stress tests of euro zone banks will help to improve the situation.
In addition, policy makers lifted up their growth forecast for the year ending March 2011 from 1.8% according to April estimate to 2.6% and reduced next year’s projection from 2% to 1.9%. Economists at HSBC Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo note that such upward revision can’t be regarded as sign of BOJ’s confidence about Japan’s economic recovery as there are too many risks from Europe and the United States.

[COLOR="green"]Macquarie Securities: 11 European banks won’t pass stress tests[/COLOR]
Analysts at Macquarie Securities expect that 11 European banks won’t pass the EU's stress tests as they need to have a higher amount of capital in case euro zone bonds will lose their value. Among such banks are all Greek banks, Bankinter, Postbank, Banco Popolare, BCP, Commerzbank and Sabadel.
These banks will firstly have some time to recapitalize themselves. If raising funds at the market isn’t successful the troubled banks will have to apply for governments’ help and then to EU support.
According to Macquarie Securities specialists, even though the number of banks that will potentially fail the tests is rather small, but there’s no doubt that this fact will affect the entire banking sector of the region.
Macquarie Securities is relatively sure in such financial institutions as BNP Paribas, UBS, SEB, DnB NOR, Nordea, and Erste Bank.

[COLOR="green"]Eisuke Sakakibara: euro will fall to 100 yen be the end of 2010[/COLOR]
Eisuke Sakakibara, the former Japan’s top currency official that was right to predict yen’s advance to 90 yen per US dollar in November 2008, expects that the single currency will decrease to 100 yen be the end of 2010. The economist claims that European Union and its euro are surviving disintegration.
European currency has already lost 15% versus Japanese yen since the beginning of this year and hit the 8-year minimum at 107.32 yen on June 29. Euro was weakening under the negative impact of euro zone’s debt crisis that made investors raise demand for yen as a safer asset.
In addition, Sakakibara shares the opinion that US economic growth will slow down.

[COLOR="green"]Spain got 3 billion euro from bond auction[/COLOR]
European currency rose versus the majority of its counterparts as Spanish bond auction turned out to be more successful than it was expected easing concerns about peripheral euro zone countries.
Spain managed to get 3 billion euro ($3.8 billion) selling 15-year bonds. The bids were 2.57 times higher than the securities offered. In the previous bond sale in April this ratio was equal to 1.79.
Strategists at Societe Generale SA in London note that the current outlook for the pair EUR/USD is characterized by the absence of negative news for euro and poor US growth prospects. The specialists claim that there will be no serious obstacles to the European bonds supply until September.

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  #43  
Old 19-07-2010, 08:06
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[COLOR="Green"]Ueda Harlow: dollar may drop to 85 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd. in Tokyo expect the greenback to fall to the 2010 minimum at 85 yen. Such forecast is based on the bearish signals from weekly and daily Ichimoku charts.
The specialists note that dollar’s short-term conversion lies below the longer-term baseline. On the weekly Ichimoku chart dollar’s conversion line is at 90.31 yen and the baseline is 90.98. On the daily chart its conversion line is at 88.09 yen, below the baseline of 89.55. In addition, American currency is found below the bottom of the Cloud. Both of these facts suggest that the greenback will decline.
According to Ueda Harlow, US dollar will firstly lower to 86.97 yen that’s the level from which the currency began its July growth. Failure there would mean that the decline will resume and that USD will drop to 85 yen. If US currency’s able to keep trading above resistance around this year’s minimum, the pair USD/JPY may form double-bottom pattern and rebound into the lower

[COLOR="green"]Faros Trading: euro and yen will rise due to China's policy[/COLOR]
Strategists at Faros Trading LLC believe that euro and yen will advance as China’s reducing the amounts of its investments in US Treasuries in favor deep European, Japanese and British bond markets that correspond to more liquid currencies.
The specialists expect the single currency to add 6% during 2 months that follow China’s June 19 decision to stop yuan’s peg to the greenback and rise to the maximum since April. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao referred today to Europe as a major market for China to place its foreign-exchange reserves.
Nowadays China has the largest foreign-exchange reserves equal to $2.45 trillion at the end of June and the biggest overseas holdings of US Treasuries. It’s necessary to mention, that the United States account for 20% of China trade, while the EU’s and Japan’s shares are respectively 20% and 16%.
As a result, Faros Trading claims that there is the need of changing the ratio of country’s reserves allocation taking into account that China is now able to conduct more flexible monetary policy after its national currency is no more fixed to US dollar.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY dynamics may be negative[/COLOR]
The pair USD/JPY is trading volatile in 87.00 area and dollar’s struggling to erase the losses it made during this week.
Technical analysts at Mizuho corporate Bank believe that if the pair gets down to test again pivotal support at 87.00 and close the week below this level, would mean very negative prospects for the greenback. According to Mizuho, USD/JPY is currently trading at rather low regression level since 1980. However, when it was at these levels last time in 1995 it was well over two standard deviations from that equivalent level.
As a result, Mizuho analysts claim that all evidence shows the necessity of short positions and that investors have to be cautious as there’s the risk of currency intervention.

[COLOR="green"]EUR/USD: new 2-month maximum at 1.2978[/COLOR]
The single currency’s reached new 2-month maximum at 1.2978 after advancing by 1.6% on Thursday. According to technical analysts, the outlook for euro improved by Thursday's close above the Ichimoku cloud at $1.2785 for the first time since December.
The market’s attention moved from euro zone’s problems to the discouraging US data released this week and concerns about the growth pace of American economy strengthened again.
European currency gained more than 8% rebounding from 4-year minimum at $1.1875 hit on June 7 helped by successful bond auctions in Greece, Portugal and Spain.
If the pair EUR/USD gets above resistance at $1.3000, it would activate resistance at $1.3125 level representing 38.2% retracement of the euro's slump from November to June.
Never the less, the analysts believe that further decline of US dollar against other major currencies may be limited. In the longer term US currency can start gaining as the demand for it as a safer asset rises. Even though the Federal Reserve may be postponing interest rates lift up for a long period of time, it’s very unlikely that the ECB will raise its key rate ahead.

[COLOR="green"]Francois Fillon: crisis was caused not by euro's weakness [/COLOR]
French Prime Minister Francois Fillon claimed today that the main factor provoking euro zone’s debt crisis that made the economists discuss the future of the currency union was the poor management of public finances, but not the fundamental weakness in the single currency system.
It was sovereign debt that resulted in the current problems, noted Fillon. According to him, fiscal situation in Europe isn’t worse than in the United States and Japan that also have high levels of deficits and debts.

[COLOR="green"]Goldman Sachs: euro will rise to $1.35 in 6 months[/COLOR]
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect the single currency to drop to $1.22 in 3 months and then advance to $1.35 in 6 months and to $1.38 in a year. The previous forecast of the specialists made in June was that euro will slump to 7-year minimum at $1.15 over 3 and 6 months.
In addition, the bank believes that European currency will strengthen to 1.30 francs in 6 months and to 1.33 francs in a year.
As for the pair USD/JPY, the greenback will break down 2010 minimum falling to 83 yen in 6 months compared with the previous estimate at 94 yen. In 3 months US dollar will trade at 85 yen and in 12 months – at 90 yen, while before it was expected to be at 92 and 98 respectively.


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  #44  
Old 20-07-2010, 07:58
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[COLOR="Green"]ANZ National Bank: Aussie under pressure[/COLOR]
Australian dollar fell to one-week minimum. It happened as the country’s Prime Minister Julia Gillard scheduled the election on August 21 that made the market believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates next month.
The minutes of July 6 meeting when the central bank called the monetary policy appropriate will be published tomorrow. On July 28 will be the release of consumer price data.
Analysts at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Auckland are sure that Australian rates won’t be lifted during the election campaign. If tomorrow minutes show that the RBA is satisfied with the interest rates level and the CPI turns out to be high, the rates will be left unchanged until August, claim the specialists. As a result, Aussie will find itself under pressure.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound will advance to 1.5525/60 versus dollar[/COLOR]
British currency broke up the upper boundary of the middle-term downtrend channel and climbed to its 3-month maximum on Thursday at 1.5470.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pair GBP/USD is moving upwards after it managed to overcome resistance at 1.5310. According to the specialists, the pair may advance to 1.5525/60 (April maximum and Fibo retracement) and 1.5580 (200-day MA) before profit-taking.
If pound declines, support will lie at 1.5245/35 there the previous resistance was found. Above these levels, the market keeps being bid.

[COLOR="green"]BIS is buying euro[/COLOR]
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) that is an international organization of central banks has started trading at forex market buying euro versus US dollars. As a result, the pair EUR/USD rebounded from the session’s minimum at 1.2872 rising above 1.2960.

[COLOR="green"]Deutsche Bank: dollar’s weakened versus euro during a month[/COLOR]
The analysts at Deutsche Bank AG see the reason of dollar’s weakening versus the single currency during the last month in the combination of negative US data and the positive European one. According to the specialists, American economic results turned out to be much below the expectations in the last several weeks.
The index provided by Citigroup Inc. shows that US economic data began deteriorating since June 10. The indicator for the United States dropped today to minus 33.5, while the euro zone’s index gaining since April 16 rose today to positive 44.3 today.

[COLOR="green"]High Frequency: euro will fall on the stress tests results[/COLOR]
Economists at High Frequency Economics expect the single currency to fall versus all of its counterparts after the results of 91 banks’ stress tests will be released this week. These tests are necessary to check if euro zone’s banks are able to survive possible losses on sovereign-bond holdings.
According to the specialists, on the one hand, if any banks don’t pass stress tests, investors’ reaction will be very strong. On the other hand, if no banks fail, the market will anyway be weak as such information won’t be regarded as credible.
High Frequency strategists project that by the end of the week there will be a sentiment of inevitable European banking system’s crisis. The same turmoil will be observed on the bond markets with safe yield curves flattening and riskier ones getting steeper.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: euro recovered from slump after Ireland’s downgrade[/COLOR]
The single currency was trading today under its 2-month maximums versus the greenback affected by Ireland’s downgrade by Moody's Investors Service and the breakdown of negotiations between Hungary and the International Monetary Fund.
Later euro managed to rebound from 1.2943 to 1.2966 area. It happened as investors are looking forward to the results bank stress tests that will be released on Friday. Strategists at BNP Paribas note euro climbed as investors closed their previous negative bets warning that this is only a temporary effect and that the common currency will remain under pressure in the medium term.
Moody's rating agency cut Ireland's sovereign bond rating from Aa1 to Aa2. In addition, as the IMF and the EU suspended on Saturday a review of Hungary's funding program, Hungary will not have access to remaining funds in a $25.1 billion loan package.
Strategists at UBS noted that the negative impact of Ireland’s rating reduction was limited as stable outlook for the country was preserved. The specialists think that euro will stay weak and the stress tests will provide the last possibility to sell EUR/USD.
If the European currency declines, the near-term support will be found around $1.2850 level representing 50% retracement of the euro's slump from maximum close to $1.3820 reached on March 17 to 4-year minimum at $1.1876 hit at the beginning of June.

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Last edited by FBSanalytics; 20-07-2010 at 08:03.
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  #45  
Old 20-07-2010, 14:55
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[COLOR="Green"]Japan wants weaker yen, while banks are bullish[/COLOR]
Although Japanese authorities want the national currency to be weak in order to stimulate exports, large banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Standard Chartered Plc and other significant speculators bet on yen’s advance against euro and dollar. In January Naoto Kan who occupied that time the post of Japan’s finance minister set the optimal yen’s level versus the greenback at mid-90s level.
Stronger yen has a very negative impact on the country’s exports that were the main driving force that helped Japanese economy out of the recession lasted from November 2007 to March of this year. Economists in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. expect that if yen keeps trading 10% above the average export hedging rate set by Japanese companies, annual corporate profits would fall by almost 5%, while real GDP will fall by 0.4 percentage point. The International Monetary Fund decreased its forecast for Japan’s 2011 economic growth on July 8 from 2% to 1.8%.
Analysts at Standard Chartered believe that yen will depreciate versus US dollar by the end of September not to 98 yen per dollar as in was thought before but only to 93.5 yen per dollar.
Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo explain that the principal reason why yen will grow is the global risk aversion and lower US yields. Traders are taking into account the euro zone’s debt crisis and the fall in Chinese demand. The specialists also changed their yen forecast upwards from 97 yen per dollar by the end of 2010 to 90 yen.
According to Dow Jones Newswires, if yen remains in 85 yen per dollar zone, The Bank of Japan may loosen monetary policy. Economists at Japan Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. note that Japanese currency may fall even below this level affected by the market’s concerns about the situation in Europe and as it’s unlikely that US interest rates will be raised.
Yen exceeded its 8-year maximum of 107.32 yen per euro on June 29 and strengthened to 86.27 yen per dollar on July 16.

[COLOR="green"]Royal Bank of Scotland: euro will stop growing[/COLOR]
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Sydney claim that the single currency is close to failure. Such assumption is made as investors’ confidence seems to be too weak.
The specialists point out that the market’s confidence depends on the European economic growth. If the growth data worsen, it will strongly affect euro rate. According to the strategists, the situation on Europe’s debt market’s unlikely to improve. Stress tests may help to lift up the confidence in the short-term, but Royal Bank of Scotland specialists ate sure that it and the European currency are close to their maximal levels.
Euro gained 0.6% rising to $1.3014 at 7:16 a.m. in London and added 1% strengthening to 113.28 yen.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro will advance at least to 1.3120/50[/COLOR]
European currency managed to climb last week to 1.3000 resistance zone. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that euro was staying under pressure during the last 2 days forming "inverse Head & Shoulders" pattern.
As a result, the specialists name the trend for the pair EUR/USD is neutral or positive. Commerzbank expects euro to advance at least to 1.3120/50.
If the common currency goes down, support will be situated at 1.2730/1.2610 levels.

[COLOR="green"]UK budget shortfall rose to GBP20.90 billion[/COLOR]
British currency dropped after UK public sector finance data turned out to be worse than expected. GBP/USD fell from session’s maximum at 1.5310 approaching 1.5200 support area.

Public sector's net debt rose to the maximal level in the last 17 years at 63.9% of GDP. Public sector's net cash requirement went up to GBP20.90 billion in June, while the analysts were looking forward to advance only to only GBP15.0 million. Public sector's net borrowing got equal to GBP14.5 billion exceeding expectations of GBP13.2 billion.

Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London claimed that in such conditions the Bank of England will have to continue its loose monetary policy. UK Treasury called for the urgent measures in order to reduce budget shortfall.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas SA: dollar will fall to 84.95 yen[/COLOR]
Analysts at BNP Paribas SA expect the greenback to drop to 8-month minimum versus Japanese yen as US returns lowered reducing foreign investors’ demand for US Treasuries.
Treasury 2-year yields were close to the record minimum. The past month’s American economic data release turned out to be very negative. According to US government’s data, in May Japan, regarded as a traditionally one of the main foreign investors in American securities, withdrew money out of the Treasury market at the fastest pace in 2 years decreasing its Treasury holdings by $8.8 billion to $786.7 billion.
The specialists predict that US dollar will depreciate to 84.95 yen getting close to the minimal level since November 2009.

[COLOR="green"]Ewald Nowotny: markets’ reaction on stress tests will be positive[/COLOR]
Ewald Nowotny, the member of ECB Governing Council, claimed today that he expects markets to react positively to stress test results that will be strict to eliminate any possible doubts. If the tests show that some banks don’t have the sufficient amount of capital, they are to get government support.
Nowotny also noted that there’s no direct connection between stress test results and option of extending ECB liquidity support. According to him, it’s reasonable to keep bond buying option in place, but not active at the moment.
In addition, the official said that he doesn’t think that there’s a risk of double dip recession in the euro zone.

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  #46  
Old 21-07-2010, 14:59
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[COLOR="Green"]RBS: Aussie will advance to 90 US cents[/COLOR]
Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc expect Aussie to advance to 2-month maximum. Such forecast is based on the yield differential between Australia and the United States that makes investors’ demand for Australian currency higher.
Australia’s economy’s growing, so the country’s central bank is likely to raise its key interest rate from the current 4.5% level. Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision about lifting up the rate will depend on the results of European bank stress tests and local inflation figures that will be released next week.
On the other hand, the growth pace of American economy may turn out to get lower making the Federal Reserve keep rates at the record low between zero and 0.25%. As a result, Australia’s yield advantage over the US may even grow.
According to RBS currency strategists, Aussie seems to be rather cheap and that risk appetite improved due to the minimal level of US rates. The specialists believe that Australian dollar will rise to 90 US cents the level reached last time on May 13.
SNB lost 4 billion Swiss francs in the first half of 2010
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is looking forward to reporting the loss of about 4 billion Swiss francs ($3.81 billion) in the first half of 2010. Such dramatic figures can be explained by the slump of the single currency caused by the Greek debt crisis that depreciated the country’s international reserves.
Switzerland’s central bank increased its foreign currency investments by 132 billion francs in first half of the year. The SNB had to sell national currency to hold its growth versus euro, reduce deflation risks and protect Swiss exports. The majority of the funds were placed in euro-denominated assets. As the franc strengthened by 8.6% versus the common European currency, the SNB may have survived exchange-rate losses of over 14 billion francs.
The ultimate data will be released by the SNB on August 13.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD may fall 1.2785/55[/COLOR]
The single currency wasn’t able to overcome 1.3000 level and started European trade today at 1.2900 area. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair’s decline in the near term has become more likely underlining that euro’s struggle lasts already 4 days.
According to the specialists, EUR/USD may fall to 1.2785/55 or 1.2590. If European currency manages to rise, the pair may strengthen at least to 1.3120/50 as the rate formed inverse head and shoulders pattern.

[COLOR="green"]Merrill Lynch: dollar may drop below 85 yen[/COLOR]
The analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that the greenback may drop below 85 yen falling to the 14-year minimum if the Federal Reserve loosens its monetary policy while the Bank of Japan doesn’t.
According to the specialists, easing in US will lead to the decline in American yields and make investors selling dollars versus Japanese yen. Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi claimed today that the Bank of Japan won’t take policy action based on the yen’s rate.
Today Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will give his semiannual report on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee today and will testify at the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow.
The spread between yields on US 10-year Treasuries and similar Japanese bonds decreased on July 6 to the minimal level since May 2009 at 180 basis points. The spread was equal to 186 basis points today.

[COLOR="green"]The release of BoE minutes[/COLOR]
Sterling gained versus the greenback and the single currency after the release of Bank of England meeting minutes, according to which UK policy makers decided to leave the rate at the record minimum of 0.5%. In addition, Britain’s central bank decided to maintain their debt-buying program at 200 billion pounds ($306 billion).
The members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-1 with Andrew Sentence proposing again to raise the rate by 25 basis points and 8-0 to continue quantity easing.
British policy makers think CPI likely to be higher through rest of 2010 than forecast in May inflation report, while GDP growth prospects in the medium term got worse.
Currency strategists at Commerzbank AG claim that they are still optimistic on the pound as, according to them, UK the economy is much more flexible than the euro zone’s one.

[COLOR="green"]Lloyds: euro will fall to $1.2750[/COLOR]
Analysts at Lloyds Banking Group Plc expect the single currency to fall ahead the release of European bank stress test results scheduled on Friday. According the specialists, the pair EUR/USD will be pulled back to $1.2750 area.
Euro has broken Asian session’s consolidation range going down below 1.2875 support to session’s minimum at 1.2845.

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  #47  
Old 22-07-2010, 05:03
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Hey there,

Great updates. I am always looking for such information. Thanks for sharing. I have seen that the market sentiments were hit hard today as Fed Chairman Bernanke said that economic outlook remains unusually uncertain . DOW reversed earlier gain and dived sharply to as low as 10065.5 before closing at 10120.53, dow -1.07%. Crude oil also reversed after hitting an intraday high of 78.57 and is back trading below 77.

Looking for more updates...
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  #48  
Old 23-07-2010, 12:16
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[COLOR="Green"]Saxo bank: daily currency forecast[/COLOR]
EUR/USD: the single currency may go up back to 1.30, so it’s recommended to buy euro from 1.2810 to 1.2850.
USD/JPY: the greenback’s likely to rebound to 87.45, so it’s advised to buy dollars from 86.25 to 85.50/60.
EUR/JPY: the single currency may rise to 113.20, so it’s recommended to buy euro from 110.90 to 111.40.
GBP/USD: British currency can break up through 1.5300 level advancing to 1.5350, so it’s necessary to buy pounds from 1.5210 to 1.5250.
AUD/USD: the specialists advise to buy Aussie from 0.8820 to 0.8860 expecting that Australian currency will extend to 0.90.
USD/CAD: the greenback will face resistance at 1.0420 and fall again to 1.0350. It’s necessary to stop above 1.0470.

[COLOR="green"]Tokai Tokyo Securities: EUR/JPY will fall below 107.32[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co. claim that the European currency may fall to 8-year minimum versus Japanese yen as EUR/JPY chart formed triple top.
Euro began advancing versus its Japanese counterpart 3 times since June. Each growth attempt of the single currency found maximum between 133 yen and 114 yen. As a result, the specialists note that euro is trading in a gradual downtrend and may drop extending its 16% decline against yen since the beginning of 2010.
According to Tokai Tokyo Securities, the common currency’s likely to go down under this year’s minimum at 107.32 yen hit on June 29. It will happen, if euro shows a clear breakdown below the baseline of Ichimoku chart in 110.37 yen area. The last time the pair got below this level was in November 2001.

[COLOR="green"]FX360: loonie may fall to 83.54 yen[/COLOR]
Specialists at FX360, online currency research firm, advise investors to be ready to sell Canadian dollar versus Japanese yen during the next few days.
The analysts cite “bearish Gartley” pattern that will be formed in the chart if loonie advances to the sell point at 85.34 yen. According to FX360, Canada’s currency will depreciate to 83.54 yen. It’s necessary to stop at 86.52 yen level that lies just above the double-top pattern made of July 12 and July 14 maximums.
Currency strategists underline that the trade will remain valid until the pair CAD/JPY stays above 82.29 yen per loonie.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY may decline[/COLOR]
The greenback rose from yesterday’s minimum at 86.35 and consolidated in 87.00 area during the Asian trade. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the pair USD/JPY is still under bearish pressure which may strengthen if dollar closed the below 87.25.
The specialists note that the pair’s consolidation took place below the first Fibonacci resistance and the 9-day MA. It’s possible that dollar will survive today another decline.
According to Mizuho, if the greenback falls down, support levels are found at 86.73, 86.34/86.27 and 86.00. If the pair goes up, resistance levels will lie at 87.23, 87.45/87.58 and 87.75.

[COLOR="green"]Goldman Sachs: investors expect 10 banks to fail stress tasts[/COLOR]
Goldman Sachs performed a survey by among 376 respondents such as hedge funds and long-only investors about the results of European banks’ stress tests that are going to be released later today. It turned out that the respondents expect that 10 out of the 91 banks being examined will fail.
The average forecast of surveyed investors is that Europe’s banks will need additional capital of 37.6 billion euro ($48.4 billion). Spanish, German and Greek banks are thought to require the biggest amount of capital from the public and private sectors.
The majority of interviewed is sure that the amount of capital raised will be enough for normal capitalization of the banks, while the rest claim that capital deficit will remain.
BNP Paribas: dollar forecast’s reduced
Analysts at BNP Paribas SA decreased their forecast for the greenback versus the single currency from their previous estimate of dollar moving to the parity with euro. Now, according to the bank, by March 31, 2011 dollar will advance to $1.12 per euro. The specialists explained the change in their predictions saying that the Federal Reserve’s likely to diminish interest rates and European bank stress tests results may be encouraging.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas raised the projection of future euro value from $1.16[/COLOR] to $1.20 in the third quarter and from $1.08 to $1.15 by the end of 2010.
The specialists note the weaker prospects of US economic growth and underline the poor condition of the housing market as housing starts fell in June to the minimal level since October and consumer confidence slumped in July. As a result, the specialists wait for the easing of Fed’s monetary policy.
BNP Paribas think that stress tests will be successful as European authorities will use their results in the best possible way in order to restore investors’ confidence.

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  #49  
Old 27-07-2010, 11:39
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[COLOR="Green"]Nomura: USD/JPY forecast’s reduced[/COLOR]

Analysts at Nomura Securities Co. reduced their forecast for the pair USD/JPY. The specialists explain the change in their future estimate of the greenback’s rate by the declining pace of US economic growth and the speculation that the Fed won’t hike its benchmark interest rate until the first half of 2011.

According to Nomura, by the third quarter dollar will trade not at 95 yen as they predicted before but at 90 yen. The estimate of the greenback’s value by the end of the year was decreased from 97 to 87.5 yen. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2011 remained at the same level of 90 yen.

[COLOR="Green"]IMF: yuan’s considerably undervalued[/COLOR]

According to two unnamed officials, the International Monetary Fund regards Chinese currency as considerably undervalued. The IMF is determined to make the country appreciate yuan that has gained 0.7% since its peg to the greenback was ended on June 19. United States, Germany, France and Britain share the opinion of the organization.

Meanwhile, Chinese monetary authorities have made several statements on this point. Hu Xiaolian, a respected deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, explained in her third speech on Monday why more flexible yuan that’s against the interest of the country’s exporters is important for China citing the necessity of easing inflationary pressure and making the monetary policy more effective.

The full IMF analysis will be to be released in September if China doesn’t revoke its permission for that.

[COLOR="Green"]Mizuho: short squeeze’s possible[/COLOR]

The single currency was able to become stronger than in the first half of the year. Euro managed to rebound from the year minimum at 1.1880 and rose to 1.3000 area. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that if the pair EUR/USD overcomes resistance at 1.3030, there will be another short-covering squeeze.

According to the specialists, European currency is supported and pushed upwards by the 9-day MA. The pair is likely to go up to 1.3020 and 1.3100/25. As a result, Mizuho advises to try longs at 1.3005, adding to 1.2900 and stopping well below 1.2800.

[COLOR="Green"]Euro’s trading near 2-month maximums at $1.30[/COLOR]

The single currency was trading at $1.30 during the last several hours. However, investors don’t rush to take too large positions on euro waiting for more details about how euro zone debt crisis affected Deutsche Bank.

Even though Deutsche claimed that the second quarter profits are in line with the market’s expectations, the bank didn’t reveal the information about the debt crisis’s impact according to the stress test result.

Some traders note that if Deutsche Bank unveils the data and the news won’t be somehow menacing, that will help to raise confidence in the European banking system and finally and promote buying of the common currency. In this case, the target of euro’s rebound will be at last week’s maximum at $1.3029 and then at $1.3125 level representing 38.2% Fibo retracement of decline from November to June.

Despite the negative opinions about European banks stress tests, German interest rates are growing, euro’s advancing that leads to the short-covering on the single currency, claims Citibank.
[COLOR="Green"]
AUD/JPY may advance
[/COLOR]

Aussie seems to be stable trading at $0.9020 after gaining 0.9% during Monday’s trade. Yesterday Australian currency was helped by the risk appetite revival after the release of European banks stress tests.

Chart analysis shows that Australia’s dollar is very likely to advance versus Japanese yen. On the daily Ichimoku chart AUD/JPY Tenkan-sen rose above Kijun-sen that’s regarded as the bullish signal.

The top of the Ichimoku Cloud lies at 80 yen level. If the pair gets above this point, it will climb much further.

[COLOR="Green"]SNB and BIS are selling euro[/COLOR]

According to the market rumors, the Swiss national Bank and the Bank for International Settlements set offers at 1.3020/25. In addition, China’s selling euro at 1.3010/15. The pair EUR/USD is now trading in 1.3002 area. Before there was the information that Saian sovereign fund was buying the single currency versus the greenback during the Asian trade.

*Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an intergovernmental organization of central banks which “fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks”.

[COLOR="Green"]Danske Bank: sell yen versus euro[/COLOR]

Japanese yen fell almost to 7-week minimum against euro. It happened due to the improved investors’ sentiment about US economic recovery that raised the demand for riskier assets.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect that tomorrow data will show that American orders for durable goods went up by 1% in June after losing revised 0.6% in May. Specialists at GfK AG believe that German consumer confidence is likely to increase in August as economic growth gained pace.

Analysts at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen recommend selling Japanese currency as it’s not likely to strengthen much. Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey released July 1 showed that Japan’s large manufacturers project that yen will trade at 90.16 versus the greenback in the six months to March 2011.

Strategists at Mizuho Corporate Bank noted that euro was also helped by last week's European banks stress tests results that didn't bring any big negative surprises. The Dow Jones Industrial Average compensated this year’s decline and extended by 1% yesterday.
[COLOR="DarkGreen"]
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  #50  
Old 28-07-2010, 12:14
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[COLOR="Green"]JPMorgan Chase: pound will rise versus dollar[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. stopped being bearish on British currency as the pound managed to overcome April’s maximum at $1.5526.
According to the specialists, sterling may decrease in the short term to support at $1.5385, but the general outlook is regarded as positive and cable may rise to $1.5750 and $1.5865.
Bloomberg reports that pound got above its 200-day for the first time since January 28.
The pair GBP/USD is currently trading above $1.56.

[COLOR="green"]Commonwealth Bank of Australia: AUD/USD may fall to 88.50[/COLOR]
Australian currency survived the biggest decline in more than a week after the pace of consumer prices growth turned out to be lower than it was expected making the August hike of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rates less likely.
The country’s CPI added in the second quarter only 0.6%, while in the first one it increased by 0.9%. The analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News were looking forward to 1% increase.
Currency strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney believe that Australia’s central bank won’t have incentives to raise its key rate next week, but point out that this may happen later this year. According to the specialists, it’s possible that Aussie is moving to 88.50 US in the short term.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro may rise to 1.3120/50[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency keeps trading in 1.3000 area for the second day in a row. Euro consolidated after strengthening last week from its minimum at 1.2730.
The specialists set the temporary target of the pair EUR/USD at 1.3120/50 area representing the move upwards from the “head and shoulders” figure’s neckline and 38.2% retracement of this year’s decline. According to the bank, these levels will be able to hold the initial test and cause some profit taking.
If the pair declines, support levels will be found at 1.2880, 1.2733 and 1.2508.

[COLOR="green"]USD/CHF: comments[/COLOR]
The greenback reached yesterday 2-week maximum at 1.0640 trading versus Swiss franc. Today it was slightly losing its advance during the Asian trade and got below 1.0600 at the beginning of the European session.
If the pair USD/CHF manages to overcome resistance at 1.0675, it will become clear that downtrend from June 1 maximum at 1.1730 already ended at 1.0394. It’s still possible that US dollar will advance later today to test this resistance. Otherwise, there’s a risk that the pair will drop to 1.0300.
The pair USD/CHF is currently trading at 1.0610/15 zone.

[COLOR="green"]CMC Markets: euro and pound can benefit from US consumer confidence decline[/COLOR]
Analysts at CMC Markets believe that the decline of US consumer confidence may be encouraging for European and British currencies due to the yield differential.
Conference Board’s sentiment index went down to 5-month minimum at 50.4 beating the analysts’ expectations.
According to CMC Markets specialists, the fact that US bond yields reached maximum at 3.05 and then began declining while UK and German yields are rising is positive for non-dollar foreign exchange and means the reduction of demand for American currency.
BOJ: yen’s appreciation is risky
Hidetoshi Kamezaki, the member of Bank of Japan board, underlined that the country’s central bank regards yen’s appreciation as risky and will take active measures to fight deflation. The aim, according to Kamezaki, is to return to a sustainable growth path and price stability.
The official noted that stronger yen could affect exports in the short term and have a negative impact on business investment and consumer spending. There are some risks to the pace of Japan’s economic rebound.
Analysts at BNP Paribas in Tokyo believe that sharp advance of Japanese currency may stimulate monetary easing policy even in the conditions of the country’s economic recovery. The specialists note that in case of abrupt yen’s climbing, Japan’s monetary authorities to take into account the possibility of providing “longer-term liquidity”.
During the past 3 months yen added 6.9% versus the greenback and 8.3% versus the single currency as investors increased their demand for it as for a refuge currency.

[COLOR="green"]Niesr: UK economy's 2nd quarter bounce is temporary[/COLOR]
Economists at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) claim that the highest in 4 years growth pace of British economy in the second quarter is nothing but temporary phenomenon. Consequently, the institution believes that the Bank of England shouldn’t increase its interest rates.
In the second 3 months of 2010 UK economy gained 1.1%. As a result, it difficult for the country’s monetary authorities to make out if it’s more necessary to fight inflation by lifting up the benchmark interest rate or to stimulate the economy suffering from huge, but vital budget reduction.
Niesr specialists don’t expect that in the next few months Britain’s central bank will follow the proposition of its official Andrew Sentance to raise the rates. The Bank of England will look forward to the third quarter GDP figures to make the further judgment.
According to Niesr forecast, UK economy will add 0.1% in the third and 0.3% in the fourth quarter. The projection for 2011 was reduced from the previous estimate of 2% to 1.7%.

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  #51  
Old 29-07-2010, 12:35
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[COLOR="Green"]Saxo bank: daily currency forecast [/COLOR]
EUR/USD: resistance level will be found at 1.3050. The analysts advise to sell the single currency up to 1.2950 stopping above 1.3075.
USD/JPY: the near-term support will lie at 87.0, but the pair will manage to recover only to 87.55/65 area. As a result, it’s necessary to sell dollars up to these levels, stopping above 87.85.
EUR/JPY: the pair may lower to 112.65, so it’s recommended to sell European currency up to 113.75, stopping above 114.45.
GBP/USD: British currency can face resistance at 1.5650 in the near-term and return down to 1.5480. It’s necessary to stop above 1.5695.
AUD/USD: the pair can drop to 0.8870, so it’s advised to sell Australian currency up to 0.8970/80, stopping above 0.9020.
USD/CAD: the pair’s expected to consolidate between 1.03 and 1.04.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: buy pound at 136.27 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. believe that sterling will strengthen to 140-142 yen after it managed to hold above the support level.
On July 27 British currency overcame resistance at 135.64 yen formed by a trend line connecting the maximums of June 3, July 14 and July 26 and broke out of its recent consolidation range. Pound was also able to stay above support at 131.30 yen level representing 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its decline from the April 26 maximum to the May 20 minimum.
Citigroup strategists advise investors to buy pound at 136.27 yen and set automatic instruction to sell the currency if it gets down below 134.30 yen.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro will rise to 1.3050 before short squeeze[/COLOR]
European currency keeps trading at its 2-month maximum in the psychological 1.3000 area during the third day in a row. Technical analysts at Mizuho expect euro to go up versus the greenback pushed by its 9-day MA.
According to the specialists, euro is fluctuating within a clear upside channel moving towards 1.3050 zone that may cause a short covering squeeze.
If the pair EUR/USD continues advancing, resistance levels will be found at 1.3029, 1.3046/1.3055 and 1.3100. If the European currency declines, support levels will be at 1.2977, 1.2952 and 1.2900.
US second quarter GDP figures will be released tomorrow
The single currency gained versus the greenback as investors worry about the decreasing pace of US economy increasing demand for euro, claim currency strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. According to them, the stress tests results that showed that only seven European banks needed to raise capital made the outlook for riskier assets more favorable.
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York note that data surprises changed the situation in favor of the euro during the recent weeks. Market’s concerns about US economy strengthened after yesterday’s report showed that American demand for durable goods fell in June by 1% compared with expected 1.1% gain.
Tomorrow US Commerce Department is going to report the second quarter GDP figures. The economists expect that the data will be negative. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that American growth slowed from 2.7% in the first 3 months of the year to 2.5%.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays: dollar may rise versus euro[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Plc expect that the greenback to rise versus European currency this month. Such forecast is based on the assumption that US economic recovery will gain its pace.
According to the specialists, euro’s uptrend isn’t likely to continue and American economic data will improve. If the market’s concerns about the growth of world’s economy reappear, there will be safe-haven flows back into the United States leading to the dollar’s advance.
US dollar is likely to show its first month decline since November 2009 as it dropped by 6.4% against euro this month.

[COLOR="green"]Standard Bank: USD/CHF will fall, AUD/NZD will rise[/COLOR]
Strategists at Standard Bank Plc recommend investors selling the greenback versus Swiss franc.
The specialists expect that franc will strengthen to 1.0150 per US dollar. It would be necessary to stop the trade if Swiss currency falls to 1.0750.
In addition, the analysts advised to buy Aussie versus New Zealand’s dollar at 1.24 looking forward to its advance to 1.2680.

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  #52  
Old 10-08-2010, 06:55
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[COLOR="Green"]Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: the Fed’s policy will ease [/COLOR]
Specialists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd claim that the Federal Reserve’s likely to loosen its monetary policy. Such assumption’s based on the butterfly spread that’s calculated by subtracting doubled 5-year yield it from 2- and 10-year rates.
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi notes that the last time the spread got to its current negative level of 34 basis points was in December 2008 after Lehman Brothers’ collapse and, earlier, in 2001 after the Internet bubble burst. Negative figure shows that there are more bets that the Fed will reduce borrowing costs or hold interest rates near zero for longer.
If the butterfly spread gets gown below the mark reached after the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP in 1998, it will come close to 1981 levels hit during postwar double-dip recession. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi analysts note that even if the United States avoids recession scenario, its economic growth will be only just above 1% that will strengthen deflation risks.
According to the strategists, the 5-year yield that reflects the potential monetary policy switches lowered that means that the possibility of further easing is already processed and priced in be the market.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: short-covering on EUR/USD is possible[/COLOR]
The single currency rose last week to 3-month maximum above 1.3300 and managed to close the week above 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that there’s a possibility of short-covering above 1.3510 level representing 50% Fibonacci retracement of decline from December to June.
According to the specialists, in the longer-term it’s necessary to remember the market’s consensus of the pair’s slump to 1.2600 in 3 months and 1.2000 in a year. Mizuho notes that euro’s a bit overbought versus the greenback.

[COLOR="green"]Goldman Sachs: Japan’s and US growth forecast reduced[/COLOR]
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reduced their estimates of US and Japanese economic growth prospects.
According to the new forecast, Japan’s economy will add 1.4% in 2011 and not 1.7% as it was expected before. As for American one, it’s thought to rise by 1.9%, while the previous prediction was equal to 2.5%.
The macroeconomic data supports such downward revision. Japan’s current-account surplus decreased for the second month in a row affected by export income’s decline. In addition, jobless rate in the country reached 7-month maximum and factory output dropped in June. Goldman specialists are also looking forward to severe consumer spending decline in the country.
The slowdown of American growth may be explained by the fact that lawmakers are against of extending several stimulus measures. The analysts suppose that the unemployment rate which was at 9.5% in July may advance to 10% the beginning 2011. As a result, claims Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve may start again conducting unconventional monetary easing.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays: dollar will gain versus yen, Aussie and kiwi[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Plc in London claim that the greenback may rise versus Japanese, Australian and New Zealand’s currencies as they believe that the Federal Reserve won’t decide to ease its monetary policy tomorrow.
According to the specialists, if the Federal Open Markets Committee leaves monetary policy unchanged, short-term yields will climb making the greenback advance as well.
The strategists recommend acting in this situation using the pair USD/JPY traditionally connected with short-term interest rates, although they are also sure that AUD/USD and NZD/USD will decline.
If it happens that the Fed announces a clear plan to help the economy dollar may drop below 85 yen and possibly beyond 84 yen.

[COLOR="green"]USD/JPY: comments[/COLOR]
The greenback fell versus Japanese currency from 88.10 at the end of July getting to the new 8-month minimum on Friday at 85.00. After that US dollar managed to find support there and rebound to 85.75 during the European trade before meeting resistance and returning to 85.55.
Technical analysts believe that the pair is still within a downtrend targeting to November 2009's minimum at 84.83.
If the pair USD/JPY goes up, resistance levels will be found at 85.70 (August 3/5 minimums), 86.20 (August 6 maximum) and 86.45 (August 5 maximum). If American currency declines, support levels will be at 85.00 (August 6 minimum), 84.80 (November 2009 minimum) and 84.32 (June 1995 minimum).


[COLOR="green"]Bank of England's forecast will be negative[/COLOR]
It’s expected that the Bank of England will be negative in its short-term outlook for the British economy. The country’s central bank is likely to forecast weak economic growth and high inflation.
Never the less, the pound may continue gaining before investors will once again become negative on sterling. If the British currency manages to overcome 1.60/1.61 levels, it will be able to rise to 1.65.
The Bank of England’s Governor Mervyn King will speak on Wednesday August 11 at 9:30 GMT.

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  #53  
Old 11-08-2010, 07:54
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[COLOR="Green"]Gaitame.com: dollar may decline to 84 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd believe that the greenback may fall to the 15-year minimum versus Japanese yen. Such forecast is based on the Bollinger bands’ analysis that shows the signals of a strong downtrend.
The specialists note that the pair USD/JPY has gone below 20-day MA or the lower Bollinger band for at least 6 times during the past month. Strategists at Gaitame.com expect that if US dollar drops below 84.50 yen level, it'll be likely to lower to 83 yen.
On August 6 American currency decreased to the lowest level since November at 85.02 yen. It didn’t hit the levels below 84 yen since 1995.

[COLOR="green"]Ueda Harlow: Aussie’s down for the second day[/COLOR]
Australian dollar was down versus its US counterpart for the second day in a row affected by strengthening concerns about the prospects of world’s economic growth.
Analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd in Tokyo note that risk aversion seems to be rather high and the market’s worrying mainly about American and Chinese economies due to the negative macroeconomic data from these countries. Annual pace of China’s exports growth declined from 34.1% in June to 22.7% in July, while in the United States consumer spending, pending home sales and factory orders turned out to be below the forecast levels in June.
Aussie weakened also as the National Australia Bank Ltd. reported that its July index of business confidence based on the survey of more than 400 companies between July 26 and July 30 became 2 times lower than it was in June.
Currency strategists note there are no expectations that the rates in Australia will be raised next month.

[COLOR="green"]Bank of Japan won’t intervene until yen USD/JPY falls to 80 yen[/COLOR]
Japanese currency appreciated slightly versus the greenback today. There was a speculation at the market that the country’s investors will repatriate home their gains that they’ll obtain after coupon payments of US Treasuries that are expected in the middle of August.
As it was predicted, Japan’s central bank didn’t change its monetary policy leaving the key interest rate at 0.1%.
According to traders, if US dollar gets down below 84.82 yen level, it will fall to the 15-year minimum against yen. In their opinion, such outcome is quite likely as there are little chances that Japanese monetary authorities will intervene at the currency market unless the pair USD/JPY depreciates to 80 yen area. Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda gave no comments on this point.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: GBP/USD may reverse downwards at 1.6000[/COLOR]
British currency strengthened versus the greenback from 1.42 zone in May to find resistance at 1.5968/6000 levels. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that in case the pair GBP/USD isn’t able to overcome 1.6000 point, it will reverse downwards.
According to the specialists, support remains in 1.5709/1.5636 region limited by October minimum and 38.2%/50% Fibonacci cluster of the 2009 growth and the slump from 2009 to 2010. Crucial support level is found lower at 1.5530 along the 200-day MA signaling that higher this level sterling’s trend in the medium-term will keep being bullish.
However, Commerzbank strategists still ask investors to pay attention to 1.6000 level as only above it pound can manage to rise to February’s maximum at 1.6072.


[COLOR="green"]Shirakawa: Bank of Japan’s concerned about yen’s growth[/COLOR]
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa claimed today that the members of Japanese central bank's board were discussing much the recent yen’s appreciation. It’s clear, noted the policymaker, that the growth of national currency is likely to worsen business sentiment.
Shirakawa underlined the necessity to study what influence makes this advance on Japan’s economy as a whole.
The fact that the Bank of Japan didn’t change today its key rate means that it keeps such option to act in case of future excessive strengthening of yen when it becomes clear that the country’s economic recovery is in danger.

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  #54  
Old 12-08-2010, 08:55
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[COLOR="Green"]Specialists comment Aussie’s decline[/COLOR]
Australia’s currency’s declining versus US dollar for the third day in a row as the economic data indicates the slowdown of the world’s economic recovery.
Strategists at MoneySquare Japan Inc. in Tokyo claim that as the uncertainty about the economic situation in China and United States is getting stronger, investors are reducing their demand for riskier and growth-sensitive assets such as Aussie.
Specialists at FXOnline Japan Co. in Tokyo note that yesterday’s announcement of the Federal Reserve that it will reinvest principal payments on its mortgage holdings into longer-maturity Treasuries didn’t manage to improve risk appetite. On the contrary, such move’s going to affect equities and lift up purchases of yen regarded as a refuge currency.
Strategists at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney expect that Australian dollar will be declining during next month. Such forecast is based on the assumption that the country’s central bank won’t raise interest rates, while there will be no double-dip recession in the US and lower performance of Chinese economy is already priced in the currency’s value.
However, it’s necessary to say that Aussie’s depreciation can’t be very significant, because additional yield on Australia’s 10-year debt in comparison with similar Treasury notes rose to the 2-year maximum, point out analysts at FX Prime Corp. in Tokyo.

[COLOR="green"]Schroder Investment Management: US may suffer from deflation[/COLOR]
Analysts at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in Japan claim that the United States already don’t seem to be the driving force of the world’s economy. Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced that the recovery of US economy will pass slower than it was expected. American yields are now in poor condition with 10-year Treasury yield at 16-month minimum.
The specialists think that during the coming 3 years the country faces the risk of deflation. Among the reasons for such outlook the economists name negative impact of the credit bubble and aging population.
Specialists at Pacific Investment Management Co. share such opinion noting that it becomes more and more likely that US will face the same situation as in Japan. Japanese economy was suffering from stagnation and decreasing prices since the middle of 1990s.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: Dollar Index will rise to 84.46[/COLOR]
The Dollar Index went down from May maximum at 88.70 to trade only slightly above 80.00 at the beginning of August. The index dropped to support at 80.17/79.92 zone.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect that US currency may strongly reverse as the previous minimums, 55- and 200-week MA and 50% Fibonacci support of the growth from 2008 to 2009 will converge in the mentioned support area and then bounce upwards.
According to Commerzbank’s forecast the greenback’s index will rebound from this week’s minimum at 80.085 and rise to the 55-day MA at 84.46 during the next several weeks.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: dollar will be under pressure[/COLOR]
Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced that the recovery of US economy will pass slower than it was expected. In addition, American central bank claimed that will reinvest principal payments on its mortgage holdings into longer-maturity Treasuries.
Strategists at UBS in Stamford note that the Fed’s statement turned out to be surprising. US monetary authorities chose not to normalize expansionary monetary policy that they launched as a measure to help the economy during financial crisis. This means that the greenback will remain under pressure. According to UBS, the greenback will fall versus growth-sensitive currencies such as Aussie and loonie on the rate differentials and greater growth prospects in favor of the latter.
Analysts at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington believe that unexpectedly positive data foreign, especially European data will reinforce the pressure on dollar. However, the economists warn that if it becomes clear that US slowdown’s extending to the whole world’s economy, investors will resume dollar purchases looking for safer assets.
Specialists at Wells Fargo in New York underline that there's a lot of nervousness around American currency. In their opinion, dollar will lose to the single currency today and during the next few days.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: “bearish engulfing” on daily USD/JPY[/COLOR]
The greenback slumped versus Japanese yen on Tuesday erasing its gains of the previous 3 days.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that small “bearish engulfing” candle formed on the daily chart means that the pair USD/JPY will attack this week pivot level at 85.00.
Never the less, the specialists advise investors to be cautious betting on dollar’s decline as general movement of the pair passes within potential “wedge” pattern, although all elements of this daily Ichimoku Cloud chart suggest a short position. It’s very important to take into account that the greenback isn’t oversold and the trend’s descending but not too strongly.

[COLOR="green"]Asian reserves grew in July [/COLOR]
Asia's foreign exchange rose to a record maximum in July. It happened as the growth pace of the region’s economy outruns the one of developed economies. As a result, the fund inflow to the Asian countries is very strong and the importance of Asian central banks is rising.
Reserves held by 11 key Asian central banks without Chinese rose by 2% from $2.803 trillion at the end of June to $2.861 trillion by late July.
China that owns the world's largest reserves reports about the reserves only at quarter ends. It ended the second quarter with $2.454 trillion in reserves.

[COLOR="green"]BoE inflation report[/COLOR]
According to the Bank of England’s report, inflation rate will exceed target level of 2% during the major part of 2011. By the end of the next year it will be pulled down to that point and will fall below it in 2012 and rest there during 2013. The members of Monetary Policy Committee noted that future inflation dynamics is still rather uncertain.
Next year GDP growth forecast was cut from the estimate made 3 months ago at 3.6% to 3%. British central bank’s governor Mervyn King underlined once more that the country’s economic recovery will be long and slow.

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  #55  
Old 13-08-2010, 07:55
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Default 12/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]Barclays: In August dollar may depreciate to 83 yen[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Bank Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. believe that the greenback may slump below 15-year minimum versus Japanese yen. Such assumption is explained by the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain bond holdings. Barclays’ specialists in Tokyo name 79.75 yen level previously reached in April 1995 as the only remaining target for the pair USD/JPY.
In August dollar may depreciate to 83 yen, expects Barclays, as Japan’s monetary authorities are unlikely to undertake direct intervention to the currency market.
As the Fed is becoming committed to quantitative easing that comprises purchases of mortgages and government securities in order to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate growth, American currency and treasury yields find themselves under serious pressure.
Strategists at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo warn that in such situation the further losses in stocks combined with investors’ risk aversion will bring the greenback to postwar minimum versus Japanese currency in about a month.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY will rise to 92 yen by the end of 2010[/COLOR]
Strategists at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co believe that by the end of 2010 the greenback may exceed 90 yen level. The specialists pointed out the example of the single currency’s summer successful rebound after sinking earlier this year.
Dollar’s 8.5% decline stimulates US exports reducing concerns about the country’s economic growth, notes Mizuho. The analysts expect that increased corporate earnings will significantly improve American economic data by the end of the year that makes US policymakers support currency’s depreciation ahead of middle-term elections.
Mizuho underlines that weaker euro was the main factor that helped euro zone’s economy during the debt crisis. German exports gained 3.8% percent in June from May. The single currency managed to recover from 4-year minimum at $1.1877 hit on June 7 to $1.3334 on August 6.
Even though it’s possible that the greenback will lower to 80 yen in the near-term, it has all chances to strengthen to 92 yen by the end of the year.
All in all, Mizuho strategists think that US economy will grow, but gradually. The new sharp rising of unemployment that capped after climbing to 10.1% in October seems now very unlikely.

[COLOR="green"]Hedge funds once again turned bearish on euro[/COLOR]
During the major part of 2010 investors were contesting in their bets on euro’s decline until they faced the necessity to limit their losses as the single currency began strengthening from the 4-year minimum at $1.1877 hit on June 7.
Euro managed to add 12% to $1.3334 on August 6 as Europe’s economic outlook has significantly improved and indebted nations such as Greece are in process of conducting austerity measures.
The fund’s sentiment about European currency became negative affected by the Federal Reserve's decision to reinvest principal payments on its mortgage holdings into longer-maturity Treasuries that according to some investors means that the demand for this securities will rise strengthening American currency. Yesterday euro’s rate survived the biggest daily loss versus the greenback since October 24, 2008. The common currency dropped from Tuesday’s $1.3184 to $1.2883.
Strategists at Knight Libertas LLC claim that they are looking forward to fundamental problems in the euro area and Xerion Fund of Perella Weinberg Partners LP specialists noted that the market had become too optimistic about European economies in comparison with the American one.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays stopped advising to buy commodity currencies[/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Plc stopped recommending investors to buy commodity currencies such as Australian and New Zealand’s dollars and Norwegian krone versus dollar, euro and yen.
According to the specialists, very uncertain external conditions represent increasing risk that the growth pace of Chinese economy will decline. China’s economic slowdown in its turn is likely to affect demand for commodities. As a result, small commodity-producing economies get in danger of slower growth and inflation.
In addition, Barclays analysts noted that the prospects of risky currencies seem to be more uncertain.

[COLOR="green"]Borrowing costs for Spain’s regions climb[/COLOR]
It may become much more difficult for Spain to fight its debt problems as borrowing costs for the country’s regions are increasing.
Spanish regional governments were borrowing at the same rates as the central one before the global credit crisis started in 2007. Catalonia’s extra yield over the Spanish one tripled this year, while Galicia has asked central government to freeze payments of its internal debt. Madrid region had to postpone a bond sale last month.
The yield on Catalan 10-year bond is equal to 5.5%, while the yield on similar Spain’s government bonds lost 79 basis points since June 16getting down to 4.09%.
Spanish regions spend twice as much as the state and employ more than half of all public workers.
Analysts at Robeco Group in Rotterdam warn that the situation with Spain’s national government debt will significantly worsen in case the country’s government has to provide financial help to the regions erasing all the efforts of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to diminish funding costs.

[COLOR="green"]BNY Mellon: euro may have capped[/COLOR]
Strategists at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London claimed that the single currency’s strengthening versus the greenback may have ended.
European currency managed to recover from 4-year minimum at $1.1877 hit on June 7 to $1.3334 on August 6. It’s quite possible that euro capped and will start a new continuous decline, claims Bank of New York Mellon.
The specialists underline that the bond yields in periphery euro zone countries are getting higher and higher and the region still faces a lot of problems.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup Global Markets: Greek recession strengthens[/COLOR]
Greek economy declined for the seventh consecutive quarter. According to the data released today by Hellenic Statistical Authority, the country’s second quarter GDP lost 1.5% from its first quarter level. On the annual basis it fell by 3.5%, while the economists were looking forward to only 3.4% decrease.
Greek unemployment rate surprisingly advanced in May from 11.9% in April to the maximal level since 2004 at 12%, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected it to be at 11.6%.
Economists at Citigroup Global Markets in London claim that the economic situation in Greece may be still worsening. The specialists’ outlook for the country’s negative. The pace of Greek economic decline may increase this year due to the austerity measures, higher inflation and rising unemployment that will affect household and business spending power.

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  #56  
Old 16-08-2010, 09:13
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Default 13/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]Goldman: double-dip recession in US is 25-30% possible[/COLOR]
Specialists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate the possibility of double-dip recession in US by 25-30% that, in their opinion, is unusually high. The analysts point out that economic data shows declining pace of American economic growth.
Such outlook is the same as the one of economists at Pacific Investment Management Co., who regard deflation and recession risk in the United States as equal to 25%.
Protection from the economy’s slowdown may be found in such spheres as housing, business spending on equipment, autos and other consumer durable goods, household savings and company hiring, claims Goldman.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasted on July 31-August 9 that American GDP will rise 2.55% during the second half of 2010, while in the previous month they named 2.8% figure.

[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: dollar will rise to $1.19 per euro[/COLOR]
Analysts at Morgan Stanley in London expect that dollar will rise to 4-year maximum at $1.19 per euro that was reached at the beginning of June. Such forecast is based on the assumption that either US economy will recover or the European one will follow its downside dynamics.
According to the specialists, negative macroeconomic data that has been recently released are already priced in dollar’s rate. In case US economic growth is below the expectation, there’s little doubt that the situation in Europe and in the world as a whole will be the same.

[COLOR="green"]BNY Mellon: SNB will resume interventions[/COLOR]
Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. believe that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will return to its policy of currency interventions. According to the specialists, Switzerland’s central bank will start selling francs in order to prevent national currency from strengthening too much as the country’s again under threat of deflation.
The strategists remind of SNB’s announcement on June 21 that the central bank won’t hesitate to make active actions if the danger of deflation comes up again. Although the situation’s now far from critical, deflation will reappear quite quickly against the general background of global uncertainly if franc begins to climb, claims BNY Mellon.
In such case Swiss central bank will have to choose either to sit on its hands doing nothing to improve the situation or return to the intervention policy even though its efficacy has been openly brought into question.

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  #57  
Old 17-08-2010, 09:17
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Default 16/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]JPMorgan: yen will rise to 79 yen per dollar this year[/COLOR]
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. expect that by the end of this year Japanese currency may advance to 79 yen per dollar. The precious forecast of the specialists was that yen will finish 2010 at 93 versus the US currency.
Next month yen’s forecast was lifted up from 90 to 80 per greenback. Yen’s anticipated value per euro was also raised from 116 99 be the end of 2010.

[COLOR="green"]Sakakibara: yen will rise to the record maximum[/COLOR]
Eisuke Sakakibara, former Japan’s top currency official, believes that Japanese currency that has already added 7.9% against the greenback may climb further to the all-time maximum versus dollar.
According to the economist, the slump of the pair USD/JPY isn’t the result of yen’s strengthening but the one of dollar’s weakness as US currency’s rate is affected by the lack of confidence in American economic growth prospects.
Japanese monetary authorities didn’t make up a strategy how to hold the climbing of the national currency. Sakakibara expects that the companies will feel the negative impact of yen’s appreciation and stock market’s decline around the end of this year. Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan’s Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will meet this week to discuss the situation.
Survey by Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. demonstrated that more than a third of Japan’s margin traders think policy makers will intervene to weaken the yen if it strengthens past the 15-year maximum.
The last time when Japan intervened to the currency market was in March 2004 when the yen was around 109 per dollar.

[COLOR="green"]Chinese second quarter GDP is higher than Japan’s one [/COLOR]
China’s economy outperformed Japanese one becoming world’s second-largest economy according to the second quarter results. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast that China will outrun the United States that occupies currently the first place in the world with annual GDP of about $14 trillion by 2027.
Japan’s nominal second quarter GDP was equal to $1.288 trillion, while China reported $1.337 trillion figure. All in all, in the first half of 2010 Japan kept its higher place.
It’s necessary to note that in 2009 China surpassed US as the biggest automobile market and Germany as the largest exporter. The nation is the world’s primary buyer of iron ore and copper and the second-biggest importer of crude oil. All of this means that China’s influence on the global economy’s surging.
Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the IMF, however, underlines that China’s property market is beginning to collapse that will hit the nation’s banking system. In addition, China’s output was also larger than Japanese in the fourth quarter of 2009, but was again lower in the first 3 months of 2010. The specialists also claim that it’s necessary to pay attention to the seasonal factor that may be different for the nations.
Economists at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. claim that taking into account the fact that Chinese growth pace in the second quarter was equal to 10.3%, while Japanese accounts for only 2%, it’s possible to make out that Japan won’t retake its position and China’s lead will be only increasing.

[COLOR="green"]Lloyds: EUR/CHF fell on the risk aversion[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at Commerzbank AG claim that the risk aversion strengthened affected by Japanese data. Japan’s economy gained 0.4% in the second quarter from the level of the previous year, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg News were looking forward to 2.3% increase. That makes investors increase demand for safer assets such as Swiss currency. As a result, the single currency dropped today versus Swiss franc.
Analysts at Credit Agricole CIB believe that it’s mainly Germany that contributes to European growth, while peripheral countries still have a lot of problems.
Specialists at Lloyds Banking Group note that yield spreads between the bonds of peripheral euro zone countries and German ones widened and the stock markets’ dynamics is negative.
The single currency lost more than 650 pips since reaching 2-month maximum at 1.3925 last August 10. It went down below 1.3300 to new 6-week minimum at 1.3269. Support levels for EUR/CHF are found at 1.3254 and 1.3210. Resistance levels are found at 1.3375 and 1.3452/7.

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  #58  
Old 18-08-2010, 15:24
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Default 18/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]Barclays: pound won't be able to hold gains[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Barclays Plc believe that any advance of the British currency made this week may be erased.
According to the specialists, bearish weekly engulfing candle would mean that the pair GBP/USD won’t be able to hold any growth. The strategists believe that pound may rise this week to $1.6010 and then reverse. As a result, the bank recommends investors to sell sterling when it approaches $1.5825.
Last week British currency lost 2.2% after reaching the maximum since February. GBP/USD is currently trading in 1.5525 area.

[COLOR="green"]Loonie strengthens on purchase offer for Potash Corp. [/COLOR]
Canadian currency advanced versus all of its major competitors helped by the world’s stock markets’ growth and $39 billion purchase offer from BHP Billiton Ltd. to Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc, claims Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital.
The specialists note that Canada’s Potash, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, rejected takeover proposal from Australian BHP Billiton as too low and, consequently, provoked speculation about a higher bid.
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. note that successful price given for Potash will increase investors’ demand for loonie. In their view, such offer for Canadian company means that the country’s resource sector remains attractive for investors even in the current conditions when the market sentiment seems to be pessimistic. Strategists at Royal Bank of Canada underline that loonie has become nowadays a powerful petro-currency.
The pair USD/CAD dropped from yesterday’s maximum at 1.0437 and is trading currently in 1.0320 area.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: Canada’s CPI will be above forecast[/COLOR]
Strategists at Royal Bank of Canada believe that the release of Canada’s CPI scheduled on Friday, August 20, will be important for USD/CAD future dynamics.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that in July Canada’s annual inflation rate gained pace. According to them, the country’s CPI added 1.9% from the previous year, while the increase in June was equal only to 1%.
RBC specialists believe that it’s very likely that the reported figure will turn out to be above the market’s expectations.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound may fall to 1.5201 versus dollar[/COLOR]
British currency lost 200 pips falling from 1.5700 yesterday session’s minimum at 1.5500 today. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that GBP/USD broke down through the uptrend channel support line at 1.5610 and test support area at 1.5526/02.
The specialists believe that if sterling gets below 1.5502 (200-day MA), it will survive further decline to 1.5304/1.5274 area (38.2%/50% Fibonacci cluster) and then to 1.5201 (55-day MA).

If pound manages to rebound, resistance levels will be found at 1.5709 and between 1.5750 and 1.5820 (August 5 minimum). According to Commerzbank, the outlook remains bearish while the pair’s trading below 1.60 level.

[COLOR="green"]Yen’s up on demand from Japan[/COLOR]
Japanese currency was up today stimulated by demand for yen provided by Japan’s investors and exporters.
Specialists at Shinkin Asset Management note that the pair USD/JPY keeps trading within downtrend. The specialists claim that there’s speculation at the market that there are a lot of dollar offers above 86.50 yen level that makes the players think that it’s useless to chase the greenback above 86.00 yen.
Moreover, there was information received from Japanese bank’s manager that the country’s exporters were placing dollar offers from around 86.50 yen to 89.00 yen, while their previous selling levels were found at 90 yen area.
According to Tokyo Financial Exchange data, Japanese margin traders' net long positions in USD/JPY were still high on Tuesday at 146,095 contracts and about $1.46 billion in value, although below maximum at 182,966 contracts reached on August 6. Such margin traders who bet on American currency will benefit when it climbs. Such trade will limit the currency’s growth. In case the greenback plummets, Japanese retail margin traders will have to reduce long dollar positions strengthening dollar’s decline.
The market keeps being concerned about the possible intervention of the Bank of Japan. As the speculation of some steps of the central bank to prevent the national currency from appreciation may help dollar to recover versus yen in the near-term, US currency will drop to 83 yen if there will be no measures taken.

[COLOR="green"]The release of BoE MPC meeting minutes[/COLOR]
The minutes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting released today showed that the MPC members voted again 8-1 with Andrew Sentence who keeps proposing to increase the key interest rate by 0.25%.
Among the arguments for easing there were the credit conditions in the country, weak demand and austerity measures aimed to cut the budget. The main reasons for lifting up the rates included the fact that economy’s getting better as surveys indicate the strength of manufacturing in the third quarter and risk of CPI growth marked by surging cost of agricultural commodities.

[COLOR="green"]Westpac: Aussie declined versus yen[/COLOR]
Australia's currency lost to the majority of its main competitors as the number of skilled vacancies in August decreased by 0.3% in August from July and the pace of wage growth went down in the second quarter. As a result, investors became surer that the country’s central bank will leave the key interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.
Strategists Commonwealth Bank of Australia note that Aussie depreciated versus yen affected by the speculation that Japanese monetary authorities won’t intervene to the currency market in order to prevent the national currency from excessive strengthening. Specialists at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney advise investors to sell Australian dollar against yen as there’s a lot of uncertainty at the market and investors will prefer Japanese currency.
AUD/JPY dropped from yesterday’s maximum at 77.68 to current levels in 76.90 area.

[COLOR="green"]China doubled KTB holdings[/COLOR]
China increased South Korean bond holdings (KTB) more than twice during the first half of this year to 3.99 trillion won ($3.4 billion). China’s holdings of Treasuries decreased, consequently, by 6% and became equal to $843.7 billion.
The specialists from Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics note that the global financial crisis and European debt crisis reduced the significance of both the dollar and euro, while role of some emerging-market currencies rose. As a result, economists believe that it’s reasonable for China to allocate some reserves to financial assets in major Asian economies.
China’s monetary authorities chose KTB due to their attractiveness and high liquidity and in order to differentiate foreign exchange reserves.
Specialists at Societe Generale SA in Tokio claim that China may buy about 4 trillion won of KTB by the end of 2010. Such move’s likely to create strong demand-supply imbalance in the Korean debt securities making the yields slump.

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  #59  
Old 23-08-2010, 09:18
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Default 20/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]GBP/JPY may fall to 4-week minimum[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. claim that British currency may fall to the 4-week minimum versus Japanese yen. Such forecast is based on the fact that pound was trading below its 60-day MA during the last four days.
The specialists note that sterling’s under pressure. According to them, if British pound goes down below the bottom of Bollinger band, the pace of its decline may rise and the target level for GBP/JPY will be at 130.85 set on July 22.
The 20-day moving average was found at 135.17, while the lower Bollinger band occupied 132.14 level.

[COLOR="green"]BofT Mitsubishi UFJ advises to sell EUR/CHF
[/COLOR]
Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. note recommend investors selling euro versus Swiss franc regarded as a refuge currency expecting that the latter will depreciate to 1.2000. It’ll be necessary to stop the trade if the pair EUR/CHF gets above 1.3800 level.
According to the specialists, euro’s dead-cat bounce is ending and the single currency’s likely to survive another round of losses as euro area’s economic prospects are still weak. Swiss franc added 7.4% versus European currency since the beginning of the summer.
In addition, the bank underlines that Swiss monetary authorities won’t resume their actions to hold franc from excessive appreciation any time soon. As for the greenback and yen that are safe-haven currencies as well, they became less attractive to investors because it’s expected that US and Japanese governments will use additional monetary measures in order to help economic growth.

[COLOR="green"]Bank of Japan is estimating the impact of yen’s appreciation [/COLOR]
The Bank of Japan in process of estimating the effect of the yen’s appreciation to a 15-year maximum greenback on Japanese economy. As a result, it’s possible to conclude that it won’t loosen monetary policy in the near term.
It may be possible that Japan’s central bank is looking forward to revised GDP figure that will be released on September 10. The next BOJ meeting is scheduled for September 6-7.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda claimed today that his ministry is communicating with other G7 nations on currencies amid concern the strong yen will cause further the country's slowing economy. Noda also repeated that he’s attentively watching the dynamics of currency markets. He will meet with Prime Minister Naoto Kan next week to discuss economic and currency issues.
According to economists at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, the BOJ emergency meeting may be held if yen becomes too volatile or rises above 80. Japanese currency hit the maximal level of 84.73 yen per US dollar on August 11. Yields on 10-year bond didn’t show weekly advance since July 9.

[COLOR="green"]EUR/USD slumped to 1.2700[/COLOR]
The single currency’s plummeting after having failed at the former uptrend support line from June minimums at 1.2830. The pair EUR/USD is currently trading only slightly above 1.2700.
The target of euro’s decline may be situated at 1.2475. Support levels are found at 1.2650 (intra-day level) and 1.2520 (July 13 minimum). If the single currency manages to recover, resistance levels will be at 1.2815/35 (session maximum/intra-day resistance), 1.2900 (August 19 maximum) and 1.2925/35 (August 12/18 maximums).

[COLOR="green"]USD/JPY consolidated between 85.20 and 85.50[/COLOR]
The greenback went down from yesterday’s maximum at 85.90 to the weekly minimum at 84.90. The pair USD/JPY found support there and recovered consolidating during today’s Asian and European trade between 85.20 and 85.50.
Technical analysts at ACM - Advanced Currency Markets note that dollar’s advance will be limited by 86.50 and 86.89 in case the Bank of Japan won’t perform to the market. Even the single currency manages to overcome these levels, USD/JPY won’t rise above 86.89 (2 August maximum) and 87.67-88.10 (50-day MA, psychological barrier and 28 July maximum).
If US dollar climbs, resistance levels will be at 85.55/65 (session’s maximum/intra-day resistance), 85.95 (August 19 maximum) and 86.40 (August 13 maximum). If the pair declines, support levels will be at 85.10/20 (August 17/18 minimums).

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  #60  
Old 24-08-2010, 08:46
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Default 23/08/10 & 24/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]Aussi falls on nation’s federal election results[/COLOR]
The Australian dollar fell against all 16 major counterparts as the nation’s federal election on August 21 failed to deliver a majority government for the first time in 70 years.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said that the aussi is going to stay heavy, markets don’t like uncertainty and it’s also going to add to the negative sentiment on the global outlook which will probably see Aussie struggle anyway.
If the pair will close below 88.50, the next support must be at 87.70, analytics claim.
AUD/USD is now trading at 0.8955. The currency has declined 1.5% in August as opinion polls forecasted a big chance of a minority government.
Australian bond futures fell, with the 10-year contract for September delivery at 95.075 on the Sydney Futures Exchange from 95.095 on Aug. 20. The implied yield on the futures rose two basis points to 4.925 percent.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets Ltd. in Sydney said that Australia’s dollar “will bear the brunt of the uncertainty”.
China’s demand for coal and iron ore with investments in Australia’s mining industry help to decline unemployment rate in Australia to 5.3%. By the reason of recover in employment RBA move up the benchmark rate 6 times between October 2009 and May 2010 to 4.5% like no one in a Group of 20 member.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: next support to EUR/USD at 1.2523/1.2490[/COLOR]
Euro downside recovery from August high at 1.3335 expanded lower. EUR/USD found support at 1.2667 – 55-day moving average.
Commerzbank analysts claim that if the pair smashes below the 55-day MA near 1.2667, next support will be the 1.2523/1.2490 area — mix of the mid-July low, 1.25 level and the June maximum at 1.2490.
In case of bullish movement, resistance will be at 1.2802 and 1.2923 — June-to-August uptrend line boarder and last Wednesday 1.2923 high.
But below here we will remain short-term bearish said in Commerzbank.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: Sell euro against Swiss franc[/COLOR]
Analysts at UBS AG advise traders to sell the euro against the Swiss franc when EUR rises because economic “conditions remain bearish”.

EUR/CHF resistance lies at 1.3320, key support level at 1.3074 — the record low it reached on July 1.
The euro has fallen 11% against the franc this year.
Analysts claim that with daily and intraday momentum studies pointing down, 1.3074 is now key support. If cleared it would expose the psychological 1.3000 threshold.
The franc was little changed at 1.3160 per euro.
Swiss National Bank President told Tages-Anzeiger on Aug. 21 the threat of inflation reduces the likelihood it will intervene to weaken the currency.


[COLOR="green"]24/08/10
Forecast Pte: AUD/USD targets 5-week low[/COLOR]

Technical analyst at Forecast Pte said the AUD/USD may drop to 5-week low if the pair closes today below strong support at 88.76.
Analyst claim that Aussie is in a “down move” and could fall past 88.76 cents — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the AUD/USD rally from a July 1 low to an Aug. 6 high.
Besides that, daily technical indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence, or MACD, indicate the potential downtrend for the Aussie versus the greenback.
Technical analyst said that the Aussie needs to breach the level of 88.76 cents. For this week, it’ll consolidate and then continue lower to as weak as 86.34 cents, the July 19 low.
Now, Australia’s dollar traded at 88.97 U.S. cents from 89.13 cents in New York yesterday, when it touched 88.33 cents — the lowest level since July 22.
MACD was at 0.0017 today, compared with 0.0051 for the signal line. The drop of the MACD below the signal line suggests the Aussie will weaken.
The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average, or EMA, from the 12-day EMA. A 9-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: GBP/CAD may fall[/COLOR]
Royal Bank of Canada said cable may fall against loony if it trip below C$1.6241.
The British pound found resistance at C$1.6328 and C$1.6377. The sell signal for sterling was derive from a trend reversal when the pound fell below C$1.6328.
It may be a short-term selling for a test of initial support at 1.6241. If the GBP/CAD drops below this level, the pair will find support near 1.6179/1.6151.
From the beginning of this year, the British pound has fallen 4.2% against the Canadian currency.
Now it traded at C$1.6290.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: GBP/USD below 200-day MA[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank said the cable fall on Asian session to 1.5400 low, breaking below the 200-day MA at 1.5469, although superficial rebounds are not ruled out.
We cannot see pound rebounds until it trades below the 200-day MA. Only we can notice a near term tepid rebounds, said at Commerzbank.
In case of downside movement, while GBP/USD trades below strong 1.5636 — past week maximum — and 1.5714 — October low — resistance, a decline towards the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.5322 and 55-day MA at 1.5289 remains in the pipeline.

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  #61  
Old 27-08-2010, 11:22
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Default 25/08/10 & 26/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]Russia, BIS, Asian sovereign sell euro (25.08.10)[/COLOR]
EUR/USD presently trades at 1.2690. Russia has apparently joined in the selling. Stops just above the 1.2720/30 sell orders. Reports BIS and a large Asian sovereign have both been selling into the EUR/USD rally. So the pair back at 1.2700 from session high at 1.2725.
Moreover, Russia said to be buying cable in recent trade. Now the GBP/USD at 1.5430. Sell orders seen clustered up at 1.5480/00, stops probably not far north of there.

[COLOR="green"]UBS AG: risk-averse investors are buying the franc (25.08.10)[/COLOR]
The Swiss national currency increase to a new record against the united European currency after Ireland’s credit rating was cut to AA- by Standard & Poor’s. Investors seek the Swiss currency as a haven.
The Swiss franc advanced 0.4% against the euro to 1.2987 — the highest level since the single currency was introduced in 1999, and now it trades at 1.3030.
Since the beginning of 2010, the Swiss franc has appreciated more than 13% versus euro.
“Risk-averse investors are buying the franc as we have a mix of negative news,” said currency analyst at UBS AG. “Ireland has been downgraded, yesterday’s data from the U.S. were disappointing. In addition, stock markets are easing.”
Ireland’s credit rating was cut one step by Standard & Poor’s yesterday to AA-, the lowest since 1995, on concern the rising cost of supporting the country’s struggling banks will swell the budget deficit. In the U.S., sales of existing houses plunged by a record 27 percent in July, yesterday’s data show.
The franc has been pushed higher after Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand said that the bank’s ability to counter currency gains are “limited.” The central bank in June stopped purchases of foreign currencies after quadrupling holdings over the previous 15 months to bolster exports and fight deflation.

[COLOR="green"]Stiglitz: European Economy at Risk of Double-Dip Recession (25.08.10)[/COLOR]
Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize-winning economist, think the European economy is at risk of falling into a recession as governments cut spending to reduce their budget deficits.
“Cutting back willy-nilly on high-return investments just to make the picture of the deficit look better is really foolish,” said Stiglitz.
Euro-area governments stepped up efforts to cut their deficits to below the European Union limit of 3% of gross domestic product after the Greek crisis earlier this year eroded investor confidence in the 16-member currency union. While the economy expanded at the fastest pace in 4 years in the II quarter, the recovery is showing signs of weakening.
“Because so many in Europe are focusing on the 3% artificial number, which has no reality and is just looking at one side of a balance sheet, Europe is at risk of going into a double-dip,” Stiglitz said.
Growth in Europe’s services and manufacturing industries slowed more than economists forecast in August and German investor confidence slumped to the lowest in 16 months. Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday that “risks to economic growth are clearly to the downside” in the euro-region economy.
The average budget deficit in the euro area will probably widen to 6.6% of GDP this year from 6.3% in 2009, the European Commission forecast in May. The Greek government aims to pare its shortfall, the region’s second largest, from 13.6% of GDP last year to 8.1% this year and to within the EU limit in 2014, it has said. The country has cut wages and pensions and increased taxes to stave off a default.
At 14.3% of GDP, Ireland had the highest deficit in the euro region last year. The shortfall will narrow to 11.7 percent this year, excluding the cost of bank bailouts, the commission forecast.
“Obviously, Ireland by itself is too small to determine what happens to Europe as a whole,” Stiglitz said. “But if Germany, the U.K. and other major countries follow this excessive austerity approach, Ireland will suffer.”
Stiglitz said that with companies still cutting jobs, he doesn’t expect economic growth to strengthen anytime soon.
“The problem is that we aren’t getting out of this current crisis very quickly,” he said. “What we’re doing is setting ourselves for a longer-term Japanese-style malaise of weak growth for an extended period of time. It’s very disturbing that people are talking about a new normal” with unemployment as high as 10 percent “which would be devastating.”

[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley ended a bet against the euro (25.08.10)[/COLOR]
Morgan Stanley ended a bet against the euro as U.S. economic weakness may “take a while” to influence Europe while the Federal Reserve moves closer to easing policy further.
“While we have been very vocal in recent weeks calling for dollar strength against the euro, the risk-reward has deteriorated and the risks of further easing measures by the Federal Reserve on September 21 are perhaps building,” analysts wrote today. “While it is likely that European data will eventually slow if the current bout of weakness in U.S. data continues, it might take a while to feed through.”
The short euro-dollar bet had a 20% weighting in the strategy team’s portfolio of trade recommendations and was ended with a profit of 326 basis points, or 3.26% points, the analysts wrote.

[COLOR="green"]Roubini: U.S. economy increase will be “well below” 1% in the III quarter (26.08.10)[/COLOR]
Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis, supposed U.S. economy increase will be “well below” 1% in the III quarter 2010. He said the possibility of a renewed recession at 40%.
Roubini said his forecast assumes the government will lower its estimate for growth in the II quarter to an annual rate of 1.2% “at best.”
“All the growth tailwinds of the first half of the year become headwinds in the second half,” Roubini said, including the government’s $814-billion stimulus plan, hiring for the census, and incentives such the cash-for-clunkers program and tax credits for first-time home buyers.
Economist expects an “anemic, sub- par, below-trend U for many years given the need and process of deleveraging” by households, governments and the financial system.
“With growth at a stall speed of 1% or below, the stock markets could sharply correct, and credit spreads and interbank spreads widen while global risk aversion sharply increases,” he said. “Thus a negative feedback loop between the real economy and the risky asset prices can easily then tip the economy into a formal double-dip,” he said, referring to two recessions in a quick succession.
The Commerce Department may report revised figures on Friday showing the economy grew at a 1.4% pace in the II quarter (earlier estimate was at 2.4%), because of a widening trade deficit, a smaller buildup of inventories and weaker construction.

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  #62  
Old 31-08-2010, 08:03
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Default 30/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]

Sumitomo Mitsui: BOJ efforts will be in vain[/COLOR]

The Bank of Japan (Bank of Japan, BOJ) announced today after an emergency meeting that it will increase funding program by 10 trillion yen ($117 billion) to a total of 30 trillion yen.
Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. believe that such decision of Japanese central bank won’t help to stop the appreciation of the national currency versus the greenback. According to the specialists, yen strengthened mainly because of decline in the pace of US economic growth.
Last week American Commerce Department reported that the country’s economy added only 1.6% in the second quarter that is below the original estimate. Treasuries’ yield is getting closer to the one of Japanese bonds and investors are looking forward to Federal Reserve’s new stimulus measures. As a result, US dollar finds itself under the negative pressure.
Sumitomo strategists note that situation is unlikely to change in the near future, so BOJ efforts to reverse yen’s uptrend will be in vain. The analysts also claim that the market understands this and has little faith in powers of Japan’s central bank.

[COLOR="green"]BofT-Mitsubishi UFJ: dollar will fall to 80 yen[/COLOR]
The Bank of Japan (Bank of Japan, BOJ) announced today after an emergency meeting that it will increase funding program by 10 trillion yen ($117 billion) to a total of 30 trillion yen. It also said it would offer fixed-rate loans to banks with a maturity of six months, and would keep its overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.1%. The central bank refrained from increasing its purchases of Japanese government bonds.
Strategists at Barclays Capital claim that new easing measures announced by the BOJ didn’t provide the positive surprise for the market, so invertors got disappointed and were again selling dollars.
It’s expected that Japanese currency may rise to new 15-year maximum in case the expectations that the Federal Reserve will loosen its monetary policy to support the economy strengthen. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ note that Friday’s speech of Ben Bernanke confirms such assumptions. In their view, yen will climb to 80 yen against its US counterpart by the end of 2010.

[COLOR="green"]JPMorgan: USD/JPY decline doesn’t yet affect US[/COLOR]
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. believe that US monetary authorities won’t act to prevent national currency from appreciation as long as institutional foreign investors keep buying Treasuries. The significant decline in demand for American long- and medium-term securities will cause the yield on them rise making US economic recovery even slower.
At the moment week dollar doesn’t affect the United States, claim the specialists. JPMorgan expects that yen will advance to 79 per greenback and to 99 per euro by the end of 2010.

[COLOR="green"]USD/CAD is consolidating between 1.0506 and 1.0471[/COLOR]
The greenback fell versus loonie from August 25 maximum at 1.0665 to Thursday’s minimum at 1.0525. After that on Friday it made attempt to erase losses rising to 1.0650. Then there was a dramatic decline and the pair USD/CAD got below 1.0500 during today’s Asian session.
Technical analysts note that US dollar confirmed “double top” formation trading against its Canadian counterpart that means that the greenback will be losing.
The pair is currently consolidating between 1.0506 and 1.0471. Resistance levels are found at 1.0520, 1.0600 and 1.0690. Support levels are situated at 1.0450 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.0400/1.0350 (trendline support).

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound gained versus euro[/COLOR]
British pound made today the biggest advance versus the single currency in more than 2 weeks on the speculation that the pace of UK economic recovery will exceed the one of European countries. It happened as British Chambers of Commerce increased its 2010 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%.
Analysts at Commerzbank AG claim that today’s strengthening of sterling was caused mainly by the euro’s weakness. The specialists note that Britain doesn’t face such severe debt crisis as the euro zone does.
At the same time a number of the country’s economic fundamentals keep showing negative dynamics reflecting the problems at the housing market and negative impact of government spending cuts.
According to Hometrack Ltd. data, UK house prices fell in August for the second month in a row. In July they lost 0.1%.
EUR/GBP dropped from today’s maximum at 0.8213 and is trading now below 0.8165.

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  #63  
Old 01-09-2010, 08:35
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Default 31/08/10

[COLOR="Green"]Gain Capital: correlation between Treasuries yield and yen[/COLOR]
Analysts at Gain Capital Inc. claim that the correlation between US 10-year Treasury note yield and Japanese currency rose to 90%.
According to the specialists, it happened as investors tend to avoid risk choosing bonds and, consequently, yields diminish. Yen, in its turn, is regarded as a refuge currency and the demand for it now is also high.
Gain Capital strategists also note that yesterday’s decision of the Bank of Japan to extend lending program isn’t enough to prevent the national currency from strengthening. In their view, close connection between yen and key American government debt will keep due to the absence of positive economic data that would be able to improve market’s sentiment.
Japanese central bank announced on Monday after an emergency meeting that it will increase funding program by 10 trillion yen ($117 billion) to a total of 30 trillion yen, while Prime Minister Naoto Kan said the nation is preparing a 920 billion yen ($10.8 billion) stimulus plan.
Since the beginning of this year US yield lost 1.31% points getting down to 2.53%. Yen added more than 10% climbing to 84.56 per dollar.

[COLOR="green"]Sumitomo Mitsui recommends watching US data[/COLOR]
Yen was again up today – the pair USD/JPY fell from the levels just below 84.65 to set the minimum at 84.05.
Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. claim that there will be no intervention from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) today. The specialists note that investors will become more nervous if USD/JPY gets closer to 80 yen level.
At the same time Sumitomo Mitsui points out that Japan’s monetary authorities may intervene if US economic data scheduled to be released this week turns out to be negative driving yen’s rate versus the greenback up.
The strategists advise to watch attentively housing price data on Tuesday (S&P Case-Shiller HPI 20), manufacturing data on Wednesday (ISM Manufacturing Index) and jobs numbers on Friday (Nonfarm Payrolls).
Traders believe that BOJ will make decisive actions to prevent the appreciation of the national currency only if dollar loses 3-4 yen in one day. Market’s participants suppose that neither the United States nor Europe will support Japan’s intervention as they are currently facing serious economic problems.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro will fall to 1.2523/1.2490[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency didn’t manage to overcome resistance area at 1.2730/35 after it began recovering from last week’s minimum at 1.2585. As a result, the specialists claim that the pair EUR/USD is moving down to support in 1.2605/1.2588 zone.
If euro falls below the mentioned levels, it will decline to 1.2523/1.2490 (mid-July minimum and June peak). This support area will be able to hold the first test, expect the strategists.

As for the longer term, the bank forecasts European currency to lower to 1.2190/50 and then to 1.1876 (June minimum).

[COLOR="green"]Investors seek refuge in yen and franc[/COLOR]
Analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd. and Okasan Securities Co. Ltd. in Tokyo claim that the market is now extremely worried about the prospects of the world’s economy. It’s expected that American employment data scheduled to be released this week on Friday, September 3, will turn out to be negative. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect that the number of jobs in the United States fell in August by 100,000.
In addition, Asian stock market fell with MSCI Asia Pacific Index losing 1.9% and Nikkei 225 Stock Average decreasing by 3.6%. Large New Zealand finance company South Canterbury Finance Ltd. with NZ$1.6 billion ($1.12 billion) of assets is under threat of bankruptcy and the state promised to repay all its depositors.
As a result, investors’ risk aversion is high and they keep increasing demand for such safe haven currencies as Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
BNY Mellon data showed that aggregate inflows in Japanese currency this week were 1.5 times the average compared with 2009 level, while inflows in francs became two times the average amount. The difference in number of hedge funds’ and other large speculators’ bets on franc’s increase compared with those on the drop of Swiss currency rose to 13,868 on August 24, while week earlier it was estimated by 11,750.

[COLOR="green"]Ikeda: unsterilized intervention would be effective[/COLOR]
Japanese deputy finance minister Motohisa Ikeda claimed today that the country’s government is ready to act decisively in case of sharp bounce of yen’s rate, so the currency intervention of Japanese monetary authorities is possible.
The policymaker underlined that unsterilized intervention in which the central bank don’t insulate domestic money supplies from the foreign exchange transactions would be effective and able to stop the strengthening of the national currency. For the operation to be successful, Japan’s government has to cooperate with the central bank.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: downtrend for USD/JPY confirmed[/COLOR]
The greenback rose from the multi-year minimum at 83.60 versus Japanese yen to yesterday’s maximum at 85.90. After that the pair USD/JPY pulled back moving down.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank expect that dollar will show a series of attempts to lower during the next sessions or days.
According to the specialists, downtrend was confirmed when US currency descended yesterday
from the top of a potential “wedge” formation and the 26-day moving average. As a result, any bullish momentum from last week’s “hammer” candle at 83.58 minimum.
Mizuho strategists claim that it’s necessary to remember that the greenback is still not oversold against yen and the volatility is close to its long term average.

[COLOR="green"]Euro may keep growing only above 1.2710 [/COLOR]
The single currency jumped from the session’s minimum at 1.2625 to trade slightly below 1.2710. Such move stimulated bullish momentum for the pair.
According to the technical analysts, EUR/USD will be able to advance to 1.2750/70 zone only if it overcomes 20-day SMA at 1.2710.
Otherwise, euro will return to the levels below 1.2660 and then to the daily minimum and 1.2580.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: franc will gain in the short-term[/COLOR]
Swiss franc climbed today to the record maximum versus the single currency at 1.2897. It happened as UBS AG’s index of consumption which is designed to predict changes for 3 following months rose last month to the 2-year maximum from revised 1.80 in June to 1.86 in July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg also expect that the annual pace of Swiss GDP extended to 2.6% in the second quarter. The data will be released on Thursday, September 2.
Strategists at Royal Bank of Canada in London note that recent Switzerland’s economic data was encouraging, so the Swiss National Bank will let the currency strengthen in the near-term if this process passes slowly. Franc’s currently gaining as investors increased their demand for it as for the safe-haven currency, claim the specialists.

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  #64  
Old 02-09-2010, 08:08
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Default 01/09/10

[COLOR="Green"]UBS: sell pounds versus francs and buy euro[/COLOR]
Analysts at UBS AG advise investors to sell British currency versus Swiss francs at 1.5580 francs with a stop-loss order at 1.5825. Such recommendation is based on the forecast that pound will decline to the record minimum at 1.5000 francs. Yesterday sterling hit the lowest level since January 5, 2009 at 1.5551 francs.
The specialists expect that pound will fall when Britain’s government starts fiscal austerity program that implies reduction of the most departments’ budgets by a quarter. The measures will be announced on October 20. The Treasury’s fiscal monitor says they make public-sector lose 490,000 by April 2015.
The main reason why UBS thinks it’s necessary to turn to franc is that Switzerland’s economy is recovering faster than the European one. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict that annual pace of Swiss GDP growth rose to 2.6% (data is released tomorrow), while euro zone’s economy gained only 1% during this period as it was reported last month.
Never the less, strategists stopped recommending selling the single currency versus franc. According to them, in the short-term investors are to buy back euro at 1.2868 francs.

[COLOR="green"]Yen pulled back on positive data[/COLOR]
Japanese yen declined today for the first time in 3 days versus the greenback and the single currency. It happened due to the encouraging macroeconomic data from China and Australia that helped to improve risk sentiment and make investors increase demand for higher-yielding assets, claim strategists at Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank in Tokyo.
Chinese manufacturing gained pace – the country’s PMI advanced from 51.2 in July to 51.7 in August, while the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected to get only 51.5. Australian economic growth in the second-quarter turned out to be the fastest in 3 years – the country’s GDP extended by 1.2% versus 0.9% anticipated. Asian markets were up with MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 0.8% and Nikkei 225 rising by 1%.
Never the less, analysts at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo warn that positive Asian data doesn’t yet mean accelerating growth of developed countries. It’s vital that American indicators also get better. Otherwise, underline the specialists, risk aversion will remain and drive yen up.
Japanese currency reached the maximal level versus US dollar since June 1995 at 83.60 on August 24.

[COLOR="green"]Forex trading volume reached $4 trillion a day[/COLOR]
According to the data published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) every three years, currency trading volume around the world has reached $4 trillion a day that is 20% up from $3.3 trillion in 2007. However, even though trading volume has risen, its growth pace was less than from $1.9 trillion in 2004 when it added 69%.
The main incentive for investors to come to forex market is the willingness to diversify their assets from home markets in times of high uncertainty. Rising volume of currency trading means globalization of investment process.
US dollar keeps being the main global currency accounting for 84.9% of transactions. In 2007 its share was bigger at 85.6%. The usage of single currency increased from 37% to 39.1%. About 35.9% of forex trade involves Asia-Pacific currencies such as Japanese yen, the South Korean won and the Hong Kong and Singapore dollars compared with 33% in 2007. Australian dollar surpassed Swiss franc and became the world’s fifth-most traded currency.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: buy pounds versus dollar at 1.5415[/COLOR]
British currency was losing to the greenback during the last 2 days before it dropped to support at Fibonacci retracement level.
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that if sterling manages to close today above 9-day MA, the pair GBP/USD will get bullish momentum and may advance to 1.5500 and then to 1.5700.
As a result, the specialists recommend investors buying pounds at 1.5415 stopping below 1.5300.

[COLOR="green"]Merrill Lynch raised yen forecast [/COLOR]
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch increased their forecast for Japanese currency versus the greenback from 90 to 81 yen per dollar by the end of the year. The specialists expect now that yen will trade at 93 per euro by the end of the fourth quarter, while their previous estimate was at 104 yen.
According to Merrill Lynch, US economic data will remain discouraging and investors will be looking forward to more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Such expectations of the market will put USD/JPY under negative pressure.
In case yen’s rate gets close to postwar maximum at 79.75 yen per dollar, Japan’s monetary authorities may intervene to the currency market, note the strategists. In their view, Japanese currency will start gradually depreciating in 2011 when the world’s economic outlook improves. The bank predicts that yen will finish 2011 at 90 per dollar and 99 per euro compared with forecasts of 97 and 107 respectively made earlier.

[COLOR="green"]USD/CHF consolidated below 1.0180[/COLOR]
The greenback lost almost 170 pips versus Swiss franc during Monday’s and Tuesday’s trade. Yesterday the pair USD/CHF found support at this year’s minimum at 1.0135 hit on January 11 and then consolidated below 1.0180 during today’s Asian session.
If dollar goes down, support levels will lie at 1.0125 (January minimum), 1.0100 and 1.0023 (trend line support). If US currency managed to rebound, resistance levels be at 1.0180 (session’s maximum), 1.0220 and 1.0270 (intra-day levels).
Making larger outlook it’s possible to make out that USD/CHF moves are still directed downwards. The pair keeps descending from May maximum at 1.1723 getting closer to long-term support line near 1.0000 that was previously hit in March 2008 at 0.9635 in November 2009 at 0.9915.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/CHF may fall to 1.2750[/COLOR]
The pair EUR/CHF renewed the record minimum at 1.2850.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that its reversal is unlikely at the moment. Possible target of the pair’s decline is set at 1.2750, think the specialists.
If the rate goes up, resistance levels will be at 1.3072 and 1.3104. The market will remain bearish, until the pair overcomes 1.3104 level.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: hedge funds made EUR/CHF fall [/COLOR]
Strategists at UBS note that the decline of EUR/CHF may have happened because of the hedge funds activity.
UBS specialists claim that if hedge funds had taken profit and quitted EUR/CHF market, franc’s strengthening may have stopped and the pair could have chance to visit 1.35-1.40 area.
However, bank notes that US economic growth pace is increasing too slowly and investors’ risk aversion keeps being high. All these factors may pull EUR/CHF down to 1.25 and even below the parity, claims UBS.

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  #65  
Old 03-09-2010, 09:24
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Default 02/09/10 & 03/09/10

[COLOR="Green"]02/09/10

Standard Life: Japanese exporters in danger[/COLOR]

Specialists at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh claim that Japanese monetary authorities have to act in the near future in order to stem the appreciation of the national currency versus the greenback. According to the specialists, strong yen reduces competitiveness of the country’s exporters in comparison with their South Korean rivals.
Annual pace of Japan’s economic growth in the second quarter was equal only to 0.4% compared to 7.2% in South Korea. Yen becomes more and more expensive. Since the beginning of the year it gained 12% versus won.
The Bank of Japan added 10 trillion yen ($119 billion) in liquidity injections on August 31, while Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced that the government is ready to conduct decisive measures if necessary.


[COLOR="green"]Societe Generale: ECB will continue monetary easing[/COLOR]
Economists expect that the outcome of today’s ECB meeting will the decision to stay loyal to the policy of monetary easing.
Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ note that Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber claimed on August 19 that ECB policy should remain loose until next year and the President Jean-Claude Trichet may speak in the same way at today’s press conference that will take place at 12:30 GMT after the rate meeting.
Euro zone’s central bank may announce that it will stay alarmed as US recession may affect the rebound of European economy.
Economists at Nomura International Plc in London point out that the situation in Europe and US seems to be quite opposite. European data is surprisingly positive, while American indicators keep discouraging investors. In their view, the ECB will raise its 2010 growth forecast to 1.4%. In the second quarter the region’s economy added 1% just as it was anticipated.
Strategists at Societe Generale SA in London suppose that in such conditions of uncertainty about the growth outlook the central bank will continue emergency lending measures for banks till 2011. In addition, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast that the ECB will leave its key interest rate at 1%.

[COLOR="green"]RBS: the most beneficial trading strategies[/COLOR]
According to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc indexes, following the trend is the best trading strategy this year with the return of 7.3%. The most profits were gained by investors on 11% decline of the single currency and yen’s appreciation versus the greenback. The most unsuccessful choice to make was volatility strategy that brought only 5.9%.
Trend-followers are capturing momentum in several big currency moves. Specialists at Altegris Investments note that in the current situation of high uncertainty currency markets and interest rates move creating volatility that makes these investors benefit.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. note that volatility strategy that is more effective when fast fluctuations in rates decline won’t help traders win anytime soon as volatility seems to keep being high this year. The economists reinforce their arguments pointing out that even the Fed’s key interest rate changes in rate between 0 and 0.25%
The carry style of investing when traders borrow in lower yield currencies and invest in countries with higher returning assets has lost 4.4% this year, while valuation style of trade returned 4.5%.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: franc’s role in Europe will grow[/COLOR]
Switzerland’s GBP added 0.9% in the second quarter that was above expectations of 0.8% increase. On the annual basis it rose by 3.4%.
Analysts at UBS AG expect that Swiss currency will be regarded as the successor of the German mark as the country’s economic data is strong and is likely to remain so in the coming years. The specialists also note that Switzerland has large foreign exchange reserves and franc is regarded as a refuge currency.
Strategists at ACM Advanced Currency Markets note that as deflation threat disappeared won’t intervene to prevent national currency from appreciation. In their view, Swiss franc will reach the parity with European currency in the near term.

[COLOR="green"]03/09/10

RBC: EUR/GBP will rise to 85.32[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto claim that the single currency may rise to the 3-month maximum versus British pound. Such forecast is based on the fact that the last euro sell-off didn’t make its rate hit new minimum for the first time since February.
In August the pair EUR/GBP fell to 81.42 pence staying above June minimum at 80.68 pence. RBC strategists note that as European currency closed yesterday above 83.20 pence that means that the trend reversed upwards.
According to the bank, euro’s rate will be moving towards 84.82 pence level representing 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its slump from March to June. There’s a possibility of the pair’s advance to July maximum at 85.32 pence, the highest level since May 28, believe the specialists.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that EUR/GBP will rise to 82 pence be the end of 2010.

[COLOR="green"]ECB monetary policy remained loose[/COLOR]
Euro zone’s central bank will stay alarmed during the next year as US recession may affect the rebound of European economy. There are also concerns about the fiscal situations in some indebted euro-region nations.
As it was expected, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet announced that emergency lending measures for banks will remain up to 2011. The ECB will continue offering commercial banks unlimited one-week and one-month loans until at least January 18. In addition, in October, November and December the institution will propose banks 3-month loans at interest rates linked to the ECB’s average benchmark rate over the maturity of the loan.
Also in line with the forecast the ECB Governing Council decided to leave key interest rate 1% for a 17th month staying loyal to the loose monetary policy in order to help euro zone’s economy rebound.
In addition, euro area’s central bank increased its economic growth forecast from 1% to 1.6% in 2010 and from 1.2% to 1.4% in 2011. European economy will gain due to exports and domestic demand recovery.
Dollar under Nonfarm Payrolls pressure
The greenback may show weekly decline versus the single currency and Japanese yen ahead of economic indicators’ publication.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that US non-farm payrolls dropped by 105,000 in August after July’s fall by 131,000. The jobless rate is thought to have added 0.1 percentage point rising to 9.6%. The data will be released today at 1:30 pm GMT. As for the euro zone’s data, retail sales may have increased in July by 0.2%.
Strategists at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney note that European performance is now better than the American one. In their view, euro may strengthen, while dollar’s rate will slightly decrease.

[COLOR="green"]Political uncertainty in Japan[/COLOR]
In Japan Ichiro Ozawa from the Democratic Party who opposes prime minister Naoto Kan in September 14 party election for this position claimed that intervention to the currency market in order to prevent national currency from appreciation is quite possible. Many analysts believe that if Ozawa wins, USD/JPY may start unexpectedly climbing.
Specialists at Barclays Capital, on the contrary, bet on yen’s strengthening. According to them, even in case of Kan’s victory high political uncertainty may drive Japanese currency upwards as the probability of intervention declines.
On August 24 yen climbed to the maximal level since June 1995 at 83.60 yen per dollar under the impact of global risk aversion. The last time when Japan intervened at currency market was in March 2004 when the yen traded at about 109 per dollar.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will gain above 1.2873[/COLOR]
The single currency went up from the weekly minimum versus the greenback at 1.2625 and managed to consolidate above 1.2800.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that EUR/USD may rise to 1.2925/65 and 1.3030/50 in the near term in case euro overcomes 1.2873 level representing 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
If the pair declines, support levels will be at 1.2750/30, 1.2588 (recent minimum) and in 1.2523/1.2490 area (mid-July minimum and June peak).

[COLOR="green"]Roubini prefers dollar, yen and Swiss franc to gold[/COLOR]
Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, believes that it may be more profitable to invest in dollar, yen and Swiss franc in case of the double-dip recession in the global economy.

Although the demand for gold is usually high when risk aversion rises, the currencies mentioned above are able to gain more nowadays due to their greater liquidity than gold.
The economist expects that gold that gained 14% this year will stay in its current trading area. Roubini notes that gold price can change sharply only in case of inflation and the world’s financial meltdown and we observe neither of these things.
In addition, the specialist thinks that the pace of US economic growth will decline in the second half of 2010 pointing out at the weak number of newly created jobs.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: sell pounds versus Aussie[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. advise investors to sell British currency versus Australian dollar looking forward to sterling’s decline to 1.63.
The specialists note that pound may go down below support levels formed by 21-, 55- and 200-day Fibonacci MA for the first time since February 2009 when GBP/AUD reversed downwards.
Citigroup strategists recommend selling pound that lost 6% versus Aussie this year at 1.6880 stopping at 1.7050.


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Old 07-09-2010, 12:50
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[COLOR="Green"]06/09/10[/COLOR]


[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: risk sentiment will define franc's rate[/COLOR]
Analysts at Commerzbank expect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will raise rates from the minimal 0.25% level by the end of 2010, while the Federal Reserve and European central bank may begin hiking rates only by the end of the next year.
The bank believes that Swiss currency will appreciate slowly versus the single currency. The possibility of deflation reduced as Swiss CPI demonstrated no decrease in August after 0.7% July fall, so the central bank is unlikely to intervene to the currency market.
In the absence of economic data this week except Switzerland’s unemployment rate that will be released on Tuesday franc’s rate will depend mainly on investors’ risk sentiment, note the specialists.


[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: yuan will rise to 6.7 per dollar by the year end[/COLOR]
Chinese yuan rose to the maximal level since August 19. It happened due to the start of negotiations between Larry Summers, head of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, and Li Yuanchao, head of the Communist Party’s organization department.
Specialists at Citigroup Inc. believe that the United States will press China to allow yuan gain more. In addition, Citigroup notes that the greenback’s weakness also contributes to the growth of Chinese currency. The analysts suppose that yuan may climb to 6.7 per dollar by the end of 2010.
Yuan gained 0.6% versus its American counterpart since its peg to US currency was revoked on June 19.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: euro rose to 3-week maximum versus dollar[/COLOR]
The single currency reached today 3-week maximum versus the greenback at 1.2918.
Strategists at UBS claim that it happened on the positive Friday’s US payrolls data that lost only 54,000 versus 101,000 forecast decline.
Such encouraging figures eased concerns about double-dip recession in America and revived investors’ risk appetite making them increase demand for euro and growth-linked currencies like the Australian dollar.
Many traders also think that Asian central banks, excluding Japanese one, are selling dollars for euro after they intervened to stem advance in their national currencies versus US dollar.
UBS analysts note that it’s not clear how long optimistic sentiment will remain.

[COLOR="green"]07/09/10
Mizuho recommends investors to but pounds above $1.5480[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London advise investors to buy British currency versus the greenback if it rises to $1.5480 looking forward to further strengthening of the pound. According to the specialists, sterling may advance to $1.56 and then $1.57. The trade should be stopped if GBP/USD gets down below $1.53, recommends Mizuho.
The strategists note that the weekly Ichimoku Cloud is very thin and MA analysis gives bullish results. Rising daily Cloud adds upward momentum as well.
Pound lost 5% against US dollar this year. The pair GBP/USD is currently trading in 1.5375 area.

[COLOR="green"]Forecast Pte expects EUR/USD to rise[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte believe that the single currency may climb to one-month maximum versus the greenback if it overcomes major resistance levels at $1.2839 (50-day MA) and $1.2873 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of euro’s decline from the August 6 maximum at $1.3334 to the August 24 minimum at $1.2588).
If the pair EUR/USD goes higher, above resistance at August 18 maximum at $1.2923, it may be able to strengthen to $1.3334, claim the specialists. It’s also necessary to pay attention to resistance at $1.2961 (50% retracement of the August decrease) and at $1.3049 (61.8% retracement).
According to Forecast Pte, all indicators suppose upward dynamics of the European currency. Euro’s MACD got above its signal line on September 3 for the first time in 3 months. The MACD today was minus 0.0009, while the signal line was found at minus 0.0023.

[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: daily forex outlook[/COLOR]
Specialists at Danske Bank believe that forex market will keep being sideways for the second day in a row, even though US trade will open today after yesterday’s celebration Labor Day.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at this morning’s meeting and didn’t make any changes in monetary policy despite the recent strong domestic data. The analysts believe that Australian dollar will gain versus both its Canadian and New Zealand’s counterparts due to stronger cyclical position of the country’s economy.
In addition, the bank advised to look forward to declines in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY as the risk appetite may worsen rising investors’ demand for yen.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro and dollar will lose to yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank expect that the single currency and the greenback will show downward dynamics trading versus Japanese yen.
The specialists note that there is “triangle” consolidation between the moving averages for the pair EUR/JPY. Resistance at 109.50 is getting stronger and this level is likely to be the upper border of euro’s trading range this week. Mizuho strategists advise investors to sell European currency in 107.70/108.00 area stopping above 109.65. Euro may fall to 106.60, claims Mizuho.
As for the pair USD/JPY, the situation remains bearish as well and the greenback is thought to fall to 83.85/83.50. The analysts recommend selling US dollar in 84.15/ 84.50 zone stopping above 85.25.

[COLOR="green"]Nomura: USD/JPY will fall to 82.50 by the end of 2010[/COLOR]
Analysts at Nomura Securities Co. lifted up their yen forecast from 87.50 to 82.50 yen per dollar by the end of 2010. The specialists believe that Japanese currency may advance to 80 per dollar by March 2011 approaching the record maximum at 79.75 reached in 1995.
The main reasons for forecast revision were global uncertainty and decreasing yields on US debt. Yields on 2-year Treasury notes considered to be the best signal for USD/JPY rate may drop to 0.4% as the economic outlook for the United States is far from encouraging, underlines Nomura.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank expects EUR/CHF corrective rebound[/COLOR]
The single currency declined from Friday’s maximum at 1.3160 getting below 1.3000 today. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/CHF is heading to the previous minimum at 1.2850. In their view, this level will be able to hold bearish pressure in the near term and, possibly, act as base for euro.
Commerzbank specialists ask investors to pay attention to divergence on daily and weekly RSI. According to them, last week the situation was the same: European currency hit record minimum at 1.2850 which wasn’t confirmed by the daily RSI, while the weekly RSI also diverged. As a result, corrective rebound of EUR/CHF seems to be quite likely.

[COLOR="green"]ANZ Banking Group: reasons of Aussie’s decline[/COLOR]
Australian currency weakened today affected by a group of factors.
Firstly, current Prime Minister Julia Gillard managed to win support of key independent lawmakers. As a result, her Labor Party will keep the government and enact a tax on mining companies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% at this morning’s meeting despite strong domestic data claiming that there’s too much uncertainty abroad.
Strategists at Sumitomo Trust Bank believe that strong rebound of the world’s economy is necessary to make Aussie rise above $0.92. Economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne note that the central bank will wait for inflation rate release in October to plan further actions that will put the national currency under negative pressure.
In addition, risk sentiment worsened due to concerns about the financial health of European governments and banks. Germany's banking association announced yesterday that the country's 10 biggest banks may need 105 billion euro of additional capital because of the banking rules revision. Consequently, demand for Aussie that is regarded as the risky asset reduced.

[COLOR="green"]Bank of Japan will act timely[/COLOR]
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa claimed today that the central bank is always considering various policy options and will act in a timely and appropriate way when necessary.
Although Japanese monetary authorities are watching market moves very carefully as well as the impact of strong yen on the country’s economy, they won’t react to short-term forex and stock moves.
Further monetary easing is still possible next month, noted Shirakawa.

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Old 08-09-2010, 14:26
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[COLOR="Green"]Citigroup: AUD/USD will advance[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. claim that Australian currency may climb to 4-month maximum versus the greenback at 0.93 reached last time on April 30.
According to the specialists, the pair AUD/USD is still trading within an uptrend after it has formed reverse “head-and-shoulders” figure of 3 minimums with the deepest in the middle at 0.8770 and the side ones at 0.8860.
Aussie made today corrective decline from yesterday’s 0.9176 mark when the rate approached August 6 level lying at the trend resistance from the April maximum. Support levels are situated at 0.9080 and 0.9032.

[COLOR="green"]BMO Capital Markets: euro will rise to $1.34 in 2012[/COLOR]
Analysts at BMO Capital Markets believe that the pair EUR/USD hit long-term minimum in 1.1870 area in June. In their view, the single currency is slowly recovering since that time and will rise to 1.3400 in 2012.
The specialists note that the average rate of euro during the last 3 months was around 1.2700. European currency is thought to climb to 1.3100 in the first quarter of 2011 and then consolidate in 1.3300 zone in the second half of that year.
Euro will keep gradually strengthening during 2012 to extend to 1.3400 in the second quarter of that year, expects BMO Capital Markets.

[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: dollar forecast reduced[/COLOR]
Analysts at Morgan Stanley reduced forecast for the greenback versus the single currency. The specialists assume that the Federal Reserve will make further steps of monetary easing. In their view, many of the obvious currencies to own such as commodity and those with strong domestic balance sheets are already very expensive.
According to the strategists, euro will trade at $1.36 at the end of 2010 and then decline to $1.32 in the first quarter of 2011, to $1.28 – in the second, to $1.26 – in the third and to $1.24 – in the fourth quarter. Earlier estimate supposed fall to $1.16 and then to $1.12, $1.12, $1.14 and $1.17 in the following quarters.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/JPY will fall to 82.81[/COLOR]
The greenback renewed yesterday 15-year minimum versus Japanese currency at 83.33. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair USD/JPY hasn’t bottomed yet.
According to the specialists, when US dollar broke through support at 83.58 (August minimum) it began moving down to test 82.81 zone (2008-2010 support line).
If American currency manages to recover, it should overcome 84.82 level (20-day MA) to ease current downward momentum.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/USD will rise a bit[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the single currency got held by the 26-day MA and returned into the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Never the less, it’s necessary to take into account that 50% Fibonacci retracement support made euro go up during the last two weeks.
All in all, the specialists say that momentum stopped being bullish, while the European currency isn’t overbought. As a result, the recommendation is to look forward to try small longs at 1.2720 stopping below 1.2575. Mizuho strategists think that EUR/USD will trade in its current area slowly moving upwards to 1.2800 and then 1.2900.

[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: daily forex outlook[/COLOR]
Strategists at Danske Bank note that market’s concerns about financial health of the European banks strengthened. As a result, investors increased demand for Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar.
The pairs USD/JPY and EUR/USD keep declining. The specialists note that support levels for them are at 82.98 and 1.2606, respectively. Danske underline that spreads on sovereign debt of the euro zone countries continue extending, affecting euro’s rate. Three month forecast of the bank is still at 1.24.
Danske Bank economists note that Canadian central bank may move the market today. In their view, bank of Canada’s benchmark rate will be lifted up by 25 basis points. USD/CAD is currently the G10 currency pair with the highest correlation with relative interest rates.

[COLOR="green"]WSJ: stress tests results aren’t accurate[/COLOR]
The recent stress tests of major euro area’s banks the results of which were published at the end of July may have underestimated the size of potentially risky government bonds holdings, wrote yesterday the Wall Street Journal.
Further examination has showed that some lenders excluded certain bonds, and many reduced the sums to account for "short" positions they held. Among them are Barclays PLC and Crédit Agricole SA, while it’s difficult to understand now the total number banks that were misleading financial authorities.
As a result, the effect of the stress tests that were held in order to reassure investors in the soundness of Europe's financial system may be erased.
Concerns strengthen as heavily indebted countries like Ireland and Greece continue to struggle. Among other warning signs, the costs of insuring many bank and government bonds against default in countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy rose above levels that were seen before the stress tests.

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  #68  
Old 09-09-2010, 13:21
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[COLOR="Green"]Citigroup: EUR/USD may fall to $1.22[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. believe that if the single currency breaks down through support level at 1.2588 last touched on August 24 it may lose 4% versus the greenback falling to hit last time on July 1.
The specialists claim that euro’s rate is affected by rising concerns about financial condition of European banks and growing sovereign spreads. Resistance for the pair EUR/USD is situated, according to them, at $1.2923.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: Japan has to intervene urgently [/COLOR]
Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that Japanese monetary authorities have to intervene to the currency market in the “immediate future” as excessive yen’s strengthening threatens the country’s economic recovery founded on exports’ advance.
The specialists warn that if Japan’s currency driven by global risk aversion keeps trading at current levels, production, as well as investment and hiring activity will escape abroad. In February exporters informed the government that they can’t make a profit if the national currency’s rate is higher than 92.90.
All in all, Japan will have to count on its own strength conducting intervention as the United States and Europe won’t raise their domestic currencies in the current economic situation and unilateral intervention will be more effective if it is unsterilized in which the central bank refrains from absorbing extra funding in the market.
Barclays strategists also note that it would be easier for Japan to weaken yen if China allowed its currency to gain more as yen tended to move in the opposite direction to the yuan during the global financial crisis started in September 2008.

[COLOR="green"]CIBC markets: euro will fall to $1.19 in the first quarter of 2011[/COLOR]
Analysts at CIBC markets claim that the single currency will keep falling getting down from 1.3335 at the beginning of August to 1.1900 in the first quarter of 2011. Then, according to the specialists, euro’s rate will reverse and rise to 1.3000 by the end of next year.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: Aussie rose to 4-month maximum[/COLOR]
Australian rose to 4-month maximum versus the greenback stimulated by strong jobs data. The currency managed to overcome resistance at $0.92 climbing to $0.9237.
The number of employed people increased in August by 30,900, while the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News were looking forward to 25,000 gain. The jobless rate decreased from 5.3% in July to 5.1% last month.
Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the direction of monetary policy in the United States and countries like Australia and Canada is completely the opposite. In their view, demand for Aussie and loonie will be higher.
The rise in the Aussie did not give its usual fillip to the U.S. dollar against the yen, via trade in the crosses, reinforcing bearish views on dollar/yen.

[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: EUR/JPY will reverse [/COLOR]
Strategists at Morgan Stanley in London believe that the pair EUR/JPY will reverse and euro will start rising versus Japanese yen. In their view, the concerns of euro zone’s sovereign debt will be erased as weak euro stimulates German export.
The specialists advise to buy the single currency looking forward to its advance to 115 yen with stop-loss at 104.50.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho recommends selling USD/JPY[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the pair USD/JPY continues trading inside the narrow channel noting that investors still didn’t get used to see the rate below 85.00 level.
According to Mizuho strategists, all elements of the chart indicate steady bearish momentum and US currency still isn’t oversold versus its Japanese counterpart.
The specialists expect that the greenback may fall to 81.95/81.50 and advise to sell dollars at 83.65/84.00 stopping above 84.95.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound’s advance was a correction[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that pound’s advance from 1.5300 versus the greenback didn’t change the general downtrend in GBP/USD but was simply a correction.
According to the specialists, sterling will be declining towards 1.5145 and 1.4905 levels representing 50% and 61.8% retracement of the advance from May to August.
If the British currency rises, resistance levels will be found at 1.5570 and 1.5650/1.5714 (50% retracement of the recent decline and maximums). Below these levels the outlook for the pair will remain bearish.

[COLOR="green"]RBC: euro will fall to $1.10 by the middle of 2011[/COLOR]
Strategists at Royal Bank of Canada in London believe that the single currency may drop to $1.10 by the end of the second quarter of 2011.
Such forecast is based on the negative effects that austerity measures will make on the euro zone’s economy that will appear first half of the next year.
The specialists note that governments of periphery European nations aren’t determined to make in their autumn budgets provisions for the 2011 downside risks.

[COLOR="green"]PBOC reminds about euro zone's problems[/COLOR]
Officials at the People's Bank of China (PBOC) claim that although the recovery of euro zone’s economy has turned out to be better than expected continuous debt problems will affect the region’s economic growth.
Chinese monetary authorities note that austerity measures won’t solve fundamental debt issues and underline that sovereign debt risk in Greece and Spain is still high.
As for the global economic outlook, Chinese central bank thinks that the growth pace in the major economies is generally good, while the one in the emerging markets is notably strong.
In addition, PBOC representatives confirmed that the government will continue to reform yuan’s exchange rate mechanism in order to make it flexible.

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  #69  
Old 13-09-2010, 15:38
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[COLOR="Green"]Negative forecasts for EUR/USD[/COLOR]
According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s data, hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on euro’s decline against its American counterpart.
Analysts at TD Securities Inc. and Bank of America Corp. believe that the single currency will weaken versus the greenback even as the pace of US economic recovery declines. The specialists note that $950 billion European bailout program won’t be sufficient to restore the market’s confidence as investors’ concerns are strengthened by Portugal’s and Ireland’s summer credit rating reductions the yields on government debt of which reached the record high compared with German ones. It’s also necessary to mention that the cost of insurance against losses on Greek and Spanish bonds rose to 3-week maximum. In addition, the leading European Germany’s economy starts to show discouraging dynamics with unexpected 1.5% decline in exports in July.
Strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. underline that although both European and American currencies are weak, euro area’s problems are much more severe than US ones and this fact will certainly affect euro’s rate. Specialists at Royal Bank of Canada Europe Ltd. in London note that euro’s decline will accelerate due to the effects of austerity measures on the region’s economy.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the common currency will trade at $1.25 by the end of 2010 decreasing to $1.22 in 2011.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays: USD/JPY may rise to 85 yen[/COLOR]
Tomorrow on Japan the election of Democratic Party’s leader will take place. The current Prime Minister Naoto Kan is opposed by Ichiro Ozawa, one of the key party’s figures proposing immediate intervention to the currency market. Strategists at Barclays Bank Plc in Tokyo claim that the pair USD/JPY may appreciate to 85 yen in case the country’s political situation stabilize.
The specialists also note that the fact medium- and long-term yield differentials between the United States and Japan increased, speaks in favor of the greenback. The extra yield of 10-year Treasuries over Japanese government bonds with similar duration added today 1.68 percentage points rising from 1.64 points on September 10.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/USD inside 4-week channel[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the single currency is trading within its range of the last 4 weeks versus the greenback. The pair EUR/USD is attempting to form temporary base at 50% Fibonacci retracement support level.
According to Mizuho, neither euro, nor dollar is oversold, while weekly MAs have become bullish. The bank specialists advise investors to try buying European currency at 1.2795 stopping below 1.2575. First target 1.2850, then 1.2900.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: euro may rise to 1.2910[/COLOR]
The single currency managed to show a strong rebound during the Asian trade and rose above 1.2800.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that if the pair EUR/USD overcomes 1.2805/21 resistance area, it may become able to advance to 1.2910 zone (maximum of early September). On the contrary, below these levels euro will remain under pressure.
The specialists note that the interim minimum was confirmed at August low of 1.2588. Below this level support will be found in 1.2523/1.2490 zone.

[COLOR="green"]UBS ended recommendation on GBP/CHF decline[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UBS AG in Singapore advise investors to stop betting on the appreciation of Swiss franc versus British pound. Such recommendation was given as the trade started at 1.5580 on September 1 led to 1.6% loss.
Never the less, the specialists still believe that franc will advance helped by the improvement of Switzerland’s economy. At the same time, sterling is thought to decline as it will be affected by UK government’s fiscal austerity program beginning on October 20.
As a result, UBS analysts confess that they are considering the possibility of re-entering this trade at a more favorable level.

[COLOR="green"]China’s economic growth drives Aussie up [/COLOR]
Analysts at KMJ Capital note that forex investors will prefer the currencies of countries having close connection to China demonstrating strong economic growth.
China’s industrial production added 13.9% in August from its 2009 level. The country’s retail sales rose last month by 18.4%, while consumer prices gained 3.5%. Imports climbed by in August reassuring investors that the demand for goods at Chinese market keeps being strong.
Australia exports raw materials to China and that's what's driving the growth of Australian dollar helping, consequently New Zealand’s dollar as well.
Strategists at Credit Suisse in New York believe that one more positive data cycle is needed to confirm US-based recovery. If 2010 GDP growth is expected to be equal to 2.9% in the United States and 1.6% in the euro area, Chinese annual growth pace is estimated by 8-10%.

[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: GBP/CHF may rise to 1.5785-1.5850[/COLOR]
British pound was showing a downtrend versus Swiss franc. It lowered from double top at 1.80-1.8110 area formed in the second half of 2009 to trade last week only slightly above 1.54.
The pair GBP/CHF is currently in 1.5670 zone. Analysts at Danske Bank claim that sterling may rise to 1.5785-1.5850 to cap there.
In the longer term the outlook, according to the specialists, keeps being negative below 1.6760. As a result, the bank recommends selling British currency expecting that its rate will drop to the record minimum at 1.5125 hit last time in December 2008.

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Old 15-09-2010, 14:05
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[COLOR="Green"]ANZ, Barclays: AUD/NZD will rise to NZ$1.30[/COLOR]
Specialists at ANZ National Bank Ltd. and Barclays Capital claim that New Zealand’s dollar may drop to 5-month minimum versus its Australian counterpart.
Such forecast is based on the fact that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at 3% tomorrow, while Australia is likely to lift the rates up as its economic growth is gaining pace.
In addition, the country will face the consequences of the most destructive earthquake in 80 years that occurred at the beginning of the month. New Zealand’s third quarter GDP can get 0.4% lower due to the disaster. The costs of the earthquake are estimated to reach NZ$4 billion ($2.9 billion).
According to ANZ National Bank’s forecast, kiwi will fall to NZ$1.30 per Aussie in the next few months. Strategists at Barclays Capital note that New Zealand’s dollar will bottom at these level as the nation’s central bank may still raise rates later when economy rebounds after reconstruction.
Treasury Department predicts that GDP will gain 0.5 percentage point in the year to June 30, 2011. Analysts at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. believe that kiwi will advance to NZ$1.25 per Aussie by the end of 2010. In their view, the key rate will be hiked in December and through 2011 to rise to 5.5% at the beginning of 2012.

[COLOR="green"]Japan performed currency intervention[/COLOR]
Japanese yen fell from 15-year maximum versus the greenback as Japanese monetary authorities performed currency intervention for the first time since 2004 in order to stop excessive appreciation of the national currency.
Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced today that the country unilaterally sold yen. It happened a day after Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan was reelected as the leader of ruling Democratic Party and it was not he but his opponent Ichiro Ozawa who called for urgent intervention.
The pair USD/JPY rose from 83.04 yen at today’s opening to set maximum at 85.13. It’s trading currently in area.
The analysts’ reactions on the intervention were different. Strategists at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong note that Japan’s actions at the currency market will be successful only with support from the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank. In their view, yen’s strengthening against US dollar is driven mainly by US problems.
Economists at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore, on the contrary, believe that the result of the intervention may be much better than it’s thought as direct comments of Noda create a “strong conviction” in the market players. Analysts at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo think that what happened today shows that Japanese government are resolute to hold yen from dangerous gains.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: AUD/USD may rise to 0.9850[/COLOR]
The pair AUD/USD was trading within an uptrend since the beginning of June. Australian currency rose from 0.8081 climbing above 0.9300. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that Aussie is likely to reach this year’s maximum at 0.9400.
According to the specialists, if Australian dollar closes the day, week, month or quarter above 0.9400 during the next 12 working days, it may strengthen to 2009 maximum or even 2008 high at 0.9850.

If the week is closed below 0.9850, bullish prospects for the pair may be erased, while below 0.8600 the forecast should be reviewed.

[COLOR="green"]Franc hit the parity with US dollar[/COLOR]
Yesterday Swiss franc hit parity with the greenback for the first time since December 2009. Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG in London claim that Swiss currency is driven by high uncertainty in the major currencies, especially, in euro and US dollar.
The euro zone and the United States suffer from rising debt and economic problems. European ZEW index of investor and analyst expectations fell in August from 14 to minus 4.3. Switzerland’s economic data, on the contrary, seems to be quite strong and investors regard franc as a refuge currency increasing demand for it.
Strategists at Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London note that the pair USD/CHF is moving within the clear downtrend. Since the beginning of June dollar lost 15% against its Swiss counterpart.
Franc climbed to 99.33 centimes that is its strongest level since November 26. The pair USD/CHF is currently trading in 1.0030 area.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: 85.92/96 – resistance for USD/JPY[/COLOR]
The greenback jumped from the 15-year minimum versus Japanese yen at 82.85 getting above 85.00.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair USD/JPY is moving up towards resistance in 85.92/96 area limited by August maximum and the May-to-September downtrend line intersect as well as by mid-July minimum at 86.27.
If dollar declines, support levels will be found at 84.58 (breached June-to-September resistance line), 84.45 (September 13 maximum) and 83.59 (August minimum).

[COLOR="green"]UBS: SNB may raise benchmark rate[/COLOR]
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) that meets on Thursday, September 16 may raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% as a measure against the threat of increasing wages and domestic property prices, claims UBS AG. Other 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the central bank will leave key rate at its current 0.25% level.
UBS strategists note that franc’s appreciation is usually regarded as the limiting factor for hiking rates as monetary tightening makes the currency advance even more. However, the specialists suppose that the risks of overheating in the domestic economy will seem for the SNB more urgent and important to deal with than the negative effects of strong franc on the country’s exports.

[COLOR="green"]Yuan rose to maximum since 1993[/COLOR]
Chinese currency advanced to 6.7330 that is the maximal level versus the greenback since 1993 the country’s central bank unified official and market exchange rates. It happened under the influence of expectations that the People’s Bank of China will let yuan gain more due to growing inflation pace and pressure from abroad.
China’s CPI increased by 3.5% in August from its 2009 level showing the biggest advance in 22 months. Chinese monetary authorities note that higher exchange rate will help to decrease import prices and ease inflationary pressure.
US House Ways and Means Committee begins today a 2-day meeting devoted to China’s currency policy. Last week Larry Summers, head of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, met Chinese officials in Beijing in order to persuade China allow yuan appreciate more quickly.
China had a $119 billion trade surplus with the United States in the first half of 2010, according to the data from US Commerce Department. As a result, this year’s figures may exceed 2009 level of $227 billion.

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Old 16-09-2010, 15:49
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[COLOR="Green"]16/09/10

Goldman Sachs: Japan’s intervention will be a success[/COLOR]

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London believe that Japan’s currency intervention will turn out to be successful.
According to the specialists, the efforts of Japanese monetary authorities will drive yen’s down to 90 yen per dollar in a year. There is still the risk that Japanese currency will be strengthening during the next half of the year to the record maximum at 79 yen versus the greenback under the influence of US monetary easing, Japanese trade surpluses and the market’s testing the authorities’ resolve to intervene. As a result, Japan may have to sell more yens in order to prevent national currency from excessive gains that affect the country’s economy.
There are different estimates for Japan’s intervention – from $1.2 billion by the Nikkei newspaper to $20 billion from BNP Paribas SA’s point of view.

[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: end of recommendation to sell EUR/CHF[/COLOR]
Analysts at Morgan Stanley in London stopped advising investors to sell the single currency versus Swiss franc. The recommendation was ended as the specialists believe that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may intervene to the currency market to prevent franc from excessive strengthening after the same actions performed by Japanese monetary authorities. Although Switzerland’s fundamentals are still strong, the risk-reward has worsened, claims Morgan Stanley.

[COLOR="green"]Hedge funds lost on Japan’s intervention[/COLOR]
Yesterday currency intervention conducted by Japan to weaken yen from its 15-year maximum made lose hedge funds betting on the strengthening of Japanese currency.
Many funds were looking forwards to the further yen’s appreciation on the negative outlook for the world’s economy regarding it as a refuge currency. Some investors, especially Japanese, were stimulated by low returns in global stock markets. Yields on Japanese long-term government bonds remain under 2% but Treasuries yields aren't much higher. As a result, there is little incentive to go to the overseas markets.
Japanese currency that climbed by 10% since the beginning of this year slumped by 3% on Wednesday as Japanese monetary authorities sold the national currency.
John Taylor managing FX Concepts, a $7.8 billion hedge fund, notes that the situation is serious and that it’s necessary to buy some dollars. Mr. Taylor believes that yen may return higher in 1-2 months. However, he noted that the Bank of Japan tends seems to be quite decisive when the rate reaches extreme levels, so future dynamics of yen looks uncertain.
Even though the fund cut so far its portfolio in trades wagering on yen from 55% to 35%, it lost 2% on Wednesday. All in all, FX Concepts gained 12% this year also due to earlier advance of yen. Among other losers there are Aspect Capital Ltd. and Winton Capital Management.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: USD/JPY will retest minimums[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that yesterday’s long bullish engulfing candle will make the pair USD/JPY stay above at least Wednesday’s minimum at 82.87 for the rest of the week.
The specialists regard current advance as a possibility for new decline to the minimums that may take place the next six or more weeks.
As a result, Mizuho strategists recommend selling the greenback at 85.35 with stop orders above 86.05. The target for the pair is set at 84.90 and maybe at 84.00.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: EUR/USD will rise to $1.325[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. in New York claim that the single currency may climb to $1.325 versus the greenback.
The specialists note that the pair EUR/USD overcame $1.292 level forming reverse “head and shoulders” figure. There are 3 minimums with the lowest in the middle.
Never the less, Citigroup strategists point out that general sentiment is still bearish, although not as strong as it used to be.

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Old 17-09-2010, 08:54
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Some more analytic materials coming today!
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Old 17-09-2010, 09:07
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Please stay tuned
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Old 22-09-2010, 10:02
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[COLOR="Green"]21/09/10

Forecast Pte: AUD/USD may rise to 0.9850[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Forecast Pte in Singapore expect that if Australia’s dollar overcomes resistance at 0.95 (psychological level) and 0.9650 (May 21 and 22, June 9, and July 2 maximums), it may rise to the record maximum versus the greenback at 0.9850 set in July 2008.
Daily momentum indicators also point at Aussie’s future advance. The Australian currency’s MACD today was equal to 0.0125 that is above the signal line situated at 0.0100.
The pair AUD/USD finds itself in an upward channel created by an upper trend line that connects June 18, June 22 and August 6 maximums and a lower trend line that connects June 8 and July 6 minimums. As a result, Aussie is thought to be gaining as long as it doesn’t break below the lower trend line. Forecast Pte specialists note that Australian currency’s rate seems to be rather firm, so there are no signs of a downturn yet.
Australian dollar added this month 6.2% versus its American counterpart. Yesterday AUD/USD climbed to 2-year maximum at 94.94 cents.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup advises to sell euro versus dollar[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. advise investors to sell the single currency versus the greenback. Such recommendation is based on the forecast that the pair EUR/USD will lower to one-month minimum.
According to Citigroup, it’s necessary to place sell orders at $1.3095 with target at August 24 minimum of $1.2588. The specialists note that on Friday, September 17, euro capped at $1.3158 level representing 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from 3-month maximum on August 6 to August 24, the minimal level since July.
On the upside, if EUR/USD overcomes resistance area at $1.3158/$1.3228, it will be able to advance to $1.3334.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas advises to sell pounds versus Aussie[/COLOR]
Strategists at BNP Paribas recommend selling pounds versus Australian dollars.
Bank specialists confessed that they keep preferring commodity currencies and Aussie the most. Sterling, on the other hand, seems to have quite negative prospects. British currency is strongly affected by discouraging housing market data. The number of mortgage approvals, for example, fell from 47,000 in July to 45,000 in August as yesterday’s data has shown.
As a result, UK monetary policy is very likely to remain extremely loose for longer period of time and pound will stay under pressure.


[COLOR="green"]22/09/10

BNP Paribas: euro will rise to $1.40 by the end of October[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at BNP Paribas SA in New York believe that the single currency may rise to 7-month maximum versus the greenback as it managed to overcome its 200-day MA at $1.3220. The pair EUR/USD broke the trend line for the first time since May 2009.
BNP Paribas expects that euro will advance to $1.40 by the end of October or at the beginning of November. The fact that the European currency was able to close above $1.32 yesterday means points at its strength in the longer-term. This week its rate can rise already to $1.33 or $1.34, forecast the specialists.
On Tuesday the pair EUR/USD gained 1.6% rising from $1.3061 to $1.3265 at 4:52 p.m. in New York.

[COLOR="green"]RBS Morgans: Aussie may rise to US$0.978[/COLOR]
Australia’s currency supported by rising risk appetite renewed 2-year maximum at 0.9582 during today’s Asian trade. Then its rate lowered a bit staying between 0.9560 and 0.9570, 0.14% above yesterday’s closing level.
Australian dollar was helped today by the encouraging economic data – MI Leading Index added 0.4% in July after losing 0.1% in the previous month.
It’s very important that minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s this month meeting released yesterday suggested that interest rates may be lifted up to correspond the country’s economic expansion. Specialists at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo note that the opposite direction of Australia’s and US monetary policy will keep driving Aussie up.
Technical analysts at RBS Morgans are quite bullish on Australian dollar expecting that the pair AUD/USD will advance to US$0.978 in coming months. Some traders even bet that Aussie’s going to strengthen to parity with its US counterpart.
If the pair keeps climbing, resistance levels will be found at 0.9600 and 0.9660. If the rate goes down, support levels will lie at 0.9520 and 0.9480.

[COLOR="green"]BofT-Mitsubishi UFJ: euro may rise to 114.00 yen[/COLOR]
Strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the pair EUR/JPY that has renewed so far 6-week maximum trading currently above 113.0 may climb today to 114.00. In their view, the demand for the single currency has increased after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement suggested that US monetary authorities intend to allow additional stimulus measures.
The bank’s specialists note that the market is still very cautious on the prospect that Japanese monetary authorities will perform currency intervention to prevent the national currency from excessive growth. The near term resistance level is found, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, at 115.00.

[COLOR="green"]The Fed is expected to extend monetary easing[/COLOR]
Although US monetary authorities didn’t announce new purchases of securities, they claimed yesterday that the Federal Reserve will be ready to conduct additional stimulus measures in case of necessity. The purpose of such policy is to stimulate the country’s economic growth and support prices.
The majority of analysts agree that the Fed aims to extend monetary easing that will certainly have a negative impact on the greenback. The Federal Open Market Committee statement also said that the FOMC keeps closely watching the country’s economic prospects and changes at financial markets.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will rise to 1.3465/1.3510[/COLOR]
The single currency rose yesterday above 200-day MA at 1.3210 and overcame 1.3000 level today. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is now moving towards August maximum at 1.3334 and then to double Fibonacci retracement in 1.3465/1.3510 area.
Never the less, the specialists note that there’s a gap at 1.3150, so euro may firstly lower to fill it and only then start gaining. The outlook for the pair is bullish above the 1.3020, says Commerzbank.

[COLOR="green"]Analysts on negative prospects of dollar-crosses[/COLOR]
US dollar was losing versus its major counterparts since the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement suggested that US monetary authorities intend to allow additional stimulus measures. The yields on 10-year Treasury bond dropped almost to summer minimums in 2.45/40% area.
Strategists at Barclays Capital expect that if the pair GBP/USD closes the week above 1.5680, USD/CHF – below 0.9915, the prospects of the greenback will be regarded as quite bearish till the end of this year.
Specialists at UBS suppose that it’s possible to conclude on the Fed’s comments that the monetary policy will be eased on the next FOMC meeting in November even if the country’s economic growth doesn’t get much worse. According to UBS forecast, the pair EUR/USD will keep trading 1.30 and 1.40, USD/JPY– in 83-87 range, USD/CHF – in 0.95-1.02 range and GBP/USD – between 1.50 and 1.60.

[COLOR="green"]CBI reduced Britain’s 2011 growth forecast[/COLOR]
Confederation of British Industry reduced its forecast for the pace of UK economic growth. According to the institution, the country’s GDP will add only 2% in 2011, while its previous estimate made in June pointed at 2.5% increase.
Such deterioration of the expectations was caused by the anticipated effect of the biggest postwar budget spending cut that with no doubts will harm British economy.
In addition, the CBI claimed that the Bank of England is unlikely to lift up interest rates until the second quarter of the next year.
As for 2010 GDP forecast, it was revised upwards from 1.3% to 1.6% as economic activity in the second quarter revives a bit.

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Old 28-09-2010, 15:12
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Default 28/09/10

[COLOR="Green"]Gaitame: AUD/JPY will fall to 2-week minimum[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Gaitame.Com Research Institute Ltd. expect Australian dollar to hit 2-week minimum versus Japanese yen.
The specialists note that the line, connecting September 8 and 14 minimums, shows that Aussie has reached its maximums. The pair AUD/USD went below this line on September 23, so it’s possible to say that Australian currency tests its way downwards and the line is turning from support to resistance.
According to Gaitame, Aussie will lower to its 20-day MA at 79 yen area. If its rate gets under this level, the slump to the line that connects August 25 and 31 minimums lying approximately at 78.33 yen. Last time the currency dropped below this level was on September 15.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: loonie will rise to 0.9931 versus US dollar[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. believe that Canadian dollar will rise to the maximal level since April 21 versus its US counterpart at 0.9931.
It’s possible, claim the specialists, that loonie’s growth will continue up to 0.9059 stimulated by rising crude oil that is Canada’s biggest export. The analysis of crude oil’s trend, in its turn, shows that its price may advance to $100 a barrel as converged weekly MA indicate strong advance of the commodity in the near term.
Citigroup strategists note that the pair USD/CAD formed 3 minimums testing 1.0110/40 area. According to them, when it happens for the fourth time, the greenback’s rate may break down.
Canada’s dollar reached record maximum on November 7, 2007, at 0.9058.

[COLOR="green"]UBS: franc keeps showing its strength[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at UBS note that the pair USD/CHF is still trapped within the downtrend. If the greenback falls below 0.9786, it will be pulled down to support at 0.9625. If dollar’s rate goes up, resistance levels will be found at 0.9983 and 1.0183.
As for the pair EUR/CHF, the specialists expect it to trade in range 1.2991 and 1.3391. If the single currency breaks down below 1.2991, it will return to the recent minimums at 1.2766 zone.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will consolidate[/COLOR]
The single currency recovered versus the greenback from 1.2700 area at the beginning of September to 5-month maximum in 1.3500 zone.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that further advance of the pair EUR/USD was held by double Fibonacci retracement at 1.3465/1.3510 levels. As euro has reached its initial target, it’s likely to consolidate in the near term. The bank specialists regard profit taking in this area and consequently some decline as quite possible.
If European currency manages to rise above 1.3510, it will start advancing to 1.3608 (55-week MA) and then to 1.3915 (200-week MA) in the medium term. Then the market will lose its pace and begin moving down, believes Commerzbank.

[COLOR="green"]UBS cut forecast for US dollar versus euro[/COLOR]
Analysts at UBS AG cut their short-term forecasts for the greenback versus the single currency looking forward to quantity easing conducted by the Federal Reserve. The specialists expect that the Fed will increase Treasury purchases in order to stimulate the country’s economic growth.
UBS reduced 1-month forecast from $1.28 to $1.35 per euro and diminished 3-month estimate – from $1.15 to $1.25 per euro.
It’s also necessary to mention that the strategists increased 3-month projection for the Swiss franc from 1.30 to 1.28 francs per euro.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: dollar will fall to 83.90-83.50 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Barclays Capital have negative sentiment for the prospects of the greenback in its trade versus Japanese yen.
The specialists underline that the pair USD/JPY closed lower after its Friday’s upside spike that means that market players prefer selling. Since then the pair’s rate began fluctuating within the narrow range limited on the upside by resistance at 60-day MA at 85.75 and 84.10 yen level on the downside.
As a result, Barclays Capital expects US currency to move down towards 83.90-83.50 yen.

[COLOR="green"]MIG bank: GBP/USD may rise to 1.6458[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at MIG bank claim that British pound is moving firmly upwards versus the greenback forming the second in a row bullish weekly “thrust” pattern.
The recent minimum at 1.5297 is regarded by the specialists as the end of the correction of the 1.4230/1.5997 bullish swing, with support in 1.5511/1.5675 area.
Bank analysts believe that if the pair GBP/USD manages to overcome swing’s maximum at 1.5997, it will be able to rise to 1.6458, while the key resistance will be found at 1.6878/1.7043 levels (August/November 2009 maximums).
If sterling drops below1.5511 would, it would mean that the pair’s advance from 1.5297 was corrective, increasing the risk of eventual breakdown through 1.5297 for 1.4948/1.5000 (outside week support/psychological) and 1.4781.

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Old 30-09-2010, 15:12
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Default 30/09/10

[COLOR="Green"]

Barclays Bank: euro’s advance versus yen will be over[/COLOR]

Technical analysts at Barclays Bank Plc in Tokyo claim that euro’s 2-week advance versus Japanese yen may be over as it’s getting closer to resistance in 114.05/45 area. The 114.05 yen level represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of drop from April 5 maximum at 127.92 yen to August 24 minimum at 105.44 yen, while at the level of 114.45 yen there are May 21 and July 27 maximums.
In addition, the single currency’s 14-day stochastic oscillator against yen was today at 95, while the threshold for the indicator is at 80 level. As a result, it’s possible to say that euro is overbought and that it’s likely to start falling in the near term.
If the pair EUR/JPY gets down below support levels at September 21’s minimum of 111.45 yen, the pair will definitely cap. The European currency gained 5.2% versus its Japanese counterpart this quarter.

[COLOR="green"]ANZ Bank expects correction of AUD/USD[/COLOR]
Specialists at ANZ Bank in New York joined the economists who expect that Australian dollar will rise to parity with its US counterpart. In their view, the pair AUD/USD will reach 1.0000 level in 2011, though on a short period of time.
However, the specialists underline that there’s correction risk in the near term, so they advise to sell before 0.9850 and then buy at 0.9300.
ANZ strategists believe that the greenback will rebound in the middle of 2011 as American economic situation improves, but note that the Reserve bank of Australia may be quite aggressive raising rates that will provide strength to Aussie as well.

[COLOR="green"]RBNZ about factors influencing kiwi's rate[/COLOR]
Officials at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand claim that since financial crisis broke out in 2008 the rate of New Zealand dollar was influenced more by risk appetite than interest-rate differentials. According to the country’s central bank such relation may be explained by the fact that markets have become much more volatile.
Averagely, over 50% of time the pair NZD/USD was following the movements of yield differential between New Zealand and the United States, during the 30% of time – commodity prices and the rest of the time –the changes in risk appetite.
RBNZ specialists note that if New Zealand’s rates remain so much below Australia’s ones, demand for the kiwi may slump. This quarter New Zealand’s dollar added 7.5% versus the greenback, while its neighbor’s currency managed to add 15% against US dollar.
New Zealand’s central bank also reported that turnover volume in the national currency market has declined by about 30% from 2005 to 2007. Investors’ demand for kiwi is less than for Australian and Brazilian currencies due to its lesser liquidity and lower relative borrowing costs in the country.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: the pair EUR/USD will consolidate[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency climbed versus the greenback to its 55-week MA at 1.3611. According to them, there’s some divergence on the daily RSI showing that the pair EUR/USD is likely to consolidate.
The specialists believe that on the downside euro will find support in 1.3510/1.3465 area and advise to buy there looking forward to the pair’s advance towards 300-week MA at 1.3916.
If the European currency breaks down through support at 1.3465, it may start falling to 200-day MA at 1.3190, forecasts the bank.

[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro under pressure of negative news[/COLOR]
European currency found itself today under pressure of negative news losing to 14 of its 16 main counterparts.
Firstly, Moody’s Investors Service reduced Spain’s rating by one step to Aa1 from Aaa with stable outlook. The downgrade was made due to the country’s economic weakness.
Secondly, the Irish central bank announced that 2 Irish banks need additional capital of 14.4 billion euro. If all goes well the Anglo Irish Bank that was nationalized last year will need 6.4 billion euro from the government and in case of unexpected losses it may require 5 billion euro more. Support of Allied Irish bank will cost 3 billion euro in capital and the government is going to announce plans to recapitalize the lender.
Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo claim that the current situation in Ireland unveils serious structural problems in the euro area. In their view, there can be another round of euro’s decline.

[COLOR="green"]Societe Generale: month and quarter end weights on euro[/COLOR]
Strategists at Societe Generale SA in Paris claim that euro’s decline was provoked partly by the bearish players who set sell orders after the single currency added 10% versus the greenback this quarter.
Economists at Lloyds Banking Group believe that the extra volatility is delivered by the end of September as well as the end of the third quarter as the market players struggle with month-end fixings notes.
The bank says that it’s expected that the ECB lunchtime fix is likely to be negative for euro, while the afternoon London fix, on the contrary, will weight on US dollar.

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  #77  
Old 05-10-2010, 07:30
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Default 04/10/10 & 05/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]04/10/10

Commerzbank: euro will rise to 1.3920/55 versus US dollar [/COLOR]

The single currency climbed above 1.3700 to reach the 6-months maximum at 1.3800.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that euro’s poised to rise to 1.3920/55 area limited by 200-week MA and 50% retracement of the decline from 2008. The specialists note that the pair EUR/USD is likely to find resistance in this zone and reverse downwards.
If the European currency breaks down through support at 1.3638, it would be the first sign that upside momentum is fading and the 200-day MA at 1.3184 will come in sight as the possible target.

[COLOR="green"]Aussie ahead of RBA meeting[/COLOR]
Australian dollar traded today near its 2-year maximum at 0.9749 versus its American counterpart as it’s widely expected that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise tomorrow its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75%.
Strategists at National Australia Bank Ltd. regard the potential rates’ hike as necessary in order to ease inflation pressure. Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that the pair AUD/USD may show significant advance if the rates are increased.
If Australian central bank doesn’t increase borrowing costs or provide steady accompanying statement, Aussie may be affected on its way to the maximums in 0.9850 area.


[COLOR="green"]Wen Jiabao: China will buy Greek bonds[/COLOR]
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao claimed in Athens that the country supports stable euro and won’t reduce its holdings of European bonds. China’s official approved of the measures adopted by the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
The Premier said he aims to improve the domestic investment climate in China and hopes the EU rejects its protectionism.
Wen said that China plans to buy Greek bonds once Greece applies again to the international markets for funding. The country plans to issue new bonds in 2011 after conducting austerity measures to reduce the EU’s second-biggest budget deficit.

[COLOR="green"]05/10/10

Mizuho: EUR/JPY advance comes to an end[/COLOR]


Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo claim that the pair EUR/JPY may start declining after 3-week advance. In their opinion, the single currency is getting close to the key resistance on the weekly Ichimoku Chart trading versus Japanese yen.
The specialists underline that euro’s short-term conversion line at 110.155 yen was below its longer-term baseline at 116.68 that means that the currency is losing momentum.
In addition, European currency has almost reached 116.68 yen area representing 50% Fibonacci retracement of its decline from April 5 maximum at 127.92 to the 9-year August 24 minimum at 105.44 yen.
The strategists note that although euro has climbed to 4-month maximum versus yen it didn’t manage to return to 120 yen level where its subsequent decrease began. It’s important that, according to Mizuho, even if the euro falls after failing to break through upside resistance, its decline will be limited by the top of a daily Ichimoku Cloud in 110 yen area.


[COLOR="green"]Westpac: RBA didn't change benchmark rate[/COLOR]
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided today to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, while the majority of the economists expected its hike to 4.75%.
Strategists at Westpac claim that such decision of Australian monetary authorities surprised the markets noting that Aussie may find itself under negative pressure during more than 24 hours. In their view, all attention will be focused from now at the inflation data that will be released at the end of October. The specialists note that if inflation rate rises, the RBA will have to take some measures of monetary tightening.
According to Westpac, support level for the pair AUD/USD lies at 0.9460. If Australian dollar manages to bounce off this level, its rate may return to the previous range. Otherwise, there will be a greater correction.


[COLOR="green"]Bank of Japan unexpectedly reduced the rate[/COLOR]
Japanese yen survived today the biggest decline versus the greenback during the last 3 weeks as Bank of Japan reduced its key interest rate from 0.1% level on which it stayed since December 2008 to the range of 0-0.1%. According to the country’s central bank, the rates will be kept low in the longer term until prices stabilize and the economy begins recovering.
In addition, Japan’s monetary authorities pledged to expand its balance sheet by 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) to buy assets ranging from government bonds and short-term government securities to commercial papers and corporate bonds.
The BOJ maintained its bank credit program at 30 trillion yen, while its target for monthly purchases of government bonds remained at 1.8 trillion yen.
Strategists at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities note that BOJ actions turned out to be more aggressive than the market\s players had expected and believe that monetary easing will determine yen’s dynamics during some time.


[COLOR="green"]Schneider: SNB won't sell the national currency[/COLOR]
Specialists at Schneider Foreign Exchange in London claim that Swiss National Bank (SNB) won’t make efforts to devaluate its currency like the other major world’s central banks do.
According to the analysts, further franc sales may trigger the growth of Switzerland’s inflation rate, even though the country’s CPI remains within the downtrend. Growth of the money supply on franc’s market will make the SNB refrain from interventions to weaken the national currency.
Swiss franc lost 1.6% versus the single currency during the last 3 months showing the first decline since the second quarter of 2009.


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  #78  
Old 06-10-2010, 09:58
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Default 05/10/10 & 06/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]05/10/10

Moody’s: Ireland's rating may be reduced[/COLOR]

Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service announced today that it may again reduce Ireland's credit rating by one notch from current Aa2.
Among the reasons for the downgrade the specialists name the high amount of additional capital required by the country’s banks to survive, weak economic recovery and rising borrowing costs in form of surging yields.
As a result, Moody’s notes that there are risks to the financial strength of Irish government as well as the danger of further increase of Ireland’s debt and its serving costs.
The last time the agency cut Irish rating was on July 19, while last month it downgraded bailed-out Anglo Irish bank.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: resistance and support for USD/JPY[/COLOR]
The greenback jumped from 83.15/20 zone setting maximum at 84.00 area as the Bank of Japan decided to ease its monetary policy surprising the markets.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the next resistance levels for the pair USD/JPY are found at 84.29 (20-day MA) and 85.13 (55-day MA). According to the specialists, trend reversal will be confirmed only if US dollar closes the day above the latter.
Support levels lie at the recent minimum of 82.87 and 2-year support line at 82.67. The bank supposes that the pair will be able to hold at the lower level increasing the chances of the trend’s switch upwards.

[COLOR="green"]Barclays Capital: EUR/USD will advance in the near term[/COLOR]
The single currency was advancing versus the greenback today rising from the day’s minimum at 1.3637 above 1.3770.
Euro was supported by high demand from the Asian central banks that are trying to diversify currency reserves from US dollar built up in order to curb excessive gains of their national currencies.
Strategists at Barclays Capital expect that the pair EUR/USD will continue advancing in the near term as American currency is affected by the slump of 2-year US yields to the record minimum and extreme weakness in USD/CHF that hit today 0.9656 level.

[COLOR="green"]Rabobank: USD/JPY will return to 82.80[/COLOR]
Analysts at Rabobank believe that additional monetary easing measures conducted by the Bank of Japan won’t be able to change bullish market’s sentiment about yen.
The specialists note that the policy of cheap yen didn’t help in the past. In their view, Japanese currency’s appreciation is triggered mainly by Japan's strong current account surplus and high demand for it as a refuge.
As a result, today’s actions of Japan’s central bank just delayed the USD/JPY slump to its post-intervention minimums in 82.80 area.


[COLOR="green"]06/10/10

Goldman Sachs: negative outlook for US economy[/COLOR]

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York regard the outlook for the US economy over the next 6-9 months as negative giving 2 possible scenarios. According to them, the situation may be either “fairly bad” or “very bad”.
In the first case, American economic growth rate will be equal to 1.5-2% through the middle of 2011, while the unemployment rate would moderately advance to 10%. The second variant associated with 25-30% probability implies that the United States will once again slide to the severe recession.
Goldman Sachs specialists believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to take measures in order to stimulate the economy at its next meeting on November 2-3. New York Fed President William Dudley, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren and Chicago’s Charles Evans and well as by the Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke for increasing the volume of assets’ buying.
The market’s already anticipating such outcome – interest rates decrease, stock prices rise and dollar weakens. US 5-year yields fell today to a record minimum of 1.1755%. The analysts think that if the Fed purchases $1 trillion assets more, long-term interest rates may decline by about 0.25 percentage point.
It’s necessary to remind that The Fed bought $1.7 trillion of Treasury and mortgage debt in a program that expired in March.

[COLOR="green"]TD Securities: loonie rose to 2-month maximum[/COLOR]
Canadian dollar rose today to 2-month maximum versus the greenback at 1.0121. It happened as investors increased their demand for tied to growth loonie due to the advance in global stocks and crude oil’s strengthening to 8-week maximum.
During the recent time the demand for commodities has significantly improved making Canada benefit as it gets about half its export revenue from oil, copper, lumber and wheat.
The country’s currency managed to gain 4.2% against its US counterpart since August 31 when it fell to 6-week minimum at 1.0672.
Economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities unit note that Canada’s fiscal strength provides a strong support for the currency. Analysts at Bank of Nova Scotia’s Scotia Capital note that the markets’ turned to risk and there’s upside pressure on Canadian dollar.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/CHF may fall to 0.9500[/COLOR]
The greenback fell yesterday versus Swiss franc below support level at 0.9700 to the record minimum at 0.9642. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if US dollar loses more, it will slump towards 0.9500.
According to the specialists, it’s quite likely that the all time low will be able to hold initial test. Never the less, they point out that there is not enough evidence to look forward the trend’s upside reversal.
The downside pressure may ease if the pair USD/CHF manages to overcome 0.9921 level, notes the bank.

[COLOR="green"]Japan won't intervene ahead of G7 meeting[/COLOR]
Japanese yen is approaching 3-week maximum at 82.87 versus the greenback. The pair USD/JPY is currently trading in 83.00 area.
Yen strengthened due to the expectations that Japan won’t conduct currency interventions before the meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of G7 nations that will take place October 8 in Washington.
Specialists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo note that even if the country’s monetary authorities decide to intervene, the intervention is likely be small-sized and short-lived. Any impact on the yen will probably be limited.

[COLOR="green"]Analysts on EUR/USD prospects[/COLOR]
Strategists at Barclays Capital claim that as long as the pair EUR/USD holds above 1.3640, the single currency is likely to rise above 1.40.
Analysts at BNP Paribas note, however, that there are 2 risks for euro in the near term. Firstly, it’s the European Central Bank’s meeting scheduled on Thursday as the ECB isn’t satisfied with euro’s strengthening. Secondly, it’s the International Monetary Fund’s meeting on the weekend. The bank specialists note that if the IMF decides that undervalued Asian currencies should be appreciated more quickly against the greenback, this may make European currency’s rate decline.
Specialists at UniCredit, on the contrary, expect that the demand for the American currency will stay low until the FOMC November 3 meeting. In their view, even the advance of US payrolls on Friday and the G7 meeting on the weekend won't be able to change dollar-negative market sentiment.

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  #79  
Old 08-10-2010, 13:35
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Default 08/10/10

[COLOR="Green"]Westpac: AUD/USD will rise to $1.02 by the end of 2010[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Westpac Banking Corp., the second-best foreign-exchange forecaster for the 6 quarters through September 30 after Standard Chartered Plc, expect that Australian dollar will climb this year above the parity with its US counterpart.
The specialists claim that it’s quite likely that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy while the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its key interest rate by 75 basis points during the next 9 months. According to Westpac’s estimate, Fed will increase asset purchases by $1.5 trillion. Previously the economists cited $800 billion figure.
Westpac forecasts that Australian currency will reach $1.02 by the end of 2010 and $1.05 by June 2011.

[COLOR="green"]Scotiabank: Canadian dollar’s prospects[/COLOR]
Analysts at Scotiabank Group note that Canadian dollar has traded in a relatively tight range between 0.9222 and 1.0016 during the whole year.
According to the specialists, loonie’s strengthening may be explained by the weakness of its US counterpart. The Dollar Index (DXY) lost 5.4% in September sliding by 11.3% from its June maximum.
Among the on the factors that triggered Canadian currency’s advance there are Canada’s relatively strong sovereign position, high commodity prices, monetary inflows to the country and emerging market growth. All of them show that loonie’s ready to make its way to the parity with US dollar in the next year.
Never the less, bank strategists draw investors’ attention to the fact that in the near term the market hasn’t formed yet the attitude towards the impact that potential extension of Fed’s monetary policy and slowdown of US economy will make on loonie’s rate. It’s necessary to take into account that the two economies are closely connected and have been moving in the same direction for decades.
The economists underline that it became clear that in the situation of weakening external fundamentals the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at 1.0% for several quarters.
All in all, Scotiabank specialists believe that the pair USD/CAD will stay until the end of 2010 in its current range as the drivers of it seem to be too controversial. The year will close in 0.95 (1.05) area and in 2011 Canadian currency will keep appreciating and overcome the parity.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will reverse downwards[/COLOR]
The single currency gained approximately 1.3000 pips during the past month trading versus the greenback and climbed to Fibonacci extension levels in 1.4040/50 zone. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/USD is now likely to start declining with profit taking from current levels.
The first sign that the pair EUR/USD reversed downwards will be its breaking down through 1.3817 area that had previously brought euro upwards.

If European currency manages to rise above 1.4040, the pair will target at 1.4200 and 1.4445/50 (double Fibonacci retracement). The specialists note that they will revise their longer term downward forecast only if the common currency closes the week above 2-year downtrend line at 1.4600.

[COLOR="green"]UniCredit: euro and pound will rebound versus US dollar[/COLOR]
Currency strategists at UniCredit claim that euro’s break above 1.40 versus the greenback provoked profit taking and so did the pound’s advance above 1.60 against US dollar. Never the less, the specialists are sure that investors will use the both pairs’ retreat as the buying opportunity and, consequently, European currencies will be able to return to the recent 8-month maximums.
Analysts at Barclays Capital A claim that if the pair EUR/USD manages to close today above the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and shake the target resistance at 1.4050 it will be able to rise to 1.45/46 area.

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Old 12-10-2010, 13:30
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[COLOR="Green"]Dollar may start rising versus euro[/COLOR]
The greenback survived from July to September the biggest quarterly decline in 8 years. Economists at HSBC Holdings Plc, BNP Paribas SA and Nordea Bank AB suppose that such slump may be the foundation for the advance of US currency. The specialists believe that the expectations of the Fed’s quantitative easing are already priced in dollar’s rate.
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. estimates the amount of bond purchases by the Fed by $500 billion, while last year the central bank bought $1.725 trillion. Bank analysts believe that US economic data hasn’t worsened to such extent that such an aggressive monetary approach becomes necessary. According to the International Monetary Fund forecast, US growth will exceed in 2010 and 2011 the euro zone’s one nearly by 1 percentage point.
Specialists at Nomura Holdings Inc. Fed’s bond purchase program will be equal to $100 billion of Treasuries a month, while economists at Goldman Sachs estimate this figure by at least $1 trillion. In their view, neither the market, nor the Fed is able to foresee how much will this amount be in reality. As a result, investors become nervous and making people nervous and dollar’s rate stays under pressure.

[COLOR="green"]BNY Mellon: US dollar will lower this week[/COLOR]
Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London believe that the greenback may drop this week. Such forecast is based on the fact that the International Monetary Fund meeting didn’t bring successful outcome, while the tensions on the currency markets only strengthened.
The specialists note that the leaders of the world economy failed to find common opinion on how to deal with the global problems, such as increasing dollar weakness, massive capital flows into emerging markets and currency interventions. Currency conflict between the United States and China is becoming more and more strained.
The bank economists don’t think that any sign of agreement is likely appear by the beginning of November.

[COLOR="green"]Ueda Harlow: euro will fall to $1.35[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd in Tokyo expect that after surging by 11% during the past month the single currency will go down back to $1.35 level.
The pair EUR/USD has climbed from September minimum at $1.2644 to 8-month maximum at $1.4029 on October 7. European currency was driven upwards by the speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy.
Euro’s 14-day RSI (relative strength index) versus the greenback stayed above 70 since September 28, for the longest period since March 2008. RSI was above the level regarded as a signal that asset’s price is going to make a reversal. The specialists underline that investors should expect some selling as the pace of euro’s advance was too high and the rate reached $1.40.
In the longer term US dollar will remain under pressure. The Fed will publish today the minutes of FOMC September meeting. Next monetary policy meeting will take place on November 2-3. Ueda Harlow expects easing measures to come next month citing poor US labor market data – non-farm payrolls lost 95,000 in September, while the economists were looking forward to only 5,000 decline.

[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: EUR/USD will manage to retain high levels[/COLOR]
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. in London claim that euro will be able to hold its high levels versus US dollar. The specialists note that such outlook is quite likely after the weekend’s International Monetary Fund meeting didn’t help to find how to prevent further differences over currencies.
Citigroup notes that there are still little sings that the recent surge of the single currency is affecting euro area’s economy. The economists believe that it will take the ECB longer to express openly its concerns about euro’s rate than it took the Federal Reserve.
On the contrary, Citigroup expects that the easing policy advocated by the Federal Reserve will even make the European nation some good as it will push higher the demand for riskier assets such as Greek, Irish, Portuguese and Spanish government bonds.

[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas expects AUD/USD to decline[/COLOR]
Aussie has been retreating from yesterday’s maximum at 0.9906 to the levels at the 0.98 area. Currency analysts at BNP Paribas expect that Australian dollar can lose more trading versus its US counterpart.
The specialists warn that the prospects of the Fed’s quantitative easing measures have already been priced in dollar’s rate. Speculation that the Federal Reserve will announce about new Treasuries purchases at the beginning of November is weakening the greenback. As a result, if the amount of monetary stimulation turns out to be less than expected, the market will get very disappointed.
According to BNP forecast, the pair AUD/USD needs to retreat to 0.95 for the further advance to 1.02.

[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: EUR/USD will drop to 1.3690/40[/COLOR]
The single currency went lower from its 8-month maximum at 1.4029 reached on October 7 to the levels only slightly above 1.3800.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank say that the market’s getting more bearish and note that there’s a risk of more profit taking. Yesterday the pair EUR/USD was trading sideways due to the market holiday, but today the bank the bank is looking forward to further selling. As euro broke through support in the 1.3830/00 area, it is poised to decline to 1.3690/40, and then to 1.3490.
European currency will be able to rise to 1.4200 and then to double Fibonacci retracement at 1.4445/50 only if it overcomes 1.4050 level.

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