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EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)

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  #1  
Old 17-02-2009, 20:06
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Default EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)

Hi!
I believe forex can give a great % of return on deposit. I think all of us know the phrase "a trader who has +40% a year is a king of Wall Street". The peculiarity of this phrase is that it's not actual by now, when an absolute record is ~70000% (!) a month!
A trader should make a choice between long-term positions (with a high % of winning ratio) and scalping (attempts to catch the most miserable moves in price). I decided to choose last one.

In my journal I will post my scenarios of scalping at EU and EJ. I hope I could read something from you, with your own thoughts.
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Old 22-02-2009, 12:32
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Default Market Overview

Before starting scalping the following week I made an attempt to look at the market more closely in order to find the major movement.

It's not hard to understand, that I came to such a conclusion after a bullish burst at the end of Friday, which reversed the gains of the whole week and - unfortunately - the amount of my money as well.

But it doesn't make me afraid. I'm eager: you can start making money at Forex only after you learn losing money without emotions.
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Old 22-02-2009, 13:04
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Let me start from analyzing EURJPY instrument, as its position seems for me more clear than on EURUSD.

4h chart:
After the price touched 131 res. level for the 3rd time, it started to move lower consequently. I counted traditional 5-wave downtrend.
*I should mention that most of all I appreciate Elliot and Fibonacci theories in analyzing price.*

When the price made a new low at 112.1 (21. Jan) it reversed and till this day it seems to be in consolidation phase: sometimes price action goes mad, but it is still standing in 112-120 range.

I zoomed this consolidation sector to look at it in details. In order to complete the pattern it should get once more higher than the previous high @ 120.32.

Then a question stands: till when will the price retrace? On daily chart 112.1 is the lowest point counting from August'08 downtrend. I doubt the price will go lower than 112, because on daily chart the 5th wave of downtrend is also completed (we counted it on 4h TF).

It seems for me that we are close to begin a bullish movement. This idea is also supported by growing concern of strong Yen from Japan government, JPY crosses are to go higher in the coming weeks.

Speaking about scalping, I will watch 3-wave correction heading down in the next few days.
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-22.02.09-daily.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-22.02.09-4h.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-22.02.09-4hzoom.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-22.02.09-1h.jpg  
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  #4  
Old 23-02-2009, 00:29
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Default Scalping

EDITED BY ADMIN.

Last edited by AshFX; 23-02-2009 at 01:10. Reason: Please keep posts relevant to discussion.
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  #5  
Old 23-02-2009, 13:38
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Hi Tovinces,
I like the way you laid out the information there and I do thank you.
The question is that where you expected a rebound of the 120.50 level?
My other question is that lets say it did break your lower level boundary wouldnt that expose the pair to further downside?
Still a newbie around here, and trying to learn as much as possible.
Thanks
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  #6  
Old 23-02-2009, 16:58
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Default EURJPY

As I wrote yeasterday, price went at the beggining of the day higher than it closed on Friday.
I did put a tick on the chart when I thought the price would stop rising and begin a retrace. Nevertheless, EJ went even higher and made another strong bullish wave. In fact, it didn't change my previous scenario:
on hourly chart I see 5-wave bullish trend has finished and the time has come for a significant retrace, not just for the last up-move.

It seems for me that the price has already made 3 waves in its downturn, they are i-ii-iii subwaves of the upcoming bearish 1 of 3.

*I'm not really eager in my mid-term analysis, because it takes some time to be proved or failed. I will be pleased to see your view on EJ.*

Speaking about the upcoming trading, I'm selling in order to catch the 5th wave. Right now - the price is still retracing (u can see it on 5min tf). I suggest the price will go down ~119.6
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-23.02.09-15min.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-23.02.09-1h.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-23.02.09-5min.jpg  
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  #7  
Old 23-02-2009, 21:21
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Default HOT! EJ update

Price action this day is predictable, I like balanced moves, which can be foreseen :)

On 15 min chart we can see price has finished it's 5-wave bearish movement (it could be seen on higher TF as the 1st wave of the correction, which I tried to describe above).
If the pattern is proved (it means that the price won't go lower than 119.76), it's obvious the time has come for a retrace. It's likely a 3-wave pattern will be formed. On the attached chart I put price marks of Fibo retracement levels, which can be mentioned as target-points.
As the upcoming correction is related with the 1st wave of the major move, the correction can be significant.

PS. From the other side, we should take in mind strong bearish momentum which appeared on EU this day. It's hard for me to analyze today's price action on EU, so I left it till the situation is clear.

*By the way, the possibility of the upcoming correction is supported be Stochs.
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-23.02.09-15min2.jpg  
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  #8  
Old 24-02-2009, 06:18
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Default The downtrend continues

On Asian session, as I have predicted, the price rose till 121 level and went even higher. It touched a 23,6% (76,4%) Fibo level and consists from 3 mini-waves.

6 AM GMT opened with a strong bearish move, on 1h chart stochastics oscillator is almost crossed in overbought area. As the price didn't manage to go higher than yesterday (121.92) I'm awaiting a strong bearish move, which will be shown on x hour(s) timeframes as the 3rd wave.
Keep in mind: as it is 3rd wave, it should be longer than the 1st one, the initial target is 118.8-119 area, but I suppose the price would fall even further, till 117.3-118.
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-24.02.09-15min.jpg  
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  #9  
Old 24-02-2009, 06:21
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jaberize View Post
Hi Tovinces,
I like the way you laid out the information there and I do thank you.
The question is that where you expected a rebound of the 120.50 level?
My other question is that lets say it did break your lower level boundary wouldnt that expose the pair to further downside?
Still a newbie around here, and trying to learn as much as possible.
Thanks
Thanks for your interest , I really appreciate it.
Your questions are connected with mid-term analysis, I used to think that the time will show what will go if... For me it's better to catch mini-moves on low TFs.
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  #10  
Old 24-02-2009, 11:47
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Default Update on EJ

The continuation of bullish trend showed me that I failed with my initial pattern. I refreshed the hourly chart, where I expanded the 1st wave. If so, this time the 5-wave pattern is finished at last and EJ is ready to retrace on high TFs.
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-24.02.09-1h.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-24.02.09-15min2.jpg  
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  #11  
Old 24-02-2009, 13:16
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Tovinces, I can see that you have definitely thought out your plans on what you need to do.

As a trader, this is essential, and having the ability to stick with the plan.

Keep it going mate.
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  #12  
Old 24-02-2009, 21:32
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Default At the beggining of Asian session

Thanks AshFX alot, nice to read it from you ;)

Unfortunately, today I missed a HUGE uptrend on EJ, because I had been waiting for a retracement during the whole day.
I feel for another time that my foolish dream of retrace will come thuth at last... Too tired this time, wish all of you good night and profitable trading
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  #13  
Old 25-02-2009, 16:07
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Default Let's scalp on retracement

ssshh... HOT!
I attach 2 charts of EU and EJ, both on 5min TF, where you can notice completed 5-wave downtrend. Now I'll do my best to trade effectively on retracement!
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-eu-25.02.09-5min.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-25.02.09-5min.jpg  
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  #14  
Old 01-03-2009, 14:43
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Default Conclusion on the week

I'm sorry for being off these days. Last time I was trying to post here anything there was a database error.

The last week of February was tough enough for me, before it I was trading practically without any mistakes for 3 weeks. I have lost the direction of market and it pushed my account balance down.
I don't believe in destiny, but things that were going around me were really very strange. On Tuesday I lost $129 as my mobile Internet began to lag. The following day I lost another $43 when my ADSL carrier turned me off-line for an hour. What is my blame in this situation? I lost those positions because I'm scalping and due to scalping I usually make money, but do not lose it.

Nevertheless, the time is ticking, Monday is going closer. I'll try to be more attentive, more careful at the beggining of the week in order to see my predictions are proving again.
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  #15  
Old 01-03-2009, 16:33
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Default EURJPY analysis

During the last several weeks price action on EJ is strongly bullish. I made another attempt to analyze it in details.

To my mind, we are wathing for the development of a strong bullish wave 3. We can notice the small elements of this wave. Particularly, at the end of this week wave iii of 3 might have been finished. If I'm right, it includes extended wave (v) of iii of 3.
This scenario is supported with Fibo retracement - as you can see, the length of the iii wave is 161.8% comparing with the wave i of 3.
It means, that we should wait for a retracement (wave iv of 3), I expect it will consist from 3 sub-waves. Now, turn please to 1h chart in order to examine for this retrace more closely.
I suppose waves (i) of iv and (ii) of iv are completed. The following price action can be bearish to complete wave (iii) of iv. I became even more eager about the following down-move when I noticed that the price still hasn't touched the Fibo retracement levels.

Speaking about coming price action, I expect EJ going higher than 126 to finish wave 3. Then we should look for a significant retracement or even a new bearish trend (as this 3-wave pattern may be only a retrace to the previous downside move).
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-01.03.09-4h.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-01.03.09-1h.jpg  
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  #16  
Old 02-03-2009, 15:19
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EURJPY almost killed me with it's trend last week!
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  #17  
Old 02-03-2009, 16:12
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Default Monday 16 GMT update

Both EJ and EU opened on Monday with a gap to the downside, which continued with a strong bearish move during the Asian session on both pairs.
On European session price action is in consolidation area, I think we can see on 5min chart a 3-wave correction iv to the previous strong impulse movement iii. I'm still looking for another bearish move (number v), which would at last get lower than Fibo levels, which you can see at 1h chart in my previous post.
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EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-02.03.09-5min.jpg  
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  #18  
Old 02-03-2009, 20:04
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Default Good short entry on EJ

I expect a nice downside move, my first target is 121.5

Update: while I was typing this post, the price dropped for 30 pips ;)
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-scalping-signal.jpg  

Last edited by Tovinces; 02-03-2009 at 20:07.
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  #19  
Old 03-03-2009, 05:38
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tovinces View Post
I expect a nice downside move, my first target is 121.5

Update: while I was typing this post, the price dropped for 30 pips ;)

My trade did give me pips, but not as many as I expected: I closed my trade at 121.79 as the price has exactly touched Fibo res (you can see it on 1h chart).
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  #20  
Old 05-03-2009, 20:24
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Default new in Fx

Pls an new in Fx need a guite
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  #21  
Old 06-03-2009, 16:43
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Default System details

Tovinces - sorry if I may seem totally clueless here, but do you have something which explains the basics as to what indicators and timeframes you use and how you go about making your general entries and exits?

Thanks much for your attention to this. :)
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  #22  
Old 05-04-2009, 15:24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dicarlp View Post
Tovinces - sorry if I may seem totally clueless here, but do you have something which explains the basics as to what indicators and timeframes you use and how you go about making your general entries and exits?

Thanks much for your attention to this. :)
Well, I'm using TF from 1M to 1D. I'm trading exactly on low TFs (5M, 15M), and look for a general trend for next few days on H4, 1D.
The only indicator I use is Stochastics, but it's role isn't really significant.
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  #23  
Old 05-04-2009, 15:27
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Default I'm back

I was out for another month, it's a huge time, but I really had some problems with spare time and didn't manage to look for my journal attentively.
I was working in March on a bellarussian forex news resource, now I'm out of this work because salary isn't enough. That's why I'm back here again.
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Old 05-04-2009, 15:38
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Default EURJPY

The time that has gone during my last post here had proved my scenario on EJ (u can search for it in this thread).

Now the price is going to finish it's strong bullish move by forming the last, fifth wave.
If we zoom the chart (please look at 1h), we can see that 1-2 subwave formation is already done by EJ, possibly Sunday gap will be bullish in order to finish the 3rd wave.

It means that during following couple of days (I suppose till Tuesday or Wednesday) we'll see the completing of 5th wave and the beggining of a strong correction.
Attached Thumbnails
EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-5.04-4h.jpg   EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-ej-5.04-1h.jpg  
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  #25  
Old 27-04-2009, 00:12
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Thanks! Good!
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  #26  
Old 27-04-2009, 03:12
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thanks a lot.
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  #27  
Old 27-04-2009, 08:54
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Default I'm prleased...

... to read your "thanx" in my topic. By now a period "of strong correction", which I mentioned in my previous post, is continuing.
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  #28  
Old 01-05-2009, 09:22
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nice journal Tovinces - keep it going if you have time. :)
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  #29  
Old 01-05-2009, 15:46
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Just heard about this thread over in a Skype chat room...seems word is getting around. Clem, you here?

I'll read through your system a little more today, seems interesting.

Regards
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Old 11-05-2009, 21:02
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Default Back again

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTL View Post
Just heard about this thread over in a Skype chat room...seems word is getting around. Clem, you here?

I'll read through your system a little more today, seems interesting.

Regards
Thanx for your spreading word about my thread; it's really significant for me to see that this thread is worthy. it's a pity also, that I can't follow this thread permanently :(
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  #31  
Old 11-05-2009, 21:19
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Default EURUSD

The scenario for this pair is perfectly clear... I fell that I even don't need to post any comments... just look at the chart!
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EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)-eu-4h-12.05.gif  
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  #32  
Old 25-05-2009, 22:12
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How many PIPS have you all made?
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  #33  
Old 26-05-2009, 06:06
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Default

Huh, I didn't count :)
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  #34  
Old 30-11-2009, 22:35
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Thanks Tovinces
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