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  #321  
Old 12-08-2021, 16:56
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August 12. Macroeconomic indicators of Great Britain

Today was quite rich in macroeconomic publications from the UK.

According to a report by the UK's National Statistical Office (ONS), the country's GDP growth rate increased by 1% in June 2021, compared to 0.6% growth in the previous month (revised from 0.8%). Analysts had forecast a 0.8% rise in the indicator.

UK GDP in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 4.8% qoq after falling by 1.6% in the first quarter (revised from -1.5%). The statistics were in line with analysts' forecasts.

In addition, the department provided data on industrial production in Britain. Industrial production in June fell 0.7% month-on-month after rising 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%). Analysts predicted a growth of 0.3%. In annual terms, the indicator in June increased by 8.3%.

Construction output fell 1.3% in June from the previous month, after falling 0.7% in May (revised from -0.8%). Analysts had forecast an increase in June by 1.1%. In annual terms, the value of the indicator increased by 30%.

The UK trade deficit was £ 12bn in June, compared with a £ 9.6bn deficit in May (revised from £ 8.5bn). Analysts had forecast a June trade deficit of £ 9.1 billion.
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  #322  
Old 15-08-2021, 21:21
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August 13. German Ministry of Economy: The jump in inflation is temporary

The German authorities expect that the recent acceleration in inflation in the country will be temporary, as it is largely due to special factors that will disappear early next year.

According to the country's Federal Bureau of Statistics (Destatis), annual consumer price inflation in Germany has accelerated more than expected and peaked since 1993. The figure, according to final estimates, rose to 3.8% in July from 2.3% in June.

The main reason for the jump in inflation was the base effect from a temporary reduction in VAT rates in the second half of 2020. Moreover, the department expects that inflation will slow down significantly after this effect disappears. «There are now no signs of a wage-price spiral that could lead to persistent high inflation,» the Economy Ministry said.

The ministry also noted that the service sector benefits from the easing of coronavirus restrictions, while the manufacturing sector is struggling with supply chain bottlenecks.
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  #323  
Old 16-08-2021, 20:57
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August 16. US stock exchanges decline amid risk aversion

US stock exchanges are declining on Monday amid a deterioration in risk appetite after the release of morning macro statistics from China, which did not meet expectations.

In particular, industrial production in the country in July grew weaker than expected – by only 6.4% y/y instead of the expected 7.8%, and retail sales increased by only 8.5%, although analysts had predicted an increase of 11.5%. Asian stock indexes immediately showed a decline, as well as European stock exchanges.

Analysts note that economic data from China «spoiled the mood» in the markets, and weaker retail sales and industrial production raised questions about whether it is realistic to maintain the momentum of the economic recovery.

American stock exchanges are also in the red zone. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) fell to 35,414.53, the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies – to 14,652. 01, the S&P 500 broad market index – fell to 4,448. 57 points.

Tomorrow, the macrostatistics block is expected to be released directly in the United States. Data on industrial production and retail sales in July will be announced. Forecasts suggest an increase in industrial production by 0.5% m/m and a decrease in retail sales by 0.2%.
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  #324  
Old 17-08-2021, 23:22
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August 17. Oil prices are rising, despite weak demand in Asia

The price of oil is growing moderately on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday's fall to the level of $68.27 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $69.80. WTI crude oil has recovered to $67.30 per barrel.

At the last session, the pressure on the «black gold» was exerted by data from China, according to which, the daily volume of oil refining in China, the largest importer, fell to the lowest since May 2020 in July. This was due to a reduction in production by independent factories due to tighter quotas, high inventories and lower profits.

Growth in industrial production and retail sales in China also slowed sharply in July and turned out to be weaker than expected, as new coronavirus outbreaks and floods reduced business activity.

What else is going on in the oil market:

US shale oil production in September is expected to grow to 8.1 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2020.

Last week, the US called on OPEC to increase supplies to contain the rise in gasoline prices, which they consider a threat to the global economic recovery. However, neither the organization itself nor its partners recognized the need to increase oil supplies to the market beyond the planned one.
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  #325  
Old 18-08-2021, 20:54
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August 18. China intends to tighten regulation of excessively high incomes

The Chinese authorities intend to tighten control over «excessively high incomes» and to encourage those companies that will share their wealth with the public. At the same time, the ruling party called «common prosperity» its top priority.

This became known from the results of the meeting of the Central Commission on Financial and Economic Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party. Securing «common prosperity» has become a major topic of political debate in the country in recent months. This term is usually understood to mean moderate wealth for all, not just some. In particular, the government will force the wealthy Chinese to pay more taxes, which will help to resolve the resulting inequality in income.

Recall that China's largest entrepreneurs have begun to feel pressure from the authorities since the $34.4 billion IPO of Jack Ma's Ant Group was canceled last year, which would have been the largest in history.

A little later, the Chinese taxi aggregator Didi held an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, ignoring the ban of the authorities. Then Didi raised more than $4.4 billion. However, this did not pass without consequences, and two days after the IPO, the local regulator launched an investigation into Didi, demanding that it stop registering new users, and later demanded that the service be removed from the app stores.

In early July, the State Council of China announced a review of the rules for IPOs of Chinese companies abroad and increased supervision of those companies that have already conducted a listing. To regulate placements abroad, Beijing has already begun to develop changes in legislation that will close the loophole to circumvent restrictions on attracting foreign investment. Such news led to the fact that many large investment funds sold securities of Chinese companies that are listed in the United States.
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  #326  
Old 19-08-2021, 21:58
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August 19. Analysts predict the growth of Ethereum 10 thousand times

Analysts expect that after the upgrade of Ethereum to protocol 2.0, the altcoin price will rise from the current $3 thousand to $20-40 thousand.

In January 2021, experts already predicted that the cost of the cryptocurrency could exceed $10 thousand. In their opinion, the Ethereum update will allow the blockchain to approach such payment systems as Mastercard and Visa in terms of transaction volume.

Moreover, protocol 2.0 will allow the original blockchain to scale and make it more user-friendly. The main feature of the update will be the network's transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus – it will replace the Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus on which the blockchain is currently running.

The main difference between PoS and PoW is that in order to maintain the operation of the PoS network, miners who generate computing power are not needed. The efficiency of the blockchain is provided by the holders of digital coins, who receive a reward for this.

On August 5, the London update already took place on the Ethereum network, which completely changed the mechanism for calculating transaction fees. Now part of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is burned.

Experts also note that Ethereum will be able to surpass Bitcoin in capitalization only if the main cryptocurrency remains at $50 thousand, while ether will rise in price to $10 thousand.
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  #327  
Old 23-08-2021, 18:11
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August 23. Oil rises in price after seven days of falling

At the beginning of the new trading week, oil prices began to rise after several days of decline. The current price of Brent is $67.35 per barrel, WTI has risen in price to $64.70. The decline in quotations continued for seven consecutive sessions, which is the longest such period since February 2018.

The market was supported today by news that the Chinese authorities were able to contain a new wave of the spread of Covid-19: on August 23, not a single new case of coronavirus infection was detected in the country. However, the new Delta virus strain continues to pose a threat to many other countries, as well as to global oil demand.

An additional factor in the growth of oil prices, analysts say, the purchase of assets at low prices and the positive dynamics of other asset classes.

The focus of the markets this week is the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech of the chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell. Investors are interested in the question of when the American regulator intends to start curtailing the asset repurchase program. In addition, traders are looking forward to the next meeting of representatives of the OPEC + countries, scheduled for September 1.
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  #328  
Old 24-08-2021, 18:56
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August 24. Oil accelerates growth amid favorable demand forecasts

On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise thanks to upbeat demand forecasts. During the day, Brent quotes rose to $70 per barrel. The price of WTI crude oil rose to $67.25 per barrel.

Demand forecasts are improving amid the suspension of production at one of the drilling rigs in Mexico and full US approval of the coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.

On Sunday, a fire broke out on an oil platform off the coast of Mexico, as a result of which production was suspended in the amount of 421 thousand barrels per day, or about a quarter of the country's total production.

Additional support for the «black gold» is provided by the approval of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the use of the coronavirus vaccine for people over 16 years of age. Authorities hope the news will further boost vaccination adoption.

This week, oil market participants are awaiting data on fuel reserves in the United States. Analysts predict a decrease in oil and gasoline reserves, as well as an increase in distillate stocks.
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  #329  
Old 26-08-2021, 22:03
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August 26. Gold drops in anticipation of Jackson Hole symposium

Gold prices continued to decline for the third day in a row on the back of a strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields. The dollar index rose 0.1%, putting pressure on gold, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds held near a two-week high.

Investors are also awaiting tomorrow's symposium in Jackson Hole and possible signals about the curtailment of incentives during the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.

The current price of gold is $1,787 per ounce, palladium has fallen in price to $2,400 per ounce, silver has dropped to $23.67. The platinum price dropped to $987.65.

J. Powell will speak at the Fed's annual economic symposium on Friday. Market participants hope to receive more detailed information about the regulator's plans to roll back economic support measures. Many people do not realize this is possible, as the spread of the delta strain of coronavirus continues to cause concern.
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  #330  
Old 27-08-2021, 19:29
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August 27. Oil continues to rise as a storm approaches the Gulf of Mexico

At the end of the week, oil prices continue to rise amid an approaching storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Investors fear that major supply disruptions could reignite in the market as energy companies cut production in the Gulf ahead of the weekend.

As a result, Brent quotes rose to $71.50 per barrel on Friday, while WTI rose to $69 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market is provided by the expectation that OPEC + may resist the increase in production, given that the new strain of the delta coronavirus has affected oil demand.

An important factor for the further dynamics of oil will be the results of today's speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, since they will have a strong impact on the dollar rate. Market participants expect Jerome Powell to give signals regarding plans to cut the bond buying program in the 4th quarter.
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  #331  
Old 01-09-2021, 17:52
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September 1. Trump criticized cryptocurrencies again

Former US President Donald Trump in his speech on the air of Varney & Co said that investing in cryptocurrencies is a «potential disaster.» Trump also added that he is not a fan of cryptocurrencies, does not invest in bitcoins and calls for investments in the American currency.

According to the ex-president of the United States, investing in cryptocurrencies harms the dollar, since bitcoin generally looks more like a «scam», and the euphoria around this cryptocurrency weakens the dollar. Trump boldly reiterated that «the dollar should be the currency of this world.» However, as long as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain unregulated in the US financial system, they pose a threat to the US dollar and reduce its value. In addition, according to him, cryptocurrencies can be fake, and few people know what they are.

During his tenure as President of the United States, Trump has maintained both the weakness and the strength of the dollar. When the dollar weakened, it was more profitable and cheaper for foreign countries to buy American goods. Trump has also frequently accused China of deliberately undervaluing its currency, the renminbi, in order to reduce the cost of exports.

The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler shared a slightly more positive view of the crypto market, who noted that he supports digital currencies, but believes that this industry should be within the framework of laws related to money laundering, tax compliance and investor protection.
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  #332  
Old 02-09-2021, 21:56
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September 2. Why is Bitcoin unable to overcome the $ 50K level?

The calm that was observed on Wall Street at the end of August also affected the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin stabilized below $50,000 after its rally. Recall that from January to mid-April, the most popular digital currency rose to $60 thousand, subsequently falling below $30 thousand.

The reason for the inactivity of bitcoin today can be called the fact that investors are switching to other currencies on the crypto market. In particular, according to CoinShares, in August, the inflow of funds to Ethereum funds amounted to $22.4 million, and the inflow to Cardano funds (which has a blockchain platform similar to Ethereum) amounted to $18.7 million. the growing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFT). Basically, NFTs are digital assets similar to Bitcoin, with the only difference that each NFT is unique.

On the largest exchange NFT OpenSea, the volume of token trading over the past 30 days amounted to $3.5 billion, while until August, the total trading volume since its foundation in 2016 was about $1 billion.

Interest in NFT was also boosted by news that two large American companies, Visa Inc and Facebook Inc, have taken steps in this market. Visa acquired NFT under the name CryptoPunks, and Facebook said it is considering building services for NFT in its new digital wallet.
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  #333  
Old 03-09-2021, 22:01
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September 03. Oil price exceeds $73 due to hurricane disruptions

On Friday, crude oil prices rose above $ 73 a barrel. The reason for the growth was the message that it may take longer than anticipated to resolve disruptions in the operation of the energy complex in the Gulf of Mexico. About three quarters of offshore production is still not functioning.

The current Brent quotation is $ 73.15 per barrel, the price of WTI oil is $69.95.

Additional support to prices was provided by data on oil reserves in the United States. According to a report from the Ministry of Energy, over the past week, hydrocarbon reserves in the country decreased by 7.2 million barrels. The decline has been noted for the third week in a row.

Analysts note that petroleum product inventories are generally at their lowest for this period of the year since 2018, while refining capacity in Louisiana continues to slowly recover.

Moreover, yesterday, US President Joe Biden ordered Energy Secretary Jennifer Grenholm to use the strategic oil reserve to combat the surge in fuel prices in the country caused by Hurricane Ida.
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  #334  
Old 06-09-2021, 18:08
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September 06. The European market started the week with growth

On Monday, European stock indexes showed a rise on the background of an increase in industrial orders in Germany, as well as a disappointing employment report in the United States, which indicated a delay in tightening the Fed's monetary policy.

In particular, the DAX index in Germany rose to 15,900, the CAC 40 in France rose to 6,746, and the British FTSE 100 – to 7,191.

The positive sentiment was helped by the news that orders for German industrial goods unexpectedly increased by 3.4% month-on-month in July, reaching a maximum. Analysts had expected that the volume of orders would decrease by 1.0% compared to the previous month.

Also, investors are still «digesting» Friday's US employment report, which showed a much smaller increase in the number of vacancies in August than expected. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased at the lowest pace since January – by only 235 thousand, while analysts expected an increase of 750 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%, as expected. These statistics delayed the timing of the reduction of the Fed's bond-buying program, while the US central bank is assessing the economic impact of rising Covid infections.

On Thursday, it is worth paying attention to the results of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, since it is expected that the regulator will discuss the issue of reducing incentives at the meeting. Recent reports indicate that inflation in the euro area has risen to a 10-year high (by 3%). And this may lead to a slowdown in the ECB's asset purchase program.
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  #335  
Old 08-09-2021, 14:21
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September 08. Aluminum reached the 13-year highs

The price of aluminum jumped to the highest in 13 years amid traders' concerns about possible disruptions to supplies from Guinea, the main producer of bauxite, after the coup in that country. An additional factor in the price increase is the restrictions in China related to the policy of reducing CO2 emissions.

Dow Jones reports that aluminum futures for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Wednesday rose to $2.798 per ton – the highest since 2008. The October aluminum contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached $3.416 per ton during the session.

Since the beginning of the year, aluminum has risen in price by almost 41% on the LME due to high demand for the metal in the world while reducing its production in China due to carbon restrictions. Aluminum showed the second best result among the main metals in London after tin.
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  #336  
Old 13-09-2021, 17:06
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September 13. The consequences of the hurricane continue to support oil prices

The price of oil continues to rise at the beginning of a new trading week amid investor concerns about limited production in the United States due to Hurricane Ida, as well as amid expectations of improved demand.

Brent crude futures rose to $73.65 per barrel, WTI – by 0.7% to $70.47 per barrel. Both contracts touched their maximum values since September 3 during the session.

Recall that as a result of Hurricane Ida, about three quarters of production on the shelf of the Gulf of Mexico has been stopped since the end of August. This is about 1.4 million barrels per day, which is approximately equal to the entire production of Nigeria, an OPEC member. Additional support for oil prices was provided by the fact that more and more refineries in Louisiana are resuming operations, and this increased the demand for crude oil.

This week, we should pay attention to the likelihood of a revision of the forecast of oil demand by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The fact is that the increase in the incidence of coronavirus may force OPEC to revise its demand forecast for 2022 downward.

September 10. Experts predict an early recovery of the cryptocurrency market

Analysts note that Bitcoin and Ethereum can win back the fall within ten days and grow to $48500 and $3630, respectively, despite the ongoing investigation of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the problems in El Salvador. The current price of Bitcoin is $46180, Ether – $3407.

According to forecasts, by the end of next week, the price of Ether may reach $3630, and the current price can be considered quite acceptable for purchase. In this case, the stop order should be placed at the level of $3250. Analysts emphasize that significant support levels have been reached in Ethereum, from which a new growing trend will be formed further.

The decline in the cryptocurrency market observed this week was caused by several factors. Bitcoin sank by more than 10% after El Salvador declared this coin an official means of payment. This led to the fact that rating agencies lowered the country's already low credit rating, and pointed to increased risks in the insurance industry of El Salvador. Moreover, the World Bank supported the position of rating agencies and refused to provide support to El Salvador in the field of using cryptocurrencies.

Another factor of pressure on the crypto market was the SEC investigation against one of the largest decentralized crypto exchanges, Uniswap. In addition, the SEC threatened the American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase with a lawsuit due to the launch of the Lend lending service by the platform.
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Old 15-09-2021, 21:24
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September 15. Gold weakly declines amid uncertainty over Fed stimulus

The price of gold on Wednesday demonstrates a moderate decline from the level of $1.808 per ounce. The current quotation of the precious metal is $1.795.

The asset was weighed down by data on slowing inflation in the US, which increased uncertainty about the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus roll-off. It became known yesterday that consumer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in August, at the lowest rate since February. Analysts had expected the figure to rise by 0.3%.

Now the market's attention will be directed to the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will take place next week. Investors are waiting for signals regarding plans to curtail incentives.

Silver fell 0.06% to $23.81 an ounce. Palladium, on the other hand, rose 2.41% to $2,026.16 an ounce. The platinum price dropped to $943.44.
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Old 17-09-2021, 22:14
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September 16. JPMorgan: S&P 500 to grow another 6% by the end of the year

Despite the fact that some Wall Street firms are lowering their forecasts for stock market growth by the end of the year, JP Morgan, on the contrary, raised expectations for the S&P 500 from 4,600 to 4,700 (which is 6% more than the current values) and maintained a «bullish» stock forecast. The current index value is 4480. In 2022, the index value is expected to reach 5000 points.

According to the investment bank, the pace of economic growth has slowed due to concerns about a new delta strain of coronavirus, which is temporary.

JP Morgan experts explain their optimism that Covid is beginning to weaken in the world, and the upward momentum in the economy will continue in 2022, as enterprises will begin to restore depleted reserves and increase capital expenditures after historically low levels.

At the same time, other large organizations such as RBC, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs suggest that it is necessary to prepare for the correction of the S&P 500 index to 10%. And the biggest risk for the market by the end of the year may be the threat of an increase in corporate taxes. However, JP Morgan also disagrees with this – the bank's experts believe that a strong change in the income tax rate is unlikely.
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Old 20-09-2021, 22:28
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September 20. Gold is getting more expensive as a protective asset

The price of gold is rising on Monday evening against the background of sales on world markets and investors' departure from risk to safe-haven assets. The current price of gold is $1,765 per ounce.

Today, there is a sell – off on the world stock and commodity markets: the Asia-Pacific markets fell by 2%, European stock indices are declining by 2%, American ones-by 1.5%. At the same time, oil is getting cheaper by 1%.

Moreover, the rejection of risk and the subsequent withdrawal of investors into protective assets also supported gold. Market participants do not want to take risks before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.

The Fed meeting will be held on Wednesday. The regulator will publish a decision on the rate, asset repurchase, and also provide macroeconomic forecasts. Investors hope to receive signals about the future monetary policy of the regulator and about when the Federal Reserve will begin to curtail measures to support the economy.
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  #340  
Old 23-09-2021, 07:44
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September 21. Oil is getting more expensive amid several factors

On Tuesday, oil prices are showing growth, reaching a daily high at $75.17 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $74.65 per barrel, the price of WTI oil rose to the level of $70.92 (a maximum of $71.47 per barrel).

The main support for prices is provided by signals of a reduction in the supply of fuel in the United States. Utilities around the world are switching to fuel oil due to rising gas and coal prices (since production in the Gulf of Mexico has not yet fully recovered after Hurricane Ida), which will inevitably lead to a decrease in supply.

Market participants are also waiting for the results of the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, at which the regulator may announce the start dates of monetary policy tightening. And this can reduce the attractiveness of such a risky asset as oil.

In addition, the market may see an increase in demand for oil after the US announced the lifting of the travel ban for vaccinated foreign travelers in early November.

September 22. IFO lowered the forecast of German GDP growth to 2.5%

The German Economic Institute IFO today announced a reduction in the growth forecast of Europe's largest economy for 2021, as disruptions in supply chains and a shortage of intermediate goods slow down the German recovery.

The IFO now believes that German gross domestic product growth will be 2.5% in 2021, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, and 5.1% next year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.

Timo Wolmersheuser, chief economist at Ifo, noted that a confident economic recovery after the coronavirus crisis (which was initially expected in the summer) is being postponed. Industrial production is currently declining due to bottlenecks in the supply of important intermediate goods. At the same time, service providers are actively recovering from the crisis, Wolmersheuser added.
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Old 23-09-2021, 18:39
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September 23. Expert: The collapse of Evergrande will hit US stocks and real estate

Legendary investor and writer, author of the book «Rich Dad, Poor Dad» Robert Kiyosaki suggests that the default of China Evergrande Group will hit American stocks and the real estate market in the United States. The investor warns that the consequences will be disastrous for unprepared investors, and in order to survive the downturn, it is preferable to buy gold, silver and bitcoins.

Kiyosaki does not believe that Evergrande will be able to repay its loans worth about $305 billion, and the Chinese developer's real estate portfolio seems to him to be overvalued. Therefore, the collapse of the real estate market is inevitable, the investor believes, which will lead to a fall in the stock market, including in the United States.

Analysts are already comparing the possible default of Evergrande with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the global crisis in 2008.

Today, the Chinese media wrote that local authorities in China were advised to prepare for the possible collapse of the developer. This suggests that Beijing does not intend to bail out the debt-laden developer and is preparing for any economic and social consequences. Almost immediately it became known that China Estates Holdings, the second largest shareholder of Evergrande, sold its stake in Evergrande in the amount of $32 million and plans to completely exit the holding.

Kiyosaki has been expecting a market collapse for quite some time. Back in June, he wrote on his Twitter account: «The biggest bubble in world history is getting bigger. The greatest collapse in the history of the world is coming.»
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Old 27-09-2021, 21:02
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September 27. Apple and Tesla stopped production in China because of the energy crisis

The shortage of electricity in China, which arose against the background of limited coal supplies and stricter emission standards, stopped production at many factories, including at some Apple and Tesla enterprises.

According to local media, since last week, rationing for electricity consumption during peak hours has been introduced in many parts of northeast China. China, as the world's largest consumer of energy and a source of greenhouse gases, aims to bring carbon emissions to zero by 2060. And for this, in 2021, the Chinese authorities intend to reduce the energy intensity by about 3%.

It is reported that the provincial authorities have strengthened measures to limit emissions in recent months. And this decrease in energy supply affects producers in the key industrial centers of the eastern and southern coasts. About 15 Chinese companies and 30 Taiwanese companies have already announced that production was stopped due to capacity restrictions. The steel, aluminum and cement industries suffered the most.

As a result, many analysts have come to the conclusion that they should revise their forecasts for China's GDP for 2021. In particular, Nomura lowered its forecast for the third and fourth quarters to 4.7% and 3.0%, respectively, from 5.1% and 4.4%, and the annual forecast-to 7.7% from 8.2%.
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Old 28-09-2021, 15:18
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September 28. Brent rose above $80 per barrel for the first time since October 2018

On Tuesday, the price of Brent oil rose above the level of $80 per barrel for the first time in three years, reaching a maximum at $80.16. The current quote of the asset is $79.42 per barrel. WTI oil rose to $76.67 per barrel.

Prices are supported by the growing concern of traders about the reduction of raw materials stocks around the world with increased demand on the eve of winter. The shortage of natural gas in some countries also pushes the price of oil up, as the high cost of gas forces consumers to switch to using cheaper oil.

Analysts believe that this factor will increase the demand for oil by 500 thousand barrels per day in the coming winter. Moreover, it is expected that oil and natural gas prices will continue to rise in the coming months, as fundamental market factors clearly speak in support of the bullish trend.

Earlier, Goldman Sachs experts raised the forecast for the cost of Brent at the end of this year to $90 per barrel (from $80 per barrel), noting that the oil market may face a more serious deficit than previously expected.
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Old 01-10-2021, 20:55
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October 01. OPEC+ is considering options for a greater increase in production

On Monday, October 4, the leaders of OPEC+ countries will meet to discuss the oil production deal and the conditions for its possible revision. The organization is considering the possibility of increasing the volume of production more than stipulated by the current agreement. Since July, the countries adhere to the volume of 400 thousand barrels per day.

Some sources claim that the increase in production may even amount to 800 thousand barrels per day for one month, after which production volumes will return to previous indicators. The next month in which an increase may occur is November, since October oil production volumes have already been agreed at the last OPEC+ meeting.

In anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting, oil prices began to decline. The current Brent quote is $77.83 per barrel, although more recently the cost of a barrel of oil fluctuated around $80 per barrel. WTI oil prices also declined to $74.50.

September 30. The energy crisis in China has hit the industrial sector

Amid the protracted energy crisis in China, small companies have begun to switch to diesel power generators or even stop working. In this regard, the Coal Industry Association expresses concerns about stocks ahead of winter.

Analysts note that China is facing the most severe energy crisis in recent years – power outages have affected a significant part of the country. Problems with electricity supplies caused by a jump in coal prices have been going on for the second week.

As you know, coal is the main source of electricity in China, and today its cost is kept near a record level amid a shortage of supply and strong demand from industrialists. Owners of many companies report that they are suffering unprecedented losses, and the official Purchasing managers Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector has fallen below 50 points for the first time since February 2020.

The Chinese Coal Industry Association warns of a low level of coal reserves at power plants and a possible shortage in the winter months, and asks companies to make every effort to increase supplies.

September 29. Analysts suggest that Evergrande may become another «black swan»

Analysts note that, despite the fact that it is almost impossible to predict the appearance of «black swans» (since these are unexpected anomalous events), this time China and the default of the developer Evergrande may become the source of the global economic shock.

One of the most striking examples of the «black swan» is the coronavirus that came from China, the pandemic of which could not have been predicted. This time, the Celestial Empire may again become the birthplace of the next «black swan».

However, there are those who do not share this point of view. For example, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, who predicted the global economic crisis in 2008, said that he did not see any «black swans» in the short term. At the same time, the professor does not exclude the presence of some financial risks that may still cause a global crisis in the next 3-5 years.

According to Roubini, the soft monetary and fiscal policies of developed countries have led to the inflation of bubbles in financial markets. As the most obvious example, the professor cites cryptocurrencies, and the explosion of such a bubble may well cause turmoil in global markets.

There is also an opinion that the possible default of one of the largest Chinese developers Evergrande will only lead to a decline in demand for commodities and undermine the confidence of international investors in the Chinese real estate market.
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Old 04-10-2021, 19:34
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October 4. Oil reacted with growth to the results of the OPEC+ meeting

Oil rose by more than 3%, exceeding the $81 per barrel mark for the first time since 2018. The market was supported by the results of the meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial committee, at which it was decided to maintain the current parameters of the production reduction deal.

The current Brent oil quote is $81.56 per barrel, the daily maximum was marked at $81.98. WTI crude oil rose to $78.36 per barrel.

According to the current plan, OPEC+ countries will adhere to previously accepted agreements, and in November production will be increased by 400 thousand b/s. The ministers also extended the terms of compensation for the production volumes that were not reduced by the countries until the end of December 2021. Russia will be able to produce 9.913 million b/s from November.

The next meeting of the committee is scheduled for November 4. According to the forecasts of the organization, in 2022, the demand for oil will increase by 4.2 million b/d, which is higher than the previous estimate by 0.9 million b/d. Global oil demand in 2022 may reach 100.8 million b/d against 96.7 million b/d in 2021. At the same time, the supply will continue to grow.
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Old 05-10-2021, 22:56
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October 5. Bitcoin has again overcome the level of $50 thousand

The cost of bitcoin on Tuesday exceeded the $50 thousand mark for the first time since September 7. Over the past day, the price has increased by 5%, and over the week – by 18%. The current quote of the most popular cryptocurrency is $49,785.

During September, bitcoin tried several times to gain a foothold above the $50 thousand mark. On September 7, the cryptocurrency fell amid a large sale of shares of companies related to cryptocurrency and blockchain. During the month, bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a low of $40,596 dollars on September 21.

And now the «bullish» sentiment has returned to the cryptocurrency market. Analysts believe that the trend change is due to the growing investor confidence in this asset class and more flexible statements by the Fed and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Recall that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his recent speech to Congress, said that the regulator does not intend to ban cryptocurrencies.

The growth of bitcoin has pulled the rest of the crypto market along with it. Many cryptocurrencies have also risen in price today. Moreover, there was an increase in the shares of cryptocurrency companies such as Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain and Bit Digital.
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Old 06-10-2021, 15:46
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October 6. Gold is rising after the morning fall

Gold on Wednesday demonstrates high trading volatility: in the morning, the precious metal fell to $1,745 per ounce, then rose sharply to $1,761. The current quote of the asset is $1,757 per troy ounce.

The pressure on the metal is exerted by the growth of US government bond yields and the strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of the publication of an important report by the US Department of Labor on Friday.

Investors are actively buying up the dollar, which is a protective asset on a par with gold, thus hedging the risks of accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth. The rising dollar also reduces the attractiveness of gold as an investment object for holders of other currencies.

The important Nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday. At the same time, unemployment data will be published in September. Analysts predict that the number of jobs in the United States, excluding the agricultural sector, increased by 473 thousand, and unemployment fell to 5.1% (from August 5.2%).

It is worth noting that even if the employment data does not show positive dynamics and simply coincides with forecasts, the US Federal Reserve is likely to start curtailing incentives anyway. And this puts additional pressure on gold.
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Old 08-10-2021, 22:50
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October 8. September Nonfarm Payrolls – what to expect?

Today, markets are waiting for an important report on employment outside of US agriculture in September. According to forecasts, the economy has created more than 500 thousand jobs, and the unemployment rate has fallen to at least 5.1%.

Why is this report important and how can it affect the dynamics of the US dollar?

Ahead of the publication, the dollar remains relatively stable against most of the leading currencies. At the same time, government bond yields resumed growth, as the September peyroles may strengthen the determination of the US Federal Reserve to soon wind down the asset repurchase program.

However, the regulator is already quite determined: in his last statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the curtailment could begin as early as November, and a strong employment report is not a prerequisite. Thus, even a relatively weak report will only lead to a temporary drawdown of the US dollar. Moreover, a decrease in the unemployment rate to 5% can compensate for any weakness in employment statistics.

While waiting for the report analysts share their forecasts. The following arguments are in favor of strong data:

-earlier, ADP announced the creation of 568 thousand jobs;
-the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM increased from 49.0 to 50.2;
-The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has recovered;
-the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, as did the total number of people receiving benefits.

The following arguments can be made in favor of a weak report:

-the index of business activity in the service sector from ISM decreased from 53.7 to 53;
-The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to a 7-month low;
-Challenger reported a 13.8% increase in the number of layoffs (from a 24-year low).
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Old 11-10-2021, 19:42
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October 11. Brent passed the $84 level for the first time in three years

The oil market showed strong growth at the beginning of the new trading week. Brent quotes broke the level of $84 per barrel for the first time since October 2018. The current price of the asset is $83.97. WTI grade oil has also risen in price today – to $82.17 per barrel, which was the highest since October 2014.

The rise in energy prices is primarily due to the process of economic recovery from the effects of the global pandemic. Experts note that high rates of vaccination contribute to the cancellation of lockdowns and the lifting of restrictions, which further stimulates consumption and leads to an increase in demand.

At the same time, the energy crisis in Europe and Asia provided additional support to the oil market, which led to a jump in gas and coal prices and increased the attractiveness of oil as a raw material for energy production.

And another factor of price growth can be called the policy of the OPEC+ countries. Last week, the countries of the energy alliance decided to maintain the previously adopted plan to increase production by 400 thousand barrels per day.
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Old 13-10-2021, 11:09
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October 12. Europe began to save on gas

According to the Parisian consulting company Engie EnergyScan, gas consumption in Europe fell by 12% compared to the pre-pandemic level. The industrial sector has begun to reduce demand for natural gas, as record prices have made fuel too expensive for many consumers.

Germany, the Netherlands and the UK have so far reduced consumption the most, but analysts predict that this trend will continue, especially when the demand for gas for heating increases in the winter months.

There is also an opinion that high gas prices may slow down the economic recovery in Europe, as industrial consumers suffer from high fuel costs. Some enterprises were forced to temporarily cease their activities, while others were forced to significantly reduce production volumes.

Recall that the cost of gas in Europe has reached a historical record, getting almost close to the level of $2,000 per thousand cubic meters in early October. Then, after the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin about the possibility of increasing fuel supplies, gas began to become cheaper. The current price of natural gas is $1018.62.
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Old 15-10-2021, 14:43
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October 13. Gold is getting more expensive amid concerns about inflation

On Wednesday, gold shows an increase in quotations against the background of a cheaper dollar and concerns about the economic consequences of the recent sharp rise in energy prices. Then oil prices rose to the highs of several years in the area above $84 per barrel.

The current price of gold is $1,788.2 per ounce. Additional support for the precious metal rate was provided by data on inflation in the United States. According to the press release of the Ministry of Labor of the country, consumer prices in September accelerated growth to 5.4% y/y (from 5.3% in August), and on a monthly basis increased by 0.4%.

Markets fear that accelerating inflation, partly due to the global energy crisis, could hold back economic growth. And this puts pressure on the dollar and makes gold more attractive and cheaper for foreign buyers.

October 14. The EC intends to spur EU countries to switch from natural gas to biogas

By the end of this year, the European Commission intends to propose rules and measures that should facilitate the transition of EU countries from fossil natural gas to a cleaner fuel – biogas.

European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson noted that as many countries move towards decarbonization, fossil gas will definitely be replaced by renewable gas, be it biomethane or renewable hydrogen. And the establishment of certain rules that facilitate the transition process will become the basis of the December gas package.

It is reported that the European Commission intends to present the reform of the EU gas market in December. The issues of storage and security of gas supplies, along with other important topics, will become important elements of this reform.

It is worth noting that not all EU countries currently have gas storage facilities. The European Commissioner also noted that «a more integrated European approach can optimize costs and protect against price fluctuations.» The EC intends to consider such problems as simplifying access to storage facilities and ensuring their optimal use.

October 15. Oil grew to a maximum of 3 years

Oil quotes on Friday again updated a multi-year high, rising to $85.02 per barrel for the first time since October 2018. The current Brent quote is $84.80 per barrel.

Even yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy did not prevent the price increase, according to which the country's reserves of raw materials unexpectedly increased by 6.09 million barrels to 426.98 million. Analysts expected less increase – only 900 thousand barrels. Gasoline commodity reserves decreased by 1.96 million barrels (analysts expected an increase of 600 thousand barrels) and amounted to 223.11 million barrels. Commercial distillate stocks decreased by 24 thousand barrels (analysts forecast a decrease of 1.1 million barrels), to 129.31 million barrels.

Over the past month, prices for «black gold» have increased by almost 13%. The market is supported by signs that supply will be limited over the next few months, while rising gas and coal prices have led to a massive shift to petroleum products. Additional support for the market was provided by the information that Saudi Arabia rejected calls for additional OPEC+ supplies.

American WTI crude oil is also showing growth. The current price of a barrel of this grade of oil is $82.05 on Friday.
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Old 19-10-2021, 20:44
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October 19. The first Bitcoin ETF started trading in the USA

Today, the first exchange-traded fund ETF, based on bitcoin futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker BITO.

Analysts are confident that the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF fund will contribute to an increase in the number of bitcoin purchases by new individual investors, as a result of which the value of the cryptocurrency may grow to $168 thousand by the end of the year, or by 170%.

What is an ETF fund? This is an investment fund that forms portfolios of assets and issues its own shares, where each security is linked to a certain part of the fund's assets. Thus, an ETF allows you to purchase an asset without actually owning it.

In the case of bitcoin, an ETF gives investors the opportunity to access bitcoin without having to cooperate with cryptocurrency exchanges.

After the news of the approval of the bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the value of the most popular cryptocurrency again updated its maximum, reaching the area of $65 thousand.

Two factors contributed to the growth of bitcoin: the expectation that the launch of a new ETF will attract a significant inflow of funds, as well as the fact that investors who already have access to bitcoins get a new way of owning them. Which, in turn, will also contribute to more purchases.

October 18. Gold is getting cheaper amid the dollar and UST yield growth

At the beginning of the new trading week, gold quotes are showing a decline against the background of an increase in the yield of US government bonds and the strengthening of the dollar. The current spot price of the precious metal is $1,764.45 per ounce.

On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 1.6116%, and the dollar index against a basket of major world currencies rose by 0.2%, which increased the value of gold for holders of other currencies. An expensive dollar, as a rule, is more attractive as a reliable asset (due to rising inflation, increasing expectations that the Fed will begin to curtail incentives or even announce the timing of a rate hike next year).

In addition, market participants today drew attention to statistics from China, which indicated a slowdown in the country's economic growth to a minimum for the year in the third quarter. And against the backdrop of slowing economic activity in China, the dollar is expected to grow, and gold will become cheaper.

Silver fell to $23,290 today, palladium – to $2,020.50, and platinum showed a decline to $1,042.19 per ounce.
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Old 22-10-2021, 15:32
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October 21. Brent declines slightly after reaching 3-year high

Yesterday evening, Brent oil quotes reached another high at $86.09 per barrel. Today the price is moderately declining: the current quotation of the asset is $85. WTI crude oil is also showing a decline after yesterday's rise to $83.94 per barrel. The current price for a WTI barrel is $82.86.

The driver of yesterday's growth was the data from the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. In particular, the commercial reserves of hydrocarbons in the United States last week decreased by 431 thousand barrels – to 426.54 million. Gasoline reserves decreased by 5.368 million barrels and amounted to 217.74 million barrels, distillate stocks decreased by 3.913 million barrels, to 125, 39 million barrels.

Experts on average expected an increase in oil reserves by 2 million barrels, as well as a decrease in gasoline reserves by 2.2 million and distillates – by 2.4 million.

A day earlier, similar statistics were published from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The data indicated an increase in US oil inventories by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending October 15.

October 20. The expert assessed the possible problems of Europe due to high gas prices

Analysts share their gloomy forecasts regarding the future prospects of the European oil and gas market, as well as the electric power industry of the region as a whole.

Some of them are of the opinion that the industry in Europe may start working intermittently due to high prices for «blue fuel». In recent weeks, the EU has faced a rapid rise in gas prices, which leads to higher electricity prices.

Back in August, the estimated price of the futures was about $515 per thousand cubic meters, and by the end of September, the indicator had more than doubled. At the same time, on October 6, prices even updated the historical maximum at $1937. Now the price of futures in Europe is holding slightly above $1000 per thousand cubic meters.

Experts believe that the current high prices will remain so and will even be at risk of spikes. This may lead to some problems in the area of demand caused by prices. We are talking about closing or reducing the hours of operation of gas-intensive consumers in order to achieve a market balance.

However, today everything is not so tragic. The European Commission emphasizes that there is enough gas in the storage facilities for the European Union to pass the winter, and there are no risks to the stability of energy supply yet.
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Old Yesterday, 12:23
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October 26. Tesla may resume support for payments in BTC

Elon Musk, the head of the leading manufacturer of electric cars Tesla, hinted that he may soon restore support for payments in bitcoins.

In particular, in a report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the third quarter, the company noted that «it may resume the practice of trading cryptocurrencies in the future.»

Tesla has already accepted cryptocurrency as a means of payment when buying electric cars at the beginning of this year (in the period from January to March). In addition, the company invested $1.5 billion from its treasury in bitcoin during the first quarter of 2021. However, after that, Tesla stopped supporting BTC in the wake of criticism of bitcoin mining, which has a negative impact on the environment.

Then Elon Musk said that Tesla would again consider resuming support for bitcoin payments if at least half of the network's hashrate would run on renewable energy sources.

October 25. Oil rises in price on the assessment of further actions of OPEC+

On Monday, world oil prices are rising, hovering above $85 a barrel. The oil market was supported by OPEC+ comments on the prospects for production restrictions.

The current Brent quotation is $85.20 per barrel (daily maximum – $85.77), the price of WTI oil is $84.08 per barrel (during the day the asset grew to $85.20).

Today it became known that a number of OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, declared the need to maintain a cautious approach to the rate of increasing oil production.

Since May last year, the OPEC+ alliance has cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day due to a drop in oil demand. As the situation stabilized, the terms of the agreement were adjusted. So, since August 2021, the alliance has increased production by 400 thousand barrels per day per month, hoping to gradually withdraw from its obligations by the end of September 2022.

Analysts estimate the global demand for oil: now it has already reached 99 million barrels per day and will soon return to the dock level of 100 million barrels per day.
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