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  #321  
Old 12-08-2021, 16:56
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August 12. Macroeconomic indicators of Great Britain

Today was quite rich in macroeconomic publications from the UK.

According to a report by the UK's National Statistical Office (ONS), the country's GDP growth rate increased by 1% in June 2021, compared to 0.6% growth in the previous month (revised from 0.8%). Analysts had forecast a 0.8% rise in the indicator.

UK GDP in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 4.8% qoq after falling by 1.6% in the first quarter (revised from -1.5%). The statistics were in line with analysts' forecasts.

In addition, the department provided data on industrial production in Britain. Industrial production in June fell 0.7% month-on-month after rising 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%). Analysts predicted a growth of 0.3%. In annual terms, the indicator in June increased by 8.3%.

Construction output fell 1.3% in June from the previous month, after falling 0.7% in May (revised from -0.8%). Analysts had forecast an increase in June by 1.1%. In annual terms, the value of the indicator increased by 30%.

The UK trade deficit was £ 12bn in June, compared with a £ 9.6bn deficit in May (revised from £ 8.5bn). Analysts had forecast a June trade deficit of £ 9.1 billion.
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Old 15-08-2021, 21:21
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August 13. German Ministry of Economy: The jump in inflation is temporary

The German authorities expect that the recent acceleration in inflation in the country will be temporary, as it is largely due to special factors that will disappear early next year.

According to the country's Federal Bureau of Statistics (Destatis), annual consumer price inflation in Germany has accelerated more than expected and peaked since 1993. The figure, according to final estimates, rose to 3.8% in July from 2.3% in June.

The main reason for the jump in inflation was the base effect from a temporary reduction in VAT rates in the second half of 2020. Moreover, the department expects that inflation will slow down significantly after this effect disappears. «There are now no signs of a wage-price spiral that could lead to persistent high inflation,» the Economy Ministry said.

The ministry also noted that the service sector benefits from the easing of coronavirus restrictions, while the manufacturing sector is struggling with supply chain bottlenecks.
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  #323  
Old 16-08-2021, 20:57
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August 16. US stock exchanges decline amid risk aversion

US stock exchanges are declining on Monday amid a deterioration in risk appetite after the release of morning macro statistics from China, which did not meet expectations.

In particular, industrial production in the country in July grew weaker than expected – by only 6.4% y/y instead of the expected 7.8%, and retail sales increased by only 8.5%, although analysts had predicted an increase of 11.5%. Asian stock indexes immediately showed a decline, as well as European stock exchanges.

Analysts note that economic data from China «spoiled the mood» in the markets, and weaker retail sales and industrial production raised questions about whether it is realistic to maintain the momentum of the economic recovery.

American stock exchanges are also in the red zone. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) fell to 35,414.53, the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies – to 14,652. 01, the S&P 500 broad market index – fell to 4,448. 57 points.

Tomorrow, the macrostatistics block is expected to be released directly in the United States. Data on industrial production and retail sales in July will be announced. Forecasts suggest an increase in industrial production by 0.5% m/m and a decrease in retail sales by 0.2%.
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  #324  
Old 17-08-2021, 23:22
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August 17. Oil prices are rising, despite weak demand in Asia

The price of oil is growing moderately on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday's fall to the level of $68.27 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $69.80. WTI crude oil has recovered to $67.30 per barrel.

At the last session, the pressure on the «black gold» was exerted by data from China, according to which, the daily volume of oil refining in China, the largest importer, fell to the lowest since May 2020 in July. This was due to a reduction in production by independent factories due to tighter quotas, high inventories and lower profits.

Growth in industrial production and retail sales in China also slowed sharply in July and turned out to be weaker than expected, as new coronavirus outbreaks and floods reduced business activity.

What else is going on in the oil market:

US shale oil production in September is expected to grow to 8.1 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2020.

Last week, the US called on OPEC to increase supplies to contain the rise in gasoline prices, which they consider a threat to the global economic recovery. However, neither the organization itself nor its partners recognized the need to increase oil supplies to the market beyond the planned one.
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  #325  
Old 18-08-2021, 20:54
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August 18. China intends to tighten regulation of excessively high incomes

The Chinese authorities intend to tighten control over «excessively high incomes» and to encourage those companies that will share their wealth with the public. At the same time, the ruling party called «common prosperity» its top priority.

This became known from the results of the meeting of the Central Commission on Financial and Economic Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party. Securing «common prosperity» has become a major topic of political debate in the country in recent months. This term is usually understood to mean moderate wealth for all, not just some. In particular, the government will force the wealthy Chinese to pay more taxes, which will help to resolve the resulting inequality in income.

Recall that China's largest entrepreneurs have begun to feel pressure from the authorities since the $34.4 billion IPO of Jack Ma's Ant Group was canceled last year, which would have been the largest in history.

A little later, the Chinese taxi aggregator Didi held an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, ignoring the ban of the authorities. Then Didi raised more than $4.4 billion. However, this did not pass without consequences, and two days after the IPO, the local regulator launched an investigation into Didi, demanding that it stop registering new users, and later demanded that the service be removed from the app stores.

In early July, the State Council of China announced a review of the rules for IPOs of Chinese companies abroad and increased supervision of those companies that have already conducted a listing. To regulate placements abroad, Beijing has already begun to develop changes in legislation that will close the loophole to circumvent restrictions on attracting foreign investment. Such news led to the fact that many large investment funds sold securities of Chinese companies that are listed in the United States.
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  #326  
Old 19-08-2021, 21:58
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August 19. Analysts predict the growth of Ethereum 10 thousand times

Analysts expect that after the upgrade of Ethereum to protocol 2.0, the altcoin price will rise from the current $3 thousand to $20-40 thousand.

In January 2021, experts already predicted that the cost of the cryptocurrency could exceed $10 thousand. In their opinion, the Ethereum update will allow the blockchain to approach such payment systems as Mastercard and Visa in terms of transaction volume.

Moreover, protocol 2.0 will allow the original blockchain to scale and make it more user-friendly. The main feature of the update will be the network's transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus – it will replace the Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus on which the blockchain is currently running.

The main difference between PoS and PoW is that in order to maintain the operation of the PoS network, miners who generate computing power are not needed. The efficiency of the blockchain is provided by the holders of digital coins, who receive a reward for this.

On August 5, the London update already took place on the Ethereum network, which completely changed the mechanism for calculating transaction fees. Now part of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is burned.

Experts also note that Ethereum will be able to surpass Bitcoin in capitalization only if the main cryptocurrency remains at $50 thousand, while ether will rise in price to $10 thousand.
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  #327  
Old 23-08-2021, 18:11
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August 23. Oil rises in price after seven days of falling

At the beginning of the new trading week, oil prices began to rise after several days of decline. The current price of Brent is $67.35 per barrel, WTI has risen in price to $64.70. The decline in quotations continued for seven consecutive sessions, which is the longest such period since February 2018.

The market was supported today by news that the Chinese authorities were able to contain a new wave of the spread of Covid-19: on August 23, not a single new case of coronavirus infection was detected in the country. However, the new Delta virus strain continues to pose a threat to many other countries, as well as to global oil demand.

An additional factor in the growth of oil prices, analysts say, the purchase of assets at low prices and the positive dynamics of other asset classes.

The focus of the markets this week is the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech of the chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell. Investors are interested in the question of when the American regulator intends to start curtailing the asset repurchase program. In addition, traders are looking forward to the next meeting of representatives of the OPEC + countries, scheduled for September 1.
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  #328  
Old 24-08-2021, 18:56
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August 24. Oil accelerates growth amid favorable demand forecasts

On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise thanks to upbeat demand forecasts. During the day, Brent quotes rose to $70 per barrel. The price of WTI crude oil rose to $67.25 per barrel.

Demand forecasts are improving amid the suspension of production at one of the drilling rigs in Mexico and full US approval of the coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.

On Sunday, a fire broke out on an oil platform off the coast of Mexico, as a result of which production was suspended in the amount of 421 thousand barrels per day, or about a quarter of the country's total production.

Additional support for the «black gold» is provided by the approval of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the use of the coronavirus vaccine for people over 16 years of age. Authorities hope the news will further boost vaccination adoption.

This week, oil market participants are awaiting data on fuel reserves in the United States. Analysts predict a decrease in oil and gasoline reserves, as well as an increase in distillate stocks.
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  #329  
Old 26-08-2021, 22:03
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August 26. Gold drops in anticipation of Jackson Hole symposium

Gold prices continued to decline for the third day in a row on the back of a strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields. The dollar index rose 0.1%, putting pressure on gold, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds held near a two-week high.

Investors are also awaiting tomorrow's symposium in Jackson Hole and possible signals about the curtailment of incentives during the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.

The current price of gold is $1,787 per ounce, palladium has fallen in price to $2,400 per ounce, silver has dropped to $23.67. The platinum price dropped to $987.65.

J. Powell will speak at the Fed's annual economic symposium on Friday. Market participants hope to receive more detailed information about the regulator's plans to roll back economic support measures. Many people do not realize this is possible, as the spread of the delta strain of coronavirus continues to cause concern.
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  #330  
Old 27-08-2021, 19:29
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August 27. Oil continues to rise as a storm approaches the Gulf of Mexico

At the end of the week, oil prices continue to rise amid an approaching storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Investors fear that major supply disruptions could reignite in the market as energy companies cut production in the Gulf ahead of the weekend.

As a result, Brent quotes rose to $71.50 per barrel on Friday, while WTI rose to $69 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market is provided by the expectation that OPEC + may resist the increase in production, given that the new strain of the delta coronavirus has affected oil demand.

An important factor for the further dynamics of oil will be the results of today's speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, since they will have a strong impact on the dollar rate. Market participants expect Jerome Powell to give signals regarding plans to cut the bond buying program in the 4th quarter.
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  #331  
Old 01-09-2021, 17:52
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September 1. Trump criticized cryptocurrencies again

Former US President Donald Trump in his speech on the air of Varney & Co said that investing in cryptocurrencies is a «potential disaster.» Trump also added that he is not a fan of cryptocurrencies, does not invest in bitcoins and calls for investments in the American currency.

According to the ex-president of the United States, investing in cryptocurrencies harms the dollar, since bitcoin generally looks more like a «scam», and the euphoria around this cryptocurrency weakens the dollar. Trump boldly reiterated that «the dollar should be the currency of this world.» However, as long as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain unregulated in the US financial system, they pose a threat to the US dollar and reduce its value. In addition, according to him, cryptocurrencies can be fake, and few people know what they are.

During his tenure as President of the United States, Trump has maintained both the weakness and the strength of the dollar. When the dollar weakened, it was more profitable and cheaper for foreign countries to buy American goods. Trump has also frequently accused China of deliberately undervaluing its currency, the renminbi, in order to reduce the cost of exports.

The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler shared a slightly more positive view of the crypto market, who noted that he supports digital currencies, but believes that this industry should be within the framework of laws related to money laundering, tax compliance and investor protection.
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  #332  
Old 02-09-2021, 21:56
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September 2. Why is Bitcoin unable to overcome the $ 50K level?

The calm that was observed on Wall Street at the end of August also affected the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin stabilized below $50,000 after its rally. Recall that from January to mid-April, the most popular digital currency rose to $60 thousand, subsequently falling below $30 thousand.

The reason for the inactivity of bitcoin today can be called the fact that investors are switching to other currencies on the crypto market. In particular, according to CoinShares, in August, the inflow of funds to Ethereum funds amounted to $22.4 million, and the inflow to Cardano funds (which has a blockchain platform similar to Ethereum) amounted to $18.7 million. the growing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFT). Basically, NFTs are digital assets similar to Bitcoin, with the only difference that each NFT is unique.

On the largest exchange NFT OpenSea, the volume of token trading over the past 30 days amounted to $3.5 billion, while until August, the total trading volume since its foundation in 2016 was about $1 billion.

Interest in NFT was also boosted by news that two large American companies, Visa Inc and Facebook Inc, have taken steps in this market. Visa acquired NFT under the name CryptoPunks, and Facebook said it is considering building services for NFT in its new digital wallet.
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  #333  
Old 03-09-2021, 22:01
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September 03. Oil price exceeds $73 due to hurricane disruptions

On Friday, crude oil prices rose above $ 73 a barrel. The reason for the growth was the message that it may take longer than anticipated to resolve disruptions in the operation of the energy complex in the Gulf of Mexico. About three quarters of offshore production is still not functioning.

The current Brent quotation is $ 73.15 per barrel, the price of WTI oil is $69.95.

Additional support to prices was provided by data on oil reserves in the United States. According to a report from the Ministry of Energy, over the past week, hydrocarbon reserves in the country decreased by 7.2 million barrels. The decline has been noted for the third week in a row.

Analysts note that petroleum product inventories are generally at their lowest for this period of the year since 2018, while refining capacity in Louisiana continues to slowly recover.

Moreover, yesterday, US President Joe Biden ordered Energy Secretary Jennifer Grenholm to use the strategic oil reserve to combat the surge in fuel prices in the country caused by Hurricane Ida.
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  #334  
Old 06-09-2021, 18:08
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September 06. The European market started the week with growth

On Monday, European stock indexes showed a rise on the background of an increase in industrial orders in Germany, as well as a disappointing employment report in the United States, which indicated a delay in tightening the Fed's monetary policy.

In particular, the DAX index in Germany rose to 15,900, the CAC 40 in France rose to 6,746, and the British FTSE 100 – to 7,191.

The positive sentiment was helped by the news that orders for German industrial goods unexpectedly increased by 3.4% month-on-month in July, reaching a maximum. Analysts had expected that the volume of orders would decrease by 1.0% compared to the previous month.

Also, investors are still «digesting» Friday's US employment report, which showed a much smaller increase in the number of vacancies in August than expected. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased at the lowest pace since January – by only 235 thousand, while analysts expected an increase of 750 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%, as expected. These statistics delayed the timing of the reduction of the Fed's bond-buying program, while the US central bank is assessing the economic impact of rising Covid infections.

On Thursday, it is worth paying attention to the results of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, since it is expected that the regulator will discuss the issue of reducing incentives at the meeting. Recent reports indicate that inflation in the euro area has risen to a 10-year high (by 3%). And this may lead to a slowdown in the ECB's asset purchase program.
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Old 08-09-2021, 14:21
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September 08. Aluminum reached the 13-year highs

The price of aluminum jumped to the highest in 13 years amid traders' concerns about possible disruptions to supplies from Guinea, the main producer of bauxite, after the coup in that country. An additional factor in the price increase is the restrictions in China related to the policy of reducing CO2 emissions.

Dow Jones reports that aluminum futures for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Wednesday rose to $2.798 per ton – the highest since 2008. The October aluminum contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached $3.416 per ton during the session.

Since the beginning of the year, aluminum has risen in price by almost 41% on the LME due to high demand for the metal in the world while reducing its production in China due to carbon restrictions. Aluminum showed the second best result among the main metals in London after tin.
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  #336  
Old 13-09-2021, 17:06
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September 13. The consequences of the hurricane continue to support oil prices

The price of oil continues to rise at the beginning of a new trading week amid investor concerns about limited production in the United States due to Hurricane Ida, as well as amid expectations of improved demand.

Brent crude futures rose to $73.65 per barrel, WTI – by 0.7% to $70.47 per barrel. Both contracts touched their maximum values since September 3 during the session.

Recall that as a result of Hurricane Ida, about three quarters of production on the shelf of the Gulf of Mexico has been stopped since the end of August. This is about 1.4 million barrels per day, which is approximately equal to the entire production of Nigeria, an OPEC member. Additional support for oil prices was provided by the fact that more and more refineries in Louisiana are resuming operations, and this increased the demand for crude oil.

This week, we should pay attention to the likelihood of a revision of the forecast of oil demand by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The fact is that the increase in the incidence of coronavirus may force OPEC to revise its demand forecast for 2022 downward.

September 10. Experts predict an early recovery of the cryptocurrency market

Analysts note that Bitcoin and Ethereum can win back the fall within ten days and grow to $48500 and $3630, respectively, despite the ongoing investigation of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the problems in El Salvador. The current price of Bitcoin is $46180, Ether – $3407.

According to forecasts, by the end of next week, the price of Ether may reach $3630, and the current price can be considered quite acceptable for purchase. In this case, the stop order should be placed at the level of $3250. Analysts emphasize that significant support levels have been reached in Ethereum, from which a new growing trend will be formed further.

The decline in the cryptocurrency market observed this week was caused by several factors. Bitcoin sank by more than 10% after El Salvador declared this coin an official means of payment. This led to the fact that rating agencies lowered the country's already low credit rating, and pointed to increased risks in the insurance industry of El Salvador. Moreover, the World Bank supported the position of rating agencies and refused to provide support to El Salvador in the field of using cryptocurrencies.

Another factor of pressure on the crypto market was the SEC investigation against one of the largest decentralized crypto exchanges, Uniswap. In addition, the SEC threatened the American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase with a lawsuit due to the launch of the Lend lending service by the platform.
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Old 15-09-2021, 21:24
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September 15. Gold weakly declines amid uncertainty over Fed stimulus

The price of gold on Wednesday demonstrates a moderate decline from the level of $1.808 per ounce. The current quotation of the precious metal is $1.795.

The asset was weighed down by data on slowing inflation in the US, which increased uncertainty about the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus roll-off. It became known yesterday that consumer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in August, at the lowest rate since February. Analysts had expected the figure to rise by 0.3%.

Now the market's attention will be directed to the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will take place next week. Investors are waiting for signals regarding plans to curtail incentives.

Silver fell 0.06% to $23.81 an ounce. Palladium, on the other hand, rose 2.41% to $2,026.16 an ounce. The platinum price dropped to $943.44.
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Old 17-09-2021, 22:14
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September 16. JPMorgan: S&P 500 to grow another 6% by the end of the year

Despite the fact that some Wall Street firms are lowering their forecasts for stock market growth by the end of the year, JP Morgan, on the contrary, raised expectations for the S&P 500 from 4,600 to 4,700 (which is 6% more than the current values) and maintained a «bullish» stock forecast. The current index value is 4480. In 2022, the index value is expected to reach 5000 points.

According to the investment bank, the pace of economic growth has slowed due to concerns about a new delta strain of coronavirus, which is temporary.

JP Morgan experts explain their optimism that Covid is beginning to weaken in the world, and the upward momentum in the economy will continue in 2022, as enterprises will begin to restore depleted reserves and increase capital expenditures after historically low levels.

At the same time, other large organizations such as RBC, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs suggest that it is necessary to prepare for the correction of the S&P 500 index to 10%. And the biggest risk for the market by the end of the year may be the threat of an increase in corporate taxes. However, JP Morgan also disagrees with this – the bank's experts believe that a strong change in the income tax rate is unlikely.
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Old 20-09-2021, 22:28
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September 20. Gold is getting more expensive as a protective asset

The price of gold is rising on Monday evening against the background of sales on world markets and investors' departure from risk to safe-haven assets. The current price of gold is $1,765 per ounce.

Today, there is a sell – off on the world stock and commodity markets: the Asia-Pacific markets fell by 2%, European stock indices are declining by 2%, American ones-by 1.5%. At the same time, oil is getting cheaper by 1%.

Moreover, the rejection of risk and the subsequent withdrawal of investors into protective assets also supported gold. Market participants do not want to take risks before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.

The Fed meeting will be held on Wednesday. The regulator will publish a decision on the rate, asset repurchase, and also provide macroeconomic forecasts. Investors hope to receive signals about the future monetary policy of the regulator and about when the Federal Reserve will begin to curtail measures to support the economy.
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Old Yesterday, 07:44
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September 21. Oil is getting more expensive amid several factors

On Tuesday, oil prices are showing growth, reaching a daily high at $75.17 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $74.65 per barrel, the price of WTI oil rose to the level of $70.92 (a maximum of $71.47 per barrel).

The main support for prices is provided by signals of a reduction in the supply of fuel in the United States. Utilities around the world are switching to fuel oil due to rising gas and coal prices (since production in the Gulf of Mexico has not yet fully recovered after Hurricane Ida), which will inevitably lead to a decrease in supply.

Market participants are also waiting for the results of the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, at which the regulator may announce the start dates of monetary policy tightening. And this can reduce the attractiveness of such a risky asset as oil.

In addition, the market may see an increase in demand for oil after the US announced the lifting of the travel ban for vaccinated foreign travelers in early November.

September 22. IFO lowered the forecast of German GDP growth to 2.5%

The German Economic Institute IFO today announced a reduction in the growth forecast of Europe's largest economy for 2021, as disruptions in supply chains and a shortage of intermediate goods slow down the German recovery.

The IFO now believes that German gross domestic product growth will be 2.5% in 2021, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, and 5.1% next year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.

Timo Wolmersheuser, chief economist at Ifo, noted that a confident economic recovery after the coronavirus crisis (which was initially expected in the summer) is being postponed. Industrial production is currently declining due to bottlenecks in the supply of important intermediate goods. At the same time, service providers are actively recovering from the crisis, Wolmersheuser added.
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Old Yesterday, 18:39
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September 23. Expert: The collapse of Evergrande will hit US stocks and real estate

Legendary investor and writer, author of the book «Rich Dad, Poor Dad» Robert Kiyosaki suggests that the default of China Evergrande Group will hit American stocks and the real estate market in the United States. The investor warns that the consequences will be disastrous for unprepared investors, and in order to survive the downturn, it is preferable to buy gold, silver and bitcoins.

Kiyosaki does not believe that Evergrande will be able to repay its loans worth about $305 billion, and the Chinese developer's real estate portfolio seems to him to be overvalued. Therefore, the collapse of the real estate market is inevitable, the investor believes, which will lead to a fall in the stock market, including in the United States.

Analysts are already comparing the possible default of Evergrande with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the global crisis in 2008.

Today, the Chinese media wrote that local authorities in China were advised to prepare for the possible collapse of the developer. This suggests that Beijing does not intend to bail out the debt-laden developer and is preparing for any economic and social consequences. Almost immediately it became known that China Estates Holdings, the second largest shareholder of Evergrande, sold its stake in Evergrande in the amount of $32 million and plans to completely exit the holding.

Kiyosaki has been expecting a market collapse for quite some time. Back in June, he wrote on his Twitter account: «The biggest bubble in world history is getting bigger. The greatest collapse in the history of the world is coming.»
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