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KostiaFM 25-02-2021 20:39

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February 25. US stock exchanges decline after the release of statistics on the GDP

US stock exchanges are falling on Thursday after the release of statistics on GDP and the labor market.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 0.14% to 31,918.08 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 0.25% to 13564.49 points, and the S&P 500 broad market index – by 0. 22%, up to 3916.6 points.

Investors drew attention to the statistics on the US economy: in the IV quarter, the country's GDP, according to the second estimate, grew by 4.1% on an annualized basis (if the GDP grew at the same pace for four quarters in a row). The indicator turned out to be higher than the first estimate of growth by 4%, but worse than the forecast of growth from analysts at 4.2% in annual terms.

At the same time, the US Department of Commerce kept the estimate of the fall in GDP in 2020 at 3.5%.

Labor market statistics turned out to be better than expected: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to a minimum since November 2020, and the rate of decline in the indicator became the fastest since August of the same year. The number of such applications decreased by 111 thousand, to 730 thousand.

KostiaFM 26-02-2021 21:43

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February 26. Germany has announced four options for the future «Nord Stream 2»

The German authorities have proposed four options for the future of the «Nord Stream 2» project in order to come to a compromise with the United States and «end the grueling showdown» around the pipeline.

The first course of action proposed by Berlin is the US refusal from threats of sanctions if the «danger» for Ukraine is removed or at least reduced. This option provides for the possibility of stopping gas supply in the event that Russia stops transportation through the territory of Ukraine.

Another option is to suspend the construction of the pipeline for the purpose of negotiations. The FRG authorities note that the United States can create a special commission with the participation of Europeans, whose task will be to develop specific solutions.

Germany sees the third decision to provide investment assistance to Ukraine, which will soften Washington's position. And the fourth scenario is the continuation of the construction of the gas pipeline in spite of all countermeasures to the project.

Let us remind you that «Nord Stream 2» is a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Now the facility is 95% ready, and the cost of its construction is estimated at $11 billion.

KostiaFM 02-03-2021 07:23

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March 01. Cardano takes the lead in cryptocurrency rally

Cryptocurrency Cardano last week renewed all-time highs and came in third after Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of market capitalization, which now exceeds $46.5 million.

Cardano's value has risen 2000% over the past year, gaining 300% in the last month alone. The digital currency has unexpectedly left behind major competitors, including Polkadot (DOT) and Ripple (XRP).

Experts note that the rise in price of the digital currency was facilitated by the fact that the project of its developers plans to roll out the Goguen update this week. The update will implement important changes that will help the platform enter the decentralized finance segment.

«Cardano is a rising star in the cryptocurrency sector,» said Nigel Greene, CEO of deVere Financial Advisory Group.

KostiaFM 02-03-2021 21:38

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March 02. China's financial regulator announced a «bubble» in global stock markets

The China Banking and Insurance Supervision and Control Committee (CBIRC) said the rally in the US and other stock markets resembles a «bubble» and will eventually move to a correction. The head of the committee, Guo Shuqing, also noted that the American and European markets are moving in the opposite direction compared to the economy.

CBIRC comments did not support sentiment on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% on Tuesday. Moreover, experts believe that such statements may create even greater concern about the further tightening of China's monetary policy.

The regulator also announced a «bubble» in the real estate market in China itself. This is because many people buy houses for investment or speculative purposes, which is «very dangerous.»

The economic recovery, a surge in lending and fears of missing out on buying a home have boosted demand for real estate in major Chinese cities. As a result, the authorities have retaliated, including a new mortgage lending facility. Despite this, housing prices in the secondary market, which is less regulated by the state, jumped in January to a maximum in a year and a half.

KostiaFM 03-03-2021 18:58

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March 3. Gold falls in price on lower demand for «safe-haven» assets

On Wednesday, the price of gold declines against the background of investors leaving defensive assets in the light of the prospects for an improvement in the economic situation in the world. In addition, the high yield on US government bonds and the expensive dollar continue to put pressure on gold quotes.

The current price of the April futures for precious metals on the New York Comex exchange is $1,710.40 per troy ounce.

Analysts note that investors are more inclined to acquire risky assets amid general optimism in the markets regarding the prospects for the development of the global economy. In addition, the continuation of mass vaccinations in countries around the world gives hope for a speedy recovery.

Also, traders are waiting for additional support for the economy from the US authorities. As you remember, last Saturday the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved a stimulus package in the amount of 1.9 trillion dollars. Now the relevant bill has yet to be passed by the Senate and signed by President Joe Biden.

KostiaFM 05-03-2021 11:14

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04.03. Construction of Nord Stream 2 postponed until September

The construction of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 was again postponed, this time for six months. Now, work on laying two lines of the gas pipeline in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark is going to be completed in September 2021, although the deadline was previously planned for the end of April.

Initially, the project was supposed to be completed at the end of 2019, however, the construction of the pipeline was prevented by sanctions from the United States, due to which European companies began to leave the project. Washington is hindering the construction of the facility, as American liquefied natural gas competes with Russian pipeline fuel for the European market.

As of early March, the pipeline is 98% ready, and its cost is estimated at $11 billion. Russia does not abandon plans to complete the construction of the facility, however, certification and insurance of the route still remain unresolved problems.

Also today it became known that the financial partner of the project, the German concern Uniper, announced that it would no longer finance the project. It is known that as of November, Uniper has allocated 700 million euros to finance the construction of the gas pipeline. Earlier, the completion of financing was also announced by the German oil and gas company Wintershall Dea.

KostiaFM 07-03-2021 21:53

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March 5. OPEC+ ministerial meeting outcomes

On Friday, Brent crude rose to $68.60 for the first time since January 2020. The prices were supported by the results of the meeting of the ministers of the OPEC+ countries, according to which the organization unexpectedly refused to increase oil production in April by 500 thousand barrels per day.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia extended its own voluntary restrictions of 1 million bpd for another month, promising to return these volumes to the market when it sees fit.

Russia and Kazakhstan again received the right to increase production from April by 130 thousand and 20 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

The results of the OPEC+ meeting indicate that the participants in the energy pact have chosen a cautious approach to assessing the recovery in demand, given the still remaining concerns about the pace of global economic growth.

KostiaFM 08-03-2021 22:17

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March 8. US stock markets open in the red

Investors are encouraged today that the Senate passed President Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill this weekend. Minor amendments were made to the bill, reducing unemployment benefits from $ 400 to $ 300. He must now return to the House of Representatives, which will approve the revised version and finally unlock the funds.

The approval of the bill to stimulate the economy further contributed to the growth of US Treasury bonds, which, in turn, negatively affects the stock indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones all started trading in the red today due to low investor interest in the stock at the moment.

Stocks in China are also declining in light of last week's announcement of a lower-than-expected growth outlook. This signals to the markets that the government may withdraw some stimulus from its economy to offset the growth in borrowing.

Oil prices continued to rise after OPEC + agreed not to increase its quotas in April last week. In addition, there has been an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, although the country has reported that production is unlikely to be affected. Nevertheless, oil managed to rise above $ 70 a barrel.

KostiaFM 09-03-2021 16:51

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March, 09. Bitcoin capitalization exceeded $1 trillion again

In the morning trading session on Tuesday, bitcoin rose to $54348.57, reaching a 24-hour high. At the same time, the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency rose again above the $ trillion level.

After that, bitcoin lost some of its achievements and the current quotation of the digital asset is $54185.

Note that recently, bitcoin has experienced a dizzying rally: since the beginning of 2021, it has grown by more than 80%, and over the past 12 months, it has risen by more than 570%. It was also at an all-time high of $58,332.36.

There are several reasons behind Bitcoin's rise, including the investment in this digital currency by large investors and significant purchases by corporations such as Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy Incorporated.

KostiaFM 11-03-2021 20:12

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March 11. ECB kept monetary policy unchanged

A meeting of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) took place today, following which monetary policy remained unchanged. The base interest rate on loans was kept at zero.

The rate on deposits also remained at the same level – minus 0.5%, the rate on short-term loans from the ECB – at 0.25%. The regulator expects key interest rates to remain at or below current levels until the inflation forecast steadily approaches below 2%.

In addition, the central bank will continue the bond buyback program (PEPP) in connection with the pandemic totaling € 1.85 trillion. The reinvestment of the main payments on the securities purchased under the PEPP is planned to continue until at least the end of 2023.

The regulator will also continue the program of asset repurchase (APP) in the amount of € 20 billion monthly, as well as reinvestment of payments on securities purchased under this program.

The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on April 22.

KostiaFM 13-03-2021 10:10

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March 12. Biden signs incentive package act

US President Joe Biden signed into law a $1.9 trillion stimulus package a day earlier than expected. The economic stimulus provides direct one-time payments of $1,400 for most Americans, as well as tax breaks for millions of families.

The Democratic Party is now planning a two-week campaign to keep voters' memory of this decision until the next election. By signing the bill, Biden promised that the money would help rebuild America's economy and support workers and the middle class.

Also, the new head of the White House said that he intends to speed up the process of national vaccination and return to normal life by the 4th of July holiday. Such statements have strengthened confidence in the recovery of the US economy this year, which has led to higher yields on the dollar and US bonds.

In particular, the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds returned to 1.61%, the highest since February last year. The dollar index rose 0.6% to 91.93.

KostiaFM 15-03-2021 15:26

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March 15. Oil hits $70 maximum on strong data from China

Brent crude hit a high of $70 per barrel on Monday, boosted by data from China, which indicated a recovery in the economy, improving the outlook for demand from the world's largest oil importer. Activity in China's industrial and retail sectors surged in the first two months of 2021, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Additional support for the quotes of «black gold» was provided by the OPEC report published last Thursday, according to which world oil demand in 2021 will reach 96.3 million barrels per day. Now experts of the oil cartel expect an increase in world oil demand by 5.9 million barrels per day.

On the side of buyers, there is also general market optimism caused by new fiscal stimulus measures, worth $1.9 trillion, in the US, which were finally agreed at the end of last week. Market participants believe that the injection of such huge money into the economy will significantly accelerate the recovery of economic activity, which will have a favorable effect on the demand for energy resources.

However, Brent failed to gain a foothold in the area of ​​highs. The current quotation of the commodity asset is $ 68.75 per barrel.

KostiaFM 17-03-2021 18:50

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March 16. British currency falls on fears over AstraZeneca vaccine

The pound sterling declines against the euro and the dollar on Tuesday amid news of the suspension of coronavirus vaccinations developed by AstraZeneca in Germany, Italy and France. Previously, this vaccine has already been abandoned by Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and a number of other countries.

Germany, France and Italy announced on Monday that they will suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine against COVID-19 after cases (including fatal) cases of thrombosis have been recorded in those vaccinated. At the same time, the World Health Organization (WHO) says that the connection between the vaccine and complications has not been proven and there is no reason for panic.

Experts note that if fears about the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine are confirmed, it could jeopardize the rapid vaccination program for the UK population.

KostiaFM 22-03-2021 19:04

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March 22. German economy falls due to antivirus restrictions

The Bundesbank said today that the German economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter of this year, as due to pandemic restrictions the service sector has suffered significantly and the development of the construction industry has slowed down. Experts point out that a hike in sales tax, which was temporarily cut last year, likely contributed to a significant reduction in construction volumes in January.

In its monthly report, the German central bank did not update its forecast for the spring economic recovery and dropped references to the coronavirus vaccination campaign, which was undermined by news of possible side effects. The authorities had previously expected the economy to recover in the spring thanks to a decrease in the incidence of coronavirus and mass vaccinations.

The regulator also noted that measures to contain the pandemic in the current quarter are on average more stringent than in the previous one, so a stronger decline in economic production can be expected. Industrial production also declined in the first month of the year, but orders were high and merchandise exports increased.

KostiaFM 23-03-2021 21:03

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March 23. Bitcoin can rise to $300 thousand, but then – fall by 80-90%

Co-founder and former CEO of BTCC crypto exchange Bobby Lee said that today bitcoin is in a «bull market» and may rise to $300 thousand. At the same time, he warned that the «bubble» could burst after reaching a peak, and the cryptocurrency would fall within the so-called «bitcoin winter», which can last for years.

Lee also noted that Bitcoin bull market cycles occur every four years, and this summer, the value of the digital currency could easily rise to the level of $ 100,000 or more. Two of these «bullish market cycles» have already occurred over the past eight years: in 2017, when the price of bitcoin surged from $ 1,000 to almost $ 20,000 in a year, and in 2021, when the price of cryptocurrency sharply reached $ 60,000.

The economist warned that the bubble could burst when the price of bitcoin declines. In the crypto industry, this is called bitcoin winter, and it can last anywhere from two to three years. Moreover, the value of a currency may fall by 80-90% of its value at its historical peak.

KostiaFM 25-03-2021 12:03

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March 24. Suez Canal blocked: 12% of world trade in question

One of the largest container ships in the world, owned by the Taiwanese company Evergreen Marine, ran aground in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic on the most important trade route connecting Europe, Asia and the United States to the Middle East.

Experts note that about 12% of world trade passes through this channel, 30% of the world's container ships' capacity per year, and about 600 thousand barrels of crude oil from the Middle East to Europe and the United States every day. Moreover, the Suez Canal remains the main source of income for Egypt.

At the moment it became known that at the entrance to the canal tankers with oil and liquefied natural gas, container ships with various goods and dry cargo vessels are accumulating. If congestion continues until the end of this week, it will affect the transit of 15 LNG tankers and disrupt the entire shipping schedule. Unblocking of the channel is expected to take several days at best.

KostiaFM 25-03-2021 22:54

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March 25. The backlog of vaccinations in the EU was estimated at 123 billion euros

Economists believe that the lag of the EU countries from the approved vaccination calendar against coronavirus could cost the European economy about 123 billion euros. The EU is currently seven weeks behind schedule.

It is noted that by the end of summer, the EU countries should vaccinate 70% of the population. And in order to achieve this, vaccination must be significantly accelerated. However, problems with the supply of vaccines from AstraZeneca and the refusal of residents of many European countries to vaccinate with this particular drug call into question the success of this campaign.

According to experts, France is also seven weeks behind the vaccination schedule, and each week of lag could cost the country's economy 3 billion euros.

The current difficulties with vaccination will be discussed at the summit on Thursday by the heads of state and government of the EU countries. It is assumed that politicians will discuss measures to increase vaccine production and accelerate vaccination of the population.

KostiaFM 28-03-2021 21:58

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March 26. Experts believe that cars will rise in price because of the Suez Canal blocking

Experts believe that blocking the movement of ships through the Suez Canal will inevitably lead to higher prices for cars.

It is noted that the incident involving the container ship Evergreen mainly affected the European Union. For three days, a queue of more than 200 ships gathered near the blocked canal. Another part of the tankers headed by a roundabout route around Africa – and this will move the delivery dates by 15 days.

Analysts also note that the situation in the Suez Canal may affect the cost of some industrial goods from Europe, including automotive products. The fact is that the increase in costs due to the additional time spent in chartering ships is approximately $8,000 for each container from China. Although this is a small amount, the main problem is timing.

Currently, the European markets are already experiencing assembly problems due to the lack of chips. And 15 days of delay can lead to an increase in the cost of cars by 1-2%.

KostiaFM 30-03-2021 22:52

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March 30. Consumer Confidence in the US in March rose to its highest in a year

According to the analyst firm Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in the US in March rose to 109.7 points from the revised February index of 90.4 points. Analysts had forecast growth in the indicator to only 96.9 points from the initial February value of 91.3 points. In addition, the index has reached its highest value in a year.

The index of economic expectations in March jumped to 109.6 points from the revised February index of 90.9 points. The index of economic conditions in March also rose to 110 points from the revised value of 89.6 points in February (originally the indicator was 92 points).

The US dollar reacted to such statistics with even greater growth. For example, the exchange rate of the main currency pair EUR/USD is 1.1700, which is the lowest value since November last year.

KostiaFM 01-04-2021 15:03

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March 31. ECB sees opportunity to launch digital euro by 2025

The head of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde said that the regulator could launch the digital euro around the middle of this decade, in 2025.

In her interview, Lagarde noted that the main task of the ECB is to ensure the correct approach to the process of creating a digital European currency, which can take several years. «This is a technical project and also a fundamental change. We have to make sure we don't break the system, but we will improve it», Lagarde said.

The ECB intends to publish an analysis of the 8,000 responses received in a public consultation on a potential digital currency launch. Further, the analysis will be sent to the European Parliament, and then – to the ECB Governing Council, which by the middle of this year will decide whether to continue this experimental work. The final decision on whether to introduce digital currency at all will be made six months or a year after that.

The European Central Bank has said it is considering issuing a digital euro to prepare for the digital age. The European Commission, in turn, noted that the digital euro can support the digitalization of the entire EU economy, which is one of the most important elements of the EU's development.

KostiaFM 01-04-2021 20:41

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April 1. Owners of container ship Ever Given will pay about a billion dollars in fines

The manager of the Suez Canal, Osama Rabia, said that the financial losses from the blocking of the trade route, which arose due to the fault of the container ship Ever Given, would amount to about a billion dollars. This amount will be collected from the owner of the vessel. According to Rabia, the money will go to offset the cost of re-floating the vessel, as well as to cover financial losses caused by the congestion in the waterway. Suez Canal navigation resumed on Tuesday 30 March.

Osama Rabia also said that all ships affected by the forced delay will be given a discount of up to 15% for passage. The discount will vary from 5% to 15%, depending on the period of time for which each vessel was forced to stand idle.

After the incident, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ordered the purchase of the most modern and large dredgers and tugs for his needs. Their cost is estimated at $500 million. The very same vessel Ever Given will remain at a stop in the lakes until the investigation is over, the perpetrators of the incident are identified, and compensation and fines are not paid.

KostiaFM 05-04-2021 17:36

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April 2. Non-farm Payrolls report significantly exceeded expectations

Today, the US Department of Labor released a report Non-farm Payrolls, according to which, the number of jobs outside of agriculture in March rose by 916 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 6%. The current increase significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts (647 thousand) and became the fastest since August 2020.

Stronger US economic growth and strong vaccination efforts fueled the job growth. Analysts note that the country's economy is recovering, restrictions are lifted, and those who have lost their jobs are returning to jobs. The only concern is the potential likelihood of another wave of Covid, which could lead to another round of closings.

In April last year, against the backdrop of the pandemic, unemployment in the United States was at the level of 14.7%, in May – 13.3%, in June – 11.1%, in July – 10.2%, in August – 8.4%. and in September – 7.9%. The actual figure of 6% clearly speaks of a significant recovery in the American labor market. In mid-March, the Fed improved its forecast for US unemployment in 2021 to 4.5% from 5%. In 2022, the indicator will be at the level of 3.9% against the previously expected 4.2%, in 2023 – at the level of 3.5% against 3.7%.

KostiaFM 08-04-2021 13:32

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April 7. Coronavirus and Emerging Markets

The coronavirus pandemic is having a strong negative impact on emerging markets.

India yesterday confirmed over 115,000 new cases of Covid-19, a record high in history. If the current trend continues, it means that the peak of the epidemic in India has not yet been reached. The country, which is the world's largest vaccine producer, has suspended exports to other countries in order to vaccinate its citizens.

Turkey is also seeing a rapid increase in the daily rate of Covid-19 infection. Almost 50,000 new infections were confirmed in the country yesterday, also a record high.

The economies of India and Turkey have experienced high inflation rates even before the surge in infections, so the pandemic could further exacerbate their internal economic problems.

At today's meeting, the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 4%.

KostiaFM 09-04-2021 20:50

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April 8. US stock markets continued their upward rally

Reports on initial and ongoing jobless claims in the US were released today, which turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts. Moreover, today traders will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the IMF, although they do not expect important news from this speech.

More information has emerged about the tax changes planned by President Joe Biden's administration. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has previously excited the markets with statements of a minimum international tax - an idea that the EU also supports. It turned out that the 15% tax that it offers will apply only to companies with annual revenues of at least $ 2 billion, which means it will have less impact on the market than previously thought.

Tax plan adjustments are beneficial for the stock markets. Today, American stock indices continued to renew their all-time highs, despite disappointing data on unemployment in the country.

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca's share price is rising, despite the company's continuing troubles. The European Medicines Agency and the UK Medicines and Health Agency have determined that AstraZeneca vaccine, in rare cases, can contribute to a possible death from blood clotting.

Due to the rarity of this problem (20 out of 20 million vaccinations in the UK) and the severity of Covid-19, both agencies still recommend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. This optimism is most likely the driving force behind the rise in the pharmaceutical company's stock.

KostiaFM 13-04-2021 16:11

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April 12. The first blockchain operator was founded in Russia

The Moscow Exchange and members of the FinTech Association (AFT), which includes large Russian credit institutions, founded the first blockchain operator in Russia. In addition to the Moscow Exchange, VTB, PSB and the National Payment Card System (NSPK) and AFT took part in the project. Each co-founder owns 1/6 of the share in the company.

The creators of the operator are confident that it will allow the development of innovative products and services, as well as reduce costs for all market participants.

AFT will transfer the rights to the only Russian certified blockchain platform «Masterchain» to the operator. With the help of this platform, services and products are created using Russian cryptography standards.

KostiaFM 19-04-2021 08:12

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Oil market. April 15, 2021 | Brent remains in the area of monthly highs

On Thursday, oil prices continued to be in the area of ​​monthly highs, thanks to improved forecasts for global fuel demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel.

Prices were supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which oil demand is expected to grow by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to 2020. And this is 230 thousand barrels per day more than previously predicted. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also improved its forecast for global oil demand for the current year and is now expecting an increase of 5.95 million barrels per day.

Additional support for quotations of «black gold» was provided by yesterday's data on crude oil reserves in the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil reserves last week fell by 5.89 million barrels, while analysts had expected a half-cut, by 2.89 million barrels. In the current environment, oil prices will continue to trade above $66.00 per barrel.

KostiaFM 19-04-2021 12:21

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April 16. Why is the oil market growing?

The oil market continues to grow on Friday. Brent quotes reached $67.37 per barrel, WTI – $63,87. Experts note that the general fundamental background continues to support prices.

In particular, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on Wednesday announced a decrease in commercial crude oil reserves in the week of April 3-9 by 5.9 million barrels. In addition, projected gasoline demand rose to an almost 8-month high of 8.9 million barrels per day, down 5% from the same period in 2019.

Another factor supporting the «black gold» was the increase in the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on demand for crude oil in 2021 by 230 thousand barrels per day. Now the agency believes that this year the demand for oil will be 5.7 million barrels per day higher than in 2020, and will amount to 96.7 million barrels per day.

OPEC also raised its forecast for oil demand this year by 100 thousand barrels per day. The organization expects that global oil demand in 2021 will grow by about 6 million barrels to 96.5 million barrels per day. OPEC also raised its forecast for global economic growth – to 5.4% from 5.1%.

The weakening of the dollar continues to contribute to the rise in prices, which remains under pressure against the background of the decrease in the yield of Treasury bonds below the level of 1.60%.

KostiaFM 20-04-2021 22:34

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April 19. Wall Street declines, consolidating after record peaks

On Monday, the US stock market opened lower, consolidating in the absence of important economic news. Earlier last week, Wall Street hit another record high.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 114 points to 34.066 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 4.158 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% to 13.873 points.

The main reason for the decline in the market, analysts called the sharp sell-off of cryptocurrencies over the weekend, which reminded investors how hectic the atmosphere was in the financial market during the pandemic.

Tesla shares plunged 4% after another Tesla self-driving car crash resulting in two fatalities, once again calling into question the capabilities of the Full Self-Driving software. Peloton shares lost more than 7% after a public dispute with US regulators over the safety of its Tread +. Coinbase Global shares fell 0.9% after the cryptocurrency sharp correction seems to have exhausted itself. Growth leaders included Harley-Davidson, Manchester United Football Club and GameStop.

KostiaFM 23-04-2021 07:17

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April 21. What to expect from the Bank of Canada meeting today?

Today the Bank of Canada has to make a decision on monetary policy, and it will not be easy. On the one hand, the latest macro statistics for the country were very strong: the economy is actively creating jobs, consumer spending is growing, production activity is accelerating, and the housing market is showing buyers willingness to pay even more than sellers are asking for.

Given these factors, the Central Bank of Canada should be confident and willing to wind down its bond buyback program. However, it is not all so simple.

The fact is that the number of Covid cases in the country is growing steadily, and many parts of Canada are re-imposing restrictions, which will be extended until the end of May. The new restrictions will slow economic recovery and prevent the Bank of Canada from winding down stimulus. Accordingly, the contradiction between strong macro statistics and strict quarantine is one of the reasons why it will not be easy for the Bank of Canada to make a decision on the rate.

The current quote for the USD/CAD pair is 1.2600. The US dollar rose sharply yesterday from 1.2470 to 1.2625. If the Bank of Canada maintains its positive outlook and underscores the outlook for economic recovery, the pair could respond with a decline to 1.25. But if the regulator focuses on risks, and the tone of the statement is cautious, the pair may break through the 1.27 level on the wave of short coverage.

KostiaFM 30-04-2021 12:05

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April 26. The meeting of all OPEC + ministers will take place on April 28

On April 28, a meeting of all OPEC + ministers and a meeting of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will take place. On the eve of these events, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said that the organization sees positive signals in the development of the world economy and in the prospects for the oil industry. At the same time, many factors remain that require constant monitoring and maintaining vigilance.

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak noted that the main task at the OPEC + meeting will be to analyze the situation on the oil market. Novak regards the current situation as «balanced».

Recall that due to the drop in oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, OPEC + has reduced its production by 9.7 million barrels per day since May 2020. As demand recovered, the restrictions were adjusted, and for the current April they amount to 6.9 million barrels per day.

Since May, OPEC + has agreed on a further reduction in the volume of reduced production – to 6.55 million barrels per day, from June – to 6.2 million, from July – to 5.76 million.

KostiaFM 30-04-2021 22:10

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April 27. US economic indicators exceed forecasts

According to the research organization Conference Board, the index of consumer confidence in the United States in April rose to 121.7 points compared with the revised index of 109 points in March. Earlier, the indicator value for March was estimated at 90.7 points. Analysts had expected the index to reach 113 points.

Successful vaccination of the population, as well as a visible improvement in economic performance, has a positive effect on American sentiment. The indicator of the attitude of American consumers to the current financial situation in April soared to 139.6 points from 110.1 points in the previous month.

Experts point out that consumer confidence has skyrocketed over the past two months and is now at its highest level since February 2020.

In addition, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 20 largest US cities jumped 11.9% year-on-year in February, the fastest growth since March 2014. In monthly comparison, the indicator increased by 1.2%.

KostiaFM 03-05-2021 10:54

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April 28. Ethereum updated the maximum on news about the launch of digital bonds

Ethereum, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, reached a new peak on Wednesday amid news that the European Investment Bank (EIB) is launching digital bond sales on the Ethereum blockchain. As a result, Ethereum hit an all-time high of $2,725, up 5.5%.

Yesterday it was revealed that the EIB plans to issue a two-year digital bond worth €100 million, with Goldman Sachs, Banco Santander and Societe Generale leading the sale.

Experts note that the news of the EIB's digital bond issue prompted institutional investors to buy the token. They also noted a decrease in the supply of Ethereum in the market, which led to an increase in its price.

KostiaFM 04-05-2021 07:14

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April 29. US GDP in the first quarter grew by 6.4%

According to a press release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, the country's GDP in the first quarter of the year, according to the first estimate, grew by 6.4% on an annualized basis (if GDP grew at the same rate for four quarters in a row). Analysts predicted that the economy would expand by 6.1%.

At the same time, according to the first estimate in annual terms (that is, in relation to the same period of the previous year), the US economy in the first quarter grew by 0.4%.

According to the results of the whole last year, the US economy declined by 3.5%. Experts note that such a decline in the largest economy in the world was the strongest since 1946, when the indicator fell by 11.6%. In addition, this was the first decline in US GDP in a year since 2009 – then the indicator dropped by 2.5%.

US GDP in the IV quarter of 2020 grew by 4.3% on an annualized basis and decreased by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.

KostiaFM 05-05-2021 16:37

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May 03. German GDP fell 1.7%

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the country's GDP contracted in the first quarter by 1.7% in quarterly terms and by 3% in annual terms. At the same time, Germany's GDP in the third quarter of last year grew by 8.7%, and in the fourth quarter – by 0.5%.

The weakening of the largest economy in Europe pulled down the entire economy of the eurozone countries: according to preliminary data, the total GDP of the eurozone countries fell by 0.6% in the first quarter.

Experts note that the new restrictions introduced in Germany during the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic have negatively affected the country's economy. First of all, consumer demand has been hit hard by the restrictions. Moreover, the head of the Dusseldorf Chamber of Commerce (CCI) Gregor Berghausen noted that the German economy loses more than 5 billion euros a year due to sanctions against Russia.

KostiaFM 06-05-2021 12:23

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May 4. Oil prices returned to two-month highs

On Tuesday, oil prices started to rise steadily, climbing to $69 a barrel, the high of early March.

Market participants are trying not to get hung up on the worsening epidemiological situation in India, but prefer to focus on the prospects for a recovery in global economic activity as quarantine restrictions are lifted.

Brent is also supported by the position of the OPEC + alliance, whose members continue to gradually increase the volume of oil production. The Iraqi oil minister said yesterday that the organization will try to keep oil prices within normal averages and not worry about falling prices.

Also, the focus of market participants remains the negotiations between the United States and Iran on a nuclear deal. If sanctions against Iran are lifted, it will allow Iranian manufacturers to return to the world market.

KostiaFM 11-05-2021 21:49

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May 10. SpaceX will launch a satellite to the Moon, paid for by Dogecoin

SpaceX will launch a satellite to the Moon during the mission, which will be paid for with Dogecoin cryptocurrency. This was announced on Twitter by the head of the corporation Elon Musk. He wrote: «Mission paid at Doge. The first cryptocurrency in space, the first meme in space.»

SpaceX Vice President Tom Ochinero noted that the launch of a satellite to the Moon (DOGE-1 mission) «will demonstrate the use of cryptocurrency outside of Earth orbit and lay the foundation for interplanetary trade.»

The satellite itself belongs to the Canadian company Geometric Energy Corporation (GEC) and is a 40-kilogram device equipped with sensors and cameras. Its launch with a Falcon 9 launch vehicle is scheduled for the first quarter of 2022.

Last week, Dogecoin peaked at $ 0.69. Prior to Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live, the token's value climbed to a record $0.73, but during the airtime it dropped 30%.

KostiaFM 12-05-2021 20:57

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May 12. Wall Street falls after inflation data

Wall Street indices declined on Wednesday after better-than-expected US inflation data raised fears of a Fed monetary tightening.

According to the US Department of Labor, in April, consumer prices rose at their most in almost 12 years due to increased demand amid the opening of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the highest since April 1982. As a result, market participants expect a 0.25 percentage point rate hike by the end of 2022 after such a strong acceleration of inflation in April.

Uncertainty around the dynamics of rates and inflation is forcing investors to revise their portfolios, especially in technology stocks.

As a result, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.93% to 33.950.66 points, the S&P 500 index - by 1.20% to 4.102.33 points, and the Nasdaq – by 1.91% to 13.133.86 points.

KostiaFM 17-05-2021 21:31

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May 17. Russia in March retained the second place in oil production in the world

According to the Joint Petroleum Statistics Initiative (JODI), Russia in March again remained in second place in the world in terms of oil production with an indicator of 9.508 million barrels per day. The United States retained the world leadership, while Saudi Arabia remained in third place.

Russia remains in second place for the eleventh month in a row. Only in April 2020 Russia dropped to third place. Until this moment, the Russian Federation has also been in second place for over a year.

According to the JODI, oil production in Russia in March increased by 1.3% compared to February. The United States increased production by 11.2% in monthly terms – to 10.968 million barrels of oil per day, while Saudi Arabia – reduced by 0.1%, to 8.138 million barrels per day.

Oil exports from Saudi Arabia in March decreased in monthly terms by 3.5%, to 5.427 million barrels per day, and from the United States – increased by 7.5%, to 2.85 million barrels. In February, the Russian Federation exported 4.361 million barrels of oil per day, and in January – 3.986 million.

KostiaFM 24-05-2021 08:01

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May 21. Germany explained Europe's need for Nord Stream 2

Representatives of the German Bundestag said that the practical economic interests of Germany and other European countries have finally outweighed US political opposition to the Nord Stream 2 project.

The US State Department previously said that Nord Stream 2 AG, which is building the gas pipeline, is subject to sanctions, but refused to implement them, citing national security. White House officials admit that the pipeline will now be difficult to stop.

Moreover, Germany has already raised the issue of the possibility of transporting hydrogen through this pipeline. According to Heiko Hessenkemper, member of the Bundestag Committee for Economic Affairs and Energy, this should also become an important part of Germany's climate policy.

Also, Germany is confident that not only does it need Russian natural gas, but also other countries, such as the Netherlands, which used to be exporters and are now becoming dependent on natural gas imports. Politicians note that «the building blocks have now been laid for the normalization of relations and the growth of European-Russian trade.» Therefore, there is no doubt that the gas pipeline will be completed.

KostiaFM 25-05-2021 11:41

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May 24. Gold rises in price on weaker dollar and lower yields on US bonds

On Monday, the price of gold is growing against the background of a weakening US dollar and a decline in yields on US government bonds. The current quotation of the precious metal is $ 1885.35 per troy ounce.

Gold price continues to rise for the fourth trading session in a row. The dollar index again dropped below 90 points, and the yield on ten-year US Treasuries fell to 1.6% from the previous close of 1.632%.

Analysts note that falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar have created good conditions for a rise in gold prices. In particular, the weakening dollar makes gold more accessible to holders of other currencies. And the decline in the yield on US government bonds, in turn, makes them less attractive as an alternative in the field of «safe» investments.

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