NZD USD Forecast for the Week 28th November, 2016

[xtreamforex]

During the European session on Friday, the USD/JPY pair demonstrated strong upward momentum, crossing the 140.20 mark. This surge in the exchange rate can be attributed to the diverging monetary policies pursued by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The BoJ has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, while the Fed has resumed its tightening policy, leading to the weakening of the Japanese Yen against major currencies.

Positive signs for the US economy were evident in the latest weekly data released by the US Department of Labour (DOL). Initial Jobless claims for the week ending July 15 totaled 228,000, surpassing market expectations of 242,000 and marking a decline from the previous figure of 237,000. This reading represented the lowest level since mid-May. Furthermore, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey showed a reading of -13, better than the consensus of -10. However, Existing Sales for June were disappointing, revealing a contraction of 3.3% MoM after a marginal 0.2% gain in the previous reading.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike. Additionally, the possibility of another rate hike before the year’s end has gained traction following the release of the latest economic report. As a result, the US Dollar is displaying broad-based strength in the forex market.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, is maintaining its position above the $76.60 level on Friday, displaying consolidation after achieving its fourth consecutive weekly gain. This upward momentum comes amidst indications of a tightening oil market.

Adding to market dynamics, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated, with Russia attacking Ukrainian food export facilities for the fourth consecutive day and seizing ships in the Black Sea. These geopolitical developments have provided support to WTI prices.

Examining recent data, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 708,000 barrels in crude oil stocks for the week ending July 14. This figure contrasted with expectations of a 2.44-million-barrel decline and a 5.946 million barrel gain observed the previous week, further contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding WTI.

Additionally, Baker Hughes disclosed a decline of seven oil rigs in the United States this week, marking the largest drop since early June. With the number of active oil rigs reaching its lowest level since March 2022, at 530, concerns over the supply-side dynamics have emerged, propelling crude oil prices higher.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The GBP/JPY pair has seen a significant rise for the second consecutive day on Monday, reaching a three-week high in the early European trading session. The pair is currently hovering around the 182.80-182.85 region, a surge of over 650 pips from Friday’s lowest point since June 13. This upward trend is largely due to the widespread weak performance of the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Indeed, the JPY is one of the worst-performing currencies among the G-10 and is under pressure due to an unexpected operation by the Bank of Japan to purchase ¥300 billion ($2 billion) worth of Japanese government bonds (JGB). This marks the first such operation since February 2022 and comes after a notable increase in the yield of 10-year benchmark JGB to a nine-year high, triggered by the BoJ’s decision to introduce more flexibility into its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy last Friday. The BoJ stated that the 0.5% cap for the 10-year JGB yield will now be considered “references” rather than “fixed limits”.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

During Tuesday’s Asian session, the USD/CAD pair exhibited a modest rebound, managing to recover most of the losses experienced in the previous trading session. Presently, the pair is hovering around the 1.3220 mark, reflecting a modest 0.25% increase for the day. This recent price action places the spot prices in proximity to the three-week high recorded on Monday, generating interest among traders and investors.

The principal driving force behind the recent strength of the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to the growing likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing further policy tightening measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements from the previous week, emphasizing the necessity of an economic slowdown and labor market weakness to achieve a credible 2% inflation target, have significantly contributed to the USD’s surge. Additionally, a positive US GDP report has bolstered market expectations regarding a potential 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed, possibly taking place in either September or November. As a result of these developments, US Treasury bond yields have experienced an upward trajectory, thereby increasing the allure of the Greenback as a safe-haven asset, especially amid lingering concerns surrounding China’s post-COVID recovery slowdown.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

EUR/GBP is currently facing a struggle to maintain its strength near the 0.8600 level, as it enters Wednesday’s London session. The cross-currency pair appears to be brushing off mixed Eurozone data, while at the same time validating concerns over the UK’s economic outlook, resulting in the largest daily surge in two weeks seen in the previous trading session.

The recent release of the UK’s inflation data, which showed a downturn, has given some support to the Bank of England (BoE) hawks, as they try to combat soaring inflation amidst sluggish economic activities and labor market challenges domestically. Adding to the woes of the British Pound (GBP) is the setback faced by the ruling Tory Party in the recent by-elections, where they lost some key seats, further dampening market sentiment towards the currency.

Meanwhile, on the European front, Germany’s Unemployment Rate for June eased to 5.6%, slightly better than the 5.7% forecast and the previous reading. Additionally, the final figures of Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for July came in as expected at 38.8. Similarly, the Eurozone’s HCOB Manufacturing data also matched the initial forecasts of 42.7.

Supporting the euro, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been taking a “meeting-by-meeting” approach, and their recent decision to implement a 0.25% rate hike has boosted confidence among EUR/GBP bulls.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The USD/CAD currency pair has stabilized around the 1.3350 mark, a significant one-month high, in a volatile market landscape where key US economic data is keenly anticipated. This relative steadiness is due to a mix of contributing factors, including the decline in Oil prices and a lukewarm performance by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The recent fluctuations in WTI crude oil prices have been striking. The commodity rose to its highest point since April 17, before abruptly reversing course and suffering its largest losses in six weeks. This sudden swing was instigated by an increase in risk aversion and rising speculation that Oil producers, especially those in OPEC+, are resistant to further production cuts. As per Reuters’ sources, the Oil cartel is likely to maintain its current output policies in its upcoming meeting on August 4. Consequently, WTI crude oil prices are currently on a two-day downward trend, trading approximately at $79.20 per barrel, indicating a 0.40% intraday drop.

Conversely, the US Dollar Index (DXY) found some resilience amidst the risk-averse market atmosphere. Boosted by robust US Treasury bond yields, the DXY hit a three-week peak. Moreover, encouraging US ADP Employment Change figures for July added to the positive outlook for the US Dollar. However, a persistent resistance line that’s held for nine weeks is limiting the DXY’s gains, keeping the gauge steady against six major currencies at 102.60.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

As the week draws to a close, the Euro (EUR) continues to trade in an uncertain manner against the US Dollar (USD), keeping the EUR/USD pair confined within a tight trading bracket around the 1.0950 mark. The uncertainty is mirrored in the USD Index (DXY), which has maintained steady trade within the mid-102.00s range. This lack of clear direction can be attributed to the absence of a definitive trend in US yields, despite their recent surge to nine-month highs across multiple segments of the yield curve.

Investors’ attention is now drawn towards the forthcoming release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for July. The report is widely anticipated to reflect an increase of approximately 200K jobs. This heightened interest is largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s recent emphasis on the role of economic data in shaping its monetary policy decisions, a point that was underscored during its event held on July 26.

Currently, there is rampant speculation that the rate hike executed by the Fed in July might be the last one we will see in the near-term future. This conjecture has been fuelled by the Federal Reserve’s insistence on basing its decisions on economic data points, suggesting that unless the data indicates a need for further hikes, the current rates could hold steady for some time.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair encountered notable selling pressure, leading to a retracement from its recent peak near the 1.1040 level. During the Asian session, spot prices slipped below the psychologically significant 1.1000 mark, temporarily disrupting the two-day recovery that had lifted the pair from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0910. The recent rebound in EUR/USD had come after it touched a nearly one-month low last Thursday, signaling underlying weakness in the currency pair.

Driving the market sentiment, the US Dollar (USD) gained traction as investors embraced the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite a somewhat underwhelming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday, which indicated the addition of 187,000 jobs in July with downward revisions for May and June figures, the USD found support due to robust wage growth and a lower unemployment rate, both of which pointed to a tightening labor market. These factors solidified the possibility of the Fed implementing a 25 basis points rate hike in either September or November, bolstering the demand for the greenback.

On the flip side, the euro faced challenges as expectations grew that the European Central Bank (ECB) would halt its streak of nine consecutive interest rate hikes during its September meeting. Concerns escalated as indications arose that inflation in the Euro Zone had likely reached its peak. Notably, Fitch Ratings’ statement on the matter and the ECB’s economic bulletin, both hinting at a potential slowdown in underlying inflation, further weighed on the sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD pair.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

During today’s European session, the EUR/JPY pair is showing a bullish trend, targeting the key resistance level of 157.70. This upward movement is significant as it challenges a long-standing falling resistance line. Interestingly, this bullish drive is happening despite weak economic indicators from both Japan and Germany.

The Euro’s strength in the face of lackluster German inflation data and sluggish Treasury bond yields is noteworthy. Despite the expected inflation figures closely matching the forecasts, with a YoY rate of 6.5% for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and 6.2% for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the EUR/JPY pair continues to rise. This suggests a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the European Central Bank (ECB).

However, the driving force behind the pair’s ascent could be linked to the evolving monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), supported by recent wage statistics from Tokyo. While Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings for June exceeded expectations, real wages continued to decline for the 15th consecutive month, dropping by 1.6% YoY. This decline aligns with the dovish stance surrounding the BoJ.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

Asian markets experienced declines on Wednesday due to concerns about the U.S. banking system’s performance, which triggered a slide on Wall Street. Simultaneously, worries about Chinese economic growth added to the downward trend in the region’s stock markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2% to 32,323.31 during morning trading, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained almost unchanged, inching up by less than 0.1% to 7,316.60. South Korea’s Kospi, however, recorded a nearly 1.0% increase to reach 2,598.96. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined by 0.4% to 19,105.19, and the Shanghai Composite also fell by 0.4% to 3,247.64.

Clifford Bennett, the chief economist at ACY Securities, highlighted concerns over China’s export data, which experienced the sharpest decline in three years. He emphasized that this decline reflects not only China’s situation but also the global economy’s challenges.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% to 4,499.38, marking the fifth loss in the last six days, following strong performance in the initial seven months of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 0.4% to 35,314.49, recovering slightly from an earlier loss of 465 points. The Nasdaq composite witnessed an 0.8% decrease to 13,884.32.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD remains cautious around 1.2715-20 ahead of Thursday’s London session, as investors tread carefully before the release of US inflation figures for July. Additionally, the Pound faces resistance due to reports of the UK considering restrictions on British investment in Chinese tech firms. Meanwhile, concerns about a potential British recession and looming higher interest rates in London are also testing the Cable pair’s stability.

A recent report by the Financial Times (FT) suggests that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is contemplating measures to limit outbound investment in the Chinese tech sector, including areas like artificial intelligence, chips, and quantum computing. This news gains traction as Sunak seeks support within the political sphere following disappointing by-election results.

Furthermore, the UK’s prominent think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), projects that British economic output won’t recover to pre-pandemic levels until Q3 2024. The NIESR also suggests a 60% chance of the government facing a recession, while anticipating that UK inflation will remain above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target for the next four years. This could drive the Bank of England towards more hawkish actions to defend the British Pound.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

During the early European session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair maintains its position above the 1.0980 level. Following a retreat from its weekly high of 1.1065 following US inflation data, the major pair has remained in positive territory for a third consecutive day. However, market participants are treading cautiously, opting to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) release later in the American session.

In its monthly Economic Bulletin issued on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) underscored that inflation in the Eurozone is still projected to remain elevated for an extended period, while the prospects for economic growth and inflation continue to be uncertain. According to a Reuters poll, economists do not anticipate reaching the target inflation rate of 2.0% until at least 2025. Moreover, over 90% of surveyed economists expect no rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

Shifting focus to the US Dollar, recent data indicated that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) from 3% in June. Although slightly below the market consensus of 3.3%, this increase in inflation influenced the Euro’s performance. Furthermore, the Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, declined from 4.8% to 4.7%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims surpassed expectations, rising to 248,000 compared to the expected 230,000. As a result, the US Dollar reversed its trajectory, exerting downward pressure on the Euro on Thursday.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading below the significant level of 145.00, retreating from its year-to-date high during the Asian trading session. At present, the major pair hovers around 144.90, experiencing a marginal decline of 0.05% throughout the day.

On Friday, an important development came from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which revealed a substantial increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. In July, the PPI rose by 0.8%, surpassing June’s 0.1% and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for July dipped slightly from 71.6 to 71.2, surpassing the anticipated figure of 71. Moreover, the UoM’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for August declined to 2.9% compared to the previous estimate of 3.0%. This data resulted in a mild increase in buying activity for the USD/JPY pair, driven by heightened expectations of a potential 25 basis points tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of the year. Such expectations could strengthen the US Dollar, providing support for the USD/JPY pair.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made a notable move by offering limitless Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with residual maturities of 5 to 10 years at a fixed rate. This announcement came during the early Asian session on Monday, causing the USD/JPY pair to briefly touch an intraday low near 144.65. Consequently, the pair recorded its first loss in six consecutive days after hitting a fresh yearly high earlier in the same day.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The recent surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has sent shockwaves through the Chinese market. The aim was to stimulate economic growth, but it has led to unintended consequences. The benchmark government bond yield has plummeted to a three-year low, and the yuan has weakened. This decline in bond yields and the currency indicates growing concerns about Chinese assets and the urgent need for further stimulus measures to revive growth.

The PBOC’s decision to lower one-year loan rates by 15 basis points to 2.5% caught many off guard. This announcement came just moments before the release of disappointing economic data, including weaker-than-expected retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures. These factors have exacerbated market sentiment and emphasized the necessity for additional fiscal and monetary measures to support the economy.

Experts suggest that the impact of the rate cut on growth hinges on whether the positive effects of lower rates outweigh the challenges posed by wider rate spreads between China and the US. To regain market confidence, Beijing must demonstrate a commitment to increased spending and further monetary easing, such as reducing banks’ required reserve ratio.

The yield on China’s 10-year bonds has dropped five basis points to 2.57%, reaching levels not seen since the height of the pandemic in April 2020. Concurrently, the yuan has weakened both onshore and offshore, hitting its lowest level since November. The continuous decline in Chinese stocks adds to the overall negative sentiment.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

After the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the GBP/JPY currency pair experienced a surge, surpassing the 185.00 mark. This positive momentum in the cross is due to the encouraging inflation figures from the UK. However, market participants are also closely monitoring the possibility of foreign exchange (FX) intervention by the Bank of Japan.

According to the latest data from the UK’s National Statistics, the CPI for June showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, slightly better than the market consensus of -0.5%. On a yearly basis, British CPI inflation rose to 6.8% in June, in line with expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile oil and food prices, increased by 6.9% in July, surpassing the estimated 6.8%. Additionally, the UK Retail Price Index (RPI) for July reported a month-on-month decline of -0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%.

Meanwhile, Japan’s economic growth data for the second quarter revealed a QoQ increase of 1.5%, higher than the expected 0.8% and the previous 0.7%. On an annual basis, Japan’s GDP rose to 6.0%, exceeding the estimated 3.1% and the previous 2.7%. The Yen’s weakness can be attributed to the monetary policy differential between the US and Japan, with the potential for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England acting as a boost for the Pound Sterling and potentially benefiting the GBP/JPY cross.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The EUR/USD pair continues to gain strength, surpassing the 1.0900 mark in the Asian session for the second consecutive day. This upward momentum comes after the pair rebounded from its recent low of 1.0845, indicating a positive trend.

One of the factors supporting this optimistic outlook is the statement from Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB). Lane predicts steady growth for the Euro Zone economy without a severe recession. This, coupled with the narrowing of the German yield curve, suggests that the ECB may consider tightening its policies, which in turn bolsters the Euro. Furthermore, the modest weakness of the US Dollar adds further support to the EUR/USD pair.

Traders are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s actions, anticipating that they will halt their rate-hiking cycle in September, leading to a decline in the USD Index. However, the US economy has shown resilience, leaving room for a potential rate hike later in the year.

The expectation of higher interest rates is keeping US Treasury bond yields relatively high. Additionally, investors are exercising caution in light of key speeches by the Federal Reserve Chair and the ECB President at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This caution may limit aggressive bets on the EUR/USD pair.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

EUR/GBP finds itself in a crucial juncture, with all eyes on its consolidation around the 0.8520 mark, a pivotal level that could set the tone for its immediate trajectory. As the Asian session unfolded on a Wednesday that carried high stakes, the currency pair grappled with the task of recouping losses incurred during the prior trading day, tentatively floating near the 0.8520 level. This struggle finds its roots in the prevailing apprehension surrounding the potential escalation of interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE).

Market participants have assumed the role of vigilant observers, meticulously following the developments on the UK economic calendar. The spotlight is particularly on the imminent release of the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs) for August. The outcome of this data release holds the promise of illuminating the paths that the respective economies of the Eurozone and the UK are embarking upon. The ripples of this revelation have the potential to resonate significantly in the trading decisions involving the intricate dance of EUR/GBP.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

Despite receiving unfavorable news about the state of the Eurozone’s economy, the EUR/USD exchange rate remains relatively stable, holding above the key level of 1.0850. As the Asian trading session progresses on Thursday, the pair is observed to be trading around 1.0870, marking a second consecutive day of gains. This development is particularly intriguing due to the recent release of weaker-than-anticipated Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and Germany on the preceding Wednesday. This unexpected data has sparked concerns among investors, who are diligently attempting to decipher the potential implications for inflationary trends.

The preliminary HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone in August has displayed a decline to 47, a figure notably below the earlier forecast of 48.5 and also falling short of the 48.6 recorded in the previous month. Simultaneously, Germany’s Composite PMI has registered a drop to 44.7. This outcome is disheartening for market experts, who had projected a more favorable reading around 48.3. A comparison to July’s figure of 48.5 further highlights the subdued nature of the reported data.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The positive momentum in Dow Jones futures ahead of Tuesday’s opening was mirrored by upward movement in S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures during overnight trading, indicating a buoyant start to the trading session.

This week, the ongoing vigor of the market rally remains a focal point as investors turn their attention towards the eagerly awaited Friday jobs report, a pivotal event in the closing week of August. The implications of this report are far-reaching, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate shifts. A strong report wouldn’t necessarily translate to an imminent rate hike, while a less robust report, with payroll gains hovering around 100,000, could potentially take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Simultaneously, market watchers are gearing up for the release of the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and spending for July, an influential indicator of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Thursday.

In terms of earnings, Salesforce.com (CRM), a key player within the Dow Jones, is poised to disclose its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Notably, this leaves just Nike (NKE) and Walgreens (WBA) as the remaining components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet to announce their earnings reports.

In addition, several software companies are slated to release their earnings, including MongoDB (MDB), Nutanix (NTNX), Samsara (IOT), as well as security software entities such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA).

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

In the early hours of Wednesday’s European session, the USD/CHF currency pair continued to maintain its position, showing resilience after experiencing its most significant daily loss in the past five weeks, with levels hovering around 0.8790. This retracement in value is occurring in a backdrop where the US Dollar is preparing for pivotal data releases. Concurrently, there has been a perceptible shift in market sentiment away from the previous dovish stance held towards the Federal Reserve (Fed). This shift has created an environment that has enabled the Swiss Franc (CHF) to assert itself, resulting in the pairing securing its first daily gains in a span of three sessions.

The enduring influence of the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains palpable, maintaining a somewhat elevated position due to concerns stemming from recent data releases related to US consumer confidence, employment metrics, and the housing sector. These concerns primarily revolve around the looming possibility of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. This change in stance becomes particularly evident as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscores the importance of anchoring future decisions on data dependencies, thereby underpinning the current hawkish posture. This pronounced sentiment shift has in turn reverberated across the Greenback and the broader landscape of US Treasury bond yields.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The GBP/USD pair is currently maintaining a stable position, having achieved progress over the course of the past three days. During the Asian session on Thursday, the pair exhibited a trading pattern characterized by subtle fluctuations, with its value hovering around 1.2720. This particular price point has experienced minimal changes throughout the day, residing just slightly below the peak reached in the preceding day – a notable high sustained for a duration of one week.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is drawing support from a significant technical indicator known as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This support has effectively halted the USD’s recent decline from its elevated position reached back in June. This occurrence acts as a resistance factor for the GBP/USD pair, influencing its movement. In parallel, the anticipation of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) continues to bolster the British Pound. This, in turn, shapes a prudent outlook for traders with a bearish stance on the pair.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, has articulated the possibility of prolonged maintenance of restrictive policy rates due to the enduring effects of persistent price surges. On the other side of the equation, the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) enacting a temporary halt in its series of rate hikes is exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar. This counteracting force serves to mitigate the potential downward shifts in the GBP/USD pair.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The USD/CAD pair remains in a defensive stance around 1.3510, rebounding from its two-week low as it enters the European session on Friday. This resilience comes even as the pair fails to respond positively to the surging prices of Canada’s primary export, WTI crude oil, with traders keeping a close watch on upcoming US employment data and Canadian GDP figures.

Despite a broader US Dollar recovery and anticipation of crucial economic data, the USD/CAD bears persisted in the previous session. The rise in WTI crude oil prices to a multi-day high added further downward pressure to the pair. Additionally, a significant revision in Canadian Current Account data for Q1 2023 contributed to the downward momentum.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has seen a four-day consecutive increase, reaching $83.40 and hitting a three-week high. This rally is driven by a series of measures implemented by China to safeguard its economy from a return to pandemic-induced conditions. Notably, the People’s Bank of China reduced the foreign reserve ratio by 2.0%, and numerous Chinese banks lowered Yuan deposit rates. Adverse weather conditions, including Hurricane Idalia in the US and concerns about a typhoon in China, along with a substantial inventory drawdown in the US, have also fueled the rise in oil prices.

[B]Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex[/B]

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY is holding steady around 146.10-15 as we enter Monday’s European session, following a slow start to the week with Japan’s GDP numbers and the US ISM Services PMI in focus. The lack of action in the Yen pair can be attributed to the US Labor Day holiday, as well as mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Earlier today, Japan’s Monetary Base data for August showed a 1.2% year-on-year growth in liquidity, compared to -1.3% in the previous period. Despite cautious optimism in the market and inactive bond markets due to the US holiday, the market still expects the BoJ to support the Japanese Yen (JPY).

In other news, market sentiment remains positive as China implements stimulus measures and hopes rise for no more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

China’s government recently established a special cell to promote the private economy and remove barriers for the services industry, boosting sentiment on Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also made a significant cut to its foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR), with several China banks reducing interest rates on Yuan deposits. Furthermore, there are reports that China will take more action to revive the country’s property sector.

On the flip side, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) adopting a hawkish stance in the future has decreased, particularly following the mixed US jobs report for August. This positive market sentiment weighs on the USD/JPY price.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a bit of a sticky situation. It’s currently hanging around the 1.0780 level, which is pretty important. It’s been at this level for about 5.5 months. Recently, there was a tiny bounce, but that excitement didn’t last long. Why? Well, the European Central Bank (ECB) folks didn’t drop any hints that they’re going to be super aggressive with their money moves. On the flip side, the US Dollar is flexing its muscles because of changes in interest rates and some big money events coming up in Europe and the US.

Philip Lane, who’s the big shot economist at the ECB, said that inflation data for August wasn’t looking so hot. But he also said we should chill a bit and wait for more data before we go making any big decisions. The ECB President, Christine Lagarde, is also all about keeping our expectations for inflation in check. Other bigwigs at the ECB think the same way.

Now, over in the US, things are looking up. The US job numbers (Nonfarm Payrolls) and what Moody’s thinks about US growth have people thinking that the US might get more serious about its money game. That’s been giving the Euro a hard time. Plus, folks in the market aren’t completely sold on what China is doing with its money, and there’s some tension between China and the US, which makes the US Dollar look even better.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The Asian stock market is not doing so well today. Even though China’s property stocks are getting better, the overall situation is not great. People who trade stocks are being careful because they saw big losses yesterday. They are also waiting for a report called the US ISM Services PMI.

A thing called the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) has gone down by almost 1%. But in Japan, something called the Nikkei 225 has gone up by 0.75% in the morning.

Yesterday, a number for China’s Caixin Services PMI in August was not so good. It was 51.8, which is lower than the 54.1 from before. This made people worry about China’s economy. There is also a problem between the US and China, and the US Commerce Secretary talked about it. She said that the US will keep taxes on things from China until they look at it again in four years.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The NZD/USD pair is currently facing a tough challenge during the Asian trading session. It’s hovering around a level between 0.5865 and 0.5860, marking its lowest point since way back in November 2022. The main culprit behind this struggle is the strong US Dollar (USD), and the Federal Reserve (often referred to as the Fed) isn’t showing any signs of lowering interest rates anytime soon. This weighty situation has put significant pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Recent positive news about the US economy has added to the pressure. A key indicator called the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which measures the health of service-based businesses like restaurants and stores, reached its highest level since February. This signals that the US economy is performing quite well. This positive news has led many to believe that the Fed might increase interest rates again this year. When the Fed does that, it’s generally good news for the US Dollar.

However, investors are growing increasingly concerned about a couple of factors. When interest rates rise, it can become more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow money, potentially slowing down the economy. Moreover, there’s unease surrounding China’s economic slowdown. These concerns have collectively dampened the appetite for riskier assets, including the New Zealand Dollar, which is often affectionately called the Kiwi.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD has seen a glimmer of hope after enduring three consecutive days of losses. In the Asian trading session on Friday, the currency pair made a modest recovery, hovering around the 1.2490 mark. This turnaround can be primarily attributed to a correction in the value of the US Dollar (USD), which had been enjoying an impressive winning streak for the past three days. The trigger for this correction can be traced back to a pullback in US Treasury yields. In particular, the 10-year US Treasury bond yields experienced a decline of 1.36%, resting at 4.22%, as compared to the previous day.

The recent US economic data has played a role in shaping the currency dynamics. On Thursday, the release of employment data revealed that Initial Jobless Claims had fallen to 216K on September 1st, a notable improvement from the previous figure of 229K. This exceeded expectations, as analysts had projected an increase to 234K. Additionally, in the second quarter (Q2), US Unit Labor Costs surged to 2.2%, a significant uptick from the previous 1.6%, contradicting earlier forecasts. These favorable economic indicators have been contributing to the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, is currently trading around the 104.90 mark. Although it remains below its highest level since April, which it reached on Thursday, the USD is displaying resilience.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

During the Asian session on Monday, the AUD/USD held above the 0.6400 area, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefiting from a weaker US Dollar and diminishing concerns about China’s deflation. Currently trading near 0.6425, the pair has gained 0.75% for the day.

Following the G20 Summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed greater confidence that the US can effectively manage inflation without negatively impacting the job market. Yellen also stated that inflation indicators are decreasing, with no significant wave of layoffs. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also outlined the central bank’s objective of leading the economy towards a “golden path.” This scenario envisions falling inflation rates without causing a recession. Furthermore, Fed New York President John Williams emphasized the decline in inflation and the improving economic balance.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has priced in a 93% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the September meeting and a 43.5% chance of a rate hike at the November meeting. Strong US economic data from last week supports the expectation of a sustained low-interest rate environment in the US. This could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and limit the upside potential of the AUD/USD pair.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, GBP/JPY exhibited a resilient upward trend, currently hovering around the 183.70 mark. The pair’s recent gains can be attributed to a nuanced assessment of the latest employment data emanating from the United Kingdom.

The Office for National Statistics unveiled key labor market indicators that stirred the forex landscape. To begin with, the ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) for July came in at 4.3%, marking a slight uptick from the previous reading. This figure, however, remained in alignment with market expectations, somewhat soothing trader sentiments. Conversely, the headline Employment Change for July left markets disheartened, recording a worrisome decline of 207,000 jobs, a stark contrast to the previous month’s modest growth of 66,000 positions. This disappointing plunge surpassed market forecasts, which had anticipated a more modest reduction of 185,000 jobs. On a brighter note, the Claimant Count Change for August displayed a positive shift, improving to 0.9K from the previous figure of 29K, signaling a potential turnaround in the UK labor market.

In parallel developments, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann injected a dose of optimism into the British Pound (GBP). Mann’s remarks suggested that it is premature for the central bank to halt its interest rate adjustments. She emphasized a proclivity towards pursuing a more aggressive rate-hiking strategy rather than ceasing these adjustments prematurely. Such hawkish commentary often resonates well with traders, providing support for the British Pound (GBP) and, by extension, the GBP/JPY pair.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

In the early hours of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair found itself in a stable position, hovering just above the mid-1.3500s range. This marks a phase of consolidation for the pair, following its recent descent to a one-and-a-half-week low that was recorded just the day before.

One of the key factors influencing the exchange rate dynamics in this context is the robust performance of crude oil prices. These prices have been on an upward trajectory, currently residing close to a 10-month high. The driving force behind this surge is the mounting concerns over tightening global supplies of oil. OPEC’s decision to implement deeper supply cuts, coupled with a surge in global demand, has set the stage for further tightening of oil markets throughout the year. In light of this, the Canadian dollar, often regarded as a petrocurrency due to its close correlation with oil prices, is experiencing a boost, while the US dollar is grappling with a muted performance. This divergence between the two currencies has effectively established a level of resistance for the USD/CAD pair.

As traders navigate these market dynamics, a notable event on the horizon is the impending release of the US consumer inflation figures, scheduled for later in the North American trading session. These figures are highly anticipated as they are expected to offer crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective plans regarding interest rate hikes. The outcome of this release is poised to significantly influence the directional course of the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, the prevailing sentiment among investors is one of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining a hawkish stance and prolonging higher interest rates. This sentiment is partly rooted in the recent string of positive macroeconomic data emanating from the United States, coupled with inflation that has shown a slower-than-expected pace of increase. These factors collectively lend support to the notion of further monetary policy tightening in the near future.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

Silver witnessed a fleeting upward movement during the Asian trading session, attempting to breach the pivotal $23.00 level. However, this surge was short-lived, with silver unable to maintain the momentum required to sustain a position above this critical threshold. Delving into the intricacies of this price action, the breach below the $22.85-$22.80 support range signifies a significant shift in market sentiment that leans decidedly bearish. This sentiment is further corroborated by closely examining the oscillators on the daily chart, which appear to signal the potential for further downward movement.

The repercussions of this bearish sentiment set the stage for a testing period for silver as it gears up for a retest of the robust support zone in the $22.20-$22.10 range. In more pessimistic scenarios, the price could venture even lower, extending its downward trajectory to the $21.25 region.

In the event of a shift in momentum favoring the upside, silver would encounter various resistance levels. Initially, surpassing the psychological hurdle at $23.00 would be met with a resistance barrier of around $23.20. Further upward momentum would then contend with the presence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average, a key technical indicator, which is situated within the $23.45-$23.50 range. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA would pose another formidable obstacle at approximately $23.80, closely followed by the psychologically significant $24.00 level.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The USD Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against its major counterparts, experiences a slight retreat, trading around the 105.30 level at the week’s end. This decline comes after three consecutive daily gains that followed Thursday’s peak in the 105.40/45 range.

The subdued risk appetite across global markets puts pressure on the US dollar. European markets open with caution, still digesting the outcomes of the recent ECB meeting. Additionally, US yields, which rose on Thursday, are poised to continue their advance.

Market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming actions is undergoing a shift. Bets on a 25 basis point rate hike in November are waning, while speculation about interest rate cuts in the second quarter of the next year gains traction.

On the economic calendar, the US is set to release data on Export/Import Prices, followed by reports on Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilization, and the preliminary figures for Consumer Sentiment for the current month.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

EUR/GBP has continued its upward trajectory, making gains for the second consecutive day and currently trading at around 0.8610 during the European trading session on Monday. This surge in the currency pair can be attributed in part to the recent statements made by Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), which have bolstered market confidence.

Lagarde’s remarks on Friday were particularly noteworthy, as she indicated that ECB policymakers had not contemplated the implementation of further rate cuts. Furthermore, she emphasized the central bank’s commitment to maintaining interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period and expressed a willingness to raise rates if deemed necessary. This stance has reassured investors and traders alike, contributing to the Euro’s strength.

Commerzbank economists have also weighed in on the aftermath of the ECB’s recent rate decision. According to their analysis, the ECB’s move to signal the suspension of rate hikes aligns with market expectations. Nevertheless, it carries a degree of risk as it hints at a potentially less hawkish stance on monetary policy, which could impact the Euro’s performance in the coming days.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

WTI, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, is demonstrating resilience as it hovers around the $90.90 mark on Tuesday, driven primarily by a constrained supply outlook championed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nonetheless, the trajectory of WTI prices remains clouded by concerns related to a potential economic deceleration in China, which could potentially impede further price hikes.

The recent upswing in WTI prices can be unequivocally attributed to the deliberate actions of two oil giants—Saudi Arabia and Russia. These formidable players in the global oil market have unveiled their plans to sustain a tight grip on oil production cuts until the conclusion of 2023. In a committed move, Saudi Arabia has pledged to curtail its daily oil output to an approximate 1.3 million barrels, a commitment set to endure through the aforementioned timeframe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stern warning, asserting that the oil market’s deficits will only exacerbate during the fourth quarter, courtesy of the production cuts strategically orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia over the summer.

In a recent statement, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister underscored the collaborative efforts of the OPEC+ alliance in stabilizing oil markets and bolstering global energy security. Notably, no explicit target price for crude oil was disclosed. However, it was acknowledged that the market’s current volatile landscape is being significantly influenced by the prevailing ambiguity surrounding China’s oil demand, thereby casting a significant shadow on global crude prices.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

As the eagerly awaited Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision inches closer, the USD/JPY currency pair finds itself in a holding pattern, oscillating within the narrow range of 147.70 to 147.85 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. Presently, the pair is hovering at 147.83, registering a minimal 0.01% decline for the day.

Market participants widely anticipate the Fed to maintain its current interest rates in the September meeting, as indicated by the CME Fedwatch Tool, which assigns a 99% probability to this scenario. However, the outlook for rate hikes in November and December has been adjusted downward, a factor that might exert downward pressure on the US Dollar.

In an effort to align US economic growth with its potential rate and address concerns about inflation, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has expressed the need for a slowdown. Meanwhile, the latest economic data reveals that US Building Permits for August surpassed expectations, but Housing Starts saw a slight decline.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

Asia-Pacific shares followed the downward trend set by Wall Street on Thursday, as investors interpreted the latest policy statements from the US Federal Reserve as a signal of higher and longer interest rates.

The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, MSCI’s (.MIAPJ0000PUS), was down 0.4% in early afternoon Hong Kong time. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slid 0.6%, China’s blue-chip (.CSI300) dipped 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s benchmark shed 1.3%.

The yield on two-year US Treasury notes rose to a 17-year high of 5.1970% on Thursday morning and hovered around 5.18% by early afternoon.

Similarly, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached its highest level in a decade, in line with the US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 16-year peak at 4.4310%.

“We anticipate further increases in bond yields in the near future due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position,” said Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. He added that while high interest rates can cool the economy, they remain positive on long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate debt, as well as growth and tech stocks.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY rebounds from Thursday’s losses following the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. As expected, the BoJ maintained its current rates at -0.1%. During early European trading on Friday, the spot price is hovering around 148.30.

In a press conference after the September policy meeting, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of ending yield curve control and adjusting negative interest rates when 2% inflation is within reach. He emphasized that the BOJ’s policy decision-making process remains unchanged, with careful analysis of new data at every monetary policy meeting.

Ueda also mentioned that inflation has not yet reached a stable 2% level and that the next monetary policy decision in October will consider data including the government’s extension of gasoline subsidies. The Bank of Japan is prepared to implement further easing measures if necessary due to uncertainty in economic conditions, price trends, and currency and financial markets.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index for August showed a reading of 3.2%, slightly lower than the previous rate of 3.3%. The National CPI ex-Fresh Food remained consistent at 3.1% against expectations of 3.0%.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The AUD/USD pair is currently undergoing a retracement, with its value hovering around the 0.6420 mark during the Asian trading session on Monday. This pullback comes after the pair experienced some upward momentum last week, buoyed by a combination of positive Australian PMI data and a weaker US Dollar.

Australia’s PMI data provided a mixed picture, with the Services PMI showing a modest improvement, rising to 50.5 in September from 47.8 in August. On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI declined slightly from 49.6 to 48.2. The Composite Index, which combines both sectors, managed to move into expansion territory, climbing from 48.0 to 50.2.

The recent minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September meeting hinted at a dovish stance. While the RBA acknowledged the possibility of additional tightening measures if inflation persists, they also emphasized the case for maintaining the current monetary policy. This delicate balance in the RBA’s approach underscores the importance of upcoming economic data, particularly Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures, which could significantly impact the AUD/USD pair’s trajectory.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The Australian Dollar (AUD) put anAUD Ends Winning Streak Amid RBA Policy Focus

BOJ Debates Exiting Easy Policy, 10-Year JGBs Weaken

Nikkei Rises in Asian Trade; China, India on Holiday

end to its recent winning streak on Monday, marking the third consecutive day of losses. The AUD/USD pair had received support earlier, primarily driven by positive Chinese PMI data released over the weekend. However, the US Dollar (USD) showed resilience following moderate economic data released on the previous Friday.

Australia’s TD Securities Inflation data for September indicated a decrease in inflation compared to August. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate in the upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia for the same month displayed an improvement compared to July, primarily due to rising energy prices. This increase in inflation could potentially influence the RBA’s policy decision.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to strengthen in the second trading session after the release of moderate economic data from the United States (US). Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August met expectations but was lower than July’s figures. US Core PCE MoM data fell below market consensus, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September showed improvement compared to previous figures.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

The price of gold has sharply declined, hitting its lowest level since March due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase. The Fed’s concerns about persistent inflation and the possibility of another rate hike in 2023, combined with strong US macroeconomic data, have heightened the likelihood of further policy tightening. This has led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields and pushed the US Dollar to its highest point since November 2022, diverting investors from non-yielding gold.

Gold has been on a continuous downward trend for seven consecutive days, bringing it down to $1,815 during the recent Asian trading session. Interestingly, this decline has occurred despite the generally weaker performance of equity markets, which would typically boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven. It suggests that the prevailing direction for gold remains downward. However, it’s worth noting that extreme oversold conditions on the daily chart warrant caution among bearish traders.

In the realm of market developments, the gold price is suffering due to growing expectations of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. This streak of declining gold prices is the longest since August 2022, with Fed officials emphasizing the need for a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is open to further rate hikes if incoming data suggests insufficient progress on inflation, and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr emphasizes the importance of maintaining sufficiently restrictive rates to achieve their goals. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also warns of inflation risks skewed toward the upside, necessitating higher rates to continue the disinflation process.

Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex