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NZD USD Forecast for the Week 28th November, 2016

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  #41  
Old 22-09-2022, 10:34
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Default Re: NZD USD Forecast for the Week 28th November, 2016

How Much FOMC Interest Rate Hike By Fed?

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lifted the federal funds rate to the 3.0% to 3.25% range and reaffirmed a continuation of its balance sheet runoff. The Fed updated its language stating the “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures”.

The Summary of Economic Projections was updated from June:-

The median projection for real GDP growth was downgraded in 2022. The forecast for 2023,2024,2025 and the longer run came in at 1.2%, 1.7%, 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

The median unemployment rate forecast was 3.8% for 2022. 4.4% for 2023, 4.4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. The longer-run estimate of the unemployment rate stayed the same at 4.0%.

On inflation, the median estimate for core PCE was assumed to be 4.5% in 2022, 3.1% in 2023, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
The median projection for the fed funds rate was lifted to 4.4% in 2022, 4.6% in 2023, 3.9% in 2024, and 2.9% in 2025. The long-run neutral rate was assumed to be 2.5%.

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  #42  
Old 23-09-2022, 12:29
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Default Re: NZD USD Forecast for the Week 28th November, 2016

BOE: Another 50bp hike and we expect more to come

The BOE hiked policy rates by 50bp, bringing the bank rate to 2.25. The extent to which fiscal policy is set to boost demand and hence impact policy setting is still highly uncertain. Call for a 50bp hike in November and December and 25bp in February with risks of skewed towards additional hikes in 2023.

The Bank Of England increased the Bank Rate by 50bp to 2.25% with 5 member voting for 50bp increase, 3 members voting for 75bp and one member voting for 25bp. As expected, BoE announced that outright government bond selling will start with a total reduction in bond holdings of 80 billion pounds over 12 months. The BoE repeated its meeting-by-meeting approach stating that “Policy is not on a pre-set path” giving close to no forward guidance to markets.

One of the key takeaways from the Monetary Policy Summary is that the BoE no longer seem to pencil in a recession by Q4 2022. Note no inflation or growth forecast were published at this interim meeting, but not mentioning a recession gives a hint that the recession won’t hit as soon as BoE predicted in August. This feeds well into our narrative of the Fiscal stimulus providing near-term support to the economy. With newly elected PM Lizz Truss having announced the energy relief plan, which will cap energy prices for households, BoE now sees the peak in CPI inflation to be just below 11% compared to the 13% projected in August.

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Old Yesterday, 11:23
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Default Re: NZD USD Forecast for the Week 28th November, 2016

GBP down during Asian Trade

The pound was aggressively lower during Asian trade. CME stopped trading of GBP futures. GBP/USD touched a record low. Combination of the UK’s mini budget and flight to the dollar weigh on sterling.

The GBP was already facing heavy selling pressure on Friday when the UK’s new chancellor unveiled his new mini budget. The plan has been perceived as a tax cut for the rich alongside higher levels of debt, with one former treasury minister calling budget a “high risk gamble. The week closed with GBP/USD falling to just shy of its all time low set in 1985. And that level did not last very long.

In today’s session there is an aggressive selloff for the British pound, which has sent GBP.USD to a fresh record low. Currently down around -2.4%, its within its fifth consecutive down day, which includes a -3.6% decline on Friday. Such levels of volatility have not been seen since March 2020, and not restricted to GBP/USD.

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