Feds Kashkari: Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact
 

• Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation.
• Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact.
• Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path.
• Had thought monetary policy was in a good place.
• Fed need to see how big and longer-range shock will be.
• Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased.
• Doesn't think the latest round of tariffs will have fresh inflation impact.
• Doesn't seem much chance to substantially increase level of tariffs.
• Needs more data to know what Fed should do with rates this year
• The labor market is in a decent place.
• Fed has to hit 2% inflation target
• Strength of economy suggests higher neutral rate.
• Ahead of the Iran attack, Fed job inflation mandates felt more stable.

Bottom Line

Kashkari sounds data-dependent and cautious, but the emphasis on inflation risks and watching headline inflation carefully gives the comments a slight hawkish lean, rather than dovish.

At the most recent FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026, Kashkari voted with the majority to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

The decision was 10–2 in favor of holding rates steady, with two dissenters who preferred a 25 basis point rate cut.

Kashkari aligned with the consensus to pause, supporting the decision to leave policy unchanged rather than advocating for a hike or a cut at that meeting.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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