S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The market is all-in on a September cut

[Forex News]

FundamentalOverview

The US CPI yesterday came mostlyin line with expectations and wasn’t strong enough to force a reassessment on aSeptember cut. In fact, the pricing for the Fed actually increased from 57 bps ofeasing by year-end to 61 bps after the US CPI report.

The majority of Fed votersare also on board for a cut in September so now we will likely need a hot NFPto reduce the probabilities towards the 50% chance, although it's more likelythat the market will just price out the chances for the future cuts.

The focus now switches toFed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, although he willlikely either join his colleagues or just repeat that they will decide based onthe totality of the data.

For the stock market, thisis all good news as the Fed’s dovish reaction function despite a resilienteconomy, keeps growth expectations skewed to the upside favouring the bullishtrend. This is a train that can’t be stopped unless the Fed changes its stance (openingthe door for hikes) or we get some negative growth event like we’ve seen in April.

S&P 500Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that the S&P 500 extended the gains into new all-time highs as the FOMOis now kicking in. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will definitelyhave a better risk to reward setup around the trendlineto position for further upside, but we will need a big pullback for that whichis not expected at least until September. For the sellers, a break below thetrendline would open the door for an even deeper pullback into the 6,160 level.

S&P 500 TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. We just got a bounce from it yesterday following the US CPI report,and the price is now trading just above the previous all-time high.

The buyers will likely pilein around these levels with a defined risk below the previous all-time high toposition for further upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for abreak lower to target a pullback into the minor trendline.

S&P 500 TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the recent price action although there’s not much we can addhere. The 6,460-6,475 area should act as support,so if we get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to step in to targetnew highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a drop intothe trendline. The red lines define the averagedaily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Tomorrow we get the US PPI and the US JoblessClaims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales andthe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Focus also on Fedspeak, especiallyafter yesterday's US CPI data.

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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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