Forex Forums | ForexLasers.com


Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRAINING > Forex Articles


High Probability Trading

Forex Articles


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
Old 26-02-2015, 21:06
Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 979
Default High Probability Trading

Even traders with limited experience start to realize that we are not trying to capture every market move. We want to improve our odds and reduce our frustration by filtering, for high-probability trades.

The combination of trend and Fibonacci techniques can provide powerful signals for higher probability trading. We already know that trend-lines have some validity, and so do Fibonacci levels. Combine the two, to improve your chances.

The following charts are the USD/British Pound GBP. First, the daily chart as of October 5th 2005. I have drawn a red down-sloping trend-line joining the two recent swing highs.

The chart has moved down since early September , making a down-trend of consecutive "waves" with lower swing highs and lower swing lows. There were several opportunities to take advantage of the down-move. In this tutorial we will focus on the October 6th opportunity.

In a down-trend we want to short those swing highs, and take profits on swing lows. We don't want to short every time we **think** we have a swing high. If you have tried that, you know about whipsaw and fake-outs already haha. We only want the best trades, those which are more likely to succeed. So how do we choose an optimum entry point?

Our odds are improved if we have a swing high near a down-sloping trend-line (in red on the chart). Markets tend to reverse at Fibonacci levels. So if we have a significant resistance level near a trend-line we have an even better chance of success.

The next chart shows the GBP with Fibonacci resistance levels. Notice the "SK Resistance" level. This represents an area of significant resistance, with a higher probability of a reversal.

If you are new to Fibonacci, those studies look like a confusing series of colored lines. Learning how to use these Fibonacci studies, and which of them are stronger (higher probability), is really easy! I have made two video seminars that explain this.

That "SK Resistance" level, coinciding with a trend-line is an optimum shorting zone. If the market reaches that area (we can't be sure it will), and if the market resists there, we want to take a short position. Once the resistance materializes, it will be difficult for the market to move against us.

Most of us are not trading the daily chart, but we can use the longer-term charts to find **powerful** trends and Fibonacci levels. The next chart is a 60-minute chart. I choose 60-minutes because it clearly shows when resistance has materialized. You may prefer a 30 minute or 5 minute chart.

The following 60-minute chart shows how the Pound rallied to the SK resistance level, and the trend-line. It rallied over those, tested them briefly, then retreated. There are several ways to determine whether resistance has materialized. I have some very powerful techniques for that purpose. However we want this tutorial to focus on some basics. So for now we will use the obvious breaking of the rising trend as our trigger.

During that rally upward, the 60-minute chart has a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Once we broke the highest swing low (see the last bar on the above chart), we know that up-trend has expired. So we want to start shorting rallies and take profits on dips as shown on the next chart (60-minute chart).

Notice how the market broke down, and never looked back! That is what happens when you combine trend-lines with Fibonacci techniques. The best trades go your way and keep on going. That is a characteristic of higher-probability trading.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 28-02-2015, 13:25
mocharifin's Avatar
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: some place in peace
Posts: 101
Send a message via Yahoo to mocharifin
Default Re: High Probability Trading

Drawing profit and strategy in previous chart is really easy. It would be different if predicting future market moving, I suggest you to following the analytics services from liteforex, its great and accurates
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 03-03-2015, 15:37
fxsatria's Avatar
Level II Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: hell's door
Posts: 37
Default Re: High Probability Trading

How many years have you been trade in liteforex broker sir??
I'm also trade in liteforex, using balance about $900. Its great place. Its support really interesting..
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 15-03-2015, 07:02
fatonahfx's Avatar
Level II Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 48
Default Re: High Probability Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by mocharifin View Post
Drawing profit and strategy in previous chart is really easy. It would be different if predicting future market moving, I suggest you to following the analytics services from liteforex, its great and accurates
You are right sir, drawing previous chart is really easy.
Predicting coming chart is hard and difficult.
I think that using EA is more easy than using analysis.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 15-03-2015, 16:38
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 200
Default Re: High Probability Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatonahfx View Post
You are right sir, drawing previous chart is really easy.
Predicting coming chart is hard and difficult.
I think that using EA is more easy than using analysis.
I dont prefer EA's as they are very un predictable, so its better to trade according to your capability and knowledge about market.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 17-03-2015, 14:27
Level III Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 54
Default Re: High Probability Trading

yeah. it is great. all trader want profit. they always find the strategy. how we can encrease the winning percentage. i think it is good. we will ready learn from many sources. it will make a successfull trader
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 17-07-2023, 16:22
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 758
Default Re: High Probability Trading

Trading is when we see any USA or top-rated country news, so investors should always look for top news from a reliable source, like the FreshForex broker's news portal, where they won't face any problems with current news.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
High risk high profit ?? agree?? shere1779 Forex Discussion 10 21-02-2025 13:02
New to High Frequency Trading, Signals/Triggers? PaulSilverman Forex Systems 4 23-08-2015 18:32
High Security WHSBroker LU- Licence chase Broker Talk 2 18-04-2015 16:26
Stochastic High-Low Trading system piptrading Forex Systems 6 27-02-2012 09:15
5K high performance managed accounts Managed FX Software / Signals / Services 0 13-04-2010 04:06


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:33.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.