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Intraday Technical Analysis May 2019

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  #1  
Old 01-05-2019, 07:29
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Default Intraday Technical Analysis May 2019

The early Asian trading session today saw the release of the first quarter employment report. New Zealandís unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as forecast from 4.3% previously.

The quarterly employment change fell 0.2% missing forecasts. Elsewhere, Canadaís monthly GDP report on Tuesday showed a 0.1% decline following a 0.3% increase in January. Most of the Asian and European markets are closed today on account of labor day bank holiday.



Euro Gains As GDP Advances
The common currency outshone the USD as the preliminary GDP reports were positive. Flash GDP estimates for the first quarter rose 0.4%, beating estimates of 0.3% and up from a 0.2% increase previously. The USD remained on the back foot despite some upbeat data. The Conference Boardís consumer confidence report saw the index rising to 129.2 while pending home sales gained 3.8%.

Can the EURUSD Break-Out from the Resistance?
The euro currency is holding steady as it advanced to 1.1226. Establishing resistance here could see the common currency drifting sideways. The lower support is formed at 1.1140. Within this range, the EURUSD could potentially extend the declines lower for another retest of the support. To the upside, in the event that the euro breaks higher, 1.1280 will be the next main resistance level of interest.



Oil Prices Muted due to Venezuela Coup Attempt
Oil prices remained muted amid reports of an attempted coup to overthrow President Maduro. Many world leaders also joined in, voicing support for the opposition leader. While oil prices briefly spiked, they settled lower on the day. The APIís crude oil inventory report showed a build of 6.81 million barrels keeping a lid on the gains.

Crude Oil to Maintain the Sideways Range
Crude oil briefly tested the resistance area of 64.65 on Tuesday before giving up the gains promptly. Price action remains trading sideways within 64.65 resistance and 62.85 support. A breakout from this support is required for oil prices to continue the correction. A close below 62.85 will lead to further declines toward 60.33 level. However, we expect to see another retest to 64.65 resistance ahead of the declines.



Gold Steady Ahead of Fed Meeting
Gold continued to trade within last Fridayís range as price remained largely muted. The FOMC will be concluding its two-day Fed meeting today. We expect no changes to the interest rates but the markets are pricing for at least one rate cut this year. President Trump tweeted for the Fed to cut rates by 1% as the FOMC meeting was underway.

Remains Range Bound for the Moment
Price action in gold suggests that the sideways range established in the medium term is likely to hold. The resistance level is at 1285 while support is established at 1273. A breakout from this range is essential for gold to further establish the direction. The long term trend remains to the downside. A close below 1273 is required to push gold prices lower. To the upside, above 1285, the 1296 level comes into the picture.
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Old 02-05-2019, 07:30
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis May 2019

The latest monthly private payrolls data from ADP/Moodyís Analytics showed that employers added 275k jobs in April. This beat estimates of a 181k increase. Numbers for March were revised higher to 151k.

However, ADP reports that most of the jobs were concentrated in the services sector. And there were job losses in the mining and quarrying sector. The ISMís manufacturing PMI report saw activity falling to 52.8 from 55.3 in March.

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Euro Weakens Amid a Quiet Trading Day
The euro was seen trading muted on Wednesday. Many European markets were closed on account of the May Day Bank Holiday. That being said, the common currency was rising earlier in the day in the run-up to the Fed meeting. However, the euro gave up the gains just after rising to a two-week high. Traders will be looking up to the final manufacturing PMI figures due later today.

EURUSD Biased to the Downside
The euro was briefly lifted on Wednesday as price test the resistance area of 1.1248 Ė 1.1226. Prices were rejected at this level as the euro settled lower on the day. The downside bias is likely to strengthen. The EURUSD could be seen extending the declines to retest the support at 1.1140 in the near term. Overall, price action could remain trading flat within these levels until there is a breakout.



Oil Weakens on Inventory Build Up
Crude oil prices were trading weaker on Wednesday. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly crude oil inventory report saw a buildup of 9.9 million barrels in the last week of April. This was higher than the forecasts of a 1.5 million estimate. The build in the EIA report comes after the API had, earlier this week, reported an increase in oil inventory.

WTI Holds on to the Support
WTI crude oil is testing the support level at 62.84 for the second time as price action settles into a range. The resistance level that was briefly tested at 64.55 is the likely upside target. A firm close near the 64.55 resistance level will confirm the resistance level, following which oil prices could break to the downside from the current range. A close below 64.55 will see crude oil extending towards the lower support at 60.33.



Gold Eases Gains as Fed Stays Neutral
Gold prices gave up the intraday gains following the FOMC meeting. The precious metal traded higher on the day but fell after the Fed left the interest rates unchanged. The central bank also maintained a neutral tone in its statement. This was in contrast to the general expectations that the Fed could start preparing the markets for a rate cut. Gold was down 0.5% on the day.

XAUUSD Likely to Trade Sideways
XAUUSD continues to trade within the range that is established. Price briefly tested the resistance area of 1285 yesterday before slipping back to the support formed at 1273. A daily close below 1273 support is required to confirm further downside in the precious metal. For the moment, the upside bias seems to be diminishing. A close below 1273 will potentially see the bearish trend resuming in gold.



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Old 03-05-2019, 07:24
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis May 2019

A busy day for traders today will see some high ticket events. The official payrolls report for April will be coming out. Economists forecast an increase of 181k jobs during the month with the US unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8%.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to more than double from the month before. Later in the day, the ISMís non-manufacturing PMI will be coming out followed by speeches from various Fed members.

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Euro Trades Soft Against the USD
The US dollar was maintaining its bullish momentum a day after the Fed meeting. This came as investors digested the FOMC meeting. The dollar gains came as the Fed was seen to be less dovish than expected, calling the current weakness in inflation transitory. Meanwhile, factory orders rose 1.9%. In the eurozone, the final manufacturing PMI rose only modestly to 47.9.

Can the EURUSD Extend Declines Lower?
The common currency Ďs rebound off the lows near 1.1140 saw price rallying. But, failure to build upon the momentum sent it lower just a day later. EURUSD is trading back within the range. The downside support at 1.1140 is likely to be tested in the near term. A rebound off this region could keep the currency pair supported, but further gains above 1.1226 are hard to come by.



Oil Slips 3.2% on Fears of Inventory Build Up
Crude oil prices posted sharp declines on Thursday as the price of WTI crude oil settled at 61.56. The declines in oil prices come as at the EIAís weekly inventory report showed an increase in inventories. The declines marked a one-month low in oil. Volatility in the oil prices could continue as Iranís sanctions on oil exports get underway.

Can Oil Recover from the Declines?
Oil prices could potentially rebound off the current lows. The recently breached support level at 62.85 could see price retesting this level. Establishing resistance here could signal a potential downside move. However, with the bearish momentum currently, oil prices could continue to extend declines. The downside could stall near the support region of 60.33.



Gold Steadies Near the 200-day Moving Average
The precious metal fell 0.56% on the day on Thursday. However, by the sessionís close, gold prices pulled back, consolidating near the 200-day moving average. The rebound in gold prices comes amid reports that the US and China trade talks could hit some obstacles. However, traders are holding back ahead of the payrolls report due later today.

Can XAUUSD Correct Higher?
At the time of writing, XAUUSD is attempting to recover the losses from Thursday. Price action is back to retest the 1272 level. If the resistance level holds we expect to see the downtrend continue. Alternatively, if gold manages to close above the 1272 handle, price action could remain range bound. A daily close, relative to the 1272 region will key in the near term.

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