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Orbex 02-04-2019 07:03

Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The US dollar index managed to hold on to the gains amid a mixed batch of economic reports. Retail sales fell 0.2% in February unexpectedly, while the ISM’s manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 during the month.

Construction spending data also came out stronger than expected. The dollar index rose 0.1% as it advanced closer to test a three-week high.

Euro Slips as Inflation Slows
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose to a slower pace of 1.4% on the year in March, official data showed on Monday. This was well below February’s headline inflation of 1.5% increase.

Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation slowed to a pace of 0.8%, marking the slowest increase since April last year. The common currency lost 0.11% on the day as a result.

Will the EURUSD Declines Continue?
The currency pair slipped below the support level of 1.1217 on Monday and price action is now likely to test the March 7th lows of 1.1174 if the bearish momentum continues. However, there is a risk that the euro could post a modest rebound with the Stochastics oscillator heavily oversold. Any gains could stall near 1.1217 where resistance is likely to be established.

Risk Appetite Puts Yen on the Backfoot
The Japanese yen lost 0.30% on the day on Monday. The declines came despite soft US data and China’s PMI which increased for the first time in five months. China’s vice premier, Liu He, is expected to arrive in Washington to continue with the trade talks. Investors remained bullish on risky assets in hopes of receding trade war concerns.

Can USDJPY Break the Resistance?
The currency pair extended strong gains on the day and price settled near 111.34 as a result. This marks a close right near the resistance level of 111.40 level where the USDJPY is currently consolidating. A breakout above this level is required for the USDJPY to continue to the upside, targeting 112.51. Failure to break out above this level may keep the USDJPY muted, but the declines could be limited.

Gold Trades Close to Three-Week Low
The precious metal traded mostly muted on Monday, but price action turned bearish towards Monday’s close. Gold prices posted declines falling to a three-week low at the time of writing. The precious metal was down 0.36%, tracking the rising global risk appetite.

Can XAUUSD Break Out Lower from the Support?
XAUUSD is currently trading near the familiar support area of the 1290 – 1284 region. Previously, prices consolidated at this level before correcting to the upside. The 1284 support will be critical in the short term as a break down below this level could trigger sellers in the medium term. This would push gold prices lower to test the 1240 level of support. However, watch out for a potential double bottom pattern that could form at the support.

Orbex 03-04-2019 07:36

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The greenback tested a four week high at 97.09 on Tuesday before promptly giving back the gains. The reversal pattern comes amid a host of economic reports and news that the US and China drew closer to agreeing on the tariff plans. Today’s ADP payrolls report will be an important data point for the markets.

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Euro Rebounds After Slipping to 4-week Low
The common currency was seen extending declines on Tuesday as the pair lost a modest 0.07% on the day. Producer prices report for the eurozone saw a 0.1% increase on the month in March, missing estimates of a 0.2% increase. This was also slower than February’s gains of a revised 0.3% increase.

Will the EURUSD Reverse Declines?
The euro currency closed on Tuesday with a potential reversal pattern. But we need to see a bullish close on the day today to confirm this view. A rebound off the lows and a close above 1.1217 could confirm a move to the upside. The main resistance level at 1.1249 will be key in capping the gains. The Stochastics oscillator, however, signals that the upside momentum remains weak.

Yen Posts Modest Gains
The Japanese yen rose 0.03% on the day as trading in the USDJPY was rather subdued. The market sentiment was somewhat mixed with the Treasury yields stabilizing. Durable goods orders fell 1.9% on the month compared to estimates of a 2.1% decline. Core durable goods orders rose 0.1%. Economic reports from the US continue to come at a slightly better than expected forecasts.

Will USDJPY Be Able to Close Above Resistance?
The currency pair managed to close above the resistance level of 111.40 on Tuesday. However, the close wasn’t very convincing which could result in prices probably reversing off the resistance level. A bullish close on the day is required to confirm that the upside momentum is intact. This will set the stage for the USDJPY to test 112.51 as the next upside target.

Gold Stays Muted Ahead of Payrolls Report
The precious metal managed to post modest gains, rising 0.38% on the day on Tuesday. This reversed part of the declines from the day before. Overall, gold remains muted with price testing a technical support level and ahead of the March payroll figures due in the latter part of this week.

Can the Consolidation Push Gold Higher?
The XAUUSD has failed to break down below the support level of 1284 and has instead consolidated in the support area. This led to price action inching modestly higher. While price has previously attempted to rebound, it failed. We see this current rebound as another attempt for a correction to the upside. Failure to post any major gains could lead to price to fall back to the support area. A break down below 1284 is key for gold to resume the declines.

Orbex 04-04-2019 07:14

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The US dollar traded weaker on the day on Wednesday. The ADP payrolls report was disappointing, with the private sector showing a potential slowdown in the labor market. The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI was also lower, rising to 56.1 and missing estimates of 58.1. The March data was weaker compared to February’s headline print of 59.7.

Euro Rebounds as Retail Sales Rise
The common currency rebounded off Wednesday’s lows as it gained 0.25% on the day. The latest retail sales report rose 0.4% on the month in February, beating estimates of a 0.2% increase. Data from Eurostat showed an increase in non-food products contributing to the gains. Final services PMI for March saw an increase in the index from 52.7 in the previous month to 53.4.

Has the EUR/USD Carved a Bottom?
The euro initially slipped to four-week lows but managed to rebound rather quickly. Price action is seen stalling near the previous highs of 1.1246. A breakout above this level is needed for price action to continue toward 1.3300. In the near term, watch for a dip toward 1.2177 where the euro could be forming a right shoulder in the evolving head and shoulders pattern that may trigger the upside bias.

Sterling Gains for a Third Session
The sterling extended gains for a third consecutive session, posting gains of 0.22% on the day.

The British Prime minister May will be holding talks with the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn. The UK has nine days left to chalk out a Brexit deal. Investors now expect to see the UK leave the EU with an acceptable deal in hand.

Will the GBP/USD Continue to Extend Gains?
After rising for the past three consecutive sessions, the currency pair is quite likely to maintain the upside momentum. Price action has stalled near the minor resistance of 1.3171 level. A breakout above this level could push the cable to test the previously established highs of 1.3312. To the downside, GBP/USD has to close below 1.3117 to invalidate the upside bias.

Gold Eases but Declines Stay Modest
Gold prices were down 0.37% on the day on Wednesday. The declines in the gold prices were modest as investors remain on the sidelines ahead of this week’s official payrolls report. On Wednesday, the ADP payrolls report disappointed, with the private sector adding just 129k jobs compared to a revised 197k jobs in February. The March payrolls saw the smallest pace of increase since September 2017.

Can Gold Breakout from the Wedge Pattern?
XAUUSD continues to maintain its holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s payroll report. With prices firmly supported near the 1287 – 1284 level, XAUUSD is consolidating into a descending wedge pattern. Price is currently attempting to break out from this pattern. Gold prices are likely to extend the gains to 1301.50 and then to 1305. Resistance is very likely to form at this level. Further gains can be seen only on a continuation above this level.

Orbex 05-04-2019 07:04

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The US dollar was seen recovering from the losses from the day before. The weekly jobless claims report dropped by 10,000, falling to 202,000. This was the lowest level since 1969 for the week ending March 30. US President Trump said that there were still some key issues to be resolved on the China trade deal. The President is expected to meet with China’s Xi Jinping soon.

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Euro Erases Gains from the Previous Session
The euro currency gave up the gains from the day before after some of the economic institutes in Germany cut growth forecasts. Forecasts for the leading economy in the eurozone were cut to 0.8% from 1.9% previously. There were also cautions that growth could further slow in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The grim data was underlined by German factory orders which fell 4.2% in February, marking the biggest drop in two years.

EURUSD Holding on to Support – Can it Break Out Higher?
The 4-hour chart in the EURUSD currency pair shows a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that is taking shape. This comes after the common currency failed to break the resistance at 1.1246 and fell to 1.1217. This marks the formation of the right shoulder. If the neckline resistance at 1.1246 is breached, then the EURUSD could extend the gains to 1.1275 at the very least.

Yen Eases, Waiting for the Jobs Report
The Japanese yen was trading weak against the greenback on Thursday. Price managed to post modest gains as the USD jumped on the record weekly jobless claims report. This was ahead of today’s monthly payrolls report. Investors expect the US unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.8%, while wages are forecast to rise 0.2% on the month. The economy is projected to add 175k jobs during March.

Can USDJPY Maintain the Upside Momentum?
The currency pair broke the resistance level at 111.40 but the momentum looks to be getting slower. This comes after prices consolidated just below the resistance level prior to the breakout. In the near term, the USDJPY could retest the 111.40 level to establish support. As long as the support holds, we expect the momentum to continue. But failure to keep the momentum going could push the USDJPY below the resistance level and could consolidate prices once again.

Gold Holds Steady
Gold prices were a bit volatile yesterday as price briefly fell to a four-week low before reversing the declines. The volatility comes as investors gear up for today’s payrolls report which could potentially dictate which way the Fed will turn in its monetary policy. Payrolls rose at a weaker pace in February and recent data from ADP indicates a slower pace of job gains.

Will XAUUSD Hold on to the Support?
The precious metal has been consolidating above the support area of 1285 – 1282 for the past five daily sessions. It was only yesterday’s price action that briefly pierced the support area before pulling back. A break down from the support is essential for gold prices to continue the bearish momentum.

Orbex 08-04-2019 07:04

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The payrolls report for March saw the US economy adding 196,000 jobs during the month. This beat expectations of a 175,000 increase for the period.

The jobs data rebounded from February’s revision to 33k jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8% but wages grew just 0.1% on the month, missing estimates of a 0.3% increase.

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Euro Subdued on German Data
Germany’s factory orders report on Friday saw a 0.7% increase in activity. This was slightly higher than the estimates of a 0.6% increase and follows a flat print from the month before. The common currency was, however, muted on Friday. The Sentix investor confidence report is due later today which could be the main event risk for the common currency.

Will the EURUSD Maintain Its Range?
The EURUSD has failed to break out from the resistance level at 1.1346. Friday’s price action briefly tested this level before prices plunged. However, we see that the consolidation has given rise to an ascending triangle pattern. A breakout from here could see price testing 1.1276 resistance in the near term.

UK Seeks Another Extension to Brexit
British PM May sought another request for an extension to the Brexit deadline on Friday. The UK now seeks the date of June 30th to give it more time to get the deal through parliament. Currently, the UK is expected to leave the EU on the 12th of April. An emergency EU summit is to be held on 10th of April as any extension needs the approval of all 27 EU leaders.

Can GBPUSD Rebound from the Support?
The currency pair lost 0.29% on Friday after price touched down to the support area of 1.2992 – 1.2971 before pulling back. Currently, cable is seen attempting to rebound higher. Price action remains trading sideways within the support area and the resistance level of 1.3312. We expect this range to hold with some upside for the British pound.

Gold Prices Close the Week Flat
The precious metal closed flat on Friday despite the initial volatility from the payrolls report. The overall strength in the US dollar and the mixed market sentiment kept the precious metal in check.

Can XAUUSD Breakout from the Consolidation?
XAUUSD closed on Friday with a doji pattern, marking a whole week where price remained flat near 1285 support. The current rebound off this level is pushing gold prices slightly higher. We expect price to test the 1300 – 1305 level in the near term but further gains are unlikely. Watch for a reversal pattern near the resistance area for a possible reversal back to 1285 support and an eventual breakdown lower.

Orbex 09-04-2019 06:47

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The monthly factory orders report showed a 0.5% decline on the month matching estimates. The declines in February marks a fourth consecutive fall in factory orders. As a result, the USD was trading weaker on the day.

The monthly durable goods orders report was confirmed to show a 1.6% decline on the headline as per the initial estimates. The greenback reversed the gains from last Friday. The US Treasury will also be auctioning the 3, 10 and 30-year bonds this week.

Sentix Investor Confidence Improves
The common currency rose 0.3% on Monday boosted by weaker demand for the greenback. Economic reports from the eurozone saw the Sentix investor confidence rising to -0.3 for April. This was better than the median estimates which forecast a decline to -1.7 and up from -2.2 from the month before.

Can EURUSD Maintain the Bullish Momentum?
After price consolidated briefly, we saw a breakout from the short term resistance level near 1.1246. The euro posted intraday gains to reach highs of 1.1273 before modestly pulling back. In the near term, we expect the pullback to stall near the resistance level of 1.1246. A rebound off this level could indicate the upside momentum to continue with price targeting 1.1275.

Oil Prices Lift Loonie Higher
Oil prices surged on Monday amid a host of geopolitical developments. The fighting in Libya escalated which threatens the oil supply. This comes on top of the OPEC oil cuts and the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. In addition, the Washington administration designated the Iranian revolutionary guard as a terrorist organization, putting more pressure on the supply side. This impacted oil prices as NYMEX crude oil rose 2.1% and sent oil currencies higher.

Will USDCAD Decline?
After previously rallying to the highs above 1.3416, the USDCAD established resistance after failing to breakout higher. Short term support is now at 1.3136 which will be the downside target for the moment. A break down below this minor support level will see the USDCAD declining further toward the support area of 1.2858.

Gold Gains on Fed and Trump Skirmishes
Gold prices advanced on Monday, rising 0.61% on the day. The gains came amid an intraday surge in prices. Christopher Neely, an economist with the St. Louis Fed said that quantitative easing will not affect the US economy in a noticeable way. He stated this after Trump said that the economy would be stronger if the Fed had not raised interest rates.

Can XAUUSD Maintain the Gains?
After briefly testing the resistance level at 1301.50, gold prices retreated from the two-week high. We expect the bullish momentum to continue in the near term as XAUUSD could advance to 1307.50. This marks a retest of the support level which will now see a test of resistance. In the medium term, gold prices will continue to consolidate within the established range.

Orbex 10-04-2019 07:05

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth outlook once again. For the year 2019, growth is forecast to rise by 3.3% compared to 3.5% previously.

The IMF cited several downside risks including Brexit, US-China trade talks and the US, Mexico and Canada trade agreement. Euro area growth was slashed to 1.3% while US growth was cut to 2.3% for the year.

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Euro Waits for ECB Meeting
The euro was trading flat after briefly rising to a nine-day high on Tuesday. President Trump threatened the EU with an $11 billion tariff due to subsidies given to the European airline manufacturer, Airbus. The euro was initially unmoved on the reports but later settled the day flat.

Will the EURUSD Fall?
The currency pair extended declines after it rallied to intraday highs of 1.1276. The current declines will see price retesting the previous resistance level at 1.1245 to form support. If this holds, we expect a rebound which could eventually break 1.1276 to test the 1.1300 region. But a failure at the expected support could push EURUSD closer to 1.1245 and possibly extend further declines.

Crude Oil Slips on Mixed Sentiment
Oil prices maintained the bullish trend but eased after touching new highs of $64.68. Price retreated after conflicting signals. Russia, the largest non-OPEC supplier said on Tuesday that it prefers to increase supply when the current production cuts end in June. This was in contrast to the production cuts currently underway alongside tensions in Libya which have caused oil prices to maintain a steady uptrend.

Is WTI Crude Oil Due for a Correction?
WTI Crude oil has been rallying for the past five consecutive weeks pushing oil prices to a five-month high. The uptrend is still intact, and we expect this current dip to be a mere correction to the uptrend. The main target for crude oil prices is near the $65.00 – $66.00 region. The current dip is likely to see price testing $62.80 where support could be formed.

Gold Eyes ECB Meeting and Fed Minutes
The precious metal managed to post gains for the second daily session as price settled at $1303.92 by Tuesday’s close. The market sentiment helped to push the price of the precious metal higher. With the ECB due to take center stage today, followed by the Fed meeting minutes, gold could remain in a holding pattern in the near term.

Is There More Room for XAUUSD to Rally?
Price action in XAUUSD currently shows that price has settled within the 1307 – 1301 level of resistance as noted few days ago. We expect price to remain flat within this level. However, the risks are balanced as there is scope for gold to breakout higher which could see price attempting to test 1320. To the downside, the support at 1287 – 1284 will be the level to watch.

Orbex 16-04-2019 07:37

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
Dollar Muted As Equities Rally Ease Off

The US dollar closed Monday's session unchanged as earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Citi Group missed expectations, blaming the US economy.
Risk appetite turned to neutral mode following light trading, allowing equities investors to take a breather before increasing bets - either before or after Easter break.

Euro Bulls Fail As All Eyes Shift To German ZEW
EURUSD bulls attempted to break to fresh highs on Monday but failed as they stumbled upon a big psychological resistance at $1.13. With a muted dollar, a light calendar and a relatively slow start to the week, euro traders decided to trade small. Right now, they are patiently waiting for the critical ZEW economic data due to be released. Analysts expect German and euro area sentiment to leave recessionary levels after a depressing period of over one year.

Rejected At $1.13, A Deeper Correction Is Now Possible
It has been a good run for the EURUSD since the double bottom down at $1.1180. Euro rode 140 pips in an impulse move to the upside and received a rejection as the 1.618 Fibo extension at $1.1322 and the upper channel trendline rejection weighed prices down. Since then, the popular pair started correcting down to $1.1289 with the first leg (A to B) suggesting a deeper correction towards $1.1269, or lower.

Aussie Slips Lower On Dovish Comments From RBA Minutes
AUDUSD started the week on a similar note to EURUSD but overnight trading amid RBA's minutes pushed the currency pair 0.4 percent down. Tuesday's flows started coming through after the central bank said that since inflation remained stubbornly neutral and unemployment rose a “decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate”.

Bearish Push Now Supported From Fundamentals Too
Aussie bulls had a go at the last upside move near $0.72 last week and failed. Monday's attempt was even more piteous. With a confluence between the long-term descending trendline (yellow) and the short-term ascending trendline (red) weighing in on prices, the currency pair could head lower towards the golden ratio near 71c. barrier. However, a downside break outside the short-term ascending channel must take place first.

WTI Marginally Lower On News Around Production Cut Deal
Crude oil fell on Monday despite Libya's production remaining under threat and regardless of tightening supplies. Russia's minister, Anton Siluanov, hinted at a market share fight between Russia and OPEC, against the United States. The Russian finance minister's comments indicated that the production cut deal may be abandoned in order to allow prices to fall. That would "shrink" American output.

Oil Could Correct, But No one Knows Where To
The prices of crude oil also saw a rejection near a psychological level. Bears stepped in just before the $65 per barrel barrier and caused a short-term correction that could lead prices further down. In the unlikely scenario that the middle trendline (red) holds, WTI would most likely move higher either for a double top of continuation of the bullish trend. However, a slide down to the lower trendline of the ascending channel (grey) is also possible in the short-term.

Orbex 17-04-2019 06:45

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The quarterly inflation report from New Zealand saw consumer prices rising at a slower pace than forecast. Data from Statistics New Zealand showed that the consumer price index rose 0.1% in the first three months of the year.

This was well below estimates of a 0.3% increase and inflation grew at the same pace as Q4 2018.

The NZD is down 0.64% at the time of writing.

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Euro Eases Despite Rising Economic Sentiment
The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index released yesterday saw an increase in the index from -2.5 to 4.5 in April. The solid rebound came with Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index also rising. Investor confidence in Germany rose to a 13-month high, bringing optimism of a rebound in the eurozone’s economy.

Will EURUSD Break Out Above 1.1300?
The EURUSD retreated off the highs after briefly testing the 1.1300 handle. The retracement saw price falling back to 1.1258. With support forming here, a rebound in the EURUSD is likely. The next main target is at the 1.1330 handle. If the common currency manages to break this level, we anticipate a move toward 1.1400.

Gold Falls for the Fourth Session, 200-day MA Stalls Declines
Gold prices extended declines for the fourth consecutive session, losing 0.83% on the day after pulling back from a 4-month low. Sentiment was already weak but only grew steady as Chicago Fed President Evans said that he expects one more rate hike by 2020. Similar views came from Boston Fed President Rosengren who stated that the economy was doing quite well.

Will XAUUSD Rebound to the Upside?
The declines in the XAUUSD saw the price of the precious metal falling to the 200-day moving average on a daily basis. Price posted a modest pullback following this decline. We expect the bearish momentum to slow as a result. A pullback is quite possible in gold prices with the recently breached support of 1285 likely to serve as resistance.

Oil Rebounds on Weekly API Draw
WTI crude oil caught a bid after the weekly report from the American petroleum institute on Tuesday saw a draw in oil inventories. According to the API data, US crude oil inventory fell 3.09 million barrels for the week ending April 12th. This was in contrast to expectations of a 1.71 million build-up in inventory. Oil traders wait for the official data from EIA today.

Can Crude Maintain the Momentum to the Upside?
Oil prices rebounded sharply on the day as it reclaimed the previous highs near 64.55. However, with the bearish divergence, there is scope for price to erase the gains once again. But despite this, there is a risk of oil prices inching higher to test the 65 – 66 level where resistance is most likely to form. In the short term, we expect oil prices to trade flat within 64.55 and 63.20 corridor.

Orbex 18-04-2019 07:13

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The USD was trading mixed on Wednesday despite positive headlines from China. The first quarter GDP report showed China’s growth rising at a pace of 6.4% beating estimates of 6.3%. Industrial production grew 8.5% on a year over basis. However, risk appetite was kept in check by the close of business.

Eurozone Trade Surplus Rises to 11-Month High
The trade surplus in the eurozone grew to the highest levels in a year in February.

Data from the statistics agency Eurostat showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus grew to 19.5 billion euro from 17.4 billion in January. This was the biggest jump since March 2018. However, the euro did not react much to the data.

EURUSD Eases Back to the Trendline
The lack of momentum in the currency pair has pushed it back to test the minor rising trend line. As long as prices remain supported by the trendline, we expect to see some upside with the 1.1330 level of resistance as the target.

The flash PMI’s are due out later today. The data could potentially decide the outcome in the direction. The lower support at 1.1276 could hold the declines, if any, in the short term.

Oil Slips Despite Weekly Draw
WTI crude oil prices failed to capitalize on the gains from Tuesday as it slipped close to 0.95% yesterday. The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventory report showed a draw of 1.4 million barrels. This was against the estimates of a 1.6 million build up. Tuesday’s API inventories already signaled a draw in the inventories earlier this week which pushed oil prices higher on Tuesday.

Can Oil Decline Further?
The reversal in crude oil comes as price initially rallied to test the previous highs near 64.55. However, failure to gain traction led to oil prices giving up Tuesday’s gains. Crude oil prices seem to have settled within the range of 64.55 and 63.20. A breakout from this range is needed to establish further direction in the commodity.

Gold Extends Losses for the Fifth Consecutive Session
Gold prices continued to fall for the fifth consecutive session, though the pace of declines has become limited. The Fed’s beige book report was upbeat as the report indicates that the US economy expanded at a moderate pace in March and early April. Some of the regional districts even reported strengthening.
Is it Time for a Correction in XAUUSD?
After declining for five sessions, gold prices could attempt to post a minor correction. This comes as price sits near the 200-day MA on the daily chart. An intraday close above 1273.50 is needed to confirm this view. The previously held support at 1285 – 1290 remains the prime target for resistance to be tested but further gains are unlikely.

Orbex 22-04-2019 07:41

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
With most of the US and European markets closed due to Easter Monday bank holiday, the currency markets are expected to be quiet.

Economic data is sparse with only the release of the US new home sales report later in the day. The quiet start to the week comes ahead of some key economic releases and central bank meetings due over the course of the week.

Euro Currency Turns Bearish Again
The common currency gave up the gains from last week as prices slumped to post new one-week lows. The slump in the currency came even as economic data on Friday saw the US building permits and housing starts coming in lower than expected. However, growth concerns continue to plague the common currency bloc.

Will the EURUSD Test the Lower Support?
The euro currency briefly bounced higher to test the minor resistance level at 1.1246. Price has failed to breakout out above this level and is currently seen pushing lower. If the previous lows at 1.1228 are tested, then the EURUSD could be seen falling back to the previous support at 1.1217. Only a breakout above the resistance at 1.1246 will signal further gains to the upside.

Gold Bounces Off 2019 Lows
The precious metal opened today after an extended weekend. After gold fell to fresh 2019 lows, the precious metal is currently seen rebounding higher. Economic data was sparse on Friday and the current jump in gold prices is seen as a result of technical positioning. Big ticket events due later this week such as the US advance GDP report will be key in shaping the direction of gold this week.

Will Gold Rise Higher?
Gold prices formed a bottom near the 1273 handle which also coincides with the 200-day moving average. As price formed a spinning bottom candlestick pattern, a bullish follow-through is required today. If gold manages to close higher, we anticipate further gains in store. Currently, gold is seen testing the previous minor resistance at 1278.80. A breakout above this level will signal further gains targeting 1284.60.

Oil Surges Over 2% as Iran Oil Import Deadline Set to End
Crude oil prices jumped over 2% on early Monday. The gains in the oil prices come as Washington will impose a total ban on crude oil imports from Iran. The US imposed sanctions on Iran in November last year. However, eight countries were exempt from the ban, mostly from Asia. The exemption on oil imports is likely to end on May 2nd. This will fully cut off Iran from the international oil markets.

Can Crude Oil Maintain the Bullish Momentum?
Oil prices surged higher by early Monday’s open and price action is currently testing the highs just below the 66 handle. This marks a retest of the previously breached support level. If resistance is formed near the 66 level, we expect oil prices to begin correcting lower. The initial support is at 64.50.

Orbex 23-04-2019 07:29

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The Canadian dollar rose on the back of rising crude oil prices. WTI crude oil closed on Monday with 2.45% gains. This allowed the Canadian dollar to post gains of 0.25% on the day as a result.Some of the markets were closed on Monday and trading was subdued. Existing home sales report showed a print of 5.21 million units against forecasts of a decline to 5.30 million.

Euro Trades Subdued
The sentiment in the euro is hit by the weak PMI’s from last week. But the currency rose slightly to post a modest 0.12% gain on the day. Economic data was sparse, and today’s docket will see the eurozone consumer confidence report coming out. Economists forecast the consumer confidence to hold steady at -7.

EURUSD Consolidating Into a Bearish Flag
The EURUSD has moved into a temporary holding pattern, forming a bearish pattern. The current retracement could see a downside breakout validating the bearish outlook. Closing below the recent swing low of 1.1228 could signal further declines. The minimum downside is at the support level of 1.1176.

Crude Oil at Six-Month High as Iran Waivers End
Oil prices settled at a six-month high on Monday. The gains came after President Trump announced an end to Iran’s crude oil exports to eight countries. Oil production will now suffer the blow of the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela as well as the political unrest in Libya. In retaliation, Iran threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz which could lead to longer delays in crude oil shipments.

Can WTI Maintain the Momentum?
Following the surge to the 65 – 66 region, the momentum looks somewhat mixed. If oil prices fail to post any major highs from this level, we expect to see prices turning flat. This also potentially sets the tone for a short term correction. The initial support level is at 64.50 which remains a key level to the downside.

Gold Trades Flat as Declines Stall
The recent declines in gold prices are set for a pause. Price is stabilizing above the 1274 handle. Ahead of a busy week that includes central bank meetings and the US advance GDP reports, gold investors are likely to wait and watch for data. For now, the risk sentiment remains somewhat mixed. But we will get a better idea as the markets open following a long Easter weekend.

XAUUSD Forming an Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern
XAUUSD has been consolidating above the previous lows at 1275. In the process, an inverse head and shoulders is forming with the neckline resistance at 1279.25. With the right shoulder forming, we expect a breakout above the neckline resistance. An expected move to the upside will see gold prices targeting the 1285 level.

Orbex 24-04-2019 08:00

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The USD traded higher on Tuesday, rising to a six-week high. The new home sales report showed a 4.5% increase on a month over month basis, beating estimates of 645,000.

New home sales rose to 692,000 in March. February’s figures were also revised higher to show 662,000 units being sold. The markets await the durable goods orders and Friday’s GDP report.

Euro Slips to a 3-Week Low
The common currency extended declines on Tuesday, losing 0.3%. The eurozone’s consumer confidence report released during the day saw the index falling to -7.9. This was below the estimates of -7.0. Economic data was sparse over the day. The ECB will be releasing its economic bulletin later today.

Can the EURUSD Fall Further?
The EURUSD currency pair fell to a three-week low, briefly slipping below 1.1200 handle. Price managed to recover off the lows, but the overall bias remains to the downside. With the support level of 1.1217 being breached, further downside is expected. The next lower support at 1.1174 could stall the declines temporarily.

Oil Holds Steady at the Top
WTI Crude oil continued to maintain a steady gain as prices rose to fresh yearly highs. Oil prices briefly tested a six-month high of 66.53 before pulling back by the closing session. Uncertainty about supply shortages continues in the oil markets. The onus now falls upon OPEC and Russia to plug the supply shortage from Iran. However, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will act alone in raising production.

Will Crude Oil Rise Further?
Following the strong gains over the past two days, oil prices were seen pulling back from the highs. Price is trading within the resistance area of the 65 – 66 handle. As long we do not see a weekly close above this level, oil prices could consolidate near the highs. Since the rally has been rather strong, there hasn’t been any pullback so far. Therefore, oil prices could post a correction in the near term. The initial support is seen at 64.55.

Gold Prices Fall as Risk Appetite Gains
The precious metal resumed the declines on Tuesday amid an improving risk appetite in the markets. Gold prices eased to a four-month low as the USD bounced back and the equity markets closed near record highs. Spot gold fell 0.1% on the day to hit the lowest levels of $1266 before pulling back.

What’s Next for XAUUSD?
With the precious metal failing to capitalize earlier on its consolidation above 1273, the declines mark further downside. The 200-day EMA has failed to keep a floor on the declines leading to the intraday losses. The next main target for XAUUSD comes in at the 1240 – 1250 handle. This level is very likely to provide support to the downtrend. In the near term, any rebound in prices could still see a move to the 1285 support which can be tested for resistance.

Orbex 25-04-2019 07:37

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting yesterday saw the interest rates unchanged at 1.75%. However, the central bank cut the GDP forecasts for Canada from 1.7% to 1.2% for 2019. The BoC was optimistic that growth would pick up in the second half of the year. The removal of the hawkish forward guidance also weighed on the CAD which fell over 0.5% on the day.

German Business Sentiment Weighs on the Euro
The business sentiment report from Germany came out softer than expected to impact the euro currency. The common currency lost 0.55% on the day as it plunged below the 1.1200 handle. The Ifo institute’s business sentiment report saw the index falling to 99.2 in April from 99.7. Meanwhile, French business sentiment report also weakened.

Euro Slips to 1.115 – What’s next?
The common currency fell sharply on the day and cleared the support level of 1.1200 to test 1.1150. The intraday charts point to a potential recovery, but the gains could be limited in scope. The previous lows of 1.1174 will form the initial resistance followed by 1.1217 which could keep a lid on the recovery, at least for now.

WTI Holds Steady Despite Inventory Build-Up
Crude oil prices held on to the gains albeit posting some modest declines. Overall, crude oil prices remain steady at the top. The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventory report saw an increase of 5.48 million barrels. This was above the estimates of a 1 million increase. The weekly report reversed the drawdown of 1.4 million barrels from the week before. The data comes on top of API’s report showing a 6.9 million increase for the week.

Crude Oil to Remain Bullish in the Near Term
Oil prices retreated from the highs on Wednesday closing with some modest declines on the day. However, we are seeing a reversal of these declines earlier today. Price is likely to attempt and test the previous highs in the range of 66.50 – 66.00. Watch for a weekly close above this level to confirm further upside. Failure to do so could trigger declines to the lower support at 64.55.

Gold Continues to Consolidate Near the 200-day MA
Gold prices were seen trading mixed on Wednesday with prices seen consolidating at the 200-day moving average. The precious metal posted modest gains on the day as price steadily picked up after hitting lows of 1266.25 earlier this week. Friday’s advance GDP report is likely to be the catalyst for setting the momentum in the precious metal.

XAUUSD Looking More Likely for a Retest to 1285
XAUUSD previously eased lower to chalk out fresh lows. However, price has since rebounded with the 200-day moving average offering support. In the short term, price has closed above 1273 handle. Establishing support here could keep gold prices to remain range bound within the 1285 and 1273 corridor. The retest of the 1285 level will be crucial. Further gains can be expected if gold breaks past this level.

Orbex 30-04-2019 07:16

Re: Intraday Technical Analysis April 2019
The US dollar extended declines for a second consecutive day. Economic data on the day was focused on the PCE and personal spending income reports. The Fed meeting due on Wednesday is also weighing on the USD. Meanwhile, the US and China trade talks are progressing.

Officials from Washington note that the trade talks are in the final stages. While this led to a risk on sentiment in the market, the USD remained on the backfoot. End of month portfolio rebalancing could possibly lead to the USD pushing higher in the short term.

Euro Extends Gains as Dollar Weakens
The common currency recovered from last week’s losses. The euro gained 0.37% on Monday. The gains came mostly on a weaker greenback. The US core PCE price index came out flat on the month. Personal spending and income outlays also rose less than forecast, increasing by 0.1% on both counts.

Can the EURUSD Extend the Gains?
The common currency managed to bounce higher after price cleared 1.1140 to establish support. Price briefly dipped to this level on Monday before continuing to push higher on the day. With the recently breached support level at 1.1226, we expect the common currency to establish resistance at this level in the near term.

Oil Prices Remain Under Pressure
Crude oil prices recovered from Friday’s losses, but the downside pressure persists. On Monday, President Trump tweeted that he demanded OPEC to raise supply. He said that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations were in agreement. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the US is taking all measures to ensure supply is not disrupted after Iran’s oil waivers end tomorrow.

WTI Holds on to the Support
Crude oil prices bounced off the support level formed at 62.85 level. However, price action remains weak to the upside. The API crude oil inventory report, due out later today could provide some catalyst to the price action. The resistance level at 64.55 is the likely target to the upside. To the downside, a break down below the support of 62.85 will see crude oil extending declines lower.

Gold Holds Steady Ahead of Fed Meeting
Gold prices were seen trading within the range in a holding pattern ahead of the start of the two-day FOMC meeting today. The outlook for Fed officials remains a lot more clouded amid latest inflation figures showing practically no price pressures. Meanwhile, the economy continues to rise at a steady pace with the labor market remaining the cornerstone of growth.

Will XAUUSD Continue to Consolidate?
Gold prices extended declines, but the daily price action was steady within Friday’s range. This could potentially see prices holding steady ahead of the Fed meeting due on Wednesday. XAUUSD continues to remain buoyed to the upside by the 200-day moving average. As XAUUSD forms the resistance at 1285, price action remains flat for the moment. But a breakout is likely in either direction.

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