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Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

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  #1  
Old 01-03-2019, 07:55
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Default Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

The U.S. dollar maintained strong gains at the close of the last trading day of the month. The markets were somewhat mixed following news that President Trump’s meeting with the North Korean leader ended without results.

On the economic front, Switzerland’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 increased by 0.2%. This was slightly below the consensus estimates of a 0.4% increase. However, the third quarter GDP went down, showing a 0.3% decline during the period.

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From the eurozone, Germany’s import prices fell 0.2% in January. These missed initial estimates of a 0.2% increase. The declines come after import prices fell 1.3% on the month previously. Preliminary inflation reports showed that consumer prices stabilized, rising 0.5% on the month in February and matching estimates. Inflation estimates for France, however, showed an unchanged print. Meanwhile, Spain’s inflation was at 1.1% for the year, according to preliminary estimates.

The NY trading session saw the release of the fourth quarter GDP report. Beating estimates, GDP advanced 2.6% during the three months ending December. Economists expected GDP to rise just 2.2%. The third quarter GDP lowered to show a 3.4% increase. The GDP price index gained 1.8% which was also above estimates.

Chicago PMI data showed that the index rose to 64.7, following a soft reading of 56.7 the month before.

The markets look to the first trading day of March. The Asian trading session showed that the Tokyo core CPI rose 1.1%. Economists polled forecast a 1.0% increase on the year.

The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell had been speaking at an event earlier in the day.

The European trading session will see the release of the manufacturing PMI report coming out. The manufacturing sector is expected to remain weak with the index forecast to fall below the 50-level at 49.2. This would signal a contraction in the manufacturing activity.

The UK’s manufacturing PMI could likely hold steady, easing to 52.0 from 52.8 in January. Flash inflation estimates from the eurozone will follow this data, with headline inflation is likely to rise by 1.5%. This would mark a modest increase from 1.4% previously. Core inflation will most probably hold steady at 1.1% on the year.

Data from Canada will see the monthly GDP report which could show no change during the month. From the U.S. the core PCE price index report is forecast to rise 0.2% on the month while personal spending and income could likely rise 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.

The ISM will be releasing its manufacturing PMI later in the day, which could ease to 56.0 after rising to 56.6 in January.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1373): The EURUSD currency pair was retracing the gains from the previous sessions yesterday. Price action remains flat in the medium to long term, and the retracement could see prices falling back to the 1.1327 level of support in the near term. With the resistance level at 1.1435 being established and yet to be tested, we expect the common currency to remain subdued into next week. This will be as the ECB meeting is due to be held. In the near term, the support level at 1.1327 – 1.1309 is likely to see price action forming a base. As long as this support holds, the EURUSD will remain range-bound with the bias to the upside likely to be tested in the near term. If the currency pair slips below the support level, then EURUSD could ease lower toward 1.1256.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.66): The USDJPY currency pair maintains its bullish moment. Price action broke past the sideways range formed between 111.31 and 109.74. The breakout to the upside could see the USDJPY retesting the level to establish support at 111.31. Such a move could potentially make way for further gains in the currency pair. The next main resistance to the upside comes in at the 112.50 level. This previously served as support before price broke past it.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1312.65): Gold prices extended strong declines for the second consecutive day. After clearing the support level at 1321.58, price briefly tested intraday highs of 1327.18 before pulling back. On the 4-hour chart, we expect the declines could push lower to the minor support level at 1306 level. A rebound off this level could see gold prices retracting back to the breached support level at 1321.58. This would potentially create a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline support at 1306. It could also set the stage for further declines. Alternately, a continuation to the downside will see gold prices extending the declines to the 1300 round number support.
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  #2  
Old 04-03-2019, 08:25
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

The U.S. dollar maintained its lead on Friday as most of the currencies turned weak by Friday’s close.

Economic data on the day saw the release of Germany’s retail sales which increased 3.3% on the month in January on nominal terms. In real terms, retail sales advanced by 2.6% in January. This beat the 1.9% increase forecast for the period.

December’s retail sales from Germany were revised lower to show a 3.1% decline compared to previous estimates of a 4.3% drop. The rebound came after a dismal performance in the month before.

IHS Markit released the monthly PMI reports covering the manufacturing sector. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, slightly better than 49.2 from the flash estimates. However, it still showed that the manufacturing sector was in contraction. The declines mostly came from Germany whose manufacturing sector was at 47.6.

The UK’s manufacturing PMI showed that activity eased to 52.0 in February. This was slower than January’s 52.6

Flash inflation estimates for February from the eurozone showed that consumer prices advanced slightly higher to 1.5%, from 1.4% in January this year. The data was somewhat encouraging after inflation eased strongly in the months before. The eurozone’s core inflation rate was estimated to have eased to 1.0% in February, down from 1.1% in January.

The NY trading session saw Canada’s GDP falling 0.1% which pushed the annualized GDP rate to 0.4%. This was the slowest pace of increase in Canada’s GDP in nearly two years. The data is likely to see the BoC hold rates steady when it meets this week.

From the US, consumer spending fell 0.5% in December. The Core PCE price index gained 0.2% on the month as expected. It was, however, the combined estimates for December and January.

Personal income was down 0.1%. Wages increased 0.3 percent in January after rising 0.5 percent in December. Meanwhile. the ISM’s manufacturing PMI for February fell to 54.2 against expectations of an unchanged print at 53.7 from January. Manufacturing prices paid fell to 49.4, missing estimates of a 51.6 increase from December’s 49.6.

Looking ahead, the economic data today saw the release of Australia’s building approvals. Data showed that building approvals rose 2.5%. Economists forecast that building approvals would rise 1.5% on the month after falling 8.4% the month before.

The European trading session is quiet with the release of the Sentix investor confidence. Expectations are for the data to show that Sentix investor confidence moderated to -3.1 from -3.7 previously. Later in the day, the producer price index data will be coming out from the eurozone. The forecast PPI increase is 0.4%, following the previous 0.8% easing.

From the NY trading session, we are only expecting the US construction to come out.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1373): The EURUSD currency pair maintained its choppy range as price action was seen declining off the intraday highs around 1.1407. The declines mark a choppy movement in prices. Despite the modest increase in price, the EURUSD remains subdued. In fact, it is likely to test the downside. Support could be coming in at 1.1327 – 1.1309 which may be tested in the near term as the bullish momentum is seemingly impossible to maintain. This comes as the trend line has been breached and Friday’s price action tested the breakout quickly. As a result, the price action confirms the downside.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.94): The pair posted strong gains on Friday as the USDJPY cleared past the resistance level and maintained gains, settling on Friday at 111.87. With the resistance level at 111.26 cleared, any dips are likely to stall at this level. Establishing support here could confirm the upside in USDJPY as the currency pair attempts to test the upside toward 112.50 region in the near term.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1312.65): Gold prices extended strong declines on Friday marking the week with three consecutive daily declines. Price action tested the 1300 level and eased slightly lower only to settle back above the 1300 level. The support level at 1306 looks to be holding out for the moment. This could potentially put pressure on prices to the upside. We continue to watch price action possibly evolve into a head and shoulders pattern. The right shoulder is likely to form near the resistance level at 1321.58 region.
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  #3  
Old 05-03-2019, 07:59
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

The US dollar posted strong gains amid a risk on sentiment which saw the safe-haven assets losing ground. Meanwhile, commodities such as gold and silver extended strong declines on the day.

Economic data was relatively quiet on Monday. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence improved, with the index rising to -2.2, beating estimates of -3.1. In the UK, construction PMI fell to 49.5, marking a contraction in the sector.

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The NY trading session saw the release of construction spending which posted a decline of 0.6%. This was worse than the forecast of 0.2% and dropped from 0.8% in the month before.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its monetary policy meeting earlier today. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 1.50%. The decision to leave rates unchanged comes ahead of key economic reports due later during the week.

The European trading session will kick off today with IHS Markit releasing the monthly services PMI reports. Expectations are for the eurozone services PMI to remain steady at 52.3, but we can expect the Italian and French services sectors to post a contraction.

As for the UK’s services PMI, expectations are for a decline to the 50.0 level on the index. This marks a modest drop in activity from 50.1 in January. Forecasts indicate that retail sales for the eurozone may show an increase of 1.3% after they fell 1.6% in the month before.

The NY trading session will see the release of ISM’s services PMI report. The non-manufacturing activity is expected to rise to 57.4 in February, up from 56.7 in January. Later in the day, the BoE governor, Mark Carney is scheduled to speak.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1328): The EURUSD currency closed on a bearish note yesterday following the previous two days of consolidation. Price is back near the support level of the 1.1327 region. With the support being tested once again, there is scope for further downside. A break down below 1.1327 – 1.1309 could signal further losses that could send the euro currency lower to the 1.1256 level of support. In the longer term, the EURUSD remains range bound.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.89): The USDJPY traded somewhat muted on Monday. Price action closed bearish, but the overall momentum remains to the upside. The bullish momentum remains in place with the USDJPY likely to target the resistance level at 112.50. A retest of this level to establish resistance will mark the completion to the upside. Alternately, with the recently breached resistance level at 111.21 exposed, the downside could bring the USDJPY to test this level of support.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1288.35): Gold prices extended declines for the fifth consecutive daily session. Price action closed near intraday lows of 1282.74 before slightly pulling back higher. We expect the bearish momentum to continue pushing gold prices lower toward the 1280 handle where support is most likely to be established. Following the test of support near the 1280 level, there is scope for gold to rebound in the short term. The breached support at 1305.72 remains a key level where resistance could be tested. However, if gold prices exceed the current level, further gains could push prices toward the 1321.60 level which would mark the breakout from the rising median line.
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  #4  
Old 06-03-2019, 07:54
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

The U.S. dollar posted strong gains on the day as commodities such as gold and silver continued to extend the declines.

China announced that it was targeting a GDP growth rate of 6.0-6.5% for 2019. It raised the budget deficit to 2.8% from 2.6% last year, while announcing fiscal easing measures. These included planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

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On the economic front, the eurozone services PMI rebounded sharply in February. Services activity rose to a four-month high to 52.8 in February. This surpassed the initial flash estimates of 52.3.

The gains came with Italian and French services PMI posting results that were stronger than expected. Retail sales also remained in line with expectations, rising 1.3% following a 1.4% decline previously.

In the UK, the services sector activity rose to 51.3 after falling to 50.3 in January.

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 59.7, beating estimates of 57.4. It marked a one-year high. Meanwhile, IHS Markit’s services PMI also rose to a seven-month high.

New home sales report for December showed a strong increase, rising 3.7% on the month to a seasonally adjusted 621,000. The median estimates called for a decline to 605,000. On a yearly basis, new home sales were down 2.4% compared to the same period the year before.

The European trading session is relatively quiet. The NY trading session starts off with Canada’s trade balance figures and labor productivity data.

The Central Banks
Following the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday, the quarterly GDP report was released this morning during the Asian trading session. The fourth quarter GDP in Australia rose by 0.2%. Economists forecast that GDP would increase by 0.5% during the quarter, up from 0.3% from the previous quarter.

The BoC will be holding its monetary policy meeting later in the day. We can expect no changes, as the BoC will keep interest rates held at 1.75%. Canada’s Ivey PMI report is due following the BoC meeting.

Fed members, Williams and Saunders, are due to speak later in the evening. The speeches come ahead of the Fed meeting due later in the month.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1297): The EURUSD currency pair was seen extending the declines on Tuesday. Price action closed below the support area of 1.1327 – 1.1309 before modestly pulling back. The bearish close below the support suggests further declines in store. The lower support at 1.1256 will be the most likely target to the downside. This would keep the common currency range bound within the longer term, while the decline to 1.1256 will see prices retesting the lows from mid-February this year.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.75): The USDJPY price action is suggesting some exhaustion to the rally. Price action has stalled its upside momentum near the highs of 111.89. If price starts to correct, then we expect USDJPY to slip briefly to the 111.21 level where support could be reestablished. This would eventually open the way for the USDJPY to post further gains in an attempt to target the next main resistance at 12.50.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1287.42): Gold prices closed with some modest gains on the day although price action remained bearish. This comes after prices declined for four consecutive sessions daily. The technical pattern indicates a near term correction that could take place if there is a bullish follow through to the upside today. However, there is a risk of gold prices testing the support at 1280 more firmly. To the upside, we expect the price level of 1304 – 1305 to be tested for resistance with the potential for a move higher toward the 1320 – 1321 level.
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  #5  
Old 07-03-2019, 08:09
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

The U.S. dollar maintained the bullish momentum although the pace of gains was somewhat smaller. On the economic front, the data from the eurozone was relatively quiet.

NY Trading Session
The NY trading session saw the February private payrolls rising just 183k. This was below estimates of a 190k increase. The previous month’s payrolls were revised to 300k.

The balance of trade figures showed that the U.S. posted a trade definition of $59 billion for December. This was higher than November’s deficit of $50.3 billion. Excluding the services sector, the trade deficit rose 10% to $891.25 billion, the largest on record so far.

The NY trading session will see Fed Member, Brainard speaking


BOC
The Bank of Canada held its monetary policy meeting last week. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged.

In fact, the BOC issued a rather dovish outlook on the global economy and the risks to Canada’s growth. Following the release of the interest rate decision, the Ivey PMI report showed that the index eased to 50.6, missing estimates of an increase to 55.1.

Australia
The economic data from Australia continues with the Asian trading session showing that retail sales rose 0.1%.

Economists forecast that retail sales would rise 0.3% on the month after declining 0.4% previously. Trade balance figures were also released, as the data showed trade balance expanding to 4.5 billion, up from 3.77 billion previously.

Europe
The European trading session will see the release of Switzerland’s unemployment data. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 2.4%. The eurozone’s final fourth-quarter GDP report will be coming out.

Economists forecast no change to the GDP, maintaining the confirmed 0.2% quarterly growth rate. We can expect the eurozone’s final employment change for the quarter to show a 0.3% increase as previously forecast.

The ECB’s monetary policy meeting will be the main highlight for today. The central bank is not expected to make any major changes to its monetary policy. However, there is speculation that the central bank could be dovish in its forward guidance as it contemplates relaunching the TLTRO program.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1304): The EURUSD currency pair traded below the support area of the 1.1327 – 1.1309 region. Price action has been muted as the lower support level near 1.1256 remains a key target to the downside. Failure to extend the declines could keep the common currency trading flat near the support area. If there is a rebound to the upside, then the EURUSD could push higher to extend the gains toward the previous highs at the 1.1381 region. This would be followed by a move toward the main resistance area of 1.1435.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.68): The USDJPY currency pair has stalled the upside momentum. Price action has failed to post any significant gains. However, we could expect the trend to resume in the near term. This would push the USDJPY to test the next main target at 112.50. Failure to maintain the bullish trend could see the USDJPY easing back to test the breached resistance level at 111.21 where support could be firmly established. This would still see the USDJPY maintaining the upside bias as a result.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1287.42): Gold prices settled into a doji pattern for the last two daily sessions. This pattern forms just above the support level at 1281.15. The flat price action is likely to see either the bearish trend resuming, which would mean that price will have to break past the support level at 1281.15, or a retracement. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes near the resistance level that is likely to be tested at the 1306 – 1304 region while a deeper retracement could mean that gold prices will test the next resistance level at the 1321 – 1318 region.
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  #6  
Old 08-03-2019, 07:48
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis March 2019

The Euro currency fell sharply on the day following the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. The central bank announced the launch of TLTRO program starting September with two-year maturity. The central bank also gave a dovish forward guidance with lower growth forecasts.

The ECB cut Eurozone’s growth to 1.1% for 2019. This was a lower projection after December’s estimates of 1.7%. The central bank left interest rates steady.

The final employment change for the fourth quarter was seen at 0.3% for the Eurozone, with no revisions from the previous estimates. Final GDP held steady at 0.2% for the three months ending December 2018.

In the NY trading session, Canada’s building permits fell 5.5% on the month, missing estimates of a 4.8% decline and weakening from 6.4% increase previously.

U.S. productivity grew 1.9% at the end of last year, beating estimates of a 1.8% increase. Productivity was seen averaging 1.3% since 2007 until last year. Annual unit labor costs rose 2.0% in the fourth quarter.

The overnight trading session saw New Zealand’s manufacturing sales report coming out. Data showed that for the fourth quarter of 2018, manufacturing sales fell 0.5%, following a downward revised print of 1.8% for the third quarter of 2018.

Earlier today, Japan’s revised GDP reports were released. Data showed that the fourth quarter GDP rose 0.5%, slightly up from a 0.4% increase that was estimated previously. The fourth quarter GDP increased from 0.3% in the third quarter.

The European trading session will kick off with Germany’s factory orders report. Data is expected to show that factory orders rose 0.5%, after falling 1.6% the month before. Industrial production figures from France and Italy are due later in the day.

The NY trading session will see the release of Canada’s employment report. Canada is forecast to add 0.3k jobs in February while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.8%. The U.S payrolls report is due later.

Economists expect headline payrolls to rise 181k in February, following a 304k increase in January. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.0% previously while the average hourly earnings could rise 0.3% during the month in February.

Later in the day, building permits and housing starts data will be coming out.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1195): The EURUSD currency pair posted strong declines on Thursday after the ECB’s meeting. Following the dovish comments from Draghi, the euro broke the support level of 1.1256 and extended declines down to 1.1200 level briefly. Price action at the moment looks bearish. If there is a bearish follow through from here on, we could expect the common currency to continue extending the declines even further below with the next support seen at 1.1150.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.28): The USDJPY currency pair has retraced the gains after rallying to 112.04 level. The current declines has pushed the currency pair to test the previously established resistance level for support at 111.21. If this support holds, the USDJPY could be seen revering the declines and attempt to push higher. However, as long as the previous highs are not breached, the currency pair could remain range bound showing weakness to the upside.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1287.42): After gold prices formed a doji pattern for three consecutive sessions, price action is likely to signal a breakout from this range. The lower support at 1280 is likely to be breached to the downside. The support has been tested briefly twice and price action swiftly retraced the losses. To the upside, 1291.00 has formed as a minor resistance level. A breakout from this level to the upside will trigger a correction that could push gold prices toward 1306 level initially.
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  #7  
Old 12-03-2019, 08:02
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The US dollar extended declines for a second daily session. Economic data on the day was relatively sparse. The euro traded subdued while gold prices weakened on the day.

Germany
German industrial production figures showed a disappointing print. Industrial production fell 0.8% on the month in January 2019. This was well below the estimates of a 0.5% increase and down from December’s 0.8% expansion. Most of the declines were attributed to a slump in the automobile industry.

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NY Trading Session
The NY trading session saw U.S. retail sales recovering from the decline in December. Headline retail sales increased 0.2% on the month against estimates of a flat print. Core retail sales rose 0.9%, beating estimates of a 0.4% increase. However, December’s core retail sales were revised lower to show a 2.1% decline. Meanwhile, headline retail sales for December underwent a revision to 1.6% declines.

Today’s Schedule
The economic data today kicks off with the European session starting with the UK’s GDP figures. Economists forecast that the GDP will advance 0.2% in January. The data comes following a 0.4% decline in the previous period.

Besides the GDP data, the UK’s manufacturing, industrial and construction output reports will also be released. The data is, however, likely to be overshadowed by the Brexit vote due later in the evening.

Brexit

The parliamentary vote comes a few weeks before the UK is expected to exit out of the EU. The general perception is for the UK parliament to reject the Brexit bill once again.

Overnight newswires reported that PM May managed to clinch a last-minute deal with EU’s Juncker giving renewed hopes of an brexit agreement. In a late night news conference, the British PM said:

“Today we have secured legal changes.”

This served as her announcement of the joint deal and unilateral decision addressing the Irish backstop agreement. The GBP surged 2% on the news overnight.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1256): The euro currency posted gains for the second daily session after previously falling to lows of 1.1175. The common currency is posting a hidden bearish divergence near the resistance level that is being tested at 1.1256. A reversal to the downside could push the euro lower to 1.1212. A rebound off this level will confirm that the bottom is in place. To the upside, a breakout above 1.1256 will confirm further gains to 1.1309 – 1.1327 resistance area.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.40): The USDJPY posted a modest correction after prices touched lows of 110.87. However, with price closing bullish on the day, a follow-through from here could confirm the upside. The USDJPY will now need to break past the previous highs of 112.13. This will potentially keep the bullish momentum intact, pushing the USDJPY to test the resistance area of 112.50. However, failure to maintain the gains could come at a risk of the USDJPY breaking lower with the support at 109.74 likely to be the downside target.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1296.27): Gold posted modest declines on Monday following Friday’s bullish close. However, price action managed to recover these declines during the early trading session today. The reversal came after gold briefly tested the support at 1290.50 level. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics is showing that momentum is building up. This could potentially keep gold biased to the upside. In the short term, the previous highs at 1300.80 need to be breached to confirm the continuation to the upside. The next main target is at the 1305 level, followed by a correction toward the 1319 – 1322 region.
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Old 13-03-2019, 09:45
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Economic reports from the UK showed that the GDP rose 0.2% in the three months to January. On a quarterly basis, the economy picked up the pace, rising 0.5%. The gains came from an increase in IT, health services and wholesale trading. This offset the declines from manufacturing in metals, cars and construction repairs.

Manufacturing production rose 0.8% on the month beating estimates of a 0.2% increase. The gains came from increased output in the pharmaceuticals industry and followed a 0.7% decline.

Industrial production grew 0.6% from December after falling 0.5% previously. The data also beat estimates. The services output rose 0.3% while construction output grew 2.8% and reversed the declines from December.

Investors, however, overlooked the data as the UK parliament once again rejected the Brexit deal despite initial optimism. The Brexit bill was defeated by a majority of 142, with 391 members rejecting the deal and 242 approving it.

In the US, data from the Bureau of Labor statistics showed that February’s headline inflation rose 0.2% as expected. This pushed down the annual inflation rate from 1.6% to 1.5% in February. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.1%. This was the smallest increase since August last year.


Today’s Schedule
The economic data today will see the release of the UK’s annual budget. We now await the UK parliament to hold another vote on a no-deal Brexit later in the day.

Economic docket from the eurozone is quiet today. The NY trading session will see the release of durable goods orders. Core durable goods are forecast to rise 0.1% on the month. Meanwhile, headline durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.5% on the month.

The US PPI report is on the tap as well. Expectations are for headline producer prices to rise 0.2% after falling 0.1% previously. Core PPI will likely rise 0.2%, marking a slightly smaller pace of increase following a 0.3% increase the month before.

Forecasts indicate that construction spending data could rise by 0.4% on the month after falling 0.6% previously.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1282): The EURUSD currency pair continued its bullish reversal with prices advancing for the third daily session. Having cleared the minor resistance level at 1.1256, the common currency closed above this level. It is now nearing a retest of the next main resistance at 1.1327 – 1.1309. In the near term, any declines could be limited to 1.1256 where we could establish support. As long as the support level at 1.1256 is not breached, the EURUSD could maintain the bullish momentum.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.28): USDJPY has been trading subdued with a lot of consolidation taking place at the 111.21 level. Price action remains flat in the short term as the USD attempts to test the next main resistance level at 111.69. Price needs to break past this level and above the previous highs to maintain the bullish momentum. However, failure to do so could signal a possible move to the downside. A break down below the lows of 110.93 could signal a move towards the 109.74 region in the medium term.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1305.02): Gold maintained the gains on Tuesday as price action advanced to test 1305 level earlier today. The Stochastics oscillator is maintaining the hidden bearish divergence currently and could trigger a possible move to the downside. The lower support at 1290.39 could be tested more firmly if there is a reversal at the 1305 – 1306 level. If gold maintains the bullish momentum, we can expect the 1305 – 1306 level to clear, with further gains likely to push gold prices to the 1322 – 1319 level. There, resistance will be tested.
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  #9  
Old 14-03-2019, 09:11
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The UK parliament rejected a no-deal Brexit on Thursday evening. This leads to speculation that the UK might formally ask the EU for an extension to the March 29 Brexit deadline, putting further uncertainty into the UK’s exit from the EU. However, the news sent the British pound surging.

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Europe
The eurozone’s industrial production figures improved as activity expanded at a pace of 1.4% on a month over month basis in January. This beat expectations of a 1.0% increase. And, the January’s gains reversed the declines of 0.8% in December.

US
Data from the U.S. showed core durable goods orders falling 0.1% against estimates of a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, headline durable goods orders rose 0.4% against estimates of a 0.5% decline. The durable goods orders rose for a third consecutive month in January. But, the pace of increase was slower compared to that of December at 1.3%.

Producer prices index data showed a 0.1% increase compared to estimates of a 0.2% increase. Core PPI was up 0.1% again, missing estimates of a 0.2% increase for February. Construction spending was up 1.3% in January, beating conservative estimates of a 0.4% increase. This was up from a 0.8% decline from the month before.

The US dollar, however, traded weaker despite the strong economic reports.

Asian Session
The Asian trading session today showed that China’s industrial production rose 5.3% in the first two months of the year. This was a slower pace of increase compared to the forecasts of a 5.5% increase. Retail sales in China rose 8.2%, marking the same pace of increase as the month before.

Today’s Schedule
The European trading session will see the release of the final monthly CPI figures from Germany. Economists forecast that inflation will rise 0.5% on the month, the same as the flash estimates. French inflation is due later today, and we expect it to show an unchanged print.

The NY trading session will see the release of the import price data. Import prices are expected to rise 0.3% on the month, following a 0.5% decline previously. This is later followed by the new home sales report which is expected to show a modest increase of 622k, up from 621k previously.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1316): The EURUSD currency maintained gains as price action rallied to highs of 1.1327 – 1.1309. With the resistance level likely holding the gains, the common currency could push lower. A retest of the minor support at 1.1256 may establish in the near term. As long as this support holds, the bias remains to the upside, subject to the EURUSD breaking past the resistance level. This will potentially shift the bias to the upside with the next target coming in at 1.1400.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.58): The USDJPY, after a brief consolidation near 111.21 is extending the gains to the upside. Price action is close to test the previously breached support at 111.70 level. Establishing resistance at this level could potentially see the currency pair reversing direction. In the near term, USDJPY could trade sideways within 111.70 and 111.21 levels. A downside breakout will accelerate the declines toward 109.74 level of support.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1304.08): Gold prices advanced on Wednesday as price action tested highs of 1308. However, by early this morning in the Asian trading session, the precious metal gave up the gains. A reversal today could potentially see gold prices extending the declines lower. The lower target is at 1290.40 where support will be tested more firmly. Alternately, if prices maintain support near the current level of 1304.11, then we could expect to see further gains. These could push gold prices to test the previously breached support level at the 1322 – 1319 region, where resistance is pending a retest.
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Old 15-03-2019, 08:41
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EURUSD Retreats From 10-day High
Following a 3-day streak, eurodollar finally saw a rejection at $1.1340. German inflation CPI data added a negative sentiment to the pair, which provided investors with sell opportunities. Despite an array of poor US data releases which were expected to shift appetite, the pair remained near $1.13 for the rest of yesterday’s session.


Will EURUSD Correct Lower?
EURUSD ($1.1320): It seems that the 3-session long impulse wave saw an end on Thursday. We can now expect prices to correct a little lower, provided the ascending trendline weakens. The slide down to the first corrective wave (a), indicates that there is room to move lower near wave (c) zone. This must follow the wave (b) completion to the upside, which seems nearly done.



GBPUSD Falls Despite Article 50 Extension
With parliament supporting an extension of the Brexit date, market participants expected to see prices reacting positively to the critical news. Instead, the pair fell from a 9-month high of $1.3380, plummeting over a hundred pips against the dollar. Perhaps investors don’t think PM May’s suggestion of a June deadline will be enough.

Should we Expect a Rise?
GBPUSD ($1.3250): Pound was rejected near $1.3224 on Thursday. As a previous high, this level is likely to maintain the bullish bias intact. However, the bearish divergence seen on the MACD could push prices lower for a deeper correction. From a bullish perspective, there is room to move higher towards the $1.34 and $1.3540 extensions. This would complete wave (v) of the impulse upside wave.



Gold Correction Continues on Trade Optimism
Despite the reversal seen near $1312 on Wednesday, prices head back up. Chinese data supported the bearish move as the economy continues to print problematic figures. Positive trade war narratives, however, supported the rejection at $1300. President Trump reported that he expects a trade deal with China within the next four weeks.

Will Gold Move Higher?
Since we are still completing a bearish cycle, there’s a good chance that corrective wave (c) sees an end a tad higher. A magnet zone is set near $1320/1325, as a confluence between the bearish golden ratio and bullish golden extension is seen around those levels. Meanwhile, bulls could be attracted by the ascending trendline of the open triangle pattern that may end near the critical magnet zone too. That could help the impulse wave (v) in completing the bullish move and start correcting.
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Old 18-03-2019, 08:42
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The euro posted modest gains on Friday as price action settled near March 13 highs of 1.1329, forming a double top pattern. The gains came as final inflation figures for February showed that consumer prices rose 1.5% on the headline. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 1.0% as seen from the flash estimates a few weeks ago.

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EURUSD could extend lower


If the current double top pattern is validated, then a break down below 1.1289 could trigger declines in the common currency. The minimum downside objective is at 1.1268, but price could extend lower to retest support near 1.1251 level. This comes as various oscillators are singling a hidden bearish divergence giving support to the downside move.

USDJPY Loses Momentum as Trade Talks Continue
The March deadline for the US-China trade talks is likely to be extended with no clear outcome from the negotiations held so far. Reports from China showed that the vice-Premier, Liu He spoke to US Treasury secretary Mnuchin and with other trade representatives. Meanwhile, the Chinese premier retired the government’s policies to support growth including tax cuts.

USDJPY Showing Exhaustion Near the Top


The USDJPY currency pair posted a rebound last week, and this sent prices briefly higher. However, failure to break past the March 5th highs at 112.13 resulted in the USDJPY posting a lower high. A follow through to the downside from here could put USDJPY at risk of retesting the lower support at 109.83. However, price will need to clear past the initial support at 111.40 level for the downside to be validated.

Gold Trades Subdued, Awaiting Global Cues
Gold prices closed last week with some bullish gains, extending the modest gains for the second consecutive week. But the reversal remains far off from recovering the declines from two weeks ago. China-US trade talks remain the central theme and this week’s FOMC meeting is another factor that is keeping gold prices steady for the moment.

What’s next for gold?


After the breakdown, gold prices bounced off the support at 1290.37 leading to a reversal in the declines. Gold initially tested highs of 1311.14 before easing back last week to recover the declines. This has resulted in what could be a possible head and shoulders pattern.

A break down off the inclined neckline support could validate this bearish pattern which could see gold extending declines to 1284.63. Alternately, a breakout above the current resistance at 1306.00 could see gold likely to continue its correction to the upside, eventually reaching out to 1320 level.
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Old 19-03-2019, 12:16
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A number of ongoing global narratives kept a lid on the markets with USD trading subdued ahead of major events this week. These include the two-day FOMC meeting starting today and ending tomorrow, and the Brexit narrative.

The GBP remained volatile as the Brexit deadline inches closer with no real progress made. Economic data on Monday was relatively sparse. Oil prices spiked on news that OPEC reported higher conformity to production cuts. This sent NYMEX Crude oil futures to rise 1% on the day to $59.09.




EURUSD Invalidates the Double Top Pattern
The common currency invalidated the double top pattern that was formed by last Friday’s close with the currency pair rising 0.10% on the day. The breakout to the upside came against a weaker greenback. Data from the eurozone was quiet with only the release of the monthly report from the German Bundesbank. The report painted a bleak picture as officials acknowledged a weaker pace of growth in the first quarter of the year.

Will The Euro Advance Gains?
The upside breakout from 1.1329 resistance could eventually push the common currency to test the multi-month falling trend line which is likely to act as dynamic resistance around the 1.1400 level. The overall price action in the EURUSD remains quite choppy. The recent gains have shown a sharp recovery as price rose at the same pace of declines as before.



Yen Advances as Investors Turn Cautious
The Japanese yen was trading modestly stronger against the USD on Monday rising 0.03%. USDJPY continued to retreat following a rally to a 3-month high of 112.12 earlier this month. Trade balance figures released on Monday showed that exports fell for the third consecutive month in February due to easing global demand for goods. Official data showed that exports fell 1.2% on the year, extending the 8,4% annualized decline in January.

Will USDJPY Turn Bearish?
The USDJPY currency pair was trading subdued on Monday with price action closing within a small range but bearish. This marks a second consecutive day of declines in the currency pair. A bearish follow through today could signal a move to the downside. Given that prices failed near the resistance level of 111.40, the USDJPY could extend the declines lower to the 109.84 level at the very least in the near term.



Gold Advances on Falling Risk Appetite
Gold prices were trading mixed on Monday but price quickly recovered towards the close of business. The gains come as the global risk sentiment remains mixed. Themes such as the Fed’s forward guidance and the outcome of the Brexit talks have kept risk appetite in check. This led to gold making modest gains, tracking higher yields in the U.S. bond markets.

Can XAUUSD Maintain the Momentum?
At the time of writing, XAUUSD is breaking past the 1306 level while forming a minor ascending triangle pattern. This comes as the precious metal advanced 0.13% on the day on Monday. The upside breakout, if successful, could send gold prices higher as they test the upper resistance level of 1320 – 1321 level. This would potentially mark a retest of the level which previously served as support.
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Old 19-03-2019, 15:57
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really enjoyed reading all of this... very insightful and beneficial. i look forward to seeing more of your posts !!!
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Old 20-03-2019, 08:22
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The US dollar, which was trading subdued the past few days held steady ahead of the FOMC meeting today. The Fed will be releasing its economic projections and dot plot summary alongside the press conference.

The US factory orders report released on Tuesday showed a 0.1% increase in January while durable goods orders rose 0.3% in January. A minor risk-off sentiment continues in the markets, with US bonds prices dipping lower.



EURUSD Firm on Dollar Weakness
The euro currency gained 0.13% on the day despite a panel of economists lowering Germany’s growth forecasts. Expectations are for Germany’s growth to rise 0.8% for 2019, compared to 1.5% forecast previously. Experts cited Brexit and trade disputes as the main risks. However, the German ZEW Economic sentiment index released yesterday showed that optimism was back. This came as the index rose to the highest level of -3.3 this year after falling to -13.4 last month.

Will EURUSD Continue Its Winning Streak?
The common currency has managed to post gains for the past three sessions. However, momentum is easing as the currency pair is likely to fall back to 1.1329 to establish support once again. As long as it does not breach this level, EURUSD could attempt to break out higher once again. The main resistance at 1.1390 – 1.1400 could be reached in the near term.



USDJPY Closes Flat on The Day
The USDJPY was seen trading flat on Tuesday with the yen advancing just 0.04% against the greenback. The sentiment continues to remain in check with the Fed and Brexit themes keeping the risk appetite on the back foot. The BoJ’s monetary policy minutes were released earlier today which has helped the greenback post modest gains during the Asian trading session.

Will USDJPY Breakout From The Consolidation?
The currency pair has been trading rather flat above the 111.40 level of support after previously reaching highs of 112.11. The USD got a boost earlier today from the BoJ’s minutes. However, the USDJPY is yet to post any meaningful highs. The resistance level of 111.98 will remain the key upside target in the short term. A breakout above this level would be needed for the currency pair to test the next main level of 112.51.



XAUUSD Maintains Three-Day Winning Streak
The precious metal continued to post some modest gains, rising 0.21% on the day amid the prevailing risk-off sentiment. Brexit developments continue to remain in the forefront with the UK seeking to extend the Article 50 extension from March 29 to end of June.

Can Gold Continue the Upside?
The XAUUSD’s gains have been somewhat modest. Price action hasn’t quite cleared the resistance level of 1306. And, despite an intraday breakout, price settled back below this level. This possibly indicates some weakness around this level. A bearish close today could send gold prices lower to retest the support at 1284.63. While to the upside, the resistance level at 1320 – 1321 remains within reach.

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Old 21-03-2019, 08:32
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The USD was trading weaker on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting yesterday saw the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged. The Fed also signaled no rate hikes this year according to the dot plot projections. As expected, they also cut economic projections with the US GDP now forecast to rise just 2.1%.


EURUSD Reaches a 6-week High
The euro tested a six-week high earlier today, adding to the 0.66% gains made by yesterday’s close. Economic data from the eurozone was spare, with only the German PPI reporting coming out. Producer prices fell 0.1% missing estimates, but the news did not impact the currency at all.

Can the Euro Maintain the Gains?
The common currency broke past the major trend line in the early Asian trading session today. The break of the trend line saw price action turning a bit subdued near the top. Given the nature of the breach of the trend line, it is not quite convincing as yet. Therefore, the euro could pull back in the near term. A close below the trend line may see the EURUSD retesting 1.1394 level.



Risk Appetite in Check as Yen Rises
The Japanese yen rose sharply yesterday, gaining 0.68% on the day. This reflects the market’s risk appetite. UK Prime Minister May wrote a formal letter to the EU seeking a delay to the country’s exit from the EU. The UK is expected to leave the EU on March 29th. The extension will be discussed at the EU parliament today.

Will USDJPY Extend Declines Further?
Following the breakdown of prices near 111.40 level of support/resistance, the USDJPY currency pair fell sharply. This has sent prices close to testing the rising trend line from the lows of early January this year through the end of January. We can anticipate the USDJPY to briefly breach the trend line and test the lower support at 109.84 level in the short term. But we can rule out further gains below this support for the moment.



Gold Jumps on Fed Minutes
Gold prices rose 0.57% on the day, extending the gains for four consecutive daily sessions. The gains came as the Fed signaled that it would keep interest rates steady at its meeting yesterday evening. Ahead of the Fed meeting, gold prices maintained a steady upside.

What is the Next Target for XAUUSD?
With the current bullish momentum, gold prices will most likely target the 1320 – 1322 level of resistance. This would mark a retest of this level which served as resistance previously. A reversal off this level is required in order to confirm the resistance. In the near term, any pullbacks ahead of the rally to 1320 – 1321 will be seen as bullish in the short term.

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Old 22-03-2019, 08:25
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The ICE US dollar index gained 0.6% reversing the declines from Thursday. President Trump said that the tariffs on China will stay for a significant period of time despite negotiations resuming next week. However, Washington noted it would be removing the tariffs in stages but could re-impose them upon violation of the trade agreement.


Risk Appetite Rises Following the Fed Meeting
After the FOMC signaled that there would not be further rate hikes this year, safe haven assets rallied. However, the gains were quickly reversed a day later as risk appetite found its way back. Equities posted strong gains with safe haven assets reversing the gains from the previous day as a result.

Can USDJPY Hold the Trend Line?
The dollar slipped as the currency pair briefly tested the rising trend line after breaking below the price level of 111.40. Price action was rejected strongly near the trend line, allowing USDJPY to pullback slightly higher. However, we could expect to see the bearish momentum resuming, in which case, the currency pair could extend to the lower support at 109.84.



Sterling Volatility Continues
The British pound continued to trade with volatility as the currency initially slipped to lows of $1.3000 before pulling back with some gains. Volatility rose as UK PM May sought an extension to delay Brexit. However, reports suggested that the EU could give the UK a nine-month delay if the Brexit deal due to be presented to the UK parliament was rejected next week.

Will GBPUSD Resume the Declines?
The currency pair has been drifting within the resistance area of 1.3312 and 1.2928 levels. With resistance firmly established, the downside could see the pound slipping to retest the lower support at 1.2928 – 1.2971. A retest of this level could, however, keep the currency pair drifting sideways for the moment.



Gold Gives Up Post-FOMC Gains
Gold was seen trading 0.27% lower on the day by Thursday’s close. The precious metal gave up the gains from after the FOMC late Wednesday. With the risk appetite rising, investors shed the safe haven assets in preference for risky assets.

Can XAUUSD Break the 1305 Support?
Gold prices briefly rallied to intraday highs of 1310.27 on Thursday but pulled back sharply to close on a bearish note. Price is still supported above the 1305 level of support. The risks are equally balanced at the moment. A retest to 1320 level to establish resistance still remains a possibility. However, a close below 1305 could trigger a move to the downside to 1290 support.gold

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Old 26-03-2019, 08:31
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The US dollar traded weak on Monday as the 10-year bond prices rallied pushing yields lower. The spreads between the 3-month and 10-year yields continued to widen with the inverted yield curve taking a more pronounced shape at the front end.

Canadian bond markets also showed an inversion following in the footsteps of the US markets. The sentiment continued to remain weak pushing prices of safe haven assets higher as a result.

Euro Posts Modest Gains on Ifo Data
The common currency attempted to recover from the losses from last week as it gained 0.17% on the day. The German Ifo business climate data showed an increase for the first time in six months. The Ifo index rose to 99.6 in March, up from 98.7 in February and beat estimates of an unchanged print.

Can the EUR/USD Break the Resistance at 1.1330?
The currency pair inched higher on an intraday basis and briefly tested the resistance level at 1.1330 before pulling back. Price action has formed a possible consolidation pattern near the lows from last Friday. If the resistance level cannot be breached, we anticipate price to retest Friday’s lows of 1.1272 level and could potentially validate the bearish flag pattern. This could push the currency pair lower toward 1.1217.



Yen Stabilizes as Risk Aversion Eases
The Japanese yen traded flat on Monday after the markets were trading a bit more stable. The USD post modest gains on the day, following a decline to a six-week low previously. This came as risk aversion was seen easing with the U.S. equities posting a slower decline.

Will USD/JPY Hold the Support at 110.84?
Price action closed with a doji on Monday following last Friday’s strong bearish close. This potentially indicates a rebound in the price action to the upside. However, we need to see a bullish follow-through today. A close above the trend line could be positive for the currency pair as the USDJPY will attempt to retest the breached support at 111.40 where resistance could now be established.



Gold Soars to a 4-week High
The risk aversion from last week sent gold prices higher on Monday. The precious metal gained 0.63% on the day pushing to highs of $1324.44. The gains came amid the investor concerns of an economic slowdown and the ongoing Brexit narratives. The British parliament will vote on various measures of the Brexit deal on Wednesday.

Will Gold Maintain the Bullish Momentum?
Price action suggests that gold prices could post a correction near the current highs. The rally to 1320.81 level marks a retest of the previously held support level. Thus, establishing resistance here could see some downside in the near term. Watch for the initial support at 1306.00 in the short term.

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Old 27-03-2019, 08:22
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The New Zealand dollar traded 1.5% lower today after the overnight session showed that the RBNZ was likely to cut interest rates in the near term. The central bank left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% at today’s meeting.

Meanwhile, the market sentiment improved on Tuesday after the Treasuries gave back the gains easing fears of a recession. Chicago Fed member Evans, an FOMC voting member, said that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates until the second half of 2020.

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Euro Trades Weaker on Mixed Data
The euro was down 0.38% on the day despite economic data from the eurozone staying sparse. The Gfk consumer climate report from Germany showed a decline to 10.4 from 10.7 previously. The fourth quarter GDP report from France was revised to show a 1.0% increase compared to a 0.9% increase as previously reported.

Will the EURUSD Maintain the Bearish Momentum?
The EURUSD currency pair continued to reverse the gains with prices posting a steady decline and resuming the bearish trend. The euro has traded near lows of 1.1251 levels at the time of writing which marks a support area. As long as the support holds, we could expect the EURUSD to post a modest bounce to the upside.




Yen Extends Losses Despite Weak US Data
The Japanese yen eased back as the currency fell 0.59% on Tuesday. The reversal came as the USD regained the bullish momentum despite a mixed economic outlook. Housing starts grew 1.16M on the month coming out less than expected while the conference board’s consumer confidence surprisingly fell to 124.1 from 131.4 previously.

USDJPY Bullish at Support, Can the USD Maintain Gains?
The currency pair posted a strong bullish candlestick just after prices touched down to the support level at 109.84. The strong close indicates prices are likely to drift higher in the near term. Watch the resistance level at 111.40 in the near term which could be tested, following the break of the trend line.



Gold Declines As Risk Sentiment Improves
Gold prices lost 0.46% on the day on Tuesday erasing most of the gains made from the day before. Price action, however, remains a bit volatile. The declines came as the market sentiment was seen showing a modest improvement following the initial panic after fears of a recession saw investors fleeing to safe haven assets.

XAUUSD Reverses at Resistance as Expected, so What’s Next?
Gold prices reversed direction after hitting the resistance level of the 1320 – 1321 region. The declines saw prices posting a modest rebound off the lows marking a lower high as a result. The local low formed at 1318.86 needs to be breached in order for gold to continue the declines lower. The support level at 1306 remains the next main target to the downside.

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Old 28-03-2019, 08:16
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The January trade deficit data for the United States showed a decline of 15% with the deficit shrinking from a revised $59.9 billion in December to $51.1. The deficit shrank on lower oil imports and surged in soybean exports. The data reversed the tariff driven surge from the months before. Imports fell 2.6%, while exports rose 0.9%.


Euro Remains Subdued as Draghi Raises Concerns of Negative Rates
The ECB President, Mario Draghi, speaking at an event on Wednesday, said that the central bank was concerned about the prolonged effects of negative interest rates. The ECB has been keeping interest rates negative for nearly five years to spur lending. The shift from the ECB comes as it ended its QE program in December last year and will be launching a new round of cheap financing for European banks.

Can the EURUSD Reverse Off the Support?
The common currency continued to decline as price was seen trading just outside the support area of 1.1268 – 1.1251. While price action is currently signaling a possible retracement, a close above 1.1268 is required to confirm this. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart is oversold indicating a potential bounce. However, prices are likely to remain subdued in the near term. A bearish follow through could see the EURUSD reaching for 1.1217 support.



Market Sentiment Remains Somewhat Mixed
Investors continued to remain cautious despite the market’s moderate risk appetite. This was reflected in the safe haven yen which managed to rise modestly on the day. The yen posted modest gains of 0.15% on the day after previously easing back. The better than expected trade deficit figures from the U.S. helped to soothe investors’ nerves.

Is the USDJPY Reversing?
The USDJPY currency pair failed to capitalize on the gains from Tuesday and price action has been trending lower in the near term. With price above the support level of 109.84, we expect the minor correction to be limited. However, if the currency pair breaks the support, then we could expect a deeper correction to the downside. For the moment, we expect USDJPY to stall its pullback and resume the move to the upside.



Gold Retreats From a 4-week High
The precious metal posted declines right after hitting a 4-week high. Gold prices fell for a second consecutive day as it lost 0.45% on the day on Wednesday. However, price action remains largely flat in the medium to longer term horizon. This aptly reflects the broader market outlook which remains cautious.

Will Gold Maintain the Range?
Gold prices extended declines from the resistance level of 1320.81 as expected. Price action is currently attempting to post a reversal, just a few pips above the support area of 1306. The near term retracement could potentially push gold prices to correct the recent declines. However, this could keep the precious metal maintaining a sideways range within the said levels. A break below 1306 is required for further declines that could see price attempting to test the next lower target of 1290.

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Old 29-03-2019, 09:05
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The USD continued to maintain the gains amid a host of factors. The revised GDP for the fourth quarter saw the US economy rising 2.2% compared to the initial estimates of 2.6%. This was in line with YoY estimates for 2018 and it closed out the year with a 2.9% GDP growth rate, just shy of the Trump administration’s 3.0% growth target.

Trade talks with China progressed as U.S. trade representatives arrive in Beijing today for meetings. The last trading day of the month and the first quarter could see some position balancing taking place which could keep the USD a bit volatile.


Brexit Stalemate Sours Sentiment for Sterling
The British pound fell over 0.87% on the day on Thursday after the UK parliament failed to build a consensus on proposing alternative options for the Brexit deal. This prompted PM May to pull the vote on the deal for another day. The uncertainty on the Brexit continues with the likelihood of a hard Brexit still on the table. The currency extended losses for a second consecutive day.

Will GBPUSD Continue to Fall?
The currency pair has been trading within the range of 1.3312 resistance and 1.2972 level of support for the most part this month. As long as the support level holds, the GBPUSD could maintain this sideways range for a while. The lower support shows a confluence with the rising trend line as well. This adds weight to the view that the support level will likely hold in the near term.



Euro Subdued On Weak Economic Confidence
The common currency continued to extend losses for a third consecutive session. Economic confidence in the region fell to 105.5 in March, marking the lowest level since October 2016. Data from Germany was also disappointing as inflation eased to a pace of 1.3% on the month in February, down from 1.5% previously.

Can the EURUSD Bounce Off the Support?
The currency pair has extended the declines lower to test the support area of 1.1217. A further extension lower could push the common currency to decline to lows of the 1.1174 region. The Stochastics indicate that the currency pair is strongly oversold and this could offer some short term respite to the upside. Still, the gains are unlikely to come by with the minor resistance at 1.1295 likely to hold the correction.



Gold Loses over 1%, Falling for the Third Session
The precious metal extended declines for a third consecutive session with the declines gaining momentum. Gold prices lost close to $18 on Thursday. The declines came amid the general risk appetite turning positive after the initial concerns of a recession that plagued the markets earlier this week. US and China trade talks also contributed to the sentiment as investors shed safe-haven assets.

Can XAUUSD Hold the Support?
The drop in gold prices sent the precious metal to test the support area of 1290.37 – 1284.65. A break down below the support could trigger the descending triangle pattern and could see gold prices posting further lows. For the moment, we expect the support to hold out in the short term but the bias to the downside increases.

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