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Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

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  #1  
Old 13-02-2019, 08:03
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Default Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The USD eased back on Tuesday as investors grew cautious about the U.S. and China trade talks which entered the second day. The parties are focusing on producing an outline for the agreement which could be then signed off by the respective leaders. Failure to reach a deal by March 1st could potentially mean that either a new deadline must be set or the new tariffs will hit the tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from China.

The British Prime Minister, Theresa May said that there was no breakthrough on the Brexit negotiations with the EU. However, she ruled out a no-Brexit deal and said that talks would continue.


Economic data on the was relatively quiet. New Zealand’s inflation expectations for the quarter remained unchanged at 2.0%. Japan’s tertiary industry activity declined by 0.3% against forecasts of a 0.1% decline. The declines were slower compared to the previous month’s fall of 0.4%.

The European trading session was quiet.

The Brexit Situation
Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney gave a scheduled speech where he highlighted that trade uncertainty and the slowdown from China as the most significant risks. However, Carney said that the global economy would most likely avoid a recession. The British pound did not record any significant movement on the day.

The NY trading session which saw no significant economic releases was seen highlighted by the speech of the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. Powell delivered a speech titled Economic Developments in High Poverty Rural Communities in Mississippi.

Answering questions during the speech, Powell said that the U.S. economy looked strong. He did not make any further references to the Fed’s rate hike plans or on monetary policy.

The overnight session saw the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holding its monetary policy meeting. As widely expected, the central bank left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. The RBNZ’s policy statement suggested a dovish tone as the Governor said that while the chance of a rate cut is not in the books, a rate cut could happen if growth did not pick up.

The NZDUSD managed to post strong gains after the RBNZ’s meeting. The Kiwi is currently up over 1.68% against the USD.

Looking ahead, the UK’s inflation figures will be coming out today. Economists forecast that inflation fell to 1.9% on the year ending January 2019. The core inflation rate of 1.9%, matching forecasts.

Industrial production data from the Eurozone should fall by 0.4% on the month following a 1.7% decline from the month before.

The NY trading session will see the release of the monthly consumer price index data. Reports should show that the headline inflation rate rose by 0.1% reversing the 0.1% decline from the month before. The core inflation rate should remain steady, rising at a pace of 0.2% during the month.

Later in the evening, the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr will speak.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1337): The EURUSD currency pair closed on Tuesday with a bullish engulfing pattern. This comes after prices fell to a 3-month low of 1.1256 before prices recovered. On the 4-hour char time frame, the EURUSD currency pair attempts to close above 1.1327. This marks a minor support level that was breached.

Failure to hold the gains and the higher close above this level could potentially trigger a correction to the upside. The EURUSD could test the next main resistance level of 1.1435 if the bullish bias keeps in place.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.60): The USDJPY currency pair has been maintaining a solid bullish momentum since the past two trading sessions.

Last Friday’s strong bullish close above 109.78 has triggered the move that is likely to see prices testing the main resistance level of 111.21. This also comes with price action breaking out to the upside from the ascending triangle pattern. The support at 109.78 could be tested in the near term.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1313.09): Gold prices attempted to reverse the losses from Monday. Price action tested intraday highs of 1313.28 before easing back but closing on a bullish note. A bullish follow through today which could close above Monday’s open of 1314.07 will potentially set the upside bias in motion.

On the daily chart, gold prices have been consolidating, and the gradual decline has formed a bullish flag pattern. Price will need to break past the highs of 1321.58 to confirm the upside. The minimum upside target at 1347.23 is a successful breakout of the bullish flag pattern.
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  #2  
Old 14-02-2019, 08:29
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The U.S. dollar recovered from the losses from Wednesday led by slightly better inflation report and budget deficit narrowed to $13.5 billion year on year from $23.2 billion.

On the economic front, data from the UK showed inflation fell more than expected to 1.8%. Economists polled were expecting a decline to 1.9%. The core inflation rate increased steadily to 1.9%.


In the Eurozone, industrial production decreased more than expected to 0.9%. Economists forecast a decline to 0.4% on the month.

Sweden’s Riksbank held its monetary policy meeting yesterday. The repo rate kept at -0.25% as expected. The central bank signaled that it would hike rates once more during the second half of the year which would bring the repo rate to zero percent.

In the United States, consumer prices stayed flat during January. The core inflation rate rose by 0.2% which was within expectations. However, yearly, headline inflation rose to 1.6%, which scored better than expected, while core inflation kept stable at 2.2%.

More data
The markets opened to the quarterly GDP data from Japan. Data showed that Japan’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 advanced 0.3% This was slightly slower than the median expectations of a 0.4% increase. Still, the fourth quarter GDP was better compared to the third quarter’s contraction of 0.6%.

China released the monthly trade balance figures which advanced to 39.2 billion against expectations of a decline to $33.5 billion.

The European trading session will start with the GDP figures for Germany for the fourth quarter. Data should show that Germany’s GDP advanced 0.1% on the quarter ending December 2018. This follows a 0.2% decline in the second quarter marking a contraction in the economy.

The flash GDP figures for the Eurozone are next and no changes are expected as the Eurozone’s economy is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018.

The NY trading session will see the manufacturing sales report from Canada followed by the retail sales report from the United States.

U.S. retail sales should see a 0.1% increase this month, slightly lower than the 0.2% increase from the month before. Core retail sales are expected to remain flat during the month after increasing 0.2% previously.

Producer prices index data is also on the tap today. Headline PPI should rise by 0.1% on the month while core PPI is expected to grow by 0.2% following a 0.1% decline in December.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1278): The euro currency reversed gains after a brief rally to the resistance level of 1.1327. However, price action failed to capitalize on the benefits and ended up breaking down lower. This leads to a divergence on the charts with the current lows reflected with a higher low in price. A bullish follow through here could see the EURUSD retesting the resistance level of 1.1327 followed by a move to 1.1435.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (111.01): The USDJPY currency pair maintained strong gains as the price inches closer to 111.21. We expect to see a reversal at this level which could see some downside in the currency pair. The lower support at 109.74 remains a key level of interest, and the USDJPY could maintain a sideways range as a result. If the bullish momentum will push the USDJPY higher, then we could expect further gains on a successful breakout above 111.21.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1308.46): Gold prices slipped from intraday high of 1318.07. However, price remains firmly within get bullish flag pattern that is formed on the daily chart. With the market sentiment a bit choppy, we expect this to be reflected in the price action of gold. The resistance level sits at 1321.27 which could be tested in the near term. There is also a potential ascending triangle pattern that is currently shaping up on the 4-hour chart. A successful upside breakout from this ascending triangle could potentially validate the bullish flag pattern with further gains likely in store to the upside. If the minor rising trend line is breached, we could expect to see some declines in store to the downside with the flag pattern being invalidated.
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  #3  
Old 15-02-2019, 07:57
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

Trade balance figures from China showed a somewhat better picture compared to the expectations. Data for January showed that exports in dollar-denominated terms rose 9.1% during the month while imports fell 1.5%. This left the trade surplus at $39.1 billion for the month.

The data was better than the expectations which showed that both imports and exports would fall.

The European trading session showed that Germany’s GDP for the fourth quarter remained flat against expectations of a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s GDP kept unchanged at 0.2% for the same period.



The U.S. trading session saw the delayed retail sales report coming out. Data for December showed that retail sales fell 1.2% on the month in December while core retail sales fell 1.8%. The data stoked concerns of the downside risks, and the USD paired gains as a result.

Earlier today, China’s inflation report released earlier today during the Asian trading session showed that headline inflation grew at a slower pace of just 1.7% on the year in January. Producer prices index advanced just 0.1% on the year, marking a steady decline over the past few months.

More figures to close off the trading week
The European trading session will start with the release of Italy’s trade balance figures and will be followed up later in the day with the release of the Eurozone’s trade balance figures.

The UK’s retail sales report is due, and the data is expected to show a 0.2% increase in retail sales. This following a 0.9% decline in the month before.

The NY trading session will see the Empire State Manufacturing Index report coming out. Forecast point to an increase in activity with the index expected to rise 7.6 from 3.9 previously. Import prices data from the United States should fall by 0.2% marking the third month of decline following a 1.0% decline in the month before.

The industrial production figures should show a modest pick up with activity rising 0.1%, slightly slower than the 0.3% increase from the month before.

The data concludes with the release of the UoM’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1285): The EURUSD currency pair posted a modest recover off the lows and supported by the bullish divergence. However, price action continued to ease following the retest of the breakout level. The Stochastics oscillator is singling a bullish divergence near the lows. The resistance at 1.1327 remains a key level for the EURUSD. Price action needs to breakout past this level to confirm the upside bias. Failure to break the resistance could, however, keep the euro currency range bound.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.28): The USDJPY currency pair reversed the gains just a few pips short of the resistance level at 111.21. The declines have been swift with prices recovering more than 50% of the gains made within the range. We expect the USDJPY to remain flat within 111.21 and 109.74 levels in the near term. If the current declines continue, then the USDJPY currency pair could retest the lower support at 109.74 level to the downside.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1312.49): Gold maintained its sideways range near the top end of the rally. Price action remained choppy while the ascending triangle pattern remains intact near the top. The upside breakout could potentially trigger further gains as gold will then need to test the resistance at 1321.25. With the daily chart’s bullish flag still intact, there is a scope that the upside momentum could push prices higher. To the downside, gold prices will need to a breakdown below the minor rising trend line to invalidate the upside bias.
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  #4  
Old 18-02-2019, 08:09
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The U.S. dollar was seen easing back after briefly rising to a two month high. Economic data on the day was dominated by news about President Trump declaring a national emergency to fund the building of the border wall with Mexico.

The markets seemed somewhat muted to the news report on the day, but the sentiment could be affected given that this could potentially lead to a legal standoff.

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Euro slips on Couere’s comments on TLTRO
On the economic front, the euro slipped after Benoit Couere, one of the contenders as the next ECB President said that the central bank could restart its long term targeted operations financing program. Investors viewed this information as a sign of mounting weakness in the Eurozone economy.

This was not the first time; however, as the December ECB minutes showed that officials deliberated on whether to introduce the TLTRO program once again.

The UK’s retail sales report scored better than expected to rise by 1.0% on the month and beat estimates of a 0.2% increase. Previous month’s retail sales reports showed a 0.7% decline which was also slightly better than initial forecasts.

Trade balance figures from the Eurozone was in line showing 15.6 billion as expected.

Data from the U.S. showed that the regional manufacturing activity measured by the NY Fed showed the Empire State manufacturing index rising to 8.8 on the index. This reversed the drop to 3.9 in the month before and was well above the median forecasts.

Import prices, however, fell by 0.5% on the month which did not meet the estimates.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today is relatively quiet. It is a bank holiday in the United States. There are not many financial reports scheduled on the day.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1311): The euro currency came under pressure on Friday following the dovish comments from ECB’s Couere. The common currency, however, managed to recover from the short term losses and closed flat on the day on Friday. As a result, price action near the bottom has consolidated into a falling wedge pattern. This could indicate an upside breakout in prices. If the common currency manages to break out above 1.1327, we could expect the bullish momentum to push the euro toward 1.1435 level where the resistance level is pending a retest.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.53): The USDJPY currency maintained its declines although price posted a brief rebound. However, by the closing hours, the USDJPY eased back those short term gains. We expect that the USDJPY is on track to slip back to the 109.74 level where support could be formed. The overall price action in USDJPY remains flat within the 111.21 and 109.74 levels of resistance and support respectively. A breakout from this range should establish the near term direction of the currency pair.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1323.61): Gold prices turned bullish on Friday with the price action on the 4-hour chart indicating a breakout from the ascending triangle pattern. This also triggered an upside breakout from the bullish flag pattern. Price tested the previously established resistance level of 1321 before easing back. Gold prices need to post a follow through and close above 1321 to set the sights for the next upside target. While the ascending triangle on the 4-hour chart signals a move to 1323, the daily time frame bullish flag pattern gives an upside target of 1347 at the very least. If gold manages to establish support at 1315, we could expect to see some bullish momentum taking over.
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  #5  
Old 19-02-2019, 07:54
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The markets were trading muted on Monday with the U.S. market closed on account of a bank holiday. The USD index was seen easing back on the day, extending the declines for the third consecutive session.

In the early Asian session, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the monetary policy meeting minutes. The day ahead will see the Swiss trade balance figures coming out. Forecasts show a modest increase to 2.24 billion. The eurozone’s current balance figures will follow.


The UK will be reporting on its labor market data today. The average earnings index is expected to rise slightly higher to 3.5%, up from 3.4% previously. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.0%.

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index is due later and is expected to show the index easing to -14.1 from -15.0 previously.

The overnight session will see the producer prices index data for the fourth quarter coming out of New Zealand.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1294): The EURUSD currency pair advanced on Monday to test the previously established resistance level at 1.1327. Price action was seen easing back after testing this level. While the currency pair remains range-bound within 1.1327 and 1.1256, a breakout from this level could trigger the next direction in the trend. The bias remains to the upside at the moment. However, if the euro slips further, we could expect to see price retesting the lower support at 1.1256. To the upside, a breakout above 1.1327 could signal further gains that could test the next main resistance at 1.1437.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.64): The USDJPY has remained muted as price action is trading within the range of 111.21 and 109.74. With no clear breakout from this range, we expect price action to be consolidating within this level. The breached resistance at 109.78 remains a key level of interest in case of the downside. Establishing support here could keep the bias to the upside. Meanwhile, with the target level of 111.21 not being tested yet, there is the potential that the currency pair will maintain the upside momentum.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1323.56): Gold has advanced gains for the third consecutive daily session, as price tested intraday highs of 1326 before easing back. With the resistance level at 1321.27 being cleared, the current retracement could see a retest of the breached resistance level. Forming support at 132127 could signal a potential rebound to this upside. This would also validate the bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. The upside is at 1347 which remains the next main target. If gold prices fail to hold the support at 1321.27, then we could expect to see the downside prevailing with a correction toward the 1300 level of support.
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  #6  
Old 20-02-2019, 07:47
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The U.S. Dollar extended the declines for the fourth consecutive session. The drops come ahead of the Fed minutes due today. The U.S and China trade talks resume ahead of the March deadline alongside discussions with the EU officials.

On the economic front, data from the Eurozone showed that the current account surplus fell to 16.2 billion Euro in December. This was well below the estimates of a decline to 21.4 billion from 22.6 billion Euro in November.

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The German ZEW economic sentiment index showed an improvement in the sentiment. The index rose to -13.4 beating estimates of -14.1. The index rose to the highest level since the past 5-month period.

In the UK, the ILO labor market data showed that the economy added 14.2k jobs in the three months ending December. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.0% for the second consecutive time. However, the average earnings index increased just by 3.4% below estimates of a 3.5% increase.

Regarding Brexit, the UK PM May should resume negotiations with the EU counterparts. This comes ahead of the February 26/27 presentation of the deal to the UK parliament. Meanwhile, the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Brexit could be delayed by the EU if the UK requests for the delay. He said that he does not rule out an extension to the Brexit deadline until May when the EU elections are done with.

Australia’s quarterly wage price index data showed a 0.5% increase. Economists forecast a rise of 0.6% in the quarter ending December 2018. The data comes ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report.

The European trading session ahead will see the German producer prices index coming out. PPI should fall by 0.2% on the month in January, slightly lesser compared to the 0.4% decline in December last year.

The economic calendar is quite sparse for the remainder of the session. The NY trading session will see the Fed’s meeting minutes coming out. The meeting minutes come under careful scrutiny from investors which covers the January meeting where interest rates stayed unchanged.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1342): The EURUSD currency pair managed to break past the resistance area of 1.1327 – 1.1309 earlier today. Price action should consolidate and potentially revisit the breached resistance level where support could establish. If a rebound off this level happens, then the Euro currency could attempt to post strong gains targeting 1.1435. This marks a retest of the previously breached support level. Establishing resistance at this level could potentially keep the common currency consolidating around the current levels of support and resistance.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.76): The USDJPY attempted to recover from the declines previously. Price should rebound from the temporary low formed following the rally to highs of 111.12. If price recovers from the modest pullback, we could expect the USDJPY to test the 111.21 level which would mark the completion of the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern. Alternately, to the downside, if the previous lows at 110.25 are breached, then price action could push lower. The support at 109.74 will become the next downside target for the USDJPY currency pair.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1342.79): Gold prices posted strong gains on Tuesday as price action rallied strongly. In a follow through, the precious metal rose to a fresh 10-month high earlier today with the intraday gains briefly testing the 1346.62 level. This marks the price level that we were anticipating to the upside following the breakout from the bullish flag pattern. A firm retest should trigger around the 1346 – 1347 level. As long as these resistance levels, gold prices could be seen posting a correction in the near term. The previously held support at 1321.50 remains the key target to the downside.
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Old 21-02-2019, 08:05
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The Federal Reserve released the meeting minutes yesterday from its latest policy meeting. The U.S. dollar pared losses after the minutes did not show any further dovish message from the central bank. Economic data was sparse.

The British pound posted gains as the meeting between the EU and the UK happened in an attempt to renegotiate the Brexit terms.


The markets got off a busy start today with the release of Australia’s employment report. Data showed that unemployment kept steady at 5.0% while the monthly employment change saw a change of 39.1k jobs. Economists forecast that the unemployment rate would hold steady at 5.0% while the employment change for the month would see 15.2k jobs being added.

The European trading session will see the final inflation figures from Germany and France coming out. Germany’s CPI should decrease by 0.8% on the month, unchanged from the flash estimates, while French inflation might fall by 0.5%.

Flash manufacturing and services PMI for the Eurozone should see manufacturing activity ease to 50.3 while services activity should recover to 51.5 from 51.2 previously.

The ECB will release its meeting minutes later in the day.

The NY trading session will see the U.S. durable goods orders report which should rise 0.8% on the month. Core durable goods orders should increase by 0.2%.

The Philly Fed manufacturing index should ease to 15.6 from 17.0 in January. Later in the day, the existing home sales report will be coming out. Data might show 5.01M compared to 4.99M from the previous month.

The BoC governor Poloz will speak later in the evening.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1350): The EURUSD currency pair reversed some of the gains. However, price action steadily held to the minor support created at 1.1335. The day’s price action resulted in prices retreating from the intraday highs. Still, with prices steady above the main support level of 1.1327 – 1.1309, we expect to see further gains in the EURUSD. If the intraday high of 1.1365 clears, then the common currency could be seen heading higher targeting 1.1435. To the downside, the support level remains essential as a breakdown below this level could signal declines and invalidate the bullish outlook.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.79): The USDJPY managed to close on a bullish note on Wednesday. Price action, however,trades flat within 111.21 and 109.74 levels of resistance and support. A breakout from this range will dictate further direction to the trend. For the moment, the ranging price action indicates a period of consolidation in prices.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1340.42): Gold prices were seen retracing the gains following the rally over the previous days. However, with prices easing back, we expect to see another attempt to push to the upside. Establishing firm resistance at 1347 level could signal a potential reversal to the gains. However, if gold prices breakout higher, we expect 1360 to be the next target to the upside. To the downside, the current lows formed at 1337 are important. A break down below this level could signal a move to the downside with the lower support at 1321.27 coming into the picture.
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Old 22-02-2019, 08:07
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

Data from the eurozone shows that the final inflation rate for Germany fell 0.8% on the month as expected. The inflation rate for France also fell 0.4% but was slightly better than the estimates of a 0.5% decline.

The flash services and manufacturing PMI for Germany and France showed a moderate expansion in activity.

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However, Germany’s manufacturing sector declined to 47.6 according to the flash estimates. For the eurozone as a whole, manufacturing PMI contracted, falling to 49.2 and missing estimates of a decline to 50.3. Meanwhile, services PMI rose to 52.3 beating estimates of an increase to 51.4.

The NY trading sessions showed that durable goods orders in the United States rose 1.2%. This was well below the estimates of a 1.6% increase. Core durable goods orders rose 0.1% on the month, missing estimates of a 0.3% increase.

Markit also released the flash services and manufacturing PMI reports for the U.S. data. It showed that while manufacturing activity slipped to 53.7, services activity rose to 56.2.

The existing home sales report which came out later showed a decline to 4.94 million compared to estimates of 5.01 million.

The markets today will be focusing on the final inflation figures from the eurozone as well as the final GDP numbers from Germany. Germany’s fourth-quarter GDP is expected to see a flat print for the month compared to previous estimates of a 0.1% increase in GDP.

The inflation report for the eurozone is expected to show that headline CPI increased 1.4% on the year in January, while the core inflation rate is expected to be confirmed rising 1.1% on the year.

Canada will be releasing its retail sales report later today. Headline retail sales are expected to remain flat while core retail sales are set to fall 0.5% on the month.

The remainder of the day will see a number of central bank speeches. The ECB President Draghi will be speaking followed by FOMC members, Clarida, Bullard, Quarles, and Williams.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1334): The EURUSD currency pair has repeatedly been testing the support at 1.1327. Price action has held this level firmly so far. This opens the bias to the upside as the EURUSD could be seen attempting to push higher.

The swing high near the 1.1350 level will need to be breached for price to post fresh highs. The longer-term target is seen at 1.1435, which remains the main upside target for the moment. Alternately, if the support gives way, the EURUSD currency pair could be seen consolidating near the support area of the 1.1327 – 1.1309 region in the near term.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.77): The USDJPY continues to maintain a rather flat position. Price action remains firmly stuck between the111.21 and 109.74 region. In the near term, the upside target could be tested which will mark the completion of the bullish ascending triangle pattern. The declines are limited to 109.74, subject to the swing low at 110.24 being breached.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1324.61): Gold prices extended declines strongly just a day after the Fed meeting minutes. Price action fell to the support level of 1321.58 which marked the resistance level of the bullish flag pattern previously.

A firm retest of this level could potentially see a reversal off the support. This could put gold prices to trade sideways within the 1347 and 1321 levels in the near term. The upside bias is still intact, and this could mean that gold prices could attempt to break out above the 1347 level.

To the downside, if the support at 1321 gives way, we could expect to see further declines. For the moment, watch for a lower high to be formed below the 1347 level following which a retest of 1321 could confirm the downside.
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Old 25-02-2019, 08:03
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The U.S. dollar attempted to hold the gains but closely slightly bullish. Economic data showed that inflation from the Eurozone confirmed at 1.4% on the year in January. The final core inflation rate met 1.1% as per the preliminary flash estimates.

On Friday, officials in Washington said that they were extending the trade negotiations with China. The news raised speculation that the two countries might be close to nearing a trade agreement. President Trump said that a deal with China was more likely than not.

The U.S. set a 90-day deadline for trade talks with China. In case it fails it would automatically raise the tariffs on Chinese goods. The number we talk about are tariffs from 10% to 25% spanning across $200 bn worth of products. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was extending the deadline citing that the talks with China were progressing.

Mixed data from all over the world
The NY trading session showed Canada’s retail sales falling 0.1% on the month which was worse than the forecasts of a flat reading. Core retail sales fell 0.5%, matching estimates. The declines came on account of lower gas prices. On a year over year basis, Canada’s retail sales rose by 1.7% in 2018, compared to 2.7% in the year before.

Some Fed members will speak later during the day, including the ECB president Mario Draghi.

New Zealand’s retail sales report showed better than expected figures. Headline retail sales increased by 1.7% in the quarter, beating estimates of a 0.5% increase while the third quarter retail sales were revised higher to show a 0.3% increase.

Core retail sales gained 2.0%, beating estimates of 0.8% and up from a third quarter’s revised 0.7% print.

Bank of England’s Mark Carney will speak during the European trading session. The economic data for the day is quiet with the final wholesale inventories due during the U.S. tradings session. Final wholesale inventories should increase by 0.3% on the month marking the same pace of change as the month before.

The FOMC member, Richard Clarida is due to speak later in the evening.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1339): The EURUSD currency pair closed with a doji candlestick pattern for the past three days. Price action remains firmly above the support at 1.1327 level, but with no new highs on the sight, we could expect the consolidation to continue in the near term. While the support level holds, the EURUSD remains bullish with the prospects of a test to 1.1435 level of resistance in the near term. However, in the unlikely event that the common currency slips below the support, price action could test the previously established lows of 1.1256.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.66): The USDJPY currency pair continues trade rather flat with price action trading sideways within 111.21 resistance and 109.74 level of support. Following the brief decline off the highs near 111.15 level, the USDJPY currency pair has been trading in a tighter range. The bias is balanced as bullish momentum could see the USDJPY rising higher and potentially reach the upside target of 111.21 level. This would mark the measured move of the ascending triangle pattern the was formed on the daily chart. To the downside, a decline to 109.74 would see a retest of the breached resistance level where support is yet to be established.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1330.58): Gold prices attempted to rebound after the sharp declines from Thursday. Price action closed with some bullish gains on Friday, briefly rising to intraday highs of 1333.01 before easing back. On the 4-hour chart, the rebound off the support level saw prices posting a lower high. As long as this high stays clear, gold prices should maintain the downside momentum. The support at 1321.47 could test in the near term. A break down below this level could open the way for a bearish decline.
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  #10  
Old 26-02-2019, 10:19
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

Economic data on Monday was relatively sparse on the day. The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney gave a scheduled speech. Most of his speech highlighted the markets post-Brexit.

The British PM May was seen delaying the Brexit vote, and the next voting is expected to happen on March 12. Meanwhile, two British lawmakers have pushed for a vote to postpone the Brexit deadline of March 29th. Some lawmakers said that if PM May cannot get a Brexit deal approved by March 13th, they would force her to extend the deadline.


Mixed data from the US
From the United States, the final wholesale inventories rose by 1.1% on the month which was above expectations of a 0.3% increase. President Trump raised the market optimism by noting that the U.S. was close to agreeing on a deal with China. The markets await more news on this.

President Trump’s tweet to OPEC that the world could not take on higher oil prices sent oil prices plummeting on the day. WTI Crude oil fell over 2.86% on the day following this.

Earlier today, the Bank of Japan’s core inflation data came out. Data showed that while economists forecasted a 0.6% increase, core inflation rose by 0.5%. This follows the previous month’s 0.4% increase in inflation.

The European trading session will see the UK’s inflation report hearing coming out. The NY trading session will start off with Canada’s corporate profits due. Data from the U.S. will cover the building permits data which should see building permits rise at a slower pace of 1.29 million. Housing starts should increase by 1.25 million.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence report is out later, and confidence should rise to 124.3 on the index, up from 120.2.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to give his testimony later in the evening, followed by the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index due later in the evening.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1357): The EURUSD currency pair remains firm, trading above the 1.1327 level of support. Price action has repeatedly been attempting to test the upside, but price action has been rejected. This has led to a minor resistance level forming at 1.1365. A breakout above this level is required for the EURUSD to continue the gains to the upside. The next main target should be at 1.1435. To the downside, the support area looks strong enough to hold the declines for the moment. However, if the euro breaks down lower, we anticipate a retest of 1.1256 level.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.83): The USDJPY posted some modest gains as price finally tested the upside target at 111.21 albeit rather briefly. Price posted a strong reversal off this resistance level with the past few sessions on the 4-hour chart pushing lower. With the upside target on a test, the USDJPY could potentially seek to retest the lower support at 109.74. A retest of this support will, however, keep the bias intact. The USDJPY trades flat currently within the said range.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1329.02): Gold traded subdued on Monday after price action posted strong declines off the highs near 1346.62 previously. With the support at 1321.27 holding the drops, for now, we expect to see some consolidation taking place. At the same time, as long as the support holds, the bias remains to the upside for a solid retest of the resistance level. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have posted a modest correction before reversing course again. However, the current price action is looking to show a bearish flag pattern that could be forming. If the support at 1321.27 gives way, this could validate the bearish momentum in gold and signal a move to the downside. The next main support comes at the round number support of 1300 followed by a step to 1280.
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Old 27-02-2019, 08:33
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

Data from the U.S. showed that consumer confidence increased in February after the U.S. government shut down the previous month.

The data released by the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence increased to 131.4 in February after falling to 121.7 in the month before. This beat the forecast increase to 124.0.

Fed Chair, Jerome Powell started his two-day testimony to U.S. Congress. He affirmed the central bank’s decision to pause the rate hikes as they assess the impact of weaker global growth on the economy. Powell’s testimony didn’t have too much of an effect on the markets.

Ahead of Powell’s testimony, data from the housing sector revealed that home prices increased in 2018 at one of the slowest paces in four years. The S&P Case Shiller home price index which measures the average home prices rose 4.7% on the year ending December 2018. This was a significant slowdown compared to 2017’s increase of 6.0%.

Housing starts data for December, one of the delayed reports due to the partial government shutdown showed a decline of 11.2% in December compared to the month before. This was the lowest level in nearly two years.

No deal Brexit possible only by consent of UK parliament
The British pound posted gains following news that PM May said the UK would leave the EU on March 29 without a Brexit deal only after the consent of the parliament. May said that the parliament could vote to delay Brexit if the deal were to be rejected. The sterling rose to the highest level since September last year on the news.

Oil prices stabilized a day after posting strong declines after Trump called out OPEC to do more to keep oil prices lower.

The day ahead – Powell’s testimony to continue
The Asian session today showed the released of Australia’s construction work done. Data showed a 3.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2018. The median consensus estimate forecast an increase of 0.6%. The European trading session is relatively quiet with no major releases scheduled.

The NY trading session is expected to show Canada’s inflation report. Headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.2% after falling 0.1% the month before. The common CPI is expected to remain steady at 1.9%, unchanged from the previous months’ reading.

President Trump said the U.S. would be signing a few trade deals. The news came after he met with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un.

The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will continue with testimony later in the evening. Factory orders report is expected to show an increase of 1.5%. This will reverse the 0.6% decline from the month before. The pending home sales report is also expected to rebound 0.8% after falling 2.2% on the month previously.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1376): The EURUSD currency pair posted some modest gains yesterday after price action was muted previously. On the 4-hour chart, the common currency has been a bit volatile over the past couple of sessions. Prices were seen forming bigger wicks. While currently, the EURUSD is seen easing back off the highs, the bias remains to the upside with the support area of 1.1327 – 1.1309 holding out. The upside target of 1.1435 remains a key level of resistance which could be tested.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.66): The USDJPY currency pair has been easing lower after price action pared losses and tested the resistance area of 111.21. Minor support can be seen being established at 110.31 level. This will be tested to the downside if the current momentum pushes the currency pair lower. If this level holds, the USDJPY could be seen continuing to maintain its sideways range. However, if the minor support breaks, the USDJPY could extend the declines lower to the 109.74 level.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1327.22): Gold has been trading subdued with price action staying flat over the past three to four sessions. However, prices remain supported above the 1321.27 level which is yet to be tested firmly. There is scope for the support to be tested. However, it is also possible that gold prices could break past this support in the near term. There is a bearish flag pattern on the 4-hour chart which indicates the downside in gold prices. However, the declines are subject to gold breaking below the support level. The downside target is seen at 1340.91 level which would mark the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern that was formed previously.
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Old 28-02-2019, 07:48
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis February 2019

The U.S. dollar attempted to pare losses from Wednesday. Economic data on the day was relatively quiet from the Eurozone. Germany’s Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann gave a speech where he said that he would like to lead the central bank. Weidmann has been a harsh critique of Mario Draghi and the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy. The euro did not react much to the comments.

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Canada’s headline inflation rose by 0.1% on the month, which was below estimates of a 0.2% increase. On a year over year basis, headline inflation increased by 1.9% matching estimates. However, the BoC’s core inflation rate remained well above 2.0% which is the inflation target rate.

Final US wholesale inventories report showed a 1.1% increase on the month in January. Factory orders, however, rose just 0.1% in December, missing estimates of a 1.5% increase. Pending home sales were stronger than expected, rising 4.6% against estimates of a 0.7% increase.

More data from around the world
The economic calendar today gets off to a busy start. Earlier, in the Asian trading session, Australia’s private Capex released figures for Q4 and a 2.0% increase. Economists forecast that Capex would rise 1.1% during the fourth quarter. This follows a 0.5% decline from the third quarter.

China’s manufacturing PMI report released earlier today showed a decline to 49.2 for February. This was lower than the forecasts of a drop to 49.5.

The European trading session kicks off with the quarterly GDP report from Switzerland. Data should show a 0.4% increase in the quarter during the three months ending December. This follows a 0.2% decline in the third quarter.

Germany’s preliminary inflation report is due later today including France. Inflation should rise by 0.5% on the month in Germany. French inflation should increase by 0.4% which would reverse the 0.4% decline from the month before.

The NY trading session today will see the release of the advance GDP report. Forecasts point to a 2.6% increase in GDP during the quarter ending December 2018. This would mark a slower pace of growth during the period.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1374): The EURUSD currency pair maintains the gradual gains. Price action rallied to a 3-week high briefly before easing back. With the support level near 1.1327 – 1.309 holding out in the near term, price action is biased to the upside. The modest gains keep the EURUSD on track for prices to test the resistance level at 1.1435 level. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart time frame could post a bullish signal confirming the upside.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.90): The USDJPY currency pair managed to rebound with price action pushing to the upside over the past few sessions. The resistance level at 111.21 remains in sight for another firm retest. This could confirm the upside bias for the bullish ascending triangle pattern on the daily time frame. A breakout above this level might see USDJPY posting further gains. The next primary target should be at 112.54.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1318.80): Gold prices declined after prices stayed muted in the previous three sessions. Price action barely closed below the main support level of 1321.58. This could signal a possible move back above this level in which case the bias would remain to the upside. If gold prices extend lower declines, a modest rebound could lead to a lower high in place. A significant lower high could with no doubt signal that the bullish momentum is off the charts. Watch the 1321.58 level where resistance could be next in the near term. This would indicate a move to the 1300 level initially where support could hold.
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