Forex Forums | ForexLasers.com


Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRADING > Forex Analysis


Intraday Technical Analysis January

Forex Analysis


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
Old 02-01-2019, 08:43
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Intraday Technical Analysis January

The markets wake up to a new trading day of the year with the holiday season behind. Economic data picks up pace covering the latest for the month of December.

In the early Asian session today, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI showed that activity in the sector fell to 49.7 in December. Economists forecast a reading of 50.3 and manufacturing activity registered 50.2 the month before.

The European trading session will see the release of the regional manufacturing PMI’s. The eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI is forecast to remain steady at 51.4, unchanged from the previous month. In the UK, manufacturing activity is expected to slow a little to 52.6 compared to 53.1 registered in November.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet with only Markit’s manufacturing PMI due. Economists forecast that the final manufacturing PMI in the U.S. was to be unchanged at 53.9 in December.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1447): The EURUSD currency pair was seen attempting to retest the resistance area around 1.1461 level. Price action is seen easing back from this level, but the bias is likely to remain to the upside. The ascending triangle pattern potentially indicates that a successful breakout above 11461 could push the currency pair toward testing the highs of the 1.1600 region. To the downside, if the resistance holds, then the common currency could be testing the minor rising trend line. A break down below this trend line could shift the bias to the downside.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7018): The Australian dollar was seen easing back as the currency pair tested the previously established lows at 0.7022. The consolidation at the current lows could potentially indicate a bottom formation in price action. Price action needs to breakout above the interim pivot high formed at 0.7055 in order to confirm a correction toward 0.7191. Alternately, if the support at 0.7022 fails to hold the declines, the AUDUSD could be seen settling lower, close to 0.7000 level. Watch the Stochastics oscillator which could potentially be forming a bullish divergence.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1283.92): Gold prices, after a bit of consolidation near the 1280 handle was seen pushing higher at the time of writing. However, a strong close above the 1280 region is required to keep the bias to the upside. The next main upside target in gold comes in at the 1285 handle. But failure to post support near 1280.00 could potentially weaken the upside bias. In the event of a close below the 1280 handle, gold prices could be at risk of correcting to the 1250 handle where support is yet to be formed.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-01-2019, 08:26
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. Dollar posted strong gains on Wednesday as price action in the greenback sent most of its peers to close lower on the day. Gold prices tried to inch higher but failed to keep the intraday gains. WTI crude oil prices, on the other hand, managed to close bullish.

Higher yen and gold prices reflected the risk-off sentiment in the market while the Kiwi Dollar, the AUD, GBP, and the Euro posted strong declines on the day.

On the economic front, manufacturing PMI from the Eurozone showed that activity in the sector was unchanged at 51.5 compared to the month before. This was however in line with the median estimates.


In the UK, manufacturing activity rose to 54.2, marking a slight advance from the estimates of 52.5 and up from a revised reading of 53.6 in November. Markit’s manufacturing PMI for the U.S. showed a modest decline to 53.8 which was below estimates of 53.9

Looking ahead, the economic data from the Eurozone is relatively quiet. In the UK, the construction PMI data is due to be released today. Forecasts point to a slowdown in the UK’s construction activity with the index expected to ease to 52.9. This is weaker compared to 53.4 that was registered the month before.

The NY trading session will see the release of the U.S. ADP private payrolls report for December. Economists forecast that private payrolls rose slightly by 180k in December, up from 179k in November. The weekly unemployment claims follow the ADP report.

The main event for the day will be the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI report. Manufacturing activity is expected to ease to 58.2 in December, down from 59.3 previously. The ISM prices paid is also likely to ease from 60.7 to 57.9.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1368): The EURUSD currency pair posted strong losses on Wednesday as price action failed to breakout above the 1.1461 level of resistance. The minor trend line was breached invalidating the bullish ascending triangle pattern. The break down from the rising trend line saw the Euro currency testing lows of 1.1305 before recovering. The current rally off the lows near 1.1305 could see the EURUSD retesting the breakout level from the trend line. As long as the gains are capped here, we expect further declines down to 1.1275 level.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.6939): The Australian dollar fell sharply on the day, losing 0.94% overall. Price action fell to a decade low of 0.6759 after closing a bit higher from the lows. The declines came following the break down of the support level near 0.7022. The current recovery could, however, keep the AUDUSD to consolidate just below the resistance level of 0.7022. As long as this level is not breached, the AUDUSD could be attempting to post a bottom. However, we cannot rule out further declines in the near term.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1288.56): Gold prices continued to maintain the bullish momentum although price action was seen briefly retreating off the highs before recovering in today’s early Asian trading session. Establishing support at the 1280 handle has pushed gold prices slightly higher from Wednesday’s highs. However, with the Stochastics oscillator pointing to a bearish divergence, we anticipate that the support level at 1280 could give way to some downside in price action. A break down below 1280 will potentially push gold prices down to the 1250 handle where support is most likely to be established.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-01-2019, 08:17
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. Dollar eased back following the gains from Wednesday. On the economic front, the UK’s construction PMI eased to 52.8 which was below estimates and down from November’s reading of 53.4.

Data from the U.S. showed that the ADP/Moody’s private payroll numbers surged 271k. The data beat the conservative estimates of 179k increase. However, payrolls for November were revised down to show a reading of 157k.

Act_TradeIdeas

The ISM manufacturing PMI declined more than expected, falling to a two year low. Data showed that manufacturing activity dropped to 54.1 on the index missing estimates of a decline to 57.7. This was lower in comparison to November’s reading of 59.3.

The first busy day of the week will see investors turning attention to the data from the U.S. But ahead of this, the economic calendar today will cover the services activity for the Eurozone.

The Eurozone’s services PMI is forecast to remain steady at 51.4. Meanwhile, the UK’s services activity is expected to pick up slightly from 50.4 in November to 50.8.

Flash inflation estimates for the Eurozone are also due today. Headline consumer prices are expected to fall from 2.0% to 1.8% in January. Core inflation is however expected to remain unchanged at 1.0%. ECB officials had previously forecast about a short-term weakness in consumer prices. Producer prices data for December in the Eurozone is expected to ease 0.1% on the month.

The NY trading session kicks off with Canada and the U.S. labor market data. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%. Wage growth is expected to rise 0.3% on the month while the U.S. economy is forecast to add 181k jobs in December.

Following the payrolls data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak later in the day which could keep investors busy.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1393): The euro currency was seen retracing the losses on Thursday. Price action managed to recover only from stalling near the minor trend line which was tested as reistance. A continuation of the bearish momentum could potentially push the EURUSD lower again. Price action will need to break past the previously established lows at 1.1334 level to push lower to 1.1273 level of support. To the upside, the common currency will need to break past the current local highs formed to recover the losses completely. Overall, the EURUSD remains range bound within 1.1451 – 1.1273 levels of resistance and support respectively.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7022): The AUDUSD currency pair managed to recover from the sharp declines on Wednesday. Price action is seen retesting the breached support at 0.7022 at the moment. Failure to break past this resistance level could keep the Aussie Dollar subdued. However, the declines are likely to stall in the near term, unless price breaks past the lows of 0.6933. In the near term, we expect the AUDUSD to maintain a sideways range within the said levels. A breakout from 0.7022 or 0.6933 will most likely set the direction in the near term.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1294.45): Gold prices advanced higher on the day as the price was seen testing the highs of 1294, marking a new seven month high. This comes following the brief retest of support at the 1280 handle. The bullish momentum looks firm for the moment, but there is the scope that gold will retest the 1280 handle in the near term. The lower pending retest of support at 1250 remains open, which exposes the downside risk in gold. Watch for price action to consolidate near the 1280 level in this regard. Failure to establish strong support at this level could risk pushing gold prices lower. To the upside, the next main target comes in at the round number of 1300.00.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-01-2019, 08:21
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. Dollar closed flat on Friday. The day was marked with some mixed economic reports and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell which sent the equity markets briefly higher easing back the risk-averse sentiment in the market.

On the economic front, the Eurozone’s final services PMI was seen to have declined to 51.2. This was below estimates of 51.4 according to the flash estimates. Services PMI was seen to have turned weaker across Germany and France as well.

Act_TradeIdeas

Inflation estimates from the Eurozone also had some bad news as the headline inflation rose 1.6% which was slower than the expected forecasts of 1.8%. In November, consumer prices were seen at 2.0%. Core inflation data was seen to be stable at 1.0%.

In the NY trading session, Canada’s unemployment data showed that the economy added 9.3k jobs which were higher than the estimates of a 6.8k increase. Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.6%, unchanged from the previous month.

The U.S. payrolls data, on the other hand, showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up from 3.7%. Average hourly earnings were seen rising 0.4% on the month which was better than forecasts.

Looking ahead, the data today will cover the factory orders report from Germany. Economists forecast that factory orders will fall 0.2% on the month. Retail sales from Germany follows later which is forecast to rise 0.4% on the month.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet with only the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report coming out. Economists expect the non-manufacturing PMI to slip to 59.6, down from 60.7 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1423): The Euro currency was seen consolidating near the breakout of the trend line for the most part on Friday. Price action was seen establishing a temporary resistance level near 1.1405 level. As long as this level does not break, the EURUSD could be seen maintaining the pressure to the downside. There is temporary support formed near the previous local low at 1.1335 level. A break down below this level will see the EURUSD testing the next lower support at 1.1273 region

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7134): The Australian Dollar managed to break past the breached support level at 0.7022 which did not offer much resistance. The rebound in price action saw the currency closing with strong gains. In the near term, following a modest dip, the upside momentum is likely to be maintained. The next main target for the AUDUSD comes in at 0.7191 level which has previously held up as resistance. As a result, the AUDUSD could soon settle into the range within 0.7191 and 0.7027. A further breakout from this range could establish the next leg in the direction of the trend. The recent declines coincided with the retest of the longer term trend line. As a result, we can conclude that support is likely to be firm at the 0.6936 level

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1289.32): Gold failed to maintain the bullish momentum last week as price action reversed course just a few ticks shy of the 1300 round number resistance. As a result, the gold price settled lower at the 1280 level which we are closely watching. For the moment, the strong bullish reversal on Friday has established support at this level. Gold prices will now have to post a higher high to test the 1300 level. Failure to do so could keep price action subdued and expose the risk of the support level at 1280 giving way. This could open the price action to test the lower support at the 1250 handle.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-01-2019, 08:23
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. Dollar traded weaker on Monday amid a host of mixed data. From the Eurozone, the Sentix investor confidence report showed a decline in the index for the fifth consecutive month. The index fell to -1.5 in January while the current situation index declined to 18 marking a one year low.

Germany’s factory orders report showed a decline in activity for the first time in four months in November. Factory orders went down 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis and were more than the median estimates.


Data from the United States showed that the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI declined to 57.6 in December after rising to 60.7 in November. All significant sub-components of the services sector also showed a decline.

The economic data today will see the release of the German industrial production figures. Economists forecast industrial production to rise 0.3% following a decline of 0.5% previously.

From Canada, the trade balance figures will be public, and economists forecast trade balance to rise by 1.9 billion. Trade balance figures from the United States will be coming out later and is expected to show an increase to 54 billion.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1441): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting gains on Monday. Although the overall trend remains flat, price action rallied back to the resistance area of 1.1461, retesting the level for the fifth time. As long as the resistance level is not breached, the Euro is expected to remain range bound. On the daily chart, there are signs that price action is maintaining the ascending triangle pattern which indicates a potential upside breakout in prices. The next main target above 1.1461 resistance is 1.1575.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7128): The AUDUSD currency pair maintained the gains, but price action turned flat around the 0.71300 level. This could potentially signal correction to the short-term rally. The previously breached resistance/support level at 0.7022 remains a key level of interest to the downside. As long as this support holds, we can expect the AUDUSD to form a bottom with the bias turning to the upside. The resistance level at 0.7191 remains the next main resistance level targeted in the short term.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1282.57): Gold prices attempted to rally off the 1280 support only to form a lower high. Following this, price action pushes lower. A retest of the 1280 handle is quite likely. As long as the support holds, we can expect gold prices to maintain the gains with a possible retest back to the highs. Alternately, failure to hold the support at 1280 could trigger a potential decline to the 1250 handle where support is pending retest.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-01-2019, 08:14
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. dollar was seen making modest gains to recover from Monday’s losses. The markets were supported by the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China with both parties seen making progress on the purchase of U.S. goods and services.

The next round of cabinet-level talks is scheduled for later this month.

Join the responsible trading community - Open your Orbex account now!

Economic data on the day was relatively sparse. Germany’s industrial production figures showed a 1.9% decline on the month. This was worse than the forecasts of a 0.3% increase and comes on back of a revised 0.8% decline from the month before.

The data follows a weak patch after earlier in the week, factory orders also slowed, sparking concerns on a slowdown in the Germany economy.

The NY trading session saw Canada trade deficit widening in the month of November. The trade deficit increased on a drop in crude oil exports. A trade deficit of 2.06 billion was posted for the month against median forecasts of a deficit of 2.15 billion.

The economic calendar today starts off with the German trade balance figures coming out. Trade balance is expected to rise to 17.6 billion. Switzerland’s inflation data coming out later is forecast to decline 0.2%. This marks a decline from 0.3% previously.

The NY trading session will see investors turning to the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting. The BoC is forecast to raise interest rates by a quarter basis point at today’s meeting. This would bring Canada’s interest rates to 2.0%.

Later in the day, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney will be speaking. The BoE governor’s speech comes as the UK continues to negotiate the Brexit terms.

Later towards the close of the day, the FOMC meeting minutes will be coming. The Fed meeting minutes will cover the FOMC meeting from December where the Fed hiked interest rates by a quarter basis point.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1459): The euro currency was seen maintaining the gains on Tuesday as price action recovered from the modest declines to inch back higher to the resistance level of 1.1461. With a repeated test of the resistance level, the EURUSD is expected to stay within the range. Although the bias of a breakout to the upside is building, today’s Fed minutes could potentially provide the catalyst for the euro currency’s upside breakout. However, if the minutes turn out to be more hawkish then expected, the common currency could slip back and continue its sideways range.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7154): The Australian dollar has been advancing at a steady pace, and price action is trading close to the main resistance level of 0.7191. A retest of this resistance level could cap the gains in the short term. A modest correction to the short term rally in the AUDUSD currency pair could be on the cards. In the near term, as long as the resistance of 0.7191 holds, the Aussie dollar could be seen trading sideways. The lower support at 0.7022 remains a key level which could be tested to the downside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1282.24): Gold prices eased from the highs, but the momentum has remained weak. A brief retest of the 1280 handle saw prices rising up slightly. However, price action quickly settled lower, and the precious metal is seen once again attempting to test the 1280 handle. If the support gives way, gold prices could be expected to push lower with the 1250 handle the next target. To the upside, there is the scope that gold prices could post a rebound which could potentially see prices once again targeting the 1300 level which has remained elusive so far.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 16-01-2019, 08:29
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The markets traded shaky grounds on Tuesday amid a host of concerns. Reports from Washington revealed that there was no progress on the critical issues with China. Both the United States and China have been holding trade negotiations to end the trade wars.

China signaled that it would add more stimulus measures in the near term. The trade war with the US was taking a toll on its trade sector risking a sharper slowdown in the economy.

Reports from Germany showed that preliminary GDP estimates for the year came in at 1.5%. This was the weakest pace of growth in over five years and slow compared to 2017’s GDP growth rate of 2.2%.

Act_TradeIdeas

ECB President Mario Draghi signaled dovish comments to add that a Eurozone needs significant amount of stimulus.

In the United States, the producer prices index fell by 0.2% in December after rising 0.1% in November. The decline in the PPI was more than the forecasts of a 0.1% decline. The drops came due to a fall in energy prices.

The New York Empire State manufacturing index showed that activity in the region slowed to the slowest pace in a year in January. The index fell to 3.9 in January after a revised reading of 11.5 in December.

The Brexit parliamentary vote did not go through as widely expected. This raises the prospects of the UK inching closer to no deal along with a possible extension to the March 29 deadline. The Brexit deal received a vote down with a majority of 230 votes.

Earlier in the day, Japan’s PPI data showed that producer prices rose 1.5% on the year in December. The median estimates forecast an increase of 1.8%, and in November, Japan’s PPI advanced 2.3%.

The final inflation data for Germany is due to come out during the European trading session. Forecasts show that German inflation rose 0.1% on the month as per the flash estimates.

In the UK, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney will give to give a speech. The UK’s inflation data follow this. Forecasts show that consumer prices eased to 2.1% in December on the year. This marks a slowdown from the peak seen last year and inflation is inching closer to the BoE’s inflation target rate.

Core inflation is expected to rise by 1.8%, marking a steady pace of increase.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1409): The EURUSD currency pair extended heavy losses on the day as the common currency fell sharply due to economic data and dovish comments from ECB’s Draghi. The Euro slipped below the support of 1.1461, and it should trade sideways once again unless it breaches the 1.1461 which now is likely to act as resistance. To the downside, there is a risk of a decline to 1.1200, which is the lower support. Currently, the Euro holds off the dynamic support of the rising trend line.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7197): The AUDUSD consolidated having moved little following the rally above 0.7191. Price action could potentially breach this support with no fresh highs on the radar. This could expose the downside risks with the lower support at 0.7022 pending a retest. To the upside, the next target is at 0.7292 which has potential if the AUDUSD manages to regain the lost bullish momentum.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1289.87): Gold prices dipped lower from the consolidating triangle pattern formed near the highs. However, the declines are negligible which could keep the amount of the precious metal biased to the upside. The support at 1280 is likely to be tested once again in the near term if the price action remains weak to the downside. There is still a considerable risk that gold prices could rebound to the upside to test the 1300 level which could act as a round number resistance.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 17-01-2019, 08:26
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The markets continued to focus on Brexit which dominated the headlines for a second consecutive day. No less than 24 hours after the UK Parliament rejected the Brexit bill, the opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn moved for a no-confidence motion against the government.

This led to the no-confidence vote to happen later in the day. The result was that Theresa May won the vote of no-confidence. This puts Brexit back into the headlines as the negotiations with the EU continue.

Act_TradeIdeas

Earlier in the day, the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney gave his testimony to the UK parliament. He said that the UK banks have enough capital to face with any extreme outcomes. Carney was confident that the recent surge in the GBP showed that a no-Brexit deal is not in sight.

The UK’s inflation data showed that headline consumer prices rose just 2.1% in December on an annualized basis. This was a slower pace of increase in consumer prices following November’s print of 2.3%.

The core inflation rate was however slightly higher, rising from November’s 1.8% to 1.9% in December on the year.
Data from the U.S. showed that import prices fell by 1.0% compared to the forecasts of a 1.3% decline.

The markets today start off with the Eurozone’s final inflation report for December. According to the preliminary flash estimates, Eurozone’s consumer prices were seen rising 1.9% on the year in December while core inflation was seen at 1.0%. This would mark a slowdown in the pace of inflation increase and comes as the ECB is starting to tighten monetary policy.

The NY trading session will see the Philly Fed manufacturing index data coming out. The index should increase to 10.1, up from 94 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1381): The EURUSD currency pair is looking to extend the declines down to 1.1200 level as price action is breaching past the minor rising trend line. The drops come following the failure of support at 1.1461. If price action posts a daily close below the minor rising trend line, we could expect the currency pair to push lower and potentially retest the lower end of the range. In the longer term, price action is seen staying flat within the levels of 1.1461 and 1.1200.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7150): The AUDUSD currency pair is seen breaking out of its consolidation as price action is seen trading below the support level of 0.7191. The declines could potentially mark a retest of the support at 0.7022. In the short term, we could expect to see the AUDUSD retesting the current level of 0.7191 which could be tested for resistance. This could confirm the move to the lower support which has been pending retest for a while. As long as AUDUSD remains above 0.7022, we expect the bias to stay to the upside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1291.60): Gold prices inched higher to test intraday highs of 1295 before easing back. Price action remains flat, and the consolidation could potentially trigger a breakout in the near term. But with the 1280 support holding on any declines could likely stall at this level. Only a break down below 1280 will signal the move to the 1250 handle. As a result, we expect gold to remain trading flat at the current levels with multiple upside retest to the 1295 level. There is scope for gold prices to test the 1300 level to establish resistance.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 18-01-2019, 08:08
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The Eurozone’s inflation report showed that consumer prices slipped more than expected. Headline CPI fell to 1.6% which was more than the flash estimates that pointed to a decline of 1.7%. Core inflation, however, remained steady at 1.0%. The data comes ahead of the ECB meeting next week.

In the U.S. the Philly Fed manufacturing index increased to 17.0 on the index in January. This beat estimates of a modest increase to 9.7 and activity surged from 9.4 in December.

Act_TradeIdeas

Japan released the revised industrial production numbers. Data showed that industrial production declined 1.0% on the month.

The European session is quiet with the UK’s retail sales report on the cards. Forecasts point to a weak retail sales report showing a 0.8% decline on the month in December. The British pound maintained its gains amid news that some MP’s wanted to block a no-Brexit deal.

The NY trading session will see Canada’s inflation data coming out. The inflation data comes as the BoC decided to hold interest rates steady at its meeting a week before. Headline inflation is forecast to fall 0.4% on the month.

Data from the U.S. will cover the industrial production figures which are expected to rise 0.3% on the month. This marks a slower pace of increase after industrial production grew 0.6% previously

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1391): The EURUSD currency consolidated near the minor rising trend line after breaking to the downside. The consolidation could potentially see the bearish trend resuming. The Euro currency could post further declines as it approaches the 1.1273 level of support to the downside. In case the Euro currency posts a reversal, we could expect the price to retest the breached price level of 1.1461 to establish resistance. Either way, the common currency looks to be trading flat once again.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7190): The Australian dollar retested the price level of 0.7191 after breaking below this level. Price action briefly posted gains above this level before settling back. A close below 0.7191 could potentially signal the downside in the Australian dollar. This could open the way for the price to test the lower support at 0.7022. Alternately, if price manages to close above 0.7191, the AUDUSD could be on track to maintain the gains for targeting 0.7292 where the next resistance level will be established.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1291.60): The consolidation in gold prices continued with price action trading tighter into a range. This potentially opens the upside to price action which could see the ascending triangle being validated. A close above 1296 could see price posting gains towards 1310 at the very least. Alternately, to the downside, the declines are likely to stall near the 1280 support which has managed to hold the drops so far.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 21-01-2019, 08:17
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. Dollar posted strong gains on the day on news that China had proposed a 6-year increase of U.S. goods imports as part of the trade talks. Economic data from the U.S. was relatively quiet. The industrial production figures showed a 0.3% increase on the month in December. This beat estimates of a 0.2% increase.

The UK’s retail sales report showed a 0.9% decline in sales which was slightly worse than expected. Economists forecast that retail sales would fall 0.8%. The data for November showed a 1.3% increase.


Canada’s inflation surprised to the upside. Headline consumer prices accelerated from 1.7% to 2.0% in December. On a month over month basis, consumer prices fell 0.1% compared to estimates forecasting a 0.4% decline.

The day ahead will see the markets reacting to the data from China. China’s GDP increased by 6.4% during the third quarter. Economists forecast that GDP would rise at a slower pace of 6.4% and the actual figures matched the estimates.

Fixed asset investment and industrial production figures rose 5.9% and 5.7% respectively during the period.

The data from the Eurozone will see the German producer prices index data. Headline PPI is forecast to fall by 0.1% on the month. The U.S. markets are not open on account of Martin Luther King Day.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1374): The EURUSD currency pair extended declines after failing to hold the dynamic support of the minor rising trend line. The drops could now signal further losses as the common currency is likely to test the 1.1272 level to the downside. The bias remains flat for the moment, but if the lows formed at 1.1272 fails to hold the declines, we could expect to see the bearish trend likely to resume.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7166): The AUDUSD currency pair closed bearish following the failure to post any significant gains above the 0.7191 handle. The close could trigger a modest correction to the downside with the lower support at 0.7022 likely to come into focus. Alternately, there is a scope that price could maintain its consolidation at the current levels with the risk of moving back above 0.7191 level.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1281.19): Gold prices broke down to the downside as price action closed near the 1280 support. With the price action moving to the downside, gold prices could see some rebound at the 1280 handle. As long as the support holds, prices remain trading sideways. A close below 1280 could trigger further losses opening the way for the price to test the 1250 support.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 22-01-2019, 08:27
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The British pound posted modest gains on the day after it became evident that the UK government was pursuing a plan B. The details include amending the Irish border backstop arrangement as well.

On the economic front data from Germany showed that producer prices fell by 0.4% in December. This was more than forecasts of a 0.1% decline estimated by economists. The December’s declines come following a 0.1% increase in the month before.

The Bank of Japan’s core inflation rate increased 0.4% in December. This was slightly lower than the median estimates which forecast a 0.5% increase. The BoJ’s core inflation rate rose 0.5% in November.

The European trading session will start off with the UK’s monthly jobs report. The average earnings index should remain steady, rising by 3.30%. This marks the same pace of increase compared to the previous period. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%.

From the Eurozone, the German ZEW economic sentiment index is due later in the data. Economic sentiment drop even more with the index expected to fall to -18.8, down from -17.5 previously. Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment index is next which should ease to -20, compared to -21.0 prior.

The NY trading session will see Canada’s manufacturing and wholesale sales coming out. In the U.S. the existing home sales report is due to show a modest slowdown with 5.27 million units in December compared to 5.32 million units previously.

Later in the overnight session, New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly inflation report. New Zealand inflation should remain flat during the fourth quarter of 2018.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1357): The EURUSD currency pair continues to remain weak as price action seen testing the previous lows at 1.1358. A close below this level could extend the euro’s declines down to 1.1334 level of support. The longer-term support remains at 1.1275 region which will come in as the next target to the downside. Any rebound off the current level could see the falling trend line being tested for resistance once again. The overall bias in the EURUSD remains to the downside.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7137): The Australian Dollar weakened as price action posted a brief retest of the resistance level a 0.7191. Failure to close above the resistance level put the downside pressure in price. With the price extending the declines from the resistance level, the AUDUSD could go through for a retest to the lower support at 0.7022. The drops could initially stall at 0.7050 which marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level followed by the retest of the lower support.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1277.66): Gold prices touched down to the 1280 handle and price action closed below this level. With the Stochastics oscillator in the oversold levels, we could expect to see a correction if the momentum stalls. A clean break of the 1280 handle is required. Therefore, there is scope that if gold prices decline further, we could expect the 1280 handle to be tested for resistance. Alternately, we could see price action consolidating around this level for the near term.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 23-01-2019, 08:30
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The UK’s labor market data showed that average earnings index rose 3.4% for the three months ending November. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% amid forecasts of an unchanged print at 4.1%. The employment level rose 141,000 to a record high of 32.54 million in the three months ending December.

The GBP posted gains on the day, following the strong employment figures.

Existing home sales report, released by the National Association of Realtors showed a sharper than expected decline. Existing home sales fell 6.4% on an annual basis in December 2018. The decrease was more substantial than forecast and follows November’s revised figures of a 2.1% increase.

Act_TradeIdeas

Compare to the same period from the previous year, existing home sales are down 10.3%.

Canada’s factory sales decreased by 1.4% in November compared to the month before. This was bigger than the forecasts of a 1.0% decline. However, on a year over year basis, factory sales were up 2.7%.

The markets look a busy Asian session. The of Japan held its monetary policy meeting earlier today. No changes occurred to the interest rates as they currently stand at -0.10%. The BoJ governor, Kuroda will be holding a press conference shortly.

The Bank of Japan lowered its inflation forecasts at today’s meeting as it noted that it expects the core consumer prices to rise to 0.9% in the year ending March 2020.

The European session is quiet with not much going on.

Data from Canada will see the release of the monthly retail sales report. Next is the housing price index data from the U.S. which should show a 0.2% increase. This marks a slower pace of expansion in home prices compared to a 0.3% increase previously.

The Eurozone’s consumer confidence report is due later in the evening. The report should show that consumer confidence remained flat at -6, unchanged from the previous period.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1365): The EURUSD currency pair was seen extending declines earlier on Tuesday with the intraday lows reversing just a few pips off the 1.1334 level of support. In the near term, we expect this support to be tested a bit more firmly, but the bias remains to the upside for the moment. With the ECB meeting due tomorrow, the common currency is expected to trade flat in the near term. The upside could be capped near the highs of 1.1397.

AUDUSD intraday analysis


AUDUSD (0.7137): The Australian dollar continues to post a modest decline to the downside although the pace of declines is not constant. Due to the failure to break out above 0.7191 resistance, the AUDUSD should push lower targeting 0.7022 where support is most likely to happen. In the event that price action posts a reversal, we expect the resistance level to hold the gains in the near term.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1283.81): Gold prices tested the 1280 handle which looks to act as support. As long as this support holds, gold could extend the gains back to the 1290.77 level which marked the downside breakout from the triangle pattern. This could potentially result with the 1280 support being tested once again. A break down below 1280 would test the 1250 support that is pending retest. If the support holds, gold prices could maintain the sideways range as it did over the past few weeks.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 24-01-2019, 07:48
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The economic data during the European trading session was relatively quiet yesterday.

The NY trading session saw the release of Canada’s retail sales report. Core retail sales fell 0.6% on the month which was worse than forecasts of a 0.4% decline. Headline retail sales in Canada fell 0.9%, coming out worse than the forecasts of a 0.6% decline. There were also downside revisions to the previous month’s data.

The housing price index report from the U.S. showed a 0.4% increase, which was higher than the estimated 0.3% increase. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index was seen at -2 as forecast.

Australia’s employment data for December was released earlier today. Data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% beating estimates of an unchanged print of 5.1%. The economy was seen adding 21.6k jobs during the month.

The European session today will focus on the flash manufacturing and services PMI report. The report will cover France and Germany and also include the flash estimates for the Eurozone. Both the manufacturing and services sectors are forecast to see a modest increase in activity compared to December.

The main highlight of the day will be the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected from the ECB, but Draghi is likely to come out with a dovish statement amid slowing growth and falling inflation.

The NY trading session will see the weekly unemployment claims coming out followed by Markit’s flash manufacturing and services PMI data.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1384): The EURUSD currency pair was seen extending gains on the day as price action broke out to the upside. The resistance level at 1.1397 is likely to hold the gains in the near term, keeeping euro currency trading subdued. However, an upside breakout above this resistance level could no doubt push the euro higher to test the next resistance level at 1.1461. This is likely to happen if support is formed at 1.1397 on a retest. To the downside, the euro currency is expected to most likely test the lower support at 1.1334.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7109): The AUDUSD currency pair was seen extending declines on the day with price action settling into a corrective decline. This comes with the resistance at 0.7191 holding the gains. The downside could see the AUDUSD eventually slipping to test the support at 0.7022. This level previously acted as resistance and following the breakout, price action is yet to test this level of support.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1281.51): Gold prices have settled into a range with the 1280 handle holding out as support. The modest bounce off this level has kept gold prices trading flat. The risk is balanced as gold could potentially test the resistance level at 1290.77 which would mark the retest of the downside breakout from the triangle pattern. Alternately, if the 1280 support gives way, gold prices could eventually open the downside toward the 1250 level of support.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 25-01-2019, 08:09
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The euro currency came under pressure yesterday amid a mix of weak economic reports and the dovish ECB meeting. Ahead of the ECB meeting, the flash PMI’s covering the manufacturing and services sector showed that activity declined in both for the eurozone.

The ECB held the main rates unchanged at its meeting but at the press conference, the ECB president, Mario Draghi said that the risks for the eurozone’s growth had moved to the downside.

Test your strategy on how the Euro will fare with Orbex - Open your account now.
Data from the U.S. was limited with only Markit’s manufacturing and services PMI signaling that activity in both the sectors maintained the momentum.

Following a busy Thursday, the markets look relatively quiet today.

The German Ifo business climate data is due out during the European trading session. Economists polled expect the business climate to ease slightly to 100.7 from 101.0 previously.

The remainder of the session is quiet without many events scheduled during the U.S. trading session.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1323): The EURUSD currency pair was seen breaking past the 1.1334 level of support. The current reversal is seen as an attempt to retest this level. It is likely that 1.1334 will be acting as resistance in the near term. As long as the gains are held at the resistance, we expect the EURUSD currency pair to eventually push lower. The lower support at 1.1273 is likely to be tested in the near term. This would mark a firm retest of this level after prices briefly tested the level before bouncing off higher.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7097): The AUDUSD currency pair continues to extend the declines gradually. Price action is likely to touch down to the 0.7022 level of support in the near term. As long as the support holds, the currency pair could drift sideways within the range of 0.7191 and 0.7022. The bias remains to the upside, however, as AUDUSD could potentially retest the resistance level once again. If AUDUSD slips below 0.7022, we could expect a test of the lower support near 0.6936.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1282.15): Gold prices are seen testing the support level at 1280 and price action has been repeatedly bouncing off this level. In the near term, this sideways range could be maintained with the resistance at 1290 within reach. A breakout from this range is required for gold prices to establish direction. We look for a downside breakout below 1280 in order to confirm the corrective move toward the 1250 handle. To the upside, the resistance at 1290 is likely to keep gold prices in check.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 28-01-2019, 10:02
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

Despite initial weakness observed in response to a dovish ECB press conference from Draghi, which saw the ECB chief acknowledging building downside risks to the eurozone, EUR managed to post a strong reversal on Friday.

EUR strengthened in response to the sell-off in USD as the market braces for a more cautious tone from the Fed at the January FOMC meeting this week.


EURUSD


EURUSD is at an interesting point. Having recently broken out of the bearish channel which has framed price action since the start of last year, EURUSD retested the broken channel top last week and bounced. For now, it seems price is continuing to track the short-term bullish channel, putting focus on an eventual further test of 1.1569.

GBPUSD


GBPUSD has now firmly broken out of the falling wedge pattern that had framed price action over the last four months and is well on its way to testing the Q3 2018 top at 1.3304. If price falls back from here initially, bulls will be looking to use the 1.2990 level as a base for a further run higher, targeting a test of the next key resistance at the 1.3756 level.

XAUUSD


The rising trend line from 2015 lows managed to keep gold supported over the last month leading to an eventual break of the 1298.29 level resistance. While above here, focus is on a test of further resistance at the 1325.96 level and above there the multi-year highs of 1365.53. To the downside, any sell-off is likely to find support at the 1243.90 level.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 29-01-2019, 07:32
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The market is bracing itself for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, with light trading volume expected until then.

In line with recent Fed commentary, the market is expecting policy to remain unchanged along with a more cautious tone.

Fed chairman Powell has recently expressed his view that rates will be on hold for now while the Fed monitors developing factors.

In other market focus, UK PM Theresa May will submit her alternative Brexit plan before parliament today.

Following the government’s historic defeat just over a week ago, the odds are stacked against May, and the risks of a “no deal” Brexit remain at large.


EURUSD


EURUSD continues to rally following Friday’s impressive gains. For now, it seems price is continuing to track the short-term bullish channel, putting focus on an eventual further test of 1.1569. Should topside momentum run out, bears will need to see a break of 1.1217 to encourage fresh downside momentum.

GBPUSD


GBPUSD has seen a pause in momentum ahead of the Commons vote later today. For now, focus remains on further upside with an eventual test of the Q3 2018 top at 1.3304. If price falls back from here initially, bulls will be looking to use the 1.2990 level as a base for a further run higher, targeting a test of the next key resistance at the 1.3756 level.

XAUUSD


Weakness in USD ahead of the FOMC keeps gold above the 1298.29 resistance level which is now holding as support. While above here, focus is on a test of further resistance at the 1325.96 level, and above there the multi-year highs of 1365.53. To the downside, any sell-off is likely to find support at the 1243.90 level.

Last edited by Orbex; 29-01-2019 at 07:34.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 30-01-2019, 08:12
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The economic data on the day was sparse. Spain’s unemployment rate fell slightly to 14.5% which was better than the forecasts of 14.6%. The NY trading session showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 120.0, below forecasts of 125.0 and down from 126.6 previously.

Crude oil prices jumped on the news that the U.S. government imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil firm, PDVSA. WTI Crude oil settled at $53.31 on Tuesday.

The British pound was seen posting declines for a second consecutive day as British lawmakers rejected a deal that would postpone the Brexit deadline in case no deal was reached with the EU.

Earlier today, Japan’s retail sales report showed an increase of 1.3% on the year, beating forecasts of a 0.9% increase.

Australia’s inflation report for the fourth quarter ending December 2018 showed a 0.5% increase. This was a slightly better reading compared to forecasts of a 0.4% increase.

The European trading session ahead will see the flash GDP estimates from France coming out. The GDP data covers the fourth quarter of last year. Economists forecast that French GDP slowed to a pace of 0.2% during the period.

The German Gfk consumer climate data is followed by import prices and a preliminary inflation report.

The NY trading session will see the ADP private payrolls report coming out. Private sector hiring is expected to rise 180k for January.

Later in the evening, the FOMC meeting will be concluded by the release of the Fed’s statement and a press conference. No changes are expected at today’s meeting.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1436): The EURUSD currency pair is seen maintaining strong gains following the decline below 1.1334 level of support. Having breached the resistance at 1.1397, the common currency is expected to post further gains. The next main resistance is seen at 1.1461 which could be tested in the near term. However, we expect that the EURUSD will settle into a range within the said levels unless price breaks out strongly above 1.1461.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7185): The AUDUSD currency pair was seen retracing the gains as price action is back near the resistance level of 0.7191. This would mark the second retest of this level as resistance. As long as this resistance holds, the AUDUSD could be seen posting further declines. The lower support at 0.7022 remains a key level of interest. Establishing support at this level would indicate that the bottom is in place for AUDUSD. Alternately, a breakout above 0.7191 would signal further gains targeting 0.7292.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1312.99): Gold prices have continued to post strong gains as price action was seen trading near the 1312 level. Further gains could potentially push gold prices toward the 1322 level in the near term. However, there is a possibility that gold prices could post some declines back to the 1296 level where support could now be established.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 31-01-2019, 08:23
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

Private sector hiring, as measured by ADP/Moody’s showed a headline print of 213k for January. This beat the median estimates which pointed to a 180k increase during the period.

The U.S. pending home sales report showed a monthly decline of 2.2% which was worse than the forecasts of a 0.8% increase. Pending home sales declined following a 0.9% revised reading for the month before.

Join our responsible trading community - Open your Orbex account now!

The FOMC meeting was held yesterday where interest rates were left unchanged as widely expected. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell clarified that the Fed did not change course on its monetary policy due to Trump’s comments.

“What we care about … is doing our job for the American people and using our tools,” Powell said at the press conference.

The central bank signaled that it would remain patient in hiking interest rates indicating that rates will remain steady until at least the second quarter of this year.

Looking ahead, the economic data during the Asian trading session showed that Australia’s import prices grew 0.5% on the quarter beating estimates of a 0.3% increase.

China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports released today showed an increase of 49.5 and 54.7 respectively.

Data from the eurozone on the day will see the release of the German retail sales for December. Economists forecast that retail sales declined 0.5% during the month.

Later in the day, the flash GDP and inflation estimates from Spain will be coming out followed by the eurozone’s flash GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2018. Economists forecast that the eurozone’s GDP rose 0.2% on the quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimates. The unemployment rate in the eurozone is expected to hold steady at 7.9%.

The NY trading session will see the release of the monthly GDP numbers from Canada. Growth is forecast to have contracted 0.1% during the month.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1493): The euro was seen posting strong gains on Wednesday following the reversal off the intraday lows near 1.1413. Price action is seen maintaining the bullish momentum in the near term with the next resistance level seen at 1.1575. Any near term declines could be seen holding near 1.1461 where support is now likely to be established. Overall, the EURUSD currency pair remains trading flat near the current levels. However, a rebound off 1.1461 could potentially shift the bias to the upside.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7253): The AUDUSD currency pair reversed losses and managed to close above 0.7191 level of resistance. This has put the next resistance level at 0.7292 within target. We expect the AUDUSD to test this level of resistance in the near term before price action is likely to settle into a range within the said support and resistance levels. To the downside, support is likely to be established near 0.7191 which could be tested in the near term. Considering that the lower support at 0.7022 has not been tested for support, we expect to see some risk to the upside.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1318.43): Gold prices maintained the gains on Wednesday as price action closed at 1319 before posting intraday highs of 1323. The main resistance level is seen around 1335 – 1328 level which could be tested in the near term. There is a possibility that the bullish momentum could be easing near the highs as gold looks to post a modest correction to establish support around the 1300 level in the near term. However, the main support is seen at the 1280 handle which has held firmly so far. The hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart also validates the possible easing of the momentum in the near term.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 06-02-2019, 08:13
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

Data from the Eurozone continued to disappoint. However, the final services PMI ticked higher, rising to 51.2 which beat estimates of an unchanged print at 50.8 from the month before.

However, retail sales fell 1.6% on the month in December which was slightly worse than the median estimates of a 1.5% decline.

The UK’s services sector showed that business activity eased to 50.1 on the index, missing estimates of an increase to 51.1.

The economic calendar today starts with the release of Germany’s factory orders report. Factory orders should increase by 0.3% on the month following a 1.0% decline in November 2018. An uptick in the factory orders report could potentially soothe the declines in the euro currency given the downbeat data over the week.

The NY trading session will see the release of Canada’s building permits. Economists forecast that building permits fell 0.9% in December. This following a 2.6% increase the month before.

Later in the day, the Ivey PMI report from Canada is due and is forecast to show a decline in business activity. The Ivey PMI index is expected to slide to 56.4 from 59.7 previously.

The overnight trading session will see the release of New Zealand‘s employment figures for the fourth quarter of 2018. Economists forecast that New Zealand’s unemployment rate will rise to 4.1% up from 3.9% in the third quarter. The quarterly employment change should increase by 0.3% marking a slower pace from 1.1% previously.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1400): The EURUSD currency pair maintained the gradual declines. Price action pushed lower and is likely to test the support level at 1.1390. A retest of this previously established resistance level for support could potentially stem the declines in the near term. A break down below the support could, however, push the euro currency lower. The next main support is at 1.1300 which could be tested in the near term on a clear breakdown below 1.1390.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7179): The Australian dollar attempted to rally on the intraday, testing highs of 0.7264. However, price action reversed the gains and fell back to the support level of 0.7191. At the time of writing, the AUDUSD currency pair briefly tested below the support level. A confirmed breach of this support could potentially post a decline toward the 0.7022 support. However, we expect to see some consolidation taking place near the support ahead of further declines

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1314.09): Gold prices attempted to post a recovery but price action stalled near the resistance area of 1316. After briefly testing this resistance area, gold prices are currently trading flat. The consolidation could eventually break down lower. The possible bearish flag pattern which looks to be forming below 1316 could see gold prices testing lows of 1297. Alternately, to the upside, the gains face a limit unless gold breaks out above the resistance area of 1321 – 1316 level.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 07-02-2019, 08:23
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. dollar posted gains on Wednesday. Economic data on the day showed that German factory orders fell 1.6% on the month missing estimates of a 0.3% decline. Revisions to the previous month’s report showed an upward revision of a 0.2% decline from 1.0% decline previously reported.

Canada’s building permits rose 6.0% on the month beating estimates of a 0.9% decline and extended gains from a revised 2.1% increase from the month before. The Ivey PMI fell to 54.7 from 59.7 previously missing estimates by a substantial margin.

Act_TradeIdeas

In the U.S., the trade balance figures showed that the trade deficit narrowed in December to 49.3 billion. However, this was below estimates.

Mixed data
The overnight trading session saw the New Zealand quarterly employment report coming out. Data showed that the labor market reversed most of the gains made from the third quarter of 2018.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the fourth quarter following a revised unemployment rate of 4.0% in the previous quarter. The quarterly employment change rose just 0.1%.

Later in the night, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell was speaking. In his speech, Powell said that the U.S. economy was now in a good place. Powell, however, did not make any direct references to monetary policy.

The European session starts off with the release of the German industrial production figures. Forecasts show that industrial production increased 0.8%, reversing some of the declines in activity from the month before.

The ECB will be releasing its economic bulletin. Investors will be looking into the assessment of the central bank on the Eurozone’s economy and inflation forecasts.

The Bank of England will be holding its monetary policy meeting today. No changes are expected to the interest rates, but the Bank of England is likely to take a hawkish stance signaling a rate hike soon.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet today.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1363): The EURUSD currency pair closed bearish for the third consecutive day. Price action broke past the support at 1.1390 level and might retest the January 24 lows at 1.1300 potentially. Establishing support at this previous low could stall the declines for the moment. However, a break down below 1.1300 level could see the EURUSD extending the declines even lower. In the near term, the breached support at 1.1390 could be tested for resistance on a rebound.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7098): The Australian dollar extended the declines after price action broke past the lower support at 0.7191. The drops came after a brief period of consolidation between 0.7191 and 0.7292 levels of support and resistance respectively. The recent break down below the support could now see the Australian dollar extending the declines lower to test the support at 0.7022. A retest of this level to establish support could potentially mark the downside correction in prices. Alternately, any short term recovery in price could see the AUDUSD retesting the breached support level at 0.7191 to establish resistance.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1307.08): Gold prices closed bearish on Wednesday with price action extending the declines following a brief period of consolidation just below the resistance level of 1316 level. In the short term, a reversal could send gold prices to retest the previously held lows at 1310.25. As long as this level holds out as resistance, we could expect gold prices to test the next support that could be formed at 1303.05. The longer-term downside target in gold remains at 1280 level.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 08-02-2019, 08:13
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

The U.S. dollar was seen maintaining the bullish gains for the sixth consecutive day. The markets were seen trading mixed on the day.

The Bank of England held its monetary policy meeting yesterday. The central bank left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. Growth forecasts were cut, and the central bank said that inflation would remain above 2.0% at least until 2020.

Join our responsible trading community - Open your Orbex account now!

The BoE, however, noted that rate hikes were warranted in the event of a Brexit deal.

There were new developments on the Brexit narrative. The EU and the UK agreed to hold a fresh round of talks on Brexit. However, the EU made it clear that the Irish backstop arrangement was not up for negotiation.

British PM May is expected to bring a new Brexit plan up for vote next week.

The German industrial production figures showed a 0.4% decline marking a drop for the fourth consecutive month. The declines were, however, not as bad as a revised 1.3% drop the month before. Overall, the data showed that the industrial activity fell into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Earlier today, Japan’s cash earnings report showed a 1.8% increase on the year, which beat estimates of a 1.7% increase. Household spending increased just 0.1% on the year falling well below the estimated 0.8% increase.

The European trading session will see the release of the German trade balance figures followed by the French industrial production data.

The NY trading session will see the release of Canada’s employment details. Unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 5.7% while the monthly employment change is forecast to show a headline print of 6.5k.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1338): The euro currency continued to post declines, dragged lower by weaker economic data from Germany. After clearing the support at 1.1390, the euro currency extended strong declines. This puts the common currency on track to potentially test the lows of 1.1300. Establishing support at this level could lead to some bullish bias in the currency pair. To the upside, the recently breached support at 1.1390 could serve as resistance.

AUDUSD Intraday Analysis


AUDUSD (0.7064): The Australian dollar continued to post strong declines after price action fell below the support at 0.7191. The declines come after the minor rising trend line was broken. In the near term, we could expect a retracement to this trend line break-out level. To the downside, the support at 0.7022 remains a key level that could be tested in the near term.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1309.89): Gold prices were bullish yesterday as price tried to reverse some of the losses from the day before. However, the recent gains are likely to be shortlived as long as the current minor resistance at 1310.75 is not breached. To the downside, gold prices will need to push lower and break past the recent lows at 1304 in order to post further declines. The next main support is seen coming in at 1280 which was previously established. To the upside, if gold prices breakout above 1310.75, then we could expect to see gold prices advancing to test the next main resistance at 1316.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 26-02-2019, 08:06
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis January

Economic data on Monday was relatively sparse on the day. The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney gave a scheduled speech. Most of his speech highlighted the markets post-Brexit.

The British PM May was seen delaying the Brexit vote, and the next voting is expected to happen on March 12. Meanwhile, two British lawmakers have pushed for a vote to postpone the Brexit deadline of March 29th. Some lawmakers said that if PM May cannot get a Brexit deal approved by March 13th, they would force her to extend the deadline.


Mixed data from the US
From the United States, the final wholesale inventories rose by 1.1% on the month which was above expectations of a 0.3% increase. President Trump raised the market optimism by noting that the U.S. was close to agreeing on a deal with China. The markets await more news on this.

President Trump’s tweet to OPEC that the world could not take on higher oil prices sent oil prices plummeting on the day. WTI Crude oil fell over 2.86% on the day following this.

Earlier today, the Bank of Japan’s core inflation data came out. Data showed that while economists forecasted a 0.6% increase, core inflation rose by 0.5%. This follows the previous month’s 0.4% increase in inflation.

The European trading session will see the UK’s inflation report hearing coming out. The NY trading session will start off with Canada’s corporate profits due. Data from the U.S. will cover the building permits data which should see building permits rise at a slower pace of 1.29 million. Housing starts should increase by 1.25 million.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence report is out later, and confidence should rise to 124.3 on the index, up from 120.2.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to give his testimony later in the evening, followed by the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index due later in the evening.

EURUSD Intraday Analysis


EURUSD (1.1357): The EURUSD currency pair remains firm, trading above the 1.1327 level of support. Price action has repeatedly been attempting to test the upside, but price action has been rejected. This has led to a minor resistance level forming at 1.1365. A breakout above this level is required for the EURUSD to continue the gains to the upside. The next main target should be at 1.1435. To the downside, the support area looks strong enough to hold the declines for the moment. However, if the euro breaks down lower, we anticipate a retest of 1.1256 level.

USDJPY Intraday Analysis


USDJPY (110.83): The USDJPY posted some modest gains as price finally tested the upside target at 111.21 albeit rather briefly. Price posted a strong reversal off this resistance level with the past few sessions on the 4-hour chart pushing lower. With the upside target on a test, the USDJPY could potentially seek to retest the lower support at 109.74. A retest of this support will, however, keep the bias intact. The USDJPY trades flat currently within the said range.

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis


XAUUSD (1329.02): Gold traded subdued on Monday after price action posted strong declines off the highs near 1346.62 previously. With the support at 1321.27 holding the drops, for now, we expect to see some consolidation taking place. At the same time, as long as the support holds, the bias remains to the upside for a solid retest of the resistance level. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have posted a modest correction before reversing course again. However, the current price action is looking to show a bearish flag pattern that could be forming. If the support at 1321.27 gives way, this could validate the bearish momentum in gold and signal a move to the downside. The next main support comes at the round number support of 1300 followed by a step to 1280.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Intraday Technical Analysis December Orbex Forex Analysis 11 21-12-2018 08:17
Intraday Technical Analysis November Orbex Forex Analysis 16 29-11-2018 08:52
EUR/USD Technical Analysis for January 24, 2017 xtreamforex Forex Analysis 0 24-01-2017 08:56
Daily Technical Analysis Fri,January 27, 2012 fxpulsation Forex Analysis 0 27-01-2012 10:38
Daily Technical Analysis Thu,January 26, 2012 fxpulsation Forex Analysis 0 26-01-2012 12:47


All times are GMT. The time now is 06:56.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.