Forex Forums | ForexLasers.com


Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRADING > Forex Analysis


Intraday Technical Analysis December

Forex Analysis


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
Old 03-12-2018, 08:11
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. Dollar managed to erase some of the losses from Thursday. Price action managed to post a reversal sending most of the currencies to close weaker or subdued by Friday.

Data from the Eurozone showed that import prices in Germany rose 1.0% on the month. This beat estimates of a 0.4% increase and showed an acceleration from 0.4% previously.

Retail sales were, however, lower, falling 0.3% missing estimates of a 0.4% increase. The flash inflation estimates for the Eurozone registered a dip as inflation rose just 2.0% in November against estimates of a 2.1% increase. Core inflation was also weaker at 1.0%.



The NY trading session showed that Canada’s GDP contracted 0.1% in September on a monthly basis. This brought the third quarter GDP to rise just 2.0% in the three months ending September.

The G20 summit concluded over the weekend. The big news out of the event was that the United States and China agreed to a 90-day truce. This comes as both nations agreed to work out the trade differences. This meant that the planned hike on tariffs on over $200 billion worth of goods from China which is due to take effect from Jan 1 would now be postponed.

Meanwhile, China agreed to increase its purchase of U.S. goods including agriculture, energy and industrial products to reduce the trade deficit.

Looking ahead, the first trading day for December will see the Manufacturing PMI reports from the Eurozone. The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI is forecast to remain steady at 51.5, marking an unchanged print from the month before.

In the U.S. the ISM’s manufacturing PMI is expected to ease to 57.5 from 57.7 in October. Construction spending data is forecast to rise 0.4% on the month.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1351): The EURUSD currency pair was bearish on Friday as price action was seen giving up the gains made from the previous days. The euro fell back to the support area of 1.1315 – 1.1300 level. With price back at the familiar support level, the common currency could be seen attempting to post another reversal off this level. With the resistance level at 1.1435 not being tested recently, we could expect this to be the upside target. If the EURUSD slips below the support level, then the common currency can extend declines down to 1.1220 level.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2771): The British pound continues to consolidate around the support area of 1.2747 region. However, price action is starting to squeeze out from the falling trend line which also forms a descending triangle pattern. A break down below this support level could indicate further declines in the GBPUSD. To the upside, a clear break of the falling trend line to the upside is needed for the GBPUSD to post any gains. The upside target of 1.3086 remains the prime target.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1225.14): Gold prices gave up the gains logged from the previous day on Friday. However, price action posted a reversal just above the last support level of 1213.50. If price closes above 1223.50, the reversal would be confirmed. Gold prices will then most likely attempt to test the upper resistance level at 1242.25. Failure to clear the temporary resistance/support area of 1223.50 could, however, increase the risk of the downside. The lower support at 1204.00 will be the support level of interest.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-12-2018, 08:20
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. Dollar was seen trading a bit volatile on Tuesday. Economic data on the day showed that consumer prices in Switzerland fell 0.3% on the month. This was worse than forecasts of a 0.1% decline. The data comes ahead of next week’s quarterly SNB meeting.

In the UK, the pound sterling jumped on initial reports from an EU court official who said that the UK did not require EU’s permission to cancel Brexit. However, the gains were quickly erased. Construction PMI data showed a modest increase to 53.4 in November, which came out better than the forecasts of a 52.5 increase.

Producer prices in the Eurozone soared 0.8% on the month in November beating forecasts of a 0.4% increase. Previous month’s PPI was also revised higher to show a 0.6% increase.

The NY trading session was relatively quiet. The USD eased amid new concerns that the growth was faltering. President Trump once again ramped up pressure on the U.S. China trade talks reminding about the 90-day truce period. Both nations are set to start negotiations in a few weeks.

Earlier today, Australia’s quarterly GDP report showed that the economy expanded 0.3% in the three months ending September. This was lower than the forecast of a 0.6% increase as growth slowed from the second quarter’s robust growth of 0.9%.

Looking ahead, the ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at an event. His speech comes ahead of next week’s ECB monetary policy meeting. The Eurozone’s services PMI numbers will be coming out later in the day. Final services PMI for the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged.

In the UK, services activity is expected to rise modestly to 52.5 from 52.3 in October. Retail sales in the Eurozone is expected to tick higher to 0.2% increase on the month.

The NY trading session will see the Fed Chair giving his annual two-day testimony to Congress. Powell’s speech will come under scrutiny after his recent comments about Fed funds rate nearing the neutral level.

Later, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold its monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the BoC’s interest rate decision.

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI report is forecast to ease to 59.2 from 60.3 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1324): The EURUSD continues to consolidate with price action seen extending the declines. The common currency could be seen retesting the support area of 1.1315 – 1.1300 level. We expect a rebound off this level as the ranging price action is maintained. Failure to hold the declines at the support level could, however, push the EURUSD lower. This would open the way for price action to fall back to test the previously established lows at 1.1220.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2696): The GBPUSD currency pair turned volatile on Tuesday. The pound sterling briefly attempted to break past the falling trend line but turned lower promptly. This sent the GBPUSD down to the lower support level at 1.2683 level. As this lower support is being tested, there is a risk that the GBPUSD could extend the declines even lower. However, with volatility rising, we could expect to see a strong breakout in either direction. For the moment, this bias is to the downside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1234.73): Gold prices posted strong gains as price action briefly touched the 1242.25 level of resistance. However, as price briefly retested this resistance level, we expect to see a firm close near 1242.25. To the downside, we expect the support at 1227.10 to be tested. As a result, it is ideal to look for short positions around the 1242.25 level as gold prices could start a correction lower. Below 1227.10, further declines could push gold prices down to the previous support at 1217.99.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-12-2018, 08:12
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

Trading in the U.S. markets were subdued as equities, and some other exchanges were closed due to the National day of mourning for the former President George H. W. Bush.

In the Eurozone, the services PMI showed a modest increase in activity as the index rose to 53.4 beating estimates of 53.1 and advancing from the month before. Retail sales data also came out better, rising 0.3% on the month although previous month’s report was revised lower to show a 0.5% decline.

The Bank of Canada held its interest rates unchanged at 1.75%. The Central Bank flagged concerns about the trade which sent the Canadian Dollar to post losses on the day.

Earlier in the day, Australia’s retail sales showed a 0.3% increase for November. The data matched estimates but previous month’s retail sales numbers were revised lower to show a 0.1% increase.

The European trading session will start with the German factory orders which are forecast to shrink 0.4% in November. This follows a 0.3% increase the month before.

The NY trading session will see the release of the private payrolls report from ADP. Forecasts point to private payrolls rising 196k in November. This follows a 227k increase the month before. The Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz is due to speak later in the afternoon.

ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI is due later and is forecast to show an increase to 59.2 for November. This marks a modest slowdown from 60.3 in the previous month. Factory orders in the U.S. are set to fall 1.9% on the month.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1343): The EURUSD maintains a sideways range with price action turning flat for the past few daily sessions. The common currency touched down to the support level at 1.1315 – 1.1300 briefly before pulling back higher. However, with the strong consolidation, we expect that the support could eventually pave the way for further declines in the near term. A strong close below 1.1315 – 1.1300 could signal a drop down to 1.1220 level to re-establish support. To the upside, the trend line which is currently being followed needs to be breached to confirm the upside.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2723): The GBPUSD currency pair is seen now trading within the support area of 1.2747 – 1.2683 region. We expect price action to maintain the range within this level as price fails to breakout from the upside. Given that price has been consolidating, a break down from the current support area could potentially trigger further losses to the downside. A close below 1.2683 could trigger the descending triangle pattern. This puts the minimum downside target to 1.2500.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1240.08): Gold was seen recovering from the modest declines posted on Tuesday, Price action reversed those losses and is looking to retest the resistance level at 1242.25 level. Establishing resistance with a firm retest could pave the way for a downside correction in prices. The lower support at 1227.10 remains the prime target. A reversal around this level could keep gold prices turning flat and trading within the said levels. If gold prices posted further declines, we anticipate the price to test the lower support at 1217.00.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-12-2018, 09:28
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. Dollar was trading mixed on Thursday. Economic data on the day showed that U.S. private sector firms added 179k jobs during November. This was below estimates of a 200k expectation. Previous month’s data was revised down to 225k from 227k previously. The ADP report comes ahead of today’s payrolls data.

Elsewhere, German factory orders increased by 0.3% on the month beating estimates of a 0.4% decline. Previous month’s data was revised down to 0.1%.

Act_TradeIdeas

OPEC, which met in Vienna decided to cut oil production. However, the cut in production was less than the market expectations as it pushed oil prices lower on the day.

The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report showed that activity rose to 60.7 on the index. This beat a conservative forecast and non-manufacturing activity increased from 60.3 previously.

U.S. factory orders, however, showed a decline, falling by 2.1% which was more than the forecasts of a 1.9% decline.

Data from Japan earlier today showed that average cash earnings increased by 1.5% on the month. The European session stats with the industrial production figures from Germany and France. German industrial production is expected to rise by 0.3% on the month while French industrial production is expected to increase by 0.8%, partly reversing a 1.8% decline from the previous month.

Inflation expectations from the UK will be coming out later in the day while the final revised GDP for the third quarter is due from the Eurozone. No changes are expected as the GDP is forecast to remain steady at 0.2%.

The NY trading session starts off with the labor market data from Canada, and the U.S. Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.8%.

The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% as the economy is forecast to add 200k jobs in November. Wages are forecast to rise by 0.3% on the month, slightly accelerating from the 0.2% increase previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1372): The EURUSD currency pair has been bouncing off the support level at 1.3150 – 1.3100 region. Price action is seen respecting the falling trend line, but overall, the common currency is expected to maintain the sideways range. The resistance level at 1.1435 remains a key level of interest which could be tested in the near term. There is a risk that the EURUSD could break below the support level. This could potentially pave the way for further declines as the common currency could be seen targeting 1.1220.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2768): The GBPUSD currency pair continues its consolidation. However, price action managed to break past the falling trend line and is seen currently pulling back. A retest of the support at 1.2745 could establish the upside if the gains hold at the support. To the upside, this opens the way for GBPUSD to test the previously established resistance level at 1.3088 region potentially.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1239.73): Gold prices recovered from the interday pull back to advance gains. Price action retested the resistance level of 1242.25 once again only to reverse the gains. The current pullback could see yet another attempt to breach the resistance level. Failure to close above the resistance level could potentially confirm the downside correction to 1227.10. Alternately, a successful break of the resistance level could trigger further gains as gold is likely to target 1280.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-12-2018, 08:24
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. Dollar extended gains on Monday amid a somewhat slow trading day and lack of any clear fundamentals to push the USD higher. Gold prices retreated from Friday’s highs, and it was a similar story for the Euro currency as well.

GDP data from the UK showed a monthly increase of 0.1% matching estimates. This came amid the previous month showing that the GDP flatlined. Other economic data over the day included manufacturing production which fell 0.9% which was worse than the forecasts of a flat print. Construction output fared modestly better, falling just 0.2% against estimates of a 0.4% decline.


Industrial production was down by 0.6%, more than the forecasts of a 0.4% decline. Brexit continued to hog the limelight as the British Prime minister, Theresa May called off the scheduled Brexit vote to be held in the UK Parliament tomorrow. The sterling fell amid renewed concerns of a no-Brexit deal.

In the NY trading session, Canada’s building permits fell by 0.2% on the month, in line with estimates. This comes after building permits rose 0.4% the month before.

Looking ahead, the economic data for today is relatively quiet. The European trading session will see the UK’s labor market data coming out. Average earnings index is expected to rise 0.2% on the month, marking a steady pace of increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, unchanged from the previous period.

The ZEW economic sentiment report from Germany is forecast to show the index in the sentiment falling to -25 from 24.1 previously. This would mark a continued pessimistic outlook among German business firms. The Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment report is also due and is expected to fall to -23.2 from -22.0 previously.

The NY trading session will see the producer prices data. PPI is expected to remain flat for November while the core PPI is expected to rise 0.1%. This marks a modest increase compared to the 0.5% gain posted previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1368): The EURUSD currency pair is seen maintaining the consolidation near the current levels. Price briefly broke past the falling trend line only for the gains to be capped near the resistance level of 1.1435. This promptly resulted in the common currency posting declines and falling back below the trend line. The sideways range within 1.1435 – 1.1315 remains in play as a result. We expect the EURUSD to retest the support at 1.1315 once again potentially. A breakout from this level is needed for the currency pair to establish the next direction in the trend.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2577): The GBPUSD extended declines on the day as price action finally broke out from the lower support area of 1.2747 – 1.2683. The cable fell to lows of 1.2511 before pulling back higher. However, the Stochastics oscillator is signaling that the decline is oversold and could potentially trigger a move to the upside. The GBPUSD could be seen retesting the breached support area to establish resistance. If the resistance fails to give way to the gain, we expect the GBPUSD to maintain the downside in price.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1246.54): Gold prices extended declines off the highs close to the 1250 handle. Price action is seen rebound off the support level at 1242.25. We expect the gains to form a lower high potentially. This could signal correction to the lower support at 1227.10. If gold prices manage to post a strong rebound leading to further gains, we could expect gold to test the $1250 handle. However, the overall momentum is likely to ease near these levels.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 13-12-2018, 08:16
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

Brexit hogged the limelight on Wednesday as British PM May faced a vote of no-confidence. Although there was a surprise in the decision, this was widely speculated. The sterling initially slipped on the news only to recover strongly later towards the evening.

The outcome of the no-confidence vote was that the PM May managed to hold her ground with 200 votes in her favor and 117 against her. However, uncertainties remain on the final Brexit deal which is yet to be approved by the UK parliament.

Act_TradeIdeas

Industrial production in the Eurozone rose 0.2% matching estimates. This followed a revised 0.6% decline from the month before. The U.S. headline inflation was flat for November, as per estimates. This followed a 0.3% increase the month back. The core inflation rate was also up 0.2% as per estimates, and the increase was the same pace as seen in the previous month.

Investors look to a busy day in the markets amid a line up of central bank meetings. The day starts with the final inflation figures from Germany and France. Consumer prices in Germany are forecast to rise 0.1% on the month while French CPI is expected to fall 0.2%.

The Swiss national bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting today. No changes are expected as the labor rate is forecast to remain unchanged at -075%. This SNB’s meeting is followed by the European central bank’s monetary policy meeting.

The ECB is all set to announce an end to its QE program at today’s meeting. However, there could be a cautious tone to the ECB’s forward guidance. President Mario Draghi will be speaking later in the day.

The NY trading session will see the U.S. import price data. Import prices are forecast to fall 1.0% in November.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1365): The EURUSD currency pair was trading somewhat subdued after briefly attempting to rally during the day. Price action was seen once again testing the falling trend line, and the 4-hour session posted a reversal. We expect the euro to remain weak into the ECB’s meeting but expect a possible rebound off the support level near 1.1315 – 1.1300 region. Failure to hold the declines could potentially risk pushing the EURUSD lower to test the previous lows at 1.1200 level. To the upside, the resistance at 1.14350 needs to be cleared for any signs of a breakout to the upside.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2616): The GBPUSD currency managed to lift off the intraday lows and closed higher, just below the recently breached support level of 1.2683. The reversal in the sterling came after the UK’s no-confidence vote saw PM May winning the vote. However, with Brexit still significant uncertainty, the GBPUSD could potentially remain subdued below the price level. We expect a possible retest of 1.2683 for the price level to be tested as resistance.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1244.77): Gold prices have turned flat following the strong rally to 1248 region. The support at 1242.25 is seen holding up for the moment. This could potentially keep the bias balanced as gold prices could be seen breaking out higher above 1248.00. To the downside, a clear break of the support is needed for gold prices to retest the support area of 1227.10.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 14-12-2018, 08:11
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The Swiss National Bank held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The Central Bank kept its LIBOR rate unchanged at -0.75% as widely expected. The Central Bank, however, lowered its inflation outlook.

The ECB was the next central bank to hold its monetary policy meeting. The Central Bank announced that it was ending its QE program but gave a cautious outlook on the economy and inflation prospects. The Euro did not react much to the news.

The NY trading session saw the U.S. import prices falling by 1.6% which was more than the forecast of a decline of 1.0%.

The Tankan manufacturing index was at 19, unchanged from the previous quarter. Economists polled expected manufacturing to fall to 18. The non-manufacturing index rose to 24 from 22 during the last quarter, and the data beat the estimates of a decline to 21.

The European trading session will see the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI for December. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise slightly to 51.9 while services PMI is expected to remain steady at 53.4, unchanged from the previous month.

The NY trading session will see the retail sales numbers out of the U.S. Core retail sales are forecast to rise 0.2% in November. This follows a sharp 0.7% increase the month before. Headline retail sales are expected to grow 0.1% on the month, slower than the 0.8% increase seen the month before.

Later in the evening, the flash services and manufacturing PMI for the U.S. will be released by Markit.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1360): The EURUSD currency pair was slightly muted to the outcome of the ECB’s decision. Price action, therefore, remains trading flat and near the falling trend line which has managed to hold the gains. In the near term, the EURUSD is expected to retest the lower support at 1.1315 – 1.1300 once again. Failure to break out above the trend line would keep price action trading flat at the current levels. There is a risk that the common currency could break the support which could open the way for further declines to 1.1220.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2631): The GBPUSD currency pair attempted to retest the breached support area of 1.2683 briefly before turning flat. We expect the cable to retest this level more firmly. Failure to break out above 1.2683 could potentially keep price action subdued. However, we expect the declines to be limited for the moment as the bias to the upside builds up. To the downside, GBPUSD will need to break past the previously established lows near 1.2470 to post further declines.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1242.08): Gold prices have stayed flat near the 1242.25 level of support. This comes as the consolidation near the top has also formed a bullish flag pattern. A successful breakout to the upside could potentially trigger further strong gains. However, watch for price action near the 1242.25 level. A break down below this level could trigger declines in gold pushing price action to test the lower support at 1228.85 – 1228.00 level where support is most likely to be retested once again.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 17-12-2018, 07:53
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. Dollar posted strong gains on Friday as investors piled into the greenback amid global concerns. This led to most of the currencies giving up the gains logged from earlier in the week.

Economic data on the day showed that the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI was at 51.4, which was lower than the forecasts of 51.9. Flash services PMI was also the same, rising to 51.4 and came in below than estimates of 53.4.

Data from the U.S. showed that core retail sales rose by 0.2% matching estimates. Previous month’s data rose by 1.0%. Headline retail sales were up by 0.2% which was better than the forecasts of a 0.1% increase. Past month’s data was revised higher to show a 1.1% increase.

Industrial production data showed a 0.6% increase beating forecasts of a 0.3% increase. The data follows the downward revised estimates of a 0.2% decline.

Looking ahead, the economic data on the day will see the Eurozone’s final inflation data coming out for November. Inflation is forecast to remain steady at 2.0%. Data for the rest of the day covers the second tier data.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1306): The Euro currency was seen trending lower on Friday as the USD posted strong gains. Price action briefly broke past the support level at 1.1315 – 1.1300 only to recover those losses by Friday’s close. With the support being breached, the EURUSD is likely to push lower. The previously held lows near 1.12200 remains a key target of interest to the downside. To the upside, a close above the falling trend line will see some upside momentum building up. However, the resistance near 1.1435 remains another key challenge for the Euro.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2579): The GBPUSD continues to trade below the recently breached support level of 1.2683. Price action posted a modest rebound which saw a brief retest of the breached support level. We expect a solid retest of this level to establish resistance. The GBPUSD is most likely to trade below this level with the potential to break past the previously established lows of 1.2485. However, the cable could settle into a sideways range in the near term.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1236.87): Gold prices slipped below the support at 1242.25 and thus invalidated the bullish flag pattern. The breakdown below the support at 1242.25 signals further declines in the near term. The lower support at 1227.10 remains a key target that could be tested for support. Forming support at this level could keep gold prices still biased to the upside. There is a risk that the precious metal could maintain a sideways range within 1242.25 and 1227.10 in the near term.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 18-12-2018, 07:49
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The Euro currency managed to rise as the U.S. Dollar was seen trading weaker. Economic data on the day showed that the final inflation for November rose at a slower pace of 1.9%. This was below the flash estimates which showed a 2.0% increase. The final core inflation rate was however unchanged at 1.0%.

The NY trading session saw the Empire State Manufacturing Index data. The index fell to 10.9 in December down from 23.3 the month before. This was also below the estimates of 20.1.

Ahead of the two day Fed meeting that starts today, President Trump once again expressed his displeasure with the Fed’s plan to hike rates at the Fed meeting this week. This sent the U.S. Dollar falling on the day. The FOMC will be concluding its two-day conference on the 19th of December.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today is relatively quiet.

The German Ifo business climate index is forecast to show a decline to 101.8 on the index. This marks a decline from 102.0 that was registered previously. Canada’s manufacturing sales report kicks off the NY trading session with forecasts pointing to a 0.3% increase on the month.

The U.S. housing data is on the cards next. Building permits are forecast to rise modestly to 1.26 million in November, slightly up from October’s fall to 1.26 million. Housing starts are expected to remain steady at 1.23 million for November.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1351): The EURUSD managed to maintain gains on the day as price action rebounded off the support level. The intraday rally sent the common currency to retest the falling trend line once again. However, we expect this short-term bullish momentum to fade as the EURUSD maintains its range. A breakout from the falling trend line will no doubt see price action testing the resistance level once again at 1.14350.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2627): The GBPUSD currency pair was seen gradually drifting higher. Price action remains subdued below the resistance level of 1.2683. A near-term rebound back to this resistance level could see the price being tested more firmly compared to the initial test at the resistance level. Further downside in the GBPUSD can be expected if price breaks past the previously established low. However, we expect some consolidation to take place that could keep the GBPUSD trading flat for the moment.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1248.76): Gold prices turned bullish on Monday. The sharp rally came following President Trump’s comments on the Fed rate hikes. However, with price action reaching the 1248 handle, we expect the price to post a modest correction to the downside. The support at 1242 remains key to the downside. If gold prices break past the 1248 level of resistance that is currently being tested, a near-term target of 1250 can be further achieved. However, further gains are unlikely to come by unless support is firmly established at 1242.25 handle.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 19-12-2018, 07:44
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. dollar was seen trading weaker on Tuesday. The weakness in the greenback comes ahead of today’s Fed meeting. However, the USD was seen managing to recover some of the losses later in the day.

Economic data on the day showed that the German Ifo business climate fell to 101.0. This missed estimates of 101.8 and was down from 102.0 previously.


Canada’s manufacturing sales were down 0.1% on the month missing the median forecasts and slowed from the 0.2% increase the month before. In the U.S. the building permits rose modestly to 1.33 million which beat the forecasts while housing starts rose 1.26 million on the month.

The UK’s inflation report for November is due today. Economists polled forecast that inflation might have eased to 2.3% on an annualized basis in November. This marks a somewhat slower pace of increase in inflation compared to the 2.4% that was registered in October. Core inflation is expected to also ease to 1.8%, down from 1.9% previously.

The NY trading session will see Canada’s inflation data coming out. Headline inflation is forecast to fall 0.1% after rising 0.3% on the month previously. The annualized inflation is expected to remain at 2.1%.

Later in the day, the housing data continues with the release of the existing home sales report. Existing home sales are forecast to rise just 5.2 million on the month down from 5.22 million previously.

The much-awaited Fed meeting will be underway as the FOMC will be hiking interest rates today to 2.50%. The central bank will also be releasing its economic projections and rate hike plans for the next year.

Following the Fed meeting, later in the overnight session, New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly GDP data. GDP is forecast to rise 0.6% in the third quarter, marking a slower pace of increase.

EURUSD intraday


EURUSD (1.1379): The EURUSD currency pair managed to break out from the falling trend line. A brief decline back to the breakout level saw price action closing with a doji followed by a bullish upside breakout. The price action indicates near-term upside as the EURUSD could be seen testing the resistance level at 1.1435 in the near term. A breakout above 1.14350 is required for price action to continue the upside and potentially shift the trend. Alternately, failure to break the resistance level could allow the EURUSD to maintain its sideways range.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2653): The GBPUSD currency pair was seen edging higher on Tuesday. Price action was seen retesting the breached support level at 1.2683 where resistance is currently formed. Failure to breakout above this level could keep price action subdued. We expect the GBPUSD to maintain the range within 1.2683 and the lows of 1.2491 where support looks to have been formed. There is scope for an upside breakout given the ascending triangle pattern being formed. This would give a minimum upside target toward 1.2806.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1250.91): Gold prices maintained the strong bullish momentum. Price action has managed to clear the previous highs near 1248.00. This could potentially signal further upside. The next main target for gold comes in at the 1280 level. However, for further gains to be established, gold needs to form support at the 1248 region. There is also a risk that the current upside momentum could falter. In this case, we expect gold prices to potentially risk posting a correction toward the 1227 – 1228 level of support.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 20-12-2018, 08:03
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The FOMC held its meeting yesterday, and as widely expected, the Central Bank raised interest rates by another quarter point. This brought the Fed funds rate to 2.25% – 2.50%. As expected, the Central Bank forecast fewer rate hikes for the year ahead. Still, the U.S. Dollar managed to maintain the gains.

UK’s consumer prices rose at a slower pace of 2.3% on the year ending November. This was in line with estimates and is down from the 2.4% registered the month before.

The core inflation rate rose 1.8% matching estimates and down from 1.9% previously. The decline in inflation came due to lower fuel prices.

Canada’s inflation data was also out later in the day. Consumer prices fell 0.4% on the month matching estimates and reversed the 0.3% increase from the month before. The trimmed mean CPI is lower, rising only by 1.9% on an annualized basis compared to 2.1% previously registered.

Economic data from the U.S. saw existing home sales rebounding, rising 5.32 million on the month in November. This was slightly better than the forecasts of 5.20 million.

In the overnight session, New Zealand’s quarterly GDP showed that the economy expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter of the year. This is well below estimates of a 0.6% increase that was the forecast.

It is another busy day for the markets. In the overnight session, Australia’s monthly employment report came out. Earlier today, Australia’s labor market data showed that the economy added 37k jobs during November. This beat forecasts of a 20k increase. October’s data shows 28.7k jobs added. The Australian unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in November from 5.0% previously.

The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy meeting earlier today. The Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. The BoJ Governor Kuroda will speak shortly.

The European session will see the release of the UK’s retail sales report. Retail sales can see an increase of 0.3%. This follow’s October’s decline of 0.5%.

The Bank of England will be holding its monetary policy meeting a few hours later. No changes are expected as the Central Bank is expected to maintain its interest rates steady at 0.75%. The NY trading session is somewhat quiet. The Philly Fed manufacturing index is due, followed by the weekly unemployment claims report.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1382): The EURUSD currency pair tested the highs of 1.1430 before giving up the gains. The declines in the common currency came as price action touched the previously established resistance level. Overall, the EURUSD remains caught trading in the range. The current declines could be seen retesting the falling trendline in the near term. If price posts a rebound off the falling trend line, we could anticipate a potential breakout from the resistance level if it is followed up by a rally. To the downside, the support at 1.1315 remains in place.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2628): The GBPUSD currency pair has been trading somewhat flat after price action tested the resistance level of 1.2683. The sideways range formed between 1.2683 a 1.2491 is expected to remain in place. With the BoE meeting due today, we could, however, expect to see some volatility. A breakout from this range could potentially set up the direction in the next leg of the trend. A close above 1.2683 could likely confirm a short-term shift in the major downtrend while a break down below 1.2491 could signal a continuation to the downside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (144.94): Gold prices briefly tested the highs of 1250 before giving up the gains. Price action, however, retesting the support at the 1240 handle. As long as this support holds, the bias in gold remains to the upside. Yet, if the support at 1240 fails, gold prices could be extending the declines. The lower support at 1227.10 remains a key support area that is pending retest.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 21-12-2018, 08:17
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis December

The U.S. dollar was seen trading volatile a day after the Fed hiked rates. On the economic front, the Bank of Japan’s meeting held yesterday did not see any major changes. The central bank left interest rates unchanged as widely expected.

Data from the UK showed that retail sales increased 1.4% on the month. This beat estimates of a 0.3% increase while the previous month’s data was revised to show a 0.4% decline. The Bank of England held its monetary policy meeting and left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The BoE Governor, however, cautioned that there were increased risks for Brexit as the deadline for March 2019 nears.

Trading the news requires access to extensive market research - and that's what we do best. Open your Orbex account now.
The NY trading session was quiet with only the Philly Fed manufacturing index data coming out. Manufacturing activity eased to 9.4 on the regional index, missing estimates of an increase to 15.1.

Following a busy two days, the markets look to the last trading day of the week. The economic calendar is somewhat busy.

The UK’s current account report will be coming out followed by the final revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. No changes are expected as the UK’s economy is set to have increased by 0.6% in the three months ending September.

Canada’s retail sales and GDP numbers are due later during the NY trading session. Retail sales are forecast to rebound, rising 0.6% on the month following a 0.2% increase previously. Core retail sales are also expected to rise 0.3% during the same period.

The monthly GDP report is due which is expected to show a 0.2% increase in the economy. Data from the U.S. will see the final revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. No changes are expected as the third quarter GDP is set to have increased 3.5%.

The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is also due. Economists polled expect the core PCE price index data to rise 0.2%. Personal spending is expected to rise 0.3%, a somewhat slower pace compared to the 0.6% increase previously. Personal income data is also expected to slow, rising just 0.3% compared to a 0.5% increase the month before.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1445): The EURUSD is seen attempting to breakout past the resistance area of 1.1450 – 1.1435 region. The rebound comes after prices tested the breakout level from the falling trend line. The common currency remains volatile, and with the current test of resistance, price action could move in either direction. A clear breakout above the resistance level could potentially put the EURUSD on track to test the next main level at 1.1700. To the downside, the trend line and the horizontal support will be able to contain the declines.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2650): The GBPUSD remains trading subdued with price action seen firmly retesting the resistance level near 1.2683. As long as this resistance holds, we expect the currency pair to trade flat within the said range. With price action posting a consecutive higher high, watch for the potential ascending triangle pattern being formed. A breakout above 1.2683 could trigger further gains to the upside. The minimum upside target is at 1.2811.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1259.09): Gold prices posted a strong rally on the day on Thursday. Price briefly tested the support at 1242.25 before pushing higher. This could potentially keep gold prices biased to the upside. The next main target could be seen at the 1280 handle. In the event that gold prices fall below 1242.25, we expect the correction to push the price lower to the 1227.10 handle where support is pending a retest.

Last edited by Orbex; 21-12-2018 at 08:20.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Intraday Technical Analysis November Orbex Forex Analysis 16 29-11-2018 08:52
Intraday Analysis October 2018 Orbex Forex Analysis 17 31-10-2018 08:06
Intraday Analysis August 2018 Orbex Forex Analysis 21 31-08-2018 06:57
Intraday Analysis July 2018 Orbex Forex Analysis 14 31-07-2018 07:28
Alpari.com December analysis EURUSD AlpariJose Forex Analysis 2 15-12-2017 00:03


All times are GMT. The time now is 16:42.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.