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  #321  
Old 06-11-2018, 10:57
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NZD/USD: Market expectations and trading scenarios
06/11/2018


From mid-April, the NZD / USD has been trading in a downward channel, falling from a level of 0.7380. After the breakdown of important support levels of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800 started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260), 0.7110 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) NZD / USD decline accelerated. In October, NZD / USD hit a multi-month low near the 0.6430 mark. However, NZD / USD was able to push off from this level of 0.6430 and develop an upward correction, rising to the resistance level of 0.6700 (September highs).
While NZD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the negative trend continues.
At the same time, it’s still premature to talk about the completion of the upward correction.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly charts are on the side of buyers.
The immediate goal of the correction may be the resistance level of 0.6740 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Probably, the interest rate of the RBNZ will remain at the same level of 1.75%. If during the press conference, which starts on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT), there are signals about the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar. However, the growth of the NZD against the USD will be short-term. The main dynamics of the pair NZD / USD is still determined by the dynamics of the US dollar. If the USD resumes growth, the NZD / USD pair, respectively, will resume the decline.
The signal for this will be the breakdown of the local support level of 0.6630. Breakdown of the support level of 0.6600 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will accelerate the decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #322  
Old 06-11-2018, 11:14
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NZD/USD: Market expectations and trading scenarios
06/11/2018


After the publication of data from the New Zealand labor market on Wednesday, investors will follow the RBNZ meeting. At 20:00 (GMT) the decision of the RBNZ on the interest rate will be published.
As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. With the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand, the RBNZ is unlikely to decide to change its monetary policy, according to economists, until mid-2019.
If the accompanying comments of the RBNZ or at the press conference, which also starts at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even on the Fed’s plans to tighten US monetary policy.
While NZD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative trend continues, despite the current upward correction.
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6630. After the breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6600 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will accelerate.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #323  
Old 07-11-2018, 12:43
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USD/CAD: the US dollar fell amid the election to Congress
07/11/2018
Current Dynamics

After the results of voting in the primary elections to the US Congress became known, the dollar fell in the foreign exchange market.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is close to 95.55 at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, 57 points (0.6%) lower than the closing price on Tuesday.
The pair USD / CAD fell on Wednesday by the beginning of the American session by 0.35% to 1.3080.
As it became known, the Democratic Party on Tuesday gained control of the House of Representatives. Republicans retained a majority in the Senate and the White House.
According to economists, Trump will find it harder to reconcile protectionist measures, which increases the likelihood of rising inflation and a more significant increase in the Fed's key interest rate. Against this background, most likely, the dollar will soon restore lost positions and resume growth.
On Wednesday, market participants will pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the Ivey business activity index (PMI), which assesses the business climate in Canada. The index is an important indicator of market conditions and the economy as a whole.
The Bureau of Statistics of Canada presented last Friday the data according to which Canada’s foreign trade deficit in September amounted to 416 million Canadian dollars (economists expected a surplus of 200 million Canadian dollars). This is the 21st month in a row, when Canada’s monthly trade balance with the rest of the countries remains in the deficit area.
At the same time, the trade deficit with other countries is observed against the background of a simultaneous reduction in Canadian exports and imports.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz announced at the end of September that interest rates are expected to gradually increase. In October, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.75%.
After weak macro statistics, presented on Friday, some economists concluded that a further increase in interest rates by the Bank of Canada remains in question.
At the same time, the US economy will continue to grow, and the Fed is likely to keep its course and raise the key interest rate again in 2018 and three times in 2019. And this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening the US dollar, including in the USD / CAD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading above the key support level of 1.2970 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The closest targets in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels of 1.3175 (August highs and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart), 1.3225 (September highs).
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the growth of USD / CAD in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.3105 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Above the support level of 1.2970 long positions are preferred. Above the support level of 1.3055 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) purchases look safe.
Only a breakdown of support levels of 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.2670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
Support Levels: 1.3055, 1.2970, 1.2740, 1.2670
Resistance Levels: 1.3105, 1.3175, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3380

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3045. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2740, 1.2670
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3045. Take-Profit 1.3175, 1.3200, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3380



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #324  
Old 09-11-2018, 13:07
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NZD/USD: Trading Scenarios
09/11/2018

Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of October, the NZD / USD pair is in an upward correction after a strong fall from mid-April and the level of 0.7380.
Having pushed off from the support level of 0.6430, the NZD / USD pair was able to grow by almost 400 points. The upward correction was stopped last Wednesday at a key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Following the two-day meeting, the Fed decided to keep the current interest rate at 2.25%. The decision of the Fed was published on Thursday (19:00 GMT). In a statement, Fed officials confirmed their plans to further increase the interest rate. Market participants expect a rate hike at the December Fed meeting (12/19/2018).
The US dollar strengthened after the publication of the Fed statement. On Friday, the dollar continued to grow, while the NZD / USD pair slightly decreased, finding support at 0.6740 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Breakdown of this support level may provoke a decline to the support level 0.6610 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart). A decline below the support level of 0.6610 will mean a resumption of the bearish trend.
Only a rise to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6800 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260) will mean a break of the bearish NZD / USD trend.
Below the support level of 0.6682 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) short positions again become preferable.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6740, 0.6682, 0.6610, 0.6515, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6682, 0.6610, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6820. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6900




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #325  
Old 13-11-2018, 13:39
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WTI: it's too early to talk about the turnaround of the bear market
11/13/2018
Current Dynamics

After the representatives of Saudi Arabia announced last weekend that in December the kingdom would unilaterally reduce oil exports, on Monday, oil prices rose, opening the trading day with a gap up.
However, by the end of the trading day on Monday, prices dropped again, closing the trading day in negative territory.
Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump wrote in his Twitter account that he hoped that Saudi Arabia and OPEC would refuse to reduce oil production. In his opinion, oil prices should be significantly lower.
WTI oil prices have lost almost 25% over the last month, demonstrating the longest period of decline since the start of futures trading on this sort of oil in 1983.
Oil reserves in the United States exceed 420 million barrels. Last Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published weekly data, which indicated another increase in US oil reserves of +5.78 million barrels of oil compared to +3.22 and +6.35 two and three weeks earlier.
At the same time, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the USA rose again last week to 886 units, compared to 874, 869, 861 units earlier.
However, in recent months, oil reserves are close to the average 5-year values. It is unlikely that OPEC will decide to reduce production volumes. The next meeting of OPEC on this issue will be held in December.
A further drop in oil prices is likely, both against the background of a stronger dollar and rising US oil reserves. The volatility of global stock markets, which turned out to be in negative territory below key resistance levels, also creates prerequisites for a further decline in demand for oil.
On Thursday (15:30 GMT), the weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products in the country’s storage facilities will be published.
The previous value of +5.78 million barrels of oil and petroleum products. If the reserves of oil and oil products in the United States rose again last week, then this will negatively affect oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
Below the key resistance level of 66.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The breakdown of support levels of 57.80 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that began in February 2016 from the support level near the 27.30 mark), 57.20 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) can return the prices for WTI oil to the global bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.80, 57.20
Resistance Levels: 61.30, 62.80, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 58.20. Stop Loss 61.40. Take-Profit 57.80, 57.20
Buy Stop 61.40. Stop Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 62.80, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #326  
Old 16-11-2018, 13:46
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GBP/USD: the Brexit theme remains decisive in the dynamics of the pound
11/16/2018
Current Dynamics

The British pound stabilized on Friday after a sharp decline on Thursday on Brexit-related concerns. On Thursday, it became known about the resignation of the British Minister for Brexit Dominic Raab. Six members of the government also resigned.
The pound fell on Thursday even despite the plan submitted by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the exit from the European Union, approved by the British parliament on Wednesday.
"This decision will be under scrutiny, but this decision is based on the best interests of the UK", said May.
At a press conference on Thursday evening, May defended her version of an agreement with the EU. “This is such a Brexit that meets the priorities of the British people”, she said. If you do not move forward, it will mean “choosing a path leading to deep and dangerous uncertainty”, in her opinion.
The pound also remained under pressure on Thursday after official data released, according to which retail sales in the UK fell by 0.5% in October compared with September, with an expected growth of 0.2%.
European Commission President Tusk said on Thursday that the EU wants a political declaration on a future agreement with the UK to be submitted by November 20, and a meeting of EU leaders on this issue will be convened on November 25.
Probably, the pound will remain under pressure as long as uncertainty remains regarding Brexit.
At the same time, the US dollar maintains its position, despite a slight decrease in the dollar index DXY. On Friday, at the beginning of the US trading session, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is trading near 96.85, after DXY reached a 16-month high at the beginning of the week, exceeding 97.50.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday reiterated that the US economy is in "good shape". It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the key interest rate in December, and then raise the interest rate several times in 2019.
This is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
After GBP / USD dropped sharply on Thursday, the pound rose on Friday and GBP / USD recovered.
Nevertheless, despite the recovery of the pound, short positions are preferable until clarifying the situation around Brexit. A meeting of EU leaders on this issue will be convened on November 25.
Long-term negative dynamics prevails below the key resistance level of 1.3210 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
The signal for opening long positions and the beginning of an upward correction will be the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2980 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2860, 1.2915, 1.2980, 1.3030, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2870. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2915, 1.2980, 1.3030, 1.3210, 1.3300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #327  
Old 20-11-2018, 12:05
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GBP/USD: Uncertainty is growing
11/20/2018
Current Dynamics

According to the manager of the Bank of England Mark Carney, Brexit and the exit of the UK from the EU without an agreement - “this is a real economic shock, so central banks will play secondary roles”. In this situation, raising or lowering interest rates by the Bank of England is not so important for the economy.
Mark Carney said on Tuesday in Parliament, the Bank of England’s management does not doubt the ability of UK banks to withstand if Brexit negotiations end in nothing. The probability of a Britain exit from the EU without an agreement has grown to about 50%.
Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed her plan to conclude an agreement with the EU on Brexit.
According to the representative of the Bank of England, Michael Sanders, British companies are not ready for the fact that the country's exit from the EU will take place without an agreement on further trade relations.
Uncertainty is growing, and it is not yet clear whether the country's prime minister Theresa May can convince parliament to support the agreement reached with the EU. All of these are negative factors for the pound. A pair of GBP / USD is prone to decline amid problems with the promotion of the Brexit project in the British Parliament and rumors about the possible resignation of Theresa May.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a long-term downtrend. Despite the current correctional growth, short positions are preferable. The situation around Brexit remains the main negative factor for the pound.
A breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2897 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further corrective rise to the resistance level of 1.2962 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Further growth is unlikely until an agreement is reached on Brexit.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2897, 1.2962, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2962, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #328  
Old 22-11-2018, 12:07
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XAU/USD: Trading Scenarios
22/11/2018

Corrective XAU / USD growth continues, as evidenced by the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 1218.00 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1220.00 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend long positions.
In case of continued growth, the immediate goal will be the resistance level of 1234.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Confirmed breakdown of resistance levels of 1243.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will indicate the end of the bearish trend.
Below resistance levels of 1243.00, 1248.00, short positions are preferable, despite corrective growth; bearish trend remains in force.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels of 1220.00, 1218.00.
The targets of declining are support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (minimums of the year).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1220.00, 1218.00, 1200.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1234.00, 1243.00, 1248.00, 1261.00, 1277.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1223.00. Stop Loss 1230.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1218.00, 1200.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1230.00. Stop Loss 1223.00. Take-Profit 1234.00, 1243.00, 1248.00, 1261.00, 1277.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #329  
Old 23-11-2018, 12:45
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GBP/USD: Trading Scenarios
11/23/2018

Despite the approval on Thursday of the preconditions for a British exit from the EU, the pound remains under pressure. At the same time, the issue of the border of Great Britain with Northern Ireland is not resolved. Now the draft agreement submitted by Prime Minister Theresa May should be approved by the country's parliament. Former Brexit minister Dominic Raab believes parliamentarians will vote against the deal. This will require a repeat vote, which is likely to be scheduled for February next year, and most likely the pound will remain under pressure until this date.
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart. The main trend is still bearish. Short positions are preferred.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2940 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above resistance levels 1.3180, 1.3210 is unlikely.
The situation around Brexit remains the main negative factor for the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.2770, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2860, 1.2940, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2830. Take-Profit 1.2940, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #330  
Old 27-11-2018, 12:41
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GBP/USD: until December 12, the pound will remain under pressure
11/27/2018
Current Dynamics

Despite the fact that last weekend the EU summit approved an agreement between the UK and the EU on Brexit, the pound remains under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair has been falling for the third consecutive day.
Teresa May managed to persuade EU representatives to conclude a deal on Brexit according to her plan, which provides for a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020 and can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, have subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. At the weekend, the media reported that 93 members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Statements by US President Donald Trump that an agreement on a Brexit deal could be a threat to a trade agreement between the US and the UK only aggravate the situation.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall to the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
It is likely that trading on the pound until December 12 will be volatile and dependent on any news on the Brexit deal. In general, investors will avoid making large bets on pound trading before this date.
At the same time, the US dollar returned previously lost positions after the US president called it “highly probable” an increase in trade duties on goods from China. President Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, once again announced his intention to introduce next year a 25% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion in the event of an unfavorable outcome of negotiations with the PRC. Trump also said that he will impose duties on all imports from China, which is not yet subject to taxation.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising for the third day in a row. Futures on the dollar index DXY to the beginning of the American session is trading near the mark of 97.10, 16 points higher than the opening price of the trading day on Tuesday.
Most of the Fed leaders in September planned another rate increase before the end of the year, which, according to expectations, should occur at the meeting December 18-19. For 2019, several more Fed rate hikes are planned.
On Thursday (19:00 GMT), a protocol from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC Minutes) will be published. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.
A day earlier, namely on Wednesday (17:00 GMT), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Two weeks ago, Powell announced the “good shape” of the American economy.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017). In case of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2700 (October lows), the GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2600.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred. Until December 12, when the UK parliament will vote on the terms of the Brexit deal, the pound will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2838, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop Loss 1.2760. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #331  
Old 30-11-2018, 12:35
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USD/CHF: Support and Resistance Levels
30/11/2018

USD / CHF continues to grow in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes above the resistance level of 1.0130 (2016 highs and Fibonacci level 100% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from 1.0300). On Friday, USD / CHF continues to grow, trading above the support level of 0.9945 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
USD / CHF maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 0.9855 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of the support level of 0.9945 may trigger a correction to the support level of 0.9855.
However, long positions are preferred. Purchases look safe above 0.9945 support level.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.9945, 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 0.9935. Take-Profit 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130
Sell Stop 0.9935. Stop Loss 0.9980. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745


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  #332  
Old 03-12-2018, 12:03
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AUD/USD: Support and resistance levels
03/12/2018

Since the beginning of last month, AUD / USD has been developing an upward trend. Correctional growth allowed AUD / USD to rise to the key resistance level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), breaking through the strong resistance level of 0.7320 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) on Monday with news of the suspension of the US-China trade conflict.
However, further growth of AUD / USD is unlikely, and a positive impulse can quickly disappear. If an agreement is not reached in 90 days, the United States will raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, and the trade conflict between the countries will enter a new round of escalation.
The most likely - the resumption of declining of the AUD / USD. In this case, the AUD / USD pair is at profitable levels in order to open short positions. Rebounding from the resistance level of 0.7380 and returning to the zone below the support level of 0.7320 will mean the resumption of the long-term bearish trend that began in August 2011. Breakdown of the support level of 0.7320 will resume the decline of AUD / USD with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows). Short positions are preferred.
An alternative scenario assumes continued growth with the maximum goal at the resistance level of 0.7460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.7380, 0.7460, 0.7770, 0.7850

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7500



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  #333  
Old 04-12-2018, 11:31
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GBP/USD: the pound strengthened on Tuesday
12/04/2018
Current Dynamics

The European Court’s decision on the possibility of the UK abandoning Brexit, as well as the publication of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK construction sector, had a positive effect on the pound. In November, the PMI index for the UK construction sector rose to 53.4 from 53.2 in October after a decline in activity over the previous 8 months. IHS Markit also reported that in November, the construction sector showed a generally strong growth, and the pace of job creation in it accelerated to a maximum since December 2015.
On Tuesday, the British Parliament will begin a 5-day discussion of the two documents that make up the Brexit agreement and formulate a way out of the UK from the EU and the future relationship between the UK and the bloc.
According to the Brexit deal, the UK is granted a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020, which can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. Many members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
Positive news supported the pound on Tuesday, allowing the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2840 at the beginning of the European session.
Nevertheless, the further strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP / USD is unlikely. Until December 12, investors will avoid major deals on the pound.
There are risks that in case of the parliament’s refusal to approve the Brexit agreement, the GBP / USD pair will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500.
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.2700 (August and October lows).
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3140 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2885, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2890. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3760



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  #334  
Old 06-12-2018, 12:02
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USD/CAD: Support and Resistance Levels
06/12/2018

Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%. In a statement explaining the decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a much more cautious tone is used than in previous statements. On Thursday (13:50 GMT) Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech. The soft rhetoric of Stephen Poloz regarding the bank’s monetary policy will further weaken the Canadian dollar.
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 1.3600. Above the key support level of 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a bullish trend remains.
In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
The growth targets will be the resistance levels of 1.3600, 1.3790 (2017 highs). Long positions are preferred.
Only a breakdown of support levels 1.2740 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.2700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025, 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3790




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  #335  
Old 12-12-2018, 12:56
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USD/CHF: on the eve of the meeting of the National Bank of Switzerland
Current dynamics
12/12/2018

On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank will be held on monetary policy issues. The decision on rates will be published at 08:30 (GMT).
Earlier in late September, the National Bank of Switzerland kept its negative interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate was at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was between -1.25% and -0.25%. “The bank still considers a negative interest rate necessary and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the situation requires it”, the NBS said. According to the management of the NBS, the cost of the Swiss franc is still high. It is likely that rates will remain unchanged for much of the next year, while weaker economic data has come from Switzerland. Thus, GDP in the 3rd quarter decreased by -0.2% instead of the expected growth of + 0.4% and against growth of + 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. Other macro data also indicate a slowdown in the economy.
At 09:00 (GMT) the press conference of the NBS will start. The harsh rhetoric of the speech by the head of the NBS Thomas Jordan, will help strengthen the franc. The soft tone of the speech and the tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the NBS will negatively affect the franc.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
The USD / CHF pair is trading at the beginning of the American session on Wednesday, near the strong short-term resistance level of 0.9960 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Breakdown of this level will strengthen the upward trend prevailing above key support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from 1.0300), 0.9860 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
As long as USD / CHF is above these key support levels, a long-term uptrend persists and long positions are preferred.
An alternative decline scenario may develop after the breakdown of the support level of 0.9860 with the immediate goal at the support level of 0.9745 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level of 50%).
Support levels: 0.9935, 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 0.9960, 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9970. Stop Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110
Sell Stop 0.9930. Stop Loss 0.9970. Take-Profit 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745, 0.9610, 0.9575


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  #336  
Old 13-12-2018, 11:31
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EUR/USD: Market Expectations
12/13/2018

On Thursday, the focus of attention of participants in the financial market will be the ECB meeting. The bank is expected to leave rates at current levels at least until the end of the summer of 2019. It is also likely that the ECB will confirm the completion of the asset purchase program at the end of December.
The ECB rate decision will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. If Mario Draghi makes unexpected announcements, then the volatility in euro trading and the financial market will increase significantly. The harsh rhetoric of Mario Draghi on monetary policy prospects will strengthen the euro. Conversely, the soft tone of the ECB statement and the speech of Mario Draghi will have a downward pressure on the euro.
Meanwhile, the euro will remain under pressure against the dollar, which is supported by demand from investors amid expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
While EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable. The likelihood of further decline in EUR / USD remains. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1362 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) EUR / USD will go to support levels of 1.1310 (December lows), 1.1290 (Fibonacci level of the 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1210 (November and year lows).
After EUR / USD rises to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1410 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), further corrective growth is possible to the resistance level of 1.1610.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.1362, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1350. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1350. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790



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  #337  
Old 14-12-2018, 12:23
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EUR/USD: Eurodollar remains under pressure
Current dynamics
14/12/2018

The Eurodollar remains under pressure after the ECB meeting on Thursday.
His head, Mario Draghi, pointed to the risks of the Eurozone economy, which are shifting towards the deterioration of the situation. The ECB confirmed that it will complete the QE program in December. Interest rates will remain unchanged until the summer of 2019.
The euro remains under pressure from the worsening domestic political situation in France, the reluctance of the Italian government to more strongly curtail the planned budget deficit, as required by the European Commission, as well as Brexit and uncertainty due to the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament in May.
On Friday, the decline of the EUR / USD pair continued after the publication of disappointing macro data from the Eurozone. The EUR / USD pair fell from the opening of the trading day by 0.6% and at the beginning of the American session is trading near the 1.1286 mark, trying to break through the important support level of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .
Below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with targets at support levels of 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart) are still preferred.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1400 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart) with the target at the resistance level of 1.1610.

Support Levels: 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1360, 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790


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  #338  
Old 17-12-2018, 11:45
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GBP/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
17/12/2018

After another sharp fall in mid-April since early May, GBP / USD continues to trade in a downward channel on a weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.1700. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2485 (minimums of the year). The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3095 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
The signal for growth will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2642 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart). The immediate goal of growth is resistance levels of 1.2780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2820 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
With favorable developments, corrective growth of GBP / USD may continue to resistance levels 1.3095 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3215.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2680. Stop Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215



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  #339  
Old 18-12-2018, 12:34
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XAU/USD: Market expectations
18/12/2018

Against the background of monetary tightening by the Fed since April, gold prices have been in a steady downward trend. In mid-August, the XAU / USD pair reached an annual minimum near the mark of 1160.00, however, then an upward correction began, raising gold prices to the current mark of 1249.00 dollars per troy ounce. Nevertheless, the overall gold trend remains bearish, and the upward correction may end near the reached resistance levels of 1242.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from July 2016), if the Fed will give clear signals to further tighten its monetary policy in 2019.
About 70% of market participants, according to the CME Group, believe that the rate will be increased in 2019 at least 2 more times. At the same time, the rate increase on December 19, at the last Fed meeting this year, by 0.25% to 2.5% is not in doubt.
The press conference of the Fed will begin on Wednesday 19:30 (GMT). Unambiguous signals from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a propensity to continue tightening monetary policy, will cause a rise in the dollar and a drop in gold prices. In the face of an increase in interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with other income-generating assets, such as government bonds, for example. At the same time, the cost of acquiring and storing gold is growing.
The breakdown of the support level of 1235.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be the beginning of the return of XAU / USD to the bearish trend.
The soft rhetoric of statements by Fed officials could contribute to weakening the dollar and further rising gold and XAU / USD quotes towards resistance levels of 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1242.00, 1235.00, 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1234.00. Stop Loss 1250.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1250.00. Stop Loss 1234.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1277.00



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  #340  
Old 19-12-2018, 12:06
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EUR/USD: on the eve of the publication of the Fed rate decision
12/19/2018

It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.5%. The probability of this is 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The decision of the Fed on the rate will be published at 19:00 (GMT). In November, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the stakes are "slightly below" the neutral level, at which they neither restrain nor accelerate economic growth. It is likely that the accompanying Fed statement will state that in the future rates will increase depending on economic data.
The Fed’s press conference will begin at 19:30 (GMT), and investors will closely monitor Powell’s performance to catch signals from him regarding the Fed’s future plans.
If he talks about the pause in the boost cycle in 2019, the dollar will fall under sales.
US President Donald Trump does not cease to criticize the Fed for its monetary policy.
If Powell confirms the inclination of the Fed to tighten its policy next year, then the dollar will receive a positive impetus for further growth. The discrepancy in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank in 2019 will increase. Even if EUR / USD rises in the near future against the backdrop of a restrained Fed statement, in the medium term and probably in the long term, the Eurodollar will decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Currently, EUR / USD is trading near a strong resistance level of 1.1400 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Below the key resistance level of 1.1595 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), negative dynamics prevail. The signal for the resumption of the decline will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and the targets for the decline will be the support levels of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (minimums December), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1470, corrective growth will be possible to the resistance level of 1.1595.
Support Levels: 1.1376, 1.1355, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1595, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1370. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1355, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1370. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1600, 1.1700, 1.1790




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  #341  
Old 21-12-2018, 13:18
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EUR/USD: has the Eurodollar growth stopped?
12/21/2018
Current situation

Stocks and the dollar continued to fall on Thursday after the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday. The Fed leaders unanimously decided to raise the key rate to a range of 2.25% -2.5%. However, the central bank announced a possible slowdown in monetary tightening next year.
At a press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that, according to central bank executives, next year the economy will be strong enough that rates could be raised twice. Earlier, the Fed planned 3 rate increases in 2019 and 2 more increases in 2020.
The US dollar declined significantly this week. On Thursday, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, fell to an 8-week low, dropping to 95.73. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, futures for the DXY index traded higher (near the mark of 96.06), however, the pressure on the dollar persists.
US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin tried to reassure investors, saying that the reaction of markets to the results of the last Fed meeting was excessive. "I think we are clearly in a situation in which the market over-responded to the statements of the Fed", said Mnuchin. According to him, the central bank may not have to raise rates at all next year if inflation remains low.
However, investors' pessimism persists. The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet and raise interest rates, but tensions remain in US political and trade relations with China.
Sales in stock markets led to a sharp strengthening of the yen and the euro, which are the funding currencies.
The Eurodollar strengthened since the beginning of the week, reaching a local maximum of 1.1485 on Thursday. However, on Friday the EUR / USD pair is falling. Investors take profits at the end of the week and close their positions ahead of the long weekend due to the celebration of Catholic Christmas early next week.
From the news today, attention should be paid to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro data from the United States, including GDP data (final release), which are one of the key (along with labor market and inflation data) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. The forecast for the 3rd quarter of this year is +3.5% GDP growth. Despite the relative decline (in the previous quarter, GDP growth was + 4.2%), this is a strong indicator. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast, the dollar and stock indices will react with a decrease.
It was the last full trading week this year. On Monday, markets in many countries will be closed. In full, trading will be restored only on Wednesday, and next Monday the world will celebrate the New Year.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
EUR / USD rose sharply this week, despite the Fed raising interest rates. Sales in stock markets led to an increase in demand for the yen and the euro, as for funding currencies. On Thursday, the EUR / USD pair reached a 5-week high near the 1.1485 mark. However, growth expected by many investors to the first strong resistance level of 1.1545 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) did not take place, and on Friday EUR / USD is falling. A decline below the support level of 1.1400 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and inside the downward channel on the daily chart will indicate return of EUR / USD to the global bearish trend, and a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1384 (EMA200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts) will be a signal for opening short positions. The targets for further decline are support levels of 1.1290 (Fibonacci 23.6% correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the day chart).
In the case of the resumption of growth and breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1485, corrective growth will be possible to the resistance level of 1.1595 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below this key resistance level of 1.1595 negative dynamics prevails.
Support Levels: 1.1400, 1.1384, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1270, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1470, 1.1485, 1.1545, 1.1595, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1490. Take-Profit 1. 1.1400, 1.1384, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1270, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1490. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1545, 1.1600, 1.1700, 1.1790


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  #342  
Old 27-12-2018, 12:22
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S&P500: The threat of a nearly 10-year bull trend breaking down is high
12/27/2018
Current situation

On Wednesday, US stock indexes showed a sharp increase after falling for 4 consecutive sessions before.
DJIA rose 1086 points, or 5%, to 22878 points, which in percentage terms was the most significant one-day increase since March 2009. S&P500 added 5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 5.8%.
On Tuesday, US financial markets were closed due to the celebration of Catholic Christmas, while most European markets on Wednesday were still closed due to Boxing Day. On Monday, the DJIA and S&P500 fell by 2.5%, and on Wednesday the DJIA declined at the opening of the trading day to around 21620, losing more than 1,800 points in four sessions. At the opening of the trading day on Wednesday, futures on the S&P500 stood at 2333.0, however, it increased during the day, closing the trading day on Wednesday at 2467.0.
Financial markets continue to be feverish at the end of the year. Investors were nervous about the rising interest rates of the Federal Reserve and the US-China trade conflict. Also on the dynamics of stock markets and the dollar in recent days reflected the continuing criticism of the Fed and its head Powell by US President Donald Trump, as well as the uncertainty associated with the closure of the US government.
On Wednesday, Kevin Hasset, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House, said there was no likelihood of the dismissal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism of the central bank by President Donald Trump. The recovery of stock market quotes and the dollar on Wednesday also was helped by the positive macro data, according to which, retail sales in the US excluding cars for the period from November 1 to December 24 increased by 5.1% compared with the same period of the previous year, which was the most significant increase in six years.
On Thursday, investors' pessimism returns to the markets. US stock indexes are falling. All 11 sectors of the S&P500 are moving towards ending the year with losses, for the first time since 2008. The threat of breaking a nearly 10-year bull trend is higher than ever before.
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Support and Resistance Levels
In October, the S&P500 rose to an absolute maximum near the 2938.0 mark. However, a sharp decline in the index began later. Having broken through the strong support levels of 2720.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2677.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), the S&P500 reached a local minimum near 2333.0 on Wednesday. The last time near this mark S&P500 was in May 2017.
Negative dynamics and pessimism of investors still prevail. On Thursday, the S&P500 declined again after rising the previous day, trading at a key support level of 2433.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart). Fixing below the support level of 2380.0 (Fibonacci level 50%) and a further decline will speak about breaking the bullish trend of the S&P500.
Only after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 2720.0, it will be possible to talk about the resumption of the bull trend. In the current situation, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 2433.0, 2380.0, 2333.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Resistance Levels: 2515.0, 2572.0, 2677.0, 2720.0, 2812.0, 2877.0, 2900.0, 2938.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2410.0. Stop Loss 2490.0. Goals 2380.0, 2333.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Buy Stop 2490.0. Stop-Loss 2410.0. Goals 2515.0, 2572.0, 2677.0, 2720.0, 2812.0, 2877.0, 2900.0, 2938.0


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  #343  
Old 09-01-2019, 11:07
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WTI: Support and Resistance Levels
09/01/2019

After in October, the price of WTI oil reached a multi-month and annual maximum near the mark of 76.80 dollars per barrel, then its sharp decline began.
In November, the WTI oil price broke the long-term bullish trend, breaking through the key support levels of 63.50 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that began in February 2016 with the support level near the 27.30 mark), 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) . At the end of last month, the price reached a local and annual minimum near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel.
From this level there was a rebound, and the price tried to develop an upward trend.
At the moment, corrective growth has stopped near the local resistance level of 50.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
A signal for further growth will be the breakdown of this resistance level of 50.50. Medium-term growth targets are resistance levels of 59.40 (Fibonacci level 50%), 60.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the short-term support level of 47.80 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will return the prices of WTI crude oil to a bearish trend that began in October, with a target at the support level of 42.00 (Fibonacci 100% and the minimums of 2018 and 2017).
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Support Levels: 49.00, 47.80, 46.00, 44.50, 42.00
Resistance Levels: 50.50, 52.70, 55.30, 56.50, 59.40, 60.50, 63.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 48.80. Stop Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 47.80, 46.00, 44.50, 42.00
Buy Stop 51.10. Stop Loss 48.80. Take-Profit 52.70, 55.30, 56.50, 59.40, 60.50, 63.50



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  #344  
Old 10-01-2019, 12:53
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S&P500: Optimism returns to stock market
10/01/2019
Current situation

Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the December Fed meeting, hinting that the next increase in interest rates in the United States can take place not soon. The protocols showed that Fed leaders are concerned about the slowdown in global economic growth and the tension in trade relations, which destabilized markets before the December meeting. Therefore, "the extent and timing of further policy tightening has become less certain than before".
On Friday, Powell hinted that the Fed could be more patient with raising rates. Jerome Powell said that the central bank is ready to "change" its policy "if necessary" and that it will listen carefully to the market.
Powell’s statement supported investors, and US stock markets have grown in recent days.
There is still a long way to full recovery, but investors' optimism is gradually returning to the stock markets.
On Thursday, investors are expecting speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting of the Economic Club in Washington, which will begin at 17:00 (GMT). If Powell repeats his Friday statement, then stock indexes will rise. If Powell changes his mind and his Friday statement, then investors may consider this a negative signal.
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Support and resistance levels
In the last days of last year, the S&P500 attempted to recover from a multi-week drop. Nevertheless, the correctional growth of the S&P500 stopped near the resistance level of 2584.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the resistance level of 2584.0 will trigger further growth of the S&P500 with targets at resistance levels of 2603.0, 2615.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
However, only after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 2700.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) it will be possible to speak about the resumption of the bull trend.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 2533.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The targets for the decline will be the support levels of 2435.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 2386.0 (Fibonacci 50% of the correction to the growth since February 2016). Fixing below these levels and a further decline will talk about breaking of the bullish trend S&P500.
Support Levels: 2533.0, 2507.0, 2435.0, 2386.0, 2335.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Resistance Levels: 2584.0, 2603.0, 2615.0, 2676.0, 2700.0

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 2550.0. Stop Loss 2595.0. Goals 2533.0, 2507.0, 2435.0, 2386.0, 2335.0, 2250.0, 2130.0
Buy Stop 2595.0. Stop Loss 2550.0. Objectives 2603.0, 2615.0, 2676.0, 2700.0





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  #345  
Old 11-01-2019, 11:54
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AUD/USD: Market Expectations
11/01/2019

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed on Thursday the central bank’s intention to be patient this year in deciding to raise interest rates, taking into account the turbulence observed in recent weeks in financial markets concerned about the problems of global economic growth. “The US economy is strong”, said Powell. “The main source of concern is global growth”. He noted that the economies of the world today are much more interconnected than before, and the question is how much the slowdown in global economic growth will affect the US economy. Powell's optimism and his restraint in raising interest rates the Fed supported stock indexes and commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar.
From the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. Inflation data is one of the main, along with data on GDP and the state of the labor market, on which the Fed's monetary policy depends. It is expected that in December, inflation in the United States decreased by -0.1%, but increased by 2.2% in annual terms. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will be strengthened. A decrease in performance will have a negative impact on the dollar.
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In general, the long-term bearish trend AUD / USD is still in force. In the long run, short positions are preferable. The reached local maximums probably provide a good opportunity to enter a short position at AUD / USD.
The breakdown of the support level of 0.7150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will cause the resumption of the AUD / USD decline with long-term targets at the support levels of 0.6910 (September 2015 minimum), 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below the resistance level of 0.7255 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.7200, 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7255, 0.7320, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7260. Stop Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7385, 0.7460



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  #346  
Old 14-01-2019, 13:42
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GBP/USD: Market Expectations
14/01/2018

On Tuesday, a vote will be taken in the British Parliament on a Brexit deal with the EU. As you know, British Prime Minister Theresa May made a Brexit deal with the EU at the end of November, which caused a flurry of criticism from British parliamentarians.
Probably, the parliament will vote against the proposed agreement and the deadline for the British withdrawal from the EU will be postponed from March 29 to a later date. The expected failure of the Brexit vote is, in general, negative news for the pound. However, the effect of this factor on the dynamics of the pound will most likely be short-term, since it has already been taken into account in the quotes.
Below the key resistance level of 1.3035 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and due to important fundamental factors, GBP / USD remains under pressure.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2735 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will go into the descending channel on the daily chart and to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 minimums), 1.2485, 1.2365.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the 1.7200 level), 1.3035 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
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Support Levels: 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2955, 1.3035, 1.3125, 1.3215, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.3035, 1.3125, 1.3215


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  #347  
Old 15-01-2019, 11:25
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EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios
01/15/2019

A report published on Tuesday showed that Germany’s GDP growth over the past year was 1.5% after a 2.2% increase in 2017. The data suggest a substantial recession risk in the German economy. The minimum annual GDP growth since 2013 has been recorded.
The slowdown in the German economy may cause weakening results for other European countries that supply components for the German automotive industry and other products.
Hard Brexit, the escalation of trade conflicts and factors of political instability in the Eurozone are the main threats to the European economy.
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EUR / USD pair declined after published data, closely approaching to the support level of 1.1420 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Below the key resistance levels of 1.1525 (EMA144), 1.1575 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downward trend prevails.
A breakdown of support levels of 1.1420, 1.1400 will return the EUR / USD pair to a long-term bearish trend. Long-term goals of decline are support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1120 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart, lows of June 2017).
Support Levels: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1700, 1.1780

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1390. Stop-Loss 1.1490. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1490. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1700, 1.1780



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  #348  
Old 16-01-2019, 12:20
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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
01/16/2019

In December, the annual rate of consumer price inflation in the UK slowed down. According to official data released on Wednesday, the UK consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% in December compared with the same period last year, after rising 2.3% in November. The retail price index (RPI) +0.4% m/m, +2.7% y/y (the forecast was +0.5% m/m, +2.9% y/y), the producer selling prices index (Output PPI) -0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y (the forecast was 0% m/m and +2.9% y/y). The data can be called ambiguous. On the one hand, they point to an increase in inflation, while inflation remains above the target level of the Bank of England at 2%. But, on the other hand, the data indicate a slowdown in inflation.
The publication of the data remained almost unnoticed, as all market attention focused on Brexit. The proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May, the plan of the deal was rejected on Tuesday by parliament. The vote in the British Parliament on the confidence of Theresa May will begin at 19:00 (GMT). With the opening of the trading day, GBP/USD is moderately decreasing, trading in the middle of the European session near the level of 1.2850.
Probably, Theresa May will be able to defend their post. However, the uncertainty of the future relationship between the EU and the UK is a negative factor for the pound. "Hard" Brexit without a trade agreement with the EU countries will deal a severe blow to the UK economy.
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Support and resistance levels
The pound remains under pressure due to the domestic political crisis in the UK and Brexit.
The main trend of GBP/USD is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP/USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2750, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2820. Stop Loss 1.2920. Take-Profit 1.2750, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2920. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210


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  #349  
Old 17-01-2019, 12:21
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EUR/USD: good reasons are needed for the Eurodollar growth
01/17/2019
Current situation

The updated data, published on Thursday, confirmed the forecasts of economists that in December annual inflation in the Eurozone amounted to 1.6% against 1.9% in November. In conjunction with the recently published weak data, inflation indicators indicate a decrease in the likelihood that the ECB will be able to increase the rate in 2019.
Against the background of the situation with Brexit, the ECB is likely to take a waiting position at the next meeting to be held next week. January 24 will be published by the ECB decision on rates. Probably, the ECB will also express concern about the worsening growth prospects of the economy.
On Tuesday, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the European economy still needs substantial stimulation. Investors considered this a signal for a possible extension of the QE program.
At the same time, the Beige Book, published Wednesday, drew a positive picture for the US economy. “Overall, the outlook remains positive”, the report says.
Thus, according to economists, the prospects for a substantial strengthening of the euro and the growth of EUR / USD look inconclusive. Probably further weakening of the Eurodollar. For the growth of the pair EUR / USD we need good reasons and a significant weakening of the dollar.
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Support and resistance levels
Despite the corrective growth of EUR / USD, which began in mid-November, negative dynamics prevail below the resistance level of 1.1570 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of resumption of reduction, the nearest targets will be the support levels of 1.1350, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1440 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and the resumption of corrective growth. However, the growth of EUR / USD will be limited by the resistance level of 1.1570.
Support Levels: 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1417, 1.1440, 1.1520, 1.1570, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1450. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215
Buy Stop 1.1450. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1520, 1.1570, 1.1700, 1.1780




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  #350  
Old 18-01-2019, 12:08
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GBP/USD: Market Expectations
01/18/2019


The pound is falling on Friday after strong growth on the eve amid rumors about a possible postponement of the UK exit from the EU, as well as the possibility of a second Brexit referendum.
The past week’s vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit deal with the EU failed for British Prime Minister Theresa May, and now she will have to submit a new plan on Monday. Most likely, it will differ little from the previous plan.
Brexit uncertainty is getting stronger, putting pressure on the pound. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented on Friday, retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.9% in December compared with the previous month. This report was another signal that the growth momentum of the UK economy faded in the last three months of 2018. According to economists, more stringent credit conditions, as well as the uncertainty of future UK relations with the EU have a negative impact on consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains stable and attractive, despite the domestic political crisis in the United States. Investors are worried about slowing global economic growth, trade conflicts, market volatility, partial suspension of government agencies and weak production data, and Fed officials said they would continue to be patient with rising interest rates.
On Friday, between 14:15 and 15:00 (GMT), important macro data from the United States will be published, including industrial production data for December and consumer confidence for January. Overall, the data is expected to be strong, despite a relative decline of values. The data should support the dollar, which is still in demand against the background of domestic political problems in Europe, as well as a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy due to the trade conflict between the US and China.
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On Friday, GBP / USD is falling, bargaining at the beginning of the European session near the level of 1.2940, below the resistance levels of 1.3030 (EMA200), 1.2950 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A break of the short-term support level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will confirm the scenario for the resumption of the bearish trend and direct GBP / USD to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 lows), 1.2485, 1.2365.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Support Levels: 1.2770, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop Loss 1.2920. Take-Profit 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210




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  #351  
Old 21-01-2019, 10:38
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EUR/USD: support and resistance levels
01/21/2019


Since mid-November, EUR / USD has been rising in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which is above the key resistance level of 1.1565 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Last week, from the level of 1.1565 there was a rebound, and the pair could not develop an upward trend. EUR / USD declines again, trading on Monday below the important short-term resistance level of 1.1415 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
The immediate targets for the decline in case of breakdown of the local support level of 1.1350 will be the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows) .
Breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1415 will be a signal for the realization of the scenario for the resumption of growth of EUR / USD. However, below the resistance level of 1.1565 negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.
On Thursday, the next ECB meeting will be held on monetary policy issues. Most likely, the ECB will keep current key interest rates at the same level. The basic interest rate will remain at the same level of 0%; the ECB deposit rate for commercial banks is also likely to remain unchanged at -0.4%.
As the ECB head Mario Draghi said last week, the recent economic indicators were worse than expected, and the European economy still needs substantial stimulation. If Mario Draghi reiterates this possibility in the coming months, the euro will decline.
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Support Levels: 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1515, 1.1565, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1515, 1.1565



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  #352  
Old 22-01-2019, 12:46
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GBP/USD: macro statistics remain in the background
01/22/2019
Current dynamics

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday presented her new plan for secession from the European Union, which is very similar to the previous one.
The leader of the Labor Party of Great Britain, Jeremy Corbin, said that "it really starts to sound like something like Groundhog Day" and called for a vote in the House of Commons on the second Brexit referendum.
In Brussels, it was repeatedly repeated that the transaction could not be subjected to significant changes. "This withdrawal agreement cannot be changed", said Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney on Monday.
It seems that the situation again comes to a standstill, and the likelihood of "hard" Brexit is growing every day. This puts pressure on the pound, not allowing the uptrend to develop above the key resistance levels of 1.2955, 1.3030.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom published on Tuesday, the number of employed citizens in the period from September to November increased by 141,000 compared with the previous three-month period, while the employment rate reached a record 75.8%.
The Bank of England expects that a decrease in free resources in the labor market will contribute to wage growth and keeping inflation above the target level in the coming years. However, until the situation with Brexit is resolved, the Bank of England will remain neutral in relation to changes in monetary policy, despite the high inflation rate in the country after the Brexit referendum held in June 2016.
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Despite the failure of the Brexit vote in the British parliament, GBP / USD continues to develop an upward correction, trading above the important short-term support levels of 1.2860 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2785 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
However, GBP / USD remains below key resistance levels of 1.2955 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.3030 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Above the resistance level of 1.3030, GBP / USD growth is unlikely. The pound remains under pressure due to the domestic political crisis in the UK and Brexit.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2785, the GBP / USD will go into the downstream channels on the daily and weekly charts to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 lows), 1.2485, 1.2365. The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail and short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2955, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3040. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2930. Stop Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.3030



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  #353  
Old 23-01-2019, 12:56
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NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar strengthened on Wednesday
01/23/2019
Current Dynamics

As the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand reported on Wednesday, in the 4th quarter of 2018, consumer prices increased by 0.1% compared to the 3rd quarter, and the annual increase in consumer prices was 1.9%. The forecast was 0% and + 1.8%, respectively.
At the same time, as noted by the Bureau of Statistics, the increase in prices for domestic goods turned out to be quite high, reaching 0.7% compared with the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.4%). The annual increase in prices for these goods was 2.7%.
According to economists, the published data give reason to expect further growth in domestic inflation. This is a positive factor for the New Zealand currency, as talk about the possibility of lowering the rate of the RBNZ in February subsided.
The New Zealand dollar rose after the publication of data on inflation, and the NZD / USD pair jumped to the level of 0.6800, through which the strong resistance level passes (200-period moving average on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, one should not expect a stronger strengthening of the New Zealand dollar.
Economists continue to point out signs of slowing economic growth and stick to the previous forecast, suggesting that the RBNZ will lower its key interest rate in 2019. But even if this does not happen, the need to raise interest rates will not arise soon. And this is a constraining fundamental factor for the further strengthening of the New Zealand currency.
The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and the decline in imports to China represents a direct threat to the New Zealand economy, which can be expressed in a decline in the volume of export earnings and the level of New Zealand GDP. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar so far remains stable, despite the deterioration of the international trading environment.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is moderately declining on Wednesday. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has grown over the past four trading days by 1.0%, exceeding the 96.00 mark. However, on Wednesday, DXY futures traded near the 95.88 mark, while maintaining a long-term positive trend.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
Since the beginning of the month, NZD / USD has been growing, attempting to consolidate above the key level of 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of the strong resistance level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the lows of the wave are near the level of 0.6260) could mean breaking the bearish trend of NZD / USD, which began in April 2018. In this case, NZD / USD will go towards the resistance level of 0.7100 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
An alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 0.6765 (EMA144 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), which confirms the return of NZD / USD to a bearish trend.
Below the support level of 0.6765 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions are again preferred.
Support levels: 0.6765, 0.6708, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6760. Stop Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6810. Stop Loss 0.6760. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.7100



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  #354  
Old 24-01-2019, 12:10
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EUR/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
24/01/2019

The focus of traders today is the ECB meeting and its decision on the interest rate and the QE program. The ECB's decision on interest rates will be published at 12:15 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. The ECB is likely to keep current key interest rates unchanged today. The basic interest rate will remain at the same level of 0%; the ECB deposit rate for commercial banks is also likely to remain unchanged at -0.4%. If the ECB head Mario Draghi again signals the extension or expansion of the QE program, the fall of the Eurodollar will be even stronger.
The immediate targets for the decline are support levels of 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows). Negative dynamics prevail.
The alternative scenario assumes the resumption of correctional growth with targets at resistance levels of 1.1510, 1.1560 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In this case, the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1405 will be a signal for the implementation of this scenario.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1392, 1.1405, 1.1510, 1.1560, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1560


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  #355  
Old 25-01-2019, 12:48
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WTI: Market Expectations
25/01/2019

The oil market traders seem to be confused due to a number of conflicting fundamental factors. The acute political crisis in Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves on the one hand, and the growth of commercial oil reserves in the United States last week, as well as ongoing trade conflicts and a slowdown in the global economy, on the other hand, create multidirectional oil price vectors.
On Friday (19:00 GMT), a weekly report from the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States will be published. Their number declined again in the previous week and currently stands at 852 units against the maximum of 887 units reached at the end of 2018. However, there is a recovery in oil prices after falling in the 4th quarter of 2018 (oil prices in the end of December hit bottom near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel of WTI crude oil). Rising oil prices create an incentive for American oil companies to increase production, which, in turn, is a deterrent to rising oil prices. The increase in the number of drilling rigs is a negative factor for oil prices.
WTI crude oil prices reached important resistance levels near $ 52.75 per barrel (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend short positions.
Returning to the zone below 52.75 creates the risk of a resumption of the bearish trend that began in early October 2018.
Also, in the current price dynamics it is possible to distinguish a range with upper and lower lines passing through the marks 54.10, 50.25. Exit from this range can also determine the direction of further price movement.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 52.00, 51.60, 50.25, 50.00, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Resistance Levels: 52.75, 54.10, 57.00, 57.80, 58.50, 60.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 51.50. Stop Loss 54.20. Take-Profit 50.00, 49.00, 46.00, 42.00
Buy Stop 54.20. Stop Loss 51.50. Take-Profit 55.30, 56.60, 57.00, 57.80, 58.50, 59.40, 60.00




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  #356  
Old 28-01-2019, 12:28
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EUR/USD: an important week for the dollar has begun
01/28/2019
Current situation

The focus of traders on the new week began will be the Fed meeting, the publication of data from the US labor market in January, as well as a vote in the British parliament on option "B" of the Brexit deal.
After the last ECB meeting on Thursday, investors were convinced that the ECB will not raise rates in the coming months and, as a maximum, until mid-2020.
The ECB left its interest rates and monetary policy unchanged, and the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, reported the prevalence of downside risks to the Eurozone economy.
At the same time, the USA also faces problems of domestic and foreign economic nature.
Partial suspension of the US government has had a negative impact on consumer and producer sentiment indicators. It is also likely that the suspension of the work of state institutions had a negative impact on the growth of the US economy in the 1st quarter of 2019.
Last week, the dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 currencies, fell by 0.5% to 95.50.
Probably, the Fed will not change its monetary policy at a meeting to be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will support the US stock markets, but may adversely affect the dollar quotes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD holds positions reached last Friday near the important level of 1.1400 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend long positions.
In the current situation, long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.1500 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1560 (EMA200 on the daily chart) look preferable.
The alternative scenario assumes a resumption of the decline. The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1400, 1.1383 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart) with targets at support levels 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, started in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).
Support Levels: 1.1400, 1.1383, 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1375. Stop-Loss 1.1430. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1430. Stop-Loss 1.1375. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1560



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  #357  
Old 29-01-2019, 11:23
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USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure
Current dynamics
01/29/2019

The dollar is moderately declining on Tuesday. The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been falling since the opening of today's trading day. At the beginning of the European trading session, futures for the DXY index traded near the 95.35 mark, 9 points lower than the opening price of the trading day.
On Tuesday, investors will wait for the outcome of the vote in the British Parliament on the plan "B" about Brexit, and on Wednesday - the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
Probably, the Fed will keep the current monetary policy unchanged. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again signals a cautious approach to further tightening the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar will be under pressure. Conversely, Powell’s harsh rhetoric will support the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

At the same time, signals appeared to continue the decline of the pair USD / CHF.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart moved to the side of sellers.
A breakout of the important short-term support level of 0.9910 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will confirm a decline signal with targets at the support levels of 0.9875 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.9765 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 0.9745 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to the last global the wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9720 (January lows).
The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9930 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will return the USD / CHF momentum for further growth. Above the support level of 0.9875, long-term positive dynamics of USD / CHF remains.
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9765, 0.9745, 0.9720, 0.9650, 0.9615, 0.9545
Resistance Levels: 0.9930, 0.9970, 0.9990, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.9890. Stop Loss 0.9940. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9800, 0.9765, 0.9745, 0.9720, 0.9650, 0.9615, 0.9545
Buy Stop 0.9940. Stop Loss 0.9890. Take-Profit 0.9970, 0.9990, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0130




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  #358  
Old 30-01-2019, 12:05
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AUD/USD: Market Expectations
30/01/2019

In December, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the central bank’s intention to be patient this year in deciding to raise interest rates, taking into account the turbulence seen in financial markets over the past few weeks about the problems of global economic growth. “The US economy is strong”, said Powell. “The main source of concern is global growth”.
If Jerome Powell again signals a cautious approach to further tightening the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar will be under pressure. Powell’s harsh rhetoric, which is less likely, will support the dollar.
According to the quotations of futures on the Fed's rates, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in the current year at 18%.
The Fed's decision will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 (GMT), and the Fed’s press conference will begin at 19:30.
At the same time, the Australian dollar received support today after, during the Asian session, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a rise in Australia's consumer price index (CPI) in the 4th quarter by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, and by 1,8% in annual terms (the forecast was +0.4% +1.7%, respectively).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

In general, the long-term bearish trend AUD / USD is still in force. In the long run, short positions are preferable. The reached local maxima near the 0.7200 mark probably provide a good opportunity to enter a short position on AUD / USD.
Breakdown of the support level 0.7150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will return AUD / USD to the inside of the descending channel on the daily chart and will cause the resumption of decline with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below support level 0.7150, short positions are preferable.
An alternative scenario, implying the development of an upward correction, suggests an increase in AUD / USD to resistance levels of 0.7245 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7295. Above the resistance level of 0.7295 AUD / USD growth is unlikely.
Support Levels: 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7200, 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop Loss 0.7140. Take-Profit 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460



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  #359  
Old 31-01-2019, 12:29
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EUR/USD: the dollar fell after the Fed decision
01/31/2019
Current situation

At the regular meeting the ECB last Thursday kept its current monetary policy unchanged. ECB President Mario Draghi reported on the prevalence of downside risks for the Eurozone economy, including protectionism in international trade and geopolitical tensions. Earlier, the central bank noted a general balance of risks.
Last Wednesday, the Fed also did not change its monetary policy, maintaining interest rates at the same level.
The cautious position of the US Federal Reserve and the statements of its head Jerome Powell that "the arguments in favor of raising rates have weakened a bit", raised the EUR / USD to a 3-week high near the 1.1515 mark.
Powell reiterated that future policy will be “completely dependent on data”.
Market participants expect the Fed will not raise rates this year.
Now, after the statements of Powell, data from the US labor market, expected on Friday, will attract increased attention of market participants. Data worse than the forecast values and data for December will weaken the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy and adversely affect the dollar quotes.
From the news today it is worth paying attention to the publication (from 13:30 to 15:00 GMT) of US macro data: data on unemployment applications last week and sales of new homes in November. Positive macro data will provide short-term support for the dollar. Conversely, weak data will adversely affect the dollar quotes and support the EUR / USD pair, which is falling on Thursday after the publication of the weaker-than-expected 4-quarter Eurozone GDP data. According to Eurostat, in the 4th quarter, Eurozone GDP grew by +0.2% (+1.2% in annual terms). Thus, the GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2018 was 1.8% versus 2.4% in 2017. The data again indicate a slowdown in the European economy in 2018.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD holds positions reached last Thursday near an important resistance level of 1.1500 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily charts still recommend long positions.
In the current situation, long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.1500 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1550 (EMA200 on the daily chart) look preferable.
The alternative scenario assumes a resumption of the decline. The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1418 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1410 with targets at support levels 1.1300, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).
Support Levels: 1.1418, 1.1410, 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Resistance Levels: 1.1500, 1.1550, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1460. Stop Loss 1.1510. Take-Profit 1.1410, 1.1350, 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1510. Stop-Loss 1.1460. Take-Profit 1.1550, 1.1680, 1.1780



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  #360  
Old 01-02-2019, 11:30
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XAU/USD: on the eve of NFP publication
01/02/2019

The dollar is falling on Friday, and gold quotes continue to rise. Investors are waiting for publication (at 13:30 GMT) data from the US labor market in January. These data (along with data on GDP and inflation) are crucial for the central bank, including the Fed, in determining the direction and pace of monetary policy.
Strong performance is expected, despite the fact that the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in January increased by 165,000 (after a growth in the same period in December by 312,000). The growth in the number of jobs above 150,000 per month is a good indicator. At the same time, unemployment will remain at the lowest levels for many years (3.9%).
If the data is confirmed, the dollar may receive short-term support and strengthen. More important for the further dynamics of the dollar and the price of gold is that the Fed has signaled a pause in the process of further raising interest rates. Last Wednesday, the Fed kept the current monetary policy unchanged, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "there was a little less reason to raise rates", and future policies would "completely depend on data".
A more cautious monetary policy of the Fed, as well as in a situation of worsening growth prospects for the world economy and international trade conflicts, political struggle in Washington, attenuation of fiscal stimulus will help to maintain the demand for gold and the continued growth of its quotes.
However, during the publication of data from the US labor market, a surge in volatility is expected in trading across the entire financial market. Probably more cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.
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Meanwhile, the XAU / USD pair is trading near multi-month highs and a mark of 1320.00, through which the upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart passes. There is a strong positive impulse, and in case of continued growth, the targets are resistance levels of 1357.00 (2017 highs), 1370.00 (start of a decline wave and Fibonacci level 100%), 1375.00 (2016 highs).
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of support levels of 1283.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1277.00 and the resumption of the bearish gold trend.
Below the support level of 1255.00 short positions will become preferable again.
So far, long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1305.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1265.00, 1255.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1327.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1297.00. Stop Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1283.00, 1277.00, 1265.00, 1255.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1328.00. Stop Loss 1304.00. Take-Profit 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00




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