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  #321  
Old 06-11-2018, 10:57
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NZD/USD: Market expectations and trading scenarios
06/11/2018


From mid-April, the NZD / USD has been trading in a downward channel, falling from a level of 0.7380. After the breakdown of important support levels of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800 started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260), 0.7110 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) NZD / USD decline accelerated. In October, NZD / USD hit a multi-month low near the 0.6430 mark. However, NZD / USD was able to push off from this level of 0.6430 and develop an upward correction, rising to the resistance level of 0.6700 (September highs).
While NZD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the negative trend continues.
At the same time, it’s still premature to talk about the completion of the upward correction.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, weekly charts are on the side of buyers.
The immediate goal of the correction may be the resistance level of 0.6740 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Probably, the interest rate of the RBNZ will remain at the same level of 1.75%. If during the press conference, which starts on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT), there are signals about the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar. However, the growth of the NZD against the USD will be short-term. The main dynamics of the pair NZD / USD is still determined by the dynamics of the US dollar. If the USD resumes growth, the NZD / USD pair, respectively, will resume the decline.
The signal for this will be the breakdown of the local support level of 0.6630. Breakdown of the support level of 0.6600 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will accelerate the decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #322  
Old 06-11-2018, 11:14
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NZD/USD: Market expectations and trading scenarios
06/11/2018


After the publication of data from the New Zealand labor market on Wednesday, investors will follow the RBNZ meeting. At 20:00 (GMT) the decision of the RBNZ on the interest rate will be published.
As expected, the interest rate will remain at the same level of 1.75%. With the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, the largest trade and economic partners of New Zealand, the RBNZ is unlikely to decide to change its monetary policy, according to economists, until mid-2019.
If the accompanying comments of the RBNZ or at the press conference, which also starts at 20:00 (GMT), contain signals on the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the near future, the New Zealand dollar may strengthen, including against the US dollar, even on the Fed’s plans to tighten US monetary policy.
While NZD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative trend continues, despite the current upward correction.
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6630. After the breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6600 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will accelerate.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6500, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6740, 0.6810, 0.6860




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #323  
Old 07-11-2018, 12:43
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USD/CAD: the US dollar fell amid the election to Congress
07/11/2018
Current Dynamics

After the results of voting in the primary elections to the US Congress became known, the dollar fell in the foreign exchange market.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is close to 95.55 at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, 57 points (0.6%) lower than the closing price on Tuesday.
The pair USD / CAD fell on Wednesday by the beginning of the American session by 0.35% to 1.3080.
As it became known, the Democratic Party on Tuesday gained control of the House of Representatives. Republicans retained a majority in the Senate and the White House.
According to economists, Trump will find it harder to reconcile protectionist measures, which increases the likelihood of rising inflation and a more significant increase in the Fed's key interest rate. Against this background, most likely, the dollar will soon restore lost positions and resume growth.
On Wednesday, market participants will pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the Ivey business activity index (PMI), which assesses the business climate in Canada. The index is an important indicator of market conditions and the economy as a whole.
The Bureau of Statistics of Canada presented last Friday the data according to which Canada’s foreign trade deficit in September amounted to 416 million Canadian dollars (economists expected a surplus of 200 million Canadian dollars). This is the 21st month in a row, when Canada’s monthly trade balance with the rest of the countries remains in the deficit area.
At the same time, the trade deficit with other countries is observed against the background of a simultaneous reduction in Canadian exports and imports.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz announced at the end of September that interest rates are expected to gradually increase. In October, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.75%.
After weak macro statistics, presented on Friday, some economists concluded that a further increase in interest rates by the Bank of Canada remains in question.
At the same time, the US economy will continue to grow, and the Fed is likely to keep its course and raise the key interest rate again in 2018 and three times in 2019. And this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening the US dollar, including in the USD / CAD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading above the key support level of 1.2970 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). The closest targets in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels of 1.3175 (August highs and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart), 1.3225 (September highs).
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the growth of USD / CAD in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.3105 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Above the support level of 1.2970 long positions are preferred. Above the support level of 1.3055 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) purchases look safe.
Only a breakdown of support levels of 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.2670 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
Support Levels: 1.3055, 1.2970, 1.2740, 1.2670
Resistance Levels: 1.3105, 1.3175, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3380

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3045. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2740, 1.2670
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3045. Take-Profit 1.3175, 1.3200, 1.3225, 1.3285, 1.3380



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #324  
Old 09-11-2018, 13:07
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NZD/USD: Trading Scenarios
09/11/2018

Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of October, the NZD / USD pair is in an upward correction after a strong fall from mid-April and the level of 0.7380.
Having pushed off from the support level of 0.6430, the NZD / USD pair was able to grow by almost 400 points. The upward correction was stopped last Wednesday at a key resistance level of 0.6810 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Following the two-day meeting, the Fed decided to keep the current interest rate at 2.25%. The decision of the Fed was published on Thursday (19:00 GMT). In a statement, Fed officials confirmed their plans to further increase the interest rate. Market participants expect a rate hike at the December Fed meeting (12/19/2018).
The US dollar strengthened after the publication of the Fed statement. On Friday, the dollar continued to grow, while the NZD / USD pair slightly decreased, finding support at 0.6740 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Breakdown of this support level may provoke a decline to the support level 0.6610 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart). A decline below the support level of 0.6610 will mean a resumption of the bearish trend.
Only a rise to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6800 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, started in July 2014; the wave minima are near the level of 0.6260) will mean a break of the bearish NZD / USD trend.
Below the support level of 0.6682 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) short positions again become preferable.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6740, 0.6682, 0.6610, 0.6515, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6810, 0.6860

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6710. Stop Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6682, 0.6610, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6820. Stop Loss 0.6710. Take-Profit 0.6860, 0.6900




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #325  
Old 13-11-2018, 13:39
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WTI: it's too early to talk about the turnaround of the bear market
11/13/2018
Current Dynamics

After the representatives of Saudi Arabia announced last weekend that in December the kingdom would unilaterally reduce oil exports, on Monday, oil prices rose, opening the trading day with a gap up.
However, by the end of the trading day on Monday, prices dropped again, closing the trading day in negative territory.
Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump wrote in his Twitter account that he hoped that Saudi Arabia and OPEC would refuse to reduce oil production. In his opinion, oil prices should be significantly lower.
WTI oil prices have lost almost 25% over the last month, demonstrating the longest period of decline since the start of futures trading on this sort of oil in 1983.
Oil reserves in the United States exceed 420 million barrels. Last Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published weekly data, which indicated another increase in US oil reserves of +5.78 million barrels of oil compared to +3.22 and +6.35 two and three weeks earlier.
At the same time, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the USA rose again last week to 886 units, compared to 874, 869, 861 units earlier.
However, in recent months, oil reserves are close to the average 5-year values. It is unlikely that OPEC will decide to reduce production volumes. The next meeting of OPEC on this issue will be held in December.
A further drop in oil prices is likely, both against the background of a stronger dollar and rising US oil reserves. The volatility of global stock markets, which turned out to be in negative territory below key resistance levels, also creates prerequisites for a further decline in demand for oil.
On Thursday (15:30 GMT), the weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products in the country’s storage facilities will be published.
The previous value of +5.78 million barrels of oil and petroleum products. If the reserves of oil and oil products in the United States rose again last week, then this will negatively affect oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
Below the key resistance level of 66.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The breakdown of support levels of 57.80 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that began in February 2016 from the support level near the 27.30 mark), 57.20 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) can return the prices for WTI oil to the global bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.80, 57.20
Resistance Levels: 61.30, 62.80, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 58.20. Stop Loss 61.40. Take-Profit 57.80, 57.20
Buy Stop 61.40. Stop Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 62.80, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #326  
Old 16-11-2018, 13:46
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GBP/USD: the Brexit theme remains decisive in the dynamics of the pound
11/16/2018
Current Dynamics

The British pound stabilized on Friday after a sharp decline on Thursday on Brexit-related concerns. On Thursday, it became known about the resignation of the British Minister for Brexit Dominic Raab. Six members of the government also resigned.
The pound fell on Thursday even despite the plan submitted by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the exit from the European Union, approved by the British parliament on Wednesday.
"This decision will be under scrutiny, but this decision is based on the best interests of the UK", said May.
At a press conference on Thursday evening, May defended her version of an agreement with the EU. “This is such a Brexit that meets the priorities of the British people”, she said. If you do not move forward, it will mean “choosing a path leading to deep and dangerous uncertainty”, in her opinion.
The pound also remained under pressure on Thursday after official data released, according to which retail sales in the UK fell by 0.5% in October compared with September, with an expected growth of 0.2%.
European Commission President Tusk said on Thursday that the EU wants a political declaration on a future agreement with the UK to be submitted by November 20, and a meeting of EU leaders on this issue will be convened on November 25.
Probably, the pound will remain under pressure as long as uncertainty remains regarding Brexit.
At the same time, the US dollar maintains its position, despite a slight decrease in the dollar index DXY. On Friday, at the beginning of the US trading session, the DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is trading near 96.85, after DXY reached a 16-month high at the beginning of the week, exceeding 97.50.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday reiterated that the US economy is in "good shape". It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the key interest rate in December, and then raise the interest rate several times in 2019.
This is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
After GBP / USD dropped sharply on Thursday, the pound rose on Friday and GBP / USD recovered.
Nevertheless, despite the recovery of the pound, short positions are preferable until clarifying the situation around Brexit. A meeting of EU leaders on this issue will be convened on November 25.
Long-term negative dynamics prevails below the key resistance level of 1.3210 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
The signal for opening long positions and the beginning of an upward correction will be the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2980 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2860, 1.2915, 1.2980, 1.3030, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2870. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2915, 1.2980, 1.3030, 1.3210, 1.3300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #327  
Old 20-11-2018, 12:05
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GBP/USD: Uncertainty is growing
11/20/2018
Current Dynamics

According to the manager of the Bank of England Mark Carney, Brexit and the exit of the UK from the EU without an agreement - “this is a real economic shock, so central banks will play secondary roles”. In this situation, raising or lowering interest rates by the Bank of England is not so important for the economy.
Mark Carney said on Tuesday in Parliament, the Bank of England’s management does not doubt the ability of UK banks to withstand if Brexit negotiations end in nothing. The probability of a Britain exit from the EU without an agreement has grown to about 50%.
Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed her plan to conclude an agreement with the EU on Brexit.
According to the representative of the Bank of England, Michael Sanders, British companies are not ready for the fact that the country's exit from the EU will take place without an agreement on further trade relations.
Uncertainty is growing, and it is not yet clear whether the country's prime minister Theresa May can convince parliament to support the agreement reached with the EU. All of these are negative factors for the pound. A pair of GBP / USD is prone to decline amid problems with the promotion of the Brexit project in the British Parliament and rumors about the possible resignation of Theresa May.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a long-term downtrend. Despite the current correctional growth, short positions are preferable. The situation around Brexit remains the main negative factor for the pound.
A breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2897 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further corrective rise to the resistance level of 1.2962 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Further growth is unlikely until an agreement is reached on Brexit.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Support Levels: 1.2730, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2897, 1.2962, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2962, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #328  
Old 22-11-2018, 12:07
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XAU/USD: Trading Scenarios
22/11/2018

Corrective XAU / USD growth continues, as evidenced by the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 1218.00 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1220.00 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts recommend long positions.
In case of continued growth, the immediate goal will be the resistance level of 1234.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Confirmed breakdown of resistance levels of 1243.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will indicate the end of the bearish trend.
Below resistance levels of 1243.00, 1248.00, short positions are preferable, despite corrective growth; bearish trend remains in force.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels of 1220.00, 1218.00.
The targets of declining are support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (minimums of the year).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1220.00, 1218.00, 1200.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1234.00, 1243.00, 1248.00, 1261.00, 1277.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1223.00. Stop Loss 1230.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1218.00, 1200.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1230.00. Stop Loss 1223.00. Take-Profit 1234.00, 1243.00, 1248.00, 1261.00, 1277.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #329  
Old 23-11-2018, 12:45
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GBP/USD: Trading Scenarios
11/23/2018

Despite the approval on Thursday of the preconditions for a British exit from the EU, the pound remains under pressure. At the same time, the issue of the border of Great Britain with Northern Ireland is not resolved. Now the draft agreement submitted by Prime Minister Theresa May should be approved by the country's parliament. Former Brexit minister Dominic Raab believes parliamentarians will vote against the deal. This will require a repeat vote, which is likely to be scheduled for February next year, and most likely the pound will remain under pressure until this date.
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart. The main trend is still bearish. Short positions are preferred.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3180 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2940 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above resistance levels 1.3180, 1.3210 is unlikely.
The situation around Brexit remains the main negative factor for the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.2770, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2860, 1.2940, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2830. Take-Profit 1.2940, 1.3030, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #330  
Old 27-11-2018, 12:41
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GBP/USD: until December 12, the pound will remain under pressure
11/27/2018
Current Dynamics

Despite the fact that last weekend the EU summit approved an agreement between the UK and the EU on Brexit, the pound remains under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair has been falling for the third consecutive day.
Teresa May managed to persuade EU representatives to conclude a deal on Brexit according to her plan, which provides for a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020 and can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, have subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. At the weekend, the media reported that 93 members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Statements by US President Donald Trump that an agreement on a Brexit deal could be a threat to a trade agreement between the US and the UK only aggravate the situation.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall to the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
It is likely that trading on the pound until December 12 will be volatile and dependent on any news on the Brexit deal. In general, investors will avoid making large bets on pound trading before this date.
At the same time, the US dollar returned previously lost positions after the US president called it “highly probable” an increase in trade duties on goods from China. President Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, once again announced his intention to introduce next year a 25% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion in the event of an unfavorable outcome of negotiations with the PRC. Trump also said that he will impose duties on all imports from China, which is not yet subject to taxation.
The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising for the third day in a row. Futures on the dollar index DXY to the beginning of the American session is trading near the mark of 97.10, 16 points higher than the opening price of the trading day on Tuesday.
Most of the Fed leaders in September planned another rate increase before the end of the year, which, according to expectations, should occur at the meeting December 18-19. For 2019, several more Fed rate hikes are planned.
On Thursday (19:00 GMT), a protocol from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC Minutes) will be published. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.
A day earlier, namely on Wednesday (17:00 GMT), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Two weeks ago, Powell announced the “good shape” of the American economy.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017). In case of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2700 (October lows), the GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2600.
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred. Until December 12, when the UK parliament will vote on the terms of the Brexit deal, the pound will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2838, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop Loss 1.2760. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #331  
Old 30-11-2018, 12:35
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USD/CHF: Support and Resistance Levels
30/11/2018

USD / CHF continues to grow in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes above the resistance level of 1.0130 (2016 highs and Fibonacci level 100% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from 1.0300). On Friday, USD / CHF continues to grow, trading above the support level of 0.9945 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
USD / CHF maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above the key support level of 0.9855 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Breakdown of the support level of 0.9945 may trigger a correction to the support level of 0.9855.
However, long positions are preferred. Purchases look safe above 0.9945 support level.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.9945, 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 0.9935. Take-Profit 1.0000, 1.0040, 1.0090, 1.0100, 1.0300, 1.0130
Sell Stop 0.9935. Stop Loss 0.9980. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9855, 0.9745


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  #332  
Old 03-12-2018, 12:03
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AUD/USD: Support and resistance levels
03/12/2018

Since the beginning of last month, AUD / USD has been developing an upward trend. Correctional growth allowed AUD / USD to rise to the key resistance level of 0.7380 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), breaking through the strong resistance level of 0.7320 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) on Monday with news of the suspension of the US-China trade conflict.
However, further growth of AUD / USD is unlikely, and a positive impulse can quickly disappear. If an agreement is not reached in 90 days, the United States will raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, and the trade conflict between the countries will enter a new round of escalation.
The most likely - the resumption of declining of the AUD / USD. In this case, the AUD / USD pair is at profitable levels in order to open short positions. Rebounding from the resistance level of 0.7380 and returning to the zone below the support level of 0.7320 will mean the resumption of the long-term bearish trend that began in August 2011. Breakdown of the support level of 0.7320 will resume the decline of AUD / USD with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows). Short positions are preferred.
An alternative scenario assumes continued growth with the maximum goal at the resistance level of 0.7460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.7380, 0.7460, 0.7770, 0.7850

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7500



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  #333  
Old 04-12-2018, 11:31
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GBP/USD: the pound strengthened on Tuesday
12/04/2018
Current Dynamics

The European Court’s decision on the possibility of the UK abandoning Brexit, as well as the publication of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK construction sector, had a positive effect on the pound. In November, the PMI index for the UK construction sector rose to 53.4 from 53.2 in October after a decline in activity over the previous 8 months. IHS Markit also reported that in November, the construction sector showed a generally strong growth, and the pace of job creation in it accelerated to a maximum since December 2015.
On Tuesday, the British Parliament will begin a 5-day discussion of the two documents that make up the Brexit agreement and formulate a way out of the UK from the EU and the future relationship between the UK and the bloc.
According to the Brexit deal, the UK is granted a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020, which can then be extended until December 2022.
Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. Many members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.
Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.
Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
Positive news supported the pound on Tuesday, allowing the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2840 at the beginning of the European session.
Nevertheless, the further strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP / USD is unlikely. Until December 12, investors will avoid major deals on the pound.
There are risks that in case of the parliament’s refusal to approve the Brexit agreement, the GBP / USD pair will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500.
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.2700 (August and October lows).
The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3140 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2885, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2890. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3760



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  #334  
Old 06-12-2018, 12:02
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USD/CAD: Support and Resistance Levels
06/12/2018

Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%. In a statement explaining the decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a much more cautious tone is used than in previous statements. On Thursday (13:50 GMT) Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech. The soft rhetoric of Stephen Poloz regarding the bank’s monetary policy will further weaken the Canadian dollar.
USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 1.3600. Above the key support level of 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a bullish trend remains.
In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
The growth targets will be the resistance levels of 1.3600, 1.3790 (2017 highs). Long positions are preferred.
Only a breakdown of support levels 1.2740 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.2700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025, 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3790




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  #335  
Old 12-12-2018, 12:56
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USD/CHF: on the eve of the meeting of the National Bank of Switzerland
Current dynamics
12/12/2018

On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank will be held on monetary policy issues. The decision on rates will be published at 08:30 (GMT).
Earlier in late September, the National Bank of Switzerland kept its negative interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate was at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was between -1.25% and -0.25%. “The bank still considers a negative interest rate necessary and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the situation requires it”, the NBS said. According to the management of the NBS, the cost of the Swiss franc is still high. It is likely that rates will remain unchanged for much of the next year, while weaker economic data has come from Switzerland. Thus, GDP in the 3rd quarter decreased by -0.2% instead of the expected growth of + 0.4% and against growth of + 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. Other macro data also indicate a slowdown in the economy.
At 09:00 (GMT) the press conference of the NBS will start. The harsh rhetoric of the speech by the head of the NBS Thomas Jordan, will help strengthen the franc. The soft tone of the speech and the tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the NBS will negatively affect the franc.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance Levels
The USD / CHF pair is trading at the beginning of the American session on Wednesday, near the strong short-term resistance level of 0.9960 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Breakdown of this level will strengthen the upward trend prevailing above key support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from 1.0300), 0.9860 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
As long as USD / CHF is above these key support levels, a long-term uptrend persists and long positions are preferred.
An alternative decline scenario may develop after the breakdown of the support level of 0.9860 with the immediate goal at the support level of 0.9745 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level of 50%).
Support levels: 0.9935, 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745
Resistance Levels: 0.9960, 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9970. Stop Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110
Sell Stop 0.9930. Stop Loss 0.9970. Take-Profit 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745, 0.9610, 0.9575


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  #336  
Old Yesterday, 11:31
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EUR/USD: Market Expectations
12/13/2018

On Thursday, the focus of attention of participants in the financial market will be the ECB meeting. The bank is expected to leave rates at current levels at least until the end of the summer of 2019. It is also likely that the ECB will confirm the completion of the asset purchase program at the end of December.
The ECB rate decision will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. If Mario Draghi makes unexpected announcements, then the volatility in euro trading and the financial market will increase significantly. The harsh rhetoric of Mario Draghi on monetary policy prospects will strengthen the euro. Conversely, the soft tone of the ECB statement and the speech of Mario Draghi will have a downward pressure on the euro.
Meanwhile, the euro will remain under pressure against the dollar, which is supported by demand from investors amid expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
While EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable. The likelihood of further decline in EUR / USD remains. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1362 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) EUR / USD will go to support levels of 1.1310 (December lows), 1.1290 (Fibonacci level of the 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1210 (November and year lows).
After EUR / USD rises to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1410 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), further corrective growth is possible to the resistance level of 1.1610.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1.1362, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1350. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1350. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790



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  #337  
Old Today, 12:23
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EUR/USD: Eurodollar remains under pressure
Current dynamics
14/12/2018

The Eurodollar remains under pressure after the ECB meeting on Thursday.
His head, Mario Draghi, pointed to the risks of the Eurozone economy, which are shifting towards the deterioration of the situation. The ECB confirmed that it will complete the QE program in December. Interest rates will remain unchanged until the summer of 2019.
The euro remains under pressure from the worsening domestic political situation in France, the reluctance of the Italian government to more strongly curtail the planned budget deficit, as required by the European Commission, as well as Brexit and uncertainty due to the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament in May.
On Friday, the decline of the EUR / USD pair continued after the publication of disappointing macro data from the Eurozone. The EUR / USD pair fell from the opening of the trading day by 0.6% and at the beginning of the American session is trading near the 1.1286 mark, trying to break through the important support level of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .
Below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with targets at support levels of 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart) are still preferred.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1400 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart) with the target at the resistance level of 1.1610.

Support Levels: 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1360, 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790


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