Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: the price of gold is declining
23/04/2018
Current dynamics
With the opening of today's trading day, the price of gold continued to decline, and already 3 days in a row. The decrease in gold quotes occurs against the backdrop of the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the growth of yield on US government bonds, which reached 2.998% at the beginning of the European session of Monday.
Earlier, gold prices received support from political uncertainty, including the threat of escalation of the conflict in Syria, as well as prospects for trade wars between China and the United States.
Gold prices were also supported by the continuing threat of new nuclear tests and missile launches by North Korea.
Last weekend it became known that North Korea is stopping nuclear and missile tests, and also closes the nuclear test site. Earlier in the media, information appeared that North Korean leader Kim Jong-ying was allegedly ready to go to curtail the nuclear strategic program in the country in exchange for US security guarantees against North Korea and its leadership.
Reducing tension in this region of the world also contributes to the fall in the value of assets-shelters, including gold. Strengthening the dollar makes gold also more expensive for holders of other currencies. The monetary policy of the Fed, aimed at tightening, also contributes to the reduction of the value of gold. Metal does not bring interest yields, so it becomes less attractive during the period of interest rate growth. The gradual increase in inflation in the US will contribute to a more bold approach by the Fed to the issue of accelerated interest rate increases in the US.
Nevertheless, despite the current strengthening of the dollar, investors are still wary of the larger purchases of the dollar. This is facilitated by the expected increase in budget expenditures, leading to an acceleration of inflation and an increase in the federal budget deficit, as well as a growing deficit in the US foreign trade balance, coupled with a trade conflict with China, whose economy is the second largest after the US.
Half of the Fed leaders still adhere to a more cautious approach to the issue of the pace of tightening monetary policy. So, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Kaplan said recently that the aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, low productivity growth rates, and high public debt could become constraints to GDP growth in the next few years. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.
Despite the decline in quotations, the demand for gold is likely to continue in the short term. Therefore, long-term investors are likely at the moment given the opportunity to increase long positions on gold. A favorable zone for gold purchases will be the range between the levels of 1331.00, 1305.00.
The geopolitical risks associated with the prospect of the start of new trade wars will "keep in shape" the buyers of gold , and the demand for gold will continue.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1320.00, 1314.00, 1305.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1331.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00

Trade Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1333.00. Take-Profit 1320.00, 1314.00, 1305.00
Buy Stop 1336.00. Stop-Loss 1329.00. Take-Profit 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: In general, the long-term bullish trend remains in force
24/04/2018
Current dynamics
Trades in world stock markets today mostly go with growth after signs of stabilization of yields of US government bonds have appeared. On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.998%, closely approaching the psychological level of 3%. The world stock markets were yesterday, probably on the verge of a new collapse. Investors fear that if the yield of 10-year government bonds exceeds 3% this week, then a new wave of sales may begin on the US stock market, which will provoke a fall on other world stock exchanges.
StoxxEurope600 in the morning trading rose by 0.3%, following the markets of Japan and Hong Kong, where there was a sharp increase.
A number of companies in Asia and Europe, included in the indices, reported profits in the first quarter. Basically, these are technology companies. But there are a number of companies in the oil and gas sector, whose profits have grown against the backdrop of the continuing rise in oil prices.
The barrel of Brent oil rose 0.4% to 74.98 dollars after reaching a maximum since November 2014, and oil and gas companies also entered the number of leaders in Europe.
Today, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 2.959% from the level of 2.998%, recorded on Monday.
It is likely that US stock markets will start trading in the US with an increase. At least, futures for the major US stock indexes are rising since the opening of the trading day on Tuesday. Futures indicates that the S&P500 will start the US trading session with an increase of 0.5%.
Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions, although asleep, may again intensify. The situation on the US Treasury bonds market has stabilized slightly, however, the yield of 10-year bonds is close to multi-month highs, closely approaching 3%.
The darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover slightly.
However, sales may once again intensify as soon as the geopolitical situation deteriorates again, and the reports of US companies may not be so positive.
Investors are not yet ready for active purchases of high-yield, but also risky, assets of the stock markets. Although, in general, the long-term bullish trend, while the S&P500 is trading above the support level of 2614.0 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), remains in force.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2680.0, 2650.0, 2630.0, 2614.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2700.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2670.0. Stop-Loss 2698.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2630.0, 2614.0, 2590.0
Buy Stop 2698.0. Stop-Loss 2670.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

Will the deal with Iran be extended?
25/04/2018
Current dynamics
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday evening, the increase in oil reserves in the US in the week of April 14-20 was +1.1 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks fell by -2.7 and -1.9 million barrels, respectively.
Participants in the oil market reacted with sufficient restraint to the API data. More strong reaction of investors was to the new statements of the US president, which he made on Tuesday at a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. As Donald Trump said, "if they (Iran) resume the nuclear program, they will have such problems as never existed."
Macron arrived in the US, including to persuade Trump not to leave the nuclear agreement on Iran in 2015, and proposed the idea of a more extensive deal. During the talks, Trump said that this nuclear agreement on Iran "should not have existed" and called the deal "insane".
Later at the press conference Trump again used tough rhetoric against Tehran. "If Iran somehow threatens us, they will pay the price that few people paid", he threatened. According to Trump, thanks to the lifting of sanctions, Iran has received too much in exchange for an insufficient reduction of the nuclear program.
However, Macron wants to expand the deal of 2015, aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear activity, until 2025. Macron hopes that the US and other countries will agree to sign a new agreement aimed at resolving those problems that the original deal did not solve.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Sunday in an interview for the CBS channel said that Iran "has prepared several options for action, including the resumption of the nuclear program and develop it very quickly" in the case of unilateral US actions aimed at seceding from the deal with Iran.
Nevertheless, after the meeting on Tuesday of French President Emmanuel Macron and Trump in the White House, prices fell. The US president expressed his interest in a possible new deal designed to limit Iran's nuclear program. According to economists, in this case it will be possible to avoid the introduction of new sanctions and leave oil production in Iran at the same level.
If before May 12, when US President Trump intends to take a decision on the Iranian agreement, there will be no unexpected statements on this issue from him, the oil market participants will again pay attention to the dynamics of the dollar, which is strengthened in the currency market, and the statistics on oil reserves and the level of production in the United States.
Today, the weekly report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT), may become the main driver on the oil market in the absence of new applications from the White House. According to the forecast of economists, the report of the US Energy Ministry will point to a drop in oil reserves in the US last week by -2.043 million barrels, and this is a positive factor for oil prices.
Reducing the reserves of oil and oil products will support the oil market, and Brent crude will again try to break into the zone above $ 75 per barrel.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 77.85, 72.40, 71.70, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 63.20, 58.00
Resistance levels: 73.50, 74.50, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 70.70. Stop-Loss 72.50. Take-Profit 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 63.20, 58.00
Buy Stop 73.50. Stop-Loss 72.30. Take-Profit 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00
Buy Limit 72.85, 72.40, 71.70. Stop Loss 70.85. Take-Profit 73.00, 73.50, 75.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: on the eve of ECB meeting
26/04/2018
Current dynamics
The center of attention of traders today is the ECB meeting and press conference, during which the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will comment on the decision on the rates. It is expected that the basic interest rate will remain at the previous zero level, and the rate on deposits - at the level of -0.4%.
Greater interest for traders will be presented by the press conference of the ECB, as well as the rhetoric of statements by Mario Draghi.
Recently, from the Eurozone, macro data comes, indicating a slowdown in the growth rate of the European economy. Against the backdrop of steadily low inflation, the risks of slowing the growth of the European economy postpone for an indefinite period the probability of the beginning of the completion of the QE program. Mario Draghi previously repeatedly made it clear that it's too early to talk about folding QE. Moreover, the incentive program can even be extended as required.
During its last meeting in March, when the ECB kept its key interest rate at 0%, and the monthly asset purchase volume of 30 billion euros, the European Central Bank announced that the bond purchases will continue until September "or longer, if necessary", and that key interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time".
It is likely that today the ECB leaders will confirm the slowdown in the growth of the Eurozone economy and point to low inflation. Under these circumstances, it is still too early for the central bank to think about curtailing the QE quantitative easing program, at least until the next meeting on June 14.
Nevertheless, investors will closely monitor the performance of Mario Draghi at the press conference. He is famous for being able to develop markets. Similar ECB decisions and statements by Mario Draghi previously moved the euro rate by 3-5% in a short period of time.
If the ECB president's rhetoric indicates a propensity for a softer policy, this could lead to a further drop in the euro, and EUR / USD may fall to around 1.2000 or lower.
Recall that the decision on the rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and the press conference, during which the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, will start at 12:30 (GMT).
Any unexpected statements by Mario Draghi can lead to a significant increase in volatility, not only in the euro bid, but throughout the financial market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2160, 1.2100, 1.2000, 1.1980, 1.1850, 1.1790, 1.1750
Resistance levels: 1.2200, 1.2240, 1.2300, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2420, 1.2445, 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2150. Stop-Loss 1.2210. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2000, 1.1980
Buy Stop 1.2210. Stop-Loss 1.2150. Take-Profit 1.2240, 1.2300, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2420, 1.2445, 1.2470, 1.2500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Pound decline accelerates
27/04/2018

Current dynamics
As reported today by the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain, the gross domestic product in the 1st quarter grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or by 1.2% year-on-year (the forecast was + 0.3% and +1.4 %, respectively).
Thus, GDP growth has slowed significantly; the UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.
Also the UK business activity index, the leading branch of the British economy was worse than expected (+0.4% vs. 0.6%, +0.6% in February). This economy sector is the bulk of the country's GDP.
The low growth rates of the British economy reduce the likelihood of an increase in the key interest rate at the May meeting of the Bank of England.
In November, for the first time in the last 10 years, the central bank raised its key interest rate to 0.5% from a record low of 0.25%, offsetting the decline made after the exit vote.
The Bank of England also signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times in order to contain the growth of inflation.
The British pound fell to a two-week low against the backdrop of published macro statistics, as investors came to the conclusion that the rate hike could be delayed.
Uncertainty about future ties between the UK and the EU persists, and economic data indicate a weak start this year.
Today at 14:00 (GMT) the performance of Mark Carney will begin. His comments, which he gave last week, have diminished the expectations of investors for raising rates, which many expected already next month. He noted that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May.
Investors will be interesting to hear his opinion today on the received weak data on GDP growth, as well as on the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England in May 10, at which the issue of monetary policy will be decided.
Also, investors will follow the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the annual US GDP for the first quarter, as well as the price indices and expenditures for personal consumption of Americans for the first quarter.
As the US Department of Labor reported yesterday, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week declined to the lowest level since 1969. This was yet another sign of improvement in the labor market after several years of steady employment growth. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week of April 15-21 fell by 24,000 and amounted to 209,000. The labor market in the US remains strong, and this is an important positive factor for GDP. Probably, US GDP will grow at 3-3.5% annually, as expected by economists. This is a strong signal for the dollar in the direction of its further strengthening, not only against the pound, but throughout the currency market.
Moreover, the FRS at the moment remains the world's single largest central bank, implementing a gradual tightening of monetary policy. And this is the most important fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar at the moment.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3740, 1.3620, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.4010. Stop-Loss 1.3880. Take-Profit 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Sell in market. Stop-Loss 1.4010. Take-Profit 1.3740, 1.3620, 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: pair's prospects are negative
03/05/2018

Current dynamics
According to the research company IHS Markit, published today, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in April was 52.8 (against 51.7 in March and the forecast of 53.5). A value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Nevertheless, the PMI index of the services sector was another signal that the growth of the British economy at the beginning of the second quarter was restrained.
Earlier in the week, other disappointing macro data were published, pointing to the weak growth of the UK economy in April. So, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector, published on Tuesday, was the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 on forecast and 54.9 in March).
As reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain last week, the gross domestic product in the 1st quarter grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or 1.2% on an annualized basis (forecast was + 0.3% and +1 , 4%, respectively). Data suggest that GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.
Also worse than expected was the index of business activity in the service sector, the leading branch of the British economy, which accounts for the bulk of the country's GDP (+ 0.4% vs. 0.6% + 0.6% in February).
Low growth rates of the British economy reduce the likelihood of an increase in the key interest rate at the May meeting of the Bank of England, which will take place next week (May 10).
Against the backdrop of weak macro statistics, investors came to the conclusion that the rate hike could be postponed. Uncertainty about future ties between the UK and the EU persists, and economic data indicate a weak start this year. The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, last month said that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May.
The Fed meeting ended on Wednesday, on the contrary, pointed to the determination of the Fed and further to gradually raise the interest rate. In the comments to this decision, the central bank's leaders noted the acceleration of inflation in the US. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE), in March showed an annual growth of 2%.
The dollar strengthened after the Fed meeting, and, despite its today's corrective decline, the dollar is likely to grow further, including against the pound.
"A too slow increase in rates will lead to the need to sharply tighten monetary policy at some point, jeopardizing GDP growth", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month .The rise in inflation pressures could still force the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster pace, and this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening of the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3400, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3615, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.3640. Stop-Loss 1.3550. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400
Sell Stop 1.3550. Stop-Loss 1.3640. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: Dollar is rising in price, gold becomes cheaper
04/05/2018
Current dynamics
Since the opening of today's trading day, the price of gold has resumed its decline amid the strengthening of the dollar. Spot gold prices in London fell by 0.2% to 1309.40 dollars per ounce. Since last month, gold prices have fallen by 0.2%.
At the same time, the dollar continues to strengthen. After reaching the current year's low in February, the WSJ dollar index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, rose by more than 4%.
It is known that at the meeting which came to the end on Wednesday, the Fed confirmed intention to adhere to the plan for gradual tightening of monetary policy. The PCE personal consumption expenditure price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) showed an annual growth of 2% in March. Tax cuts and increased government spending this year will help to strengthen domestic demand. The imposition of import duties would increase the cost of imports, which could also put pressure on inflation. Now many people are interested in how the Fed will act if inflation exceeds 2%.
"Too slow a rate hike will lead to the fact that at some point will need to sharply tighten monetary policy, putting at risk GDP growth”, - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month.
According to the quotes of futures on interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in June at about 100%, and the probability of three more rate hikes this year at 50% (against 32% a month earlier).
On Thursday, another series of positive macro statistics on the United States was published. Among other things, it should be noted a significant relative decrease of foreign trade deficit of the United States (nearly $ 9 billion or 17%). This is a very positive development in favour of further strengthening the dollar.
Meanwhile, investors are watching the trade talks between the US and China, which will be held this week. USA gave China a long list of requirements from the immediate reduction of the imbalance in trade to 100 billion dollars a year to the suspending of support by the Chinese government advanced technologies. The US trade deficit with China last year amounted to $ 375 billion. US President Donald trump has repeatedly said about the need to reduce this figure by 100 billion dollars a year. In the document, the US demands that Beijing reduce its trade surplus by at least $ 200 billion by the end of 2020.
In addition, the US demands that Beijing guarantee that it will not take retaliatory measures against the United States under intellectual property disputes.
If the negotiations are successful, the dollar will probably growth up again.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of data from the US labor market at 12:30 (GMT). Strong performance is expected (the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in April increased by 192 000 against +103 000 in March, and unemployment fell by 0.1% to 4.0%, to the lowest level in 18 months). In the short term, the dollar may react with restraint to the report from the labor market, since 3 rate hikes this year have already been included in the quotes. However, if the data will be better, the dollar will receive another strong support amid positive macro statistics coming in recent weeks from the United States. Probably, gold will continue to fall in price. At the same time, geopolitical risks will continue to "keep the tone" of gold buyers, and the demand for gold will resume with the next aggravation of the geopolitical or domestic political situation in the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1305.00, 1295.00, 1277.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1313.00, 1318.00, 1327.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1319.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1295.00, 1277.00
Buy Stop 1319.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1327.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: low interest rates are desirable
07/05/2018

Current dynamics
Last week, the central bank of Australia, as expected, left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. According to the RBA Governor Philip Lowey, at present there are no arguments in favor of changing the RBA monetary policy.
On Tuesday, Philip Lowy said that "the low level of interest rates continues to support the Australian economy".
At the level of 1.5%, the RBA rate is already since the middle of 2016, and economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.
The RBA raised the forecast for core inflation by mid-2018 from 1.75% to 2.0%, to the lower limit of the RBA's target range of 2% -3%. At the same time, the RBA does not expect further growth in core inflation until June 2020.
On Friday, in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia revised upward its forecast for the unemployment rate. Now, given the negative dynamics of the Australian labor market from the beginning of 2018, the long-awaited increase in the RBA rate in the first half of 2019 may be in jeopardy.
Nevertheless, the situation in the Australian labor market remains a key factor in the prospects for raising the key interest rate of the country's central bank.
"The board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", the statement adds.
Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.
If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.
On Tuesday, investors will be attracted by the publication (09:30 GMT) of the Australian government's annual budget plan. The impact of this document on the market and on the quotations of the Australian dollar is high, because it can have a significant impact on the economy.
At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed in combination with strong economic data of the US supports the US dollar. Its growth, most likely, will continue in the short term.
The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD/USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7550, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7565. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7565. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: US stock indexes are falling before the speech of Donald Trump
08/05/2018

Current dynamics
Major US stock indexes are down on the eve of the speech of US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump wrote on Twitter that he would announce a decision on the Iranian nuclear agreement on Tuesday. The deadline for the adoption of this decision by the US expires on May 12.
Traders took a wait-and-see position before the decision of US President Donald Trump on the Iranian nuclear deal. If Trump still decides to withdraw from the agreement and the US restores economic sanctions against Iran, it will lead to a reduction in the supply of oil from Iran, reduce the world supply of oil and cause an increase in oil prices.
In this case, the Fed may begin to respond more acutely to consumer price growth, which is partly related to the expected increase in oil prices, and to raise interest rates faster than previously expected. This is a negative factor for stock indices, although the dollar will benefit from this.
The strengthening of inflationary pressures in the US can stimulate the Fed to further raise interest rates this year. According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases of 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is 2.954%, which indicates the expected increase in inflation, and therefore, at a higher rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.
It is also necessary to take into account the impressive deficit of the US foreign trade balance and the federal budget deficit, which can be further aggravated against the backdrop of the new tax and economic policy of the White House and expectations of a significant increase in budget expenditures.
In recent weeks, the main US stock indices are hesitating in anticipation of the Fed's actions and trade negotiations between the US and China, which ended on Friday with nothing.
Negative dynamics of US stock indexes persists in the medium term, although in the long run, indices are still in a long-term bull trend.
Recall that the beginning of the performance of Donald Trump is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2672.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2640.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2640.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the price tends to the marks around 80.00
10/05/2018
Current dynamics
According to official data released by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, commercial oil reserves in this country fell by 2.197 million barrels last week (the forecast assumed a drop in stocks of only 0.719 million barrels). Gasoline inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels (forecasted decline is of only 0.4 million barrels), diesel fuel inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels against the expected drop of 1.4 million barrels.
This is a positive factor for oil prices. However, prices continue to grow, playing out the recent US decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran, as well as the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced the renunciation of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which means the resumption of sanctions against this country.
It is expected that the resumption of sanctions will lead to a reduction in Iran's oil production, a key member of OPEC, and a reduction in the world supply of oil.
Analysts of the oil market believe that the resumption of sanctions could lead to the withdrawal of Iranian oil from the world market and to a reduction in the world supply of oil by 700,000 barrels a day. Previously, the sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 led to the withdrawal of about 1 million barrels of Iranian oil from the market.
At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.
Israeli forces struck at Iranian facilities in Syria after rockets were fired from Iranian military bases to the positions of the Israeli army in the Golan Heights. In addition, Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels on Wednesday launched rockets for Saudi Arabia.
On Thursday, July futures for Brent crude went up by 0.75% to 77.79 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude rose during the Asian session to 77.80, a new high since November 2014.
It is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, given geopolitical risks and possible interruptions in supplies from Iraq and Venezuela, as well as OPEC's intent to adhere to a plan to further limit oil production.
According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world for oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.
But even despite the growth in oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand in the current situation.
On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report will be published from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 834 units. The next growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and positive - for oil prices. Probably, the price for Brent crude oil will try to break into the zone around $ 80 per barrel.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 77.00, 76.60, 76.00, 74.90, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 64.30, 63.20
Resistance levels: 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 75.80. Stop-Loss 77.20. Take-Profit 75.00, 74.00, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70
Buy Stop 77.80. Stop-Loss 75.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00
Buy Limit 72.25. Stop Loss 70.00. Take-Profit 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: investors fix profit after growth of US dollar
11/05/2018

Current dynamics
After the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% in April, the Canadian dollar declined. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, there is the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.
Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices. Strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD / CAD will continue if the bull market continues to be present in the oil market.
So far, everything is in favor of further price increases after Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The unilateral exit of the US from the deal implies the resumption of sanctions against Iran and limiting of the Iranian oil on the world market, which is approximately 1 million barrels a day.
At 12:30 (GMT), the publication of data from the Canadian labor market is planned. It is expected that unemployment in Canada in April remained at 5.8%, and the number of employed increased by 17,400 people. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen, and the USD / CAD will decrease.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is declining from the opening of today's trading day. Investors continued to analyze yesterday's weak data on consumer inflation in the US. The growth in consumer price indices was less significant than economists had expected.
Data pointed to a possible slowdown in inflation, and this is a negative sign for the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy and the prospects for strengthening the US dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2765, 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2780. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: investors are expecting for data from the UK labor market
14/05/2018

Current dynamics
As you know, last week the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50% without risking the weak recovery of the British economy, and also with the continuing of uncertainties regarding Brexit. The program for the purchase of stock assets by the Bank of England also remained unchanged at the level of 435 billion pounds sterling a year.
The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.
In early May, disappointing macro data were published, indicating a weak growth in the UK economy in April. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector turned out to be the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 under forecasts and 54.9 in March). Gross domestic product in the 1st quarter increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or by 1.2% year-on-year (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.4%, respectively). Thus, GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.
Slowing down the rate of inflation also caused the Bank of England leaders to refrain from raising the interest rate. So, the consumer price index pointed out that the annual inflation in the UK in March slowed from 2.7% to 2.5%.
On Tuesday, the focus of traders will be data from the British labor market, including data on employment and wages, which will be published at 08:30 (GMT). If the data here also prove to be weak, then the prospect of an increase in the rate in August will be postponed for an even later period. Although, some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November.
The Bank of England's propensity for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.
As stated on Monday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability". In her opinion, "fiscal policy turns from limiting to stimulating, the growth rate of the economy exceeds trend, and investments are increasing, so the neutral interest rate is also likely to grow".
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3535, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.3625. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3710, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400
Sell Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3625. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: the dynamics of the pair is determined, basically, by the strengthening of the dollar
15/05/2018
Current dynamics
As reported by the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics this morning, the import price and producer prices index rose by 0.4% in April (+ 2.7% in annual terms), mainly due to higher oil and equipment prices. The forecast was +0.3% and + 3.0%, respectively.
This has not yet led to an increase in consumer prices; annual consumer inflation in Switzerland is 0.8%. Nevertheless, the current weakening of the Swiss franc and the increase in producer prices can increase inflationary pressures and provoke the acceleration of consumer inflation in the coming months.
This, on the one hand, can contribute to changing the NBS rhetoric about the current monetary policy. On the other hand, the NBS already almost traditionally considers the franc overbought and conducts an extra-soft monetary policy aimed at reducing the relative value of the franc.
As you know, in mid-March, the Swiss National Bank left its negative interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remained at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate also remained unchanged, between -1.25% and -0.25%. The NBS traditionally stated that the franc rate is still too high, which indicates that the NBS still intends to keep rates in the negative territory.
"The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it", the NBS said.
At the moment, the USD / CHF reached the levels of October-November last year, near the mark 1.0030, from which the weakening of the pair began. Beginning in February, when the USD / CHF reached its 3-year lows near the 0.9200 mark, then the pair almost weekly grew.
During this period, the dynamics of the USD / CHF was determined, basically, by a large-scale strengthening of the dollar.
A cheap franc is beneficial to Swiss exporters. It will be interesting now to listen to the opinion of the head of the NBS, Thomas Jordan, about the current weakening of the franc. Will his performance strengthen the franc and reduce the USD / CHF from current levels, or the NBS will be tolerant of further weakening of the franc and the growth of the pair USD / CHF to the resistance level of 1.0300. From this level twice in the last 3 years (in November 2015 and December 2016) another wave of USD / CHF decline began.
Speech by Thomas Jordan is scheduled for Wednesday (16:00 GMT).
So far, the difference in the direction of monetary policy in the US and Switzerland is the most important argument in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CHF.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9965, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610
Resistance levels: 1.0030, 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 1.0040. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300
Sell Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 1.0040. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

We congratulate you on the Sacred Holiday - the beginning of Ramadan!

Tifia Markets Limited congratulates all Muslims on the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan! May Ramadan bring you force and patience and free your soul, body, and life from bad things. May your good deeds, mercy and sympathy reward you with peace, happiness, love, and well-being. May all nations live in peace and harmony!

We know that the Holy month of Ramadan lays special emphasis on charity. Respecting this tradition, Tifia Markets Limited invites its clients to participate in special promotions dedicated to Ramadan:

Ramadan Charity while trading Program - https://tifia.com/ms/contests/ramadan-charity-2018

Ramadan Giveaway –
https://tifia.com/ms/contests/ramadan-giveaway

Tifia Markets Limited wishes you well not only during the holy month, but in the whole course of your life.

May joy, love, and understanding reign in your homes!

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the positive dynamics will be preserved, despite the current correction
16/05/2018
Current dynamics
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude oil inventories in the US for the week of +4.854 million barrels. Nevertheless, this information almost did not affect the quotations of oil, futures for which increased by 35 cents, to 71.31 dollars per barrel following the results of trades on Nymex.
The spot price for Brent crude at the end of the trading day on Tuesday was near the mark of 77.90, after rising to new annual highs near the 79.25 dollars per barrel in the middle of the trading day.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, oil reserves in advanced economies fell to a three-year low.
In its monthly report, which closely follows the markets, the IEA reported a reduction in oil reserves in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in March compared to the previous month by 26.8 million barrels, to 62.819 billion barrels. This level is 1 million barrels below the 5-year average, which is used by participants to assess the process of market rebalancing. The efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to level the world's excess supply, which has put pressure on the oil market since the end of 2014, is bearing fruit.
Since the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, oil reserves in the OECD countries have fallen by 233 million barrels. As you know, OPEC and 10 oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, from the beginning of last year reduce the total oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day.
The market is also supported by geopolitical risks. Iran is the third largest OPEC oil producer, and in the past sanctions limited Iranian oil exports by about 1 million barrels a day. If the US now restores sanctions against the Islamic Republic (currently Iran exports about 2.4 million barrels a day), it will reduce OPEC's total production and further reduce the global supply.
At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.
Nevertheless, oil prices have so far suspended growth and declined from the highs for three and a half years on signs that the oil rally is beginning to weaken the growth in demand.
In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the forecast for growth in oil demand in 2018 was reduced to 1.4 million barrels per day against the previous estimate of 1.5 million barrels per day, including because of a significant price increase.
In the current year, Brent oil prices have increased by about 17%, and since 2016 prices have increased by approximately 2.6 times.
On Wednesday (at 14:30 GMT), the Ministry of Energy will provide official data on oil and petroleum products in the US. The stock is expected to decline by -0.763 million barrels, which will positively affect oil prices while confirming the forecast.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40, 72.00, 70.40, 70.00, 66.90, 64.80, 63.30, 58.00
Resistance levels: 78.50, 79.30, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 76.80. Stop-Loss 78.60. Take-Profit 76.00, 75.60, 75.00, 74.40, 73.40
Or Buy Limit 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40. Stop-Loss 72.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00
Buy Stop 78.60. Stop-Loss 76.80. Take-Profit 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails
17/05/2018

Current dynamics
As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the unemployment rate in April was 5.6% after 5.5% in March (the forecast was 5.5%). Nevertheless, other articles of the report were more positive, and the Australian currency strengthened. Thus, the number of jobs increased by 22,600 against the expected 20,000, the number of full-time jobs increased in April by 32,700, and the number of part-time jobs dropped by 10,000. Meanwhile, the proportion of economically active population in Australia in April was 65.6% after 65.5% in March and compared with the forecast of 65.5%.
Published on Wednesday, data showed that the growth rate of wages in Australia remained near the record low in the first three months of this year. Wage growth in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 was + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate. Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.
Since mid-2016, the RBA's key rate is at a record low of 1.5%.
Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise. Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.
"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.
Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.
If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.
In general, the negative dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains. The US dollar receives support from the growing yield of 10-year US government bonds, which reached a new high of 3.122% on Thursday.
The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7565, 0.7595, 0.7655, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: oil price growth supports CAD
18/05/2018

Current dynamics
Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canada's investments and exports, said earlier in the week, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Lawrence Schembri.
"Economic capacities are almost fully loaded, inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and yet rates remain below the neutral level, in part because we have to hedge ourselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations", added Lawrence Shembry.
As you know, in April the Bank of Canada left the rate at the same level of 1.25%. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules", said in the central bank.
Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices.
So, Brent oil prices exceeded the $ 80 mark per barrel on Thursday, although they fell to 79.30 by the end of the trading day. The US decision to resume economic sanctions against Iran continued to support the rally in oil prices, which reached new highs since November 2014.
If the bull market continues to be in the oil market, then the probability of strengthening the Canadian dollar will increase.
At 12:30 (GMT), publication of data on retail sales and consumer inflation in Canada is planned. Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.3% in March, after rising by 0.4% in February. The level of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence, which reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of this indicator is a bullish factor for CAD.
The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of prices relative to the retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The growth of CPI is a positive factor for CAD. Forecast: consumer prices rose in Canada by 0.4% in April (against +0.3% in March). The base CPI rose in April, expected to be +1.4% (in annual terms). Thus, the CPI indicators are still weak, so that the Bank of Canada could return to the issue of raising the interest rate.
If the data are better than forecasts, then against the backdrop of rising oil prices, as well as against the fixation of profit in long positions on the US dollar at the end of the trading week, CAD can significantly strengthen against the USD.
In any case, a surge in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected during the publication of this macro statistics.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2805, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260
Buy Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: US and China agree on trade armistice
21/05/2018

Current dynamics
Markets positively perceived the information that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. At last weekend's talks, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of goods manufactured in the US to reduce the US trade deficit with China, which is $ 375 billion now.
The Trump administration tried to force China to agree to reduce the trade imbalance by $ 200 billion.
Nevertheless, Beijing has refused to determine the exact amount of purchases in dollar terms, and now everything depends on the talks between the two presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping.
On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that the administration of US President Donald Trump intends to "put the trade war on a pause" and postpone the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China, until the two sides discuss the details of the agreement to reduce the trade deficit.
The successful season of reporting US companies for the first quarter also contributed to the growth of US stock indices in recent days.
At the same time, long-term estimates of inflation in the US are still restrained, despite improvements in indicators. In this regard, investors are interested in how actively the Fed will react to one-time price increases.
As you know, at the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. In 2017, the rates were also raised 3 times. This temp of tightening of monetary policy is already taken into account in quotes.
According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases at 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes.
Now investors will carefully monitor the release of the minutes of the Fed's May meeting (on Wednesday 18:00 GMT), which may shed light on how quickly rates will be raised in response to increased inflation.
On Friday (13:20 GMT) the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will act. If he signals a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then US stock indices may fall again. As a rule, raising rates leads to the strengthening of the national currency and to a decrease in the attractiveness of the assets of the stock market.
Meanwhile, the bullish trend of the US stock market remains.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2712.0, 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2741.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2700.0. Stop-Loss 2742.0. Objectives 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0
Buy Stop 2742.0. Stop-Loss 2700.0. Objectives 2760.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: negative dynamics prevails
22/05/2018

Current dynamics
As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, stated today, "the signs of the restoration of momentum can be manifested in the next few months". "If the momentum recovers, then, according to our guidelines, certain actions will follow logically", added Carney. In the meantime, Mark Carney suggests waiting for "recovery of momentum before raising the stakes".
Another representative of the Bank of England Vlige spoke in the same vein, saying that "we can wait for a few more months without special expenses before raising rates".
As you know, earlier in the month the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50%. In the face of continuing uncertainties regarding Brexit, as well as against the backdrop of the absence of "signs of recovery of momentum", the Bank of England preferred not to change the current conditions of monetary policy. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in the summer of 2016 did not happen, the collapse of the pound and the subsequent rapid growth of inflation significantly worsened the level of welfare of the British. The fall in the level of retail sales and domestic demand had a negative impact on the UK economy, focused primarily on the domestic market.
The tightening of the monetary policy of the central bank would have a stimulating effect on the growth of consumer spending, especially with regard to imported goods.
However, the increase in the interest rate makes higher interest rates on loans for commercial banks and for the population, including mortgage loans. A higher exchange rate of the national currency also reduces the competitiveness of export products abroad, which negatively affects the country's exporters. The deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds and has a tendency to increase. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.
On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on consumer inflation in the UK will be published. As expected, the consumer price index (CPI) will indicate that the growth rate of annual inflation in April did not change (2.5% against 2.5% in March).
If the data does indicate an acceleration of inflation, the Bank of England will be forced to tighten monetary policy. Some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November, which will cause the strengthening of the pound.
Meanwhile, representatives of the Federal Reserve regularly give signals about the commitment of the US central bank to a plan to further tighten monetary policy.
So, on Tuesday, a member of the Committee on open market operations, the FRS Patrick Harker said that he will support three more increases in the key rate this year. It is characteristic that even last month Harker was among those who spoke of "two more rises".
According to another member of the FOMC, Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy to avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability".
Thus, the Bank of England's predilection for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3720, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: weakening of inflation pressure in Great Britain
23/05/2018

Current dynamics
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, consumer prices in the UK in April rose by 2.4% (in annual terms) after growing 2.5% in March. The forecast assumed an increase of + 2.5%. The rate of price growth in April was the weakest since March 2017. On the one hand, this is good for British consumers; on the other hand, a weakening of inflationary pressures postpones a probable increase in the interest rate in the UK to a later date.
At its previous meeting, the bank's management left rates at the same level, as official statistics pointed to the weakness of economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%. At the same time, the deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds sterling and has a tendency to increase.
As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said on Tuesday, we should wait "restoring of momentum before raising the stakes".
Political events are also putting pressure on the pound. Conservative politician Jacob
Rice-Mogg, who actively supported Brexit, accused the British government of weakness. Statements by a government spokesman suggest a renewed risk of a change in the composition of the country's leadership. The pound is unlikely to grow until this uncertainty is resolved with Brexit and the composition of the UK government.
At the same time, the Fed leaders continue to give signals for the continuation of the Fed's policy, aimed at further tightening of monetary policy.
According to FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policies to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".
Today, the focus of traders' attention will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the May meeting of the Fed. If it turns out that the Fed assesses the economy less optimistically than the market expects, then it can deploy the dollar, or at least suspend its strengthening.
At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. However, investors expect that on the background of positive macro statistics and a strong labor market in the US, the Fed can make 4 rate increases this year.
This will significantly increase the investment attractiveness of the dollar among investors looking for a stable profit.
If the Fed's protocols contain signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the strengthening of the dollar will continue.
The different focus of the monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States will further reduce the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3505, 1.3600


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: retail sales in the UK rose in April
24/05/2018

Current dynamics
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) report released on Thursday, retail sales in UK rose 1.6% in March after falling by -1.1% in March. The data presented became a pleasant surprise for the pound buyers after in the 1st quarter of this year compared to the last quarter of 2017, sales decreased by 0.5%.
The increase in retail sales may indicate the restoration of consumer confidence, as well as the acceleration of inflation, which may prompt the Bank of England to tighten its monetary policy. Nevertheless, the data released on Wednesday on consumer price inflation for April showed the weakest growth in more than a year.
In a broader perspective, "the growth in retail sales has slowed significantly, and the growth in sales of food, household items and sales in online stores has largely been offset by a decline in sales of many other goods and services", said National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Rob Kent-Smith. At the same time, it is likely that the salaries of the British will grow only gradually. In this case, the retail sector is likely to remain under pressure.
The UK economy is focused mainly on the domestic market, while the retail and domestic consumption sector is an important part of the British economy.
It is expected that in 2018 the UK economy will grow more slowly than other developed economies, as the uncertainty of the Brexit conditions puts pressure on activity and investment.
On Tuesday, the Governor of the Bank of England and members of the Committee on Monetary Policy said in Parliament that the bank could raise interest rates "in a few months". However, we should wait for "recovery of momentum before raising rates".
At the same time, as follows from the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, published on Wednesday, the leaders of the US central bank came to the conclusion that "the next increase in interest rates will be expedient in the near future". However, there is no consensus on 3 or 4 rate increases this year among the leaders of the Fed.
Nevertheless, the leaders of the Fed intend to systematically pursue the planned monetary policy aimed at its further tightening.
With an increasing interest rate, the attractiveness of the dollar will grow. According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".
Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD pair.
From the news for today we are waiting for the speech at 17:00 (GMT) of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. If he touches on the topic of monetary policy in his speech, then volatility in pound trade can grow dramatically.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3680, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3470. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3680



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

WTI: oil quotes are down
25/05/2018
Current dynamics
After the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported on Wednesday about the growth of oil reserves in the US last week by 5.8 million barrels (although analysts had expected a decrease of 2.2 million barrels), quotes of oil prices crawled down.
Oil prices are also under pressure due to reports that OPEC at the June meeting may decide to increase oil production amid fears of a reduction in production in Iran and Venezuela.
On Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia and other major oil producers at the OPEC+ meeting next month will discuss mitigation of the terms of the agreement on production reduction. The Russian minister noted that he will discuss with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members the possibility of a "gradual recovery of oil production".
Thus, the direction of the oil price dynamics is currently in the grip between the growth of oil reserves in the US and the intention of OPEC to increase oil production, on the one hand, and geopolitical risks, on the other hand.
Among geopolitical risks - the resumption of US sanctions against Iran and the aggravation of the crisis in Venezuela, which led to a reduction in oil production in the country. Trump's decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran is still a strong driver for rising oil prices. Because of possible US sanctions against Iran, the supply of oil in the world market may decrease by about 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil.
As we see, the risks associated with the possible increase in oil production by OPEC so far outweigh, and oil prices are declining.
On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US will be published. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 844 units. Another growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 69.10, 68.00, 66.90, 66.30, 65.50
Resistance levels: 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 75.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 68.70. Stop-Loss 70.10. Take-Profit 68.00, 66.90, 66.30, 65.50
Buy Stop 70.10. Stop-Loss 68.70. Take-Profit 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: CAD weakens amid lower oil prices
28/05/2018

Current dynamics
On Wednesday, May 30, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on the interest rate. After the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% in April, the Canadian dollar declined. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.
Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canadian investment and exports, said earlier this month, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri, noting that "we (at the Bank of Canada) have to hedge themselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations".
The USD / CAD is currently in the grip between two differently directed factors. The strengthening US dollar and the uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA agreement support the USD / CAD pair. At the same time, rising oil prices help strengthen the Canadian dollar and reduce the pair USD / CAD.
However, the last few days, oil prices are falling due to reports that OPEC may decide at its June meeting to increase oil production amid fears of a reduction in production in Iran and Venezuela.
So, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih said on Friday he wants to discuss the possibility of easing the requirements for limiting production with other participants in the OPEC + agreement during the meeting in June.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, the question of likely investors switching to US assets", said in the Bank of Canada in the accompanying statement after the decision on the interest rate at the previous meeting in April.
Economists expect that at the May meeting (May 30), the Bank of Canada will also not change the current monetary policy. The rate will remain at the current level of 1.25%.
Nevertheless, investors will carefully study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada in order to understand the intentions of the central bank regarding the prospects for the monetary policy of the bank. Any hints of a rate hike in the coming months could cause a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market, primarily in currency pairs with the Canadian dollar, including in the pair USD / CAD.
If the rhetoric of the Bank of Canada's statement is soft, it will cause further weakening of the Canadian dollar. However, with the resumption of rising oil prices, it is also necessary to wait for the resumption of the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900, 1.2830, 1.2800, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2940. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2830, 1.2800, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2940. Take-Profit 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3300, 1.3450



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for gold as a safe haven grew
29/05/2018
Current dynamics
On Sunday, Italian President Sergio Mattarella blocked the formation of a Eurosceptic government. On Monday, representatives of European countries expressed concern about the unstable political situation in Italy, which could provoke a new centrifugal crisis in the Eurozone.
The situation with Brexit is not yet fully settled, and in Spain a new political crisis is maturing after the referendum in Catalonia, the political crisis in Italy again made us speak about the future of a united Europe.
On Wednesday in Paris, high-ranking representatives of the EU and the US will hold talks on trade issues. Negotiations will take place in the context of deepening contradictions between Europe and the US on trade and defense issues. The European Commission was told that they will seek to abolish duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US from Europe and exclude the EU from the duty regime two days before the end of the deferment of their introduction.
Investors as a whole avoid risks, in connection with which the prices for government bonds of the US and Germany are growing. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.8% on Tuesday from the level of 3,122%, fixed in the middle of last week. The yield of similar German bonds fell to 0.214% from yesterday's 0.340%.
The unstable geopolitical situation in the world once again provoked an increase in demand for safe haven assets, such as yen and gold. Quotes of gold on Tuesday increased again.
Nevertheless, the current growth in the price of gold in the face of a strengthening dollar can be considered corrective and used to build short positions on gold.
As you know, at the meeting that ended in early May, the Fed confirmed its intention to adhere to its plan to gradually tighten monetary policy. "Too slow increase of rates will lead to the fact that at some point it will be necessary to sharply tighten monetary and credit policy, putting GDP growth at risk", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month.
On June 12-13, the Fed will hold a regular meeting, and most market participants believe that at this meeting the interest rate will be increased by 0.25% to 2.00%.
According to the Fed interest rate futures quotes, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in June at about 100%, and the likelihood of another three rate increases this year is approximately 50% (compared to 32% a month earlier).
As you know, in the context of an increase in the interest rate, the price of gold is falling, because it is more difficult for him to compete with other objects for long-term investments that generate revenue, such as, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing.
The focus of traders this week will be the publication (on Friday 12:30 (GMT)) of data from the US labor market. Strong figures are expected (the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy increased by 185,000 in May against +164,000 in April, unemployment remained at the same low level of 3.9%, the lowest level in the last 18 months). If the data prove to be better, the dollar will receive another strong support against the backdrop of positive macro statistics coming in recently from the US, and gold will continue to fall in price.
Only weak macro data from the United States, as well as an even greater strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the world, can push gold quotes higher. So far, negative dynamics prevails.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1299.00, 1295.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1248.00
Resistance level: 1304.00, 1310.00, 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1311.00. Take-Profit 1295.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1311.00. Stop-Loss 1294.00. Take-Profit 1322.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: The Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate
30/05/2018

Current dynamics
Political instability in Italy and its possible consequences for the European economy forces investors to buy safe assets. Against this background, not only the euro is falling, but also the quotations of commodity currencies, as well as commodity prices, are falling. Against this negative background, the Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar, reaching a 2-month low at 1.3045 on Tuesday.
The US dollar, which also enjoys the status of a safe asset in this situation, continued to grow on Tuesday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, reached its new annual high of 94.98 on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, on Wednesday the US dollar took a pause and declined from the opening of the trading day. Futures on DXY traded at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday near the mark of 94.35.
Today the publication of important macroeconomic data is expected.
In particular, at 12:15 (GMT) ADP data on the number of jobs in the private sector of the US for May will come out. If they are strong, then the positive trend of the dollar will resume. As a result, the dollar index DXY could rise to 96, according to many economists. It is expected that the number of employed in the private sector of the US rose in May by 190,000 (after an increase of +204,000 in April). Strong ADP data on employment in the private sector will support the upward momentum of the dollar.
At 12:30 (GMT), the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce will publish data on US GDP for the first quarter (second estimate). Data on GDP are one of the key (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. In the previous quarter, GDP growth was + 2.5%. The forecast for the 1st quarter of this year is 2.3% (2.3% on the preliminary release). The dollar will decrease only if the data prove to be much worse than the forecast.
Despite the decline observed today, the dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange market.
At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will not change the current monetary policy. The rate will remain at the current level of 1.25%.
As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier this month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations".
The strengthening US dollar and the uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA agreement support the USD / CAD pair.
Nevertheless, investors will carefully study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada. Rigid rhetoric of the accompanying statement and any hint of a rate hike in the coming months could cause a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market and lead to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
If the rhetoric of the Bank of Canada's statement is soft, it will cause further weakening of the Canadian dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2865, 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3050. Take-Profit 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2865, 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Buy Stop 1.3050. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3300, 1.3450



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

WTI: decrease of reserves in US oil storage facilities is expected
31/05/2018
Current dynamics
As the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Wednesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels.
This is negative information for oil quotes, which are again declining after corrective growth the day before.
At the beginning of the European trading session on Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil fell below the psychological level of 68.00 dollars per barrel.
After reaching an annual maximum near the $ 73.00 per barrel level last week, prices fell by 10% over the next 5 trading days, coming close to $ 66.00 per barrel.
The fall in oil prices was triggered by expectations that OPEC might increase oil production in June.
Last Friday, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to soften the terms of the OPEC + agreement and increase oil production. The OPEC + agreement on production reduction came into force in January 2017, and since then oil prices have risen by about 35%. The agreement expires at the end of 2018.
Earlier in May, Brent oil prices broke through the level of $ 80 per barrel, and this happened for the first time since 2014.
Now, due to an increase in production of 1 million barrels per day, prices may fall by about $ 15 per barrel.
On Friday, a weekly report from the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes was released, according to which the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again and currently stands at 859 units (against 844 in the week before last). The growth of this indicator is another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.
On Thursday, oil market participants are waiting for the publication of weekly data from the US Department of Energy, which will be released at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, then it will support oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 67.00, 66.30, 65.50
Resistance levels: 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 67.30. Stop-Loss. 68.20. Take-Profit 67.00, 66.30, 65.50
Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 67.30. Take-Profit 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the activity of traders is minimal before NFP
01/06/2018

Current dynamics
The volume of consumer lending in the UK in April rose sharply after a period of weakness in March.
The data published on Thursday pointed to the strongest growth in unsecured consumer lending for almost 18 months. Unsecured consumer lending jumped to 1.8 billion pounds in April after falling to 400 million British pounds in March.
This signal can affect the Bank of England and convince in the need to raise the key interest rate in the coming months.
On Friday, the pound gained additional support after the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector, which in May exceeded the forecast of 53.5, to 54.4, was published at the beginning of the European session.
The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the last year of the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.
After the publication of the data, the pound strengthened, and the GBP / USD pair increased by 30 points relative to the opening price of today.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is trading almost unchanged, while investors are preparing to the publishing of important economic report at the end of the week.
The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, today declined slightly at the beginning of the European session, to 93.95, after it reached its next annual maximum of 94.98 on Tuesday.
At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will report on the most important indicators of the labor market in the US in May (Average hourly wage / Number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / Unemployment rate). Forecast: + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in April) / 188 000 (against 164 000 in April) / 3.9% (against 3.9% in April), respectively.
In general, the indicators can be called strong. If they coincide with the forecast or come out better, then this will have a positive effect on the USD.
Strong data will strengthen the likelihood of four Fed rate increases this year. In this case, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.
According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".
Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD.
However, if the data prove to be worse than the forecast or market participants find the report on the labor market weak, then the dollar will inevitably fall.
In any case, it is often difficult to predict the market reaction to the publication of indicators. Often, a strong move to the one side should be followed by an equally strong rollback to the other side, since the data published earlier is often revised.
Probably the most successful trading position today will be to stay out of the market, at least, in this period of time.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3350. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3620




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: despite corrective growth, downward dynamics predominate
04/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday, the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 223,000 in May (forecast was +188,000), while unemployment fell to 3.8 percent, the lowest level since 1969.
The number of jobs in the US has been growing for 92 months in a row, which is the longest such period in the history of such statistics.
The growth in demand for labor should positively affect wages, which are still growing at a moderate pace. The average hourly earnings in the US in May grew by 2.7% (in annual terms).
The US dollar recovered with support for strong employment data for May, which made it more likely to accelerate the rate of interest rate increase in the coming months.
The probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0% at a meeting to be held June 12-13 is almost 100%, according to the CME Group.
However, more interest for investors will be represented by the text of the Fed's accompanying statement about the prospects of monetary policy and the probability of more accelerated rates of its tightening. 3 planned Fed rate increases this year are already taken into account in the quotes of the US dollar.
If the Fed signals about a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar's growth will resume.
Meanwhile, there is a decline in the US dollar after its growth on Friday against the backdrop of strong data from the US labor market.
The Trump administration does not show signs of concern about the possible start of a trade war. "When the deficit of foreign trade is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his twitter page on Saturday. "The USA has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to take on the mind," he added.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar received support in the morning from the publication of positive macro statistics, according to which, retail sales in Australia in April rose by 0.4% (forecast was + 0.2%), companies' profit in Australia in the 1st quarter increased to + 5.9% (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 2.8% in the previous quarter).
Nevertheless, key indicators such as the Australian labor market and consumer incomes remain weak.
So, the unemployment rate in Australia is 5.6% (in March this level was 5.5%), and the growth rate of salaries in Australia remain near record lows. Thus, the growth of wages in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 amounted to + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate.
Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.
On Tuesday (01:30 GMT), the RBA takes a decision on the rate, which since mid-2016 is at a record low level of 1.5%. Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise.
Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.
It is likely that on Tuesday the rate will remain at the same level of 1.5%.
"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term," - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7300
Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7700, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7300
Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7750, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

Congratulations to the IB Challenge winners

TIFIA is happy to congratulate the winners and participants of the IB Challenge contest.

Here is the list of our three winners.
https://tifia.com/company/company-news/id/1123

The full rating of the contest is available here:
https://tifia.com/en/contests/regional/ib-contest

Sincerely yours,
Tifia Markets Limited

[TifiaFX]

Opening of Tifia's office in China

Tifia: international company with offices all across the globe The Tifia group is proud to inform its clients of its business expansion and opening of a new office in the city of Yiwu, China.At the end of the last week, Tifia's representatives opened an office in Yiwu, China. The new office will provide Tifia's clients working and living in China easier communication with the Company: from now on you can contact our local office or come in person whenever you want.


The office is open on working days.Working hours:9:00 – 17:30, Monday to Friday
Address:No. 877, Chengbei Road, Yiwu City, Block 17F-A, Yuye BuildingPhone number +8613818472902
WeChat
https://tifia.com/cn
Join the community of successful traders and investors - now in China!

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: The British economy is recovering
05/06/2018

Current dynamics
Published at the beginning of today's European session, positive macro data on the UK services sector, supported the pound. According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector increased to 54.0 in May from 52.8 in April (the forecast was 53.0), reaching the highest level in three months. The values of the index above 50 indicate an increase in activity.
Activity in the services sector in the UK increased in May, which was another signal for the country's economic recovery after weakening at the beginning of the year. On Friday, a similar report was submitted for the UK manufacturing sector, which also indicated an acceleration of activity in May. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector. As this sector forms a significant part of the final indicator of the UK GDP, the PMI production index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the British economy. The figure above the 50 mark is a positive (or bullish) factor for GBP. The production PMI came out on Friday with the value for May 54.4 (the forecast was 53.5, and 53.9 in April). The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.
The services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy form the bulk of the UK GDP. Growth in these sectors indicates a positive trend and the restoration of the British economy, despite the continuing uncertainty of Brexit. There is less than a year left before the end of Brexit.
Many economists believe that signs of recovery in the second quarter may increase the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England in the coming months, perhaps even in August.
So, one of the nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Silvano Tenreiro, said last Monday that it expects "several" increases in the cost of borrowing by mid-2012, although the exact terms for each of them is "an open question".
The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors will monitor the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.
The next important data on inflation, which may affect the determination of the Bank of England to raise the rate in the coming months, will come later this week.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3337, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3395. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050
Buy Stop 1.3395. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3970



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: this year the ECB can curtail the large-scale program QE
06/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to the chief economist of the ECB, Peter Pret, the ECB is close to achieving the conditions under which it is possible to complete the program of buying bonds. According to Pret, the Eurozone labor market is strengthening. The unemployment rate is declining, and this accelerates the growth of wages, which is becoming a key condition for stronger inflation, the target level of which is just below 2%.
Now, as part of the quantitative easing program, the central bank buys assets at 30 billion euros a month and will continue to purchase at least until September.
Since the beginning of the current week, the Euro has been growing on the information that at a meeting on June 12 the ECB may discuss an exit from the quantitative easing program.
At the end of last week, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Sabine Lautenschlager, said that the ECB could decide at the June meeting to close the asset purchase program later this year.
Peter Pret signaled on Wednesday that the central bank's leaders are increasingly confident in the return of inflation in the Eurozone to the target level amidst the strength of the economy and the growth of salaries. This means that this year the bank can curtail a large-scale asset purchase program.
Nevertheless, more conservative investors believe that the growth of the euro will be limited, even if at a meeting on June 12 the ECB will signal the completion of the QE program. As ECB President Mario Draghi previously said, interest rates will remain near zero for a long time, even if the quantitative easing program is curtailed.
And it is this issue that will be decisive in determining the direction of the further movement of the euro and the EUR / USD.
Later on Wednesday, the attention of market participants will switch to publication (at 12:30 GMT) of important macro statistics from the US, including data on the foreign trade balance for April. In the last month, the US trade deficit narrowed from -57.6 billion dollars to -49 billion dollars. If the data again indicates the growth of the deficit, the dollar may fall. In any case, at the time of publication of macro data, volatility in currency pairs with the dollar, including in the EUR / USD, can significantly increase.
Before the meetings of the ECB and the Fed next week, investors will attach great importance to macro data.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.1755, 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520
Resistance levels: 1.1790, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.1730. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520
Buy Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1730. Take-Profit 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: the uptrend remains in force
07/06/2018

Current dynamics
At the end of last week, as expected, the Bank of Canada did not begin to change the interest rate, leaving it at 1.25%. As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier last month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations". The uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA negatively affects the quotes of the Canadian currency.
In addition, since June 1, US import duties on steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively), including those supplied from Canada, have come into effect.
Last Thursday, Canadian Prime Minister Jasin Trudeau announced a response to the United States duties. The total value of imports from the US, which will be subject to new duties, is 16.6 billion Canadian dollars (12.8 billion US dollars). This corresponds to the value of Canada's exports to the US for 2017. This is the strongest response measures that the country has decided to apply since the Second World War.
Weaker oil prices also put pressure on CAD. The Canadian economy largely depends on the export of raw materials, primarily oil and oil products. The largest partner of Canada and the buyer of Canadian oil are the United States.
On Thursday (15:15 GMT), the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin. He will explain the bank's position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of Stephen Poloz's speech is tough with respect to the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market. If Stephen Poloz expresses his support for maintaining soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. In any case, during the speech of Stephen Poloz high volatility in trading on the Canadian dollar is expected.
Investors also want to hear the opinion of Poloz about NAFTA's prospects and regarding Canada's counter measures after the introduction of US import duties on steel and aluminum.
Also, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar could be affected by the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data on the Canadian labor market for May.
Unemployment in April was 5.8%. In the case of rising unemployment and a decrease in the number of employed, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. However, the impact of this publication on the dynamics of USD / CAD will be short-term, and the upward trend of the pair USD / CAD in the current situation is likely to continue.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2900, 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2975. Take-Profit 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.2975. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: the focus of traders - meeting G7
08/06/2018

Current dynamics
The focus of traders at the end of the week is the G7 meeting. Leaders of the G-7 countries are due to meet in Québec on Friday for a two-day meeting, during which the issues of trade relations will be discussed after the introduction of the US import duties on steel and aluminum.
As is known, since June 1, import duties on steel and aluminum imported from the EU, Canada, and Mexico have started to operate in the United States. Steel and aluminum from other countries are subject to import duty (25% and 10%, respectively) as early as March.
At the end of May, G7 finance ministers held a meeting in Canada, following which a public protest was issued against the introduction of new import duties on steel and aluminum. The European Union is ready to introduce counter restrictions of € 6.4 billion, Canada - $ 12.8 billion. Nevertheless, the White House insists on continuing pressure on trading partners. "When the foreign trade deficit is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his Twitter page on Saturday. "The US has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to start thinking", he added.
French President Macron said on Thursday that due to the recently announced US steel and aluminum duties against the EU and Canada, the remaining six members of the G-7 will have to unite in their own strength. Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said that he will remain faithful to the interests of Canadian citizens, even if this entails contradictions between neighbors. To this Trump replied on Twitter: "Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging huge fees and imposing non-tariff restrictions on the United States".
Many investors believe that the tension in trade issues will increase the restless situation in the stock markets.
The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2,915% today from 2,933%. The demand for asylum assets - yen, franc, gold - is again growing.
World stock markets on Friday are falling amid growing tension in trade on the eve of an important G7 summit.
It is likely that up to the end of today's trading day, stock indices in Europe and the US will remain under pressure.
Nevertheless, the bullish trend of the US stock market so far remains in force.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2745.0, 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2785.0. Objectives 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0
Buy Stop 2785.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: activity of traders is low before important events
13/06/2018
Current dynamics
After Tuesday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, and also in anticipation of the outcome of the meetings of the central banks of the US and the Eurozone, the world stock indices retain a restrained-positive dynamic.
It is widely expected that today the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% -2%. The probability of such an increase is estimated by investors at 94%. This scenario is already included in the prices. Investors will be concerned with the question of how many more increases the Fed can make before the end of the year - one or two. The decision on the rates of the Fed will be published at 18:00 (GMT), and at 18:30 a press conference will begin at which the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will explain the decision taken by the Fed, and also express the opinion of the FRS leadership on the prospects for economic growth in the US.
Published on Tuesday, the data again pointed to the steady strengthening of inflation in the US, which should convince the Fed to further gradually increase interest rates. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Thus, last month the annual price increase was the strongest since February 2012.
The labor market in the US remains stable, and unemployment reached 3.8% in May, the lowest level since 1969. The last time the unemployment rate was 3.8% was recorded in April 2000. The average hourly earnings in the US in May rose by 0.3% (against the forecast of + 0.2% and + 0.1% in April) and by 2.7% (in annual terms).
The US economy continues to grow more confident than others, the macroeconomic situation in the US remains favorable, indicating that it is possible to raise rates after today's meeting more than once.
Market participants will closely follow Powell's speech to catch signals about the Fed's tougher position on monetary policy. If Powell unequivocally signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar can become sharply stronger. But the stock indices can again turn to the "south".
Investors also do not forget about the risks and threats that have emerged against the backdrop of escalating trade contradictions between the US and major trade and economic partners, such as China, the EU, Canada.
Thus, the monetary policy of central banks, as well as the threat of escalation of trade wars, will be the main driver in the financial markets in the short term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 25240.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0
Resistance levels: 25425.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 25430.0. Stop-Loss 25200.0. Take-Profit 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 25200.0. Stop-Loss 25430.0. Take-Profit 25000.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: rate hike could happen in August
14/06/2018

Current dynamics
Published on Wednesday, disappointing inflation data contributed to the weakening of the pound and the fall of the GBP / USD. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, as in April.
The published data indicate that inflationary pressure in the UK remains, despite the restrained growth of wages. The leadership of the Bank of England, headed by Mark Carney, has repeatedly signaled that it expects two or three increases in borrowing costs in the UK over the next two years in order to bring inflation back to a 2% target.
The inflation report released on Wednesday may strengthen expectations for another small increase in borrowing costs, as the data signals that inflationary pressures are on the rise. Growth in company sales prices accelerated in May for the first time in six months. The producer price index rose by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, after rising by 2.5% in April.
On Thursday, strong retail sales data was released, which pushed the pound up.
Compared to May of the previous year, retail sales in May grew by 3.9%. Compared to the previous month, sales increased by 1.3%, although they were projected to increase by only 0.3%. In April, retail sales grew by 1.6%.
On published data and after yesterday's decision of the Fed to raise rates the GBP / USD rose by 70 points from the opening of the trading day.
The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors are watching the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.
Economists expect that the next rate increase may occur in August.
In anticipation of this decision of the Bank of England, the pound may continue to strengthen, including in the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3000
Resistance levels: 1.3490, 1.3560, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3980, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3000
Buy Stop 1.3450. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3560, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3980



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for gold will be supported as for an asset-shelter
15/06/2018
Current dynamics
Despite the decision of the Fed to raise the rate and a statement of intent to further tighten monetary policy in the US, gold prices on Thursday reached the highest level for the month near the mark of 1309.00 dollars per ounce.
Investors once again remembered geopolitical tensions and the threat of a large-scale world trade war.
President of the United States Donald Trump approved the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China worth about 50 billion dollars.
On Thursday, high-ranking representatives of the White House, officials responsible for state security, representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the US Department of Commerce held a 90-minute meeting. On Friday, the US Trade Mission intends to make public the list of goods for which duties will be distributed.
Trump does not intend to back away from taking the course to support local producers and pursuing a protectionist policy towards American goods abroad.
As you know, from June 1, the US began to apply import duties on steel and aluminum from China, the EU, and Canada. Other countries, suppliers of these goods to the United States, were sanctioned in March.
June gold futures on COMEX closed on Thursday with an increase of 0.6%, at USD 1304.00 per troy ounce, which is the maximum closing level since May 14.
US President Donald Trump's administration announced plans to introduce import duties on Chinese goods worth tens of billions of dollars in the next few days, which led traders to prepare for a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
As you know, in the context of an increase in the interest rate, the price of gold is falling, because it is more difficult for him to compete with other objects for long-term investments that generate revenue, such as, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing.
In periods of aggravation of the geopolitical situation or international trade contradictions, the "swing" moves in the opposite direction and the demand for gold rises again, as investors see it as an safe-asset.
Nevertheless, despite the growth, prices in the future will face resistance of sellers of gold in favor of the dollar against the background of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.
Only weak macro data from the United States, as well as an even greater strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the world, can push gold quotes higher. So far, negative dynamics prevails.
Level 1303.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is still a strong resistance for the XAU / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1299.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1308.00, 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1309.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1283.00, 1277.00, 1270.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1309.00. Stop-Loss 1298.00. Take-Profit 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: amid escalation of trade contradictions
18/06/2018

Current dynamics
As you know, President Donald Trump on Friday approved a 25% import duty on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion. After that, representatives of the Chinese authorities said that they would introduce reciprocal tariffs of the same scale on American goods.
World stock markets and commodity currencies are declining at the beginning of a new week. The aggravation of trade disagreements between the US and China negatively affects the demand of investors for risky assets.
Prices for raw materials also fall in the face of aggravation of trade contradictions, which leads to a decrease in the quotations of commodity currencies relative to the dollar.
The situation can lead to a trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner. Negative information on the Chinese economy leads, as a rule, to a decrease in the quotations of the Australian dollar.
China is also the largest buyer of primary commodities in Australia, primarily iron ore, so necessary for China's industrial potential.
Concerns about the fate of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the fees that the Trump administration imposed on the European allies also increase concerns in the markets.
In this situation, the demand for the US dollar, which plays the role of refuge in this situation, is growing.
Also, the decision of last week's Fed meeting contributed to the growth of the dollar, following which the Fed raised the target range of interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% - 2.00% on Wednesday, and also signaled the possible acceleration of the rate of monetary tightening policy this year to maintain a sustainable recovery of the country's economy.
On Tuesday (01:30 GMT) the protocol from the recent meeting of the RBA, at which the bank kept the current monetary policy at the same level, will be published.
Also at the same time (01:30 GMT) on Tuesday housing price indices in Australia (for 1 quarter) will be published. The RBA is positively considering the slowdown in housing prices.
At the same time, market participants believe that the RBA will not raise interest rates until mid-2019. Salaries continue to grow slowly, and households' debt has risen to a record high, which also includes raising interest rates to a more distant future.
According to the head of the RBA Philip Lowe, "there are no serious arguments in favor of tightening monetary policy in the short term". In his opinion, "before the rate increases, some time will pass".
In any case, on Tuesday, at the time of the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting and the Australian housing price index, volatility in the Australian currency trading is expected to grow.
At the same time, the different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the RBA remains the main argument in favor of further weakening of the AUD / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155
Resistance level: 0.7500, 0.7575, 0.7680, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7270, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7510. Stop-Loss 0.7460. Take-Profit 0.7575, 0.7680



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: indexes fall amid the escalation of the trade conflict
19/06/2018
Current dynamics
After last week, Washington imposed import duties on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion, Beijing immediately threatened with retaliation for particularly significant US exports, such as oil, agricultural products and cars.
In both cases, import duties in the United States and China come into force on July 6. Markets responded quite cautiously to this step from Washington. On Monday President of the United States Donald Trump appealed to the administration with the task to make a list of Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion, for which duties will be imposed, thus increasing pressure on China.
Trump blames China for violating intellectual property rights and stealing technology. The White House clarified that the new fees will be levied if China does not change its position or will itself announce new tariffs for American goods. By such actions, Trump tries to create the most favorable conditions for the American economy, limiting the import of goods from China.
China reacted almost instantly. "If the US side completely loses its mind and publishes a new list, the Chinese side will be forced to take comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and give a decisive response", the Chinese trade department said in a statement.
Thus, the trade conflict between the US and China comes to a new level. This time the world stock markets have painfully reacted to the possible escalation of the conflict.
This next round in the aggravation of the situation may be a harbinger of a trade war between the two largest economies of the world.
News about the new trade disagreements between the US and China at the beginning of the trading day on Tuesday exerted strong pressure on European and world stock indices.
Shanghai Composite fell by 3.8% to a minimum in almost two years. Stoxx Europe 600 at the auction in the morning sank by 1.1%. Futures on the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indicate a loss of 1.3% and 1.6% respectively at the opening of trading.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0
Resistance levels: 24840.0, 25240.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 24860.0. Stop-Loss 24550.0. Take-Profit 25240.0, 25400.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24550.0. Stop-Loss 24860.0. Take-Profit 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

WTI: There is expected to reduce inventories in the US oil storage reservoirs
20/06/2018

Current dynamics
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories fell by 3.016 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks increased by 757,000 barrels. Nevertheless, this did not prevent the growth of oil prices on Wednesday. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.48% to $ 75.44 per barrel. The spot price for WTI oil at the beginning of the European session was close to $ 65.50 per barrel, which is about $ 0.6 higher than the opening price of the trading day.
The US Energy Information Administration's report on oil and petroleum products in the country's storage facilities will be released on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT, and investors will closely follow this publication.
As expected, commercial oil and oil products in the country's warehouses fell by 1.898 million barrels in the week of June 9-15.
This is positive information that can support oil price quotes.
Nevertheless, the main focus of the oil market participants will be focused on the OPEC meeting, which, as expected, can make important statements regarding the mitigation of the oil production reduction program. The OPEC meeting will begin on Thursday and will last until the end of the trading week.
Last month, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to soften the terms of the OPEC+ agreement and increase oil production. The OPEC+ agreement on production reduction came into force in January 2017, and since then oil prices have risen by about 35%. The agreement expires at the end of 2018.
OPEC member Saudi Arabia and the non-cartel Russia insisted on increasing production. Iran's oil minister does not expect that this week the OPEC countries will agree on an increase in production. On Tuesday, he said that Tehran is against any increase.
If the member countries of the agreement do not agree on an increase in oil production, then oil prices will start to rise again. With the reverse scenario and an increase in production (expected to be 1 million barrels per day) prices could fall by about $ 15 per barrel.
Last Friday, a weekly report was released from the American oil service company Baker Hughes, according to which the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again by 1 unit and currently stands at 863 units (against 862, 861, 859 and 844 in the past weeks). The growth of this indicator is another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.
Simultaneous growth in oil production in OPEC and the US can break the bullish trend of oil. This is especially true in the unfolding trade war between the US and China.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 63.70, 62.00, 61.00
Resistance levels: 65.50, 67.00, 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 64.80. Stop-Loss 65.90. Take-Profit 64.00, 63.00, 62.00, 61.00
Buy Stop 65.90. Stop-Loss 64.80. Take-Profit 67.00, 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com