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  #201  
Old 22-02-2018, 12:23
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USD/CAD: much depends on the dynamics of the US dollar
22/02/2018
Current dynamics

At the beginning of today's trading day, the dollar continued to rise after on Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the minutes from the January meeting of the Fed were published. From the text of the protocols, investors learned that the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US. At the December meeting, when the rate was raised for the third time in 2017, it became known about the Fed's intentions to raise the rate three times in 2018 and make two more increases in 2019.
During the January meeting, the US Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the key interest rate range of 1.25% -1.5% unchanged, but market participants expect that in March, when the first rate hike is expected to take place this year, the leaders of the Fed will add another increase in rates to the three planned.
And if this really happens, then the dollar will receive a strong support, despite the fact that there are a number of negative factors of a fundamental nature that cause investors to be wary of the dollar.
Among these negative factors - the growth of the federal budget deficit and the deficit of the foreign trade balance, which in December amounted to a record $ 566 billion, the highest level since 2008.
Meanwhile, at the beginning of the European trading session, the US dollar is once again declining.
To resume the growth of the dollar, additional signals from the Federal Reserve and macro statistics are needed. Important news from US is not expected until the end of the week, but it should pay attention to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of such an important inflation and macro statistical indicator as the level of retail sales in Canada. According to the forecast, in December retail sales in Canada are expected to grow by 0.2% after growing by 0.2% in November. The index of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence. At the same time, retail trade is one of the most important components in filling the country's budget and GDP growth. A weak or negative value of this indicator is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar. If the value of the indicator is worse than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will decrease, including in the pair USD / CAD. And, conversely, an indicator exceeding the forecast value will help strengthen the Canadian dollar.
Also worth paying attention to the speeches of a number of representatives of the Fed, scheduled for 15:00, 17:10, 20:30 (GMT), which may have a short-term effect on the dynamics of the US dollar, and may for a short time cause a rise in volatility in US dollar trading .
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2655, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2720. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #202  
Old 26-02-2018, 12:10
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S&P500: markets continue to recover
26/02/2018
Current dynamics

Last week, the main US stock indexes completed in positive territory. The main increase of the indices in the previous week was due to strong growth on Friday. While indices are growing, investors are still in a state of confusion after the recent stock market crash observed earlier this month. Market participants are trying to understand - what is happening in the market: the markets resumed growth to new record highs or it is a temporary rebound before a new jerk down.
The recent collapse in the stock markets was triggered, mainly, by increased inflation in the US, which could lead to more active actions of the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy. Against the backdrop of stable economic growth in the US and because of increased inflation, the Fed will be forced to raise rates at a faster pace in order to avoid overheating of the economy.
And this is a strong negative factor for the stock markets, which usually grow against the backdrop of soft monetary policy and fall, if the rates have started to rise. Much also depends on the speed and scale of tightening monetary policy.
In this regard, it is worth recalling the words of the former head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, that only raising rates is not enough to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, and a gradual increase in the rate indicates the strength of the American economy.
Now market participants will wait for the first speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, before the congress, which will be held on Tuesday (13:30 GMT). Investors want to hear from Powell, what is the probability that this year rates will be raised more than 3 times.
At the same time, many investors believe that during his first speech with a report on the results of the first half of the year, the new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will point to a good form of the US economy, however, he will not say anything new about the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed. It is likely that Powell will try to emphasize the need for a gradual increase in the rates of the Fed, avoiding any hint of the possibility of a faster rate hike.
If Powell only hints at the possibility of raising rates more than 3 times this year, then the reaction of the markets can follow immediately: the dollar will jump in price, and the stock indexes will again fall down.
Meanwhile, the S&P500 index is trading higher for the third day in a row, adding to the price from the opening of today's trading day.
After the strongest collapse in early February, from February 9 futures on the S&P500 steadily adds to the price, gradually restoring positions, and at the beginning of today's European session S&p500 is trading near the mark of 2760.0. The index finished in positive territory 8 of the last 11 sessions since February 9 began recovery after the fall. Over the past two weeks, the S & P500 has gained about 5.0%, which was the strongest two-week increase since February 2015.
The S & P500 grew almost fourfold from the 2009 low, and the yield of 10-year US government bonds in 2016 dropped to 1.336% from a level above 4% recorded in 2008. Now, another increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds above 3% may provoke another decline of not only the S & P500 index, but the entire US stock market, followed by other global stock markets.
From the news for today, which can cause the growth of volatility in the financial markets, we are waiting for the speech (at 13:00 GMT) of the member of the FRS Committee on Open Markets, James Bullard and ECB President Mario Draghi (at 14:00 GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2725.0, 2682.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2688.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2565.0, 2530.0
Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #203  
Old 26-02-2018, 13:52
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  #204  
Old 27-02-2018, 11:43
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XAU/USD: Positive dynamics, on the whole, persists
27/02/2018
Current dynamics

While market participants are waiting for the beginning of the speech of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who speaks for the first time before the Congress, trading activity in the financial markets remains low. Nevertheless, in the first half of the European session, the dollar is gradually turning into an offensive.
During the December Fed meeting, when the interest rate was again raised, the leaders of the US central bank announced the need for 3 interest rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019 to avoid overheating of the economy. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy. Judging by the minutes published last week from the January meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve decided that the economy will grow at a faster pace.
The expected strong increase in budget spending in the US, as well as the stimulation of the economy by lowering taxes on the activities of US corporations against a background of low unemployment, will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.
The first rate increase under the new chairman Jerome Powell this year is likely to happen already at the March meeting of the Fed, and now market participants expect that in March, the leaders of the Fed will add another rate hike to the three planned this year.
And it is precisely such signals that market participants will wait for today and tomorrow from Powell. From him, investors want to hear what the probability of a more rapid increase in interest rates.
If Powell signals to market participants that there is a high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, then the dollar quotations will rise and another US stock market collapse may occur.
As a rule, with an increase in the interest rate, the quotes of the national currency are growing. So far, there is an opposite picture - the dollar is under pressure. The growth of the federal budget deficit, the growing deficit of the foreign trade balance, which reached an impressive amount of 566 billion dollars in December, the highest level since 2008, causes a negative attitude of investors towards the dollar.
Neither the Fed's efforts to tighten monetary policy, nor verbal intervention by representatives of the Federal Reserve and the White House on the desirability of a strong dollar, do not yet cause a response from buyers of the dollar.
So yesterday's statement by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "in the long term the United States needs a strong dollar" did not affect the dynamics of the dollar.
Now all the attention of investors today and tomorrow will be focused on the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell. On how tough his speeches will be, the dynamics of the dollar for the near future will depend.
During periods of increasing interest rates, gold usually becomes cheaper, giving way to assets that generate revenue, such as government bonds.
Meanwhile, the price of gold keeps positive dynamics. Many economists believe that, despite the expected increase in interest rates, gold still has good chances for growth as a means of protecting against the growth of consumer inflation.
The likelihood of further growth in gold prices outweighs the likelihood of their decline. The long-term targets for the growth of the gold price will be the mark of 1390.00, 1425.00 dollars per troy ounce. However, these goals can be set only after the price of gold overcomes the mark of $ 1365.00 per troy ounce (the maximum of this year).
Recall that the speech of Jerome Powell will start today at 13:30 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1332.00, 1329.00, 1308.00, 1290.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1328.00. Stop-Loss 1342.00. Take-Profit 1308.00, 1290.00
Buy Stop 1342.00. Stop-loss 1328.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00




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  #205  
Old 28-02-2018, 11:46
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EUR/USD: The euro is under pressure before the weekend
28/02/2018
Current dynamics

As reported on Wednesday (10:00 GMT) by the European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), consumer prices in the Eurozone in February rose by 1.2% (in annual terms). The data suggest that inflation growth rates were the weakest since December 2016 and well below the ECB target level (just below 2%). In February, the rate of inflation slowed for the third month in a row. This index is a key indicator for the ECB in assessing inflation. The current value of the index indicates that the leaders of the ECB will continue to be cautious when considering the issue of reducing the stimulation of the European economy.
As ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, it is too early to talk about curtailing the quantitative easing program, since inflation is still far from the target level.
At the same time, the Eurozone economy continues to grow at a good pace (it is expected that GDP growth in 2017 was 2.5%). In 2017, the economy of the Eurozone grew at the fastest pace over the past 10 years, and, apparently, will keep momentum this year.
Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB will continue its course on monetary policy without any changes. At a recent meeting of the ECB in 2017, it was decided that the program for the purchase of European assets will continue, at least until September 2018. At the same time, ECB interest rates will remain at the same low level for a long time after the end of the QE program.
Meanwhile, optimistic statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the US economy, made by him on Tuesday, supported the dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the basket of 6 other currencies, reached the highest level since early February, rising to around 90.40, completely closing the decline for the last two weeks.
Jerome Powell drew attention to improving economic prospects, which was considered by investors as an indication that this year the central bank can raise interest rates 4 times. Investors have corrected the forecasts for interest rates. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.
The EUR / USD fell 350 points from the peaks in February to a minimum in seven weeks near the 1.2200 mark.
The euro remains under pressure also because of investors' preoccupation before the elections in Italy and voting in the Social Democratic Party of Germany on the establishment of the ruling coalition this weekend.
Today, market participants will closely monitor the macro data that will be published today in the US (13:30 GMT).
Among the published data - annual GDP (for the 4th quarter), the index of expenditure on personal consumption and the price index of personal consumption expenditure. The growth of indicators is expected. Thus, GDP in Q4 is expected to grow by 2.5%, and for the entire 2017 GDP growth was also + 2.5%, which is higher than the average of 2% observed in the early 2000s.
When confirming the data, the dollar is likely to continue to strengthen, including in the EUR / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After in the middle of this month the EUR / USD has reached the next multi-month maximum near the mark of 1.2555, the last two weeks there has been a decline in EUR / USD.
As a result of yesterday's decline against the background of the strengthening of the dollar after the statements of Jerome Powell, EUR / USD broke through the support level 1.2280 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and at the beginning of today's European session is trading near support level 1.2200 (low in February, lower mid-January consolidation zone, EMA50 on day chart and the Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
This is a strong level of support, the breakdown of which will significantly worsen prospects for the bullish trend EUR / USD.
Long-term upward dynamics persists as long as EUR / USD is trading above the key support levels 1.1790 (Fibonacci 38.2% and EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be a return to the zone above the resistance level 1.2280. In this case, EUR / USD will again move towards the recent highs near the level of 1.2555.
Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700
Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2180. Stop-Loss 1.2220. Take-Profit 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1700
Buy Stop 1.2220. Stop-Loss 1.2180. Take-Profit 1.2285, 1.2330, 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2600



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #206  
Old 01-03-2018, 11:42
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GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable
01/03/2018
Current dynamics

The pound on Thursday slightly strengthened after the publication (at 09:30 GMT) of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January. As shown by the data provided by the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in January reached a six-month high after a fall in December (67,478 versus 61,692 in December). The January figure was the highest since July 2017 and significantly exceeded the average for six months.
The index of business activity of purchasing managers (PMI) in the manufacturing sector for February was 55.2 versus 55.3 in January (the forecast was 50.0).
The pound received little support after the publication of the data, but, economists believe, for a short while. On Wednesday, the pound declined significantly in the foreign exchange market after some details of the draft agreement on the exit of the UK from the EU became known, according to which, in particular, the creation of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is envisaged.
Thus, the dynamics of the pound in the coming months will strongly depend on news about Brexit. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in June 2016 did not happen, however, the pound fell sharply, which contributed to a significant acceleration of inflation in the UK. In this regard, the income of the British and their purchasing power declined, which affected domestic trade and retail sales. Since, the British economy is focused, first of all, on the domestic market; the decrease in domestic trade has a negative impact on the country's GDP.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound. At the same time, the pound will remain vulnerable against the euro and the dollar against the backdrop of Brexit.
The dollar, on the other hand, receives strong support both from the growing expectations for a faster rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed, as well as from strong macro data coming from the US recently.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data on the US (from 13:30 to 15:00 GMT), as well as the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell in the banking committee of the Senate (at 15:00 GMT). If he more specifically signals about the high probability of 4 interest rate increases this year, the dollar will receive an additional impetus for growth, including in the GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3725, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 1.3810. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3390, 1.3210
Buy Stop 1.3810. Stop-Loss 1.3690. Take-Profit 1.3890, 1.3970, 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4185, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #207  
Old 02-03-2018, 11:03
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S&P500: indexes continue to decline
02/03/2018
Current dynamics

Major US stock indexes continue to decline, receiving a negative impulse at the beginning of the week from the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.
As you know, during his first official speech before Congress on Tuesday, Powell drew a very positive picture of the state of the American economy, confirming the Fed's intention to gradually tighten monetary policy.
"Economic prospects remain strong. A further gradual increase in the rate of federal funds will best contribute to the achievement of the goals of the Fed", in his opinion.
Jerome Powell said that the Fed "will continue to seek a balance between avoiding overheating of the economy" and the achievement of annual inflation of 2%. Many investors considered Powell's speech as a signal to the Fed intending to hold 3 interest rate increases planned at the December meeting. Some market participants felt that the Fed could implement even 4 increases instead of the previously planned 3 increases. According to CME, the probability of 4 rate increases this year is estimated by investors at 34%. On Monday, this probability was 24%, and a month ago - 23%.
The tightening of monetary policy negatively affects the dynamics of the stock markets, since it leads to an increase in the cost of borrowing. Investors in this case prefer the dollar as a more reliable form of investment in comparison with highly risky assets.
On Friday, the major US stock indexes are down for the fourth consecutive day.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump, who announced that next week he will approve the plan to introduce new import duties on steel and aluminum by 25% and 10%, respectively, contributed to this decline. Market participants are afraid of accelerating inflation and slowing the growth of US GDP due to new import tariffs. From China and Europe, statements from the authorities have already followed that they will take counter measures to protect their interests.
Since the beginning of the week, the DJIA dropped 3.3% to 24510.0 points, the S & P500 fell 3.1% to 2670.0 points. Thus, DJIA for 2018 decreased by 0.4% and the S & P500 - by 0.2%, again moving into the correction zone. European stock markets also fell. STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.3%, German DAX fell 2.0%, and the British FTSE and French CAC fell 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.
World trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.802% from 2.870% on Wednesday, showing the most significant drop since September and indicating that investors are buying safer assets.
Today, important news on the US is not expected. It is likely that the stock indexes, including the S & P500, will finish today's trading session in negative territory. While the S & P500 is below the short-term resistance level of 2725.0 (200-period moving average on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), it is necessary to consider only short positions with objectives at support levels 2630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth from February 2016 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 2580.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2580.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 2686.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2614.0, 2585.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2686.0. Stop-Loss 2665.0. Objectives 2725.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #208  
Old 05-03-2018, 12:09
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AUD/USD: there is no reason to change the current RBA monetary policy
05/03/2018
Current dynamics

On Tuesday, when the next meeting is held, the RB of Australia is likely to maintain the current level of the interest rate unchanged (1.5%).
After the previous meeting of the RBA (February 6), a number of macro statistical indicators worsened: inflation expectations and consumer sentiment deteriorated, and the level of retail sales decreased, the labor market deteriorated, and the trade balance deficit doubled.
In a recent speech to Parliament, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowey said that he "would prefer a lower exchange rate". In his opinion, "there is no reason to raise rates in the short term". Lowey noted that "inflation remains low," although "business sentiment is improving".
The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% for the RBA since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019.
The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts the retention of slow inflation and the inability to achieve full employment over the next few years.
According to Philip Lowey, "the strength of the Australian dollar reflects the weakness of the US dollar". The Australian dollar remains largely a commodity currency, and an increase in world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, contributes to the growth of the Australian dollar.
The reasons for changing the current monetary policy in the RBA do not see. The RBA's decision on the interest rate, in practice, will not have a noticeable effect on the Australian dollar. But data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) will be published on Thursday (00:30 GMT) may have a much greater impact on the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and buyer of its primary commodities (primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, and agricultural products). The decline in Australian imports to China could have the most negative impact on the Australian dollar.
This week, investors will also follow the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market (for February). The publication, as expected, of strong values will strengthen the position of the US dollar and give the Fed an extra trump card in the execution of the planned plan to further tighten monetary policy in the US. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT) of indicators of business activity in the US services sector for February. Despite the expected slight decrease, the indices remain well above the 50 mark, which is a positive factor for the USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7730. Stop-Loss 0.7775. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7620, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7775. Stop-Loss 0.7730. Take-Profit 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #209  
Old 06-03-2018, 11:50
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NZD/USD: before publishing data from the dairy auction
06/03/2018
Current dynamics

Investors are still assessing the possible long-term impact on international trade relations from the recent decision of the White House to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. "America is first of all". The US, as usual, does not particularly consider the interests of their closest trading partners when it comes to the interests of the US itself. "When a country (the USA) loses many billions of dollars in trade with almost all the countries with which it conducts business, trade wars are good, and they are easy to win", Trump wrote on Twitter, making it clear that these are normal methods of the US administration .
For American companies, primarily working in these sectors of the economy, this may be good, but for the nearest US trading partners - not very much. The European Commission and China announced the possibility of applying retaliatory measures.
If the US stock indices appear to have positively perceived the information on the protection of the domestic market through the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum,
the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, strengthening against commodity currencies, and declining against the yen and European currencies. The second day the futures for the DXY index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 other currencies, are trading near the 89.90 mark.
At the beginning of today's European session, the dollar is growing against Canadian and Australian dollars, but is down against the New Zealand dollar.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the next dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. If the prices for dairy products rise again, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen, including in the pair NZD / USD. The decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
Also worth paying attention to the publication on Thursday (02:00 GMT) of data on China's foreign trade balance (in February) which may have a significant impact on the New Zealand dollar and cause volatility in the NZD / USD pair, as China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and the buyer of agricultural products of the country.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7258, 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080, 0.6900, 0.6865
Buy Stop 0.7280. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7300, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



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  #210  
Old 07-03-2018, 11:52
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S&P500: investors are concerned about the possibility of commencement of trade wars
07/03/2018
Current dynamics

More recently (at the end of last week), participants in the global financial market were concerned about the US decision to impose import duties on steel and aluminum. Today, this story was developed after it became known about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump Gary Cohn, who opposed the introduction of new duties. His resignation upset the market participants, pointing out that Trump intends to pursue a tougher policy with regard to trading partners, and can unleash a large-scale trade war.
On this news, the currencies of those countries that actively trade with the US, including the Mexican peso and commodity currencies - the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar - fell sharply.
Also, the main US stock indexes fell, and asylum assets rose in price because of fears about US policy. The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 2.863% from 2.877%, while the yen rose 0.4% against the dollar during the Asian trading session.
Representatives of the world's largest economies are extremely negative about the intentions of the White House to introduce import duties.
Thus, the Minister of Economy of Germany, Brigitte Tsipris, said today that "in the event of a worsening situation, the EU is ready to respond appropriately, but our goal is to avoid a trade conflict". "Trade brings prosperity when it is based on exchange and interaction", she said. So far, the signals coming from the US are bothering me".
The EU intends to challenge the planned US introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum.
Investors are worried that the main US trading partners will retaliate and this will start the world trade war, which will negatively affect world economic growth. The EU has already announced the preparation of a package of measures worth 3.5 billion US dollars in respect of imports from the United States. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU.
The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Wednesday that it could be "very bad" for the global economy. "If the process grows, it will be very bad. If retaliatory measures are taken, the world economy will suffer a very strong blow", Philip Lowe said.
Meanwhile, the main US stock indexes are at the beginning of the European trading session in the negative territory after they collapsed at the opening of today's trading day after the resignation of Gary Cohn.
Today we expect a busy trading day.
After 13:15 to 13:30 (GMT), a block of important macro data from the US will be published, including the ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy (for February), foreign trade balance (January), inflation indicator of costs per unit labor force and labor productivity outside the agricultural sector for the 4th quarter, at 13:30 the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be published.
The growing uncertainty in trade relations between Canada and the United States will help ensure that the Bank of Canada retains the key interest rate unchanged at 1.25%.
We would like to remind you that volatility in this period will rise sharply, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2672.0, 2630.0, 2590.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2680.0. Stop-Loss 2735.0. Objectives 2670.0, 2630.0, 2600.0, 2590.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2735.0. Stop-Loss 2680.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0




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  #211  
Old 12-03-2018, 12:00
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NZD/USD: Positive dynamics persists
12/03/2018
Current dynamics

Published last week with the results of the dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT), showed a slight decline in world prices for dairy products (-0,6%). The main part of the New Zealand economy is the timber and agricultural complex, and a significant part of the New Zealand export is dairy products, primarily milk powder. Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a slight decrease (-0.5%) against the previous values of + 5.9%, + 4.9%, + 2.2% and +0.4 %. Nevertheless, the New Zealand dollar is the most successful of all other currency-competitors traded against the US dollar in recent days.
Investors continue to assess the impact of the decision of the White House on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum on international trade relations. Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, rose in response to this decision. Economists believe that the decision to impose import duties will positively affect the US economy. At least, the main US stock indexes are growing again, and the NASDAQ100 index updated its absolute maximum on Friday, and on Monday the NASDAQ100 futures are again trading higher, near the 7130.0 mark. Traditionally, it is believed that economic growth is accompanied by an increase in demand for primary commodities. The share of the United States in world GDP is estimated at 16-20%. Accordingly, the growth of the world's largest economy assumes a growing demand for commodities. The current weakening of the US dollar contributes to higher commodity prices, which also positively affects the quotations of commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
Wednesday (21:45 GMT) is expected to publish data on New Zealand's GDP for the 4th quarter (latest release). It is expected that GDP grew by 0.8% in Q4 (against + 0.6% in Q3), implying an annual GDP growth of about 2.5% -3.0%. This is strong enough data. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand currency will strengthen, including in the NZD / USD.
On Tuesday at 21:45 (GMT) data on the balance of payments of New Zealand will be published.
Reducing the current account deficit in the balance of payments of New Zealand (expected to reach $ 2.40 billion from NZ $ 4.68 billion) will support the New Zealand currency. In the absence of important news in the economic calendar, flat and low trading volumes are expected in the foreign exchange market today. However, it is worth paying attention to the speech (at 23:45 GMT) of the deputy head of the RBNZ Grant Spencer. If he touches on the RBNZ monetary policy, then the volatility of the New Zealand dollar trades will go up. Rigid rhetoric of his speech on inflation and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy will cause the New Zealand dollar to grow.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7290. Stop-Loss 0.7330. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7250, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7165
Buy Stop 0.7330. Stop-Loss 0.7290. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550




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  #212  
Old 13-03-2018, 11:29
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USD/CAD: Bank of Canada concerned about talks over NAFTA
13/03/2018
Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of Canada retained its key rate at the previous level of 1.25%, referring to the growing uncertainty of the prospects for negotiations on the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). The USA is Canada's largest trading partner. Protectionist measures on the part of the US cause concern among all US trade partners, including in the leadership of Canada and its central bank. Recent US rhetoric increases the likelihood of a negative outcome of the NAFTA negotiations. As you know, the USA introduced 25% of the duty on the import of steel and 10% of the duty on the import of aluminum to the USA from all countries, except Canada and Mexico, the US partners for NAFTA. Import tariffs come into force 15 days after last Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to impose duties. For Canada and Mexico, there is a 30-day delay. If the participating countries (the USA, Canada, Mexico) manage to agree on new conditions for the extension of NAFTA, steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada and Mexico will not be introduced. Otherwise, Trump promised to leave NAFTA.
The US share in Canada's exports is about 75%, which is 20% of Canada's gross domestic product.
The economy of Canada lost 88,000 jobs in January. In addition, the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, published earlier this month, pointed out that companies' investments could significantly slow down this year.
Last Wednesday, when the meeting was held, the Bank of Canada said that economic prospects are expected to justify higher interest rates over time. However, it is possible that instead of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, some monetary easing will be required. This will become especially important if there are difficulties in the mutual trade relations between Canada and the United States. Any disruptions in trade flows between these two countries can have big consequences for the Canadian economy.
Many investors expect that this year the Fed will raise rates four times, rather than three, as the central bank's leaders planned at a meeting in December. If the Federal Reserve receives signals about the intention to speed up the tightening of the policy, it will support the dollar.
While the Fed plans to further tighten monetary policy, the failure of other major world central banks to normalize monetary policy will help strengthen the US dollar.
Today, investors will pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, which will begin at 14:30 (GMT). The soft rhetoric of his speech on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as the concerns voiced by Poloz about US protectionist actions and the prospects for NAFTA, will further lower the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100



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  #213  
Old 14-03-2018, 11:33
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Brent: the current situation can be described as flat
14/03/2018
Current dynamics

The Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry recently made another forecast, according to which, the production of shale oil in the country in April will increase by 131,000 barrels a day to a record level of 6.95 million barrels per day.
The rapid growth in the production of shale oil in the US reduces OPEC's efforts to stabilize the level of demand and supply of oil and maintain world oil prices. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.
In the opinion of the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the president of OPEC at the present time, "reducing the cartel's production has prevented chaos in the oil market". And this, to a large extent, is true. But the increase in oil prices began, mainly, from June 2017, when OPEC confirmed the extension of the contract to reduce oil production before the end of 2018. Moreover, Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said at a press conference in Riyadh in February that Saudi Arabia is ready to take additional measures in this direction. "We believe that it is better for us to take redundant steps (to reduce supply) and ensure the restoration of the balance of the market", said Khaled Al-Falih.
Meanwhile, in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), disagreements arose over the necessary level of oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is aiming for prices around $ 70 per barrel or higher, while Iran would like prices to be around $ 60 per barrel. According to Iran, prices in the levels of $70 per barrel will provoke oil companies in the US to increase production even more rapidly, which will cause a collapse in prices.
There is a certain share of truth in this. For example, US Deputy Energy Minister Dan Brulett said recently that US oil production this year may show "phenomenal" growth, making oil rally almost impossible.
Participants in the oil market are waiting for OPEC's monthly reports, which will be released this week.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels last week. However, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 4.3 million barrels, which could push up oil prices.
And today the attention of traders will be riveted to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on data on oil reserves in the US, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks in the US increased by 2,023 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, oil quotes may decrease.
Meanwhile, the second week Brent crude oil is trading near the level of 65.00 dollars per barrel. It seems that the oil market lacks drivers for either resuming growth, or for further, deeper, lowering. Thus, the current situation can be described as flat.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 64.80, 64.00, 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50
Resistance levels: 65.40, 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00, 70.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 63.80. Stop-Loss 65.70. Take-Profit 63.00, 61.80, 60.50, 56.50
Buy Stop 65.70. Stop-Loss 63.80. Take-Profit 66.50, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00





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  #214  
Old 15-03-2018, 11:58
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EUR/USD: inflation in the Eurozone is still low to change the parameters of the QE program
15/03/2018
Current dynamics

Speaking on Wednesday at the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi again drew the attention of investors to low inflation in the Eurozone, as well as to the increased risks for the European economy in connection with the prospect of a new trade war with the United States. "Among the risk factors for the outlook for inflation are new US trade measures, the strengthening of the euro. We will adhere to the order that is outlined in our leading indications, namely, our promise to maintain interest rates at current levels for a long time after the completion of net purchases (bonds)", Draghi said.
Thus, on the part of the ECB leadership, the ECB's commitment to a soft monetary policy is again and again being confirmed. Interest rates will not increase "for a long period of time", Draghi said last week, when the ECB's regular meeting on monetary policy was held.
In response to Mario Draghi's declarations, the euro is falling against the dollar, but the deeper decline of the euro is constrained by its growth in crosses against other currencies, primarily commodity ones.
Friday (10:00 GMT) is expected to publish important inflationary indicators for the Eurozone, including labor costs (in the fourth quarter), consumer price indices for February. According to these data, consumer inflation in the Eurozone remains low. It is expected that the consumer price index in February rose by 0.2% (against the decline of -0.9% in January) and by 1.2% in annual terms. However, the publication of these data, despite their importance, will most likely provoke a weak market reaction, since this is a later release, and the data is already included in the prices. Volatility may increase in case of deviation from the forecast values.
Investors are beginning to prepare for a meeting of the Fed, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy.
Until the end of this week, EUR / USD is likely to remain positive, staying in the zone above support levels 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
EUR / USD remains positive dynamics, trading above support levels of 1.2330, 1.2310. Long positions are relevant. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 1.2348 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), EUR / USD will go to the lower border of the range formed between the levels 1.2550 and 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of correction to the EUR / USD drop from 1.3900 in the last wave of decline since May 2014).
The breakdown of support level 1.2200 (50% Fibonacci level) will significantly worsen the outlook for EUR / USD and provoke a decline to support level 1.2100 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, while EUR / USD is trading above support levels 1.1870 (200-period moving average on the daily chart), 1.1790 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), a long-term bullish trend persists.



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  #215  
Old 16-03-2018, 11:32
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DJIA: the index completes the week in a negative territory
16/03/2018
Current dynamics

On Thursday, the US stock index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 24873.00 points. Nevertheless, the DJIA seems to be wrapping up this week and the first half of the month in negative territory. DIJA remains in the bullish long-term trend; however, the positive momentum of further growth is dying out more and more.
Investors continue to assess the impact of the protectionist trade measures of the Donald Trump administration, and also expect additional signals from the Federal Reserve regarding a more rapid increase in interest rates in the United States.
After earlier in March, US President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, representatives of the world's largest economies protested against US protectionist actions. The EU has already prepared a package of countermeasures against American goods. In response, Trump promised to introduce a tax on cars imported from the EU. Now the White House is exploring the possibility of implementing a package of initiatives aimed against China, including duties on the import of certain goods.
However, China is the largest holder of US government bonds and stock assets. If China, in response to the US protectionist actions, begins to massively get rid of them, then this may cause a new wave of sales on the US stock market.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.824% from 2.815% on Wednesday, staying close to the psychologically important level of 3.000%. The increase in bond yields in early 2018 was one of the reasons for the decline in world stock markets. Profitability can grow even more on the background of the normalization of monetary policy and the further strengthening of the world economy. If their profitability exceeds the mark of 3.000%, it will sharply increase the degree of anxiety and lead to another wave of sales of stock assets, according to many economists.
Investors are still cautious after the sharp sales observed in early February.
Now investors are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held next week (March 20-21). It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25%. Market participants will carefully study the text of the Fed's accompanying statement on this decision in order to understand the prospects for monetary policy. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018 and 2 increases in 2019. If the Federal Reserve signals to the Fed's determination to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace, the outlook for the US stock market will deteriorate significantly.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24650.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 25050.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 25070.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24600.0. Stop-Loss 25070.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0




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  #216  
Old 19-03-2018, 11:37
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XAU/USD: The dollar is rising before the Fed meeting
19/03/2018
Current dynamics

While the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, and market participants are preparing for the Fed meeting, which will be held on March 20-21, gold prices are down, today is the fifth week in a row. The growth of the dollar makes gold and other commodities traded for the US currency, less attractive to holders of other currencies.
As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. Earlier in December, Fed executives planned 3 interest rate increases in 2018, and 2 increases in 2019. At the January meeting, the leaders of the Fed confirmed their intentions to support the previously planned plans to tighten monetary policy amid the fast-growing US economy.
So, the macro data published on Friday confirmed the growth of industrial production in the USA. The index of industrial production in February was + 1.1% (the forecast was + 0.3%, the previous value was -0.3%). At the same time, the consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in March (the forecast was 99.3 and 99.7 - the previous value), a maximum of almost 14 years.
It is likely that at the March meeting, the Fed will also raise its forecast for economic growth for the next two years. The expected increase in budget spending in the US, as well as stimulation of the economy due to lower taxes on the activities of US corporations against the backdrop of low unemployment will contribute to the growth of inflationary pressures. This, in turn, can force the Fed to accelerate the pace of normalizing monetary policy.
Investors are trying to understand whether the Fed will raise interest rates 4 times, whereas the Fed previously talked about 3 interest rate increases in 2018. At higher interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with assets that generate interest income, for example, with treasury bonds. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold. However, the decline in gold prices will be restrained by its purchases from retail buyers and also by some investors using gold to hedge the risks of growth in consumer prices amid the expected increase in inflation.
The drop in gold prices will also be hampered by political and economic uncertainty in the world, as many investors prefer to invest in reliable assets during periods of instability in the markets. Another reshuffle in the administration of the White House, as well as the introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US, which provoked fears of unleashing trade wars, increase the demand for protective assets, such as gold.
For today, important news in the economic calendar is not planned, and, apparently, the positive dynamics of the dollar will remain, and the pair XAU / USD will remain under pressure, until Wednesday. At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, the Fed's interest rate decision will be published and the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell will begin, and the comments of the Fed on the decision and prospects of monetary policy in the US will be published.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1308.00, 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1316.00. Take-Profit 1303.00, 1294.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Buy Stop 1316.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1324.00, 1330.00, 1341.00, 1361.00, 1365.00




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  #217  
Old 20-03-2018, 12:27
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NZD/USD: накануне заседаний ФРС и РБНЗ
20/03/2018
Текущая динамика

В преддверии заседания ФРС и публикации в среду решения по процентной ставке, американский доллар растет против сырьевых валют, в том числе и против новозеландского доллара.
Большинство участников рынка ждут, что ФРС объявит о первом в 2018 году повышении процентных ставок, а также даст немного более позитивные прогнозы относительно роста американской экономики в ближайшие 2 года. Прогноз экономистов на 2018 год предусматривает рост ВВП США на 2,7%, а также снижение безработицы до 3,9% к середине года и 3,8% к декабрю.
В то же время многие участники рынка будут искать в заявлении ФРС сигналы относительно возможности ускорения темпов повышения ставок в этом году в целях предотвращения перегрева экономики. Склонность ФРС в сторону более агрессивного ужесточения политики, могут оказать поддержку доллару, так как повышение стоимости заимствований в США делает доллар более привлекательным для инвесторов.
Если же ФРС оставит в силе свой прогноз по поводу 3 повышений ставки в этом году, американский доллар может упасть, поскольку вероятность того, что ставки будут повышены в этом году 3 раза, уже учтена в котировках доллара.
В тот же день, когда будет опубликовано решение ФРС по ставкам, завершится и заседание РБНЗ по вопросам монетарной политики в Новой Зеландии. Решение РБНЗ по ставкам будет опубликовано в среду в 20:00 (GMT).
Как ожидается, процентная ставка останется на прежнем уровне 1,75%. Новозеландская валюта остается устойчивой против доллара США, несмотря на угрозу возникновения торговой войны между Китаем и США, крупнейшими торгово-экономическими партнёрами Новой Зеландии.
Согласно опубликованным на прошлой неделе данным, ВВП Новой Зеландии вырос в 4 квартале на 0,6% (+2,9% в годовом выражении). Это достаточно сильные данные, свидетельствующие о стабильном состоянии новозеландской экономики, остающейся одной из быстрорастущих в мире. Тем не менее, РБНЗ вряд ли пойдёт на ужесточение монетарной политики, как ожидают экономисты, вплоть до середины 2019 года.
Если же в сопроводительном заявлении РБНЗ, которое будет опубликовано также в среду в 20:00 (GMT), будут содержаться сигналы на возможность ужесточения монетарной политики в ближайшем будущем, то новозеландский доллар может укрепиться, в том числе и против доллара США, даже несмотря на планы ФРС по ужесточению монетарной политики в США.
Из новостей на сегодня ждем данные с итогами молочного аукциона, организованного новозеландской компанией Fonterra (специализированная торговая площадка GlobalDairyTrade GDT), которые будут опубликованы после 13:00 (GMT).
Основную часть экономики Новой Зеландии составляет лесопромышленный и сельскохозяйственный комплекс, а значительная часть новозеландского экспорта молочные товары, прежде всего, сухое молоко. Если данные укажут на очередное снижение мировых цен на молочную продукцию, прежде всего, на сухое молоко, то новозеландский доллар снизится. Две недели назад индекс цен на молочную продукцию, подготовленный Global Dairy Trade, вышел с небольшим снижением (-0,6%) против предыдущих значений -0,5%, +5,9%, +4,9%, +2,2% и +0,4%.
*) Расширенный фундаментальный анализ представлен на сайте компании Tifia Forex Broker в разделе tifia.com/analytics

Уровни поддержки и сопротивления
В настоящий момент пара NZD/USD торгуется в зоне сильных уровней - поддержки 0.7165 (ЕМА200 на дневном графике) и сопротивления 0.7250 (ЕМА200 на недельном графике).
Индикаторы OsMA и Стохастик на 4-часовом, дневном, недельном графиках рекомендуют короткие позиции.
Пока NZD/USD находится выше уровня поддержки 0.7165, сохраняется долгосрочная позитивная динамика. Тем не менее, длинные позиции можно рассматривать после возврата NZD/USD в зону выше уровня сопротивления 0.7270 (ЕМА200 на 4-часовом графике). Ближайшая цель роста находится вблизи мартовского максимума на отметке 0.7350.
Пока что предпочтительны короткие позиции с ближайшей целью на уровне поддержки 0.7165 (ЕМА200 на дневном графике).
Пробой уровня поддержки 0.7165 (ЕМА200 на дневном графике) значительно ухудшит перспективы NZD/USD, а пробой ключевого уровня поддержки 0.7080 (ЕМА200 на месячном графике) будет означать окончание восходящей коррекции, начавшейся в сентябре 2015 года.
Пробой уровня поддержки 0.6865 (уровень Фибоначчи 23,6% восходящей коррекции к глобальной волне снижения пары с уровня 0.8800, начавшейся в июле 2014 года; минимумы волны находятся вблизи уровня 0.6260) будет означать возврат в глобальный нисходящий тренд.
Уровни поддержки: 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Уровни сопротивления: 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

Торговые сценарии

Sell по-рынку. Stop-Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7180, 0.7165, 0.7080, 0.6865, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7270, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500


*) Актуальную и развернутую аналитику и новости по рынку форекс смотри на сайте tifia.com компании Tifia Forex Broker
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  #218  
Old 21-03-2018, 11:41
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S&P500: investors took a pause
21/03/2018
Current dynamics

The second trading day, the main US indices are traded in a narrow range. Traders paused before the decision of the Fed on rates, which will be published today at 18:00 (GMT).
Virtually all market participants believe that interest rates will be increased. As expected, the Fed will raise the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points, to 1.50% -1.75%. According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase is estimated at 95%, and this decision is already included in the price.
Greater interest for investors will be presented by a press conference of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, which will start at 18:30 (GMT). Investors will seek in his comments signals for the possibility of faster monetary tightening. The steady rise in inflation and the growth of the US economy forced some investors to put in price 4 rate hikes this year. If Powell confirms this probability, the dollar will rise sharply, and US stock indices will decline.
The Fed's fresh economic forecasts will also be of interest, according to which the Fed may slightly raise forecasts of US GDP growth for 2019 and 2020. Tax reform in the US can provide support to the economy for at least a few years. These are the factors in favor of the growth of stock indices.
Meanwhile, investors are also monitoring the situation around the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, which will begin to operate in the US since Friday. On Thursday, the administration of the US president is expected to announce new foreign trade measures directed against China, including duties of $ 30 billion. This will again remind of the possibility of unleashing new world trade wars.
Also on the agenda of the US Congress is the question of the adoption of a bill on the financing of the government in the amount of $ 1.3 trillion, in order to avoid the third for the year 2018 a partial cessation of work of state institutions. The decision on this issue should be made by the end of the trading day on Friday.
On Thursday, investors' attention will also be directed to the meeting of the Bank of England, which will address the question of the interest rate in the UK.
Thus, volatility on global financial markets will be high until the end of this trading week.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2738.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2690.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2690.0. Objectives 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #219  
Old 22-03-2018, 11:41
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DJIA: investors analyze the results of the last meeting of the Fed
22/03/2018
Current dynamics

The decision of the Fed to increase the interest rate by 0.25%, and adhere to the previously planned plan for further tightening of monetary policy, was negatively welcomed by investors, which caused a decline in both the dollar and the major US stock indexes.
If dollar buyers were disappointed that the Fed did not directly state the probability of 4 rate increases this year, then the stock market participants are disappointed that the Fed has confirmed the direction of its monetary policy for its further tightening.
Seven of the fifteen participants in the last meeting of the Fed still expect at least four increases this year.
The Fed revised its GDP growth forecasts up by 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. The Fed also expects that unemployment, which remained at 4.1% in October, will fall to 3.8% this year against 3.9% in the December forecast.
With the opening of today's trading day, the major US indices are declining.
Investors analyze the comments of the Fed, the dynamics of the monetary policy of the world's central banks and the prospects for increasing tensions in trade.
Investors believe that the Fed's confidence in the US economy and its restrained tone, ultimately, should positively affect the stock market. However, the prospect of further intensifying trade tensions could put pressure on stock indices.
Later on Thursday, the White House will announce a series of restrictive measures directed against China, including import duties on Chinese goods with a total value of at least $ 30 billion.
Donald Trump previously repeatedly pointed to the inadmissibility of a huge deficit in the US trade balance in trade with China.
As you know, the US foreign trade deficit in January amounted to a record $ 56.6 billion. And the introduction of import duties in the US should contribute, on the one hand, to increasing the competitiveness of national producers, and on the other hand, indirectly contribute to reducing the deficit of the foreign trade balance.
At the same time, in the long run, world trade wars do not contribute to the growth of the world economy and stock markets.
Today (at 12:00 GMT) the decision on monetary policy should be announced by the Bank of England. Investors will wait for hints of possible actions on the tightening of monetary policy in May.
Volatility in this period of time will grow throughout the financial market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24650.0, 24970.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24850.0. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 25200.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24850.0. Take-Profit 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0




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  #220  
Old 23-03-2018, 12:14
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S&P500: the mood in the markets remains negative
23/03/2018
Current dynamics

The newly exacerbated threat of the emergence of world trade wars provoked another decline in world stock markets. So, the US DJIA index lost 2.9% on Thursday, which was its worst one-day percentage drop since February 8, the S&P500 fell 2.6% and lost all growth this year, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index lost 3.4%, while the Shenzhen Composite dropped 4.3%.
European indices are also under pressure. For example, the European EuroSTOXX50 opened today's trading day with a gap down after yesterday's sharp decline of 2.1%.
In Europe, the decline was led by the core resources sector. Shares of the steel company Outokumpu Oyj fell 4.8%. The decline in government bond yields led to a pullback in the banking sector.
So the world stock indexes reacted to the new restrictive actions of Washington. Restrictive measures were taken by China. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on the introduction of charges for the import of goods of Chinese production for a total of $ 60 billion. The restriction also concerns the access of Chinese business to American technologies.
Previously, the US imposed import duties on steel and aluminum at 25% and 10%, respectively. Today these duties have come into force.
Protectionist actions of the White House cause sharp criticism from the leaders of the world community. So, Japan's trade minister Hiroshige Seko said today that "This measure is extremely unfortunate". "If we respond to the steps taken by the United States by a series of retaliatory measures, this could indeed lead to the collapse of the free trade system", Seko added.
South Korea, the EU, Australia and some other countries, including those belonging to the NAFTA (Canada and Mexico), are temporarily exempted from these duties.
The US action was a response from China, which announced the introduction of duties on goods from the US, and alarmed markets in Asia. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce today announced that it will return duties on imports of American goods, including pork and processed aluminum, in the amount of $ 3 billion. On Friday, the Nikkei Stock Average closed with a decline of 4.5%, and the yen asylum currency rose against the dollar to its highs since 2016. Stock indexes of South Korea, China and Hong Kong decreased by more than 3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.8%. Earlier, the EU also announced the introduction of restrictive measures to import a number of American goods. In response, Trump threatened to introduce import duties on European cars.
Negative news will continue to rock the markets.
Today, traders will be focused on the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of important macro data on the US and Canada, which will increase the volatility of trading in financial markets.
However, investors will evaluate US protectionist actions against their trading partners. It is likely that in the foreseeable future, the mood in the markets is likely to be negative.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2630.0, 2605.0, 2530.0
Resistance levels: 2650.0, 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2615.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2615.0. Objectives 2720.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0





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  #221  
Old 26-03-2018, 11:39
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XAU/USD: investors are concerned about recent decisions of the White House
26/03/2018
Current dynamics

Due to increased tension in trade relations between China and the United States, the demand for protective assets, in particular gold, has risen sharply. March gold futures on COMEX on the basis of trading rose in price by 1.7%, to 1349.30 dollars per troy ounce, which was the most significant one-day growth since February 14.
Fears that the protectionist trade policy of the US and China will provoke trade wars caused a large-scale decline in the dollar, world stock indices and supported the quotes of gold. Another surge in the volatility of trades in this non-ferrous metal was caused by the US decision to impose restrictive measures against China. Among these measures - import duties on supplies from China worth $ 60 billion, restrictions on the acquisition of American companies and the transfer of technologies to China.
This was stated on Thursday by US President Donald Trump, who intends to reduce the US trade deficit with China to $ 100 billion from the current record level. "Our trade deficit with China, according to various estimates, ranges from $ 375 billion to $ 504 billion. We have a situation with a colossal theft of intellectual property, corresponding to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars", Trump said before signing the memorandum.
China reacted negatively to this decision of the White House. "The US actions do not meet the interests of the Chinese side, or the interests of the American side, or the interests of the whole world, becoming a bad precedent. In any case, the Chinese side will not be indifferent to seeing how its legitimate interests are damaged, we are fully prepared to defend our interests in a resolute manner", the Ministry of Commerce of China said in a statement.
Investors are extremely concerned about the threat of the emergence of world trade wars. Previously, the US announced the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, and first of all, it will affect Japan and China, the largest suppliers of these products in the US. Japanese Commerce Minister Hiroshige Seko said last week that "this measure is extremely unfortunate". "If we respond to the steps taken by the United States by a series of retaliatory measures, this could indeed lead to the collapse of the free trade system", Seko added.
Under normal conditions, monetary tightening strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations. At the March meeting, the Fed raised its forecast for economic growth for the next two years and left its intention to raise the rate this year two more times. Basically, economists expect that a further increase in the interest rate in the US this year will put pressure on gold.
But, despite the Fed's decision to stick to its plan to tighten monetary policy, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks related to the prospect of new trade wars are coming to the fore.
With the opening of today's trading day, gold is traded in a narrow range. On the one hand, the dollar continues to become cheaper today, which positively affects gold quotes. On the other hand, today there is an increase in the main US stock indices, which reached important support levels on the eve, which indicates the resumption of purchases of risky assets of the US stock market. Against this background, gold, usually, becomes cheaper.
If the dollar starts to recover when the positive dynamics on the US stock market resume, then the XAU / USD will start to decline again.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1341.00, 1328.00, 1326.00, 1307.00, 1297.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trade Scenarios

Sell Stop 1340.00. Stop-Loss 1351.00. Take-Profit 1328.00, 1326.00, 1307.00, 1297.00
Buy Stop 1351.00. Stop-loss 1340.00. Take-Profit 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #222  
Old 27-03-2018, 12:34
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DJIA: investors monitor the negotiations of representatives of the United States and China
27/03/2018
Current dynamics

As you know, last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a number of measures aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China by $ 100 billion from the current record level. "Our trade deficit with China, according to various estimates, ranges from $ 375 billion to $ 504 billion. We have a situation with a colossal theft of intellectual property, corresponding to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars", Trump said before signing the memorandum.
China reacted negatively to this decision of the White House. "The US actions do not meet the interests of the Chinese side, or the interests of the American side, or the interests of the whole world, becoming a bad precedent. In any case, the Chinese side will not be indifferent to seeing how its legitimate interests are damaged, we are fully prepared to defend our interests in a resolute manner", the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.
The increased threat of the beginning of world trade wars, provoked by US protectionist actions, contributed to a sharp drop in world stock indices.
Investors also sold the dollar, moving funds into defensive assets, such as the franc, yen, gold.
On Tuesday, the dollar and major US stock indexes are rising. The optimism of investors is fueled by reports that high-ranking representatives of the United States and China are negotiating to resolve the recent contradictions in the trade relations between the two countries.
The chief economic adviser to the Chairman of the People's Republic of China, Liu He, met with representatives of American companies and other representatives of the business community, counting on the resumption of the dialogue. Chairman of the State Council of China Li Keqiang on Monday evening reaffirmed Beijing's readiness to continue negotiations with the US in order to resolve the contradictions in trade and reach a mutually beneficial result.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8% on Monday to 24200.00 points, the S&P 500 grew 2.7% to 2660.00 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.3% to 7220.00 points. On Tuesday, the recovery of indices continues.
If China and the US come to an agreement that suits both sides, then the recovery of the indices will continue. Otherwise, the stock markets are waiting for another collapse. Trade wars have not brought long-term benefits to anyone, although, in the short term, a party that introduces protectionist measures can gain advantages in trade.
For today, the economic calendar is empty. The dynamics in financial markets is currently determined by the situation in the US trade relations with their largest trade and economic partners.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24500.0. Stop-Loss 24270.0. Take-Profit 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 24270.0. Stop-Loss 24500.0. Take-Profit 24146.0, 24050.0, 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #223  
Old 28-03-2018, 11:38
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Brent: price growth may soon resume
28/03/2018
Current dynamics

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) data, which was published Tuesday night, US oil inventories rose 5.3 million barrels last week. The reserves of gasoline decreased by 5.8 million barrels, and the reserves of distillates decreased by 2.2 million barrels.
Investors drew attention to the growth of oil reserves, and its quotes decreased.
Today Brent crude oil is trading in a narrow range near the $ 69.00 per barrel mark, pending the publication at 14:30 (GMT) of official data from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products in the US. Some analysts of the oil market expect an increase in commercial oil reserves in the US, by 1.4 million barrels in the week of March 17-23.
Other analysts expect the stock to decline by 0.287 million barrels. Given the data previously provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API), it is likely that stocks have grown.
While OPEC is making efforts to reduce oil production, the US successfully took advantage of the situation and increased oil production, including shale oil. As you know, the OPEC agreement on the reduction of oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day was signed in 2016 and will continue until the end of 2018.
And now, as it became known from media reports last week, OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.
Another positive factor for oil prices and the argument for further price growth may be the prospect of the US withdrawing from the international agreement on the Iranian nuclear program concluded in 2015.
Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.
Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.
As the UAE energy minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the present time, said last month that OPEC is "more concerned about the supply shortage than its surplus".
There is a high probability that the oil price rally may soon resume.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 69.00, 68.00, 66.70, 63.00, 61.60, 60.00, 57.00
Resistance levels: 70.00, 70.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 68.50. Stop-Loss 69.60. Take-Profit 68.00, 66.70, 63.00, 61.60
Buy Stop 69.60. Stop-Loss 68.50. Take-Profit 70.00, 70.75, 76.00




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  #224  
Old 29-03-2018, 11:43
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USD/CAD: market participants are likely to prefer the US dollar on the eve of a long weekend
29/03/2018
Current dynamics

"Economic prospects have strengthened in recent months", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week. "Some factors confirm that the prospects for fiscal policy are becoming more stimulating, the continuing growth of jobs contributes to income and trust, foreign growth has been on a strong trajectory and the financial conditions as a whole remain mild".
The dollar demonstrates a large-scale strengthening, which is caused by the successful advancement of negotiations between high-ranking representatives of the United States and China regarding trade relations between the two countries, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US, and also by the continuing of receiving positive macro data from the US.
So, on Wednesday the US Commerce Department published data according to which GDP in the 4th quarter was better than forecast and rose by 2.9% (the previous release indicated GDP growth of 2.5%, and the forecast was + 2.7%). .
The report, published on Wednesday, also pointed to an increase in consumer spending in the 4th quarter, while investment by companies remained high. At the same time, investments in fixed assets of non-residents increased by 6.8% per annum. The growth leader was equipment costs, which grew by 11.6%.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic said on Wednesday that inflation is growing faster than some common indicators indicate, which gives the US central bank the opportunity to continue a gradual increase in interest rates.
On Thursday, the market is demonstrating the sluggish trading dynamics. Traders prefer not to open new positions before the long weekend in connection with the celebration of Catholic Easter.
It is likely that at the second half of the US session traders will also begin fixing long positions in the dollar, which will cause it to decline, unless, of course, the macro statistics published at 12:30 (GMT) on the US again surpass the market expectations and will not, therefore, support dollar. Among the data published at this time - indicators of personal income / expenditure, as well as the basic price index of personal consumption expenditure for February. The base price index is expected to grow by 1.6% (in annual terms) against + 1.5% in January. If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar will resume growth.
Weak indicators will have a negative impact on the dollar and may become a trigger for closing long positions in the dollar.
Also at 12:30 (GMT) will be published data on Canada's GDP for January. Probably, GDP will grow by 0.1%, as well as in December. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian currency will strengthen, including against the US dollar.
With all other unaccounted-for conditions, market participants are likely to prefer the US dollar on the eve of a long weekend. European stock exchanges will be closed from March 30 to April 2, although the work of the forex market will remain unchanged.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2828, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2917, 1.3000, 1.3100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2925. Take-Profit 1.2828, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700
Buy Stop 1.2925. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3200



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  #225  
Old 30-03-2018, 12:03
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USD/CHF: ahead - Catholic Easter. The exchanges are closed.
30/03/2018
Current dynamics

Today there is a low activity of traders. The volume of trading on the forex market even more fell with the beginning of the European session. In Catholic countries today is a day off (Good Friday). Stock and commodity exchanges in Europe, the United States, as well as in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada will be closed. Although forex and works in the usual mode, volatility and trading volumes will be restored only on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the dollar is declining from the opening of today's trading day against all major currencies, including against the franc. The dollar is not helped by the positive macro statistics released yesterday, according to which the price index of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in February rose by 1.8% compared to the same period of the previous year and by 0.2% compared to the previous month. This Fed's preferred inflation indicator indicates that inflation in February rose and approaches the Fed's target level of 2%.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and member of the FOMC Patrick Harker said on Thursday that, in view of the acceleration of inflation this year, it is necessary to raise the rates a total of three times, whereas previously he had forecast two increases.
Harker expects that in the coming years inflation will slightly exceed the target level of 2%. "Trade taxes increase costs", - said Harker. New forecasts of the Fed's leaders published last week suggest higher economic growth, higher inflation and lower unemployment compared with the December forecasts. Heads of the Fed refer to the likely acceleration of economic growth due to changes in tax policy and increased federal spending.
As you know, last week the leaders of the Fed unanimously voted to raise the key interest rate to a range of 1.5% -1.75% and outlined two more such increases this year.
Investors expected to receive signals from the Fed for 4 rate hikes this year. However, this did not happen, and the dollar declined shortly after the Fed meeting, as 3 rate increases are already laid in the prices and quotes of the dollar.
Concerns of investors is continued due to the cause increased risks of the emergence of world trade wars after the well-known steps of the US administration towards escalating the protectionist position and imposing restrictions on the importation of a number of foreign goods into the US.
In this situation, investors prefer safe assets, such as the yen, gold and franc.
Meanwhile, the Swiss franc also remains under pressure, despite its purchases as a safe haven. As you know, in mid-March, the Swiss National Bank left its negative interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remained at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate also remained unchanged, between -1.25% and -0.25%. The NBS traditionally stated that the franc rate is still too high, which indicates that the NBS still intends to keep rates in the negative territory.
"The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it", the NBS said.
Thus, the difference in the direction of monetary policy in the US and Switzerland is the most important argument in favor of the growth of the USD / CHF.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9720, 0.9690, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9775, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9740. Stop-Loss 0.9690. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9690. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Take-Profit 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #226  
Old 02-04-2018, 11:34
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S&P500: negative sentiment of investors
02/04/2018
Current dynamics

The European stock and stock markets of Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are still closed today on the occasion of the holiday (Catholic Easter).
Asian indices fell on Monday amid tensions in world trade and concerns about the technology sector.
The key index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 0.2% after the introduction of import tariffs; South Korean Kospi dropped 0.1%, Taiwan's Taiex declined 0.3%, Japanese Nikkei traded 0.3% lower.
The Chinese authorities introduced reciprocal import duties on US agricultural products, including a 25% tariff on American pork and a 15% duty on fruit. In total 128 items of goods imported from the United States are in the restrictive list.
As you know, President of the United States Donald Trump signed on March 9 an order to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Fees for import of steel amounted to 25%, for imports of aluminum - 10%, because according to Washington, the import of steel and aluminum "threatens the national security" of the country.
Then on March 22, the White House adopted a memorandum on imposing trade restrictions on Beijing in order to reduce the deficit in US trade with China, which "according to various estimates, was between $ 375 billion and $ 504 billion". In total, the amount of restrictions on Chinese imports will be $ 60 billion. In China, after this, the United States were warned against the "trade war".
Investors are worried about the aggravation of trade relations between the US and China and have not yet decided what exactly this situation will turn out.
It is likely that against the background of the decline in leading Asian stock indices today, the main US trading indices will also open on negative territory.
News background today is meager. Negative mood of investors will be reflected in the decline of US indices at the opening of the American market. In full, the volatility and trading volumes on world financial markets will recover only on Tuesday.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2650.0, 2658.0, 2702.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2615.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0
Buy Stop 2660.0. Stop-Loss 2615.0. Objectives 2702.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #227  
Old 03-04-2018, 11:48
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AUD/USD: there is no reason to change the current monetary policy
03/04/2018
Current dynamics

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged on Tuesday at 1.5%. Interest rates remain unchanged as a result of 18 meetings in a row. In the comments RBA adhered to the usual rhetoric. "Despite the improvement in the labor market, wage growth rates remain low, which is likely to continue for some time", said RBA Governor Philip Lowe. "Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector", Lowe said, adding that the RBA will not follow other central banks in the world that are prone to tightening policies. The country is expecting a weak wage growth, as well as low inflation, which means interest rates can remain unchanged for most of 2019, according to many economists.
The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar after the publication of the RBA's decision on rates. Nevertheless, the negative trend of AUD / USD persists.
The tension associated with the trade relations between China and the US will continue to put pressure on commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar. The threat of further protectionist measures by the US against other countries (especially China) is a risk to economic growth in the world. If tensions in foreign trade increase, it can slow global economic growth and lower demand and commodity prices, which, in turn, will negatively affect the quotations of commodity currencies.
The key rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% for the RBA since mid-2016, and economists believe that the central bank will not change it after 2019. The reasons for changing the current monetary policy in the RBA are not seen, and this is the main negative factor for the Australian dollar, while other major world banks can start curtailing softening programs and raise interest rates.
The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD.
For today, important economic news is no longer planned. The attention of investors will gradually switch to the publication on Friday of data on the US labor market for March. Strong data are expected. If there are no unexpected events in the world until Friday, then we should expect the strengthening of the US dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7635, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130, 0.8200

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7715. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500
Buy Stop 0.7715. Stop-Loss 0.7670. Take-Profit 0.7765, 0.7795, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #228  
Old 04-04-2018, 12:46
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DJIA: amid escalating trade contradictions between the US and China
04/04/2018
Current dynamics

World stock markets fell sharply on Wednesday after the state Chinese TV reported that import duties on imports of US goods to China totaled $ 50 billion. This is the answer to the new tariffs, which the US reported on Tuesday.
China announced a 25% duty on US imports, including soybeans, aircraft and cars. Deputy Finance Minister of China Zhu Guangyao and Vice Minister of Commerce of China Van Shouwen will hold a joint press conference on Wednesday evening. "Such unilateral protectionist measures clearly violate the fundamental principles and values of the World Trade Organization", the Chinese embassy in the US said in a statement. China took these measures after the administration of Donald Trump on Tuesday said that it will levy duties from imported Chinese goods in the amount of $ 50 billion in excess of the duties imposed on steel and aluminum. Earlier this week, China introduced reciprocal duties on various American goods, including pork and fruit.
Strengthening trade contradictions between the US and China on Wednesday strengthened the price of gold, which traded with an increase of 0.76%, at 1343.00 dollars per troy ounce. Investors once again prefer safe haven assets, such as the yen, franc, and gold.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.9% after a statement on China's response fees. The key indices of Hong Kong and Singapore lost 2.2% and 1.8% respectively. The South Korean Kospi dropped 1.4%.
The main US indices also fell after this information. DJIA lost 1.8% to the beginning of the US trading session, falling to 23500.0. It is likely that with the opening of trading on US stock exchanges, the indices will continue to decline.
Volatility will raise both at the beginning of the US trading session and during the publication of important macro data on the US.
At 12:00 (GMT) ADP will present a monthly report on employment in the private sector of the US economy for March. This report usually has a strong impact on financial markets, although there is usually no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls. Strong data will positively affect the dollar and indices. The number of employees in the private sector in the US is expected to increase by 205,000 (against +235,000 in February). This is a strong indicator, despite the relative decline.
A little later (at 13:45 and 14:00 GMT) indices of ISM business activity in the US services sector, as well as the indicator of orders for durable goods in the US in March will be published. The indicator reflects the value of orders received by producers of durable goods, implying large investments. The growth of indicators is expected, which will positively affect the indices and the dollar.
Nevertheless, investors will assess the risks and threats that have emerged against the background of escalating trade contradictions between the US and China, which will be the main driver in the financial markets in the short term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 23600.0, 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0
Resistance levels: 24050.0, 24080.0, 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 24200.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 24425.0, 24800.0, 25000.0, 25750.0, 26620.0
Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 24200.0. Take-Profit 23120.0, 23000.0, 22450.0


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #229  
Old 05-04-2018, 12:08
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USD/CAD: Canadian foreign trade deficit is expected to grow
05/04/2018
Current dynamics

As reported by the US Department of Commerce on Wednesday, orders for manufactured goods in February rose by 1.2% (after falling by -1.3% in January). New orders for durable goods in February rose by 3.0% compared with the previous month.
Activity in the US services sector also grew in March. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US non-manufacturing sector in March was 58.8, compared to 59.5 in February. Despite the relative decline, this is a strong indicator; Index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.
Employment in the private sector of the US in March grew stronger than forecast. According to the submitted Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) data, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 241,000 in March (the forecast was +205,000).
The ADP report precedes the official data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture, which will be presented on Friday by the Ministry of Labor. Economists predict that the data will show an increase in the number of jobs in March by 190,000 after an increase of 313,000 in the previous month.
The dollar and US stock indices reacted positively to this information and rose in the second half of the US session on Wednesday. Today, the growth of the indices and the dollar continues.
The dollar is also being helped by the easing of the anxiety about trade wars between the US and China after the countries imposed restrictions on trade in goods with an aggregate value of about $ 100 billion.
On Wednesday, concern about trade wars began to weaken, as representatives of both economic superpowers were ready for negotiations.
The response tariffs on imports of a number of American goods, which China threatens to accept after the introduction of duties in the US, led to a new phase in intensive negotiations on new trade relations.
In recent days, there has been a strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, including due to favorable expectations regarding the future agreement on NAFTA.
Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar remains vulnerable against data indicating a slowdown in Canadian economic growth, which calls into question the probability of an increase in the Bank of Canada's key interest rate in the coming months. The Canadian economy grew by 3% in 2017, which is the fastest rate among the G7, and inflation in February increased to the highest level in the last three years. However, other data indicate that the economy lost its upward momentum in early 2018.
Concerns about international trade and the high debt burden of consumers are likely to deter the Bank of Canada from raising rates during the first half of this year.
"We all know that interest rates are low, and this suggests that in a more normal period they would be higher than today", said Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz at a press conference in mid-March. "But the transition to this is a very gradual process", he added.
Today at 12:30 (GMT) data on Canada's foreign trade balance for February will be published. The deficit of the foreign trade balance is expected to grow to -2.00 billion Canadian dollars, down from -1.91 billion Canadian dollars in the previous month. This is a negative factor for the Canadian dollar, and when the forecast is confirmed, CAD will decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2770, 1.2740, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2830, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2730. Stop-Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop-Loss 1.2730. Take-Profit 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #230  
Old 06-04-2018, 12:07
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AUD/USD: on the eve of the publication of NFP
06/04/2018
Current dynamics

Unconditional center of attention of traders today will be the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of monthly data on the US labor market. It is widely expected that
the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector increased by 193,000 in March after an increase of 313,000 in the previous month, unemployment fell to 4.0%, and the average hourly salary of Americans grew by 0.2% (against + 0.1% in February). It is this part of the report (growth of labor payment) that will be of interest to investors. During the December meeting, the leaders of the Fed planned to implement three key rate increases in 2018. However, recent forecasts showed that this year an increasing number of leaders are inclined to four increases, 0.25% each time.
New forecasts showed that now the Fed expects faster economic growth, higher inflation and a more significant reduction in unemployment this year.
So far, inflation in the US is below the target level of 2%, with most of the past five years.
A new fiscal policy in conditions of low unemployment can lead to a sharp rise in wages, which, in turn, will also cause inflation. In this case, the central bank will have to raise rates faster than expected to avoid hyperinflation and bubble growth in stock markets.
That is why the growth rates of salaries, personal income of Americans and inflation in March and April are very important. If they demonstrate faster growth then this can make Fed leaders more confident in their forecasts and plans for interest rates. And this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar.
At the same time, other major world central banks adhere to the former soft monetary policy. According to the Governor of the RBA Philip Lowey, at present there are no arguments in favor of changing the monetary policy of Australia.
Last Tuesday, the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 1.5%. "Despite the improvement in the labor market, wage growth rates remain low, which is likely to continue for some time", said RBA Governor Philip Lowe. "Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector", Lowe said, adding that the RBA will not follow other central banks in the world that are prone to tightening policies. The country is expecting a weak wage growth, as well as low inflation, which means interest rates can remain unchanged for most of 2019, according to many economists.
The key interest rate of the RBA remains at a record low of 1.5% since mid-2016, and now it is expected that the first increase will take place only in 2019. Some economists say that interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak growth of wages and high underutilization of labor market capacities.
The unemployment rate fluctuated by about 5.5% for most of the past 12 months, and the RBA expressed doubts that full employment will be achieved in the near future.
Thus, the different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7760, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7925, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7735. Take-Profit 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7735. Stop-Loss 0.7635. Take-Profit 0.7760, 0.7820, 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000



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  #231  
Old 09-04-2018, 12:31
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S&P500: the resumption of falling indices is not worth waiting for
09/04/2018
Current dynamics

The renewed tension in the trade relations between the US and China led to a sharp drop in the main US indices at the end of last week.
S & P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite lost more than 2% on Friday. The aggravation of the trade conflict between the US and China threatens the growth of the world economy.
Last week, the White House announced import duties on 1300 categories of Chinese goods, with a total value of 50 billion US dollars. China, in turn, said that it would impose duties on 106 categories of goods from the United States. On Wednesday, the world stock markets collapsed after China announced that it was imposing import duties on US goods worth a total of $ 50 billion.
Nevertheless, since the beginning of today's trading day, futures for US stock indexes are growing. The statements of official representatives of the White House, sounded over the weekend, calmed investors. Representatives of the administration of the US President Donald Trump said that previously issued restrictive measures with respect to Chinese goods have not yet been implemented. In the White House they hope to come to an agreement and prevent the outbreak of a trade war. So, the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchin said on Sunday that he "does not expect the beginning of the trade war". Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that he expects China to reduce trade barriers, because "this will be the right decision". According to him, the US will take mutual measures in the field of taxes and conclude an agreement with China on intellectual property. Lawrence Kadlow, who is the head of the National Economic Council, reassured market participants, stressing that "so far nothing has happened".
Meanwhile, if there is no next round of escalation of the trade conflict between China and the US, this week we can expect the growth of US stock indices, as the US will start the reporting season. Positive reports of American companies are expected. According to FactSet, this is the maximum number (53 companies from the S & amp; 500 calculation base, which expect positive quarterly statistics) since 2006. Forecasts are highest in the technological sector.
Investors, it seems, were also encouraged by the news that the leader of North Korea over the weekend confirmed his willingness to discuss with the US the elimination of nuclear weapons.
This week (Wednesday at 18:00 GMT) will be published minutes from the March meeting of the Fed. As you know, the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 1.75% and gave a more positive outlook for economic growth. "The outlook for the economy has improved in recent months", the Federal Reserve said in an official statement following the meeting. The central bank expects GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. The Fed also kept the outlook for two more rate hikes this year, although many investors betting on the dollar's rise were counting on the Fed signaling about 4 rate hikes this year.
If in the protocols investors do not find signals aimed at a more accelerated tightening of monetary policy, then with a progressive positive forecast of the growth of the US economy, the stock indices will receive real support for more confident recovery and the resumption of growth.
For today, important news is not planned. It is likely that the sluggish dynamics of trading will remain the same during the American trading session, but the resumption of the fall of the indices is not yet to be expected.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2630.0, 2636.0, 2683.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2609.0. Stop-Loss 2637.0. Objectives 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2637.0. Stop-Loss 2609.0. Objectives 2683.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



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  #232  
Old 10-04-2018, 12:09
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USD/CAD: Canada's business sentiment are improving
10/04/2018
Current dynamics

The tension in the trade relations between the US and China weakened, and the risk appetite for investors again increased. After this, stock markets grew, and commodity and oil prices strengthened. Rising commodity prices, as well as a general weakening of the dollar, contribute to the growth of quotations of commodity currencies against the US dollar.
Investors also took a positive view of the speech of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Boao Asian Forum on Tuesday. Xi Jinping stressed Beijing's commitment to further liberalization of the economy and promised to give foreign companies more access to the financial and manufacturing sectors of China.
Investors considered Xi Jinping's speech as conciliatory with respect to the US, which gives hope for resolving the trade conflict between the two countries.
On Monday, the Bank of Canada published the results of a survey according to which the mood of the business community remains positive, which is supported by good sales forecasts due to strong demand from the US. The companies signaled a desire to increase capital expenditures in the next year and create new jobs.
The Canadian economy grew by 3% in 2017, which is the fastest rate among the G7 countries, and inflation in February increased to the highest level in the last three years.
The growth of the positive mood of business circles in Canada is also promoted by the expectations regarding the achievement of the NAFTA agreement. The US wants to reach an agreement on the NAFTA in the coming weeks.
In January, the central bank of Canada raised the rate, and left it unchanged in March, pointing to the uncertainty associated with US trade policy. In the second half of the year, the pace of economic growth has slowed significantly, and data point to a slight decrease in GDP in January.
"We all know that interest rates are low, and this suggests that in a more normal period they would be higher than today", said Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz at a press conference in mid-March. "But the transition to this is a very gradual process", he added.
Nevertheless, a positive assessment of the state of the Canadian economy and the mood of the country's business circles is especially important on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which will be held on April 18.
Probably, the Bank of Canada will keep the current interest rate at 1.25%. Investors will study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada to understand the prospects for the monetary policy of the bank. If signals from the side of the Bank of Canada towards a rapid increase in the interest rate, the Canadian dollar will strengthen, including against the US dollar, which remains vulnerable against a growing deficit of foreign trade and the US federal budget.
On Monday, the Budget Office of the US Congress published its forecast, according to which the recent tax cuts and increased budget spending will make the state budget deficit exceed the $ 1 trillion mark by 2020.
"The increasing of public debt in the late stages of the business cycle is bad", commented Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, the slow growth of productivity, and the high level of public debt can become deterrents for GDP growth in the next few years, Kaplan said. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added. "In 2018, GDP growth will be relatively high", Kaplan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. "In 2019-2020, I expect some slowdown in economic growth, so raising rates will also be less rapid", he said.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2670. Stop-Loss 1.2710. 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170
Buy Stop 1.2710. Stop-Loss 1.2670. Take-Profit 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #233  
Old 11-04-2018, 13:06
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XAU/USD: demand for gold will continue
11/04/2018
Current dynamics

The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March Fed meeting. At this meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to increase the range of the key interest rate by a quarter of percentage points to 1.5% -1.75% and raised the forecast for the growth of the US economy for the next two years.
"The outlook for the economy has improved in recent months", the Fed said in an official statement following the meeting. The central bank expects GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, and predict annual inflation at 2,1% next year against 2% in the previous forecast. Investors were disappointed that the Fed confirmed the intention to raise another 2 times the rate this year. However, the new forecasts published after the meeting indicated that the Fed could accelerate the rate of rate hikes in order to cool down the economy after 2019. And this is now the main intrigue - how high is the probability that the Fed will make 4 rate increases this year, rather than 3, as it was planned earlier. In a statement by the Fed following the results of the March meeting, it was said that the risks appear to be approximately balanced.
Nevertheless, there was one significant negative factor. The leaders of the Federal Reserve took a cautious approach to the introduction of duties and other restrictions on trade with China. Investors now need to know how the Fed will react in the event of increased tensions.
It is likely that the number of supporters of a more balanced approach with regard to the rate of further rate increases may increase. It is characteristic that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan said on Monday that this year he expects two more interest rate hikes. At the same time, he believes that in the coming years the rate of rate hikes will decrease due to a slowdown in the economy.
The aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, the slow growth of productivity, and the high level of public debt can become deterrents to GDP growth in the next few years, the president of the Fed-Dallas said. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.
On Monday, the Budget Office of the US Congress published its forecast, according to which the state budget deficit by 2020 will exceed the $ 1 trillion mark.
The recent tax cuts and the increase in budget expenditures create prerequisites for the growth of the federal budget deficit. In addition, the growing deficit of the US foreign trade balance, coupled with the trade conflict with China, makes investors cautious about buying dollars. The dollar remains under pressure, despite the Fed's rate hike.
Under normal conditions, tightening monetary policy of the Fed strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations.
But at the moment, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks, connected with the prospect of new trade wars, are brought to the forefront.
Perhaps, the trade conflict will not be aggravated, but it is too early to say about its completion. Volatility and negative dynamics of the stock market will continue, at least until the end of May, given the planned introduction of customs duties in the US. Against this background, the demand for gold will continue.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00, 1277.00, 1268.00
Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

Trade recommendations

Sell Stop 1339.00. Stop-Loss 1355.00. Take-Profit 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00
Buy Stop 1355.00. Stop-Loss 1339.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00




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  #234  
Old 12-04-2018, 12:44
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USD/CHF: amid positive macro statistics
12/04/2018
Current dynamics

Against the background of positive macro statistics, received on Wednesday from the US, and after the publication of the minutes from the March meeting of the Fed, the dollar strengthens against the defensive assets such as gold, yen, franc.
As follows from published protocols, the leaders of the Fed are more confident in achieving a target inflation rate of 2% during the year, confirming plans for a gradual increase in interest rates. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Fed planned to raise the interest rate in 2018, and they confirmed two more rate hikes.
In the past year, the drop in unemployment was the argument for higher rates. Since October 2017, unemployment is 4.1%, remaining near the lowest level in 18 years. The leaders also said that the weakening of inflation is temporary, and inflationary pressures have grown in recent months. As reported on Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor, the basic consumer price index in the US rose in March by 2.1% compared to a year earlier. This is the strongest growth in the index since February 2017.
The dollar also replayed a part of losses on the publication on Tuesday of the producer price index (PPI), which in March rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may speak of increasing inflationary pressure in the economy.
Now investors will pay attention to the fact that the basic index of prices for personal consumption expenditures, which the Fed prefers, in March grew by 1.9% compared to March 2017. The Ministry of Commerce will publish it later this month. In February, the growth of the index was 1.6% (with the target level of 2.0%).
This index is preferred for the Fed in determining the level of inflation. But if it turns out to be worse than the forecast, then the probability of 4 rate increases this year will significantly decrease, which will have a negative impact on the dollar.
From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on the number of new (initial) applications for unemployment benefits in the US over the past week. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar, and vice versa. Previous value of 242 000, forecast - 230 000, which should positively affect the dollar in case of confirmation of the forecast.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9610, 0.9600, 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9640, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9650. Stop-Loss 0.9590. Take-Profit 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9590. Stop-Loss 0.9650. Take-Profit 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300



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  #235  
Old 13-04-2018, 11:57
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AUD/USD: commodity currencies increased against the backdrop of risks with raw material supplies
13/04/2018
Current dynamics

As part of his speech on Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that "the central bank needs good reasons to change its policy". Earlier this month, when the RBA kept the interest rate at 1.5%, Philip Lowe said that "it is likely that inflation will remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector". In his opinion, the RBA will not follow other central banks of the world, which are prone to tightening policies.
Economists predict that official inflation data, expected later in April, will show a 0.4% increase in consumer prices in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and 1.8% compared with the first quarter of 2017, when this rate of core inflation will be slightly higher.
Taking into account the attention that the RBA assigns to achieving the target inflation range (2% -3%), an increase in interest rates is not expected in the coming months.
This is a negative factor for the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, on Friday the Australian dollar is growing, including in cross-pairs and against the US dollar.
Its strengthening is supported by the growth of world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, as well as positive data on China's foreign trade balance, which is Australia's closest and largest trading partner.
Last Thursday, oil prices reached new three-year highs due to increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in oil production in OPEC and Russia.
WTI futures for NYMEX rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 67.07 per barrel. Futures for aluminum in the first half of the European session traded with an increase of 1.75%, at 2323.50 dollars per ton. Over the last week, aluminum prices have added 13.1%. Copper futures rose 0.54% to 6859 dollars per ton.
Australia is the world's largest supplier of primary commodities; primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, coal, which accounts for 10% of the country's total foreign trade, oil and oil products, and gold.
China accounts for 25% of Australia's total exports and 13% of imports to Australia.
According to official data released on Friday, the surplus of foreign trade in March was 326.1 billion yuan, and imports to China increased by 14.4%, including through the importation of raw materials into the country. Australia as a supplier of raw materials to China is at the forefront.
Despite the fact that the RBA intends to maintain a soft monetary policy, as the RBA said on Wednesday Philip Lowe, the Australian dollar is growing.
Even though the different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia is the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening AUD / USD, today AUD / USD is growing. Risks associated with interruptions in the supply of primary commodities to the world market are coming to the fore.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7760, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7820, 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7750. Stop-Loss 0.7810. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7830. Stop-Loss 0.7750. Take-Profit 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000




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  #236  
Old 16-04-2018, 12:37
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S&P500: the intensity has been asleep; investors switched attention to economic data
16/04/2018
Current dynamics

In recent weeks, investors have been alarmed by geopolitical tensions, by lower than expected macroeconomic data, and trade conflicts.
Investors sighed with relief after the air strikes on Syria, inflicted on Saturday, did not lead to a serious aggravation of the conflict and not escalate into a large-scale military conflict. A representative of the Pentagon said that a single wave of blows has been completed so far. President Donald Trump on Saturday wrote on Twitter that "the task is completed".
The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.851% from 2.828%. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, is declining from the opening of the trading day, dropping from 89.50 to 89.28 at the beginning of the US trading session.
Uncertainty may increase again, but the darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover. Investors turned their attention to economic data and corporate reporting. On Monday, traders are waiting for new US data on retail sales. Retail sales are expected to grow by + 0.4% in March (against a decline of -0.3% in February and the previous forecast release of -0.1%), which should positively affect the US stock indexes when confirming the forecast.
Volatility in the stock markets could rise sharply on Tuesday during the Asian session, when at 02:00 (GMT) Chinese data on economic growth (GDP for the first quarter) and the March business activity statistics and industrial production, as well as the level of retail sales will be published.
This will be particularly reflected in the dynamics of Asian stock indices, but will affect the US indices as well.
Also it is worth paying attention to today's speech by representatives of the Fed (at 16:00 and 17:15 GMT). If they touch on the topic of monetary policy in the US, then volatility in the dynamics of US stock indices will grow (in the short term).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2650.0, 2645.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Resistance levels: 2680.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2645.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0
Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2645.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



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  #237  
Old 17-04-2018, 13:42
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GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
17/04/2018
Current dynamics

Despite the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) at the beginning of the European session indicating that the British labor market is in good shape, the pound declined after the publication of the data. Earlier, the GBP / USD reached its highest level in 22 months at 1.4375.
The average hourly earnings of Britons (without premiums) for the period December-February increased by 2.8%, which means that real wages increased by 0.1%. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015. Unemployment fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January, the lowest level since 1975. The data indicate that the UK labor market remains healthy.
Probably, the presented data will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 0.75% at its May meeting (May 10). Earlier, the Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain inflation.
Despite the current growth, the pound is undervalued, which implies its further possible growth.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound.
Nevertheless, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the issue of leaving the UK from the EU, and the Teresa May government is weak, and the Bank of England against this background may postpone the issue of tightening monetary policy.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data for the US at 12:30 (GMT), and between 13:15 and 17:10, several members of the FOMC (Williams, Quorles, Harker, Evans) are scheduled to perform. If they touch upon the subject of the monetary policy of the Fed and speak in favor of faster rates of tightening of the policy of the American central bank, the dollar may strengthen for a short time, including in the GBP / USD. The tougher the rhetoric of their speeches, the stronger the dollar will be strengthened.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.4302, 1.4263, 1.4205, 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
Resistance levels: 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios

Buy Limit 1.4305, 1.4265. Stop-Loss 1.4225. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Buy Stop 1.1.4350. Stop-Loss 1.4285. Take-Profit 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #238  
Old 18-04-2018, 12:25
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Brent: price growth has resumed
18/04/2018
Current dynamics

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, oil reserves in the US fell by 1 million barrels in the week of April 7 - 13, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels and 0.854 million barrels, respectively.
Against the background of forecasts of the stocks falling in the US, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Futures for Brent crude at ICE recently rose in price by 0.68%, to 72.00 dollars per barrel. Futures for oil WTI on NYMEX added 0,83%, to 67.00 dollars per barrel.
On Wednesday (14:30 GMT), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish an official report on reserves. Economists expect the fall in oil and oil products stocks in the week of April 7 - April by 1.429 million barrels against the growth of 3.306 million barrels the previous week.
In anticipation of a positive outlook for oil reserves and after the API report, the spot price for Brent crude rose at the beginning of the European session to $ 72.00 per barrel. In the oil market there is again an increased interest of investors in purchases.
At the end of last week, oil prices reached the highest level in more than three years. At the weekend, a coalition led by the United States struck a missile strike on Syria, which increased geopolitical risks, as well as the risks of possible interruptions in the supply of oil from the Asian region.
Coupled with the likelihood of the US imposing sanctions against Iran, such a situation could lead to a crisis in the supply of oil. Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.
As you know, OPEC and 10 other oil-producing countries, including Russia, have reduced total production by 1.8 million barrels a day since the beginning of last year. The term of the agreement, aimed at limiting the excess of the world supply, expires at the end of 2018.
On Friday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC ministers will discuss the possibility of maintaining oil production restrictions next year.
Last month, the media reported that OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.
If the parties to the production cut-off agreement decide to extend the agreement for the next year under this agreement, even the growing oil production in the US will not be able to influence the prospect of further price increases. According to Baker Hughes data, published last Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 7 units to 815 units. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA),
The United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world in terms of oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.
Geopolitical risks that can lead to supply disruptions, as well as OPEC's intention to extend the agreement on limiting oil production, increase the pressure on oil prices towards their further growth. Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.
As the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the time, said earlier, OPEC is now "more concerned about the supply shortage than its excess". Rally oil prices, it seems, is not going to end.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 70.75, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00, 62.40, 60.00, 57.50
Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 73.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 70.70. Stop-Loss. Take-Profit, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00
Buy Stop 72.10. Stop-Loss 70.70. Take-Profit 73.00, 73.50, 75.00



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  #239  
Old 19-04-2018, 12:21
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USD/CAD: The rate remained at the same level, however ...
19/04/2018
Current dynamics

The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% on Wednesday. In the accompanying statement, the central bank expressed its concern over international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations, pointing to the problems of the export sector and the housing market.
"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.
The decision to keep the key rate at the previous level was widely expected. Many of the economists pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as the main reason for this outcome of the next meeting of the central bank.
According to a statement issued on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will remain cautious and will focus on incoming economic data. Despite the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the rate at the same level, many economists believe that the statement of the Bank of Canada was "balanced".
Despite the decline, after the decision of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar gets support from rising oil prices. The bulk of Canadian exports accounted for the share of oil and petroleum products. As the world's largest exporter of oil, petroleum products and liquefied gas, the Canadian economy is receiving tangible benefits from rising oil prices.
Apparently, the pair USD / CAD decline will resume if the oil market still has a bullish trend, and in the negotiating process for NAFTA there will be tangible progress. The Bank of Canada also said on Wednesday that "raising interest rates will be justified with time", however, there are no more precise terms.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2660, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200




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  #240  
Old 20-04-2018, 12:23
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GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages
20/04/2018

Current dynamics

The Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain the growth of inflation.
Earlier in the week, strong macro statistics came out. So, the unemployment rate in the UK in December 2017 - February 2018 fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January. The last time unemployment fell to 4.2% in 1975, the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) noted. The reduction in unemployment has provoked employment growth. Salaries (without premiums) for the reported three-month period increased by 2.8% against the backdrop of an increase in salaries in construction and production. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015.
Economists believed that the next rate hike - up to 0.75% - could happen in May. However, the comments of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, given to them earlier in the week, have diminished the expectations of investors for raising rates, which many expected already next month.
He noted that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May. There is also uncertainty about the future relationship between the UK and the EU. According to Thomson Reuters, the probability of a rate hike in May has now fallen below 50%.
On the comments of Carney, the pound fell sharply. With the opening of today's trading day, the GBP / USD pair continued to decline, however, the comments of central bank representative Michael Saunders, which he gave at 09:30 (GMT), supported the pound.
During his speech in Scotland, he said that the inflationary pressures in the economy are increasing because of the almost complete disappearance of free labor.
Saunders believes that Britain does not need such a soft monetary policy. "It's time to stop pushing the gas pedal so hard", says the text of the speech he made in Glasgow.
In March, Saunders was one of two committee members who voted to raise the key rate to 0.75% from the current 0.50%.
In turn, the dollar continues to advance in the foreign exchange market, including against the backdrop of rising yields on US government bonds. Thus, the yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.915% from the level of 2.914%, recorded on Thursday.
According to economists, bond yields increase due to rising inflation expectations caused by strong strengthening of commodity prices and a reduction in geopolitical risks at the moment.
The ICE dollar index has grown again today, and, for 4 consecutive days to 90.00, having reached the maximum since April 9.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and member of the FOMC Loretta Mester said on Thursday evening that consistent increases in interest rates are necessary in order to maintain economic recovery and avoid its overheating. According to Mester, holding interest rates at too low levels is the wrong way.
Thus, the FRS at the moment remains, perhaps, the single largest world central bank, implementing a gradual tightening of monetary policy. And this is the most important fundamental factor in favor of the growth of the dollar at the moment.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.4030, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600
Resistance levels: 1.4075, 1.4090, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.4110. Stop-Loss 1.4020. Take-Profit 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760
Sell Stop 1.4020. Stop-Loss 1.4110. Take-Profit 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600



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