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  #121  
Old 01-11-2017, 11:19
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NZD/USD: the pair remains under pressure, despite the correction
01/11/2017
Current dynamics

After the publication of data on the New Zealand labor market for the 3rd quarter, the New Zealand currency sharply increased in price during today's Asian session. According to the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand, the unemployment rate in New Zealand fell again in the third quarter, reaching 4.6% compared with 4.8% in the second quarter. Thus, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
Nevertheless, the growth of the NZD / USD pair is likely to be limited in the face of the strengthening US dollar.
Today (at 18:00 GMT) is expected to publish the decision of the Federal Reserve on rates. Most economists believe that the rate will be left at the current level of 1.25%. Attention of investors will be focused on the text of the press release from this meeting of the Fed.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
As a result of the active decline at the end of last month the NZD/USD again reached an important support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860).
Nevertheless, attempted breakdown of this level has not yet been crowned with success. On strong data from the New Zealand labor market for 3Q, published yesterday at the end of the trading day, the New Zealand dollar strengthened, and the NZD / USD pair was able to grow to a short-term resistance level of 0.6915 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The upward correction may extend to the resistance level of 0.7060 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) if the results of the Fed meeting or the choice of a new Fed governor will surprise and the US dollar will weaken on this information.
Only a return to the zone above the resistance levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7280 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will signal on the resumption of the medium-term upward dynamics.
So far, strong downward dynamics are prevailing.
Confirmed breakdown of the support level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the global downtrend.
So far, strong downward dynamics are prevailing.
Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7060, 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7280

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6940. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6940. Stop-Loss 0.6890. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7280



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #122  
Old 02-11-2017, 10:32
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DJIA: financial markets are waiting important events
02/11/2017
Current dynamics

For several days in a row, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range, while maintaining, in general, a positive dynamic.
As it became known, on Saturday Trump stopped on the candidacy of Powell. He is a Republican and since 2010 has been one of the central bank governors, well aware of the Fed's activities "from within". Powell is considered to be a supporter of the actions of the current head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, and is less inclined to aggressively tighten monetary and credit policy than other candidates. In his opinion, the Fed's actions to raise interest rates "should be carried out gradually, while the development of the economic situation in the country roughly corresponds to expectations". The appointment of Powell is likely to mean continuity in the conduct of monetary policy and, perhaps, a slight easing of measures to regulate financial markets.
In addition, the Fed on Wednesday, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, but signaled that it could raise them one more time this year. Until the end of the year, another meeting of the Fed is scheduled, which should be held December 12-13.
"Economic activity is growing at a strong pace, despite the obstacles, made by hurricanes," the Fed said in a statement following the meeting that ended on Wednesday.
Markets with a high degree of confidence expect a rate hike in December.
At the beginning of the European session, the dollar partially recovered from the initial losses, but remained on the negative territory to most other major currencies. Yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2.371% from 2.378% recorded on Wednesday, and investors, just in case, buy gold in case of unforeseen events.
Today investors are waiting for a busy day. The Bank of England is expected to raise the key interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, while Republicans in the United States are preparing to publish a plan for changing the taxation system.
At 12:00 (GMT), the Bank of England's interest rate decision will be published, and at 12:30 the Bank of England head, Mark Carney, will make an explanation of the bank's further plans.
Thus, today, volatility in the financial markets is expected to grow rapidly. Nevertheless, the US stock market is expected to retain a positive momentum. In addition, analysts closely monitor corporate reporting, which many regard as the main driver of the rally in the stock markets this year
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Last month DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the mark 23460.0. Since January 2016 DJIA has been growing steadily. Especially remarkable are the last 8 almost recoilless weeks of growth.
Positive dynamics is maintained, and at the beginning of today's European session, the index is trading near the mark of 23400.0. In case of breakthrough of resistance level 23460.0, DJIA growth will continue until the price "gropes" for new resistance levels.
Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels 22900.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 22720.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The signal to open short positions will be a breakdown of short-term support level of 23340.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
So far, the DJIA index is trading above the key support levels of 21610.0 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after the recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and Fibonacci 0% is near the mark 23460.0), 21460.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), its long-term positive dynamics persists.
Support levels: 23340.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0
Resistance levels: 23460.0

Trading scenarios

Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #123  
Old 02-11-2017, 11:25
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Last edited by TifiaFX; 02-11-2017 at 11:29.
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  #124  
Old 03-11-2017, 11:11
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GBP / USD: on the eve of NFP publication
03/11/2017
Current dynamics

The index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in October was 55.6 (forecast was 53.4, in September PMI for the UK services sector was 53.6). Such data was presented today by the Royal Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics. This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the services sector of the UK and does not have such a strong impact on GDP, as PMI in the manufacturing sector. Despite the strong performance, the pound reacted rather sluggishly to the data presented. Investors continue to assess yesterday's decision by the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the speech of the head of the bank Mark Carney.
As you know, the rate was raised to 0.5% from 0.25%, for the first time in the last 10 years, which was not a surprise. Two of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee David Ramsden and John Cunliffe voted against the decision, remaining dissatisfied with the low growth in the British salaries and the decline in domestic spending. The UK economy is largely oriented to the domestic market, and a weak growth or decrease in domestic consumption costs negatively affects the country's GDP growth.
The minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England also indicated the need for two stages of raising the rate by the same amount until 2020. In response, the rate of the pound and UK government bonds fell. On Thursday, the pound fell to the dollar by 1.4%.
The uncertainty that emerged after the vote for secession from the EU in June 2016 continues to have a negative impact on the country's economy. According to the forecast of the Bank of England, in 2018 and in subsequent years, GDP growth will be 1.7%.
Meanwhile, on Friday, the index of the dollar WSJ, assessing its rate to 16 currencies, grew by 0.1%. Investors continue to assess the details of the Republican project and the appointment of Jerome Powell to the post of head of the Fed.
Today, investors are preparing to publish (at 12:30 GMT) data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in October. This report is a key indicator of the state of the US economy, and favorable data will be taken into account by the Fed in the decision to raise rates at the meeting on December 13. It is expected that the number of jobs (indicator NFP) in October increased by 312,000. In September, for the first time in seven years, there was a decrease in the number of new jobs (by 33,000), which is explained by hurricanes.
If the data is confirmed, the dollar will continue to strengthen. If the data prove to be much weaker, for example, below 150,000 new jobs, the dollar will react with a decline throughout the currency market. In any case, a surge in volatility is expected in the period of publication of data from the labor market. Often there is a sharp jump in the dollar in one direction and no less sharp subsequent rollback. Many traders in the US call the day of publication of data on the labor market "pay day".
Also, important US macro data (business activity indices in the services sector and production orders) will be published at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT), which can become a generator of either a rollback after a strong movement on the NFP, or an incentive to strengthen the dollar's movement to the same side.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3030. Stop-Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop-Loss 1.3030. Take-Profit 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3740, 1.3970, 1.4100



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #125  
Old 07-11-2017, 10:59
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NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
07/11/2017
Current dynamics

Yesterday, the New Zealand dollar received support after New Zealand's finance minister Grant Robertson said he did not want to include targeting of the national currency in the new responsibilities of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
As it became known, the new government of New Zealand intends to new evaluate the policy of the RBNZ. At the first stage, changes will be recommended to the RBNZ policy aimed at increasing employment in New Zealand, and changes will be offered regarding the RBNZ leadership. Decisions in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, while the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
It is still not clear how the planned changes in the activities of the RBNZ will affect the quotations of the New Zealand currency. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
A survey of business circles conducted last week in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The last two weeks there has been a recovery of the New Zealand dollar, which became the leader of the fall last month after the results of the general elections in New Zealand, held at the end of September, became known.
Nevertheless, the growth of the NZD/USD is likely to be limited in the face of the strengthening US dollar and, therefore, the decline in commodity prices and the quotations of commodity currencies, which include the New Zealand dollar.
The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market as against the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against the background of the appointment of a new Fed governor, who will take office in February next year. According to some economists, under the leadership of the new head of the Fed can raise rates not three, but four times in 2018. It is assumed that at the next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12-13, the interest rate will be increased by 0.25%. In the future, the Fed may raise the rate quarterly, starting in March 2018.
Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the further reduction of the NZD / USD.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -1% (against the previous value of -2.4%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, therefore, a decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6970. Stop-Loss 0.6890. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7140, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #126  
Old 08-11-2017, 11:10
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Brent: prices remain on mid-2015 highs
08/11/2017
Current dynamics

Quotations of oil futures fell on Tuesday, however, they remained on the mid-2015 highs. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.53%, to 63.35 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 63.55 dollars per barrel after the day before the price reached the high of 2017 near the mark of 64.45 dollars per barrel.
Oil prices at the beginning of the week rose to their highest levels since 2015 due to the fact that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrest of more than 50 people on suspicion of corruption, including members of the royal family, ministers and big businessmen.
Oil prices also received support after Yemeni hussites rebels launched a ballistic missile in the vicinity of Riyadh, which was shot down in the vicinity of the capital. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which supports the hussites, intensified. Both countries are members of OPEC.
Investors are concerned that the power struggle in Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, brings uncertainty to the market, and numerous conflicts in the Middle East can lead to disruptions in oil supplies.
Also, the rise in prices is fueled by the expectation that at the November meeting, OPEC will extend the deal. As you know, last year, OPEC and other oil exporters, including Russia, entered into an agreement to reduce total production by 1.8 million barrels a day. In Vienna on November 30, OPEC will hold a meeting, within which the extension of the agreement on the reduction of production, which expires in March 2018, will be discussed.
Today, traders are waiting for data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. The weekly EIA report will be published at 15.30 (GMT).
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories fell 1.6 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 520,000 barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 3.1 million barrels, according to the API report.
There is a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. The next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side. Long positions are preferred.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 62.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #127  
Old 09-11-2017, 11:26
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XAU/USD: demand for safe assets increased
09/11/2017
Current dynamics

Mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, including members of the royal family, a missile attack on this country by Yemeni rebels, as well as the appearance of risks of slipping in the implementation of the plans of the presidential administration for tax reform, provoked purchase of gold as a safe haven.
December gold futures on COMEX finished trading on Wednesday with an increase of 0.6%, at $ 1,283.70 per troy ounce.
Reports in the press that the US Republican Party can make changes to its tax reform plan or postpone it for a year, provoked a decline in quotations of the dollar. Some economists believe that tax reform can spur the growth of the US economy and allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Expectations for raising rates tend to put pressure on gold, which can not compete with more profitable assets with rising borrowing costs.
Under conditions of a soft monetary policy in the US and against the backdrop of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, the price of gold, as a rule, is growing.
As a result, gold prices on Wednesday closed at 2-week highs, and with the opening of today's trading day quotes on it are rising again.
So, the spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 1284.00 dollars per troy ounce.
Of the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 13:30 (GMT) of weekly data on the labor market (number of applications for unemployment benefits) for the United States. According to the forecast, a slight increase in the indicator is expected - up to 231,000 versus 229,000 for the previous period. However, this figure remains below 300,000 for almost 140 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period since 1970. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong US labor market.
The stable state of the labor market in the US and the low level of unemployment (just above 4%) is a powerful argument for the Fed in considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the US. And this is a downward factor for the price of gold.
According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in about 97%.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, making an attempt to gain a foothold above the short-term resistance level at 1283.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Through the mark of 1283.00 also passes the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart.
If the price is fixed above the local resistance level of 1287.00 (weekly highs), risk of the returning XAU/USD to the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%) grows.
The reverse scenario involves a breakdown of the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the drop in the wave from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decline to support levels of 1267.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the XAU/USD returning to the downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly, monthly charts went to the side of sellers.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1283.00, 1287.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1281.00. Stop-Loss 1286.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1286.00. Stop-Loss 1281.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #128  
Old 10-11-2017, 11:53
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AUD/USD: RBA is in indecision
10/11/2017
Overview and dynamics

After earlier in the week the leadership of the RBA again decided to leave the key rate at 1.5%, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. The rate remains at this level since August 2016, and the central bank will most likely leave it unchanged until mid-2018.
The longer the RBA will remain idle, while many central banks raise interest rates, the stronger the Australian dollar will fall.
Despite the fact that Australian economic data draws a contradictory picture, the RBA is confident in accelerating GDP growth over time. In the coming years, the central bank expects to accelerate the annual GDP growth to 3%, which is almost double the current rate. The Australian economy for the current year has created more than a million jobs, which led to a drop in unemployment. At the same time, indicators of conditions for doing business and business confidence have peaked in the last ten years.
On the other hand, inflation data for the 3rd quarter were not particularly impressive. Core inflation, according to the RBA, will not reach the lower end of the target range of 2% -3% until mid-2019. Retail sales in the middle of the year fell sharply, and a slowdown in house prices could undermine consumer confidence.
Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is in a difficult situation. It can not raise interest rates with weak inflation and high levels of consumer debt, but it can not reduce them because of fears of increasing risks of destabilizing the financial system.
Many economists believe that the RBA will return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the country not earlier than mid-2019.
And this, amid a large-scale strengthening of the US dollar due to the expectations of a phased tightening of monetary policy in the US, creates the conditions for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.
Support levels: 0.7650, 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7720, 0.7755, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7720, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #129  
Old 13-11-2017, 12:51
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Brent: Support and resistance levels
13/11/2017


There remains a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. If growth continues, the next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers side. Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short positions is possible after the return of the price under the support level of 62.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal is the support level of 59.30 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
And only if the price returns to the level of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 62.90, 62.35, 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 59.30, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 62.30. Stop-Loss 64.50. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 64.50. Stop-Loss 62.30. Take-Profit 65.00, 65.30, 66.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #130  
Old 14-11-2017, 11:48
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GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly
14/11/2017
Current dynamics

After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.
According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.
Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.
Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.
This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.
Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.
At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100



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  #131  
Old 15-11-2017, 11:43
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AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
15/11/2017
Current dynamics

Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980




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  #132  
Old 16-11-2017, 12:07
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GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the range
16/11/2017
Current dynamics

Unexpectedly grown in October, retail sales have supported the British currency.
According to data published on Thursday, retail sales in the UK increased 0.3% in October (the forecast was + 0.1%). In September, as compared to August, sales decreased by 0.7%. It is noteworthy that the most significant increase in October was the sale of second-hand items. Whether the British are moving to a more economical regime due to the weakening of the pound against the background of rising inflation, whether the residents of the UK have grown interested in antiques in terms of its historical value, which, on the contrary, indicates an increase in their welfare. However, compared to October last year, retail sales for the first time since early 2013 decreased (by 0.3%).
This year, the growth of the UK economy slowed significantly, as consumer expenses are under pressure exerted by inflation accelerated as a result of the fall of the pound after voting for an exit from the EU.
Last week, the European Commission lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit.
The statistics presented on Tuesday showed that inflation in the UK in October, as in September, rose to 3.0%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than salaries, which mean that consumer spending will remain low-key. This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure, even though at the beginning of the month the Bank of England raised its interest rate due to a galloping inflation after the referendum on Brexit. Investors do not believe in the possibility of accelerating the growth of the British economy, as evidenced by the fall, the second week, in a row of the British stock index FTSE. And in the leaders of the fall are shares of British companies that build their business inside the country.
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly said that the central bank will monitor how the economy reacts to the rate hike in November. It is likely that the Bank of England will not raise rates again in the near future, given the uncertainty associated with Brexit.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is restoring its positions today in the foreign exchange market. Macroeconomic indicators remain positive, and growth continues in the corporate sector of the US economy.
Today, the US House of Representatives must pass a vote on the tax bill. Investors will closely monitor the results of voting. Any delay or reduction in the scale of tax cuts can damage to the dollar.
Also today we are waiting for the publication of important macro statistics from the USA. Among the data - primary applications for unemployment (changes in the number of applications for the past week), indices of import / export prices for October, the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for October. If the US strong macro statistics comes out, the dollar will continue to recover.
The publication of the data is scheduled for 13:30, 14:15 (GMT), and at 14:00, 14:10, 14:30, 17:30, speeches of the representatives of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will begin, which again may cause volatility in the pound trade and the dollar, if they touch upon the subject of monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3220. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3220. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




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  #133  
Old 17-11-2017, 12:10
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Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
17/11/2017
Current dynamics

The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00



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  #134  
Old 20-11-2017, 12:19
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GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
20/11/2017
Current dynamics

Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100




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  #135  
Old 21-11-2017, 10:51
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NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
21/11/2017
Current dynamics

The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100




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  #136  
Old 22-11-2017, 12:29
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S&P500: major indexes have updated highs
22/11/2017
Current dynamics

World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.
The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.
Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.
Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.
On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.
Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.
Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.
"We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.
Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.
As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a gradual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.
Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0



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  #137  
Old 23-11-2017, 11:45
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USD/CHF: the dollar shows a large-scale decline
23/11/2017
Current dynamics

After yesterday (19:00 GMT) minutes from the November meeting of the Fed were published, the dollar collapsed throughout the currency market. Although, in general, the protocols continued to testify to the Fed's commitment to further tightening monetary policy, there was something new in the rhetoric of the Fed's statements, which alarmed investors. Fed executives said that interest rates in December will be increased by 0.25%, however, they are not sure about the reasons for maintaining sluggish inflation. This, according to investors, can slow down the pace of monetary tightening in the coming year.
The uncertainty about the Fed's leadership regarding the inflation forecast calls into question the vigorous pace of tightening monetary policy in the US. Earlier, it was announced about 3, and according to some information, 4 rate increases in 2018, starting already in March.
As a result, yesterday the index of the dollar WSJ fell by 0.8% after the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and today the decline in the dollar continues against the backdrop of low trading volumes. The US and Japanese stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the holidays.
On the Eurozone today, positive macro statistics emerged, which caused the euro to rise, including against the dollar, provoking additional pressure on the dollar.
The dollar fell strongly against safe haven assets, such as gold, yen, franc. Concerning the dynamics of the franc, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan, scheduled for today (16:30 GMT).
The Swiss National Bank is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, trying to disperse inflation in the country and supporting Swiss producers supplying their products for export. To disperse inflation, which is at a record low 0.7%, and lower, the NBS prints huge amounts of francs and uses them to buy foreign shares and bonds. From Thomas Jordan, traders will be waiting for signals about further plans for monetary policy of the National Bank. If he again traditionally declares his adherence to the course of the central bank, then the franc can react with a decrease, including against the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

The negative dynamics is prevailing.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9800, the targets for the decline will be support levels of 0.9775 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9730 (EMA144, EMA200, bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9840. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9840. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



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  #138  
Old 24-11-2017, 11:24
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EUR/USD: The dollar is recovering, but continues to decline against the euro
24/11/2017
Current dynamics

The third day, the EUR / USD is growing and at the beginning of today's European session again reached the level of 1.1875 (last month's highs). The growth of the pair is facilitated by the sharp weakening of the dollar after the publication of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed, and the strengthening of the euro against the background of positive macro data on the Eurozone, published on Thursday and Friday.
Today we received information about the growth of business optimism in Germany in November.
The German IFO index reached a new record high of 117.5 (against the forecast of 116.6 and 116.8 in October), the index of expectations in Germany rose to 111.0 in November (against the forecast of 108.9 and 109.2 last month).
The economy of Germany, which is the leading economy of the Eurozone, ranked 4th in the world in terms of GDP, is moving towards a boom. Among the leaders of the Fed there is uncertainty about the rate of inflation, which may somewhat reduce investors' optimism about future increases in rates in the US. At the same time, in the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, it was said about the proposal of some leaders in the guidelines for the future policy of the ECB - not to link the quantitative easing program to the steady growth of inflation.
According to economists, this is a key factor, since it "implies the possibility of completing the program for the purchase of assets in 2018, even if there are no clear signs of accelerating inflation."
The dollar is now attempting to recover from a large-scale decline the day before and is rising against commodity currencies and the yen. Nevertheless, the dollar is falling against the euro.
A number of positive macro data on the Eurozone, received in the last two days, more than offset political uncertainty in Germany, where the ruling conservative party of Angela Merkel, was in the minority after the German chancellor failed to form a coalition with other opposition parties.
In the US today, a shorter working day after Thanksgiving and in view of "Black Friday", when the Christmas sales period starts, and in retail trade huge discounts.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the US, when at 14:45 (GMT) the indexes of business activity in various sectors of the US economy for November will be published, as well as the composite PMI index. The growth of indicators with values above 50 is expected, which is seen as evidence of economic growth.
If the indices are above the forecast values, the dollar will continue to recover. In the second half of the US trading session, the activity of traders will decline, and the volume of trading will be insignificant.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are on the buyers side. Positive dynamics persists. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a downward correction is also high, if strong macro data comes from the US (at 14:45 GMT).
Support levels: 1.1848, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1840. Stop-Loss 1.1885. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285
Buy Stop 1.1885. Stop-Loss 1.1840. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



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  #139  
Old 27-11-2017, 12:02
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Brent: on the eve of the OPEC meeting
27/11/2017
Current dynamics

The large-scale weakening of the dollar is reflected not only in the financial markets, but also in the commodity market, including the oil market.
Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive month. During today's Asian session, the price of Brent crude slightly decreased. Futures for Brent crude fell down in price by 0.02%, to 63.85 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to $ 63.20 per barrel, which is about 0.14 dollars lower than the opening price of today's trading day.
Nevertheless, the positive dynamics persists. This week the market will wait for the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the further fate of the production reduction deal.
The meeting of OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel, including Russia, will be held on Thursday in Vienna. Participants will hope for an extension of the agreements to reduce oil production to the end of 2018.
If there is no extension of the deal, then this can alert investors, and the prices in this case may drop sharply.
In the event of a positive outcome of the meeting and the extension of the deal, prices may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and go up to the area of $ 70.
As the oil minister of the UAE said earlier this month, "there is the potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the excess in the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement", the minister added.
Saudi Arabia is extremely interested in higher world oil prices for a more profitable IPO of state-owned company Saudi Aramco, which is the largest oil company in the world.
An upward trend in oil prices may also be linked to the risks of a possible production disruption in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, the negative impact on prices will be provided by the growing production of shale oil in the US, which will create a new inflow of oil to the market.
After a decline in recent months due to hurricanes over the US, the number of oil rigs in the US increased by nine units last week to 747 units, according to Baker Hughes. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). So, American oil companies still have a significant prospect for growth and increase in production. This will become one of the main negative factors. However, further price increases, perhaps, can not be avoided if the agreement to reduce production on Thursday will be extended.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

So far, a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force, and long positions are preferred.
Support levels: 62.90, 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00




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  #140  
Old 28-11-2017, 11:56
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USD/JPY: The dollar is trying to recover
28/11/2017
Current dynamics

"I think that the agreement (between the government and the Bank of Japan on the target inflation rate of 2%) remains in force, and I do not see any need to change anything", Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today in a speech to members of the parliamentary committee. "I expect that the Bank of Japan will adhere to the mitigation policy in order to achieve the target level of inflation", he said. At the meeting of the same parliamentary committee, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in support of the current soft monetary policy.
These statements were made at a time when market participants expect that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest-rate targets in the near future to ease the collateral effect of the aggressive easing of monetary policy.
This has become one of the factors of strengthening the yen, including against the dollar, this month.
Expectations for changes in the direction of extra soft policy of the Bank of Japan stopped this month the growth of the Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 18%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. Nikkei Stock Average reached a peak this month near the mark of 23400.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies and the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party in the parliamentary elections held in Japan last month. Nikkei Stock Average set a record for the duration of continuous growth (8 consecutive weeks). However, the index subsequently declined amid expectations of a change in the policy of quantitative and qualitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the yen, while other major central world banks made statements that showed the possibility of a gradual tightening of their monetary policies.
Stopping the growth of the Japanese stock market, apparently, has alarmed the monetary authorities of Japan. And today Abe and Kuroda tried to dispel doubts of investors in the commitment of the Bank of Japan to the former soft policy.
The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on December 21. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and " take additional mitigation measures, if necessary ".
At the same time, the dollar is now recovering in the foreign exchange market and continues to grow during the European session, interrupting the drop observed within 4 days after the publication of the minutes from the November meeting of the Fed.
On Monday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, spoke in favor of raising rates "in the near future", in part because of concerns over the economy's overheating.
Today, the dollar also was supported by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, who said that the economy is close to achieving full employment. Dudley reiterated his view that low inflation with low unemployment - "not really bad" and expressed support for a gradual rate hike.
Investors are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate today. "We expect that interest rates will grow a little more, and the amount of the balance will gradually decrease", says the text of his speech, which will begin at 14:44 (GMT).
It is likely that Powell will support the Fed's plan to further raise the rate, which will provide short-term (1-2 days) support to the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 110.80, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Levels of resistance: 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 110.70. Take-Profit 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40
Sell Stop 110.70. Stop Loss 111.70. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



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  #141  
Old 29-11-2017, 11:50
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DJIA: indexes updated recent absolute highs
29/11/2017
Current dynamics

After yesterday, the main US stock indexes updated the absolute highs, today the indices are traded in a narrow range, maintaining a positive momentum.
It is likely that the news that North Korea has launched another ballistic missile, which, according to the leadership of North Korea, can reach any point of the United States, kept the markets from continuing growth. Experts confirmed that the launched missile had a higher trajectory. This launch may once again intensify tensions in the region and worsen the country's relations with the United States.
So far, investors' reaction to this news has been rather low-key. It is likely that they are waiting for a reaction from the administration of the US President. If aggressive statements follow, investors can again begin to withdraw funds into safe assets and sell some of the high-risk assets of the stock market. The tougher the statements from the US president, the stronger the stock markets can "shake".
If the reaction from the administration of the US president does not follow, then the growth in US stock exchanges will continue.
Investors continue to analyze positive economic data from the US, as well as information that the US Senate Budget Committee voted on Tuesday to adopt a tax bill proposed by Republicans.
Now we can assume that the bill will be approved on Thursday, when it will be put to the vote in the Senate. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill.
At the same time, investors drew attention to the positive macro data received from the US on Tuesday. The index of consumer confidence in the US (according to the Conference Board version) rose in November to a new high for 17 years and amounted to 129.5 against 126.2 in October. The national housing price index in the USA increased by 6.2% in September (against + 5.9% in August) compared to the same period of the previous year, showing the fastest annual growth since June 2014. The growth of the production index (according to the Fed-Richmond data) was 30 in November (against 12 in October), the highest level since 1993.
The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.338% from 1.328% on Monday.
As a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said yesterday during a hearing in the banking committee of the Senate, the Fed may move toward "normalizing interest rates". In his opinion, "if to wait too long for an increase in rates, the economy may overheat". Powell also suggested that US GDP growth in 2018 will be 2% -2.5%, and the unemployment rate will drop below 4%.
The data show that the growth of the US economy is accelerating towards the end of the year. Now investors are trying to understand how aggressively the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates in the next year. The higher cost of borrowing makes the dollar and US assets more attractive for purchases.
Today, again, the rapid growth of volatility in the financial markets is expected during the American session, when important macro statistics from the United States begin to arrive, and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT) and FOMC member San Francisco FRB John Williams (at 17:45) start speeches.
If the data presented (GDP for the 3rd quarter (preliminary release), as well as the inflation index of spending on personal consumption of Americans) coincides with positive forecasts or will be stronger (3.2% GDP is expected to grow against 3.0% in the second quarter), then the dollar and US stock indices will react with growth.
At 19:00 (GMT) "Beige Book" with an economic review of the Fed the current situation in the US economy will be published.
The US stock market is expected to retain positive dynamics in the short term, if unexpected extraordinary events of a geopolitical scale do not follow.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0
Resistance levels: 23900.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 23780.0. Take-Profit 23900.0, 24000.0, 24100.0
Sell Stop 23780.0. Stop-Loss 23910.0. Take-Profit 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0



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  #142  
Old 30-11-2017, 11:05
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EUR/USD: amid positive US macro data
30/11/2017
Current dynamics

According to the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of the production of goods and services in the economy, increased by 3.3% per annum in the third quarter (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 3.1% quarter).
This growth was the strongest in three years.
Federal Reserve manager Jerome Powell, who was nominated by US President Donald Trump as chairman to replace Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday at a Senate hearing that he expects GDP growth in 2017 to be 2.5%.
The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, after the release of data on US GDP on Wednesday rose to 2.385% from the level of 2.338% recorded on Tuesday.
"I believe that there are conditions for raising interest rates at the next meeting", Powell told lawmakers. The next meeting of the Fed is scheduled for December 12-13. Almost with 100% certainty, investors expect an increase in the key rate in December by 0.25%, which is currently in the range of 1% -1.25%.
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FOMC member John Williams on Wednesday also called for higher rates.
"As long as the data continues to indicate stable growth, and we see such an increase in inflation as we expect, we, in my personal view, should continue to slowly increase interest rates next year. If we do not return interest rates to more normal levels, we risk undermining steady growth and create conditions that could lead to a recession in the future", he said.
In a report published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve System, known as the "Beige Book", it is said that economic activity in the country has increased "from modest to moderate" in recent weeks amid signs of rising prices and the continued strengthening of the labor market.
And yet, the dollar's growth on Wednesday turned out to be restrained, and on Thursday the dollar traded in different directions from the opening of the trading day and during the Asian session, declining against the euro and the pound. Apparently, several important factors do not allow the dollar to move into a more aggressive offensive.
Earlier in the week, the Budget Committee of the US Senate approved the republican bill of tax reform. On Thursday, a vote on this bill in the Senate should take place. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill. And yet, there is a certain share of the risk for investors who are betting on the further growth of the dollar, if the bill is not adopted today in the Senate.
Disagreements among the leaders of the Fed on the pace and need to raise rates in 2018, which became clear from the previously published protocols from the November meeting of the Fed, also impose a negative imprint on the dynamics of the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the European session EUR / USD resumed its decline. This was facilitated by statistical data, published at 10:00 (GMT) and indicated that the rate of inflation in the Eurozone in November remained low.
The annual preliminary consumer price index (CPI) of the Eurozone in November is + 1.5% (against + 1.4% in October and + 1.6% according to the forecast). The unemployment data in the Eurozone, which declined to 8.8% in November (against 8.9% in the forecast and last month), slightly brighten the negative picture.
The EUR / USD could not develop the upward momentum and gain a foothold above the resistance level at 1.1875 (last month's highs). Breakdown of resistance level 1.1900 would determine its further growth.
EUR / USD broke the short-term support level 1.1837 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart) and is down to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 year in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900, as well as EMA144, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The break of this level will call into question the further growth of EUR / USD, and the medium-term reduction targets will be the support levels 1.1640 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA144), 1.1490 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1837, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1880. Take-Profit 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490
Buy Stop 1.1880. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



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  #143  
Old 01-12-2017, 12:38
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GBP/USD: pound declines despite strong macro data
01/12/2017
Current dynamics


According to data provided today by IHS Markit Ltd., the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector rose to 58.2 in November (the previous estimate was 56.6, the forecast was 56.5). Thus, the November figure was the highest in 51 months.
This indicator assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector in the UK and is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall state of the country's economy. The manufacturing sector, the second most important in the UK after the services sector, forms a significant part of the final UK GDP. The value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, and below - to reduce it. Steady growth in activity in the UK manufacturing sector contributes to the recovery of the British economy as a whole.
This is a good sign for investors who put on the rise of pound and restoring of the British economy after the collapse of the pound after Brexit. And, nevertheless, the pound ignored the strong PMI for the manufacturing sector and continued the decline that began during the Asian session.
This week, the pound was supported by the news of progress in the negotiations on Brexit, although negotiations are still going on. Great Britain has increased the amount it is willing to pay for withdrawing from the European Union. The parties came to a preliminary agreement on the payment by the UK for the exit from the EU from 40 to 55 billion euros.
However, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland threatens to give up support for the UK-based coalition if conditions for Northern Ireland differ from those for the rest of the country. The reminiscing about itself and the once again manifested uncertainty around Brexit halted the almost non-stop 4-week growth of the pound and the GBP / USD pair.
At the same time, the dollar also suspended its ascent after yesterday's vote in the Senate on the tax bill of the Republicans was postponed.
It turned out that the US budget deficit will increase by 1 trillion dollars within 10 years, if the proposed plan is adopted. Reducing the tax from US companies to 20% from the current 35% was the main point of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump. This promised to accelerate economic growth and inflation.
Thus, today in the foreign exchange market there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar.
At 15:00 (GMT) will be published important macro indicators for the United States. Among them - the index of business activity ISM (for November) in the manufacturing sector, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, the index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM for November, which assesses the state of the US industrial sector and the mood of business representatives regarding inflation. A relative decrease in indicators is expected, although, in general, indicators will remain well above the value of 50, which indicates the growth of this sector of the US economy.
Also during the American trading session (at 14:05, 14:30, 15:15 GMT) a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis James Bullard, the executive director of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Stephen Kaplan, the head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Patrick Harker, will speak. At this time (from 14:05 to 15:15) the volatility of trades will grow not only in terms of the dollar, but also in the American stock market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055
Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



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  #144  
Old 04-12-2017, 11:31
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Brent: despite the decline, the upward trend is prevailing
04/12/2017
Current dynamics

Last week in Vienna, OPEC, Russia and a number of other major oil-producing countries agreed to further reduce oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day, or about 2% of global oil production.
The deal was extended until the end of 2018. The task of rebalancing the market has not yet been fulfilled, according to representatives of the countries participating in the meeting, which together control about 60% of world oil production.
"We need to wait for the exact rate of reduction (stocks) in the second quarter, and we will consider them at the June meeting. We expect that unless something unexpected happens, we will not change our course in the second half of the year", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said in Riyadh today.
At the same time, American oil companies will make their own decisions, Al-Falih said. The US can work in the existing parameters, according to Al-Falih.
Nevertheless, the proposal from the United States and other countries not participating in the deal will continue to grow. Now that the OPEC agreement on production cuts has been extended, the market will become dependent on oil production data, as well as sensitive to the dynamics of the dollar.
So, today in Asia quotations of oil futures fell against the background of the strengthening of the dollar. Prices lost some of the positions won at the end of last week.
February futures for Brent crude oil fell 0.47%, to 63.43 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 63.20, which is $ 0.3 per barrel less than the opening price of today's trading day.
The dollar received good support today after it became known on Saturday about the adoption of the US Senate tax bill. It provides for a reduction of the tax from companies to 20% from 35%, which should stimulate the growth of the US economy and the dollar in the long term.
Some pressure on oil prices was also provided by a report on Friday from the American oil service company Baker Hughes that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 units last week to 749 units after growing 9 units earlier two weeks ago. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). US oil producers still have a significant prospect for the production growth. Especially, the growth of oil production in the US will be stimulated by the extended OPEC deal and high oil prices. This, along with the growth of the dollar, will become one of the main constraints to the growth of oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance levels
From the end of June, Brent crude oil is traded in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 67.00 dollars per barrel mark.
The price remains above the key support level of 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), and in case of resumption of growth the nearest target will be a local resistance level of 64.50 (November highs). Growth above the level of 65.00 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.00 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00. According to optimistic forecasts, the price may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and rise to the area of $ 70.00.
Support levels: 62.90, 62.00, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 63.50, 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00



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  #145  
Old 05-12-2017, 11:35
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AUD/USD: The RBA kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5%
05/12/2017
Current dynamics

During today's Asian trading session, the Australian dollar was growing.
First, it rose against the background of more positive than expected retail sales figures for October. According to the data, retail sales in October in Australia increased by 0.5%, exceeding expectations. In September, the indicator grew only by 0.1%, and in August and July, retail sales in Australia decreased by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.
Then, the Australian dollar received support from positive data from China, according to which activity in the services sector of China in November grew at a faster pace. The index of supply managers (PMI) for the service sector of China, calculated by Caixin Media Co. and research company Markit, in November it increased to 51.9 against 51.2 in October.
Later (at 03:30 GMT), the RBA decision was published, according to which the interest rate was saved at the current level of 1.5%. This RBA decision was expected, and it did not make a strong impression on market participants. The Australian dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBA.
In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".
RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time".
Contradictory economic indicators (record low wage growth rate, surplus labor market resources and weak inflationary pressures) contribute to the cautious approach of RBA leaders towards monetary policy. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged.
At the same time, strong macro data and positive news on the success of the presidential administration in promoting tax reform continue to flow from the US. This will accelerate economic growth in the country and increase inflation. This, in turn, will allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which will increase the attractiveness of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.
Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.
From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:45 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the service sector (PMI), which is an indicator of the state of the services sector in the US economy. According to the forecast, a slight decrease is expected after a strong growth in October (59.0 versus 60.1 in October). Nevertheless, the result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the US dollar. It is likely that the decline in the US dollar, if the data will be weaker than the forecast values, will be short-term in nature.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts are on the buyers side. Therefore, if the resistance level of 0.7655 breaks, the AUD / USD growth will continue to the resistance level of 0.7695 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the downward dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7655, 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7665. Take-Profit 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7665. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950



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  #146  
Old 05-12-2017, 15:46
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Christmas: it’s time to make presents!
Wishing you a merry Christmas and happy New Year, we have already prepared some presents for you!


Each account in which at least $100 will be paid in the period from 01.12.2017 to 24.12.2017 will automatically participate in our promotion “Christmas Giveaway”. To get a prize, you only need to make a deposit of $100 or more and trade in your account.
On Christmas Eve, 24th December 2017, the following prizes will be raffled:
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  #147  
Old 06-12-2017, 11:19
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USD/CAD: the meeting of the Bank of Canada
06/12/2017
Current dynamics

In the focus of attention of traders today will be the meeting of the Bank of Canada and publication of the decision on the interest rate. Bank of Canada twice this year raised rates - in July and September. Inflation remains below the target level of 2%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz noted earlier that the target range for inflation is 1% -3%, and said that the decline in the Canadian dollar will support exports. The Central Bank does not promise that the next step will be in favor of a rate hike, but the statement of the Bank of Canada says that it will closely monitor the level of household debt, and will decide in which direction the next change in monetary policy will be.
The decision to raise the rate was motivated by the desire to somewhat stabilize the monetary policy in the country against the background of rising oil prices after a series of lowering rates after the crisis in 2008.
It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the current level of 1.0%. The growth of the Canadian economy slowed in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, GDP grew only by 1.7% (after growth of 4.2% in 2Q). According to economists, the Bank of Canada will not change the interest rate until the second half of 2018 to wait for clearer signals about the economic recovery, despite the strong labor market in the country.
At the same time, the Fed intends to continue tightening monetary policy. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Canada will be the most important factor in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CAD.
On the other hand, unexpected solutions are not excluded. As the recent events have shown, the Bank of Canada is able to surprise the markets. This applies, in particular, to unexpected increases in rates in July and September, despite the low inflation in Canada.
If today the rate is also raised, then the Canadian dollar will be sharply strengthened.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
On strong data from the Canadian labor market published on Friday, the pair USD / CAD broke through the important support levels 1.2835 (EMA200), 1.2770 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascendant trend from September 2012 and 0.9700 mark), 1.2715 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and again tries to return in to the descending channel on the weekly chart, trading just below its upper limit at the beginning of today's European session.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts have deployed to short positions, signaling a possible resumption of the downtrend.
So far, the downward trend is prevailing.
In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2620, the target for further reduction will be the support level 1.2500 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of the support level at 1.2430 will completely return the USD / CAD pair to the downtrend and send it (within the downward channel on the weekly chart) to support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2050 (2017 low).
The long-term goal of the decline is support level 1.1590 (Fibonacci level 61.8% and the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
The signal for the resumption of growth will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.2740. A break of resistance level 1.2900 will return the pair USD / CAD to the upward global trend, which began in September 2012.
Support levels: 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Buy Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900



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  #148  
Old 07-12-2017, 12:03
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XAU/USD: The dollar is stable against the backdrop of new signs of strengthening the labor market
07/12/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to bargain with the rise after it rose on Wednesday amid new signs of strengthening the labor market in the US. The ADP report, based on data from private companies, as well as on government data, pointed to a 190,000 increase in jobs in the private sector in the United States (the forecast was +175,000).
Hopes for signing the law on tax reform also support the US dollar. Earlier it became known that on Saturday the Senate passed a bill providing for lowering the tax from companies to 20% from 35%. This victory of Republicans and the administration of Donald Trump promises to give a new impetus to the US economy and accelerate the growth of inflation, which will allow the Fed to tighten its monetary policy more confidently.
Despite disagreements between legislators, it is very likely that the final bill on tax reform will appear before the end of this year. And this, of course, is a strong fundamental factor for the growth of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.
This, in turn, encourages investors to withdraw funds from safe assets, directing them to purchase higher-yield assets.
Today we are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 2,000 and amounted to 240,000. Despite the small increase, the number of unemployed has remained at the lowest level since 1973, and initial claims for benefits are kept below the mark in 300 000 for more than 2.5 years. This is the longest series since 1970. Employers will have to raise salaries to retain or attract employees, which will lead to an increase in personal incomes, correspondingly, expenditures and a gradual acceleration of inflation.
And this is a downgrade factor for gold prices, as in the case of rising inflation rates increase becomes more real event. The cost of acquiring and storing gold in this case will grow.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
The XAU / USD declines for the third day in a row, breaking through the important support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1269.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The next target of the decline will be the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
A break of this level could provoke further weakening of the pair XAU / USD and a return to the global downtrend that began in October 2012.
An alternative scenario involves a weakening of the dollar and a return of XAU / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1280.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
Meanwhile, against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, negative dynamics of XAU/USD predominate.
Support levels: 1250.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1260.00, 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00, 1312.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1250.00, 1248.00, 1240.00
Buy Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00



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  #149  
Old 08-12-2017, 11:42
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GBP/USD: pound grows on breakthrough in Brexit talks
08/12/2017
Current dynamics

The pound continues to trade stably ahead of the publication (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market, including against the dollar. Strong data are expected: the increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy amounted to 200,000 in November (after an increase of 261,000 new seats in October), the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (after rising in October 0%), unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.
It is likely that the dollar will strengthen in response to the publication of strong data.
This is the latest important macro data before the Fed meeting next week (December 12 - 13). If labor market data comes out, as predicted, with strong values, then there will be no last doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. And, although this increase, by and large, is already taken into account in prices, strong macro data creates the basis for further rate increases. And this is a strong fundamental factor for the further growth of the dollar.
The optimism of investors regarding the prospects for the US economy has increased. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to 87.25.
In anticipation of the publication of strong data from the labor market, the dollar is growing in price against major competitor currencies, including against safe assets, the yen, the franc, and gold. The exception is, perhaps, only the pound, which maintains positive dynamics, including in the GBP / USD.
Today, the pound received additional support after the results of the talks of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with the prime ministers of Ireland and Great Britain became known.
British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the UK and the EU reached an agreement under Brexit terms. Now, after six months of tense negotiations, the way to discussing the trade agreement has been opened. "I believe that we have reached the necessary breakthrough", Juncker said. The agreement on the conditions for the exit of the UK from the EU, which include financial conditions, the conditions for the stay of EU citizens in the UK, and the settlement of the border problem with Ireland, means that EU representatives are now likely to agree to further negotiations.
If at the meeting in Brussels on December 14-15 the leaders of the EU countries approve the agreement, then negotiations on further UK trade agreements with the EU and conditions for a transition period may begin in the next few weeks. The UK exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The trade agreement can be signed only after the UK leaves the bloc.
The pound also gets support from positive macro statistics on the UK, coming in recently.
According to official data released on Friday, manufacturing production in October increased by 0.1% compared to September, and by 3.9% compared to October last year.
Industrial production in the UK for the first time in history grew in October for the sixth consecutive month.
Contrary to the gloomy forecasts of economists, the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit, and British producers are supported by weakening the pound and strong external demand. The manufacturing sector accounts for about one-fifth of the country's economy, mainly based on services and the domestic market. In general, industrial production in the UK in October compared with October last year increased by 3.6%, which is slightly higher than the forecast.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3440. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075
Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3440. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050




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  #150  
Old 11-12-2017, 11:57
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S&P500: major indices retain positive dynamics
11/12/2017
Current dynamics

Major US stock indices on Monday remain positive dynamics, stably bargaining on eve of the Fed meeting scheduled for December 12-13. On Friday, US indices rose and recorded growth in the past week against the background of the restoration of shares of technology companies and more favorable than expected, the report on the US labor market. As you know, the report of the US Department of Labor pointed to an increase of 228,000 new jobs (with a forecast of +200,000). Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%. The picture was somewhat spoiled by the index of the average hourly earnings, which in November was less than the forecast and amounted to 0.2% (the forecast was 0.3%).
This week, important decisions of three other leading central banks in the world and fresh data on inflation are expected. On December 14, sessions of the NBS, the Bank of England and the ECB are scheduled. As unforeseen decisions of central banks are not expected, the most interesting are the forecasts of inflation and economic development.
It is widely expected that the Fed at its meeting will decide to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.50% (publication of the decision on the rates is scheduled for 19:00 (GMT) on Wednesday). Investors, basically, have already considered this increase in prices, and their attention will be riveted to the report of the Fed with forecasts on inflation and economic growth, as well as the views of FOMC members regarding further plans for monetary policy.
Probably, the Fed will adhere to current plans, according to which it intends to gradually raise rates three more times in 2018.
Against the backdrop of positive, as investors expect, Fed reports, US stock indexes will continue to grow, despite overbought. If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline.
Investors will carefully study the text of the report in order to understand the prospects of the course of the current policy of the Federal Reserve System. Volatility during the publication of the report can significantly increase.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0, 2444.0, 2415.0
Resistance levels: 2663.0, 2700.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2637.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0
Buy Stop 2660.0 Stop-Loss 2637.0. Objectives 2663.0, 2685.0, 2700.0



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  #151  
Old 12-12-2017, 12:27
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GBP/USD: inflation in the UK remains high
12/12/2017
Current dynamics

Presented at the beginning of today's European session, data on consumer inflation in the UK caused a surge in volatility in the dynamics of the pound. The consumer price index (CPI) of Great Britain in November grew by 3.1% (in annual terms), exceeding the forecast by 0.1% and the target inflation rate by 1%.
Consumer prices in the UK in November grew at the fastest pace in the past six years, and signs of a weakening of price pressure are not observed.
Accelerating inflation increases the pressure on household budgets, which has a negative impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole, focused mainly on the domestic market.
A significant share of the UK's GDP is made up of consumer spending. Due to the sharp drop in the pound after the referendum on Brexit, both imported consumer goods and raw materials imported to the UK rose in price. This, in turn, increased the producers' selling prices, and as a result, accelerated the growth of prices for consumer goods.
In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in ten years, intending to slow inflation to a target level of 2%. As stated in the Bank of England, during the next three years the rate can be increased 2 more times, by 0.25% each time.
However, the data published today indicate that high inflation rates may remain in the UK longer than economists had expected.
It is possible that the leaders of the Bank of England will again soon have to think about another increase in the interest rate in order to bring down the growing inflation.
On Thursday, there will be the next meeting of the Bank of England. It is widely expected that the rate will be maintained at the current level of 0.5%. Investors will be interested in the report on monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as comments on the state of the economy and the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with the votes cast for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.
The determining factor in the dynamics of the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Now "galloping" inflation is added to this list. Thus, the intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3080
Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



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  #152  
Old 13-12-2017, 10:59
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DJIA: on the eve of the Fed decision on rates
13/12/2017
Current dynamics

In the run-up to the publication of the Fed's decision on the rate, there is a low activity of traders.
Trading volumes are also small. Investors take into account in the prices of 100% the probability of a rate increase today at 0.25% to 1.5%.
Meanwhile, the dollar keeps positive dynamics. The index of the dollar WSJ on Tuesday rose to a maximum level for the last 3 weeks, near the mark of 87.25. This was the longest period of its continuous growth (for seven consecutive sessions) since November 2016.
The main US stock indexes also traded with a rise, continuing to develop an upward trend. Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday rose by 0.5%, to 24535 points, the S & P500 increased by 0.2%, to 2664 points. Both indexes closed above previous record highs, gaining support from shares of telecommunications and financial companies.
The dollar and stock indices also received support from Tuesday's strong US macro data. As reported by the US Department of Labor, producer prices compared to the same period of the previous year increased by 3.1%, which was the most significant growth in almost six years. It is expected that the November CPI, which will be released on Wednesday (13:30 GMT), will also show growth (by 0.4% compared to the previous month).
Nevertheless, the main focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's report published at 19:00 (GMT) with an assessment of the current economic situation, as well as with the views of members of the FOMC regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy.
Previously, the leadership of the Federal Reserve planned three increases in the key rate for 2018. In addition, the Fed expects that the rate of annual inflation in the US by the end of 2019 will reach 2%. Nevertheless, if the Fed will expect to maintain low price pressure in the US economy, then the number of key rate increases planned for next year can be reduced to two.
According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in the key rate to a range of 1.75% -2% by November next year at 38%. This will require 2 rate hikes by a quarter of a percentage point next year. Many economists expect three increases in the key rate in 2018 and two increases in 2019.
If inflation data is expected to be weak and Fed officials again lower their forecasts for 2018, then the probability of three rate increases in 2018 will decrease, and this will negatively affect the dollar.
If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline. A little later (19:30 GMT) the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen will speak. It is expected that volatility during the publication of the report and the speech of Janet Yellen can significantly increase.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0
Resistance levels: 24535.0, 24700.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 24700.0
Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0



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  #153  
Old 14-12-2017, 11:21
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USD/CHF: the dollar is recovering after a large decline
14/12/2017
Current dynamics

In the focus of attention of traders yesterday was the meeting and the decision of the Fed on the rate, which was published at 19:00 (GMT). As it was already known, the rate was raised by a quarter of a percentage point, to the range of 1.25% -1.50%, for the third time in 2017. The Fed kept the forecast, according to which it is planned to raise rates three times in the next year.
Nevertheless, despite the improved estimates of economic growth and the potential economic incentives expected from the upcoming tax reform in the US, as well as the clearly stated position of the Fed on further tightening of monetary policy, the dollar has declined.
Today, during the Asian session, the dollar's decline continued. Today, market participants will focus on meetings of the two largest world central banks - the Bank of England and the ECB. Decisions on rates in the UK and the Eurozone will be published at 12:00, 12:45 (GMT), respectively.
At 13:30, the ECB press conference will begin. In his speech, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will give explanations regarding the decision taken, and also, probably, answer questions about the QE program in the Eurozone. Most likely, Mario Drago confirms the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, which will negatively affect the euro.
Meanwhile, at 08:30 (GMT) the decision of the Swiss National Bank on interest rates was published.
As expected, the Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at the level of -0.75% and left without changing the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate, between -1.25% and -0.25%. According to the NBS, the overvaluation of the franc "continues to decrease", but "the Swiss National Bank continues to consider the necessary negative interest rate and is ready to interference in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it".
The Swiss franc has reacted with a decrease in the NBS decision, including against the dollar, which at the beginning of the European session is attempting to recover after yesterday's decline.
Of the news for today, also waiting for macro data on the US (preliminary values for December), the publication of which is scheduled for 14:45 (GMT). PMIs will be published in the most important sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector). The growth of indicators is expected, which should support the dollar.
If the PMI indices come out with values worse than the forecast, then the dollar's decline will resume.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.9875, 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445
Resistance levels: 0.9890, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 0.9865. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000
Sell Stop 0.9865. Stop-Loss 0.9910. Take-Profit 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500



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  #154  
Old 15-12-2017, 12:51
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GBP/USD: pound is vulnerable against the background of negotiations on Brexit
15/12/2017
Current dynamics

Against the backdrop of the newly emerging uncertainty around Brexit, the pound is declining during today's European session. Today, on the second day of the EU summit, its leaders ordered the UK to outline the prospects and goals of signing an agreement on mutual trade in the coming weeks.
It is expected that on Friday it will be decided to move on to the next stage of negotiations on Brexit. But so far there is no clear position on the part of the UK on this issue.
There is no consensus in the UK government about further relations with the EU and an understanding of what concessions Brexit's supporters are willing to take to maintain close trade ties with the EU. The British Prime Minister has so far vainly tried to smooth the differences in the government about Brexit.
All this negatively affects the quotations of the pound, which is falling against the dollar, even against the background of the fact that the dollar continues to trade lower against other major currencies.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, but the dollar fell, as this decision was widely expected, and leaders of Fed were cautious about the central bank's statement. The Fed raised its forecasts for US GDP growth, but did not change its inflation forecasts. "It may take more time to reach a target inflation rate of 2%", Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said at a news conference after the central bank meeting.
The Bank of England, as well as the Swiss National Bank and the ECB, left its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, despite the high inflation in the UK, triggered by the fall of the pound after the referendum on Brexit held last summer.
Today, on the last trading day of the week, it is possible to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which can cause its growth in the foreign exchange market.
Triggers may be the publication at 14:15 (GMT) of data on the level of industrial production and the use of production capacity in the US for November. If the data prove to be strong, then the dollar will strengthen.
Also worth paying attention to the speech at 13:15 (GMT) of the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, the executive director of monetary and credit analysis and statistics, Andrew Haldane.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3395, 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3390. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080
Buy Stop 1.3480. Stop-Loss 1.3390. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



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  #155  
Old 18-12-2017, 11:01
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AUD/USD: on the eve of the publication of the minutes from the RBA meeting
18/12/2017
Current dynamics

After the RBA kept the interest rate at the current level of 1.5% at the beginning of the month, the Australian dollar strengthened its decline. In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".
RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time". The AUD / USD reached its June lows near the 0.7500 mark.
Nevertheless, the AUD / USD subsequently increased, and the past week was one of the best in terms of growth since July, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar.
The Australian dollar also received support from positive data from the Australian labor market, published on Thursday. According to the data, the unemployment rate in Australia in November was 5.4%, while the number of jobs increased by 61600 after rising by 7800 in October (the forecast was +18000 new jobs).
Tomorrow (00:30 GMT) the minutes of the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be published. The minutes are published two weeks after the decision on the interest rate. It will present a report on the current state of the Australian economy with details of the decision on the rates. If the RBA shows a "hawkish" attitude toward the inflation forecast in the economy, the markets view this as a higher probability of a rate hike, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft tone of the protocol and the propensity to continue carrying out a soft monetary policy will help to weaken the Australian currency.
At the same time, the Fed implemented a third increase in short-term interest rates in December and signaled that next year it will follow a similar course and intends to implement three rate increases of 0.25% each time.
Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7640, 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7670, 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7675. Take-Profit 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7675. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950



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  #156  
Old 19-12-2017, 12:01
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NZD/USD: New Zealand business confidence index remains in negative territory
19/12/2017
Current dynamics

As it was reported today during the Asian session by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the confidence index in the business circles of New Zealand in December is still deep in the negative territory and amounts to -37.8% (in November the value of the index was -39.3%). The index of business confidence assesses the business climate in New Zealand and allows you to analyze the economic situation in the short term. The decrease in the value of the indicator indicates a decrease in business confidence and a decrease in business investment, which negatively affects the production and other areas of the economy of New Zealand.
The mood of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still deteriorating, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. The general elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand led to the defeat of the ruling at the time conservative party.
The consumer mood in New Zealand is also deteriorating. This is evidenced by the decline in the consumer sentiment indicator in New Zealand, published today at the beginning of the Asian trading session (107.4 in the fourth quarter against 112.4 in the previous quarter).
According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
On the other hand, the US dollar currently looks more promising for investment than the New Zealand dollar against the backdrop of expectations of a phased increase in the Fed's rate and accelerating the growth of the US economy. The Fed plans to raise the rate 3 times in 2018. Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the reduction of the NZD / USD.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out at + 0.4% (against previous values of -3.4%, -3.5%, -1.0%, -2.4%) . Dairy products - one of the main exports goods of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800
Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6990. Stop-Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop-Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270



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  #157  
Old 20-12-2017, 11:42
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S&P500: US Senate approves tax reduction bill
20/12/2017
Current dynamics

As it became known at the beginning of today's European session, the US Senate approved a reduction of taxes for 1.5 trillion dollars within the tax reform by 51 votes "in favor" and 48 "against".
On Tuesday, a package of laws providing for the most significant reform of the tax system since 1986 was passed by the House of Representatives with 227 votes "in favor" and 203 "against". All the Democrats present at the meeting, which was predictable, and 12 Republicans voted "against".
The reform implies a reduction in corporate taxes from 35% to 21% (previously 20% was assumed). This will increase the profits of companies, as well as increase the wages of hired workers at an accelerated rate. This, in turn, should stimulate the growth of inflation, which will contribute to more active actions of the Fed with regard to further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Most taxes will be reduced from January, and by February many workers will teach higher salaries.
The new tax law will accelerate the growth of the US economy. The dollar has not reacted to this information in any way. However, the main US stock indices, in general, positively took the news about the adoption of the law in the Senate and continue to grow during the European trading session.
Today is weak for the publication of important macro statistics. All movement around the dollar and the US stock markets will occur against the backdrop of information on the results of the promotion of tax reform in the US Senate. Conservatives said they are still deciding whether to support the bill on short-term expenses. As expected, the House of Representatives will vote on the bill on expenditures on Thursday.
Despite the doubts of some economists regarding the positive impact of this law on the growth of the US economy, nevertheless, its adoption can be considered a major victory for US President Donald Trump.
Most likely, in full measure the market reaction to this fact can be seen as early as next year. On the eve of the Catholic Christmas and the New Year celebration, the activity of traders and trading volumes are declining.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The S & P500 index remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts since February 2016. On Monday, the S & P500 index updated its absolute high near the 2693.0 mark and today, after yesterday's declining, it again traded with a rise.
The upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart runs near the 2710.0 mark, which will become the nearest goal in case of continued growth.
Since May 2016, technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) are on the buyers’ side, and signals for the reversal of the long-term upward trend are not yet visible.
A downward correction is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels of 2648.0 (local lows), 2627.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2610.0 (bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart).
The signal to the beginning of the downward correction may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 2669.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
While the S & P500 is trading above the key support level of 2490.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart, the Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the growth since February 2016), long-term upward dynamics persist.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 2693.0 (December and year highs), the index's growth will continue.
Support levels: 2669.0, 2648.0, 2627.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
Resistance levels: 2693.0, 2700.0, 2710.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2677.0. Stop-Loss 2694.0. Objectives 2669.0, 2648.0, 2627.0, 2610.0, 2580.0, 2500.0, 2490.0
Buy Stop 2694.0 Stop-Loss 2677.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2710.0




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  #158  
Old 21-12-2017, 12:30
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GBP/USD: pound remains vulnerable against the background of Brexit
21/12/2017
Current dynamics

The resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Teresa Mei Damian Green, as it became known on Wednesday, caused a decline in the pound. Damian Greene was Teresa May's companion, and his departure changes the balance of power in the Cabinet. Now this is just as bad for the conservatives, as the UK conducts the most important negotiations about Brexit. The British government still has no common opinion on further actions and future relations with the EU. The Prime Minister of Great Britain is trying to smooth the differences in the government over Brexit, but, at the same time, is looking for ways to maintain close trade ties with the EU.
According to official data released on Thursday, in November of this year, compared with November last year, the net borrowing of the UK public sector decreased and reached a minimum in ten years (8.7 billion pounds, 0.2 billion pounds less than in November last year) . The National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain noted that in the last months of the financial year, which ends in March 2018, tax revenues are expected to slow down.
Philip Hammond, the UK finance minister, announced more gloomy forecasts for the economy in November, and on Wednesday the IMF published a forecast that UK GDP growth in 2018 will slow down to about 1.5% amid the declining consumer and company costs due to Brexit.
Meanwhile, in the financial markets, there has been a slowdown in trading activity and a decline in trading volumes ahead of the Catholic Christmas and the celebration of the New Year.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the United States. At 13:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. This indicator determines the state of the labor market. The growth is expected to reach 231,000 (against 225,000 last week). The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which will negatively affect the US dollar.
Also at this time annual data on US GDP for the 3 quarter (updated values) and the price index (for 3 quarter), which is an indicator of inflation, will be published. Data on GDP are among the key, along with data on the labor market and inflation, for the Fed in determining its further monetary policy. A high result strengthens the USD. Forecast: GDP for the 3rd quarter increased by 3.3%. If the data prove to be better, the dollar will be strengthened.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100
Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050



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  #159  
Old 22-12-2017, 11:25
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USD/CAD: probability of rate increase in Canada increased in January
22/12/2017
Current dynamics

After yesterday, at the beginning of the US trading session were simultaneously published macro statistics on the US and Canada, the USD/CAD literally collapsed. The fall in the hour was about 100 points. Then the pair fell further, but managed to recover slightly to the end of yesterday's trading day, closing near the 1.2740 mark.
Negative factor for the US dollar was the publication of revised previously published data on US GDP for the 3rd quarter (+ 3.2% instead of + 3.3%). Despite the fact that the US GDP growth rates are record since the beginning of 2015, this did not stop the dollar from falling.
The basic index of real spending on personal consumption for November was also revised downward (1.3% in Q3, instead of 1.4%, according to the preliminary release).
The US dollar was put under pressure, despite the publication of the index of leading indicators Conference Board, which rose in November by 0.4%, to 130.9 after rising in October and September. The index of leading indicators consists of 10 components, including initial applications for unemployment benefits, production orders and changes in the S&P500 index. Economists note that the November growth of the index signals the continuation of strong economic growth in the first half of 2018.
Simultaneously with the publication of updated data on US GDP, inflation indicators were published for Canada. The total consumer price index (Total CPI) of Canada in November rose by 2.1% in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.0%). Compared to the previous month, the price increase was 0.3%.
Basic inflation in Canada also accelerated. Indicators of annual core inflation showed growth to the range of 1.5% -1.9%, while the average value of 1.7% became the maximum for more than a year.
In addition, the October report on retail sales in Canada also exceeded expectations.
At the beginning of the month, the Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at the current level of 1.0%. Prior to this, the bank twice this year raised rates - in July and September. Inflation remains below the target level of 2%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz noted earlier that the target range for inflation is 1% -3%, and said that the decline in the Canadian dollar will support exports. Now, after yesterday's publication on inflation indicators and retail sales, traders estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in Canada in January at 50%.
The focus of traders today will be the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of Canada's GDP data for October. GDP is expected to grow by 0.2% compared with September. This will mean that the data generally correspond to growth in the 4th quarter at the level of 2%.
Also at the same time (13:30 GMT) we are waiting for data from the US, when important macro statistics (final values) for November will be published, including inflation indices (personal income / expenditure of Americans, personal consumption expenditure), orders for goods durable. The growth is expected in comparison with the previous month, which should positively affect the US dollar.
In this connection, once again it is worth remembering yesterday, when the dollar collapsed after the published updated data on GDP for the 3rd quarter turned out to be worse than the preliminary figures. Although in the US came out, in general, positive macro data, the fact that they were worse than the forecast, was the reason for selling the dollar.
A little later (at 15:00) will be reported on the sales of new homes in the US for November.
If today's publication of data on the US and Canada will resemble yesterday, the story of the fall of the pair USD / CAD may repeat.
In the opposite scenario, if the US data is better than forecasted values, the US dollar will partially compensate for yesterday's losses.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Resistance levels: 1.2740, 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2750. Take-Profit 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050
Buy Stop 1.2750. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2780, 1.2835, 1.2900




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  #160  
Old 26-12-2017, 11:16
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Nikkey225: The Bank of Japan intends to continue a large-scale program of mitigation
26/12/2017
Current dynamics

As Haruhiko Kuroda said during today's press conference, the Japanese central bank will continue the large-scale mitigation program, as inflation is still far from the target level of 2%.
This is, almost traditional in recent months, the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan was addressed primarily to those investors who expect that next year the Bank of Japan may begin to wind down its extra soft monetary policy.
If earlier Kuroda spoke about "readiness for the most decisive measures to support the Japanese economy", which implies continuation or expansion of extra soft monetary policy in Japan, today he said that "we (the leadership of the Bank of Japan) will further support the cycle of revenue growth , supporting a moderate increase in wages and prices."
According to official data released today, in November, the unemployment rate in Japan fell to 2.7%. This means that the conditions on the labor market are most favorable for the growth of wages for last 24 years.
The CPI National Consumer Price Index for November, published by the Bureau of Statistics of Japan, came out today with an increase of 0.6% (in annual terms), which is better than the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.2% in October. CPI is the most significant inflationary barometer of changes in Japan's consumer trends. The growth of the index positively affects the yen's quotations and the stock index.
The Bank of Japan and the authorities of the country are trying to overcome a long period of deflation and stagnation.
Nevertheless, the positive Japanese macro statistics and Kuroda's statement were rather restrainedly perceived on the Japanese stock market.
The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 0.045% from 0.035%.
After the Japanese main stock index Nikkey225 jumped by about 20% in the period from September to November, the last few weeks it is just below 23000.00, and today, at the end of the Asian trading session, it was trading near 22900.00.
Today, trading volumes are low because the European stock exchanges, as well as the markets of Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are closed today due to the celebration of Boxing Day. However, the US exchanges are working today. Therefore, volatility with the opening of US stock exchanges will increase.
Nevertheless, the full activity of trade will be restored in the next year. On the eve of the New Year celebration, the activity of traders and trading volumes will remain low.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After in November the Nikkey225 index reached the annual maximum near the mark of 23430.00, the last weeks the index is traded in the range, the upper limit of which passes near the resistance level of 23000.00. At the same time, the Nikkey225 index keeps positive dynamics, trading in the upward channel on the weekly chart since September 2017.
The last days trading activity is low due to the upcoming New Year holidays.
In case of fastening above the resistance level of 23000.00, growth will resume.
The scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the short-term support level of 22550.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). The goal of the decline is the support level of 22000.00 (November, December low and the low limit of the range formed between the levels of 23000.00 and 22000.00).
The long-term positive dynamics of the index remains in force, as long as the index trades above the support level of 20900.00 (zone of ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart and highs of 2015).
Support levels: 22840.00, 22550.00, 22000.00, 20900.00
Resistance levels: 23000.00, 23450.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 22700.00. Stop-Loss 23100.00. Objectives 22550.00, 22000.00, 21000.00
Buy Stop 23100.00. Stop-Loss 22700.00. Objectives 23450.00, 24000.00



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