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  #81  
Old 06-09-2017, 11:07
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DJIA: US stock markets remain under pressure
06/09/2017
Current dynamics

Received yesterday, during the US trading session, weak macro data on the US contributed to a sharp intraday decline in major US stock indexes.
The US Department of Commerce on Tuesday reported that production orders in July fell 3.3% compared to June, while orders for durable goods fell by 6.8% compared to the previous month.
The aggravation of geopolitical tension after North Korea's nuclear tests on Sunday, as well as the new hurricane "Irma" that is approaching Florida, also have a negative impact on US stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 234 points yesterday, the S & P500 - by 18 points, Nasdaq Composite fell by 59 points.
Shares of financial companies became outsiders in the S & P500. So, JP Morgan shares lost 2.4% yesterday, Bank of America - 3.2%. Shares of technological company United Technologies in the structure of DJIA on Tuesday fell by 5.7%.
The ICE dollar index closed Tuesday at around 92.25, the lowest level since August 29.
Today, US stock markets remain under pressure. Again, the increased demand for assets-seekers - yen, franc, gold. Gold futures on COMEX are traded with an increase of 0.3%, at 1340 dollars per troy ounce, reaching an annual maximum.
Recently, trades are taking place with sharp fluctuations. Investors are increasingly worried about how long the bull market will last. While the market outlook is generally positive, there are many risk factors. This is the preservation, and even growth, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the domestic political problems in the US and the White House, the weak macro data coming from the US. In the United States, Hurricane Harvey has not yet recovered from Hurricane Hurricane as he races on Florida, another powerful hurricane, Irma, is approaching.
Thus, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets noticeably decreases, which is reflected in the decline in major US stock indexes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, the DJIA index is trading in a range between two important levels, the breakthrough of which can determine the direction of the further movement of DJIA in the short term. In case of breakdown of the support level 21720.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), one can consider the possibility of opening medium-term short positions.
The target of the decrease may be support levels 20810.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark 22177.0).
Breakdown of key support levels 20750.0, 20630.0 significantly strengthens the risks of completion of the long-term bullish trend of DJIA.
At the same time, DJIA maintains positive long-term dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes through the mark of 22350.0. Here, the upper border of the channel passes on the weekly chart. In case of the breakdown of the nearest strong short-term resistance level of 21810.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the growth of DJIA will resume, and the targets will be the levels of 22060.0, 2177.0 (highs of the year and August), 22350.0.
Support levels: 21720.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 21810.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21850.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0
Sell Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21850.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #82  
Old 07-09-2017, 11:27
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EUR/USD: focus on ECB decisions
07/09/2017
Current dynamics

According to the data published on Thursday, the growth of the Eurozone economy in the second quarter (in annual terms) was 2.3% (the forecast was + 2.2%). The data show that the economy of the Eurozone grew faster than in early 2017.
In the 1st quarter, according to GDP growth, the Eurozone outperformed the US, and in the second quarter, growth accelerated.
This data came out on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on the interest rate (at 11:45 GMT). It is expected that the rates will remain at the same level. A little later (12:30 GMT) the ECB press conference will begin.
It is likely that following the meeting of the Governing Council, the president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, will signal that the bank will begin to reduce the program for the purchase of assets, the amount of which is 2.3 trillion euros.
Prospects for the growth of the Eurozone economy are becoming increasingly positive. Nevertheless, the inflation rate remains well below the target level set by the central bank.
ECB executives decide what to do with the asset purchase program in conditions of low inflation and the limited availability of available for purchase assets on the stock market. The ECB may postpone a decision on this issue.
Nevertheless, the euro is growing on expectations of the ECB's statement about the curtailment of the incentive program. The euro is still trading below the five-year average. At the same time, there are positive changes in the Eurozone economy.
Investors' opinions as to whether the ECB will today indicate the possibility of curtailing the QE program were divided approximately 50/50.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 1.2100 mark.
In the period from 11:45 to 13:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market. The reaction of the market to Mario Draghi's speech can be unpredictable. And so far it is unclear what Mario Draghi will say, but he can develop the markets.
The lower boundary of the channel passes through the support level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
If Mario Draghi declares the start and the deadline for the curtailment of the QE program, the euro will become sharply stronger on the foreign exchange market. In this case, the targets for the EUR / USD growth will be the levels of 1.2050 (July 2012 low), 1.2100.00, 1.2180 (Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).
If the ECB postpones the solution of the issue or extends the terms of QE, the euro will fall under pressure.
The breakdown of the support level 1.1780 will create prerequisites for a deeper decline in EUR / USD and the opening of short positions. So far, long positions on EUR / USD are relevant.
Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss 1.2010. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620
Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2370



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #83  
Old 08-09-2017, 11:05
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USD/JPY: the dollar continues to fall
08/09/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to decline. Concerns about geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic data and doubts about the prospects for raising the Federal Reserve's interest rates helped the dollar to fall to its lowest level for more than two and a half years.
The ICE dollar index today decreased by 0.5%, reaching a minimum of 33 months.
The fall in the USD / JPY began in July, as expectations for new stimulus measures in the US weakened, including lower taxes and increased spending on infrastructure. Recently, increased geopolitical concerns about the testing of weapons in North Korea, forced investors to buy more reliable currencies such as gold, franc, yen. This Saturday in North Korea will be the anniversary of the founding of the state. A year ago, on that day, the military tested nuclear weapons.
History can repeat itself. But this time it could be like the next launch of the missile towards Japan, as well as a test explosion of nuclear weapons in the DPRK.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump again cautioned against North Korea, saying that "North Korea behaves badly and needs to be stopped". "The military actions against North Korea - this is one of the options for the development of events", according to Trump. Military confrontation "definitely can happen".
The dollar today fell by 0.7% against the yen and by 0.6% against the Swiss franc. Gold prices rose by 0.7% to 1,357.00 dollars per ounce.
Investors are also worried that the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" may negatively affect the economic performance of the United States in the short term. This may also have a negative impact on expectations of an increase in FRS interest rates. The increase in interest rates, as a rule, provides support to the currency. However, a number of Fed officials have expressed doubts about the need for such a step on the part of the Fed on the background of low inflation in the US.
The decline in the dollar is also due to a decrease in the yield of US government bonds. Today, the yield of 10-year US government bonds continued to decline and, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2,027% from the level of 2,061%, recorded on Thursday.
Against the backdrop of a large-scale decline in the dollar and growth in demand for safe haven assets, the US dollar / Japanese yen has reached a new 10-month low, breaking through the 108.00 level.
It is likely that today, at the end of the trading week, many investors will want to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which will cause its corrective growth. Nevertheless, the negative attitude to the dollar persists. Probably further decline in the dollar in the short term, including in the pair USD / JPY.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical analysis
Since July, the active decline of the pair USD / JPY has started, which broke through the key support levels of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), 108.80 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).
A powerful negative impulse, based on a large-scale weakening of the dollar, pushes the pair USD / JPY towards support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), 105.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the monthly chart).
Apparently, only near the level of 105.00 it is possible to stop the fall of the USD / JPY.
An alternative scenario involves the return of the USD / JPY in the zone above the level of 108.80 and the resumption of growth with targets at levels 110.10, 110.90.
Nevertheless, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further fall of the USD / JPY.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts also give signals for sales.
Support levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 108.10, 108.80, 110.10, 110.90, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading recommendations

Buy Stop. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 110.10, 110.90
Sell in the market. Stop Loss. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #84  
Old 11-09-2017, 11:24
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USD/CHF: on the eve of the NBS meeting
11/09/2017
Current dynamics

The Swiss National Bank has traditionally stated that the Swiss franc is overbought, consistently advocating a soft monetary policy in the country.
As a result of the efforts of the Swiss National Bank aimed at curbing the growth of its currency, its foreign exchange reserves grew to about 700 billion francs (735 billion US dollars). However, investors continue buying francs.
The Swiss franc, along with gold, the yen, is often used by investors as an asylum during periods of economic and political instability, thanks to Switzerland's strong economy, low levels of its debt and the stability of its political system.
Nevertheless, for the export-oriented Swiss economy, the franc's exchange rate is extremely important. A large share of its exports falls to the Eurozone, China, the United States, and the rising franc leads to a rise in the price of Swiss goods, making them less competitive.
Realizing this, the NBS seeks to contain the growth of its national currency.
The Swiss National Bank has set a negative deposit rate, hoping that this will reduce the attractiveness of Swiss assets for international investors.
Also, the NBS periodically conducts currency interventions with franc sales, of which it never declares either before or after the intervention.
At the end of July, the pair USD / CHF reached the level of 0.9445, after which its sharp, unexplained growth began, while the dollar was actively declining in the currency market against other major currencies. It is likely that the Swiss National Bank conducted a currency intervention. As a result, the USD/CHF grew by about 3.5%, reaching 0.9770 in August.
Today, USD/CHF is again trading near the level of 0.9445, from which the pair started to grow at the end of July.
On Thursday, a meeting of the NBS on monetary policy will take place, and at 08:30 (GMT) the NBS's decision on the interest rate, which at the moment is (-0.75%), will be published.
It is necessary to be extremely cautious when opening short positions for a pair of USD/CHF, since unexpected decisions from the NBS are possible on the background of the newly strengthened franc.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After reaching the annual low at 0.9445 at the end of July, the pair USD / CHF skyrocketed during several trading sessions and reached the level of 0.9770 in the middle of last month (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level 1.0300).
Nevertheless, in the future, the pair USD / CHF again moved into a downtrend against the background of a large-scale falling dollar.
Today, trading opened with a sharp increase in the dollar in currency pairs with the yen, the franc, as well as the decline in gold prices. Probably, this was due to the fact that the DPRK did not start the missile once again, as it was expected on September 9, when the anniversary of the founding of the state was celebrated.
Nevertheless, the pressure on the dollar persists. It is not excluded that already today during the American session the pair USD / CHF decline will resume.
You also need to be careful on the eve of the NBS meeting this week. Unexpected decisions on the part of the NBS or new currency interventions with franc sales are possible, which will cause another sharp growth of the USD / CHF.
In this case, technical analysis fades into the background under the pressure of fundamental factors.
The first signal to the growth of USD / CHF will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.9540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In this case, the growth targets will be the resistance levels 0.9600 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.9650 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and the level of 1.0300) 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.9770 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
In the case of the breakdown of the level of 0.9400, the decline in the pair USD / CHF may resume within the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the support level of 0.9300. This level will become the goal if the USD/CHF is resumed.
The strong negative dynamics prevails.
Support levels: 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9540, 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9770

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9520. Stop-Loss 0.9460. Take-Profit 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9770
Sell Stop 0.9460. Stop-Loss 0.9520. Take-Profit 0.9400, 0.9300



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #85  
Old 12-09-2017, 11:45
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GBP/USD: inflation in the UK rose again
12/09/2017
Current dynamics

At the beginning of today's European session, after the Office of National Statistics of Great Britain was presented a report on consumer inflation, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices and is a key indicator of inflation. The data show that the inflationary pressure shows almost no signs of slowing down.
According to the data presented, consumer inflation in the UK in August (in annual terms) was 2.9% (forecast was + 2.8% and + 2.6% in July).
The central bank of Great Britain is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the Bank of England has faced a problem of weak economic growth and wages, and on the other hand, with rising prices, which are on the rise due to the sharp drop in the British pound that began after the referendum on the withdrawal of the country from the EU in June 2016.
Inflation significantly exceeds the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, salaries grow much more slowly, not keeping up with inflation and cutting the level of consumer spending. Inflationary pressure, which affects British buyers, already has a negative impact on the UK economy, whose growth is determined primarily by internal factors.
On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on wages and unemployment will be presented, and on Thursday the meeting of the Bank of England will be held. At 11:00 (GMT) also on Thursday will be published a decision on the interest rate in the UK.
It is expected that the leaders of the Bank of England will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Some economists expect that only early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.
On Thursday, especially at 11:00 (GMT), a sharp increase in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but also throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical Analysis
The GBP / USD pair is almost continuously growing over the course of six trading sessions.
After the release of inflation data, the pair GBP / USD today broke through the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the fall of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3260 (annual and August high) and continues grow in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
The upper limit of the ascending channels runs near the mark 1.3390, just below the level of 1.3460 (the July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts turned to long positions.
In case of consolidation above the level of 1.3210, further growth is likely. The alternative scenario involves breakdown of the support level of 1.3210 and a further decline in the pair GBP / USD to support level 1.2980 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
A decline below support level 1.2870 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will strengthen the risk of a GBP / USD return in a downtrend.
Support levels: 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3390, 1.3460

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870
Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3360, 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #86  
Old 13-09-2017, 11:02
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AUD/USD: strong employment data expected
13/09/2017
Current dynamics

Tomorrow is expected to publish important data assessing the state of the Australian economy.
At 01:00 (GMT), the consumer price inflation expectations index from the Melbourne Institute will be published, reflecting consumer expectations for future inflation for the next 12 months. Previous rate is +4.2%. If the current figure for September is higher, then the likelihood of an increase in the RBA rate will increase, which will have a positive effect on the Australian currency.
At 01:30 (GMT), data from the Australian labor market for August will be released, which may exceed expectations that the increase in jobs in August will be 20,000 above the long-term average of 15,000, and the unemployment rate in August will be 5, 6% (in the previous month, the number of new jobs also turned out to be higher than the consensus forecast of 20,000, and unemployment was also at 5.6%).
Strong Australian employment data may force investors to reconsider their forecasts regarding the start of rate hikes by the central bank, which can support the national currency.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia retained the key rate at a record low of 1.5%. "The growth of the exchange rate will become a factor of limited inflationary pressure in the economy, and, apparently, will cause a slowdown in the growth of economic activity and inflation compared to current forecasts", RBA Governor Philip Lowey said yesterday.
In combination with the recovery of Australia's GDP in the second quarter, strong data from the labor market can force the RBA to change its position from neutral to a tendency to tighten policies.
Also tomorrow (02:00 GMT) important macro data will be published from China (retail sales and level of industrial production for August).
China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia. Therefore, positive news from China also positively affects the currencies of the Pacific region, including the Australian dollar.
It is expected positive macro statistics from China, which will also support the Australian dollar.
Thus, there are several strong fundamental factors that may tomorrow provoke the growth of the Australian dollar, including against the US dollar, which recently shows a large decline in the foreign exchange market and is under pressure amid growing pessimism of investors regarding the possibility of a further increase in the interest rate in the US, as well as the continuing tensions between the US and North Korea and the political contradictions in Washington.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
AUD/USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.8130.
Long positions are still relevant. While the AUD / USD pair is above the short-term support levels of 0.8010 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the bulls are not threatened.
Moreover, with a correction decrease to support level 0.8010, it is possible to increase long positions with stops below the level of 0.7980.
You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of short-term support level 0.7935. In this case, a further corrective decrease to the support levels of 0.7850 is possible (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7680 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.
Support levels: 0.8010, 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680
Resistance levels: 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.8010. Stop-Loss 0.8055. Take-Profit 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680
Buy Stop 0.8055. Stop-Loss 0.8010. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #87  
Old 14-09-2017, 12:02
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FTSE100: The Bank of England decided to keep the current interest rate at the same level
14/09/2017
Current dynamics

Today was a busy day of publication of important macro-economic news. After the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the deposit rate at -0.75%, the franc declined in the foreign exchange market. According to the NBS, "the franc remains highly overvalued", and currency interventions with the franc's sales are still "necessary".
At 11:00 (GMT), the decision of the Bank of England was published, according to which the central bank of Great Britain decided to keep the current interest rate at the previous level of 0.25%, the lowest level for the last 300 years.
Contradictory data from the UK, published recently, including high inflation, improvement in the labor market and increased production activity, but weak wage growth, made it necessary for the Bank of England not to rush to make a decision on changing monetary policy.
The pound reacted to the Bank of England's decision by strengthening, while the London Stock Exchange index declined. Two of the 9 members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for an immediate increase in the interest rate amid accelerated inflation, which hit British incomes, which also reflected a decline in consumer spending.
The UK economy is focused on the domestic market, and the decline in consumer spending negatively affects the growth of the country's GDP.
Nevertheless, the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit still requires support in the form of maintaining a soft monetary policy.
The propensity of some members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to tighten monetary policy gives rise to an opinion among economists that the Bank of England may soon begin to phase out the extra soft monetary policy.
Some economists expect that early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.
And this is a negative factor for the British stock market, and a positive one for the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
In response to the decision of the Bank of England on the rate, the FTSE100 index fell sharply, failing to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 7395.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Immediately after the publication of the decision, the FTSE100 index within half an hour decreased by 0.8% to support level 7335.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
If the negative dynamics will increase, then the nearest targets of reducing the FTSE100 will be support levels of 7290.0 (summer lows), 7265.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 7265.0 will accelerate the decline of the index within the descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 7090.0 (the low of February, the highs of October).
Breakdown of the level 7090.0 and further decline will mean a turn and end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.
The scenario for the resumption of growth implies the return of the FTSE100 index above the local resistance level of 7436.0.
While the Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, the scenario for the preservation and development of the bullish trend remains relevant.
Support levels: 7335.0, 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Resistance levels: 7395.0, 7400.0, 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 7410.0. Take-Profit 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Buy Stop 7410.0. Stop-Loss 7290.0. Take-Profit 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #88  
Old 15-09-2017, 11:29
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Brent: prices are rising again
15/09/2017
Current dynamics

During today's Asian session, the Japanese broadcaster NHK announced the next launch of the North Korean ballistic missile towards Japan. Investors reacted rather sluggishly to the next launch of the missile. The price of oil in response to this message has slightly decreased. However, in general, quotations were stable, and during the European session, the growth of oil prices resumed.
A sharp increase in oil prices is observed for the second week in a row. The tension between the United States and North Korea has somewhat decreased. Concerns about the effects of hurricanes in the United States and the political contradictions in Washington have also weakened a bit.
American refineries have been restoring their work after the hurricanes, and the demand for oil in the US is gradually recovering.
On Tuesday, its monthly report was released by OPEC. According to this document, the cartel's output in August fell for the first time since April. In addition, OPEC countries adhered to the agreement on oil production reduction more strictly. OPEC and countries outside the cartel are discussing the possibility of extending the agreement after March next year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday presented a report according to which the world oil supply in August fell for the first time in the last 4 months, by 720,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the IEA raised the forecast for the growth of world oil demand in 2017 to 1.6 million barrels per day. Optimistic forecasts for oil demand in the coming months and data on the fall of world oil reserves contribute to higher oil prices.
Today at 17:00 (GMT) the American oil service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US. This report is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. The previous report indicated a reduction in the number of active drilling platforms due to Hurricane Harvey (up to 756 against 759 weeks earlier and 768 two weeks ago). If the number of active drilling rigs decreases again, this will also contribute to the growth of oil quotes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
This week, the price of Brent crude oil broke through an important resistance level of 54.70
(EMA200 on the weekly chart) and continues to grow in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper border of which passes near the mark of 58.45 (highs of 2017).
The fundamental factors speak in favor of maintaining the positive dynamics of oil prices and the likelihood of their further growth.
The breakthrough of resistance level 55.65 (EMA50 on the monthly chart) will create prerequisites for further price growth with the target of 58.45 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil.
The reduction scenario involves a breakdown of the 54.70 support level and a further price fall with targets at support levels of 52.90 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 52.45 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support levels 51.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute lows of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) will mean a price return to bearish trend, and the decline may extend to the level of support at 50.00 (the lows of August). Further objectives are support levels 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
So far, positive dynamics have prevailed.
Support levels: 55.00, 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 55.65, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 54.90. Stop-Loss 55.80. Take-Profit 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70
Buy Stop 55.80. Stop-Loss 54.90. Take-Profit 56.00, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45



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  #89  
Old 18-09-2017, 12:04
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USD/JPY: Dollar grows against yen
18/09/2017
Current dynamics

The focus of the traders this week will be the meetings of the central banks of the United States and Japan. Wednesday (18:00 GMT) will publish the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Also, economic forecasts of the Federal Reserve will be presented, including for 2020. At 18:30 (GMT), the FRS press conference will begin, and investors will closely follow the speech of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen to catch signals about further plans by the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to CME Group forecasts, the probability that interest rates will remain unchanged is 98.6%.
Meanwhile, the US dollar / Japanese yen pair is trading today with an increase of 0.5%, at 111.30 after reaching the highest level in almost eight weeks at 111.41. Concerns about political risks have weakened.
On Friday, North Korea launched another missile, but on Monday the market ignores this fact. In addition, in Japan today is a state holiday, and the market is experiencing a reduction in liquidity and trading volumes on the yen.
On Thursday (02:00 GMT) will be published the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the main interest rate in Japan will remain at the same level (-0.1%).
The Bank of Japan adheres to an extra soft monetary policy. As repeatedly stated by the representatives of the bank, in order to accelerate inflation, which is near zero values, the Bank of Japan can expand the measures of quantitative and qualitative easing.
Nevertheless, since the end of 2016, the yen has appreciated significantly against the dollar, including against the backdrop of investors buying yen as a safe haven.
This worries the monetary authorities of Japan, whose economy is focused, mainly, on the export of high-tech products.
At 06:30 (GMT) on Thursday, the Bank of Japan will hold a press conference. The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda will present to investors the CBR's position on the issue of monetary policy and will assess the prospects for economic activity in the country and the course of monetary policy.
In this regard, the pair USD / JPY is expected to increase volatility on Wednesday from 18:00 (GMT) and on Thursday from 02:00 to 07:00 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
A week earlier, amid growing tension between the United States and North Korea, the pair USD / JPY fell to the support level of 107.30 (the lows of September and the year, as well as the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the market ignored the next launch of the North Korean missile last Friday. As a result, USD / JPY broke through resistance level 110.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart, Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), and today it makes an attempt to gain a foothold above the important level of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart ).
Today, the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the foreign exchange market.
Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
If the pair USD / JPY continues to grow, the immediate target will be level 113.00 (50% Fibonacci level and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
The reduction scenario implies the return of USD / JPY to the level of 110.15 and the resumption of the decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
Support levels: 110.90, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 110.80. Take-Profit 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 110.80. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00




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  #90  
Old 19-09-2017, 11:08
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NZD/USD: volatility is expected to increase
19/09/2017
Current dynamics

The main events of the week started are the meetings of the central banks of the USA and Japan. The two-day meeting of the Fed starts today, and will end on Wednesday with a publication (at 18:00 GMT) of interest rate decisions and a press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT).
On Thursday, a more favorable than expected consumer price index in the US was published, which strengthened investors' expectations about the likelihood of another rate hike this year. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year at 58% against the 41% level noted last week.
On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to announce plans to reduce its portfolio of mortgage and government bonds by $ 4.5 trillion, but will leave interest rates unchanged.
If the leaders of the Fed express confidence in the restoration of economic growth in the US, it will support the dollar.
Concerning the New Zealand dollar, it is worth noting that volatility in trading on it could rise sharply on Monday, when the results of the general election in New Zealand, which will be held on Saturday, will be known. According to the latest opinion poll, the gap between the candidates remains very small. 42.4% of the respondents are ready to cast their votes for the National Party, and 40.4% for the opposition Labor Party. If the ruling National Party wins, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication after 13:00 (GMT) of the data from the auction of dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with the value of + 0.3%.
It is expected that the price of milk powder will not change or fall by 2%, which will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, NZD/USD is making another attempt to break through the resistance level of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
At the same time, NZD / USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7550 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline from 0.8800, which began in July 2014, December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were turned to long positions.
In case of breaking through the local resistance level of 0.7345, the growth of NZD / USD pair will continue with the target at the level of 0.7550.
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), further decrease to the support levels 0.7200 (EMA144), 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is possible.
The breakdown at 0.7175 raises the risks of a return to a downtrend. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).
The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.
Support levels: 0.7265, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7345, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550




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  #91  
Old 20-09-2017, 11:11
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S&P500: sluggish index dynamics
20/09/2017
Current dynamics

Trading on world stock exchanges today is sluggish. Market participants took a wait-and-see position before the Fed decision on rates. Investors almost did not react to the speech of President Donald Trump at the UN in which he threatened to "completely destroy" North Korea if the US had to defend itself or its allies. It seems that investors do not believe in such a scenario of development of the geopolitical confrontation on the Korean peninsula.
Today, the focus of market participants is the Fed meeting. The US Central Bank is expected to announce a reduction in the balance of 4.5 trillion dollars. However, the rates will remain at the current level in the range of 1.00-1.25%.
The change in the Fed's forecasts regarding the dynamics of interest rates for the next year is the most interesting issue for investors. If the prospects for raising rates worsen, the dollar may be under pressure. At the same time, the US stock markets will receive an additional impetus to the continuation of the bullish trend.
Another point that deserves attention in assessing the prospects and dynamics of stock indices. Republicans in the US Senate prepared a preliminary draft agreement on the budget, which laid down the parameters of the tax reform. Until now, stock markets have ignored the failures of the administration of the US president, relying mainly on the strong reports of US companies and macro statistics.
Adoption of the budget is a prerequisite for passage in the Senate of the law on taxes by a simple majority vote, without the support of representatives of a democratic party.
In case of successful outcome of voting on this issue, the US stock market will respond with growth, as the tax reform of the administration of Donald Trump is designed to reduce taxes for US companies.
In general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After Monday's index S & P500 updated the annual high near the mark of 2506.0, today the index of the second day is trading in a narrow range near this level.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers’ side.
Short-term downward correction is possible to support levels 2496.0 (EMA144), 2491.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). Deeper correction is allowed to the support level 2472.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
The upward trend in the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support level of 2378.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Only the breakdown of the support level of 2348.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) could significantly increase the risk of the S & P500 returning to a downtrend.
About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. There is a possibility of further growth.
Support levels: 2496.0, 2491.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0, 2348.0
Resistance levels: 2506.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2502.0. Stop-Loss 2507.0. Objectives 2496.0, 2491.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0
Buy Stop 2507.0 Stop-Loss 2502.0. Objectives 2525.0, 2550.0



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  #92  
Old 21-09-2017, 12:17
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AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is leading the decline against the US dollar
21/09/2017
Current dynamics

As Philip Lowie, the RBA's governor, said today, the bank expects "a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, which should help accelerate the growth of salaries", adding that "based on the current situation, we are aimed at further reducing unemployment and are on the way to the middle of the target inflation range 2% -3%”.
According to Lowie, the RBA's optimistic forecasts regarding inflation and GDP growth in 2018 look quite realistic. So, the GDP growth of Australia in 2018 should be 3.0%, unemployment will decrease, and the growth rate of wages should accelerate.
The minutes of the September 5 meeting of the RBA on Tuesday show that the scale of employment growth indicates that the economy of the country has overcome all the difficulties associated with changes in activity in the mining sector.
Nevertheless, today the Australian dollar – is in the leaders of decline against the US dollar. As you know, yesterday the Fed made it clear that it could raise interest rates again this year and next month it will start selling previously purchased treasury bonds. At the moment, the portfolio of assets of the Federal Reserve is about 4.5 trillion dollars, and reducing the balance of the Fed will be tantamount to tightening monetary policy.
The prospect of raising interest rates is negative for commodities, the price of which is expressed in US dollars. The probability of an increase in rates in 2017, according to the CME Group, is now more than 68% against 41% a week earlier.
Australia is the largest exporter of primary commodities, including iron ore, liquefied gas. The strategic partner of Australia and the buyer of its primary commodities is China.
Today, Standard & Poor's downgraded China's credit rating to A + from AA-. Now the S & amp; P rating corresponds to the Moody's rating, lowered in May, and the Fitch rating, which was lowered in 2013. And it also affects the Australian dollar, putting pressure on him.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT) a number of macro data will be published, including the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, which contains data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The result higher than expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to grow to 300,000 from 284,000 in the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar.
Nevertheless, the pressure on the AUD / USD pair in the absence of important news from this country is likely to remain until the end of the week.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The AUD/USD today broke through two important support levels of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7950 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and develops a downward correction to the support level of 0.7905 ( EMA50 on the daily chart).
Deeper downward correction, while maintaining a general upward positive medium-term dynamics, is allowed up to the support level of 0.7850 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830 level). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
Despite today's decline, the pair AUD / USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 0.8160 (50% Fibonacci level).
The return above the level of 0.8000 will cause the resumption of purchases of the pair AUD / USD.
You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7850.
In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7700 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the pair AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Support levels: 0.7905, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7700
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7960. Take-Profit 0.7905, 0.7850, 0.7800
Buy Stop 0.7960. Stop-Loss 0.7930. Take-Profit 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160




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  #93  
Old 22-09-2017, 11:58
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XAU/USD: the price of gold has stopped falling
22/09/2017
Current dynamics

North Korea once again threatened to test a nuclear bomb, and again quotations of gold prices crawled up. Foreign Minister Li Yong-ho said on Thursday that his country could conduct the most powerful test of a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. This threat came in response to a speech by President Donald Trump at the UN, which said that if the US or its allies were threatened, the United States could completely destroy North Korea.
Geopolitical tensions are one of the main factors in the growth of gold prices. And today the threat of a new aggravation of the geopolitical situation on the Korean peninsula outweighs another important fundamental factor - expectations of a further increase in the interest rate in the United States.
As you know, the Fed signaled on Wednesday that it still expects another increase in interest rates before the end of this year, and plans to begin a gradual reduction in its assets portfolio in October.
According to the CME, investors are currently assessing the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the end of the year at about 70%, while as recently as last week - less than 40%.
Assets deemed reliable, such as the yen, franc, gold, came under pressure following Fed statements. Gold fell in price yesterday to 1290.00 dollars per ounce, approaching the minimum since the end of August.
With an increase in interest rates, precious metals, including gold, usually become cheaper, if the geopolitical situation at this time remains stable. Gold, which does not bring investment income and can not compete with more profitable assets, becomes cheaper, as the cost of borrowing for its acquisition and storage grows with an increase in the interest rate.
From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 13:45 (GMT) will be published indices (preliminary values) of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors of the US (for September). It is expected that the indices will come out with slight deviations from the values for the previous month. Nevertheless, the values of the indicators are well above 50, which is a positive factor for the US dollar. If the data prove to be better than the forecast values, the dollar will get a good support, including in the pair XAU/USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today and during the Asian session, the price of gold has resumed growth.
At the beginning of the European session, the pair XAU / USD is trading near the 1295.00 mark, through which the support level passes and the EMA50 line on the daily chart.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on different time frames show a multidirectional dynamics.
It is likely that in the short term, with a decrease in geopolitical tensions, the growth of the dollar will continue, and the price of gold will remain under pressure, again until the next aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the world and on the Korean Peninsula.
The fundamental background (tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for further reduction of XAU / USD.
In the case of consolidation below the level of 1295.00, the target of the decline will be support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1262.00 (EMA200, the lower limit of the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts).
The breakdown of the key support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50.0% of the correction to the fall wave from July 2016, EMA144 on the weekly chart) will provoke further decline in the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance level of 1304.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of fastening above the resistance level 1312.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the growth of the pair XAU / USD will resume with the nearest target of 1357.00 (annual highs). The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). In this case, the upward trend of XAU / USD, which began in January 2016, will resume.
Support levels: 1295.00, 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1304.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1289.00. Stop-Loss 1302.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1302.00. Stop-Loss 1289.00. Take-Profit 1304.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00




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  #94  
Old 25-09-2017, 11:59
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EuroStoxx50: after the elections in Germany
25/09/2017
Current dynamics

After the elections in Germany, held last weekend, the euro is traded with a decrease of 0.4%, to 1.1880. Investors analyze the results of the elections, and the auctions on the world stock exchanges are multidirectional.
Angela Merkel secured a fourth term in the Chancellor's chair, however, the party headed by her "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU) will receive 33% of the vote in the German parliament, this is the weakest result for this party since 1949. None of the parties won a parliamentary majority. The surprise was that the extremely right-wing party "Alternative for Germany" won seats in the parliament. Now the victorious Christian Democratic Union will be forced to form a coalition, most likely with the Free Democratic Party and the "green", which will create some political uncertainty in Germany, whose economy is the largest in the entire economy of the Eurozone.
The yield of 10-year government bonds in Germany fell to 0.445% today from the level of 0.450%, noted on Friday. The StoxxEurope600 index gained 0.1% at the beginning of the session, the DAX30 and EuroSTOXX50 indexes also slightly increased at the beginning of the European session. All European stock indexes, in contrast to the British FTSE100 and American indices, retain positive dynamics.
Later today (13:00 GMT) ECB President Mario Draghi should make a speech. It is unlikely that he will say anything new about the monetary policy in the Eurozone. Although, there may be surprises. Mario Draghi is famous for being able to develop markets. Most likely, Mario Draghi will again decide to support the European stock market and remind us of the ECB's inclination to soft politics.
A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve are also scheduled for today. Among the speakers - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dadley, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the Committee on Open Markets of the Federal Reserve Bank Charles Evans.
By the way, the representative of the Federal Reserve John Williams said on Friday that the Fed is likely to raise the key rate in December, but it will very slowly raise the key rate over the next two years, as well as the fact that the neutral interest rate, in his opinion, is at 2.5%.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After in May the EuroStoxx50 index reached the annual maximum near the 3680.0 mark, a downward correction began against the background of the strengthening of the euro. The EuroStoxx50 index fell to the level of 3400.0. In the current month, the EuroStoxx50 index was able to completely "beat off" the losses of the previous two months, and at the moment EuroStoxx50 is trading near the 3535.0 mark.
Nevertheless, the negative dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index may again return.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions. Sooner or later, the ECB will have to return to consideration of the issue of curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone, and this is a negative strong fundamental factor.
While the EuroStoxx50 is trading above the 3485.0 support level (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart), bulls can be calm.
The first signal for the trend reversal and the opening of short positions will be a breakdown of the support level of 3505.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The breakdown of support levels 3415.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 3400.0 will be a turning point in the development of the bearish trend. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 3295.0 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth wave from July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0 and the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
The scenario for growth is related to the breakdown of the local resistance level of 3555.0 and further strengthening with the target at the level of 3590.0.
For now, short positions are preferable until the situation around the QE program becomes clear.
Support levels: 3505.0, 3485.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Resistance levels: 3555.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 3518.0. Stop-Loss 3555.0. Take-Profit 3505.0, 3485.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Buy Stop 3555.0. Stop-Loss 3518.0. Take-Profit 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0
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  #95  
Old 26-09-2017, 11:18
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Brent: oil prices jumped on Monday
26/09/2017
Overview and dynamics

Yesterday, oil prices rose sharply. According to analysts of the oil market, several factors contributed to this.
The first reason is the strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in connection with the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan. Prices jumped after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to close the oil pipeline, through which Kurdistan oil is supplied to the world market.
On the other hand, although the meeting of OPEC and a number of other oil-producing countries held on Friday did not lead to an extension of the contract for limiting production, a statement was made about a higher degree of compliance with quotas. In addition, a number of countries signaled their readiness to extend the deal to reduce production in 2018.
As a result, on Monday, oil prices reached a maximum in more than two years. The barrel of Brent crude oil was worth 58.55 dollars at the end of yesterday's trading day.
At the auctions in Asia today oil continued to go up. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures Europe rose 0.08% to 59.07 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude oil reached 58.80, the highest level in the last two years.
However, at the beginning of the European session, the price of oil is falling, including because of the strengthening dollar.
Today at 16:45 (GMT), the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will start in Cleveland, and on Thursday the vice-chairman Stanley Fischer will speak. Last week, the Fed hinted that this year it could raise rates again. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the probability of an interest rate increase in December at 72.8%. And now investors are hoping to get new information about the course of monetary policy of the Fed.
Today (at 20:30 GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US. If the API report indicates a reduction in stocks, then oil prices will receive additional support. The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 2.296 million barrels, which should also support prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price for Brent crude oil broke yesterday the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart and reached the level of 58.45 (highs of 2017). The last time at these levels the price was two years ago, in July 2015. The price has been growing for the third month in a row, keeping positive dynamics above the key support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the weekly chart.
The decline scenario will be associated with a return to the level 54.70 inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) . The breakdown of support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) raises the risks of price return to the bearish trend with targets at support levels of 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level) 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
So far, positive dynamics have prevailed. Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.
The next medium-term goal in the case of continued growth will be the resistance level of 62.00, near which the lines EMA144, EMA200 pass on the monthly chart.
Support levels: 58.00, 57.45, 56.75, 55.85, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.50, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 58.45, 59.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 57.70. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 57.45, 56.75, 55.85, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.50, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 58.20. Stop-Loss 57.70. Take-Profit 58.45, 59.00, 60.00



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  #96  
Old 27-09-2017, 11:51
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S&P500: dollar and indices grow
27/09/2017
Current dynamics

Today, the financial markets are growing dollar and the resumption of growth in US stock indices. The dollar strengthened after comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, which increased the likelihood of another increase in interest rates. On Tuesday, Yellen spoke in support of the central bank's plan to raise interest rates.
"It would be unreasonable to pursue an unchanged monetary policy until inflation returned to 2%," Yellen said. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in December at 83.1%, while the previous day it was 72.3%. Nevertheless, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets is growing again. Yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.290% from yesterday's level of 2.229%.
Long-term soft monetary policy has become an important fundamental factor for the growth of the stock market. Now many investors believe that the stock market is able to cope with the gradual tightening of the policy.
As the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, said earlier, the possibility of a gradual tightening of monetary policy speaks about the strength of the American economy. One increase in rates is not enough to break the bull market. More important factors are the strong corporate reports of US companies, the stable state of the labor market and the growth of the US GDP.
Today, the administration of the US president and the Republican leaders in the congress will publicize a preliminary tax reform plan that provides for tax cuts on citizens and the US company, and will allow the return of trillions of dollars invested abroad, Trump said. Until now, stock markets have ignored the failures of the administration of the US president, relying mainly on the strong reports of US companies and macro statistics. If the preliminary tax reform plan is adopted in the congress, it will also support the US stock market. Donald Trump's speech should begin at 21:00 (GMT).
In general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Last week, the S & P500 index updated its annual high near the 2507.0 mark, however, it subsequently fell against the backdrop of an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Today, the index resumed growth, trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 2500.0.
In general, the positive dynamics of the index remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. There is a possibility of further growth in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts. In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 2507.0 (annual and absolute highs), the index's growth will continue.
In case of a breakdown of the short-term support level 2496.5 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), a downward correction is possible to the support levels 2478.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2472.0 (EMA50 and the middle of the uplink on the daily chart).
The medium-term upward movement of the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support level of 2386.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Only the breakdown of the support level of 2348.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) could significantly increase the risk of the S & P500 returning to a downtrend.
Support levels: 2496.5, 2478.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0, 2348.0
Resistance Levels: 2507.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2492.0. Stop-Loss 2504.0. Objectives 2490.0, 2478.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0
Buy Stop 2504.0 Stop-Loss 2492.0. Objectives 2507.0, 2510.0




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  #97  
Old 28-09-2017, 11:17
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NZD/USD: RBNZ keeps rate at current level
28/09/2017
Current dynamics

As expected, the RB of New Zealand maintained the current interest rate at the current level of 1.75%. The RBNZ meeting under the leadership of the new manager Grant Spencer took place after the general elections in New Zealand, which did not bring an obvious result. Previously published GDP data showed only a moderate recovery in the country's economic growth after six months of slowdown. At the same time, inflation in the second quarter weakened to 1.7%, which is below the midpoint of the target range of the central bank. If, however, New Zealand begins a period of political instability, then this will have the most negative impact on the national currency of the country.
The New Zealand dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBNZ. At the same time, the US dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market, including against the New Zealand dollar. The next round of escalation of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula negatively affects the quotations of currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, including the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.
Yesterday, the US Republican Party published a draft tax reform, which, according to their calculations, will revitalize the economy, and this week's speech by representatives of the Fed increased investor confidence that interest rates will be raised again in December. The index of the dollar WSJ, which estimates its rate to a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to the level of 86.59 after rising by 0.5% on Wednesday, when it achieved the maximum three-day growth since the beginning of the year.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.352% from 2.309% on Thursday, while earlier it showed the highest daily gain since March, indicating an increase in the propensity of investors to buy more risky assets of the US stock market. The growth in the yield of US bonds is accompanied, as a rule, by the growth of quotations of the US dollar.
Investors began to assess the higher probability of a third rate increase this year, which supports the dollar, as this increases the profitability of US assets. According to the CME Group, investors are now expecting an increase in Fed rates by the end of this year with a probability of 83%.
Of the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 12:30 and 13:30 (GMT) of a block of important macro statistics for the US, including the inflation index of personal consumption expenditure and annual GDP data for the second quarter (adjusted values). It is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter was 3% (in annual terms), which will support the US dollar.
Also at 13:45 and 14:15, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Esther George and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak. It is likely that they will support the head of the Fed and will also speak in favor of a third interest rate increase this year that will also support the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
The NZD / USD pair declines for the fourth consecutive day after the elections in New Zealand last weekend.
At the beginning of the European session, the pair NZD / USD is trading near a strong support level of 0.7180 (EMA200 on the daily chart), restraining the pair from further decline.
In case of breakdown of this level, the NZD / USD pair decline will accelerate.
The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).
The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.
An alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the resistance levels of 0.7240
(the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7250 (EMA200 on the 1-hour graph0, 0.7265 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
The nearest target in case of continuation of growth will be resistance level 0.7430 (September highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7100, 0.7080
Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7265

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7160. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900
Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



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  #98  
Old 29-09-2017, 11:30
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GBP/USD: pound decreased on data
29/09/2017
Current dynamics

As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview with the BBC, the central bank of the UK will raise the key interest rate if the UK economy continues to move the current rate.
"If the economy will move the current course, then it may be appropriate to raise rates", - said Carney. This increase, in his opinion, could take place quite soon.
The pound reacted rather weakly to this statement of Mark Carney. Moreover, at the beginning of the European session, the pound declined after the published data showed that the current account deficit of the UK's balance of payments in the second quarter significantly exceeded the forecast (16.00 billion pounds), reaching 23.2 billion pounds. At the same time, GDP growth in the second quarter was confirmed at 0.3%.
Nevertheless, the pair GBP / USD closes the month and the third quarter with a gain, despite the decline for the second week in a row.
The expectation of an early interest rate increase in the UK contributes to the purchase of the pound and the growth of its quotes. Earlier, the Bank of England repeatedly signaled that it was preparing for the first more than a 10-year rate hike to limit inflation. Many economists expect that the first increase may take place in November.
For today, another performance by Mark Carney (14:45 GMT) is planned. From it, participants in financial markets are waiting to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the central bank of Great Britain. If Mark Carney touches on the topic of monetary policy and confirms the plans of the Bank of England for a rapid increase in the interest rate in the UK, the pound will once again strengthen in the currency market, including the GBP / USD pair.
Of the news for today, we also expect data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) will be published a report of the US Department of Commerce with data on personal income / expenditure of Americans and price indices (for August). If the data prove to be better than forecasted values (slight growth of indicators is expected), the dollar will grow on the foreign exchange market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, the GBP / USD pair continues its corrective decline after active growth at the beginning of the month. Yesterday, GBP / USD broke the short-term support level 1.3437 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline to support levels 1.3235 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in wave , which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.
The breakdown of these levels will cause a deeper correction to the support level of 1.3135 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
While the pair GBP / USD is trading above support level 1.2960 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP / USD remains.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3437, the resumption of growth is likely with the targets of 1.3260 (highs of August), 1.3460 (July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit), 1.3630, 1.3780 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.3375, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3345. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900
Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3345. Take-Profit 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780



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  #99  
Old 02-10-2017, 10:55
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Brent: oil prices are falling
02/10/2017
Current dynamics

At the beginning of the new month and quarter, oil prices are declining. The latest monthly data showed that the volume of oil production in the US in July rose compared with June. According to the report of the Ministry of Energy on Friday, oil production in the US in July was 9.2 million barrels per day compared to 9.1 million barrels in June.
Investors continued to record profit after strong growth of quotations in the 3rd quarter.
Quotes of oil at NYMEX finished last quarter with a growth of 12.2% after a decline in the previous two quarters. Growth has become the strongest since the second quarter of 2016.
In September, WTI oil prices rose by 9.4% amid renewed hopes for the efforts of OPEC and other producers to reduce the world's surplus of oil. In addition, concerns about a recent Kurdish referendum appeared on the market, which could lead to a reduction in supply. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to block the export of Kurdish oil going through Turkey. If its threats are real, then soon the growth of oil prices may follow. Demand for oil in the US also increased, as the refinery recovered after Hurricane Harvey and regained activity.
On the other hand, there are fears that US producers will continue to increase production even faster to take advantage of the situation of rising prices.
According to data provided by the oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday, the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose for the first time in seven weeks. The rise in prices contributed to an increase in activity in the US oil-extracting sector.
Trading volumes in Asia on Monday were small, as the markets of China, South Korea, India and Hong Kong are closed for the weekend. Since the markets of China and South Korea will be closed all week, this could weaken activity in commodity markets and put pressure on oil prices.
On Tuesday (at 20:30 GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US. If the API report points to an increase in stocks, this will put additional pressure on oil prices. The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude oil broke through the short-term support level of 56.60 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and develops a downward trend to key support levels of 55.70 (EMA50 on the monthly chart), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart).
At the end of last month, the price reached the level of 58.80 (highs of 2017). The last time at these levels the price was two years ago, in July 2015. Here, the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
If the price falls below the level of 54.70, inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), increase risks of resuming the downtrend with targets at 51.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart ).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
The resumption of growth will be associated with the return of prices in the zone above the level of 56.60. The next medium-term goal in the case of continued growth will be the resistance level of 62.00, near which the lines EMA144, EMA200 pass on the monthly chart.
Support levels: 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 56.60, 57.50, 58.80

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 56.70. Take-Profit 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 56.70. Stop-Loss 55.90. Take-Profit 57.50, 58.45, 59.00, 60.00



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  #100  
Old 03-10-2017, 11:10
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DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
03/10/2017
Current dynamics

US stock markets on Tuesday continue to grow after positive US economic data on Monday led to the growth of US indices to record highs.
The ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector for September was 60.8 (the forecast was 58.0, the previous value was 58.8). Thus, activity in the US manufacturing sector in September reached a 13-year high, surpassing the expectations of economists.
The construction costs index in the US in August was 0.5% (the forecast was 0.4%, the previous value -1.2%). The index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM for September was 71.5 (the forecast was 64.0, the previous value of 62.0).
Another portion of strong macro data showed that the US economy is currently demonstrating a stable state and growth.
Investors are betting on strengthening economic growth and tightening monetary policy in the United States. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan on Monday did not exclude the possibility of raising the interest rates of the Fed this year. "We need to think about taking measures in December", Kaplan said.
The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds today rose to 2.347% from the level of 2,337%, recorded on Monday. The index of the dollar WSJ rose by 0.2% after reaching a maximum from the end of July to 87.00. The increase in the dollar is also accompanied by an increase in the yield of US government bonds. Investors continue to withdraw funds from assets-shelters, such as franc, yen, gold, and actively "invested" in the assets of the American stock market, contributing to the further growth of stock indices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The DJIA index continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart and is traded today at the upper border of this channel near the 22600.0 mark, the absolute and annual maximum.
Reducing geopolitical risks, fears about the consequences of hurricanes in the US, as well as a portion of positive macro data from the US, which increase the likelihood of an increase in the interest rate in December, contributes to an increase in investors' appetite for the purchase of risky assets.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) recommend long positions on 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.
Return to consideration of short positions is possible only after the breakthrough of the important support level 22140.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The target of the decrease may be support levels of 21500.0, 21100.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20980.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 22177.0).
DJIA maintains positive long-term dynamics. Breakdown of the local resistance level 22600.0 will signal the continuation of the growth of the index.
Support levels: 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21100.0, 20980.0, 20630.0
Resistance levels: 22600.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 22400.0. Take-Profit 22650.0, 23000.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 22400.0. Stop-Loss 22620.0. Take-Profit 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21100.0, 20980.0, 20630.0




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  #101  
Old 04-10-2017, 10:57
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Brent: gasoline stocks rose
04/10/2017
Current dynamics

As the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported yesterday in its weekly report on oil and petroleum products, crude oil inventories in the USA fell by 4.1 million barrels over the past week, while gasoline stocks increased by 4.2 million barrels, which significantly exceeded forecasts of analysts of the oil market. The growth in gasoline stocks signals a forthcoming drop in demand for oil from US refineries, which is a negative factor for oil prices.
During today's Asian session, oil prices fell to nearly 2-week lows, while WTI oil traded near a psychologically important level of $ 50 per barrel. November futures for light sweet crude on the NYMEX traded at $ 50.10 per barrel, with a decrease of $ 0.32 per barrel. December futures for Brent crude fell 0.48% to 55.73 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude was at the beginning of today's European session near the mark of $ 55.50 per barrel.
After last week, the price of Brent crude oil has reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 58.80, for the seventh consecutive day the price is falling. Investors record profits after oil prices in the third quarter jumped by more than 12%.
Investors also assess signs of increased oil production. OPEC's production in September was 32.86 million barrels a day, up from the previous month and above the agreed aggregate production ceiling of the cartel (just under 32 million barrels per day), which indicates a violation of OPEC's agreement to cut production.
On the other hand, American producers are resuming production growth, taking advantage of the situation with rising prices. According to data provided by the oil service company Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday, the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose for the first time in seven weeks, to 750 units. The rise in prices contributed to an increase in activity in the US oil-extracting sector.
Another point, negative for the dynamics of oil prices, is the seasonal decline in demand for oil in the autumn period.
The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). If he also points to the growth of oil products, primarily gasoline, then oil prices will continue to decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts give signals to short positions.
The price for Brent crude oil is falling to the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour, weekly charts).
An alternative scenario will be associated with a price return to the zone above the level of 55.70 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and EMA50 on the monthly chart).
The immediate goal in case of resumption of growth is level 56.60. The next medium-term target will be the level of resistance at 62.00, near which there are EMA144, EMA200 lines on the monthly chart. But you can talk about this goal only after the price will update the annual maximum near the level of 58.80.
So far, negative dynamics have prevailed. If the price falls below the level of 54.70, inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), increase risks of resuming the downtrend with targets at 51.80 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart ).
Support levels: 55.70, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 56.60, 57.50, 58.80

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 55.85. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.80, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 55.85. Stop-Loss 55.20. Take-Profit 56.60, 57.50, 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 62.00




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  #102  
Old 05-10-2017, 11:27
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USD/CHF: the dollar is stable
05/10/2017
Current dynamics

As reported today by the Federal Office of Statistics of Switzerland, the CPI of Switzerland in September increased by 0.2% and 0.7% in annual terms (forecast was + 0.6% and + 0.5% in August). The consumer price index measures the average change in prices for all goods and a service purchased by households for personal consumption, and is a key indicator of inflation. The Swiss National Bank adheres to the policy of extra soft monetary policy and traditionally declares about the overvaluation of the Swiss franc and its high exchange rate.
The Swiss franc has reacted with a decline in the publication of data, including against the dollar, which remains the leader in the foreign exchange market, pending the publication on Friday of key data on the labor market in the US for September.
Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.
Also, investors are interested in whom US President Donald Trump recommends to the position of the head of the Federal Reserve after the term of office of the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen expires in February.
The candidatures of the current Fed governor Jerome Powell and former manager Kevin Warsh are being considered. Unlike Powell, Warsh is an ardent critic of the Fed and an opponent of the quantitative easing program. Kevin Warsh is known as an opponent of super-soft monetary policy, while Jerome Powell is a supporter of Yellen.
The change in the leadership of the US central bank can significantly affect the prospects for monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy usually provides support to the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors seeking to profitability.
Also today, volatility in the foreign exchange market could rise sharply from 11:30 (GMT), when information is published from the ECB's September meeting on monetary policy. The information contained in the protocols can shed light on the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone.
At 13:10, 13:15, 14:00 (GMT), speeches of FRS management members Jerome Powell, John Williams and Patrick Harker are scheduled. It is likely that they will also speak in favor of another increase in the interest rate in the US before the end of the year, which the dollar will support.

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the European session, the pair USD / CHF is trading near the key resistance levels 0.9765 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.9770 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300).
Concerns about geopolitical tensions have declined, and the dollar has received support from the Fed, which confirmed its intention to raise the rate in December, and from positive US macro data coming in recently.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
Breakdown of resistance levels 0.9765, 0.9770 will provoke further growth of USD / CHF with targets at the levels of 0.9840, 0.9875 (Fibonacci level of 50%).
The alternative scenario involves breakdown of support levels 0.9730 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and further decline with targets at support levels 0.9650 (Fibonacci level 23.6% and EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 0.9300 (lower limit downlink on the weekly chart).
So far, long positions are preferable.
Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9770, 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9780. Stop-Loss 0.9740. Take-Profit 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9875
Sell Stop 0.9740. Stop-Loss 0.9780. Take-Profit 0.9700, 0.9670, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300



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  #103  
Old 06-10-2017, 11:50
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XAU/USD: dollar and labor market data in the US - the focus of traders
06/10/2017
Current dynamics

In recent days, gold prices have been under pressure amid strong US economic data. They strengthened expectations of another increase in interest rates before the end of the year. With an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of gold usually falls, if the calm geopolitical and financial and economic situation in the world also contributes to this.
According to CME Group, the markets take into account the 83% chance of raising rates this year against 44% a month ago.
With an increase in interest rates, precious metals, including gold, usually become cheaper, if the geopolitical situation at this time remains stable. Gold, which does not bring investment income and can not compete with more profitable assets, becomes cheaper, as the cost of borrowing for its acquisition and storage grows with an increase in the interest rate.
The volume of trading is not large before the publication today at 12:30 (GMT) of the report on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture. Some economists believe that a significant increase in jobs would justify another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System before the end of this year. If NFP grows by less than 100,000, the dollar may fall sharply.
At the same time, the market can ignore NFP data, because the number of employees could have decreased due to recent hurricanes. The most important detail in the report on US employment may be a pay indicator. For five consecutive months, the growth of salaries in the US remained unchanged at 2.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. Now it is expected that the indicator will remain unchanged. This is a negative factor for the dollar, despite the fact that unemployment will remain at the same low level of 4.4%.
In any case, at 12:30 (GMT) we should expect a dramatic surge in volatility, not only in gold prices, but throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions. The most cautious trading position for today is to stay out of the market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is trading in a narrow range near the support level 1270.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the support level of 1262.00 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). The immediate target is the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). Breakdown of the key support level of 1248.00 will provoke a further decline in the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.
The fundamental background (tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for further reduction of XAU / USD, unless there is another escalation of geopolitical tensions, including on the Korean peninsula.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further growth with a long target of 1357.00 (annual highs). The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1277.00, 1293.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1275.00. Take-Profit 1262.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1275.00. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1290.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



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  #104  
Old 09-10-2017, 12:01
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EUR/USD: investors believe in the future of the European economy
09/10/2017
Current dynamics

As the indicator of Sentix investors' confidence published today shows, investors believe in the future of the European economy. This is the leading indicator of the economic health of the Eurozone, as changes in investor sentiment may be an early signal for future economic activity.
For October, the indicator Sentix came out with a value of 29.7 (forecast was 28.5 and 28.2 in the previous month). In the monthly survey of Sentix, 1,600 financial analysts and investors participate, and this is the highest value of the indicator since March 2008 and since July 2016.
According to the report, the mood of investors was practically not affected by the results of the elections to the German Bundestag, where the ruling "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU) received 33% of the votes of the deputies - the weakest result for this party since 1949. New elections in Germany are unlikely, but it is possible that if the winning ruling party, Angela Merkel, has problems in finding supporters for the bloc. Political instability in this country could have the most negative impact on the positions of the single currency.
The referendum in Catalonia also seems to have had little effect on investor sentiment.
The German industrial production figures published in August show that the country's economy has overcome the seasonal decline and has returned to growth. Germany's industrial production in August grew by 2.6% compared with July (forecast was + 0.7%).
Production orders in Germany in August rose by 3.6% (+ 0.7% in the previous report) and 7.8% in annual terms (+ 4.7% in the previous report). At the same time, export orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany grew by 4.3%. Such positive data were presented by the Statistical Office of Germany last Friday. The latest data show a positive outlook for Germany's GDP growth in the third quarter.
Germany remains the center of the European Union, and its economy is the locomotive of the European economy. Positive macro statistics from Germany can testify to positive growth prospects not only of the German, but of the entire Eurozone economy.
Today in the US is a day off (Columbus Day). American exchanges are closed, so the trading volume will be low.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The EUR/USD continues to trade near the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart, passing near the mark 1.1705.
The breakdown of the support level 1.1705 will provoke a decline to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The break of this level will open the way to support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
The alternative scenario involves the return of the EUR/USD to the zone above the resistance levels 1.1780 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.1820 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50%). The first signal for growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.1705, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1765, 1.1780, 1.1820, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1710. Stop-Loss 1.1770. Take-Profit 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400
Buy Stop 1.1770. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1820, 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180




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  #105  
Old 10-10-2017, 10:48
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XAU/USD: growing geopolitical tensions provoked purchases of gold
10/10/2017
Current dynamics

Increasing anxiety about possible geopolitical shocks again creates prerequisites for a rise in gold prices. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump again announced the possibility of a military solution to the conflict with North Korea. On Sunday, the US and Turkey mutually suspended the issuance of nonimmigrant visas. In addition, at the weekend in Barcelona, protest rallies were held regarding the outcome of the referendum in Catalonia. Today, the President of Catalonia Carles Puicdemont must speak in the regional parliament. It can proclaim the independence of the region, which can cause the volatility to increase in trading on financial markets and again increase the demand for gold.
On Monday, December gold futures for COMEX closed with an increase of 0.8%, at a level of 1285 US dollars per troy ounce. The spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session was near the mark of 1290.00 dollars per ounce.
Meanwhile, traders continue to study the US labor market report published on Friday, which strengthened investors' expectations about the December rate hikes. In periods of rising interest rates, gold prospects deteriorate as gold can not compete with more profitable assets, such as treasury bonds, as the cost of acquiring and storing gold increases.
The Fed regularly reminds that it will not abandon its plan to gradually raise interest rates, and this is a negative factor for the price of gold.
Market participants will study the text of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee, which will be published on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) to understand how the Fed's FOMC members' rhetoric has changed about interest rate plans. According to the CME Group, the markets take into account the 85% chance of raising rates this year against 44% a month ago.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the 1290.00 mark and the resistance level (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
The scenario for strengthening the XAU/USD is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00 and further growth with a long target of 1357.00 (annual highs).
The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
The reverse scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) and further decrease to the key support level of 1262.00 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will provoke further decline of the XAU/USD and its return to the downtrend.
The fundamental background (the tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for the reduction of XAU/USD. However, the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world again brings buyers back to the gold market.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1290.00, 1293.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1294.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1294.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1300.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



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  #106  
Old 11-10-2017, 11:05
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EUR/USD: euro at the crossroads
11/10/2017
Current dynamics

Today, the euro is trading higher; receiving support after the President of Catalonia Carles Puicdemont said that he is postponing the declaration of independence. Yesterday in Barcelona, a declaration was adopted on the independence of Catalonia from Spain, however, the head of the Catalan government Carles Puicdemont said that "Catalonia should become independent, but it is impossible to hurry with this". The growth of the single European currency is limited, although the euro rose to 2-week highs against the US dollar and the Swiss franc, as investors await the reaction of Madrid.
The response statement of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may become a key factor determining the direction of the euro in the future until the October ECB meeting (October 26), when the question of the prospects for curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone will be again decided.
At the same time, today investors will study the text of the minutes from the September meeting of the Fed, which will be published at 18:00 (GMT).
As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and FOMC member Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, "if we wait too long for signs of accelerating inflation, then we will have to raise interest rates at a higher rate. In this case, the probability of a recession in the US economy will increase".
Earlier (last week) another Fed representative, FOMC member John Williams, said in the same vein that he "still considers it expedient to have another interest rate increase in 2017 and three rate hikes in 2018, which corresponds to a gradual rate of tightening policy".
Two representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Charles Evans (11:15 GMT) and John Williams (18:40 GMT) are scheduled for today. It is likely that the dollar will receive support from their speeches, as they are likely to come forward in support of the Fed's plans for a phased tightening of monetary policy.
According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in interest rates in the US by the end of this year at 88% versus 31% a month ago after the publication of a report on the labor market in the US last Friday. Despite the fact that the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in September decreased for the first time in seven years (by 33,000), the unemployment rate in September fell by 0.2 percentage points, to 4.2%, which was the lowest since the beginning 2001.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at an important short-term resistance level 1.1815 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), maintaining a positive momentum.
The signal for further growth will be a breakdown of the local resistance level at 1.1845 (today's highs). In this case, the EUR/USD growth will resume within the upward channel on the weekly chart. The target of the growth is the mark 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).
An alternative scenario for the decline involves a breakdown of the support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) and a drop to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Medium-term reduction targets after the breakdown of the level of 1.1630 – are support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6%).
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1815, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1790. Stop-Loss 1.1850. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400
Buy Stop 1.1850. Stop-Loss 1.1790. Take-Profit 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180



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  #107  
Old 12-10-2017, 11:49
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DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
12/10/2017
Current dynamics

US stock markets on Wednesday continued to grow after Wednesday's (18:00 GMT) punctures were published punctuated by the September meeting of the Fed.
The minutes said that while many members of the committee still expect another rate hike in 2017, some of them admit the temporary nature of low inflation in the US, which encourages them to take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates.
The protocols indicate that the Fed leaders have not yet reached a consensus on inflation, which could increase uncertainty about monetary policy in the coming months. "It is noted that it is necessary to maintain patience with curtailing soft policies, assessing inflation trends," the protocols say. Chicago Fed president FOMC member Charles Evans said yesterday that he is "a little concerned" about whether it's worth raising rates again if inflation does not accelerate. Another member of the FOMC, Robert Kaplan, who is the president of the Fed-Dallas, also said that he had not yet decided whether he would vote for a rate hike in December.
According to the CME Group futures market, the probability of an increase in the Fed's interest rate in December is 82.9% versus 93.1% before the publication of the minutes.
All three major US stock indexes rose again, reaching new record highs yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 22872.00, the S & P500 rose 0.2% to 2,555.00, the Nasdaq Composite - up 0.3% to 6603.00.
American stock indexes continued to grow actively from the end of last month, when
Republicans presented in the US Congress their plan to reform the tax code, suggesting significantly lower taxes for companies and many individuals. This again revived hopes that the Trump administration will be able to take measures that will support economic growth.
Low inflation does not allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. In combination with strong macroeconomic data, this gives grounds to market participants to continue investing in high-risk high-risk assets of the US stock market, which is reflected in the growth of indices.
As the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, stated today, the US economy "is firmly on its feet, and there are some signs that such a picture will continue to be observed." According to Bostic, GDP growth will be about 2%, and the hurricanes that hit the country in recent months are unlikely to disrupt the recovery.
At 14:30 (GMT) today, representatives of the Federal Reserve, members of the FOMC Lel Brainard and Jerome Powell, whom US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged US President Donald Trump to appoint as the new chairman of the Fed, will speak today. The appointment of Powell as the head of the central bank is likely to be positively received by market participants.
It's interesting to hear what Powell will say about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy until the end of the year.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The DJIA index continues to grow since January 2016. Yesterday DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the 22865.0 mark, keeping positive dynamics.
Reducing fears about the effects of hurricanes in the United States, positive macro data from the US, as well as the Fed's still obscure overall position on further interest rate hikes amid low inflation, create prerequisites for investors to increase their appetite for buying risky assets.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts recommend long positions.
Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term and only after the breakdown of the support levels 22705.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 22600.0 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
While DJIA is trading above the key support level of 21168.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark of 22177.0), long-term positive dynamics persists.
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 22865.0 will signal the continuation of the growth of the index.
Support levels: 22705.0, 22600.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21168.0
Resistance levels: 22865.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22870.0. Stop-Loss 22750.0. Take-Profit 23000.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 22750.0. Stop-Loss 22870.0. Take-Profit 22705.0, 22600.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21168.0




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  #108  
Old 13-10-2017, 10:38
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GBP/USD: pound grows ahead of BOE meeting in November
Current dynamics
13/10/2017

The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a block of inflation indicators for the US for September. In general, the growth of indicators is expected. Nevertheless, according to many economists, only stronger than expected data can support the dollar. Moreover, for the stable growth of the dollar, it will take inflation to show good results within a few months.
Among the indicators published today in the US:
1) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a key indicator for assessing inflation. The forecast: + 0.6% (against + 0.4%, according to the previous report),
2) The level of retail sales. This is the main indicator of consumer spending. The report is leading, and further data can be heavily revised. The forecast: +1,7% (against -0,2%, according to the previous report).
In addition, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of four representatives of the Federal Reserve: Eric Rosengren, Charles Evans, Stephen Kaplan, and Jerome Powell. Their performances are scheduled for 12:30, 14:25, 15:30, 17:00 (GMT), respectively. In the Fed there is no consensus on the timing of raising the interest rate. And this is holding back the dollar from more active recovery, despite a number of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US recently.
Meanwhile, the pound is growing in the currency market on the eve of the November meeting of the Bank of England, which can go on raising the interest rate amid a sharp increase after the referendum on Brexit inflation in the country, as well as strong macroeconomic indicators.
Thus, the level of retail sales in the UK increased in September by 1.9% (in annual terms), which is better than the forecast (+1.3%). The growth of retail sales indicates an increase in the level of domestic consumption and consumption of consumers in the UK, whose GDP is largely due to the domestic consumption of British people.
Many economists expect that the British pound will grow, as the prospect of an immediate increase in interest rates in the UK pushed fears about Brexit into the background. Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD fell after Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator for Brexit from the EU, said that the negotiations had entered an "alarming" impasse. Then the pound recovered amid reports that the EU could agree to a two-year transition period.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today, the GBP/USD pair is growing for the fifth consecutive day, recovering more than half of last week's losses. It is likely that after a three-week decline, the GBP/USD is corrected. At the moment, GBP/USD is trying to gain a foothold above the important support levels: 1.3227 (EMA200 on 4-hour and 1-hour charts), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP/USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to long positions.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3322 (today's highs), GBP/USD may continue to rise within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near resistance level 1.3745 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
While the GBP/USD pair is trading above the support level of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP/USD is maintained.
Alternative scenario: after the breakdown of support level 1.3175, GBP/USD will go to support level 1.3000, the breakdown of which will increase the risks of GBP/USD return to the global downtrend, which began in July 2014.
Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3435, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3745

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3225, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Buy Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3745



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  #109  
Old 16-10-2017, 12:21
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GBP/USD: Week of publication of important macro data for Great Britain
Current dynamics
16/10/2017

The focus of traders trading in the British pound, this week will be the publication of important macro data on the UK. On Tuesday (08:30 GMT), a block of inflation indicators for the UK for September (indices of producer prices, consumer price indices) will be published. It is expected that annual inflation in September rose to 3.0%, reaching the highest level in more than five years. The increase in inflation was triggered by the weakening of the British pound after the referendum on Brexit, held in the summer of 2016.
Inflation, outstripping the growth of wages, forces the British to limit their spending, which leads to a slowdown in the growth of the British economy, which is largely oriented toward the domestic market.
Also on Tuesday (10:15 GMT) the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled.
On Wednesday (08:30) there will be data on the UK labor market for September, and data may show a drop in the unemployment rate below 4.3%, and on Thursday strong retail sales data may be published.
If the data really justifies expectations and will prove to be strong, market participants will be able to more confidently take into account the increase in the key interest rate at a meeting of the Bank of England on November 2.
Now the probability of an increase in the rate in November is taken into account at the level of 85%. It is likely that the British pound will rise, as the prospect of an increase in interest rates in the UK temporarily pushed fears about Brexit into the background.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of the year, the GBP/USD has been rising in the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near resistance level 1.3760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
As a result of the 5-day growth, the GBP/USD is once again trading above the important support levels of 1.3185 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP/USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 ), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Positive dynamics of the pair supported by positive macro data and the expectation of a rate increase in the UK. If the growth continues, the targets will be the resistance levels 1.3440 (local highs and the middle of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.3630 (annual highs), 1.3760.
While the GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.3000 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the weekly chart), positive medium-term dynamics is maintained.
To review short positions, you can return after the breakdown of the support level of 1.3185. The breakdown of the support level of 1.3000 will increase the risks of GBP/USD return to the global downtrend, which began in July 2014.
Support levels: 1.3230, 1.3210, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3230, 1.3210, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.3000
Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760



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  #110  
Old 17-10-2017, 11:21
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NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of bears
17/10/2017
Current dynamics


The CPI of New Zealand in the third quarter grew by 0.5% (the forecast was +0.4% and 0% in the previous quarter) and 1.9% in annual terms (the forecast was +1.8% and 1.7% in the previous quarter). Such data was published today at the beginning of the trading day by the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. In response to the publication, the New Zealand dollar jumped in price, gaining about 30 points against the US dollar. Later, during the Asian session, the NZD / USD pair declined, however, again moved to positive territory during the first half of the European session.
Despite the 7-day volatile growth of the NZD/USD, the New Zealand currency is experiencing difficulties with growth. This is facilitated by both the US dollar strengthening its positions, and domestic political uncertainty in New Zealand. There is still no government in the country. The elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand did not reveal an absolute winner, and now the National, Labor, Green, ACT and the First Party, which received the majority, will have to form a coalition government. Political uncertainty negatively affects the quotations of the national currency.
Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthens its position in the foreign exchange market. On Monday, Donald Trump confirmed his promise to carry out the tax reform, stating, "I would like it to be over in this calendar year". The leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnel, supported Trump on this issue.
Today, after 14:00 (GMT), the price index for dairy products prepared by Global Dairy Trade will be published. Last time (two weeks ago) the index came out with a value of -2.4% (against the previous value of +0.9%). Dairy products – is one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.
Published today, the consumer price index, although it came out better than the forecast, is in the middle of the target range of the central bank.
At a meeting in late September, the RB of New Zealand maintained the current interest rate at the current level of 1.75%. According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
In the US, further tightening of monetary policy is expected. Investors estimate the probability of a third rate increase this year around 90%, according to the CME Group. This supports the US dollar, as this increases the yield of US assets.
Thus, the fundamental factors are still on the side of the bears in relation to the NZD/USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical analysis
The third day, the NZD / USD pair makes an attempt to break through the strong resistance levels 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7195 (EMA144 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
In case of breaking the nearest short-term support level 0.7144 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will resume, and NZD / USD will go to support levels 0.7080 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 0.7045 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The goal in case of further decline will be the support level of 0.6980 (the lows of July and November 2016). The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.
An alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the resistance level of 0.7195 and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 0.7700 level. The growth targets in this case are the resistance levels of 0.7430 (September highs), 0.7550 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 50% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7700.
Support levels: 0.7144, 0.7080, 0.7045, 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6860
Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7195, 0.7240, 0.7285

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7150. Stop-Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900
Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop-Loss 0.7150. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7285, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550



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  #111  
Old 18-10-2017, 11:12
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EUR/USD: the euro is prone to decline
18/10/2017
Current dynamics

Speaking today at the opening of the conference dedicated to structural reforms held at the ECB headquarters, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, did not concern the monetary policy decisions expected from the ECB on October 26.
Nevertheless, the head of the ECB said that the research "has not revealed convincing evidence that high interest rates promote more active reform. The reverse statement seems more plausible: lower rates usually contribute to reforms, since they create more favorable macroeconomic conditions".
Thus, Draghi once again recalled the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, whose meeting will be held on October 26.
All the attention of investors will now be focused on the speeches of the bank's leaders before this date. To date, two more presentations by ECB representatives are planned: Peter Prat (at 11:45 GMT) and Benoit Car (at 14:15).
Also it is worth paying attention to the speech of representatives of the Fed Robert Kaplan and William Daly (12:00 GMT). As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the member of the FOMC with the right to vote Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, "Given the good state of the US economy, I expect progress (in relation to inflation), which in turn will allow us to continue the gradual abandonment of stimulus measures".
Last Sunday, the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also spoke in the same vein, saying that "the observed strength of the economy justifies a gradual increase" in short-term interest rates in the US.
Published yesterday, data on industrial production in the US for September, confirmed the statements of Kaplan and Yellen. Industrial production grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, despite strong hurricanes that last month. The data indicated a favorable situation in the US industry and strengthened arguments in favor of higher interest rates by the US Federal Reserve at the end of this year.
At the same time, the euro remains under pressure amid an uncertain situation with the independence of Catalonia.
The head of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, did not clarify the question of his declared independence of Catalonia, and now, from October 19, Madrid threatens to end the autonomy of this region of Spain. Any escalation of tension around the situation in Catalonia will negatively affect the euro.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the annual peaks in September close to 1.2090, the EUR/USD is steadily declining to the lower border of the upward channel on the weekly chart and support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
At the beginning of the European session, the EUR/USD is trading below the important level of 1.1780 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), and the trend towards further decline remains.
The signal for resumption of growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1810 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) and the local resistance level 1.1875. In this case, the EUR/USD growth will resume within the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near the resistance level 1.2340 (EMA144 on the monthly chart). The growth targets are level 1.2090 (September highs), 1.2180 (Fibonacci level 50%), 1.2340.
Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1400, 1.1285
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1810, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1720. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400
Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1720. Take-Profit 1.1810, 1.1875, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180



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  #112  
Old 19-10-2017, 11:32
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GBP/USD: GBP down on retail sales data
19/10/2017
Current dynamics

According to official data released on Thursday, in September, as compared to August, retail sales decreased by 0.8% (the forecast was -0.1% and weak growth in August +0.9%).
In the third quarter, compared to the same period last year, retail sales grew by only 1.2%, and this was the weakest annual growth rate in four years.
The decline in retail sales indicates a decline in the standard of living of the British after voting for an exit from the EU, and this is a worrying signal for a UK-dominated economy that is oriented primarily to the domestic market.
The drop in retail sales occurs against the backdrop of accelerated inflation after last year's referendum on withdrawal from the EU, when the pound fell sharply. Growing inflation drags not only producer prices, but also import and consumer prices, which grew by 3% in September (in annual terms), and this growth rate was the fastest in five and a half years.
The growth of consumer prices for eight months in a row exceeds the target level set by the Bank of England at 2%. This is a very strong argument in favor of an early increase in the interest rate. But even though the referendum on Brexit sharply increased in Great Britain last summer, the Bank of England will be very cautious and cautious about tightening monetary policy.
As the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney said on Tuesday, the unsuccessful negotiations on Brexit can carry with them significant economic risks, not only for the UK, but also for the Eurozone.
Many market participants expect that in November the Bank of England will still raise the key interest rate to 0.5% from the current level of 0.25%, and this will be the first rate increase for the decade. Nevertheless, further increases in rates may become difficult on the backdrop of the difficulties of the growth of the British economy due to Brexit.
Thus, the fundamental factors say in favor of weakening the GBP/USD. The growth will be possible against the backdrop of the weakening of the dollar, especially if it again escalates, for example, the geopolitical confrontation on the Korean peninsula, or there will be unexpected news about the change in the leadership of the Fed.
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Support and resistance levels
As early as Tuesday, the GBP/USD broke through the important support levels of 1.3185 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3225 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts), and today the decline continues.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Nevertheless, we can say that the GBP/USD maintains a positive trend, which is supported by positive macro data and the expectation of an early rate hike in the UK.
Since the beginning of the year, GBP / USD continues to trade in the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near resistance level 1.3760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).
In case of returning to the zone above the resistance level 1.3225 and breaking through the local resistance level 1.3335, it is possible to consider long positions with targets at resistance levels 1.3440 (local highs and the middle of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.3630 (annual highs), 1.3760.
For now, short positions with targets near the level of 1.3000 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart) are preferred.
The breakdown of the key support level of 1.3000 will increase the risk of GBP / USD return to the global downtrend that began in July 2014.
Support levels: 1.3120, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Resistance levels: 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3225, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3120. Stop-Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975
Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop-Loss 1.3120. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3225, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760



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  #113  
Old 20-10-2017, 12:00
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USD/JPY: the Nikkei index breaks records, and the yen remains under pressure
20/10/2017
Current dynamics

After a 6-week continuous growth, the Japanese stock index Nikkei reached several multi-year highs, bargaining at the end of today's Asian session near the mark of 21500.00. At the same time, amid the growth of the Japanese stock market, the yen remains under pressure and is down against the dollar, since early September.
This Sunday in Japan, early elections will be held, and it is expected that the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will remain in power. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which contributes to the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.
Head of the Central Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda again promised to continue the implementation of extra soft monetary policy and expressed confidence in the strength of the country's economy. In his opinion, the current policy corresponds to short-term and long-term target levels of the Bank of Japan. "The recent improvement in the situation was caused by the balanced growth of domestic and external demand, and I believe in significant economic growth stability," Kuroda said. At present, the Bank of Japan expects that inflation will reach 2% by March 2020, but this forecast can be revised at the end of October, when the next meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy (October 31) will take place.
At a meeting last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen per year. The head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful mitigation in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".
At the same time, the dollar is growing again in the foreign exchange market. As it became known, the US Senate approved the draft budget 51 votes to 49, which is one of the conditions for unlocking the procedure that the Republicans plan to use to make changes in the taxation system with the help of the votes of only the Republican Party.
"Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration", said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.
The given news stimulated the growth of the dollar. The index of the dollar WSJ rose from the opening of today's trading day at 0.4% and reached a maximum for the month near the 87.00 mark. The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2,360% from the level of 2,323%, recorded on Thursday night in New York.
After yesterday's decline, the pair USD / JPY is rising again today. Tensions between the US and North Korea declined, and investors again returned to buying US assets.
After the release of good economic indicators for the United States, investors say that the interest rates are now more likely to be raised again in December, and the economic growth in the US is stable, investors say in favor of raising the interest rate and receiving encouraging news from the White House.
According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors at 93%.
In general, the fundamental factors say (at the moment) in favor of further growth in the USD/JPY.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
In the course of today's European session, the USD/JPY is trying to develop an upward trend and is making an attempt to break through the resistance level 113.10 (the top line of the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts, as well as the Fibonacci 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and level 99.90).
While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 113.10, the target of the growth will be level 114.40 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 108.10 and 114.40).
The different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan is a powerful fundamental factor in favor of further growth in the USD / JPY.
The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 111.25 and a resumption of decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The nearest targets will be support levels of 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
The signal for opening short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 111.90 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 113.10, 113.50, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 113.50. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.50. Take-Profit 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



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  #114  
Old 23-10-2017, 11:49
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XAU/USD: gold continues to fall in price against the background of dollar strengthening
23/10/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market, and gold - to decline in price amid news and talk about the appointment of President Donald Trump the new chairman of the Fed.
Among the candidates for this post is Stanford University economist John Taylor, who is more inclined to tighten monetary policy than current chairman Janet Yellen. Yes and Janet Yellen herself can count on the extension of her powers after the end of January when 4-year term of her stay at the head of the Fed expires.
If Trump suggests Janet Yellen to remain in office for a second term, it will also become a positive factor for the dollar, as Yellen consistently advocates a phased tightening of monetary policy.
Many economists believe that if the new FRS chairman is appointed, monetary policy in the US will become even more rigid. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in more than 90%.
The index of the dollar WSJ recently added 0.22% to 87.19, while over the past week it grew by 0.77%. The ICE dollar index climbed 0.6%, to a maximum since October 6, 93.70.
The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the draft budget approved last Friday in the US Congress. "Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration," said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.
Waiting for tax cuts in the new economic policy of the administration of the US President Donald Trump contributes to the growth of the dollar and US stock indices, and, accordingly, the fall in gold prices.
On Friday, December gold futures on COMEX closed with a decrease of 0.7%, at 1280.50 dollars per troy ounce. The prices for gold fell on the results of five of the last six weeks.
In the future, investors will also explore new US economic data. Low inflation can change the approach of the central bank in relation to interest rates and again support the price of gold. Traders also monitor the development of geopolitical tensions, which can support gold, popular as a safe haven in periods of uncertainty. With the growth of borrowing costs, gold competes worse with more profitable assets, for example, treasury bonds, and is declining, but the demand for gold is growing with the aggravation of geopolitical tensions. Usually, against the backdrop of growing geopolitical or financial uncertainty, the price of gold, as an asset-shelter, is growing.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is declining, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The pair XAU / USD broke short-term support levels of 1290.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 1285.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 1-hour chart) and develops the descending dynamics, decreasing to the support levels of 1272.00 (EMA144 and the lower border of the ascending channel on the day graph), 1265.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the pair XAU / USD returning to the downtrend.
The signal for the resumption of growth of XAU / USD will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00. Breakdown of local resistance levels at 1305.00, 1312.00 will confirm the return of the bullish trend within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%).
Support levels: 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Resistance levels: 1285.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1292.00. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



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  #115  
Old 24-10-2017, 11:56
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USD/JPY: amid the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party
24/10/2017
Current dynamics

After the results of the parliamentary elections in Japan became known, in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party won a convincing victory, the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose to new highs. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 13%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. The Nikkei Stock Average rose to 21810.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies, ending on a positive 16th consecutive day and setting a record for the duration of continuous growth (6 consecutive weeks).
The renewed growth of the Japanese economy and the growth of stock markets helped the ruling coalition to get more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house of parliament. Abe's victory inspired investors who are investing in the growth of the Japanese stock market, lagging behind other world stock markets. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which will promote the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.
During his reign, Abe will have to decide, in particular, the issue of appointing a new manager of the Bank of Japan. In any case, economists believe that even if Abe replaces the current governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who turns 73 on Wednesday, the central bank will basically maintain an extremely soft monetary policy, including asset purchases of 6 trillion yen in year.
The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on October 31. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "will take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".
At the same time, the dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market after it became known about the decision of the US Senate, which approved the draft budget from the presidential administration. The index of the ICE dollar rose to its highs from October 6, above the level of 93.70. Expectations of continued soft monetary policy in Japan and tightening of monetary policy in the US will contribute to the growth of the pair USD / JPY in the medium term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
On Monday, trading on the pair USD / JPY opened with a gap up. Then the pair adjusted to the marks near the closing level of Friday. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the pair USD / JPY is growing again and is trading at the beginning of the European session near the level of 113.80, the opening price of trading on Monday. A strong positive momentum continues to push the pair USD / JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists.
The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline in the downward channel on the weekly chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The immediate targets will be support levels of 111.25, 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
The breakthrough of the short-term support level 112.95 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for opening of short positions.
Support levels: 113.50, 113.10, 112.95, 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 113.85. Stop Loss 113.20. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



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  #116  
Old 25-10-2017, 11:35
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Brent: oil prices rise
25/10/2017
Current dynamics

As reported on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves in the US last week rose by 0.5 million barrels. At the same time, stocks of gasoline and distillates dropped quite significantly: -5.8 million barrels and -4.9 million barrels, respectively.
Oil prices positively received this information after the prices rose during yesterday's trading day. The price for Brent crude oil rose by 1.7% on Tuesday to 58.27, adding about $ 1 per barrel. Brent crude futures for ICE increased by 1.7%, to 58.33 dollars per barrel.
On Tuesday, the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister confirmed his intention to do everything necessary to reduce the world's oil reserves to an average of 5-year level.
Last year, OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel agreed on a total reduction in production of 1.8 million barrels per day. Now it is expected that at the November meeting the participants in the OPEC deal, which currently operates until the end of the first quarter of 2018, will again extend it. Oil prices also are supported by the dynamics of demand. Oil imports to India last month rose to a new high of 4.6 million barrels a day. China imported 37 million tons of oil in September (9% more than in August and 12% more in annual terms).
Analysts of the oil market forecast an even higher import of oil to Asian countries, in particular, to China and India.
Today, investors will wait for a weekly report on US reserves and oil production from the US Energy Ministry, which will be published at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks decreased by 2.578 million barrels last week, after a decrease of 5.731 million barrels the week before last. If the data is confirmed, the positive dynamics of oil prices will continue.
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Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of today's trading session, Brent crude is trading in a narrow range near the level of $ 58.10 per barrel.
The price is rising in the ascending channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 60.00. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest resistance level of 58.80 (September highs), the target of further growth will be the resistance level of 61.50 (EMA144 on the monthly chart).
While the price is above the key support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), long positions remain relevant.
The signal for the development of an alternative scenario to decline will be a breakdown of the support level of 57.00 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
If the price returns to 54.70, the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 52.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00), 50.00 (the lows of August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (the lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.
Long positions are preferred.
Support levels: 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 58.80, 60.00, 61.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 57.75. Stop-Loss 58.30. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.20, 55.70, 55.30, 54.70, 53.75, 52.20, 50.70
Buy Stop 58.30. Stop-Loss 57.75. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.00, 60.00, 61.50



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  #117  
Old 26-10-2017, 11:32
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EuroStoxx50: on the eve of the decision of the ECB
26/10/2017
Current dynamics

The focus of traders today is the ECB's decision on rates, as well as a follow-up press conference at which ECB leaders are expected to clarify the situation with the prospect of the QE program. It is expected that the ECB will keep the interest rate at zero level, and the deposit rate will leave negative, at the level of -0.4%.
Also, investors believe that the ECB will announce a reduction in the monthly purchases of European government bonds, supposedly from 60 billion euros to 30 billion euros, and this will be the second reduction this year.
The ECB leadership has stated more than once that stimulation can be extended, for example, for nine months, as inflation in the euro area remains weak, below the target level of just under 2.0%.
Even if the ECB declares a reduction in purchases, then, given that rates remain at the same level, in general, the monetary policy of the central bank will remain soft.
Nevertheless, the ECB can and disappoint today buyers, both the euro and European stock assets, unless it announces when it plans to complete the asset purchase program, saying that it still does not exclude any options.
On the other hand, the Eurozone economy is strong enough to cope with a gradual change in policy. The economy of the Eurozone can show the strongest annual growth since 2007, and the indicators of consumer sentiment reached the maximum marks for a decade.
Although inflation remains well below the ECB's target, the supply managers' indexes released this week showed that the employment growth rate in the Eurozone peaked in ten years. This allows us to hope that wage growth will support still weak inflation.
Thus, buying risky assets of the European stock market still looks more promising than putting the euro on further growth.
The decision on the interest rate will be published at 11:45 (GMT), the press conference of the ECB will start at 12:30 (GMT).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After active growth in September, the current month, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in the range near the level of 3600.0.
The positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index persists while it trades above support levels of 3455.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 3440.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the downward correction to the wave of growth from July 2016 and from the level of 2675.0 and the bottom line of the upward trend channel on the weekly chart).
The signal to decline may be a breakdown of the support level of 3555.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 3625.0 (October highs) will create prerequisites for further growth with targets at the annual maximum levels near the 3680.0, 3820.0 (absolute highs of 2015 and the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
The breakdown of support levels 3455.0, 3440.0 will be a turning point in the development of the bullish trend, which began in June 2016. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 3295.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).
Support levels: 3590.0, 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Resistance levels: 3625.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 3570.0. Stop-Loss 3630.0. Take-Profit 3555.0, 3455.0, 3440.0, 3415.0, 3400.0
Buy Stop 3630.0. Stop-Loss 3570.0. Take-Profit 3680.0, 3700.0, 3820.0



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #118  
Old 27-10-2017, 11:21
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GBP/USD: pound drops against dollar after other currencies
27/10/2017
Current dynamics

On Wednesday, when a strong report on UK GDP for the third quarter was presented, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. Preliminary GDP of the UK, according to the data, in the third quarter increased by 0.4% (+ 1.5% in annual terms). The forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.5%, respectively. The data presented strengthened expectations of an increase in interest rates of the Bank of England at a meeting on November 2. The pair GBP/USD rose on Wednesday by 1% or 130 points, rising to 1.3260.
And yet, yesterday and today, the pound is down against the dollar after the other currencies, the rivals of the dollar. Despite the fact that the probability of an increase in the Bank of England's rate in November has grown, investors are less likely to believe that an increase in the Bank of England's key rate in November will lead to a series of increases. Today, the British pound / US dollar fell to its lowest level in 2.5 weeks at 1.3080, completely cutting off the growth of the pair, fixed on Wednesday.
According to many economists, the increase in November will be the only change in rates in 2017 and 2018. And this, against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, makes it advisable to sell GBP / USD in the medium term.
The US dollar on Thursday reached its highest level for more than three months against the background of the fall of the euro and the pair EUR / USD. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.4%, to 87.53, the highest level since July 13.
At 12:30 (GMT) today a preliminary estimate of US GDP for the third quarter will be published.
In the previous quarter, GDP growth was +3.1%. The forecast for the 3rd quarter of this year is + 2.7%. This will be a fairly strong indicator, given the consequences of hurricanes sweeping over the country's south. GDP data will be key to the direction of the dollar's development ahead of the Fed meeting, which will be held next week and will end with the publication on November 1 of the interest rate decision.
Also, together with the GDP data, the inflationary price index and the price index for personal consumption expenditure will also be published, also for the third quarter. If the data prove to be worse than the forecast, the dollar may react with a decrease. Then, at the end of the last full trading week of the month, profit can be fixed in long positions on the dollar, which will cause its decline, including in the pair GBP/USD. If the data coincides with the forecast or will be stronger, the dollar will continue to grow.
Given the Fed's predilection for further tightening of monetary policy, the success of the US administration in implementing the new economic policy in the US (on Thursday the US Congress approved the draft budget, which would allow changes to the tax code), as well as strong macroeconomic indicators coming from the US, is likely further growth of the dollar in the medium term.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2975
Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3260, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760




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  #119  
Old 30-10-2017, 11:28
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DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow
30/10/2017
Current dynamics

This month, the main US stock indexes are closing in a positive territory, with a decent increase. On Friday, the indices reached new highs after the US received strong macro data. According to the Ministry of Trade, the gross domestic product, the most comprehensive indicator of all goods and services produced in the US, grew by 3% in the third quarter (the forecast was +2.5%). The growth of GDP was not hampered by hurricanes, because of which a number of large enterprises were closed.
Last week, many US companies reported good financial results. Outstanding results of activity of many large corporations contributed to the growth of the stock market. So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.1% to 23434.19 points. Strong growth in the technological sector helped Nasdaq Composite to increase by 2.2% to 6701.26 points, and the S & P500 - by 0.8% to 2581.07 points. Nasdaq has already reached the 61st new maximum this year, the last time such a number of record marks was recorded in 1999.
American stock indexes continued to grow actively after earlier this month the US Senate and Congress approved a draft budget submitted by the presidential administration. Now Republicans will be able to carry out their plan for reforming the tax code, suggesting significantly lowering taxes for companies and many individuals, without the support of democrats. The proposed measures will support economic growth.
In general, the positive dynamics of US stock indices, including the DJIA index, remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. Probably further growth, not excluding descending, but short-term corrections.
Data on retail sales, industrial production, orders for durable goods and company sentiment, as well as strong GDP, coupled with positive reports from companies and the success of the presidential administration in implementing economic reforms in the US contribute to maintaining the positive dynamics of the stock market.
From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of inflation indicators (spending on personal consumption, personal income / spending of Americans) for September, which will cause the growth of volatility in financial markets.
On Wednesday, the meeting of the Committee on Federal Open Market Operations will take place. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 18:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.25%. Apparently, the Fed leaders will again note the rapid recovery of economic data after the hurricanes, which will also positively affect the stock indices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0
Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0




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  #120  
Old 31-10-2017, 10:28
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USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy
31/10/2017


Today, the Bank of Japan has decided not to change the current monetary policy and to maintain the key rate on deposits - at the level of -0.1%. The yen reacted quite restrainedly to this decision, which was, in general, the expected investors. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at a press conference that the bank will adhere to its plan of buying shares. "At the moment I do not think that it is necessary to change anything in the policy of managing the yield curve", Kuroda said.
For the second month in a row, the USD/JPY is developing an upward trend. A strong positive momentum continues to push the USD/JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.
Today, the pair USD / JPY is trading in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, near the support level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and the level of 99.90).
The signal to open short positions will be the break of the short-term support level of 112.45 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart). The goal of corrective decline is the key support level of 111.45 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart).
Nevertheless, while the USD/JPY is trading above the level of 111.45, its positive medium-term dynamics remains. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 114.40 (October highs and the upper line of the range formed between the levels 114.40, 108.10), the target of the growth will be the level of resistance 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 113.10, 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.45, 112.00, 111.45, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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