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  #21  
Old 13-06-2017, 10:55
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NZD/USD: when will the pair begin to decline?
13/06/2017

Current dynamics

This week a number of important events will take place: meetings of central banks of Switzerland, Great Britain, Japan. However, the focus of traders will be a two-day meeting of the Fed (June 13-14) and the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which will be published June 14 at 18:00 (GMT). Forecast: the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 1.25%. After the decision on the interest rate, a comment on the monetary policy (FOMC Statement) is published and the press conference of the Federal Reserve begins. In the period of publication, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, and market participants will study the statement of the Fed on the presence of signals for further plans for monetary policy.
Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors, and putting pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies. If the Fed signals about the possibility of one or two more rate increases this year, the US dollar will receive significant support.
Also on Wednesday (at 22:45 GMT) a report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter is published. Forecast: + 0.7% (previous value + 0.4%). The publication of data will cause increased volatility in NZD. Against the background of rising prices for agricultural products in recent years (especially for dairy products, which is an important part of New Zealand's exports), it is likely that the report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter will come with positive indicators, and this will positively affect the positions of the New Zealand currency.
If the GDP report turns out to be worse than expected, and the Fed signals about the possibility of further interest rate hikes, then the NZD / USD pair may drop sharply and finally begin a corrective downward movement to the pair's active growth from the middle of last month.
Otherwise, the pair NZD / USD will continue its upward movement against the backdrop of positive macro data coming in from New Zealand recently.
We also await data from New Zealand on the balance of payments for the first quarter (it is expected that the negative balance was 1 billion New Zealand dollars against the surplus of 1.18 billion NZ dollars in the 1st quarter of last year), which are published today at 10:45 (GMT) And data from China (retail sales, industrial production in May) on Wednesday morning, which will increase the volatility of trades on the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance levels
As a result of active growth, which began in the middle of last month, the pair NZD / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 0.7190 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and came close to the resistance level of 0.7235 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave from the level of 0.8800 , Which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).
A little higher, through to the resistance level of 0.7270 is the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart. Thus, the NZD / USD pair is in the zone of strong resistance levels. For further growth and breakdown of these levels, the pair NZD / USD needs strong positive fundamental drivers, for example, signals from the RBNZ about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in New Zealand. The next meeting of the RBNZ on this issue will be held on June 21, ie. Already next week.
As you know, RBNZ last month kept interest rate at 1.75% and stated that interest rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time, at least until the third quarter of 2019. If, however, in the rhetoric of the bank will be marked a more rigid position, the New Zealand dollar will receive a strong support, and then the resistance level of 0.7270 can be passed.
Otherwise, the New Zealand dollar and the pair NZD / USD are waiting for a decline.
While the RBNZ seeks to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, the Fed says it plans to gradually tighten monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next couple of years, despite the possible growth periods for the NZD / USD pair over several weeks.
The return of the pair NZD / USD to the short-term support level 0.7165 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further decline in the NZD / USD pair and in the medium term with a target near the key support level of 0.7050 (EMA200, EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart).
By the way, indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily period begin to unfold on short positions.
Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818
Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7190. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6820
Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
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  #22  
Old 14-06-2017, 10:54
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GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons
14/06/2017

Overview and dynamics

Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%.
Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance.
The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed.
So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US.
If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market.
As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years.
Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth.
On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country.
The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Technical analysis
Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining.
The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.
At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart.
The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
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  #23  
Old 15-06-2017, 11:15
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AUD/USD: after the Fed meeting
15/06/2017
Current dynamics

As a result of a two-day meeting, the Fed raised yesterday the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The decision was expected, and the dollar reacted with sufficient restraint to it. The dollar began to strengthen later, when at 18:30 (GMT) the FRS press conference began, from which it became known that the Fed is planning another increase towards the end of the year, as well as cutting its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. The portfolio of FRS assets rose to the current level from 800 billion dollars before the crisis, which was due to a number of bond purchase programs aimed at reducing long-term interest rates.
According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar.
Thus, the Fed once again confirmed its intention to tighten monetary policy in the US.
As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved; however, there are other risks for the country's economy, which restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. Slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP will restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.
The volatility of commodity prices, in particular iron ore, one of Australia's major export commodities, and their propensity to decline against the expected strengthening of the US dollar, also represents one of the significant risks to the Australian economy, which still retains the raw material features in many respects.
The Australian dollar has grown today after the release of data showing a sharp increase in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate. Thus, the unemployment rate in May fell to 5.5% from 5.7% in April. The number of employees increased by 42,000 (with a growth by forecast of 10,000). The Australian labor market data was optimistic and supported the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and other world central banks supports the US dollar. This situation can also be attributed to the pair AUD / USD. If the Fed plans to raise the interest rate, the RBA intends to adhere to the current rate at least until the second half of 2018.
We are waiting for today news from the US, which will increase volatility in pairs with the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. A number of important macro data will be published between 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT), among which the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decrease to 242,000 versus 245,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the US dollar. Also data on industrial production in the US for May and the use of production capacity will be published.
However, today and in the near future investors will still assess the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed and the increase in the interest rate in the US.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Unlike other major currency pairs, the pair AUD / USD rose today during the Asian and European sessions, which was supported, among other things, by positive data from the Australian labor market published this morning.
Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the indications of the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts are deployed to short positions. On the general background of today's US dollar growth, the AUD / USD pair is likely to follow other dollar-denominated currency pairs. If in the course of the US trading session there are positive macro data on the US, it will probably become the trigger for the fall of the AUD / USD pair.
"First Swallow" will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 0.7580 (EMA50 on the 1-hour chart). The fall in the AUD / USD pair in this case may continue to the support level of 0.7540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 0.7514 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the fall of the pair AUD / USD. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7495 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
The following targets in case of breakdown of this support level - 0.7330 (November, May lows), 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, its growth will continue with the targets of 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014).
Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300
Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300
Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
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  #24  
Old 16-06-2017, 10:35
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XAG/USD: The dollar will build up positions
16/06/2017
Current dynamics

After on Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, the dollar is steadily increasing its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60. The central bank also made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, which provided additional support to the dollar. Yesterday, ambiguous macro data on the United States came out. Although the weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed a value of 237,000 against the forecast of 242,000, the labor market in the US looks quite stable.
As you know, on Wednesday the Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, to the range of 1-1.25% and signaled the possibility of another rate hike near the end of the year. The US Central Bank also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.
Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive for investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
The Fed raised the rate, despite the recent slowdown in consumer inflation in the US. The Fed also reiterated that it plans to cut its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar and, again, a decline in the price of gold and silver. Precious metals are getting cheaper, even despite the continuing geopolitical tensions. Apparently, the prospect of another increase near the end of the year outweighs the chalice in favor of sellers and exerts additional pressure on the assets of the shelter, including silver.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.14 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% corrective growth to the pair's decline since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016) and continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.
The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.72 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will become a medium-term goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a decline in the pair XAG / USD.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers’ side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the levels of 16.85, 17.00. The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.35, 17.58 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.
More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
Negative dynamics still prevails.
Support levels: 16.65, 16.20, 16.05, 15.72
Resistance levels: 16.85, 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 16.65. Stop-Loss 16.85. Take-Profit 16.20, 16.05, 15.72
Buy Stop 16.85. Stop-Loss 16.65. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
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  #25  
Old 19-06-2017, 09:33
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Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again
19/06/2017

Current dynamics

The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase.
Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016.
The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.
Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels.
There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014.
Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions.
At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.
The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.
Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50
Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50
Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
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  #26  
Old 20-06-2017, 09:59
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XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper amid plans of the Fed
20/06/2017
Current dynamics


After last Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, precious metals continued to go down in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60, to the level of 88.75 on Monday. The American Central Bank made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, and also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.
According to the CME Group, futures on interest rates by the Fed show that the probability of another increase in Fed rates this year is about 47% (against 41% last week).
Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. Higher interest rates also lead to the sale of precious metals, which do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said on Monday that he was "very confident" of "long-term" economic growth in the US, which is the third longest in the history of the United States. American stock markets are growing steadily. The weakening of the hype surrounding US President Trump, the stabilization of the political situation in the Eurozone after the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, also contribute to reducing political risks and prices for precious metals.
Nevertheless, further strengthening of the dollar clearly lacks an additional positive momentum.
Some weaker than expected macro data from the US, some people question the Fed's determination to further tighten the monetary policy in the US. Perhaps, the statements of a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve scheduled for this week will once again give confidence to investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar.
For example, on Tuesday, scheduled speeches by the president of the Fed-Boston Eric Rosengren, executive director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer. On Friday, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and FRS President St. Louis James Bullard will deliver a speech.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Meanwhile, the price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the price of silver is growing, however, the negative trend continues. The pair XAG / USD broke through the important support levels of 17.33 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.10 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 16.88 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the pair decline since August 2016 and level of 20.60) and Continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts with immediate targets near the levels of 16.15, 15.73 (low in 2016)
The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.73 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will be the goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the decline of the pair XAG / USD for the next 3-4 weeks.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the level of 16.88.
More distant goals in the case of the resumption of the growth of the pair XAG / USD - the levels of 17.33 (May highs), 17.59 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Here, the top line of the descending channel passes on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts.
More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the XAG / USD pair - the levels of 18.18 (Fibonacci 50% and EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.76 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
So far, negative dynamics prevails. Support levels: 16.30, 16.15, 15.73
Resistance levels: 16.88, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.18, 18.76

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 16.45. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.25, 16.15, 15.73
Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.45. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.17, 18.48, 18.76






*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com
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  #27  
Old 21-06-2017, 09:52
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GBP/USD: it's too early to think about raising rates
21/06/2017

Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 0.25%; however, it surprised the market participants. Three of the eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy, citing signs of accelerating inflation in the UK. This information caused a sharp reaction of the markets. The GBP / USD pair strengthened in the moment by 100 points, however, subsequently the pound declined; The Bank of England did not take any measures in either direction.
Nevertheless, the pound continues to remain under pressure in the foreign exchange market amid political uncertainty. Conservatives failed to achieve an absolute majority in the British parliament, and talks between British Prime Minister Therese May on the formation of a coalition with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist party have reached a deadlock. After the June 8 elections, the pair GBP / USD fell by about 350 points. And the pressure on the pair seems to be mounting.
Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that it is still too early to think about raising rates in the UK, which further lowered the expectations of British currency buyers for its growth.
As shown by the data published last week, real wages in May decreased by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. Consumer spending is one of the important components of GDP growth in the UK, and their decline adversely affects the growth of the British economy.
Today (at 10:30 GMT) the Queen of Great Britain is expected to speak, at 11:00 - Andrew Haldane, Executive Director for Monetary and Credit Analysis and Statistics of the Bank of England, as well as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and on Friday (18:00 GMT) - member of the Committee for Monetary Policy of the Bank of England Christine Forbes.
It is likely that key representatives of the Bank of England will also express their opinion in the spirit of their boss Mark Carney about the prematureness of raising rates in the UK, which will further weaken the position of the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After the parliamentary elections in Great Britain on June 8, the GBP / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 1.2800 (EMA200 on day and 4-hour charts), 1.2715 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart) and develops a downward trend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.
In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2430 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), the GBP / USD pair will go to the support levels of 1.2370, 1.2110, 1.2000 (the minimums of the global wave of the GBP / USD decline, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Negative dynamics in the pair GBP / USD prevails.
The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2800 with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement correction from 1.7200 level), 1.3300 (upper Border of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2640, 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2580. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300




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  #28  
Old 22-06-2017, 10:51
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Brent: the reduction of stocks in the US did not change the mood of investors
22/06/2017

Current dynamics

According to a weekly report released yesterday by the US Department of Energy, US oil inventories fell by 2.451 million barrels last week (the forecast was expected to reduce inventories by 2.1 million barrels). Immediately after the publication of the Ministry of Energy data, oil prices went up, however, for a short time. Growth was unstable, and in the next three hours the price for Brent crude oil fell by $ 1.7 to $ 44.7 per barrel.
WTI futures on NYMEX traded yesterday with a decline of about 2.4%. Contracts for Brent crude fell by 2.63% to 44.81 dollars per barrel.
This behavior of the price can only be explained by one thing: investors do not believe that OPEC's efforts will help restore the balance in the oil market and strengthen prices. Moreover, the countries of the cartel began to sell oil from their own storage facilities, while still cutting production. The increase in production in Nigeria and Libya, part of OPEC, but exempt from the reduction obligations, weakens the hopes for the restoration of oil prices. The US has been very successful in this situation, which continues to increase oil production, filling the vacant niche in the oil market. Oil production in the US last week increased again, by 20,000 barrels per day, more than 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015.
The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by about 28%, completely losing the positions won after the conclusion of the OPEC deal in late 2016.
Today, there is a slight recovery in the price of oil after a non-stop three-day decline. Nevertheless, the oil market is dominated by a strong negative momentum. The oil market seems to be shifting again into a bearish phase.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
On a weekly chart, the Brent oil price broke the lower border of the rising channel near the level of 47.50 and develops a downward trend. On the daily chart, the price came very close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, passing near the mark of 44.65.
Today, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts have turned to long positions. However, this indicates for the time being a short-term upward correction. On daily and weekly charts, indicators remain on the side of sellers.
Negative dynamics is growing at an accelerated pace. The price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%). There are two remaining milestones left - support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the breakdown of which will finally return prices for Brent crude oil in a downtrend. In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.
Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns above the short-term local resistance level of 47.25 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the level of 47.50 (the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
Support levels: 44.65, 43.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 45.50, 46.20, 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 44.90. Stop-Loss Section 46.10. Take-Profit 44.65, 43.50, 41.70
Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35




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  #29  
Old 23-06-2017, 10:30
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DJIA: investors are pausing
23/06/2017

Current dynamics

After the active growth and the achievement earlier this week of new one-month highs, the main US stock indexes suspended growth. The DJIA index is down for the fourth consecutive day, however, since the opening of today's trading day is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 21400.00. It seems that investors took a pause before the publication of fresh macro data on the US economy.
At 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and services sector (PMI business activity from Markit Economics) in the US for June, as well as a report on the sale of new homes in the US in May . The PMI index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the US economy. The indicator, exceeding the mark of 50, in general is a positive factor for US stock indices. The expected growth in indicators will support the dollar and stock indexes.
At 18:15 (GMT), the speech of FOMC member Jerome Powell will begin. From it, investors will want to hear information about the prospects for inflation and interest rates in the US. If Powell, like the other leaders of the Fed this week, speaks in favor of a softer scenario of raising rates in the US, this will support American indices.
American stock indexes rose on the basis of the current month, which ends next week. Macro statistics coming out across the US are generally quite positive to have a positive impact on US stock markets.
Their positive dynamics are still being preserved.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
On Tuesday, DJIA exceeded its recent annual highs and reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21538.0. Nevertheless, subsequently the DJIA index decreased and today at the beginning of the European session is traded at the short-term support level of 21380.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).
Here, the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the 4-hour chart. The current level is quite strong, and about the arrival of today positive macro data from the US DJIA index can rebound from this level of 21380.0 and resume growth.
At the same time, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions, signaling a possible continuation of the downward correction. There may be a correction decrease to the level of 21117.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20900.0).
If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20500.0 (the May lows and EMA144 on the daily chart), 20360.0, 20158.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, December highs and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to wave growth from the level 15660.0 after the recovery in February this year to a collapse in the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21538.0).
The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 20158.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
Support levels: 21380.0, 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0, 19300.0
Resistance levels: 21538.0, 22000.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21460.0. Stop-Loss 21310.0. Take-Profit 21538.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 21310.0. Stop-Loss 21460.0. Take-Profit 21170.0, 20900.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 20158.0




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  #30  
Old 27-06-2017, 09:55
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XAU/USD: the dollar drops before the performance Janet Jellen
27/06/2017

Current dynamics

With the opening of today's trading day, and especially at the beginning of the European session, the dollar is falling in the foreign exchange market. Published yesterday, data from the US Department of Commerce showed a reduction in orders for durable goods in May by 1.1% compared to the previous month, which was the strongest decline in six months. Demand for durable goods in the US in May fell for the second consecutive month.
Other macro data from the US also come out with weaker indicators. So, published on Friday, indicators of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in the US declined in June. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in June fell to 52.1 against 52.7 in May, reaching a 9-month low. The preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector fell to a 3-month low, reaching 53 versus 53.6 in May.
The decline in macroeconomic indicators and the low level of inflation in the US can not but worry the Fed leaders.
Previously, the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate to a range of 1% -1.25%, saying it expects another rate hike this year. However, market participants do not believe that the Fed can really proceed with further tightening of monetary policy amid weak data on inflation in the US.
"The US Federal Open Market Committee can refrain from actions and analyze the development of the macroeconomic situation in the coming quarters", said Fed President St. Louis James Bullard on Friday.
Today, market participants will wait for the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, which will start at 5:00 pm (GMT). If Janet Yellen again signals about the Fed's inclination to tighten monetary policy, confirming its view that slowing inflation is a temporary phenomenon, then the dollar will quickly regain its positions in the foreign exchange market.
According to the CME Group, futures for interest rates by the Fed indicate that the probability of another increase in the Fed's rates this year is about 50%. Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. At the same time, prices for precious metals, denominated in US currency, are declining.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Meanwhile, the price of gold is growing with the opening of today's trading day. The pair XAU / USD pushed back from the support level of 1245.00 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart), however, its growth stopped at the short-term resistance level of 1253.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The pair XAU / USD is in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart. More seriously to the recovery of the upward movement of the pair XAU / USD can be attributed only after its consolidation above the resistance level 1257.00 (EMA200, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart).
If the trend of strengthening the dollar will gain momentum, then the price of gold will continue to decline gradually. The return of the pair XAU / USD into the zone below the key support level of 1245.00 will strengthen its negative dynamics.
The breakdown of the support level of 1220.00 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.
Support levels: 1248.00, 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
Resistance levels: 1253.00, 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1249.00. Stop-Loss 1254.00. Take-Profit 1245.00, 1236.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
Buy Stop 1254.00. Stop-Loss 1249.00. Take-Profit 1257.00, 1260.00, 1277.00, 1295.00, 1305.00





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  #31  
Old 28-06-2017, 09:50
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EuroStoxx50: European stock indexes are down
28/06/2017

Current dynamics

Statements made by ECB President Mario Draghi on Tuesday at a conference in Portugal provoked a sharp rise in the euro and a fall in European stock indices.
Mario Draghi said that "all the signs now point to the strengthening and expansion of the basis for the recovery of the Eurozone economy." Draghi spoke very cautiously about the ECB's monetary policy, saying that "it is necessary to reasonably approach the adjustment of the parameters of our policy in response to the improvement of the economic situation in order to ensure the combination of our incentives with the restoration of the economy against the background of continuing uncertainties."
At the same time, Draghi repeated that "it is necessary to persevere in carrying out our monetary and credit policy. Any changes in its direction should occur gradually and only if the justification for improving the dynamics seems to be quite reliable, "and" interest rates should be low so that the growth rate can recover ". Recall that the ECB's key rate (on deposits for commercial banks) has remained negative since June 2014.
And, nevertheless, Draghi's speech was perceived by market participants as a hint at the likelihood of curtailing the incentive program in the Eurozone in the near future. Now, many market participants expect that the ECB will begin to close the quantitative easing program in January 2018, and after the completion of the curtailment of the QE program, the ECB will gradually raise deposit rates and refinancing rates.
The euro showed the strongest growth for the year yesterday, while the prices of Eurozone bonds and most European stocks fell. At the same time, the yield of government bonds of countries such as Germany, France and Italy has risen sharply.
EuroSTOXX50 continues to decline today, losing about 1.4% during two incomplete days and trading at the beginning of the European trading session near the 3510.0 mark. If the ECB really starts to curtail the QE program in the Eurozone, the euro will continue to strengthen, and the European stock indexes decline.
Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the speeches of the heads of central banks of Great Britain, Japan, Canada and the Eurozone, which will begin at 13:30 (GMT). In this period of time, a surge in volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market, including world stock markets.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The EuroStoxx50 index broke yesterday the support level of 3542.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure, decreasing in the descending channel on the daily chart. In case of breakdown of the support level of 3495.0 (June lows and April highs observed on the eve of the presidential elections in France), the EuroStoxx50 index will continue to decline. The reduction targets will be the support levels 3420.0 (EMA144 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), 3380.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline wave since April 2015 and from the level of 3840.0).
Only in case of return to the zone above the level of 3542.0 can we speak about restoring the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index. In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 3610.0 (June highs), the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume within the uplink on a weekly chart, the upper limit of which is just near the Fibonacci level of 100% (the beginning of the decline wave since April 2015 and the level of 3840.0).
Support levels: 3495.0, 3420.0, 3380.0
Resistance levels: 3542.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 3490.0. Stop-Loss 3525.0. Take-Profit 3420.0, 3400.0, 3380.0
Buy Stop 3525.0. Stop-Loss 3490.0. Take-Profit 3542.0, 3590.0, 3610.0, 3680.0, 3700.0




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  #32  
Old 29-06-2017, 10:25
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S&P500: investors remain optimistic
29/06/2017

Overview and dynamics

American stock indexes retain a positive trend against the backdrop of sales of government bonds. The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, rose on Wednesday to 2.223% from 2.198% on Tuesday. Investors remain confident that US economic growth is strong enough. At the same time, there were also speculations that weak inflation in the US would force the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates.
The index of Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday showed the most significant growth since November and increased by 87.79 points (by 1.4%) to 6234.41 points. Growth in the price of shares of technology and financial companies contribute to the growth of US stock indices. Shares in the technology sector in the S & P500 this year increased by almost 19%, and on Wednesday again showed the leading dynamics, rising by 1.3%. The financial sector in the S & P500 grew by 1.6% yesterday. The index itself S & P500 gained 0.9%, rising above the mark of 2440.0.
Newly rising oil prices also contribute to the growth of oil and gas stocks in the S & P500 index. Despite the release of data that recorded an increase in US oil inventories in the last week, Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to $ 47.95 per barrel.
If Donald Trump can keep his promise and reduce corporate taxes, this will further promote the growth of US indices.
Thus, there is every reason to assume that the positive dynamics of US stock indices will continue, probably even before the end of the year, when the Fed again can raise the interest rate.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Technical analysis
The index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the daily, weekly charts. At the beginning of today's European session, the index trades above the short-term support level of 2435.0 (EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In June, the index updated the absolute maximum near the mark of 2453.0.
Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts turned to short positions. A downward correction is likely with the immediate goals of 2435.0, 2421.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Only the breakdown of the support level at 2395.0 (the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart and the highs of February and April) can cause a deeper correction to the level of 2355.0 (May lows). The breakdown of the support level of 2305.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S & P500 index remains. After the breakdown of the resistance level of 2453.0 (June highs), the growth of the index will resume.
Support levels: 2435.0, 2421.0, 2405.0, 2395.0, 2355.0, 2305.0
Resistance levels: 2453.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2417.0. Objectives 2388.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2305.0, 2280.0
Buy Stop 2417.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2450.0, 2500.00




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  #33  
Old 30-06-2017, 10:34
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Brent: prices are recovering
30/06/2017

Current dynamics

Oil prices continue to recover. The rise of the last days has become the longest since April. The price of Brent crude is growing for the seventh consecutive session.
Prices received additional support from data on the reduction of oil production in the US last week by 100,000 barrels per day.
By the beginning of today's European session, August futures for WTI crude oil on the NYMEX were trading at $ 45.21 per barrel, with an increase of $ 0.28, while Brent crude futures gained 0.63% to $ 47.72 per barrel. Prices for these types of oil this week rose by more than 5%.
The spot price for Brent crude is approaching $ 48.00 per barrel at the beginning of the European session. Also, the growth of oil prices contributes to the weakening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. The probability that in December the Fed can raise the rate by another 0.25% goes into the background. Investors' attention this week was focused on the statements of the leaders of several of the world's largest central banks (Europe, Great Britain, Canada) about the possibility of an early tightening of monetary policy in these countries, which led to the growth of currencies of these countries against the US dollar.
Nevertheless, the fundamental factors for oil prices remain rather negative. Excessive supply in the market can grow on the background of increased oil production in Libya and Nigeria.
The number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by 11 units to 758 units, which was the 23rd consecutive week of the increase. Excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high.
Investors are still not sure about the stabilization of oil prices. If the US again grows oil production, then pessimism can again return to the oil market. Despite the current price increase, a negative impulse prevails in the oil market.
Today (17:00 GMT) publishes a weekly report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. At the moment, the number of active drilling platforms in the US is 758.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Last week, the price of Brent oil broke the lower border of the rising channel weekly chart near the level of 47.70 and develops a downward trend within the falling channel on the daily chart.
The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 43.50 (November minima).
The price is below the key resistance level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50.0%) .
Corrective growth may continue to the resistance level of 48.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), from which the price may again return to a downtrend.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators remain on the sellers’ side.
In the event of breakdown of support levels of 43.50 (November lows), 41.70 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), the price of Brent crude will finally return to a downtrend.
Return to consideration of long positions is possible only if the price returns to the zone above the short-term local resistance level of 48.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
The oil market is dominated by negative sentiment, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
Support levels: 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.55, 43.50, 41.70
Levels of resistance: 48.65, 50.00, 50.70

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 47.30. Stop-Loss 48.30. Take-Profit 47.00, 46.20, 45.50, 44.55, 43.50, 41.70
Buy Stop 46.10. Stop-Loss 44.90. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.50, 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35




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  #34  
Old 03-07-2017, 11:44
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AUD/USD: RBA decision on the rate
03/07/2017
Current dynamics

Tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT), the RB of Australia publishes an interest rate decision. It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.5%. The growing Australian dollar is not profitable for the recovery of the Australian economy, whose GDP growth rates in the first quarter have already slowed.
Last week was marked by the fact that representatives of the Bank of England, Bank of Canada and the ECB signaled a tendency to tighten monetary and credit policy. However, the RBA is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the ECB.
And yet, even a slight hint of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe on the positive state of the Australian labor market and the Australian economy could trigger the growth of the Australian dollar. In this case, amid weakening expectations of an increase in the rate from the Fed, the pair AUD / USD could rush to the level of 0.8000.
Conversely, the soft tone of the RBA's accompanying statement will help to weaken the AUD and lower the AUD / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The AUD / USD pair remains positive dynamics, trading in the upward channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly charts are on the buyers’ side.
However, it's worth noting that on the 1-hour, 4-hour chart, the OsMA and Stochastics indicators went to the sellers' line, signaling the beginning of a downward correction.
The correction targets are support levels of 0.7625 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7560 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7560, further decrease to the key support level of 0.7525 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) is possible. The targets in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline of the pair from July 2014, the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).
The breakdown of the support level of 0.7330 will call into question the uptrend of the pair AUD / USD.
If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, after its return to the zone above the level of 0.7690 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), its growth will continue with the targets 0.7710, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.8000 (EMA200 and the upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7560, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7690, 0.7710, 0.7760

Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7680. Take-Profit: 0.7625, 0.7560, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420
Buy Stop 0.7680. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7710, 0.7760, 0.8000




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  #35  
Old 04-07-2017, 11:12
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GBP/USD: The dollar is rising again
04/07/2017
Overview and dynamics

According to data provided by Markit today, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK construction sector fell in June (54.8 against 56.0 in May and 55 according to the forecast). Nevertheless, the pound reacted rather sluggishly to this data. In June, there is a weakening of the growth momentum in the UK construction sector, according to Markit, however, the PMI index remains above the level of 50, indicating an increase in activity. The slowdown in activity is generally observed in the UK economy (due to the "renewal of the rejection of risk", as stated in the report of Markit) amid concerns about economic and political uncertainties in the country. This is the lowest level of optimism about the prospects for the UK economy since December 2016.
This Markit report goes against the statement of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, made during his speech at the forum of the European Central Bank in Portugal at the end of June. Mark Carney said that "a partial waiver of incentive measures is likely to be necessary, since the Bank of England will no longer have to compromise, and the decision-making process will enter the normal course".
Now market participants will wait for the meeting of the Bank of England in August, and it is not excluded, according to Mark Carney's statement, that the rate will be increased by 0.25%. Expectations of this development support the buyers of the pound. This week, the markets will study the data on industrial production and foreign trade of Great Britain (for May), which will be released on Friday, to understand how the growth in production in the country meets the expectations of economists.
Today in the US, a day off (Independence Day), low trading volumes and activity of traders will continue until tomorrow, when Asia opens. Nevertheless, the dollar is now increasing its positive dynamics after yesterday's growth amid strong production data.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector rose to 57.8, the highest level since August 2014.
Now, market participants will closely monitor the publication on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Fed and the US labor market data for June, which are published on Friday 12:30 (GMT).
It is expected that the Fed will confirm the continuation of tightening of monetary policy. The probability of another rate increase in 2017 is estimated by investors at 62%, according to the CME Group.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Nevertheless, the pair GBP / USD remains positive, trading above the short-term 1.2885 (EMA200 on 1-hour), 1.2830 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart) and medium-term 1.2815 (EMA200 on the daily chart) support levels.
The GBP / USD pair since early 2017 continues to rise in the uplink on the weekly chart. If the positive pound dynamics continues, then the GBP / USD pair will continue to rise with the targets of 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3100, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and The upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart). Through the level of 1.3210 also passes the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart.
Positive dynamics in the pair GBP / USD so far remains.
Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions.
An alternative scenario is to reduce the pair GBP / USD to support level 1.2815. In the case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2735 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate towards targets near the 1.2550 level (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110.
Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2830, 1.2815, 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2970. Take-Profit 1.2885, 1.2820, 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485
Buy Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300



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  #36  
Old 05-07-2017, 11:34
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EUR/USD: on the eve of important events
05/07/2017

Current dynamics

This week, investors will closely monitor the publication of a number of important macroeconomic data. In addition to waiting for news on the course of the two-day G-20 summit that will begin in Hamburg on Friday, market participants will also focus on the minutes of the meeting of the central banks of the United States and the Eurozone to determine the prospects for monetary policy. The minutes of the meetings will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT) (US Federal Reserve) and Thursday (11:30 GMT) (ECB).
Today, there are new evidence of strengthening the economy of the Eurozone. So, in May, retail sales grew by 0.4% in the Eurozone (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 0.1% in April). The composite index of supply managers (PMI) in the services sector of the Eurozone increased to 55.4 in June (against the forecast of 54.7), the same index for the manufacturing sector increased to 56.3 in June (the forecast was 55.7). Values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.
Similar indices rose in June also in countries with leading economies of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy). This was reported today by the Statistics Agency of the Eurozone in conjunction with Markit Economics.
Nevertheless, the acceleration of economic growth has not yet led to a steady acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, the target level of which is just below 2.0%. The growth of wages also remains weak.
As ECB representative Peter Prat said yesterday during his speech in Rome, "our (ECB) task has not been fulfilled yet. We need to maintain patience and perseverance. We need to be patient, because it takes more time for inflation to be surely reflected in the data. "
The euro almost did not react to the publication of positive data. The euro is falling against the dollar, as are other major currencies. And the strengthening of the dollar is observed for the third consecutive session, and in the pair EUR / USD - the fourth trading session.
The dollar continues to recover in the foreign exchange market on the eve of today's publication of the protocol since the last meeting of the Fed and on Friday - data from the US labor market for June.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The fourth day of the EUR / USD pair is declining. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.
The pair EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level 1.1330 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The target of further decline will be support levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.8% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1250 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart).
The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is generally maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 1.1210 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
In case of breakdown of support level 1.1210, the pair EUR / USD decline will accelerate with the target at support level 1.1120 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart and June lows). The breakdown of the key support level 1.0950 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will cancel the upward trend of the EUR / USD pair.
Support levels: 1.1285, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1120, 1.0950
Levels of resistance: 1.1330, 1.1350, 1.1440, 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1785

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1360. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1280, 1.1215, 1.1170, 1.1140
Buy Stop 1.1360. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1785




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  #37  
Old 06-07-2017, 11:03
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S&P500: in a busy trading day
06/07/2017

Overview and dynamics

After the unstable and insignificant growth last month, US stock indices seem to change their direction of movement and unfold "to the south."
Published yesterday, the minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Reserve confirmed the market expectations and intentions of the Fed on monetary policy in the US. The Fed, despite its weak inflation, plans to make another rate hike this year, as well as to start cutting its budget, which is estimated at about 4.5 trillion dollars by various estimates.
Today at 11:30 (GMT) the minutes of the June meeting of the European Central Bank are published, which may cause increased interest of investors in connection with the latest comments of ECB representatives. The focus of the markets today will be the question of the ECB's intentions regarding the beginning of the reduction of the incentive program in the coming months.
In recent days, investors have been focusing their attention on the comments of the leaders of the world's largest central banks. It seems that, amid the strengthening of the world economy, stimulating programs in countries with the largest economies may soon be curtailed. And this is a negative signal for world stock markets.
Today is a busy trading day. In addition to publishing information about the ECB monetary policy meeting, the US trade statistics published in the US trading session are statistics on private sector employment from ADP for June, the trade balance for May, the weekly report on primary applications for unemployment benefits and business activity indices for June . Weak indicators of macroeconomic indicators will cause a decline in the dollar and US stock indices.
Also at 14:00 (GMT), a member of the US Federal Open Market Committee, Jerome Powell, is expected to speak. It is likely that he will also support the Fed's actions towards a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day and, especially, during the European trading session, the S&P500 index is actively declining. The price fell below the 2422.0 mark, corresponding to the closing price of the previous month. If the negative trend increases, then July will be the first month in which the S & P500 index will close in negative territory after an 8-month active growth.
The index has already broken through an important short-term support level of 2421.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and is aiming for the support level of 2413.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart). If the negative trend is to increase, then the following goals of the S & P500 index decline will be support levels 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, between which the lower line of the uplink on the weekly chart passes, 2320.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2305.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to Growth since February 2016). The breakdown of support levels 2320.0, 2305.0 will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts have already turned to short positions.
While the price is above the level of 2413.0, we can speak of a downward correction of the index. Its positive dynamics is higher than this level. In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance level 2452.0 (June and year highs), the growth of the index will resume.
Support levels: 2413.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0
Resistance levels: 2438.0, 2453.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 2432.0. Objectives 2413.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0
Buy Stop 2432.0. Stop-Loss 2417.0. Objectives 2438.0, 2450.0, 2500.00



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  #38  
Old 07-07-2017, 11:28
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GBP/USD: The dollar is growing before the publication of NFP
07/07/2017
Overview and dynamics

After the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain presented disappointing data on the foreign trade balance of Great Britain, and also on the level of industrial production for May, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market. Against the euro, the pound fell to the lowest level in nine days, and against the dollar - by 0.4% (by about 60 points), falling to the level of 1.2900. In view of the decline in manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, the decline in UK industrial production was 0.1% compared to the previous month (the forecast was + 0.3%). Published data indicate that in the second quarter of the country's economic growth remains weak. The deficit of foreign trade in Britain at the same time in May increased by almost a billion pounds to 11.9 billion pounds (from 10.6 billion pounds in April and against a forecast of 10.8 billion pounds). The sharp increase in inflation in the UK against the background of Brexit puts pressure on consumer spending, which over the past few years has been the engine of the UK economy's growth. Now, in order to level out the slowdown in the economy, it is necessary that production and trade grow at a faster rate. In fact, the reverse process occurs. In the 1st quarter of 2017, the UK economy grew 0.2% compared to the previous quarter against 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016, in the second quarter, the growth in the economy could slow even further and, according to some estimates, move to Negative territory.
During his speech at the forum of the European Central Bank in Portugal in late June, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said that "partial refusal of stimulus measures is likely to be necessary, since the Bank of England will no longer have to compromise, and the decision-making process will enter in the usual course".
Now, after the release of weak macro data on the hawk positions in the Bank of England suffered a tangible blow. Apparently, disappointing economic data can give the monetary authorities of the UK an opportunity to seriously not think about raising the interest rate, but to stimulate the economy. In any case, the Brexit process will have a negative impact on the economy of the country for a long time. And with any corrective growth in the British currency, there are many investors who will want to sell it, especially after the release of another negative portion of the British macro statistics. Today, investors' attention is focused on the G20 summit, which began in Hamburg, at a meeting of the Russian and US presidents, which is scheduled to begin at 17:00 local time, as well as publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market in the United States. Strong performance is expected. The growth of employment in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in June was, according to economists, 179,000 new jobs, which is 41,000 higher than the previous index, unemployment in June remained at the same level of 4.3%, and the average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% %.
If the forecast is confirmed, the dollar will grow in the foreign exchange market. In any case, when making trading decisions, it is necessary to take into account that when these indicators are published, a surge in volatility is expected in the trades throughout the financial market, including GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After the publication of macro data for the UK, the GBP / USD pair broke through the short-term support level of 1.2910 (EMA200 at 1-hour) and continues to decline to support level 1.2850 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions, signaling the continuation of the downward correction. The next important goal of the pair GBP / USD decline is the level of 1.2810 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In the case of the breakdown of the support level 1.2745 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD decline will accelerate to targets near the levels of 1.2590 (June lows), 1.2550 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110.
If the positive pound dynamics continues, then the GBP / USD pair will resume growth with the targets of 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3100, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 And the upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2810, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2880. Stop-Loss 1.2930. Take-Profit 1.2820, 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485
Buy Stop 1.2930. Stop-Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300




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  #39  
Old 10-07-2017, 11:03
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Brent: pressure on oil prices persists
10/07/2017

Current dynamics

After some decline during the Asian session, the dollar today resumed its growth. Ambiguous data on the US labor market for June, published on Friday, caused a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market. And yet, despite the fact that unemployment rose in June from 4.3% to 4.4%, and the average hourly earnings in the US for June was 0.2% (the forecast was 0.3%), in general, the data On the labor market in the US can be called strong. The NFP indicator in June was 225,000 (against the forecast of 179,000). The dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and oil prices decline.
Additional pressure on oil prices had an increase in oil production in the US last week. According to the Energy Information Administration of the country, oil production in the US last week increased to 9.33 million barrels per day from 9.25 million barrels a day a week earlier. Oil production at the same time exceeded the level of the previous year by almost 11% and returned to its 10-month maximum.
Published on Friday, data from the oil service company Baker Hughes, also indicated an increase in drilling activity in the industry. So, the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased last week by seven units to 763 units, which is more than 2.1 times higher than a year ago. Against the backdrop of a sharp increase in oil production in the US, which alleviates OPEC's efforts to stabilize the balance in the oil market, OPEC is considering setting restrictions on oil production in Nigeria and Libya.
But, at the same time, Saudi Arabia plans to spend $ 300 billion on oil and gas projects in the next 10 years, the head of Aramco said today. Last week, by the way, Saudi Arabia reported that it reduces official oil prices for Asia.
Despite the agreements to limit oil production, the struggle for its share in the oil market does not stop. Especially, after the US begins to fill successfully the vacant niches in the oil market with a growing supply of US shale oil.
World oil production is still high, oil reserves remain at historical highs, but the demand for oil is not growing.
Most likely, oil prices will continue to decline in the short term. The next weekly official data on oil reserves in the US will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). If the data indicates an increase in inventories, then this will have additional pressure on oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
The price for Brent crude oil was down 2.8% on Friday, coming close to $ 46.30 per barrel. At the beginning of today's European session, the price for Brent crude is again traded near this mark, remaining under pressure. Last week, the price could not develop an upward movement above resistance level 49.60 (EMA50 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart). Over the last 3 trading sessions, the price has lost more than 7%, and having broken short-term support levels of 48.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 47.80 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), continues to decline in the downlink on the daily chart with immediate targets at levels Support 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant target is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel).
Strengthening the foreign exchange market dollar also contributes to lower commodity prices and oil prices. Only if the price is restored above the level of 48.50 can you consider the long positions again. The trend again changed to negative, and negative moods continue to dominate the oil market.
Support levels: 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 47.80, 48.50, 48.80, 49.60, 50.70, 51.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 46.25. Stop-Loss 46.88. Take-Profit 46.00, 45.50, 44.50, 43.50, 41.70
Buy Stop 46.88. Stop-Loss 46.25. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.80, 48.50, 49.60, 50.00, 50.70, 51.00




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  #40  
Old 11-07-2017, 11:11
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AUD/USD: in July - in negative territory
11/07/2017

Current dynamics

Despite the growth of the third trading session in a row, the pair AUD / USD has been trading on negative territory since the beginning of the month. As you know, last week the Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, which has been at this level since August of last year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe held to neutral rhetoric, saying that the growth rate of wages remains low and "probably will be so for some time".
At the same time, the US dollar keeps the positions won earlier in the foreign exchange market. A number of positive macroeconomic data received from the US last week indicates a stable recovery of the economy and the labor market in the United States.
The number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in June grew by 222,000 in the US (the forecast was +174,000 new jobs). The estimates for May and April are also revised upwards.
The index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector in June, according to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), was 57.4 compared to 56.9 in May. The service sector accounts for the largest part of US GDP, and the fact that in June the growth of business activity accelerated in this area, indicates a positive momentum for growth in the US economy.
This week, market participants will closely follow the statement (on Wednesday 10:00 (GMT) and on Thursday 14:00 (GMT)) of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. If, in her report to Congress, she confirms the Fed's intention to adhere to the planned tightening of monetary policy, the strengthening of the US dollar will continue.
Today, another representative of the Fed, Fed President San Francisco Williams, said that the pace of growth in wages and inflation in the US coincide with his predictions, and another increase in rates still fits into a "reasonable baseline scenario".
While the RBA says that "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy," and "the continuation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals of GDP, inflation" in Australia, the Fed systematically tightens monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA will be an important fundamental factor that stimulates the sale of the AUD / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
In general, the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair persists while it is trading above the key support level of 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is trading on the short-term balance line 0.7608 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and is trying to develop positive dynamics within the short-term upward channels on 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
Only in case of breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7585 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 0.7570 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we speak of the predominance of the downside dynamics of the AUD / USD pair.
The fastening above the local resistance level 0.7635 will create prerequisites for the further growth of the AUD / USD pair.
In case of the development of the downward dynamics and breakdown of the key support level 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the bearish trend will again prevail in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair. In this case, the targets will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).
Support levels: 0.7608, 0.7585, 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7500, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7710, 0.7780, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7590. Stop-Loss 0.7630. Take-Profit 0.7570, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7630. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7640, 0.7710, 0.7780, 0.7840





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