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  #441  
Old 03-06-2019, 15:01
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AUD/USD: RBA may announce another 2 rate cuts
03/06/2019
Current dynamics

The Australian dollar and the AUD / USD pair are rising on Monday, despite the fact that on Tuesday a meeting of the RB of Australia will be held, at which the bank is expected to reduce the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%.
Moreover, many economists believe that the RBA may announce 2 more rate cuts this year, given the uncertain situation in the global economy and its potential impact on Australian GDP growth.
However, investors are selling the US dollar, which gives a positive impetus to dollar pairs.
Anxiety does not leave investors, and world stock indices continue to decline after last week, US President Donald Trump threatened Mexico with the introduction of import duties on its products, unless the authorities of this country take measures to prevent illegal immigration to the US.
“Mexico sent a large delegation for border talks. The problem is that they "say" 25 years. We need action, not talk. If they wanted to, they would solve the problem of the border in one day”, Trump tweeted on Sunday.
The RBA meeting will end with the publication of the interest rate decision on Tuesday (04:30 GMT).
As previously stated by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, "new incentives could help accelerate economic growth". Recent labor market data was weak, and “to accelerate inflation, an unemployment rate below 5% is needed”, Lowe added.
The perspective of reducing the RBA rate by 0.5% or more percent creates pressure on the Australian currency.
As soon as investors again pay attention to the American dollar, the AUD / USD pair will turn back "to the south". The US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
Despite the current correctional growth, AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7095 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7148 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
When the price reaches the resistance level of 0.7000 (ЕМА50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart), it is recommended to resume or increase sales with stops 20-30 points higher than this mark.
The immediate goal of the decline is located at 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Support Levels: 0.6923, 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6973, 0.7000, 0.7095, 0.7148

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​in the market. Stop Loss 0.7020. Take-Profit 0.6923, 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.7020. Stop Loss 0.6960. Take-Profit 0.7095, 0.7148

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #442  
Old 04-06-2019, 11:36
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/06/2019

The US dollar continues to decline on Tuesday, under pressure from the heightened expectations of lower Fed interest rates. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee James Bullard said Monday that "a reduction in rates may be appropriate soon" to support the economy and accelerate inflation. According to him, "the slowdown may be more dramatic than expected, due to the continuing uncertainty in the conditions of world trade".
On Tuesday, DXY futures dropped to 97.00. Investors are moving away from the risks that have intensified due to the aggravation of the US-China and USA-Mexico trade confrontation, preferring gold, yen, and government bonds. Thus, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell on Monday to 2.075%, to the marks of September 2017.
At the same time, investors assess the risks and prospects for the direction of further movement of both the dollar and the euro, on the eve of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
The uncertainty associated with Brexit, the situation in Italy, makes investors cautious about the likelihood of further strengthening of the euro.
If the rhetoric of the statements of the management of the ECB is soft in relation to its monetary policy, the euro may decline, including in relation to the dollar.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1250 mark, 10 points higher than the opening price of the trading day. The current growth of the Eurodollar is associated more with the weakening of the dollar and the correction, rather than with the strengthening of the euro.
EUR / USD is in a steady bearish trend.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1315 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
The signal for the resumption of short positions will be the return of EUR / USD to the zone below the support level of 1.1210 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) with the likelihood of further falling of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1315, 1.1365

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1235. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1235. Take-Profit 1.1315, 1.1365



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #443  
Old 05-06-2019, 12:01
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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/06/2019

On Wednesday, gold rises in price for the 5th day in a row. The XAU / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 1336.00, 130 points above the support level of 1323.00 (January and March highs), but 80 points ($ 8) below the local resistance level of 1346.00 (multi-monthly and annual highs).
While XAU / USD is above the key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the bullish trend remains.
There is a strong positive impulse that supports XAU / USD and it emerged after a sharp weakening of the dollar, aggravating trade contradictions between the US and China, and Mexico, as well as after yesterday’s speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He said that the Fed, if necessary, will take "appropriate measures to support growth" of the economy.
Usually, when the Fed raises the interest rate, the price of gold decreases as the cost of its acquisition and storage increases. With the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the growing uncertainty in the financial markets, the demand for gold and its price increase.
An alternative scenario implies a resumption of dollar growth and a decline in XAU / USD to a key support level of 1277.00.
The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1323.00 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart and the highs of January, March). Farther targets for the decline are at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1323.00, 1310.00, 1302.00, 1291.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1346.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1322.00. Stop-Loss 1340.00. Take-Profit 1310.00, 1302.00, 1291.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Buy Stop 1340.00. Stop Loss 1322.00. Take-Profit 1346.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



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  #444  
Old 06-06-2019, 12:42
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/06/2019

As expected by many market participants, the European Central Bank on Thursday left interest rates unchanged. In a statement following the meeting on Thursday, the ECB confirmed its intention to leave the key rate at the current level of -0.40% at least until the end of the year and continue to reinvest the income from bonds into the debt portfolio.
The euro reacted quite restrained to this news, while the EUR / USD pair rose only by 38 points, to the level of 1.1272.
Now market participants will closely follow the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi at the press conference, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). Draghi will present new forecasts by ECB economists, which may reflect lower expectations for economic growth next year. He will also present the conditions of a new long-term lending program for banks.
With the escalation of risks to the global economy, the uncertainties associated with Brexit and the situation in Italy and after the recent elections to the European Parliament, Mario Draghi can still allow the ECB’s softer monetary policy to be possible in its speech.
If he gives a signal in this direction, the euro may sharply decline, despite its restrained reaction after the ECB published its decision on interest rates.
Also at this time (12:30 GMT) data on the balance of foreign trade, non-agricultural labor productivity and applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. Positive statistics from the US can give a positive impetus to the dollar and negatively affect the dynamics of EUR / USD. And, conversely, weak macro data from the United States will put pressure on the dollar.
Meanwhile, after the publication of the ECB decision, the DXY dollar index dropped another 18 points to 97.00, while the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1262 mark.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1315 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
After the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1200, a further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely.
Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1315, 1.1365

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1315, 1.1365



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  #445  
Old 07-06-2019, 10:51
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/07/2019

Last Thursday, the ECB, as is well known, kept its monetary policy unchanged, leaving key interest rates unchanged.
During the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the ECB is “ready to act and use all the tools at its disposal”, hinting that the bank is ready to lower rates or take other measures if necessary.
Nevertheless, the EUR / USD pair rose, and the euro peaked from April 17 after the ECB meeting.
Many economists believe that if the Fed starts to soften the policy, the ECB will probably do the same. Probably already in July, the ECB will announce a rate cut, if the Fed also softens the policy.
On Friday, the euro and the EUR / USD pair are falling, and the dollar strengthens on the eve of the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. According to the forecast, in May, 180,000 new jobs were created in the American economy, while unemployment remained at 3.6%. If the data turns out to be weaker than the predicted values, then the dollar may briefly, but drop sharply.
During this period, a surge in volatility is expected. In the event of a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1220 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will return to a bearish trend. The first signal for this will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1258 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart, ЕМА50 on the 1-hour chart) with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000.
Below the key resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1310 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart) the bearish EUR / USD trend prevails.

Support Levels: 1.1258, 1.1220, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1365

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1220, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1365



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  #446  
Old 10-06-2019, 11:16
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S&P500: Current Dynamics
10/06/2019

US stocks indices rose from the opening of today after last Friday they ended the week as one of the best weeks in the last 6 months. DJIA added 4.7%, S&P500 - 4.4%, and Nasdaq - 3.9%.
The heightened expectations of the Fed's policy easing led to an increase in US stock indices, which continued to recover from a sharp drop last month amid growing risks of escalating international trade wars.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last Tuesday that the Fed "will act according to the need to maintain growth". The worsening economic outlook strengthens the pressure on the Fed leadership towards easing monetary policy, which leads to an increase in US stock indices.
At the beginning of the European session, S&P500 futures traded near the 2884.0 mark, above the important short-term support level of 2840.0 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0), 2800.0 (EMA144), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the bullish trend prevails.
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the return of the S&P500 to the zone below the support level of 2840.0. After the breakdown of the key support level of 2781.0, the targets for further reduction of the S&P500 will be the support levels of 2720.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2645.0 (Fibonacci 50%), 2510.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 2858.0, 2840.0, 2810.0, 2800.0, 2781.0, 2720.0, 2645.0, 2573.0, 2507.0
Resistance Levels: 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 2856.0. Stop Loss 2910.0. Objectives 2840.0, 2810.0, 2800.0, 2781.0, 2720.0, 2645.0, 2573.0, 2507.0
Buy Stop 2910.0. Stop Loss 2856.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0


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  #447  
Old 11-06-2019, 11:04
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AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
11/06/2019

Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. This is the first rate reduction since 2016.
Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, said that the key rate will be reduced to 1% by the end of this year. "The likelihood of lowering interest rates is still not excluded", said Lowe, hinting at the possibility of a further reduction in interest rates. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for the Australian dollar, which continues to decline in the foreign exchange market.
RBA leaders called increased uncertainty in world trade a risk to the Australian economy. By lowering the interest rate, the RBA is trying to accelerate GDP growth, reduce unemployment to 5%, and accelerate inflation.
Meanwhile, the situation in global financial markets is gradually calming down after last Friday Donald Trump tweeted that the imposition of duties on goods from Mexico has been canceled, so far.
Investors are gradually emerging from defensive assets, acquiring more profitable, but also more risky assets of the stock market. The demand for the dollar is also growing, despite expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates.
At the beginning of the European session, the DXY dollar index futures traded near the 96.72 mark, 14 points higher than the opening price of the current week, and the AUD / USD pair - near the 0.6955 mark.
Now investors will follow the publication on Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market. If they turn out to be worse than the forecast or weaker than the previous values, then AUD will accelerate the decline. A positive report on the labor market will support AUD.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7085 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7140 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.
Breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.6974 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 0.6962 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart) speaks in favor of further reducing AUD / USD with reduction targets located at support levels of 0.6900, 0.6830 (2016 lows), 0.6770.
Support Levels: 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.6962, 0.6974, 0.7000, 0.7085, 0.7140

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7025. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7025. Stop Loss 0.6940. Take-Profit 0.7085, 0.7140


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  #448  
Old 13-06-2019, 11:22
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
13/06/2019

EUR / USD failed to develop an upward correction above the resistance level of 1.1310 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On Wednesday, EUR / USD resumed its decline after the publication at the beginning of the American session of positive macro statistics from the United States, indicating a modest, but still rising inflation in the United States.
As the US Department of Labor reported on Wednesday, consumer prices in May increased compared to April, but less significantly than expected (in annual terms, +1.8% against the forecast of +1.9% and +2.0% in April). The base consumer price index, which does not take into account food and energy, rose by 2% compared with May 2018, compared with the expected growth of 2.1%.
Next week, the Fed decides on rates. Published statistics are unlikely to give the Fed a reason to lower rates, although it may signal a decrease in rates in the second half of this year.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD has remained in the global downtrend since May 2014.
At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, EUR / USD is trading near support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1278 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Breakdown of these support levels will accelerate the EUR / USD decline towards annual lows near the support level of 1.1125.
Negative dynamics prevails; short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1285, 1.1278, 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1365

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1270. Stop-Loss 1.1320. Take-Profit 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1320. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1365


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  #449  
Old 14-06-2019, 12:16
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WTI: Current Dynamics
14/06/2019

Despite the rise on Thursday, during the Asian session on Friday, oil prices again resumed their decline. Investors are concerned about weakening demand and increasing oversupply in the United States. Last Tuesday, in the monthly report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day, or 15% from the previous month, due to concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.
The trade conflict between the US and China, the threat to the growth of the world economy and oil demand, as well as the growth of US oil reserves (oil reserves in the country rose to 485 million barrels, the maximum since July 2017) contribute to the increase in the negative trend in the oil market.
Participants in the oil market also believe that the situation with the attack on tankers could be another geopolitical fear.
If a deal to reduce oil production by OPEC + (OPEC meeting is scheduled for the end of June) is not extended, the fall in oil prices may accelerate.
On Friday at 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will present a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. At the moment, their number is 789 units.
If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations, this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is quoted at $52.00 per barrel, below the important resistance levels of 59.50 (50% Fibonacci level), 59.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the level of support near the 42.15 mark).
Mostly negative dynamics. Long-term targets are located near the 42.15 mark (lows of December 2018). Relevant short positions.
Support Levels: 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 53.25, 55.40, 56.85, 59.00, 59.50

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 53.50. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 43.00
Buy Stop 53.50. Stop Loss 51.50. Take-Profit 55.40, 56.85, 59.00, 59.50


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  #450  
Old 17-06-2019, 11:54
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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
17/06/2019

Negative momentum continues to dominate the pound. Domestic political risks are added to weak macro statistics after Theresa May’s resignation from the post of prime minister and against the background of increasing likelihood of a hard Brexit. On Tuesday, the second round of voting for the candidacy of the new head of the Conservatives will take place. A favorite among 6 candidates is Boris Johnson.
The pound will also be pressured by the risk of early elections in the UK, which may take place in December.
And this week, investors will follow the meeting of the Bank of England. On Thursday (11:00 GMT) the decision of the Bank of England on the rate will be published. Probably, the rate will remain unchanged, at the level of 0.75%. However, volatility may rise sharply in the foreign exchange market if unexpected statements are made by the management of the Bank of England. Signals in favor of tightening monetary policy, which, however, is unlikely in the current situation, will cause a sharp short-term strengthening of the pound.
However, below the key resistance levels of 1.2970 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200) long-term negative dynamics prevail.
Still, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2480
Resistance Levels: 1.2600, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2620. Take-Profit 1.2480
Buy Stop 1.2620. Stop Loss 1.25800. Take-Profit 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800


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  #451  
Old 18-06-2019, 11:06
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AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
06/18/2019

As follows from the minutes published on Tuesday (01:30 GMT) from the meeting of the RBA, held on June 4, the bank's management signaled a tendency to further easing of monetary policy. Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, stated that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate". According to the leaders of the central bank, unemployment should fall from the current level of 5.2% to 4.5% in order for inflation to accelerate to the target range of 2% -3%.
Many economists predict two or more rate cuts this year and a key rate reaching a record minimum of 0.75%.
This is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further weakening AUD.
Meanwhile, the attention of financial market participants is shifted to the 2-day Fed meeting, which will end on Wednesday with the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the interest rate decision. Probably, the rate will remain at the same level of 2.5%. However, signals from the leadership of the Fed in favor of lowering the rate by the end of this year will put downward pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the demand for the US dollar is likely to save.
The US economy looks more resilient in international trade conflicts.
AUD / USD continues to decline, remaining in a long-term bearish trend since July 2014. The lows of the last wave of decline are located near the mark of 0.6830. A strong negative impulse prevails in anticipation of a further reduction in the RBA interest rate. The immediate goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows).
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7070 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7125 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7070, 0.7125

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6880. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.6880. Stop Loss 0.6820. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6955, 0.6980, 0.7000


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  #452  
Old 19-06-2019, 10:17
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
19/06/2019

Since May 2014, EUR / USD remains in the global downtrend. At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1200 mark, below resistance levels 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1243 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The focus of traders on Wednesday is the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Fed decision on rates. It is expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 2.5%. Nevertheless, many financial market participants are waiting for signals from the Fed about the possibility of lowering the rate.
At 18:30 (GMT), the Fed’s press conference will begin. Market participants will analyze the statements of the Fed Chairman to understand how likely a decrease in the rate is in July. The soft tone of the statement and press conference or direct signals aimed at easing monetary policy will cause an increase in stock indices and a fall in the dollar, including against the euro.
The soft monetary policy of the central bank usually contributes to the cheapening of the national currency.
In the current situation, technical analysis fades into the background. Probably the most cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.
Breakdown of the local support level of 1.1180 will accelerate the EUR / USD decline towards annual lows near the support level of 1.1125.
If the Fed announces a rate cut, at least later this year, the dollar will decline and the EUR / USD pair will go towards resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.13050 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Below these levels, negative dynamics prevail; short positions still look better.
Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1230, 1.1243, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1355

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1170. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1355


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  #453  
Old 20-06-2019, 11:51
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USD/JPY: Current Situation
20/06/2019

USD / JPY resumed its decline after the Fed meeting ended on Wednesday. As you know, on Wednesday, the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "the committee (FOMC) wants a clearer picture of the economic situation". At the same time, Powell also said that "the arguments in favor of additional policy easing were strengthened". This statement was considered by investors as a signal to the Fed rate cut soon, and the dollar fell on sales.
On Thursday, the management of the Bank of Japan decided to leave the target level of yield on 10-year Japanese bonds around zero, and the short-term deposit rate at -0.1%.
At the same time, the bank promised to maintain the current extra-soft monetary policy at least until the spring of 2020.
However, this did not prevent further decline of the USD / JPY pair.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 107.00, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the pair’s fall correction from the level of 125.65 that began in June 2015), 104.70 (2018 lows).
A strong negative dynamic prevails. Short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70
Resistance Levels: 108.35, 108.80, 109.15, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50

Trading scenarios

Buy Stop 108.40. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 109.15, 109.70, 110.15, 110.50
Sell Stop 107.40. Stop Loss 108.40. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00, 104.70


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  #454  
Old 21-06-2019, 10:57
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WTI: price increase is corrective in nature
06/21/2019
Current Dynamics

Since the opening of today's trading day, WTI crude oil has been trading in a narrow range near the mark of 57.00 dollars per barrel. One of 3 key resistance levels (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) passes through this mark. Below this level and resistance levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.15 mark), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) is dominated by a long-term negative dynamic.
The current increase in the price of oil, which is observed this week, so far can be described as corrective, provoked by a number of fundamental factors.
This is the growth of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the weakening of the dollar, occurring against the backdrop of the Fed's statements about the increased likelihood of monetary easing. After last week two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, on Thursday, US officials reported a missile attack on a desalination plant in Saudi Arabia, which was allegedly inflicted from Yemen. Later, the Islamic Revolutionary Corps announced that it had shot down an American reconnaissance drone over Iranian territory. The United States on Thursday announced preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran.
Earlier, the Iranian authorities have repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, if US sanctions against Iran are not lifted.
The increased risk of oil supply disruptions from the Middle East, coupled with a weaker dollar, led to a sharp rise in oil prices this week.
On Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States from the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations (788 units at the moment), this may give an additional positive impetus to prices.
Nevertheless, it is premature to consider price growth above key resistance levels 59.00, 59.50.
Below these resistance levels, a long-term bearish trend prevails.
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Trading recommendations
At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is priced at $ 57.00 per barrel, below the important resistance levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to the support near 42.15), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of support levels of 56.40 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) with long-term goals located near the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci 0% and lows of December 2018).
Support Levels: 56.40, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 57.00, 59.00, 59.50

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 55.30. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 59.00, 59.50




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  #455  
Old 24-06-2019, 12:51
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/24/2019

The dollar continued to decline in the first half of the trading day on Monday. At the beginning of the US session, the DXY dollar index futures, reflecting the value of the dollar to a basket of 6 major currencies, is trading near the 95.62 mark, 10 points lower than the closing price last Friday. The weekly drop in the index was the strongest since February 2018. The main driver of the dollar decline in the current situation is the expectation of a Fed rate cut soon.
Against the background of a falling dollar, the EUR / USD pair is rising after the pair reached a 3-month high on Friday near the 1.1377 mark. At the beginning of the American session, EUR / USD is trading near the 1.1390 mark after the publication (08:00 GMT) of the IFO indices for Germany, which showed that the European economy is still far away from the recovery.
EUR / USD broke through on Friday the key resistance level of 1.1355 and continues to grow towards the 1.1400 mark. The long-term goal of growth is the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
However, near the level of 1.1400 possible rebound.
In the case of a return to the zone below the level of 1.1355, short positions will again become relevant.
The breakdown of support levels of 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) will confirm the return of EUR / USD to the global bearish trend.
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1415. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1285, 1.1243, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1415. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1600



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  #456  
Old 25-06-2019, 11:57
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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
06/25/2019

NZD / USD is trying to develop an upward trend caused by the weakening of the USD. On Monday, US President Donald Trump resumed criticism of the Fed’s monetary policy actions, tweeting that "they are like a stubborn child, while we need lower rates and a softer policy to compensate for other countries’ actions against us".
Combined with Trump’s criticism, the soft rhetoric of the Fed’s leadership, and amid weak macro statistics recently coming in from the US, the US dollar has dropped significantly in the foreign exchange market. The DXY dollar index fell 1.85% last week to 95.72. The weekly drop in the index was the strongest since February 2018.
Nevertheless, the current growth of NZD / USD is more like an upward correction, rather than replacing the global downtrend with an uptrend.
Below the key resistance level of 0.6720 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a long-term bearish trend prevails, starting at 0.8820 in July 2014. In view of this, a rebound is possible from the resistance levels of 0.6685, 0.6720.
The return of NZD / USD to the zone below support level 0.6605 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will be a signal to resume sales with targets at support levels 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (Fibonacci level 0% and lows of the global decline wave from 0.8820, which started in July 2014).
Support Levels: 0.6605, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6685, 0.6720, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920




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  #457  
Old 26-06-2019, 11:21
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/26/2019

The market has lowered its expectations regarding the Fed’s soon monetary easing.
Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "the central bank should not react too sharply to any economic data or short-term changes in sentiment, as this will increase the uncertainty around the outlook for the economy".
From the news for today we are waiting for the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of a block of important macro statistics from the US, which should support the dollar.
The dollar is gradually recovering previously lost positions, and the EUR / USD pair is attempting to return to the zone below 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) key level, which will mean the recovery of the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD.
The breakthrough of the short-term support level of 1.1317 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of sales with targets at the support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (minimum June), 1.1125 (minimum of a year).
An alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1410 and further growth of EUR / USD, and the long-term growth target will be the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1317, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1415. Take-Profit 1.1317, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1415. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1510, 1.1600


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  #458  
Old 27-06-2019, 11:30
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WTI: Current Dynamics
06/27/2019

The oil market has a very controversial situation. The growth of geopolitical tensions associated with the situation in the Gulf of Oman, and the threat of interruptions in the supply of oil from this region are pushing prices up. The two-week rally, which began in the middle of the month from a level near the mark of 50.50 dollars per barrel of WTI oil, is happening against this background. On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published regular weekly data indicating a significant decline in oil reserves in the country (-12.788 million barrels to 470 million barrels). This gave additional upward momentum to oil prices, which allowed them to grow to key levels of 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to support near 42.15), 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
At the same time, further growth is constrained by the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and oil consumption.
As expected, at the G20 summit this weekend will meet US President Trump and DPRK President Xi Jinping. Many experts believe that they will not be able to make progress in the negotiations to achieve a trade truce. Negative news from the G20 summit and
concerns about global economic growth may lead to a resumption of lower prices.
On Thursday, WTI crude oil traded near resistance levels of 59.50, 59.00. Below these levels short positions will become relevant again. Only a breakthrough to the zone above the local resistance level of 60.90 will confirm the revival of the bullish trend, and the price will head towards the annual highs near the 66.00 dollars mark. Long-term goals of decline are located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of December 2018).
Support levels: 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 59.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 57.50. Stop Loss 60.10. Take-Profit 56.80, 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 60.10. Stop Loss 57.50. Take-Profit 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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  #459  
Old 28-06-2019, 12:08
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EUR/USD: pending new drivers
28/06/2019

Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Friday. According to the data presented, consumer price indices (CPI) in Italy and France rose in June and were better than forecast. The core consumer price index published at 09:00 (GMT) also showed an increase in consumer inflation in the Eurozone (+1.1% in annual terms, against the forecast of +1.0% and against +0.8% in May).
After the publication of data, EUR / USD rose by 30 points, to the level of 1.1392. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. The high value, as well as the growth of the rate is a positive factor for EUR.
However, EUR / USD was not able to develop an upward trend above 1.1392. Inflation in the Eurozone is still at extremely low levels, well below the target level of the ECB, set at just below 2.0%. Eurozone's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in June compared with the same period last year, after a 1.2% increase in May. This is a negative factor for the euro. It is possible that the ECB, at a meeting on July 25, will take additional measures to stimulate the economy.
On Friday, investor attention will be focused on the G-20 leaders meeting in Osaka. Investors are waiting for a shift in the trade confrontation between the United States and China towards a new trade agreement. Probably, trading in financial markets in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting will be held in the range.
If the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which is scheduled for Saturday, ends in nothing, then most likely the global stock indexes will react with a fall, and the demand for defensive assets will rise again. Then the Fed will be forced yet to begin easing monetary policy, which will cause a further weakening of the dollar.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD spent the current week in the range between the local resistance level of 1.1410 and the support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for movement in one direction or another will be the breakdown of one of the range boundaries (levels 1.1410, 1.1355).
The reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1275 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year); growth targets - at the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1285, 1.1275, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



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  #460  
Old 01-07-2019, 11:11
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AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
01/07/2019

As part of the G20 summit held in Osaka last Sunday, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to suspend a trade war between these countries. The United States will indefinitely postpone the introduction of duties on Chinese goods worth about $ 300 billion, while China promised to start buying large amounts of agricultural products in the United States.
Investors are inspired by the outcome of the G20 summit in Osaka, which ended last weekend, and global stock indices once again rushed up.
The dollar also rose from the opening of today's trading day, and the AUD / USD pair has dropped sharply, despite the very successful start of the trading day.
According to Caixin, in June, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in China fell to 49.4 from 50.2 in May. The indicator for the first time in four months was below the threshold of 50.0, separating the growth of activity from its decline.
The official PMI for the manufacturing sector of China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday, remained unchanged in June, reaching 49.4, which is also below the threshold of 50.0.
Negative macro statistics from China put pressure on New Zealand and Australian dollars.
On Tuesday, the RB of Australia will decide on the interest rate. Early last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps. to 1.25%, for the first time since August 2016, and its head, Philip Lowe, said that "there is reason to expect a lower key rate".
As expected, on Tuesday, the RBA will again lower its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.00%. This is a strong negative fundamental factor for AUD.
Publication of the RBA decision on rates is scheduled for Tuesday (04:30 GMT), and at 09:30 GMT, the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, will begin. A sharp increase in volatility is expected in the AUD / USD.
The different directions of the monetary policies of the RBA and the Fed is a strong fundamental factor for reducing AUD / USD.
The medium-term goal of the decline is located at around 0.6770 (2019 lows). Below the key resistance levels of 0.7060 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7110 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7000, 0.7060, 0.7110

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6969, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7060, 0.7110



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  #461  
Old 02-07-2019, 11:36
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NZD/USD: Trading Recommendations
02/07/2019

Business confidence in New Zealand continues to fall. This was announced on Tuesday by the New Zealand Economic Research Institute (NZIER). The overall business attitude indicator (NZIER business confidence index) fell in Q2 from -29% to -34%, its lowest level in 10 years.
After the publication of this data, the New Zealand dollar fell, remaining under pressure from Monday after the G20 summit ended last weekend and after the publication of weak economic data from China on Monday.
China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand, buying in this country a significant amount of agricultural production.
At the end of last month, the RBNZ retained the rate at 1.50%, having reduced it earlier in May by 0.25%, which was the first decrease in the key interest rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand since 2016. At the same time, the bank lowered its forecast for the rate to 1.4% in the short term.
On Tuesday, we are waiting for the publication (in the period after 13:45 GMT) of the data with the results of the dairy auction. Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.8%. The next drop in world prices for dairy products (forecast: -3.6%) will put pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
Below the key resistance level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable; long-term bearish trend started from 0.8820 in July 2014, prevails. A break of the short-term support level of 0.6653 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will signal a resumption of sales with targets at the support levels of 0.6490 (2019 lows), 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (Fibonacci 0% level and minimums of the global decline wave of the pair with level 0.8820, which began in July 2014).
Support Levels: 0.6653, 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6715, 0.6726, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6645. Stop Loss 0.6690. Take-Profit 0.6610, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6690. Stop Loss 0.6645. Take-Profit 0.6715, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6920


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  #462  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:48
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
03/07/2019

The Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday after the Markit Economics agency published data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the Eurozone. PMI indices rose in June (to 52.2 and 53.6, respectively, against 51.8 and 52.9 in May).
However, the euro is under pressure after last Monday at the White House announced the possibility of imposing additional duties on goods from Europe worth $ 4 billion a year, depending on the outcome of the proceedings at the WTO to subsidize Airbus.
Investors are also evaluating the decision of the European Commission to nominate Christine Lagarde to head the ECB instead of Mario Draghi, whose term in office ends on October 31. Now, many economists have become even more confident that the bank will ease monetary policy in the coming months. In their opinion, the European Central Bank will lower its key interest rate by 10 basis points in September to -0.50%, and from November resume the program of quantitative easing or net asset purchases in the amount of 30 billion euros per month.
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On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair is trading in a narrow range, a breakthrough from which can determine its further dynamics.
The upper limit of the range passes through the mark 1.1323 (resistance level ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), the lower limit - through the mark 1.1267 (the support level ЕМА50 on the daily chart). The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1267 will open EUR / USD for a deeper decline with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (year lows).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1410, EUR / USD will head towards the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
In general, below the key resistance level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) the global bearish trend prevails. Short positions are preferred.
We are waiting for the publication of data on business activity in the US services sector for June (13:15 and 14:00 (GMT)). As expected, the business activity index (ISM) of the services sector in the US economy will be lower (55.9 against 56.9 in May). This is a high figure, although its relative decline may cause a short-term weakening of the dollar.
Support Levels: 1.1285, 1.1277, 1.1267, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1323, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1260. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop Loss 1.1260. Take-Profit 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600


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  #463  
Old 04-07-2019, 11:59
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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
04/07/2019

At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, the XAU / USD is trading near the mark of 1415.00 dollars per ounce, which is 25 dollars less than the annual maximum of 1440.00 reached at the end of last month. On Wednesday, the XAU / USD pair attempted to update this almost 6-year high on expectations that the Fed could lower its interest rate in July (July 30 - 31).
On the eve of the US President Trump again hinted at the need for a cheaper dollar. He wrote in his Twitter feed that “China and Europe are playing a big game, manipulating currencies, and pumping money into their system to compete with the United States. We must respond accordingly or stay in the cold, who sit and politely watch other countries play their games, as they have been doing for many years”.
On Thursday, the XAU / USD again decreases slightly, and trading volumes are falling. In the US today is the day off on the occasion of the celebration of Independence Day.
Now investors are focused on the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market.
On Wednesday, less optimistic macro data from the USA was published. Thus, the number of jobs in the US private sector in June increased by only 102,000, while economists expected it to increase by 135,000.
Orders for industrial goods in the United States in May decreased by 0.7% compared with the previous month and amounted to 493.57 billion US dollars. This was also reported Wednesday by the US Department of Commerce.
If data from the US labor market also turns out to be weak, then this will increase the likelihood that the Fed will soon reduce the interest rate, which is a strong negative factor for the dollar and a positive one for gold.
As a rule, when the Fed raises the interest rate, the price of gold decreases because it does not bring investment income, and the cost of its acquisition and storage increases.
In the opposite situation, i.e. with the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the growing uncertainty in the financial markets, as well as political or trade conflicts, the demand for gold and its price increase, which we observe in the current situation.
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Thus, in spite of the fact that gold is trading at multi-month highs, it’s too early to talk about stopping price growth and demand for it.
The price has broken the important resistance level of 1380.00 last month (Fibonacci 38.2% level of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00). The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Predominantly strong positive momentum, pushing XAU / USD to new annual highs.
An alternative scenario implies a resumption of dollar growth and a decline in XAU / USD to a key support level of 1298.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of the key support level of 1298.00 will resume the bearish trend, which began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00. Further targets for the decline are at the support levels of 1200.00, 1185.00, 1160.00 (the minimum of 2018).
Support Levels: 1402.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1424.00, 1440.00, 1485.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1398.00. Stop-Loss 1424.00. Take-Profit 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00
Buy Stop 1424.00. Stop Loss 1398.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1485.00


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  #464  
Old 05-07-2019, 11:28
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EUR/USD: on the eve of the NFP publication
05/07/2019

On Friday, the trades are "on the side" of the dollar, while investors are waiting for publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market. In June, unemployment is expected to remain at the level of 3.6%, while the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector increased by 165,000, after +75,000 in May.
This is strong data that will support the dollar with the confirmation of the forecast and will force the Fed to wait a little with the rate decrease.
In the American economy, things are not so bad in comparison with other economies, and American consumers continue to actively spend money.
If the growth of new jobs again turns out to be less than 100,000, and unemployment rises, then the markets will take this as a signal to the Fed in the direction of lowering the rate, and by 50 basis points at once. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will resume with a new force.
Meanwhile, the Eurodollar has been declining since the opening of today's trading day. The EUR / USD pair is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.1260 mark, 23 points lower than the opening price of today's trading day. Weak macro statistics, received at the beginning of the European session from Germany, had a negative impact on the euro. In May, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.2% compared with April, and compared with the same period of the previous year - even more, by 8.6%. The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, and its slowdown will increase the pressure on the ECB towards the adoption of additional incentive measures in the coming months.
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EUR / USD broke through two strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1277 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline. The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1265 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will provoke a further decline of EUR / USD to the targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year).
Below resistance levels 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (monthly maximum)
short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.1265, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1295. Take-Profit 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1295. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600



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  #465  
Old 08-07-2019, 11:53
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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
08/07/2019

Unexpectedly strong report on the US labor market for June reduced the likelihood of aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture in the country in June amounted to +224,000 (against +72,000 in May and the forecast of +165,000 jobs).
Prior to the publication of the report, investors took into account the lowering of the rate at the July Fed meeting by 50 basis points at once. Now investors take into account the 98% probability of lowering interest rates by 0.25% at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31, according to the CME Group.
This week, investors will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at congressional hearings. If he points out that the Fed will adhere to a softer policy by the end of the year, the dollar will again come under pressure.
On Wednesday (14:00 GMT), the Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada at this meeting will leave rates unchanged (at 1.75%).
This is a positive factor for the Canadian currency against the background of the fact that other major central banks are easing their monetary policy.
Also, the Canadian dollar will receive support from the expected increase in oil prices after last week OPEC announced the extension of the transaction to restrict production for 9 months.
Thus, most likely, the pair USD / CAD will retain a tendency to decline.
Last month, USD / CAD broke through the key support level of 1.3260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart.
Downward trend prevails. The targets for the decline are the support levels of 1.3015, 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
Consideration of long positions can be returned after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3109 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the goal at the resistance level of 1.3260. More distant growth targets after the breakdown level of 1.3260 are at resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3109, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3055. Stop Loss 1.3115. Take-Profit 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3115. Stop Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


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  #466  
Old 09-07-2019, 11:44
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
09/07/2019

The dollar continues to strengthen after the publication on Friday of a strong report on the US labor market, which eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve System in the need to set lower interest rates. Last Friday, the EUR / USD pair broke through strong support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that started in May 2014), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and continued to decline. On Tuesday at the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1200 mark, remaining under pressure from the strengthening dollar.
According to the results of a poll conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday, inflation expectations for the year and three years ahead in June reached 2.7% versus 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively in May.
The rise in inflation expectations also eases the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. Now market participants will closely follow the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress on the topic of economics and monetary policy.
If he shows a tendency toward a softer monetary policy, then the dollar may react by lowering. And, conversely, Powell’s tough position will cause a further strengthening of the dollar and increase the credibility of the Fed, especially amid Trump’s growing criticism of the Fed.
Powell's speeches are scheduled for Tuesday at 12:45 (GMT) and Wednesday at 14:00.
At the same time, recent comments by the leaders of the European Central Bank point to an early easing of monetary policy. It is possible that the ECB in July will hint at the possibility of lowering interest rates. This may happen in September with the start of a new bond purchase program worth 630 billion euros.
In general, the Eurodollar global bearish trend prevails. Any growth will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1350, 1.1410 (monthly maximum). Below the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions with targets located at the support levels of 1.1180 (June lows) and 1.1125 (Lows of the year) are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1240. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410



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  #467  
Old 10-07-2019, 11:03
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
10/07/2019

Today is full of important economic events.
At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published, which is expected to remain at the same level of 1.75%.
At 18:00 (GMT) scheduled publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Committee on operations on the Fed open market.
However, the focus of investors will be on Powell’s presentation to the US Congress, which will begin at 14:00.
After the release of strong data on the labor market last Friday, many economists believe that the Fed can now postpone the decision on the need for additional measures. If Powell signals about the probability of lowering interest rates by 0.5% already on July 31, the dollar may sharply decline, and EUR / USD will fly above 1.1300, in the direction of recent highs near the 1.1410 mark.
If he hints that the Fed is not going to lower interest rates before September, then EUR / USD will resume the decline and head towards annual lows near the 1.1125 mark.
Powell most likely favors a 25 basis point decrease in interest rates in July. This decision is expected and already included in the price. After some strengthening, EUR / USD is likely to decline to a zone below the support level of 1.1200.
However, when trading today, one should take into account a sharp increase in volatility during his speech. In this situation, technical analysis fades into the background.
However, below the resistance levels of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1410 (June highs), short positions are preferable.
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). EUR / USD growth above this level will be limited by resistance levels of 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445 (from a technical point of view).
Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410


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  #468  
Old 11-07-2019, 11:14
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
07/11/2019

Shortly after the start of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the Congress on Wednesday, the dollar fell sharply. Powell’s comments reinforced market participants ’confidence that the Fed would cut interest rates already at the July meeting, although Powell declined to directly answer the question of such a scenario. He stressed that the prospects for the US economy in recent weeks have not improved, noting that the sustainability of inflation weakness "is an argument in favor of a more stimulating monetary policy".
EUR / USD rose on Wednesday by 43 points, closely approaching the resistance level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Today Eurodollar growth continued. Nevertheless, despite the growth after yesterday's Powell performance, below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains. The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the alternative scenario, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with intermediate targets at resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to a fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1305 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart). A rise above resistance level 1.1350 is unlikely. World central banks are alarmed by threats to economic growth from tensions in trade relations. The ECB, like several central banks in other countries, is also leaning towards policy easing, although it has less room for more aggressive easing.
Powell’s second appearance is scheduled for today (14:00 GMT). The trigger for reducing the Eurodollar today can be the publication at 11:30 (GMT) of the minutes from the June meeting of the ECB. Also from the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics from the United States, among which are consumer price indices. Their growth is expected in June by + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in May). If the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast, the dollar can partially compensate for yesterday's losses and strengthen, including against the euro.
Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1250. Stop Loss 1.1285. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1285. Stop Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445



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  #469  
Old 12-07-2019, 11:50
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
12/07/2019

Despite the rise during the Asian session, EUR / USD declines again at the beginning of the European session on Friday. The minutes of the June meeting of the European Central Bank published on Thursday showed that, due to low inflation, the Central Bank management is considering additional ways to stimulate the Eurozone economy. Judging by the protocols, the leadership of the Central Bank is preparing to reduce the key interest rate or restart the bond redemption program by 2.6 trillion euros.
At the same time, the dollar also remains under pressure after the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
He hinted that the leadership of the Fed is mostly inclined to ease monetary policy. Powell reiterated that the Fed intends to "act in an appropriate manner to support economic growth".
Thus, the EUR / USD pair is in the grip of expectations of easing in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1260 mark.
Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
A signal for sales with targets located at support levels of 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of a year) will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1260 (ЕМА200 on a 1-hour chart).
In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1350 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with an intermediate goal at resistance 1.1305 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels
1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1260, 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1245. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1410, 1.1445



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  #470  
Old 15-07-2019, 12:11
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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
15/07/2019

The US dollar continues to decline, while investors remain impressed by the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, Powell signaled the Fed’s readiness to lower interest rates. Investors are waiting for such a decrease already at the Fed meeting on July 30-31. As Powell put it, the purpose of such a decline is to protect the American economy from the risks associated with a slowdown in global economic growth and the uncertainties created by conflicts in international trade.
Last Friday, another Fed official, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the FOMC, Charles Evans, also spoke in favor of lowering interest rates in order to counteract inflation weakness. Evans expects two cuts in the federal funds key interest rate this year.
In the wake of the weakening of the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair broke through on Monday the key resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continued to grow at the beginning of the European session, reaching another strong resistance level of 0.6735 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
In case of consolidation in this zone, the growth of NZD / USD may continue towards the resistance levels of 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction in the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8820, which began in July 2014), 0.6910 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 0.7000 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
The signal for sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6685 (EMA144 on the daily chart). Immediate targets of decline are at support levels of 0.6664 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6633 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The trigger for further NZD / USD movement may be the publication (at 22:45 GMT) of the consumer price index for New Zealand for the 2nd quarter, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation. If the forecast is confirmed (+ 0.6% against + 0.1% in the 1st quarter and + 1.7% against + 1.5% in the 1st quarter in annual terms)
the New Zealand dollar is likely to strengthen, including against the US dollar.
Levels of support: 0.6710, 0.6685, 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6735, 0.6800, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6745. Take-Profit 0.6664, 0.6633, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260



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  #471  
Old 16-07-2019, 11:55
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GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/16/2019

The GBP / USD pair failed to develop an upward corrective movement above the short-term resistance level of 1.2540 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), and on Tuesday fell to 1.2410, resuming the decline in the global downtrend.
Probably, market participants have already taken into account in the price reduction of the Fed rate on July 31 and again focused on the problems around Brexit.
Boris Johnson, who is Theresa May’s most likely successor as prime minister, reiterated on Monday that he was ready for a tough Brexit on October 31, when the UK should finally withdraw from the EU, unless an agreement is reached between the parties.
The pound was also unable to get support after the publication on Tuesday of positive data, according to which, the UK labor market remains in force, despite the slowdown in the economy.
Below the key resistance level of 1.2900 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with a long-term goal, located at the support level of 1.2000, are preferable (2017 lows and Fibonacci 0% level of the correction to a decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
In the alternative scenario, the corrective growth of GBP / USD may resume, and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2540, GBP / USD will go to resistance levels of 1.2630 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 1.2765 (June highs, February lows).
Above the resistance levels 1.2765, 1.2800 (upper line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) growth is unlikely.
At 17:00 will begin the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Last week, he unambiguously hinted at the inclination of the Fed leadership to ease monetary policy. Now investors will be waiting for new signals from him in relation to the Fed’s actions at a meeting on July 30 - 31. If he does not touch this topic, the reaction to his speech will be weak.
Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2365
Resistance Levels: 1.2480, 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2520. Take-Profit 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2300
Buy Stop 1.2520. Stop Loss 1.2420. Take-Profit 1.2540, 1.2580, 1.2630, 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2765, 1.2800



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  #472  
Old 17-07-2019, 11:48
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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
07/17/2019

Published on Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce data exceeded market expectations. Compared to May, retail sales in June increased by 0.4% and 3.4% (in annual terms). The forecast assumed an increase of 0.1%. In April and May, sales rose 0.4%. This growth has been going on for four months in a row and indicates consumer confidence in the country's economy.
Consumer spending is the main source of growth for the US economy, as they account for two thirds of GDP.
After the release of new data on retail sales, the prospects for a drastic reduction in interest rates have weakened. All three key reports issued after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee for the Fed, namely, reports on employment, consumer prices and retail sales, were very strong.
Market participants still take into account the rate cut at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31. However, the probability of lowering interest rates by 50 basis points has decreased, and lowering the rate by 25 or 10 basis points, which would be appropriate after Powell’s statements, is already taken into account in the dollar quotes.
Thus, the space for a further fall in the dollar has decreased. Also take into account the propensity of other central banks to soften policies.
From the news for today, which could significantly increase the volatility in the foreign exchange market, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on Canada.
As expected, the core consumer price index (Core CPI) rose in June by 0.1% (+ 2.6% in annual terms). This is positive data that will strengthen CAD when confirming the forecast. Conversely, weak values and indexes worse than forecast will have a negative impact on CAD. Data worse than the forecast can be a driver for the corrective growth of the pair USD / CAD.
The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3071 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). The growth target in the upward correction is resistance levels of 1.3185 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3250 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level, 1.3250 USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs), which will indicate a full recovery of the bullish trend.
Breakdown of the local support level of 1.3045 will direct USD / CAD towards the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and at 1.2975.
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3071, 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3035. Stop Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3015, 1.2975, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop Loss 1.3035. Take-Profit 1.3140, 1.3185, 1.3250, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


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  #473  
Old 18-07-2019, 11:34
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AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/18/2019

Despite the correctional growth that began in the middle of last month, AUD / USD continues to trade below key resistance levels of 0.7050 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7100 (EMA200 on the daily chart), remaining in a long-term bearish trend. The last global wave of decline began in July 2014 from 0.9500. The minima of this wave and of 2016 are located near the level of 0.6830. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 0.6980 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Growth above the resistance levels of 0.7050, 0.7100 is unlikely. Below these key resistance levels, short positions remain preferred. Mostly negative trend.
Intermediate reduction targets are located at support levels of 0.6910 (July lows), 0.6830 (minimums of the global decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500); long-term - at around 0.6770 (2019 lows).
Australia's leading labor market indicators point to a further slowdown in employment growth. It is likely that at this pace that testifies more about a slowdown than about the growth of the Australian labor market, the RBA leadership may go for a further easing of monetary conditions.
Unemployment remains at 5.2%, which is much higher than the forecast of the RBA, which assumed that in the 2nd quarter it will be 5%. Earlier, the RBA stated that they would like to see a fall in unemployment to 4.5% or less, as this will help accelerate wage growth and inflation rates.
From the news today, which can increase volatility in the foreign exchange market, including in the pair AUD / USD, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of the macro statistics block from the USA. Weekly data on the number of unemployment claims in the US can cause an increase in volatility in trading in USD, if they are very different from the predicted values, especially for the worse.
Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Resistance Levels: 0.7050, 0.7100

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7060. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6957, 0.6910, 0.6865, 0.6830, 0.6800, 0.6770
Buy Stop 0.7060. Stop Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7100


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  #474  
Old 19-07-2019, 11:17
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WTI Oil: Current Trends and Recommendations
07/19/2019

Despite a report by the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday and showing a decline in oil reserves in the country, oil prices dropped sharply. Oil reserves in the US declined last week by 3.1 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels. However, it is still about 4% above the average 5-year value for this time of year.
The data of the Ministry of Energy also showed an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 5.7 million barrels, to 136.2 million barrels.
The growth of stocks of petroleum products, according to economists, is due to lower demand in the United States and a decline in exports.
On Thursday, WTI quotes fell to 54.72. In total, since the beginning of the week, the price of WTI crude oil has lost approximately 7.5% by now.
On Friday, oil prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall the day before. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, due to the US-China trade conflict and due to the increase in the volume of shale oil production in the US, oil prices are likely to continue to decline.
On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 784 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Publication of this report is scheduled for 17:00 (GMT).
The price of WTI crude oil has broken through key support levels of 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 56.80 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and continues to decline, trading on Friday near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the European session.
Negative dynamics prevail, short positions are preferable.
Further decline will mean the return of oil prices into a bearish trend.
In the alternative scenario, the growth and price fixing in the zone above the resistance levels of 58.80, 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend. The signal for this will be the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 57.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 58.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.80, 57.65, 58.00, 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 55.30. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 58.40. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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  #475  
Old 22-07-2019, 09:41
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EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/22/2019

Last Thursday, the dollar fell sharply. The reason was the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. In his opinion, the Fed should take prompt action when signs of a weakening economy appear. Investors took his words as a signal to a potential rate cut in July by half a percentage point.
However, a further weakening of the dollar did not occur. Last Friday, the Fed said that the talk about lowering the key rate by half a percentage point and other topics that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said on Thursday, more relate to theoretical assumptions during periods of obvious contraction of the economy. Recent economic data do not indicate the risk of a sharp downturn in the US economy, according to Fed officials.
The rate cut by 0.25% at the meeting on July 30 - 31 was mainly already taken into account in prices, and the probability of a more aggressive easing of the Fed’s monetary policy decreased.
Meanwhile, investors will follow the ECB meeting. On Thursday (at 11:45 GMT) the ECB decision on rates will be published. It is expected that the leaders of the ECB at this meeting so far will keep the current monetary policy unchanged, but may declare a propensity for a softer policy.
The ECB press conference will also begin on Thursday, at 12:30 (GMT).
At the beginning of the European session, the EUR / USD is trading in a narrow range and near the 1.1215 mark. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1195 (July lows).
Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), short positions look preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1195, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1241, 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100
Buy Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1256, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340


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  #476  
Old 23-07-2019, 11:26
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NZD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/23/2019

In the middle of the month, the NZD / USD broke through the key resistance level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and reached a 4-month high near the mark of 0.6790.
The reason for the growth of the pair was mainly the weakening of the US dollar after the Fed leaders expressed a propensity for a softer monetary policy.
Nevertheless, the reduction in the Fed rate at the meeting on July 30 - 31 by 0.25% has already been taken into account, mainly in prices.
If, on the part of the Fed’s management before this date, there is no further wave of verbal intervention regarding the desirability of a lower interest rate, then a further decline in the US dollar is unlikely.
This is well demonstrated by the US dollar index DXY, which is growing today for the third day in a row. DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of today's European session near the 97.20 mark, 40 points higher than the closing price last Friday.
At the same time, the slowdown in the global economy and the increase in import duties negatively affect the export-oriented New Zealand economy. The ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China makes market participants cautious about prospects.
Today, NZD / USD has been falling for the 3rd day in a row, trading above the key support level of 0.6715 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
After the breakdown of the support level of 0.6690 (EMA144 on the daily chart), short positions will again be relevant with the targets of decline at the support levels of 0.6665 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6620.
More distant reduction targets are located at support levels of 0.6490 (2019 lows), 0.6430 (2018 lows), 0.6260 (0% Fibonacci level and minimums of the global decline of the pair from 0.8820 mark).
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6753 (ЕМА200 on the 15-minute chart) with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6790, 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6%).
Volatility in the NZD may sharply increase at 10:45 pm (GMT), when data on New Zealand's foreign trade balance for June will be published, and if the data differ greatly from the forecast values.
So far, above the support level of 0.6715, the positive dynamics of NZD / USD remains.
Support levels: 0.6715, 0.6690, 0.6665, 0.6620, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Resistance Levels: 0.6753, 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6910

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6680. Stop Loss 0.6755. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6620, 0.6585, 0.6560, 0.6490, 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260
Buy Stop 0.6755. Stop Loss 0.6680. Take-Profit 0.6790, 0.6865, 0.6920



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  #477  
Old 24-07-2019, 11:58
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EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/24/2019

On Wednesday, EUR / USD declines for the fourth day in a row. Long-term negative dynamics remains below the resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A strong level that holds EUR / USD from a more significant correction growth is the resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014). In the alternative scenario and after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1285, EUR / USD will move towards the key resistance level of 1.1340 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the intermediate goal at the resistance level of 1.1300 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A more aggressive scenario involves the return of EUR / USD to the zone of resistance levels 1.1410 (monthly maximum), 1.1445. However, this is an unlikely scenario.
In the current situation and below the resistance level of 1.1285, only short positions should be considered.
The PMI purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector in Germany, published on Wednesday, fell to a minimum of 84.1 in 84 months in July from 45.0 in June. The accelerated decline in industrial production in Germany indicates a growing recession risk in this country with the largest economy in Europe.
Investors expect the ECB at its next meeting on Thursday to not change its monetary policy, but Mario Draghi is likely to set the stage for easing monetary policy later, in September or November.
Expectations of such a decision by the ECB put strong pressure on the euro. The publication of the ECB decision on rates will be held on Thursday (at 11:45 GMT), the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30.
Obviously, before these events, the euro and the EUR / USD pair will remain under pressure.
Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1030
Resistance Levels: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1125. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1340



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  #478  
Old 25-07-2019, 10:32
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XAU/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations
07/25/2019

In anticipation of easing monetary policy by the world's largest central banks, global stock indices are rising. Gold quotes are also rising. In addition to expectations of easing monetary policy, primarily from the Fed, the rise in gold prices is stimulated by the preservation of geopolitical tensions and the risks of a slowdown in the global economy against the backdrop of international trade conflicts.
Today, the ECB meeting is in the center of attention of traders. The ECB rate decision will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 12:30. It is widely expected that the ECB will keep its monetary policy unchanged today. More interest to traders will be the press conference. It is highly likely that the head of the bank, Mario Draghi, announces a reduction in the ECB interest rate in September and, possibly, in November, as well as a restart of the quantitative easing program in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros in December.
During this period of time (11:45 - 12:30 GMT) a sharp increase in volatility is expected in the entire financial market, including in gold quotes.
Last week, the XAU / USD pair reached a new 6-year high near the mark of 1452.00.
The signal for short-term sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 1420.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the target at the support levels of 1394.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1380.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Despite a slight decrease in quotations (to the current mark of 1426.00), the bullish trend of gold remains.
Above support levels 1394.00, 1380.00 long positions are preferable. A signal for purchases will be the breakdown of local resistance levels of 1440.00, 1452.00. The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (Fibonacci 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Support Levels: 1420.00, 1394.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1324.00, 1315.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1440.00, 1452.00, 1485.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1413.00. Stop-Loss 1431.00. Take-Profit 1394.00, 1380.00
Buy Stop 1431.00. Stop Loss 1413.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1452.00, 1485.00


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  #479  
Old 26-07-2019, 16:21
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EUR/USD: US GDP exceeded forecast
07/26/2019
Current Dynamics

GDP growth is "not bad, considering" the Fed's interest rate policy. That is how American President Donald Trump reacted to the publication on Friday of data on US GDP for the 2nd quarter, which exceeded market expectations.
The Commerce Department reported on Friday (12:30 GMT) a 2.1% increase in gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter. Economists had expected GDP growth of 1.8%.
Trump again lashed out at the Fed after the publication of GDP data, calling the US central bank "a burden hanging on our neck".
Increased consumer spending leveled the fall in investment by American companies. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, in the 2nd quarter, adjusted for inflation, rose by 4.3% per annum, which is a maximum since the end of 2017, after rising by 1.1% per annum in the previous quarter.
Government spending also spurred GDP growth, adding 5.0% per annum.
The general inflation indicator also rose. The price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the 2nd quarter rose 2.3% after rising 0.4% in the 1st quarter. The base PCE index, which does not take into account the prices of food and energy, rose by 1.8%.
Thus, the ten-year period of economic growth in the United States continued, despite foreign trade tensions and a slowdown in the global economy.
The Commerce Department’s report released Friday showed little impact on expectations that the Federal Reserve would lower its key interest rate by 0.25% at a meeting July 30 - 31.
However, the dollar rose strongly on Friday. His positive dynamics were also spurred by statements by Lawrence Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, who said that the United States would not intervene in the markets in order to lower the rate of its currency.
At the same time, the euro continued to decline against the dollar after the European Central Bank on Thursday signaled its willingness to lower short-term interest rates and restart its large-scale bond purchase program. The current interest rate of the ECB from 2016 is at the level of 0%, and the deposit rate at the level of -0.4%. In a related statement, the ECB expressed concern about the weakening European economy and global negative factors, such as international trade conflicts and Brexit.
The next meeting of the ECB is scheduled for September 12, and it is likely that a whole package of measures will be adopted at this meeting, including a reduction in the interest rate of 0.25% and a restart of the quantitative easing program in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros.

At the time of this writing, the EUR / USD pair was trading near the 1.1120 mark, 25 points lower than the opening price of the trading day on Friday. The negative dynamics of EUR / USD persists after the pair reached a new annual minimum on Thursday near the 1.1100 mark.
In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer.
Below resistance levels of 1.1335 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1290 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics remain.
An upward correction is also possible, but so far no higher than the short-term resistance level of 1.1233 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). There are no prerequisites for more confident growth of EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1100, 1.1030
Resistance Levels: 1.1187, 1.1233, 1.1285, 1.1290, 1.1335, 1.1410, 1.1445

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1160. Take-Profit 1.1100, 1.1030
Buy Stop 1.1160. Stop Loss 1.1100. Take-Profit 1.1187, 1.1233, 1.1285, 1.1290, 1.1335


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  #480  
Old 29-07-2019, 11:42
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S&P500: Current dynamics before the Fed meeting
07/29/2019

Expectations of easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming from the United States are pushing major US stock indexes to new heights.
Last week, the S&P500 index updated its record high near the 3028.0 mark after the US Department of Commerce released a report, according to which GDP grew in the 2nd by +2.1% (annualized) after +3.1% in the 1st quarter, with a forecast of +2.0%. At the same time, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, in the 2nd quarter grew at the highest rate since the end of 2017, reaching +4.3%.
Trump again lashed out at the Fed after the publication of GDP data, calling the US central bank "a burden hanging on our neck", although GDP growth, in his opinion, was "not bad, given" the Fed's policy.
At the same time, the GDP report did not affect expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the meeting July 30 - 31, given the continuing risks of a downturn in the global economy and the need to achieve the target inflation rate.
Interest for investors will be the accompanying statements by the Fed leadership and a press conference following a meeting of the central bank. If Jerome Powell signals a propensity to lower the rate in September or before the end of the year, in this case, US stock indexes will accelerate their growth.
Since the opening of today's trading day, the S&P500 is trading in a narrow range near the 3020.0 mark.
Above support levels 2840.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), the bullish trend of the S&P500 remains.
The signal for sales and the start of a downward correction will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 3004.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 2965.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart and highs of May), 2937.0 (2018 highs).
So far, long positions are preferred. However, it is also likely that the S&P500 will remain in the current range until the end of the Wednesday when the Fed’s decision and plans are known.
Support Levels: 3004.0, 2965.0, 2937.0, 2865.0, 2840.0, 2765.0
Resistance Levels: 3028.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3030.0. Targets 2965.0, 2937.0
Buy Stop 3030.0. Stop Loss 2990.0. Targets 3050.0, 3100.0, 3200.0


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