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  #401  
Old 03-04-2019, 11:00
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
03/04/2019

Eurozone's composite purchasing managers' index (PMI), which assesses activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, in March was 51.6 against 51.9 in February. A value above 50 indicates an increase in activity.
This was reported on Wednesday in the IHS Markit. The activity in the Eurozone service sector grew in March at the fastest pace since November last year, while in the manufacturing sector, the maximum decline in production since April 2013 was observed.
The euro strengthened at the beginning of the European session on positive data, indicating growth in the Eurozone services sector.
The index of purchasing managers for the Eurozone service sector rose to 53.3 from 52.8 in February.
Nevertheless, the leading manufacturing PMI indicators indicate that in the coming months, production in the Eurozone will continue to decline, which increases the downside risks for the European economy.
Macroeconomic data this week will remain the focus of market participants. On Friday (12:30 GMT) a report on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in March will be released. Strong performance is expected, which will confirm the stability of the American economy against the background of a general slowdown in economic growth in other countries with major economies.
In view of this, the demand for the dollar may continue in the short term.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Despite the growth of the euro on Wednesday, the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD, which began in May 2014 near the 1.3870 mark, remains.
At the moment, EUR / USD is trying to break through the short-term resistance level of 1.1250 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). However, the growth will be limited by the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1300 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1310 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). Growth above the resistance level of 1.1310 is unlikely.
The reduction targets are at the support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1250, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1310, 1.1410, 1.1460

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1270. Stop Loss 1.1235. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1310, 1.1410, 1.1460


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #402  
Old 04-04-2019, 12:26
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EUR/USD: Current dynamics
04/04/2019

As follows from the minutes of the March meeting of the European Central Bank published on Thursday (11:30 GMT), its leaders at the March meeting discussed more aggressive incentive measures, expressing concern about the steady trend of a slowdown in the European economy.
The ECB leaders indicated that they can adjust their policies if necessary. The main interest rates of the ECB have long remained unchanged (0% and -0.4%).
Many market participants and economists do not expect monetary tightening to begin before 2020, amid signs of a slowdown in the European economy.
On Thursday, weak macro data were published, indicating a significant reduction in production orders in Germany.
According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany in February fell by 4.2% compared with January (the forecast was +0.5%). In annual terms, production orders fell in February by 8.4%, which is significantly worse than the forecast (-5.4%) and the previous value (-3.9%).
A number of German economic institutions lowered the forecast for German economic growth in 2019 to 0.8% from 1.9%, citing political risks. In addition, economists warn that the growth rate of the German economy, whose economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, may turn out to be "markedly lower" than current forecasts in the case of a tough Brexit.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Euro responded with a decrease to the information provided.
At the beginning of the American session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1220 mark, below the short-term resistance level of 1.1248 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Negative dynamics prevails. Short positions are preferable, and the goals of decline are at the support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
Only a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1310 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1410 (ЕМА144), 1.1460 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1248, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1310, 1.1410, 1.1460

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1255. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1255. Stop Loss 1.1200. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1310, 1.1410, 1.1460


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #403  
Old 05-04-2019, 11:58
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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/04/2019

Futures on the dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 major currencies, is traded on Friday in a narrow range, near the mark of 96.92. Investors are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the US labor market.
It is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector of the US economy in March was 180,000 (against +20,000 in February), while unemployment remained at the same level of 3.8%. These are strong indicators that can support the dollar.
If the growth of NFP is below 100,000, this may cause concern for investors and economists, indicating that the growth of the American economy is slowing.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Meanwhile, the last 6 days, the XAU / USD pair is in a narrow range near the current levels due to the lack of strong drivers for further movement either down or up. Probably, today will provide investors with such guidelines. A strong report from the US labor market will strengthen the dollar and send a pair of XAU / USD to strong support levels of 1277.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart and Fibonacci 61.8% level of the correction to the decline wave since July 2016), 1274.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Breakdown of the support level of 1266.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) will return XAU / USD to the global bearish trend that began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00 and direct it to the support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (minimums of 2018).
The weak data on the labor market, on the contrary, will increase the attractiveness of gold. The immediate targets for the growth of XAU / USD will be resistance levels of 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
Support Levels: 1285.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1266.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1296.00, 1302.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1284.00. Stop-Loss 1297.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1274.00, 1266.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1297.00. Stop-Loss 1284.00. Take-Profit 1302.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #404  
Old 08-04-2019, 12:15
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WTI: long positions are preferred
08/04/2019
Current dynamics

Against the background of increased geopolitical risks with oil supplies from a number of oil-producing countries, oil quotes rose sharply last week.
Even the US Department of Energy reports about a significant increase in oil reserves in the country last week, as well as a report by the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes, indicating an increase in active oil platforms in the United States to 831 units, could not stop the rise of the oil prices. Risks of oil supplies from Libya, where civil war rages, were added to the risks of restricting the supply of oil from Iran and Venezuela.
Investor expectations of a positive outcome of trade negotiations between the United States and China also contributed to the rise in oil prices. Last Friday, US President Donald Trump said that a compromise is possible with China to get out of the trade conflict.
Thus, last week, oil prices reached their next annual highs.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

On Friday, the price of Brent crude oil rose 1.7% to $ 70.90 a barrel, while WTI oil rose on Friday to $ 63.15 a barrel.
Despite the fact that on Monday the growth of prices stopped, a further increase in oil prices is likely.
The breakdown of the local resistance level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level of 61.8%) will create the prerequisites for further growth in the price of WTI crude oil.
Above key support levels of 59.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the past few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.14) the long-term bullish trend remains.
Only a breakdown of support levels of 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.
While positive dynamics prevail, long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 61.40, 59.50, 59.00, 56.50, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 63.50, 65.00, 66.00, 68.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 61.30. Stop Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 61.00, 59.50, 59.00, 56.50, 55.40
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop Loss 61.30. Take-Profit 64.00, 65.00, 66.00, 68.00, 73.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #405  
Old 09-04-2019, 15:45
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EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting
Current dynamics
09/04/2019

The Eurodollar is trading higher on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the next meeting of the ECB. According to many economists, it is not worth waiting for any decisive action by the leadership of the ECB. The ECB has already taken into account in its current policy downward risks for the growth of the European economy and inflation.
In March, the ECB has already taken some steps towards easing its monetary policy. Probably on Wednesday, ECB leaders can again discuss the details of the TLTRO.
However, an element of unexpected statements is still present in the market, which holds back the growth of the Eurodollar. ECB Head Mark Carney is able to turn back markets. Some of his previous statements moved the euro by 3-5% for the short time.
The Eurodollar is also weakly responding to the threat of the introduction of US import duties on European cars imported into the United States. On Tuesday, the White House administration proposed imposing duties on imports of goods from the EU in the amount of $ 11 billion in response to EU subsidies for Airbus. However, if the United States does impose import duties on cars imported from Europe, then the Eurozone economy can be dealt a significant blow, since the automotive industry is one of the key sectors of the European economy.
The ECB's decision on rates will be published on Wednesday (11:45 GMT), and at 12:30 the press conference of the ECB will begin. Any signals from the leadership of the ECB in favor of easing monetary policy will cause a sharp decline in the euro.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

On Tuesday, EUR / USD develops an upward trend, adjusting after a significant decline. Nevertheless, Eurodollar growth is constrained by strong levels of resistance
(Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1290 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1300 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Below these levels, short positions with targets located at support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000 are preferred.
If the ECB management on Wednesday make unexpected statements regarding monetary policy in the direction of its tightening, after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1300 EUR / USD will move to resistance levels of 1.1400 (ЕМА144), 1.1450 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1290, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1450

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1450


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #406  
Old 10-04-2019, 11:14
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XAU/USD: the demand for gold is growing again
10/04/2019
Current Dynamics

In less than an hour, the ECB’s rate decision will be published. It is widely expected that the main interest rates of the ECB will remain at the same level of 0% and -0.4%, and the management of the ECB will again speak out in favor of maintaining a soft monetary policy.
At 16:00 (GMT) the EU summit dedicated to Brexit will begin. EU leaders during the summit will discuss the possibility of extending the UK exit from the block. The EU leaders are likely to give Britain more time.
At 18:00 (GMT), the minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed will be published (“FOMC Minutes”).
Many economists expect US interest rates to remain unchanged in 2019 and to be reduced in 2020. This is a negative factor for the dollar and a positive one for gold quotes. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials about the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth, and gold prices may weaken. However, a significant drop in gold prices in the current environment (slowing global economy and rising political and trade tensions in the world) is also not expected.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

XAU / USD trades in a narrow range on the eve of important events, near the mark of 1306.00 dollars per ounce, above the short-term support levels of 1299.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1301.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and above the key support levels of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61, 8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1274.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Long term uptrend persists.
In the case of a breakdown of support levels of 1301.00, 1299.00, XAU / USD will decline in the direction of key support levels of 1277.00, 1274.00.
The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
Support Levels: 1301.00, 1299.00, 1285.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1266.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1298.00. Stop Loss 1308.00. Take-Profit 1285.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1266.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1308.00. Stop Loss 1298.00. Take-Profit 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #407  
Old 11-04-2019, 11:54
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EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios
11/04/2019

The soft rhetoric of the ECB leaders and their signals about the likelihood of easing of monetary policy, sounded on Wednesday, could not stop the growth of the Eurodollar. The EUR / USD pair has grown, mainly due to the weakening dollar. Fed leaders, according to the minutes of the March meeting of the American central bank, published on Wednesday, concerned about the slowdown in the global economy, which threatens to worsen the situation in the US economy. It follows from the protocols that the leaders of the central bank do not see the conditions for a further increase in interest rates.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Having reached the level of 1.1190 at the beginning of the month (lows of March and 2019), EUR / USD turned "north" and continued to grow, up to the current European session.
Nevertheless, EUR / USD again failed to overcome the important resistance level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) and resumed its decline by the beginning of the American session.
A break of the short-term support level of 1.1255 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of EUR / USD sales.
The growth scenario will be associated with fixing in the zone above the resistance level of 1.1300, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to resistance levels of 1.1395 (ЕМА144), 1.1450 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Below resistance level 1.1285 short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1255, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1395, 1.1450

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1370, 1.1395, 1.1450



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #408  
Old 12-04-2019, 13:37
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AUD / USD: Current Dynamics
12/04/2019

Positive macro statistics from China contributes to the growth of commodity currencies and stock indices on Friday. AUD / USD traded at the beginning of the US trading session near the strong resistance level of 0.7170 (EMA144 on the daily chart) on a positive impulse received from the publication of strongly Chinese macro statistics.
In the event of a breakdown of this level, the next upside target for AUD / USD will be the key resistance level of 0.7217 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), a rise above which is unlikely.
In the case of a rebound from the resistance level of 0.7170 and a return below the support level of 0.7127 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), short positions will again become relevant.
In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Below resistance levels 0.7170, 0.7217 short positions are preferable. Long-term bearish trend persists.
Support Levels: 0.7140, 0.7127, 0.7112.0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7220. Take-Profit 0.7140, 0.7127, 0.7112,0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6980
Buy Stop 0.7220. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7295


*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #409  
Old 15-04-2019, 11:34
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EUR/USD: Current dynamics
15/04/2019

The dollar fell by the end of last week. On Friday, the DXY dollar index closed with a 0.2% fall, at 96.97. According to the minutes of the March meeting of the American central bank, the Fed leaders are concerned about the slowdown in global economic growth, which threatens to worsen the situation in the US economy. It follows from the protocols that the leaders of the central bank do not see the conditions for a further increase in interest rates.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of the Federal Reserve System, stating that "quantitative tightening was a murderer, the opposite should have been done". On Sunday, Trump tweeted that the economy and the stock market could have grown faster, "if the Fed had done its job properly".
On Monday, the dollar continues to decline, while DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 96.45 mark, 10 points lower than the opening price of the trading day.
On Monday, the publication of important macro data is not planned. Probably, trading in financial markets will be more relaxed than at the end of last week, which was full of important political and economic events.
Investors will also be less active on the eve of the Catholic Easter celebration this Sunday.
Meanwhile, the euro also remains under pressure after the ECB meeting last week. The ECB reported that the rate hikes before next year should not be expected, and the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, warned that the rate of economic growth in Europe this year will continue to decline. Mario Draghi last Wednesday signaled the possibility of implementing new measures to support the European economy in the event of a deterioration in its prospects.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Trading scenarios
Against the background of the weakening dollar, the EUR / USD pair rose sharply last Friday, updating the 3-week high near the 1.1323 mark.
On Monday, the Eurodollar attempted to develop an upward movement, trading in the first half of the trading day above the support level of 1.1300 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Nevertheless, the Eurodollar failed to update the local and Friday maximum.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators turned to short positions on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
Return under support level 1.1300 will be a signal for the resumption of short positions.
The breakdown of support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 per 1-hour chart) will confirm the scenario for the resumption of the EUR / USD decline.
The targets for reducing EUR / USD are at the support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
The growth scenario will be associated with the updating of the local maximum of 1.1323, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1390 (EMA144), 1.1440 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1270, 1.1255, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1323, 1.1390, 1.1440

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1270, 1.1255, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop Loss 1.1270. Take-Profit 1.1370, 1.1390, 1.1440



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #410  
Old 16-04-2019, 11:07
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AUD/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
16/04/2019

"The leadership of the central bank does not see any weighty arguments for adjusting monetary policy in the short term", says the RBA minutes, published Tuesday during the Asian session. After the publication of the minutes from the April meeting of the RBA, the Australian dollar weakened and the AUD / USD dropped by 30 points, to the level of 0.7142, through which the strong short-term support level passes (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to short positions. In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7142, AUD / USD will move to the support level of 0.7120 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will increase the risk of a return to the global bearish trend. In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Below resistance levels 0.7170 (ЕМА144), 0.7217 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 0.7142, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Buy Stop 0.7160. Stop Loss 0.7135. Take-Profit 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #411  
Old 17-04-2019, 11:35
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USD/CAD: Market Expectations
17/04/2019

On Wednesday, commodity currencies strengthened against the US dollar against the backdrop of favorable statistics from China.
At 12:30 GMT Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada will present data on foreign trade in Canada and data on inflation. Consumer prices in February rose by 1.5% (+ 1.4% in January) in annual terms and the base consumer price index rose by + 1.5%. If the data for March are worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than the forecast and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3260 (EMA144), 1.3210 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
USD / CAD declined during the Asian session, breaking short-term strong support levels of 1.3350 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3340 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
The breakdown of the local support level of 1.3300 may increase the risks of further USD / CAD decline with targets at the support levels of 1.3260, 1.3210.
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the levels of 1.3340, 1.3350 with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3450 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3660 ( the highs of 2018), 1.3790 (the highs of 2017).
Support Levels: 1.3320, 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045
Resistance Levels: 1.3340, 1.3350, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045
Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #412  
Old 18-04-2019, 11:24
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/18/2019

Weak macro data from Europe and published at the beginning of the European session on Thursday caused a weakening of the Euro and a drop in the EUR / USD pair.
The preliminary PMI indexes for April were lower than expected. Eurozone production PMI was 47.8, which is below the forecast of 47.9. The compound PMI of the Eurozone was 51.3 against the forecast of 51.8.
The data presented increase the likelihood of further easing of the ECB’s monetary policy.

Having broken through a strong support level of 1.1285 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, as well as a Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD reached a week low near the 1.1243 mark. Breakdown of this local support level will cause further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.
An alternative scenario will be associated with a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1300, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1390 (EMA144), 1.1440 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Short positions are preferred.
In the period from 12:30 to 14:00 GMT, important macro data from the US will be published, which will cause an increase in market volatility. Among the published data that should be noted are the preliminary PMI business indices in the USA for April, as well as data on retail sales. Data worse than the forecast will negatively affect the dollar, which will cause its sales and fixation of long positions on it before the long weekend, associated with the meeting of the Catholic Easter.

Support Levels: 1.1250, 1.1240, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1390, 1.1440

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1240. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1320, 1.1390, 1.1440



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  #413  
Old 19-04-2019, 08:13
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AUD/USD: Support and Resistance Levels
19/04/2019

The US dollar strengthened sharply last Thursday. The strengthening of the dollar was triggered by the fall of the euro on weak macro statistics, which came from the Eurozone at the beginning of the European session on Thursday. In the afternoon, the dollar continued to strengthen on positive statistics from the US.
The AUD / USD pair dropped on Thursday by 0.44% to 0.7148. Financial market participants fear that European problems may spread to other regions, weakening demand for commodities.
Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions. The resumption of corrective growth can direct the pair AUD / USD to resistance levels of 0.7170, 0.7217. However, growth above the level of 0.7217 is unlikely.
Below resistance levels 0.7170 (ЕМА144), 0.7217 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7142, AUD / USD will move to the support level of 0.7127 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will increase the risk of a return to the global bearish trend. In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Support Levels: 0.7142, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980
Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7295

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  #414  
Old 22-04-2019, 10:45
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WTI: Current Dynamics
04/22/2019

In view of the celebration of Catholic Easter (today is the Second Day of Catholic Easter - Easter Monday), the activity of participants in the financial market is small, and the exchanges and banks in Catholic countries are closed.
However, it is worth noting the sharp increase in oil prices from the opening of today's trading day on the background of the news regarding the possible cancellation of indulgences by the US on Iranian sanctions.
At the beginning of the European trading session, the price of WTI crude oil is near the mark of 65.46 dollars per barrel.
Against the background of geopolitical risks that are gaining momentum in the supply of oil, the rally in oil prices may continue. A further rise in oil prices is likely, despite the achievement of new local maxima.

Long-term positive dynamics persist above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 level to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Mostly upward trend in the price of WTI crude oil. Long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 63.50, 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 66.00, 68.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 62.80. Stop Loss 66.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40
Buy Stop 66.20. Stop Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 68.00, 73.00, 76.00


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  #415  
Old 23-04-2019, 11:18
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S&P500: stock index growth slowed
04/23/2019
Current situation

After many days of growth today, the major US stock indices are trading in a narrow range, while maintaining a positive trend.
On Monday, the indices received an additional positive impetus due to the growth of shares in the oil and gas sector due to the jump in oil prices at the beginning of the week.
Oil prices rose sharply after the White House announced that it cancels exceptions to the sanctions on imports of Iranian oil.
Nevertheless, the growth of the indices in recent days has slowed. Investors are waiting for new drivers. On Friday, data on US GDP for the 1st quarter will be published. It is expected that GDP growth slowed down in the 1st quarter to +1.8% versus +2.2% in the 4th quarter of last year. This is negative information for the stock market.
If the data will be even weaker, then this may cause a fall in stock indices.

On Tuesday, the S&P500 is trading in a narrow range near the level of 2905.0. Long-term positive dynamics remains above the key support level of 2753.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
However, any negative macroeconomic information or weak reporting by large American companies, which is expected later this week, may cause a decrease in indices.
The first signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 2898.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support Levels: 2898.0, 2883.0, 2860.0, 2830.0, 2753.0, 2676.0
Resistance Levels: 2918.0, 2936.0

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 2879.0. Stop Loss 2918.0. Objectives 2860.0, 2830.0, 2753.0, 2676.0
Buy Stop 2918.0. Stop Loss 2879.0. Objectives 2936.0



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  #416  
Old 24-04-2019, 12:50
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USD/CAD: Market Expectations
24/04/2019

On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to strengthen after last week's strong data on US retail sales and after the publication of weak Australian inflation figures on Wednesday, which caused a sharp drop in AUD.
On Wednesday, the decision on rates is made by the Bank of Canada. It will be published at 14:00 (GMT). It is expected that the rate of the Bank of Canada will remain at the same level of 1.5%.
In March, the Bank of Canada did not change its monetary policy. Earlier this month, the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz again touched upon the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, recalling that "in March, following the next meeting of the Bank of Canada, we stated that the economic outlook still requires maintaining interest rates below the neutral range".
The April report of Statistics Canada pointed to a slowdown in the Canadian economy in 4Q. Canada's GDP declined in December by -0.1% and grew in the 4th quarter by only 0.4% (the forecast was +1.2% and +2.0% in the 3rd quarter).
In their accompanying statement and report on changes in monetary policy, representatives of the Bank of Canada will explain the position of the bank and assess the current economic situation in the country. The hard tone of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada regarding rising inflation and the prospects for further monetary tightening will cause a strengthening of the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada signals to extend the period for maintaining a soft monetary policy or the possibility of a rate cut, the Canadian currency will decline.
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USD / CAD increased during the Asian session. In case of a successful breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700) USD / CAD will go towards the resistance levels 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs of the year).
Sales can be renewed after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 1.3376 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3352 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets at the support levels of 1.3272, 1.3220. So far, long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3352, 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220
Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3350. Stop Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3220
Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



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  #417  
Old 25-04-2019, 11:48
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
04/25/2019

While disappointing macro data continue to come from Europe and from other countries with the largest global economy, indicating slower economic growth and inflation, more and more investors prefer the dollar.
On Wednesday, the IFO published another block of macro data for Germany, according to which the German business sentiment index IFO in April was 99.2 against 99.6 in March and the forecast of 99.9.
“The German economy continues to lose momentum", says IFO President Clemens Fust.
The slowdown of the German economy, in turn, raises concerns about the weak growth of the entire economy of the Eurozone, and the European Central Bank may be required to further mitigate monetary policy.
On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair reached another multi-month low near the 1.1140 mark, and on Thursday its decline continues. At the beginning of the European session, the Eurodollar trades near the 1.1130 mark.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is growing, and futures for the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session, near the 97.96 mark, 90 points higher than the opening price of the current week.

If the US GDP index for Q1, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT, coincides with the forecast (+ 2.1%) or turns out to be better than it, then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall in EUR / USD will continue. Otherwise, we can expect a rebound of EUR / USD and the beginning of an upward correction with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1270 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23, 6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
Further growth of EUR / USD is unlikely. Most likely, further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1100, 1.1000.
Support Levels: 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1210, 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1370, 1.1425

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1120, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1210. Stop Loss 1.1170. Take-Profit 1.1230, 1.1270, 1.1285



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  #418  
Old 26-04-2019, 10:37
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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
04/26/2019

As reported at the start of the Sydney trading session on Friday (22: 445 GMT) by the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand, New Zealand’s foreign trade surplus in March was 922 million New Zealand dollars against a deficit of -68 New Zealand dollars in February (the forecast was 131 million New Zealand dollars). New Zealand exports rose by NZ $ 99 million, while imports declined by NZ $ 1 million.
The publication of positive statistics on foreign trade led to the growth of the New Zealand dollar, which also strengthened against the USD.
However, the focus of traders on Friday is the publication of data on US GDP (at 12:30 GMT). It is expected that GDP grew in Q1 by 2.1% (against a growth of + 2.2% in the previous quarter).
GDP data can support the dollar and lower expectations for the Fed to cut rates in December 2019. But the dollar may fall sharply if GDP data turns out to be much weaker than the forecast. The likelihood of such a scenario cannot be excluded, since usually growth in the 1st quarter is the weakest for the year.
In this case, profit will begin to be fixed in long positions for USD, which will cause its decline at the end of the trading week.

NZD / USD is growing for the second day in a row, developing an upward correction after a significant decline this month. A break of the nearest short-term strong resistance level of 0.6666 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further rise to the resistance level of 0.6745 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and to the balance zone near the key level of 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) with the prospect of further growth to resistance levels 0.6865 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014; the lows of the wave are near the level of 0.6260), 0.6935, 0.6980 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7060 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
An alternative scenario implies a breakdown of the local support level of 0.6575 and a decline to the support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.
Support levels: 0.6630, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060



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  #419  
Old 29-04-2019, 12:07
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WTI: Current Dynamics
04/29/2019

On Monday, oil prices are rising again after a strong fall the day before. Investors were frightened by Donald Trump’s statement on Friday that he once again offered OPEC to lower oil prices. “Gasoline prices are falling. I called OPEC and said that we need to lower them (oil prices). You (OPEC) need to lower them”, Trump said.
Earlier, President Trump repeatedly appealed to OPEC (on his Twitter account) to increase production and thereby help lower prices. And every time the oil market reacted to this by falling quotes. Also happened this time.
However, Saudi Arabia refused to give an obligation to increase production, and OPEC reported that Trump no longer turned to this organization with new calls with an increase in oil supplies.
According to Baker Hughes’s Friday data, the number of drilling rigs in the United States last week fell by 20 and reached an annual minimum of 805. These data, indicating slowing production in the United States, along with risks of disruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Venezuela, should also support oil quotes.
On Wednesday, May 1 (14:30 GMT) the next weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will be published. Stocks are expected to increase by 2.093 million barrels. This is negative information for oil prices. If the forecast is not confirmed, then the price of oil expects another wave of growth.
Since November, Iranian oil exports have declined from 2.3 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day in March. The new US approach to solving the problem of reducing the export of Iranian oil (last Monday, the White House announced that the US will not extend temporary permits to import Iranian oil, which expires on May 2) could trigger a new reduction in Iranian oil exports, from 1 million barrels per day up to 500,000 barrels per day.

On Friday, the price dropped sharply, breaking through the strong support level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). Earlier, the price of WTI crude oil reached $66.50 per barrel, a new multi-month high.
The price maintains a positive trend, being above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). From a strong short-term support level of 61.95 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) a rebound and renewed growth is possible.
Only a breakdown of support levels of 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.
Above the support level of 61.95 long positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 61.95, 59.50, 56.75, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 61.60. Stop Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 59.50, 56.75, 55.40
Buy Stop 63.60. Stop Loss 61.80. Take-Profit 64.40, 66.50, 68.00


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  #420  
Old 30-04-2019, 12:24
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USD/CAD: Before Important Events
30/04/2019

According to data published at the beginning of today's Asian session, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector in China fell to 54.3 in April from 54.8 in March. The index for the non-production sphere reflects the dynamics of activity in such areas as retail, air travel, software development, real estate market and construction. The decline was due to a weakening of demand and activity in construction.
The official PMI for the manufacturing sector in China also fell in April, to 50.1 from 50.5 in March. The decline in the index was due to the weakening of production and domestic demand.
According to Caixin, PMI for China's manufacturing sector in April was 50.2 against 50.8 in March. Unlike the official index, which reflects the dynamics of activity of large state-owned companies, PMI Caixin pays more attention to the status of private producers.
The data presented caused a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, primarily against the RMB and commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
In the course of the European session, the dollar is falling again. Investors are switching their attention to future important events. On Wednesday (18:00 GMT) the decision of the Fed on the interest rate will be published, and on Friday (12:30 GMT) - data from the US labor market.
Some economists expect the Fed to cut rates in December due to lower US inflation rates. Comments by Fed officials and labor market data will provide insight into the current state of the US economy and give the dollar a new impulse, either for growth or for decline.

Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3280 (EMA144), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of local resistance levels of 1.3480, 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.3660 (highs of 2018), 1.3790 (highs of 2017).
Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230
Resistance Levels: 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3425. Stop-Loss 1.3490. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230
Buy Stop 1.3490. Stop Loss 1.3425. Take-Profit 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



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  #421  
Old 03-05-2019, 09:51
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
Eurodollar continues to decline. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, EUR / USD is trading at 1.3020. Pending publication (12:30 GMT) of a report from the US labor market, trading volumes are declining. If the report (average hourly wage, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the unemployment rate) will be better than the forecast (+ 0.3% (against + 0.1% in March) / 180,000 (against 196,000 in March ) / 3.8% (against 3.8% in March)), then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR / USD will continue.
The alternative scenario implies a rebound and the beginning of an upward correction of EUR / USD with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1210, 1.1244 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). A more distant goal of the correction is resistance levels of 1.1255 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 started in May 2014), 1.1360 (ЕМА144), 1.1410 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Below resistance level 1.1285 short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.1210, 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1155. Take-Profit 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410


[img]https https://i.postimg.cc/t41Ggr0k/030519-EU-H4.png[/img]
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  #422  
Old 06-05-2019, 11:07
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XAU/USD: current dynamics
06/05/2019

US President Donald Trump once again shocked the markets with his statement. On Sunday, he tweeted: “For 10 months, China paid the US $ 50 billion in high-tech products at a rate of 25% and 10% in other products worth $ 200 billion. These payments partially explain our huge economic success. These 10% will increase to 25% on Friday". He also wrote about the imminent imposition of duties in the amount of 25% on imports of goods that were not subject to duties from China in the amount of $ 325 billion.
Chinese yuan and Chinese stock indexes collapsed at the opening of the trading day on Monday.
Quotes of gold again crawled up. The pair XAU / USD at the beginning of the European session was trading near the mark of 1282.00, above the key support level of 1275.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Above the key support levels of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the support level of 1268.00 and
decrease of XAU / USD in the direction of the important support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%). Breakdown of this level will return XAU / USD to the global bearish trend with targets at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1279.00, 1277.00, 1275.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1288.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1274.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1274.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



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  #423  
Old 07-05-2019, 13:13
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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/07/2019

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump unpleasantly surprised investors with two Twitter messages that by Friday duties on Chinese goods would be increased. Trump's statements provoked a sharp drop in many global markets.
US Trade Representative Robert Lightheiser stated that in recent days "China has retreated from its promises". According to Lightheiser, duties on Chinese goods will be increased on Friday, as Trump warned.
The economy of New Zealand is closely connected with the economy of China, which is the largest buyer of raw materials and food (primarily meat and dairy) goods from New Zealand. Therefore, any negative information from China also negatively affects the NZD quotes.
On Tuesday, NZD / USD declines again after falling the previous day. The next meeting of the RBNZ will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate of the RBNZ will be published on Wednesday at 02:00 (GMT). Probably, the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 1.5%.
Currently, NZD / USD is again attempting to break the local support level of 0.6600. Its breakthrough may trigger a further decline to support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.
So far, short positions look preferable.
Support levels: 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060



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  #424  
Old 08-05-2019, 12:20
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S&P500: Current Situation
05/08/2019

In April, the S&P500 updated the annual and absolute maximum near the 2959.0 mark. On Wednesday, the decline in the S&P500 continues despite the fact that, overall, the positive trend continues.
While the S&P500 index is trading above the key support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive trend remains. Long positions are preferred above this level.
Nevertheless, negative information, first of all, the negative course of negotiations between US and Chinese trade representatives, as well as negative economic news from the US, will cause a decrease in indices, and, as the worst-case scenario, will provoke another wave of decline.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.
On Wednesday, the publication of important macro data is not planned, and Europe celebrates Victory Day. The decline in world and US indices may continue, while representatives of China and the United States will seek a solution to the situation.
Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2885.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 2858.0. Stop Loss 2902.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2902.0. Stop Loss 2858.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

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  #425  
Old 10-05-2019, 10:17
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AUD/USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.
05/10/2019

On Friday, the United States raised duties on imports of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, as previously promised by US President Donald Trump. He also said on Thursday that the US will introduce new duties in the amount of 25% on the import of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 325 billion. Thus, all goods imported from China to the United States will be subject to duties of 25%.
The foreign exchange market, on the whole, on Friday rather restrainedly reacted to this news, since it was already mainly taken into account in prices.
Meanwhile, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and the country's finance minister Stephen Mnuchin met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and agreed to continue the discussion on Friday. This allows us to preserve hope for further progress in the negotiations and the fact that both parties will come to a solution to the conflict.
From the news today, investors will also pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. It is expected that the consumer price index rose in April by + 0.4% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will strengthen, including with respect to AUD. With the escalation of international trade wars, the American dollar is in demand and looks more preferable than AUD.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.7000 mark.
Below resistance levels 0.7011 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7065 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions are preferable.
Breakdown of the local support level of 0.6980 will increase the risks of further decline towards support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Support Levels: 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.7011, 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190

Trading Recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7020. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7020. Stop Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190
[img]httpshttps://i.postimg.cc/RCY0wsbb/100519-DXY.png[/img]



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  #426  
Old 13-05-2019, 10:16
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S&P500: Current Dynamics
05/13/2019

Despite negotiations, on Friday the White House raised customs duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%. Moreover, the USA threatened to introduce additional duties for another 325 billion dollars, i.e. on all Chinese imports. Beijing said it would retaliate.
The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China led to increased fluctuations in world markets. Last week, the US S & P 500 index suffered the most severe losses since the beginning of the year.
Many economists have warned that new duties and barrage trade barriers threaten the United States with a slowdown in economic growth.
On Monday, the major US stock indices are falling, and futures for the S & P500 index at the beginning of the European session is trading near the mark of 2848.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.
In case of fixation below the support level of 2860.0, the S & P500 will go to support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). While the S & P500 index is trading above this key support level, long-term positive dynamics remain.
Nevertheless, purchases can be resumed after the S & P500 consolidates in the zone above the short-term resistance levels of 2883.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2890.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour, 1-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.
Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2840.0. Stop Loss 2870.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2870.0. Stop Loss 2840.0. Objectives 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



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  #427  
Old 14-05-2019, 09:59
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AUD/USD: trade conflict between the US and China threatens the global economy
05/14/2019

Last Monday, China announced its intention to raise duties on US imports of about $ 60 billion in response to US actions on Chinese imports. This raised investors' concerns that the US-China trade standoff would lead to a further slowdown in the global economy.
According to economists, because of the trade war, China’s GDP growth in 2019 could be less than 6%, and the US dollar / Chinese yuan pair could rise to 7.2000.
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, said on Monday that the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China increases the risk of negative developments in the economy.
Financial markets reacted to these events with a fall in stock indices, a rise in the price of the Japanese yen, government bonds and gold, as well as a fall in commodity prices and commodity currencies. First of all, it refers to the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trading and economic partner and a buyer of its commodities, such as liquefied gas, coal, iron ore, and gold.
External and internal macroeconomic background contributes to increasing pressure on the RBA in the direction of lowering the interest rate, and on the Australian dollar - in the direction of its further reduction.
In this situation, the AUD / USD pair is likely to continue to decline, even regardless of the Fed's actions. With the escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar still looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy in this situation.
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Trading Scenarios
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The last wave of decline began in January 2018 from the level of 0.8120. AUD / USD remains under pressure below key resistance levels of 0.7140 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.7185 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, the breakdown of the resistance levels of 0.6995 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7055 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) may provoke a continuation of the upward correction to the resistance level of 0.7140. At the moment and below the resistance levels of 0.7140, 0.7185, short positions with targets at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows) are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6910, 0.6830
Resistance Levels: 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6965. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.6965. Stop Loss 0.6935. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185



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  #428  
Old 15-05-2019, 10:40
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WTI: the price has reached the zone of important support levels
05/15/2019

Participants in the oil market are concerned about the escalation of trade confrontation between China and the United States and the slowdown in global economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. These are negative fundamental factors for oil prices. At 14:30 (GMT), the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will publish its regular weekly report, according to which, reserves are expected to grow by 2.984 million barrels. If the forecast is confirmed, oil prices may resume their decline.
At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, WTI crude oil is trading near the 61.10 mark, through which there is a strong support level (ЕМА50 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of this level, the price will fall to support levels of 59.90 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Above these levels, a long-term upward trend is maintained.
If China and the United States nevertheless succeed in reaching an agreement, while negotiations between the representatives of the two countries continue, it is likely that oil prices will rise again.
The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 61.85 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts). In this case, the price will go to the recent highs near the 66.50 mark and further, to the 70.00 mark, through which the upper line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 59.50 and a decrease to the support level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Breakdown of support levels 57.00, 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.
Support Levels: 61.10, 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 60.60. Stop Loss 62.10. Take-Profit 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40
Buy Stop 62.10. Stop Loss 60.60. Take-Profit 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00


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  #429  
Old 16-05-2019, 11:36
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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
05/16/2019

The pound continues to fall. The situation around Brexit has remained the main driver of the pound since mid-2016, when a Brexit referendum was held. At this time, the pound falls on information from the fact that the Prime Minister may lose his post, and his place will be taken by a supporter of tough Brexit.
Theresa May was unable to advance in negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to support the Brexit agreement. And even among the members of her Conservative Party, there are more and more of her opponents.
Having broken through the key support levels of 1.3045 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3020 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), on Thursday the GBP / USD pair has been falling for 9 days in a row and is trading on Thursday at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.2830 mark.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.
A further weakening of the pound will lead to a decline in GBP / USD to support levels of 1.2700 (lows of October and August 2018), 1.2600.
Purchases will be possible only after GBP / USD returns to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2960 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3045, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave, started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3370 (March and year highs), 1.3610 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
So far, short positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Resistance Levels: 1.2870, 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600
Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210


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  #430  
Old 17-05-2019, 11:13
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AUD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/17/2019

The US dollar rose on Thursday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose by 32 points on Thursday, to 97.68. Published US economic data exceeded expectations, which increased investor risk appetite.
According to data released on Thursday, the number of new homes in the United States has increased by 5.7% in April compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million units; the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 212,000 (compared with the forecast of 220,000 and 228,000 in the previous weekly period).
On Friday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The index is an indicator of consumer confidence in economic growth. High result strengthens USD, low - weakens
The index is expected to rise to 97.5 in May against 97.2 in April. Probably, the US dollar will receive an additional impetus to growth, if the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast. The data below the forecast will have a downward pressure on the dollar, but only in the short term.
Under conditions of uncertainty and escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
On Friday, the USD growth continues, while the DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 97.73 mark.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is falling after data came out on Thursday indicating that unemployment was rising in Australia to 5.2%. The revised data also indicated that unemployment in March was 5.1% versus a previous estimate of 5.0%.
Rising unemployment increases the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBA Governor will deliver a speech in Brisbane. It is possible that he will signal the imminent reduction in rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates at 40% and 100% in August.
In the current situation, the most likely scenario is a further decrease in AUD / USD with the closest target at 0.6830 (2016 lows).
Below the key resistance levels of 0.7130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable. A strong negative impulse prevails.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170
[img]httpshttps://i.postimg.cc/RCY0wsbb/100519-DXY.png[/img]


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  #431  
Old 20-05-2019, 11:29
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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/20/2019

At the beginning of the European session, the XAU / USD pair attempts to break through the strong and key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
In case of a successful breakdown of this level, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%), 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows), which will mean the return of gold prices in a bearish trend.
An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1287.00, above which the upward trend will resume. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).
On Monday, market participants will closely monitor the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will begin at 23:00 (GMT). If he signals about the likelihood of a soon decrease in the interest rate, then the dollar may sharply decline, and the price of gold will rise.
Some Fed leaders are concerned about weak inflation. According to them, it is possible that the central bank will have to take measures to speed up inflation, and that they will be ready to lower interest rates. Although Jerome Powell believes that low inflation in the United States is a “temporary phenomenon”.
In the current situation, market participants prefer the dollar. The American economy as a whole is in a better condition than the economies of other countries amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.
Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



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  #432  
Old 21-05-2019, 11:32
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AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios
05/21/2019

Rising unemployment and low inflation increase the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. "During the meeting on June 4, interest rate cuts will be discussed", RBA manager Philip Lowe said on Tuesday. According to him, "new stimulating measures could help accelerate economic growth".
In the minutes from the May meeting of the RBA published today, it is stated that "the lack of improvement in the labor market situation is an argument in favor of lowering interest rates". “Without easing monetary policy in the next six months, we should expect lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation”, the RBA leaders concluded.
International trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China, also pose a risk to the Australian economy. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates in more than 50% and 100% in August.
Against this negative background, the decline in AUD / USD continues. Below the key resistance levels of 0.7120 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.
AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The lows of the global wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500, are located near the mark of 0.6830. AUD / USD may reach this level in the coming days.
The objectives of the upward correction are located at the resistance levels of 0.7015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100, 0.7120.
However, for now, only short positions should be considered.
Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800
Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800
Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120



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  #433  
Old 22-05-2019, 12:04
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USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes
05/22/2019
Current Dynamics

Speaking on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the growth of US company debt. However, he did not say anything about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, but noted that “GDP growth rates are stable, US employment rates are quite high, while wages are rising against the backdrop of restrained inflation”.
Inflation remains the focus of Fed officials.
The central bank set a target inflation rate of 2% in 2012, and never once ensured its sustainability. Moreover, this year inflation has weakened, even against the background of strengthening economy and employment growth. The inflationary expectations of market participants and the population have also weakened, and this increases the likelihood that real inflation will not grow as the Fed leaders want.
Most of them believe that this year the rates will not be changed, and those who thought they would be raised refused this opinion. Financial markets are expecting lower rates by the end of this year.
On Wednesday, market participants will carefully study the minutes from the May Fed meeting in order to understand the intentions of the central bank management regarding monetary policy. The publication of the Fed's minutes is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT). Volatility at this time may sharply increase in the financial markets if the protocols contain unexpected statements by the Fed leaders. The harsh rhetoric of their statements regarding monetary policy will cause a strengthening of the USD. Conversely, a penchant for soft politics will cause a weakening of the American dollar.
Lowering the interest rate of the Fed is a strong fundamental factor that will have a negative impact on the USD quotes.
Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue in the context of the escalating US trade conflict with China and amid a slowdown in the European economy, as well as expectations of the results of parliamentary elections (May 23-26) in Europe. At the same time, the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand directly declare monetary policy easing.
The dollar in the current situation looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.
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Technical Analysis
The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.
After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.
At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.
Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.
After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265
Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



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  #434  
Old 23-05-2019, 10:35
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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/23/2019

NZD / USD is developing a downward dynamic, actively declining over the past two months. In May, the NZD / USD pair received an additional negative impulse after the RBNZ meeting and after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the May Fed meeting.
As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RBNZ reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. In a related statement, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr pointed out that "there is uncertainty about the prospects for the global economy and concerns about trade remain". According to him, “inflationary pressure will grow only slowly”. The forecast for the rate of RBNZ also lowered to 1.4%. Many economists believe that another reduction in the rate of the RBNZ may occur already this year.
At the same time, the Fed leaders are still refraining from changes in monetary policy. This became clear from the minutes from the May Fed meeting, published on Wednesday. "Many participants in the meeting made it clear that their fears from the beginning of the year, to some extent, weakened", the protocols said.
Thus, amid the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBNZ, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, a further reduction in NZD / USD with the immediate goal located at the support level of 0.6830 is likely. The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and the lows of the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014).
The signal for the development of an alternative scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6636 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which may cause an increase to the resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Further growth is unlikely. Predominantly strong negative impulse. Below the key resistance level of 0.6755 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230
Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060


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  #435  
Old 24-05-2019, 11:01
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WTI Oil: Current Dynamics
24/05/2019

On Friday, the price of oil is rising, adjusting after falling the previous day. The aggravation of the trade conflict between China and the United States, as well as the growth of oil reserves in the United States provoked a sharp drop in oil prices.
Futures for WTI oil on the NYMEX closed on Thursday with a decrease of 5.7%, at $ 57.91 per barrel, the lowest level since March 12. It was the sharpest drop since December 24th.
The United States has added the Chinese corporation Huawei to a “black list”, imposing significant trade restrictions on the company.
At the same time, on Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy presented regular weekly data on oil reserves, which rose last week by 4.7 million barrels to 477 million barrels, the highest since July 2017. Also increased reserves of gasoline and distillates.
WTI crude oil traded at the beginning of the European session at 58.42, by $ 0.35 above the opening price of today.
At 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will publish its weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. If the report indicates an increase in the number of such installations (currently it is 802 units), this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.
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The price of WTI crude oil is trading on Friday below key support levels of 59.90 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the mark of 76.80 to the level of support near 42.14), slightly higher support level 56.85 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Growth in the zone above the levels of 56.85, 59.50, 59.90 will cause the resumption of the bullish trend.
The breakdown of the support level of 56.85 will open the way to the support level of 55.40 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Breakdown of this support level will revive the bearish trend.
Support Levels: 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Resistance Levels: 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 57.80. Stop Loss 58.80. Take-Profit 57.00, 56.85, 55.40
Buy Stop 58.80. Stop Loss 57.80. Take-Profit 59.50, 59.90, 61.10, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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  #436  
Old 27-05-2019, 11:12
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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
05/27/2019

The minutes of the ECB meeting held on April 9-10, published last Thursday, reminded market participants about the problems in the European economy. "Inflation remains well below the target level, and inflationary expectations of the market have weakened, while the predicted convergence of real and expected inflation is constantly postponed to a later date", the meeting minutes say.
The ECB leaders believe that the weakness of the Eurozone economy may persist longer than expected. They "stressed their determination to remain ready to change monetary policy instruments, if appropriate".
Last week, the EUR / USD rose due to the weakening dollar. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 major currencies, lost over the past week 0.38% (or 37 points), falling to 97.47.
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However, the EUR / USD global downtrend remains in place. The EUR / USD pair continues to decline amid adverse European macro statistics. As soon as the dollar starts to grow again, the EUR / USD pair will decrease.
For more serious growth, the euro and the EUR / USD pair lack fundamental drivers.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1320 (EMA144), 1.1380 (EMA200 on the daily chart) long-term negative dynamics prevail. A further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely. The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1180 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).
On Monday, trading volumes are insignificant due to weekends in the UK (Spring Bank holiday) and in the USA (Memorial Day). Exchanges and banks in these countries are closed. The activity of traders will recover in the financial markets on Tuesday, and at the beginning of the European session a whole block of macro data for the Eurozone will be published, among which are indicators of consumer and business sentiment for May. A deterioration of the indicators is expected, causing a weakening of the euro and a fall in EUR / USD.
Support Levels: 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1210, 1.1225, 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1175. Stop Loss 1.1230. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1230. Stop Loss 1.1175. Take-Profit 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1380


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  #437  
Old 28-05-2019, 11:34
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S&P500: Current Dynamics
05/28/2019

World stock indices went down again after weak growth during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Investors are returning to the market after a long weekend and assess the events that have taken place, including the elections to the European Parliament and the trip of US President Donald Trump to Japan. Trump said that despite the recent conflict with Iran, he will not try to dislodge the government of this country.
He also said that, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely increased". Thus, the US-China trade conflict threatens with a new aggravation, which can negatively affect both the Chinese and the American economies.
Meanwhile, the yield of US government bonds falls again. Thus, at the beginning of the European session, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.278%, the lowest since February 2018. This indicates a growing uncertainty among investors and their avoidance of risks and purchases of high-yielding and risky assets.
At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, futures for the S&P500 index traded near the mark of 2825.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.
We are waiting for the publication of the consumer confidence index for May on Tuesday (14:00 GMT). The index is expected to grow (130.1 vs. 129.2 in April), which will support the dollar and US stock indices. If the data is weaker than the previous values, it will put additional pressure on US stock indices.
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Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S&P500 persists. The index is trading above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth from December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), 2798.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of purchases with the long-term goal near the annual and absolute maximum of 2959.0.
Break of the key support level of 2781.0 will revive the bearish trend. For now, this is an unlikely scenario.
Support Levels: 2810.0, 2798.0, 2781.0, 2720.0
Resistance Levels: 2845.0, 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2805.0. Stop Loss 2850.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2780.0, 2720.0
Buy Stop 2850.0. Stop Loss 2805.0. Objectives 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



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  #438  
Old 29-05-2019, 11:57
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XAU/USD: Current Dynamics
05/29/2019

US President Donald Trump said last Monday that he was “not yet ready” to conclude a trade agreement with China. In his opinion, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely substantially raised".
Trump's statement heightened investors' concerns about the growth prospects of the global economy, since a possible escalation of the trade conflict and the introduction of duties on goods from these countries would cause damage to both the American and Chinese economies, according to economists.
In this situation, the demand for defensive assets (gold, government bonds, yen) has grown significantly in recent days.
Thus, the growth in demand for US government bonds led to a significant drop in their profitability.
The yield on 10-year US government bonds fell last week to 2.292%. On Wednesday, their yield fell to 2,229%, the lowest since February 2018.
It is possible that the Fed will still start lowering interest rates in order to support American manufacturers. And this will lead to a decrease in the dollar and the growth of gold prices.
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For the 6th week in a row, the XAU / USD has been trading in a narrow range near current levels and a key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
Increased uncertainty in financial markets and the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China may lead to a resumption of the bullish XAU / USD trend.
The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1286.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of upward dynamics and growth of XAU / USD with targets located at resistance levels of 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (maximums of February and 2019). This is the most likely scenario.
An alternative scenario implies the breakdown of the key support level of 1277.00, the lower line of the 1268.00 range, and a further decline to the lower boundary of the downward channel on the daily chart and to the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%), which will create prerequisites for XAU / USD to return to the global bearish trend with the reduction targets at the support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00
Resistance Levels: 1286.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1275.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1275.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



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  #439  
Old 30-05-2019, 12:03
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USD/CAD: Current Dynamics and Market Expectations
05/30/2019

As expected by many market participants, at the last Wednesday meeting, the Bank of Canada kept the current monetary policy and key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
"The recent escalation of the trade conflict has increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects", the central bank said. At the same time, the leaders of the bank believe that the slowdown in economic growth in Canada is temporary, expecting an improvement in economic activity in the country and referring to the “acceleration in the 2nd quarter”.
The recent decision of the White House to remove duties on Canadian steel and aluminum "will have a positive impact on Canadian exports and investment", because it increased the likelihood of ratifying the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
On Friday (12:30 GMT), an increase in volatility in the USD / CAD trades is expected due to the publication of important macro statistics for the US and Canada. It is expected that Canadian GDP grew by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter after weak growth in the first three months of the year. Some economists believe that growth in the 2nd quarter could exceed the central bank estimate and be 2% or higher.
At the same time, the April data on consumer spending in the United States, which will also be released at the same time, may adversely affect investors' expectations regarding the US economy if the data are weak after weak data on industrial production and retail sales in the United States, published earlier.
If weak macro data starts to come in from the USA, then the probability of a decrease in the Fed's interest rate will increase. Investors already estimate the likelihood of a rate cut in 2019 at 83% versus 64% a month ago.
It is also necessary to take into account that on the last trading day of the week and month many market participants will want to take profits in long positions in the US dollar, which will cause its decline.
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Thus, next month, a corrective decline in the USD / CAD pair may start with targets at the support levels of 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair growth in the global uptrend from September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3435 (ЕМА200 on the 4 -hourly chart), 1.3420 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
The breakdown of the level 1.3420 will provoke a deeper decline to the support levels of 1.3325 (ЕМА144), 1.3275 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the key levels 1.3325, 1.3275, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend.
A return to the zone above the local resistance level of 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3465, 1.3452, 1.3435, 1.3420, 1.3325, 1.3275
Resistance Levels: 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3480. Stop Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3465, 1.3452, 1.3435, 1.3420, 1.3325, 1.3275
Buy Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


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  #440  
Old 31-05-2019, 12:59
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WTI: pessimism grows - oil becomes cheaper
05/31/2019

The financial markets are dominated by pessimism of investors who prefer defensive assets, such as the yen, gold, and government bonds.
Thus, the yield on 10-year US government bonds after a decline last week to a multi-month low of 2.292%, today updated the minimum, dropping to 2.154%, marks in September 2017.
After the White House increased import duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion last month, and US President Donald Trump threatened to expand barrage measures, in response, China imposed duties on US goods in $60 billion.
Last Monday, Donald Trump said that he was “not yet ready” to conclude a trade agreement with China.
New threats from the White House, now to the address of Mexico, have added another batch of negative to investors. On Friday, Trump threatened to impose duties on 5% for goods from Mexico on June 10. The threat will be enforced if the Mexican authorities do not take measures to prevent illegal immigration to the United States. Taxes on Mexican goods will be raised to 10% from July 1, to 15% from August 1, to 20% from September 1 to 25% from October 1, and will continue until Mexico’s authorities take effective measures to combat illegal immigration in USA.
In June, the attention of traders will switch to the scheduled OPEC meeting at the end of the month. Representatives of OPEC member countries, including Russia, have to decide whether to extend the agreement to reduce total oil production by the end of 2019. A slowdown in the global economy and a downward trend in oil prices may force the organization to continue to implement production reduction agreements in order to support prices.
In anticipation of this event, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure.
At 17:00 (GMT), the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes will present a weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States to 797 units.
Oil reserves in the United States remain at about 476.50 million barrels (22-month high), which is 5% higher than the average 5-year value for this time of year. If the Baker Hughes report indicates an increase in the number of such installations, this may give an additional negative impetus to prices.
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Mostly negative dynamics. At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is quoted at $ 55.16 per barrel, below the important levels of 59.90 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 59.50 (50% Fibonacci level). Last Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil broke through another major and key support level of 56.85 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
If next week the price remains in the zone below support level 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to support level near 42.15), then long-term short positions with targets at support levels 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 42.15 (Fibonacci level 0% and minimums of December 2018) will be relevant.
Only the return of prices to the zone above the level of 59.90 will resume the bull trend.
Support Levels: 55.40, 50.30, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.85, 59.00, 59.50, 59.90, 60.90

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 54.50. Stop Loss 56.90. Take-Profit 50.30, 43.00
Buy Stop 57.10. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 59.00, 59.50, 59.90, 60.90, 61.50, 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50


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