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  #361  
Old 04-02-2019, 11:56
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AUD/USD: RBA will keep current interest rate. Trading scenarios
04/02/2019

The US dollar is trading higher on Monday, and the DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the European session is at 95.46, 12 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
As reported last Friday by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by 304,000 in January, while the average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 3.2% from the previous year. The forecast was +170,000 jobs. Despite the fact that unemployment rose to 4% from 3.9%, it still remains at its lowest level in the last 10 years. Investors considered the report to be generally positive, which gave the US dollar an impetus for further growth.
At the same time, the AUD / USD is falling from the opening of the trading day on Monday and at the beginning of the European trading session, trading near the 0.7230 mark.
On Tuesday, the attention of traders will be directed to the publication at 03:30 (GMT) of the decision on the RBA interest rate. It is expected that the central bank of Australia will leave its key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 1.5%. Market participants will closely monitor the rhetoric of the RBA's accompanying statement.
The fall in housing prices, the slowdown in consumer spending, weak wage growth, the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the uncertain prospects for the global economy have become factors in the slowdown in GDP growth in 2019.
Any concerns of the RBA leadership regarding the growth of the country's economy can be considered by investors as a signal to resume sales of the Australian dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Meanwhile, AUD / USD is declining, attempting to consolidate below the support level of 0.7245 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7204 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7172 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) AUD / USD will move towards the support levels of 0.7085, 0.7025 with the prospect of further decline with long-term goals at the levels support 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
An alternative scenario assumes the resumption of upward correction. In case of a breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.7295 AUD / USD, it will go to resistance levels of 0.7385, 0.7460 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair from July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
Further growth is unlikely due to a number of fundamental factors.
Support Levels: 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7305. Stop Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7385, 0.7460




*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #362  
Old 05-02-2019, 11:20
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GBP/USD: Dollar lacks positive momentum
05/02/2019

After, on Tuesday morning, the RB of Australia expectedly kept the interest rate unchanged, the volatility of trading on the foreign exchange market at the beginning of the European session decreased significantly. Major dollar currency pairs, with the exception of AUD / USD, are traded on Tuesday in a narrow range. The US dollar and the market as a whole do not have enough drivers for further movement.
Probably, such a driver will be the publication in the first half of the US trading session (15:00 GMT) of the report of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on activity in the non-manufacturing sector of the United States. Economists expect the non-production composite index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in January to fall to 57.1 from 58.0 in December. Although an index value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, a relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar.
Market participants will also closely monitor the performance of the US President Donald Trump in Congress later on Tuesday with an annual message on the state of the country. Any signals from Trump about a positive change in the sides' positions in the negotiations between the US and China will support the dollar, which needs a strong positive impetus for further growth after the Fed meeting last week. As you know, on Wednesday the Fed kept its current monetary policy unchanged and signaled its intentions to be more restrained in regard to further rate increases. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that "there was a little less reason to raise rates".
According to the central bank executives, the current level of inflationary pressure does not force the Fed to take any action.
Many investors do not expect further increases in the Federal Reserve rates this year. Moreover, futures on the Fed rates on Monday indicated an 11% chance of lowering the Fed rates by the end of the year. Last week, this probability was 21%, according to the CME Group.
The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 currencies, is moderately rising from the opening of the trading day on Tuesday. At the beginning of the European session, futures for the DXY dollar index traded near the 95.68 mark, 10 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

GBP / USD has fallen on Tuesday for 4 days in a row. Weak macro data, unresolved situation with the UK exit from the EU, as well as worsening situation in the world, volatility in financial markets and restraint of the Federal Reserve System can force the Bank of England to take a softer stance with regard to its monetary policy. Any hints of the bank towards a softer policy will cause a sharp decline in the pound.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts switched to the short positions.
After GBP / USD is fixed in the zone below the support level of 1.2920 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions will again become relevant.
The main trend is still bearish. The objectives of the decline are support levels of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), 1.2485, 1.2365.
Support Levels: 1.2975, 1.2920, 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3065, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3690

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3070. Take-Profit 1.2975, 1.2920, 1.2860, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.3070. Stop Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3690



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #363  
Old 06-02-2019, 12:01
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AUD/USD: Trading recommendations
06/02/2019

On Wednesday, AUD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7210 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7172 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) and continues to decline towards support levels of 0.7085, 0.7025.
On Friday (00:30 GMT), the RBA will comment on the prospects for its monetary policy. There will also be given forecasts regarding the further growth of the Australian economy, labor market, inflation. If forecasts turn out to be negative, then the Australian dollar and AUD / USD will continue to decline.
Long-term reduction targets are at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
Negative dynamics prevails; below the resistance level 0.7172 short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7172, 0.7210, 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7215. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #364  
Old 07-02-2019, 12:43
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NZD/USD: external negative background may intensify
07/02/2019

Randal Quarles, deputy chairman of the US Federal Reserve System for Supervision of the Banking Sector, said Wednesday that he was worried about the negative impact of events taking place abroad. “Global risks are probably the most significant”, said Quarles, pointing in particular to the slowdown in China’s GDP growth. Chinese imports occupy the lion’s share of New Zealand exports.
The slowdown of the world and Chinese economies have the most negative impact on commodity prices, as well as on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.
On Thursday, the NZD declines after the publication on the eve of the weaker-than-expected data from the New Zealand labor market. According to the Statistics Bureau of New Zealand, unemployment in the country increased in the 4th quarter of 2018 (4.3% versus 4.0% in the 3rd quarter and 4.1%, as expected, according to the forecast).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

At the beginning of the US trading session, NZD / USD is trading below key levels of 0.6805 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.6775 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), near 0.6745, through which the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the 4-hour chart. In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6745, NZD / USD will go to the nearest local support level of 0.6710, a breakdown of which will mean the return of NZD / USD to a bearish trend.
Only after NZD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6805, will it be possible to return to NZD / USD purchases again.
Probably, before the RBNZ meeting on monetary policy, which will take place on February 12, the New Zealand dollar will remain under pressure, given the overall negative external macroeconomic background. If the RBNZ signals a propensity to reduce the rate, the New Zealand dollar may decline significantly.
If the Fed again announces the possibility of a rate hike this year, the negative fundamental background for the New Zealand dollar in its dynamics against the US dollar will increase significantly.
Resistance Levels: 0.6745, 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Support Levels: 0.6775, 0.6805, 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7080

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6735. Stop Loss 0.6785. Take-Profit 0.6710, 0.6655, 0.6515, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6785. Stop Loss 0.6735. Take-Profit 0.6805, 0.6860, 0.6970, 0.7080


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  #365  
Old 08-02-2019, 12:09
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USD/CAD: the dollar is rising amid investor concerns. Trading scenarios
08/02/2019

Commodity currencies, such as New Zealand, Australian, Canadian dollars, fell on Thursday and continue to decline on Friday amid investor concerns about the global economy.
The USD / CAD pair is trading before the start of the US trading session near the 1.3317 mark, above the important short-term support level of 1.3275 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Investors are once again concerned about the state of the global economy, which causes the purchase of defensive assets and the dollar. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY dollar index futures traded at 96.46, 12 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
White House economic adviser Larry Cudlow told the Fox Business Network that China and the United States are still far from a deal in trade. Hopes for a new trade agreement between the countries weakened after Cudlow's statements.
If a trade truce is not concluded, then on March 2, the United States will raise duties on imports of goods from China by another $ 200 billion to 25% from 10%.
This can have a very negative impact on stock markets and commodity prices, as well as causing investors to withdraw into defensive assets and the dollar.
Declining prices are also putting pressure on CAD quotes. On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices closed at a low from January 28 at $52.64 per barrel.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Above key support levels of 1.3185 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 1.3135 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.3100 (ЕМА50 on the weekly chart) positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails.
Long positions are preferred. Growth targets - resistance levels of 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3665 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
The breakdown of the important short-term support level of 1.3275 will be the beginning of the development of an alternative scenario for reducing USD / CAD with targets at the support levels of 1.3135, 1.3100.
Support Levels: 1.3275, 1.3185, 1.3135, 1.3100
Resistance Levels: 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3790

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3185, 1.3135, 1.3100
Buy Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3270. Take-Profit 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3665, 1.3790



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #366  
Old 11-02-2019, 12:43
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XAU/USD: Technical Analysis
11/02/2019

The dollar is rising again at the beginning of the new week. DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European trading session near the 96.62 mark, almost 20 points above the opening price of the trading day.
Meanwhile, the growth of XAU / USD stopped after at the end of January this currency pair reached of the next multi-month high near the mark of 1326.00.
On Monday, XAU / USD broke through an important short-term support level of 1310.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline towards the important support level of 1292.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
In the event of a breakdown of this support level, XAU / USD may decline to key support levels of 1265.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1259.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above these levels there is a long-term positive trend. In the case of their breakdown, XAU / USD risks returning a long-term bearish trend with targets at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).
After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1326.00, XAU / USD growth may resume with targets at resistance levels of 1357.00 (2017 highs), 1370.00 (start of a decline wave and Fibonacci level 100%).
Below the short-term resistance level of 1310.00, short positions are preferable.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support Levels: 1302.00, 1292.00, 1277.00, 1265.00, 1259.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Resistance Levels: 1310.00, 1315.00, 1326.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1298.00. Stop Loss 1317.00. Take-Profit 1292.00, 1277.00, 1265.00, 1259.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00
Buy Stop 1317.00. Stop Loss 1298.00. Take-Profit 1326.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1375.00



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  #367  
Old 12-02-2019, 12:05
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GBP/USD: Current Dynamics
12/02/2019

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, the country's GDP grew by 1.3% in the 4th quarter (year on year) against 1.6% growth in the 3rd quarter (the forecast was +1.4%). In December, GDP fell by 0.4%. It was the weakest growth since 2012. The slowdown was mainly due to a reduction in investment in 2018.
Many economists predict that in the first quarter of 2019, UK real GDP will grow by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter.
In the case of a “tough” Brexit, the British economy may fall into recession. Uncertainty about future relations with European countries will persist for several more years, many economists say.
At the beginning of the European trading session, the GBP / USD pair is trading near the 1.2845 mark, and the pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair persists.
At the same time, many economists see foreign trade as the main source of concern for the global and American economies.
This week high-level trade negotiations will be held in Beijing. Investors hope to conclude an agreement before the planned increase in trade duties in March.
If trade negotiations are again disrupted, then investor sentiment will deteriorate again, which will lead to a fall in stock indices and an increase in defensive asset prices. The deterioration of US trade relations with China may have an even more negative impact on both the Chinese and the American economy. And this is a negative factor for the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

So far, preferred short positions. The main trend of GBP / USD is still bearish. The objectives of the decline are support levels of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), 1.2485, 1.2365.
Purchases can only be considered after GBP / USD returns to a zone above the key resistance level of 1.3020 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and an increase to the resistance level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 years near the level of 1.7200).
The first signal for opening long positions will be the breakdown of important short-term resistance levels of 1.2920 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2895 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance Levels: 1.2895, 1.2920, 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3065, 1.3125, 1.3210

Trading recommendations

Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2940. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2940. Stop Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3065, 1.3125, 1.3210



*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
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  #368  
Old 13-02-2019, 11:55
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S&P500: market expectations
02/13/2019

Expectations of a positive outcome of negotiations between the US and China and the conclusion of a trade truce supports investor optimism.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that "tariff increases for Chinese imports on March 1 may not occur if we are close to a trade agreement".
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of US inflation indicators. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer inflation in the United States slowed in January. This is a positive factor for the US stock market.
After the December Fed meeting, the head of the central bank, Jerome Powell, repeatedly stated that the Fed could be more patient in raising rates. In his opinion, the central bank is ready to change its policy “substantially” if necessary, and that it will listen carefully to the market. On Wednesday, Powell said that "incoming data suggests that the US economy is in good shape," supporting investors' optimism, putting on further growth of the US stock market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

At the moment, the S&P500 index is trying to develop an upward trend above the key support level of 2700.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Growth targets are resistance levels of 2873.0, 2936.0.
Alternative scenario: breakdown of support level 2660.0 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart) and further decline with targets at support levels of 2615.0, 2603.0, 2584.0, 2450.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 2386.0 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), 2256.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), which will indicate the break of the S&P500 bullish trend.
Support Levels: 2733.0, 2700.0, 2676.0, 2615.0, 2603.0, 2584.0, 2533.0, 2507.0, 2450.0, 2386.0, 2335.0
Resistance Levels: 2817.0, 2873.0, 2936.0

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 2730.0. Stop Loss 2770.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2676.0, 2615.0, 2603.0, 2584.0, 2533.0, 2507.0, 2450.0, 2386.0, 2335.0
Buy Stop 2770.0. Stop Loss 2730.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2817.0, 2873.0, 2936.0



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  #369  
Old Yesterday, 12:40
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EUR/USD: pending US retail statistics
14/02/2019

Futures on the dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is traded on Thursday almost unchanged before the publication of US reports on inflation and retail sales, near the mark of 97.00. The DXY dollar index has been growing for the second week in a row.
On Wednesday, the growth of the dollar was supported by positive macro statistics, which indicated a rise in inflation in the US + 1.6% in January, which turned out to be better than the forecast + 1.5%. The base consumer price index (excluding food and energy) in January increased by 2.2% (the forecast was + 2.1%). The data indicated that inflation in the US is near the target Fed level of 2%. If inflation continues in the coming months, the likelihood of another interest rate increase in the United States will increase, making the dollar more expensive and attractive to investors.
At the same time, European macro statistics released on Thursday indicated a slowdown in the European economy at the end of 2018.
According to the data of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, published on Thursday, the country's GDP grew in the 4th quarter of 2018 by only 0.1% after a decrease in the 3rd quarter of 2018 by 0.8% (year-on-year).
The German economy in the 4th quarter of 2018 for the first time in six years was on the verge of recession.
Eurozone GDP in the 4th quarter rose by + 0.2% (+ 1.2% in annual terms), which coincided with the forecast and the first estimate. Eurozone GDP growth in 2018 was 1.8% versus 2.4% in 2017, which once again indicated a slowdown in the growth of the European economy.
The Eurodollar reacted negatively to the publication of statistics on Wednesday and Thursday, updating the 3-month low near the 1.1249 mark.
On Thursday, market participants will follow the publication of US retail sales data at 1:30 pm (GMT). Retail sales in the US are expected to increase by + 0.4% in December (against + 0.9% in November and + 0.3% in October).
In general, the indicators can be considered positive. However, their relative decline may adversely affect the dollar quotes. Data better than the forecast will resume the growth of the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Currently, EUR / USD is trading near 1.1270, below key resistance levels of 1.1530 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1480 (ЕМА144 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart). Downward dynamics prevail. A further decline is likely with targets at support levels of 1.1215 (November and year lows), 1.1200, 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1270, 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1335, 1.1380, 1.1480, 1.1530, 1.1680, 1.1780

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1245. Stop-Loss 1.1310. Take-Profit 1.1215, 1.1120, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop Loss 1.1245. Take-Profit 1.1335, 1.1380, 1.1480, 1.1530




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  #370  
Old Today, 11:24
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WTI: Market expectations
15/02/2019

On Friday, WTI oil prices are in a narrow range near $54.50 a barrel, and oil market participants are waiting for the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of a weekly report from the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US. Their number increased in the previous week and currently stands at 854 units, although this is below the maximum of 887 units reached at the end of 2018.
At the moment, oil prices are recovering after falling in the 4th quarter of 2018 (oil prices in the end of December hit bottom near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel of WTI crude oil). Rising oil prices create an incentive for American oil companies to increase production, which, in turn, is a deterrent to rising oil prices. The increase in the number of drilling rigs is a negative factor for oil prices and will create prerequisites for the subsequent decline in oil prices.
At the present moment, a number of positive fundamental factors prevail over negative ones. Possible further rise in oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Last Tuesday, the price of WTI crude oil broke through an important resistance zone at 52.75 (ЕМА200 on 4-hour chart), 53.10 (ЕМА200 on 1-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) and maintains a positive trend, trading on Friday at resistance level of 54.50 (December highs).
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 55.50, the price growth will continue with targets at the resistance levels of 56.50 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 57.80 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci 38.2% level of the correction to the growth wave that started in February 2016 from the support level, passing near the mark of 27.30), 59.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 52.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%) and the resumption of decline in the downstream channels on the daily and weekly charts, the lower limit of which passes near the mark of 27.30.
So far, positive dynamics prevail. Long positions are preferred.
Support Levels: 53.55, 53.10, 52.75, 52.00, 51.60, 50.25, 50.00, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Resistance Levels: 55.50, 56.50, 57.00, 57.80, 59.00, 60.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 52.90. Stop Loss 55.10. Take-Profit 52.75, 52.00, 51.60, 50.25, 50.00, 49.00, 46.00, 42.20
Buy Stop 55.10. Stop Loss 52.90. Take-Profit 55.50, 56.50, 57.00, 57.80, 59.00, 60.00




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