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  #81  
Old 08-10-2018, 09:11
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 8, 2018



The euro major pair persisted holding the level of 1.15 on Friday, which is likely to similarly happen today. The pair bounced up from the low range on Thursday and the support level was further held up by the bulls giving optimistic outlook in the future. Few updates added to bullishness of the currency while some markets, especially stable funds, have thought of the euro downtrend to be limited.

The bulls are able to prop up the support level and probably aim for further purchases to raise the price. It may not be easy for the dollar which is gaining more support because of the Fed, especially with its recent rate hike. Other than that, the dollar currency is also considered to be the good investment in times of crisis which has been for a long time. However, the price just did for a few times.

Furthermore, the price was further supported by the recent talk from the Fed chief Powell who evidently said that there could still be other rate hikes and further boost the dollar. Given this situation, the euro bulls carried took control and held the support area around 1.15 but it may not be easy to further bring the price up. There is not much economic news recently and the euro is likely to consolidate and range almost the rest of the day.
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  #82  
Old 09-10-2018, 10:05
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 9, 2018



The euro major pair closed on a bearish sentiment yesterday amid dovish pressure on the currency and escalating trade tensions. There are also some concerns related to Italy’s budget that was just approved last week. European equities also plunged down to multiple months low on Monday while Italian government bond rose to 4-year high. Italy’s deputy PM noted that anti-austerity perspective will get more powerful across the continent. The euro pair comes in flat and steady at the beginning of Tuesday far from 1.15 but close to the short-term lows.

It seems that the euro pair would extend its decline in reference to the chart while the dollar positions to go higher when the market return in full power and the US Treasury yields will surge up. The pair was not able to hold moderate gains steady above the bearish 20-SMA. Currently, a dynamic intraday resistance is found at 1.1500 with the momentum remains at a bearish slope lower than 100. Yet, the RSI indicator moved steadily above oversold area despite limited volume and insufficient momentum. In the technical aspect, the resistance level is at 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1565 and support at 1.1460, 1.1420, 1.1475.
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  #83  
Old 10-10-2018, 10:51
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2018



The euro against the US dollar exhibited a sharp drop during the Tuesday session because of Italian policy news, as well as, deputy PM Salvin rhetorics in plans of maintaining the budget and EU rules are anticipated to change. A strong dollar added more concern, resulting to surge in US Treasury yields. However, the euro begins to take the lead later on as the dollar weakened in the market due to the drop in US bond yield after reaching record highs. Moreover, risk sentiment has just returned in the market giving a positive impact following a hawkish tone in the Wall Street in the global market.

In a technical aspect, a long-tailed Doji candle was observed, implying a sell-off from the September high of 1.1815. A bullish reversal would be confirmed if the spot closes this day higher than the Doji candle of 1.1503. Based on the chart, the descending line has been cleared and trades above the 50- and 100-EMA with the RSI at 55, siding with the bulls. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish RSI divergence. It seems that this will result positively on long-legged Doji candle yesterday, confirming a bullish reversal. Yet, there would be lesser tendency to turn bullish from bearish if the Italian bond yields surge in the European session.
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  #84  
Old 11-10-2018, 07:25
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 11, 2018



The euro rose during the Wednesday session. A breakout on the level of 1.15 indicates that there is a demand for the currency. There is a “risk on” move with US traders and drive momentum.

We have seen this scenario where just recently the euro got a sell-off and the North Americans will have a steer to move forward in later in the day, of course, taking note of riskier currencies. Similarly, this is how the trading with the S&P 500 futures market and other precious metals. Worries on Brexit will still be apparent, as well as the debt issue with Italy. These bring uncertainty to traders but the US traders will give attention to their own economy.

Trading on mornings around 9 am where there is a momentum on the oversold situation can be advantageous. Eventually this is likely to change its course but for now, it seems to be moving steadily. The euro pair is not that far from forming the bottom for long-term, where both the resistance and support were previously located last year. A psychologically important level was found at the resistance of 1.18 which seems to be the aim of buyers. Moreover, a lot of noise will likely be present and considering the pair, we can expect more buyers below. A breakdown below 1.14 could result in a sharp decline. Nevertheless, it is less likely to occur at the present time.
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  #85  
Old 12-10-2018, 11:44
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2018



The euro major pair climbed to the top at 1.1590 prior to the release of the US data, which was the highest since October 3. In regards to recent US president, Donald Trump, the statement on fed’s tightening and plunged down equities influencing weakness of dollar during yesterday’s trading. The pair reached the intra-day high 1.15992 since the US CPI and unemployment reports did not meet expectations, resulting in further bullishness of the trend since today is the last day of the week.

In the beginning of the Asian session, the pair broke the level of 1.16, reaching an intra-day and even the monthly high at 1.16103 from 1.1606, grew by 0.11%. With Japan’s equities proceed to trade in red, other major markets such as India, Singapore, and China sighted equities to have an optimistic price action. The US dollar has been trading at its lowest level in October against other markets on Friday while continue to lose in US Treasury yields bringing pessimistic sentiment on Wall Street. On Friday, the dollar traded at 95 against six major currencies from 96.15 monthly high on Tuesday.
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  #86  
Old 15-10-2018, 11:06
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 15, 2018



The euro against the US dollar resumes trading in a slow but steady pace while the market focuses on the dollar being unable to grow. Hence, the dollar was able to gain some decent profits since the start of the year but the euro and the pound were able to take their stand against the dollar. Meanwhile, this gives pressure on the dollar but uncertainty is still on the concern if the dollar could still get a lead.

The Fed is doing what it can to bring the dollar up but it is insufficient. They tried to break lower than 1.15 in the past few weeks but there have been strong buying of the pair and fails as it faced strong purchases and bounce over 1.15. The bulls also were not able to push the prices but still keep going that resulted in a flat in the past few weeks.

There are also concerns on US account deficit in a negative state for a long while which is anticipated to resume for medium-term which cannot be changed for the night despite government’s efforts. This adds pressure to the dollar with rising borrowing costs that will worry the dollar bulls in the medium term. For today, the US retail sales data adds volatility while the bulls are trying to take the lead.
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  #87  
Old 18-10-2018, 11:22
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2018



The euro major pair was kept at the daily lows after the release of FOMC minutes yesterday. It reached a new weekly low at 1.1510 close and hovered close to it after the release of Fed minutes. On Wednesday, the favor was in the dollar against a basket of currencies since the London trading time. Various local equities added to the political tensions and poor inflation have influenced the common currency, which in turn, benefits the US dollar. The dovish macro data has further given a bearish stand for the euro yesterday. Although the US housing data came in less-than-expected allowed some breathing in the market then the dollar continued its hawkish sentiment across the market.

By the end of the Wednesday session, the euro falls at the bottom below 1.1500 while there is another significant meeting of the EU. Consequently, the euro dropped during yesterday’s trading from the day high if 1.1580. Sellers were able to pick up momentum yesterday after the hawkish reports of the US FOMC minutes. In the economic calendar of the euro, the Wholesale Price Index at 06:00 GMT is anticipated to grow by 0.4% from 0.3% and another report on Swiss Trade Balance for September with a forecast of 2.482 billion from 2.134 billion. Nevertheless, the low-impact data is less likely to boost trading as traders are still on the edge waiting for hints on the EU’s EcoFin meeting in Brussels.
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  #88  
Old 19-10-2018, 10:44
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 19, 2018



The euro declined once again during the Thursday session after its bullish sentiment in the beginning. Yet, there is an important support level below which may be just for a short period of time. However, the shooting star pattern below drove the pair lower which something to get worried off. Hence, it is wise to wait on the sidelines, looking for a supportive candle or any bounce to make use of the support.

If the pair breaks lower than 1.1450 on the 4-hour chart, selling can be an option especially if it closes below it. Overall, we can be just grinding and taking a hint on the next move. There are various things to worry about such as the Brexit, the Italian crisis to name a few. Yet, traders should also keep their eye on the Treasury yields for the 10-year T-note from the US. It implies that the greenback can trade and take advantage of this situation with higher interest rate but would be not so good for the euro.

Volatility will present and then trades should be kept at small positions in case a successful breakout of the shooting star and then move further to 1.1530. Hence, there can be a drive to the upper channel and move towards 1.16.
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  #89  
Old 22-10-2018, 11:47
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 22, 2018



The euro major pair bounced up after a decline as it moved towards the support level of 1.1531and closed higher on Friday. However, there is a tendency for the pair to face risk and move higher in short-term. A bullish sentiment was established in the outside-day around the level of 1.1432 on Friday, indicating the pullback has stopped from the October 16 high at 1.1622. The European Union tries to lessen the deficit on budget expansion proposal and further strengthen the common currency on Friday. The European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said tension can be lessened through constructive conversations after the recent warning letter on criticizing fiscal plans of Italy.

The pair was able to find some sufficient support near the monthly lows at the area of 1.1435-30 and rose for almost 100 pips as a major part of weekly losses. The currency was further strengthened because of the dollar but lost some momentum after the rhetorics of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. On the other hand, the market received the news on Italy with its stable outlook that puts a limit on any sudden decline.

There is not much fundamental news that could affect trading while investors look for news that could affect the currency rates amid Italy policy concerns and Brexit updates. Moody’s decision was less-than-expected of investors. Thus, a relief rally on Italian markets may take place today. In case the spread between the 10-year Italy and German yields lessened by 300 bps, this could push the euro major pair higher and break through the level of 1.1535. The resistance levels of the pair would be 1.1535, 1.1575 and 1.1600 and the support levels would be at 1.1463, 1.1432, and 1.1400.
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  #90  
Old 24-10-2018, 07:46
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 24, 2018



The euro declined during the Tuesday session after the initial attempt of a rally. There is an important support level found below at 1.1450 and it seems that this will resume for some time, especially with all the activities happening in the European Union, we can anticipate testing this area will be around for a while.

After a rebound from the level of 1.1450, the euro dropped during the Wednesday session. This area has been significant previously. The price broke the level of 1.15 which seems to be acting as a resistance and a lot of things around the euro seems to be the problem. It could further go down when a fresh new low is broken. The current levels being tested are previously largely resistive in the past few months.

Retesting the current level resumes but a bit more weaker than a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the support continues to be tested and traders should monitor this level which will likely be significant. In case the price breaks higher than the recent high, it would probably head further north. For now, the price is likely to move to and fro because of the Italian debt and political problems surrounding EU. There is a chance to short this pair unless we buy on fresh short-term rallies.
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  #91  
Old 26-10-2018, 10:07
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 26, 2018



The euro major pair has broken the level of 1.1400 and dropped to a new monthly low at 1.1355 yesterday after the ECB monetary policy meeting yesterday. They intend to keep the rates unchanged, which is not surprising after their remarks. Draghi said that he has confidence on both parties with Italy will reach an agreement and said that further stimulus is needed after inflation which will likely gain momentum by the end of the year despite weak activity. The pair was seen to have recovered for a bit during Draghi’s speech and reach as high as 1.1432 during the Asian market and headed towards 1.13. Currently, the pair is trading almost flat with a bearish tone as low as 1.1366 and declined by 0.07% on the day.

The European central bank confirmed of ending the asset purchase program in December despite the budget concerns of Italy, weak data output and Brexit deal negotiation. The euro did not pick up bid price after the Fed officials were not shaken the stock market was not shaken according to Fed vice chair, Richard Clarida, Thus, yield differentials are likely to further increase in favor of the greenback pair.

In regards to the situation of the trade war, a risk-off investor sentiment increases after the Chinese yuan declined to new 21-month low against the dollar, chances of a trade war between the US and China worsening. As fear in the market worsens, risky assets may lose their stand on the last trading session for the week.
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  #92  
Old 29-10-2018, 10:51
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 29, 2018



The euro major pair had a lot of bids on Friday amid the wide losses in the greenback. Yet, the technical analysis continues to be bearish in 5, 10 and 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and heads south. Similarly, the 14-day Relative strength index (RSI) and MACD continue to have a bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the stock markets continue to be on a defense today, putting a lot of bid for the dollar given the Shanghai Composite dropped by 1 percent in Asia. German Chancellor Merkel lost support in the Hesse elections, doubling the greens vote. As for the center-left threatened to leave the coalition.

The pair trading close to the flat level of 1.1395, dropping by 0.06% on the day. This is not good for the common currency given the weakness of Merkel as it limits the capacity of Brexit deal negotiation and with Italian budget crisis at hand. A strong bearish pressure is present after last week ended with a dovish sentiment. Hence, traders remained careful on the weekend. The European calendar remains to be subdued except for the recent publication of EU economic forecast and Finnish Consumer & Industrial confidence data. Nonetheless, these data are not likely to have a big impact on the trading activity.

The market anticipates the release of Core PCE Price index, PCE Deflector data and consumer spending data from the US which will bring volatility during the North American session. At the same time, expectations of Fed tightening was limited by the risk aversion in the US stocks that are anticipated to continue and appeals bidding for the EUR/USD pair.
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  #93  
Old 05-11-2018, 11:00
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 5, 2018



The euro major pair was strongly bid on Friday, taking advantage of the rising momentum because of the broad weakening of the US dollar amid lack of fundamental support but positive non-farm payrolls data. With the uncertainty caused by the US-China trade deal, the greenback was on the lead upon the opening of the trading session for the week. Most of the answers in the survey say that the Democrats will probably win back the house while the Republicans is highly likely to keep the Senate. Thus, Congress is still divided which is what the market anticipates.

The previous week ended in a downward trend following good two-way moves on Friday. It looks the price is set within the falling wedge pattern. In case of a Republican victory in both houses but it may require a fiscal stimulus while a breakout on falling wedge is still far from happening. However, a Democrat victory in both chambers may have an impact to the greenback and result to a falling wedge breakout and a change from bearish to bullish sentiment. As for today, the risk ahead by the midterm elections will probably keep the euro major pair in a flat line.

Furthermore, the reports from ECB add more pressure after another round of a long-term refinancing operation at LTRO, which in turn will support the European banks in the December meeting. Meanwhile, the problem on Italy’s budget hasn’t yet been resolved, as wells as, concerns on big sovereign debt holdings. There is no expected major economic report, therefore, the dollar will highly depend on the technical aspect prior to the release of the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI during the US trading session.
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  #94  
Old 06-11-2018, 09:12
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 6, 2018



Unless an unexpected statement comes out, not much reaction is expected to the RBA statement. The focus will be centered on the inflation of RBA and growth forecast. We can also expect on chances for tightening of lending requirement which may raise concern for some policymakers.

The Australian currency looks to be trading flat shortly prior to the release of the central bank of Australia decision and once again, it is anticipated to keep the cash rate at 1.5 percent. At the same time, traders are hoping for the central bank to stay positive but still gives a neutral policy outlook.

Forecast of the RBA on the employment forecast is being sought after because of the recent decline to 5%, as mentioned by NAB. Meanwhile, only minor short-term changes to GDP forecasts are anticipated and keep the inflation rate of the RBA forecast to be the same.

Today’s report is significant but most of the investors will probably focus on the US midterm election this Tuesday.
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  #95  
Old 07-11-2018, 10:17
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2018



The euro major pair is a continuous changing across the Asian market session as US midterm elections would be on headlines. A steady support was found at the level of 1.14 but continues to move up and down with elections being the US headlines. A sudden decline occurred by 70 pips in early Asian market from highs of 1.1473 to 1.1398 with the probability of Democrats taking the lead and if Democrats win, the dollar will likely bounce off from a sudden decline. As of now, the Euro major pair is trading at 1.1463, gaining 0.33% on the day.

Most of the analysts, as well as investors, expect for a split result on the election, which resulted in the probability of the house majority to push through investigations of Trump’s administration ties with Russia and financial affair while the Republican Senate is struggling to pass any new major legislation Consequently, the pair turned within the range at 1.145 and anticipated to continue trading in a slow range price action until final results are announced. On the technical analysis, it seems that the euro major pair breaks through to exit a falling wedge, changing from a bearish to a bullish trend on the daily chart. Bullish patterns are executed between the 5-day and 10-day SMA, ascending 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs. Higher lows are also achieved on the hourly and 4-hour chart and indicators are leaning on a bullish sentiment.
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  #96  
Old 08-11-2018, 11:22
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2018



The euro major pair faced a bearish drop after the result of split congress which is already anticipated by the market and momentum of the pair starting to become insufficient after the final outcome was announced. The Republicans kept the Senate and Democrats took the House. Although, House will probably pressure Trump concerning taxes whom he pledged to fight back with investigations being out. Meanwhile, the eurozone resulted in a positive macro data which had no impact on price action as momentum yesterday were dominated by the US elections results and the pair has had important gains. Yet, the US dollars recovered in the broad market during the Asian session, as well as late American hours following a major loss against euro yesterday.

There is a probability for the dollar to become dovish if the policy statement shows a sensitive reaction to the recent declines in the stock market. Looking at the technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar 25 delta risk reversals grew to -0.575, which was the peak since August 1. The means that the demand or the implied volatility premium for the cheaper money of euro is presently at the lowest in more than three months. The falling demand for the bearish bets of the euro would mean that investors are anticipating for a stronger recovery rally for the euro major pair. Meanwhile, the greenback starts to kick-off on the 4-hour and daily chart implying the bullish momentum to remain intact, demonstrated that price continues to move higher than the level of 1.14.
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  #97  
Old 09-11-2018, 10:32
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2018



The euro major pair has been moving steadily after the release of the FOMC report since there is a bearish pressure on both currencies. Aside from rising tensions in Europe, the hawkish sentiment remains with market expectations that adds pressure on the common currency. Various political tensions such as Brexit, tensions between Brussels and Rome are anticipated to heighten tension in the next few weeks, yet Brexit is likely to move in a sluggish pace. The issue between EU and Italy influence the spread between Italy and Germany to 300 bps. Other than that, the two major coalition partners in Italy proceeds to take action in limiting immigration that also affects the euro across markets.

These economic events limit the progress of the euro while in the US, uncertainty has pushed investors to side on the US-dominated assents and the greenback. The EUR/USD pair grew modestly after the release of the FOMC statement and rise to 1.1409. It declines immediately and broke the previous slows. The price declined below 1.1350 during the Asian trading session as the US central bank kept the funds' rate at 2.25% to 2.00. At the same time, the recent statement remained the same from the September meeting, providing a solid bullish support. Meanwhile, the Italian bond yields yesterday night after the EU commission’s forecast saying that Italy has undergone inadequate and partial analysis.
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  #98  
Old 12-11-2018, 11:06
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 12, 2018



Brexit remains to be the center for today’s Asian session since UK Prime Minister Theresa May canceled the emergency meeting to approve the Brexit deal this week. The meeting was postponed but the resistance from the cabinet remains strong, added to Brussels concerns, which delays the Brexit talks and lessen the possibility of the expected meeting in November. In this case, the Sterling bulls are on the less favorable situation. Market hopes for a miracle to relieves the pressure amid the heavy headlines with the Brexit as the main concern over the weekend causing more tension in the market. It seems that the market declined by 0.46% from this morning price level of 1.2911.

There is no major economic event for the UK, hence, traders can expect for thin trading volumes given that there is less US money market for the long Thanksgiving weekend but Tuesday seems to offer UK Average Earnings and GBP/USD traders are looking for something an early event to the headlines prior to major economic data. The dollar was strengthened by last week’s gains and grew to a 16-month high on Monday as traders anticipate for the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policies and the bullish tone of the greenback with the ongoing Brexit talks to further escalate the bullish situation. As for the technical perspective, the implied volatility premium grew sharply while an increasing demand for the British pound puts a bearish pressure while traders are anticipating for a much bigger decline of the currency. The risk appetite has also lessened during the Asian trading session as the EU’s situation worsened.
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  #99  
Old 13-11-2018, 10:54
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 13, 2018



The euro influenced the appreciation of greenback during Monday trading session with political uncertainty affecting the European market. The euro major pair dropped to 1.1239 soon after the opening of the London session in the background of tension with the Italian budget as rejected by the EU commission in the previous week. The Italian government submitted again a fiscal plan in correspondence with the EU rules and risk an economic sanction. Yet, it seems that there is no intent to change the budget. The pair is declining across the European and North American hours reaching a fresh 16-month low due to the bearish pressure from both sides of Atlantic.

Lack of progress in the Brexit negotiation adds pressure on the bearish tone to the common currency added to the Italian budget concerns. The White House also intends to reconsider auto tariffs against Europe which gives a dovish sentiment for the investors, further adding a bearish pressure to the common currency in the future. Reconsideration of tariffs on the European market despite ending it a few months after meeting between the US and Europe, which can be because of various reasons such as the global trade war and renewed Iran sanctions and criticism of “America first” in the Trump administration.

There are bids for the EUR/USD pair in Asia and an optimistic view of the renews US-China trade. Yet, the change in budget still questions the Italy that could affect the spread between the high-spend budget to the European Union today will likely increase the spread between the Italian 10-year government bond yield and its German counterpart to the recent high of 325 basis points. Om case that market expectations. If Italy submitted an unchanged budget for euro, traders can anticipate the resumption of a bearish pressure. As for the fundamental data, investors are eyeing on the German CPI data scheduled today which is expected to remain the same. However, in case it turns out positive, this could drive momentum for a relief rally on the euro major pair.
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Old 16-11-2018, 11:14
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2018



The euro major pair did not have an optimistic trading overnight with UK ministers exiting their roles attesting as a protest in the negotiation deal of Prime Minister Theresa May with the EU not meeting UK’s electorate vote. Being against the authority of Theresa May raising uncertainty in the European politics that further raises the chance for the Brexit to be no deal that affects both economies. Nevertheless, the euro major pair rise despite higher forecast of 0.8% by the U.S. Census Bureau US retail sales data in October, higher than the 0.5% market expectation. Meanwhile, the action moves with the reversal on Wall Street that resulted in a rally of the euro and retreating of long yen as the EUR/JPY pair recovered.

Moreover, the greenback also received more bearish pressure after the profit taking on the trade talk news between the US and China, giving America the lead and raising risk appetite. Investors now wait for the speech from ECB president Draghi and a drive on strong bid can take place if Draghi is able to act on the Italy budget crisis and confirm plans on ending the QE program. If Draghi becomes heedful, the price may drop below 1.30 and bet on a delay of the rate hike in 2019. The Eurozone CPI data is anticipated to be released, as well as the data on Industrial production.
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  #101  
Old 19-11-2018, 10:16
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 19, 2018



The euro major pair retreated back higher than 1.14 level after the headlines on US President said to make a trade deal. Although no agreement has been set yet, which in turn, raised risk appetite with investors and kickstart momentum across the market on Friday last week. Thus, the pair gained 200 pips from the low level of 1.1215 on Monday and closed in favor of the euro and grew by 0.81% on the day.

It has been trading close to the Friday high at 1.14 at the beginning of the Asian session as investors became heedful following the dovish comments from ed’s newly appointed vice chair, Richard Clarida, saying a global economic slowdown is important for the US economic outlook and a similar to the interview from the Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan who sees a slowdown in China and Europe. Nevertheless, analysts see this as an acceptable risk factor given that the Fed is reliant on rate hikes while the investors reacted to the dovish rhetorics resulted in US dollar weakened.

Yet, it is unlikely for the euro to hold on the gains for long-term as headlines directed differently after a poor output from the European macro data. Despite the weakened outlook from the PPI data from Germany and PMI of Eurozone give a steady trend in medium- to long-term while analysts anticipate Fed rate hike and suggest a hawkish outlook in the future.
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  #102  
Old 20-11-2018, 12:14
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2018



The British pound major pair is trading in a range-bound at 1.285 at a similar level for the week after Sterling traders had a rest from busy buying schedule who are hopeful of Brexit and selling short on a bearish Brexit situation. Exiting the European Union continues to be a concern for both Sterling investors and Prime Minister Theresa to strengthen the draft for no Brexit deal with her own party who have lost confidence in her office with risks continues to be high with the possibility for the House of Commons to reject the present Brexit offering despite the Prime minister’s efforts that could push the major responsibilities on the works.

Investors are now waiting for the upcoming EU Brexit Summit as traders expected to receive the Brexit plan positively. If there is no confidence vote and the prime minister will be able to keep the position, a no Brexit deal can be avoided. On Tuesday, a speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is expected regarding the British parliament on the latest Inflation report hearings which would have the influence to support the dovish sentiment of the central bank. In the meantime, traders can take a rest from the Brexit worries.
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  #103  
Old 21-11-2018, 11:01
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2018



The euro major par declined abruptly during the US session and reached a fresh new low at 1.1359. The greenback has strengthened across the market in the last hours of trading especially equity in Wall Street paired against yen and euro and consolidated losses due to a bearish decline. Earlier, the price peaked at 1.1472, which has been the highest since November 7 but pulled back and lost momentum, resulting in a correction and lose over 100 pips. The risk-off sentiment yesterday lead the financial markets with the greenback standing strongly against the common currency as well as other main competitors

The decline is not just about the risk-off sentiment with the euro which also had its weakness that was primarily because of the tension between EU Commission and Italy on the 2019 budget. Moreover, the rhetoric by ECB’s Weidmann saying that policy normalization may take a long time.

This adds high bearish pressure on the common currency with concerns on the possible sanction for the Italian government from EU being lenient to France on budget concerns. Italy pointed out that growing out may lead to an economic slowdown that may affect the whole of Europe.

How the EU reacted may add a bearish pressure to the euro if it turns out against Italy, that could add political tension and reach new highs. However, the yields differential may decline abruptly, raising again the euro to yesterday’s high of 1.1472 if the EU becomes more dovish. As for the headlines, there is no data to be released from the Eurozone but existing homes sales data and core durable goods from the US are scheduled today, as well as the weekly crude oil inventory.
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  #104  
Old 23-11-2018, 11:21
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2018



The euro major is moving steadily upward higher than the 1.14 during the Asian session as the sentiment on the common currency shifted by the Brexit optimism and general weakness of the US dollar as markets prepare for the Markit preliminary of November PMI scheduled later from the EU and the US. The euro gained early bids amid thinned market due to holidays. The Asian market supports the Brexit declaration as talked about by the UK and the European Commission for the night that lays out trade relationship prior to the Brexit summer this Sunday.

The weakened US dollar across the market amid trading concerns of the Fed may tighten and slowed down the pace but keeps the currency afloat. Moreover, the euro supported the ECB minutes that showed the central bank pursuing the QE easing program in December in the background of sluggish Eurozone economic growth. On the headlines, the Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI reports will boost and Italian budget concern will still have an influence over the euro in the next few days.
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  #105  
Old 26-11-2018, 11:29
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 26, 2018



The euro is facing various problems including political problems and negative economic data as greenback gains momentum which causes the price movement to be bearishly followed by a weaker Eurozone PMI data and decline from 1.14 to 1.1345. The trading session closed this week with chances to end the latest bullish momentum as price closes lower than the 20-day SMA in favor of the common currency. Various trading factors continue to put pressure on the pair, reaching a 10-day low of 1.1326 during the early Asian session signaled by the drop in Friday to be the sin in ending Euro’s latest recovery rally.

The pair continues to trade range bound close to the weekly lows. Losses during the Friday session can be recovered if the spread between the Italian 10-year government bond yield and its US counterpart continues to minimize. The European Commission promoted an excessive deficit procedure against Italy after the country changed the budget proposals. Concerns on the Italian budget remains to be the main attention of investors amid the minor reduction on budget plans. On the other hand, the greenback resumes having a positive price flow as a boost in equities are anticipated to get better on holidays.

On the fundamentals, there are no major reports from the US that could have a big impact on European markets from ECB President Draghi but releases from eurozone including the German Ifo business climate, German business expectations, and current assessment data, as well as, speeches from ECB President Draghi, Praet, Coeure & Nowotny are likely to affect trading.
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  #106  
Old 29-11-2018, 11:39
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2018



Traders reacted as shown on the sharp price reversal of the euro major pair after the dovish rhetorics of the Fed chair Jerome Powell. The rebound was influenced by the decline in the US Treasury yields after the speech of Powell saying interest rates are just lower than the neutral which may translate as the rate hike cycle will almost end.

The chances to postpone the Fed rate hike in 2019 increases sharply which resulted in a decline of the greenback across the market in the core PCE comes out lower than anticipated. In the second half of the day, the market’s attention will be on the release of Fed minutes. On the technical aspect, the euro major pair added a bullish trend outside the candle given the intraday high and price movement on Tuesday. A bullish reversal would confirm if everything turns out positive and needed to close higher than 1.1388. The short-term trades are also seen to be on a bullish trend but traders remain heedful since the price movement today will rely on the data and it isn’t new to trades for any unforeseen events.
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  #107  
Old 03-12-2018, 10:17
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 3, 2018



The euro major pair is trading close to a fresh midline at 1.1340 during the Monday session after the momentum of risk appetite after the G20 summit over the weekend that allows the broad recovery after the US and China put on hold the tariff increase for another three months as they come to an agreement again. Meanwhile, Italy has been open to negotiating budget plans which can be an obstacle for the euro bulls.

Over the weekend, Italy’s Prime Minister Conte and European Commission’s Jean-Claude Juncker discussed the deal between Italy and the EU while investors are still uncertain about the deficit spending of Italy and growth forecast until solid data has come out. On the headlines, traders should look out for the Eurozone PMI for the month of November while a drop of the German PMI is anticipated right before it.
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  #108  
Old 07-12-2018, 09:44
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2018



The movement of the global trades has affected the US dollar being the safe haven and added downward pressure on the euro major pair. Recent headlines about the arrest of top executive and add worries about the US-China relation that reduces appetite for riskier assets on Thursday. The dollar didn’t gain a leverage on the early uptrend but was instead brought down by the negative US employment report, failing to meet the expected figure. It seems that the USD bulls wasn’t swayed as much with optimistic US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data with its sudden uprise.

Moreover, the shift in the US Treasury bond yield curve that signals potential recession that adds pressure to the dollar and adds momentum to the pair’s intraday positive momentum. The price rose higher than 1.1400 handle, close to the weekly high on Tuesday. It has been moving steadily and oscillating in a narrow trading band during the Asian session. Now, investors are monitoring the US NFP monthly jobs reports that could drive a significant momentum today. Yet, trades still have to be heedful with nearing OMC monetary policy decision in the latter days of the month. Thus, there are less expectations for the day and resume its trading range-bound in a broader trading range.
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  #109  
Old 10-12-2018, 09:53
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 10, 2018



The US dollar dropped below Friday session that has further lower by the unexpected monthly jobs report and shows the economy gained only 155,000 new jobs in November. Dovish comments by the Fed governor Lael Brainard and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard support the comments of the postponement of the Fed rate hike cycle in 2019. Selling greenback has boosted the economy over signs of weaker economic growth in the eurozone and pushed for a steady ascent of the euro major pair, ending the week with optimism, just higher than 1.1400 handle. Another report of the third quarter GDP revision shown an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent, slightly lower than the forecast of 1.7 percent. Nevertheless, this had a few impacts on sales.

Reports on China import and export growth figure published over the weekend that instilled fears of global growth slowdown and chances to postpone the Fed rate hike in 2019. Moreover, worsening trade tension between the US and China, as well as the arrest of top Chinese executive in Canada, has added weight to the sentiment of investors and cap the rally despite important economic reports from the euro or the US. The dollar sell-off will probably continue until the European market hours given the dovish turn of Fed expectation that is favorable for US dollar denominated global currencies in depreciating exchange rate.

Both of the US and European markets are subdued but we can anticipate for the release of job openings reports to be hawkish that could boost the US greenback broad-based market sentiment. On a technical aspect, the pair was able to clear a significant descending resistance trend line and a part of the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart was established.
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:40
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 11, 2018



The euro major pair induced a bearish outside reversal on Monday and was not successful to breakthrough the symmetrical triangle on another Brexit uncertainty. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May postponed the vote on the exit deal which was already anticipated. The added pressure pushed the British currency since April last year and adds pressure to the risky assets resulted in picking up momentum to the safe haven bidding of the US dollar in the broad market. Furthermore, the possibility of a hard Brexit to continue in the past 24 hours. Hence, risky assets may gain more pressure at least until the uncertainty of Brexit was removed. Euro was also pushed down in the broad market yesterday as French President Macron announced economic emergency regarding the yellow vest protests.

The spread between the US 10-year yield and its German counterpart was 260 basis points, which was the lowest level since October 1. On a technical aspect, the sudden overnight retracement resulted in a short-term bullish breakout that may lead to a fake-out. The weakness lower than the area of 1.1350-45, it strengthens the possibility of a breakout and hastens the movement towards another ascending trend-line support. A continuous weakened movement will push the pair in returning to the yearly lows of 1.1215. On the other hand, a breakout in the solid resistance will likely move the pair towards the 1.1500 level.
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  #111  
Old 12-12-2018, 11:41
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2018



The euro major pair is trading within a range after the sudden drop to the overnight lows at 1.1400 below the middle of 1.13. The US dollar reversed the majority of its early losses following the release of the core PPI data which is one of the main factors to influence the overnight decline of the pair. The currency was further pushed lower bu the Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria’s rhetorics over the fixed budget of Italy within the European Commission. Yet, the pair has gotten steady caused by the positivity of the Sino-US session trade talk and reaches close to the previous low.

The US President Donald Trump has said Reuters would get involved if these will support the trade deal with China. Moreover, further negotiations are already taking place via the phone but if necessary, he is willing to meet with President Xi Jinping once again. Consequently, the US dollar weakened as a safe haven in Asia the puts a stop to yesterday’s sharp decline.

On the headlines, the European markets anticipate for the release of the Industrial production data while on the US, the Core CPI & Crude Oil Inventories data are scheduled today. The price action will be highly affected by the ongoing political issues in Europe and US macro data, which will highly likely bring in volatility in the market. Considering the technical perspective, calm bidding was seen during the Asian session after the Nov 13 and 28 lows yesterday. Meanwhile, the rising trend line resulted in a deeper sell-off and a bullish reversal is established when the price goes above the 55-day moving average.
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  #112  
Old 17-12-2018, 11:13
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 17, 2018



The euro major pair had a reduction triangle breakdown on Friday after the rise of global growth fears, resulting for traders to shift to equities to minimize risks. The pair is currently trading in the flat as investors are looking forward to FOMC as guidance.

Traders continue to draw bids, sending the euro major pair at as lower rate towards the latest low of 1.1215 if the global equities continue to be the solution amid the rising uncertainty of growth internationally. On Friday, weak economic data from China has awakened fears for a global economic slowdown and lessens investor’s appetite for riskier assets. People looking for safety has strengthened the US dollar as a safe-haven that increases the dollar by 1 and a half year high, inducing a strong selling of the EUR/USD pair. The common currency was further dampened by the weakened German and eurozone PMI in December, indicating a prominent slow down from both manufacturing and services. These data confirmed the dovish sentiment of ECB on Thursday and pushed traders to lessen expectation for next year’s rate hike. It further pushes the common currency to break through lower than 1.13.

Yet, the mixed result from the US macro calendar resulted to a decline of both Industrial/Manufacturing production data and PMI despite the retail sales data, prompting sluggish business growth and reduces prospect for fed rate hike in 2019, limiting the euro decline and triggers a rebound from below and hover above 1.13 as market closed for the week. Meanwhile, the broad-based market for the dollar pushes the euro lower. It was able to trade flat during the Asian session starting the trading session for the week. Currently, the euro major pair is trading flat at 1.1307 with an apparent increase of 0.015 on the day. Meanwhile, the pair is showing a positive trend while the upside continues to be restricted by the FOMC update being the major event for the week, which will influence the future trading of the dollar.
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  #113  
Old 19-12-2018, 11:32
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 19, 2018



The euro major pair stays higher than the mid-level of 1.13 during the Asian session today. Early morning the price grew by 100 pips from Friday last week low of 1.1270 and rebounded from a two-week low and continues to move forward on Tuesday, despite the not-so-good data on German Ifo business climates in December due to broad-based USD sell-off momentum. Meanwhile, Italy has reached an agreement with the European Union regarding the controversial issue on the budget which supported the positive drive for the euro bulls but was not able to induce a bullish breakout.

The dollar sell-off was from the retracement from 1.5 years last Friday that further worsened by the concerns of the slow rate from the Federal Reserve or put on hold with the sharp drop of the dollar index reaching one week low yesterday. The Bearish pressure grew higher after the intervention of the US president on the Fed’s monetary policy that influenced further the weaker sentiment. The pair grew to 1.1400, gaining 40 pips over one week but soon began its decline from highs and settled to 40 pips from a daily swing high. The pair was able to hold range-bound trading in the upper half of 1.13 across the Asian market. On the headlines, traders will give their attention to the anticipated US FOMC interest rates decision while the US Fed is presumed to raise their rates by 25 bps, which was the fourth rate hike this year and look forward to the increase in 2019 on a “dot-plot” which will determine the short to medium term sentiment on greenback and possible give a new direction for the major currency.
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  #114  
Old 26-12-2018, 11:09
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2018



The euro major pair began with a lead over the dollar for this week due to various negative reasons such as high tensions with the US government tension concerning the White House and the Federal Reserve. Trading has been calmed during the Asian session amid the holiday season with the majority of the market are closed. Yet, bull traders are heedful given various factors such as geopolitical concerns and a sluggish economy that prompts investors to be careful with the thin market trading and European markets closed and internal crisis with the US.

There is no expected macroeconomic data to influence trading even for just a short period of time that has also put a limit to liquidity in the market. The EUR/USD pair is presumed to resume its bullish trading in favor of the greenback across the trading hours. Meanwhile, investors are focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence data and new home sales data scheduled to be released on Thursday, followed by the German CPI data on Friday that may give short-term opportunities.

The pair continues to move higher for the week on a broad-based weaker dollar but may face a strong resistance that may be difficult to surpass because of lack of momentum in the market. Technical trading continues to move with not much changes since the beginning of the week.
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  #115  
Old 27-12-2018, 11:21
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2018



After the holidays, the pair has moderate gains while the pair undergoes pressure on Wednesday, removing weekly gains. However, despite no macroeconomic data releases and thin trading sessions, the dollar strengthened amid the rising US Treasury bond yields. It was able to move steadily above the level of 96.50, which supports the greenback and declined lower than 1.14 and further moved as low as 1.34. The risk appetite has restricted the losses after the Wall Street rally and optimistic Asian equity market by the year-end trading session. To some level, this sustains the volatility and recoup from losses and return to the level of 1.38.

Fundamental data are expected from the ECB and two economic data namely the dovish CB Consumer Confidence and new home sales data that is anticipated to give a rising forecast for the month of November. Nonetheless, no matter how the data came out, the pair is likely to move range-bound amid the thin market for holidays which may limit any major upward movement. Next week’s forecast will probably be the same during the holidays for this week.

On a technical aspect, the price continues to have a bearish pressure in the present and future trading. Short-Term support was found close to the 200-SMA and base of the weekly range with some sort of bearishness to 20-SMA. However, below the midlines lacking any strength gives a neutral stance with uncertain direction.
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  #116  
Old 10-01-2019, 11:44
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2019



The euro major pair was successful to have a bullish breakout in a wider price range for the past three months. It was driven mainly by a dovish Fed meeting after an update in China-US trade deal which was being followed by almost everyone. During the American session, the long-term resistance was broken at 1.14985 giving a good momentum after a bullish breakout as the price ranges at 1.15 followed by consolidation at Asian hours. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes pushed the price for a breakout which then underwent a bearish bias before the release of the Fed minutes given the dovish rhetorics from various FOMC members.

Some of the committee members are supports the rate hike amid the continuous slowdown since December throughout the world market, as well as, the US economy. Moreover, this shows that the majority of the members monitors the market carefully, considering the sluggish pace of rate increase along with the investor’s expectations to pause the rate hike plans this year. On a long-term perspective, this engages major fund flow in the market as a safe-haven currency with a risk of a recession for short-term due to Fed plans of multiple rate hikes. This greatly impacted the USD bulls and foster risk appetite in the market.

Meanwhile, investors attention are now on the ECB’s most recent minutes of the meeting as they look forward to the economic slowdown in the European market or hints on the possibility of an early rate hike by the central bank in 2019. This could further strengthen the euro bulls to break higher than the 1.16 mark.

As for the fundamental reports, the initial jobless claims, new home sales data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are anticipated today from the US market that would likely bring short-term profit opportunities for retail traders.
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  #117  
Old 15-01-2019, 11:25
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 15, 2019



The euro was able to close yesterday with optimism despite risk-off trading that is predominant in the market after a disappointing release from Chinese import and export data. Today, we can expect the pair trading range-bound with a bit of a positive bias but not a major increase as traders are still careful with the upcoming Brexit approval vote in the UK House of Commons. The output is anticipated to have a strong impact on short-term price movement between the British pound and the euro in the broad market. Although, the general forecast in the market is expecting a rejection in the vote today unless it goes against public anticipated outcome. If so, the euro will struggle with any big changes in the price movement.

After the parliament vote on Brexit but not optimistic to Theresa May limit volatility in the market to a certain degree. The market already positioned and expected the rejection of Brexit will win over May’s, which the headlines will give fundamental support to euro. The US greenback is leasing against broad-based risky sell-off yesterday. However, the US dollar in calm given the partial shutdown of the US government added to the dovish bias of the Fed's policy rate hike that adds pressure to the greenback on the broad market.

On the headlines, three data are expected including French CPI & HICP data, French GDP data & Euro area trade balance data. An increase in French GDP is anticipated to rise in monthly readings while others remain the same. From the US, data on Trade balance and PPI are anticipated to be released with a dovish bias compared to the previous numbers. Traders are anticipated to look for short-term opportunities given the expected speech of ECB Draghi in today’s US session and FOMC member Robert Kaplan, which will likely bring high volatility in the market.
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  #118  
Old 21-01-2019, 11:43
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 21, 2019



The euro major pair struggles amid the geopolitical and economic problems that resulted in calm price action. It broke the significant support level of 1.1364 on Friday. It drops as low as 1.1353 given the dovish pressure from the European market in euro for the week, despite the steady risk appetite. With euro affected by the political concerns, these events continue to bring in a bearish influence on Monday session that is anticipated to limit the upward potential in the European market. A number of European news, including Brexit deal negotiation, “Anti-EU Axis” of Italy, French yellow vest protest, have continuously affected the economic activity. At the same time, this hurts the investors’ risk appetite in the background of China-US trade war also puts a ceiling to the bullish possibilities of the pair.

The trade war between China and the US remains to be the main factor, influencing the long-term high-risk assets in the global market, as well as other news that gives rise to the higher risk in worsening the trade war while bearing in mind the issue on Intellectual property infringement to influence the long-term trend and suggests a higher possibility of a downward movement of short-term trades. On another hand, China’s GDP implies growth despite trade war that has slowed down the Chinese economy in less than 30 years, which in turn keeps steady the risk appetite in Asian markets. This boosted the rebound of the pair last week following a post minor consolidation at the beginning of the Asian market. However, there is not enough headlines to support the bulls, hence, limited its uptrend at 1.137 prior to the European hours.

On the economic calendar releases, it seems to be subdued for both currencies but expecting for the German PPI data that is presumed to drop compared to the previous reading of the European economic climate and largely impact the near-term trading of the common currency. Amid the careful sentiment of the global market with the prevalent risk appetite and lack of fundamental data for the euro, we can assume for the resumption of a bearish price movement of the pair in the future.
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  #119  
Old 23-01-2019, 11:56
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2019



The euro closed on a neutral stance yesterday after a sudden two-way price action due to recent headlines. While there is a high demand for safe-haven assets reaching a 16-day low in the early trading session, the US equities dropped on conflict with the China-US trade war that resulted for the US dollar to decline in the broad market, supporting the recovery of euro from intraday lows. On the other hand, the US dollar sustained its bullish momentum with rising concerns with a trade war, which sets risk off trading and yields range-bound trading during Asian hours and closed today’s post on a neutral state. Moreover, the US dollar is influenced to have a dovish sentiment in the broad market on rate hike plans for the year and partial government shutdown.

News implying worsening of the Sino-US will continue to negatively affect global growth, making investors cautious on the negotiation, despite the clear talks during the meeting earlier this month that weren’t exactly published yet and additionally, the US Treasury department commented saying that issues were unsettled.

Given that there are no major releases scheduled both from the US and Europe, the EUR/USD pair is assumed to trade range-bound, higher than the critical support level. News momentum and risk-off trading activity dominated trading on Tuesday. Macro data from the Atlantic area didn’t have any major impact on the price movement. Meanwhile, investors are focused on the ECB and the outcome of the post-MPC conference tomorrow. If ECB members comments aligned with the statement from ECB president Mario Draghi will result in a sharp decline. While investors wait for the MPC update, they are likely to hold back from placing any major bets that also supports the tendency of range-bound trading for today’s trading session.
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  #120  
Old 31-01-2019, 11:28
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2019



The euro major is trading within the range close to last night high during the Asian market hours. The profit gain gave a bullish trend previously after the statement from MPC, who decided to keep the interest rates as anticipated. Yet, the increase plans for the year has changed and delayed the increase which prompted investors to wait and monitor traders as a strategy. However, this opens the possibility for the Fed to contract rather than increase the interest rates relative to the economic situation. Consequently, the dollar turned into a dovish sentiment in the broad market. The dollar has had another bullish tone after the Fed update of Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his post-FOMC conference speech saying that the balance sheet reduction that will move along the changes in future economic conditions, according to a news report from WSJ at the beginning of the week.

Yet, trades will likely end earlier amid the pressure due to Powell giving impact on trade wars and chances of the government shutdown in US economy and give a dovish tone. Moreover, the difference in spread between Germany and 10-T bonds dropped in Asian hours amid the dovish sentiment and increasing dollar in the broad market. This supports the euro bulls to gain a stronger stance higher than the 1.15 level. Currently, traders wait for the outcome of the US-China trade war and look for favorable signals for the common currency in the broad market.
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