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  #481  
Old 19-03-2021, 21:00
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EUR/USD. March 19, 2021 | The dollar is back under the 1.1900 level

On Friday, the dollar returned to the 1.19 level, having recouped most of the losses incurred following the FOMC meeting. The American regulator said that it does not intend to raise interest rates until 2023, however, the recovery of the dollar and the growth of government bond yields indicate that market participants are still guided by an optimistic economic scenario.

The dollar was also supported by an increase in the manufacturing activity index (according to the Philadelphia Fed report), which also underpins the improved economic forecasts of the central bank. The index rose from 23.3 to 51.8 points, reaching a maximum of the last 48 years.

At the same time, the euro is under pressure from the worsening situation with the coronavirus in Europe. Many countries are returning to lockdowns, others are in no hurry to remove restrictions. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, believes that all this is due to a decrease in the rate of vaccination against the background of refusal of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to possible severe side effects.

The economic calendar is empty for today. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1880. The RSI indicator weakly declines from the neutral zone, which signals further moderate strengthening of the dollar.
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  #482  
Old 22-03-2021, 18:09
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GBP/USD. March 22, 2021 | Sterling moderately grows at the beginning of the week

At the end of last trading week, the pound sterling fell to the 1.3800 area. On Monday, the pair is trying to win back losses, rising to 1.3850.

The latest macroeconomic data from the UK turned out to be rather weak, so the pound is unlikely to strengthen significantly. The pound made some attempts to grow after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England last Thursday. The regulator decided to keep the base interest rate at 0.1%, and the volume of redemption of assets from the market – at 895 billion pounds.

The central bank also noted that if the inflation forecast deteriorates, the monetary policy committee is ready to take any necessary additional actions. However, no tightening of monetary policy is expected until there is confidence in achieving a robust 2% inflation target.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. In the coming days, data on business activity, employment, inflation and retail sales in the UK will be released. Experts expect the numbers to strengthen as mass vaccinations boost confidence and economic activity.

EUR/USD. March 22, 2021 | The euro is trying to close above 1.19

The main currency pair is trading slightly above the 1.1900 level on Monday. The euro is trying to regain the losses of the last week, but this is not happening very confidently. The fact is that the US dollar remains quite stable after the comments and decisions of the FRS following the March meeting. Moreover, the yield on US government bonds continues to rise, which provides fundamental support to the greenback.

The rise in bond yields came after the announcement that the Fed had not extended the benefits for second-tier banks introduced last year due to the coronavirus pandemic. The mechanism was introduced to stimulate bank lending; now, according to the Fed, there is no obvious need for it.

The euro, in turn, is under pressure due to the suspension of Covid vaccinations in Europe with the drug company AstraZeneca. Investors fear that against the background of this, the terms of lockdowns in some European countries will be extended, and this is a certain negative for the European currency.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Attention can only be attracted by the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. However, market participants are unlikely to learn something new, since the head of the regulator has repeatedly commented on the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.
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Old 23-03-2021, 20:23
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EUR/USD. March 23, 2021 | The euro continues to decline from the level of 1.19

The euro continues to be under pressure against the dollar, settling below the 1.1900 level. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1875. Recently, the main driver of fluctuations in the US dollar has been the movement of the yield on US government bonds: when it grows, the dollar also begins to rally.

An additional important factor supporting the dollar is the optimism about a quick recovery of the American economy, including taking into account additional stimulus.

At the same time, the eurozone is mired in a crisis, which puts significant pressure on the euro rate. The fact is that Europe is lagging behind the United States in terms of vaccination of the population, and an increasing number of countries are again tightening or extending quarantine restrictions. As a result, the economic indicators of the eurozone are showing a decline, and the ECB is forced to remain cautious in all its steps and actions.

This week is scheduled to publish data on business activity in the euro area and the result of the IFO survey in Germany. Analysts predict that new releases could disappoint the markets once again. Today the economic calendar is almost empty, so the pair will continue to decline slightly in anticipation of new drivers.
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  #484  
Old 25-03-2021, 15:50
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EUR/USD. March 25, 2021 | Euro fell to the level of 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair continues to be in the clutches of «bears»: the current quotation of the euro is 1.1800.

The strengthening of the dollar is again helped by the rise in the yield of US bonds. In addition, the worsening epidemiological situation in the euro area continues to negatively impact the single currency.

Today we should pay attention to the final data on US GDP for the fourth quarter. These statistics should confirm preliminary estimates that showed a slowdown in the rate of economic decline from -2.8% to -2.4%. Therefore, these statistics are unlikely to have any impact on the market. But the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which should once again be reduced, can provide significant support to the dollar. In this case, we expect a further decline in the European currency below the level of 1.18.

EUR/USD. March 24, 2021 | «Bears» are approaching the 1.1800 level

During the trading session on Wednesday, the euro continues to decline. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1825.

The pressure on the European currency is exerted by the prospect of a worsening economic situation in the eurozone countries amid the development of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Many countries in the region are resuming restrictive measures. Including Germany, the largest economy in Europe, where a new quarantine was introduced until April 18. France and Italy are also under severe restrictions that delay the recovery of the entire European region.

The situation is aggravated by the problems with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is being phased out by an increasing number of EU countries.

Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the widespread strengthening of the dollar in the market. Greenback is growing after the speeches of D. Powell and D. Yellen in Congress, who said they expect a strong recovery in the US economy this year thanks to successful vaccinations.

The head of the FRS also noted that he does not expect an unwanted acceleration of inflation after the adoption of the stimulus package, adding that the regulator has all the necessary tools to curb the excessive rise in price pressure. Against this background, the dollar index approached the maximum level in the last 4 months.
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  #485  
Old 26-03-2021, 15:08
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GBP/USD. March 26, 2021 | The sterling returned to the 1.38 level

The British currency continues to win back losses in pairing with the dollar, rising almost closely to the level of 1.3800.

The main support for the pound sterling was provided by economic reports from the UK. In particular, retail sales rose 2.1% in February after falling 8.2% a month earlier, in line with market participants' expectations. The indicator on an annualized basis was -3.7% against the forecast of -3.5%. The basic index of retail sales in monthly terms amounted to 2.4%, in annual terms – minus 1.1%, which turned out to be better than the experts' forecasts.

An additional positive for the sterling was the comments of the chief economist of the Bank of England and member of the Monetary Policy Committee Andy Haldane, who said that the UK economy will show a very rapid recovery.

However, the US dollar also feels quite stable. Yesterday's GDP and labor market data showed that America's economy is recovering and unemployment is gradually declining.
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  #486  
Old 29-03-2021, 11:24
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EUR/USD. March 29, 2021| Euro remains below 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair continues to move within a narrow range of 1.1750-1.1800. The main support for the US dollar last week was provided by economic statistics, which allowed the dollar index to reach a four-month high.

Individual spending fell 1%, while the expected decline was only 0.7%. At the same time, revenues fell 7.1% (vs. 7.3% forecast), and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward (from 83.6 to 84.9). Moreover, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits reached the lowest level for the entire period of the pandemic (684 thousand applications).

The IFO report on the index of the business climate in Germany helped to stop the fall in the euro: the indicator exceeded analysts' expectations, rising to 96.6 points. However, the euro is still under strong pressure from the difference in the epidemiological situation between the US and the eurozone. The United States plans to return to normal life in a few months, while the fight against coronavirus in Europe is far from successful. In Germany, they fear that the third wave of the pandemic will be the most destructive and they propose to return the curfew.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, the pair will continue to fluctuate weakly below the 1.1800 level.
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  #487  
Old 30-03-2021, 14:35
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EUR/USD. March 30, 2021 | Euro continues to decline to multi-month lows

The main currency pair continues to update its lows, reaching 1.1725. Sales of the European currency continue due to the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus in the euro area, as well as against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, which is in demand due to the growing interest in «safe» assets.

On Tuesday, the economic calendar is not of particular interest, but the rest of the week will be quite informative. Today it is worth paying attention only to the important release on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for March. Analysts do not exclude an increase in the indicator from 91.3 to 97.0 points, which is very positive for the US dollar.

Tomorrow, President Biden will unveil his $3 trillion infrastructure project, and a key US non-farm employment report will be released on Good Friday (although markets in many countries, including the US, will be closed). Investors are preparing for the strongest payrolls in the last 5 months.

However, there are risks: Biden's infrastructure project could be financed by raising taxes, and these are new taxes in the amount of $1 to $3 trillion, and the higher the real figure, the stronger the pressure on the stock market will be.
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  #488  
Old 31-03-2021, 23:04
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GBP/USD. March 31, 2021 | Pound sterling is corrected after the release of GDP data

The British pound is showing some strengthening today against the dollar after the publication of a block of economic statistics. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3766.

UK GDP in the IV quarter of 2020, according to the final data, grew by 1.3% q/q, while the forecast of an increase of 1.0% q/q. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y. Such indicators can be considered positive, since by the end of a rather difficult year, the British economy was still able to show good results.

At the same time, the property price index in Great Britain in March fell by 0.2% m/m after an increase in February by 0.7% m/m. This is worse than forecasted, but it can be explained by the cold weather this spring and the continued lockdown. In-store prices continued to fall in March and fell 2.4% y/y due to massive discounts, special offers and discounts.

In the evening, you should also pay attention to the data from the United States. The dollar may receive strong support from the ADP statistics, which should show an increase in employment by 380 thousand. And this is a very good result, indicating a confident recovery of the labor market in the United States. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will continue to rise to the area of ​​local highs near 1.3660.

EUR/USD. 31.03 | Euro recovers after falling to 1.1700

Yesterday, the euro slipped even more, falling to the level of 1.1700. The fall was again driven by a jump in Treasury yields amid successful US vaccinations and a faster economic recovery. Back in early January, rates on 10-year bonds were 0.91%, and in March the figure reached 1.77%. The widening yield spread between US and German securities is also an additional negative factor for the European currency.

However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is showing some correction: the asset quotes rose to the 1.1735 area. The entire spectrum of risky assets was supported by the publication of China PMI indices. The index of business activity in the service sector in March rose to 56, points against the forecast of growth to 51.9. In the industrial sector, the indicator was 51.9 against expectations of 51.3 points.

Additional support for the pair was provided by the data on employment in Germany. The indicator came out better than the forecast, showing a decrease in the number of unemployed by 8 thousand.

Tonight, attention should be paid to the speech of US President Joe Biden, during which the head of the White House will present a new program of economic assistance in the amount of $1.5-3 trillion.
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  #489  
Old 05-04-2021, 14:22
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Brent. April 02, 2021| Oil starts to grow after the OPEC+ meeting

The price of Brent oil started to rise after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the heads of the OPEC+ countries. At the moment, the quotes rose to the level of $65.03 per barrel, the current price of the asset is $64.70.

The alliance, contrary to expectations, decided to gradually increase oil production within three months, starting in May. In particular, the collective increase in the current production level in May will amount to 350 thousand barrels per day, in June – 350 thousand barrels per day, and in July production will grow by 450 thousand barrels per day. Thus, the OPEC+ countries will increase production by more than 1 million barrels in three months.

Saudi Arabia may also cut some of its previously voluntarily assumed additional production limit of 1 million barrels per day. It is noted that the majority of OPEC+ members initially supported the extension of the existing cuts, but the general sentiment changed after Saudi Arabia (the actual leader of OPEC) offered to increase production.

April 05 | EUR / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The euro / dollar pair opened today directly above the weekly pivot level, then after a small upward wave broke it from top to bottom, testing the DS1 resistance, turned sharply and moved to growth.

Now buyers of EUR / USD are testing the DR1 level, if successful, one can expect further growth to the 1.1800 level, to the DR2 and WR1 lines, to the area of ​​weekly highs.

When planning new deals, do not forget that trades today are held in small volumes and unexpected bursts of volatility and false breakouts of levels are possible.

Daily Pivot - 1.1765;
Daily Resistance 1 - 1.1782, DR2 - 1.1802, DR3 - 1.1819;
Daily Support 1 - 1.1744, DS2 - 1.1727, DS3 - 1.1707.

Weekly Pivot - 1.1752;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.1802, WR2 - 1.1842, WR3 - 1.1891;
Weekly Support 1 - 1.1712, WS2 - 1.1663, WS3 - 1.1622.
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  #490  
Old 06-04-2021, 20:37
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April 06 | USD / JPY technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The pair US dollar against the Japanese yen started today trading under the daily and weekly pivot levels, then crossed them from the bottom up, but then turned around and moved to a decline.

The price of USD / JPY rewritten the low since March 29 at 109.666, having tested the DS1 and WS1 levels.

The pair is decreasing due to the general weakening of the American currency amid rising yields on government securities and US stock markets.

Daily Pivot - 110.289;
Daily Resistance 1 - 110.621, DR2 - 111.078, DR3 - 111.410;
Daily Support 1 - 109.832, DS2 - 109.500, DS3 - 109.043.

Weekly Pivot - 110.324;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 111.278, WR2 - 111.915, WR3 - 112.869;
Weekly Support 1 - 109.687, WS2 - 108.733, WS3 - 108.096.
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  #491  
Old 07-04-2021, 14:27
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USD / CHF. 07.04 | Correction to line EMA 21

The US Dollar / Swiss currency pair dropped by about 600 points in yesterday's trading, to the 0.9300 resistance level, reinforced by the 21-day exponential moving average line - EMA 21.

Today, the USD / CHF price has renewed its minimum since March 23, 2020 at 0.9282, trying to gain a foothold below the 0.9300 level. If sellers push through the indicated resistance, I expect a further decline to the level of 0.9200 and below, to the point of convergence of the EMA 60 and EMA 200 lines. In case of a rebound, a new upward wave.

I will watch the price for the appearance of the key level 0.9300 and the appearance of additional signals to enter the market.

GBP / USD. 07.04 | "Rails" from the level 1.3900

The Pound Sterling / US Dollar currency pair formed a "rails" pattern on the chart with yesterday's daily candlestick, based on the resistance level of 1.3900, giving a signal to sell.

The price of GBP / USD has renewed its maximum since March 19 at 1.3918, after which it turned around and moved to a decline. Perhaps we saw a false breakout of the 1.3900 level and the pair will return to the movement within the downtrend.

It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the price to fix below the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.
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  #492  
Old 08-04-2021, 16:03
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EUR / USD. 08.04 | "Pin bar" from the level 1.1900

The EUR / USD currency pair has formed a pin-bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the resistance level of 1.1900, giving a signal to sell.

At yesterday's trading, the EUR / USD price has renewed its maximum since March 23, 2020 at 1.1914. This week, the US dollar is under pressure, which allowed the pair to correct to the previously broken level of 1.1900.

Apparently, the correction is coming to an end and the pair is ready to continue moving within the downtrend. It makes sense to take a closer look at the sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the breakdown of the EMA 21 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart.

April 08 | GBP / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The pound to the US dollar at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since March 31 at around 1.3718.

The price of GBP / USD has been moving in a sideways channel between the WS1 levels and the daily pivot level all day. Over the past two days, the pair has dropped by 1600 points, and today it went into correction.

It is more likely that the downward trend will continue. A signal to enter the market can be the price fixing below the WS1 level.

Daily Pivot - 1.3766;
Daily Resistance 1 - 1.3809, DR2 - 1.3882, DR3 - 1.3925;
Daily Support 1 - 1.3694, DS2 - 1.3651, DS3 - 1.3578.

Weekly Pivot - 1.3794;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.3882, WR2 - 1.3940, WR3 - 1.4029;
Weekly Support 1 - 1.3736, WS2 - 1.3647, WS3 - 1.3589.

Monthly Pivot - 1.3821.
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