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  #1  
Old 14-09-2016, 09:02
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USD/СAD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart 13.09.2016


General Analysis
On Monday the Canadian dollar continued to trade in a narrow range without significant volatility. The last three trading days passed in the corridor of 150 points (1.2820-1.3110).

The Canadian against the US dollar (USD/CAD) currency pair continued to grow despite all the expectations for the beginning of a correction. Currently the potential for further growth persists in case of a rebound from the resistance line at 1.3850.

The target of the correction will be in an area close to the level 1.2950. From there we can expect a new attempt at growing with a rebound from the support line. Breaking through the support line will be a signal to change your trading decisions and start looking down.

The RSI is in the neutral zone and does not provide any essential signals.
The MACD shows movement above the zero line and continues to rise, confirming the presence of the upward trend on the chart.

The Next Few Days
In this way, we expect a correction in case of a rebound from the support line at 1.3180 with an increase to 1.3600.

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Old 06-04-2017, 12:04
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Tesla CFDs Review & Forecast
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  #3  
Old 07-04-2017, 12:58
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USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

The rates of the USD/SEK is in the frames of upward trend. Dollar continues also to strengthen against the Krone, this week. It should be noted about unusually high volatility for this currency pair. Positively impacted the dollar a strong statistics from the USA this week. Employment in the agricultural sector increased to 263К against forecasted 187К. The number of applications for unemployment allowance dropped significantly to 234 thousand. It's been predicted reductions the number of applications from 258 to 250 thousands. In addition, received information about the reduction of the trade deficit: from - 44,8 - up-to -43,6. Also, it has been noticed the FED representatives, who said that current situation in the US economy is not only allows to increase the interest rate, but need it in the near future.
As for the Sweden, the market has not received new information that could affect the value of the Swedish Krona. At the moment there are only data for February. The most significant of them are increased volume of orders in industry by 12% and the growth of industrial production at 4.1% in February, year-on-year. Trade balance has been fixed at almost zero value, and in the period December 2016 - February 2017 amounted -0.6 billion SEK.
At this moment the most optimal can be the deals on the trend, which in the medium term can generate some profit. We can expect achieving the level 9.05. Oscillator MACD also show potential to growth. Though probability of a price correction remains high, but opening the short deals, seems less promising at the moment.
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  #4  
Old 11-04-2017, 12:48
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The GBPCAD in Crossroads & H4 Chart

When you take a look at daily chart for the GBPCAD currency pair, you will see that we have the last 3 candles are bearish candles which led the pair to 1.6513 the lowest level in two weeks after it recorded the highest 1.6798 in this month and for minutes ago the CPI released from the UK and came as the previous one at 2.3% and better than the forecasting figure at 2.2%, after this news the GBPCAD rose more than 55 pips to trade now around 1.6560.



The pair is trading inside a wedge since last November and I think it's the time for the breaking, when we look at the pair on smaller time frame like H4 we see the pair touched the lowest level and we can't predict now it will break it or will back to rise again, the Stochastic indicator is in oversold levels it means we can buy the pair from here.

The Next Few Days

From this analysis on daily and h4 chart we have to wait for a bullish candle on H4 chart and buy the pair and place our take profit at 1.6650 at the resistance level and around the SMA and the next target at 1.6760, but if the pair didn’t form a bullish candle and broke the wedge down we can sell it and keep our target at 1.6300.
We have to be careful in the upcoming days regarding hot news like the overnight rate and monetary policy from Canada in addition to BOC press conference.
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  #5  
Old 14-04-2017, 13:12
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AUD/CAD: review and forecast

The upward trend of the AUDCAD chart, which steadily continued amid decreasing of oil prices and other factors, is in the risk to be completed. Rising of oil prices and strengthening the USD allowed the canadian currency to strengthened amid disappointing statistics on the economy of Australia. The support line has been broken and greatly displaced down. So, now we can see that the downtrend is formed, though it's early to talk that current upward trend is over. It can be restored next week. Australian currency may take again the initiative, considering that in the near future, the market is not expected any important data on the canadian economy.
At the same time, next week, we expect important information from China and New Zealand, which may impact the value of the Australian currency, as Australia is a leading trade partner of these two countries. Yesterday, the AUD has increased significantly during 1 day - with 0,997 - up to 1,008 CAD thanks to latest information about economy of China, where in March, exports grew 16.4% year-on-year, and imports by 20%. In particular, imports from Australia grew by 74.8%. Also, positively impacted the strengthening of the Australian dollar, strong statistics on a labour market - recent report of the Australian Bureau of statistics show "the employment change" indicator was 60.9 K, against predicted 3 times less 20.
Today, we can't expect some volatility on the market because of Easter's holiday in Australia and Canada. So the the rates of the AUD/CAD probably will come to consolidation phase, but in Monday trading will be more active and probability of a price correction will increase. Oscillators give mixed signals, but in the current situation, low volatility in the market, we can pay attention to the entry points 1,0072 and 1,0085. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, we'd recommend to open the deals to SELL, trusting the Stochastics oscillator.
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  #6  
Old 18-04-2017, 11:36
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The EUR/JPY Review & Forecasting Uptrend


Since March 13 the EURJPY currency pair has changed the direction and became strongly down and it declined since this day till yesterday around 790 pips, so large number or big loss for the pair, but after yesterday close I think the pair finished the bleeding journey and will start rising now, so if you want to make money read all this report till the end.
Firstly, we have so strong support area and the prices gave us the buy signal let's take a look at the chart:

1. The rising wave after the Brexit on June 24 till the top on Dec 15, the pair has reached to 61.8%, and it's the golden correction percentage and expected the pair will rise from there.
the smaller rising wave from Feb 27 till March 13, the pair has reached to 161.8, the golden extension percentage.

2. The rising trend line from July 6 which the prices touched it 4 times before and rose, the prices have touched again this week and expected to rise again.

3. On the daily chart, yesterday candle is bullish engulfing candle which refers to the uptrend.

The Next Few Days

From this analysis on daily we can buy the pair now at 115.95 and keep our first target at 118.20 and the second one at 120.10 especially after we saw the RSI indicator give buy signal and rose to 37 level.
This week we don't have any hot news from the European Union or even from Japan but be careful from any unusual news can change the market direction.
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  #7  
Old 19-04-2017, 12:19
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EUR/SGD: fundamental review and forecast


The rates of the EUR/SGD continue to be in the frames of the downward trend. It was expected that this week volatility on the market will decrease until announcement the results of the elections in France, but yesterday the UK's Prime Minister Teresa May announced about holding of early parliamentary elections. The market reacted positively and the Pound strengthened that had an impact on the value of the EUR. The decision about early elections is perceived positively because it can remove uncertainty on the question of the Brexit. Results of the UK's elections, will show surely if they move towards the exit from the EU or, in case of victory the opponents of Brexit, will finally leave this question. Thus, investors expect from new Parliament clear political and economic course. The Singapore dollar was under the significant pressure since yesterday. Stable macroeconomic statistics were unable to change anything amid significant political events, which directly affect the future of the EU.
At the moment the oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimous in the decision to open a short deals. After a significant price hike amid the news, the rates may continue in the frames of the downtrend. Now the rates consolidated and can go down. So, upon short term trading, the deals to SELL is the best solution. Upon medium-term trading, it is better to wait few days before the election in France. Based on that results we can obtain absolutely new value of the Euro in case of victory of Marie Le Pen, otherwise it will be strengthened for some time.
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  #8  
Old 21-04-2017, 12:59
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NZD/JPY: short market review and forecast

The NZD/JPY rates is in the frames of rapid downward trend. However, the new Zealand dollar had stopped falling and consolidated in the range 76,0 - 76,76 JPY. Yesterday it's been received important statistics related with 2 currencies. Economic statistics from New Zealand, positively impacted the NZD. The consumer price index grew in 2.2% year on year, exceeding forecasts. It is also the highest annual growth rate since 2011. For the 1st quarter of the year the index grew in 1%, slightly exceeding forecasted 0.8% level. At the moment, that was enough to stabilize the exchange rate of the NZD. In a week, the market expects new data about trade balance of New Zealand that may affect the value of the NZD.
On the other hand, the trade balance of Japan, already known, and taking into account seasonal fluctuations, amounted to only 0.17 T, although it was expected that this indicator will be 3 times more, and will be at 0.61. That's disappointed investors, although overall the economy of Japan is at good level. Volume of exports and imports grew, and exceeded predicted forecasted values. This also becomes the main growth factor of the Japanese economy in the future. Investors expect growth by 1% in 2017.
At this moment, the oscillators MACD, Stochastics, the RSI are neutral. It should be noted that since April 10, we can see formation of the flat trend, thought at the moment, it is early to say about ending of the downtrend. There're no enough preconditions for that. You should pay attention to the points of entry 76.75 and 76.2 JPY. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, it is recommended to open the short deals on the trend.
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  #9  
Old 25-04-2017, 13:51
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NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis
Today we would look at the development of the exchange rate between the New Zealand and the American dollars. Previously the pair moved within the 0.6860-6990 frame, but we saw the pair take a bullish turn as it broke above 0.7000 and it even reached the important level of 0.7100. The bullish influence continued in full heat and new heights were reached at the levels of 0.7250-0.7350, which serves as the pair’s sell zone.
The NZD/USD then finally returned to a bearish movement and dropped to 0.6960. This proved to be a weak support, as the pair tends to return to the border of the buy zone 0.6860, where we started. After touching this level the pair began climbing back up from 0.6960.
As the pair seems to be oscillating between these levels, we have opportunities to both buy and sell it at important intervals. Watch out for the pair dropping and also for it rising to 0.7100. This still provides a lot of resistance and the NZD/USD has struggled to overcome it. If it does success, it will likely go up to 0.7250.
At the moment of the publication of this article the pair has retreated to 0.6956 and most indicators agree that this is a strong sell.
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  #10  
Old 26-04-2017, 12:32
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CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

While the Euro has strengthened sharply against the Japanese yen, showing a giant price hike from 116.8 JPY up to 121 JPY based on results of the 1st round of elections in France, while the yen is losing positions against most currencies because it is under the pressure, mainly due to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, the canadian dollar failed to take the initiative and the rates CAD/JPY continues in the frames of downward trend. Though it's strengthened a bit yesterday.
At the moment, the Canadian dollar is under the pressure of many factors, firstly because of the falling in oil prices. The price for black gold fell again, and fell below the psychological point in $ 50. Forecasts here aren't good for the CAD because the United States continues to increase oil production, and President D. Trump supporting it and trying to make conditions for energy companies easier for developing oil extraction on the continental territory in the U.S. and on the shelf. Also, the canadian dollar decreasing in value because D. Trump continues to demand revision of trade relations with its neighbors and contradictions between Canada and the United States becomes more and more serious.
This week is full of important events, and the market will get a lot of macroeconomic statistics, which will affect the rates of CAD/JPY. Today, the market awaits important information about the volume of retail sales in Canada, conference of the President of the United States. Also, tomorrow we'll get the Report of the Bank of Japan about perspectives for Japanese economy, and on Friday we expect data about Canada's GDP, consumer price indices and volume of production in Japan. Therefore, this week, volatility may increase. Probably we can expect for further strengthening of JPY in the frames of current downtrend. The oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimously indicate the good moment to open the deals to SELL, after the price correction, which occurred yesterday.
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Old 03-05-2017, 15:24
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OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

Oil prices continue weakening but the rates are still in the frames of upward trend which began over a year ago. However, the trend is near the completion, and now on the daily chart, you can see signs of the flat trend formation, as the prices from November 2016, keep in the range of 47 - $ 54 per barrel. Support and resistance lines hadn't been broken for all the time. Uncreasing of the drilling rigs in the United States, 15 consecutive week, continue to adversely affect the price of oil. The price of oil reached a minimum level, which for 6 months has been achieved only 2 times.

On the market we can see uncertain situation: on the one hand, OPEC countries are going to continue the agreement “On the reduction of oil production”, and investors believe that it will be done at the next meeting, may 25. On the other hand, the USA abolishes all these efforts with their growth of oil production. Increasing of oil demand will unlikely resolve the issue with the overabundance of oil on the market. Amid this, long-term forecasts of some analysts, in particular experts from Citigroup (NYCE:C) about further increasing the price of oil to $ 65 in the second half of the year, does not seem probable cause oil prices are constantly under the pressure from a number of factors. This week it was the recovery of oil production in Libya, the recession of business activity in China and mentioned before, constant increasing in drilling rigs in the United States. Factors that could unambiguously support the price of oil are not enough, but the situation may change at the end of the month on the results of the OPEC meeting.

At this moment, the entry point to the market we can call the levels of 47.4 and 48.2. The most optimal for the moment we can determine the deals to BUY which can be effective to get the profit on the price correction. MACD, RSI, oscillators partially confirm this. It is most likely that after reaching a new minimum level, the price will move up. Soon investors will focus on the next OPEC meeting, and news from countries-participants of the Agreement “On the reduction of oil production”. It can slightly enhance the price of black gold in the short term.
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  #12  
Old 05-05-2017, 12:14
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USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

USD/SEK becomes one of the most underrated currency pairs on the market, considering very high volatility and predictability. It helps to see how the results of the Presidential elections in France affected the rates. Of course, the main reason for the strengthening of the Swedish Krona, which strengthened against the dollar, was the strengthening of the Euro. Question of the victory of E. Makron is a question of the EU future. Sweden is highly depending on the EU. That's why it happened but the giant price hike from 9.02, to 8.7 SEK surpassed all expectations from the predictable outcome of these elections. Traders who are focused on currency pairs related with Euro - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and others, missed a great opportunity to earn on USD/SEK.
At the moment, the rates consolidated at the level of 8.83 - 8.84 SEK for $ 1. The market is waiting for the unemployment report in the United States. Also, in the evening, we expect the speech of the FED Chairperson Yellen and FOMC members. It can affect the rates and strengthen the dollar. But recently received information about Swedish economy, in particular, increase of the volume of industrial production in 3.8% year on year, the increase in orders for the industry, achieving one of the highest levels over the past 10 years, will not allow the Swedish krona to lose a lot in price. Though the main event is the 2nd round of the French elections, where the victory of E. Makron is obvious for investors. It definitely will lead to further strengthening of the EUR and SEK.
At the moment the rates of the USD/SEK are in the frames of the flat trend but high volatility, which can be seen on the chart since the beginning of this year, makes this trend special: the rates are in a very wide range from 9.07 - up to 8.76 SEK. The most clear the trend can be seen only on the hourly and daily chart. Points of entry can be considered on the levels 8.817 and 8.855. Oscillator MACD is neutral while the Stochastic is showing a signal to open the short deals, which is absolutely right decision upon medium-term trade, considering possible impact of the upcoming elections in France, on the rates of USD/SEK. Upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY, though volatility won't be high today.

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Old 10-05-2017, 11:18
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NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

Situation for the NZD has not changed yet. the rates continue to be in the frames of the downward trend, though it lost its intensity. The dollar continues to strengthen against the NZD, although we can not say that the New Zealand economy is in a bad state. Despite the rising inflation, the country's economy gradually develops and demonstrates growth. However, it does not allow the New Zealand currency to hold against the strong U.S. dollar.

Last week, the dollar strengthened amid the positive statistics about unemployment and the results of the FED meeting, which decided to leave interest rate unchanged, but considering sure growth of the US economy, reducing in unemployment, they plan to do it in June if nothing changes. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike is rated as very high.

At the moment, the rates of the NZD/USD stabilized in the range of 0.688 - 0,694 USD. We can also say that these levels are also good entry points to the market. Until the next day, volatility will be low because investors are waiting for the meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and their decision to change the rate. Now it's 1.75%. Investors don't expect for the rate changes just because the RBNZ in March, said that they don't not plan to change the rate until the 2019. Though continued weakening of the NZD can make them to change their decision because the rate increase would strengthen the NZD.

Oscillators are neutral for the moment and in this situation, the best solution is to open the deals on the trend. We can say that also, considering that there're no any real reasons for the trend change and strengthening of the NZD in the near future. Therefore, the deals to SELL can be the most effective now, upon the short and medium-term trading.

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Old 12-05-2017, 12:21
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AUD/CAD: review and forecast

The rates of the AUD/CAD continues in the frames of the upward trend. The canadian dollar remains under the pressure of low oil prices. Volatility for this currency pair remains very high. So, in early may, disappointing statistics about economy of Australia and China, have led to significant falling of the AUD value. During 1 day it has been lost 2 CAD cents. It was influence of the data about the trade balance of Australia. Investors expected the growth of the surplus to 3.4 billion while it was just 3.1 billion; also disappointed the value of the business activity index in the services sector in China.
By the end of next week, the volatility in the market can be decreased. The market don't expect any important data until next Friday. Then, the market will receive information about retail sales and consumer prices in Canada, for April. A day earlier, also expect information on employment in Australia in April. It should also be noted that this month will be the summit of the OPEC and volatility will be gradually increasing together with the oil prices. So it can strengthen the CAD because it is expected that on the upcoming summit countries-exporters will extend the agreement about Reduction of the oil extraction. Therefore, oil prices will rise for some time, but countries which didn't join the agreement, mainly the US, unlikely will let oil to rise significantly in price for a long period because if prices increase the USA increasing the volume of oil production, adversely affecting the market.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment, but considering perspectives of oil prices growth in the near future, and consequently the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the optimal solution now is to open the deals to SELL upon medium term trading. Upon the short-term trading, it is also possible to open the deals on the trend.

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Old 17-05-2017, 11:10
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EUR/SGD: review and forecast

Strengthening of the Euro, which began since the 1st round of elections in France, continues now. Political risks for the EU has been decreased and future of the EU does not cause serious doubts among investors anymore. Good economic indicators in the Eurozone, allow the Euro to grow, against most of currencies including the SGD. So we can see that on the chart of the EUR/SGD was formed by the rapid upward trend which may continue in the future. The value of the Euro reached the price 1.5455 SGD which is the highest level for the last 12 months.This week, the Euro also strengthened significantly against the USD, reaching the highest for the 6 months level.

Obtained data on GDP matched with expectations of investors, as well as recently received data about the consumer price index, so they continue to invest in Euro. At the same time, the Singapore dollar is losing value and can't find an incentive to strengthen. Received today data about Domestic Exports of Non Oil (NODX) in Singapore decreased to - 0.7 % yoy while investors were expecting for 12.4% growth considering that last month NODX volumes increased up to 16.5% yoy It should be noted that fall of exports, has been fixed for the first time in 6 months, so the market took it negatively.
New upward trend will probably continue, but in the near future we can expect for price correction. Oscillators MACD, Stochastics, RSI, unanimously indicate a good moment to open the short deals against the trend. Though upon medium-term trading it is better to open the deals on the trend.

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Old 19-05-2017, 11:48
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NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

Since the beginning of the year, the rates of the NZD/JPY continued in the frames of the rapid downtrend, however, the situation began to change and the current trend is under threat to change. On the chart has traced the new upward trend. It is too early to speak about the final change, but probability remains high. Both support line and resistance line have been removed. Though if the resistance line shifted in the downward direction, the support line has been reversed up.
So, Why the trend has begun to change its direction? In the beginning of the month, the Japanese yen came under the pressure because of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The conflict at any moment could go to the active zone and Japan could be involved in this conflict. So, the yen has lost positions against most currencies. Amid the geopolitical risks for Japan, the new Zealand dollar has been supported by positive data about retail volume which rose in the 1st quarter of 2017 in 1.5% against the forecast of 0.9%. It was the sharpest increase in retail trade since the second quarter of 2016. In addition, the number of tourists in April, continues to grow, increasing by 20% year on year. Strengthening of the NZD also contributes by the rising commodity prices, including oil.
Nevertheless, the Japanese yen managed to take the initiative again due to yesterday's data about the Japanese economy. Japan's GDP for the first quarter of 2017 increased by 0.5%, coinciding with the forecasts of investors, and in year on year increasing was 2.2%, against forecasted 1.7%. In addition, second month in a row, orders for machinery have increased, although investors expected more than actual + 1.4% growth.
At the moment, the value of NZD consolidated in the range of 76.7 - 77.1 JPY. This levels are good entry points to the market. At the moment, the most optimal can be the deals to BUY, considering that today the market is expecting for the data about the milk price index. It will be published today and can support the NZD in the short term perspective. MACD, RSI oscillators confirm this and also signal a good moment for opening the deals to BUY. As for the medium-term trading, next week we'll get the data about the trade balance and export volumes - both from Japan and New Zealand. So, both currencies can get support and go up in price.
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Old 24-05-2017, 11:38
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CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


The rates of the CAD/JPY for a long time was in the frames of the rapid downward trend, but now the situation can be changed: the trend had lost its intensity and the canadian dollar strengthened against the yen. Perhaps we can see beginning of a new trend. Actually it has been formed and we can see that resistance line has been shifted, and the support line had turned up. However, given that strengthening of the CAD, is mainly based on the increasing of oil prices, which continues to grow amid upcoming summit of OPEC this Friday, crude oil prices may resume a declining for the next few weeks. And this will happen in any case - if OPEC countries extend the agreement On the reduction of oil and in case if not extended. The reason is that extending of the agreement by the OPEC does not solve all questions about the overabundance of oil on the market. The United States and Canada can negate all effect, and higher prices will only motivate for further increasing of oil production. this has been proven in practice.
The Japanese yen wasn't able to resist successfully the onslaught of the Canadian dollar due to disappointing data from Japan this week: trade balance of Japan was 0.1 T in April, although investors expected level of 0.25 T, the volume of exports grew by only 7.5% against the expected growth of 7.8% and
the volume of imports increased by 15%, which is more than expected but in the future it is a threat to the trade balance of the country. Next week important data that could support JPY is not expected at all.
Thus, we can say that in the short term, the CAD will strengthen against many currencies due to the increasing of oil prices. It's happening now - oil prices on Monday achieved a 5 week high and continue to grow, so the deals to Buy will be most effective at this moment upon short term trading.

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Old 26-05-2017, 12:22
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XAU/USD (GOLD): Short review and forecast

This week prices for Gold continue to grow. The main factor of growth, of course, was the terrorist attack in Manchester, which forced investors to turn to less risky assets. In addition, the growth of prices continued amid the weak dollar and based on the results of the FOMC Committee meeting, where was designated plans of the US Central Bank to reduce the balance before the end of this year. The FED, which had planned a rate increase this year 2 times, began doubt about necessity for further growth of the rate due to weak economic indicators and slowdown of the economy, although the probability of a rate hike in June remains high. Of course it's also impacted the value of GOLD. Political instability in the United States and possibility of beginning a full and protracted political crisis also, contributes the growth.
So, there're a lot of factors which say about further increasing of prices. We can say for sure that the upward trend will continue and increase its intensity in the near future. It should be noted that the rates was carried out with high volatility in a wide range, but now the situation changes and the upward trend is more stable, which is clearly seen on the chart.
Thus, we can say that at the moment, the deals to BUY are more effective. Oscillator MACD confirms this.

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  #19  
Old 31-05-2017, 14:18
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OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

Oil prices are gradually decreasing. Extension of the Pact on "Reducing of oil extraction" does not change the situation, as it was expected. OPEC's attempt to impact the market with the help of this agreement will be doomed, amid news about increasing of drilling activity in the USA, 19th week in a row, and increasing of oil production in Libya which haven't joint the agreement on "Reducing of oil extraction". At the same time, in order for achieving the balance on the market and oil prices growth, it is necessary to reduce oil extraction by all countries-manufacturers but this does not happen, and the reserves of crude oil on the market are close to record levels. Thus, the supply continues to exceed demand on the market.
Despite the dominant number of negative signals on the market, the rates of oil continues in the frames of the upward trend, though it is solely by inertia, and it's not based on objective factors. There're no perspectives for further growth at the moment. Most likely, in the near future, the upward trend will be changed to the flat trend which has already been formed. Lines of support and resistance can be fixed at the levels of 44.5 and $ 54 a barrel mark CL/WTI.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment. Today investors are waiting for the data about oil stocks from the American petroleum Institute. Investors expect a reduction of oil reserves that may support oil prices a bit. Therefore, upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY. But upon medium-term trading, the deals to SELL can be more effective.

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Old 02-06-2017, 11:41
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USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

Since the beginning of April, the rates of USD/SEK continue in the frames of the downtrend. While the U.S dollar is under the pressure due to political scandals of the administration of D. Trump and slowdown of US economic growth, the Swedish Krona continues to strengthen, and reached the best level for the last 9 months - 8.68 SEK. against the dollar. But weakening of the dollar isn't the only reason that caused the strengthening of the crown. Also impacted the end of political uncertainty in the EU, and optimal economic indicators in Sweden. Published data showed GDP growth in Sweden to 0.4 % in Q1 2017. Investors expect more significant growth at 0.9%, but given the weakening dollar, it was enough to continue strengthening.
Probably the downtrend will continue this month. The U.S. dollar, however, can be strengthened for some period. In particular, published data about employment in the US, encouraged investors, and it is stopped the weakening of the USD and consolidated the rates. According to the ADP's company report , the number of jobs created in may increased by 253 thousand, although it was expected only by 185 thousand places. Today we expect the official data from the Ministry of labour, which likely will confirm the statistics from the ADP. Good data on the labor market may influence the FED's decision to raise the rate. So investors are focused on this data and waiting for it with high attention.
Thus, in the near future, we can expect a price correction and upon short-term trading, the most effective will be the deals to Buy. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time for the long trades. We can also designate the points of entry at the levels 8.671 and 8.705 SEK, breakout of which will be signalized the exit from the consolidation phase. Special attention should be paid to the level 8.671, achieving of which will be signalized about continuation of the trend, and can be a good signal to open the short deals.
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Old 07-06-2017, 11:51
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NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

Starting from May 2017, the downward trend has been changed by rapid upward trend. The New Zealand dollar reached the highest level 0.72 USD over the last 3 months and continues to go up. The main reason for the rapid growth is a weak dollar, which continues to be under the pressure due to investigations about influence of Russia on elections in the United States. In particular, this Thursday, the former head of the FBI, James Comey, will be reporting in Thursday for the Committee of the U.S. Congress. Investors fear it can impact negatively on the administration of D. Trump , as well as D. Trump. This is why the dollar loses in value against all currencies.

But not only the weakening of the dollar affected the rate of NZD/USD. Also impacted received statistics about economy's most important trading partner of New Zealand - Australia.
This week, the reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and predicts economic growth for the next few years. Meanwhile, GDP data for Australia, has pleased investors: growth amounted to 0.3% in Q1 2017, while the market expected growth to 0.2%. Also, business inventories in Australia increased by 1.2 % in Q1 2017, exceeding market expectations of 0.5% growth. This is the strongest growth since 2012.
The MACD indicates a good time for short deals. The RSI confirms this, pointing out that the rates are in the overbought zone, and high probability of a price correction. But considering fundamental factors upon medium-term trading, it is better to open the deals on the trend. Peak growth has not been achieved yet, and expected for the next week data about volumes of retail sales and GDP of New Zealand, may support the NZD.
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Old 09-06-2017, 12:14
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AUD/CAD: review and forecast

Сanadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4.
Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper.
Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.
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Old 14-06-2017, 12:42
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AUD/CAD: review and forecast

Сanadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4.
Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper.
Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.

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Old 16-06-2017, 11:54
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NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

On the NZD/JPY chart, we can see upward trend which had been formed just a month ago. Now it is becoming more intense. Especially, the Japanese yen lost in value today when the Bank of Japan revealed that they will not to change its monetary policy, keeping the stimulus program unchanged. The Bank of Japan also stated that won't raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Although it has the reasons for the rate change and tightening of monetary policy considering that GDP growth for five consecutive quarters, good situation in labor market, despite the weak wage growth. But the Bank of Japan stated that they are not interested in strengthening of the yen because the weak yen will have a positive impact on the economy and unemployment level.
The new Zealand dollar managed to strengthen against the yen weakening. Although this week was received contradictory statistics affecting the NZD value: GDP growth was weaker than expected in both quarterly and YoY, achieving +0.5% and +2.5%, respectively. But the index of business activity PMI exceeded expectations and amounted 58.5, which is the highest level since January 2016. Also, contributed the rapid strengthening of the NZD impressive data on the employment market in Australia, which is the main trading partner of New Zealand: unemployment rate in may was 5.5% against expected 5.7% and indicator of the "Level of change in employment” was 47K in May which is in 4.7 times more than expected.

Thus, strengthening of the NZD has led to the breaking and moving of the resistance line. Oscillators MACD, Stochastics, RSI unanimously indicate that the rates are in the overbought zone at the moment. So, probability of a price correction in the near future is very high. We can only agree with that because the short deals seems would be the most effective at the moment.

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Old 27-06-2017, 16:34
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GBP/NZD Technical Outlook after the Financial Stability Report

Minutes ago we listened to BOE governor Mark Carney’s speech about the financial stability in the United Kingdom. He said that the financial stability associated with the outcomes or the results of Brexit and the consumer credit has far outpaced household income over last year, and those comments led the pound currency to decline with 20-30 pips against all major currencies and to rise back again.

Today we would discuss the GBP/NZD pair which has lost more than 1400 pips since May 22 after breaking the small channel at the top. In our last report we recommended selling the pair at 1.7960 and it achieved our targets at 1.7932 and 1.7465 for more than 490 pips.

The pair is trading now at 1.7430, close to the uptrend line which has 4 bottoms. We are waiting for another retest to buy the pair. The Stochastic indicator lines are crossed together at the level 35.

The Next Few Days

From this analysis of the daily chart we have to wait for a bullish candle at these levels or a little lower on the daily or H4 chart in order to buy the pair. We should keep our first target at 1.7765 and the second one at 1.8150, but if the prices break the trend line and settle down we have to sell the pair to the bottom 1.6830.

This week is overwhelmed with hot events like Carney’s speech tomorrow and the current account on Friday from the UK. Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics/gbp...ability-report
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Old 30-06-2017, 16:06
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The Euro on the Rise

The European currency seems to be on the rise, enjoying a positive economic outlook.
Here is something we didn’t think we’d be saying so soon: the euro is having a good time.
The currency of the European Union went through some serious hardship over the past decade – it suffered immensely in the global recession of 2008, the debt crisis in some EU countries such as Greece and Portugal, which eventually led to further internal conflicts and more trouble for Europe’s unity as the United Kingdom announced its intention to leave and the fear of losing more members spread as Italy and France held elections recently.
However, this bleak phase for the euro seems to be approaching an end. Despite small daily fluctuations, which occur naturally when there’s global activity on the financial markets, the euro was able to climb up and is currently in its strongest levels since 2011, according to Reuters.
Part of the reason why this is a little surprising is the fact that the European Central Bank, the EU’s organ for monetary policy, has been implementing a stimulus program to boost the European economy by encouraging inflation, something that logically decreases the value of the euro versus other major currencies. It has already been two years since the program began and investors as well as the ECB itself initially expected to continue with this approach for a few years. Nevertheless, recent data from the European Union shows the economy is doing quite well, which prompted ECB President Mario Draghi to show willingness to change the course of the current policy as early as September this year.


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Old 04-07-2017, 15:02
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis & Chart

A surprisingly stable euro is dominating the pair - we expect further bullishness.

Today we’d look into the EUR/USD trading instrument. The pair has had an interesting few months - 2017 began with widespread speculation that between the weakening euro and the strengthening dollar we’d meet in the middle and see perfect parity before the year’s end. However, this hasn’t been the case and lately we’ve seen the opposite, though in milder terms - a slight strengthening of the euro versus a somewhat weaker dollar.

Even though the euro lost some of its momentum over the weekend, our outlook for it remains positive. We might see some gains today as the markets in the United States are on a break for the Independence Day celebrations.

The euro is very close to the psychological level of 1.14. We have been getting data about the European economy that’s been consistently positive, including the most recent PMI report.

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Old 05-07-2017, 15:19
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USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

Riksbank supported the SEK while the USD was losing positions amid political tensions and investors' worries about the rate change by the FED.

The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although in the period from May 19 until June 27 the trend changed to a flat one. It seemed that the downward trend had been finally completed at the beginning of July. However, market volatility has suddenly increased, and the downward trend has been restored.
This week there were no significant factors that would affect the USD/SEK rates. The main factor that influence the value of the USD in recent weeks remains the political tension in the United States and investors' worries about the future for the FED rate hikes due to weak economic data in the United States. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials maintain the stance that the rates should be raised more before the end of 2017. Nevertheless, investors suppose that the Federal Reserve may delay increasing the interest rate if the situation in the U.S. economy changes in a positive way and if political tensions in the US grow. Based on this, the dollar lost positions against most currencies while investors prefer safe-haven instruments such as JPY and Gold.

Read more here: https://superforex.com/analytics/usd...orecast-050717

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  #29  
Old 06-07-2017, 14:18
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We forecast new growth for the USD/JPY and good buy opportunities.

Today we direct our attention to the USD/JPY currency pair. Yesterday the USD/JPY showed significant progress and was quite active during the day, but it eventually failed to overcome the 113.60 level and retracted. Still, we believe the pair would likely continue to test its resistances and make space for further upward movement, as long as the pair keeps trading above the level of 113.

To predict future highs, we can reliably use the guidance of the nearby resistance levels for the USD/JPY - we have resistances at 113.19, 113.41, and 113.63. We believe that overcoming these resistance levels is the most likely course for the pair as it stands now.

Still, it’s good to be prepared for the alternative scenario as well. On the downside, we have several nearby support levels such as 112.75, 112.50, and 112. If the first support is breached, likely we’d see the pair play around the other two supports as well.

At this point the movements of the USD/JPY largely depend on trader sentiment and market behavior. The level of 114 stands before us as a psychological barrier, and if the pair is pushed beyond it, we can see it grow further up to 115 even.

As of the moment of this article’s publication the USD/JPY is trading around the first level of resistance at 113.19. Most technical indicators agree that the best course of action is a strong buy stance.

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Old 07-07-2017, 14:34
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A New Hope for the Pound

The United Kingdom's currency seems to have finally slowed its descent - could it be ready to start recovering?

The future of the British currency became quite uncertain the weeks leading up to the Brexit vote last June, then slumped after the results came through. Now it seems that for the first time in 2017 investors are changing their views on the pound for the better. However, this pertains to the pound vs the dollar; where the euro is concerned, the situation is different.

This discrepancy could be easily explained. For one thing, investors expected a lot more from the US economy, mostly riding on Donald Trump’s promised goals as president, especially his vow to bring economic growth up to 3%. This is easier said than done, as we’ve seen. Lukewarm reports from the United States, as well as Trump’s general struggle to enact any kind of policy successfully have made investors lower their expectations. We’ve even seen the dollar drop against all major currencies in recent weeks.

The situation is pretty much the opposite with the eurozone. The European Central Bank is in the midst of a massive stimulus program to encourage healthy inflation and spending. Even though the expectation was to see it continue a bit longer, the program is already paying off and surprisingly good economic data from all around Europe has prompted the ECB to admit they may start phasing out the program before the year’s end and turn to a more hawkish policy on the euro. In addition, fears of further political unrest in the EU have been calmed by Macron’s victory in the French presidential elections in April. We still have to see what would happen in the German general elections this fall, but things seem promising for Angela Merkel. It was previously feared she might not gather enough support but after a successful equal marriage rights vote last week it seems likely that she would stay in power.


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Old 11-07-2017, 15:02
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GBP/USD Technical Overview

We predict a moderate volatility for the pair, with a bias in favor of the USD.

Today we would take a detailed look at the GBP/USD currency pair. It has been exhibiting bearish symptoms for a while now, failing to overcome the strong resistance region around 1.30.

The pound, of course, is still low. It dropped dramatically last year after the Brexit vote, and although its descent has slowed down, it’s still far away from its highs in 2015. Today we expect some news from the United Kingdom regarding interest rates (which the UK is expected to increase soon) and other issues pertaining to monetary policy. These could potentially give the GBP a long-awaited boost versus major currencies. Still, there is a lot of political uncertainty troubling the United Kingdom. The UK is in the first stages of Brexit negotiations with the European Union, a time that calls for strong leadership - but instead, British media are littered with speculation about the possible resignation of Theresa May. An inability to form a strong government with a well-supported Prime Minister would not bode well for the British pound.

On the other hand, last week produced some positive economic statistics about the United States, which gave the dollar a push. We’re also awaiting a new job openings report today, which is supposed to show a decrease from before. There will also be an important announcement by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates (there are more increases expected, but their possible dates seem unpredictable to traders right now).

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Old 12-07-2017, 14:23
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AUD/CAD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The CAD continues strengthening against the AUD. Investors expect an increase of the interest rate today.

The rates of the AUD/CAD continue in the frames of a downtrend. Last month the Canadian dollar successfully withstood the pressure due to low oil prices and strengthened against the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar continued decreasing even after the positive statistics about the trade balance, although this did support the AUD for a few days. Last week the RBA refused to raise the interest rate. Despite the positive economic data, the RBA supposes that the goals of its stimulus program haven't been achieved yet. In particular, the RBA is concerned about the situation on the labour market.


This week we do not expect important information about the AUD. The only thing that can have an impact on the value of the AUD is information about the Chinese economy. As for the CAD, we expect important information. In particular, this evening investors expect a decision from the Bank of Canada regarding raising the interest rate. Given the recent information about the PMI index and positive reports about the employment market, investors are sure that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rate by 25 pips - up to 0.75%, for the first time since 2010. Thus, Canada will become the first country after the United States to tighten its monetary policy amid the good economic situation in the country. Another reason for the further strengthening of the CA, is a growth in oil prices, which have increased due to information about a reduction in the reserves of WTI crude oil by 2.1 million barrels for a week in the main oil storage reservoir of the United States. In addition, it was reported that OPEC can limit the volume of oil extraction in Nigeria and Libya, which were free from obligations to reduce the volume of oil production with the current agreement.

In this situation, the optimal decision is to open the deals on the trend. The Stochastic oscillator also gives a signal for short deals indicating the rates in the overbought zone.

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  #33  
Old 14-07-2017, 15:30
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Qatar Crisis Continues

Qatar is still under blockade by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and two other countries. Can Qatar's economy weather this storm?

A few weeks ago we shed a little bit of light on the current diplomatic crisis in Qatar. It has been essentially blockaded by its neighbouring countries on the grounds of supposedly promoting terrorism and destabilizing the Middle East. This has made it slightly more complicated for Qatar to import and export goods, but as we learned from Qatar’s finance minister, there was no need to worry too much. Or is there?

The countries opposing Qatar are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain. They made a list of demands that aim at making Qatar work for better stability in the region. However, the blockaded state has refused to comply, stating that the demands may constitute a violation of international law, reports CNN. In retaliation, the four countries which cut ties with Qatar have showed a determination to step up their measures and increase pressure on Qatar, though the meaning of this is yet unclear.

Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics/qatar-crisis-continues

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  #34  
Old 17-07-2017, 16:08
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EUR/JPY Technical Outlook before the Rate Decisions
The BOJ's policy rate will push the Yen to rise a little.
This week the markets are looking forward to the rate decisions of two important banks - the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. This will cause a huge volatility. We will take a look at the instrument most likely to be affected, the EUR/JPY currency pair, and hunt for good opportunities for this week.

The EUR/JPY pair recorded its highest levels in 17 months at 130.75 and then it bounced back to trade now at 129.00. It declined last week on the release front as the Eurozone Final CPI edged down to 1.3%, matching the forecast. On Tuesday Germany and the eurozone will release ZEW Economic Sentiments.

The pair broke an important support level at the moving average 50 and it’s trading now at an important key area at the upside trend line. We predict it will break the trend line and decline further but we have to wait to see where this candle will close exactly.
So, what can we do in the next hours?

As we mentioned above, we will wait for a candle close below the trend line below 128.70 and sell the pair, keeping our first target at 127.50 and the second one at 126.20; that's in case the pair breaks the second trend line.

This week we have to be careful in our trades because we have important events which will cause high volatility in the market such as a decision from the BOJ regading the policy rate and the press conference for Kuroda, as well as the minimum Bid Rate for the European Central Bank on Thursday.
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Old 19-07-2017, 15:03
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USD/MXN: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The MXN has achieved its April 2016 level, while the USD is losing positions due to the failure of the health care reform.

The rates of the USD/MXN pair continue in the frames of the downtrend which has lasted for more than six months, when the Mexican peso fell as a result of the presidential elections in the USA and D. Trump's anti-immigration protectionist policies openly directed against Mexico. Despite several factors against the Mexican peso, such as perspectives for lowering oil prices and the worsened relations between the U.S. and Mexico, the peso managed to recover its lost positions.


This week the MXN reached the level from April 2016 amid the rising oil prices and the failure of the health care reform in the United States. This points to the inefficiency and weakness of Donald Trump's administration. The failure of the health care reform threatens the further policies of Donald Trump and decreases his popularity in the United States. The US dollar was also negatively impacted by the cautious rhetoric of Yellen about a further tightening the FED policy. Also, amid disappointing data about inflation and retail sales, investors began to doubt whether we would see a further increasing of the interest rate this year.

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  #36  
Old 21-07-2017, 15:23
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The Euro Back to 2015 Highs

The euro continues to take on the USD in a confident bullish movement.

This week we turn our eyes to Europe once more. The economic climate in the European Union seems to be quite heated these days: many reports coming from all around the eurozone are flooding in, and investors are paying close attention to the euro, particularly in the context of the much weaker dollar we’ve been seeing these days.

Earlier today the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters was published. The survey, which is quite important to the ECB and whose results always figure into the decision-making process of the ECB, showed that while there is stable economic growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, the inflation rate still remains relatively low. As we’ve mentioned before on our blog, the ECB is currently in the midst of a massive stimulus program whose goal is to boost inflation to a healthy level. It appears this level still hasn’t been achieved, despite investors’ hopes that the ECB might be satisfied with the current progress and start turning towards more hawkish policies.

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Old 24-07-2017, 15:56
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USD/JPY Technical Overview ahead of the Fed Rate

The USD/JPY pair returned back to the channel and we expect further lows.

Last week the US Dollar was weaker against most of the majors, especially since there were few economic calendar events from the USA and investors focused instead on Washington’s rising political tensions. However, this week is different and trading will depend on fundamentals with the release of consumer confidence, the Fed’s July rate statement, and the preliminary second quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

The USD/JPY currency pair returned back to the price channel again after breaking it upward. We took a buy position and our first target was at 114.32 - the prices already hit it and returned again, then the pair broke the moving average last Friday. It has a key support area at 110.23, 50 pips down. The MACD indicator gave us the sell signal after the columns appeared below the zero level. It’s expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged this month and won’t increase it, so we predict the pair will decline further.

The Next Few Days

After we saw the prices back inside the channel again we can sell the pair from the current levels at 110.75 and keep our first target at 110.23, with a second one at 108.34 at this year’s low. Nevertheless, if the prices return back to 112.00 again we will change our vision to be bullish.

This week is overwhelming with much hot news from the United States which hold the potential to cause high volatility on the market: the CB Consumer Confidence, the FOMC statement, and the GDP for the second quarter.

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  #38  
Old 26-07-2017, 16:12
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Default Re: Technical Analysis by SuperForex

XAU/USD: Short Review and Forecast
The market has been extremely volatile the last few months. Investors are waiting for the results of the FED meeting. The GOLD has good chances to increase in price if the FED doesn't change the rate.

The Gold has been extremely volatile for the last few months. On the H4 chart we can see a large number of different micro trends that continually replace each other every month. This has created uncertainty on the market. Volatility is higher than ever: in just three months, the price varied in the range of 1216-1294 dollars. Overall, the trend looks flat, but with a huge range.


This week, the price achieved a monthly maximum, but decreased a bit because investors are awaiting the results from the Federal Reserve meeting held today. The Fed meeting will show if the interest rate is going to be increased or not. Investors suppose that interest rates are unlikely to be increased before December. Inflation in the United States was lower than expected for the fourth month in a row. Other economic indicators also do not impress the market. The Gold also has been rising in price due to the failure of the health care reform and the weakening of the USD.

Given that the Federal Reserve rate hike is unlikely in the near future, we expect a further increasing of Gold value, after the price correction. This also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the current rates are in the oversold zone. A further increase of the Gold's value will lead to the formation of a steady uptrend. Therefore, the deals to BUY can be considered as the most effective.

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  #39  
Old 28-07-2017, 16:39
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How Healthcare Failed the Dollar

Amid the ruins of the Republicans' attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare, the USD is the true victim.

While we have been focusing on other regions in our most recent articles, one detail often popped up in our analysis: the fact that the American dollar has weakened. Why did that happen? That’s what we’ll try to find out today.

Now, if you take a look back to 2015 and 2016, you’d see the dollar overtaking most major currencies, making consistent gains as the US economy was doing splendidly. The USD experienced volatility around the 2016 Presidential elections, but after Trump’s win investors decided to back him up in hopes that his protectionist policies and focus on infrastructure would boost the economy. As a result, the dollar ended 2016 at record highs and at the turn of 2017 people were already talking of possible parity with the euro, with various temporal prognoses, most commonly by the year’s end.

However, we are now seven months into 2017 and six months into Trump’s presidency, and things are not looking good. Trump has failed repeatedly to find support for his policy-making, and save for his promise to revive the coal industry, he hasn’t achieved much from what was on his campaign’s agenda. Investors have been continuously changing their expectations of his presidency with every passing day, and have little to no confidence in him right now, since polls are showing massive losses in Trump’s popularity among American citizens. This led to a lack of confidence in the American dollar too; the USD has suffered losses, while safe-haven trading instruments such as gold have regained some of their popularity in recent times.

The most recent political fiasco of Trump’s administration is undoubtedly the failed healthcare reform. Republicans have been attempting to get rid of the Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) even before it was enacted years ago. Now that they finally have the upper hand in the Senate, it is astonishing just how poorly this was handled. Republicans kept details about their reform secret; the President expressed support for the bill without having seen it, and later switched his position, calling it “mean.” After a series of failed votes (including from Republican senators), the massively unpopular bill failed. It was then replaced with a plan to simply repeal Obamacare and return things to the way they were. In light of this, however, an estimate of 15 million people would have been left without insurance next year, and even more in the future. Last night even the vote to repeal Obamacare failed.

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Old 02-08-2017, 15:48
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CL/WTI: Short Review & Middle Term Forecast

After the depressed period we have an upward trend again and preconditions for further growth, given the long-term perspectives for increasing demand.

Between May and the end of June the market was depressed. Oil fell in price from $51 to $42. It seemed that the falling of oil prices is unstoppable. The oversupply of crude oil, the increase of oil extraction volumes even amid OPEC countries and the growth of oil reserves in the United States created a desperate situation, whereby market participants were unable to control the market and achieve a balance between demand and supply.

However, in July oil began to recover due to the reduction of oil stocks in the United States and the reduction of drilling activity. In addition, the oil recovered in price amid the long-term forecasts which show perspectives for growth in the demand for oil, although some analysts disagree with that. Nevertheless, given the recent data such as the index of business activity in China from Caixin, which marks the increasing of business activity, there are good preconditions for an increasing demand for raw materials in China. The decreasing in oil reserves in the United States will ease the pressure on the oil market for the next few months.

CL/WTI, H4
In the near future the market will focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will take place on August 7-8. The volatility over the past few months has remained very high, but it's decreasing. We can expect for sure a continuation of the rates in the frames of the current uptrend. After the price correction, prices may recover to the level of 50-51 dollars. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time to open the deals to BUY on the trend.

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