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  #61  
Old 11-09-2017, 15:49
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Default Re: Technical Analysis by SuperForex

GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate

The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.

If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.

The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.

The Next Few Days

From this classical analysis of the pair we canít take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.

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  #62  
Old 12-09-2017, 16:08
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Default Re: Technical Analysis by SuperForex

What will happen to the dollar index after "Irma" and "Harvey"


The calculation of losses from natural disasters is out.

Hurricane Irma has almost calmed down and now itís time to assess the damage. After Harvey's passing about $ 12 billion were already paid for insurance payments. Of course, losses, in this case, were incurred by insurance companies. The fact is that as of June 20, 2016 in Harris County, a region that includes Houston, only 15% of the property was insured against floods. Also there is a National Flood Insurance Program. The program pays damages to those who do not have flood insurance, and often borrows from the Treasury Department to fulfill their claims obligations.

We will be able to observe after a full assessment of the damage from natural disasters, a surge of activity related to the need to restore the affected regions. This means activity in the real estate and employment market, which can help the dollar strengthen its position.

On the other hand, these are internal costs that will be covered by the state. Therefore, experts differ in their judgments, how this will affect the economy and where the dollar index will go.

At the moment, the index continues its downward movement after yesterday's slight increase and at the moment is 91.78.

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  #63  
Old 13-09-2017, 14:45
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Default AUD / CAD technical analysis

At the moment, the pair is trading in a downtrend and is between 23.6 and 0.00 Fibo levels with a daily chart.
Since recently some reliable enough data came from Canada, we see further strengthening of the Canadian currency.
The indices of RSI and Stochastic also confirm the downward movement after a small correction of 75 points.
At the moment, the pair is also under our Moving Average with a period of 28 and tends to a resistance level lying at 0.00 Fibo level (0.9655).
Tomorrow a number of important news will be released in Australia, at 2:15 (GMT +3) the speach of the Deputy Head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Debbel will take place, and at 4.30 (GMT +3) the changes in the level of employment for August will be published. This may slightly increase the volatility of our pair at the time of the news release.
By day trading, we are now seeing a downward movement, so there is an opportunity to take short positions. With take-profit and stop loss at the levels of 0.0 and 23.6 by Fibo, respectively. We also have a twice tested resistance level of 0.9690, on which it is also possible to fix profits and look for further fluctuations of the pair.
The intersection of our gliding (28) body with a candle and the subsequent fastening of the next candle by the body will highlight a possible reversal.
Support and resistance levels:
0.9655, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9805, 0.9870, 0.9900, 09975, 1.0050

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  #64  
Old 14-09-2017, 15:10
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Default USD / CHF technical analysis

At the moment, the pair is trading in the 0.9450 - 0.9775 corridor located at Fibo levels of 0.00 and 38.2. respectively.
Now we see that the pair found a resistance level from above and went from it back to the values of 0.9550 and 09450.
Despite the decision on the interest rate of the Swiss bank, our pair is trading without much acceleration and, once again testing the resistance level from above, returned to the corridor.
We can observe a possible acceleration of this instrument after the release of data on the consumer price index in the US at 15.30 (GMT +3). So at the moment, based on our technical levels, we can take a position after the release of news that could help strengthen the dollar. Now the price is testing the resistance level of 0.9655 and is likely to seek a level of 0.9775.
The RSI indicator has not yet reached the oversold level and indicates an upward movement to us.
Support and resistance levels: 0.9450 0.9550 0.9655 0.9775

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  #65  
Old 15-09-2017, 12:54
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Default A new wave of tension

North Korea conducted a nuclear test again
This morning on September 15, Japan stated that North Korea once again conducted nuclear tests and the missile flew over the northeastern part of the country. At the same time, South Korea also conducted military exercises, firing a rocket at sea. Earlier, after the new sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea, their leader Kim Jong-un promised to flood Japan and turn the US into "ash and darkness" and accelerated the testing of nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson exerts pressure on China to preserve the oil embargo, which is quite a powerful tool of pressure. However, China can limit trade relations on an official level, but can not deter smugglers, which hamper the pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime.
This news caused a lively sale of assets and sent investors to search for a quiet harbor.
This time, the markets reacted more calmly to this news and volatility weakened much faster than the previous week.
The dollar again continues the upward movement after corrective movement relative to the Yen.
The pound is traded at the level of annual highs against the dollar and may soon begin the corrective movement, after yesterday's sharp jump. Talks about possible increase in the interest rate in the coming months for a decade sounded on the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy. Such data was regarded positively by traders, which gave a sharp push to the British currency. And breaking through the strong resistance levels has reached new annual highs. On Friday we are expecting a fixation of profits and that the price will depart from the current values.
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  #66  
Old 18-09-2017, 13:47
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Default GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the Channel Breaking Out

The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.
In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.
The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.
The Next Few Days
After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.
Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.


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  #67  
Old 19-09-2017, 12:58
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Default GBP/JPY Technical Analysis before BoJ Policy Rate

The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.
The GBP/JPY rally hasnít finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.
The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.
The Next Few Days
The next few days we wonít think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.
This week the markets donít offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week - the Bank of Japanís decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.
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  #68  
Old 20-09-2017, 12:41
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Default CAD / JPY technical analysis

At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.
Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.
On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared "shooting star", which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a "head and shoulders" figure, with a shoulder level in the area of ​​88.90.
But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.
Support and resistance levels
87.72
88.35
88.89
89.50
90.10
90.90
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  #69  
Old 21-09-2017, 14:05
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Default GBP/EUR Technical analysis

The pair is moving within a downward trend.
At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.
Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.
Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.
Support and resistance levels:
0.8880
0.8825
0.8780
0.8715
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  #70  
Old 22-09-2017, 12:55
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Default German Elections 2017

Germans will be electing a new government this Sunday - how would that affect Europe?
Recently global news have been almost monopolized by three topics: the tensions between the United States and North Korea, natural disasters striking one after another, and the recent Federal Reserve meeting and talks of monetary policy changes around the world. One could hardly tell that there is something else very important going on this week: parliamentary elections in Germany.
Why arenít media talking about the German elections? After all, the elections in France this spring, as well as the British preliminary elections received a lot of news coverage when they were happening. The most likely explanation is that the results of the German elections are not likely to be very surprising. The current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel still enjoys a stable level of support and is a respected global leader, so most polls indicate that her party would easily win these elections. However, it still is worth it to take a look at German politics, because anything that changes there has the potential to affect the European Union and European markets greatly.
While it is true that Merkel will probably win herself a fourth mandate as chancellor, it is important to note that more parties are expected to make the cut this time. Likely we would see six parties enter the Bundestag. Six voices pulling in different directions is bound to make things more difficult and even slow down Germany, hindering its ability to continue to act as a global political leader.
While immigration seems to be on everybodyís mind and is central to debates between candidates, the number of asylum seekers has dramatically dropped in 2017 compared to previous years. There are other issues on the table such as labour, pensions, education, and more Ė and they can all affect the way Germanyís economy works Ė and the way Germany participates in the European Union.
One of the most important things to watch out for in these elections is how the Alternative fuer Deutschland party would do. The far-right political party, often labeled as modern-day nazis, is very conservative and outspoken about its strong stance on immigration: they feel that trying to harbor Muslim refugees and integrate them into European society is a lost cause and oppose the current lax immigration policy of Germany that is championed by Merkel. So far Germany has been the leader in the refugee crisis, encouraging countries to accept and help refugees. This issue is close to the hearts of Germans, as they found themselves in a similar position during World War II Ė they know what it is like to be a refugee, and they also know what it feels like to be mistaken for a terrorist (or a nazi), just because of your origin. That is why Germany has always maintained that it would extend a helping hand to those in need. However, as the number of terrorist attacks around Europe increases, many people begin to fear for their safety, and other countries, such as France, have called for stricter immigration policies in order to increase safety. This brings us back to the AfD: nazis have not been in power in Germany since World War II, but over the past few years they seem to have gathered a lot of support. It is expected that they may reap as much as 10% of the vote in these elections, securing them a comfortable section of the German Parliament. This means that they would have a say in German politics, and when dissenting views clash in parliament, the stability of a country suffers, as does its ability to act (just look at how poorly the UK is handling Brexit, simply due to a lack of majority in parliament).
Overall, change is coming to Germany, even if Merkel is re-elected. And with that, change will invariably come to the eurozone as well.
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  #71  
Old 25-09-2017, 12:12
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Default EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

After breaking the channel we are still waiting for the Moving Average of the pair.
Since the EUR/JPY pair broke down the price channel last month, it is still fighting to make new highs below the channel. The pair retested it a few times before, the last one happening the previous week when the pair reached the resistance area 134.40-50 and now it has been declining for two days to trade at 133.12.
In our previous article about the pair we said that we would sell the pair once it broke the moving average down, but the pair didnít make it. Instead, it just touched the MA and back to rise again. That is why up until now we could not take buy positions - because the pair couldnít break above the resistance level and the stochastic indicator had been giving us the sell signal. Now we have a strong support area at the SMA 50 at 132.31.
The Next Few Days
Based on this simple analysis of the pair, after retesting the channel we are going to sell the pair at the current level 133.12 and keep our target at 132.35. We are going to wait for the SMA breaking down, then we can sell again below 131.30 and our target for this trade will be at 126.50. However, this whole scenario depends on the pair still trading below the resistance level 134.50.
This week the market doesnít bring any hot news from the European Union or Japan, except the speeches of the Central Bank's president Draghi today and Friday, and Bank of Japan governor Kuroda on Thursday.
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  #72  
Old 26-09-2017, 13:00
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Default Oil Prices Recovering

Oil Prices Recovering
Analysts feel that for the first time in two years oil prices are on their way to recovery.
Last week the prices of oil (and other commodities) suffered somewhat due to a strengthening of the American dollar caused by last weekís Federal Reserve policy meeting. However, despite the noticeable decrease, the price of oil still didnít fall to dangerous levels and remained relatively stable.
Now analysts are saying that the oil market is heading towards a stabilization, and is perhaps approaching the resolution of the oil crisis of the past two years. This year OPEC as well as non-members who are oil exporters such as Russia have managed to cut down their production dramatically, which helped alleviate the oversupply on the market for crude oil. As a result, the price of oil went up by 15% in recent months.
American crude oil is currently at around $50.51, while London brent crude oil is trading around the $56 mark. Itís worth noting that oil extraction in the United States was previously affected by a series of natural disasters that hit the North American coastlines.


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  #73  
Old 27-09-2017, 13:05
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Default EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The results from the elections in Germany negatively impacted the EUR, though it still has a potential for stabilizing.
Starting from Monday, September 25 the euro came under pressure due to the election results in Germany. The ruling party together with Angela Merkel won the election, but with the lowest result since 1949. They are not able to form a coalition easily, as it happened at previous elections. However, other parties also cannot form a coalition themselves, which is why nobody doubts that Angela Merkel will again be Chancellor. Nevertheless, it is expected that negotiations on creating a coalition will be difficult because the former coalition partners do not want to continue their cooperation. In any case, the opposition will be stronger than ever, so investors prefer at the moment to invest in other assets.
On the other hand, the Singaporean dollar has been supported this week due to the recent data about the volume of manufacturing production in August, which exceeded the forecasts of investors both in annual and monthly terms, although the growth has been less rapid than in the previous month and amounted to +19.1% against the expected 14.2% YoY.
On the EUR/SGD chart we can see the formation of a weak downward trend which forms after a steady flat period. The support line shifts down, but now we have also a high probability of a price correction. After the market reacted to the elections in Germany and took into account the probability of political uncertainty in Germany, the euro still has a potential for stabilizing in price and strengthening. Market volatility will be lower next week, after an intense news period. In the near future we can expect data about the business activity index (PMI) from Singapore and about the volume of retail sales in the EU.
In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the deals to BUY in short-term trading, which is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Nevertheless, the probability of the continuation of the new downtrend in favor of the SGD is preserved in the medium term.
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  #74  
Old 28-09-2017, 13:35
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Default USD/CAD Technical Analysis

At present our pair is trading within the daily Fibo levels and pushing away from the level of 1.2220 (Fibo level 0.00). It has approached and is currently testing the level of 23.6.
So far the pair has not been able to break through the resistance level of the candle body and we are seeing a correction that can last up to 1.2355.
Furthermore, the MACD histogram shows a weakening, and the Stochastic indicator is showing a possible spread. It is still in the overbought zone, but about to enter a really strong correction or spread. Therefore, it's too early to say what position we should take, until we receive a more conclusive result.
Of the fundamental factors today we have data on the US GDP for the second quarter. The pair might not reach our resistance levels, with indicators exceeding the projected 3% and rushing up.
In addition, the Canadian government is concerned about strengthening its own currency and is ready to reduce the level of inflation.
Overall, we are looking for points to enter long positions at the current support levels and expect an upward movement of the pair.
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  #75  
Old 29-09-2017, 14:04
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Default Trump`s tax reform

How does this new suggested legislation affect the US economy?
This week we chose to return our discussion to the political situation in the United States where we have another major news story: the new tax plan proposed by President Trumpís administration. This story is significant particularly because this is barely the second major piece of legislation that Trumpís office has produced. The first one was the now infamous health care bill which died a slow death in Congress, repeatedly. The failure of the administration then drove investors to doubt the stability of Trumpís mandate, which was a major contributor to the record lows of the American dollar registered up until last week. Can this new bill on taxes have the same impact? Letís see!
First off, we need to acknowledge how important tax policy was to Trumpís presidential campaign. He had a few key issues that were the highlights of his rhetoric: immigration, repeal Obamacare, and a better tax policy, among a few that stand out the most. His attempts to curb immigration through travel bans have been met with major disapproval, his plans to repeal or replace Obamacare have failed, and now his proposal on tax policy is met with a lot of doubt before itís even fully-defined. Trumpís previous failures managed to shake the dollar, so it is reasonable to argue that if his tax bill is a fiasco, he might hurt the American currency again.
The plan that Trumpís administration announced on Wednesday can hardly be called anything, according to experts. It contains vague outlines of the administrationís goals while it lacks clear explanations of how they propose to achieve them. The actual work on making this plan more meaningful still lies ahead and may take months, according to CNN. What we know for certain is that the plan will decrease the top income tax from 39.6 to 35%, giving a major advantage to the richest Americans. The proposal would suggests an increase of the ratio of income that is exempt from taxes, which would mean a lower tax for every individual. While this sounds great for peopleís personal incomes, it would make a major dent in the budget of the United States, due to trillions of dollars of potential tax revenue not being collected.
Trumpís tax plan doesnít provide any guidance on how the budget shortage will be compensated under such a policy. It also doesnít prove that this new tax system wonít place a greater burden on the middle class, which Trump has stated he wants to protect. It very clearly benefits the rich, while itís murky (at best) in terms of all other income groups in the United States.
The plan also suggests a simplification of the tax system by collapsing the current seven-step policy (where seven different income groups are taxed a different percentage, between 10% and 39.6% for the poorest and richest incomes, respectively). The new system would have just three groups: 12%, 25%, and 35%, but the income brackets for each tax rate are still unknown. Itís also interesting that some corporate taxes are proposed for the 25% rate instead of the 35%, which may cause a lot of tax fraud.
Considering how much information is missing from the proposal, itís still very difficult to dissect it. However, Republicans themselves do not agree on many of these issues, not to mention that Democrats are not likely to support anything that cuts the taxes of the wealthy, so this piece of legislation is likely to have trouble passing through Congress Ė if it is ever completed.
Right now there might not be too much to this story as we still need to hear more concrete points about the tax bill. However, itís worth it to stay tuned and watch out for further instability within the United States. They are already in the spotlight due to tensions with North Korea Ė any internal disorder would only worsen their economic climate and weaken the dollar.
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  #76  
Old 02-10-2017, 13:14
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Default GBP/AUD Technical Outlook before the Cash Rate

Looking for new highs after breaking the price channel.
In our last report about the GBP/AUD on September 5 the pair was trading inside a descending price channel and we recommended selling the pair if the prices are still trading between its limits, unless the prices broke the limit. We saw the pair broke the upper limit on September 12 and retested the broken level on Sep 14, so we closed our sell positions and we were supposed to take buy positions after the retest, according to classical theory in case of breakthroughs.
After the price channel breaking, Forex theory says that the prices will rise as much as the last upside wave before the channel. You can see the black lines in the chart below, so the target of this wave will be at 1.7870. The pair reached the key resistance level 1.7143 last week, which has 10 tops and bottoms on it. You can see 5 in the chart below, so the prices will make a little downward correction and rise again to break it. The moving average is still trading below the prices to support our positive vision for the pair.
The Next Few Days
Based on this analysis, we have taken a positive vision after breaking the channel. We know that the pair will break the resistance level soon, so we can take a buy position now at the current level at 1.7024 and if the prices return back to 1.6980 we can take another buy position, keeping our target at 1.7625 and another long-term target at 1.7870.
Tomorrow we have the cash rate and the policy statement from the Republic Bank of Australia and PMIís data from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we have the retail sales and trade balance from Australia, so we should trade carefully this week due to this news.

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  #77  
Old 03-10-2017, 10:36
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Default GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

The pound-dollar pair is now demonstrating a downward movement. Our price is under the slow moving MA (120), which now becomes our support level.
Against the backdrop of not the most optimistic data on business activity in the industrial sector of the United Kingdom, we continue to observe the strengthening of the dollar against the British currency. That signals a possible slowdown in economic growth.
Our technical indicators also indicate a downward movement. The pair is delayed near stronger, day-time Fibo levels.
That is why at the moment it is recommended to look for points to enter short positions.
Support and resistance levels:
1.3350
1.3300
1.3225
1.3200
1.3160
1.3100
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  #78  
Old 04-10-2017, 13:03
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Default USD/MXN: Short Review & Forecast

The USD has strengthened against most currencies based on positive economic news and increased probability for a new rate hike this year.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against most currencies this week. At the same time, the tragic event in Las Vegas wasn't noticed by investors amid positive economic news, which increases the probability of a rate hike in the United States. FED Chairman Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank is not going to refuse one more rate hike which was scheduled this year. In addition, the dollar received support from the tax reform which was promised personally by Donald Trump. Also, the USD has been supported given the probability of a change of the head of the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast that Kevin Warsh will be chosen as new FED Head. It's known that he is a supporter of a strong dollar and tight monetary policy. Consequently, there are perspectives for further strengthening of the dollar.

Data about the Mexican economy also pleased investors this week. The business activity index amounted to 52.8 points in September, surpassing investors' expectations. This is a record level in recent years, but the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico to keep the rate at the same level didn't support significantly the MXN compared to the strong dollar. So, the rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although the resistance line has been gradually shifting upwards for the last several months, indicating a weakening of the current trend. However, at the moment the most optimal would be the deals on the trend, which is confirmed unanimously by the MACD and Stochastics oscillators.
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  #79  
Old 05-10-2017, 12:40
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Default EUR/CHF technical analysis

At the moment we are seeing an upward movement in this pair. Despite the destabilizing factors from the eurozone, the euro continues to strengthen against the Swiss currency after a recent sharp fall. Technical indicators indicate to us an upward movement. The price at the moment is under the moving average MA (89) and is trying to break it.

From a fundamental standpoint, we do not expect any factors contradicting this price movement neither for the franc, nor for the euro. Therefore, we will look for an entrance into long positions near the support lines and exit points near the resistance levels.

Support and resistance levels:
1.1355
1.1435
1.1460
1.1495
1.1525
1.1550

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  #80  
Old 06-10-2017, 13:57
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Default Catalonia: Spanish or Independent?

Last week's referendum has brought new tensions to Europe.
The European markets shook this week, as last weekend Catalonia, an autonomous area comprising four provinces in northeastern Spain, held a referendum and voted in support of its independence from Spain. This week we would take a look at what happened and also where that leaves us now.
To begin with, the political status of Catalonia has long been a pressing concern on the Iberian peninsula. The region has long claimed it is a distinct nation, owing to historical evidence that up to the 16th century, it used to be separate from Spain. In modern history, Catalonia has fought for its independence all throughout the 20th century: it first received a status as an autonomous region within Spain in 1932, which was taken away during Franco’s rule. The autonomous status of Catalonia was restored in the 1970s when Spain returned to democratic rule. Catalans are allowed to speak their own language and have their own government, though officially it is subordinate to the Spanish government.
Over the last few years tensions regarding Catalan nationality have risen, culminating in last week’s referendum. Spain is naturally opposed to losing land and people which have been part of its territory over the last five centuries. Catalonia also happens to be a fairly rich territory. In general, if Catalonia declares independence, this would be perceived by Spanish authorities as an attempt to disrupt Spain’s territorial integrity and could even lead to (civil) war.
Is Catalonia independent? Right now, no. The referendum’s goal was to assess whether the Catalan population wants to be independent from Spain. They voted 90% in favor, but it is up to the Catalan government to decide whether to act on this vote or not. The referendum itself caused violent clashes with the Spanish police, so the Catalan authorities might bide their time, working out a way to avoid future conflict. The Catalan president Carles Puigdemont has spoken about involving international diplomats to help hold peaceful negotiations.
Naturally, the seriousness of this situation has caused ripples through the financial markets. Spanish stocks lost 2.7% this week, while banks that are based in Barcelona (the capital of Catalonia) were a whole 7% down. Spanish bonds have also decreased.
So, what happens now? Some analysts believe that Catalonia is not fully prepared for independence, in terms of its political organs and readiness for policy making. The region has relied on Spain, and by extension, the European Union for many of its day-to-day activities, so severing that relationship will be hard. If Catalonia declared independence without Spain’s approval, it would find itself in a tight spot. Spain’s economy will also suffer immensely, and future clashes and protests will hinder business activity. Investors could give up on Spanish assets altogether, which could plunge the government into a recession.
It is more likely that there will be a negotiation, which could win Catalonia additional levels of control over its activities, but would still not be a complete independence from Spain.
Because of the current protests and blocked roads, it has been impossible for some businesses to operate as usual. If things continue to be so chaotic and uncertain, Spain’s economic growth would stall.
Right now all eyes are on the Iberian Peninsula. If the King of Spain agrees to meet for peaceful negotiations, the pressure would ease off Spanish assets. However, if Catalonia moves ahead and declares independence, we could see a new crisis in Spain, and consequently Europe.

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