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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

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  #161  
Old 13-06-2016, 11:05
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AUD/USD: Australian Dollar remains under pressure

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair substantially declined amid some strengthening in the US Dollar, which was supported by strong data on the US labour market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 264 thousands, while economists predicted their growth to 270 thousands.

At the same time, today the Australian Dollar was supported by strong data on the Industrial Production in China. In May, the index grew by 6.0% that was 0.1% better than expectations of experts.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling having left the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7538 (local low), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low), 0.7100 (psychologically important level).
Resistance levels: 0.7400 (local high), 0.7426, 0.7463, 0.7500 (9 June high), 0.7533, 0.7567 (3 May high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7358 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7463, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7327. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7327 with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7375. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #162  
Old 14-06-2016, 11:05
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
On Monday the GBP/USD pair after a short upward correction resumed its downward trend. During the past week, the pair was falling but probably has not reached its lows yet and might continue moving further down. Today attention needs to be paid to statistics on key indices which have been released in the UK and data on retail sales due in the US.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs. Further decline in the pair seems a likelier scenario.
Support levels: 1.4140, 1.4070.
Resistance levels: 1.4190, 1.4240, 1.4280, 1.4330, 1.4580.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the current level with the target at 1.4070 and stop-loss at 1.4190.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4280 with the target at 1.4330 and stop-loss at 1.4190.

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  #163  
Old 15-06-2016, 12:57
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EUR/USD: general review


Current trend

Today the pair is growing amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% due to the publication of very weak data on the US labour market. Just to remind, the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 38 thousands that was significantly worse than the forecasts.

At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.7%, which signals that in the medium-term inflation is likely to accelerate and that would lead to tightening in monetary policy.

Support and resistance
On the hourly chart, the pair is trading in a narrow sideways channel between the levels of 1.1237 and 1.1189.
The RSI does not give a clear trading signal.
The nearest support levels is at 1.1189.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1240 with the target at 1.1303 and stop-loss at 1.1189.

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  #164  
Old 16-06-2016, 13:35
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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair continues growing despite results of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The Regulator decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged and noted in the Monetary Policy Statement that only one more rate increase should be expected this year. The Canadian Dollar came under pressure, as Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz expressed concerns regarding the pace of economic growth in the country.
It should be noted that oil prices have a strong impact on dynamics in the pair, and if a downward correction in the oil market continues, the pair might get support.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD is hovering around the zero line. Stochastic is in the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3002, 1.2978, 1.2951, 1.2909, 1.2871, 1.2834, 1.2786, 1.2730, 1.2692, 1.2663.
Resistance levels: 1.3093, 1.3122, 1.3168, 1.3186, 1.3237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3093 and stop-loss at 1.2951. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3122 with the target at 1.3002 and stop-loss at 1.3168. Validity – 1-2 days.
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  #165  
Old 17-06-2016, 08:59
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USD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid increasing anxiety on the market due to an upcoming referendum on UK’s membership in the EU, which is forcing investors to switch into safe-haven assets, such as the Yen. In addition, the Yen was supported by the decision by the Bank of Japan not to expand its stimulus program despite low inflation and weak growth of the world economy.

The pair was also pressured by poor data from the US, where the Consumer Price Index in May grew by only 0.2% that was worse than expectations, while Initial Jobless Claims increased from 264 to 277 thousands, against forecasted 270 thousands.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a sell signal. Stochastic is trying to turn up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 104.34 (local low), 104.00, 103.74, 103.54 (local low).
Resistance levels: 104.82 (local high), 105.19, 105.54, 106.00, 106.39 (15 June high), 106.71, 107.25 (10 June high), 107.89 (7 June high), 108.22.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 104.82 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 106.00, 106.39, 106.71 and stop-loss at 104.34. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 104.00 with the target at 103.00 and stop-loss at 104.50. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #166  
Old 20-06-2016, 13:32
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EUR/USD: pair continues growing

Current trend
At the end of the previous week, the Euro was gaining positions against the US Dollar, and today the pair opened with a substantial gap up.

Current dynamics is caused by weakness in the US Dollar coupled with growing demand for risky assets. In the UK, all Brexit referendum campaigns were suspended due to the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. As a result, new polling data showed a certain decline in chances of the UK’s exit from the EU.

On Friday the American currency came under pressure from macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the number of housing starts fell from 1.167 to 1.164 million in May that was, however, better than the forecast of 1.150 million. The number of building permits grew from 1.130 to 1.138 million in May against an expected rise to 1.150 million.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a moderate growth while the price range is still narrowing quite actively. MACD has turned up and started growing with a buy signal. Stochastic has reached the border of the overbought zone that suggests a downward correction might develop in the short term.
According to the indicators, long positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.1348, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1231, 1.1200, 1.1179, 1.1128 (16 June low), 1.1100 (near 30 May low), 1.1057, 1.1000 (10 March level), 1.0966.
Resistance levels: 1.1400 (near 9 June highs), 1.1449, 1.1500 (4 May level), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 may high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.1400 is broken out (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541, 1.1577 and stop-loss at 1.1340. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price turns down near the level of 1.1400 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #167  
Old 21-06-2016, 14:52
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USD/JPY: продолжение снижения цены

Current trend

Demand for the Yen remains high amid difficulties and risks the global economy is facing. The American Dollar does not manage to show a strong growth being under pressure from mixed macroeconomic data, released in the US. As a result, the USD/JPY pair reached the key support level of 103.50.
Today market participants are following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony, and later this week, attention needs to be paid to US labour market statistics and data on the Durable Goods Orders.

Support and resistance
Despite of an upward correction today, the price is likely to remain within a descending channel and head towards the key support at 101.00, which is the lowest level since 2013. It also should be noted that the price might start moving sideways within the range of 101.00-107.50.

According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue its downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing. Bollinger Bands is directed up. The price remains above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of Ichimoku clouds.

Support levels: 104.15, 103.50, 102.65, 102.05, 101.00, 100.30, 100.00, 99.70.
Resistance levels: 105.05, 105.90, 107.00, 107.50, 108.75, 109.30.

Trading tips
It is recommended to build up on your short position from the levels of 105.05, 107.00 with the target at 101.00 and stop-loss at 107.90.

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  #168  
Old 22-06-2016, 16:38
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USD/CAD: flat trades in the pair

Current trend
The USD has significantly grown against the CAD at the closing session on Tuesday, after two-day decline, which led the price back to the local lows of June. Minor correction was caused by the domination of cautious sentiments in the market. Prior to the referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU, investors do not rush to open new positions, even despite some encouraging signals.
On Tuesday, the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen gave a speech before the Banking Committee in the Senate. As before, she has mentioned that the world economy is facing significant risks; China is facing economic difficulties and interest rate will depend on the economic situation. As long as economic situation remains ambiguous, the prospects of the interest rate increase in the USA in July are vague.

Levels of support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2829 (local highs of 20 June), 1.2861, 1.2900, 1.2962, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3143 (highs of 2 June), 1.3187 (highs of 24 May) and 1.3218.
Support levels: 1.2762 (local lows of 21 June), 1.2700, 1.2654 (lows of 8 June), 1.2600 (lows of 3 May).
On the daily chart the indicator “Bollinger bands” is declining. Price range is narrowing, indicating mixed movement in the market in the past few days. MACD indicator is declining, giving a weak sell signal. If the “bearish” trend continues, it is recommended to keep existing short positions. Stochastic Oscillator is going down too. However, the line of the indicator has almost reached the lowest in the oversold zone, which reduces chances of continuation of the downtrend in the short-term. It is advisable to wait until the indicator leaves oversold zone.

Индикатор “Полосы Боллинджера” на дневном графике демонстрирует снижение. Ценовой диапазон сужается, отражая разнонаправленный характер торгов, наблюдаемых в последние несколько дней. *Индикатор MACD снижается, сохраняя слабый сигнал на продажу. При сохранении текущего «медвежьего» сигнала рекомендуется удерживать имеющиеся короткие позиции. Осциллятор “Стохастик” сохраняет нисходящую направленность. Вместе с тем, линия индикатора уже практически достигла минимальных значений в области перепродаж, что существенно ограничивает перспективы развития нисходящего тренда в краткосрочной и перспективе. Следует дождаться выхода индикатора из области перепродаж.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price goes up above the level of 1.2800 and rebounds from this level as a support level. Take profit can be placed at the levels of 1.2900 1.2962 or 1.3000. Stop-loss - 1.2762. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.
As an alternative scenario the “bearish” trend can resume after breakdown of the level of 1.2762. In this case, it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 1.2600 and stop-loss of 1.2800. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.


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  #169  
Old 23-06-2016, 10:28
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XAG/USD: Technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is traded near the upper band of the Bollinger indicator. The indicator is moving up and the price range is expanding. The price is above the moving average line of EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are slightly decreasing. Stochastic is in the central area, at the border with the oversold area, and its lines are directed downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On 4-hour chart the pair is traded in the lower band of the Bollinger indicator; the indicator is moving sideways, price range has narrowed. Moving average line EMA50 is above the price level, while EMA100 and EMA144 are below the price level. MACD histogram is entered to the negative zone and volumes are decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, its lines are directed upwards.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.35 (two-week lows), 16.92 ( EMA50), 17.09 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 17.60 (local highs), 17.84 (last month highs), 18.02 (upper limit of the Bollinger bands).

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions from the level of 17.09 with the targets of 16.69, 16.48 and stop-loss at 17.25. Long positions can be opened from the level of 17.52 with the targets of 17.84, 18.16 and stop-loss at 17.09. Forecast is valid for 3-5 days.


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  #170  
Old 24-06-2016, 14:38
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GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday almost 52% of British people voted to leave the European Union, and the Pound crashed to its 30-year low. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair was under pressure from strong data on the number of initial jobless claims in the US. The indicator dropped more than expected from 277 to 259 thousands against the forecast of 270 thousands.
Today attention should be paid to statistics on durable goods orders in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price did not managed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.3902. The pair is trading below the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, but the price range is widening suggesting the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing; a strong sell signal has been formed. Stochastic has turned horizontally near the border of the oversold zone.

The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 1.3655, 1.3356, 1.3229.
Resistance levels: 1.3778, 1.3902, 1.4013, 1.4169, 1.4287, 1.4424, 1.4561.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3356, 1.3229 and stop-loss at 1.3902. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4013 with the target at 1.4424 and stop-loss at 1.3778. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #171  
Old 30-06-2016, 10:32
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday the GBP/USD pair was growing and gained 250 points but then started correcting down and lost 150 points. There is a strong chance that descending movement will continue. Today the pair might be influenced by UK’s Q1 GDP data, due at 10:30 am (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

The price is moving down from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands to the lower one. The price range is narrowing. The price is likely to reach the lower MA and then turn up.
Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3150.
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3585.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3364 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3364 with the target at 1.3470 and stop-loss at 1.3300.

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  #172  
Old 05-07-2016, 09:48
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Since last Friday, the GDP/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range of 1.3250-1.3300. Today market participants will be following a press conference given by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The Head of the Regulator will give commentaries regarding current economic conditions in the country which are likely to influence short-term dynamics in the pair.

Support and resistance

The price is in the region of the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, and its growth towards the middle and upper MAs seems a likelier scenario. The price range is slightly widening.
Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3220, 1.3150.
Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3400.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3225 with the target at 1.3310 and stop-loss at 1.3200.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3310 with the target at 1.3235 and stop-loss at 1.3330.

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  #173  
Old 06-07-2016, 10:16
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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday the US Dollar strengthened against the Canadian currency. Concerns about Brexit’s impact on the global economy result in higher demand for the US currency. Moreover, the USD/CAD pair gained support from a decline in oil prices.

Today dynamics in the pair might be influenced by statistics on trade balance, due both in the US and in Canada. Attention also needs to be paid to US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, as an expected index growth from 52.9 to 53.3 points might provide moderate support for the American currency.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally while the price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone.
Long positions seem preferable, but it is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals before placing new orders.
Support levels: 1.2978, 1.2950, 1.2920, 1.2899, 1.2874, 1.2857, 1.2820.
Resistance levels: 1.3016, 1.3046, 1.3077, 1.3095.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3046, 1.3077 and stop-loss at 1.2978. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.2978 is broken down with the target at 1.2950 and stop-loss at 1.3046. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #174  
Old 07-07-2016, 12:40
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GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the GBP/USD pair reached its new lows, having fallen to the level of 1.2796. The fall in the pair slowed down only amid the publication of data on US trade balance as trade deficit widened more than forecast.
Macroeconomic statistics, released today in the UK, were generally favorable for the national currency. Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in May compared to April that was, nevertheless, better than a projected drop of 0.9 percent. On the year, the indicator was 1.4 percent up against the forecast of 0.5 percent. The Halifax House Price Index grew 1.3 percent in May after a 0.9 percent growth in the previous month.

Data on the Employment Change is due today in the US. The indicator is expected to decline from 173 to 159 thousands that might negatively influence the US Dollar. Attention also needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims. If the indicator exceeds the forecast of 270 thousands, the American currency is likely to come under pressure.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is declining along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are showing a sharp growth. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and moving along its border.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2800.
Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3120, 1.3290, 1.3440, 1.3675, 1.3880, 1.4220, 1.4609, 1.4770.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3020 with the target at 1.3120 and stop-loss at 1.2990.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2900 with the target at 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2930.
Validity – 1-3 days.

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  #175  
Old 08-07-2016, 10:53
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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday data on Germany’s industrial production and US initial jobless claims had almost no influence on the EUR/USD pair. Today market participants are waiting for data on US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate statistics for June. Friday’s employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs from low May reading of 38,000. Unemployment rate is likely to be up to 4.8% from 4.7%.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.1050-1.1105. The market remains relatively calm ahead of US jobs report. Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally. MACD histogram is moving along the signal line in the negative zone.
Support levels: 1.1035, 1.0971, 1.0911.
Resistance levels: 1.1105, 1.1143, 1.1185.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1035 with targets at 1.0971 and 1.0911.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1143 with targets at 1.1185 and 1.1220.

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  #176  
Old 11-07-2016, 09:23
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USD/CAD: pair is growing

Current trend

The pair continued growing in the end of last week amid the publications of labour market data in the US and Canada. The American data showed a substantial strengthening of its labour market that supported the US Dollar. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 254 thousands while the Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 287 thousands, against the previous figure of 11 thousands. At the same time, the Canadian Dollar was pressured by data on the Net Change in Employment, which fell by 0.7 thousands while economists predicted a growth of 13.8 thousands. However, the Participation Rate shrank from 65.7% to 65.5% that lead to a decline in the Unemployment Rate from 6.9% to 6.8%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3020, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2930, 1.2876 (7 July low), 1.2831 (4 July low), 1.2800, 1.2762. 1.2700.
Resistance levels: 1.3064 (local high), 1.3100 (28 June high), 1.3143 (2 June high), 1.3187 (24 May high), 1.3218.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 with targets at 1.3218, 1.3250, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3050. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3020 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2876 and stop-loss at 1.3070. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #177  
Old 12-07-2016, 09:09
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USD/JPY: pair is growing

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid weakening in the Yen. The Japanese currency was pressured by a victory in elections of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who is an active supporter of an expansion in the economy stimulation program. Experts note that after the victory implementation of stimulus measures will become much easier.
At the same time, the Dollar was supported by strong data on the US labour market that was released last Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 287 thousands, significantly exceeding expectations of 175 thousand jobs and the previous figure of 11 thousands.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a strong buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 102.00 (local low), 101.46, 100.57, 100.00 (8 July low), 99.00 (24 June low).
Resistance levels: 103.00 (local high), 103.39 (1 July high), 104.00, 104.82, 105.54, 106.39, 106.84 (24 June high), 107.25, 107.89 (7 June high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 103.39 with targets at 104.82, 105.54 and stop-loss at 102.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 103.00 with targets at 100.57, 100.00 and stop-loss at 104.00. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #178  
Old 13-07-2016, 11:37
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The British currency continues strengthening. Since the beginning of the week, the GBP/USD pair has gained back about 500 points. There is a good chance that the pair has already reached its lows after the results of the British referendum were released, and, therefore, might continue developing its upward trend.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price remains between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands and might continue moving up towards the middle one and reach the level of 1.3500 which is one of recent local highs.
Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3150, 1.3060, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3585.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3500 and stop-loss at 1.3235.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3235 with the target at 1.2860 and stop-loss at 1.3310.

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  #179  
Old 14-07-2016, 12:01
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AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair has been moving up for two weeks already, and the dynamics is likely to continue. Since yesterday, the Australian Dollar has strengthened by about 70 points.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims, due in the US at 14:30 pm (GMT+2). The indicator is expected to grow from 254,000 to 265,000 that might have a negative impact on the US currency.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed up. The price is growing from the middle to the upper MA, and at present there is no indication that the price tends to reverse.
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7550, 0.7540.
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7600.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7700.

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  #180  
Old 15-07-2016, 12:06
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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving up and strengthened by 35 points in the previous trading session. Yesterday US macroeconomic statistics had almost no influence on dynamics in the pair. It should, nevertheless, be noted that the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 254,000 while economists expected an increase to 265,000. Today market participants will be following data on the Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.1115, 1.1087, 1.1050, 1.1010.
Resistance levels: 1.1148, 1.1185, 1.1220, 1.1276.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1148 with targets at 1.1185 and 1.1220.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1087 with targets at 1.1050 and 1.1010.

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  #181  
Old 18-07-2016, 14:28
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UKBrent: technical analysis

BRENT, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The indicator is directed down while the price range is expanding. MACD histogram entered the negative zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

BRENT, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke down a strong support level at 47.38. Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally while the price range is narrowing, suggesting a change in the trend possibility. MACD histogram is trying to turn up but keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is about to enter the oversold zone.

Key levels

Support levels: 46.47 (local low), 46.09, 45.71 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 47.38, 47.91, 48.63 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 49.20.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 45.71 and stop-loss at 47.38. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 47.91 with targets at 48.30, 48.65 and stop-loss at 47.15. Validity – 1-2 days.


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  #182  
Old 19-07-2016, 10:04
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USD/CAD: pair trades flat

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair started this week with a growth but then lost most of its gains. This dynamics in the pair can be explained by the lack of important macroeconomic publications in the US and fluctuation in the oil market.
The price of oil lost about 2 percent on Friday after data on crude supplies and the number of active oil rigs were released. Genscape reported an increase of 26,460 barrels in the week to 15 July at Cushing delivery hub. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil rigs rose by six to 357. These statistics are seen as a negative factor that might cause a shift in the supply and demand fragile balance in the oil market.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains narrow. MACD is trying to turn up while still keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is turning up near the border of the oversold zone.
Support levels: 1.2962, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2861 (local low), 1.2831 (4 July low), 1.2800, 1.2762, 1.2700 (23 June level).
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3021 (local high), 1.3055, 1.3083, 1.3100, 1.3139 (11 July high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3000 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3100, 1.3139 and stop-loss at 1.2962, 1.2950. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebounds down from the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.3050. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #183  
Old 20-07-2016, 11:13
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XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is moving down along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above EMA100 and EMA144, both directed up, and below EMA50. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are gradually growing. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic is falling.

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument rebounded down from the upper MA of Bollinger Bands in the region of 20.50 and is now moving towards the middle MA. At present, the price remains above EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes, having reached their highs, are now gradually falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic lines are directed down.

Key levels

Support levels: 19.70, 19.45, 19.00, 18.30, 18.00, 17.50, 17.20, 16.65, 16.30, 15.80.
Resistance levels: 20.00, 20.25, 20.50, 20.95, 21.15.

Trading tips

According to the indicators, short positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 19.70 with targets at 19.45, 19.00 and stop-loss at 19.85. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 20.00 with targets at 20.25, 20.50 and stop-loss at 19.90. Validity – 1-3 days.


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  #184  
Old 21-07-2016, 09:58
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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues trading at its local lows amid weakening in the Euro, which remains under pressure prior to the ECB monetary policy meeting. According to forecasts, the regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged but will announce its readiness to further ease monetary policy in the nearest future. At the same time, additional uncertainty to ECB’s decision comes from a growing problem in the Italian banking sector, which could worsen the situation of UK’s departure from the European Union. According to the IMF estimates, the total size of bad debts on banks’ balance sheets amounts to around 360 billion Euro.
In addition, the pair is pressured by strengthening in the Dollar that receives support from strong macroeconomic statistics from the US. The latest data increased the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed before the year-end.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.0984.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1023.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0984 with the target at 1.0750 and stop-loss at 1.1023.

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  #185  
Old 22-07-2016, 13:25
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Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure as gasoline inventories grew to a record high. In particular, the US Energy Information Administration reported a rise in gasoline stocks by 0.9 million barrels to 241 million barrels in the week ended 15 July that is 25% increase compared to the previous year. The same situation can be seen in Europe where gasoline stocks were up by 12%.
Moreover, strengthening in the US Dollar and a sluggish pace of the world economic growth have a negative impact on oil prices dynamics.

Support and resistance

RSI is growing suggesting the possibility of a correction towards the level of 46.50 from which a fall in the price should be expected.
The nearest support level is at 45.80.
The nearest resistance level is at 46.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 46.50 with the target at 45.00 and stop-loss at 47.00.

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  #186  
Old 25-07-2016, 08:47
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USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Despite strong macroeconomic statistics that were released today in Japan, the Yen remains under pressure amid expectations of a cut in interest rates at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, due 29 July. Moreover, it should also be noted that other major central banks also consider further easing of monetary policy to overcome negative effects of Britain’s exit from the EU. Thus, the US Dollar is seen as a more attractive asset in the current situation.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed horizontally while the price range is showing no changes. The instrument fell below the support level of 106.27. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic reached the border of the overbought zone and turned down.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 105.98, 105.67, 105.43, 105.04.
Resistance levels: 106.27, 106.50, 106.70, 107.16, 107.45.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current levels with the target at 105.43 and stop-loss at 106.70. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 106.50 with the target at 107.00 and stop-loss at 106.15. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #187  
Old 26-07-2016, 13:08
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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid falling oil prices that pressure the Canadian Dollar. In addition, the pair is supported by strengthening in the US Dollar due to an increased probability of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year.
Tomorrow extra attention needs to be paid to the Fed Interest Rate Decision and its Monetary Policy Statement. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged while commentaries by the regulator might cause high volatility on the market.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing a strong resistance at 1.3223.
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed up while the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling as it has left the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3182, 1.3140, 1.3099, 1.3065, 1.3021.
Resistance levels: 1.3223, 1.3240, 1.3259.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3230 with the target at 1.3260 and stop-loss at 1.3205. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3200 with the target at 1.3140 and stop-loss at 1.3235. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #188  
Old 27-07-2016, 10:43
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues trading in a narrow sideways channel near the level of 1.3100 amid lack of important macroeconomic news form the UK and prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due today. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged.
At the same time, the majority of market participants expect a rate cut in the UK in the nearest future while the probability of monetary policy tightening in the US before the end of the year significantly increased, which is pressuring the pair.

Support and resistance

In the medium-term, the price is expected to fall to the level of 1.3000, where it will reverse and return to the level of 1.3250.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands while bands are narrowing.
Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3250, 1.3310, 1.3400, 1.3480.

Trading tips

Pending buy order can be placed at the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.3250 and stop-loss at 1.2900.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2940 with the target at 1.2860 and stop-loss at 1.3000.

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  #189  
Old 28-07-2016, 14:00
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USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the pair showed a volatile trade amid the publication of important news.
The pair was significantly supported by information of a possible expansion in the stimulus program in Japan that could amount to $265 billion. Later in the day, however, the Dollar was pressured by the Fed decision to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US. Better-than-forecast figure could provide additional support to the pair. Extra attention needs to be paid to tomorrow’s monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan.

Support and resistance

The pair bounced off the border of the descending channel and at present consolidated below the psychologically important level of 105.00. A breakdown of 50% Fibonacci correction could accelerate pair’s fall.
The RSI is breaking down the 50-point mark suggesting the fall could continue.
Support levels: 104.50, 103.20, 102.40.
Resistance levels: 105.30, 106.00, 106.50, 107.50.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 105.40 with targets at 106.00, 106.50.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 104.40 with targets at 103.80, 103.20.

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  #190  
Old 29-07-2016, 12:48
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XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

After a significant growth on Thursday amid the US Fed Interest Rate Decision, the price of gold slightly fell. The instrument was pressured by expectations of strong data on the US GDP for the second quarter of the year. According to forecasts, the index will grow from 1.1% to 2.6%. However, the Dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainty regarding plans of the American regulator on monetary policy tightening during this year. The probability of a rate hike at September’s meeting currently stands at only 14%.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed down while the price range is narrowing, suggesting the likelihood of a trend change. MACD is turning down. Stochastic turned up near the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 1330.01, 1327.52, 1325.53, 1323.21, 1321.05, 1318.72, 1315.74.
Resistance levels: 1336.32, 1340.46, 1342.29, 1345.28, 1346.77.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1321.00 and stop-loss at 1340.00. Validity – 1 day.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1318.70 with the target at 1323.00 and stop-loss at 1313.50. Validity – 1 day.

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  #191  
Old 30-07-2016, 21:38
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NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is going up today.


Today’s positive fundamental data triggered the rise in the NZD.

Balance of foreign trade of New Zealand, which became known earlier today, was at the level of 127 million NZD in June. Note that foreign trade balance of the country has been positive for the sixth consecutive month.

Positive effect on the rise in the pair NZD/USD was also caused by the rise in the Japanese Yen. According to Japanese media, Japanese Minister of Finance, Mr. Taro Aso said that incentive measures program were under consideration, which lowered expectations of introduction of such measures in the near future.

Japan is one of the largest trading partners of New Zealand. The decline in the USD against the Yen has affected the pair NZD/USD.

However, positive data on the New Zealand’s trade balance cannot stop the RBNZ from lowering interest rate. Last week the Bank announced its plans to lower interest rates in August.

Market participants believe that the RBNZ will lower interest rates in August or November and current interest rate at the level of 2. 25% may be reduced to 1.7% by the end of the year.

Traders will gradually switch their attention to a two-day meeting of the US Fed, which will start today. Tomorrow at 20:00 (GMT+2) Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced. It is likely that the rate will be left unchanged. US positive macro-economic statistics and mitigation of concerns about negative affect from Brexit make investors think that the Fed may raise interest rate this year.

Futures for the interest rates of the US Fed show 20% probability of the increase in rates in September against 12% this month. Probability of the rate hike in December is 51%.

Expectations of the decrease in the interest rate in New Zealand and a chance of the monetary policy tightening in the USA will be the main impetus in the pair NZD/USD until the end of the year.
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  #192  
Old 01-08-2016, 13:27
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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair grew amid statistics on the US GDP. Preliminary data showed that the American economy grew 1.2 percent in the second quarter while economists projected a 2.6 percent rise.
The pair was also supported by data on inflation in the eurozone. The Consumer Price Index grew 0.2 percent in July after a 0.1 percent gain in the previous month.
Today market participants will be following data on the Markit US Manufacturing PMI which is released at 3:45 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up. The price broke out the upper border of the range that indicates the possibility of a downward correction towards the middle MA. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.1148, 1.1115, 1.1087, 1.1010.
Resistance levels: 1.1196, 1.1276, 1.1321, 1.1365.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.1196 with targets at 1.1276, 1.1321, 1.1365 and stop-loss at 1.1166.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1087 with targets at 1.1050, 1.1010 and stop-loss at 1.1115.

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  #193  
Old 02-08-2016, 10:38
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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Today the Reserve bank of Australia announced its decision on interest rates. In line with expectations, interest rates were cut from 1.75% to 1.50% that had a strong negative impact on the AUD/USD pair.
This afternoon attention needs to be paid to a report on US personal income and spending in June. A growth in both indicators might add to pressure on the pair.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed up while the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. Stochastic has left the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7525, 0.7510, 0.7491, 0.7481, 0.7467, 0.7454, 0.7442.
Resistance levels: 0.7546, 0.7554, 0.7566, 0.7579, 0.7589, 0.7601.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.7650 and stop-loss at 0.7505. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7505 with targets at 0.7480, 0.7440 and stop-loss at 0.7525. Validity – 1-2 day.

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  #194  
Old 03-08-2016, 13:13
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Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of Brent crude oil grew slightly after the American petroleum Institute (API) reported a drawdown in US crude oil inventories. Today attention needs to be paid to data, released by the Energy Information Administration. The oil reserves in US storages are expected to be down by more than 1.8 million barrels that might provide support for the price. Dynamics in the instrument, however, is likely to remain downward as long as the global oil market remains oversupplied.

Support and resistance


On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed down, the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. Stochastic has turned up at the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 42.00, 41.72, 41.51, 41.18, 40.97.
Resistance levels: 42.41, 42.84, 43.08, 43.33, 43.61, 43.77.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 42.40 with the target at 43.08 and stop-loss at 42.00. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 41.70 with targets at 41.18, 41.00 and stop-loss at 42.00. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #195  
Old 04-08-2016, 15:05
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GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

After the Bank of England decided its cut interest rates to 0.25%, the GBP/USD pair lost more than 200 points. Having reached its low in the region of 1.3111, the price corrected up. The instrument gained moderate support when data on US Initial Jobless Claims showed a 3 000 increase to 269 000 for the week ended July 30.
On Friday market participants will turn their attention to statistics for July on US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Economists project 180 000 new jobs were created last month that is substantially below
the previous reading of 287 000. The Unemployment Rate, at the same time, is expected to be down from 4.9% to 4.8%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed down, but the price was falling below the lower band that suggests the possibility of an upward correction towards the middle MA and the level of 1.3272. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal.
Support levels: 1.3111, 1.3065, 1.3007.
Resistance levels: 1.3190, 1.3272, 1.3374.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3111 with targets at 1.3065 and 1.3007.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3272 with the target at 1.3374.

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  #196  
Old 05-08-2016, 13:07
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AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Today the pair continued growing and reached the level of 0.7665 amid commentaries from the Reserve Bank of Australia on its monetary policy. In its statement, the regulator noted that the pace of growth of the world economy remain below the average while inflation will stay below the targeted 2%-3%. Nonetheless, the regulator did not revise its economy growth forecast, which supported the AUD.
Today attention should be paid to data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US. According to forecasts, the figure will come out at 180 thousands. In case the actual data exceeds forecasts, the US Dollar might receive a significant support.

Support and resistance

The pair continues moving along the ascending channel, trading near a strong resistance level of 0.7675.
Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and continues growing.
Support levels: 0.7620, 0.7550, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7675, 0.7720, 0.7765, 0.7800.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7680 with targets at 0.7720, 0.7760 and stop-loss at 0.7650. *
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7620 with targets at 0.7550, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7650.

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  #197  
Old 08-08-2016, 14:16
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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the US Dollar gained strong support from the ADP employment report and Friday's non-farm payrolls report. At the same time, it should be noted that US trade deficit widened to $44.50 billion that is considered as a negative factor for the American currency.
Favorable data on Germany’s industrial production was released in this morning. In June industrial output grew 0.5% and 0.8% in monthly and annual terms respectively.
On Tuesday dynamics in the pair might be influenced by data on Germany’s trade balance. A strong growth in the country’s exports and favorable data on trade surplus could support the European currency.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and lower lines of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are gradually growing. Stochastic is moving up.
Support levels: 1.1070, 1.1040, 1.1015, 1.0990, 1.0965, 1.0950.
Resistance levels: 1.1105, 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1185, 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1250.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1060 with the target at 1.1015 and stop-loss at 1.1080.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1110 with the target at 1.1160 and stop-loss at 1.1090.
Validity – 1-3 days.

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  #198  
Old 09-08-2016, 14:20
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AUD/USD: in ascending trend

Current trend

The pair continues moving along a narrow ascending channel that was formed in the end of June.
The pair was supported by the RBA decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged which increased demand for the Australian currency amid growing appetite for risk assets. At the same time, the US Dollar was pressure by poor statistics on country’s GDP for the second quarter of the year that substantially lowered the probability of an interest rate hike before the end of the year.
This week, extra attention needs to be paid to data on Home Loans from Australia and Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index in the US.

Support and resistance

In the short-term, there is a chance of a downward correction towards the lower border of the channel at the level of 0.7635 that coincides with the middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, from where the growth will resume. At the same time, if the RBA cuts the interest rate, the price could break down the lower border of the channel and fall to the level of 0.7565.

Technical indicators suggest a growth continuation. Bollinger bands are directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing.

Support levels: 0.7635, 0.7600, 0.7565, 0.7530, 0.7500, 0.7450, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7300, 0.7150.
Resistance levels: 0.7670, 0.7685, 0.7715, 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7835.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current levels and from the levels of 0.7635, 0.7600 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7835.

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  #199  
Old 10-08-2016, 13:22
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USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues consolidating near the level of 101.10. Yesterday, the Yen strengthened against the Dollar amid the publication of data on the Nonfarm Productivity in the US. In the second quarter of the year, the index fell by 0.5% while experts predicted a growth of 0.4%. In the first quarter, the index declined by 0.6%.
Today attention needs to be paid to the Monthly Budget Statement in the US. According to forecasts, the budget deficit will amount to $129.9 billion, which could pressure the Dollar.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues moving along the descending channel. Trade volumes remain low.
Technical indicators do not give a clear trading signal. Bollinger bands are directed horizontally. Stochastic is in the oversold zone.
Support levels: 101.10, 100.65, 100.00.
Resistance levels: 101.70, 102.10, 102.60.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 101.70 with targets at 102.10, 102.60 and stop-loss at 101.50.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 101.10 with the target at 100.65 and stop-loss at 101.00.

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  #200  
Old 11-08-2016, 14:48
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EUR/USD: growth possibility remains

Current trend
This week, the pair recovered the losses it incurred last Friday when the US released strong data on the labour market. At present, the price corrected to the region of the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and attempts to resume its growth. Critical for Bulls seems to be the level of 1.1166 that coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci correction. Its breakout would lead to a growth continuation to the levels of 1.1200, 1.1233, and possibly 1.1270. For Bears, crucial would be the level of 1.1125 that coincides with the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, a breakdown of which would open the way towards the levels of 1.1090, 1.1058 and 1.1015.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall that might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators give contradicting signals. Bollinger bands are directed up. Stochastic lines turned down. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 1.1125, 1.1090, 1.1058, 1.1015.
Resistance levels: 1.1166, 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1166 with targets at 1.1200, 1.1233, 1.1270 and stop-loss at 1.1130. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1125 with targets at 1.1090, 1.1058 and stop-loss at 1.1155. Validity – 2-3 days.

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