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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

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  #121  
Old 11-04-2016, 13:52
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USD/JPY: technical analysis

USD/JPY, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is correcting up as it has formed four closes below the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is trying to turn up near its strong support in the oversold zone. The Composite is trying to turn up as well.

USD/JPY, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is forming a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing a similar behavior.

Key levels
Support levels: 107.59 (local lows), 107.23 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the long-term trend), 104.59 (2000 lows).
Resistance levels: 109.09 (local highs), 109.99 (61.8% retracement for the short-term trend), 110.85 (February lows).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 108.95, 109.75 and stop-loss at 107.55. Validity – 3-4 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 107.10 with the target at 104.89 and stop-loss at 107.82. Validity – 3-4 days.


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  #122  
Old 12-04-2016, 11:09
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
This week, the Pound continues strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair has gained support amid expectations of relatively favorable statistics on the UK economy. Today the data showed the Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% in monthly terms against the forecast of 0.3%. In annual terms, the indicator was up by 0.5% while analysts expected it to come in at 0.4%. As a result, the pair gained more than 200 points.
Today market participant will be following data from the US. In particular, Export and Import Prices Indices are due at 2:30 (GMT+2) and the Monthly Budget Statement is released at 8:00 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price range of Bollinger Bands is widening. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4255, 1.4225, 1.4176, 1.4140.
Resistance levels: 1.4318, 1.4370, 1.4405, 1.4456.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.4318 is broken out with targets at 1.4370, 1.4405 and stop-loss at 1.4290.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.4255 with targets at 1.4225, 1.4176 and stop-loss at 1.4282.

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  #123  
Old 13-04-2016, 13:11
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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
This week, the USD/CAD pair has been moving down. The downward dynamics has been developing amid expectations of important macroeconomic releases both in the US and Canada which can result in a trend reversal.
In the second half of the day, data on Retail Sales is due in the US. If the favorable forecast is confirmed, the US Dollar will gain support. Later on, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision. Precise attention should also be paid to the Rate Statement and the subsequent Press Conference of the Regulator.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down while the price range is widening. The price broken down the lower MA of the indicator suggesting the downward trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are growing. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and can turn up in the short run.
According to the indicators, short positions seem more preferable.
Support levels: 1.2636, 1.2552, 1.2279, 1.2133.
Resistance levels: 1.2928, 1.3053, 1.3221, 1.3286, 1.3417, 1.3585, 1.3856, 1.4106.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out the level of 1.3053 with targets at 1.3221, 1.3286 and stop-loss at 1.2780. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1.2636, 1.2552 and stop-loss at 1.3053. Validity – 1-3 days.


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  #124  
Old 14-04-2016, 13:55
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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The data for March showed unemployment in Australia was down by 0.1% to 5.7%. A decline in unemployment rate indicates a favorable situation in the labour market and strengthens the national currency. The indicator of employment change exceeded the forecast and came in at 26.1K that suggests an increase in consumer spending and has a positive impact on economic growth. Amid these favorable statistics, the AUD/USD pair gained 70 points.
Data on Consumer Price Index are due today in the US. If favorable forecast is confirmed, a growth in the pair can slow down.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are growing. Stochastic is directed up near the border of the overbought zone.
Support levels: 0.7670, 0.7640, 0.7620, 0.7600, 0.7200, 0.7590, 0.7560, 0.7540, 0.7520, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7710, 0.7720, 0.7740.

Trading tips
After the price consolidates above the level of 0.7700, long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7710 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7690.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7670 with targets at 0.7640, 0.7620 and stop-loss at 0.7690.
Validity – 2-3 days.

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  #125  
Old 15-04-2016, 11:41
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USD/CAD: consolidation near local lows

Current trend
At the end of the week, the Canadian Dollar has been trading mixed against the US Dollar. Having reached new local lows on Wednesday, the pair has started correcting up amid the statements made by the Federal Reserve officials.
The results of the recent Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting had a high impact on the market. However, it should be noted the Canadian currency started strengthening some time after the results were released.
As expected, interest rates were kept unchanged at 0.5% as commodity markets instability affects the process of Canada’s economic recovery. At the same time, the regulator revised up its forecast for 2016 that can be explained by the recent growth in oil prices.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed down while the price range is getting narrower. MACD is slightly growing and still keeping its sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up indicating the possibility of an upward correction in the short term.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2744 (13 April low), 1.2700 (mid-July 2015 level), 1.2650.
Resistance levels: 1.2857, 1.2897 (14 April high), 1.2952, 1.3000 (11 April level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3180 (7 April high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebounds at the level of 1.2800 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.2740.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.2744 is broken down with targets at 1.2650, 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2800.


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  #126  
Old 18-04-2016, 11:01
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GBP/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
At the beginning of the trading week, the GBP/JPY pair has been correcting amid expectations of important macroeconomic releases.
Data on adjusted merchandise trade balance is due in Japan on Wednesday. Analysts predict the indicator will grow from 242.8 billion to 834.6 billion. Thus, Japan is expected to post a trade surplus of almost 600 billion that will have a positive impact on the economy and the national currency. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to data on unemployment in the UK. An expected decline in the Claimant Count Change will support the country’s economy and strengthen the Pound. If the indicator remains unchanged or grows, the Pound is likely to come under pressure, and the GBP/JPY pair can substantially weaken.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and is giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is falling in the middle of its range.
In general, the indicators are giving a weak sell signal.
Support levels: 151.81, 149.92, 147.93, 145.08.
Resistance levels: 153.45, 155.74, 157.21, 159.34, 162.29, 163.60, 165.40.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 157.21 with targets at 162.29, 163.60 and stop-loss at 153.45. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 151.81 with targets at 147.93, 145.08 and stop-loss at 157.21. Validity – 2-4 days.

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  #127  
Old 19-04-2016, 13:24
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XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Despite unsuccessful negotiations in Doha, the price of gold has been growing since the opening of the trading session today. The growth is supported by weak data on the US economy, released last week, and uncertainty over future rate increases in the country. The uncertainty has risen due to recent statement made by the Fed representative William Dudley. Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits for March, published in the US.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD histogram remains in the positive zone and is keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is moving in the middle of its range.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1233.23, 1223.81, 1215.29, 1209.17, 1201.53, 1194.97, 1190.38.
Resistance levels: 1248.06, 1256.58, 1261.50, 1267.31, 1278.95, 1282.59.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1233.23 is broken down with the target at 1209.17 and stop-loss at 1248.06. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1256.58, 1261.50 and stop-loss at 1233.23. Validity – 1-3 days.


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  #128  
Old 20-04-2016, 13:33
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AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid strengthening in oil prices and the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia at the beginning of the week. The New Motor Vehicle Sales grew by 2.2% against the previous month that indicates that the consumer confidence is increasing.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US. A lower reading could support the pair.

Support and resistance
The pair is consolidating near the level of 0.7820. In the nearest term, the price could decline to the level of 0.7730, but the main upward trend will remain. A trend change would be possible after a price consolidation below the lower border of the ascending channel.
Support levels: 0.7730, 0.7640, 0.7590.
Resistance levels: 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7930.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 0.7790 с with the target at 0.7735 and stop-loss at 0.7810.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7800 with targets at 0.7850, 0.7900 and stop-loss at 0.7740.

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  #129  
Old 21-04-2016, 12:49
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GBP/AUD: general analysis

Current trend
This week, the pair remains under pressure due to weak statistics from the UK and a series of favorable news from Australia. Yesterday morning, data on Claimant Count Change showed a growth by 6.7K while analysts expected the indicator to be down by 10K.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales, due in the UK, and speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands is declining. The pair is trading down in the lower part of the price range. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is near the 20 mark.
According to the indicators, short positions are more preferable.
Support levels: 1.8265, 1.8094, 1.7841, 1.7737, 1.7175.
Resistance levels: 1.8494, 1.8622, 1.8769, 1.8889, 1.8950, 1.9072, 1.9239, 1.9513, 1.9663.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.8622 with the target at 1.8950 and stop-loss at 1.8494. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.8265 with the target at 1.8094 and stop-loss at 1.8494. Validity – 3-5 days.


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  #130  
Old 22-04-2016, 13:42
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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair substantially strengthened amid the publication of labour market data in the US. Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 247 thousands while economists predicted a growth to 263 thousands. In addition, the number of Continuous Claims shrank by almost 40 thousands.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Price Index in Canada and Markit PMI’s in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band while the price range narrowed, which indicates that the trend will likely change in the nearest future. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic has left the overbought zone suggesting a fall continuation.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 1.2691, 1.2644, 1.2619, 1.2591.
Resistance levels: 1.2752, 1.2764, 1.2794, 1.2855, 1.2889, 1.2944, 1.2993.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2764 with the target at 1.2855 and stop-loss at 1.2691. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2691 with the target at 1.2619 and stop-loss at 1.2752. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #131  
Old 25-04-2016, 08:42
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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

On Monday the GBP/USD pair opened with a gap up at 1.4462 and then corrected down to the level of 1.4420.

Support and resistance
The price range of Bollinger Bands is widening. The pair broke out the upper MA but then returned into the range and may continue moving down towards the middle MA of the indicator.

Support levels: 1.4420, 1.4370, 1.4330, 1.4280.
Resistance levels: 1.4490, 1.4550.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current levels with targets at 1.4370, 1.4280 and stop-loss at 1.4490.

Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 1.4490 with the target at 1.4550 and stop-loss at 1.4220.

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  #132  
Old 26-04-2016, 08:24
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EUR/JPY: fall resumed

Current trend
Yesterday the pair resumed its fall after some strengthening in the previous week.
The Euro was pressured by weak data from Germany where the IFO Business Climate in April fell from 106.7 to 106.6 points, while experts predicted a growth to 107.0 points. Furthermore, the IFO Expectations came out worse than forecasts as well amounting to 100.4 points. *
At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure prior to the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. According to expectations, the Japanese regulator could proceed with further monetary policy easing.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. However, the price is trading above its upper border thus indicating the possibility of a downward correction. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic continues growing while in the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 125.00 (local low), 124.22, 123.57 (21 April low), 123.06, 122.54, 122.07, 121.71 (18 April low).
Resistance levels: 125.53 (local high), 126.16, 126.62, 127.30, 128.21 (31 March high), 128.75.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 125.53 with targets at 126.16, 126.62 and stop-loss at 124.70. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 125.00 with the target at 123.00 and stop-loss at 125.53. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #133  
Old 27-04-2016, 13:36
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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued falling amid the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics in the US. Durable Goods Orders grew by 0.8% while economists forecasted a 1.8% growth, while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices grew by 5.4% that was also worse than forecasts. In addition, the Consumer Confidence fell to 64.2 points, against the forecasted 96.0 points.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to the US Fed Interest Rate Decision. According to forecasts, there will be no changes in monetary policy.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band, while bands are directed down and widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, giving a sell signal. Stochastic is giving a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2548.
Resistance levels: 1.2633, 1.2656, 1.2717, 1.2742, 1.2779, 1.2822, 1.2896.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.2574, 1.2548 and stop-loss at 1.2633. Validity – 1-2 days.

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2656 with targets at 1.2742, 1.2779 and stop-loss at 1.2633. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #134  
Old 28-04-2016, 10:14
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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which was slightly pressured by yesterday’s Fed Interest Rate Decision.

As was expected, the rate remained unchanged. The statement, however, did not contain any hints on its possible increase at the July meeting. At the same time, employment in the US keeps growing that will later accelerate wages and inflation growth. In addition, strengthening oil prices will increase inflationary pressures as well. Therefore, the possibility of the next interest rate hike in the nearest term is quite high.

Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in the ascending channel.
The nearest support level is at 1.1295.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1342.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1342 with the target at 1.1386 and stop-loss at 1.1325.

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  #135  
Old 29-04-2016, 09:18
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NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
The New Zealand Dollar was significantly supported by the RBNZ decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged at the current 2.25%, which allowed the pair to strengthen by more than 180 points. In addition, the pair was supported by today’s data on the ANZ Business Confidence. In March, the index grew from 3.2 to 6.2 points.

Today attention also needs to be paid to data on Personal Income and Personal Spending in the US. According to forecasts, indices will grow that might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is growing along the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is falling after it has left the overbought zone.

Support levels: 0.6960, 0.6930, 0.6915, 0.6885, 0.6850, 0.6820, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7070.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7000 with targets at 0.7040, 0.7070 and stop-loss at 0.6980. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6960 with targets at 0.6915, 0.6885 and stop-loss at 0.6980. Validity – 1-3 days.

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  #136  
Old 02-05-2016, 13:22
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AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair significantly fell amid the publication of weak data on the Consumer Price Index in Australia. In the first quarter, the index fell by 0.2% while economists forecasted a 0.3% growth.

At the same time, the pair was supported by today’s data on TD Securities Inflation from Australia that showed a 0.1% growth in the index. Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI’s from the US. Data above the forecasts might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are almost not changing. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7560, 0.7540, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7650, 0.7670, 0.7700, 0.7725, 0.7750, 0.7780, 0.7830.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7650 with targets at 0.7700, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.7610. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7610 with targets at 0.7580, 0.7560 and stop-loss at 0.7630. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #137  
Old 03-05-2016, 10:11
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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid strengthening in the GPB. The Pound is supported by a substantially increased probability that the UK will remain in the European Union. According to the latest survey, the number of those ready to vote for staying in the EU exceeds the number of supporters of country’s exit.

In addition, the Pound was supported by the Bank of England decision to leave unchanged its key interest rate and the size of its quantitative easing program. At the same time, consumer inflation remains far from the Bank’s target of 2%, so in the nearest future monetary policy will stay easy.

Support and resistance
The price broke out the upper border of the sideways channel and is currently consolidating above it.
The RSI reached the 70 mark suggesting the possibility of a downward correction.

The nearest support level is at 1.4694.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.4755.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.4735 with the target at 1.4690 and stop-loss at 1.4755.

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  #138  
Old 04-05-2016, 09:43
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NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly fell amid the publication of weak statistics on manufacturing production in China. In addition, the pair was pressured by today’s labour market data from New Zealand, where the Unemployment Rate grew from 5.3% to 5.7% while economists predicted a growth to 5.5%.

Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the ADP Employment Change and Trade Balance in the US. According to forecasts, the trade balance deficit will shrink to 41.5 billion USD, while the number of employed will amount to 196 thousands. The data could provide additional support to the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic is turning up in the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.6885, 0.6850, 0.6820, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.6915, 0.6930, 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7070.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.6930, 0.6960, 0.6980 and stop-loss at 0.6870. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6860 with targets at 0.6820, 0.6800 and stop-loss at 0.6885. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #139  
Old 05-05-2016, 11:56
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USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair strengthened. The American currency was supported by favorable macroeconomic statistics, released in the US in the afternoon. In particular, the US trade deficit shrank from $47.00 billion to $40.40 billion, exceeding the forecast of $41.50 billion. Moreover, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was up from 54.7 to 55.7 points.

On Friday dynamics in the pair can be influenced by data on Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls, due in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting at the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are falling. The indicator is forming a buy signal. Stochastic has turned down in the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 106.90, 106.62, 106.24, 106.02, 105.71.
Resistance levels: 107.56, 107.97, 108.40, 108.91, 109.31.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the level of 106.62 is broken down with the target at 105.71 and stop-loss at 106.90. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened after the level of 107.56 is broken out with the target at 107.97 and stop-loss at 106.90. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #140  
Old 06-05-2016, 10:42
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Brent: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil corrected up and tested the level of 46.67, but could not consolidate above it. The price was supported by news that forest fires in Canada curbed its oil production.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the Non-farm Payrolls that is due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). Growth in the index might support the US Dollar and pressure oil prices.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Bollinger bands are directed down suggesting the downward tendency will continue.

Support levels: 44.00, 43.00, 42.00.
Resistance levels: 45.00, 46.00, 47.26, 48.15.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 44.00 with targets at 43.00, 42.00 and stop-loss at 44.65.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 46.00 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 45.35.

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  #141  
Old 10-05-2016, 12:38
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EUR/USD: Euro remains under pressure

Current trend
Last Friday the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak data on the US labour market, but closed near its opening levels on the day. The US Nonfarm Payrolls for April came out at 160 thousands, which was 40 thousand worse than expectations of economists.

At the same time, the Dollar was supported by data on the Average Weekly Hours and Average Hourly Earnings that showed moderate growth. In addition, the Consumer Credit Change in March increased from 14.14 to 29.67 billion Dollars that was substantially better than the forecasts.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a moderate sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and continues falling.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 1.1379 (local low), 1.1339, 1.1321, 1.1300 (28 April low), 1.1269, 1.1233, 1.1200 (29 March low), 1.1143.
Resistance levels: 1.1400 (local high), 1.1437, 1.1464, 1.1500 (4 May high), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 May high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1400 with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541 and stop-loss at 1.1350. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1379 with targets at 1.1300, 1.1269 and stop-loss at 1.1437. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #142  
Old 10-05-2016, 14:18
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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the middle of last week, the pair was growing amid publications of poor macroeconomic statistics in Canada. The Trade Balance deficit increased from 2.47 to 3.41 billion Canadian Dollars, while the Net Employment Change declined by 2.1 thousands, which was substantially worse than forecasts.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the JOLTS Jobs Opening in the US. The index is expected to fall from 5.445 to 5.412 thousands that might pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is expanding. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is trying to turn up.

The indicators recommend long positions.

Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2906, 1.2841, 1.2794, 1.2698, 1.2640, 1.2574, 1.2538, 1.2492.
Resistance levels: 1.2967, 1.3018, 1.3056, 1.3084, 1.3125.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.3018 and stop-loss at 1.2937. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3018 with targets at 1.2906 and stop-loss at 1.3056. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #143  
Old 11-05-2016, 13:12
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EUR/USD: technical analysis

EUR/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is trying to turn up in the Bullish zone above the 50 mark. The Composite is trying to turn up as well.

EUR/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trying to break out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are directed horizontally. The RSI is growing having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite developed a larger upward move suggesting limited growth potential in the pair.

Key levels

Support levels: 1.1357 (local lows), 1.1219 (end of April lows), 1.1139 (end of March lows).

Resistance levels: 1.1466 (psychologically important level), 1.1532 (February 2015 lows), 1.1602 (local highs).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1234 and stop-loss at 1.1385. Validity – 2-3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1476 with targets at 1.1522, 1.1582 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #144  
Old 12-05-2016, 13:41
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been declining. The European currency remains under pressure, as Italy’s banking system is facing difficulties due to the increased number of bad loans. Many commercial banks need additional capital, and shares in Banco Popolare, one of Italy’s largest banks, lost 14 percent.

Weak data on the eurozone’s industrial production has had a negative impact on the Euro as well. The indicator came in at -0.8%, far below analysts’ forecast.

Support and resistance

RSI has reached the 36 level, and the pair still has potential for further fall. A correction can start from the level of 1.1364.

The nearest support level is at 1.1364.

The nearest resistance level is at 1.1449.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1400 and stop-loss at 1.1345.

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  #145  
Old 17-05-2016, 10:31
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of last week, the pair is in consolidation having fallen by 50 points for the week. At the same time, yesterday the fall continued amid the publication of weak data in the US and due to uncertainty regarding the pace of interest rates hikes in the US.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits and the Core Consumer Price Index in the US. According to forecasts, the indices will grow that might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and the bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic turned up as it bounced off the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2851, 1.2825, 1.2800, 1.2780.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2906, 1.2933, 1.2961, 1.2979, 1.3001.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.2933, 1.2961 and stop-loss at 1.2851. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.2880 with targets at 1.2825, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2906. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #146  
Old 18-05-2016, 12:25
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair slightly strengthened amid the publication of strong statistics in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% while economists predicted a growth of 0.3%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index n.s.a increased to 239.260 and Housing Starts grew to 1.172 million.

At the same time, the Yen was supported by today’s data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter, the index came out at 1.7%, instead of a forecasted 0.2% growth.
Today attention also needs to be paid to the FOMC Minutes in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are minimal. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 109.35, 108.90, 108.50, 108.10, 107.65, 107.00, 106.50, 105.75, 105.35.
Resistance levels: 109.65, 110.00, 110.30, 110.75, 111.00, 111.25, 111.60, 112.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 109.30 with targets at 109.00, 108.50 and stop-loss at 109.45. Validity – 1-3 days.

Long positons can be opened from the level of 109.65 with targets at 110.00, 110.30 and stop-loss at 109.50. Validity – 1-3 days.

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  #147  
Old 19-05-2016, 09:13
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AUD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid a large number of macroeconomic publications in Japan and Australia.
The Yen was supported by strong data on the Japanese GDP. In the first quarter of the year, the index grew by 1.7% that substantially exceeded forecasts of economists of a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Australian Dollar was pressured by weak data on the labour market of the country. The Employment Change increased by 10.8 thousands, which was worse than expectations of experts who predicted a 12.5 thousands growth, and worse than the previous figure of 25.7 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate did not show an expected increase and remained unchanged.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic turned sideways near the middle of its range.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 79.20 (local low), 78.62 (16 May low), 78.16 (6 May low), 77.57 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 79.52 (local high), 80.00 (psychologically important level), 80.34, 80.64 (11 May high), 81.00, 81.60, 82.00 (29 April high), 82.45, 83.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 80.00 with targets at 81.00, 81.60 and stop-loss at 79.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 78.62 with targets at 77.57, 77.00 and stop-loss at 79.20. Validity – 2-4 days.


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  #148  
Old 20-05-2016, 09:36
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USD/CAD: pair is growing

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid a significant strengthening in the US Dollar. The American currency was supported by the publication of April FOMC Minutes that substantially increased the probability of an interest rate hike in the US at June’s meeting of the regulator. According to the Federal Funds futures, at present the probability stands at more than 30%.
At the same time, the pair was slightly pressured amid expectations of the release of inflation data in Canada, which is due later today.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is turning horizontally as it reached the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3037 (local low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2900, 1.2844, 1.2800 (12 May low), 1.2757.
Resistance levels: 1.3100 (local high), 1.3153 (local high), 1.3218 (5 April high), 1.3300, 1.3370 (16 March high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3218, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3037. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3000 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #149  
Old 23-05-2016, 12:26
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
Today the Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair was pressured by the publication of data on the Trade Balance in Japan. The balance surplus increased from 755 to 824 billion Yen, while experts expected it to fall to 492.8 billion.
Today attention needs to be paid to preliminary data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the US.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed horizontally and the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and forming a weak buy signal. Stochastic left the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 109.16, 108.67, 107.87, 106.22, 105.72.
Resistance levels: 110.14, 110.63, 111.61, 112.28, 113.71.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 108.67 and stop-loss at 110.14. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 108.67 with targets at 110.14, 111.61 and stop-loss at 107.87. Validity – 2-4 days.

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  #150  
Old 24-05-2016, 12:49
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Brent: general review

Current trend
The price of Brent crude oil tested the level of 49.00 several times but could not consolidate above it yet. Since the end of last week, the price has been trading in a narrow range of 47.55-49.34 while market volatility remains low.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing, which suggests the downward movement is forming.
Support levels: 47.55, 46.77, 45.90.
Resistance levels: 48.50, 49.34, 50.00.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 47.55 with targets at 46.77, 45.90 and stop-loss at 48.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 48.50 with targets at 49.34, 50.00 and stop-loss at 48.00.

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  #151  
Old 25-05-2016, 12:12
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NZD/USD: pair is growing

Current trend
Today the pair is growing amid the publication of strong data in New Zealand. In April, Exports from the country grew from 4.2 billion to 4.3 billion New Zealand Dollars that was slightly better than forecasts of economists. In addition, the Trade Balance surplus increased to 292 million NZD, while exports expected the surplus to decline to 60 million NZD. At the same time, Imports slightly fell, from 4.09 billion to 4.01 billion NZD.

The pair, however, is still pressured by the strengthening US Dollar, which is supported by the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is trying to turn up having formed a buy signal. Stochastic turned up as well.
Support levels: 0.6746 (local low), 0.6715, 0.6700 (local low), 0.6667 (28 March low).
Resistance levels: 0.6780 (local high), 0.6800 (23 May high), 0.6823, 0.6847 (12 May high), 0.6873, 0.6900 (5 May high), 0.6934, 0.6965.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6800 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.6873, 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.6750. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6800 with the target at 0.6700 and stop-loss at 0.6830. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #152  
Old 26-05-2016, 12:35
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CHF: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell amid the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Switzerland, where the UBS Consumption Indicator grew from 1.40 to 1.47 points. In addition, the Dollar was pressured by weak data on the Markit Services PMI in the US. In May, the index fell from 52.8 to 51.2 points.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims in the US. Forecasts realisation could pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price bounced off the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and formed a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is falling, after it turned down near the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 0.9896, 0.9886, 0.9879, 0.9871, 0.9862.
Resistance levels: 0.9906, 0.9910, 0.9915, 0.9921, 0.9924, 0.9929, 0.9934.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 0.9886 and stop-loss at 0.9910. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.9910 with the target at 0.9934 and stop-loss at 0.9896. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #153  
Old 31-05-2016, 12:59
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid weakening in the GBP. The Pound was pressured by poor data on the GDP for the first quarter of the year in the UK. On a year-to-year basis, the index came out at 2.0%, which was 0.1% worse than forecasts. In addition, the Total Business Investment in the country in the previous quarter declined by 0.5%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data from the US, where the first quarter of the year GDP is due. Experts predict growth in the index to 0.9%.

Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in the ascending channel. In case of a price consolidation below the level of 1.4610, the fall is likely to continue towards the lower border of the channel.

Support levels: 1.4610, 1.4540, 1.4485. *
Resistance levels: 1.4680, 1.4740, 1.4780.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 1.4610 with targets at 1.4540, 1.4490 and stop-loss at 1.4640.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4680 with the target at 1.4740 and stop-loss at 1.4650.

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  #154  
Old 31-05-2016, 14:04
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Today the pair significantly grew amid a publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia. Building Permits in April increased by 3% instead of a forecasted decline of 2.8%, while the Private Sector Credit rose from 6.4% to 6.7%.
Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Confidence in the US. Growth in the index will pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band, while bands are directed down and the price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and signalling sales. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 0.7216, 0.7182, 0.7137, 0.7107, 0.7067, 0.7054, 0.7004.
Resistance levels: 0.7288, 0.7334, 0.7364, 0.7406, 0.7451.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 0.7288 and stop-loss at 0.7216. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7288 with targets at 0.7182, 0.7107 and stop-loss at 0.7334. Validity – 1-3 days.

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  #155  
Old 02-06-2016, 10:52
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GBP/JPY: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair continues falling. The Pound was pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK where the Consumer Credit shrank from 1.822 to 1.298 million Pounds, against a forecasted decline to 1.6 million. In addition, Mortgage Approvals fell from 70.31 to 66.25 thousands.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the PMI Construction and BOE’s Governor Carney speech in the UK.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is falling after broking down the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and keeping a sell signal.

The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 156.56, 155.56, 154.44, 153.38.
Resistance levels: 158.08, 158.87, 159.60, 160.33, 161.25, 163.10, 163.83, 165.02.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 154.44 and stop-loss at 159.60. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 158.87 with targets at 160.33, 163.10 and stop-loss at 156.56. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #156  
Old 03-06-2016, 13:17
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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
During the week, the USD/CAD pair has been gradually growing. Yesterday the Canadian Dollar was under pressure, as results of the OPEC meeting in Vienna accelerated a fall in oil prices. Though the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada said Canada’s economic prospects are seen as generally favorable, the national currency did not managed to gain due support. At the same time, the US Dollar strengthened amid macroeconomic statistics on US labour market and commentaries of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.
Today precise attention needs to be paid to data on the Unemployment Rate and the Nonfarm Payrolls, released in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally, the price range has narrowed that suggests the possibility of a trend reversal. MACD histogram is slightly growing and remains near the zero line. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3084, 1.3076, 1.3065, 1.3055, 1.3041.
Resistance levels: 1.3094, 1.3103, 1.3112, 1.3119, 1.3132, 1.3142, 1.3153.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.312 and stop-loss at 1.3065. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.3084 is broken down with targets at 1.3065, 1.3055 and stop-loss at 1.3103. Validity – 1-2 days.

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  #157  
Old 06-06-2016, 14:45
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EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics in the US, where the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at only 38 thousands, while economists predicted 164 thousands. The data lowered the probability of an interest rate hike at June’s meeting of the Fed to 4% that lead to a drop in the US against all major currencies.
Today attention needs to be paid to Fed’s Yellen speech that could determine Dollar’s dynamics for the nearest future.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair bounced off the lower border of the ascending channel and broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which indicates further growth potential.
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1130, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1540.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1380 with targets at 1.1450, 1.1540 and stop-loss at 1.1350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1220 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

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  #158  
Old 07-06-2016, 13:37
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week, the EUR/USD pair grew amid weak US labour market data. In particular, the Nonfarm payrolls came in at 38 thousands. However, there still a good chance of the Federal Reserve tightening its monetary policy this summer that may strengthen the US Dollar.

The Euro remains under pressure from a fall in German bond yields. Moreover, as long as there is still uncertainty around Brexit vote, the American currency may get support.

Support and resistance
RSI is below 70 suggesting the possibility of a price fall in the short term.
The nearest support level is at 1.1322.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1379.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1360 with the target at 1.1322 and stop-loss at 1.1380.

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  #159  
Old 08-06-2016, 09:57
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AUD/USD

Current trend
On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair strengthened to its new local high being supported by results of the RBA monetary policy meeting.

RBA’s assessment of economic prospects was quite optimistic, and interest rates were left unchanged at 1.75%. The Regulator believes that the current monetary policy would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy. However, inflation in Australia is expected to remain quite low for some time, but some signs of improvement are seen here as well.

The US Dollar, in its turn, is still under pressure from weak US labour market data and due to uncertainty regarding Fed’s tightening of monetary policy in the coming months.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a strong growth while the price range is widening actively. However, the price remains above the upper MA that indicates a downward correction possibility. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has reached its highs in the overbought zoned and turned horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.7426, 0.7400, 0.7369 (7 June level), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (near 2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low).
Resistance levels: 0.7463 (7 June high), 0.7500 (5 May level), 0.7533, 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 (3 May level).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7463 and 0.7500 are broken out with targets at 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 and stop-loss at 0.7426, 0.7400. Validity – 2-4 days.

Short positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7426, 0.7400 are broken down with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7463. Validity – 2-3 days.


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  #160  
Old 09-06-2016, 13:51
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Today the pair significantly fell after ECB President Draghi speech, in which he pointed out to long-term risks for the economy of the eurozone from a prolonged low pace of its growth. He also asserted that the regulator would do everything that is necessary in order to return inflation to its target levels.

In addition, the pair is pressured by approaching referendum in the UK. The country’s exit from the EU could lead to a crisis in the eurozone.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the US labour market. Weak data might pressure the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators suggest a fall continuation. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger bands turned horizontally. Stochastic is moving down.
Support levels: 1.1340, 1.1280, 1.1225.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1415, 1.1480.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.1375 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1400, and after the price consolidation below the level of 1.1330 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1225 and stop-loss at 1.1360.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1415 with targets at 1.1480, 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1400.

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