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  #1  
Old 06-08-2015, 11:24
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Default Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 6th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has a short term support level near the 1.0850’s and resistance levels around 1.0990’s – 1.1020’s. The short term trend is now negative, and trading in line with the ECB’s dovish position to increase the supply of EURs on the market. Short term EURUSD traders may look to re-sell into strength if prices extend past the 1.0990’s – 1.1020’s resistance levels, ideally between the 1.10’s – 1.1050’s for a 1.0750’s price target.

Further negativity on the EUR comes from the much weaker than expected Eurozone retail sales, which fell 0.6% m/m, keeping the euro under pressure, offsetting an upward revision in final Eurozone services and composite PMI survey data for July. The fact that both the U.S. and the U.K. are seeking to raise their rates is giving traders enough reasons to support both the US dollar and the British pound, adding to EUR selling pressures.

On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment report missed expectations; however, the July services ISM posted a 10-year high. The EURUSD rallied to session highs around 1.0930 after the employment data, and then fell to session lows near 1.0850 following the ISM outcome.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)
The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The AUD is trading lower against the majors as commodity prices have been weakening. CFTC data also reports that net speculative short positions have increased for the AUD. The USD, EUR, GBP and JPY are all trading mixed as traders await GBP data.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: The central bank is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 25 bp. Today is the inaugural BoE “Super Thursdays”‘, which will include the instant-release of the MPC minutes and the latest Quarterly Inflation Report. Governor Carney will also lead a one-hour press conference. The minutes will likely reveal a hawkish shift at the BoE, with MPC members Weale and McCafferty seen resuming their vote in favour of a 25 bp rate hike (having voted for this between August and December last year), though still be outvoted by 7 to 2. Carney will likely maintain that the next move will be a hike, but still present a relatively balanced view in line with market expectations for tightening to start in February next year. The BoE is also likely to trim near-term inflation forecasts given sterling’s trade-weighted strength, the recent decline in oil prices, and signs that productivity is improving, though at the same time is likely to flag upside risk further down the track.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #2  
Old 07-08-2015, 10:22
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 7th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 7th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to contract and trade within a narrow three day range ahead of today’s U.S. Nonfarm payrolls economic data release. The Bollinger band EURUSD trend analysis on the daily chart indicates that volatility is narrowing, which is typical before the release of a major economic report. Price over the last three trading sessions has stayed below the 20 period simple moving average, however, a bullish cross is observed within the Stochastic Momentum Oscillator indicator. The fact that price remains well contained within the multi-week downward moving channel and the bullish cross observation that has accrued below the Stochastic 20 level indicates oversold market conditions in the short term.

The Bank of England’s first “Super Thursday” sent Sterling down sharply; the BoE left monetary policy unchanged. The BoE is slowly preparing for the first rate hike, however, they are in no rush to move. The GBPUSD closed sharply lower for the day down around 170 pips from the day’s high in the wake of the day’s heavy GBP economic calendar.

The USD backed off during N.Y. trade on Thursday after decent weekly jobless claims gave the USD some early support. Real U.S. GDP grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter, according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trade, with China and Japan up. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as widely expected.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading lower against the majors after the BoE highlighted that it’s in no rush to raise rates. The AUD is trading higher as the BoA remains upbeat about the domestic economy, and demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Nonfarm Payrolls: July nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 215k, with a 205k private payroll gain. The market risk if payrolls are downward, could impact the timing of rate hikes. If upward, should provide some tail wind.

• USD Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3% from June.
The workweek is expected to hold at 34.5 for a fifth month.

• CAD Net Change in Employment: Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in July after the 6.4k drop in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #3  
Old 10-08-2015, 11:44
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 10th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to recover from oversold market conditions as the USD traded lower on Friday, even though the jobs report largely met expectations. The odds for a U.S. Fed September rate hike seem more likely with the non-farm payroll report pointing to strong U.S. job growth. The EUR barely changed in early Monday trade against the dollar but is up against most other currencies. The European calendar is pretty quiet today, with French business confidence from the Bank of France and Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone. Technically, the EURUSD is holding a multi-week succession of lower tops and bottoms. We could see a third attempt for an upward attack on the 1.1120’s as a price bounce off the 1.0850’s, ahead of the resumption of the multi-week price decline from the June 18 high of 1.1436; this is before we see prices grind lower towards my medium term price target area near the 1.0750’s.

German data weakens, with industrial production unexpectedly dipping 1.4% m/m in June data (the median forecast had been for a 0.9% rise). The unexpected sharp contraction in German June production will cast a shadow over Q2 GDP estimates. However, the EUR seems to be ignoring this as EUR buyers are emerging on short term oversold conditions. Early-week markets in Asia are consolidating after Friday’s U.S. jobs report market volatility. Speculation that Beijing will speed up mergers of state owned companies helped support shares, while Japan’s Nikkei was driven by earnings reports, and the Australian market was supported by a strong rebound in bank shares.

Friday’s headline U.S. report printed a 215k July payroll rise with a 0.2% hourly earnings gain that exactly matched estimates, but tiny gains of 101k for civilian jobs and 69k for the labor force after June declines were a disappointment. There was a drop in the jobless rate to a 5.26% cycle-low from 5.28%, though the labor force participation rate remained at a 38-year low of 62.6%. The FOMC is on the verge of its first rate hike since June 2006. However, a tightening is still not guaranteed and there remain some risks that could keep the Fed sidelined.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from current 5-day percentage change of currencies against the other major currencies.

The AUD is trading higher as the RBA talks about a stronger economy and short sellers get squeezed. Demand for Australian commodities also seems to be improving.

The GBP is trading lower after “Super Thursday” turned out to be a disappointment and the BoE may postpone a rate hike.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Sentix Investor Confidence: The forecast is for a 20.2 reading up from the previous 18.5, a higher reading will highlight investors confidence in Europe’s economic recovery.

• USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Due to speak at the Atlanta Press Club and will be taking questions from the audience.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #4  
Old 11-08-2015, 10:13
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 11th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has been rising for the last four trading days after it created a higher low at 1.0848 weekly support. This has brought the pair conclusively out of the bear channel after a breakout at the end of July failed. This first failed attempt but was a hint of things to come and market was able to create a higher low on August 5th. Yesterday was the first time EURUSD stayed outside the channel for a full trading day thus confirming that the downside dynamics that were in place in July are not dictating the market moves any longer. Therefore, I expect that this week’s price action will be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. I am seeing a support area in the daily resolution between 1.0848 and 1.0934 while the nearest resistance area is between 1.1114 and 1.1189 and 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels coincide with these levels. However, before EURUSD can move up there, it has to deal with a resistance created by upper 2 stdv Bollinger band and 50 day moving average (currently at 1.1090). I expect the area between 1.1061 and 1.1130 to limit today’s trading on the upside and then look for a move to 1.0870.

German ZEW unexpectedly dropped in August, with the expectations reading falling to 25.0 from 29.7. The current conditions reading still improved to 65.7 from 63.9 and the expectations number still remains firmly in positive territory, indicating that optimists far outnumber pessimists. Still, the fact that investor confidence dropped again, despite signs that Greece is heading for a third bailout highlights that concerns about the impact of the Fed’s lift off and the outlook for the Chinese economy overshadow a more stable situation in the Eurozone. The strong current conditions reading, which ties in with a marked rise in German orders in Q2, suggest the recovery remains on track in Q3, but concerns about the longer term outlook seem to be on the rise. Bund futures extended gains on the weak number and the September 10-year contract is now up 44 ticks at 154.39.

China devalued yuan after July exports we down by 8.3%. Currencies were impacted by the PBoC’s devaluation of the yuan, with the AUD and NZD both losing over 1% to the USD in the wake of the move, while the won and the yen were hit by a lesser extent. An indirect bid for dollars saw EURUSD tumble back to the mid-1.09s after foraying above 1.1000 after the London close yesterday. The PBoC lowered the yuan’s daily fix to the U.S. dollar by 1.9% to 6.228, the largest devaluation since the central bank dropped its peg against the greenback. The move follows dismal trade data out of China over the weekend, and is apparently a one-off initiative intended to converge onshore and offshore pricing as a new pricing regime is put together ahead of the key IMF SDR inclusion vote later this year, according to the FT. AUDUSD dove over a big figure in making a one week low at 0.7305. USDJPY lifted to a two-day peak of 124.89.

European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. stock futures following China’s move to devalue its currency, which will add to concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, while prompting concerns that the devaluation will hamper exporters elsewhere as it will artificially boost the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers. This could put fresh pressure on other central banks to take their own currencies more into account. The DAX was looking forward to an expected improvement in the ZEW after yesterday’s robust gains.

Fed’s Lockhart is still disposed to September lift-off though waiting a month or two won’t be decisive for the economy and a gradual tightening pace means something less frequent than a hike at each meeting. He sees some evidence of inflation heating up, though low global commodity prices could be a concern if they signal weak global demand. Lockhart considers progress on inflation important in setting the pace of rate hikes after lift-off. He views immediate risk of Greek spillover as passed, but any agreement still needs to be implemented. Seems he’s left himself some wiggle room on lift-off on the inflation threshold, despite still favoring a September move.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

AUD was hit today as China decided devalue its currency. The move was seen as a sign of weakness in Chinese economy and as AUD really trades on Chinese fundamentals it was sold off. After being down most against the safe haven currency CHF AUD is now down most against the EUR. However, there are losses against most of the other major currencies as well. The news brought AUDUSD to lower Bollinger Bands in 4h resolution while EURAUD broke out of a tight range it had been over the last four trading days. GBPAUD reacted by rallying to a resistance at weekly pivotal candle low. AUDCAD dropped significantly from a resistance on the devaluation news as Crude Oil has seen some strength from a major support.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• German August ZEW investor sentiment was expected to be rising to 31.0 (median 32.0) from 29.7 in July. However, the figure was down from the previous and came in at 25.

• US Wholesale Trade: June wholesale trade data is out today and is expected to show a 0.8% (median 0.5%) increase for June with inventories up 0.7%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.29 from April. The May release had shipments up 0.3% in May and inventories up 0.8%.

• US Productivity: The first release on Q2 productivity is due to be released today and should reveal a 2.0% (median 1.5%) headline which follows a -3.1% headline in Q1. Unit labor costs are seen at -0.5% (median 0.3%) after a 6.7% in Q1. Productivity was negative in both Q1 and Q4 of last year but is now poised to post gains.

• Canada Housing Starts are expected to improve to a 205.0k unit rate in July from the 203.0k pace in June. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Market Risk: The Bank decided that the threat from falling oil prices was the challenge facing Canada’s economy, and the downside risks to growth were enough for an insurance ease. Such a move would seem to increase the risk of a housing bubble. Not to worry, as the Bank says that easier policy will help assure incomes do not dive which will in turn allow households to service debt.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #5  
Old 12-08-2015, 07:51
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 12th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 12th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD rallied to the 1.1090 resistance identified in my report yesterday. The pair reacted lower but then attracted buyers at an intraday support at 1.1012. This has led to a fifth consecutive up day with price once again trying to challenge the resistance area above 1.1090. EURUSD is trading inside the upper Bollinger Bands (1.5 and 2 stdv) and the Stochastic is getting overbought. Trend in 4h resolution has been strong and suggest that this will be another day without a significant correction in EURUSD but the upside is indeed getting limited as the resistance area is near. EURUSD is trading near levels that have been able to turn price lower before, therefore I expect that in today’s trading upside will be limited to 1.1090 – 1.1130 range.

The PBoC devalued again, shifting the yuan’s reference rate to 6.3306 versus the dollar, which is a 1.6% weakening of the Chinese currency relative to yesterday’s 6.228 (which itself marked a 1.9% depreciation). There seems a degree of acceptance in markets, with Credit Suisse economists, for instance, calculating that the yuan was 5 to 10% overvalued going into the devaluations, adding that anything more than a 10% shift in the currency would spark political backlash. Incoming Chinese data today, including production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, showed weakness.

German lawmakers not ready to wave through Greek bailout. There are reports that German Chancellor Merkel is facing opposition to the plan to let lawmakers vote on the third Greek bailout package early next week. A deputy to Finance Minister Schaeuble told ARD television that “one needs to look closely” and “ask the Bundestag for approval when the common understanding is that this will hold for three years”. If there is a delay it could derail Greece’s close time table and the race to get political approval before Greece faces another big ECB repayment on August 20.

German insolvencies are falling sharply, with the overall number down 6.6% y/y in the year to date and down 10.6% y/y in May alone. This is another sign of a relatively robust domestic economy, but also a reflection of the fact that especially small companies in Germany are facing fewer financing constraints than companies elsewhere in the Eurozone. The low interest rate environment and robust domestic demand are also helping t hem to perform.

Yesterday US wholesale sales edged up 0.1% in June and inventories rose up 0.9%. The 0.3% May sales gain was nudged down to 0.2%. May’s 0.8% jump in inventories was revised lower to 0.6% (0.4% April). The inventory-sales ratio increased to 1.30 from 1.29 (revised from 1.29). Gains in most of the nondurable sales components slightly offset broad-based declines in the durable goods sales. Inventories were boosted by autos and drugs. The data will help fine tune GDP estimates.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

This is yet another day that the market participants are selling Australian dollar due to another currency devaluation in China. AUD is down against the competitors across the board while money has been flowing into CHF. This is a sign that markets are concerned about these surprise moves by the PBOC and feel the need of finding a safe haven. AUDUSD tested the 0.7237 support earlier today and has rallied slightly at the time of writing. The nearest resistance is now at 0.7315. EURAUD moved to the 1.5277 resistance and is now near to another resistance at 1.5332. GBPAUD is trading inside the upper daily Bollinger bands and has reacted slightly lower from the resistance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Main Macro Events Today UK Claimant Account Change for July is expected to come in at 1.5k compared to previous figure of 7.0k.

• Eurozone industrial production: there should be a decline in June production numbers of -0.1% m/m (median same0), after the disappointing German number. Data may be too backward looking to be a major market mover or change the overall outlook, but a weak number will add to prevailing risk aversion, especially after the surprise drop in the ZEW yesterday.

• US Treasury Budget: July treasury data is out today and is expected to reveal a $149 bln (median -$129.8 bln) deficit for the month. This compares to a $51.8 bln surplus in June and a $94.6 bln deficit in July of last year. Receipts are expected at $224 bln, up 4.6% y/y with outlays at $374 bln, up 20.9% y/y.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #6  
Old 13-08-2015, 10:53
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 13th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s rally exceeded my expectations for the day as EURUSD blasted through the resistance at 1.1130. However, it still is inside the range I said I would expect to contain this week’s price action. I suggested in my report on Tuesday that EURUSD would not trade beyond 1.1189 resistance. There was a quick move some 25 pips higher but it was quickly rejected by the sellers and the pair is currently trading at 1.1119. EURUSD is now moving lower towards an intraday support area between 1.1030 and 1.1070. The next support level after this intraday support is the weekly high at 1.10996. This weekly high is fairly near to the support area above it and therefore adds to its significance. Nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0934 and 1.1214.

The PBoC devalued the CNY for a third day, but at a decreasingly aggressive pace of 1.1%, comparing to 1.6% yesterday and the initial 1.9% devaluation of Monday. The central bank held a press conference to explain the devaluation — in contrast to the two previous occasions — arguing that there was no economic basis for the currency to continue depreciating, and that it would keep it stable. The PBoC had also intervened during its overnight session, when it trimmed losses in the CNY of nearly 2% to just 1%.

The central bank also said that the way the reference rate for the new session was modified would now incorporate the currency’s close from the previous session, as well as demand and supply conditions. All this mollified broader market concerns. Most other Asian currencies managed to rebound, and stock and commodity markets picked up.

Final German HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1% y/y, CPI at 0.2% y/y, as expected. The breakdown showed seasonal price drops for clothes and shoes over the month, which were compensated by a rise in holiday related prices. The annual rate continues to reflect the impact of lower energy prices, with household energy down 5.7% y/y, a further acceleration in the pace of decline, driven by a 22.4% y/y drop in prices for heating oil. Headline numbers remain very low, not just in Germany, but deflation risks are now longer a major concern for the central bank, as core inflation starts to rise.

US Treasury posted a $149.2 bln budget deficit in July, a 57.7% erosion versus the $94.6 bln shortfall a year ago. Spending surged 21.2% y/y, while receipts rose only 5.1% y/y. The fiscal year deficit now stands at $465.5 bln, worsening 1.1% y/y compared to the $460.5 bln red ink for the same 10-month period of fiscal 2014. Also for the fiscal year to date, receipts are up 8.0% y/y, with outlays up 6.9% y/y. We’re still forecasting a $430 bln deficit for the current fiscal year, which compares to the -$483.3 bln for FY2014.

September liftoff is far from a done deal thanks to China’s devaluations and the broad impacts and implications rippling around the globe. For the time being we’ll maintain our call for a 25 bp hike in September. But the Fed funds futures market is now showing only about a 40% chance for action. Odds were closer to 70% after the July jobs report. Factors that have the potential to cause the FOMC to delay are the risks of global economic weakness, the renewed threat of disinflation with the plunge in commodities, potential devaluations of other Asian currencies, and the stronger dollar which could be a net headwind to US growth. It’s too soon for Fed officials to start making pronouncements on China, as indicated by Dudley earlier. While data will continue to be the Fed’s guiding light, policymakers have already shown their sensitivities to global dynamics, and overseas events could take precedence in the September rate decision if the markets become unglued.



Currency Movers Charts

In today’s trading we’ve seen EUR correcting lower while USD, CAD and GBP have attracted money and moved higher. NZD is a clear loser today even though there has been no major news on the currency. NZD performance against GBP and USD stand out from the others. GBPNZD is moving higher in an ascending triangle that has been formed below a major historical weekly resistance at 2.4146 while NZDUSD moves sideways at a weekly support at 0.6470. AUDNZD reacted higher from a support yesterday and created a pin bar but there has been much momentum today. This price action is also taking place at a weekly pivotal high at 1.1113.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The minutes of the July policy meeting, are unlikely to bring any surprises, with comments likely to confirm a cautiously optimistic view on the growth outlook with some reservations due to the impact of the Greek crisis and uncertainty about world growth. Deflation risks are no longer a real issue and some council members will have highlighted risks of asset price bubbles, although the prevailing view at the ECB is that this is not a real concern for now and should be addressed at a national level via macro-prudential policies. The main concern at the ECB is the focus on the full implementation of the QE program and a clear message to markets that the prospect of rising rates in the U.S. doesn’t mean the ECB is in a hurry to follow.

• US Retail Sales: July retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.6%) headline with a 0.4% (median 0.4%) ex-autos increase. There are balanced risks to the report which we discussed in Monday’s commentary as chain store sales slowed steadily over the course of the month after a strong start but a firm employment report and the 2.1% bounce in auto sales will help lift the report.

• US Import and Export Prices: July trade price data is due today and we expect import prices to decline by 1.3% (median -1.0%) with export prices down 0.4% on the month. The import price index managed to increase in May as the winter and spring plunge in oil prices leveled off but further declines in oil prices during July look poised to once again weigh on the release. Our July forecasts compare to June figures of -0.1% for import prices and -0.2% for export prices.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #7  
Old 14-08-2015, 12:21
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 14th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850’s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220’s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080’s – 1.0980’s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260’s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns.

German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% q/q, a slight acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6%, up from 1.1% y/y in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2% q/q in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.5%. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to France’s ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras’ coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon.

Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below $42 for the time being. Firmer U.S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6% m/m, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7% m/m and fell 5.6% y/y. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9% y/y in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0% y/y, up from 0.8% y/y in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim.

• CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2% following the 18.0% drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U.S. dollars.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Old 17-08-2015, 12:33
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 17th August 2015.

GOLD RALLY HALTED NEAR RESISTANCE.




Gold, Weekly

I pointed out in my previous report that the long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold. However, I noted that in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report.

Market has since moved roughly as expected with the price of gold moving briefly below the 1080 support. This intraday move was quickly rejected and price closed above the support. This was followed by a sideways move and then a rally that almost reached the lower end of my resistance range last week. The long term weekly picture remains bearish with gold trading near previous support areas. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the 1130.40 low and therefore suggests increased significance of that level. Other resistance levels are approx. at 1142 and 1160.



Gold, Daily

Gold extended a move to the downside and moved outside the bearish regression channel. Then it took its time after forming a pin bar at support and moved sideways. Now gold has rallied into the the upper Bollinger bands near the first significant resistance level at 1130.40. This level also coincides with a price projection based on the triangle width created by the sideways consolidation.

Stochastics is somewhat overbought and rolling over indicating momentum to the downside should be followed by the recent failure to penetrate the Bollinger Bands. However, the support is fairly close at 1100 to 1103. This support area is roughly the higher end of the sideways move. Therefore the downside move from the current levels might not be that strong or long lived.



Gold, 240 min

Price is moving sideways after breaking below an ascending regression channel. A pivotal high candle low at 1120 limits the upside moves while the nearest 4h support is at 1111.50 coinciding with the lower 4h Bollinger Bands. The upper end of the 1100 to 1103 support area is where 50 period simple moving average is at the time of writing. At the same time Stochastics Oscillator quite correctly suggests that price is trading approx. in the midrange of the recent sideways move. The latest complete 4h bar is a pinbar that indicates lower prices but there has been now follow through.

Conclusion

Even though gold is near the lower end of the long term downward trend channel the proximity of previous support levels (now resistance) suggests that it is hard for the buyers to create a strong rally from here. Price of gold has been a lacklustre performer in the past when the US Fed has been raising rates. This time should be no different unless some external event turns on a need for safe haven buying. Daily time frame rally from a triangle formation failed at the Bollinger Bands where it also reached a price projection target. This suggests the initial thrust to the upside is over as the target has been reached. If the support at 1111.50 breaks we should see gold correcting slightly lower to 1100 – 1103 support area. All in all, the price of gold is in the short term more likely to correct lower than move beyond the 1120 – 1126.30 resistance. Therefore if price moves into this range of resistance I will be looking for sell signals in the lower time frames. Should this take place my targets for the shorts are at 1110 and 1103.

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Janne Muta
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #9  
Old 18-08-2015, 11:01
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 18th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The dollar continued on a steady-to-firm path during pre-European trade session in Asia, despite weakness in US Treasury yields amid growth worries and talk the FOMC will delay lift-off beyond September. EURUSD ebbed to a six-day low of 1.1051, and USDJPY lifted to the 124.50 area, though the pair remained well within its Monday range.

For the last three weeks the Stochastics Oscillator has been giving high quality signals at both ends of its range. This happens when market moves sideways in a well-defined range. I said in my Aug 11th report that I expect this week’s price action to be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. The upper end of the range was tested over the next three days but price failed to penetrate the level on a closing basis. Since then the pair has been drifting lower. The key word here is drifting. Price move hasn’t been strong and volatile but rather quite gradual. The pair has now reached the support range I mentioned in my Aug 13th report (1.1030 – 1.1070) and trades at 1.1060 at the time of writing. Therefore, I expect price will find support very close to the current price. The proximity of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1044 supports the idea. Reaction higher however, could be short lived to as there is resistance in 1.1114 – 1.1125 range. If this I’m right and this resistance holds the support area between 1.08048 and 1.0934 becomes a likely target area for shorts.

German Financial Minister Schaeuble calls on lawmakers to back Greek aid package. He sends a strong signal off support for Greece’s 3rd bailout package ahead of Wednesday’s vote in Germany’s lower house of parliament, where Schaueble and Merkel are facing growing dissent from their own party. Schaeuble told public broadcaster ZDF that he sees a dramatic change in the government’s readiness to reform and that: “I can argue with full conviction, partly because I haven’t taken this decision lightly myself… that the right thing to do is to vote for this”. Schaeuble, like Merkel before him, seemed to be trying to play down difference with the IMF over Greece’s debt sustainability and stressed that he is sure that the IMF will be involved in the program.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose to 61 in August from 60 in June and is the highest since November 2005. The single family sales index edged up to 66 versus 65 last month (revised from 66). The future sales index was steady at 70 (July revised down from 71). The index of prospective buyer traffic improved 2 points to 45 versus 43 previously, and is the best reading of the year, underpinned by the gains in employment and still low mortgage rates.



Currency Movers Charts

The AUD is down after the RBA meeting minutes indicated that the bank believes the Fed rate hike will cause further depreciation in the AUD against the USD. NZD gained ground earlier today on the back of news on milk prices going up. According to Reuters there is a growing expectation that milk prices will rise in tonight’s auction. This commodity being important for the New Zealand economy potential for higher prices has supported the currency today.

EURAUD is trading near the lower end of a daily shooting star candle and looks like it might push into the above resistance. AUDCAD is rolling over from a resistance at 0.9670 towards a support at 0.9431. NZD has risen most against the AUD and the AUDNZD pair has been trending lower for past few hours. This has brought the pair to a 50 day SMA and a daily pin bar. This however is taking place in the middle of the daily chart price range. NZDCAD is trending higher after it was able to hold above the 50 day SMA. However, there is a weekly resistance level at 0.87 area and the pair is approaching the level again.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• RBA Policy Meeting’s Minutes: RBA policy makers were less worried about the currency appreciation in the beginning of August and said that weaker currency was helping exports. The bank deemed it likely that when the US Fed raises the rates the Australian dollar will depreciate in value against the US dollar.

• UK CPI: The y/y UK Consumer Price Index numbers are released today. The previous figure was 0.0% and with energy prices at multi-year lows there are no expectations that inflation would pickup now. Forecast: 0.0%.

• US Housing Starts: July housing starts data should show a 3% decline in the pace of starts to a 1,140k (median 1,180k) pace for the month. Permits are seen at 1,200k from 1,337 in June and completions should be 990k from 972k in June. The NAHB remained firm in July at 60 and today’s release showed a further increase to 61 in August.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #10  
Old 19-08-2015, 07:54
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Should avoid trading in RBA news release session. It could have a big slippage.
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Old 19-08-2015, 11:31
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 19h August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Daily Yesterday’s intraday rally was short lived and EURUSD resumed its downward trend. In the Asian session the pair moved higher and attempted to test resistance at 1.1080. Rally moved the EURUSD spot rate outside a descending 4h price channel. However, the aforementioned resistance is a daily low from 13th while 50 day SMA is coinciding with the level. This combination triggered selling and the last complete 4h candle turned into a shooting star. As mentioned in the previous reports, there are no significant daily support levels before the 1.0934. And because the spot is now close to resistance levels, it makes more sense to look for further downside over the coming days. IMF participation in Greek bailout is indispensable for Germany, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He stressed that the IMF agreed in principle to join the Greek bailout and said he is confident about the IMF’s assessment of Greek debt sustainability. Schaeuble, who is trying to sell the package to increasingly reluctant lawmakers from his own party, repeated that a haircut is out of the question and that there is only “limited” room for further Greek debt relief. So it’s hard to share his confidence that the IMF will come on board in October. Eurozone officials have been considering soft debt relief in the form of maturity extensions and extended payment holidays, but the IMF previously argued that this is unlikely to be sufficient to reach debt sustainability. Assuring lawmakers that the IMF will get on board, risks that Schaeuble and Merkel will have to declare defeat if there is no agreement with the fund on Greek debt. China’s economy and a EM debt crisis are now the principal concerns of investors, according to the latest sentiment survey from BoA-Merrill, eclipsing risks of a Eurozone breakdown This comes with emerging market stocks trading at four-year lows and Asian currencies taking a pummeling. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah clocked fresh 17-year lows today, since the dark days of the 1998 Asian crisis. China is very much at the center of all this. Stock markets there had another volatile day with the Shanghai Composite showing a 5.1% loss at its intraday low, but managing to close with just a 1.2% decline (it’s not clear whether official support was behind this, but that seems to be the widespread suspicion). This follows the 6.1% dive of yesterday. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was boosted to 1.3% for Q3 from the previous 0.7% estimate, as the measure catches up to the internals of Friday’s industrial production report, though still some distance from the Blue Chip median estimate of 2.7%. “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on August 18, up from 0.7 percent on August 13. The forecast for real GDP growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent after Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve. Most of this increase was due to a 15.3 percent increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July that boosted the forecast of the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from -2.2 percentage points to -1.8 percentage points.” US housing starts edged up 0.2% in July to a 1,206k pace, the best since October 2007, after rebounding 12.3% to 1,204k in June (revised from 1,174k). But, building permits fell 16.3% to 1,119k, from a revised 7.0% June gain to 1,337k (revised from 1,343k). Single family starts rose 12.8% on the month, with multifamily down 17.0%. Housing completions increased 2.4% to 987k from the 964k June rate (revised from 972k). Headline starts are better than forecast, but permits disappointed a bit, to leave a mixed view on the report in general, but in a vacuum would keep a September rate hike on the table.



Currency Movers Charts

The moves in the FX markets have been rather subdued ahead of FOMC minutes. EUR has been gaining while the USD has been losing ground. We touched upon NZD and milk prices yesterday as there was an expectation that prices of dairy products would rise. Today however, NZD didn’t move higher even on the back of the news that dairy prices moved higher. According to agrimoney.com prices for milk powder rose 19% from two weeks ago, while prices for the anhydrous milk fat soared 27%. This is the first time prices have risen on the GDT since early March, and mark a recover from the previous auction’s 13-year price low and is likely resulting from a supply squeeze. This suggests that the free falling milk prices might have found a bottom and should support the New Zealand economy. However, the currency markets don’t seem believe this story as NZD is down today. Perhaps, the worries about Chinese economy and the Fed rate hike expectations are behind the lack of buying interest. Just recently there has also been some concerted move into the safe haven currency CHF but the changes are still relatively small.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

FX Pair Support Resistance
GBPUSD 1.5563 1.5806
AUDUSD 0.7216 0.7437
USDCAD 1.2950 1.3152
USDJPY 1.2379 1.2528
NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6650

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan All Industry Activity Index came in at 0.3% disappointing slightly as expectation was 0.4%. However, the improvement from previous figure of -0.5% was welcome.

• US CPI: July CPI should reveal a 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the headline with the core index up 0.2% (median 0.2%) on the month. After leveling off briefly, oil prices resumed their decline in July which is likely to add downward pressure to the CPI release. This effect showed up in the already released July PPI where we saw a headline increase of 0.2% but which included a 0.6% decline for the energy component in July.

• FOMC Minutes: Key domestic data have generally been good enough to support liftoff on September 17. Indeed, GDP growth should hit at least 3.0% in Q2 and Q3. However, the FOMC isn’t operating in a vacuum and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the dollar’s strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlook for China could tip the scales in favor of a delay, especially given the generally dovish leanings of the voting members, led by Yellen and Dudley. We’ll look for clues in the FOMC minutes for the degree to which the various parameters might affect the decision. Tomorrow’s data on July CPI will be of some importance too though it have lost some of its potency given the plunge in commodities.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #12  
Old 20-08-2015, 13:07
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 20th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The FOMC minutes lacked clear signs of September rate hike and triggered a sharp move higher in EURUSD yesterday. The pair moved to upper 1.5 sd Bollinger band and is now trading inside 4h pivotal resistance and relatively close to a weekly resistance level at 1.1189. When price is trading near a higher time frame resistance, such as a weekly level at 1.1189, it is more challenging for the bulls to move prices higher and downward reactions from proximity of the level become more probable. The daily picture is now medium term bullish with the latest low being a (second) higher low and the high before that being a higher high. This suggests that there is now a daily uptrend in place and we should see EURUSD moving higher into the weekly resistance area over the coming weeks but longs should be timed at corrections. In the short term, the nearby resistance area could be a challenge for the bulls and we should keep an eye on how price reacts to the resistance levels. The nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1015 and 1.1189.

ESM rubberstamped the Greek bailout late yesterday, following the ratification in national parliaments this week and last Friday’s approval by the Eurogroup. The ESM said EUR 13 bn will be paid out immediately and a EUR 10 bn bank buffer transferred to a segregated account at the ESM. EUR 3 bn are to be disbursed by the end of November, after further prior action from Greece. The ESM said the privatisation fund is to be established this year with a total targeted value of EUR 50 bn of assets to be sold. “Debt relief for Greece in the form of longer grace and payments periods, will be considered after the first review” in October/November and the IMF is expected to contribute “after European creditors adopt debt relief measures”. Whether this form of “soft debt relief” will be sufficient to satisfy the fund remains the key question for IMF participation.

German producer prices continue to fall, with annual PPI inflation coming in at -1.3% y/y in July, up from -1.4% y/y in June, but still firmly in negative territory. The renewed decline in energy prices is keeping a lid on import prices and overall PPI, while this year’s drop in the EUR is taking its time to feed through the product chain. Still headline rates are inching up from the lows seen at the start of the year and excluding energy the rate stood at -0.2% y/y in July. There never really was a great risk of a real deflationary spiral in Germany and with a tight labour market adding to wage gains and a rise in unit labour costs, while fueling consumption, inflation is seen trending higher over the next year.

FOMC minutes showed a leaning toward a hike, with most officials seeing conditions for liftoff approaching (minutes were leaked early). However, as of July, those conditions still hadn’t been met. And the recent events from China make September a difficult call. While participants cheered the improvement in the economy since the weak Q1, validating their forecasts, a few were disappointed that growth was still lower than had been projected earlier in the year. On inflation, it’s still expected to pick up, although some saw downside risks due to economic and financial developments abroad. The remarks on China were a little more expansive than usual. It said “several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the U.S. economic outlook. Some participants also discussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports.” Also of note, the Fed staff revised its inflation outlook down and price pressures are expected to remain below the 2% target through 2017.



Currency Movers Charts

EUR has been strong today across the board while AUD has been losing ground especially against EUR. EURAUD has been trending higher over the past few weeks and the latest move EURUSD encouraged buyers in to take EURAUD to the recent highs at 1.53. EURCAD is another strongly trending pair moving towards a resistance at 1.4733. Since March this year, EUR has been moving higher against the CAD on the back of oil prices staying weak.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Philadelphia Fed Index: The August Philly Fed is out Thursday and is expected to decline to 4.0 (median 6.5) from 5.7 in July. The already released Empire State index plunged in August, dropping to -14.9 from 3.9 in July with the ISM-adjusted measure falling to 44.9 from 50.0. This drop set a low back to 2009 and will be a source of downside risk for the remaining August producer sentiment reports.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 15 is out Thursday and the headline is expected to fall to 266k (median 270k) from 274k last week and 269k in the week prior to that. Claims are poised to average 274k in August after a lean 272k in July.

• US Existing Home Sales: July existing home sales data is out Thursday and should show a 1.6% slowdown in the headline pace to 5.400 million (median 5.440 million) from 5.490 million in June. The June headline set a new high back to ’09. Already released measures of housing strength for July have remained firm with the NAHB rising to 60 from 59 and housing starts up to 1.206 million from 1.204 million in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #13  
Old 21-08-2015, 11:47
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 21st August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Euro has been a funding currency for carry trades. Market participants have been borrowing in euros at near zero rates and investing in better yielding Asian economies where the rates are higher. Lately however carry traders (in short Euro positions) have been forced to unwind these investments as euro has been trending higher. The latest rally moved EURUSD far outside the upper Bollinger bands. This rally ran into a resistance at 1.1292, a daily low from June 19th. A move outside daily Bollinger bands and close to a resistance is likely to be reversed and price needs to move lower to find support levels from which to attempt to move higher again. The nearest support area is at 1.1189 -1.1216 but this area is rather high up in the range of the recent uptrend. If the recent momentum continues the this area can provide a level for a new reaction low but should that be violated a more reliable support area for EURUSD is closer to a weekly high of 1.0966 at 1.1018 – 1.1094.

In terms of weekly picture and sideways movement we’ve seen since May this year the pair is getting a bit pricey. This limits the upside potential and should trigger a more careful approach to trading the long side. On the fundamental side Fed’s lack of commitment to raising rates (evident in the latest FOMC minutes) and Chinese slowdown together with increased volatility in emerging markets raises the possibility that EURUSD will keep on appreciating. The CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has risen from July 17th low of 17.59 to 28.56 at the time of writing, a rise of 62.36%.

All this increases the likelihood that the Fed will start paying attention to the risk of adding more instability to these markets by increasing the rates. However, from a technical point of view, a resistance is a resistance until it has been penetrated. Therefore signs of reversal near weekly highs should be taken seriously and traded appropriately. Major weekly support area will be found between 1.0809 and 1.0996.

Greek elections to bring stability or more chaos? Tsipras decision to resign to pave the way for snap elections was not a total surprise, given the unraveling of Syriza amid the controversy over Greece’s 3rd bailout. It is not clear yet when elections will be held, but a September 20 date, as an official yesterday suggested, would be ahead of the 1st bailout review and debt relief talks which raise some risks. Tsipras may be hoping that the vote will bolster his eroding power base and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said he hoped the elections will bring more stability and will come early. However, the reforms will hardly bring any real improvement in the short term and could still see anti-austerity forces gaining strength, which has the potential to throw Greece back to where it was earlier in the year, if a new left government doesn’t want to see through the agreed reforms.

German consumers start to worry about growth outlook. The overall projection for consumer confidence in September came in weaker than expected at 9.9, down from 10.1 in August. The August breakdown showed a fresh drop in the reading for the economic outlook to just 16.6 less than half the 38.3 at the peak back in May. Income expectations are also coming off the boil and the willingness to buy is easing, which suggests the strong boost from consumption that has been helping the German economy to recover this year may taper off. This will add to concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China on the German economy.

The July US existing home sales rose 2.0% to a 5.59 mln new cycle-high clip extended the June surge to a 5.48 (was 5.49) mln prior cycle-high to leave an encouraging report overall. We now have cyclical gains of 62% for existing home sales and 44% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 79% for new home sales, 152% for housing starts, and 118% for permits. More generally, the housing recovery lost steam after the Fed’s taper talk and mortgage rate gains of mid-2013, and sales are just 5.3% above the 5.31 mln prior recent-peak in July of 2013 as we approach the presumed start of Fed tightening. Existing home sales fell 3.0% for 2014 overall to a 4.92 mln rate despite the underlying recovery, and we expect an 8% 2015 climb that brings us back to the mid-2013 sales pace. The percentage of all-cash transactions rose to 23% from 22% in June but a higher 24% over the prior three months, versus a much higher 29% last July. The downtrend is a good sign for ongoing repair in the mortgage market.



Currency Movers Charts

AUD is down again against all the major competitors while a safe haven currency JPY is benefiting from uncertainty that is clearly visible in the global stock markets. S&P 500 ended down over 2% yesterday while German DAX hadn’t a single issue that rose yesterday. Today Shanghai Composite closed down by 4.7% while euro has been benefiting from carry trade unwinds. All this points to more unstable times ahead and is in line with my predictions on global stock markets May this year (tweet: Bull market for stocks is over). This should also translate into added volatility in the currency markets and provide traders with new opportunities.

Today’s moves have driven AUDCHF and AUDJPY at support areas created by the lower daily Bollinger bands while EURAUD is trading near a pivotal weekly high from October last year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• China’s manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.1 in August from a final 47.8 in July. The decline was contrary to expectations for some modest improvement and left the lowest reading since March of 2009. The report suggests the weakness evident in China’s economy during July continued in August, ultimately exacerbating the China slowdown fears the have roiled global markets last week and this week.

• Eurozone PMIs stabilise in August, with the manufacturing reading holding steady at 52.4 and the services number rising to 54.3. Better than Bloomberg consensus, with strong German orders data helping to boost the German manufacturing PMI, which compensated for another drop in the French reading.

• Canada Retail Sales: We expect retail sales to rise 0.1% in June (median +0.3%) after the 1.0% bounce in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.5% in June (median +0.5%) following the 0.9% gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 6.0% in June according to the CPI, which should boost total and ex-auto sales. We could see a sizable boost, suggesting upside risk to the total and ex-autos sales estimates.

• Canada CPI should expand at a 1.4% y/y pace in July (median same at +1.4%) following the 1.0% y/y rate in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.2% gain in June. Gas prices were essentially flat in July compared to June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #14  
Old 24-08-2015, 12:30
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Date : 24th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260’s target area; see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430’s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 – 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16’s.

German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4% m/m. The overall index rose 0.73% m/m and up 5.3% y/y. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued.

Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growth/inflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a downgraded inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in China’s stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD. The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum.

The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #15  
Old 25-08-2015, 11:17
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 25th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading lower this Tuesday after a nearly +340 pip move with the main cause pointing to Chinese retail investors’ realization that their government is no longer willing to support the Chinese stock markets. Monday’s aggressive global stock market sell-off was amplified by a number of brewing factors, the devaluation of the Yuan, the collapse of commodity prices, and the uncertainty of when Central banks will start to tighten rates.

At the moment, the EURUSD is at risk of a retracement of the 1.1020-1.17 sharp multi up-day move. However, the EURUSD saw serval breaks of resistance that could lead to further positive upward momentum on price. Traders should now be on alert if the former 1.1530 resistance now turned support can hold before initiating new longs, otherwise a possibility dip towards the mid 1.13’s could see buyers remerge to support price for a potential next leg higher move above the 1.1750’s.

The German DAX remains clearly below the 10000 mark and Asian markets were volatile in overnight trade, with the ASX closing higher, but the Nikkei losing nearly 4% again.

Crude Oil touched $37.70 after making it to $39’s following its entry into to the $37‘s. The slide lower comes as traders fear that global stock markets may pick up downward momentum again; the price fall indicates that traders view that global demand for the commodity will weaken as the Chinese economic slowdown takes hold.

The White House said the Treasury is “closely monitoring” global markets and China should continue to pursue reforms, while touting the strength of the U.S. economy. However, it did warn that Congress needs to pass the budget and avoid shutdowns to avoid “self-inflicted wounds”. Merkel of Germany said that a crisis in China won’t last and it will do everything it can to stabilize the situation, while Hollande of France said China will find the right answers to secure its economy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is lower against the majors after the JPY showed strong gains as a safe haven currency during yesterday’s volatile trading session. The USDJPY bounced nearly 300 points from the lows, as Wall Street pares its losses; USDJPY touched 119.02 highs after collapsing from over 120.00 to nearly 2015 lows of 116.15. The AUD is trading higher as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. The EUR is trading mixed after the German Ifo index rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German IFO Index: Rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. This was even stronger than consensus forecast, with markets looking for a correction, although the rebound in German PMIs and strong orders already suggested that the Ifo would hold up. The breakdown confirmed that the improvement was entirely due to a jump in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward looking expectations index fell back slightly to 102.2 from 102.3 in July. The deteriorating growth outlook in China and other emerging markets may not have had an immediate impact on this month’s reading, but will be felt in coming month. Bund futures extended losses on the stronger than expected number, with the September contract now down 90 ticks on the day.

• USD Consumer Confidence: August Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 92.0 from 90.9. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decline in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #16  
Old 26-08-2015, 10:28
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 26th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didn’t last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. China’s rate cut yesterday by the People’s Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12% in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008.

The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430’s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high.

The USD gets some support as the U.S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of today’s Core Durable Goods Orders data.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0% (median -0.5%) following a 3.4% bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5% from 0.5% in June and inventories to be up 0.6%, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June.

• USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #17  
Old 27-08-2015, 10:22
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 27th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #18  
Old 27-08-2015, 10:26
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 27th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #19  
Old 28-08-2015, 12:52
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 28th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The EURUSD hit a low near the key 1.12 support level on Thursday , I previously posted “I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.” This I posted when the EURUSD was trading around 1.1311. At the moment, the euro is likely to continue its bounce off the key support as buyers emerged to support price. The risk for short sellers is that the latest bounce could extend out towards the 1.14’s – 15’s. However, traders should be on alert for any price drop below the 1.12’s as this move may raise fears for a return towards the low 1.11’s to mid 1.1150’s.

The rebound on stock markets continued in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp up 1.77% and Japanese markets outperforming. The USD managed to firm up in the wake of renewed optimism about the U.S. economy following yesterday’s revised Q2 GDP, which also helped the U.S. Dow Jones to close up 2.30% on Thursday. Today, the Eurozone stock markets are broadly lower, with Eurozone markets underperforming and the DAX down around 8% for the month. The markets are now hoping that stimulus from central banks may have helped to limit the sell off. Uncertainty about growth and central bank outlooks is adding to market volatility and means the impact of stronger than expected data is unclear.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The AUD is weaker across the board as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. Also, the unrest in China’s stock markets remains the major risk factor for the AUD. The GBP trades lower after a bout of sterling buying in the wake of UK Q2 GDP data, which was unrevised at +0.7% q/q.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP:: UK GDP was left unrevised at +0.7% q/q and +2.6% y/y in second-estimate data, matching expectations. Growth in 2014 was also left unrevised, at 3.0%. The breakdown showed a 3.7% q/q rise in exports versus just a 0.6% q/q increase in imports, while consumer spending eased to +0.7% q/q. Encouragingly, business expenditure rose 2.9% q/q, the biggest rise in 12 months, and by 5.0% y/y.

• USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Aug): The second release on Michigan Sentiment is out Today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 93.5 (median 94.0) after a 92.9 headline in the first release that marked a decline from 93.1 in July. The tendency over the past year has been for upward revisions and consumer confidence for the month spiked higher, rising to 101.5 from 91.0 in July. These two factors should lend upside risk to the release.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #20  
Old 31-08-2015, 10:37
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 31st August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 31st August 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28% decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets.

Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts don’t price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecasts at Thursday’s council meeting.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12’s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12’s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12’s with support levels seen near the low 1.11’s – 1.1150’s.

Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank “centers of influence members” since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U.S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said he’s less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in “quite solid mode of expansion.”



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2% y/y in July slowing from 0.4% in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6% q/q for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1% y/y, after it had fallen 0.9% in June.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% (median same) from 0.2%, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursday’s central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #21  
Old 01-09-2015, 11:37
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 1st September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The global stock market selloff continued in overnight trade in Asia, with the Nikkei dropping off another 3.84%. The USD traded mostly weaker; oil prices have fallen back off the recent high price near $54.3, and now trades just below $53 after rallying strongly over the three previous sessions. The USD weakness may be linked to the new declines in Chinese and global stock markets, this global selloff have investors and traders rethinking the timing of when the U.S. Fed will tighten rates. This uncertainty regarding the timing of a U.S. rate hike is fueling the current downward pressure on the USD. The markets will remain volatile until we see clearer signs from the U.S. Fed.

The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the immediate short term remains to be contained within the Aug 7th – Aug 12th upward slopping price channel. Now that the price has clearly bounced off the 1.12’s key, support current price potential is set to test the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. However, any break below 1.12 could open up a 1.11 target. A hypothetical trade set up could be to resell near the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s for a 1.11 target.

German jobless numbers fell 7K in August, slightly more than expected and leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless rate steady at a low 6.4%. Official numbers still look good, but the improvement on the labour market is leveling off as the market is increasingly tight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 2.0%, as widely expected and ignoring recent market turmoil in Chinese stock markets. The AUD is seen as adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices and further depreciation seems likely; however, the RBA is now cautious about adjusting rates lower because of the strong Australian property market.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The USD is softer across the board as declines in Chinese and global stock markets and the associated risk-off sentiment have served to erode Fed tightening expectations, which weighed on the USD.

The AUD is weaker post-RBA statement gains amid a backdrop of declining Asian and global stock markets.

The EUR and the GBP are mostly trading mixed as the EU commission maintains a 1.5% growth forecast, and UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Manufacturing PMI: August manufacturing PMI revised down to 52.3 from 52.4 reported initially, which means the overall reading fell slightly from the 52.4 reported for July, despite the sharp jump in the German reading. Confidence indicators overall still held up in August, but the downward revision ties in with contraction in China and is likely to herald further weakness in coming months as demand falls off with slowing growth in emerging markets and uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy.

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI survey disappointed at 51.5 in August, down from July’s 51.9 reading and below the median forecast for 52.0. The August dip brings the PMI indicator to within a whisker of June’s two-year low of 51.4. The strong trade-weighted value of sterling has been curtailing the export-sensitive sector.

• CAD Gross Domestic Product: GDP is seen falling 1.0% in Q2 (q/q,) after the 0.6% drop in Q1. But the expected 0.2% gain in June GDP would end a five month run of monthly GDP declines and support Bank expectations that the economy will recover in 2H.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: August ISM will be released later today and should reveal a headline decline to 52.5 (median 52.7) from 52.7 in July. Other measures of producer sentiment have been volatile for the month with big drops in the Empire State, and Richmond and Dallas Fed’s. The Philly Fed did manage to climb higher to 8.3 from 5.7 last month. Despite this the balance of risk for tomorrow’s release is to the downside and we expect the broader ISM-adjusted average for the month to fall to 52 after holding at 53 in both July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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John Knobel
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #22  
Old 02-09-2015, 12:41
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 2nd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Now that concerns about China and forecasted inflation numbers are being lowered, the ECB will now have renewed pressure to expand its QE, traders will be on alert for further ECB clues during tomorrow’s ECB press conference. If the ECB hints at further EU growth concerns, the odds will increase for additional QE which may provide enough of a catalyst to support EUR bear positions over the medium term.

The short term technical outlook for the EURUSD pair remains in an uptrend, however, momentum analysis looks to be weakening , if we can spot a Stochastic bull cross take shape below the 20 line hopes for continued upward price, momentum should remain intact. For the moment we cannot rule out a price move to retest the 1.1460’s – 1.1530’s before the bears emerge once again to potentially carry the pair back towards the 1.11 support area. Traders should also remain alert for price moves out-side of the most recent upward channel line for breakout trade set-ups. I remain committed to selling into EURUSD strength over the coming days.

Chinese markets will be closed both tomorrow and on Friday, which may be good for global markets as it means that the risk of bearish stock market contagion from this source will be set aside until at least Monday.

Market concerns over how central banks will respond to new adjustments in global growth forecast have been a driving force behind the recent financial market volatility. Crude oil prices have been reflecting growth projections with prices now trading lower, around the $43 level. Oil prices today are shapely lower today after a short lived price rebound attempt which posted a largest multi day rally in a quarter of a century. The AUD and CAD have been trading towards the downside within daily chart analysis as money flows into the JPY over the last 5 trading days, as an alternative to the USD, EUR and GBP, this trend should continue until at least we see clearer signals from the U.S. Fed regarding when and if we will see a pending rate hike. This Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-farm Employment Change should provide a clue about the Fed’s next move.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors ahead of tomorrows ECB press conference and USD buying is expected to pick up again.

The AUD is starting to firm up after the manufacturing sector in Australia expanded in August at an accelerated pace, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed, with a PMI score of 51.7.

The CAD is mixed as the current account deficit narrowed by $0.7 billion in Q2 to $17.4 billion. The reduction in the deficit was mainly reflected in the trade in goods and services balance.

The JPY is also trading mixed as traders may be unwinding safe haven trades.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP PMI Construction (Aug): The UK August construction PMI rose to 57.3 from July’s 57.1, below the Reuters median forecast for 57.5 but marking what is now the longest period of growth for seven and a half years. Today’s report follows yesterday’s disappointing manufacturing PMI, and investors will now be looking to tomorrow’s release of the service sector survey to complete the August PMI picture.

• EUR Producer Price Index: Eurozone PPI inflation held steady at -2.1% y/y in July, with prices down 0.1% m/m. The headline rate remains under pressure from lower energy prices, which dropped 0.5% m/m and were down 6.5% y/y. Excluding energy the annual rate in the Eurozone would have been -0.4% y/y, still in negative territory, but unchanged from July and up from levels seen earlier in the year. This ties in with the rise in core inflation reflection in HICP numbers. Inflation may still be negative but the risk of real deflation is lower than it was last year and this should keep the ECB on hold even if Draghi will likely affirm a clear easing bias at tomorrow’s meeting.

• USD Factory Orders: July factory goods data is out on today and its expected for orders to be up 0.7% (median 0.7%) on the month with shipments up 1.2% and inventories up 0.1%. This compares to the already released durable goods data for the month which had orders up 2.0% with shipments up 1.0% and inventories unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.34 in July from 1.35 since April.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #23  
Old 03-09-2015, 13:02
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 3rd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is trading near the upper weekly Bollinger Bands (20) after peaking higher last week. The move reached a high of 1.1714 and was reversed at a pivotal low from November 2005. This rejection brought the pair down to a level that resisted price moved higher in the beginning of August. This level also coincides with a rising trendline suggesting there is currently more potential in the upside while the immediate downside potential is limited. This view is supported by the Stochastics Oscillator (7,3,3) being oversold and starting to creep higher. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1156 and 1.1369. The 1369 resistance is a daily high from Aug 27th and a pivotal candle low.

The ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, leaving the focus on the updated set of staff projections and the press conference. With growth forecasts overshadowed by concerns about China and lower than expected oil prices keeping headline inflation down, both growth and CPI forecasts are likely to be scaled back. In the base scenario the central bank is pretty much expected to remain on hold into next year, and Draghi will highlight the heightened risks to growth and highlight that the ECB stands ready to act should these risks materialise. Lower than expected inflation meanwhile is almost entirely due to lower oil prices and core inflation is rising, in tandem with money supply growth and a stabilisation in loan growth. If Draghi follows Constancio’s argument that the central bank needs to see through short term volatility caused by energy prices markets are likely to register disappointment, especially as some will be betting on a surprise move already today. So the EUR may rise again.

The IMF is warning the Fed not to tighten policy in a note to policymakers ahead of the weekend’s G20 gathering in Ankara. The Fund argued that the Fed should “remain data-dependent” and not take hasty action “with little evidence of meaningful wage and price pressures so far.” The IMF also calls on the ECB to extend QE, and for the BoJ to stand ready to do the same with its QQE program. The Fund is concerned about low inflation in major economies, arguing that “monetary policy must stay accommodative to prevent real interest rates from rising prematurely,” and also stressed that risks to the global economy have risen.

As central bankers ponder their next policy moves, Bank of International Settlements and IMF take very different views of persistent monetary policy accommodation and the fact that markets continue to rely on central banks. The IMF once again called on the Fed to refrain from hikes and the ECB to expand QE, while the BIS in its latest annual report called on policy makers to shift the view from short term stimulus to longer term growth measures to boost sustainable growth. Even ECB vice president Constancio said recently that monetary policy can only support not create growth and we tend to agree. Furthermore, as the BIS highlighted “signs of growing financial imbalances around the globe highlight the risks of accommodative monetary policies”. Adverse reactions even to the possibility of not so much monetary tightening but a reduction of the still very substantial degree of monetary accommodation highlight the challenges central banks will face when trying to return to more normal conditions. In this situation additional easing may only exacerbate the problem especially as low inflation is more than ever a function of oil prices, rather than the sign of broad based deflation risks, at least for Europe.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Worries over Chinese economic growth are once again proving too hard for the buyers of AUD. The pair is down against all the competitors while the metals markets are down as well. AUDUSD is trading near a huge bottoming formation from year 2008 but at the moment there are no signs of this helping to support price. NZD has been rallying against the AUD today. According to newstalkzb.co.nz the price of milk powder rallied by over 12% a couple of days ago. This translated into AUDNZD dropping lower from a resistance level near the upper daily Bollinger Bands (20). The pair is now trading near a potential support in sideways range. EURAUD is trading above January 2015 highs but just below a resistance created in May 2008. That explains the strong reaction lower from 1.6340.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone Jul retail sales rose 0.4% m/m, less than we expected, but with June revised up to -0.2% m/m from -0.6% m/m reported initially, the three months trend rate still picked up to 0.4% from 0.3% in the three months to June. The annual rate meanwhile jumped to 2.7% from 1.7% in June. The data confirms that consumption trends continue to support growth in Q3, which ties in with improving labour market and the rise in real disposable income also thanks to the low inflation environment.

• Canada Trade Balance: We expect a widening in the trade deficit to -C$1.0 bln in July (median -C$1.1 bln) from -C$0.5 bln in June. The key for the report will be exports, for which we have penciled in for an 0.3% m/m gain in July after the 6.3% surge in June. A mix of factors were present in July, as oil prices tumbled and the Canadian dollar depreciated. At any rate, further growth in exports would offer key support to the BoC’s constructive outlook for second half growth, especially in the wake of the 0.5% bounce in June GDP.

• US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 29th and should reveal an increase to a 278k (median 272k) headline from 271k in the week of August 22nd. Claims are poised to average 272k, steady from July when potential auto retooling distortions were at play. We expect August employment to reveal a 215k headline with the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.2% from 5.3% in July.

• US Non-Manufacturing ISM: Service sector producer sentiment is out today to finish off the August sentiment measures. We expect a decline to 58.0 (median 58.2) from 60.3 in July. Other sentiment measures for the month were much weaker and the ISM declined to 51.1 from 52.7. Overall, we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to drop to 51 after holding at 53 in both July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #24  
Old 04-09-2015, 12:52
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 4th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 4th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Draghi’s suggestion that ECB could extend the QE program dropped EURUSD below the rising trendline and the 1.1154 support. Price found support from a pivotal high at 1.1093 which coincides with 50 day SMA. Indications as a whole are mixed as the nearest support is relatively near at a daily pivot candle (1.1018 – 1.1093). This range sent the market strongly higher on August 19th which suggests that the level now holds some psychological value for the euro bulls but at the same time the sideways move and a new pivotal low at 1.1154 are very near. It has already proven to be a challenge for those with long bias today. The US Non-Farm Payroll figures are released today at 12:30 GMT. In case we see strong deviation from analyst expectations price is likely to fluctuate beyond the nearest resistance levels (1.1018 and 1.1154). Today’s NFP number is the last one before the next FOMC meeting and is seen as an important indicator for the Fed when it considers the timing of their first rate hike. Other support and resistance levels: 1.0932 and 1.1334.

German July manufacturing orders dropped 1.4% m/m, a much weaker than expected number. At the same time, June was revised down to 1.8% m/m from 2.0% m/m reported initially and the annual rate came in at -0.6%, versus 7.0% y/y in June. Annual rates over the summer can be volatile, due to the different timing of school holidays throughout the states, but still, the fall into negative territory highlights that while growth seems to have held up over the summer, downside risks to the economy have increased. The data will further fuel rate cut hopes and backs to the renewed jump in Bund futures at the start of the session.

ECB Increases Room to Maneuver: As expected, the ECB left monetary policy unchanged at the August council meeting. But Draghi was tricky, boosting bond as well as stock markets and bringing the EUR down with a technical tweak to the issue limits of QE purchases. In itself that doesn’t change the policy stance, but rather ensures that the central bank doesn’t run into supply constraints in its attempt to see through the current program.

US Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow was revised up to 1.5% from 1.3% previously following personal consumption and auto sales updates. According to the regional Fed: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 3, up from 1.3 percent on September 1. The nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked up from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent following yesterday afternoon’s release on August motor vehicle sales from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

US ISM non-manufacturing index dipped to 59.0 in August after exploding to 60.3 in July (which was the highest print since August 2005). It’s still the 3rd highest print on record however, though declines were broad-based. The business activity index slipped to 63.9 from 64.9. However, the employment index dropped to 56.0 from 59.6 previously. New orders fell to 63.4 from 63.8. New export orders dropped to 52.0 versus 56.5. Prices paid declined to 50.8 from 53.7.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

JPY has been strong across the board today. It is a logical continuation to the risk aversion move that started when the global stocks followed S&P 500 lower. JPY has been especially strong against AUD over the last three weeks. This has driven AUDJPY to a weekly support at 83.57. EURJPY made a lower high before dropping lower and is now approaching a weekly support at 131.87. CADJPY has also been weak and broken lower. The former pivotal support at 91.74 now limits the moves higher. GBPJPY is getting near to major support levels in the region of 179.30.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: August employment data should reveal a 215k (median 220k) headline that matches July’s 215k gain. The report will be closely scrutinized as the recent market volatility and weakness in China have renewed the debate about whether the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting. The volatile month weighed on producer sentiment measures for the month and consumer confidence was depressed as well lending adding downside risk to the release.

• Canada Employment numbers are expected to fall 5.0k in August (median -2.5k) after the 6.6k rise in July. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar, July) followed by declines (Feb, Apr, June). Will August be different? We are betting not, hence we see a modest decline. An as-expected dip would not alter the key take away from the labour market this year — job growth may be modest but it is enough to keep the unemployment rate at 6.8% (with the help from a falling participation rate).



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #25  
Old 08-09-2015, 12:43
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 8th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

In Friday’s report we identified 1.1093 – 1.1154 as a likely range to contain EURUSD action after the NFP report. Apart from a spike to the upside trading was maintained well within the range. The low for the day was 1.1090 while the high printed at 1.1189 and the close inside the range at 1.1149. As a result the last week’s candle turned into a narrow range bar that signals hesitation. In relation to daily Bollinger Bands (20) price is firmly in the mid-range and it is therefore challenging to estimate the future moves. Today’s euro zone GDP release is out at 09:00 GMT. The number is expected to be a confirmation of the preliminary release. EURUSD is finding some support from 1.1154 – 1.1170 range but the bias is on the downside. Next important support levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1018.

ECB’s Noyer says markets are well prepared for Fed hike. The Bank of France Governor said the “Fed’s communication has been done well and in detail, adding that an increase in the federal funds rate is inevitable and the markets are well prepared. It is not the timing that matters. Draghi’s dovish comments last week were clearly also designed to remind markets that Europe is in a different situation and that a hike in the U.S. won’t mean tighter policies in Europe, which should also help to limit upward pressure on the EUR if rate hike expectations in the U.S. are being pushed out.

ECB’s Weidmann: Direct impact of China equity slump limited. The Bundesbank President said at the sidelines of the G20 meeting that the direct impact of the stock correction in China and that the Bundesbank sees no reason to change its growth forecast for Germany. Still, he stressed heightened uncertainty about the outlook and said risks have shifted, while at the same time repeating once again that monetary policy cannot solve all problems. This seems to be the general tenor of ECB comments at the moments, with officials trying to dampen market reliance on central bank intervention to fix the economic outlook, although words alone won’t change that.

Copper and other metals are up after Glencore announced output cuts at two of its copper mines, which will cut supply by about 400 thousand tonnes. Copper prices are now up by 1.7% on the day. Oversupply has been a big issue in the copper market, similar to iron ore, crude and many other raw materials. Glencore’s decision comes after data last week showed Chinese manufacturing PMI dove to a three-year low in August. China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper, and many other commodities. Copper prices hit cycle lows on Aug-24, during the recent height of the recent Chinese stock market panic, but have since rebounded by 5.5%.

German labour growth accelerates sharply. Latest data show total labour costs up 0.9% q/q in Q2, bringing the annual growth rate to a whopping 3.1% y/y, from 2.8% y/y in the previous quarter and versus just 0.7% at the start of 2014. Gross wages and salaries rose 3.4% y/y in Q2. The tight labour market is boosting wage demands and settlements and with inflation at very low levels, real disposable income is picking up and supporting private consumption, but also marked increases in property prices, especially in the urban hot spots. Amid sluggish productivity growth, the increases also look unsustainable and will undermine competitiveness and are likely to push up unemployment in the medium term, with the decline in jobless numbers already starting to peter out.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Ugly trade data from China gave further confirmation for the slowdown in its economy. The 13.8% drop in imports was even worse than 8.2% drop expected by the economists. As China is an important trade partner for Japan this hit the Japanese stock market hard and sent JPY sharply lower against the majors. The biggest losses in have been at the time of writing against the GBP and AUD.

GBPJPY was trading at the lower weekly Bollinger Bands (20) and near to a support. The pair has rallied strongly and is currently challenging 50 week SMA at 184.27. AUDJPY is also deeply oversold in the weekly picture. The current up move is taking place from a support area that was formed in August 2012. EURJPY also moved higher from weekly Bollinger Bands (20) and is currently trading near a resistance area at 134.50 – 135.00.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Chinese import export data disappointed. Imports slumped by almost 14% year on year while YoY exports declined by 5.5%.

• Canada Trade Balance: We expect a widening in the trade deficit to -C$1.0 bln in July (median -C$1.1 bln) from -C$0.5 bln in June. The key for the report will be exports, for which we have penciled in for an 0.3% m/m gain in July after the 6.3% surge in June. A mix of factors were present in July, as oil prices tumbled and the Canadian dollar depreciated. At any rate, further growth in exports would offer key support to the BoC’s constructive outlook for second half growth, especially in the wake of the 0.5% bounce in June GDP.

• German trade surplus widened as exports rebound: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.8 bln in July, up from EUR 22.1 bln in the previous month, as exports rose 2.4% m/m, more than compensating for the 1.1% m/m decline in June. Imports rose 2.2% m/m, after falling 0.8% m/m in the previous month. Unadjusted data showed a surplus of EUR 25.0 bln in July, which brought the total for the year to date to 148.7, up from 122.1 in the first seven months of 2014. Exports were up 6.8% y/y over this period. Despite the scare stories, no sign then that German trade has been impacted significantly by slowing growth in China, at least so far, and Germany is heading for a new record trade surplus, although with import prices down on the year, this is of course partly also due to low oil prices.

• Eurozone final Q2 GDP: Eurozone Q2 GDP growth is expected to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y, in line with preliminary numbers, which will leave the focus on the breakdown. We expect net exports and private consumption to have been the main drivers of growth. Investment remains the Eurozone key weakness, despite the very accommodative monetary policy. There are signs that loan growth is stabilising, but even in Germany, where financing conditions are not really a problem, investment has remained modest with structural factors, rather than financing conditions the main impediment for stronger investment.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #26  
Old 09-09-2015, 12:27
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 9th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

In The 1.1214 resistance worked again yesterday and turned EURUSD down after the pair rallied from the support area identified in yesterday’s report. The pair keeps on moving sideways between a pivotal support at 1.1085 – 1.1150 and resistance at 1.1214. The pair also seems to honour 50 period SMA in the 4h timeframe as the slightly descending moving average has been limiting EURUSD advances lately. Today’s candle has potential to be a decisive one as it will create another lower high should it close down. There are two lower lows already and should today’s bar close below previous candle low another lower high will be created. Price has created lower highs in intraday charts, which suggests that the pair should move further into the aforementioned pivotal support. Apart from this pivotal support area support and resistance levels are at 1.0930, 1.1018 and 1.1214.

ECB’s Reinesch: Loose Monetary Policy support structural reforms. The governor of Luxembourg’s central bank said the “current accommodative monetary policy” provides a “window of opportunity” for structural reform. He stressed that “favourable financing conditions will offset possible short-term adjustment costs and will bring forward the longer-term benefits of reform”. According to Reinesch these “could focus on simplifying the administrative burden involved in creating a new firm or in growing a firm beyond arbitrary thresholds which trigger increases in compliance costs.” The ECB has been urging enhanced structural reforms for a while now, but in our view the risk is that without market pressure, governments will continue to shy away from any measures that could risk votes.

According to Eurostat the Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to a second estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.5% in both areas. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2015, after +1.2% and +1.7% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2015, GDP in the United States increased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.2% in the first quarter of 2015). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.7% (after +2.9% in the previous quarter).

The US consumer credit expanded 6.7% in July. It is a sign of confidence most likely propelled by low fuel prices and relatively steady job market. Outstanding consumer credit, a reflection of nonmortgage debt, rose $19.1 billion or at a 6.7% annual rate in July, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. Consumer credit has been trending higher. It has increased each month for nearly four years. July credit growth was roughly in line with economists’ expectations. They had predicted a $19.5 billion increase. Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, rose at a 5.7% annual rate. In June it climbed at an annual rate of 10%. Non-revolving credit, made up largely of auto and student loans, increased at a 7% annual rate, compared with 9.4% in June. Almost 70% of US GDP growth comes from consumer spending and steady growth in consumer credit therefore is a positive indication for the economic growth.

The US Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) rose by 2.1 points in August. This was the largest monthly improvement in US labor markets over the last six months. There were also revisions for previous months’ readings 2015 were revised up by a net 2.3 points in yesterday’s release. This measure contracted by 370 points from January 2008 to June 2009 but now it has made up about 90% of the 2008-09 deterioration.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

All currencies continue their rally against JPY today. JPY is typically seen as a safe haven currency and stock market gains across the globe signal that investors and other market players are once again ready accept risk. All the other currencies seem to be on a wait and see mode as fluctuations are relatively small when compared to JPY.

USDJPY has broken out of a 4h downtrend and is now trading near Aug 28th pivotal resistance. The low at 120.90 has tested bull commitment in USDJPY today. AUDJPY has rallied to a level that turned the pair lower Sept 3rd and has caused the market to hesitate: bearish pinbars in 4h chart. EURJPY hit the upper end of my resistance area at 135 and turned lower. Looking bearish now with some room to fall.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Chinese import export data disappointed. Imports slumped by almost 14% year on year while YoY exports declined by 5.5%.

• Canada Housing Starts: We expect starts to improve to a 195.0k unit rate in August from the 193.0k pace in July. The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Building permits will also be released and are expected to show a 5.0% drop in July after the 14.8% surge in June. A pull-back in multi-units is seen driving the pull-back in total permit values.

• Bank of Canada Rate decision: The August jobs report capped the recent run of data consistent with an economy at mid-year that is not in need of further policy stimulus. We’ve seen encouraging reports in the form of a 0.5% bounce in June GDP, back to back June and July export gains and jobs growth in both July and August. Granted, considerable downside risks remain, notably via a weaker China and volatile oil prices. But an improving U.S. economy underpins the outlook for ongoing growth in exports — about 75% of Canada’s exports are shipped to the U.S. And the plunge in Q2 investment suggests the worst of the oil patch investment cuts are behind us. While no further stimulus is currently necessary, the Bank of Canada will maintain a very dovish tone in Wednesday’s announcement as they retain scope to take further action if the economic data take a dive.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #27  
Old 10-09-2015, 09:27
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 10th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD moved further into the pivotal support yesterday as I expected. The 4h lower Bollinger Bands where able to support price and sent the pair rallying higher. There were good sized rallies in all the euro pairs which suggest that institutional money was flowing into EUR, but there seems to be no news event that could explain the rally. Euro pairs run into resistance levels and have been reacting lower over the last few hours. In EURUSD this is reflected in the pair once again trading lower from 1.1214 area. Even though there is a slight upward bias I expect low volatility to remain as the pair is bound by nearby support and resistance levels. The downside is limited by 1.1018 – 1.1093 and the upside by 1.1208 – 1.1332 candle. S&R levels beyond these are 1.1018 and 1.1334. Intraday price finding support at an area near 4h 50 period SMA. This same level used resist moves higher over the last few days.

A big NZD dive was the main action in pre-Europe trade in Asia after the RBNZ cut its growth outlook for the New Zealand economy and called for more currency weakness. This followed its expected decision to cut the official cash rate to 2.75% from 3.0%. NZDUSD dove just over 2% in making a three-day low at 0.6256. AUDNZD rallied strongly, with the RBNZ’s guidance contrasting a strong employment report out of Australia, which saw employment rise by 17.4k, above the 5.0k median forecast.

The data saw AUDUSD rebound to the 0.7020 area from a low at 0.6946. Elsewhere, USDJPY rebounded smartly from a test of 120.00, which was seen as Japanese stock markets corrected some of yesterday’s outsized gains. Yen losses were sparked by remarks from Japanese politician Yamamoto, who called the BoJ to expand QQE at its upcoming Oct 30 meeting. His remarks came as Japanese data showed PPI remaining in deep deflationary territory, and machine orders showing another contractionary quarter in capital expenditure. USDJPY spiked to a peak of 121.35 before settling to the 120.65-70 area. EURUSD, meanwhile, re-established itself above 1.1200.

UK house prices are surging, with the August RICS house price balance rising to a 15-month high of 53 from 44 in the previous month, while the August Halifax price index jumped by a large 2.9% m/m to bring the y/y measure up to +9.0% from July’s 7.9% rate. RICS doubled its forecast for price rises to 6% from 3%, reporting that properties for sale are at a three-year low. The demand-supply imbalance, coupled with robust economic momentum and record employment records, along with historically low mortgage rates and a government scheme to subsidize house purchases, are underpinning the market.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady as Economy Underpinned The BoC left the 0.50% policy rate unchanged, as economic growth and inflation have been consistent with their outlook. Most tellingly, the dynamics of Canada’s GDP growth projected in July remain intact, with economic activity underpinned by household spending and a firm recovery in exports. But downside risks remain, notably in the form of uncertainty related to China and emerging markets. The Bank has moved back to the sidelines, and we expect the current ultra-accommodative rate setting to remain in place through 2016.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates for the third time in three months. The current rate is 2.75%, down 0.25% from the previous 3% rate. This sent NZD down by as much as 2.0% against AUD at the time of writing. According to the RBNZ the economy is adjusting to the sharp decline in export prices, and the consequent fall in the exchange rate. The bank also commented on global environment: Global economic growth remains moderate, but the outlook has been revised down due mainly to weaker activity in the developing economies. Concerns about softer growth, particularly in China and East Asia, have led to elevated volatility in financial markets and renewed falls in commodity prices. The US economy continues to expand. Financial markets remain uncertain as to the timing and impact of an expected tightening in US monetary policy.

AUDNZD has rallied strongly and the pair is approaching the upper Bollinger Bands and a pivotal resistance in the daily time frame. EURNZD rallied to a similar resistance in a 4h chart and has turned lower. GBPNZD chart is almost an identical copy of EURNZD while NZDUSD trades near support.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• China’s CPI improved to a 2.0% y/y pace in August from the 1.6% y/y pace in July and 1.4% clip in June. The pick-up to the fastest CPI growth rate in a year during August would appear modestly encouraging given the government’s efforts to boost growth (which should presumably eventually lift prices). But a lack of supply for pork drove prices of that key meat product higher, lifting total CPI and undercutting a demand driven explanation for the CPI jump in August. Meanwhile, August PPI remained weak at a -5.9% y/y clip after the -5.5% y/y rate in July. That’s the worst pace of annual decline in six year, reflecting the plunging fortunes of China’s factor sector.

• Bank of England meeting: BoE MPC’s September meeting, which is now replete with the instant release of the minutes, will be the main event for sterling markets this week. With the August PMI surveys signalling the weakest growth for over two years, and signs that retail sales are slowing, along with concerns about global market volatility, we expect the minutes to reveal a more dovish tone than was the case at the early August meeting. The MPC should leave the repo rate at 0.5% — where its been since March 2009, and where its likely to remain until Q2 next year — and the QE total at GBP 375 bln. The vote is likely to be 8-1 in favour of holding the repo rate unchanged, with last month’s sole dissenter McCafferty, likely to persist with his vote for a 25 bp hike.

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Initial claims data for the week of September 5th are out on Thursday and should show a drop back to 267k (median 275k) after a bounce to 282k in the week of August 29th. Despite the slightly lower August payroll headline of 173k, claims have continued along a tight path. We expect September claims to have 275k, matching the August average but exceeding July 272k average.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #28  
Old 11-09-2015, 13:42
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 11th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Daily Yesterday’s slight upward bias accelerated a bit during the New York session but the pair has not been move beyond the 1.1208 – 1.1332 area which I suggested will limit the upside. Currently EURUSD is trading near a pivotal resistance at 1.1320 and has reacted lower from just below the resistance level. After edging higher for a few days the pair is now taking a breather and moving sideways. Significant daily support and resistance levels are: 1.1214 and 1.1334. Intraday support and resistance levels are at 1.1244 and 1.1320. ECB’s Coere: Growth too weak to boost jobs. The Executive board member said ECB bond purchases will continue as long as necessary, as growth remains too weak to create sufficient jobs. In the text of a speech published on the ECB website, Coeure said France still has some way to go on growth and that he sees “room for manoeuvre” on Greece once trust is restored. Italian refinancing costs fall. Italy sold EUR 4 bln of 2022 bonds with a coupon of 1.45% at an average yield of 1.37%, down from 1.60% at the previous auction on July 13. It also sold EUR 1.5 bln of 2046 bonds with a coupon of 3.25% at an average yield of 2.96%, down from 3.24% in July. Finally EUR 2.25 bln of 2018 bonds with a coupon of 0.25% were sold at an average yield of 0.24%. The BoE left policy unchanged as widely expected and the minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favour of steady policy, with McCafferty continuing his dissent in favour of a rate hike. However, while Sterling and yields spiked in the wake of the initial announcement, indicating lingering hopes for a more dovish statement and a reversal to a unanimous vote, yields quickly headed south again, as the statement indicated that the tightening bias is being eroded by rising concerns about the global growth outlook. So while the tightening bias remains intact for now, the BoE, is effectively taking a wait and see stance. Expectations of a dovish BoE statement were based on mixed confidence data and rising concerns about the global growth outlook. The BoE’s minutes also noted the dip in the Markit/CIPS composite PMI for August to the lowest level since May 2013. However, while bank staff lowered their estimate of Q3 GDP growth to 0.6% from 0.7%, the minutes noted that “the composite expectations index from the Markit/CIPS surveys had been steady, retail sales indicators had remained solid and consumer confidence had risen a little in August from already high levels”. In addition “the RICS survey had suggested a supportive balance of demand versus supply, and mortgage approvals in July had been a little stronger than expected”. US reports revealed a disappointing round of July wholesale trade figures yesterday that trimmed our Q2 GDP growth estimate back to an unrevised 3.7%, though we still assume 3.0% GDP growth in Q3. The August trade price report revealed huge export price declines, with big drops for both the commodity and core export and import aggregates that were reminiscent of the plunge back in January in the face of a dollar pop, oil price declines, and a weak global economy. As such, we see little potential for improvement in the monthly trade deficits despite lower oil prices given weak export valuations. We did see a welcome 6k initial claims drop to a lean 275k, though we expect a restrained 205k September nonfarm payroll rise as the inventory overhang and factory sector restraint continues to put pressure on the economy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Money has been flowing out of CHF today. EURCHF clocked a new post-January high of 1.0988 in early European trade. A steadier tone in global stock markets this week has been conducive of CHF declines. Swiss policymakers have also been successful in undermining the Swiss currency’s traditional status as a safe haven, with deeply negative deposit rates having caused a steady drip feed of yield-searching Swiss fund outflows. USDCHF is trading near the upper daily Bollinger Bands after rallying for three weeks. EURCHF has broken out of a sideways move and is currently challenging the 50 week SMA. AUDCHF is in a down trend in daily and is currently struggling with a resistance at 0.6930. CHFJPY is likewise in a daily downtrend and has reacted lower today after a two day contra trend rally.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• German August HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1% y/y, in line with expectations and the preliminary reading. National CPI was confirmed at 0.2% y/y and the breakdown, which was released for the first time, confirmed that lower energy prices are the main reason behind the low headline rates. Prices for light heating oil dropped 6.2% m/m and -27.6% y/y and petrol prices were down 4.2% m/m and 9.5% y/y, with CPI excluding household energy and petrol actually standing at 1.1% y/y in August, up from 1.0% y/y in July. This is still firmly below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but with German labour costs rising markedly despite relatively muted productivity growth, underlying trends are picking up, despite the fresh drop in HICP.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out on Friday and is expected to decline to 91.5 (median 94.0) from 91.9 in August. The already released September IBD/TIPP poll declined to 46.9 from 48.1 in July. There is heightened downside risk to the release from recent market volatility.

• US PPI: August PPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.1% (median -0.1%) decline for the headline with the core index up 0.1% (median 0.1%). This follows respective July figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core. After some rebound in May and June oil prices resumed their decline in July and August which could weigh on the release.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #29  
Old 14-09-2015, 12:44
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 14th September 2015.

GOLD TRADING NEAR SUPPORT AREA AFTER THREE DOWN WEEKS.




Gold, Daily

Gold still in downtrend as confirmed by downward price channel and yet another lower high in the weekly picture. This was once again formed at levels that used to support price and at 38.2% Fibonacci level identified in the previous report. Price rallied to the level in response to a strong move lower in US stock market. Since then price of gold has moved down for three weeks and is now trading close to the top of the two weeks’ sideways range (1104) from the end of June and the lower 1.5 sd Bollinger Band. Over the last two days price has been moving sideways at this 1103 – 1104 support, a level that resisted price advances at the end of July. Price is also trading at the lower daily Bollinger Bands while Stochastics are oversold. Daily support levels are at 1080 and 1103 while resistance levels are at 1117 and 1147.30.



Gold, 240

In 4h picture Gold is also trending lower. This is indicated by price moving inside a downward price channel and the 50 period SMA. Current price action is taking place at the lower end of the channel and at the lower Bollinger Bands. Stochastics has created a higher low after price formed a hammer candle on Friday. There is support in 1093 – 1098 bracket while the nearest resistance area is between 1109 – 1115.



Gold, 15 min

In 15 min chart the price of gold has moved below a rising trendline after reversing at 1108 – 1108.80 resistance. Price action suggests that the current range between 1106 and 1108 should be resolved to the downside and towards a 50% Fibonacci level at 1103 while the next support level is at 1101.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out on Friday and is expected to decline to 91.5 (median 94.0) from 91.9 in August. The already released September IBD/TIPP poll declined to 46.9 from 48.1 in July. There is heightened downside risk to the release from recent market volatility.

Conclusion

Trading should be range bound this week before the Fed announcement on Thursday. However, once the market participants know what the result is it support and resistance levels further away will become relevant. After moving lower for three weeks it is not likely that price will have another significant down move this week. Fed’s not expected to hike rates (only 28% probability for September rate hike) and price is trading relatively near levels that attracted buyers the last time. However, gold is in a long term downward trend. It is therefore likely that the demand at support levels will be eventually absorbed. Regression channel analysis in 4h chart indicates that gold is trading at the lower end of its likely range. This is confirmed by the Bollinger bands. Shorts should therefore factor this into their trading and be more careful as price might not have similar swings to the down side that I had last week. As the price is in downtrend and there are resistance levels fairly close by I expect gold will move further into the support area between 1080 and 1103 but the moves can be short lived and lead to a rally. If it takes place I expect the move run into a resistance at 1134 – 1153 area.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #30  
Old 15-09-2015, 10:22
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 15th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 15th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD moved sideways yesterday creating a spinning top candle. This took place at 1.1334 resistance that we identified in the previous TCM report. A spinning top that takes place at a resistance after a move higher is a reversal sign. Stochastics Oscillator is oversold and rolling over which supports the view that price reversal is likely to take place. Intraday support is currently at 1.1282, while there is resistance at 1.1328. The next support level is at 1.1214. The Fed meeting being so near price movements are likely to remain small.

FOMC Forecast revisions at this week’s FOMC meeting should reveal sharp reversals of the June FOMC revisions for GDP and the jobless rate, as growth prospects should be boosted despite global market volatility. We expect all the 2015 GDP forecasts to be raised by 0.4%-0.6% after June’s downward bumps of 0.4%-0.8%, while all but the lowest jobless rate estimates are lowered 0.1% across the 2015-2017 period after 0.1%-0.2% June boosts in the lower end estimates. There is a possibility that policymakers low-balled their estimates in June to facilitate upward revisions at this month’s meeting that would help to justify rate lift-off. The 2015-16 PCE chain price estimates were also low-balled in June, but the ensuing oil price plunge eliminated the need for revisions. The core PCE chain price figures have tracked official projections, though forecast ranges may be narrowed. We expect big downward bumps in the high-end Fed funds estimates, as officials “tap down” rate expectations in keeping with a “one and done” 2015 rate strategy. See our policy outlook page for a table of our assumptions for the Fed’s revised forecasts.

French August CPI came in below expectations at a six-month low of 0% y/y, ebbing from the +0.2% rate seen in July. The median forecast had been for a rise of 0.2%. The EU harmonized figure slipped to +0.1% y/y from 0.2% in the previous month, where it had been expected to remain. The data follows a string of disappointing data out of France, while recent energy price declines will be further feeding disinflationary conditions.

RBA minutes (Sep 1 meeting) indicated policy remains neutral, but officials warned that international economic developments (mainly from China) had raised financial market volatility and global risks. On the other hand, the depreciation of AUD due to declining commodity prices, was expected to support growth. The minutes also indicated officials weren’t sure on which assets Chan had been sold as authorities worked to devalue the yuan, or which assets were being purchased by those looking to take capital out of the country. AUD-USD is slightly lower non the dovish minutes.

Canada ran a surprise C$1.9 bln surplus in the previous fiscal year, according to the Finance Department’s Annual Finance Report for FY2014-15 that ended on March 31. The Harper government had projected a C$2.0 bln deficit in the April budget outlook. The unexpected surplus was due to better than expected revenue growth. The challenge, of course, is for the current fiscal year, for which the government projected a C$1.4 bln surplus.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The fact that the BoJ maintained a steady, but accommodative policy stance has moved funds into JPY as it is up against all the major currencies after the Asian session. Many still see additional stimulus from the BoJ next quarter.

USDJPY is rolling over after creating a pin bar and spinning top in the daily time frame last week. AUDJPY is reacting lower from a resistance at 86.05. EURJPY is also falling after pivoting just below 137. At the time of writing price is trading below yesterday’s low.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• BoJ rates and policy decision: the bankmaintained a steady, but very accommodative policy stance, as expected. The vote was 8-1. The Bank indicated it would continue to increase the monetary base by about JPY 80 tln annually via asset purchases. The statement noted that the “economy has continued to recover moderately, although exports and production are affected by the slowdown in emerging economies.” Many still see additional stimulus from the BoJ next quarter.

• US Retail Sales Preview: August retail sales are out Tuesday and we expect the headline to grow 0.4% (median 0.2%) for the month with the ex-autos aggregate up 0.4% (median 0.2%) as well. This follows respective July figures of 0.6% and 0.4% in July. Vehicle sales jumped for the month with a rise to 17.7 mln in August from 17.5 mln in July and, as discussed in today’s editorial, chain store sales also edged up for the month.

• U.S. Industrial Production Preview: August industrial production data is out Tuesday and the headline is expected to fall 0.2% (median -0.2%) following a 0.6% bounce in July. The capacity utilization rate should fall to 77.7% (median 77.8%) from 78.0% in July. The August employment report revealed weak hours worked data for mining and manufacturing that will weigh on the release, on top of which we expect a decline in utility production for the month.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #31  
Old 16-09-2015, 12:28
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 16th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD closed yesterday below the previous day’s spinning top candle low. This is further confirmation for the bearish view that I had yesterday. Yesterday’s analysis pointed to a reversal and provided a resistance to trade against. This 1.1328 resistance worked to a pip yesterday as price moved to 1.13287 after the publication of this report yesterday. The pair has rallied to the spinning candle low in the Asian session today and reversed lower once again. EURUSD has since penetrated 4h lower Bollinger Bands (20) and trades near 50 period SMA in 4h chart. The next resistance area is at 1.1285 to 1.1300, roughly coinciding with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1305 while next significant daily support is found at 1.1190 with 61.8% Fib level nearby at 1.1196. The 50% retracement level coincides with a daily high at 1.1230 (from 8th September) and could cause a small rally.

Several ECB officials have been voicing their opinions on the bank’s QE program. ECB’s Constancio: ECB has scope to expand QE if necessary. The ECB’s Vice President highlighted that compared to the programs introduced by Fed, BoE and BoJ, the ECB’s asset purchase program has been relatively small.ECB’s Nowotny: QE extension or expansion possible. The Austrian central bank head said in an interview with Die Presse, that the asset purchase program has had a number of positive effects while highlighting that the low inflation in the Eurozone is a big problem for the ECB. Interestingly, he didn’t blame lower oil prices, but the dramatic deterioration in the economic outlook for emerging markets, adding that the main problem isn’t so much China as countries like Brazil. ECB’s Weidmann warns cheap money doesn’t help to boost sustainable growth and production potential, but in an interview with Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung, he warned again that it increasingly harbours risks also to financial stability. Weidmann was recently appointed as new head of the BIS, which in its latest annual report also warned that markets remain too reliant on central bank stimulus, in contrast to the IMF, which is calling for ever more easing measures to support world growth.

The lack of major negative surprises in today’s data keeps the FOMC on course to announce a 25 bp rate hike on Thursday. Though it remains a close call. While the Fed is mostly meeting its mandate on economic growth (we’re forecasting a 3.0% GDP growth rate for the second half of 2015) and the labor market, the renewed downturn in commodities may reduce confidence that the 2% inflation goal will be met anytime soon. And various exogenous factors, including worries over slowing growth abroad and increased volatility in the financial markets, add to the dovish, no hike case. Unfortunately the FOMC has conditioned the markets to react bearishly to hints of normalization such that there will never be a “good time” to commence liftoff. There’s been no need for the Fed to maintain its emergency policy stance all these years, and a 25 bp hike should have only limited impact, especially if policymakers continue to indicate a gradual path for the future.

US reports yesterday revealed a largely expected round of August retail sales and July business inventory figures that had no net impact on our GDP estimates of 3.0% growth in Q3 after an unrevised 3.7% figure in Q2, with real consumption growth of 3.0% in Q3 after a Q2 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.1% that was previously signaled by strong QSS data. We also saw a weak round of September Empire State figures that extended August weakness, alongside a big 0.4% August industrial production drop after a 0.9% (was 0.6%) July surge that reflected an even bigger than expected vehicle sector gyration around retooling. Today’s figures did little to alter the sales and inventory outlook, beyond reinforcing the view that factories face big headwinds from an inventory overhang and a vehicle sector drop-back after a July pop, and a petro-sector recession that’s been aggravated by further oil price declines.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The US Fed has started its two day meeting in which they are to decide whether to lift the interest rates from the zero level. There has been movement in AUD today. Currency has moved most against USD, EUR and GBP. AUDUSD is rallying and trying to move above 50% Fibonacci level and towards a 0.7219 resistance that coincides with a 61.8% retracement level and proximity of downward weekly regression channel. EURAUD is rolling over inside a topping formation and towards a support level at 1.5566. The pair is now trading below 1.5770 resistance. GBPAUD has reached a support provided by both 50 day SMA and the lower Bollinger Bands (20). This level is also a weekly high from six weeks ago. With this in mind and Stochastics oversold the current reversal signs in intraday resolutions should lead to a rally higher.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EMU final Aug HICP: The headline reading was expected to be confirmed at 0.2% y/y, but there is some risk of a downward revision, after yesterday’s weaker than expected French number. Lower energy prices are driving the annual rate down again, but the gap between the headline number and the core measure is widening. Even the latter remains far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but with the labour market starting to improve and economic heavyweight Germany posting sizeable increases in unit labour costs, underlying trends are picking up, even if energy price developments could push the headline rate back into negative territory in coming months.

• Canada Manufacturing: should rise 1.0% in July after the 1.2% gain in June. A 2.2% gain in exports provides a compelling reason to forecast another solid gain in manufacturing shipments during July. An as-expected gain in shipments would provide further support for the Q3 rebound scenario, supportive of no change in BoC policy for an extended period.

• US CPI: August CPI data should reveal a flat (median unchanged) headline with a 0.2% core increase. This would leave overall CPI up 0.2% y/y with the core index up 1.8% y/y. The drop in gasoline prices has weighed on price measures and we expect this to be the case in the CPI release where gasoline prices look poised to decline by 2% for the month. This effect was already visible in the month’s PPI data where we saw a flat headline for August as well.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #32  
Old 17-09-2015, 12:51
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 17th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

After moving lower EURUSD as expected but then rallied quite strongly and turned a down day into a close above the opening price for the day. The rally started after the pair reversed below my 1.1230 support at 1.1214 and was intensified by the US CPI figures. The headline CPI came in at disappointing -0.1% while the core CPI remained unchanged at 0.1%. A negative print on August CPI gave the Fed a last minute reminder that it continues to be well shy of its inflation mandate. This gave the markets a reason to sell the USD almost across the board. Only USDJPY bucked the trend yesterday. EURUSD then ran into a resistance slightly above my 1.1305 resistance and is trading sideways underneath it at the time of writing. This created a pin bar and a higher low in the daily chart. A pin bar that creates a higher low is a positive indication in this context and this has encouraged traders to push the price higher today. There however is a pivotal resistance ahead (1.1328 – 1.1373) while support levels are at 1.1230 and 1.1196. This being the Fed day I don’t expect the markets to push through the resistance before the rates announcement.

EURCHF is fractionally lower following the SNB announcement of unchanged policy and renewed pledge to intervene in the currency market if needed to counter franc appreciation. The central bank continues to class the franc as being “significantly overvalued.” EUR-CHF dipped to the 1.0950 from pre-announcement levels around 1.0975, which is little more than a 0.2% decline, and the cross remains well within the range it posted yesterday. Swiss policymakers have had success in undermining the franc’s status as a safe haven, with deeply negative deposit rates having caused a steady drip feed of yield-searching Swiss fund outflows. The franc is trading nearly 6.5 % lower than levels seen a couple of months ago, and the cross last week traded above 1.1000 for the first time since the SNB abandoned its former cap on the franc in January.

ECB and SNB – Waiting for the Fed: ECB council members continued to sound dovish as the focus shifts to tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. If the Fed delays the start of the tightening cycle it will make additional easing moves by the ECB more likely and that in turn would likely see the SNB follow suit with additional steps. Officials may be eager to stress that China’s exchange rate adjustment was not the start of a global currency war, but at least in Europe, it would well start to look like one.

FOMC Forecast revisions to be released at Thursday’s FOMC meeting should reveal sharp reversals of the June FOMC revisions for GDP and the jobless rate, as growth prospects should be boosted despite global market volatility. We expect all the 2015 GDP forecasts to be raised by 0.4%-0.6% after June’s downward bumps of 0.4%-0.8%, while all but the lowest jobless rate estimates are lowered 0.1% across the 2015-2017 period after 0.1%-0.2% June boosts in the lower end estimates. We believe policymakers low-balled their estimates in June to facilitate upward revisions at this month’s meeting that would help to justify rate lift-off. The 2015-16 PCE chain price estimates were also low-balled in June, though we do expect 0.2%-0.3% downward bumps for 2015. The core PCE chain price figures have tracked official projections, though forecast ranges may be narrowed. We expect big downward bumps in the high-end Fed funds estimates, as officials “tap down” rate expectations in keeping with a “one and done” 2015 rate strategy.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

New Zealand’s Q2 GDP grew at a 0.4% pace (q/q) following the 0.2% clip in Q1. The increase in Q1 undershot projections and leaves another quarter of disappointing growth for New Zealand’s economy. On an annual basis, GDP slowed to a 2.4% y/y pace from the revised 2.7% y/y clip in Q1 (was +2.6%). Growth has slowed considerably this year from the 3.5% y/y rate seen in Q4 of 2014. The slowing in annual growth is supportive of further rate cuts from the RBNZ.

The result has been that money has flowed away from the NZD benefitting especially USD, EUR and GBP. NZDUSD is down slightly at the levels it opened yesterday morning while EURNZD is trying to move up after forming a doji candle yesterday. GBPNZD is trading near a pivot high candle after yesterday’s rally and the advance today in the Asian session. All in all price action seems to be muted as markets wait for the Fed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• The SNB Interest Rate Decision.: The Swiss central bank did the expected and maintained the central Libor target and the deposit rate at -0.75%. The SNB sees growth picking up gradually in the second half and headline inflation in positive territory at the beginning of 2017. The statement highlighted that the CHF remains overvalued and confirmed the central bank’s commitment to intervene in forex markets if necessary. The statement highlighted growing uncertainty about developments in China and risks to the world growth outlook. The SNB will be watching Fed and ECB decisions carefully in coming months and if the ECB widens its QE program, the SNB could well react or pre-empt a move by cutting the deposit rate again even before the next policy review in December.

• US Housing Starts: August housing starts are out today and we expect the headline to decline 3.0% to a 1,170k (median 1,160k) pace from 1,206k in July. The July headline marked a high back to October of ’07. Also in the report is the latest data on permits, which we exepct to climb to 1,135k from 1,130k in July and completions, which are seen at 1,010k from 987k. Early data on housing for August remained firm with the NAHB at 61.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of September 12th are published today and should reveal a 282k (median 275k) headline from 275k last week. Claims are continuing to strike a firm path and we expect the September average to be 275k which would be steady from August, though above the 272k July average. This continued strength supports our September forecast for a 205k non-farm payrolls.

• The Fed Interest Rate Decision.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #33  
Old 18-09-2015, 10:57
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 18th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

In yesterday’s report I drew attention to EURUSD creating a pin bar and a higher low. This indicated further bullishness for euro but the upside was capped by the 1.1328 – 1.1378 resistance area. As expected, the pair didn’t move beyond the resistance before the Fed announcement yesterday. The decision to hold the rates at zero propelled EURUSD to the session high of 1.1441. Today, Stochastics are in the overbought region while the price is approaching the upper daily Bollinger Bands. In the weekly picture, price is inside the upper Bollinger Bands and right below the 50 week SMA. This is a reason for some caution for the euro bulls. The price is approaching the 1.1463 – 1.1520 resistance area after we’ve seen some follow through for yesterday’s upward momentum. The nearest support levels are 1.1374 and 1.1388.

FOMC left rates unchanged, citing concerns over global weakness. The key sentence in the statement was: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.” The Fed again noted weakness in net exports, and the fact that market based inflation measures had moved lower. It’s also “monitoring developments abroad,” while it sees balanced risks on the economy and labor market. The FOMC again indicated it will be appropriate to raise rates when it sees further improvement in the labor market and is “reasonably confident” that inflation will move back to the 2% target over the medium term. Lacker dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The Fed did reiterate that the economy is expanding at a moderate rate, housing has improved further, and the underutilization of labor resources has diminished.

Yellen said U.S. monetary policy is directed toward achieving the dual mandates set out by Congress. Of course policy changes have many cross currents, and capital flow implications. The exchange rate is one of a number of channels through which policy works. There are effects on the exchange rate, and yes the Fed needs to take those into account. The risk of a government shutdown played NO role in the Fed’s decision not to hike rates. Yellen said there is rationale for a rate hike now, but noted that financial conditions have tightened to some extent, and the situation abroad has become “more uncertain of late.” She added though, that the she doesn’t want to overplay the impact of overseas developments. She also reiterated that the path of policy is more important than the timing of the first move, and that most members still see a hike this year. The decision won’t depend on any particular data. In answering the first question, she said we can’t expect uncertainty to be fully resolved, but the Fed wanted to take a little more time to assess conditions. She has no recipe for what the FOMC wants to see before tightening. On the possibility for October, all meetings are “live.” So October remains a possibility, and the Fed would call a press conference if needed.

Fed funds futures are on the move higher after the FOMC remained on hold. Though prices in the futures market are still gyrating, the market is currently pricing in a 25 bp hike for December with a little better than 50-50 probability. We suspect improved market stability and less angst over global developments will open the door for an October hike, though soft inflation should make December a better bet.



Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

As the Fed decided not to raise rates the dollar weakness drove other currencies higher. This was especially the case with the commodity price sensitive AUD. Commodities are priced in USD and therefore a lower yielding dollar makes some commodities like Gold more attractive and in general cheaper to buy. This has supported the AUD today.

AUDUSD is trading at a resistance created by 50 day SMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and a historical resistance area between 0.7216 and 0.7276. The pair formed a daily shooting star candle yesterday and is at the time of the writing challenging the high of the candle. GBPAUD is back to the pin bar it created day before yesterday. This is a level where a historical support coincide with 50 day SMA and the lower Bollinger Bands.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Canadian CPI: We expect CPI to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in August, a slowdown from the 1.3% y/y clip in July. CPI is seen falling 0.2% on a month comparable basis in August after the 0.1% gain in July. Gas prices fell 3.5% in August compared to July, which is expected to drive the decline in month comparable CPI. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen rising 0.2% in August, similar to the action seen in past months of August. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.0% y/y rate in August following the 2.4% clip in July. The expected core CPI figure would, of course, leave the measure at the BoC’s 2.0% midpoint. However, Governor Poloz has maintained that run-up is transitory and not reflective of a tightening in supply conditions.

• The US CB Leading Indicator: The August index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to grow 0.2%. We expect yields to help support the headline. The six-month annual gain hit 8.8% in July last year, the highest reading since 10.7% seen in April of 2010. The Conference Board’s preferred recession threshold for the LEI is a six-month annualized reading below -3.5% and a six-month diffusion average below 50%. We wouldn’t read much into this index, as the historical swings “line up” with back data due to repeated “best fit” revisions of the index figures rather than a real-time correlation. The Conference Board revises the index in January, given the massive divergence since 2009 between index levels and reported GDP growth.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #34  
Old 22-09-2015, 12:19
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 22nd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd September 2015.




EURUSD, 240 min

In the last Currency Movers report I pointed out several technical factors that should cause the bulls to be cautious. And they sure did! EURUSD tumbled down from the 1.1463 resistance identified in the report. Today the pair is trading above 1.1151 support level we identified in the chart in September 18th analysis. Today’s low has been 1.1153. Stochastics is now getting oversold while price is trading near lower Bollinger Bands and the 50 day SMA. We have a pin bar in the 240 min chart as buyers are trying to step in but there has been no follow through. The resistance at 1.1210 has been holding them back. This suggests price should move further into support and closer to the 50 day SMA before it can attempt a turnaround. As the pair is at support it is likely that the weakness is soon overdone and we’ll first see a slowdown in the rate of decline and then a counter-move to the down move that took place over the last two days. If this takes place the 1.1280 looks like a realistic target for the move after which I’m expecting further decline. Significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1093 and 1.1280.

Yesterday’s dollar-driven decline in EURUSD came at the wake of hawkish remarks from Fed’s Bullard and, to a lesser extent, Lacker. Bullard, presently a non-FOMC voter, said that there is a “powerful case to be made” for rate lift-off. This contrasted with ECB’s Praet, who said in remarks after the European close that the central bank would “forcefully” react should the inflation environment worsen. There is a bearish case to be made for EURUSD despite the Fed’s relatively dovish guidance, as the dollar has yield advantage, particularly at the long end, and with the ECB likely to counter any euro strength with its own dovish guidance.

The September UK CBI industrial trends undershot expectations, unexpectedly dropping to a -7 reading in the headline total orders reading, down form 0 in August, though above July’s cycle low at -10. Export orders dove sharply to -24, down from -6 in August, while the expectations balance fell to a +9 reading, the lowest since October 2013. The strong pound, which is near seven-year highs in trade-weighted terms, is blighting the export performance, which continues to be the weak link in the manufacturing sector.

Praet: ECB would “forcefully react” if inflation objective pushed out further. Praet was careful not to sound too pessimistic about global headwinds, saying that the ECB doesn’t “want to create of course self-fulfilling expectations at the same time by conveying pessimistic messages” and repeated the central bank’s message from the last meeting that it is “too early to draw firm conclusions about the environment, it is too early to tell”, but he also stressed that the ECB doesn’t want to deny “that the situation can be very unfavorable in the European context”. The central bank is hedging its bets while watching global developments, but also forex markets. The currency may well be the decisive factor that could trigger further ECB easing, even if Draghi won’t admit that. Earlier in the day Praet still said that there are some signs that inflation has turned the corner, but the comments confirm that the ECB wants to send a dovish message and Draghi will have a chance to clarify the ECB’s stance at tomorrow’s testimony to the European Parliament.

SF Fed study says market based inflation expectations are poor predictors of future inflation. Remember the FOMC has been distinguishing between market based measures and survey based measures in its recent policy statements, noting that the former had moved lower while the latter had remained stable. The market based measures that were studied were TIPS break evens and inflation swap rates, while the authors looked at 2 types of survey measures, including the Philly Fed’s Survey of Private Forecasters and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, along with methods incorporating “no-change” forecasts based on current CPI values. According to the study published in the current FRBSF Economic Letter, “a simple constant inflation rate corresponding to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target consistently performs best.” Maybe the FOMC shouldn’t worry too much about the softening in the market based measures?



Currency Movers Charts

Hawkish sentiment from the Fed officials was seen to move USD higher and EUR down after EURUSD turned lower from the level we identified in Friday’s report. This has brought the EUR pairs near support levels today. EURUSD is trading at a pivotal support while EURJPY has declined to daily Bollinger Bands near levels that attracted buyers on September 4th. EURAUD moved at first closer to a support at 1.5566 (also at Bollinger Bands) but rallied and created a 4h pin bar. EURGBP looks weaker as it is trading below resistance levels but has no clear support before 0.7170.

Safe haven currency JPY has gathered momentum today as global stock markets are down together with commodities such as Copper and Crude Oil. AUDJPY is falling after violating support at 85.82 and forming a shooting star candle three days ago.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• Australian House Price Index: The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 4.7% in the June quarter 2015. The index rose 9.8% through the year to the June quarter 2015.

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing: UK government borrowing surpasses expectations in August data, rising to GBP 12.1 bln in the non-financial figure. The consensus forecast had been for GBP 9.2 bln, while borrowing was up by GBP 1.4 bln on August 2014. The picture looks better in the financial year to date (from April), with borrowing down GBP 4.4 bln over this period. While the deficit has halved under the government’s austerity program, net government debt still remains over 80% of GDP.

• US Housing Price Index: markets expect the Housing Price Index number to come in at 0.4%. Home price index rose 0.2% in June from May’s 0.5%. On an annual basis, prices are up 5.6% y/y.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #35  
Old 23-09-2015, 11:08
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 23rd September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 23rd September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

I stated in yesterday’s report that EURUSD should move further into support and closer to the 50 day SMA before it can attempt a turnaround. This is indeed what happened: this morning price hit the 50 day SMA and the Bollinger Bands. Apart from trading at Bollinger and SMA support the pair is at levels that turned it higher from on 4th September. However, the latest weekly pivot candle low is at 1.1214, which is relatively near to the current trading levels. This implies that any rally from the current levels might be short lived and therefore probably doesn’t encourage buyers to buy the EURUSD today. Draqhi speech (1pm GMT today) is not expected to contain specific measures but is still expected to have a dovish tune. I therefore expect that the pair will test the 1.1017 – 1.1087 support range today.

French PMIs unexpectedly improve, with the manufacturing reading rising above the 50-point no change mark to 50.4 from 48.3 in the previous month. The services reading rose to 51.2 from 50.6. It seems the French economy is finally back in expansion territory, although readings have been volatile and while there may be a cyclical recovery, helped by the stabilisation elsewhere in the Eurozone, France’s underlying problems remain largely unaddressed, which heralds further weakness ahead.

Eurozone composite PMI fell to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in the previous month. The manufacturing reading dropped to 52.0 from 52.3 and the services to 54.0 from 54.0. Readings are broadly in line with our forecast, but slightly below consensus. The overall numbers remain firmly above the 50 point mark, thus pointing to ongoing robust expansion across both sectors and in the overall economy, while the country breakdown showed France finally catching up and thus a more balanced picture. Growth may not be accelerating, but at least so far it is still consolidating, even as clouds gather on the horizon.

German PMIs decline, but remain at healthy levels. In contrast to the French PMI readings, the German numbers corrected more than anticipated, with the manufacturing reading falling to 52.5 from 53.3 and the services number dropping to 54.3 from 54.9. Despite the correction, the numbers still point to robust expansion in both sector and continue to look healthy compared to France. Domestic demand in particular is boosting the German recovery, with low unemployment and inflation leading to very strong gains in real disposable income. However, this is not really sustainable growth in the medium to long term and investment remains an issue, as is the slowdown in emerging market economies, which is hitting German exports. The emission scandal meanwhile is a further negative for automakers going ahead.



Currency Movers Charts

I highlighted in the September 18th report that AUDUSD was trading at a resistance and formed a daily shooting star candle. Those that traded accordingly have since enjoyed a great short trade. Today AUD is down against all the other major currencies as well. EURAUD formed a narrow bodied pin bar yesterday and has been rising higher today. GBPAUD has continued its turnaround and has moved to 2.1840 resistance that has now caused a reaction lower. AUDJPY has also been moving down after I highlighted it in my yesterday’s report. AUDCAD has been falling in line with the other AUD pairs but the fall has been helped by the Crude rising today almost by 0.90%.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• China PMI: Caixin/Markit flash manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0 in September from 47.3 in August. It’s a 3rd straight monthly decline, the 7th consecutive reading below the 50 expansion/contraction mark, and is the lowest level since March 2009. The output component dropped to 45.7 from 46.4, while the new orders component slid to the lowest print since November 2011. The drop is exacerbating concerns over slowing growth.

• French Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0.0% q/q, while the annual rate was revised up marginally to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y reported initially. The stagnation in the second quarter has to be seen in conjunction with the strong first quarter, but nevertheless, the disappointing number also reflects chronic underperformance of the French economy, which is struggling to come to grips with its structural problems.

• ECB Draghi Speech: The ECB President will testify before the European Parliament today and expectations that he will deliver a very dovish statement are mounting. The ECB’s official line at the last meeting was that it’s too early to assess the impact of global headwinds for the inflation outlook, but that the ECB is ready to act again if the objective is being pushed further out. The central bank is hedging its bets while watching global developments, but also forex markets. In our view, the currency may well be the decisive factor that could trigger further ECB easing, even if Draghi won’t admit that. So for now, we expect a dovish statement, but no firm commitment of further measures.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #36  
Old 24-09-2015, 12:31
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 24th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 24th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

Draghi disappointed and wasn’t as dovish as expected. This helped the EURUSD rally. This morning the pair has been fighting the 1.1214 resistance today and even formed a 4h pin bar at the level but has now pushed itself through the level. The last week’s low at 1.1214 caused the resistance. As the pair is trading near the lower end of the weekly price range and encouraged by the turnaround at the support yesterday traders were able to push the price higher. Nearest support range is at 1.1017 – 1.1087 while the first resistances are at 1.1261 and then 1.1388. The pair will face 4h Bollinger bands and the 50 period SMA at the same levels with the 1.1261 resistance.

Elsewhere EURCHF has reinstalled itself in the mid-1.09s after ECB’s Draghi didn’t produce the dovish sound-bites that many had expected at his testimony before the European parliament yesterday. The Swiss economy minister Schneider-Ammann also said yesterday that “we travel in the direction of purchasing power parity,” and that “his journey is not yet finished, as purchasing power remains significantly above 1.20 Swiss francs per euro.”

The SNB’s announcement of unchanged policy last Thursday, and a renewed pledge to intervene in the currency market if needed, had little impact. The central bank continues to class the franc as being “significantly overvalued,” though it has had some success in undermining the franc’s status as a safe haven, with deeply negative deposit rates having caused a steady drip feed of yield-searching Swiss fund outflows. The franc is trading some 6% lower than levels seen a couple of months ago.

German Ifo business confidence unexpectedly improved in September, driven, not by an improvement in the current conditions reading but a rise in the expectations number, the first since July. The current conditions index actually dipped. Overall readings remain at high levels and the diffusion index showed that optimists now outnumber pessimists across all sectors. The breakdown also reveals that sentiment remains driven by consumption and retail trade, with low unemployment, sizeable wage gains and low inflation boosting real disposable income.

German consumer confidence drops sharply. The Gfk consumer confidence reading for October fell to 9.6 from 9.9 in the previous month. The much weaker than expected number adds to concerns about the outlook, although the overall reading remains at a very high level in a long term comparison. The breakdown, which is available until September, shows a sharp decline in overall business expectations, which also depressed income expectations and the willingness to buy.

French Sep business confidence held steady at 100 in September, but manufacturing confidence improved on a marked rise in the own company production outlook to 14 from 8 in the previous month. The better than expected numbers tie in with the improvement in France’s PMI readings, released yesterday, which suggested a move back into expansion territory for both services and manufacturing sectors. Still, today’s survey also showed the reading for overall order-books falling further into negative territory, despite the fact that foreign order books remained stable.



Currency Movers Charts

Over the last five days GBP has lost a lot of ground against all the other competitors except AUD which has been the weakest of the lot. This has brought the GBPUSD to levels that could attract buyers. It is trading at weekly Bollinger bands and at a daily pivotal candle but the nearest resistance level is fairly close at 1.5330 while the nearest support level is at 1.5162. Other GBP pairs are also near support levels: GBPCAD bounced yesterday and formed a daily pin bar and GBPNZD has fallen to 4h Bollinger Bands and has pivotal support nearby.

AUDUSD is approaching daily Bollinger bands and support which indicates that it is time to close the shorts opened after the shooting stars were formed.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of September 19th should reveal an increase to 270k (median 271k) after a prior dip to 264k from 275k. Claims are continuing to strike a lean path as we head into fall and September looks poised to average 272k from 275k in August and 272k in July. This supports our forecast for further strength in September employment where we expect a 205k nonfarm payroll headline with the unemployment rate steady at 5.1%.

• US New Home Sales: August new home sales should reveal a 5.4% headline increase to a 515k (median 515k) pace in August following a 507k clip in July and a 481k pace in June. Major housing measures have eased in August with both existing home sales and starts dropping back from firm summer readings. However, sentiment remains strong and the NAHB climbed to 61 in August from 60 in July.

• US Durable Goods: August durable goods data is expected to show a 3.0% (median -0.5%) decline for orders with shipments down 0.5% and inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective July figures of 2.2% for orders, 1.0% for shipments and -0.1% for inventories. August saw a general slowing in other transport and industrial measures with industrial production down 0.4% for the month, Boeing orders falling to 52 from 101 and the ISM declining to 51.1 from 52.7.

[B]• Fed Chair Yellen’s upcoming speech is keeping the markets nervous,/B] though we doubt she’ll change her tune or give any new policy clues. The FOMC has already lost some credibility by not hiking rates last week while citing concerns over China, global growth, and low inflation, and back tracking would further erode market trust. She should leave the door open for a rate hike next month, or in December by reiterating all meetings are in play, and stating the Committee is monitoring data and financial conditions. The Fed’s Lockhart speaks again shortly and is expected to repeat prior comments.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #37  
Old 29-09-2015, 12:32
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 29th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has been moving higher despite Yellen’s comments last week that the Fed is likely to raise rates by the end of the year. This suggests that the potential rate hikes are already priced in the EURUSD or alternatively markets just don’t believe the Fed will follow through and action on their promises. The move higher from the Bollinger Band support has lifted EURUSD near 1.1296 resistance where it has faced some supply and momentum has slowed down. There is support at 1.1210 that roughly coincides with a bullish pin bar high from Friday. The 50 Day SMA is pointing higher and has been supporting price while Stochastics point higher. EURUSD is ranging while many other EUR pairs are also in a range mode and currently at resistance. These include EURCAD, EURNZD, EURGBP and EURAUD. Either EUR has to slowly push through all these resistances or alternatively it needs to react lower and look for lower levels to bounce from and then have another attempt at the resistances. There is weakness in the EURUSD 1h picture at the time of writing. The 60 min chart created a lower high after a shooting star candle at resistance. The nearest support levels are 1.1212 and 1.1115 while the nearest resistance level is at 1.1296.

Fed’s Evans said an “extra-patient” approach to tightening is warranted in his prepared remarks on Thoughts on Leadership and Monetary Policy. Remember, Evans is a dove who sided with the consensus to delay tightening at the September 16, 17 meeting. He added “later liftoff…and a gradual subsequent approach…best position the economy for the potential challenges ahead” and warned that there are “substantial costs to premature normalization.” He wants to see upward movement in inflation before he pulls the trigger and worries that the slowdown in China and weaker energy prices could damp inflation. He did acknowledge that his view is somewhat more accommodative versus the Fed median estimate. According to Fed dove Evans: the Fed is closer to a rate hike and the Fed needs to communicate that, but China risk did influence the September decision. The Chicago Fed voter noted that more accommodation would be needed “if things were to weaken very much.” This is pretty much in line with earlier remarks arguing in favor of delay, but Evans has been one of the more outspoken doves for some time.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 1.8% for Q3 compared to the 1.4% previous estimate last week. As the Atlanta Fed states: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.8 percent on September 28, up from 1.4 percent on September 24. The model’s forecast of the growth rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the third quarter increased from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent after this morning’s report on personal income and outlays from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.” That puts the model closer to the 2.5% consensus of Blue Chip economists than any time since early August, compared to our own GDP forecast of 3.0% for Q3. See the Atlanta Fed website for more detail.

US Dallas Fed manufacturing index edged up a bit to -9.5 in September, from -15.8 in August. But it’s still a 9th consecutive negative print and reflects the ongoing weakness resulting from the plunge in oil. The employment component fell to -6.1 from -1.4, a 5th consecutive sub-zero number. The workweek was -11.1 from 0.6, and wages slipped to 15.6 versus 18.2. New orders improved to -4.6 from -12.5. Prices paid were -0.3 from -8.0. Production, however, rose to 0.9 versus -0.8. The 6-month activity index rose to 4.8 from 3.4.



Currency Movers Charts

Negative news flow around the mining industry and Chinese economic weakness has once again pressured the AUD. One of the news items this morning was that mining giant Glencor’s shares are down over 70% year to date after the shares dropped 30% without any particular news item. The price of shares has come down together with the price of Copper and Steel. While AUD has lost ground money has flowed into JPY and EUR since yesterday’s close.

Over the last three days we’ve seen money flowing out of NZD, CAD and AUD while JPY, EUR and USD have attracted funds. This has lifted up trending EURNZD to a resistance just below 1.8000. AUDUSD moved to 0.6938 support as suggested in my report yesterday. USDJPY is trading at support and in daily Bollinger Bands at the bottom end of the recent trading range. AUDJPY is also trading at daily Bollinger Band support which suggests that the JPY move is getting overdone. CHFJPY also created a bullish pin bar yesterday and signals therefore a move higher in the pair.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

[B]• UK BoE Lending: We expect a rise in headline mortgage approvals of 69.8k in September (median 70.0k) after August’s 68.8k tally. The mortgage market is being underpinned by a strong labour market, rising real incomes, and something of a rush to secure a low-rate mortgage deal before the BoE pulls the rate hike trigger. Lending to non-financial businesses will be a focus as this has been a weak spot in the UK’s recovery story to date.

• Eurozone ESI: ESI Economic Confidence is expected to fall to 104.0 (median same) from 104.2 in the previous month. Italian and French national data were surprisingly strong and there is room for an upside surprise. Overall, the overall numbers remain at high levels, consistent with ongoing expansion. So far domestic demand remains underpinned by strong consumption, which in turn is boosted by stabilising labour markets and a pick up in wage growth, but downside risks have clearly increased, as external demand is threatened by the slowdown in emerging markets and as the emission scandal is hanging over European automakers.

• U.S. Consumer Confidence: September consumer confidence is out Tuesday and is expected to decline to 97.0 (median 97.0) from 101.5 in August. Other measures of confidence have already declined in September with Michigan Sentiment falling to 87.2 from 91.9 in August and the IBD/TIPP poll dropping to 42.0 from 46.9 in August.



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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

I look forward to seeing you there!
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #38  
Old 29-09-2015, 16:11
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Is this possible to use your trading analysis successfully to make trades on zero spread account? I'm going to make at least 5 trades daily can I use your outlook for that?
Thanks in advance.
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  #39  
Old 30-09-2015, 12:39
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 30th September 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 30th September 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD daily chart observations show a pause in the August price advance from 1.0850 to 1.1713 with current price lacking direction. The fact that price had stopped near the 260 period moving average around the 1.17 area gives reason that downward pressure on price is still present. Further moving average analysis spots a bullish double moving average cross of the 10 and 50 MA that accrued around mid August. Additionally, a bullish stochastic oscillator supports my technical view that price may attempt to make a new lower top sub 1.1460 before tracing out some range trading between 1.1460 and 1.1090. Traders may look to stand aside while price trades in a range or attempts to play the range between the relevant support and resistance levels indicated on the above EURUSD daily chart.

The German jobs market is looking healthy as the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.4% and wage growth is accelerating, which together with low inflation is pushing up disposable income and underpinning consumption. France has been underperforming Germany amid the lack of structural reforms and weak productivity growth, but latest confidence indicators suggest that despite the fundamental weakness in the French economy, there is somewhat of a cyclical recovery that is having a positive effect.

ECB’s Hansson: “Everything is possible” on QE. The Finnish central bank head said at a conference in Italy that “it is too early to discuss changes to the quantitative easing program”. He added that there are “moderate” inflation pressures in the Eurozone and that “a lot depends on how inflation will develop, if it slows or accelerates”. So for now the ECB remains in wait and see mode, while keeping the door to further easing wide open.

Asian stocks rallied. The Nikkei 225 closed with the solid 2.7% gain and Australia’s ASX 200 with an impressive 2.1% rise, while the Shanghai Composite was showing just over a 1% advance in late PM session.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in September rose to 103 from 101.3 in August. This points to a continuation of strong consumer spending.



Currency Movers Charts

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The JPY is trading slightly higher across the board even through Japan Retail Sales shrank in July, the AUD is sharply lower as continued weakness in China and commodities prices will dominate the path of the AUD.

The EUR is showing some signs of strength as price trades in a recent range as the market wait for the U.S. jobs report data on Friday.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP UK Q2 GDP data show an unexpected down revision to 2.4% y/y from the 2.6% provisional estimate, though the q/q figure is unchanged at 0.7% growth. The quarterly growth figure is an improvement on Q1′s 0.4%, though deteriorating global conditions and survey evidences point to a ebb in Q3 growth back to a 0.5% rate.

• EUR German retail sales: Dropped 0.4% m/m,less of a correction from the strong rise in July but against consensus expectations for a slight rise over the month. Retail sales cover less than 50% of overall consumption and are likely understating overall trends, although annual increases in retail sales also remain robust as low unemployment, sizable wage gains and low inflation boost real disposable income.

• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index Producer sentiment looks poised to improve slightly with the ISM-adjusted average holding at 51 from August and 53 in July and June.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Old 01-10-2015, 13:01
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 1st October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to lack direction within the daily chart and it is beginning to appear that a trading range may be forming between the 1.1460 and 1.1090 levels over the short term. This period of lackluster price action should remain as the market waits for the U.S. jobs data due out on Friday. Traders should look towards commodity prices for any signs of a bottoming which may contradict data that still points to slower global growth. The likelihood of a stronger USD and weaker EUR should remain as the main trend into the year end as fallout from the European automotive industry and the likelihood of further ECM QE increases.

Today’s mixed European PMI readings will give ECB policy makers something to argue about at the next council meeting, especially as downside risks are picking up in light of developments in the global economy and the fallout from the emission scandal for European automakers. The current mixed readings are clearly showing up in the EUR as price has yet to choose a direction with trader’s undecided on which side of the trade to take.

The global stock market rebound is still continuing for now, despite a dip in Japan’s Tankan index, and stabilization in China’s manufacturing PMI at contraction levels. The USD has been trading firmer against the EUR and GBP over the last 5 trading days on the back of a strong Wall Street close and follow-up gain in Asian stock markets. The AUD and CAD, meanwhile, rallied to one-week highs versus the USD, while the NZD hit a two-week peak.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR is mostly weaker against the majors as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggests a slight slowdown in overall growth dynamics, but a more balanced picture across the Eurozone.

The GBP is trading mixed after the UK manufacturing PMI came in fractionally above market forecast.

The CHF is sharply lower in the wake of an unexpected dip in the Swiss SVME manufacturing PMI.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Manufacturing PMI: The UK manufacturing PMI is fractionally above forecast at 51.5 in September data. The survey this month indicates stabilization in the sector at moderate expansion, holding just above the two-year low point at 51.4, which was seen in June. Sterling has traded modestly higher in the wake of the data.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 270k (median 270k) in the week-ended September 26. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,213k for the week-ended September 19. Forecast risk: downward, as volatility concerns could give businesses pause.

• USD Manufacturing ISM: The September ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.1 in August. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in the early month reports. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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