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  #121  
Old 04-07-2016, 11:43
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 4th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th JULY 2016.




THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

United States: US stock and bond markets are closed today for the independence celebrations. There are only two items of note on the abbreviated week’s calendar, the June jobs report (Friday) and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). But with the much changed landscape following Brexit, and the Fed sidelined for the foreseeable future, there may be limited impact from these reports. The jobs report will be important, however, as we look to gauge whether the weakness in April and May data was more an anomaly or a new trend. The FOMC minutes to the June 14, 15 policy meeting will be of lesser value since the discussions will seem rather irrelevant after the surprise Brexit vote. Other data reports this week include the June ISM non-manufacturing index (Wednesday), May factory orders (Tuesday), May trade (Wednesday), and June ADP payrolls (Thursday). The services ISM is expected to bounce back to 53.5 after slipping 2.8 points to 52.9 in May. Such a rebound would help alleviate worries over general economic slowdown. Factory orders are forecast falling 0.7% given the 2.2% drop already reported in durable orders. The May trade deficit is seen widening to -$40.0 bln, after expanding to -$37.4 bln in April, with imports climbing another 1.3% after the 2.1% April jump, while exports should inch up 0.1% after a 1.5% gain previously. The ADP report, which will set the stage for the BLS jobs report, is expected to post a 165k private payroll increase.

Canada: Slate of economic data in Canada is heavy this week. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (today) is expected to reveal divergent moves in sentiment among industries. The impact of the Alberta wildfires and production shutdown should weigh heavily on oil industry sentiment. However, the outlook for the rest of the economy should see further modest improvement. The trade report (Wednesday) is seen revealing a slight unwinding of the trade deficit to -A$2.8 bln from -A$2.9 bln in April. Exports are seen falling 3.0% in May, while imports suffer a similar sized decline to leave the deficit little changed. But the risk is to the downside for both the May deficit and the size of the export pull-back. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to improve 1.0% in value terms during May after the 0.3% dip in April. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is seen improving to 51.0 in June from 49.4 in May. Finally, the employment report (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k jobs gain alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.0% from 6.9% in May.

Europe: the EMU June Services PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 52.8. The manufacturing reading was revised up, which leaves room for an upward revision to the composite, but while survey data confirmed that the economic recovery gathered pace again at the end of Q2, Markit said with the release of the manufacturing number that responses were gathered ahead of the Brexit result, so that they don’t capture the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU. German manufacturing orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday) data for May will be even more out of date in light of the recent events. Even if there are sizeable large- ticket items in the orders number that should underpin industrial production going ahead, the risk is that the Brexit referendum will lead to cancellations as investment projects are being put on hold until the future relationship between the rest of the EU and the U.K. is more clear. For what it’s worth, we are looking for a rebound in manufacturing orders of 0.8% m/m (med same), after the -2.0% m/m contraction in the previous month, while production is expected to ease -0.2% m/m (median 0.0%). The data calendar also has Eurozone May retail sales (Tuesday), German trade data for May (Friday), as well as French production numbers (Friday) and EMU PPI (today), none of which will change the outlook, which currently hinges on the Brexit fallout. Events include a German 2-year sale on Wednesday, which will likely see strong demand in the current climate.

United Kingdom: Incoming data will remain largely irrelevant while the numbers continue to pre-date the Brexit vote. The timely YouGov/CEBR consumer confidence survey, which gives weekly updates, gave a taste of what may come, with its headline reading of 104.3 in the days after June 23, down from 111.9 for the first three weeks of June. There is also growing anecdotal evidence of slowing activity in the property market and the market for high ticket items, such as cars. Against this backdrop, it’s difficult to be anything by bearish of sterling, especially against the dollar, which will be natural safe haven refuge from European strife. We expect the pound to see 1.2500 against the dollar before long.

China: June Caixin services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast dipping to 51.0 from 51.2. June fixed investment is due during the week and CPI numbers on Saturday.

Japan: In Japan, the June Nikkei PMI services PMI will be reported (Tuesday). It improved to 50.4 in May from 49.3 previously. May preliminary leading and coincident indices are due (Thursday), followed by June 1st 20-day trade data (Friday). The May current account surplus (Friday) is expected to narrow to JPY 1,800.0 bln from 1,878.5 bln. June bank loan data are also due (Friday).

Australia: In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to maintain the 1.75% setting for the cash rate. The RBA left its official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in June, as had been widely anticipated. In May, they unexpectedly cut to 1.75% from 2.00% following an unanticipated drop in Q1 inflation. Economic data features the May trade report (Tuesday), expected to reveal a deeper -C$1.8 bln deficit in May from the -A$1.6 bln deficit in April. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen improving 0.4% in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Building approvals (Monday) are expected to fall 3.0% in May after the 3.0% gain in April. The May ANZ job ads and the May Melbourne Institute inflation index are both due Monday. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle speaks, Wednesday, at the Thomson Reuters industry event: Examining the FX Code of Conduct (Phase One).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #122  
Old 11-07-2016, 16:05
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 11th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th JULY 2016.




The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There’s a flurry of data in the U.S. economic calendar for the second week of July (mostly on Friday) after the markets readily absorbed the rebound in June payrolls that gave the Fed a elbow room on the data front. Starting slowly, May wholesale sales (Tuesday) are forecast to rise 0.8% (median 0.5%), while inventories may rise 0.2% and JOLTS job openings for May are due. Next up, MBA mortgage applications have been on fire in the wake the drop in mortgage rates (Wednesday) and June import prices are seen rising 0.6% as export prices gain 0.3%. EIA energy inventory data last week set crude on a southerly course and will again be closely monitored. The Treasury budget should show a $23 bln surplus in June vs -$52.5 bln deficit in May. PPI for June is set to rise 0.3% (Thursday), or 0.1% core, while initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 265k. Ironically, the Fed finds itself on the sidelines after Brexit, just as data are starting to show policymakers are closing in on their goals. Price pressures are starting to heat up, with the survey medians showing CPI (all Friday) increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, for the June headline and core indexes, in line with our forecasts. Retail sales are expected to be flat, (median rising slightly by 0.1% gain) in the headline and 0.3% rise ex-auto (0.4% median). Empire State may ease to 5.0 in July (median 5.0) from 6.0, with industrial production expected to be unchanged in June (median 0.2%) vs -0.4%; capacity use seen steady at 74.9% (median 75.1%). Michigan sentiment should steady at 93.0 in July (median 93.5) vs 93.5 in June, while business inventories are forecast flat for May (median 0.1%). Fed Beige Book should reiterate modest growth in the economy, which will be the basic outline for the upcoming July 26-27 FOMC meeting. However, it won’t matter much as Brexit and the FX and economic fallout have yet to impact. The June report said activity had been increasing at a moderate pace in most of the 12 Districts, with Chicago and KC noting some slowing. There were modest gains in consumer spending, moderate growth in the service sector, manufacturing activity was mixed, and energy still weak. And though tight labor markets were reported, wages and prices were growing only modestly.

Canada: The Bank of Canada is front and center this week. We expect Wednesday’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report to reveal no change in the current 0.50% rate setting alongside a continuation of the cautiously optimistic growth and inflation outlook. There may be a bit more caution given recent market volatility following the Brexit vote and a run of disappointing data (May trade, June jobs, Q2 Business Outlook Survey). Yet we suspect Governor Poloz will maintain that Canada’s economy remains on track for an eventual return to self-sustaining growth given current very accommodative policy, an expanding U.S. economy and what should be a boost from federal fiscal stimulus. Housing starts (today) are expected to nudge higher a 190.0k unit growth rate in June from the 188.5k clip in May. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are anticipated to fall 1.0% in May after the 1.0% increase in April. The June Teranet/National Bank housing price index (Wednesday), May new home price index (Thursday) and June Existing home sales (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Data releases this week will be too backward looking to add much to the overall outlook, especially as they are mainly focusing on final Eurozone inflation data for June. German HICP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% y/y, French (Wednesday) at 0.3% y/y and overall Eurozone HICP (Friday)at 0.1% y/y. Base effects helped headline rates to move out of negative territory in June, but numbers remain very low and would not stand in the way of further easing, if Draghi sees the need. The Eurozone also has production data for May (Wednesday), which is likely to confirm that growth slowed down markedly in the second quarter.

United Kingdom: The UK data calendar is quiet this week. It won’t be until early August that we get the first official data that encompasses conditions after the June 23 referendum. Please see the calendar for further details on this week’s releases.

China: China released June CPI and PPI over the weekend, which came in at 1.9% y/y from 2.0% from the former, and -2.6% y/y from -2.8% for the latter. The soft inflation data may add to concerns over the economy’s growth pace. The June trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed to $45.0 bln from $50.0 bln in May. The balance of data comes on Friday, with a lot of focus on Q2 GDP, where growth is expected to slow to 6.5% y/y from Q1’s 6.7% outcome. June industrial production is forecast to fall to a 5.8% y/y growth pace, from 6.0% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at 9.8% y/y from 10.0% in May. Such reports could weigh on investor sentiment.

Japan: In Japan, May machine orders (Today) came down hefty 19.9% m/m after dropping 24.7% in April to the lowest level of the year (and -8.2% y/y). June PPI (Tuesday) likely edged up to -4.1% y/y from -4.2%. Revised May industrial production is on tap on (Wednesday) and is seen unchanged at a 1.0% y/y rate.

Australia: In Australia, the calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k job gain in June after the 17.9k rise in May. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, up from 5.7% in May. Home loans (today) dropped by -1.0% m/m in May after the 1.4% increase in April (revised down from 1.7%). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Financial Stability, Luci Ellis, delivers a speech to the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, hosted by the University of Sydney (Tuesday). Ellis participates in a panel discussion (Thursday) at the 2016 FMA Asia/Pacific Conference, Sydney.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #123  
Old 12-07-2016, 13:25
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 12th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th JULY 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets in Japan continued to rally, and the Yen weakened as Abe’s election victory cleared the way for more “Abenomics”. Gains in other Asian markets were more modest and while U.S. stock futures are moving higher, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, despite the fact that the BoE is expected to cut rates once again on Thursday. The U.K. may have a new Prime Minister by tomorrow evening and Theresa May, poised to take over from Cameron, could start exit talks earlier than previously thought. So far she hasn’t taken a soft approach and refused to rule out the deportation of EU citizens already working and living in the U.K., which will not go down well in the city. EU finance ministers will meet today and after the Eurogroup yesterday backed the Commission’s recommendations for fines on Spain and Portugal budget overshoots, this is likely to be approved by the Ecofin today. The issue of Italy’s plans to recapitalize Italian banks without bail-ins remains open. The data calendar has German final June inflation at the start of the session, more inflation data from Sweden and Portugal and Irish GDP numbers for Q1. Nothing that would change key central bank outlooks for now. The BoE releases the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee, which was held on June 28, that is after the referendum and may attract more attention than usual if there are more warnings on the possible fallout.

US Data Reports: The stock market got another free pass from prospects of fresh stimulus in Japan following the landslide election of Abe, as investors hoped to collect $200 in “helicopter” money, not go directly to jail or at least get some free parking near historic highs. News that Japan machinery orders plunged and former Fed chief Bernanke was paying a visit to BoJ buddies fueled that speculation and related asset rebalancing. This took some starch out of bonds, gold and the yen, while WTI crude also eased 1%, back under $45. S&P 500, hit fresh record highs at 2,143, The NASDAQ cleared 5,000, and the Dow marked a session high 18,283.

Brexit Aftermath: The uncertainty surrounding the new UK Prime Minister evaporated yesterday as Theresa May became the only candidate, following the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom. David Cameron will tender his resignation to the Queen on Wednesday after chairing his last Cabinet meeting today. Brexit means Brexit, May has said. The GBP and the FTSE both rallied yesterday with some of the uncertainty over the government, post-Brexit, now out of the way. GBPUSD currently trades significantly north of 1.3000 at 1.3074.

Fedspeak: The Fed’s Esther George welcomed the good news from Friday’s jobs report and said it shows the resilience of the economy. She said consumers are continuing to spend, while household confidence is up. However, business investment has been relatively weak, though it’s been holding up ok outside of the energy and manufacturing sectors. She added that the strong dollar and weaker global growth may hurt exports. Keeping rates too low carries risks, reminded the long-time Fed hawk (and 2016 voter), and said the current level of Fed policy is too soft, in her opinion. There are limits to what monetary policy can achieve, but it’s getting closer to achieving its goals. Core inflation has been firming and the pace of job creation has been noteworthy. But demand for middle-skilled workers has dropped sharply and the recovery has not been evenly spread across the workforce. She thinks that gradual rate increase will help the FOMC achieve its goals. Though she’s one of the more hawkish on the FOMC, her comments don’t suggest she’ll push for a rate hike as soon as the July 26, 27 FOMC meeting due to Brexit fallout, but she is likely to argue for a hike at the September 20, 21 meeting if the markets are stable and Brexit fears have diminished.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Governor Carney Speaks – Testifies before the Treasury Select Committee about the Bank of England Financial Stability Report. Unlikely to reveal anything particularly new ahead of Thursdays MPC meeting announcement.
JOLTS Job Openings – This data point is a particular favourite FED Chair Mrs. Yellen so will have added interest today in particular following the strong NFP data on Friday. Last month there were 5.79m job openings posted with expectations that his month the number will be slightly lower at 5.74m.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #124  
Old 13-07-2016, 15:08
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 13th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th JULY 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market recovery continued in Asia overnight, (Nikkei 225 closed up +0.84% at 16,231) but U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south, suggesting that it is starting to run out of steam. Oil prices are off highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel, Eased uncertainty about the U.K. as the domestic situation seems more settled and preparations for exit talks can start sooner than previously expected, coupled with hopes of further global stimulus is helping to underpin sentiment, but as GDP bounces back Gilt futures and FTSE 100 have been underperforming, even as the more domestically oriented FTSE 250 is doing better. The European data calendar as final June inflation data from France, Spain and Italy, which should hold any surprises. Eurozone production data for May meanwhile is set to show a sizeable contraction, thus confirming again that overall growth slowed down in the second quarter of the year. Events include the BoE’s credit condition survey, as the MPC starts its two day meeting, with tomorrow’s announcement expected to bring a 25 bp rate cut.

US Data Reports: U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings dropped 345k in May to 5,500k, after rising 175k to 5,845k in April (revised from 5,788k). That left the rate at 3.7% from 3.9%. Hirings also declined 49k to 5,036k, a third consecutive monthly drop (hirings have fallen in four of the five months this year). The rate was steady at 3.5%. Quitters also dipped 14k to 2,895k after the 39k decline in April to 2,909k (revised from 2,912k) and the 7k slip in March. The rate was unchanged at 2.0%. The data are old, especially in light of the recent gyrations in employment. The data seem consistent with some of the weakening trend in the job market this year, though it’s not clear if that is more a function of the economy being near full employment, or an indication of a slowing in the overall economy. Note that Yellen is a fan of the quit rate, and looks for increases in that statistic to suggest a strengthening labor market. So the declines there in recent months may be another reason for her increasingly cautious outlook.

Discount Rate Hike preferred: Six Fed banks favored a discount rate hike by 25 basis points the Fed’s discount rate minutes revealed, with the vote taking place just ahead of the last meeting where rates were held steady following the May jobs miss and Brexit anticipation. A quartet of four had already requested a hike previously, including the KC, Richmond, Cleveland and SF Feds, and they were joined by Boston and St. Louis. The rationale: “expected strengthening in economic activity and their expectations for inflation to gradually move toward the 2% objective.” This shouldn’t come as a surprise to the bond market, which is already on a bearish tear anyway.

Fedspeak: Bullard: QE gives the Fed some “ammunition” in the event of another downturn, while his new view on rates is closer to what the market is pricing, with low probability of a rate increase. On productivity, he said the poor education system was not to blame in the 1990s, nor today, which could be at its root a demographic shift as older experienced workers retire. The labor force participation rate is continuing to fall for this reason as well. He said that yield curve flattening is not a sign of slowing growth but more likely a flight to safety after the Brexit vote, said the St. Louis Fed president. Talk of further U.S. stimulus is wrong and Fed calls for a better growth (fiscal) policy have been falling on deaf ears. He forecasts continued slowing in job growth in coming months as a normal development, while the ultimate impact of Brexit on the U.S. may be close to nil. Bullard continues to align himself more closely with swings in market sentiment.

Main Macro Events Today

US Import & Export Prices June trade price data is out today and should show import prices up 0.6% (median 0.5%) on the month while export prices grow by 0.3%. This compares to May figures which had import prices up 1.4% and export prices up 1.1%. After a long run of negative figures over the winter the rebound in oil prices is now helping to lift headlines.

BOC Outlook We expect no change in the policy rate, with the current 0.50% setting seen as unaltered in today’s announcement. Recent economic data suggest the Bank could inject more caution in its cautiously optimistic outlook. But lofty June housing starts were a timely reminder that the Bank did highlight housing in the May announcement. A repeat of that announcement’s emphasis on strong regional divergences in housing performance would contrast with a more cautious outlook on growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the robust U.S. jobs report for June suggests growth south of the border is chugging along, supportive of the Bank’s scenario for improving domestic growth in the second half.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #125  
Old 14-07-2016, 14:49
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 14th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th JULY 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses continuing to benefit from stimulus hopes, while mainland China saw profit taking amid concerns that the market is overbought. Hang Seng and ASX 200 posted modest gains and U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher. Oil prices are higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 46 per barrel. The focus in Europe will be on the BoE today, which is expected to cut rates by 25 bp today along with dovish guidance, as the bank is eying the fallout from the Brexit vote. The U.K. RICS house price balance, dropped to 10 from 19 highlighting that house prices will be one are that will feel the sting. The European calendar is pretty empty otherwise.

US Data Reports: Fed Beige Book reiterated the economy grew at a “modest” pace over the last six weeks (ending July 1), in line with expectations. The report, prepared by the St Louis Fed, had a slightly more upbeat tone versus recent Beige Books and was generally positive across broad areas of the economy. Consumer spending was generally positive, as was reported in June. However, there are some signs of softening. Labor market conditions remained stable, with employment growth modestly while wage pressures remained modest to moderate. Manufacturing was mixed but generally improved. Real estate continued to strengthen. The natural resources and energy sectors continued weak, however, damping the overall outlook. Price pressures remained slight. Though a tad more optimistic than recent reports, it won’t bring the FOMC off the sidelines at the July 26, 27 policy meeting.

Fedspeak: Kaplan is optimistic on the economy, expecting growth of about 2% after the disappointing 1.1% pace from Q1. Consumer spending should be solid this year, he added. Much of the recent erosion in the labor market he attributes to demographics, with part of it cyclical too. The participation rate is likely to decline further to below 61%, which creates headwinds for GDP, and suggested the only way to bounce back is through immigration. He looks for demand and supply in the oil market to get back into balance in Q1 2017, with prices continuing to firm. He added that the FOMC is very sensitive to the strength of the dollar. Kaplan becomes an FOMC next year.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Rate Announcement Our view matches the strong consensus view for the Old Lady to cut the repo rate by 25bp, which would take it to a record low of 0.25%. This would be the first change in the repo rate since March 2009 and would more than likely be accompanied by dovish guidance, leaving the door open to further cuts and to a restart of the QE programme. The BoE will continue to make cash available for liquidity injections into the banking system.

US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of July 9 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 265k (median 265k) after a big dip to 254k in the week of July 2nd. Overall, we expect claims to average 262k in July from 265k in June with nonfarm payrolls adding 180k in July after a 287k bounce in June.

U.S. PPI June PPI is also out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline increase with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This follows stronger figures in May which had the headline up 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. June trade price data has already been released and had import prices up 0.2% for the month with export prices up 0.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #126  
Old 15-07-2016, 10:48
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 15th July 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th JULY 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Hong Kong stocks reversing declines after Chinese data which showed better than expected new loan growth in the second quarter and a slightly better overall growth number. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are lower, however, and Bund and Gilt futures will have a chance to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. The BoE’s decision to leave rates steady for now may have been somewhat of a disappointment, but the MPC all but announced further easing for August, so there is room for a correction in yields. The European calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation for June, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.1% y/y. The headline rate is finally out of negative territory again, but still far below the ECB’s target and still leaving the central bank sufficient room to act again if necessary.

Strong Chinese Data: China’s GDP grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, slightly better than expected, matching the 6.7% pace in Q1. Separately, retail sales grew at a 10.6% y/y pace in June from the 10.0% clip in May. Industrial production improved to a 6.2% y/y pace in June from 6.0%. Overall, China’s growth rate stabilized in Q2, contrary to fears the economy would see a pronounced slowdown. All three key data points were ahead of expectations and has dampened expectations that further stimulus will be required. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, USDJPY spiked over 106, and AUDUSD moved up to 0.7675 before declining to 0.7630.

US Data Reports: All beat estimates with a firm round of June PPI gains and another tight initial claims reading through the July 4th holiday, hence confirming both the resilience in U.S. inflation and the tight labor market conditions signaled by the last round of payroll data with a likely July boost from this year’s diminished auto retooling effect. For PPI, we saw a 0.5% June headline rise with a 0.8% surge on the old SA basis, with a firm 0.4% core price rise. For claims, we expect a 6k drop in next week’s July BLS survey week reading back to the 248k cycle-low, following two consecutive tight readings of 254k that leave a lean 254k average thus far on the month.

Fedspeak: Esther George (Kansas City) current level of rates is too low and faster wage growth suggests the labor market is returning to normal, said the hawkish voter. That said, she will be looking at the impact of Brexit, which will be around for a while, along with the flight to quality when assessing any impact on the U.S. economy, seen likely to be modest. This should not come as a surprise, given her past dissents against accommodative policy. Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart endorsed a “cautious and patient” approach as appropriate given the uncertainty around Brexit and low inflation. Though “not a Lehman moment,” Brexit could weigh on business investment and create an income headwind for years to come, though he sees little immediate impact on the U.S. Lockhart still forecasts 2% U.S. growth and “very brisk” consumer spending. He sees the Fed meeting its policy objectives on inflation and employment in 2017, while already near full employment. Overall this is in line with his centrist reputation, as caution is balanced by optimism. No rush to hike, then, but perhaps he would be on board by year-end.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – June retail sales data is out on Friday and is expected to show that retail sales remained unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month while sales ex-autos rose 0.3% (median 0.4%). Figures for May had headline retail sales up 0.5% with ex-autos up 0.4%. There is downside risk to the release from weaker vehicle sales for the month and continued sluggish growth in chain store sales.

US CPI – June CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.3% headline (median 0.3%) with the core up 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows May figures that had the headline up 0.2% and the core up 0.2% as well. The June PPI was up 0.5% on the month while export prices rose by 0.8% and import prices by 0.2%.

BOE Carney Speech – Speaking in Toronto about climate change and the financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #127  
Old 02-08-2016, 11:39
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 2nd August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing slight gains, but the Nikkei closed down -1.47% and Australia’s ASX also down, despite a rate cut from the RBA, which lowered the cash rate by 25 bp to 1.50%. Negative leads then for European stock markets which already closed in the red yesterday, which should give Bund futures some chance to recover some of yesterday’s losses. The European calendar is relatively quiet today, with only the U.K. construction PMI, the Swiss manufacturing PMI and Eurozone PPI numbers.

RBA Cuts rates by 25bp to a record low 1.50%: As expected and already largely priced in by the markets, AUDUSD fell but then immediately recovered, currently trading at 0.7548. “Moderate” repeated a lot in the statement, concerning Chinese growth, local domestic growth including housing and labour market. Key problem remains stubbornly low inflation and is expected to “remain so for some time”. The RBA report their quarterly forecast update on Friday.

Japan: Consumer confidence has slipped again, from 42.0 to 41.3 for July. Finance Minister Aso and BOJ Governor Kuroda will meet later today to “confirm cooperation over policy”. Also due today is PM Abe fiscal stimulus announcement. USDJPY 102.14 in anticipation.

US Market Reports: Yesterday they revealed only a small July ISM drop to a still-firm 52.6 from a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, and it’s now likely that the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys will bounce to 52 in July from 50 in both May and June, as this aggregate reclaims the 52 eight-month high in March. Yet, we also saw a surprisingly weak round of Q2 construction spending figures that trimmed our Q3 GDP growth estimate to 2.6% from 2.8%, after a likely downward bump in Q2 growth to just 1.1% from 1.2%. We saw June construction drops in every major component except home improvement, after widespread downward bumps in both April and May.

Energy Action: WTI crude gapped to $40.20 lows after breaking Friday’s three-plus month base of $40.57. The contract now stands at levels last seen on April 20, when the printed base was $39.85. Fresh selling can be expected under there, with stop loss orders noted. Technically the key 50 and 200 DMA have been broken.

Main Macro Events Today

US Personal Income – June personal income data is out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with consumption up 0.3% (median 0.3%) as well. This follows respective May figures which had income up 0.2% on the month with consumption up 0.4%. Vehicle sales plunged in June but the employment report and aggregate income measure were both stronger, lending some upside risk to the release.

UK Construction PMI – More poor data expected a fall to 44.2 from 46.0 last time is anticipated. UK home ownership now at 35 year lows as demand out strips supply and generation rent continue to enter the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #128  
Old 04-08-2016, 15:35
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 4th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th August 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, following the rebound on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is returning as U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains. Positive leads then for European markets head of today’s BoE statement, with the Old Lady widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bp to a record low of 0.25%. The BoE also releases its updated inflation report, while the ECB publishes the latest economic bulletin. The calendar is quiet otherwise, with only a French bond sale and unemployment data for Greece.

US Data Reports: Yesterday revealed firm July reading for the ISM-NMI and ADP that signal upside risk for Friday’s July jobs report, though we still expect a 180k nonfarm payroll gain. The ISM-NMI slipped to a still-firm 55.5 after a June pop to a 7-month high of 56.5 from a 2-year low of 52.9 in May, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.2, after popping to an 8-month high of 56.3 from a 53.1 two-year low in May. For ADP, we saw a 179k July rise that beat our 170k private payroll estimate with a 180k total payroll increase, and this signals slight upside risk given the downward bias in “as reported” ADP. Yesterday’s vehicle sales figures added to the mix with a 6.7% July surge to a solid 17.8 mln rate, despite mounting growth concerns after last week’s lean GDP data.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Evans said “perhaps 1 rate increase this year is appropriate,” in comments to reporters from Chicago. He wants to make sure that the 2% inflation target is achieved, however, and worries that the risks of not getting there during this cycle could be long-lasting (noting the experience of Japan). He does not believe the 2% goal will be hit until 2018 and thinks it’s worthwhile for the FOMC to wait. The real economy is “doing quite well, especially given all the headwinds.. and uncertainty from abroad,” he added. He projects growth in the 1.0% to 1.75% area this year (we ask, that’s “quite good?”). The natural rate of unemployment is around 4.75%. He doubts the labor market will generate much inflationary pressure. Evans is a long-time dove, but is not a voter this year.

WTI crude: Quickly bounced back to session highs of $41.39 from $39.24 lows, with the rally coming on the back of higher gasoline prices. The much larger than expected draw in RBOB gasoline inventories resulted in that contract rallying overnight. It currently trades at $41.00; the ten day losing streak finally broken.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Preview – We expect a 25 bp chop of the repo rate, which would dislodge it from 0.5%, where it’s been since March 2009, and put it at a new record low of 0.25%. Other policy measures are possible, though we and most expect the QE program to left in a dormant state, and remain at GBP 375 bln of total of assets accumulated between 2009 and 2012. The BoE has already been injecting liquidity into the banking system. BoE MPC’s Weale, who is by reputation a relatively hawkish member, last week summed up the likely sentiment among fellow Committee members, admitting that the preliminary PMI report for July was “a lot worse than I had thought.”

BOE Press Conference – Mr Carney is normally unflappable and very firm and assertive in the 60 minute press conference. Todays could be particularly spikey if the Bank is seen not been as assertive as has been widely touted. Mr Carney has mentioned a number of times since the Brexit vote of “necessary adjustments”.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #129  
Old 05-08-2016, 13:09
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 5th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th August 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk appetite is back and the BoE revived hopes of ongoing stimulus measures not just in the U.K.. Stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia overnight, with Japanese markets the notable exception. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and while oil prices have fallen back slightly, the front end WTI future remains above USD 41 per barrel. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, as well as U.K. house price data from Halifax and Italian production data.

BOE Impact Summary: Gilt yields led a dive in sovereign European yields after the BoE over-delivered on easing measures at the conclusion of its August MPC meeting today. The FTSE 100 led consequential gains in European equity markets, while the pound tumbled by more than 1.5% versus the dollar as UK over U.S. yield differentials dove further into negative territory. UK corporate bond yields also dove sharply on news that a portion of new QE purchases will be in investment-grade corporate issues, which is a first for the BoE. The BoE said that it was responding an economic outlook which has “weakened markedly” as a consequence of the uncertainties caused by Brexit. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street cut the repo to a new record low of 0.25%, as widely expected, accompanying it with a less broadly anticipated recommencement of QE, by a further GBP 70 bln, with GBP 10 bln set aside for investment-grade corporate bonds. The BoE also surprised with the provision of GBP 100 bln for a “Term Funding Scheme,” which is a new tool for UK policy that will provide loans to banks provided that they are passed onto real-economy customers.

US Data Reports: Revealed modestly stronger than expected factory orders thanks to firmness in nondurable shipments and orders alongside minor orders and equipment tweaks in the durables data. Yet, weak inventories trimmed our Q2 GDP growth estimate to 1.0% from the 1.2% advance figure. We still peg Q3 GDP growth at 2.6%. We also saw a 3k initial claims rise to 269k in the final week of July, though we still have a lean July level overall thanks to this year’s limited auto retooling, and we still expect a 180k July nonfarm payroll rise with upside risk from tight claims, a producer sentiment updraft, a firm 179k ADP rise, a June-July vehicle assembly rebound led by a 9.6% June surge to a 12.5 mln clip before a likely further July climb, and a 6.4% July vehicle sales surge to a 17.8 mln rate.

ECB Outlook: The BoE’s comprehensive set of measures today has set the stage for a policy review from the ECB in September, when the central bank has its own updated set of staff projections. So far surveys don’t suggest that confidence has been hit by the Brexit vote, on the contrary and that in itself should already help to limit the fallout on investment and spending decisions. Still, the BoE’s move, which sent Sterling down, has clearly also increased pressure on Draghi to follow up with at least some tweaking of the QE program. Helicopter money clearly isn’t an issue for the ECB at the moment, but as supply constraints become evident in the bond buying spree, the push for a move away from the distribution of purchases according to the ECB’s capital key towards greater focus on outstanding debt, is getting stronger. Such a step would bring the ECB further away from the already weakened “no-bailout clause” enshrined in the Maastricht treaty, and likely spark additional challenges in Germany, but how long Weidmann and Schaeuble can stem the ever greater push for a mutualisation of risk and debt is anybody’s guess in this environment.

Fed Policy Outlook: The BoE’s easing has added to market expectations that the FOMC will remain sidedlined through the rest of the year. Implied Fed funds are now suggesting only about 18% risk for a tightening next month. That’s down about 10 percentage points from late July after the somewhat upbeat FOMC policy statement. Risk for a hike by year end has dipped to about 35% from 45% late last month too. The futures market, however, is also being impacted by the rally in Treasuries. The impending October 14 deadline on money market reforms, as well as the November 8 presidential election are key factors that will limit Fed action at the September 20, 21, and November 1, 2 FOMC meetings. Growth and inflation should have risen enough by the December 13, 14 policy meeting to enable the Fed to get back on the normalization path.

Main Macro Events Today

NFP Preview – Consensus is for a headline figure of 180k, it could, however, easily be over 200k again. Look for revisions to previous months’ data and for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.8%. Earnings growth has remained stubbornly low, expectation are again for 0.2%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #130  
Old 09-08-2016, 13:05
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 9th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by another rise in Japan (+0.69%), where volumes were low, and hopes of BoJ support and the bounce back in oil prices underpinned markets. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also trending higher and the front end WTI future is above highs, but remains above USD 42 per barrel. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected (see more below). This should continue to underpin risk appetite, together with hope of further central bank action not just from the BoE, but also the ECB, which has been put under pressure by the BoE’s bold action. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bond yields are all at record lows as the ECB heads for a policy review in September. Today’s European calendar still has German trade data as well as U.K. production data for June.

BOE McCafferty: “Bank rate can be cut further, closer to zero, and quantitative easing can be stepped up” should the UK economic outlook worsen. He believes a more gradual approach should be taken towards monetary policy as information of how the economy has reacted to the June 23 referendum is still very limited. McCafferty has previously opposed raising the target for quantitative easing government bond purchases. Cable broke the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the release of his comments.

Data Reports: Chinese inflation fell to 1.8% from 1.9% last time but better than the expected 1.7%, PPI figures were also a beat coming in at -1.7% from -2.6% last time.

UK July BRC retail sales unexpectedly rose 1.1% y/y in the like-for-like measure, with consumers wallets sharply contrasting to what consumers mouths were saying after the GfK consumer confidence figure for the same month fell by a series record in the wake of the late-June referendum on EU membership. The BRC noted that nothing materially changed for households in the month after the Brexit vote, while summer sales helped entice consumers to spend after a weather-affected 0.5% drop in sales in June. The BRC cautioned that “the big question for retailers is whether that success can be carried forward into full price sales.”

Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 21.6 bln in June, down from EUR 22.1 bln in the previous month, as exports rose a modest 0.3% m/m after falling -1.1% m/m in May, while imports rose 1.1% m/m. June data meant the sa trade surplus widened to EUR 67.8 bln the second quarter of the year from EUR 61.9 bln in the first quarter. This is nominal data of course, which also reflects exchange rate and oil price developments, but nevertheless, the numbers point to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the second quarter, which should help to compensate for the disappointing production drop.

Main Macro Events Today

US Productivity – The first release on Q2 productivity is out today and should reveal a 0.6% annualized pace for the headline after a -0.6% figure in Q1. Unit labour costs are expected to be 1.4% from 4.5% in Q1. The first release on Q2 GDP revealed a subdued headline of 1.2% but this was still stronger than the 0.8% pace in Q1.

US Wholesale Trade – June wholesale trade data is also out today and should show a 0.8% increase for headline sales while inventories remain unchanged on the month. This would follow respective May figures of 0.5% for sales and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio ticking down to 1.34 from 1.35 in May and 1.36 in the three months prior to that.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #131  
Old 30-08-2016, 14:03
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 30th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th August 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets recovered from yesterday’s drop and are posting broad gains, following on from a positive close on Wall Street and ahead of earnings data from Chinese banks. Japanese markets underperformed after yesterday’s rally and indices have closed flat (Nikkei 16,725) having swung between gains and losses despite a weaker Yen, as data showed retail sales and household spending declined. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while the FTSE 100 future is down on the day after yesterday’s holiday and following losses on other European markets yesterday. Oil prices are slightly higher with the front end WTI future holding slightly above USD 47 per barrel. The calendar is heating up today, with the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator, (see below) as well as preliminary Aug inflation data from Spain and Germany. The U.K. has BoE lending data and money supply figures.

The Yen still in focus:. Chief Japanese cabinet secretary Suga “says government watching markets closely and ready to respond appropriately”. The government is ready to take decisive steps against excessive fx moves. Government and the BOJ “as one” in defeating deflation. Reiterated the BOJ’s independence and confident that Abenomics will exert positive effects and that Japans banks will benefit in the long term. Markets are not convinced USDJPY struggling to hold rally over 102.10 following comments. Earlier data releases that although better than expected (unemployment at 21 year low of 3.0%) household spending is still very weak and disappointed. Even more stimulus to be expected which may be enough to flip USDJPY into buy the dip mode, from sell the rally seen for the past couple of weeks.

US Data Reports: Fed funds futures rallied a yesterday after crashing lower on Friday’s Fedspeak. The concurrent dip in implied rates is suggesting second thoughts about the likelihood of a September rate hike. The Sep contract now reflects about a 36% chance for a 25 bp hike next month, down from 42% at the close. Dec is still showing about a 59.9% risk for a tightening by the end of the year. Mondays PCE price data helped assuage fears for Fed action next month, as the inflation rate continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, there are potential headwinds to the August jobs report, especially from the auto sector, and a tame report would also lessen the potential for an imminent hike. We still believe December is the better bet.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone ESI So far, confidence indicators have been very mixed. The German ZEW recovered and preliminary PMIs came in higher than anticipated. But the latter also showed that the manufacturing sector is feeling the sting from the Brexit fallout and the stronger EUR and the German Ifo slumped. Against that that background there are expectations that there will be a slip in the August ESI economic confidence indicator to 104.4 from 104.6 in July, although that would still be a fairly robust level and like the PMIs still signals ongoing expansion.

German Aug HICP Inflation in the Eurozone is creeping higher and expectations for preliminary August German HICP to move up to 0.5% y/y from 0.4% y/y in July. However, headline rates, but also core inflation remain considerably below the ECB’s target of below but close to 2% and while the numbers at such don’t argue for further easing, they leave Draghi room to maneuver especially as the appreciation of the EUR against the Pound will add to downward pressures going ahead.

US Consumer Confidence August consumer confidence is out today and should reveal a slight headline decline to 97.0 from 97.3 in July and 97.4 in June. Other measures of confidence have been mixed so far in August with Michigan Sentiment falling to 89.8 from 90.0 in July but with an IBD/TIPP Poll increase to 48.4 from 45.5 in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #132  
Old 31-08-2016, 12:58
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 31st August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st August 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, the Japanese Nikkei 225 close up 0.97% at 16,887, with banks and oil producers leading gains. The Hang Seng is little changed and the ASX down, but mainland Chinese markets are moving higher. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are little changed and FTSE 100 futures are heading south. Oil prices are little changed on the day after the front end WTI future fell below USD 47 per barrel Tuesday amid firm U.S. confidence data as Fed’s Fischer repeated that rate hikes will be data dependent and that the economy is close to full employment. The European calendar has more August inflation data, with the overall Eurozone number now seen steady at 0.2% y/y, after weaker than expected German data yesterday. German unemployment is also seen steady in August, while the July Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.0% from 10.1%.

The USD takes centre stage: The dollar has held firm while the yen has continued to underperform. USDJPY rose for a fourth straight session, this time making a one-month high of 103.22. Yesterday the pair broke and closed above the 50-day moving average at 102.69, which now reverts as support. Most yen crosses have followed, with EURJPY also making a one-month peak, and AUDJPY a two-week high. The weaker yen has been tonic for Japanese stock markets. Increased odds for a September rate hike by the Fed, juxtaposed to the likelihood of further easing by the BoJ at its September 20th-21st policy meeting, have been underpinning USDJPY, which we expect to remain the case in the coming weeks, although Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be a key determiner. EURUSD, meanwhile, has remained heavy in the mid 1.11s, though holding above yesterday’s three-week low at 1.1132. Cable has also remained heavy, on net, with a bounce after an above-forecast reading of the August Gfk UK consumer confidence survey failing to sustain. At -7, this is the second lowest in over two years, while the UK Lloyds business confidence survey fell to a near five-year low of 16 in August, down from 29 in July.

US Data Reports: The U.S. consumer confidence pop to an 11-month high of 101.1 reversed the July drop to 96.7 from 97.4 to leave the measure still-below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015. Despite today’s consumer confidence upswing, the full array of confidence indicators continues to trend sideways in 2016. The Michigan sentiment index fell to 89.8 from 90.0, versus a 98.1 cycle-high last January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.4 in August from 45.5 in July but a similar 48.2 in June, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has risen slightly to a 43.6 average thus far in August from a 43.4 average in both June and July, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. Confidence faces an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce in the second half of 2016 as the inventory unwind and petro-hit to factories diminishes. Yet, confidence faces a political headwind from the highly negative and unsettling tone of the U.S. election campaigns.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer may be out on a hawkish limb on his own, speculates a Bloomberg article that is in line with the muted market reaction to his words overnight compared to the reaction in which he hijacked the Jackson Hole calm following Yellen’s speech Friday. Others such as Bullard and Lockhart have been more circumspect on the “hike or two” front this year, leading some analysts to wonder if Fischer is more of an outlier rather than a shadow Chairman. In January he concluded that four hikes this year were probable, which obviously has yet to be met. Of course, the August payrolls report could be the swing factor for or against a September hike, by Fischer’s own admission. The next round of Fedspeak will be from doves Rosengren and Evans, who will take part in a closed panel discussion from China ahead of the US open Wednesday, while moderate Kashkari talks about the role of the Fed board. This could slow the USD rise ahead of ADP’s today and NFP data on Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian GDP Real Q2 GDP, is expected to fall 1.8% after the 2.4% increase in Q1. The temporary halt to oil sands production and the impact on related services that was due to the Fort McMurray wildfire will factor in the Q2 GDP fall. Also, real exports plunged 19.9%, suggestive of a big drag from net exports. Real GDP is expected to rebound 4.0% in Q3 as shuttered production comes back on-line and rebuilding commences in the region.

Eurozone HICP After yesterday’s weaker than expected German HICP number we have lowered our forecast for the overall Eurozone rate to 0.2% y/y, which would leave it unchanged from July. The Spanish HICP rate rose markedly, to -0.3% y/y from -0.7% y/y, but the Belgian headline rate also ticked lower and the French reading, due early today, is also seen unchanged. Inflation rates are only very gradually moving higher and remain firmly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. With confidence indicators showing that especially the manufacturing sector is waking up to the risks of the Brexit scenario and the impact of drop of the Pound against the EUR, the data will add to the arguments of the doves ahead of the September ECB meeting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #133  
Old 01-09-2016, 13:00
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 1st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: European stock futures are higher, following on from a mixed session in Asia, where Japanese bourses managed to move higher in tandem with the Hang Seng after improvements in Japan and China manufacturing PMIs. Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. The U.S. jobs report tomorrow is moving into focus and investors and central bankers look to data for clues on the timing of a possible Fed hike. The ECB meanwhile seems eager to prevent any build up of easing speculation ahead of next week’s meeting and Draghi is still remarkably stumm as the block out period for central bank comments starts. Today’s European calendar focuses on PMI readings, which in the case of the final Eurozone reading is not expected to hold major surprises, while the U.K. number is hoped to lift slightly from the post Brexit slump in July.

Oil & Gold: Commodities under pressure – WTI crude has traded under the $45/bbl mark for the first time since August 15, touching $44.49 lows, as the combination of higher U.S. inventories, and a firm dollar continue to weigh. Bigger picture, an OPEC production freeze is not expected at the September meeting in Algiers, despite recent comments from Iraq’s oil minister, who said he would support a freeze. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. Gold dropped to new two-month lows of $1,304.10 from near $1,316.00, on a reported large sale (nominal $4 bln-plus), rumored to be linked to the cutting of a large long position. This may have been the result of the in-line ADP jobs data, and ahead of Friday’s official employment report. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices.

US Data Reports: Revealed an August Chicago PMI drop to 51.5 from 55.8 in July and a 17-month high of 56.8 in June, as these numbers unwind the mid-year auto-retooling boost, while ADP posted a firm 177k August rise after a big July boost to 194k from 179k. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June. The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our 185k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the 17.2 mln area in August after the July pop to a 17.8 mln rate.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise and needs more data before considering a rate hike, speaking on DJ News. Sounds like the moderate regional Fed president is still on the dovish side of the fence, though he’s not a voter in this rotation. These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.

Main Macro Events Today

US Manufacturing ISM August ISM is out today and is expected to decline slightly to 52.0 (median 52.0) from 52.6 in July and 53.2 in June. Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at 14:00 GMT.

US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to 269k (median 264k) from 261k in the week prior and 262k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at 263k from 260k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at 185k with a 4.8% unemployment rate for August.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #134  
Old 06-09-2016, 11:09
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 6th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with the ASX a notable exception as the Aussie strengthened following Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates steady. Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future climbed further above USD 45 per barrel, but gains are capped by concerns that stocks indices may be approaching overbought levels. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, despite the fact that U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected with the like-for-like reading down -0.9% y/y, against expectations for another marked rise. German factory orders disappointed and previous month revised down (see below) – EURUSD overnight lows 1.1140 currently 1.1150. The Eurozone also has the detailed reading of Q2 GDP, and elsewhere Switzerland releases Q2 GDP and August inflation data.

FX Summary: The dollar and euro traded softer against most other currencies, with markets taking Friday’s payrolls report as lowering the odds for the Fed to hike rates at its FOMC meeting later this month, while data left prospects for unchanged policy with dovish guidance at the ECB’s meeting this week. USD-JPY declined by over 0.5% to the 103s and EUR-JPY fell by 0.7%. Cable popped higher on the back of a record month-to-month rebound in the UK’s August services PMI, but gains failed to sustain as such an outcome had been well flagged by the stellar rebounds already seen in last week’s construction and manufacturing PMI reports. USD-CAD extended Friday’s post-U.S. jobs losses, with the Canadian dollar rallying concomitantly with oil prices. News that Russia and Saudi Arabia had signed an agreement to set up a “working group” to think of ways to curtail crude market volatility boosted crude. (see below)

Oil Update: Oil prices sprang higher on news of a Saudi-Russia agreement, signed on the sidelines of the G20 meetings, to set up a “working group” to discuss ideas about how to minimise market volatility. WTI crude was up nearly 5% at the $46.50 intraday peak, overnight it traded to $44.75 before recovering to $45.30. A lack of specifics about how output might be restricted apparently led to the rally fizzing out, and prices retreating. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Falih, said that that Iranian production has now reached pre-sanctions levels, suggesting that there is scope for Tehran to agree to a production freeze. The global supply glut remains and there will have to be some significant compromise in Algiers if the $50 is to be recovered.

German July manufacturing orders rose 0.2%: This was less than hoped and even with June revised marginally higher to -0.3% m/m from -0.4% m/m, the annual rate remained stuck in negative territory. Still, the -0.7% y/y reading is a clear improvement from the -3.0% y/y in the previous month, although looking at the dip in the manufacturing PMI, and the sharp downward revision to the German services PMI growth projections going ahead will have to be revised again and the weaker orders data will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB. Interestingly though, the breakdown showed a marked rebound in foreign orders inflow, which suggests Brexit and the weaker Pound are not to blame. Domestic orders meanwhile dropped -3.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Manufacturing PMI – 14:00 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 55.7 from 55.5. Last July’s spike to 59.6 set a new post-recession high. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed. The August Philly Fed index rose to 2.0 from -2.9, but the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 47.2 from 51.3.

NZD GDT Price Index – The fortnightly Global Dairy Trade Index is published and with a strong recovery last time to 12.7% sparking a rally in the NZD, today’s data will be followed closely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #135  
Old 07-09-2016, 08:45
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 7th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan closing down (-0.41% at 17,012) as the Yen strengthened on media reports casting doubt on the BoJ’s willingness to add further easing. The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are posting gains, pointing to opening gains, on stock markets, after yesterday’s broad move south in late trade. Bund and Gilt futures moved higher yesterday, with Bunds outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing going into tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The weak German production figures (see below) will only add to the Bund move. The European calendar has U.K. production data for July, seen falling -0.1%. The Swedish Riksbank meeting will be watched carefully as a precursor to tomorrow’s ECB meeting and the central bank are likely to keep the Repo rate steady at -0.5%.

FX Summary: The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a 12-day low at 101.19 as it extended losses from Friday’s peak at 104.32. The pair has breached below the 20-day moving average, at 101.55, which now reverts as resistance, ahead of 101.93-95 and the 50-day moving average at 102.66. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also fell, causing some indigestion on the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.4% loss, underperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, dollar softness saw EUR-USD and AUD-USD edge out respective 12-day highs at 1.1264 and 0.7688. Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.3445.

Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President John Williams: Low level of long-term yields is not just because of fed policy, a ‘reasonable person’ would expect US rates to rise gradually over time. Makes sense to raise rates “sooner rather than later” Inflation expected to rise to 2% in next two years and unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% over the next twelve months. Now is the time to consider new inflation target and “actively study new policy options”.

German July industrial production dropped -1.5%: A much more pronounced decline than even we expected and our forecast for a -0.4% m/m drop was already far below consensus, with Bloomberg predicting a 0.1% m/m rise. In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. June was revised up, but this didn’t prevent the annual rate to drop into negative territory in July. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation Report – 09:00 GMT – Governor Carney and members of the MPC testify before the UK Parliaments Treasury Committee (for approximately 2 hours). Expect some tough questioning from the members as some perceive the BOE’s actions inappropriate, this will be vigorously defended by the Governor and volatility for GBP pairs can be expected.

BOC Rate Statement – 14:00 GMT – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%. The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #136  
Old 12-09-2016, 11:27
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 12th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2016.




Main Macro Events Today

United States: This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2% or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number on Thursday unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK: The BoE meets on policy (announcing Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka. Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%. Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively due Monday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #137  
Old 19-09-2016, 14:00
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 19th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2016.




FX News Today

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.

United States: The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also due Thursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report on Friday.

Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.

Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.

Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.

UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.

China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.

Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
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HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #138  
Old 20-09-2016, 14:05
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 20th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with some bourses swinging between gains and losses, as traders hold back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and BoJ announcements. The Nikkei closed down -0.16%. The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.S. session as the oil prices dipped again and with the front end WTI futures falling further today and threatening to fall below USD 43 per barrel, risk appetite has faded. U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains, but the FTSE 100 is down, suggesting that European markets are poised for a correction in catch up trade. The European calendar is virtually empty.

RBA Minutes: “Rising AUD would complicate rebalancing of the economy”, following slow down on mining investment. The decline in the AUD since 2013 has “continued to support traded sector of economy”. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months. “Economy growing in line with potential” and current stance on policy “consistent with growth and inflation targets”. Looks like its neutral for longer and same tone as other “data dependent” central banks. AUDUSD 0.7540 and capped by the 20 DMA.

German PPI: the German PPI for August missed expectations coming in at -0.1% (0.0% expected). Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. EURUSD remains in tight overnight range pivoting around 1.1170.

U.S. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 65 in September: This was up 6 points from 59 in August (revised down from 60 previously). It’s the highest since last October, which was also a 65 print, and was 61 a year ago. The 2016 range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34 over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from 66. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from 44. All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from 68.

FX Update: All quiet on the forex front, with the main currency pairings having posted ultra narrow ranges as market participants remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions. Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing, while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its -0.1% reserve deposit rate further into negative territory while skewing QQE purchases toward the shorter and middle parts of the maturity spectrum to facilitate curve steepening, with the aim of mitigating the negative effects the program has had on financial intermediation. 60% of respondents to a Reuters expected the BoJ to move this week, though there was some discord among those anticipating action in the extent of what the central bank will do. With the costs and benefits of the three-year old QQE program fading, many expect a shift in policy focus to interest rates and NIRP. How markets react is a tough call, though we think the risks for USD-JPY are to the downside. Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.

Main Macro Events Today

BOJ Outlook – The two day meeting started earlier today and the announcement and press conference are scheduled for 03:00 GMT on Wednesday. There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme.

FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting starts later with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively on Wednesday. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #139  
Old 21-09-2016, 13:30
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 21st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20st September 2016.




FX News Today

The BoJ: Announced a policy framework overhaul, which it called “QQE with yield curve control.” It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. The BoJ said the scale of the QQE program remained on hold, and that overall asset purchases would remain “more or less in line with the current pace,” although the maturity target has been abolished. The timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target has been set, quite simply, as “the earliest possible time.” Aside from detailing the new framework, the BoJ also provided an assessment of the failure to have pushed CPI to 2%, blaming “exogenous factors,” including the fall in oil prices, sluggish global demand and financial market volatility. On the economy, the BoJ said recovery “is likely to remain slow.” The yen dove nearly 1% as markets digested the new framework see below.

FX Update: USDJPY is registering a near 1% gain as the London interbank take to their desks. After initially dipping as the BoJ refrain from extending its NIRP policy, the pair rallied as the yen fell across-the-board as markets digested an overhaul in the BoJ’s policy framework. It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. USD-JPY clocked an eight-day high at 102.78. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also vaulted higher. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. Spill over dollar strength following the BoJ’s announcement drove EUR-USD to a three-week low at 1.1123.

BoC’s Poloz said it is unclear if the bank will cut its forecast in October, responding to a question in his recently started Q&A with the press. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained. Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt. But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. As for the renewal of the 2% inflation targeting mandate that is due in upcoming weeks, he said it is the Finance Department’s decision to make. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.

European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. The Bank said it is shifting to a greater focus on the shape of the yield curve saying that it will increase bond purchases “more of less in line with the current pace” of 80 trillion yen per year. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets. U.S. and U.K. futures are also higher ahead of the Fed decision, which is likely to see policy unchanged leaving the focus on the forward guidance. Oil prices are also higher, although the front end WTI future is down from earlier highs of over USD 45 per barrel at currently USD 44.89. European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U.K. public finance data. ECB’s Praet meanwhile stressed again this morning that the central bank will maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting started yesterday with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively later today. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

RBNZ – Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2.00% level, still by far the the highest in the G10 countries.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #140  
Old 22-09-2016, 11:58
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 22nd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2016.




FX News Today

The FOMC: No change and no surprise the result was a bit of a tangled web of contradictions. The Fed said the case for a rate hike had strengthened, though policymakers for the “time being” decided to hold off and allow the economy “some room to run.” Yet there were three dissents (Mester, George and Rosengren) in favour of an immediate hike, indicating acrimony beneath the surface as on the other side three members see the possibility of no rate increase this year. The Fed’s own economic and policy projections were mostly downgraded, seemingly at odds with their hair-trigger outlook. Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November. In her press conference MRs Yellen maintained that all meetings were “live” and the move to keep interest rates on hold “does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy” but was due to a slow uptake of labour-market slack and inflation below the 2% target. CMEGroup’s federal funds futures now shows a 60% chance of a rate rise in December.

RBNZ: Also no change and suggested a decline in the NZD is needed, monetary policy to remain accommodative and “further easing will be required”. Weak global growth and low rates continues to put upward pressure on NZD and makes it difficult for the RBNZ to reach its 2% inflation target. Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration (which is also keeping earnings growth down) tourism and construction. House price inflation remains “excessive”. Outlook for the key Dairy season remains “uncertain”. NZDUSD rose to 0.7370 before falling back to 0.7330.

FX Update: USDJPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing “QQE with yield curve control” and an “inflation-overshooting commitment,” but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged — there was no actually increase in stimulus. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in 2017 was reduced relative to guidance given in June. USDJPY has duly reacted with a downward shift. The August-16 low at 99.54 provides the next downside target, and below here is the post-Brexit vote low at 98.98. Japanese policymakers won’t be liking the appreciation of the yen, so we can expect more rhetorical warnings, but it will hard for them to justify actual interventions while yield differentials are moving in favour of further USDJPY declines. Outside the case of USDJPY, the dollar is broadly lower, showing about an average 0.3% decline versus the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar currently. GBPUSD formed a tweezer bottom on last night’s daily candle.

European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied (Japan was closed for a holiday), following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday. The FOMC said the case for a hike “has strengthened”, but decided to stay put for the time being, FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, but U.S. stock futures are already in the red again. Bund futures managed to recover losses in after hour trade and in the wake of the Fed decision and could see some early gains, after yesterday’s sell off, although stock moves and the realization that neither BoJ nor ECB are eager to delve further into negative interest rate territory, should keep a lid on gains. Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. Oil prices are higher, with the front end WTI future currently trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U.K’s CBI industrial Trends survey and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers in the afternoon. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin, although the articles have already been published in advance this week so there shouldn’t be big surprises.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless claims – Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at 260k (median 262k), steady from last week and just above 259k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average 260k in September from 262k in August and 260k in July. Expectations for nonfarm payrolls to be up 170k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4.9%.

Draghi and Carney speeches – Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. First up is President Draghi at 13:00 GMT at the ESRB in Frankfurt and later Governor Carney (17:00 GMT) in Berlin.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #141  
Old 23-09-2016, 15:00
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 23rd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd September 2016.




FX News Today

US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.5% July rise in the FHFA home price index. The 0.9% August existing home sales drop to a 5.33 mln rate left a Q3 trimming of Q2 gains, though the median price decline to $240,200 was largely seasonal and left that figure close to the $247,600 all-time high in June. The 0.2% August leading indicators drop tracked estimates, with weakness that reflects declines in the factory sensitive sectors. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to 252k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the 42-year low of 248k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the 170k September nonfarm payroll estimate.

U.S. VIX equity volatility slumped 10%: It fell below 12.0 after the Fed on Wednesday and that’s put the VIX within a hair of 11.65 September lows compared to highs of 20.51 earlier in the month when the ECB held rates pat rather than easing again as expected (nothing to see here, no correlation). Year lows of 11.02 appear to be within reach, while life lows of 8.2 lie below as the markets continue to disbelieve the “cry wolf” hawkish Fedspeak, though 3 dissenters would suggest the Fed is very close to a second hike. Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the 26.72 Brexit high back on the radar. Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2,119.1 in September, the S&P 500 looks poised to take another stab at 2,193.81 life highs set on August 15, barring a swing in the polls ahead of November elections.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down (Nikkei closed -0.32%) . Australia’s ASX outperformed, as mining and energy stocks and especially gold led the way. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are also slightly in the red and oil prices are down from highs of over USD 46 per barrel. Consolidation after yesterday/s celebration of the Fed’s steady hand policy, seems to be the order of the day, but while European stocks are likely to see some correction investors seem to be breathing more easily now. The 10-year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat. The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The final reading for French Q2 GDP meanwhile is not expected to hold any surprise.

FX Update: The dollar has firmer back some following yesterday’s underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EURUSD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday’s low in making 1.3030. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance. USDJPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 earlier in Tokyo, and has since ebbed back to the 100.90 area. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also softer. Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – After the mixed August numbers, expectations are for a stabilization in September with only a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 51.7 in the previous month, which should partly be compensated by the expected uptick in the services reading to 52.9 from 52.8 and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8, versus 52.9 in August.

Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales – July Retail Sales are expected to pick up from -0.1% reading in June to 0.1% (MoM) whilst CPI YoY for August is also expected to tick up to 1.4% from 1.3%. The MoM figure should rise to 0.1% for August from -0.2% in July.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #142  
Old 27-09-2016, 09:48
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 27th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.S. presidential debate and judged Clinton the winner. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off where concerns about Deutsche Bank AG weighed on financial stocks in Europe and a drop in yields hit U.S. banks. Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD 1341 yesterday before settling to 1334. The European calendar has German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as EMU M3 money supply growth and the U.K.’s CBI distributive trade survey.

FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump’s protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. had ever signed) doesn’t sit too well with markets. The peso rallied by over 1.5%, driving USDMXN to an eight-day lows below 19.50. USDCAD, meanwhile, dove back under 1.3200 as the Canadian dollar rallied, having earlier logged a six-month peak at 1.3275. USDJPY lifted as stocks rebounded in Asia, with the pair recouping toward 101.00 after earlier logging a one-month low at 100.08. EURUSD remained mired in a narrow range in the mid 1.12s.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan would have been comfortable with a September hike, he said in comments at an energy sector event. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in 2017. He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. He wants to wait to see how the next three months unfold and added he’ll be hawkish at times, and dovish at times. Fed governor Tarullo would like a tougher capital plan for large U.S. banks, while affording a little relief for smaller lenders, estimating that the largest banks would likely hold “significantly more” capital under forthcoming “stress test” reforms from the Fed.

ECB’s Draghi: Monetary policy has been very effective, adding that the policy effect is not yet “exhausted”, while stressing again that low interest rates are a symptom of low growth. At the same time, Draghi said the ECB never discussed monetary financing, although of course the German legal challenges against some of Draghi’s emergency measures show that not everyone shares the same definition of that.

US Data Reports: Revealed a 7.6% new home sales drop to a still-solid 609k August rate that trimmed the hefty July pop to an upwardly-revised 659k (was 654k) expansion-high to leave a respectable sales path into Q3. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well. We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to -3.7 in September from -6.2, leaving both an upward trend and a 21st consecutive reading in negative territory. The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable 51.2 from 50.7 in August.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence – September consumer confidence is out later and should reveal a headline decline to 98.0 from 101.1 in August which is still above July’s 96.7. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for September was tepid with the headline holding steady at 89.8 from August and the IBD/TIPP Poll declined to 46.7 from 48.4 in August.

Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speech – Mr Fischer is due to give a speech in Washington with the whimsical title “Why Study Economics”. Any departures from script are unlikely but following Jackson Hole anything is possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #143  
Old 28-09-2016, 10:36
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 28th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are heading south, led by a slide in Japanese markets, (Nikkei closed down -1.31%) as more than half the companies on the benchmark traded without the right to the next dividend, a biannual event in Japan that tends to weigh on markets. Elsewhere financials remained under pressure as concerns over Deutsche Bank AG continue to weigh on the sector. Oil prices are volatile and the front end WTI future has fallen below USD 45 per barrel, as investors scale back hopes of an agreement on output limits at the OPEC meeting. Gold suffered at decline to $1325 from over $1338. U.S. stock futures are down, but the FTSE 100 future is managing slight gains. The European calendar remains relatively quiet, German consumer confidence has already reported and missed expectations (10.2) coming in at 10.0. EURUSD trades at 1.1208.

Oil headlines from Algeria: No agreement to cap or freeze oil output as early as today, but that’s not ruled out for subsequent meetings, largely in line with earlier reports. The Saudis said the gap among OPEC countries is narrowing and Russia will meet with them again in October. Iran, Libya and Nigeria should be allowed to produce at maximum levels and once that’s agreed a freeze agreement consensus could be reached by November. Meanwhile the Saudis are investing in spare capacity and can survive at current oil price levels, and don’t see the need for a significant adjustment or cut, while Russia will maintain flat supply in the meantime.

Fedspeak: As expected no surprises from Fed’s VC Fischer from his speech, however, in the following Q&A session he said that he doesn’t want to raise rates too much, noting that 3% wage gains would be consistent with a “reasonable” rate of inflation and we’re beginning to see the fruits of a high pressure labor market. This is consistent with Fischer’s interest in being preemptive on rate hikes, though Brexit and mixed data has hijacked the tightening agenda since he first wanted to do so.

US Data Reports: Revealed a surprising September consumer confidence surge to a 104.1 cycle-high led by the present situation index that bucked weak September readings for other confidence surveys, alongside a small September rise in the Richmond Fed index to a still weak -8 from -11 in August. We saw a slightly larger ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rise to 50.8 from a 3-year low of 49.7, with gains in all the components except inventories and employment, but with a particularly large employment index drop to a -13 new expansion-low from 7. We appear to be on the cusp of an inventory reversal that will lift GDP growth, though the rise will likely not be captured until Q4.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable Goods – August durable goods orders expected to fall 1.4%, Shipments expected at -0.5%. Inventories expected unchanged. Durable goods ex- transport expected to fall -0.4%.

Yellen testifies and Draghi speaks – Following Mr Fischer yesterday, today his boss Mrs Yellen testifies in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation. Later Mr Draghi speaks in the German Bundestag with his thoughts on the current developments in the Euro area.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #144  
Old 29-09-2016, 13:42
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 29th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Energy stocks pushed up Asian markets after OPEC agreed to cut oil production and limit daily output to 32.5-33 million barrels. The front end WTI future is currently trading above USD 47 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also celebrating the deal, which will see European stocks extending yesterday’s gains and is likely to weigh on bond futures. The European data calendar is very busy today, with preliminary inflation data for September for Spain and Germany, as well as German unemployment and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator. The U.K. has BoE mortgage approvals, consumer credit and money supply data.

Oil headlines from Algeria: Oil prices surged following the surprise OPEC agreement on production cuts. USOil rallied 5% to $47.46 and UK Oil was up to highs over $49.00. The production cut was between 240k and 740k barrels per day, which will limit supply to between 32.5 mln and 33 mln barrels per day. It was a surprise because Saudi Arabia had dampened market expectations for a deal ahead of the meeting in Algiers. This is the first coordinated action to lift crude prices in eight years, and marks a shift in strategy of the group to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as shale field drillers. Markets will be paying close attention to the implementation of the production cut, particularly given the lack of information about how much each producer will curtail output. OPEC next meets officially at the end of November.

ECB’s Draghi: ECB countered threat of new “great depression”. Defending the ECB’s policies to German parliamentarians Draghi said after a visit to the lower house that other policies must contribute much more decisively while the ECB must allow its measures to develop for full impact. The central bank president stressed that the ECB doesn’t see overheating in the Eurozone or German economies although he admitted that low rates for long may risk asset-overvaluation risk and that ECB policy is not the main factor in low bank profitability.

Fedspeak: Governor Yellen: The rate hike outlook said that in the event of economic overheating the Fed is prepared to adjust policy accordingly, as the jobless rate could fall farther and continued job creation at the current pace could lead to overheating. There’s no meaningful upward pressure on inflation, however, and she’s pleasantly surprised that the jobless rate has not fallen of late and there’s “no fixed time table for interest rate moves”. Later Loretta Mester noted the risks in waiting too long to raise rates and worried that further delays may force a steeper trajectory in the future. She explained her dissent at the September 20, 21 FOMC, saying the underlying fundamentals supporting the economy are sound, which has been “demonstrated by the resiliency it has shown through a numbers of bumps along the road of expansion.” Some of those bumps are, the gyrations in the financial markets at the start of the year, the slowing in China, economic weakness in Europe, the large appreciation in the dollar between mid 2014 and the start of 2016, and the uncertainties over Brexit. And the economy is expected to continue to show strength too. She reiterated the maxim that monetary policy works with a lag, so policy actions need to be taken before the goals are met. Earlier Neel Kashkari had stated just how much slack remains in the labor market is the critical question, while the economy should have continued moderate growth of about 2%, while global investors near-term see Treasuries as a safe haven. While the U.S. long-term needs to get its fiscal house in order, it’s not appropriate for the Fed to hold back in order to force the hand of fiscal authorities. Kashkari also found it “alarming” that issues at Wells Fargo could have been going on for years and no one was aware. Finally, Charles Evans reiterated the likelihood that rates remain lower for longer, in his prepared remarks to community bankers. Policy will be normalized at a very gradual pace. The low rate scenario means the Fed will have less room to respond to downside shocks. The dovishly inclined Evans is not a voter this year but rotates into that position in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US GDP – The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal an upward revision for the headline to 1.5% from 1.1% in the second release, 1.2% in the first release and 0.8% in Q1 of this year. Among the revisions there is likely to be upward revisions for construction of $8 bln, consumption up $4 bln, net exports up $4 bln and intellectual property up $2 bln. Looking ahead to Q3, the headline could be stronger at 2.2%.

Governor Yellen – Following her testimony in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation yesterday, the FED chair is in Kanas City speaking at the Minority Bankers Forum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #145  
Old 30-09-2016, 11:03
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 30th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th September 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: The rally on stock markets didn’t last long and while most European markets still managed to close with gains yesterday, Deutsche Bank (down 7% at one point yesterday) concerns dragged the DAX lower and are also overshadowing markets elsewhere. Wall Street closed with losses and in Asia, lenders were also under pressure, with Nikkei and Hang Seng down more than 1.4% and only mainland Chinese markets managing to carve out gains. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down as the pressure on Deutsche Bank is building with the sell off in shares of course only adding to the problem and creating a viscous circle. European markets have opened down 1%. Oil prices meanwhile are down on the day, but remain above USD 47 per barrel following the OPEC deal and Gold traded under USD 1316 before recovering to $1323. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence came in better than expected and improved to -1 to -7 in the previous month. In a speech by Mr. Kuroda to the Japanese parliament he explained that the BOJ are internally debating exit strategy from ultra-easy policy but speaking specifically about those means too hastily could cause confusion in markets. The calendar also has German retail sales at the start of the session, French consumer spending and the final reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as Eurozone unemployment. The focus, however, will likely be on Eurozone inflation data for September, which is expected to tick higher on base effects.

German retail sales dropped -0.4% m/m in August, while July was revised markedly down to 0.5% m/m from 1.7% m/m reported initially. The annual rate still jumped to 3.7% y/y after falling in July. The three months trend rate also improved. Consumer confidence remains at very high levels and the Ifo index also reported an rise in retail sentiment, but official retail sales, while highly volatile and subject to heavy revisions, only cover part of overall consumption, and the data have only limited bearing for overall consumption trends, which still look solid.

ECBspeak: Visco: QE could last beyond March 2017. The Italian central bank governor hinted that the QE program could be extended beyond the current timeframe to impact inflation and that the inflation may have to be temporarily overshot. At the same time he stressed that QE makes reforms easier not harder and that in Italy, high debt not EU rules are is weighing on budget policies. It is true of course that the ECB’s low interest rate policy is giving governments more room to manoeuvre and thus should make it easier to implement reforms, at the same time though, the low rates also gloss over existing problems and make it a less pressing need for governments to reduce deficits and debt, as the ECB’s program is keeping rates low and reduces market pressure on governments.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari saw no alarm bells that a recession is imminent and no urgency in raising rates with inflation low, but by the same token waiting too long on raising rates was less of a risk that hiking too soon. In any case, if inflation does rise, the Fed has all the tools it needs to bottle it up. He also said that the Fed is not out of ammunition if the economy is hit by recession and concurred that politics is not factoring in at all to Fed decisions. About par from moderate course from Kashkari.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU September Inflation – EMU Sep HICP inflation expected to rise to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y in the previous month, with less negative base effects from energy prices the main driving factor behind the expected uptick. This was already reflected in German and Spanish numbers yesterday but while base effects are lifting the annual rate, readings still remain far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So while the risk of a deflationary spiral is becoming ever more remote, the data will do little to stop the ECB from continuing with its current expansionary policy stance.

Canada July GDP – Expected to grow 0.3% in July after the 0.6% surge in June that followed the 0.6% plunge in May. Mining, oil and gas production is on track to add to GDP growth, and this could provide an upside surprise. While energy exports values slipped 0.8% in July, prices contracted as the IPPI for energy and petroleum products fell 3.5% m/m. Meanwhile, the manufacturing report’s 2.5% gain in petro and coal production was due to higher volumes at several refineries. The separate real Q3 GDP measure is seen rebounding 3.2% in Q3 (q/q, saar) after the 1.6% drop in Q2.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #146  
Old 03-10-2016, 14:13
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 3rd October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2016.




FX News Today

United States: The calendar highlighted by September nonfarm payrolls, (Friday) which are expected to increase by 170k, with a 160k private payroll gain. Forecast risk is seen as downward, however, as weaker claims and producer sentiment could weigh on the headline. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.9% since June. The workweek is expected to tick up to 34.4 from 34.3 last month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.6% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.2% for the month following a 0.1. Also on tap are several other releases worthy of consideration, including ISM manufacturing (Monday), which may bubble back over the 50 boom-bust line in September, having stumbled hard to 49.4 in August. Construction spending may rise 0.4% in August from unchanged in July. September vehicle sales are expected to grow 0.5% to a 17.0 mln pace, up from August, but down from the 17.8 mln 2016 peaks in January and July. The schedule resumes with MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday) and the ADP employment survey forecast to post a 160k print for September vs 177k. The August trade balance may widen to -$43.4 bln vs -$39.5 bln and the ISM non-manufacturing index is set to rise to 53.5 in September vs 51.4. Factory goods orders dip 0.3% in August vs a 1.9% July gain. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 6k to 260k (Thursday) for the October 1 week. Along with employment, wholesale trade and consumer credit (Friday) will round out the week.

Fedspeak resumes with Lacker (hawk) on the economic outlook (Tuesday), followed by Evans (dove) on current economic events and policy. Kashkari (moderate) introduces a child development program (Thursday) followed by Lacker (again) meeting with students followed by a speech on Fed governance. Fed VC Fischer (Friday) speaks on the economy and regulation, while Mester (hawk) discusses “Fed Communications” . Fed Governor Brainard (dove) takes part in an IIF panel on “Blockchain Technology”.

Canada: The calendar picks-up this week, with several heavy hitters due out that will provide further indications of how the economy fared after oil sands production returned to normal in July. The August trade report (Wednesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in July. A 1.0% increase in exports is anticipated following the 3.4% surge in July. Employment (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k gain in September jobs following the 26.2k bounce in August. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0% in September. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is projected to reveal an improvement in the overall outlook, but with a still ample reserve of caution among resource sector firms and related businesses. Q2. Building permit values (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% m/m in August after the 0.8% gain in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) rounds out the week, with the index expected to improve to 55.0 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in August.

Europe: Data releases include the final reading of September PMIs with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI expected to be confirmed at 52.6. and the Services reading at 52.1, which should leave the composite at 52.6, unchanged from the preliminary number. The highlight though will be German manufacturing orders for August (Thursday) where we are looking for a rise of 0.5%, after the modest 0.2% m/m expansion in July. July Ifo numbers surprised on the upside and the manufacturing PMI also rebounded, so that the chances are orders picked up again in August. Industrial production (Friday) should show at least a partial rebound from the -1.5% m/m slump in July and rise 0.8% m/m (med 0.9%). The recovery is limping ahead and so far the labor market has remained on an improving trend and against that background consumption should remain underpinned, but even if Eurozone retail sales (Wednesday) are likely to have dropped -0.3% m/m, as a partial correction from the 1.1% m/m gain in July. ECBspeak comes from Draghi, Coeure and Nowotny among others, with Coeure and Draghi attending the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington at the end of the week.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the PMI reports for September, along with production data for August, which will increase the body of post-Brexit vote hard data. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) is expected to dip to 52.1 after surging to 53.3 in August. The construction PMI is seen nearly steady at 49.0, which would be a fractional decline from August’s 49.2. The services PMI is expected to ebb to 52.0 from 52.9. While the PMIs are thus seen lower, the overall picture would be of a better than most feared performance of the UK economy following the vote to leave the EU.

China: On holiday all week, but has September services PMI (Friday), along with September foreign direct investment, which is seen slowing to a 4.0% y/y versus the 5.7% reading in August.

Japan: September consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely fell to 41.0 from 42.0. September services PMI is due Wednesday, and 1st 20-day September trade data on tap Friday.

Australia: Te Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent participates in a panel in Melbourne (Wednesday). Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in August after the 11.3% gain in July. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.4% m/m in August following the flat reading in July. The trade deficit is projected to widen to -A$2.5 bln in August from -A$2.4 bln in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #147  
Old 05-10-2016, 08:36
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 05th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th October 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese bourses remaining underpinned by a weaker Yen, which is lifting exporters. Hong Kong stocks also extended their rally, in tandem with mainland Chinese markets, amid hopes that China’s economy is stabilising. Elsewhere, however, markets are slightly in the red, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, despite a pick up in oil prices that saw the front end WTI future rising above USD 49 per barrel. Reports that the ECB council is favouring a tapering of QE purchases, if and when stimulus measures come to an end has spooked markets late yesterday and saw Bund futures dropping sharply, while the EUR picked up and gold fell over 3.3% The reports also said QE could still be extended at current levels beyond the current timeframe, but the reaction highlights how reliant markets still are on central bank support and with the EUR rising above 1.12 against the USD again, Eurozone bond and stock markets are likely to feel the pressure at the open. The ongoing weakness of the pound meanwhile will continue to put a floor under the FTSE 100. The calendar today has the final reading of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, expected to be confirmed at 52.1 while the U.K. services PMI is seen falling to 52.0 from 52.9 in August.

ECB said to be nearing a consensus that QE should be tapered gradually before the program ends, according to sources familiar with policymaker deliberations today at the interim Governing Council meeting (cited by newswires). One suggestion was to trim purchases by EUR10 bln per month. When such reductions will begin will depend on the economic outlook. And it was also noted that QE, at the current EUR80 bln pace per month, could be extended beyond the March 2017. The ECB also extended its economic projection horizon by 1 year. Meanwhile, in an emailed statement from the ECB, it was noted the Governing Council “has not discussed these topics.”

FX Update: The euro has remained bid following reports that the ECB is considering tapering its QE program. EURUSD lifted back toward the high seen yesterday after the London close, at 1.1218, while EURJPY rallied to fresh three-week high territory above 115.00. USDJPY also managed to clock a new three-week high, at 102.99, with the dollar itself is being underpinned after Fed’s Lacker said a rate hike is needed to head off a likely increase in inflation. (see more below) The yen itself has remained the short of choice in forex markets with the BoJ still seen on course to expand monetary policy, and with stock markets holding up, although mixed in Asia today. Focus is shifting to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for September, as this will have potential to make or break prospects for Fed tightening by as soon as year-end.

Fedspeak: Lacker: said he would have dissented in September because interest rates “need to rise,” a comment that has sparked some ire on Twitter, though note he’s a non-voter and, thus, was denied the opportunity. He agrees that gradual hikes are the prescription, but warns that the median view of 2 hikes in 2017 is “awfully gradual.” Meanwhile, the IMF’s chief economist says there’s no great danger of the U.S. economy overheating. Yields jumped on earlier hawkish headlines from Lacker, on the heels of those of long time hawk Loretta Mester, yesterday.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Manufacturing ISM – September service sector producer sentiment is out later expectations are for a headline increase to 523 from 51.4 in August. Despite headline improvements in many measures of producer sentiment for the month we saw weaker component data due to an auto sector slowdown and the ongoing inventory unwind which could pose some risk to the release.
US Trade Deficit – August trade data is out today and is expected to reveal a 0.5% contraction for the deficit to -$39.3 bln from -$39.5 bln in July. The release should have exports up 0.6% on the month following a 1.9% increase in July and exports up 0.4% on the month following a 0.8% decline in July. The advance trade report for August revealed a -$58.4 bln deficit for goods from -$58.8 bln in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #148  
Old 06-10-2016, 10:24
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 6th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th October 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, (Nikkei closed up 0.47% 16,899) with the recent pick up in oil prices is adding support and the front end WTI future may be down slightly on the day, but remains comfortably above USD 49 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are down as the dollar rises, but the FTSE 100 future is up, with the ongoing slide in the pound helping to underpin foreign demand. ECB tapering talk meanwhile is likely to continue to push up yields and weigh on Eurozone stock markets. Against this background the release of the ECB’s account of the last policy meeting will be watched carefully. The European calendar also has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session. Switzerland releases inflation data as well as the KoF autumn economic forecast and the U.K. has labour cost data.

FX Update: The main dollar pairings have eked out narrow ranges so far today. EURUSD has remained in a narrow orbit of 1.1200, while the yen’s recent spell of underperformance, which has been in play since mid last week following the BoJ’s announcement of a new monetary policy framework, has come to a pause today. USDJPY and EURJPY have so far remained under their respective one-month highs seen yesterday at 103.67 and 116.25. The Australian dollar has traded softer despite a narrower than expected Australian trade deficit in August, driven by firmer exports and flat imports, which, following strong figures on retail sales and building approvals earlier in the week, has added to signs that Q3 GDP will be better than previously thought. Higher commodity prices are also pointing to further declines in the deficit in the months September and October. Market focus has squared on tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report release, however, as it carries make or break potential for prospects of a Fed rate hike before year-end. Following yesterday’s U.S. data releases, Fed funds futures were showing a probability for a December hike of just over 60%.

US Data Reports: Revealed a modest setback in the August trade deficit to a $40.7 bln gap that can be attributed to a one-off service import boost from the Brazilian Olympics, alongside small upside surprises across the orders, shipments, inventory and equipment data in the August factory goods report, and a hefty September ISM-NMI pop to an 11-month high of 57.1. We also saw a restrained 154k September ADP rise. The mix left the Q3 GDP estimate at 2.5%, though with offsetting component tweaks in trade, equipment spending and inventories, alongside an unchanged 170-5k September payroll estimate for Friday with divergent signals from an ISM-NMI job index pop to 1-year high of 57.2 alongside a lean ADP reading.

Fedspeak: Lacker: said there’s a strong case to increase rates more rapidly, in his comments at Marshall University. That is in line with his remarks on Tuesday on The Economic Outlook, October 2016, and is consistent with what he, and other Fed officials, including Chair Yellen, have indicated since late August. He believes the factors that have limited inflationary pressures have largely played out, with the result that prices are moving toward the Fed’s goal. Meanwhile, he noted that the aggressive use of monetary policy to stimulate the economy can back-fire, in terms of stoking inflation, from whence he outlined the benefits and critical role of a pre-emptive policy approach. Lacker is not a voter this year or in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless Claims – Expected to creep up to 256K this week from 254k last week.

ECB MPM minutes – Due to be released at 11:30 GMT. Details of the latest Governing Boards meeting, with factors that influence economic conditions and the factors impacting their interest rate deliberations and decisions.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #149  
Old 07-10-2016, 14:35
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 7th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th October 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly lower, with mainland Chinese bourses the notable exception. The Yen strengthened ahead of today’s U.S. jobs data, which weighed on exporters and the ongoing rise in oil prices failed to lift sentiment. the front end WTI future is now trading above USD 50 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, but the FTSE 100 future is moving higher, underpinned by another slide in the pound, as France’s Holland reaffirmed the official EU stance, that access to the single market cannot be separated from the EU’s other key principles, including freedom of movement. So both sides are going into the official negotiations with a hard line stance and while part of this may be posturing it is clear that EU officials fear that abandoning the four key freedoms would set a dangerous precedent and could open the floodgates to a discussion on the general principles of the EU and fundamentally threaten the union, which will make any concessions to the U.K. difficult. U.S. jobs data will overshadow European data releases, which focus on production numbers from Germany, France and the U.K.

FX Update: The pound saw a dramatic dive and recovery during the early Asia session. There seems to be a degree of uncertainty about what the low was. Reuters reported a low of 1.1378 in Cable, since revised to 1.1491. The pair since recouped above 1.2450, which is still two big figures below levels seen at the New York close. The catalyst were remarks from France PM Hollande, who demanded that Britain suffer the consequences of leaving the EU, saying “it is not possible … to leave the EU and get the advantages without the obligations,” otherwise “we would jeopardise the fundamental principles of the EU.” Merkel, too, has this week indicated that the EU fundamental principles, including free movement of people, would be prioritized in upcoming Brexit negotiations. The pound’s outsized movement was greatly exacerbated by the sheer illiquidity of the sterling market in Asian hours. There is also talk of a “fat finger” trade amid the scramble of the interbank market to cover stop and options-related orders.

German industrial production jumped 2.5% August. Much more than expected and even if the strong number is not a total surprise after much better than anticipated manufacturing orders numbers yesterday, and the rise in the Ifo, the data still restores confidence in the German recovery. Especially after the weak July numbers, when production fell back -1.5% m/m, which is more than compensated by the uptick in August. Capital goods production bounced back with a rise of 4.7% m/m, after falling -4.0% m/m in July and the data confirms that developments in the Eurozone mirror that in the U.K. albeit with a month delay as the initial dip on the Brexit referendum was followed by a strong rebound. As even the BoE highlighted though, one shouldn’t put too much faith in these numbers and already dismiss any negative impact from the Brexit scenario, as the long term fallout is still very unclear, especially as both sides are heading for tough divorce negotiations. In Germany at least the volatility over the summer was also due to the unusual constellation of holidays across the states.

ECB Ready to Taper? ECB tapering speculation has spooked markets this week and the panic reaction to a report that merely said officials are nearing consensus to phase out asset purchases gradually rather than letting the program end abruptly highlights the challenges Draghi and Co. face going ahead. Later ECB’s Constancio is reported as saying that the ECB near taper consensus not correct, according to a MNI report, and QE will go on until inflation is back on track to its target. He said further than the council hasn’t discussed anything on QE.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Farm Payroll – Consensus median expectations from Bloomberg and Reuters polls have new jobs at 172,000, Unemployment unchanged at 4.9% and earnings up to 2.5%.

UK GDP estimates – The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) produce a monthly GDP prediction ahead of official government figures. Last month it was 0.3%. Could be more significant today following the volatile moves in GBP and UK stock markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #150  
Old 10-10-2016, 12:35
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 10th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2016.




Main Macro Events This Week

United States: Markets will remain nervous amid rising prospects for a Fed rate hike later this year, and in the aftermath of the Sterling “flash crash” on Friday where GBP-USD dropped 6% and moved seven big handles, from 1.2623 to a low of 1.1841., Treasury yields subsequently jumped sharply higher after the September jobs report was deemed good enough to support FOMC claims that the case for a rate hike is strengthening. And though slightly disappointing, and not strong enough to warrant a tightening as soon as November, the 154k rise in September nonfarm payrolls, the increases in the workweek and earnings, and the rise in the labor market participation rate, all added up to increased chance for a 25 bp tightening in December. Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 65% probability of a hike (and only about 15% for action in November). The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) to the September 20, 21 policy meeting will be widely read, but may not really show anything new. There are several important data reports this week that should further underpin tightening forecasts. September retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise a solid 0.7% overall, and 0.5% excluding autos. Trade prices are likely to remain weak, however, with declines of 0.1% for both import and export prices. JOLTS are a Fed favorite, so the August numbers will be scrutinized. Other data this week includes the Consumer sentiment, the Treasury budget, and business inventories. Producer prices are projected to rise 0.3% and Annual rates should rise to 0.8%.

It’s earnings season again too, with Alcoa in its typical leadoff role (Tuesday). Also on tap are Citigroup, JPMorgan, PNC Financial Services, and Wells Fargo (Friday). Fedspeakers this week include Chair Yellen who will be speaking at the Boston Fed’s conference (Friday). Evans and Kashkari will be at the podium Tuesday. Dudley and George are on the slate for Wednesday, while Harker and Kashkari speak Thursday, with Rosengren on deck for Friday. PPI for September will also be of interest since inflation is one of the keys to the Fed’s policy decisions.

Canada: Thanksgiving day holiday on Monday. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to a 190.0k annual growth rate in September. The new home price index (Thursday) is seen growing 0.2%. There is nothing on the docket from the Bank of Canada this week, but the October 19 announcement and Monetary Policy Report loom.

Europe: ECB taper talk has been dominating Eurozone markets of late and overshadowing better than expected data releases. The highlight of the data calendar this week will be German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), which is a difficult call amid ECB tapering talk, U.S. rate hike fears, the slump in GBP and the prospect of a hard Brexit, which counterbalance a surprisingly strong Ifo and jumps in orders and production data in August. Final inflation numbers from Germany (Thursday) and France (Wednesday) are expected at 0.5% y/y. Eurozone industrial production data for August (Wednesday) is likely to show a strong rebound from the -1.1% m/m dip in July, judging by national data.

UK: The overriding focus will remains on Brexit matters. So far, all that’s materially happened is that the UK has voted to leave the EU, but hardline Brexit negotiation stances of both the EU and UK have come into sharp form over the last week. The calendar is very quiet this week. BRC retail sales for September (Tuesday) and the RICS house price index for September (Thursday) highlight, but will be overlooked by sterling markets.

China: reported on Saturday a dip to 52.0 in the September Caixin services PMI from 52.1 in August. It was 50.5 a year ago. On this week’s docket is September loan growth and new yuan loans (during the week). Loans are seen edging up to a 13.1% pace from 13.0% previously. The September trade report (Thursday) should reveal a widening of the surplus to $55 bln from $51.1 bln previously. September CPI (Friday) is expected at 1.7%% y/y from 1.3%, while PPI should come in at -0.1% y/y from -0.8%.

Japan: is closed Monday for Health-Sports Day. The calendar kicks-off on Tuesday with the August current account data which is expected to show an decrease in the surplus to JPY 1,4000 bln. August machine orders (Wednesday) are seen plunging 4.0%. The August tertiary index (Thursday) is penciled in at -0.1% and Friday brings September PPI, which is forecast to rise to -3.3% y/y from -3.6%.

Australia: The calendar is thin as well. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review is the highlight (Friday). As for economic data, housing investment (Tuesday) is expected to fall 1.0% in August after the 4.2% drop in July.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Farm Payroll – Consensus median expectations from Bloomberg and Reuters polls have new jobs at 172,000, Unemployment unchanged at 4.9% and earnings up to 2.5%.

UK GDP estimates – The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) produce a monthly GDP prediction ahead of official government figures. Last month it was 0.3%. Could be more significant today following the volatile moves in GBP and UK stock markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #151  
Old 11-10-2016, 10:27
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 11th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th October 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, (Nikkei 225 closed up 0.97%) underpinned by a weaker Yen and the renewed uptick in oil prices yesterday after Russia signalled willingness to join the OPEC output cut. The front end WTI future fell back from highs, but is still trading above USD 51 per barrel. Hong Kong markets underperformed as developers came under pressure amid reports of restrictions in some Chinese cities designed to cool house price inflation. US and European stock futures are also down, signalling some correction on European bourses after yesterday’s oil induced rally. Bund futures meanwhile extended losses during after hour trade and comments from ECB’s Visco that an exit from QE would be data dependent will do little to dampen tapering concerns. ECB’s Mersch meanwhile repeated limits to negative interest rates. Still, with GBP remaining under pressure and inflation risks rising Gilts could well continue to underperform and the 10-year cash yield rise further above 1%. Released overnight, BRC retail sales showed the same store reading lifting 0.4% m/m in September, after a sharp drop in August. Otherwise the calendar focuses on German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to improve further in October (see below)

FX Update: The dollar continued to trade firmer. EURUSD logged a low of 1.1119, putting last Friday’s two-month nadir into reach, while USD-JPY’s rally extended to a peak of 104.04, swinging last Thursday’s six-week peak at 104.16 into scope. Fed tightening expectations having been keeping the dollar bid. Our post-employment data survey of Fed watchers found all respondents expecting a 25 bp rate hike at the December 13-14 policy meeting. Japanese markets and yen market liquidity returned today following yesterday’s public holiday. The yen traded mixed, losing ground to the dollar and euro, buy rising versus the Australian dollar and pound. Sterling came back under the cosh amid continued Brexit angst. The London Times headlined that a “hard Brexit” could cost GBP 66 billion a year.

EU not yielding to May’s “threat”. The U.K. may have hoped that by making clear that Prime Minister May is willing to risk losing access to the single market in order to achieve control over migration from other EU countries the rest of the EU may prompt a softening of the official EU stance, but it is clear that there is no appetite for a change in the treaties and a splitting of the EU’s four freedoms, which include both single market access and the free movement of labour. So the official EU stance remains unchanged to what if was before the Brexit referendum, when then Prime Minister Cameron tried to get further concessions for the U.K. Indeed considering the likely consequences of a change to the EU’s fundamental principles that were enshrined in the treaties, the EU clearly stands to lose more both economically as well as politically, if it were to set a precedence and abandoned the spirit of the treaties to keep the U.K. in the single market.

Fedspeak: Evans (long time dove) speaking in Sydney overnight – Risk of inflation not returning to the FED’s 2% “within acceptable time period” and not rising to 2% goal until roughly 2020. US not yet at full employment and “would not be surprised if there were a US rate hike in December”. The US Economy is on a strong footing, recent jobs report was a pretty good number the Election is not a bar to November hike, …but would “prefer to wait for more economic data”. Strong USD is a challenge for manufacturers, but has lowered import prices.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment: German ZEW investor confidence for October is a difficult call amid ECB tapering talk, U.S. rate hike fears, the slump in GBP and the prospect of a hard Brexit, which counterbalance a surprisingly strong Ifo and jumps in orders and production data in August. On balance expectations are for a rise in the headline reading to 4.0, which would confirm the ongoing improvement in sentiment with the number of those seeing strengthening growth ahead rising. Much will depend, however, on when the answers came in and an upside surprise (6.0+) is still possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #152  
Old 12-10-2016, 14:45
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 12th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with investors pondering the U.S. rate outlook and the slump in Samsung Electronics Co. adding to pressure. The Nikkei closed down -0.93% at 16, 867) Oil prices are slightly higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 51 per barrel amid scepticism about broad output cut agreements. US and UK stock futures meanwhile are higher, the latter despite a jump in the Pound. The European calendar has final French inflation data for September as well as Eurozone production numbers for August, with the latter expected to show a strong gain following very strong national data.

FX Update: Cable made a 31-year closing low in London at 1.2226. Notably this was also the low of the day, which can be taken as a technically bearish indication. Cable is 1.2264 bid presently, having plummeted another 200 pips to lows of 1.2085 and remains about 1.2% up on the day. The pairing is down by 5.4% w/w, 8.2% m/m and off by nearly 17% on the year-to-date. Dollar strength has been a factor in the mix in recent days, aside from Brexit-related sterling under performance (which has seen the currency to fresh lows versus the euro, yen and other currencies). The rebound from under 1.2100 was sparked by news, reported initially by Sky, that PM May has backed down and will allow parliament to scrutinise the government’s Brexit plan before Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered. This is apparently a concession by May to win support of Conservative MPs for a vote on whether to allow parliament to vote directly on the Article 50 plan, which the government does not want (and is subject to a legal challenge that is starting this week). For markets this development is a sign that the government could be forced to dilute its “hard Brexit” stance, although this will remain to be seen. Elsewhere, the dollar traded mixed. EURUSD clocked a 10-week low of 1.1031 while USDJPY settled in the mid 103s in a fourth day of consolidation after logging a six-week peak at 104.16 last Thursday. AUDUSD lifted by over 0.5%, reversing most of yesterday’s decline.

BOJ Governor Kuroda: Speaking to parliament explained that the BOJ will ease policy again if required including lowering negative rates further and buying more Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) (currently set at 80 trillion yen a year). The amount of JGB purchases will vary from year to year.

BOC Governor Poloz: His comments were consistent with no change in rates alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation in next week’s announcement and MPR. The governor’s remarks, as reported by Bloomberg, were cautiously upbeat on growth prospects. He acknowledged disappointment over the underperformance in exports and slow pace of the rebound but reiterated that the economy’s path remains positive and further fiscal stimulus will provide a boost near term. The Governor said “The situation continues to be okay…” We agree, with recent data consistent with an economy that continues to find its footing in the wake of the oil price shock and Fort McMurray wildfire. Notably, employment grew in both August and September while the Outlook Survey revealed that weakness in the resource sector is likely bottoming out. Modest reductions in the bank’s GDP projections are expected next week, but the rebound scenario will remain intact. Hence, projections remain for no change in rates until the first half of 2018, when modest rate hikes are seen.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed moderate Kashkari sees no urgency in raising rates and said the Fed should let the economy keep creating jobs so long as it doesn’t spur inflation. He says his eyes are wide open for signs of asset bubbles. Kashkari is speaking on the Too-Big-To-Fail topic, but segued into policy, though this is in line with his previous arguments in favour of patience.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Minutes – The minutes will be an interesting read given the degree of market speculation of a rate hike back then, and now, and especially with the three dissenting votes against last month’s unchanged policy decision. However, there’s not likely to be any new information shared since that meeting included the Fed’s new projections and dot plot, along with Chair Yellen’s press conference. There’s also been considerable Fedspeak since the meeting, explaining the stance. The minutes should show confirmation the Fed remained sidelined due to the slowdown in the labour market and uncertainties over the fallout from Brexit.

JOLTS Report – A favourite of Governor Yellen, data released at 14:00 GMT expectations are for a slight fall to 5.79million from 5.87million last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #153  
Old 13-10-2016, 13:47
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 13th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with Hong Kong once again underperforming, after disappointing Chinese trade data and as the FED minutes said the case for a rate hike has strengthened. Together with curbs on property in China, the Hang Seng continues to underperform, while a stronger Yen is weighing on Japanese bourses. A Reuters source story meanwhile confirmed that a decision on the ECB’s QE changes and a possible extension is unlikely to be taken before December, although the council may already discuss some technical tweaks next week. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also I negative territory and oil prices are down with the front end WTI future below USD 50 per barrel. With Sterling heading south again and the EUR moving higher against most currencies, the FTSE 100 may once again outperform the DAX, but yields are generally trending higher on both sides of the Channel. Released overnight U.K. RICS house price data came in better than expected.

FOMC minutes: Several members wanted to raise rates “relatively soon,” though we already knew that with the three dissenters. But, “a reasonable argument could be made either for an increase at this meeting or for waiting for some additional information on the labor market and inflation.” Obviously the Committee chose the latter and in a “close call,” decided to delay action. Nothing jumps out from the minutes to solidify expectations on a hike later this year. Interestingly, the FOMC worried about “eroding its credibility, especially given that recent economic data had largely corroborated the Committee’s economic outlook.” . While it’s still the case that economic data reports matter, this latter comment regarding worries over credibility, will keep the markets guessing about a December hike.

German Sep HICP inflation: Confirmed at 0.6% y/y, the national HICP rate at 0.7% y/y. The breakdown showed that the uptick over the month was mainly due to less negative base effects from energy prices, with prices for petrol falling -3.5% y/y in September, after still dropping -9.1% y/y in August. The rate excluding energy rose to 1.0% from 0.7% and excluding energy and petrol the rate rose to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in August. A confirmation then that inflation is trending higher, as oil prices stabilise and the most recent uptick in oil prices means the adjustment could happen quicker than anticipated. Further ammunition then for the ECB’s hawk, which are reluctant to extent the already generous stimulus further when the current QE program ends in March next year. Against that background a tapering, with somewhat reduced monthly purchase levels could be a typical European compromise.

FX Update: A big miss in Chinese exports drove a risk-off play in forex markets in the Asia session. AUDJPY, which is a risk appetite proxy, shed nearly 1%, while USDJPY, which had earlier clocked a 10-week high at 104.63, tipped back sharply to a low of 103.55, subsequently settling around 103.80. Aside from the 10% y/y dive in Chinese exports, softer oil prices and the latest FOMC minutes highlighting of hawkish arguments at the Fed were also in the mix of risk appetite spoilers. The yen gained in accordance with its historical inverse correlation with global stock market direction. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index lost over 1% as it fell into three-week low territory. USDJPY needs to hold 103.28, yesterday’s low to retain bullish trend credentials. A breach would signal a greater risk of a mean reversion move. The 20- and 50-day moving averages are presently at 102.09 and 101/89, respectively.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Job Claims – Initial claims data for the week of October 8 are out today and should reveal a slight headline increase to 253k from 249k last week and 254k in the week of September 24. More broadly, claims are expected to average 256k in October from 254k in September and 262k in August.

US Import & Export Prices – September trade price data is expected to show import prices unchanged with export prices down 0.2% on the month. This follows respective August figures which had import prices down 0.2% and export prices down 0.8%. The drop in oil prices over last winter and spring depressed headlines in this release but as prices rebounded over summer so too did headline import prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #154  
Old 14-10-2016, 15:30
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 14th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets and Hang Seng managing to move higher after yesterday’s dip, but investors continue to eye China nervously as weak trade data yesterday was followed by higher than expected inflation data on Friday. Oil prices moved higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 50.84 per barrel, which helped to underpin equity markets as the focus turns to Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed conference. U.S. stock futures are little changed, while the FTSE 100 future is moving higher with Sterling weakness helping the index to outperform other European markets, while adding to Gilt underperformance as concerns about the inflation impact picks up. The EUR is down against all other currencies aside from GBP, which may also help to put a floor under stock markets despite tapering talk. The European calendar has final September inflation numbers from Spain and Italy as well as Eurozone trade data and Swiss PPI inflation.

China CPI & PPI Exceed Expectations: China Sep. CPI: 1.9% y/y (expected 1.6%) and PPI +0.1% (expected -0.3%). It’s the first time PPI has come in higher since January of 2012. Higher coal and steel prices a key factor in the positive result, and these could well be a signal of a diminishing of over-capacity problems.

US Data Reports: Revealed firmness in September trade prices and lean initial claims through the first two weeks of October that beat estimates, leaving upside risk for Q4 GDP and October payrolls that we peg at 2.5% and 170k respectively. For trade prices, we saw the expected 1.2% September oil import price bounce, but with a firm 0.3% export price rise. For claims, we saw a flat figure at the downwardly-revised 246k (was 249k) level from the first week of October that left a two-week stretch for claims at a new 42-year low. Claims are entering October well below already-lean September levels.

Fedspeak: Moderate Harker – the economy is doing “pretty well” and we have a strong labor market, he said, though the share of the population that wants to work makes it harder for the Fed to guide the economy. Harker also denied that the Fed is affected by the election cycle or influenced by politics. He also said a hike sooner than later would be his preference, though raising rates too quickly could have an impact on exports (USD index probed 98.0 7-month highs yesterday). He reiterates that he expects one rate hike by the end of 2016 and “at least two” next year. Kashkari – not forecasting a boom and not forecasting a recession for the US economy, but does expect more sluggish growth.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – September retail sales data is out today and should reveal a 0.6% headline with a 0.5% ex-autos increase. This would follow respective August figures which had the headline down 0.3% on the month with the ex-autos figure down 0.1% for that month. The release faces upside risk from firm chain store sales, stronger gasoline prices and an increase in auto sales.

US PPI – September PPI should reveal a 0.2% headline with a 0.1% increase for the core. This follows August figures which had the headline unchanged and the core up 0.1%. Oil prices managed to climb in September which could lend some upside risk to the release.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out today too and should reveal a 92.0 headline from 91.2 in September and 89.8 in August. After some weakness in August the various measures of consumer confidence posted a rebound in September although they are still tracking below the highs seen last spring.

Yellen and Carney – Both the Fed Chair and the BOE Governor have speaking engagements scheduled for today. With Sterling under continued scrutiny and Fed members becoming increasingly hawkish; their respective speeches are to be followed closely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #155  
Old 17-10-2016, 10:28
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 17th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th OCTOBER 2016.




Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The economic calendar is a relatively light one this week, but does include an important inflation update, a rash of housing data and the Philly Fed survey. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound to 1.0 in October (Monday), while industrial production may recover 0.1% in September, capacity utilization seen rising to 75.6% from 75.5%. CPI is projected to jump 0.3% headline (Tuesday), with a 0.2% core rise vs 0.3%. The NAHB housing market index is expected to dip to 63 in October. The MBA mortgage application survey is due (Wednesday) and we’ll see how well it absorbs the rebound in mortgage rates, while housing starts are seen rebounding 2.4% to a 1,170k pace in October. EIA energy inventories will also be monitored for any “tell” on the near-term direction of energy prices. The Philly Fed index may sink to 6.3 in October from 12.8 (Thursday), while initial jobless claims may bounce 4k to 250k. Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.2% in September vs -0.2%, while existing home sales may bounce 1.3% to 5.40 mln. The calendar is empty Friday.

Fedspeak: the big guns continue to appear this week after Yellen’s dovish long-term guidance last week, starting with Fed Vice Chairman Fischer (Monday) who has been leaning more hawkishly near-term of late. SF Fed dove Williams speaks on (Wednesday), followed by Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan in a Q&A session. NY Fed dove Dudley discusses the economic history of New York from 19:45 ET. All three have mulled the likelihood of a hike before year-end and seem inclined to follow through, barring any extraordinary events beforehand. Dudley makes another appearance on the financial industry (Thursday). Governor Tarullo speaks (Friday), followed by Williams again.

Earnings will be important this week with many heavyweights slated to announce results. Including BoA, Netflix, IBM, (Monday) Goldman Sachs, Yahoo, Intel (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley, eBay (Wednesday) , Verizon, American Airlines, PayPal (Thursday) and GE and McDonald’s (Friday).

Canada: The Bank of Canada takes center stage this week, with the announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on tap for Wednesday. There is also manufacturing report (Tuesday) and CPI (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September and 1.4% y/y growth pace in September from the 1.1% rate of gain in August.

Europe: The focus this week will be on the ECB meeting (Thursday). The data calendar, s pretty empty. Final Eurozone HICP inflation for September is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y. German September PPI inflation is also likely to see rates moving up. Preliminary October Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to improve to -8.0 from -8.2 in September.

UK: The plunge in the pound, which has been likened to an emerging world currency in a research piece from Citi last week, looks likely to continue to drive underperformance in UK sovereign debt given the risk of higher inflation. BoE Governor Carney appeared to make a verbal currency market intervention on Friday, saying that the central bank is “not indifferent” to forex levels. The helped give the pound a prop, though the impact was limited. September inflation data (Tuesday), headline CPI to tick up to a new cycle high of 0.9%. Core CPI is also seen rising to a new cycle peak, of 1.4% y/y, from 1.3%. Such a rise in CPI will be consistent with BoE projections. Monthly labour statistics are also up (Wednesday), where the rear-view unemployment measure for August is expected unchanged at 4.9%, which is the cycle low. Average weekly earnings in the three-months to August are expected rise 2.3% in the with-bonus figure, which would still be well above inflation.

China: Q3 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast to hold steady at the 6.7% y/y pace from Q2. Growth has been moderating for the last several quarters, and is down from 7.2% in Q4 2014. September industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to slip slightly to 6.2% y/y from 6.3% previously. September retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in at a 10.6% y/y clip, unchanged from August. September fixed investment is also due Wednesday, expected unchanged at an 8.1% y/y rate. September loan growth and new yuan loans are tentatively due Monday, and are expected to post a 13.1% y/y clip from 13.0%, and CNY 1,050.0 bln from CNY 948.7 bln, respectively.

Japan: The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is seen edging up 0.2% m/m from up 0.3% previously. This would be a third monthly gain. Revised industrial production has been reported and has missed expectations.

Australia: Calendar has September employment (Thursday), expected to improve 15.0k after the 3.9k drop in August. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.7% in September from 5.6% in August. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the October meeting are due (Tuesday). Governor Lowe speaks (Tuesday) at Citi’s 8th Annual Australian & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #156  
Old 20-10-2016, 14:22
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 20th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 th OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, as the Dollar strengthened in the wake of the last U.S. presidential debate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Japanese markets and the most recent rise in oil prices is also helping to underpin investor demand. The front end WTI future has come off highs but is holding comfortably above USD 51 per barrel. In Europe the focus is on the ECB meeting and even if policy is likely to remain on hold today, Draghi will hope to keep his options sufficiently open to avoid a temper tantrum as markets focus on further stimulus beyond the current QE program, which ends in March next year. The European calendar also has U.K. retail sales, BoP and current account data from the Eurozone and Swiss trade data at the start of the session.

BOC Rate Decision: Governor Poloz said they actively discussed adding more monetary stimulus before deciding to leave the policy rate unchanged. He said the Governing Council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to return to the economy to full capacity.” Yet, they “identified a number of uncertainties in the current framework that are serving to widen the zone of balance within our risk-management framework.” Those uncertainties include “the macroeconomic effects of the new mortgage rates, the likely path of our exports; the impact of the federal government’s fiscal measures…and the effects on business confidence of the U.S. election.” The revelation that they “actively discussed” the possibility of adding more stimulus is not exactly a surprise. Given where the domestic and global economy currently sit, expectations are that this will continued to be discussed but with the same result (no change in rates) to be the same.

Poor Australian Labour Data: The number of jobs fell last month by 9,800, expectations were for an increase of 15,200, also the previous month was revised down to a fall of 8,600 from a fall of 3,900. Fulltime employment for September showed a dramatic fall of 53,000 and August was revised down to 10,500 from 11,500. AUD/USD dropped from around 0.7725 to under 0.7700, spent a few minutes chopping in a small range before slipping further and its under 0.7665 currently. Just as doubts were raised after big employment gains in the past, doubts were raised on big employment losses on today’s figures, the -53K for full time jobs in the month result in particular was greeted with questions.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed moderate (and non-voter) Kaplan sees inflation firming while GDP growth for 2016 will likely average 1.75%, sufficient to drive down unemployment and take some slack out of the labor force. He sees political uncertainty likely affecting capital spending, but once the election is out of the way focus needs to shift to entitlement reform and infrastructure spending. Kaplan also notes that the Fed needs to be “humble” about the limits of monetary policy. Fed’s Potter says the Fed should be prepared to sell MBS, in comments at a Minneapolis Fed conference. Potter is head of the Fed’s Markets Group, so he has a lot of authority behind his words. Though “current FOMC guidance states that the sale of agency MBS is not anticipated…it is prudent for the Desk to be prepared for a wide variety of scenarios, including sales or the need to purchase additional agency MBS.” The large size and structure of the agency MBS market makes it a “desirable choice for conduction operations of the magnitude necessary t have a meaningful impact on financial and macroeconomic conditions.” However, the Fed’s experience with selling MBS is much more limited than purchasing agency paper, he noted. The Fed’s portfolio and possible manipulations of such has been in the news lately, especially after a “twist” operation was broached by Boston Fed’s Rosengren last week.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Announcement & Press Conference – Even if the ECB more likely to postpone any major decisions until December Draghi will be facing a difficult balancing act at today’s press conference, especially since a Reuters reported suggested that the planned tweaks to the asset purchase program designed to address looming supply shortages could already be discussed this week. At the same time, the question is whether the ECB will extend the QE program beyond March next year, when the current schedule of EUR 80 bln purchases per month is set to end. With growth indicators suggesting ongoing economic expansion and inflation starting to move higher, the ECB clearly is reluctant to add even more stimulus to an already very expansionary policy but the doves at the council will press for a follow up program with the end result likely a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. It will depend on Draghi’s delivery whether this will spook markets as the dreaded “tapering” or whether he can sell it as the further expansion of monetary policy it actually is. For now Draghi will be keeping all his options open and try to deliver a statement that keeps markets guessing and hoping and thus avoids a temper tantrum.

US Philly Fed Index – October Philly Fed should reveal a headline dip to 6.3 after the September bounce to 12.8 from 2.0 in August. The Empire State Index for October is already out and declined to -6.8 from -2.0 in September. Broadly, expectations are for producer sentiment to trend sideways in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from August and September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #157  
Old 21-10-2016, 14:17
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 21st October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japanese bourses managing marginal gains as the Yen falls against the Dollar. Stock futures in the U.S. are down, but U.K. futures are slightly in positive territory after the UK100 managed to close with a marginal gain on Thursday. Eurozone bond and stock markets outperformed yesterday after Draghi managed to dampen tapering fears, while postponing any decisions on future policy to December. Bund futures moved sideways in after hour trade, and oil prices are falling towards USD 50 per barrel, which will dampen investor appetite but Eurozone markets are likely to continue outperforming their U.K. counterparts in the wake of Draghi’s statement yesterday. The data calendar is relatively quiet, with only U.K. public finance data, but the ECB’s survey of professional forecasts will give clues about the inflation outlook and comments from Weidmann may add a more hawkish spin to Draghi’s message yesterday. The GER30 is awaiting earnings reports from Daimler as positive numbers from SAP are underpinning the index ahead of the official open.

Kuroda Speech: BOJ will evaluate appropriate yield curve at every meeting, “ideal” can change depending on economy, not immediately thinking of lowering 80tln yen goal and possible to revise reaching 2% inflation time frame (currently target is for Inflation to hit 2% during 2017) !! He also reemphasized that “buying, selling FX is under the jurisdiction of the Finance Ministry”.

ECB – Decisions on QE Postponed until December: Nothing new from the ECB, with major decisions postponed, pretty much as we expected. While Draghi initially spooked markets by saying that an extension to the QE program hasn’t been discussed today, he still managed to keep investors happy in the end, by adding that an abrupt halt to asset purchases is unlikely. With the current program, which runs until March, confirmed at EUR 80 bln per month, this implies an extension of the asset purchase schedule, even if it may come at somewhat reduced levels.

US Data Reports: Revealed firm Philly Fed component data despite a small headline drop to 9.7 in October from a 19-month high of 12.8, alongside a 13k bounce in initial claims in the BLS survey week to a still respectable 260k that remains consistent with a remarkably lean 253k October average. We also saw a 3.2% September existing home sales rise to a 5.47 mln rate that beat estimates, alongside a 0.2% September leading indicators bounce that reversed a 0.2% August drop. The monthly data appear poised for an upturn into Q4, as the bounce in oil prices is allowing a mining and factory output recovery just as the big six-quarter inventory headwind comes to a close.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August after the 0.1% dip in July. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen expanding 0.4% in August following the 0.1% dip in July. Gasoline prices dipped just 0.9% in August after the 5.6% plunge in July, according to the CPI . Hence we should see the gasoline station sales component exert a very slight drag on total and ex-autos sales. Vehicle sales downshifted to a slower pace in July, and that modest slowing persisted in August according to industry sales figures. Sales volumes grew 0.3% in July, suggestive of some awaking in the consumer after spending declines from March to June.

Canada CPI – CPI is also expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.2% drop in August. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.4% y/y pace in September from the 1.1% rate in August. A pick-up in gasoline prices is expected to drive the gain in total CPI during September relative to August, contrasting with the hefty gasoline price declines that were a drag on total CPI in July and August. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September after the flat reading in August, leaving a 1.8% y/y pace that is identical to the growth rate in in August.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #158  
Old 26-10-2016, 15:15
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 26th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan a notable outperforming (closing up and indices holding on to modest gains as the Yen continued to decline against the Dollar. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south as oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading below USD 50 per barrel, which has been hitting energy producers. Investors continue to watch earnings reports. ECB’s Draghi once again defended the ECB’s policy in a speech in Germany yesterday evening, while once again calling for support from the fiscal side. Nothing new there that would change the policy outlook.

German GfK consumer confidence: Dropped to 9.7 in November, from 10.0 in October. There is no breakdown for the November projections but the fall back was unexpected and disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected Ifo and PMI readings this week. The breakdown for October showed a marked improvement in business cycle expectations, which jumped to 13.0 from 6.8, the highest reading since June, which suggests that the Brexit shock was short lived. Despite this income expectations declined sharply as did the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save also slumped amid the low interest rate environment. Mixed messages then and at least in Germany it seems Draghi’s policy of easy money is not lifting consumption.

Australian CPI: The Australian dollar rallied following an above-forecast headline in Australian Q3 CPI, which rose 0.7% q/q, above the median expectation for a 0.5% rise. Most expect this should keep the RBA, which had cited concerns about disinflation as prime reasons for cutting rates in May and August this year, from any temptation to cut rates at its policy meeting next week. Core inflation painted a more benign picture, remaining unchanged at 1.5% y/y. AUDUSD lifted to a one-week high at 0.7708, which was a gain of just over 1%, before settling around 0.7690.

US Data reports: Revealed a larger than expected consumer confidence drop to 98.6 in October from a 103.5 (was 104.1) September figure that now sits marginally below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015, alongside a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0 in September and a 3-year low of -11.0 August. We also saw big gains in two August home price indicators of 0.4% for Case-Shiller and 0.7% for the FHFA. The ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rose to 51.5 from 50.8 in September and a 43-month low of 49.7 in August, as we’re seeing a renewed uptrend in producer sentiment with the bounce in oil prices and a recovery in mining and factory output as the big six-quarter inventory headwind reverses course. Confidence faces a headwind from the November elections, though we have an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce after a three-quarter string of lean 1% growth rates through Q2.

Main Macro Events Today

US Flash Services PMI – Expectations are for a slight uptick to 52.4 from a positively revised 52.3 last time.

US New Home Sales – New home sales are expected to decrease 1.5% to a 600k unit pace in September from 609k in August. Forecast risk: upward, given the higher NAHB for the month. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact the path of further rate hikes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #159  
Old 27-10-2016, 14:42
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 27th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed broadly lower, as investors remain focused on the earnings season, with Canon Inc. the biggest drag on the index. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, following on from losses yesterday. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI (USOil) futures remains firmly below USD 50 per barrel, as U.S. East and Gulf coast stockpiles rose and the country’s production picked up. In Europe Deutsche Bank reports earnings today and the calendar has U.K. Q3 GDP growth data, which is expected to show a sharp deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.3%. The Eurozone has M3 money supply growth and Italian consumer and business confidence data. Elsewhere Norges Bank is expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 0.50%. Core European bond futures declined in tandem with stock markets yesterday, as the focus remains on the U.S. rate outlook and the U.S. Presidential Election.

US Earnings – the busiest day : Earnings will remain the focal point again today with several more heavy hitters on tap. The calendar features Alphabet, Amazon, Twitter, Amgen, Baidu, Dow Chemical, Dr Pepper Snapple, Ford Motor, Aetna, Blackstone, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brunswick, ConocoPhillips, Celgene, Raytheon, Expedia, Choice Hotels, Colgate-Palmolive, VW, Deckers, Hanesbrands, HealthSouth, LinkedIn, MGM Resorts, Nokia, Samsung Electronics, SolarCity, and Stanley Black & Decker.

US Data reports: Revealed big upside September surprises in the advance indicator report for the trade deficit and inventories alongside a 3.1% September new home sales rise that unfortunately followed big downward revisions over the prior three months that trimmed the summer sales spike. The trade and inventory surprises lifted Q3 GDP growth estimates sharply to 3.3% from 2.5%, though there were reductions in Q4 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.5% as the expected Q4 inventory bounce was “pulled forward” into September. Expectations are now for a September drop in the goods and services trade gap to $36.5 bln from $40.7 bln in August. Also a 0.2% September business inventory increase that incorporates yesterday’s gains of 0.2% for wholesalers and 0.3% for retailers, alongside an assumed 0.1% factory inventory rise.

Germany’s Schaeuble: U.K. can’t have Brexit “A La Carte”. Nothing really new there, with the German finance minister repeating again that single market membership requires the acceptance of the EU’s four freedoms. He also said that the EU can’t show much flexibility, which confirms again that boths sides are heading for a hard Brexit scenario and Schaeuble’s hope that the economic damage for the EU and the U.K should be kept to a minimum, may be hard to achieve.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Prelim GDP – The first post Brexit quarterly reading. So far cable has pivoted around 1.2200, since the flash crash on October 7th. Announcement watched eagerly in Downing Street and at the BOE. Expectations are for a q/q figure of 0.3%. Last time 0.5% and the subsequently revised up to 0.7%.

US Core Durable Goods – September figure is seen as edging up 0.2%, after August’s revised 0.1% increase.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #160  
Old 31-10-2016, 11:54
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 31st October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st OCTOBER 2016.




FX News Today

FBI’s Comey dropped a bombshell on the markets late Friday as he announced the agency would be reviving the Clinton email probe after learning, via a separate investigation, of the existence of apparently “pertinent” messages on a PC owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged husband of Clinton advisor Huma Abedin). In his letter, Comey reportedly told key members of Congress that his agency should take “appropriate investigative steps.” Wall Street dropped on the news, though a bounce in Biotech and Pharma shares (on the hot seat under Clinton) helped the Dow recover toward unchanged levels. The Mexican peso, the de facto election barometer, was the main casualty of the news, plunging 1.4% before closing 0.9% lower. Concurrently, bond yields closed modestly lower on short covering and risk aversion. This heightened uncertainty will make for an extraordinary run up to the November 8 election.

United States: The FOMC (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be a point of interest for the markets this week, but not quite the center of attention it usually is. The pick-up in Advance Q3 GDP to 2.9% helped clear the way for a hike in December, and implied futures were suggesting about a 75-80% probability — the November 1, 2 FOMC was never really in the running due to the election. Other data this week will have more relevance for how the markets set up for the December policy decision. Remember, the onus is on the data to keep the Fed sidelined at year end. Personal income (Monday) and PCE. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed index (Tuesday) and construction spending. MBA mortgage applications are on tap (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to increase 160k in October. Q3 productivity (Thursday) along with. Initial jobless claims, ISM services and factory goods orders. The employment report will highlight on Friday, with October nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 174k vs 156k in September, with a 160k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 4.9% from 5.0% in September. The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a second month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.

The Q3 earnings announcements continue this week. So far, most of the S&P companies which have announced have beaten estimates. This week includes Electronic Arts, Pfizer, Alibaba, Allergan, Facebook, Fitbit, Time Warner, Kraft Heinz, Adidas, Liberty Global, Starbucks and BMW.

Canada: A heavy slate of economic data this week: The industrial product price index (Monday), GDP (Tuesday), Employment (Friday) is projected to fall 15.0k in October, but after the stunning 67.2k surge in September. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0%. The trade deficit also (Friday) is expected to narrow to -C$1.8 bln in September from -C$1.9 bln in August, as Canada’s trade position continues to gradually improve. The October RBC manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and October Ivey PMI (Friday) are also due.

Europe: Preliminary Eurozone Q3 GDP numbers and October inflation data will be in focus this week, which together with the final readings for October PMI surveys, will add to the data mix that could prove decisive for the ECB December decision on future QE purchases. Preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) meanwhile is seen accelerating to 0.5% y/y.The data calendar also has unemployment numbers from Germany for October, (Wednesday). Eurozone September unemployment (Thursday) is seen steady at 10.2%. German retail sales and French production data are also on the slate.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since September (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will at the same time release the latest Quarterly Inflation Report with updated growth and inflation projections. While last week brought some good news, including the solid Q3 GDP report and news that Nissan will remain committed to its manufacturing operations in Brexit-bound Britain, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. S&P affirmed its AA credit rating for the UK late on Friday, although the agency maintained its negative outlook and warned that Brexit “presents a significant risk to the UK’s track record of strong economic performance, and to its large financial sector in particular.” The UK data calendar is also busy this week. Monthly BoE lending data (Monday) should see lending stabilize. The October PMI surveys highlight. The manufacturing PMI release (Tuesday), the construction PMI (Wednesday) and the services PMI (Thursday). Outcomes in-line with expectations would affirm that the economy is continuing to expand in early Q4.

China: The only reports are the services and manufacturing PMI measures (both Tuesday).

Japan: The BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) will be anxiously awaited amid policy uncertainties. While Governor Kuroda and Company are not expected to reveal any changes to the QE program, the markets will be watching for any shift to the Bank’s timeline for hitting its inflation goal of 2%. Data wise September preliminary industrial production, Retail sales , housing starts, construction orders and auto sales are all published (Monday). The Nikkei/Markit October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 48.0 from 48.2 previously. October consumer confidence (Wednesday) is forecast at 42.5 from 43.0 previously, while October services PMI is due Friday. The markets are closed for a holiday Thursday.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% setting for the policy rate. Building approvals (Wednesday), the trade deficit (Thursday), Retail sales (Friday) and finally the October Melbourne Institute inflation index (Monday) is also scheduled for release.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
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