Forex Lasers Forum

Forex Lasers Forum (https://www.forexlasers.com/forums/)
-   Forex Analysis (https://www.forexlasers.com/forums/forex-analysis/)
-   -   Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. (https://www.forexlasers.com/forums/forex-analysis/2739-hotforex-com-market-analysis-news.html)

HFblogNews 09-03-2018 12:29

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 9th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...09_8-54-39.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets rose in Asia, amid news that President Trump agreed to an unprecedented summit with North Korea’s leader, thus easing concerns of an escalation of tensions. Nikkei and Topix closed with gains of 0.32% and 0.47% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.07% and 0.79%. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, however, so far not suggesting that the news will light a fireworks on U.S. markets. Long bond yields are mixed. 10-year JGB’s came down from earlier highs and is now down -0.2 bp on the day at 0.040%, as the BoJ remained on hold as expected. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.23 per barrel. Gold prices are heading for a third weekly drop amid easing geopolitical tensions higher.

FX Update: The yen weakened on political news, specifically Trump’s agreeing to Kim Jong Un’s request for a meeting and a declaration from North Korea that it is suspending ICBM testing, which was tonic for stock markets in Asia. The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, and left its outlook unaltered (the statement noting that the economy is “expanding moderately”), as expected. BoJ Governor Kuroda will be holding a press conference shortly, where he is likely to maintain that an exit from stimulus remains in the distance. USDJPY rallied to an eight-day high of 106.94, up over 60 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level. BoJ Governor Kuroda stuck to a dovish script at his post-meeting press conference, saying that further easing measures must be considered in the event that momentum towards achieving the 2% inflation target wanes and that there are presently no plans to exit from stimulative policy settings. He also stressed that the BoJ will “patiently continue with aggressive stimulus.” He said that stimulus could be taken away before the inflation target is seem, but weakened this verbalization by adding “in theory.” The BoJ earlier announced unchanged policy. Japan’s economy is amid its longest growth phase in decades, but inflation has remained chronically anem

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...4-1024x709.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Industrial Production – January industrial output to rise 1.5% m/m rebounding from the -1.3% figure seen in December

* Canadian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate – projected to show a 20.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9%

* US Non-Farm Payrolls – February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k from 200K last month.

* US Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from a 4.1% rate since October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 12-03-2018 10:45

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 12th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

U.S. imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs caused consternation and hand wringing for much of last week. But, news of an agreement to meet between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea, possible carve-outs on the tariffs, and the a stellar U.S. jobs report helped revive global equities, even as bond yields resumed their rise too. Meanwhile the threat of another government shutdown could put a wrinkle into trading The continuing resolution passed in early February that kept the government open expires on March 23.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be slow to warm up, but will end the week with a crescendo. None of the reports will change the immediate Fed outlook, however, where a March hike is basically a done deal. The Treasury budget gap (Monday) set to widen to -$216 bln for February from the -$192 bln year-ago gap. The likely culprits are a pick up in refunds and a small decline in withheld receipts, in large part due to the tax law changes. CPI (Monday) could be the most important statistic of the week since it’s crucial to the FOMC’s rate trajectory. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday) with the average 30-year mortgage rate topping 4.65% — the highest level in over 4-years — refis may continue to ebb. PPI (Wednesday) is forecast sinking 0.1% in February. with core seen rising 0.2%. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen returning a healthy 0.5% or 0.6% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year. January business inventories (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.6% from 0.5%.

Data gears back up (Thursday) with Empire State seen rising to 16.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 21.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 8k lower to 223k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected (Thursday) to gain 0.1% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72. The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts (Friday) forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.26 mln pace (median 1.29 mln) from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.2% in February from -0.1% (Friday), while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 100.0 for March from 99.7 previously.

Canada: In Canada the data and events calendar shifts to the slow lane this week after the busy docket seen last week. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are expected to fall 1.0% in January (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% dip in December. Q4 net worth (Thursday) will be closely watched, as the report contains the debt-to-disposable income ratio. The ratio saw a record high 171.1% in Q3, and could move even higher in Q4 to underpin the elevated degree of sensitivity household have to higher interest rates. The report should underpin the BoC’s go-slow approach to policy normalization. February existing home sales are due Thursday. The ADP jobs tally for February is also due Thursday. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for February is scheduled for Wednesday. International securities transactions for January are out Friday.

Europe: With the ECB meeting out of the way, and a lull in data releases, this should be a relatively quiet week that will give markets and investors time to settle down, digest the tweak in the ECB’s guidance on QE and watch geopolitical events unfold. The dovish leaning triumvirate – Draghi, Constancio and Praet is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place. The tweak in the statement merely had a signaling character and confirmed that the central bank is inching toward an exit from net asset purchases at a snail’s pace. The data calendar focuses mainly on final February inflation numbers, which are unlikely to bring major surprises. The Spanish reading expected (Tuesday) to be confirmed at 1.2% y/y, German HICP (Wednesday) also at 1.2% y/y, the French (Wednesday) at 1.3% y/y, the Italian CPI (Friday) at just 0.7% y/y, leaving the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday) also at 1.2 %y/y.

UK: The calendar this week is devoid of top-tier data. The next release of note is the inflation data on March 20th. Brexit-related noise will continue to spout forth, though is likely to remain too inconclusive to impart much directional bias on sterling. The ECB is in the process of formalizing a response to the laid-out UK position on Brexit. The next key juncture is the EU leaders’ summit on March 22nd, and following that, the two sides will look to hammer out a concrete agreement (on a future trading relationship, the Irish border and a transition period) before October this year, which would leave the 27 EU countries time to ratify it before March 29th next year, when the UK formally leaves the EU and, most likely, when a two-year transition period starts before the UK will fully break free of the single market, customs union, and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It’s more than probable that a new trade deal will need much more time to be agreed on (the Canadian-EU trade deal was seven years in the making).

Japan: the March MoF business outlook survey (Monday) is seen improving 7 from 6.2 in February. But, February PPI (Tuesday) should dip to a 2.6% y/y pace from January’s 2.7%. The January tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in falling another, the same decline that was registered in December. January core machine orders (Wednesday) are forecast rebounding 6.0% m/m from -11.9% in December. Revised January industrial production will be released on Friday.

China: February industrial production and retail sales (Wednesday) will be important for the overall growth outlook. The former is estimated holding at the 6.2% y/y pace previously registered. February retail sales are seen slowing marginally to a 9.3% y/y rate from 9.4% in December. Note the data jump from December to February as there were no January reports due to the Lunar New Year holidays. February fixed investment (Wednesday) is seen little changed at 7.1% y/y from 7.2% in January.

Australia: a trifecta of Reserve Bank of Australia speeches highlight the week. Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock speaks (Tuesday) at the Seamless Australia Payments Conference. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent addresses the Kanga News DCM Summit (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks (Friday) at the Financial Risk Day in Sydney. The data calendar has housing finance (Tuesday), seen slipping 0.5% in January after the 2.3% drop in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 13-03-2018 09:51

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 13th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...13_9-09-50.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.3 bp in early trade at 0.624%, the 2-year is down -0.2 bp at -0.590%. Peripherals are outperforming at the long end, but the picture is more mixed in the 2-year area. Eurozone stock futures are moving higher, in tandem with U.S. futures, UK100 futures are in the red, after a mixed session in Asia. Data releases remain thin on the ground and investors are looking to US inflation data for guidance on the pace of Fed tightening. In Europe, Brexit speculation ahead of the March 22-23 summit, ECB speak and the SNB’s policy review remain in focus.

FX Update:The yen back out of early-Tokyo highs and is showing an average 0.4% decline versus the dollar and euro heading into the London interbank open. USDJPY logging a high of 106.90 after posting a three-session low at 106.25. EURJPY also lifted out of a two-session low to make a two-session high of 131.77. AUDJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The dollar, meanwhile, traded with a steady-to-firmer tilt with markets eyeing today’s release of the U.S. CPI, a data series that has been having a relatively heightened influence on markets as the participants look to fine tune their Fed policy expectation. EURUSD has ebbed to the 1.2325 area, moderately lower from a 1.2345 two-session high that was seen in early Tokyo. As for the yen’s weakness, this has come despite a flagging bullish sentiment in global equity market, though in the bigger view the Japanese currency yen has been trading in a relatively narrow sideways pattern over the last week, and USDJPY is near to the midway point of the range that’s been seen over the last month. Japan’s finance minister Aso is likely to skip next week’s G20 meeting due to the alleged embroilment of the Ministry of Finance with a state land sale scandal. In data, Japan’s tertiary index contracted by 0.6 % m/m, worse than the -0.3% median forecast.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...3-1024x707.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Budget Report

* US CPI and Core CPI – It is set to increase by just 0.1% for both headline and core, which should keep the core y/y pace unchanged at 1.8%.

* BOC Gov Poloz Speech – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks on “Today’s labor market and the future of work.” The text of his prepared speech is available 10:15 ET on Tuesday.

* RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech

Support and Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...13_9-27-46.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

dangtrader 13-03-2018 20:29

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Any insight on Fed meeting next week?

HFblogNews 14-03-2018 11:36

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 14th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...14_9-04-25.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields traded mostly steady to lower as stock markets headed south. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.043%, the Chinese 10-year underperformed and yields are up 0.9 bp, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 2.839%. A fresh shakeup in the Trump administration rekindled trade war concerns and worries about geopolitical risks and weighed on stock markets, which headed broadly south in Asia, after already retreating on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.45%, the Nikkei was down -0.87% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.32% and -0.225 respectively and the ASX 200 lost -0.66%. U.S. stock futures are also heading south and oil prices are little changed at USD 60.69 per barrel. In Europe today, German Feb HICP inflation confirmed at 1.2% y/y as expected, with prices up 0.4% m/m. The breakdown confirmed that the dip from 1.4% y/y in January was mainly due to lower energy and food price inflation. This ties in with the steady core inflation reading in the preliminary Eurozone HICP rate and backs views that despite these monthly variations inflation is continuing to trend higher, especially with wage deals looking quite strong in Germany.

FX Update:: USDJPY has remained heavy, settling around 106.50 after a short-lived lift to an intraday high at 106.74 ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier. Broader dollar softness is at play, with market narratives pointing to political uncertainty following Trump’s dual sackings of his foreign secretary, Tillerson, and an aide, John McEntee — the latter over alleged “serious financial crimes.” The yen has been trading mixed in narrow ranges versus other currencies. BoJ Governor Kuroda maintained his recent re-commitment to a dovish script, saying earlier that a withdrawal from stimulus is not being considered as the 2% inflation target remains far from being achieved. The BoJ released the minutes from the January policy meeting, though to little market impact given their rear view nature (given that the central bank releases a summary sheet a week after policy meetings, and given the timeliness of recent BoJ member testimonies and communications). In data, Japan’s core machinery orders rebound by 8.2% m/m in January after a 9.3% contraction in the month prior. The data is volatile month-to-month and tends not to carry much market-impacting potential, as proved the case today.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...4-1024x707.png

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB President Draghi Speech – Due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt.

* ECB’s Praet and Constancio Speeches – Constancio and Praet is scheduled will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place.

* US PPI and Retail Sales – PPI is forecast sinking 0.1% in February, with core seen rising 0.2%. Here though, the 12-month pace should pick up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%. While not as important as the consumer price data, it could raise eyebrows. Retail sales are seen returning a healthy 0.3% or 0.4% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year.

* Crude Oil Inventories

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 15-03-2018 11:38

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 15th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...15_9-17-51.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.

FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8-1024x707.png

Main Macro Events Today

* SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty.

* US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72.

* ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...15_9-36-33.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 16-03-2018 11:05

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 16th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...16_9-31-31.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.

FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...7-1024x712.png

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Labour cost

* EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.

* US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously.


Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...16_9-35-31.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 19-03-2018 10:12

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 19th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.

United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.

Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday), the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).

Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.

Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.

The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).

Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.

Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 20-03-2018 09:37

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 20th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...20_9-10-02.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.

FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8-1024x708.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures.

* German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected.

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...20_9-25-32.png


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 21-03-2018 10:32

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 21st March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...21_9-14-26.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.

FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...9-1024x702.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y

* Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln.

* FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4.

* FOMC Press Conference

* RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...21_9-31-31.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 22-03-2018 11:17

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 22nd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...22_9-38-50.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.

FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...4-1024x700.png

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.

* UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.

* BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.

* US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...22_9-39-10.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 23-03-2018 13:13

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 23rd March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...23_9-27-22.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.

FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...2-1024x704.png

Main Macro Events Today

* US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.

* CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.

* CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.


Support and Resistance levels

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 26-03-2018 12:58

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 26th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

The pendulum has swung back wickedly to trade politics after President Trump announced tariffs on $50 bln in Chinese tech and telecom imports. In turn, the Chinese retaliated on $3 bln in largely agricultural items, but hinted at more to come, including mulling “all options” when asked about ongoing Treasury purchases. Perhaps once the full scope of our tangled economic relationship is laid bare, both sides will have a greater appreciation for its complexity and benefits, while addressing its evident shortcomings as well. Meanwhile, Trump also grudgingly signed off on a $1.3 tln budget deal, which boosted military spending among other things, but didn’t have everything on his wish list.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will connect the dots the week after the Fed lifted theirs, starting with updates (Monday) on the Chicago Fed national activity index for February and the March Dallas Fed index. January Case Shiller home prices may slip (Tuesday) to 204.3 from 204.5, while consumer confidence is expected to hold up near 130.00 in March from 130.8 in February and the Richmond Fed index may sink to 20 in March from 28. MBA mortgage applications are due (Wednesday), followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$73.6 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.8% vs 2.5% (Wednesday), along with NAR pending home sales and EIA energy inventories. Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week (Thursday), with personal income forecast to rise 0.5% in February and spending seen +0.3% core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 (Thursday), while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March. U.S. Markets will be closed for Good Friday.

Canada: The highlight is January GDP (Thursday), expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.1% gain in December. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is projected to rise 0.1% in February (m/m, nsa) after a 0.3% gain in January as the dip in gasoline prices restrains growth in the index. January average weekly earnings (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the identical 0.2% gain in December. The Bank of Canada has been of the view that some slack remains in the labour market while the economy is operating at full capacity. The CFIB’s Business Barometer survey of small and medium business sentiment for March is due Thursday. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. The next event is the release of the Business Outlook Survey on April 9, followed by the rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report on April 18. Canada’s stocks and bond markets are closed for Good Friday, March 30.

Europe: Europe will start to hunker down going into the long Easter Holiday weekend, but the calendar still holds key data releases. The German HICP (Thursday) firming back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y, while the French rate (Friday) is seen lifting to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, the Italian rate (Friday) to 0.8% y/y from 0.5%. This should leave the preliminary March Eurozone rate, due April 4, to come back to around 1.4/1.5%. This is still far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2%, but officials are more confident now that underlying inflation has turned a corner and is on the way higher.

This is partly a reflection of increasingly tight labor markets, especially in Germany, where the official jobless number (Thursday) is likely to dip by a further -15K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment. PMIs, ZEW and Ifo surveys all declined in March and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance. Still, while there is some disagreement over the degree of slack remaining in the economy, and how urgent is the need to phase out of exceptional measures, it is still pretty clear that the ECB is preparing to end net asset purchases by the end of the year. Officials don’t seem in a hurry though to commit to such a step just yet, however, and if volatility remains high, Draghi could delay a clarification of the future of QE until July, still well ahead of the end of the current QE schedule in September.The data calendar meanwhile also includes Eurozone M3 numbers, German import price inflation and consumer confidence as well as Italian confidence data and industrial orders and finally French consumer spending numbers.

UK: The calendar brings, in chronologic order, mortgage lending data (Monday), the monthly Nationwide house price indicator and the latest CBI distributive trades survey (both Wednesday), and Gfk consumer confidence, the third and final release of Q4 GDP data, Q4 current account figures, and monthly lending data from the BoE (all on Thursday). From these, the CBI retail survey expected to show a realised sales headline of 7 in March, after 8 in the month prior, the Gfk consumer confidence to remain unchanged a -10 in March, and GDP growth to remain unrealised at 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y. In-line outcomes would not likely impact sterling markets much. The markets will be closed Friday through Monday for Easter.

Japan: In Japan, growth has shown signs of slowing after the better than expected Q4 GDP pace of 1.6%. And the erosion in business sentiment could portend further slippage, especially on regional trade worries as well as the firmer JPY. Additionally, the stronger yen could thwart the BoJ’s reflation attempt. This week’s data will help clarify the outlook. February services PPI (Tuesday) is expected to dip to a 0.6% y/y pace from 0.7%. February retail sales (Thursday) are seen climbing to a 1.0% y/y clip from 0.4% for large retailers, and to 2.0% y/y from 1.5% overall. Tokyo March CPI (Friday) is pencilled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y overall, and 1.0% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. February unemployment rate (Friday) is forecast at a steady 2.4%, while the job offers/seekers ratio likely remained steady at 1.59. February preliminary industrial production (Friday) is expected to bounce to a 6.0% y/y rate from -6.6%, though a lot of the swing could be a function of Lunar New Year distortions. February housing starts (Friday) are estimated to have improved to a -6.0% y/y pace after plunging to -13.2% previously (perhaps on poor weather). February construction orders are also due Friday.

Australia: The data calendar has private sector credit (Thursday), expected to improve to a 5.0% y/y pace in February from 4.9% in January. The usually busy Reserve Bank of Australia has nothing on the docket this week. The next event is the April 3 board meeting, which no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 27-03-2018 10:11

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 27th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...27_9-22-27.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.0 bp at 0.528% in early trade, vs a 1.5 bp gain in 10-year JGB yields. Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp, but have also lifted from the lows seen during the Asian session, as stock markets bounced back in Asia. Peripheral bonds are outperforming as risk appetite improves and European stock futures are also rallying. The GER30 future is up more than 1.8% as risk appetite strengthens amid hopes that U.S. posturing on tariffs is primarily a tool to gain trade concessions and won’t trigger and all out trade war. Still, volatility is likely to remain high and sentiment fragile which is underpinning volatility on markets. The data calendar picks up today. Released at the start of the session German import price inflation came in weaker than expected. Spanish HICP numbers will also be watched closely and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment is expected to dip again.

FX Update: The yen posted fresh lows today, losing ground for a second straight day amid a backdrop of reviving risk appetite and associated gains in global stock markets. USDJPY clocked a three-session high of 105.75 in Tokyo, about a 35 pip gain on the New York closing levels, putting in some further distance from the 16-month low seen on Friday at 104.64. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action. There was no data or other news of market-moving note today. A belief in market narratives that Trump’s protectionism push will be more bluff than buster, with initial grandiose threats giving way to watering down, exemptions and negotiation, have been underpinning stock markets this week, and seeing the yen’s safe haven premium unwind. Elsewhere, the dollar has largely consolidated near lows posted yesterday against the euro and many other currencies. EURUSD has been settled near 1.2450 after yesterday seeing a six-week high at 1.2461. Cable has seen a similar action. AUDUSD and NZDUSD managed fresh highs before backing off. USDCAD edged out a two-session low at 1.2828.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...3-1024x704.png

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone ESI – is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance on the phasing out of QE. Bundesbank President Weidmann may be pushing for a firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, but Draghi and Praet seem less in a hurry and with markets still jittery officials could well wait until July before clarifying the future of QE beyond September.

* CB Consumer Confidence – is expected to hold up near 130.40 in March from 130.8 in February.

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...27_9-37-06.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 28-03-2018 09:55

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 28th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...28_9-00-12.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year yields are down in opening trade, in tandem with global trends, as long bonds are underpinned by a fresh bout of risk aversion and a sell off in stocks. Fresh selling of tech stocks sparked a sharp decline on Wall Street yesterday, that was followed by a broad correction in Asia and European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures. The GER30 future lost more than -0.9% in opening trade. The 10-year Bund yield has dipped back below the 0.5% mark, the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated below 2.8% during the Asian session after declining sharply during U.S. hours, the 10-year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.027%. Month and quarter end cash flows, redemptions and sizeable index extensions in Europe will continue to underpin peripherals in particular and could help to keep Eurozone spreads narrow despite the flare up in risk aversion. Meanwhile German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the U.K. has the CBI distributive trade survey as well as BoE Agent reports of business conditions and Italian orders and sales numbers for the industrial sector.

FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses have settled lower versus yesterday’s highs, with the Japanese currency finding renewed safe haven demand as Wall Street, specifically the tech-sector, led a fresh global stock market wobble. News that the Trump trade team may be planning to use emergency laws via CFIUS to clamp down on China investment into the U.S. also set a negative tone. Investors will remain focused on developments in the tech sector and on Trump’s protectionist policies, which in turn will have a bearing on the yen. The visit to Beijing by North Korea’s Kim has been greeted as a positive in terms of further allaying geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsular, though evidently hasn’t been sufficient tonic to quell the risk-off vibe in markets. BoJ’s Kuroda repeated, for the umpteenth time, that the central bank will persist with “powerful” monetary stimulus, while Japanese PM Abe said that a delay in the planned sales tax hike would be considered in the scenario of a financial shock. The Nikkei 225 equity index finished 2% for the worse. USDJPY, which has been trending lower since early January, and technically remains in this downtrend, has resistance at 105.94-95.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8-1024x708.png

Main Macro Events Today

* US Final GDP & Good Trade Balance – MBA mortgage applicationsis due today as well, followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$72.5 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.7% vs 2.5%.

* Crude Oil Inventories –

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...28_9-40-37.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 29-03-2018 10:11

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 29th March 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...29_9-06-40.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is up 0.8 bp at 0.505% in early trade, amid an overall mixed picture on global bond markets. Peripherals are slightly outperforming in Europe, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.026%, but down from earlier highs, the 10-year Treasury yield is up from lows and unchanged at 2.78%. European stock futures struggled initially, but are now broadly higher, after a mixed session in Asia. Traders remain cautious after the sell off in tech stocks and amid the surge in risk appetite, but with the long Easter holiday weekend looming things may quieten down somewhat. This is also the last trading day for Bunds this month and this quarter and after sizeable index extensions in EGBs may have underpinned peripheral bonds in particular, the effect is likely to wane now, although upcoming redemption should keep the ECB in the market. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence surprised on the upside, while house price data disappointed. The calendar still has key German inflation data as well as German labour market numbers. U.K. lending data and the third reading of U.K. Q4 GDP.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer in relatively quiet trade into what will be long holiday weekend for many major centres. EURUSD has settled in the lower 1.23s after tipping to a low of 1.2399 late yesterday. USDJPY ebbed back to the mid 106.0s from the upper 106.00s, partly on the softer dollar and partly on yen gains. A mixed session across Asian stock markets spoke of a continued vexed sentiment, with FAANG stocks on Wall Street a prevailing source of bearishness. Japan’s finance minister, Aso, attempted to walk the yen lower by arguing that yield differentials warrant higher levels in USDJPY.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...9-1024x708.png

Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment – the official jobless number is likely to dip by a further -15K (, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.4%. German wage growth is indeed picking up, but the doves at the ECB argue that with more people entering the labor market, official figures underestimate the wider level of underemployment.

* German March HICP – German HICP expected to firm back to 1.6% y/y from 1.2% y/y in the previous month, which is in line with consensus and partly based on the assumption that the earlier timing of Easter this year lifted holiday related prices in March rather than April, and thus added positive base effects.

* Canada GDP – GDP expected to expand 0.1% in January (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in December. The risk is to the downside in January, as manufacturing shipments contracted and home sales tumbled. The 1.1% tumble in manufacturing shipment volumes during January is a heavy weight on the January GDP outlook.

* US data – Initial jobless claims may dip 5k to 224k for the March 24 week, with personal income forecast to rise 0.4% in February and spending seen +0.3% (median 0.2%); core PCE prices may remain at a lowly 1.5% y/y for the fifth consecutive time. Chicago PMI is set to rise to 62.0 in March from 61.9 , while final Michigan sentiment may hold at 102.0 in March.

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...29_9-35-28.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 02-04-2018 10:29

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 2nd April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

It was a rough and tumble Q1 for stock and bond bulls as global asset markets suffered losses of varying degrees. The Dow and S&P declined in the January to March period for the first time since Q2 2015. The pain was exacerbated given the stellar Q4 results. The three-month MSCI All Country Index was off as well. While there were various explanations for the declines in asset values, less accommodative monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and signs of slowing economic momentum certainly featured. This week should be a consolidative one ahead of key data and events, and the advent of the Q1 earnings season in one-week time. We believe still-solid fundamentals, including tight labor markets and strong confidence measures point to a rebound in equities and a bounce in bond yields.

United States: The U.S. markets managed to rebound on Thursday, the last day of Q1, supported by month- and quarter-end flows. There was also some easing in trade tensions, a better than expected Q4 GDP result, and signs of health consumer and business confidence. Fed fears have receded too since Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy Report, and as inflation pressures have ebbed too. Cautious trading should characterize this week as the markets assess recent actions, while looking ahead to the jobs report (Friday). Fed Chairman Powell’s comments (Friday) on the economic outlook will be eagerly awaited too. March nonfarm payrolls (Friday) will be the usual highlight. The manufacturing and services ISMs will also be key for the economic outlook heading into Q2. The manufacturing index for March (Monday) is seen slipping to 60.0 after the unexpected jump to 60.8 in February, a 13-year high. The March services index (Wednesday) should drop to 59.0 from February’s 59.5 and the 12-year high of 59.9 from January. Other confidence measures for March have shrugged off the turmoil thanks to buoyant optimism regarding future growth. March auto sales (Tuesday) will contribute importantly to the spending outlook as well. Also on tap this week are February construction spending (Monday), the ADP survey of private payrolls (Wednesday), February factory orders (Wednesday), and February trade (Thursday).

Fedspeak will be a focal point as the markets again look to debate the rate trajectory with fundamentals coming back into view — will the Fed hike the three times projected by the dots, or will they go only one more time, or three more times this year. All eyes will be on Chairman Powell who speaks on the economic outlook (Friday at 13:30 ET). His comments and the morning’s jobs report, will help give the markets big directional guideposts. His pragmatic outlook from his Monetary Policy Report, along with some easing in inflation numbers, helped soothe market fears of a more hawkish FOMC.

Canada: The Canadian calendar this week features March employment (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 25.0k gain in total jobs following the 15.4k gain in February. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 5.8%, a 40-year low. The trade deficit (Thursday) is expected to widen to -C$2.1 bln in February from -C$1.9 bln in January. The Markit manufacturing PMI is due Monday, while the Ivey PMI is scheduled for a Friday release.

Europe: It’s another holiday shortened week with most European markets still closed on Monday for the Easter holidays. Traders will welcome the break after a pretty stressful month, and quarter, that saw a surge in volatility, along with a drop in equity prices and an uptick in Gilt and Bund yields. But, the start of the new quarter is a chance for markets to settle down somewhat. Geopolitical risks have eased slightly, there is less concern of an all-out trade war, while in Europe there is more clarity on Brexit. Still, tech giants will remain under a cloud and global central banks remain on course to remove stimulus. The ECB has already started to shift the goal post to rate hike prospects for next year, which pretty much makes the phasing out of net asset purchases this year a done deal. Yet, Draghi may wait until July before finally committing, and by then another short QE program to phase out the current EUR 30 bln may already be enough to keep the markets happy if he delivers it with a dovish guidance on rates. Still, that 2019 will be the year when rates clearly lift off is increasingly certain and volatility may remain high as markets adjust to the new normal.

This week’s data highlight is the preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation reading for March (Wednesday), where an acceleration is expected in the headline rate to 1.4% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at the 56.6 preliminary report, and is down from the 60.6 December print. The services reading (Thursday) is projected at 55.3, and is off of the 58.0 high from January. These would leave the composite (Thursday) at 55.5, lower than the 57.1 in February, as well as the 58.8 January high. Despite the slippage, the numbers are still pointing to healthy levels of expansion. German manufacturing orders (Thursday) should rebound from the dip in February, while industrial production (Friday) is seen rising 0.1% m/m, after a drop of -0.1% m/m in January. The overall picture is still that of slightly slowing growth momentum as the output gap starts to close, but gradually improving underlying inflation, the combination of which will leave the ECB on course to phase out QE this year.

UK: London markets will return on Tuesday following the four-day Easter weekend. The calendar is quiet this week, highlighted by the release of the Markit PMI surveys for March on Tuesday, and the construction PMI (Wednesday) to ebb to a 51.0 reading after 51.4 in the month prior. The services PMI (Thursday) expected to slip to 54.0 (from 54.5. As-expected data shouldn’t have much bearing on BoE policy expectations. Sterling markets are factoring about 80% odds for a 25 bp rate hike at the May Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which would coincide with the central bank’s next release of its quarterly inflation report.

Japan: The March Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 54.3 (the March preliminary reading was 53.2) versus the 54.1 final February reading. March auto sales are also due Tuesday. February personal income and PCE (Friday), with the latter forecast slowing to 0.5% y/y, partly due to bad weather, from 2.0% previously.

China: The March services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 54.9 from 54.7.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to maintain the current 1.50% rate setting, alongside a statement that is consistent with an eventual rate hike. The RBA expected to remain on hold well into this year, as growth and inflation gradually improve. The data calendar has retail sales (Wednesday), seen rising 0.4% in February after the 0.1% gain in January. Building approvals (also Wednesday) are projected to fall 8.0% in February after a 17.1% surge in January. The trade surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to A$0.6 bln in February from the A$1.1 bln surplus in January.

New Zealand: the data and events calendars are blank. The Bank held rates steady at 1.75% in March and maintained that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 03-04-2018 11:23

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 3rd April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...03_8-48-35.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.8 bp at 0.484% in early trade, amid a broad dip in Eurozone long yields and in tandem with a -1.5 bp decline in 10-year JGB yields. The start of the new quarter didn’t bring an improvement in stock market sentiment and Eurozone stock futures are selling off in catch up trade, after the long Easter weekend and a fresh sell off on Wall Street yesterday that saw the NASDAQ closing with a loss of -2.74%. Asian markets also corrected further overnight, albeit less so. Treasuries are also underperforming today and the 10-year up 1.1 bp on the day at 2.741%. German retail sales at the start of the session unexpectedly declined and manufacturing PMIs out of the Eurozone and the U.K. are also expected to show waning confidence, thus adding to concerns that the recovery is fizzling out.

FX Update: The dollar majors continued to ply narrow ranges as markets returned to full force following the long weekend in European and elsewhere. EURUSD continued in a narrow range around the 1.2300 mark, and has been unmoved by unexpected weakness in German retail sales data. USDJPY lifted to a intraday high of 106.03 amid general, albeit moderate, yen softness, which occurred as stock markets in Asia pared intraday losses. This put in a little space from yesterday’s low at 105.66. Data and news developments were thin on the ground in Asia today, while market participants remain weary about trade wars and tech sector woes. All three of the major U.S. indices yesterday closed more than 10% below January highs. The RBA held its cash rate on hold at 1.50%, as had been widely anticipated, and the statement didn’t bring any surprises, largely being a repeat of the last one, noting improving growth prospects but with inflation expected to remain benign and repeating the view that any appreciation in the Australian dollar would result in a slower pick up in economic activity and inflation.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...9-1024x706.png

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone manufacturing PMI – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at the 56.6 preliminary report, and is down from the 60.6 December print.


* UK Manufacturing PMI – expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.7 after February’s 54.5.

* German Manufacturing PMI – expected to remain unchanged at 58.4.

* Fedspeeches – The dove Kashkari will be at a regional economic forum, while Governor Brainard speaks on financial stability.


Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...03_9-24-43.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

dangtrader 03-04-2018 21:29

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
What's your advice for dollar this week? Up or down?

HFblogNews 04-04-2018 12:48

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 4th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...04_9-11-08.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.501% in opening trade, still outperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which are up 0.4 bp and 0.6 bp at 2.779% and 0.021% respectively. Stock markets meanwhile fluctuated in Asia after a positive close on Wall Street, with trade tensions coming back to haunt investors.Nikkei and Topix are up 0.24% and 0.21% respectively, but trade jitters continue to hang over markets as investors await China’s response in the latest escalation of the trade tensions with the U.S. U.K. stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. futures and as the pound strengthens. GER30 and FRA40 futures meanwhile posted slight gains in opening trade. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.29 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on the preliminary reading of March HICP inflation, seen accelerating to 1.4% y/y from 1.1%. The U.K. Construction PMI as well as a German 5-year Bond auction are also due.

FX Update: The major pairings have posted limited ranges so far today. The yen saw some fresh weakness in early Asian trade, while the Aussie dollar rallied moderately on strong retail sales data out of Australia. EURUSD chopped around in the upper 1.2200s, dipping toward 1.2270 in the latest phase. Yesterday’s two-week low is at 1.2253. AUDUSD clocked an eight-day high of 0.7717 before ebbing back under 0.7700. USDJPY edged out a six-day high of 106.65 in early Tokyo and has since remained buoyant. The rebound on Wall Street yesterday initially aided the yen lower before a less certain tone in Asian stock markets, along with declines in U.S. equity index futures, seemed to halt the yen’s downside progress. The early salvos of what looks to be shaping up to be a US-Sino trade war remains a concern for investors. Beijing will reportedly be detailing its tariffs on U.S. imports later. In data, Japan’s March services PMI fell to a 50.9 reading, down from 51.7 in the previous month, and the composite PMI worked out at 51.3, down from 52.2 in February. Australian retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in February, double the median forecast, while building approvals came in near to expectations at -6.2% m/m. China’s Caixin March composite PMI sank to 51.8 from February’s 53.3.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...2-1024x702.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Construction PMI – expected to ebb to a 51.0 reading after 51.4 in the month prior.

* EU CPI & Unemployment Rate – an acceleration in the headline inflation rate is expected up to 1.4% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month, with a slight risk to the upside after higher than anticipated Italian and French numbers.Unemployment Rate anticipated to slow down a bit at 8.5% from 8.6% last month.

* ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – should drop to 208K from February’s 235K.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – is seen declining to 59.0 after the 59.5 in March and the jump to 59.9 in February.

* Crude Oil Inventories

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...04_9-38-19.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 05-04-2018 10:49

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 5th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...05_9-05-48.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.3 bp at 0.509% in opening trade, after a broad move higher in long yields across Asia. 10-year JGB yields are up 1.1 bp at 0.030%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.81%, as stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session after a late rally in the U.S. U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher, with the DAX future up 1.25% and pointing to early gains in the index, which still closed with a loss yesterday. Weaker than expected German manufacturing orders at the start of the session failed to dent optimism that an all out trade war can be avoided, although trade rhetoric will keep markets on tenterhooks and volatility high. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone and U.K. services PMIs as well as Eurozone producer prices and retail sales.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading firmer so far today, correlating with an improvement in risk appetite, with the flipside of the sentiment seeing the yen underperform moderately as the Japanese currency seeing some of its safe haven premium unwind. Japan’s Nikkie 225 closed with a 1.5% gain, while S&P futures are showing a 0.4% gain after the cash index closed out the regular session on Wall Street yesterday with a 1.2% advance. The view, or hope perhaps, is that the U.S. and China are more likely to negotiate than actually implement a trade war. The announced tariff hikes haven’t been implemented yet, and there is time in place for talks to happen. Proof will be in the pudding, however, and investors are likely to remain wary. USDJPY lifted above 107.00, logging a three-week high of 107.02. EURUSD ebbed under 1.2300, towards 1.2250, seemingly breaking free of the apparent orbit of recent sessions around the 1.2300 level. The greenback also posted gains versus the antipodean dollars and most currencies in the emerging and newly-development world.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...4-1024x704.png

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Service PMI – The services reading is projected at 55.3 and is off of the 58.0 high from January. These would leave the composite at 55.5, lower than the 57.1 in February, as well as the 58.8 January high.

* UK Service PMI – anticipated t0 to slip to 54.0 from 54.5.

* Canadian Trade Balance – The trade deficit is expected to widen to -C$2.1 bln in February from -C$1.9 bln in January. Exports are seen improving 0.5% m/m after the 2.1% drop in January. Imports are projected to expand 0.8% after a 4.3% plunge.

* US Unemployment Claims – seem at 225K from 215K last week.


Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...05_9-30-47.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 06-04-2018 10:23

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 6th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...06_9-34-47.png

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.2 bp at 0.507% in early trade, trailing Treasuries, which are down -1.8 bp at 2.814%. European stock futures are selling off, led by the German DAX future, which is down -0.9%, in the wake of a sell off in U.S. futures after Trump threatened additional USD 100 bln worth of China tariffs. China was quick to threaten retaliation, and while reports of the willingness to talk on the side of the U.S. helped to lift Asian markets off early lows, sentiment remains fragile. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.36% in the end, the ASX was unchanged at the close, while the Hang Seng outperformed in catch up trade, after coming back from the holidays. Weaker than expected German production data at the start of the session did nothing to lift sentiment, leaving markets to mull trade developments ahead of key U.S. payroll data in the PM session.

FX Update: The dollar weakened and then firmed during the pre-London open session in Asia, with markets roiled by Trump’s threat for further tariffs against China and a retaliatory pledge to fight back by Beijing before finding some solace form a Reuters report citing a U.S. official saying that Washington was willing to negotiate if China “is serious.” USDJPY recouped to the mid 107.0s after logging a low of 106.99. The pair has remained below the six-week high posted yesterday at 107.49, which capped a three-day run higher. EURUSD traded lower after posting an intraday peak at 1.2260, logging a low of 1.2227, but the pair remain above yesterday’s low at 1.2218. Asian stocks lifted out of intraday lows, though European and U.S. equity index futures are firmly down, with Eurostoxx futures down 0.8% and S&P 500 futures off by over 1%. The offshore CNY extended lower, making $6.3043 today, with the 0.7% loss this week in the Chinese currency marking the biggest weekly decline since last October.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8-1024x705.png

Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Employment Data – the employment report, is expected to show a 25.0k in March after the 15.4k gain in February and 88.0k plunge in January. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a 40-year low 5.8%. Average hourly wages are projected to gain 0.3% in March (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% gain in February, boosting the annual growth rate to 3.4% in March from 3.1%. That would be firmest annual growth rate since the matching pace in November of 2015.

* US NFP data– 193K increase is anticipated after the stellar 313k February surge. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 4.0%.

* US Average Hourly Earnings –Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% after the tepid 0.1% prior gain, which calmed inflation anxiety that followed the strong 0.3% and 0.4% respective gains in January and December.

* BOE Gov Carney & Fed Chair Powell Speeches

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...06_9-35-04.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 09-04-2018 10:15

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 9th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...ad-Picture.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

It was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisers. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to lump on another $100 bln tariffs to the $50 bln already on the table. Fed Chairman Powell remained bullish on the economy in his speech on the outlook, suggesting “gradualism” remained intact, while in Q&A he felt it was premature to draw implications from the tariff threats either for inflation or growth.

United States: The calendar will home back in on inflation stats for March in a timely fashion, hot on the heels of the 0.3% uptick on average hourly earnings embedded in the March payrolls report. PPI is forecast (Tuesday) rising 0.2% in March, though the annual pace will speed up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y. The core PPI is seen rising 0.2% as well versus 0.2% previously, with a steady 2.5% y/y. Wholesale sales are projected (Tuesday) to increase 0.6% in February vs -1.1% in January, while inventories are seen 0.2% firmer. The MBA mortgage market report is out (Wednesday), along with overall March CPI expected to edge up 0.1% vs 0.2%, with core CPI seen up 0.2%, as was the case in February. Annual rates should move a tad higher too, with the headline pace seen at 2.4% from 2.2% y/y, while the core rate firms to 2.1% from 1.8%. This will be the first 2-handle since March 2017, but it won’t trigger a response from the FOMC as CPI is not the Fed’s preferred measure. The Treasury budget deficit (Wednesday) may widen to $186 bln in March from $176 bln year-ago levels. Import prices are forecast (Thursday) to increase 0.4% in March versus February’s 0.4%, while export prices may rise 0.2%, the same as in February. Initial jobless claims are presumed to correct back down 17k to 225k for the week ended April 7 (Thursday). Rounding out the week (Friday) are Michigan sentiment and the Fed’s JOLTS job openings.

Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes will be highlights this week after the “gradualist” tone from Chairman Powell in Friday’s speech set the stage for steady policy near term. There are several Fedspeakers this week, but none are voters. Hawk Kaplan will be in Beijing and will be speaking Monday, The dove Kashkari will do another moderated Q&A Thursday. Rosengren, Bullard, and Kaplan will also be on the wires on Friday the 13th. The FOMC minutes to Powell’s first meeting in March as Chairman could be interesting.

Earnings season kicks off again from Thursday – Fastenal and BlackRock and then a rash of financial firms — Citigroup, First Republic Bank, Infosys, JP Morgan Chase, PNC Financial, Wells Fargo on Friday. Expectations are for strong results, and possible upside potential as the S&P 500 and the DJIA30 ended the week close to their 200 day moving averages.

Canada: The calendar is headlined by the BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey (Monday), expected to reveal some slippage in business sentiment, a tighter capacity backdrop, increased labour shortages but still well contained inflation expectations. In other words, the report will be supportive of no change in the 1.25% rate setting next week. Housing starts (Monday) are projected to fall to 220.0k in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values are expected to dip 1.0% in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The new housing price index is seen falling 0.1% in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 3.0% m/m decline anticipated, as the rate of contraction moderates after the -6.5% fall in February and record 14.5% plunge in January.

Europe: Light calendar with mainly final inflation data for March, which are unlikely to hold major surprises. Expect HICP rates to be confirmed at 1.7% for France (Thursday), 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), 1.5% for German HICP (Friday) and 1.3% for Spain (Friday), which should leave the Eurozone HICP (due the following week) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February. German trade data for February (Monday), as well as Eurozone trade which could well attract more interest than usual amid the ongoing trade tensions. Expectations are for a slight rise in German exports of 0.2% m/m, after the -0.5% m/m drop in January.

ECBspeak will be closely monitored. Officials are likely to continue to strike a balance with hawkish comments from Weidmann (Thursday) countered by softer tones from other central bankers scheduled to speak, including Draghi (Wednesday) and Constancio (Monday). The ECB also publishes the minutes of the March policy meeting, when the central bank decided to finally remove the easing bias on rates from the policy guidance.

Japan: The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,000 bln from 607.4 bln previously. March consumer confidence (Monday) is seen improving to 44.6 from 44.3. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 4.0% m/m from up 8.2%, while March PPI is forecast to slip to 1.9% y/y from 2.5%. The impact of the firmer JPY on inflation was likely offset by firmer crude oil prices. March bank loan figures are due Wednesday and finally a speech for the BOJ’s Kuroda is set for Thursday.

UK: Fundamental leads have been blurred by inclement weather in the last data month, which largely accounted for the big misses in last week’s March PMI survey outcomes. The calendar this week kicks off with the BRC retail sales report for March (Monday), with expectations of a 0.1% headline decline in the same-store figure. Industrial production for February is also up (Wednesday), with expectations of rises of 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. respectively). Trade data for February is also due (also Wednesday), where forecasts are for a GBP 11.9 deficit in the visible goods balance.

China: Release March loan growth and new yuan loans (likely Tuesday), with the former seen at an unchanged 12.8% y/y rate, and the latter at CNY 1,000 bln from 839.3 bln previously. March CPI (Wednesday) likely slipped to a 2.5% y/y pace after almost doubling to 2.9% in February from 1.5% in January. March PPI (Wednesday) is forecast at 3.3% y/y from 3.7%. The March trade report (Friday) will be of interest given all the fuss over trade and tariffs, though it won’t show any real effects. It should reveal a narrowed surplus of $29.0 bln from $33.7 bln in February.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “Regional Variation in a National Economy.” The Financial Stability Review is due Friday. Economic data is thin this week, but has housing investment (Thursday), expected to dip 0.5% in February after the 1.1% decline in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 10-04-2018 09:38

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 10th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...10_8-58-27.jpg

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Conciliatory words on trade from China’s President Xi Jinping, who pledged greater openness in sectors from banking to auto manufactures while warning against a return to a “Cold War mentality” helped to calm nerves and underpinned stocks, while weighing on safe haven assets, especially in the U.S.. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.025%, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.6 bp and back above the 2.8% mark. Stock markets meanwhile have moved broadly higher, Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, the Hang Seng outperformed again and gained 1.12% so far and the CSI 300 is up 0.48%. U.S. stock futures are rallying and up more than 1% across, Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ, with the latter outperforming. Oil prices also benefited from the risk on environment and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. An all round risk on environment, then, at least for now.

FX Update: USDJPY edged out a two-session high following a fresh bout of general yen weakness. Chinese President Xi’s keynote speech earlier mollified investor anxieties by de-ratcheting the trade war rhetoric by pledging that Chinese economy will open up and will lower import tariffs on vehicles, and although details were limited, this managed to lift stock markets in Asia, along with U.S. and European stock index futures. The Nikkei 225 gained by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures were showing a 1.1% advance. The yen weakened against this backdrop as safe haven positions unwound. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 107.24 before settling slightly off here. The pair has support at 106.77-80.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...3-1024x463.jpg

Main Macro Events Today

* USA PPI – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 2.6% 3 from 2.5% last time. MoM figures are expected to see the headline slip to 0.1% from 0.2% and the key Core figure remain unchanged at 0.2%.

* CAD Housing Starts – Are expected to fall to 220.0k unit pace in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values, also due Tuesday, are expected to dip 1.0% (m/m, sa) in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The permits and starts reports lead a full week of housing data. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen falling 0.1% (m/m, sa) in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 18.0% y/y decline anticipated in March following the 16.9% y/y drop in February.


Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...10_9-28-59.jpg

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 17-04-2018 11:22

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 17th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...17_8-35-53.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stocks in Asia traded narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up a mere 0.02%, the ASX up 0.07% and Hang Seng and CSI 300, which tanked yesterday, underperforming once again and down -0.40% and -0.87% respectively, despite as expected GDP numbers out of China. China’s GDP grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 following the identical 6.8% y/y rise in Q4. GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures as comments from Praet seemed to confirm that the ECB is not ready to commit to an end date for QE just year. UK100 futures meanwhile are heading south ahead of labour market data. The calendar today also has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to correct further.Trade jitters and geopolitical risks continue to hang over markets and 10-year JGB yields are little changed at 0.30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield up 0.6 bp at 2.832%, as U.S. stock futures move higher.

FX Update: A dollar softening theme has been prevailing, with EURUSD printing a three-week high just above 1.2380 and USDJPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUDUSD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBA’s minutes to its April policy meeting, which was deemed as showing board members as being relatively less optimistic on the economy than before, helping cement the view that the central bank will likely be on hold through to 2019. There was a mix of other news, including as-expected GDP data out of China, of 6.8% y/y in Q1, an unexpected downward revision in the final release of Japanese February industrial production, to 0.0% m/m from the preliminary estimate of 4.1% m/m, and a report that North and South Korea are apparently set on discussing an official end to the war. Market participants are also gearing up for the meeting between Trump and Abe this week, which is expected to be conciliatory in tone as Trump’s face-to-face meetings with world leaders tends to be, especially with his softening tone on trade with China and NAFTA. Cable has punched out a fresh post-Brexit vote high above 1.4350, today marking the seventh consecutive higher high with markets expecting a perky wages reading in today’s labour market report, which along with tomorrow’s inflation data should seal expectations for the BoE to hike in May.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...17_9-32-18.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) –

* German ZEW – expected to fall further, with heightened market volatility likely adding to the error margin for the forecasts. A reading of 2 in April is expected, down from 5.1 in March, while median forecast predicts a dip into negative territory, which would indicate that pessimists outnumber optimists. Anything short of a major surprise to the upside will add to concerns that growth momentum is already starting to slow down, while the ECB is mulling exit steps.

* Canadian Manufacturing Sales – February manufacturing is seen rebounding 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 1.0% drop in January.

* US Industrial Production – a 0.4% gain after surging 0.9% in February. Capacity utilization is projected t 77.9% from 77.7%. Risk to production is to the upside, however, given strong factory employment, and still robust manufacturing ISM and PMI data.

* FOMC Member Williams, Harker and Bostic Speak, along with Fed’s Quarles

Support and Resistance levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...10_9-28-59.jpg

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 18-04-2018 09:39

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 18th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...18_8-34-20.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: The recovery on global stock markets continued during the Asian session, after a good start to the U.S. earnings season. Bonds rallied in Asia, and China’s 10-year yield dropped more than 14 bp after the People’s Bank of china cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks to bolster credit amid a crackdown on shadow lending. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.0275, while 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 p at 2.840%. Early signs that the Trump-Abe summit won’t lead to new trade demands from the U.S. helped to bolster confidence and the Nikkei is up 1.585, the ASX 200 0.29%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 0.87% and 0.47%. China’s automakers were hit by plans to allow foreign companies to take full ownership of their local ventures. U.S. futures are posting further gains. Oil prices are higher and WTI future is trading at USD 67.12 per barrel.Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is expected to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y, while U.K. CPI is seen holding steady at 2.7%.

FX Update: Narrow ranges have mostly prevailed into the London interbank open, with most of the main dollar pairings holding well within their respective ranges from yesterday. This has been seen amid an ongoing recovery rally in global stock markets as trade and geopolitical concerns continued to abate. EURUSD has held a narrow range in the upper 1.2300s, below the three-week high that was seen yesterday at 1.2414. Cable and AUDUSD have been similarly directionally challenged. USDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising some 30 pips in making a peak of 107.38, breaching yesterday’s peak on route but falling short of Monday’s peak by 1 pip.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8-1024x716.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior.

* UK CPI – CPI expected to remain unchanged 2.7%, above the BoE’s 2.0% target.

* Eurozone CPI – widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February, but this is largely due to base effects from energy and food prices, as well as the earlier timing of Easter.

* BoC Statement & Conference – projections remain for no change to the 1.25% rate setting, along with a cautiously constructive growth outlook salted with trade uncertainty. An as-expected outing would maintain the base-case for further gradual rate hikes this year. The BoC will also release the Monetary Policy Report.

* Fed’s Quarles, & William Dudley Speeches

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 19-04-2018 11:57

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 19th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...19_8-52-46.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market stabilisation continued in Asia and volatility is receding as optimism in the global growth outlook returns following a cautiously optimistic Beige Book from the Fed.Fed’s Beige Book said economic activity remained “modest” to “moderate” across all 12 Districts. That’s pretty much been the characterization for several years, and those were the adverbs that described many sectors. Energy companies are underpinned by rising oil prices as inventory levels fall. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are up from earlier lows, but still down -0.4 bp on the day at 2.869%, while 10-year JGB yields rose 0.3 bp to 0.031%. Elsewhere in Asia long yields are also higher as equity markets recover. The Nikkei gained 0.23%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied a further 1.3% and 1.1% amid rumours of state intervention in China. U.S. stock futures are also in the green, with NASDAQ futures outperforming. The WTI future is trading at USD 68.94 per barrel.Today’s data calendar has Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as U.K. retail sales numbers.

FX Update: The dollar has been trading near net steady so far today, while yen weakness remained a theme. EURUSD has settled in the upper 1.2300s, holding below the three-week high seen earlier in the week at 1.2414. USDJPY edged out a three-session high at 107.51, EURJPY a two-month high, just above 133.00, while AUDJPY managed a to post a four-session peak. The generally more risk positive backdrop has continued to weigh on the yen as residual safe haven premium unwinds and markets return focus to bullish fundamental arguments for USDJPY (specifically yield differentials, which have markedly gapped in the dollar’s favour this year). Following the Trump-Abe meeting this week, Trump said he wants a bilateral trade deal with Japan, and there was reportedly no discussion of currency levels between the two leaders. On the trade front, China’s commerce ministry repeated today that it is prepared to respond to U.S. trade threats. The Australian dollar came under pressure following a miss in Australian employment data before quickly turning higher. AUDUSD lifted out of its 0.7773 low to post a five-week high at 0.7812.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...5-1024x719.png

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior.

* US Unemployment Claims – expected to fall slightly at 230K from 233K reported last week.

* US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – April’s Philly Fed index is expected to slip to 21.0 after falling 3.5 points to 22.3 in March.

* FOMC Brainard, UK’s MPC Cunliffe, Fed’s Quarles, & FOMC Mester Speak

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...19_9-26-03.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 20-04-2018 11:01

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 20th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...20_8-07-02.jpg

FX News Today

European Outlook: SNB’s Jordan sees no need for change in policy. The Swiss central bank President told Bloomberg last night that “there is no need to do anything regarding monetary policy at this morning”. Speaking after the CHF broke through the 1.20 per euro mark for the first time since the SNB gave up that ceiling, Jordan said the franc’s drop goes in the “right direction” but added that the currency is still considered a haven and the situation “fragile” and prone to change. So the SNB “remains very prudent” and “convinced that the current monetary policy is still necessary”. Further confirmation that the SNB is firmly on hold while watching also the ECB’s move very closely. If and when the ECB finally starts to reign in its support it will also increase the room for the SNB to manoeuvre. Bloomberg polls predict the first rate hike from the SNB in the last quarter of 2019.

US Updates: Revealed a Philly Fed rise to 23.2 in April and a 1k initial claims downtick to a slightly-elevated 232k in the BLS survey week of April. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed beat estimates with only a small April drop to 59.7 from a 45-year high of 61.8 in March, thus outperforming Monday’s Empire State where we saw an April drop to 15.8 from 22.5 with an ISM-adjusted decline to 56.2 from 57.3. For claims, the trend remains tight despite modestly higher readings over the last three weeks, as the moving Easter holiday and school breaks often distort April claims. We still expect a 210k April nonfarm payroll rise. The weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index hit a third consecutive new cycle-high in mid-April of 58.1, and leading indicators rose 0.3% in March to leave a 22-month stretch without a decline, and a rise in the 6-month annualized reading to a lofty 8.8%.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...6-1024x460.jpg

Main Macro Events Today

* CAD Retail sales – Expectations are for an improvement of 0.5% in February after the 0.3% gain in January. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected at +0.3% after the 0.9% gain in January. The CPI’s gasoline price index edged 0.7% lower in February after jumping 3.2% in January following a 3.3% drop in December. % m/m inline with expectations

* CAD CPI – Expect March CPI, due Friday, to expand 0.4% (m/m) after the 0.6% surge in February. The annual growth rate is projected at 2.5% in March, up from the 2.2% y/y pace seen in February that was the fasted rate of CPI growth since the 2.4% pace in October of 2014. The BoC took the recent CPI climb in stride, viewing it as in line with their outlook. The temporary factors that had been restraining inflation, the Bank explained, “have largely dissipated, as expected.” The close to 2% core inflation rates are consistent with an “economy operating with little slack.” Inflation in 2018 is expected to be modestly higher than they expected in January, but due to the transitory impact of higher gas prices and recent minimum wage increases. See the preview.

* IMF Speeches – Saunders (BOE) Weidmann (Buba) Williams (FOMC)

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...19_9-26-03.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 23-04-2018 07:40

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 23rd April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

FX News Today

There’s a lot on this week’s calendar to be digested, including a mass of earnings, heavy Treasury supply, and important data releases. There’s a lot of data, and especially sentiment numbers, that support healthy economic growth ahead. Fiscal stimulus should also be very supportive, not to mention rising global growth (remember the IMF forecasts growth at 3.9% for this year and next). There are a couple of important caveats to that outlook, however. One is the maturity of the U.S. expansion (106 months). It’s getting quite long in the tooth and next month will be the second longest on record, beating the boom in the 1960s. And if it survives until next year, it will become the longest expansion on record. And while we don’t expect a trade war, it is a risk.

United States: Earnings will be the focal point most of the week as all sectors of the S&P will be well represented from key companies. With almost one-fifth of the S&P having reported, 79% have beaten estimates. As for supply, there’s over $230 bln in bills and short dated coupons on tap. And for data, it’s the Advance Q1 GDP and ECI (both Friday) that will take top billing, but there’s also a number of housing, manufacturing, and confidence reports. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely declined to 126.0 in April, from March’s 127.7. As for Michigan sentiment (Friday), a final April reading of 98.0 is expected, little-changed from the preliminary. Though expected to slip in April, both sentiment indicators remain at lofty levels. Confidence reached a 17-year high of 130.0 in February and the Michigan March reading was at a 14-year high. Durable goods orders (Thursday) are forecast rising 1.5% in March on top of the 3.0% jump in February, with shipments and inventories also expected to be up strongly at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. March existing home sales (Monday) should rise 0.7% to a 5.580 mln rate, following a strong 3.0% gain in February to 5.540 mln. New home sales (Tuesday) are also expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February.

Canada: The week in Canada begins with an appearance by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins in front of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (Monday). The opening statement will be available on the BoC’s site at 15:30 ET. As always, central bank enthusiast can listen in on the Parliament of Canada’s website. The Parliament appearance will presumably reiterate the outlook presented in the announcement and MPR. Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday.

As for data, wholesale shipment values (Monday) are expected to improve 0.5% in February after the 0.1% gain in January. The report is the final input in the monthly GDP projection, tracking a 0.2% gain in February GDP (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% drop in January. An estimate for real Q1 GDP is for a 1.5% gain (q/q, saar) after the 1.7% increase in Q4, which would be just above the BoC’s 1.3% Q1 estimate from the April MPR and hence have little impact on the near term policy outlook. February average weekly earnings (Thursday) are seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% increase in January. The Bank was constructive on wage growth last week, observing that the continued pick-up is “as expected, even factoring out recent minimum wage increases in Ontario and Alberta.” The April CFIB sentiment indicator will be released on Thursday.

Europe: The focus this week is on the ECB meeting, which is widely expected to keep rates and guidance unchanged at the April meeting amid ongoing volatility on markets and lingering trade and geopolitical concerns. Draghi will likely sound pretty much like Praet on April 17: Optimistic on growth and the medium term inflation outlook but not convinced yet that inflation developments have met criteria for sustained adjustment. So the message remains for now that an ample degree of stimulus remains necessary and the ECB must be “patient, persistent and prudent”.

It also a bumper weak on the data front, with PMI, IFO and ESI Economic Confidence taking centre stage. France and Spain are the first major Eurozone countries to release Q1 GDP numbers and Spain will publish the first preliminary inflation reading for April. So plenty of relevant data, most of which is likely to be bond friendly, but unlikely to solve the question whether the current warning signals in indicators are due to one off factors, or the first sign of a broader and quicker slowdown in growth momentum. The long and harsh winter, coupled with widespread flue outbreaks and unusually large numbers of sick days as well as the earlier timing of Easter this year, has left its mark on data through Q1 and likely to also still have an impact on April figures.

Preliminary PMI readings (Tuesday) are seen falling across the board, but expected to still point to a robust pace of expansion in manufacturing and services sectors. The German Ifo business confidence indicator (Tuesday) comes in a new format this month as the institute has changed the base care tweaked the methodology and also included the services sector now, which so far has been reported separately. This makes forecasts and comparisons more tricky, although the Ifo institute has provided a backward time series. For the new indicator, a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.6 from 100.1 in the previous month. Finally Eurozone ESI economic confidence (Friday) is seen falling to 112.2 from 112.6 in March, with both services and manufacturing confidence expected to decline further. Data may be showing first signs of a slowdown, but the labor market is a lagging indicator and we expect a renewed decline in the German jobless number (Friday) of -5K in April, with the unemployment rate likely to hold at a record low of 5.3%.

UK: The calendar this week brings the CBI trends surveys, consumer confidence and the first estimate for Q1 GDP, along with monthly government borrowing figures. The April CBI industrial trends survey (Tuesday) expected to come in with a +4 reading in the total orders headline, while the CBI’s distributive sales survey for the same month (Thursday) should post an improvement to a -2 reading in the headline realized sales figure after -8 in the month prior. The April Gfk consumer confidence (also Thursday) anticipated at -7 , which would be unchanged from the previous month. As for GDP (Friday), growth rates expected at 0.3% q/q and 1.4% after respective Q4 figures of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.

Japan: The BoJ meets (Thursday, Friday) and no policy changes are expected. This meeting will be the first for the two new deputy governors, Masayoshi Amamiya and Masazumi Wakatabe, and it will be interesting to ascertain their leanings. The March services PPI (Tuesday) is seen rising to a 0.7% y/y clip from 0.6%. The remaining releases are all due Friday. The February all-industry index is forecast bouncing 1.0% after the -1.8% drop in January. March unemployment rate is seen steady at 2.5%, while the job offers/seekers ratio should stay unchanged at 1.58. March industrial production is penciled in at 1.0% y/y from the prior unchanged reading. March retail sales are expected to post a 1.6% y/y clip, slightly down from the previous 1.7% increase. March housing starts and construction orders are also due.

Australia: The Q1 CPI (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q4. The CPI is projected to expand at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q1 from the 1.9% y/y growth rate in Q4. Trade prices are due Thursday, with the export price index expected to rise to a 4.0% pace in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 2.8% rise in Q4. The import price index is anticipated at 1.0% in Q1, half of the 2.0% rate in Q4. The Q1 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Kent (Financial Markets) speaks Tuesday at the Housing Industry Association (HIA) Breakfast in Sydney on “The limits of Interest-Only Lending.” Next week brings the RBA’s meeting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 24-04-2018 15:28

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 24th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...24_8-55-45.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets moved mostly higher overnight, following on from a positive session on Wall Street and amid ongoing USD strength with a weaker Yen underpinning a 0.75% rise in the Nikkei. The Hang Seng is up 0.94%, the CSI 300 rallied 1.75% amid speculation that the government is considering easing some policies put in to limit the credit boom. The absence of any negative news on the trade front seems to have given stock markets some breathing space and U.S. futures are also up in tandem with U.K. futures. Oil prices are also up and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 69.14 per barrel. For now though bonds are getting a boost and stock markets are also higher, with most European futures posting gains in tandem with U.S. futures and after a positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on confidence data out of France, Germany and the U.K.. The U.K. also has public finance data and Germany auctions 2-year Schatz notes.

FX Update: The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07. EURUSD logged a 10-week low at 1.2184, though euro demand has subsequently fuelled a rebound to the 1.2220 area. USDJPY lifted for a sixth consecutive session, making a 10-week high at 108.87. EURJPY is also firmer, though has so far remained below the two-month high it saw last week. The gains in USDJPY have been concomitant with the U.S. T-note yield nearing the 3.0% level, which has been generating headlines, which comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.86% for the better, more than reversing the moderate loss seen yesterday. North Korea’s Kim said that he would be willing to accept IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...24_9-46-51.png

Main Macro Events Today

* German IFO – The German Ifo business confidence indicator, due Tuesday, comes in a new format this month, which includes the services sector now. For the new indicator a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.5 from 100.1 in the previous month. However, after the better than expected PMI readings there is a bias to the upside to the numbers. In any case, we don’t expect the April round of survey indicators to really change the outlook for the ECB, which is seen on hold this week, with officials seeing scope to leave the final decision on the future of the QE program open until July, when the risks to the global outlook may have become a bit clearer and the decision is becoming urgent.

* UK Public Borrowing – Expectations – at 1.6B pounds from -0.272B pounds last month.

* US Consumer confidence – likely declined to 126.0 in April, from March’s 127.7.

* US New home sales – expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February.

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...24_9-42-14.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 25-04-2018 08:41

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 25th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...25_9-17-20.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.623% in early trade, the 2-year is down -0.5 bp at -0.5685. 10-year Treasury yields pierced the 3% mark overnight, but have fallen back slightly to currently 2.998%, while yields moved broadly higher in Asia with the 10-year JGB up 1.2 bp at 0.054%. Stock markets headed south in Asia, following a weak close in the U.S. with concerns about the earnings outlook amid warnings on profit outlooks hit sentiment. With a lack of key data releases in Europe today the focus is on the ECB meeting tomorrow, where Draghi will likely see through the recent run of weak confidence data to keep the ECB on course to end net asset purchases by the end of the year, but repeat once again that inflation is not yet on a sustainable path higher, which means the ECB is not ready to commit just yet.

FX Update: USDJPY lifted back above 109.00 from yesterday’s correction low at 108.54, but has so far left yesterday’s 10-week peak at 109.20 untroubled. Ditto for EURJPY. Stock markets in Asia have been broadly lower following declines on Wall Street, with investors digesting higher yields — the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level (and first time here since early 2017) — and doubts about earnings growth. The USA500 closed out yesterday with a 1.3% loss, while the Nikkie 225 was showing a 0.3% loss in the late PM Tokyo session. This backdrop has likely curtailed yen selling, according to market narratives. In data, Japan’s February industry activity index came in with 0.4% m/m growth, slightly below the median forecast for 0.5%. USDJPY has been trending higher for a month now, from sub-105.00 levels. The dynamic has been concomitant with rising U.S. yields, with looser fiscal policy having given added underpinning to Fed tightening expectations. This comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. Demand for foreign assets by Japanese life insurers has been a factor propping USDJPY up so far in the new fiscal year, while an abatement in concerns about trade tensions and cooling relations on the Korean peninsular have also been in the mix. Overall, we advise following the trend in USDJPY for now. Support comes in at 108.40-42.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...8-1024x713.png

Main Macro Events Today

* Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

* Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – -2.043M Barrels from -1.1M last week

* BOC Gov Poloz & Wilkins speech – Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday.

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...25_9-31-17.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 26-04-2018 10:07

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 26th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...26_9-15-57.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields down -0.2 bp at 0.627% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 0.3 bp at -0.564%. So a slight flattening of the yield curve, which mirrors developments in in the U.S.. Still, while 10-year Bund, JGB and Treasury yields are marginally down, they remain at high levels with the 10-year Treasury still holding above 3.0%. Stock markets meanwhile are struggling to come to terms with the prospect of yields rising amid signs of a slowdown in growth. Asian markets traded mixed and while NASDAQ futures got a lift from earnings reports, Dow Jones and USA500 futures are down. In Europe stock futures are moving higher, led by the GER30, amid reports that China will cut import duties on cars. Still, trading is likely to remain cautious ahead of the ECB meeting today. With Draghi widely expected to keep rates on hold, the focus will be on the presser and signs that the central bank is inching closer to a decision on QE. The Riksbank is also expected to keep rates steady. The calendar also has U.K. mortgage data and the CBI retailing survey. German consumer confidence at the start of the session fell back slightly – as expected

FX Update: The dollar has dipped after posting fresh highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. EURUSD posted an eight-week low at 1.2159 while US-JPY rose of an eighth consecutive day, making an 11-week high at 109.46. The move reflected ongoing dollar strength, although the yen has been among the leaders of the underperforming currencies over the last week, too. Loose fiscal policy and Fed tightening expectations have been providing the fundamental underpinnings of the dollar’s ascent, with flagging global stock markets an indirect positive. On the trade front, China said today that it will be cutting the levy on imported cars to about 10-15% from 25% currently. On the geopolitical front, focus is on what Trump decides with regard to the Iran nuclear deal.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...3-1024x715.png

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB – The ECB is widely expected to keep rates and guidance unchanged at today’s meeting. Draghi will likely sound pretty much like Praet on April 17. Cautiously optimistic on growth and the medium term inflation outlook – to keep a phasing out of QE this year in play, but not convinced yet that inflation developments have met criteria for sustained adjustment.

* US Labor Data – Expectations – -Unemployment Claims expected slightly lower at 230K from 232K last week.

* US Durable Goods – Expectations – rising to 1.5% in March , on top of the 3.0% jump in February, with shipments and inventories also expected to be up strongly at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

* UK Gfk Consumer Confidence – Expectations – at -7, which would be unchanged from the previous month.

* Japanese CPI, Labor Data and Retail Sales – Tokyo April CPI likely slipped to an 0.8% y/y clip from 1.0% overall, and on a core basis, rose to 0.9% y/y from 0.8%. March unemployment rate is seen steady at 2.5%, while the job offers/seekers ratio should stay unchanged at 1.58. March retail sales are expected to post a 1.6% y/y clip, slightly down from the previous 1.7% increase.


Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...26_9-43-34.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 27-04-2018 12:22

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 27th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...27_9-30-09.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: Bond as well as equity markets in Europe remain underpinned by a dovish leaving ECB presser yesterday and 10-year Bunds have dropped a further 1.6 bp this morning and are trading at 0.573%, the 2-year is down -0.1 bp at -0.581%, the 5-year Bobl is down -0.5 bp at -0.038%. Curve flattening trades are still at play and Bunds are outperforming Treasuries and JGBs as well as other Eurozone markets. European stock futures meanwhile are moving higher after a largely positive session in Asia as earnings reports underpin the tech sector in particular. Weaker than expected French GDP numbers only added support for bonds, but doesn’t seem to have dented sentiment on stock markets. The calendar is pretty packed today, with more GDP numbers out of the U.K. and Spain, as well as German jobless data and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment.

FX Update: Dollar majors are at near net unchanged levels heading into the London interbank open. EURUSD late yesterday traded below 1.2100 for the first time in early January, extending the latest phase of losses which were seen in the wake of the dovish-tilting guidance of ECB President Draghi yesterday, following the central bank’s April policy review. Recent EURUSD losses have been driven mostly by dollar outperformance, underpinned by the mix of looser U.S. fiscal policy and Fed tightening, though the comparatively less hawkish/dovish stance of the ECB has been one of the bearish fundamental pillars. USDJPY has remained buoyant but below the 11-week high that was seen yesterday at 109.46. The BoJ left policy on hold at its policy review today, but it removed the timeframe to achieve CPI target following its policy review today. AUDUSD punched out a new four-month low at 0.7538. Data showing Chinese industrial profits at a 21-month low weighted on the Aussie.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...7-1024x719.png

Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment Data- Expectations – a renewed decline in the German jobless number of -5K in April, with the unemployment rate likely to hold at a record low of 5.3%.

* UK GDP – Expectations – growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.4% after respective Q4 figures of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.

* Speeches out of ECB Lautenschläger, Merch, SNB Jordan, BoE Carney and MPC Haldane

* US GDP and PCE – Expectations – Q1 GDP is expected to slow to a 2.1% rate of growth , after the 2.9% Q4 clip, with a moderation that extends the seasonal pattern of Q1 weakness. Q1 PCE is expected to slow to a 2.6% from 2.7% Q4.

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...27_9-30-25.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 30-04-2018 17:57

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 30th April 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th April 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

Much transpired over the past week that appears to have propped up flagging investor sentiment. There was the historic meeting and handshake between Korean leaders Moon and Kim. The 2.3% increase in Q1 GDP beat the 2.1% median forecast, which should assuage fears that growth has downshifted appreciably. Indeed, this expansion will become the second longest on record come May 1, breaking the 106-month expansion from the 1960s. Earnings have mostly come in strong, as expected, with Facebook +63% profits jump in particular overshadowing past data breach hijinx. They, and fundamentals, suggest there should be enough momentum in the economy to break the 120-month expansion record (covering 33 business cycles dating back to 1854).

United States: The coming week is packed with top tier data and the FOMC meeting, scheduled for May 1-2. The most visible reading on the economy will come from the employment report for April. Early estimates show another expected solid gain to start the second quarter. In addition to payrolls, readings on personal income and consumption should show healthy gains while producer sentiment should remain strong, and productivity predictably tepid. The trade deficit situation is estimated to improve after a substantial deterioration in Q4 and Q1 that partly reflected hurricane-related import strength. As for the FOMC, we expect the Committee to hold policy steady and postpone the next rate hike until in June.

Top billing goes to the April payrolls report (Friday), expected to rise 210,000 in April , following a tepid and disappointing March gain of 103,000. Personal income is estimated to rise 0.4% in April (Monday), following similar gains over the last 3 months. Nominal consumption is estimated to rise 0.4% as well, resulting in a steady savings rate of 3.4%. Chicago PMI may nudge up to 58.0 in April from 57.4 and pending home sales are seen ticking up to 108.5 in March from 107.5. The ISM manufacturing index should decline to 58.5 in April from 59.3 in March (Tuesday). The ADP employment survey is set to dip to 217k in April from 241k (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims may back up 16k to 225k for the April 28 week (Thursday), up from 209k last week that marked the lowest level since December of 1969.

Canada: The February GDP (Tuesday) and March trade (Thursday) on tap. A rebound is expected in February GDP to an 0.1% gain after the 0.1% drop in January. March trade is expected to show further growth in exports, leaving a narrowing in the deficit to -C$2.5 bln from -C$2.7 bln. The industrial product price index is due Tuesday while the April Ivey PMI is on tap Friday. The Markit PMI for April is due out Tuesday. Governor Poloz speaks on Tuesday. His appearances at the House and Senate this week were consistent with a gradual data-driven approach to rate hikes.

Europe: The Eurozone growth outlook is starting to look shaky, and while risks to the Q1 GDP number this week are to the downside, there is a lot of noise in the data at the moment, which means like the ECB we will have to wait some months to let the dust settle from weather-related disruptions. Still, the increasingly uncertain growth outlook is likely to only impact the rate outlook for next year, and the ECB remains on course to take out net asset purchases with a short taper in the last quarter of the year.

This week’s round of data releases is unlikely to add clarity and could start more quiet than usual as much of Europe is closed Tuesday for Labour Day celebrations, which will prompt many to make a long weekend out of it. The calendar mainly focuses on the second wave of preliminary April inflation numbers and the first reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP, which it is seen decelerating to 0.4% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q4 last year — with a risk to the downside. Meanwhile, Final PMI readings are expected (Wednesday) to be confirmed at 56.0, and the services reading (Friday) at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2, all still firmly above the 50 point no change mark. Data releases also include Eurozone PPI inflation and M3 money supply growth as well as German retail sales and the Eurozone unemployment rate, with the latter expected to hold steady at 8.5%. Germany auctions 5-year Bobls Wednesday, France sells bonds Thursday and there is also ECB speak from Constancio and Coeure on Thursday.

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the PMI surveys along with monthly lending and money supply data from the BoE. The April manufacturing PMI survey (Tuesday) expected to come in at 54.8 after 55.1 in March, while April construction PMI (Wednesday) to rebound from the weather-affected 47.0 reading in March, and the April services PMI at 53.2 after 51.7 in March, which had also been a reading suppressed by bad weather.

Japan: Japan is on holiday Monday, with Tuesday bringing April auto sales. April consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to slip to 44.1 from 44.3. April Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) should improve to 53.3 from 53.1.

China: The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) should rise to 51.3 from 51.0.

Australia: The RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) is expected to reveal no change in the 1.50% policy setting. The March trade report (Thursday) is projected to show an improvement to a A$1.0 bln surplus from A$0.8 bln in February. Building approvals (Thursday) are seen rebounding 2.0% m/m in March after the 6.2% drop in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 01-05-2018 11:37

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 1st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st May 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...01_8-19-59.jpg

FX News Today

FX Update & Outlook: The RBA left rates as expected unchanged at 1.5% and there was also little changed in the statement. However, the statement did add a growth target of 3% for 2019 and 2018. With many markets closed today the Asian session is low on liquidity and the USD remains relatively well bid although, Sterling and the Euro are off recent lows. The AUD was completely unmoved by the RBA and trades at 0.7540, with the JPY at 109.40. Gold slumped under $1312.00 overnight and Oil remains well bid ($68.77) following Israel PM Netanyahu claims that Iran had a secret plan to build nuclear weapons and had been “brazenly lying” about their program. President Trump must decide by May 12 whether or not to extend U.S. participation in the “terrible” Iran nuclear deal.

US Data Reports: Revealed a slight under-performance for personal income relative to consumption in March that unfortunately narrowed the income-consumption gap of Q1 though a lower income path, although expectations are for a big “real” consumption bounce through Q2. Q2 GDP growth estimate remains at 3.6% after a 2.3% rate in Q1, with real consumption growth of an estimated 3.3% in Q2 after a 1.1% Q1 clip. We saw a flat PCE chain price figure in March that beat the 0.1% CPI drop, though with the same 0.2% core price gains for both. We saw small but divergent April moves in the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed gauges, to 57.6 and 21.8 respectively. We’re seeing sustained strength across the producer sentiment measures in 2018 despite some April drop-back for some measures from lofty Q4-Q1 readings. The pending home sales report was a modest disappointment, with a lean 0.4% rise from a downwardly revised February figure.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...1-1024x429.jpg

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations are for a further weakening to 54.8 from 55.1 last time in line with weakening in other UK data.

* ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expected to also fall to a still healthy 58.4 from 59.7 last time anything over 58.5 will be viewed as positive for US manufacturing.

* CAD GDP – Expectations are for a rise 0.1% in February after the 0.1% drop in January. The projected monthly GDP figures are tracking a 1.3% gain in real Q1 GDP versus the 1.7% pace in Q4.

* Speeches – The RBA’s Lowe and Poloz from the BOC, the FED are in media blackout before meeting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 02-05-2018 11:50

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 2nd May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd May 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...0-1024x710.jpg

FX News Today

Asia Wrap: Many markets reopened after yesterday’s holidays, but there was little momentum on the only day this week that all Asian markets trade. The Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.65% loss, the CSI 300 is little changed and Nikkei and Topix down -0.23% and -0.17% respectively, as the yen picked up slightly against the dollar. Long yields climbed higher across Asia with the 10-year JGB yield up 0.9bp at 0.037%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 2.976%. oil pries are slightly higher and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 67.53 per barrel. Earnings reports remain in focus, Japan consumer confidence declined, while China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI inched marginally higher.

European Outlook: Bund yields are higher in opening trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.569%, the 2-year unchanged at -0.599%, leaving the curve steeper, as European stock futures move higher. The uptick in Bund yields comes alongside a 1.3 bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which continue to hold below the 3% mark. Yields also moved up across Asia. U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ outperforming, after a lacklustre session in Asia. Eurozone peripherals are outperforming ahead of preliminary Q1 GDP data out of the Eurozone, which is expected to show a clear slowdown in growth momentum and together with the mixed April confidence readings should at least push out the rate hike trajectory for next year, even if it is unlikely to prevent the ECB from phasing out QE by the end of the year. The data calendar also includes the U.K. construction PMI and a German 4-year Bobl sale.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...6-1024x464.jpg

Main Macro Events Today

* FOMC Meeting – No policy changes are expected, and since there is no press conference nor updated dots or economic projections. Expect the Fed to largely reiterate the March statement that the economy is expanding moderately, with strong job gains, albeit with some slowing in household and business investment. The Fed may show a little more confidence in reaching the 2% inflation goal given the updraft in various price reports, which would be consistent with expectations for a 25 bp June tightening.

* EUR Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – inline at 56.0 no change from last time.

* Speech from head of the BUBA (and still potentila new head of the ECB) –Weidmann

* EUR GDP – Expectations – Q1 GDP is expected to slow to a 0.4% rate of growth , after the 0.6% Q4 number, with a slow down in YoY number to 2.5% fro Q4 down from 2.7% in Q4. Poor weather, a series of strikes, an early Easter and possibility of an accelerated slow down all swirling around this key release.

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...02_9-33-19.jpg

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 03-05-2018 08:00

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 3rd May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd May 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...03_9-33-30.jpg

FX News Today

Asia Wrap: Stock markets failed to cheer in Asia, with developers leading declines in Hong Kong in particular, amid concerns over waning momentum in home sales. Japan was closed again for a holiday, the Hang Seng dropped -1.25%, while the CSI 300 managed a 0.23% decline. The ASX outperformed with a 0.76% gain, despite negative leads from Wall Street yesterday, although U.S. stock futures are marginally higher. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are down -0.2 bp at 2.966% and the dollar retreated after the FOMC met but did not exceed expectations for a tune-up of the inflation references after recent gains in PCE prices. That left a slightly more dovish imprint than the markets had anticipated.

The FOMC: Left the rates unchanged with a 1.625% mid-point for the 1.50% to 1.75% band. The vote was unanimous. The policy statement noted both overall and core inflation “have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low,” however. On the economy the Fed reiterated it’s been rising at a “moderate rate.” Job gains remained strong, while growth in household spending “moderate from its strong Q4 pace.” Also, business investment continued to grow “strongly.” The FOMC also reiterated it expects “further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy…Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.” The statement was largely as expected and keeps a June hike on track, but it wasn’t overly hawkish such that a fourth rate hike is being priced in.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...3-1024x444.jpg

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Services PMI – Expectations are for a rise to 53.5 from a surprise fall last month to 51.7, the construction number beat estimates yesterday but the Manufacturing number was s significant miss.

* EUR Area CPI – National inflation data for April have mostly been lower, with France the notable exception, so a forecast for a steady Eurozone HICP reading of 1.3% y/y has a bias to the downside and a further dip in the headline rate would add to the arguments of the ECB doves that inflation is not on a sustainable path higher yet and remains reliant on ample monetary support. Core figure expected to be 0.9% with bias to the downside too.

* Speech from head of the SNB – Jordan

* US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Expectations a dip to 58.1 from 58.8 last time. Key bell weather of the US services activity

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...03_9-39-06.jpg

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 04-05-2018 11:24

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 4th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...04_9-17-13.png

FX News Today

European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.531% in opening trade, the 2-year is trading unchanged at -0.599%. Peripherals are outperforming again while European stock futures are moving higher at the start of the session, against losses in U.S. futures after a weaker session in Asia overnight. U.S. jobs data rather than ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S. seem the main focus for markets today. The local calendar has the final reading of April services PMIs as well as March retail sales data.

FX Update: The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USDJPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high seen yesterday at 110.03. The move reflects a broader correction in the dollar following the less hawkish than anticipated post-FOMC meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday and a position-trimming and/or hedging dynamic ahead of the U.S. jobs report, which is generally expected to be strong but, as always, carries a degree of two-way risk for market participants. Regarding the U.S. payrolls report, they are expected at a solid 210k headline rise, though risks are to the upside following tight initial claims data and remarkable strength in consumer confidence and vehicle sales data.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...2-1024x722.png

Main Macro Events Today

* German Services – Expectations – unchanged at 54.1 and composite at 55.3.

* Eurozone Services – Expectations – Markit Services PMI expected at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2.

* Speeches out of Fed’s Dudley and Quarles, FOMC Williams and German Buda President Weidmann

* NFP data – Expectations – US April payrolls expected at 192k, upside risk given claims, while jobless rate is estimated to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, which would be the lowest since December 2000. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.2%, for a y/y gain of 2.7%, steady from March.


Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...04_9-43-32.png

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 07-05-2018 12:21

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 7th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2018.


THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...d-20170724.jpg

Main Macro Events This Week

Global growth has clearly moderated in 2018. And rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, and possible trade headwinds exacerbated worries. Many key reports have disappointed so far this year, including the March and April U.S. jobs report, Q1 UK GDP, retail sales, and various regional PMIs. Fears over real shooting wars with North Korea, Syria, Iran and possible involvement with Russia, hit business and consumer sentiment hard, while angst over a trade war has impacted too. One major result from the slide in momentum is that it will keep central bank normalization at bay.

United States: The U.S. jobs report disappointed on nearly every metric, and especially in the service sector. The April CPI (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing. The y/y rate should edge up to 2.2% from 2.1% in March, which would be the highest since a similar gain in February 2017. April PPI (Wednesday) also is expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core, after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core.

Fedspeakers are back now that the FOMC is out of the way and Earnings remain a focal point.

Canada: April employment highlights this week’s calendar. The jobs report (Friday) is seen revealing a 25.0k rise after the 32.3k gain in March. The unemployment rate should hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to expand at a 220.0k unit pace in April from the 225.2k in March. Building permit values (Wednesday) are expected to fall 1.0% in March after the 2.6% gain in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is projected to slip 0.1% after the 0.2% decline in February.

Europe: Data releases focus mainly on Germany. German March manufacturing orders are seen rising 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m in the previous month, confirming that the manufacturing sector remains robust for now, although with the earlier timing of the Easter holidays the forecast comes with a larger error margin and downside risks. This is even more true for March industrial production numbers (Tuesday), which include construction and energy production. We are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m after the weather related -1.6 m/m contraction in February. German trade data is also due and we expect data to back expectations for a marked slowdown in German GDP growth to just around 0.3% q/q in Q1.

UK: The week ahead is highlighted by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (announcing Thursday) – no change expected following the plethora of weak data especially Q1 GDP. The data calendar brings the April BRC retails sales report (Tuesday), which we expect to show a contraction of 0.8% m/m, which would payback for the strong 1.4% m/m gain in March, and March industrial production and trade numbers (both Thursday). We expect industrial production to rise 0.2% m/m (median 0.1%) after 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior.

Japan: March personal income and PCE data are due (Tuesday), with the latter seen up 1.0% from the prior 0.1% increase. The March current account surplus (Thursday) should widen to JPY 2,800 bln from 2,076 bln. April bank loan figures are also due (Thursday).

China: April trade report (Tuesday) is expected to reveal a $20.0 surplus, versus the previous $33.7 bln surplus. April inflation (Thursday) should show CPI slipping to a 2.0% y/y from 2.1%, while April PPI should warm to 3.5% from 3.1%.

Australia: Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.6% gain in February. Housing finance (Friday) is seen growing 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews 08-05-2018 10:24

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
 
Date : 8th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2018.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...08_8-56-50.jpg

FX News Today

Asian Wrap: Stock markets remained underpinned during the Asian session, as concerns about global trade ease and 10 year Treasury yields hold below 3%. Oil prices remain in focus ahead of Trump’s decision on the future of the trade accord with Iran. Oil prices are trading marginally below the USD 70 per barrel mark. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, 10-year JGBs are up 0.6 bp at 0.041%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and in Asia Chinese markets outperformed again as optimism on future trade returns. The CSI 300 is up 1.08%, the Hang Seng gained 1.24%, while Nikkei and Topix are up 0.21% and 0.09% respectively.

German Data – Trade Surplus Increased & Strong Industrial Production: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.0 bln in March, up from EUR 19.4 bln in the previous month, largely thanks to a rebound in exports, which rose 1.7% m/m, after two consecutive months of contraction. Imports declined for a third month. The March number left the accumulated surplus for the first quarter at EUR 63.1 bln, down from EUR 64.2 bln in the last quarter of 2017 and suggesting that net exports didn’t contribute much to overall growth in Q1. German industrial production stronger than expected. Production rebounded 1.0% m/m in March from the -1.6% m/m contraction in the previous month. There was a broad rebound across all manufacturing groups, energy production expanded again and construction rose 0.6% m/m, after falling -3.1% m/m in the previous month, which confirms that the bad weather was largely to blame for the weak February numbers.

Charts of the Day

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...5-1024x462.jpg

Main Macro Events Today

* TRUMP Speech – Expectations – He will announce that the USA is leaving the Iran deal or as a minimum, extending the deadline. All of which is OIL price positive.

* Australian Federal Budget Release – Expectations – Some tax Relief for low income families and businesses, plus significant infrastructure spending.

* Speeches out of the Fed’s Powell – “Monetary Policy and Capital Flows” – one to watch direct implications for potential future policy

Support & Resistance Levels

https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-con...08_9-39-19.jpg

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


All times are GMT. The time now is 01:52.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.