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  #61  
Old 05-11-2015, 23:45
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6460. Activity in the market is still low. The trend is downward, the price is in the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 chart. We can observe a 9-day major support cluster around the prices of 1.6150-1.6210. So be careful when selling EUR/NZD before a breakout of our key support level. The price is also in a strong downward channel. A breakout in a high volume of the level of 1.6150 will confirm further downward continuation. Resistance is at the price of 1.6500. Watch for a potential change in polarity. The strong support at the price of 1.6150 may become strong resistance once it is broken.

Trading recommendations:
Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since the price is at the 1.6150 critical support. Watch for a potential breakout of the level of 1.6150 to confirm downward continuation.




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  #62  
Old 13-11-2015, 00:50
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6380. The trend is neutral. We can observe a 14-day major support cluster around the 1.6150-1.6210 area. So, be careful when selling EUR/NZD before a breakout of the key support level takes place. In the the daily time frame, we can see neutral bars, which are a sign of an indecision market. The pair has broken our downward channel but with a very weak price action. A high-volume breakout at the level of 1.6150 will confirm further downward movements. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.6500. According to the M15, I found a massive volume spike (selling climax), and later on buyers supported potential absorption. So, be careful when selling at this stage because we may see potential recovery of the euro. Watch for a potential change in polarity. Anyway, the strong support at 1.6150 may become a strong resistance once it gets broken.

Trading recommendations:
Selling looks risky at this stage so watch for potential buying opportunity on an intraday basis. Selling opportunities are preferable only if the price breaks the level of 1.6150.




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  #63  
Old 13-11-2015, 16:31
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
The resistance line at 1.9114 was broken, but important resistance at 1.6545 still stays intact, and only a clear breakout above here will confirm that the bottom of wave 2 was seen at 1.6124 and wave 3 higher is developing. The risk continues to be observed, that the sideways consolidation calls for one final decline closer to 1.5882 before the decline from 1.9114 finally comes to the end.

Trading recommendation:
We are waiting for an opportunity to buy EUR 1.6365 or upon a break above 1.6545, with stop placed at 1.6280.




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  #64  
Old 18-11-2015, 01:32
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
A sideways consolidation in the area of 1.6300 - 1.6545 continues endlessly. That said, we still feel that an upside resolution will be eventually seen for a clear break above 1.6545 confirming continuation for a rally higher to 1.8020 and ultimately above 1.9114.
Only a breakout below support at 1.6300 and more importantly a breakout below 1.6179 will call for a final decline to 1.5882 before the decline from 1.9114 is finally over and an expected rally higher can begin.

Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 1.6365 and have placed our stop at 1.6280. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6400 or upon a break above 1.6545 and use the same stop at 1.6280.




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  #65  
Old 19-11-2015, 14:08
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
A sideways consolidation between 1.61.24 and 1.6545 is becoming a never-ending and depressing story. We still continue to watch for a clear breakout above resistance at 1.6545, but they need to move soon in the face of the risk to turn lower for one final decline closer to 1.5882 to end the decline from 1.9114.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6360 with stop placed at 1.6280. Buy EUR closer to 1.6300 or upon a breakout above 1.6545 and use the same stop at 1.6280.




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  #66  
Old 20-11-2015, 16:20
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
Resistance at 1.6545 was formidably proved, and a breakout below support at 1.6280 calls for one final decline closer to 1.5898 before the correction from 1.9114 finally comes to an end.
Short-term resistance is now seen at 1.6400, which will ideally protect the upside for a continuation lower towards 1.5898.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6280 was hit for a small loss. We will sell EUR at 1.6385 with stop placed at 1.6525




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  #67  
Old 27-11-2015, 15:02
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
No changes are observed in the chart.
A slow decline towards an ideal target at 1.5898 continues. We are looking for minor resistance at 1.6261 to protect the upside for a breakout below minor support at 1.6048 calling for the next leg lower towards an ideal target at 1.5898 before a more substantial bottom is in place and a large rally back to 1.8020 and above is expected.
Only a direct breakout above 1.6261 and more importantly a break above 1.6434 indicates that the bottom is already in place.

Trading recommendation:
We will but EUR at 1.5925 or upon the breakout above 1.6261.




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  #68  
Old 01-12-2015, 01:46
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
We can say a lot about this cross. A downtrend from 1.9114 persists with an ideal target seen at 1.5898 before recovery through minor resistance at 1.6377 indicating the bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally towards 1.8020 and above has begun.
A breakout above 1.6460 will confirm the bottom and the rally to 1.8020, but for now the downtrend still dominates the picture and still calls for a test of 1.5898.

Trading recommendation:
We are still looking for a EUR buying opportunity at 1.5925 or upon a breakout above 1.6377 (one order done cancels the other).




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  #69  
Old 02-12-2015, 10:38
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
With the downside target at 1.5898 fulfilled, we are looking for signs that a bottom is in place. The first minor indication, will be a breakout above 1.5980, while a breakout above resistance at 1.6243 is needed to confirm the bottom and that a strong rally back towards 1.8020 and higher is developing.
There is the risk of a clear breakout below 1.5898 which can result in the downside pressure towards 1.5688 and even lower to 1.5478.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5925 with stop placed at 1.5850. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5980 and use the same stop at 1.5850.




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  #70  
Old 04-12-2015, 06:51
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
Ideally, we have seen a bottom at 1.5838 for a break above minor resistance at 1.6009 and more importantly a breakout above resistance at 1.6243 confirming that a bottom for the correction from 1.9114 is in place and a new impulsive rally to 1.8020 and above can develop.
We have to acknowledge the risk is more downside pressure towards 1.5688 and possibly even 1.5479 if minor resistance at 1.6009 is able to protect the upside.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.5850 was taken out. We will only buy on a break above 1.6009 and place our stop just below the lowest price seen.




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  #71  
Old 09-12-2015, 04:49
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6378 in a high volume. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe strong rejection from Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6070. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential profit targets. First profit target is seen at the level of 1.6480 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) and second is at 1.6745 (Fibonacci expansion 100%.) Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. The short-term trend has changed from downward to upward.

Trading recommendations :
Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips




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  #72  
Old 10-12-2015, 10:57
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
We did see an anticipated breakout above resistance at 1.6490 for a rally higher to 1.6749. This morning, RBNZ cut its rates by 25 basis points, which should help this cross move even higher. However, a rather hawkish statement from RBNZ after the rate cut caused a deep retracement of the rally from 1.6049 to 1.6748. We do regard a decline from 1.6748 as a corrective decline, which have ideally terminated at 1.6242 for the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.7191.
That said we have to accept a possibility of an even deeper corrective decline closer to 1.6049, but at no point is this low allowed to be broken as that will invalidate the above count.

Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6390 was hit for a nice 345 pip profit. We will only buy on a break above 1.6348 and place a stop just below the most recent low.




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  #73  
Old 11-12-2015, 18:05
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
A correction in wave [ii] most likely ended at 1.6144 and thereby took back most of the rally in wave [i]. We will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.6245 as the first good indication that wave [ii] has ended and wave [iii] higher towards 1.7191 is developing now. To confirm that wave [iii] is unfolding a break above resistance at 1.6368 is needed.
As long as minor resistance at 1.6245 is able to protect the upside, we must accept the possibility of more downside pressure towards 1.6049, but this low should not be broken in the short term.

Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR at 1.6150 or upon a breakout above 1.6245 (one order done cancels the other). We will place our stop at 1.6045 expecting it to move higher quickly.




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  #74  
Old 18-12-2015, 15:47
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards .The price tested the level of 1.6215 in an average volume. In the daily time frame, I found weak demand and a neutral bar. In the H4 time frame, I found strong head and shoulders formation confirmed (broken neckline). Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since lower prices are expected. I had placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6070, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of 1.5840 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of 1.5470.

Trading recommendations :
Buying EUR/NZD looks very risky at this stage since the price confirmed head and shoulders formation. Watch for potential selling opportunities.




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  #75  
Old 22-12-2015, 02:50
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave Summary:

The odds do favor that an expanded flat wave ii ended at 1.5990 and wave iii higher will now develop to do a rally towards at least 1.7116, which is the first extension target for wave iii. Whenever wave two becomes an expanded flat correction, we should expect wave three to extend and in the case EUR/NZD the first extension target at 161.8% the length of wave i will be seen at 1.7116, which by the way also marked a 38.2% corrective target of a rally of wave 1.
So, an expected bottom has been found at 1.5990 for a breakout above 1.6246 as the first indication that the bottom is in place and wave iii higher is developing.

Trading recommendation:
We will buy on a breakout above 1.6246 and place our stop at 1.6010.




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  #76  
Old 24-12-2015, 01:27
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6050. In the daily time frame, I found a weak supply bar. In the H4 time frame, I found a strong head-and-shoulders confirmed formation (a broken neckline). The price again broke the 200 SMA. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since lower prices are expected. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6070 (broken), Fibonacci expansion 100% is at the level of 1.5840, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% is seen at the level of 1.5470.

Trading recommendations :
Buying EUR/NZD looks very risky at this stage since the price confirmed a head-and-shoulders formation. Watch for potential selling opportunities.




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  #77  
Old 25-12-2015, 13:14
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Overview:
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6070. We can observe low volatily due to bank holidays.In the daily time frame, I found a weak supply bar. In the H4 time frame, I found a strong head-and-shoulders confirmed formation (a broken neckline). The price again broke the 200 SMA. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since lower prices are expected. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6070 (broken), Fibonacci expansion 100% is at the level of 1.5840, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% is seen at the level of 1.5470.

Trading recommendations :
Buying EUR/NZD looks very risky at this stage since the price confirmed a head-and-shoulders formation. Watch for potential selling opportunities.




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  #78  
Old 29-12-2015, 19:17
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
It was very disappointing to see another failure to break above minor resistance at 1.6151. It does keep a weak downtrend in place for a possible new low closer to 1.5858, but the low at 1.5784 should hold firm for a new impulsive rally in wave iii towards 1.7064.
Only an unexpected breakout below 1.5784 will delay the expected rally higher for a move closer to support at 1.5651 before the next attempt to move higher.

Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR upon a breakout above minor resistance at 1.6089 and place stop at 1.5925.




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  #79  
Old 31-12-2015, 02:19
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
Important support at 1.5784 keeps holding firm protecting the downside as expected. We still need a breakout above the minor resistance-line near 1.6045 and more importantly a breakout above resistance at 1.6089 to confirm that wave ii was finally terminated and wave iii higher to at least 1.6968 is unfolding.
The risk of a breakout below 1.5784 that indicates that a decline from 1.9114 is over and a little more downside room is needed. As long as as the minor resistance line near 1.6089 protects the upside, this outcome can not be ruled out entirely.

Trading recommendation:
We will buy EUR at 1.5810 with stop and revers placed at 1.5780 or we will buy on a break above 1.6045 with stop placed at 1.5780.




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  #80  
Old 05-01-2016, 15:39
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Default Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/NZD By INSTAFOREX

Wave summary:
The first attempt to break above short term important resistance at 1.6220 failed, but it should just be a matter of time before this resistance at 1.6220 will be broken and pave the way for a continuation higher towards 1.6935.
Longer term, we are only in the very beginning of a new impulsive rally that ultimately should break above resistance at 1.9114 for a rally to at least 2.1072 and possibly even higher to 2.2304, but first let's focus on a break above 1.6220 to confirm the bottom at 1.5794 and a new impulsive rally higher.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5810 with stop placed at 1.5925. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.6000 or upon a break above 1.6220 and place stop at 1.5925.




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