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#201
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The impulsive rally from 113.11 continues to unfold nicely. The next upside target to look for is seen in the 116.19 - 116.36 area, but longer term, we continue to look for much higher levels. Short-term resistance is seen at 114.96 and then at 114.62 that should be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 115.43 for the expected rally towards 116.19. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 114.05 and will move stops higher to 114.50 securing a profit no matter what happens. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 114.96 or upon a break above 115.43 use the same stop at 114.50. |
#202
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The impulsive rally from 113.11 continues to unfold as expected. We are looking for a rally to the 116.19 - 116.36 area to complete red wave [iii] and after a small correction/consolidation towards 115.36 more upside pressure towards 118.54 will be expected. Longer term, we continue to expect higher levels, as we regard the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 as complete with the test of 109.48. If this count is correct, then a rally to above 149.56 should ultimately be seen. We are long EUR from 114.05 and will move our stop higher to 114.90. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 115.36 and use the same stop at 114.90. |
#203
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
Red wave [iv] moved slightly lower than the expected 115.44 (the low has been seen at 115.07). Holding nicely above 114.94, it keeps our impulsive count alive for the final rally in red wave [v] towards 116.63 and possibly even 117.60 before completing this impulsive rally. This is calling for a correction back to 115.07 from where the next impulsive rally could begin. Even though we expect a correction from 117.60, we do not recommend anyone going short as we have entered wave three higher and it can begin accelerating any time now. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 114.05 and will move our stop higher to 115.45 once minor resistance at 116.16 is broken and take profit will be placed at 117.50. If you are not long EUR already wait for the next correction to 115.07 before entering long. |
#204
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The break below minor support at 114.98 questioned the previous count and we have instead adopted an even more long term bullish count. This count shows that we completed blue wave (i) at 116.37 and the ongoing corrective decline is blue wave (ii). This count remains valid as long as we stay above support at 113.11. Focusing on blue wave (ii) it does not yet look complete, calling for a move closer to 113.48 before the next possible low. That said, remember that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but never ever is allowed to break below the starting point of the first wave. Trading recommendation: Our stop at 114.90 was hit for a nice profit. We will buy EUR again at 113.50 with stop placed at 113.05. |
#205
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY found a floor at 113.80, so the important support at 113.11 remains safe for now. A quick break above minor resistance at 115.68 and more importantly a break above resistance at 116.37 is needed to confirm the impulsive count. A failure to break above minor resistance at 115.68 will keep several possibilities open. One is that blue wave (ii) need one more decline to just below 113.80, but not below 113.11 and then a new impulsive rally higher. That said, a break below 113.11 will shift the count towards the triangle consolidation and one more decline to below 109.49. As this is still very much an open game, we will have to stay flexible. Trading recommendation: We will keep our buy-order at 113.50, but will place a stop+revers at 113.05. We will also place a buy order at 116.40 (one order done cancels the other). |
#206
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
It's time for the moment of truth here. A break above the resistance-line near 115.85 and more importantly above resistance at 116.37 will open up the upside and confirm our bullish view for a rally to 118.47 and 122.00.
The alternate count remains possible as long as resistance at 116.37 stays untouched, but it will take a break below 113.90 to add confidence in this count, while a break below 113.11 confirms the triangle count. Trading recommendation: We will move our stop to 115.15. If this stop is hit, then we will re-buy EUR at 114.70 with stop placed at 113.85 |
#207
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The trading range is narrowing consistently and we know that times like these is followed by high volatility. As long as minor support at 113.90 and more importantly support at 113.11 is able to protect the downside, we will remain cautious bullish for a break above 116.37 confirming a rally to 118.47 and 122.00. Only a break below 113.11 will shift the preferred count towards the alternative triangle count. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 114.70 with stop placed at 113.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then look to by a break above 115.45 and use the same stop at 113.85 |
#208
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
Ahead of the BoJ meeting today, the JPY strengthened and EUR/JPY broke support at 113.11 indicating more downside pressure, which was seen to 112.49. BoJ decided to keep its negative rates unchanged. However, it abandoned the base money target and replaced it with a set of "yield curve controls" and finally it said, that it would continue to expand the monetary base until inflation exceeds 2%. All this together has weakened the JPY, which quickly moved back above 113.11 and more importantly above 114.03, which indicates more upside towards 116.08 and above here confirms that a long-term corrective low was seen at 109.49 and new long-term rally is developing. That said, the uncertainty is huge at this point and we are currently in kind of "no man's land", where both directions still is possible. Trading recommendation: We sold at 113.10 and will take our stop here at 114.17 and buy EUR and place our stop at 112.45. |
#209
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We are currently looking for wave [iii] lower towards at least 108.58. In the short term, a break below minor support at 112.79 will indicate downside acceleration through the 112.05 low towards 108.58 and maybe even lower. We are currently in the final impulsive decline of the correction that started way back at the 149.56 high. The ideal target for this final decline is seen at 104.15, from where a strong recovery is expected. Trading recommendation: We sold EUR at 112.85 with stop placed at 114.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 112.79 and place your stop at 113.55. |
#210
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The minor correction in red wave ii completed with the test of 113.62 and we are now looking for a break below minor support at 113.13 as the first indication that wave iii lower towards at least 108.58 is developing. Longer term, we will be looking for this final decline from 149.56 to complete near 104.15 from where a new impulsive rally is expected. But for now, we will stay focused towards the downside and a break below minor support at 113.13 calling for a decline to 112.05 on the way lower to 108.58 and 104.15. Trading recommendation: We sold EUR at 112.85 with stop placed at 114.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 113.62 with stop placed at 113.70. |
#211
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
After the pair has broken out of the triangle, further downside movement towards the long-term corrective target at 104.15 is expected. Resistance at 114.40 should continue to cap the upside for a break below 112.48 and 112.05 for the next move lower towards 104.15 to complete the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally. For now, keep the focus on the downside as long as resistance at 114.40 caps the upside. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 112.85 with stop placed at 114.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell when the price breaks below 113.80 or upon a break below 113.11 and use the same stop at 114.45. |
#212
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The failure to break below support at 112.05 is disappointing and calls for a larger correction in wave [ii] and a move closer to the 114.40 - 114.55 area before wave [ii] is complete and wave [iii] takes over for a decline below 112.05 for a decline towards the ideal target near 104.15. Minor support is now found at 113.59 and only below here indicates that wave [ii] is complete and wave [iii] lower to 108.03 is developing. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 112.85. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near the 114.40 - 114.55 area and place your stop at 115.50. We will extraordinary move out stop to 115.50 too. |
#213
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The correction in wave [ii] could be complete with the test of 114.13 and the next impulsive decline closer to the ideal downside target at 104.15 could be developing. To indicate that wave [iii] lower has taken over a break below support at 113.03 should be seen. A break below support at 113.03 will call for a decline to 109.49 on the way lower to 104.15 to complete the long term corrective decline from 149.56. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 112.85 with stop placed at 115.45 upon a break below 113.00 we will move the stop lower to 114.25. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 113.03 and use the same stop at 114.25. |
#214
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The correction in wave ii is extending closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 114.54 and might even spike this resistance slightly, but wave ii should be close to completion for the next impulsive decline towards the ideal target near 104.15 to complete the long-term corrective decline from 149.56. Short term, a break below minor support at 113.59 will indicate that wave ii is complete and wave iii lower to 108.03 has taken over on the way to 104.15. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 112.85 with stop placed at 115.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 114.90 or upon a break below 113.59 and use the same stop at 115.45. |
#215
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We continue to expect support in the 115.00 - 115.25 area to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 117.55 to complete wave i of (iii). After a new correction towards close to 115.00 and if the correction in wave ii extend it could move all the way back to 113.66 before the next impulsive rally higher in wave iii of (iii). This wave higher, we will not like to miss. Trading recommendation: We are waiting for wave ii of (iii) to unfold. We will place a EUR buy-order at 113.75 with stop placed at 112.00. |
#216
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We are currently looking for wave [iv] towards 114.51 from where a new rally higher to the ideal wave [v] target at 117.09 is expected to complete the first impulsive rally of wave [iii] from 112.05. Once the impulsive rally is complete near 117.09, then look for another corrective decline in wave ii of (iii) towards 114.51 before the next impulsive rally higher to 121.24 and above. Only a break below support at 113.52 will indicate that an even more bullish count is unfolding in a series of wave one's and two's. Trading recommendation: We are looking to buy EUR at 114.60 with stop placed at 114.10. |
#217
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We still look for a break above minor resistance at 115.15 and more importantly above resistance at 115.79 which will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 119.99 and above. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 114.56 with stop placed at 113.90. If you are nor long EUR yet, then buy near 114.45 or upon a break above 115.15 and use the same stop at 113.90. |
#218
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
General overview
The weekly pivot has been tested and rejected, so the market has moved towards the 61%Fibo at the level of 113.67. This wave development does not look too much impulsive so far as there is too many overlapping sub-waves.This means that the corrective structure on higher time frames might continue to evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. The near-term bias is downward as there are still uncompleted wave structures. Trading recommendations: As long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated, day traders should consider opening sell orders as close as possible to the intraday resistance at the level of 115.15. TP level is open for now, but if the level of 114.00 is broken then the next support is seen at the level of 113.67 (61% Fibo). |
#219
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
Ideally Wednesday's low at 113.10 will continue to act as a floor for a break above 113.85 and more importantly above resistance at 114.52 that will call for a new rally to 116.28 and only above here will confirm that the bottom of the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 finally is in place with the test of 109.48. We are working with a bullish count already, but we do not yet have the final confirmation that this count is correct. A break above 116.28 will be a strong indication that this is indeed the case and call for much more upside in the longer term. Trading recommendation: We will buy a break above 113.85 and place our stop at 113.05. |
#220
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The break above the resistance-line from 116.28 is the first strong indication that the corrective decline in red wave ii completed at 112.57 and red wave iii to above 116.28 now is developing. A break above resistance at 114.52 will confirm that red wave ii completed at 112.57, and that red wave iii higher to 116.28 and above is developing. Our preferred long term count continues to support that the corrective decline from 149.56 completed at 109.48 and that a new impulsive rally is developing. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 112.95 and will move our stop higher to 113.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 113.84 or upon a break above 114.52, and use the same stop at 113.20 |
#221
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
A break above important short-term resistance at 114.52 seems to be imminent. A clear break above 114.52 will confirm continuation to 116.28 and above towards 118.47 and 122.00. Short term, support is seen near 114.16 which we expected will act as a floor for the rally higher to 116.28 and above. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 112.95 and will move our stop higher to 113.60. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 114.52 and use the same stop at 113.60. |
#222
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The rally higher towards important resistance at 116.28 continues to unfold as expected. We however, need a firm break above this resistance to confirm more upside towards 118.47 and 122.00. We still favor this to be seen as the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 that is expected to have completed with the test of 122.84. A new impulsive rally higher is now developing. Short-term, support is seen at 115.06 and again at 114.67. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 112.95 and will move our stop higher to 114.50. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 115.06 or upon a break above resistance at 116.28 and use the same stop at 114.50. |
#223
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The failure to take out resistance at 116.28 is somewhat disappointing, but we will expect support near 113.75 to be able to act as a floor for the next impulsive rally above 116.28 confirming more upside towards 118.47 and 122.00. Only an unexpected break below important support at 112.05 will invalidate the bullish outlook. Trading recommendation: Our stop at 114.67 was hit for a nice profit. We will look for a new buying opportunity near 113.75. |
#224
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We would prefer to see one final decline closer to the 61.8% corrective target of the rally from 112.57 to 115.68 at 113.75 to complete red wave [ii] for the next impulsive rally above 115.68 and more importantly above resistance at 116.23 that will call for a continuation higher to 118.60 and 122.00 as the next upside targets. That said, a direct break above 114.73 will indicate that the correction in red wave [ii] completed early and the next impulsive rally in red wave [iii] towards 118.60 is unfolding. Trading recommendation: We will re-buy EUR at 113.85 or upon a break above 114.73 (one order done cancels the other) |
#225
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We continue to expect that support at 1.5066 will act as a floor for a break above minor resistance at 1.5266 that will call for a new rally to and ideally above resistance at 1.5454 for more upside pressure towards 1.5764. Only an unexpected break below 1.5066 will invalidate the bullish outlook here, but even if the price breaks below 1.5066, the expected potential downside seems very limited here. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.5145 with stop placed at 1.5060. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 1.5266 and use the same stop at 1.5060. |
#226
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
Red wave [ii] did turn into the expanded flat correction we warned about yesterday. With red wave [ii] complete at 113.70, we should expect a strong impulsive rally in red wave [iii], that is expected to extend higher to at least 118.71 with 122.00 as the next major upside target. Short-term, we expect minor support at 114.07 will be able to protect the downside for the next rally above 115.40 and more importantly above 116.02 confirming the rally higher to 118.71. Trading recommendation: Our stop at 113.90 was hit. We will re-buy EUR upon a break above 115.04 and place stop below 113.65. |
#227
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
General overview
The market is still trading inside the range of wave 1, so the beginning of this wave will now become an invalidation level for the impulsive count. In this impulsive scenario, the level of 116.00 cannot be violated first and the price should fall towards the intraday support at the level of 113.70 in the impulsive fashion. The low of the wave (a) at the level of 112.59 should be violated next. Trading recommendations: The impulsive structure in wave (b) is now completed, so now the wave (c) to the downside should be developed. Day traders should consider opening only sell orders with SL just above the recent local high at the level of 116.05. |
#228
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
Important resistance (neckline for the inverse S/H/S bottom) at 116.28 is currently being tested and once it is broken clearly, upside acceleration towards 118.47 and 122.00 should be seen. A break above 116.28 will confirm that the long term correction from 149.56 finally completed with the test of 109.48 and a new long-term impulsive rally is building. Support is seen at 115.70, which we expect will protect the downside for the test and break above 116.28 for more upside acceleration. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 115.04 and will move our stop to break-even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 115.70 or upon a break above 116.28 and use the same stop at 115.04. |
#229
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
After a backtest of the broken resistance line, that is now acting as support, a continuation higher to 118.60 is expected. A break above resistance at 117.49 will confirm the rally higher to 118.60 and possibly even higher to 122.00. Ideally support at 116.22 will continue to act as a floor for the next impulsive rally higher. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 115.04 with stop placed at 116.04. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 116.75 or upon a break above 117.49 and use the same stop at 116.04. |
#230
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 117.49 to confirm more upside pressure towards 118.59 and 122.00 as the next upside targets. A clear break above 117.49 will also mean a clear break above the pitchfork mid-line and give us a 80% likelihood of a continuation higher to the pitchfork resistance line, which is currently seen near 121.60. Short term, support is seen at 116.60 and should ideally protect the downside for the break above 117.49. If support at 116.60 fails to protect the downside, more sideways consolidation should be expected. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 115.04 with stop placed at 116.04. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 117.49 and place your stop at 116.50. |
#231
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The 118.59 target remains in focus. After a minor correction, more upside towards 122 will be expected. Only a direct break below minor support at 117.36 indicates that red wave iii is already in place and red wave iv towards 116.62 is developing. The rally from 113.70 is loosing upside momentum and a minor top should soon be expected. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 115.04 with stop placed at 117.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait to buy the expected correction. |
#232
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY is finally accelerating higher, having broken above resistance at 118.60. The pair is now testing the next target near 119.42. The rally from 113.70 is becoming a bit extended now, but only a break below minor support at 118.46 will indicate that red wave iii is complete and red wave iv is unfolding for a correction towards 116.37. In the short term, the next resistance at 119.42 is likely to be broken too. Then the next target to look for is seen at 121.03 with the next major target expected at 122.00. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 115.04 and will move our stop higher to 118.40. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy the next correction. |
#233
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary
Red wave iii most likely peaked with the test of 120.16. A correction towards at least 118.64 and likely even closer to 117.69 should now be expected in red wave iv before red wave v takes over for the next rally higher towards 122.00. Short term, a break below 119.15 confirms that red wave iii is complete and that red wave iv now is unfolding for a corrective decline. Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 115.04 and will move our stop higher to 119.10. We will re-buy EUR at 117.75 and place the stop at 117.25. |
#234
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The expected correction from 120.16 is now unfolding. We have almost seen a test of the 23.6% corrective target at 118.64, but will likely to see a little more correction closer to 117.69 before the next impulsive rally towards 122.00 is expected. Short term, only a direct break above minor resistance at 120.00 will indicate that the correction in red wave iv has completed early and the next impulsive rally in red wave v is developing. Trading recommendation: Our stop at 119.10 was hit for a nice profit of 406 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 117.75 with stop placed at 116.75. |
#235
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The correction from 120.16 is turning into a flat correction. We have seen wave a and b and now needs wave c lower to at least 118.52 and possibly even lower to 117.69 to complete red wave iv and set the stage for the next impulsive rally higher in red wave v. The ideal target for red wave v is seen near 122.00. Short-term, a break below minor support at 119.43 will confirm that wave c of red wave iv is developing. Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 118,65 with stop placed at 117.30 for the final rally higher towards 122.00. |
#236
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
A test of the pitchfork resistance-line near 121.95 is now being seen. This is close to the (iv) top at 122.00 seen on June 23. Ideally a small spike just above 122.00 will be seen, but we have entered an area, from where a wave (iv) correction towards at least 119.76 and more likely closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 118.39 could be seen anytime now. We are only looking for a correction in wave (iv). As the correction in wave (ii) was a simple zig-zag, wave (iv) should turn into some kind of flat correction or a triangle consolidation giving us more of a sideways trading area. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 121.85 with stop placed at 122.85. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 122.00 or upon a break below 121.54 and use the same stop at 122.85. |
#237
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The break above resistance at 121.89 invalidated the expected triangle consolidation and instead told us that an expanded flat is unfolding. If this count is correct, then the high seen at 123.19 should cap the upside for a break below minor support at 122.04 for a decline towards the 118.00 - 118.39 area to completed wave (iv) and set the stage for the final rally in wave (v) towards 124.04. This will complete wave (v) and 3 and call for a new correction in wave 4 towards 118.39 before higher again. Trading recommendation: We will sell EUR upon a break below minor support at 122.04 with stop placed at 123.25 take profit will be placed at 118.45. |
#238
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We continue to look for wave c lower towards the 118.00 - 118.38 area to complete wave (iv) and set the stage for the next impulsive rally higher to 123.33 and likely closer to 124.49 to complete wave 3. Short term, a break below support at 121.89 to trigger the expected decline in wave c of (iv) towards the 118.00 - 1118.38 area. Only an unexpected break above minor resistance at 122.94 will delay the expected decline for a move closer to 123.68 before wave (iii) is complete. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 122.04 with stop placed at 123.00. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below support at 121.89 and use the same stop at 123.00. |
#239
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
The announcement of the ECB tapering also caused a decline in this cross. The break below the former low at 1.4737 has revived the downtrend within the ending diagonal and a possible continuation lower toward max.1.4590. From closer to 1.4590 or upon a direct break above 1.5092 a rally toward 1.5837 will be expected. Trading recommendation: Our break-even stop was hit. We will buy EUR at 1.4610 or upon a break above 1.5092 with stop placed at 1.4585. |
#240
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Re: Daily technical analysis of EUR/JPY By INSTAFOREX
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a decline into the 118.00 - 118.38 support area to complete wave (iv) from where wave (v) 126.59 will be expected to complete wave (v) and 3. Short term, any break below minor support at 122.03 will indicate the expected decline in wave (iv) is unfolding, while a break below support at 121.16 will confirm the decline towards the 118.00 - 118.38 area before higher again. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 122.10 with stop placed at 123.45 and take profit at 118.50. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 122.03 and use the same stop at 123.45. |
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