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Old 23-06-2014, 13:24
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Default Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EURO LACKS DIRECTION. POUND REACHES MULTI-YEAR HIGH



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was filled with mixed data releases and price action was extremely choppy, with a lot of sharp whipsaws as a result. The week was bullish nonetheless and price closed higher, above 1.3585.


Technical Outlook
The long term uptrend has ended once the bullish trend line was broken last month but the bears have reached a barrier at 1.3500 (1.3480) and lately the pair lacks clear direction. The daily range is very low compared to how this pair usually moves and clear intraday trends are rarely seen, but considering the fact that downwards momentum has stopped, we anticipate a climb above1.3680.

Fundamental Outlook
The week ahead starts with German and French Manufacturing data releases scheduled Monday and continues Tuesday with the German Ifo Business Climate and American Consumer Confidence. These are important and leading indicators of economic health and consumer spending, with the potential to heavily influence their respective currencies.

Wednesday’s headline is the release of the US Durable Goods Orders; these goods are more expensive than normal ones because they have a life expectancy of at least three years and a higher number of orders suggest a thriving economy and increased production activity as manufacturers will work to fill the orders.

Thursday lacks major announcements and the last important event of the week is released Friday in the form of the German Consumer Price Index which accounts for a big part of the entire Euro Zone inflation and can have a strong impact on the Euro.


GBP/USD
The Pound continued to strengthen last week, breaking a multi-year high; Fed’s comments regarding a low interest rate which will be maintained for a considerable amount of time weakened the US Dollar and generated another bullish week.


Technical Outlook
The high established last week at 1.7063 will most likely act as resistance in the future and support is located at 1.6996, followed by the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily time frame has reached overbought territory and this increases the chance of a drop below the mentioned levels. Mark Carney will deliver two important speeches this week and the pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by them.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the Governor of the BOE, Mark Carney will speak in London at the Treasury Committee Hearing and Thursday he will make another public appearance by participating at a Press Conference regarding the BOE Financial Stability Report which is released at the same time. Both these events will probably have a huge impact on the pair and we are likely to see important developments this week.



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