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  #481  
Old 26-05-2016, 09:50
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FOREX NEWS: POUND BREAKS RESISTANCE, CORRECTIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF BRITISH GDP DATA



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a very choppy day yesterday, without any substantial advances to either side; this was mostly due to a lacklustre fundamental environment and the fact that the only notable indicator of the day showed a figure close to forecast.


Technical Outlook

The pair hovered above and below 1.1150 for almost the entire day and this is a sign that the bulls and bears are taking a breather and donít show much interest. We still maintain our view that a bullish retracement is coming, because the pair has travelled too far without a proper correction and both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are oversold. If the correction occurs, we are likely to see a move close to 1.1210, otherwise 1.1085 remains the target.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years and higher figures than the forecast 0.3% (previous 0.8%) show increased economic activity, potentially strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its advance, scoring another victory against the greenback and breaking 1.4650 with authority.


Technical Outlook

The break seen yesterday will probably draw in more buyers who in turn will take price higher in the long run. However, at the moment both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are overbought, calling for a bounce lower. The key resistance at 1.4765 sits in front of rising price and this combined with the position of the oscillators, will probably trigger a move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event for the Pound today is the release of the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%, same as previous. This version of the GDP has less importance than the Preliminary and more than the Final version, but usually, numbers above expectations strengthen the Pound.
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  #482  
Old 27-05-2016, 09:44
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FIGHTS BACK, FUELED BY U.S. GDP DATA


EUR/USD

Forex News: The release of the Durable Goods orders whipsawed the market and we saw US Dollar weakness although the indicator posted much better than expected numbers. The pairís climb was partly due to technical reasons as well.


Technical Outlook

Price breached the resistance at 1.1210 and almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but is already showing signs of weakness. Downside movement is likely to resume but a close above 1.1210 and the 50 EMA will show that the retracement is still not over and that we will probably see a move into 1.12500. When the oscillators will start to turn south, the probability of a move lower will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released, offering an assessment of the entire economic performance in the United States. Higher numbers than the expected 0.8% usually trigger strength for the US Dollar but as seen from yesterdayís release, caution is recommended because market participants may interpret things differently. Also today, the G7 (Group of Seven) Meetings start in Kashiko Island and this is another reason for increased volatility and possibly irregular movement.


GBP/USD

The British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product released yesterday, matched analystsí expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed. The entire day lacked strong movement and the pair retreated slightly.


Technical Outlook

The bull run seems exhausted now with both Stochastic and Relative Strength Index curving downwards and coming out of overbought. This doesnít necessarily mean that we will see a strong drop but certainly increases the chances of such a move. The first lower barrier is located at 1.4650, while to the upside 1.4765 remains strong resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesnít hold anything important for the Pound, so the pairís direction will be affected by the G7 Meetings and of course, by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #483  
Old 30-05-2016, 13:01
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. BANKS CLOSED, GERMAN CPI STEALS THE SHOW



EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bears scored another victory and took price below support; the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed the anticipated change of 0.8%, which was better than the previous and this helped the US Dollar.


Technical Outlook

We expect the current move to continue until 1.1085 is touched but the Relative Strength Index is just entering oversold so a bounce higher is highly probable if the mentioned support is reached. To the upside, 1.1150 is the first potential resistance but today we are likely to have a slow day if the German inflation data doesnít show a substantial difference compared to the forecast.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Prelim Consumer Price Index is announced and this will be the main event of the day. It measures changes in inflation and higher values than the expected 0.3% (previous -0.4%) will likely strengthen the Euro. U.S. banks are closed in observance of Memorial Day and no economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The positive change posted by the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed its effect and the pair descended Friday below the immediate support at 1.4650, generating a bearish session.


Technical Outlook

We anticipate a slow day, with price trapped between the resistance at 1.4650 and the support at 1.4565. A break of these technical barriers is less likely because banks in the United Kingdom and the United States are closed due to holidays and this will trigger irregular price action and possibly alternating volatility. If price does move above or below the levels, we may be dealing with a false break, followed by a move back inside.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the UK celebrates Spring Bank Holiday and because of this, no major economic announcements are made; itís also possible that we will see choppy, irregular movement.
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  #484  
Old 31-05-2016, 10:37
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AHEAD OF EUROPEAN CPI, U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed a bullish session yesterday, with the German CPI posting an optimistic figure that aided the climb. Resistance was not threatened but price came close to it.


Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1150 is still intact and the bulls havenít made any clear attempts to break it. The current retracement may extend above the mentioned resistance and in this case, we expect the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to stop bullish momentum. However, if the EMA does not reverse the bullish action, we are likely to see an end of the medium term downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT more inflation data comes out, this time in the form of the Eurozone Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index. The indicator measures changes in the price that consumers pay for their products across Europe and under normal circumstances, higher values than the anticipated -0.1% strengthen the Euro.

On the US Dollar side we have the Consumer Confidence survey, released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a 96.1 value, compared to the previous 94.2. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households, regarding job availability and economic environment in general. Usually a higher than expected value is beneficial for the US Dollar because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending levels.


GBP/USD

Banks were closed yesterday in the US as well as in the UK so the economic calendar was blank and the pair had a choppy session.


Technical Outlook

Although price action was choppy, we can clearly see a bullish bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, with both oscillators curving upwards. This sets the stage for a break of 1.4650 but if this resistance pushes price lower, we expect a break of the 50 period EMA and another run for 1.4565 support. Until one of the two barriers is broken decisively, we are likely to see continued choppiness.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre economic calendar today, without major releases so the main focus will be on the technical aspect and on the U.S. survey.
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  #485  
Old 01-06-2016, 04:34
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FOREX NEWS: BULLS FADE AWAY, MARKING THE END OF THE RETRACEMENT



EUR/USD

Forex News: European inflation data showed the expected reading so the event didnít create strong movement; on the other hand, the US Consumer Confidence survey showed a disappointing value but shortly after the initial impact, the pair moved lower.


Technical Outlook

The pair showed bullish action in the first part of yesterdayís trading session, moving above the resistance at 1.1150 and close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The oscillators are showing good upwards momentum so itís very possible to see a break of the EMA and a consequent move into 1.1210; however, a bearish cross of the Stochastic would be an early warning that the bears are trying to regain control. If the pair stays below 1.1150, we expect a touch of 1.1085.

Fundamental Outlook

The most notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The survey shows the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business conditions and overall activity in the said sector, acting as a leading indicator of economic health. Higher numbers than the anticipated 50.5 usually trigger US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed day yesterday, bouncing perfectly at support and then failing to move past resistance and moving lower again.


Technical Outlook

The bounce close to 1.4730 and then the failure to move again above 1.4650 shows clear bearish pressure, so today we expect to see a move into 1.4525, followed by 1.4475. The Stochastic is starting to curve downwards, same as the Relative Strength Index and the bulls showed several times they lack the strength to move the pair above key resistance. All this makes our bias for the day bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT British manufacturing data comes out in the form of the Manufacturing PMI. Same as the same indicator for the United States, this one acts as a leading indicator of economic performance and is derived from the opinions of surveyed purchasing managers form said sector. Higher numbers than the forecast 49.6 are beneficial for the Pound and can take the pair higher.
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  #486  
Old 02-06-2016, 13:17
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE ECB RATE ANNOUNCEMENT AND PRESS CONFERENCE!



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved on a bullish path for most of yesterdayís trading session but better than expected U.S. Manufacturing data brought dollar strength later in the afternoon, generating another bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


Technical Outlook

Price lacks a clear bias and market participants seem reluctant to commit to a direction but if the pair remains above 1.1150, we are likely to see a break of the 50 period EMA and a move into 1.1210. The oscillators show mixed signals so the entire picture is blurry, probably because the ECB interest rate decision is approaching and traders wait for the result as well as for Mario Draghiís press conference.

Fundamental Outlook


At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will announce their decision regarding the interest rate. No change from the current 0.00% is expected but the event will surely generate market volatility. Soon after the release, at 12:30 pm GMT, Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB will hold the usual press conference during which he answers journalistsí questions. This conference is likely to generate even stronger movement than the rate announcement so caution is recommended.

At 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into the U.S jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government. Higher numbers than the forecast 177K usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The bears continued their assault and the pair dropped, breaking immediate support levels. The British Manufacturing PMI came out better than anticipated but the difference was insignificant and the Pound did not have a strong reaction.


Technical Outlook

The current bearish move is in need of a retracement as shown by the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. If the current support level at 1.4400 is broken, we donít expect the same to happen to 1.4350 and instead the chances of a bounce north will be increased once or if price gets there.

Fundamental Outlook

British construction data comes out at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Construction PMI, a survey of about 170 purchasing managers who are asked to rate the level of business conditions and the overall health of the said sector. Usually, numbers above the forecast 51.9 bring Pound strength but if the actual number is close to analystsí expectations, we may see a muted impact.
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  #487  
Old 03-06-2016, 03:11
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FOREX NEWS: ITíS NFP DAY! THE US DOLLAR PREPARES FOR STRONG SWINGS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the ECB decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.00% and the pair showed irregular movement at the time of release as well as during Mario Draghiís press conference.


Technical Outlook

Price bounced perfectly at 1.1210 resistance and moved back below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, currently testing the support at 1.1150. Todayís price action will be heavily influenced by the fundamental aspect but from a strictly technical perspective we expect a break of nearby support (1.1150) and a move into 1.1085; this view is supported by the position of the Stochastic (overbought), the direction of the Relative Strength Index and by the fact that the downtrend is intact.

Fundamental Outlook

The most anticipated U.S. jobs report is released today at 12:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls. The report tracks the change in the number of new jobs created during the previous month and almost always triggers huge movement. More jobs are indicative of increased levels of consumer spending in the near future and thatís why higher numbers than the forecast 159K usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

British Construction data was lower than analysts had anticipated but the difference was not substantial and the pair bounced at support, retracing higher.


Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.4400 should be considered just a retracement, generated by the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. We expect downwards movement to resume soon, especially if the barrier at 1.4475 cannot be breached to the upside. The U.S. jobs data will have a strong impact and we believe the technical aspect will be secondary today.

Fundamental Outlook

The final survey in the series of three is released today at 8:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector regarding overall business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The forecast is 52.5 and under normal circumstances, the Pound is positively affected by higher values.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #488  
Old 03-06-2016, 07:13
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  #489  
Old 06-06-2016, 06:13
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FOREX NEWS: ďRUBBER BANDĒ EFFECT IN PLAY, US DOLLAR FIGHTS BACK



EUR/USD

Forex News: Fridayís highlight was of course the release of the Non-Farm Employment Change report that showed only 38K new jobs, while the forecast was 159K. This huge difference weakened the US Dollar and elevated the pair for more than 200 pips.


Technical Outlook

The effects of the NFP release will be seen throughout todayís session but usually a strong move like the one seen Friday is followed by a retracement lower or at least a period of sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought and the Stochastic will soon follow (this indicator is slower than the RSI and thatís the reason why it is not yet overbought) so we expect a bounce lower once or if 1.1385 is reached. This potential dip should be regarded as a retracement, not a reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Factory Orders come out, showing changes in the value of orders placed with manufacturers. The indicator doesnít create strong movement usually but as a rule of thumb, higher values than the forecast -0.4% (previous 1.9%) strengthen the Euro.

Later in the day, at 4:30 pm GMT, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak at a luncheon in Philadelphia on the topics of monetary policy and economic outlook. As always, caution is recommended during speeches of heads of central banks, because the respective currency can show irregular movement.


GBP/USD

The Pound also benefited from a worse than expected NFP and the pair climbed on the back of a weak Dollar; however, the move up was not as drastic as the one seen on EUR/USD.


Technical Outlook

After breaching 1.4565 the pair retraced lower and is now currently testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is a clear sign of weakness and shows that even with disappointing U.S. data, the Pound cannot make substantial advances above key levels. If the pair remains below the 50 period EMA and below 1.4525, we expect to see a move closer to 1.4475.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is blank for the Pound today so the main focus will be on the technical aspect. Keep an eye on Yellenís speech as this can also affect the pairís movement.
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  #490  
Old 07-06-2016, 01:23
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FOREX NEWS: BREXIT FEARS SHAKE THE MARKET



EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday was a slow day, without any substantial advances to either side and this was mostly because the pair was in need of a breather after the huge rally seen Friday.


Technical Outlook

The pair moved sideways for most of yesterday but we expect this behavior to change and the upside movement to resume. The greenback is still suffering from the effects of the disappointing NFP report and currently cannot drag the pair lower. However, the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are overbought and price did not retrace after the massive climb, so we may see a move below 1.1335. If this support holds, we expect price to move above 1.1385.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is slow and the only notable economic indicator is the German Industrial Production, released early at 6:00 am GMT. This indicator tracks changes in the total value of output generated by mines, manufacturers and utilities. The expected change is 0.8% compared to the previous -1.3% and higher values usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is often muted.


GBP/USD

The focus shifted yesterday towards the Pound as Brexit fears escalated. Polls showed that more people favor a separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union and this triggered a drop that erased all of Fridayís gains.


Technical Outlook

The week opened with a gap and usually gaps are closed (meaning that price will move back to where the gap originated) but the time period needed for that cannot be known in advance. Also the pair bounced at 1.4350 support and the US Dollar is weak so itís very possible to see a move into 1.4475 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, price direction will continue to be affected by Brexit talks so extra caution is recommended because as we can see, movement is very mixed.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major economic indicators on the schedule today so price direction will depend on the technical aspect and on the Brexit situation.
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  #491  
Old 08-06-2016, 03:14
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FOREX NEWS: EURO PREPARES BREAKOUTS, POUND IN LIMBO AFTER ĎFAT FINGERí SPECULATION



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had another choppy trading session, with price confined between 1.1385 resistance and 1.1335 support; the German Industrial Production numbers matched analystsí expectations so the impact was minimal.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at 1.1385 resistance and now appears to be headed lower, with both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index favouring such a scenario. Keep in mind that periods of small, ranging movements are often followed by strong breakouts and the bulls have the latest momentum so itís very possible to see a move above 1.1385.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is very slow for both the Euro and the US Dollar in terms of economic releases so the main focus will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Early yesterday the Pound-Dollar experienced a massive spike up but a clear reason is not yet known. The move is attributed to a so called ďfat fingerĒ (human error in introducing the right position size) or a trading algorithm failing to work as intended.


Technical Outlook

Itís a weird time for this pair and extra caution should be used because the combination of Brexit talks and sudden spikes without apparent reason can wipe out stops in an instant. So far the resistance at 1.4650 is still holding but 1.4565 was broken several times; to the downside we have 1.4525 as immediate support, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the latter is touched, we expect a bounce higher and a move above 1.4565, which will open the door for 1.4650 once again.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Manufacturing Production, which is an indicator that tracks changes in the overall output generated by the manufacturing sector. Since this sector is a key part of the British economy, higher numbers than the forecast 0.1% usually strengthen the Pound.
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  #492  
Old 09-06-2016, 10:00
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FOREX NEWS: EURO JITTERY AS ECBíS DRAGHI DUE TO SPEAK IN BRUSSELS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally picked up some speed and we experienced a bullish break of 1.1385. This opens the door for 1.1450 and prepares us for more upside movement.


Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is still overbought and this calls for a move south. Of course, the bulls just managed to break 1.1385 after a period of sideways movement and this means that the next target is the resistance at 1.1450 but once this level is reached, we expect a stronger retracement to the downside, which will probably clear the overbought condition of the oscillator.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the Brussels Economic Forum and this will be the only major event of the day. The speech will have a higher impact if the President will touch on the topic of the financial markets but either way, volatility may rise so, as always during such speeches, caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its jerky movement and created a whipsaw yesterday when the Manufacturing Production was released (forecast 0.0%, actual 2.3%).


Technical Outlook

The move below 1.4525 couldnít be sustained and the pair found support on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, bouncing higher after touching it. This shows some bullish pressure but as we can see, part of the move was reversed so the control doesnít clearly belong to either side. If price stays above 1.4565 we expect it to reach 1.4650 during the days to come, otherwise we will probably see another move into the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Goods Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a figure of -11.1B (previous -11.2B). This indicator shows the value difference between imported and exported goods and usually a higher number is beneficial for the currency but often the impact is small.
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  #493  
Old 10-06-2016, 03:35
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FIGHTS BACK, BREAKS SUPPORT



EUR/USD

Forex News: Price reversed sharply yesterday, after a brief climb above 1.1385 that couldnít be sustained. The pair was in need of a deeper retracement and thatís what we are seeing now.


Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum is strong, with full and long candles and both oscillators coming out of overbought. Thatís why we believe the move will extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly even below it. If the moving average is broken we expect a move into 1.1240 but we must not forget that the bulls still have underlying strength and price may start to move up once the 50 EMA is touched so look for signs of rejection in that area.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, which asks about 500 consumers to give their opinions on current and future economic conditions. A higher consumer confidence often suggests that consumer spending will pick up in the near future and thatís why numbers above the predicted 94.1 usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar reversed once again yesterday and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside. The pair continues to be driven by uncertainty and movement is choppy.


Technical Outlook

Although the 50 period EMA is broken, price may very well return above it so we cannot treat this as a bearish market. Movement is still jerky and most moves are quickly reversed but as long as price stays below the moving average, we slightly favor the short side for a slide towards 1.4400. If upwards momentum resumes, we expect to see a touch of 1.4565.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major releases on the Poundís schedule so we expect the technical aspect and the U.S. survey to determine price direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #494  
Old 13-06-2016, 03:09
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS ON THE BACK OF MORE BREXIT DRAMA



EUR/USD

Forex News: The last 2 days of last week belonged to the bears and we saw the US Dollar strengthen Friday even if the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed a value close to analystsí forecast.


Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart the pair has clearly moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, making the short term bias bearish. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is close to oversold and the Stochastic has already entered that territory, so we may see a move up today. Adding to the probability of this scenario is the fact that 1.1240 is very close so all this may trigger a bullish retracement that will probably find resistance at the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The day doesnít hold any major indicator releases, thus the main focus will be the technical aspect unless unscheduled events take place.


GBP/USD

Polls showed Friday that more citizens are now likely to vote for Britain to leave the European Union and this was the main cause of the huge drop. News about a potential Brexit will likely continue to overshadow economic releases and technical levels.


Technical Outlook

The pair moved through support levels like a hot knife through butter but this doesnít mean it cannot reverse direction just as quick. The levels to watch are 1.4230 where rejection was seen Friday (long wick in the lower part of the candle) and 1.4320 (1.4350) as potential resistance; the oscillators are oversold and this favours a bounce higher but the technical indicators are secondary if Brexit comes back into focus.

Fundamental Outlook

The Poundís direction will not be affected by major economic releases and similar to the Euro and US Dollar, price direction will be determined by technical analysis unless we get unexpected Brexit news.
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  #495  
Old 14-06-2016, 10:06
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FOREX NEWS: THE VOLATILE PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THE RELEASE OF U.S. RETAIL SALES, BRITISH CPI



EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday we had a slow day from an economic perspective as no major indicators were released, so price was influenced mainly by the technical aspect.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced almost perfectly at 1.1240 support and is now testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, trying to break it to the upside. The oscillators are agreeing with a break and if this comes true, we are likely to see a push into the potential resistance at 1.1335. If the bulls donít manage to break the 50 EMA, the pair is headed towards the zone around 1.1200.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Retail Sales numbers are released today at 12:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. This type of sales represent the main part of the entire consumer spending, which is the main reason why this indicator has a high impact; values above the forecast 0.4% (previous 1.3%) usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its highly volatile movement characterized by fast whipsaws and showed a strong reversal after initially moving lower.


Technical Outlook

After last weekís big drop, a bullish retracement was a likely scenario but the next move remains uncertain, considering the fundamental environment and the fact that the Brexit referendum is drawing closer. The current move may extend into 1.4350 but there we expect bearish action to resume; if the pair moves quickly below 1.4230, the next target will be represented by the minor support created at 1.4115.

Fundamental Outlook

Important British inflation data is released today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index. Current inflation is considered too low and a higher reading for todayís indicator would bring Pound strength; the forecast is a 0.4% change while the previous was 0.3%.
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  #496  
Old 15-06-2016, 06:49
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP, ITíS FED DAY



EUR/USD

Forex News: The greenback strengthened yesterday, helped by a better than expected value of the U.S. Retail Sales and as a result, we had a bearish session and support was broken.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced nicely at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower, through 1.1240 and 1.1210 support levels. The bias is bearish but the Relative Strength Index is touching its 30 level, which suggests an oversold position and favours a move back above the mentioned levels; however the Stochastic is not yes oversold so the downside may continue for a while, possibly into 1.1150 support.

Fundamental Outlook

Key events take place today and thatís why we expect price action to be choppy until the release. At 6:00 pm GMT the Fed announces their decision on the interest rate and this will be accompanied by a FOMC Rate Statement (containing details of the reasons that determined the rate decision) and followed at 6:30 pm GMT by a press conference held by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen. The rate is not expected to change this month (currently <0.50%) but any hints about a nearing hike will likely generate a lot of strong movement.


GBP/USD

British inflation numbers came out lower than analysts had anticipated, as shown by yesterdayís CPI release (actual 0.3%, forecast 0.4%) and this combined with better than expected U.S. data, generated another bearish session.


Technical Outlook

After bouncing at 1.4320 resistance the pair started to move lower, pushed by disappointing British inflation data but also by a shaky fundamental environment in the UK. However, the current move seems exhausted and both oscillators are oversold, so we may see another move north. This pair continues to carry an increased degree of risk so we recommend caution; the main levels to watch are 1.4230 and 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is announced today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show -0.1K compared to the previous -2.4K. This indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people who asked for social benefits during the previous month and usually a higher number shows a slowdown in economic activity, thus weakening the Pound.
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  #497  
Old 16-06-2016, 05:53
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT. US DOLLAR WEAKNESS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED



EUR/USD

Forex News: Ahead of the Fed release the pair showed choppy movement, with a bullish bias but the dovish speech delivered by Chairwoman Yellen weakened the greenback and drove prices higher. The rate remained unchanged as expected but the FOMC Statement showed that a potential Brexit was factored into the decision.


Technical Outlook

The current move up shows rejection at 1.1300 minor resistance and so far the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is not broken to the upside. This means that a reversal here is a distinct possibility and if that happens, we will see another run for 1.1210 (1.1200) support. A break of the moving average and the mentioned resistance will open the door for a continuation into 1.1385.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is one of the main gauges of inflation. Current inflation levels are considered too low, so a rise would most likely bring some strength to the greenback. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.4%.


GBP/USD

Price retraced higher during the first part of yesterdayís trading session but the Fed events triggered mixed reaction and choppy movement, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

Overall yesterday was a bullish day but this was expected due to the oversold condition of both oscillators and on top of that, the resistance at 1.4230 is still intact. This makes us believe that the move up was just a needed retracement, in part triggered by a dovish Fed and that price will soon resume bearish movement. Itís possible to see a test of 1.4230 resistance but if it holds, the pair is headed south, towards 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

Itís a busy day for the Pound as the British Retail Sales numbers are announced at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to show a 0.3% change while the previous was 1.3%. This type of sales represent a major part of the entire economy, thus higher numbers show increased activity and usually strengthen the Pound.

Later at 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision as well as the council memberís votes on the rate. Even if no change is expected (current 0.50%), the event almost always creates volatility so caution is recommended.
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  #498  
Old 17-06-2016, 03:50
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT SHATTERED AS THE US DOLLAR WINS THE SHORT-TERM BATTLE



EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar ignored all economic indicators and rallied sharply against most of its competitors, triggering a move south of more than 150 pips and breaking support with ease.


Technical Outlook

Yesterdayís strong move opens the door for a touch of the key support located at 1.1100 and is now clear that the US Dollar has the upper hand in this currency war. If the mentioned support is touched, we expect slight bounces to the upside, followed by a break of said level. To the upside, the first potential resistance is located at 1.1150 followed by 1.1200 and before the assault on 1.1100, we may see a test of these levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable economic indicator is the U.S. Building Permits, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show 1.15M compared to the previous 1.12M. The report shows the annualized number of building permits and acts as a leading indicator of activity in the construction sector. A higher than anticipated reading usually generates US Dollar strength but sometimes the release has a mild impact.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England maintained the rate unchanged at 0.50% and the members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to do so. After an initial period of uncertainty the pair dropped substantially lower, breaching key support.


Technical Outlook

Yesterdayís strong move and the breach of 1.4050 show that the bears are in control of the market, making us anticipate a move lower, probably towards the low at 1.3835. This move will not be completed during the course of one day (unless spectacular events take place) and price shows rejection off of 1.4050 support so we expect a pause here or even slight retracements to the upside before another attempt to clearly break 1.4050.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didnít schedule major news releases for today, thus the pairís direction will be affected by the U.S. Building Permits release and by the technical side.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #499  
Old 20-06-2016, 02:15
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FOREX NEWS: CURRENCIES ON SHAKY GROUND AS WE ENTER BREXIT WEEK



EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bullish impulse started a day before and tested the resistance at 1.1300. The week ended close to its opening price and the most important happening was the huge whipsaw that totally reversed direction.


Technical Outlook

After piercing 1.1150, price bounced and moved strongly to the upside and stopped in close vicinity of 1.1300 resistance. This irregular movement leaves little room for an accurate technical prediction so our stance is neutral until we see a clear break of either 1.1300 or 1.1240. A true break should be followed by a re-test of the level and if this happens, price is likely to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no major announcements are scheduled by either Europe or the United States so we expect a slow Monday, with price action influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound edged above resistance Friday, without any apparent reason, thus finishing the week higher. This pair continues to be high-risk and as we saw last week, all moves can be quickly reversed.


Technical Outlook

The pair sits above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control belongs to the bulls but this doesnít necessarily mean that today we will see further advances north. The resistance at 1.4350 was broken Friday so if price doesnít move below it today, we expect a touch of 1.4400. The Stochastic is overbought and the Relative Strength Index is approaching its 70 level, so a touch of 1.4400 may be followed by a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will be mainly influenced by the technical side because the United Kingdom didnít schedule major economic releases for today.
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  #500  
Old 21-06-2016, 02:41
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI AND YELLEN TAKE CENTRE STAGE, TESTIFYING ON MONETARY POLICY



EUR/USD

Forex News: The market opened with a weekly gap generated mostly by Brexit turmoil over the weekend. Throughout the day the bullish action continued until price came in close vicinity of resistance.


Technical Outlook

After the near touch of 1.1385 resistance, the pair bounced lower and is currently testing 1.1335. If the bears can take price below this level, we expect it to also move below 1.1300 to close the gap. Usually gaps are closed (price retraces to where the gap originated) but the time needed for such a move to complete is not known. The oscillators are overbought, favouring a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey comes out, expected to show a figure of 5.1, lower than the previous 6.4. This is a survey of 275 German professional investors and analysts that tries to gauge their outlook regarding economic conditions during the next 6 months; usually a higher number is beneficial for the Euro.

ECB President Mario Draghi will testify today at 1:00 pm GMT before European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee with the topic being monetary policy. Itís an important event that is likely to trigger some wild swings, depending on the Presidentís attitude and answers.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will also testify today at 2:00 pm GMT before the Senate Banking Committee on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. This is an important event and can affect the US Dollar, depending on her attitude and answers; caution is recommended because volatility may be irregular during these two events.


GBP/USD

The Pound was affected by more Brexit polls, which this time showed that the balance is slowly tipping in favour of the Ďremainí side. A big bullish gap was created and the pair continued higher throughout the day.


Technical Outlook

The recent climb took the pair into 1.4650 resistance and now both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are overbought. Under normal circumstances this would call for a bearish retracement but considering the current fundamental environment, everything is possible so our outlook is neutral and we recommend extreme caution if trading this pair.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didnít schedule major economic indicators today but any type of Brexit talk is likely to trigger strong moves. Fed Chair Yellenís speech will also have a direct impact on the pairís movement.
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  #501  
Old 22-06-2016, 13:39
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS AHEAD OF YELLENíS SECOND TESTIMONY



EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite a better than expected value for the German ZEW survey, the Euro depreciated against the US Dollar throughout yesterday. Also ECB President Draghi hinted towards adding further stimulus if needed and this aided the drop.


Technical Outlook

The weekly gap was closed yesterday and the pair slid through 1.1300 and through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, reaching 1.1240 support. The oscillators still show good downside momentum and are far from oversold so the current impulse is likely to continue below 1.1200 and towards 1.1150. On the other hand, a move above the 50 EMA will open the door for a bullish push close to 1.1335.

Fundamental Outlook

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify again today at 2:00 pm GMT, but this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and caution is recommended as her testimony is likely to influence the US Dollar although yesterday we didnít see a huge impact.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its climb and found resistance in the area around 1.4765; price action continues to be influenced by Brexit turmoil and movement is still choppy.


Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.4765 combined with the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic may trigger a move below 1.4650 and into 1.4565. As noted throughout the week, the Pound remains heavily influenced by Brexit polls and speculation so the technical aspect is secondary and our bias is neutral. Caution is still recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The pairís direction will be affected by the testimony of Fed Chair Yellen as the United Kingdom didnít schedule major indicator releases for the day.
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  #502  
Old 23-06-2016, 14:50
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FOREX NEWS: HISTORICAL DAY FOR UNITED KINGDOM AND THE EUROPEAN UNION



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair erased the losses incurred a day before and reached 1.1335 resistance but soon bounced lower during Fed Chair Yellenís testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.


Technical Outlook

The long wick seen in the upper part of the candle and the bounce at 1.1335 resistance show that the pair might be headed for 1.1240 in the near future. The first barrier in front of falling price is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as mentioned numerous times, today is a key day for the United Kingdom and for the European Union so the technical will be almost completely overshadowed.

Fundamental Outlook

Todayís price action will be heavily influenced by the Brexit referendum and all other releases will be secondary. That being said, itís still important to mention the U.S. New Home Sales scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show 561K compared to the previous 619K. The indicator tracks the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and usually higher figures are beneficial to the US Dollar but the extent is often limited.


GBP/USD

The pairís jerky movement continued yesterday as price hovered near 1.4650 before shooting up and bouncing back once 1.4765 was touched.


Technical Outlook

Considering the historical event that takes place today, our technical bias is neutral. The referendum will take centre stage and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Needless to say that the EU membership referendum is the dayís main event and that it will have a huge impact on the markets in general and the Pound in particular. The citizens of the United Kingdom will vote on whether they want UK to remain a part of the European Union or not and the general consensus is that a Ďremainí result will strengthen the Pound. However, this is not a certainty and extreme caution is advised.
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  #503  
Old 24-06-2016, 10:57
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FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH



EUR/USD

Forex News: Although at the time of writing an official result to the British referendum was not made public, the Euro and Pound climbed to new highs during the day. Volatility was high and movement irregular, as expected.


Technical Outlook

Todayís price direction will still be influenced by the effects of the referendum, so we still expect high volatility. The levels to watch are 1.1450 as resistance and 1.1335 as support but our bias remains neutral considering the shaky fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate is released at 8:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about current and future economic conditions. Under normal circumstances, higher values for this survey strengthen the Euro but todayís impact is harder to anticipate than usual; the forecast is 107.6, almost identical to the previous 107.7.

On the US Dollar side we have the release of the CORE Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This version of the indicator tracks changes in the value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years but excludes from calculation transportation items. The expected change is 0.1% and higher percentages usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair climbed in the first part of yesterday but most of the gains were negated in the afternoon. Price action was unpredictable, with massive swings.


Technical Outlook

After reaching a high at 1.4946 the pair retraced to 1.4765, with the Relative Strength Index showing overbought. However the next move remains uncertain, especially because an official result of the referendum is not yet known at the time of writing. Our position remains neutral and we recommend further caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didnít schedule major news releases but the Pound will be affected by the aftermath of the referendum.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #504  
Old 27-06-2016, 07:13
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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS STILL WEIGH THE BREXIT IMPACT



EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the official results of the Brexit referendum became public but exit polls were already showing that the ĎLeaveí side won. The reverberation in the market was huge, with both the Euro and Pound weakening severely.


Technical Outlook

After reaching the low at 1.0911 the pair retraced higher and is now hovering close to 1.1100. Considering the historical event that occurred last week, the short term direction is difficult to anticipate but thereís an overall wave of pessimism and this will probably lead to more downside movement. We may also see a slowdown compared to Fridayís price action.

Fundamental Outlook

We donít have anything important on todayís economic calendar but price action will still be heavily influenced by Britainís separation from the European Union and volatility will be irregular.


GBP/USD

The United Kingdom decided it will no longer be a part of the European Union. This will hold the headlines for quite a while and we will surely see massive swings in the near future. Friday the pair dropped more than 1,700 pips on the back of Pound weakness.


Technical Outlook

The pair retraced after reaching a low at 1.3227, which is a normal thing after such a huge move but considering the overall geopolitical environment, we expect the downside movement to resume. Volatility is still sky-high so stop losses and position sizes should be adjusted accordingly but this pair remains high risk and extreme caution should be used.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didnít schedule major news releases today so price action will be driven by the technical aspect and the aftermath of the Brexit.
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  #505  
Old 28-06-2016, 02:31
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES THE ASSAULT ON A WEAKENED POUND



EUR/USD

Forex News: The week opened lower, with a gap that was already closed during yesterdayís trading session and afterwards the pair continued south, without breaking support.


Technical Outlook

Although we saw some bullish action yesterday, overall strength belongs to the bears and the US Dollar is winning the battle. For today we expect a continuation of the down movement, probably through 1.0960 and towards the low at 1.0911 that will probably be broken in the near future. The oscillators are close to oversold but given the whole Brexit turmoil, their importance has diminished.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:00 am GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the European Central Bank Forum, in Sintra. If he touches on the UK situation, we will likely see some effect on the market and as always, caution is advised.

The U.S. Final version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 12:30 pm GMT, expected to show 1.0% change compared to the previous 0.8%. Higher values are beneficial for the greenback but the Final version is the least important so we donít expect huge movement. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT an American Consumer Confidence survey is released, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The forecast is 93.2, little changed from the previous 92.6 but higher values usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Yesterday belonged to the bears as well, and the entire day price moved lower after a big weekly gap that we donít expect to be closed soon.


Technical Outlook

Last weekís low at 1.3227 was broken yesterday and at the time of writing the pair made a new low at 1.3119. We anticipate a move lower, probably into 1.3000 area in the near term but this doesnít mean that retracements will not occur in the meantime. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both severely oversold but as stated before, this has less importance given the current situation. Volatility is still high and irregular movement still possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didnít schedule major indicator releases but an EU Summit starts today, with the UK exit as the main topic, so we expect strong movement.
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  #506  
Old 29-06-2016, 06:44
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FOREX NEWS: EU SUMMIT: EUROPEAN LEADERS DIGEST THE UK SITUATION



EUR/USD

Forex News: European leaders have met yesterday in Brussels to discuss the Brexit and the potential damage it will do to the European Union; the market recuperated some of the losses but nothing substantial. The Summit will continue today.


Technical Outlook

Uncertainty still rules the market because now there are talks about a second UK referendum and possibly a delayed separation from the EU. Yesterday the pair climbed and breached the resistance at 1.1100 but now we see clear signs of rejection and we expect downside movement to resume; if this is the case, the first notable target is 1.0960 but a move above 1.1100 will most likely take price into 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary version of the Consumer Price Index is released and expected to show a change of 0.1% compared to the previous 0.3%. Usually this is an important release but today the EU Summit will continue in Brussels and EU leaders will discuss United Kingdomís separation from the European Union so we expect this to be the highlight of the day and to influence the pair more than the indicator mentioned earlier.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday and volatility remained high but movement slowed down compared to the previous days.


Technical Outlook

The current climb may extend into the next resistance located at 1.3483 but once and if price gets there, we expect it to start moving on a bearish path again. The first target is 1.3227, followed by the historical low at 1.3119. The oscillators are just exiting oversold, favouring a move into 1.3483 but like weíve mentioned yesterday, the position of the oscillators is not a clear indication of future direction and it doesnít hinder a drop even before 1.3483 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The EU Summit will be todayís main market mover as the United Kingdom didnít schedule important economic releases.
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  #507  
Old 30-06-2016, 08:28
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FOREX NEWS: BREXIT FALLOUT BRINGS FED RATE SPECULATION



EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar weakened yesterday and this allowed the pair to move up, breaking 1.1100 resistance. Most of the dollar weakness was generated by speculation that the Fed will not raise rates until 2018 to prevent a deeper impact of the UK exit.


Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1100 opens the door for a move into 1.1150. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity of the latter level and the two combined will create a confluent zone of resistance that will possibly become a good place for the pair to resume downside movement. Of course the geopolitical aspect still remains the most important and price direction will depend mostly on that rather than technical support and resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Flash Estimate version of the Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and is expected to show a 0.0% change from the previous -0.1%. The release may be mostly overlooked by market participants, especially if the actual value matches analystsí prediction but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound recuperated some of the losses and moved higher yesterday, mostly on the back of weakness in the US Dollar, generated by speculation about Fed rates.


Technical Outlook

It appears as the weekly gap will be closed soon and the pair may find resistance around 1.3655. If this happens, we expect the bears to regain control of price action and the pair to move below 1.3483; the Stochastic is approaching overbought and this adds to the possibility of movement south. The pair remains high risk.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be released today at 8:30 am GMT. This indicator acts as an overall gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important. Nonetheless, higher values than the previous 0.4% can strengthen the Pound but the extent should be limited.
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  #508  
Old 01-07-2016, 15:32
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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, BEARS READY TO TAKE BACK CONTROL



EUR/USD

Forex News: European inflation showed slight improvement yesterday and this initially strengthened the Euro, taking the pair into resistance, where the bullish momentum faded and rejection was seen.


Technical Outlook

The resistance level at 1.1150 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average created a strong confluence zone that rejected price lower yesterday. The Stochastic shows a bearish cross close to its overbought level and this, combined with the rejection seen at 1.1150, sets the stage for a drop towards 1.0960. On the other hand, if a four hour candle closes above 1.1100, we might see another attempt to break 1.1150 and the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The dayís only notable economic release is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector and usually acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Todayís expected value is 51.3, same as previous and higher numbers can bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Price action slowed down yesterday and the pair started ranging on the lower time frames. After a timid move above 1.3483, price returned below this level.


Technical Outlook

The bullish retracement seems exhausted as shown by the return below 1.3483 and this suggests that the bears may step back in, attempting to move the pair towards 1.3227. The Pound is still weakened by UKís decision to leave the European Union and this favours moves south, probably towards 1.3000 in the medium term. A clear close above 1.3483 would make 1.3655 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Purchasing Managersí Index is released and the anticipated value is 50.0, almost unchanged from the previous 50.1. Higher numbers are indicative of optimism and may strengthen the Pound to a limited extent.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #509  
Old 04-07-2016, 12:50
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FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR IRREGULAR VOLATILITY AS THE U.S. CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY


EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI released Friday showed a value of 53.2, better than the forecast 51.3 but despite this, the pair climber for most of the day, breaching resistance.


Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a long upper wick appeared on the candle that breached the line. This is a sign of rejection that makes us anticipate a drop through 1.1100 and into the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. If 1.1100 support rejects price, we expect a break of the 50 period EMA and 1.1150 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Itís Independence Day so banks across the United States will be closed and volatility will be affected, especially in the New York session. On the Euro side things are slow as well so we may have an overall ranging day.


GBP/USD

The pair moved back into support but momentum faded and it looks like now both bulls and bears are undecided about the next direction. The economic indicators released Friday went mostly unnoticed.


Technical Outlook

The sideways movement seen Friday is likely to continue today so we expect the pair to remain between 1.3227 and 1.3483. On the other hand, a bearish break of 1.3227 support will probably extend into the low at 1.3119. Price direction will also be influenced by the economic data released but the New York session will probably lack major developments due to Independence Day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released, showing the state of the construction sector as perceived by about 170 purchasing managers. The anticipated value is 50.6, slightly lower than the previous 51.2; higher numbers show optimism and usually send the Pound higher.
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  #510  
Old 05-07-2016, 13:32
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON POUND AS BOE RELEASES FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT



EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and this was mostly due to the fact that U.S banks were closed, celebrating Independence Day and on the Euro side no major indicators were released either.


Technical Outlook

The only notable move seen yesterday was a bounce at the bullish trend line. However, at the time of writing, this bounce hasnít generated a break of resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, running through price. If bullish momentum picks up and 1.1150 is surpassed, we expect a move into 1.1240 during the days to come but this will depend a lot on the economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Factory Orders are released today at 2:00 pm GMT. This is an indicator with a mild impact, that measures changes in the value of orders placed with manufacturers. Higher numbers than the forecast -0.7% usually bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Pound-Dollar had a slow day, with sideways movement and no major developments.


Technical Outlook

Price remained above 1.3227, moving sideways for the most part of yesterday and this type of behavior usually suggests that a strong move (breakout) is in the making. However, the direction of this potential breakout is hard to anticipate so keep an eye on 1.3227 because a close below it will likely push price into 1.3119. To the upside, 1.3483 remains the first level of interest and although itís a long travel, price may be able to complete it if volatility is generated by todayís fundamental developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will make public the Financial Stability Report and half an hour later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the report. This document contains the Bankís point of view regarding overall stability and risks in the financial sector and may contain hints about the direction of monetary policy. The report combined with Carneyís press conference can generate strong movement and potentially irregular price action.
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  #511  
Old 06-07-2016, 09:34
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FOREX NEWS: THE WATERFALL CONTINUES: POUND STRUGGLES TO FIND SUPPORT



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued its slow movement yesterday but remained above the bullish trend line. The U.S. Factory Orders came out close to analystsí expectations and the event did not generate strong impact.


Technical Outlook

Yesterdayís price action crated minor resistance at 1.1186; if this barrier is surpassed soon, we expect a touch of 1.1240 but currently price is testing the bullish trend line and we may see a breakout. If 1.1150 holds and the trend line is broken, we will likely see a move into 1.1100 and even lower. The pair has been moving north for a few days but candles are small and now long wicks appear in their upper side. This is a sign of rejection, thus we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The Fed will release today at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details of their latest meeting and insights into the reasoning that determined the most recent rate decision. More importantly, this document may contain hints about future direction of monetary policy and if this is the case, the US Dollar will move strongly so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound resumed bearish action yesterday after a period of sideways movement and continued to depreciate to a low of 1.3050. The Financial Stability Report and Carneyís press conference did not help an already weak Pound to rebound.


Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair had reached a low at 1.3050, breaking the levels seen immediately after the Brexit vote on June 23. This low will probably be surpassed soon and we expect our target of 1.3000 to be reached today. The pair is likely to pause or bounce higher near this strong psychological support but the bullish side is clearly very weak now and the possibility of extended moves north is slim. First resistance may be provided by the zone around 1.3120.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will be affected today by the technical side and by the U.S. events as the United Kingdom did not schedule major economic releases.
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  #512  
Old 07-07-2016, 07:47
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FOREX NEWS: WITNESSING HISTORY: POUND BELOW 1.2800



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair broke the bullish trend line ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and once those were released, price moved up to test the recently broken 1.1100. Most of the dollar weakness was generated by the fear that Brexit turbulences may hinder future economic growth.


Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing 1.1100 resistance after showing rejection near 1.1025 but even if resistance is broken, we donít expect a strong move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The overall bias is bearish considering the geopolitical situation, so we expect a break of 1.1025 minor support and a move towards 1.0960. As an alternate scenario, a break of the 50 period EMA will likely take price above 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is not as important as the Government released data that comes out a day after but still, higher numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the US Dollar. The forecast for todayís release is a change of 158K compared to the previous 173K.


GBP/USD

The Pound is still struggling to find support but failed to do so yesterday and the waterfall continued, with a new low being created at 1.2796.


Technical Outlook

Weíve seen another huge drop and a new low created at 1.2796 but signs of rejection have appeared. The massive drop calls for a bullish retracement and both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are oversold, favouring a move up. This being said, the overall bias is clearly bearish and all moves north should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, showing changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector. The expected change is -1.2% compared to the previous 2.3% and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound but under present conditions, we donít expect a strong impact.
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  #513  
Old 08-07-2016, 11:56
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FOREX NEWS: ENDING A WILD WEEK WITH A BANG: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS



EUR/USD

Forex News: The jobs data released yesterday by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) showed slight improvement compared to previous readings but the event did not have a major impact and the pair ranged for most of the day.


Technical Outlook

It looks like price found strong resistance at 1.1100 so now we expect it to star moving lower, towards 1.1025. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also above price, angled downwards and this increases the chances of extended moves south but a lot will depend on the American jobs data thatís about to be released.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Non-Farm Payrolls report is released, showing the change in the number of employed people in the U.S.. This is widely regarded as the most important indicator for the jobs market in the U.S and higher numbers show increased economic activity and suggest that consumer spending will pick up in the near future. The expected number is 174K, a huge increase from last monthís 38K and anything close or above this value will likely strengthen the US Dollar. Volatility usually increases and caution is always advised.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday, which was expected after another massive drop. The greenback wasnít affected a lot by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and overall price action was slow compared to the previous days.


Technical Outlook

The current climb may extend into the zone around 1.3100 but once and if that happens, we expect the bears to step in and take back control. Itís also possible to see a drop even before 1.3100 is reached but either way, the first bearish target is represented by the 1.2800 zone. A break of the historical low created at 1.2796 will probably trigger an extended move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The pairís direction will be heavily influenced by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side there are no major announcements.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #514  
Old 11-07-2016, 12:41
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FOREX NEWS: MARKET IN A RANGE AS INDECISION DRIVES SHORT-TERM PRICE ACTION



EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. employment showed great improvement as seen from Fridayís NFP that posted a number of 287K, compared to the forecast 175K. However, most of the new jobs were created in the lowest paying sectors and this triggered a whipsaw that took price higher.


Technical Outlook

Price jumped up and down at the time of the NFP release but still remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. There is a great degree of indecision as shown by the long wicks of the NFP candle, so we expect the pair to remain between the 50 EMA and 1.1025 for most of todayís trading session. As an alternate scenario, a break of either one of these technical levels will likely trigger an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings are todayís only notable event but these are closed to the press and a formal statement will be released once they have completed. Sometimes, participants talk to press representatives during the day and usually that is a reason for volatility but unless important matters are discussed, we donít expect strong movement.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow session Friday compared to the previous days and at the NFP release it behaved erratically, jumping up and down.


Technical Outlook

The pair is capped to the upside by 1.3050 and to the downside by 1.2880; these are minor levels of resistance and support and we expect price to remain between them for the most part of todayís trading session. A bullish break of 1.3050 will open the door for 1.3119 and if 1.2880 is surpassed, we expect 1.2796 to be hit. This being said, we donít believe that price will surpass the outside levels (1.3119 or 1.2796) during todayís trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events on todayís calendar so we expect price action to be influenced mainly by the technical aspect.
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  #515  
Old 12-07-2016, 12:42
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: POUND STILL IN THE FOCUS AS BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TESTIFIES



EUR/USD

Forex News: The economic calendar was light yesterday and the Eurogroup Meetings didnít bring any major news developments so overall the trading session was slow and ranging.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced close to 1.1025 but the bulls didnít manage to take price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This shows that the market is still ruled by indecision and makes our bias neutral until either 1.1025 support or the 50 period EMA is broken. Once this happens, we expect the market to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day from a fundamental standpoint as no major indicators are released. Price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Price remained in a relatively tight range yesterday and didnít move past support or resistance. This was mostly due to a lacklustre fundamental scene.


Technical Outlook

Today we anticipate a break of the channel created between 1.3050 resistance and 1.2880 support but the direction is difficult to predict, given the sideways movement seen lately. Of course the big picture is still very bearish but this doesnít exclude some bullish movement which can find resistance at the confluence zone created by 1.3120 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a break of 1.2880 will probably trigger a move below 1.2796, thus creating a new low.

Fundamental Outlook

An important event can strongly influence the Pound today: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today at 9:00 am GMT before the Treasury Select Committee. The main topic will be the Bank of England Financial Stability Report and erratic movement is a distinct possibility during the testimony, so caution is advised.
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  #516  
Old 13-07-2016, 14:33
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: TIMID BULLISH RETRACEMENTS AHEAD OF KEY BOE RATE DECISION



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved above the 1.1100 barrier yesterday but the climb couldnít be sustained and price did not continue on an upward path. The economic calendar was light, contributing to the overall lack of determination.


Technical Outlook

The move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1100 did not trigger an extended climb and the pair is already showing signs of rejection. This makes us believe that if price moves back below the 50 EMA and closes a candle without long lower wicks, then it will continue until 1.1025 is reached. As an alternate scenario, if the pair remains above the 50 EMA, we expect it to head into 1.1150 and possibly 1.1186.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another slow day ahead, without any major economic releases on the calendar. Price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney mentioned during yesterdayís testimony that ďthe exchange rate move can help with that adjustment [Ö]Ē referring to the post-Brexit conditions. This gave the Pound a push and sent the pair above immediate resistance.


Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3119 resistance but overall the picture is still very bearish and the oscillators are approaching overbought. While an extended move to the upside is not impossible, the more price climbs, the probability of a drop increases and we expect the pair to start moving south again soon. The first barrier and potential turning point is represented by 1.3227 but keep in mind that Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate so itís very possible to see slow price action until then.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound is not affected today by major economic releases, thus direction will be determined by the technical side.
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  #517  
Old 14-07-2016, 12:34
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FOREX NEWS: BOE EXPECTED TO CUT RATE TO COPE WITH BREXIT AFTERMATH



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair didnít show clear direction yesterday and it seems like the majority of investors are waiting for the economic events released later in the week before choosing a side.


Technical Outlook

Price is currently trading above the 50 period Exponential moving Average and above 1.1100 but lacks a clear bias and all moves are quickly reversed. This type of behaviour will probably end with a breakout followed by an extended move in that direction but so far the market is in indecision mode and the next direction is difficult to predict. The levels to watch are 1.1025 as support and 1.1150 as resistance but keep an eye on the economic releases because those may have a strong impact.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Producer Price Index comes out and is expected to show a 0.3% change from the previous 0.4%. This indicator tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services and can have inflationary implications because a higher producer price usually leads to a higher price paid by consumers. Figures above expectations for this indicator trigger US Dollar strength but this is just the rule of thumb and the impact of each release may differ.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved sideways after an initial bullish impulse and remained above the Moving Average. However, movement was sluggish and a big part in this was played by the fact that market participants are waiting for BOEís rate decision and are afraid to choose a direction.


Technical Outlook

Price moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the level at 1.3227 but it seems like the bullish move is close to being exhausted so we expect a drop below the mentioned technical levels. Considering todayís huge announcement, the technical aspect is secondary, volatility may increase and price may move erratically. Extreme caution is advised!

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to cut rates from 0.50% to 0.25%. If this comes true, the Pound is likely to drop further but of course, this is not a certainty and the pair may react differently than expected, depending on how market participants will interpret BOEís decision. The event is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT and is accompanied by a breakdown of the membersí votes as well as a Monetary Policy Summary, which will contain details of the reasons that determined the rate decision.
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  #518  
Old 15-07-2016, 15:23
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: BOE MAINTAINS RATE UNCHANGED, POUND CLIMBS SIGNIFICANTLY



EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday ahead of the U.S. Producer Price Index but the better than expected value of the indicator brought back some of the US Dollarís strength and most of the gains were erased.


Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.1150 was breached yesterday but price soon bounced lower, so this level is still valid. If early in todayís session the pair descends below 1.1100 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect more bears to step in and take price close to 1.1025 support. On the other hand, a clear break of 1.1150 will open the door for a move into 1.1240.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a busy day for the US Dollar that starts with the CORE version of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the price that consumers pay for the products they purchase and this version excludes food and energy from calculation. The expected change is 0.2%, same as last month, and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback.

At the same time (12:30 pm GMT) the US Retail Sales are released, expected to show a 0.1% change from the previous 0.5%. Since sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the entire consumer spending, higher numbers also strengthen the US Dollar.

The last event of the day is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 93.7, almost the same as the previous 93.5. Consumer sentiment is indicative of future consumer spending, thus higher numbers show optimism and strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to maintain the rate at 0.50% and this strengthened the Pound during yesterdayís trading session, making it reach resistance.


Technical Outlook

The key levels for short term price action are 1.3119 (1.3120) as support and 1.3483 as resistance; a break of either one may trigger an extended move in that direction. BOEís decision to maintain rates unchanged will probably extend its effects during todayís trading session so we expect price to climb above resistance but keep in mind that the US Dollar will also be affected by a lot of indicators today.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England governor Mark Carney will speak today in Toronto about the financial climate and this appearance may trigger increased volatility on Pound pairs, especially if he will drop hints about the next rate change. The event is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and caution is advised.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
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  #519  
Old 18-07-2016, 12:46
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AS BEARS RE-ENTER THE MARKET



EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Retail Sales released Friday showed a positive change of 0.6% while the forecast was just 0.1% and this brought strength to the greenback, taking the pair into support.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced once more at 1.1150 resistance and is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; also the oscillators are headed downwards but not oversold and all these signs point towards a break of 1.1025 support zone. If this happens today, we expect the pair to move into 1.0960 zone and as an alternate scenario, a bounce higher will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a lacklustre fundamental environment today as no major announcements are scheduled. Price action might be slow and ranging as a result.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears managed to take price below support, mostly on the back of better than expected U.S. data. This erased all the gains made by the Pound Thursday when the BOE decided to keep the rate at 0.50%.


Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.3227 but has bounced at 1.3119 support. Today we expect a re-test of this support and the way price behaves there will probably decide the direction for the day: a break will probably take price into the zone around 1.3050, while a bounce and a move above the 50 EMA will open the door for another re-test of 1.3483 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound is not affected today by any major economic releases, thus price direction will be likely determined by the technical aspect.
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  #520  
Old 19-07-2016, 13:14
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN ZEW, BRITISH INFLATION DATA TO TRIGGER LARGER SWINGS



EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterdayís price action was incredibly slow and mostly sideways. This was mostly due to the lack of major economic releases.


Technical Outlook

The movement seen yesterday doesnít reveal a lot of clues about future direction but the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this tilts the balance slightly towards the short side. A break of 1.1025 will likely trigger a move into 1.0960, while a move above the 50 EMA and above 1.1100 resistance will probably take the pair into 1.1150 again.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a busier day than yesterday, starting with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey of about 275 German professional analysts and investors that tries to gauge their assessment of a 6-month economic outlook. The expected figure is 8.2 (previous 19.2) and higher numbers suggest optimism, usually strengthening the Euro.

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits are released, and expected to show a figure of 1.15M (previous 1.14M). These are annualized numbers and better values can strengthen the US Dollar because the construction sector is an important part of the U.S. economy.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a slow day, without major new developments and the pair lingered close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the most part of the day.


Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading closely above the 50 period EMA but movement is slow and without a clear bias. The latest strong impulse is bearish and we expect it to continue until 1.3119 is tested again but this will depend a lot on todayís economic indicators. If the Pound strengthens, we donít expect the resistance at 1.3483 to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data is released today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A small increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.3% is expected and because inflation is currently considered too low, higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound. As always, the U.S. indicators will have a direct impact on the pair as well.
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