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  #161  
Old 15-05-2014, 08:09
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Market News

Key option levels (May 15)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3675/80 (large), $1.3700/10 (large), $1.3720 (large), $1.3750 (large large), $1.3775, $1.3800 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6680/85 (large), $1.6750 (large), $1.6775, $1.6800;

USD/JPY: 101.15/20 (large), 101.50 (large), 101.60 (large), 101.80 (large), 102.00 (large), 102.35 (large), 102.50/55 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9355 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0825 (large), 1.0845/50 (large), 1.0875 (large), 1.1000 (large).



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  #162  
Old 15-05-2014, 08:39
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Market News
15 May 2014

Germany grows, France stagnates


Today’s data showed the divergence between French and German economies keeps on growing. German economic growth accelerated more than forecasted in the first quarter, helping the euro zone’s economy to offset the unexpected stagnation in France.

German GDP rose by 0.8% in Q1 vs. 0.4% growth in Q4 2013, statistics shows, while the economists expected a 0.7% growth. Earlier data showed France, the euro zone’s second largest economy, showed a zero GDP growth in Q1 after growing by 0.2% in Q4.

“The outlook for the German economy remains good,” UniCredit economists say. “There is a lot of pent-up demand in investment and with low inflation and growing wages we have the perfect environment for strong private demand.”

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FX BAZOOKA - Germany grows, France stagnates
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  #163  
Old 16-05-2014, 22:49
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Market News

May 16: Asian session


Asian stock markets declined on Friday, following the yesterday’s US and European markets losses. Stocks closed weak overnight amid some disappointing earnings and economic reports. Ukraine woes and weaker commodity prices add to the decline.

Currency markets were slow in the Asian session. USD/JPY dipped to 101.30 yesterday, but, as expected, found support there and recovered another 20 pips. AUD/USD dipped to $0.9330 yesterday, but recovered into the $0.9355 area today, while NZD/USD consolidates in the positive zone around $0.8660.

EUR/USD consolidates slightly above the $1.3700 mark after having dipped to $1.3650 yesterday. GBP/USD hovers slightly below the $1.6800 mark . Yesterday the cable’s selloff found support at $1.6730.

Friday’s economic calendar is light. The volatility may increase later in the day - US will release building permits, housing starts and consumer sentiment data later in the day.



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  #164  
Old 16-05-2014, 23:10
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Market News
16 May 2014

China banks: bad loans rise


Chinese banks had the biggest quarterly increase in bad loans since 2005 as defaults rise because of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

According to data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission yesterday, the nonperforming loans rose by 54 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) in the 3 months to 646.1 billion yuan, the highest level since September 2008. Bad loans accounted for 1.04% of total lending, up from 1% in the previous quarter.

“Asset quality is now the biggest overhang on the banking sector,” analysts at Masterlink Securities Corp. say. “The government’s reluctance to use stimulus and ease monetary policy has made it difficult for many borrowers to repay debt.”

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  #165  
Old 16-05-2014, 23:55
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Market News

Key option levels (May 16)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3725 (large), $1.3745/55 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6680 (large);

USD/JPY: 101.35/45 (large), 102.20 (large), 102.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9300 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0800 (large), 1.0850 (large), 1.0890/0900 (large), 1.0925/35 (large).



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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (May 16)
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  #166  
Old 17-05-2014, 00:32
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Market News

May 19-23: upcoming events




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  #167  
Old 17-05-2014, 00:46
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Market News

May 16: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst[/COLOR]



Dollar slightly reacted to mixed U.S. data. So, after the appearance of a fairly strong statistics on the number of building permits issued (1.08 million vs. 1.01 million), the index of American suddenly began to fall. A little later, index of consumer sentiment of Michigan University was published (only 81.8, vs. 84.5). It has a little strengthened U.S. dollar unexpectedly, which is trading slightly above the figure of 80.00, but still in the red zone, losing about 0.03%. Stock markets also show uncertain opening. DJIA has gone into the red, losing 0.01% and the S&P is at zero mark, but with a tendency to strengthen.

Most currency pairs today is consolidating in narrow ranges. The EUR/USD pair is currently fixed on the figure of 1.3700 after testing 1.3690 support area. Currency pair USD/CHF holds above 0.8900 support. GBP/USD pair has recovered to the level of 1.6840, and then adjusted at 1.6820 mark. The pair USD/JPY holds above 101.40.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 16: American Session
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  #168  
Old 19-05-2014, 23:24
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Market News

May 19: Asian session


Asian stock markets were down on Monday, as concerns about slower growth in China pressure the risk appetite. MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan lost 0.3% in the session.

Currency market started the week in a quiet mode with the major currency pairs trading range bound on the Friday’s US session levels. USD/JPY edged down a bit to 101.40, while the Nikkei 225 index remains almost flat. Core machinery orders in Japan came surprisingly strong, confirming the economic recovery is on the way.

AUD/USD weakened from the daily high of $0.9375 into the $0.0350 area. The next event to watch in Australia will be the RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday – there shouldn’t be much surprises, though. NZD/USD hovers in the middle of the $0.8655/25 sideways range.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3700 area, while GBP/USD edged up to $1.6830.



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FX BAZOOKA - May 19: Asian session
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  #169  
Old 20-05-2014, 00:29
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Market News
19 May 2014

CFTC: USD positions turned long


Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 16 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on May 13.

According to the report, large speculators turned bullish on the US dollar, with net longs climbing to the highest in more than two months. The value of the dollar's net long position was $4.51 billion, up from short contracts totalling $2.03 billion the previous week. This week's long position came after 4 straight weeks of shorts. It's also important to note that speculators turned net short the euro.





EUR/USD


GBP/USD


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FX BAZOOKA - CFTC: USD positions turned long
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  #170  
Old 20-05-2014, 01:01
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Forex Analytics

Trade signals for May 19


Provided by Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Short at 1.3712 with a target of 1.3552 and a stop at 1.3777

USD/JPY: Short at 101.90 with a target of 100.76 and a stop at 102.45

GBP/USD: Short at 1.6830 with a target of 1.6657 and a stop at 1.6910

USD/CHF: Long at 0.8925 with a target of 0.9038 and a stop at 0.8875

AUD/USD: Long at 0.9322 with a target of 0.9461 and a stop at 0.9322

USD/CAD: Buy at 1.0858 with a target of 1.0961 and a stop at 1.0808



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FX BAZOOKA - Trade signals for May 19
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  #171  
Old 20-05-2014, 01:13
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Market News

May 19th: American session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina , an analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar looks weaker against most world currencies. Today the dollar index loses about 0.21 %, falling to 79.95. The main factor of reduction was the uncertainty of market participants about the strength of the Chinese economy recovery. Major U.S. stock markets opened with some decrease , but at the moment the S & P500 is in the green zone, +0.10, and the DJIA pulled down to zero.


The currency pair EUR/USD tries to recover after the morning consolidation, punching the resistance at 1.3725. USD/CHF is still kept above 0.8900 figure, but bears increase pressure. The British currency continued Friday's strengthening: GBP/USD has recovered to around 1.6845, but then went back to 1.6825 support. Major changes have occurred on the USD/JPY: the pair has broken down long-term support 101.40 and declined to 101.10.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 19th: American session
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  #172  
Old 21-05-2014, 00:14
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Market News

May 20: Asian session




Asian stocks swung between gains and losses. Nikkei 225 is up by 0.7%. USD/JPY is trading in the 101.50 area after testing 101.10 yesterday. The Bank of Japan begins a 2-day meeting today.

AUD/USD was the biggest mover of the day, extending the decline and testing the levels below the $0.9300 mark. News that S&P may downgrade the Australia's AAA credit rating was a factor weighing on the currency. RBA meeting minutes didn’t bring any surprises to the market, but the RBA’s Assistant Governor Debelle tried to pull the currency lower by saying that “lower capital inflows may result in a lower AUD”. NZD/USD dropped, but found support around $0.8610. Gold price sits unchanged at $1293.

EUR/USD keeps trading in the $1.3700 area. Yesterday the pair tested $1.3734. The ECB officials Daniele Nouy and Luis Maria Linde are scheduled to speak today at the Frankfurt Finance Summit, while Erkki Liikanen speaks in Helsinki. GBP/USD is trading just above $1.6800. Poundawaitsinflationdataat 08:30 GMT.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 20: Asian session
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  #173  
Old 21-05-2014, 00:42
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Market News

Key option levels (May 20)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3700/10 (large), $1.3725, $1.3745/55 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6900 (large);

USD/JPY: 100.60 (large) 100.75 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9330, $0.9360;

USD/CAD: $1.0825 (large), $1.0900, $1.0925 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8600;

EUR/GBP: 0.8200 (large).



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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (May 20)
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  #174  
Old 21-05-2014, 00:56
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Market News

May 20: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar has strengthened somewhat today, returning to the area above the 80th figure, but the bearish pressure is still strong. Currently, the index is adding about 0.05%. The U.S. stock markets have opened with a pretty big downfall today. Thus, DJIA has lost 0.33%, S&P500 - slightly more than 0.35%.

Strengthening of the US dollar has had an impact on the currency markets as well. Thus, the major Forex market currency pair - EUR/USD - was sliding to the 1.3675 area today. After a small correction to the 1.3700 figure, the bears keep on advancing. The USD/CHF pair has broken through the 0.8925 resistance and buyings are likely to increase. The British currency was supported by today's inflation data: the GBP/USD pair was recovering to the 1.6865 mark but is still trading in the 1.6840 area. The USD/JPY currency pair remains under pressure - it is consolidating under the recent support of 101.40.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 20: American Session
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  #175  
Old 21-05-2014, 23:41
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Market News

May 21: Asian session




Asian shares fell for a fourth day. MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%. Nikkei 225 is down by 0.2%.

USD/JPY is once again testing the 200-day MA at 101.18. Yen strengthened after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding stimulus and said it expects a moderate economic recovery to continue. In addition, US yield premium over Japan shrank before the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes.

AUD/USD dipped to $0.9220 before recovering by 18 pips. Australian dollar held its sharpest loss in 2 months after consumer confidence dropped and iron ore prices fell to the lowest since September 2012.

NZD/USD slid almost to $0.8550, the lowest this month. New Zealand’s dollar declined after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. said whole-milk powder prices declined for a seventh auction.

EUR/USD remains in the $1.3700 area. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.8635 area.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 21: Asian session
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  #176  
Old 22-05-2014, 06:31
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Market News

Key option levels (May 21)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3650 $1.3700/10 (large), $1.3800 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6775, $1.6880;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.25 (large), 101.50 (large), 101.70/75 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9200 (large), $0.9300 (large), $0.9345 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0850, 1.0895/0900 (large), 1.0920;

EUR/GBP: 0.8200/05 (large).


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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (May 21)
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  #177  
Old 22-05-2014, 06:53
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Market News

May 21: European session




GBP/USD rose to a 2-week high of $1.6920 on strong UK retail sales (+1.3% vs. forecast of +0.4%). The Bank of England’s meeting minutes showed that the MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged. EUR/GBP slid to the 0.8100 area.

EUR/USD remains glued to $1.3700 after testing $1.3723 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud) earlier today. The euro area’s current account surplus was lower than expected (18.8B vs. forecast of 24.2B). Germany has conducted a successful debt auction.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 21: European session
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  #178  
Old 22-05-2014, 08:50
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21 May 2014

Demand for gold at 4-year low


According to the World Gold Council’s latest Gold Demand Trends report, global demand for bars and coins declined by 39% to 283 tonnes in Q1 2014, the lowest level in 4 years.

China’s gold demand fell 18% in the first 3 months of the year as investors bought fewer bars and coins, offsetting record demand for jewellery. Other major purchasers such as India also recorded a drop in demand.

Lower demand from China, which surpassed India as the world’s largest gold consumer last year, was blamed on price-sensitivity as gold appreciated nearly 8% in 2014. Factors that caused a decrease in India were duty and restrictions on gold imports which was coupled with restrictions on free movement of cash and other assets.

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FX BAZOOKA - Demand for gold at 4-year low
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  #179  
Old 22-05-2014, 09:01
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Market News

May 21: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst[/COLOR]

The index of the U.S. dollar began to strengthen sharply, mainly due to the weakening of the euro. During the day, the dollar index soared to around 80.25 and now adds about 0.20% compared to the opening levels. Trading on the major U.S. stock exchanges opened with a strong growth. So, DJIA adds about 1.00%, while the S&P500 - 0.75%. Today, the market is expected to publish April FOMC protocols, as well as the performance of a number of FRS heads.

The U.S. dollar strengthened today and against most world currencies. So, EUR/USD pair tried to break up the yesterday’s range, but eventually bulls gave up and the rate fell to around 1.3650 mark, from which at the moment is adjusted upward. The pair USD/CHF has crept close to the highs of last week, recovering to around 0.8953 mark. British currency again was supported by statistical data, now - retail sales, the growth of which is observed in both monthly and in year. GBP/USD pair soared to around 1.6920 mark, but then corrected to 1.6880 area. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar this afternoon: the currency pair USD/JPY dropped to around 100.80 mark – the level of support four months ago. Testing at this level led to a sharp increase in purchases and growth of the currency pair to 101.55 area.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 21: American session
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  #180  
Old 22-05-2014, 23:34
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Market News

May 22: Asian session



Asian shares rose for the first time in 5 days after the Fed meeting minutes showed policy makers see a muted risk of inflation from continued US stimulus and a Chinese manufacturing gauge came better than expected. MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 1.2%. Nikkei 225 added more than 2%. USD/JPY rose to 101.75 after spiking down to 100.81 yesterday.

Commodity currencies are in demand on Thursday as the risk appetite increased on the upbeat Chinese manufacturing figures. HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 5-month high in May (49.7 versus expected 48.4). AUD/USD recovered from the yesterday’s low of $0.9210 to $0.9260. The pair formed a candle with a long lower shadow yesterday – the recent bearish move in the Aussie seems to be over. NZD/USD recovered into the $0.8580 area. Gold price remains flat slightly below the $1300 mark.

EUR/USD
lowered to $1.3670, but is trading above yesterday’s low at $1.3634. GBP/USD is trading just below $1.6900.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 22: Asian session
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  #181  
Old 22-05-2014, 23:45
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Market News

Key option levels (May 22)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3625, $1.3650 (large), $1.3700, $1.3715;

GBP/USD: $1.6850, $1.7000;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.25, 101.40 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9200 (large), $0.9225 (large), $0.9260;

USD/CAD: 1.0900 (large);

EUR/GBP:
0.8050, 0.8100.



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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (May 22)
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  #182  
Old 22-05-2014, 23:54
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Market News
22 May 2014

FOMC meeting minutes: takeaway


Here are the main comments of the minutes:

- There are no inflation risks from the continued stimulus to push unemployment lower.

- Most FOMC members saw inflation at 2.0% within the next few years (in March inflation was 1.1% staying below the 2% target for almost 2 years).

- Fed officials discussed several approaches to policy when they raise short-term interest rates, but decided further study was needed.

Full text of the minutes here

All in all, the minutes offer little insight into the future policy of the Fed. According to BK Asset Management, “while the central bank is and intends to end QE in 2014 they provided no additional hints on when rates will rise.”

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FX BAZOOKA - FOMC meeting minutes: takeaway
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  #183  
Old 23-05-2014, 00:34
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May 22: European session




EUR/USD continues trading below $1.3700 after the euro zone’s PMIs came mixed. While manufacturing PMIs in France, Germany and the euro area as a whole turned out to be lower than expected, services PMIs were firmer. German manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 vs. the forecast of 54, while the euro zone’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.5 vs. the forecast of 53.2.

GBP/USD fell from the daily high of $1.6917 to $1.6870 as the UK public sector net borrowing came much worse than expected (9.6B vs. 3.6B forecasted). UK GDP increased by 0.8% in Q1, up from the 0.7% rise in the previous quarter. This result is in line with market consensus. UK preliminary business investment increased by 2.7% in Q1 (forecast: 2.3%). Great Britain will release industrial order expectations later in the session.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 22: European session
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  #184  
Old 23-05-2014, 00:45
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Market News

May 22nd: American session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar strengthened once again against the major world currencies today. The main driver of growth was positive data on the Chinese economy. Currently, the dollar index (80.25) is in the green zone, adding about 0.20 %. Stock markets opened rather sluggishly. Analysts blame the relatively weak performance of the labor market and the secondary housing market. DJIA index grew by 0.10 %, while the S & P500 - 0.20% .
The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3650 support at the beginning of the session. GBP/USD falls as well, trading at which conducted a mark 1.6850 . At the same time, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, USD/JPY returns to morning highs of 102.70. There is some weakness in the pair USD/CHF, which failed to pass above resistance 0.8950

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FX BAZOOKA - May 22nd: American session
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  #185  
Old 24-05-2014, 08:28
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Market News

May 23: Asian session




Asian shares rose, with the regional benchmark heading for a 4-month high, after data showed US manufacturing expanded and as the yen held yesterday’s losses. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5% to 141.03 heading for the highest close since Jan. 1. Nikkei 225 rose by almost 1%. USD/JPY edged up to 101.85.

AUD/USD recovered into the $0.9250 area after hitting a session low of $0.9215. NZD/USD hovers in a tight $0.8555/75 range. Gold price consolidates around $1295 after having tested the levels above $1300 yesterday.

EUR/USD declined to $1.3640. Euro weakened ahead of data that may show German business cclimate index fell and amid concerns that euro-skeptic parties will gain ground in elections for the European Union Parliament. GBP/USD edged up to $1.6870.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 23: Asian session
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  #186  
Old 24-05-2014, 09:03
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Market News

May 22nd: American session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar strengthened once again against the major world currencies today. The main driver of growth was positive data on the Chinese economy. Currently, the dollar index (80.25) is in the green zone, adding about 0.20 %. Stock markets opened rather sluggishly. Analysts blame the relatively weak performance of the labor market and the secondary housing market. DJIA index grew by 0.10 %, while the S & P500 - 0.20% .
The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3650 support at the beginning of the session. GBP/USD falls as well, trading at which conducted a mark 1.6850 . At the same time, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, USD/JPY returns to morning highs of 102.70. There is some weakness in the pair USD/CHF, which failed to pass above resistance 0.8950

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FX BAZOOKA - May 22: American session
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  #187  
Old 26-05-2014, 23:38
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May 26: Asian session




Asian stocks rose for a third day, touching a 6-month high, after an increase in US home purchases boosted confidence in the world’s largest economy and billionaire Petro Poroshenko had a decisive win in Ukraine’s presidential election. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3%. USD/JPY is trading just below 102.00.

AUD/USD sits in a tight range around $0.9240 – slightly above the last week’s lows at $0.9210. NZD/USD trades under pressure at $0.8530 (minimum levels since the end of April). New Zealand April trade balance disappointed, coming below the forecast at +534M (vs. expected +634M). Gold price consolidates in the narrow $1290/94 range.

EUR/USD has come close to $1.3600 before the ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a forum in Portugal amid speculation the ECB will expand stimulus in June. Exit polls of the European Parliamentary elections indicate that although hat left-center and right-center parties will still hold a majority of seats, Euroskeptic groups who oppose the European Union are definitely gaining ground. GBP/USD edged up to $1.6845. The US and UK financial markets are closed today for public holidays.

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Old 26-05-2014, 23:58
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26 May 2014

China Premier Li hints on easing


Chinese stock markets rose on Monday amid increased monetary easing expectations. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on May 23 the government will "fine-tune" policy when needed and solve problems such as tight funds for the real economy, especially for small companies.

“Investors’ risk appetite is rising while expectations about defaults are diminishing,” analysts at Guotai Junan Securities Co., Chinese third-biggest brokerage, say. “The central bank wants to maintain an appropriately loose environment to prevent explosion of regional or systematic risks. The central bank doesn’t want to see more companies collapse, so it has to allow borrowing costs to fall."

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Old 27-05-2014, 00:27
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26 May 2014

EU: euroskeptics gained votes


Anti-European Union and far-right parties posted strong gains in elections to the European Parliament in some countries on Sunday, repots Wall Street Journal. This means that more and more Europeans are against economic austerity.

The early results show that the euroskeptic parties won the biggest share of the vote in France (25%), the UK, Greece and Denmark. Centrist, pro-European parties are still expected to hold a broad majority of the 751 seats in the new Parliament, which decides on EU laws together with national governments. However, anti-EU lawmakers could complicate passing measures on which mainstream parties are divided, including a planned free-trade deal with the US.

ANZ Bank New Zealand: “These results represent a shot across the bows of governments across Europe, who will be forced to take note and appease dissatisfied voters if they want to stand a chance of re-election down the track. Our view is that Europe’s debt and structural problems have been papered over, not resolved, and that a further bout of financial volatility is probably just a question of when.”

Danske Bank: “While there might be some short-term ‘noise’ from the outcome of the EU-election, the impact on the markets is likely to be limited as attention turns to the upcoming ECB meeting. The market reaction so far this morning has also been very limited with EUR/USD only moving marginally lower”.

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Old 27-05-2014, 00:49
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26 May 2014

CFTC: USD net longs up


Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 23 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on May 20.

According to the report, the value of the USD net long position increased a little from $4.51 billion on the previous week to $4.67 billion this week. The US dollar positions stay on the net bullish side for a second week in a row after spending four weeks in bearish zone. The net USD positions are now at their highest level since March 11.



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Old 27-05-2014, 01:06
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26 May 2014

BoE Bean expects a 3% rate in 5 years


Charlie Bean, the departing BoE's deputy governor, expects the UK’s main interest rate to reach 3% within 3 to 5 years. He also pointed to the risks of increasing rates too early, saying policy makers had to be careful not to damage the recovery. In his view, there is no immediate need for a rate rise because there is still slack in the economy to guard against any inflation build-up

Last week, minutes published by the Monetary Policy Committee showed it moving closer to a rate rise as some members indicated they were ready to vote for an earlier-than-expected increase.

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Old 27-05-2014, 01:22
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May 26: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar is showing signs of weakness due to the absence of major market participants from the U.S. and the UK who are celebrating national holidays. The dollar index has fallen by 0.15%, while stock indexes are showing a positive trend, adding about 0.38%.

Against this background, the EUR/USD pair has compensated for its Friday's fall, returning to the 1.3650 level. The GBP/USD currency pair keeps trading below the 1.6850 resistance. The dollar is weakening against the franc as well: USD/CHF has decresed to the 0.8940 area, correcting after a three-weeks growth. The rate of USD/JPY has also tumbled, to the 101.80 support area. However, the short-term trend gives hope for further growth.

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Old 28-05-2014, 05:38
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May 27: Asian session




Asian stocks climbed for a fourth day. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2%. Nikkei 225 is up by 0.65%. USD/JPY stays just below 102.00. Japan’s currency dropped as demand for haven assets declined on speculation that policy makers globally will add to measures supporting growth and before Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a conference tomorrow.

Commodity currencies are in demand on Tuesday. AUD/USD strengthened after four days of a sideways trade, hitting a session high of $0.9275. However, the selling pressure remains pretty high above $0.9260. NZD/USD moved up by around 35 pips to $0.8580, but gave some gains back. Gold loses ground, weakening below $1,288.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3668. US dollar is rather weak before data today forecast to show durable goods orders fell. All in all, euro was set for its biggest monthly drop since January after ECB President Mario Draghi signaled yesterday policy makers are ready to expand stimulus should inflation slow. GBP/USD edged up to $1.6869.

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Old 28-05-2014, 05:49
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Key option levels (May 27)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3620 (large), $1.3625, $1.3650, $1.3700/05 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6900;

USD/JPY: 101.00, 102.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9175, $0.9200, $0.9240 (large), $0.9250/55 (large), 0.9265 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0905/20 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.8050, 0.8100 (large).

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Old 28-05-2014, 06:00
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27 May 2014

BoJ pushes Abe to further reforms


Japan risks low economic growth even as policy easing spurs inflation, the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata said in a speech yesterday. He underlines that the GDP growth can't be achieved only through the monetary policy, it is also a task of the government.

“The BOJ is stepping up its rhetoric to push the government to raise Japan’s potential,” RBS economists say. “Iwata is basically saying that the BOJ is achieving results, so now it is time for the government to show its commitment to ending deflation.”

Japanese economic growth hit a 2-year high of 5.9% y/y in Q1. First-quarter growth was mainly driven by spending increase before the April 1 sales-tax hike. However, GDP is forecasted to contract by 3.4% y/y in Q2 as consumers cut back the purchasing.

The BOJ’s stimulus helped lift core inflation to +1.3% in March 2014 from -0.4% in April 2013 when the central bank started easing a campaign of policy easing. However, it’s not all so simple. “The BOJ is aware that if the government doesn’t make efforts on this, the public may start to complain about the inflation policy,” analysts at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo explain.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is currently preparing for the next phase of Abenomics. Many market participants fear that the so called Third Arrow of the government’s growth strategy has got “lost in flight”. Investors would like the planned economic restructuring to result in higher wages growth, helping the consumers to withstand the rising prices. The core question these days is whether the Abe's strategy will be really effective.

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Old 28-05-2014, 06:18
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May 27: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst[/COLOR]

Strong growth of index "CB Consumer Trust" strengthened market sentiments and contributed to a very positive image of the major U.S. stock exchanges. Thus, DJIA added immediately about 0.50%, while the S&P500 - 0.60%. Also the dollar index increases - more than 0.20% - exceeding the 80.50 mark.

In currency markets, there is also strengthening of American against major world currencies. Thus, EUR/USD pair dropped to minimums of the last two days - 1.3615; currency pair GBP/USD had fallen to the strong support of 1.6800, after a day of testing the level of 1.6880. At the same time, the dollar strengthened against the franc, the pair USD/CHF has established a new maximum for the last two weeks, recovering to 0.8975 area. The currency pair USD/JPY finally broke the resistance figures 102.00 - trades are now held in the area of 102.10.

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Old 28-05-2014, 06:32
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May 28: Asian session




Asian shares rose as US data added to evidence a recovery in the world’s largest economy is intact. The orders for US durable goods unexpectedly increased in April and consumer confidence perked up in May. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%. Japanese Nikkei 225 rose by 0.5%.

USD/JPY keeps trading just below 102.00 after testing 102.14 yesterday. AUD/USD remains in a tight $0.9250/70 range, slightly below the yesterday’s $0.9280 peak. NZD/USD was a big mover, falling from $0.8570 to $0.8540. Kiwi was pressured by the big decline in business confidence (53.5 in May vs. 64.8 in April). Gold price plummeted by more than 300 pips yesterday, falling to the lowest level since early February. Rise in the US equities curbed demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Today XAU/USD opened with a bearish gap and consolidates around $1264.

EUR/USD edged down to $1.3630. GBP/USD is at $1.6800 after declining yesterday.

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Old 28-05-2014, 23:07
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May 28: European session




EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3620. Data released in the euro area today was mostly disappointing. The number of unemployed people in Germany rose, French consumer spending declined. German import prices also fell, while the increase in the euro zone’s Money supply was lower than expected. GBP/USD fell to $1.6745. UK released lower CBI realized sale.

There is little on the data calendar for the rest of the day. Tomorrow the US will release its second estimate of Q1 GDP, widely expected to be revised lower from the initial 0.1% rise.

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Old 29-05-2014, 00:21
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Market News

May 28: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The dollar continues strengthening its position due to the pressure on the euro. In the absence of news factors from the U.S., the index has grown to the 80.60 level, adding about 0.20% at the moment. Stock indexes, however, are showing a decline: DJIA - -0.25%, S&P500 - -0.16%.

The EUR/USD currency pair has updated its yesterday's lows, falling to the 1.3595 support, and GBP/USD has collapsed significantly to yet another figure of 1.6700 again. At the same time, the USD/CHF pair has updated its highs again, recovering to the 0.8990 mark. USD/JPY has corrected to the 101.70 support after failing to consolidate above the 102.00 figure.

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Old 29-05-2014, 10:01
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May 29: Asian session



USD/JPY declined to 101.64. Yen strengthened as the greenback’s appeal diminished after Treasury 10-year yields fell to a 9-month low relative to similar-maturity Japanese government debt.

AUD/USD strengthened by almost 70 pips to $0.9290. The pair initially dipped on the release of worse-than-expected Australia private capital expenditure report (-4.2% q/q vs. expected -1.6%). However, the Aussie found support at $0.9210 and pushed higher as the estimates for spending in 2014/15 all came above expectations, supporting the view that RBA will keep rates on hold in the nearest future.

NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8485 following the yesterday’s 100-pips drop to $0.8470. Kiwi fell to the lowest level in more than two months as market sentiment worsened following a drop in business confidence and a weaker forecast payout to dairy farmers from Fonterra Cooperative Group.

Gold consolidates around the yesterday’s low of $1256 – this was the lowest level since early February.

EUR/USD is trading just above $1.3600 after dipping to $1.3590. Euro was set for its biggest monthly drop since February 2013 before data tomorrow on German retail sales and Spanish inflation that may back the case for additional stimulus from the ECB. There are bank holidays in Germany, France and Switzerland today. GBP/USD rose by 20 pips from support at $1.6708.

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