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  #121  
Old 26-04-2014, 03:28
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Market News

Key option levels (Apr. 25)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3775, $1.3800;

GBP/USD: $1.6600;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.50 (large), 102.00 (large), 102.15 (large), 102.55-65 (large), 102.70 (large), 103.00 (large), 103.10 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9280, $0.9300, $0.9335 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0900, 1.0915, 1.0930, 1.0940, 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1095, 1.1100 (large);

AUD/JPY: 95.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.8300.

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  #122  
Old 26-04-2014, 03:44
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Market News

Apr. 25: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst



U.S. dollar today looked weaker against most world currencies before the publication of the index of consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan. However, the data were better than expected - 84.1 vs. expected 83.00 . This allowed a little strengthen the dollar index, but it is still in the red zone, losing about 0.08 %. Stock trading opened in a very serious disadvantage: S&P500 losing about 0.52%, and the DJIA - 0.60%.

EUR/USD pair reached up to around 1.3850 mark, but with the arrival on the market of U.S. players it reduced in the area of 1.3830. Currency pair GBP/USD is consolidating just above the 1.6800 figure after testing important level of 1.6825.

USD/CHF pair shows weakness the third day, falling today to 0.8800 figure. But USD JPY dropped below 102.00 figure.
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  #123  
Old 28-04-2014, 16:01
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April 28: Asian session

Japanese and Chinese stocks fell on Monday amid increasing tension in Ukraine, which pressure the risk appetite and support the safe-haven assets. China President Xi Jinping disappointed the markets, saying economy doesn’t need additional monetary stimulus.

USD/JPY has recovered a little, strengthening to 102.25. Nikkei 225 lost almost 1% in the session despite the upbeat Japan retail sales data. AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9305, facing resistance there. NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8575. Gold met sellers at $1306.4. EUR/USD dipped to $1.3815 before recovering to $1.3835. GBP/USD is testing the Friday highs around $1.6830.
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  #124  
Old 28-04-2014, 16:27
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EUR/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)


Authored by Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The pair is now forming a horizontal triangle. The question is where the bullish corrective wave [D] ends.


Daily. Wave[D] is a complex corrective wave with (y) of [D] being a double zigzag. The second zigzag is now coming to an end.



H4. We expect the wave (5) to be built in the nearest future. After that the market will reverse to the downside.



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FX BAZOOKA - EUR/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)
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  #125  
Old 28-04-2014, 16:40
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GBP/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)


Authored by Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The pair has been forming a rising impulse channel for more than a year.


Daily. The market is now forming a corrective wave (IV).


H4. Corrective wave В seems to be complete. This week we expect a bearish move to begin.


More:
http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/fil...28/gbpusd3.jpg
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  #126  
Old 28-04-2014, 16:56
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USD/JPY: wave analysis (Apr. 28)


Daily. Final bullish impulse of (V) is now being formed.


H12. Corrective wave IV was a complex one. In our view, rising impulse V has already begun.


H4. We expect to see a new bullish trend after the corrective wave [2] will be over. However, this pair is not so evident these days. We'd better avoid trading on USD/JPY in the near term.


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FX BAZOOKA - USD/JPY: wave analysis (Apr. 28)
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  #127  
Old 28-04-2014, 17:25
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AUD/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)


Weekly. Rising impulse [c] is about to begin.


Daily. Market is correcting to the downside in the wave (2).


H4. This week the pair will form a corrective bearish channel.


more:
FX BAZOOKA - AUD/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)
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  #128  
Old 29-04-2014, 14:09
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Market News

April 29: Asian session



Asian markets were mixed with investors trading cautiously. Concerns about Ukraine persist: US, EU, Canada and Japan announced fresh sanctions on Russian officials. US Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

USD/JPY is trading in a tight 10-pips range around 102.50. Liquidity is thin on Tuesday as the Japanese market is closed due to public holidays. Bank of Japan will announce its policy decision on Wednesday.

Demand for commodity currencies is subdued. AUD/USD extended the decline, testing $0.9220 in early Asia. Falling iron ore prices keep on pressuring the Aussie. NZD/USD followed the AUD, weakening to $0.8520. New Zealand March trade balance came in line with expectations (920M), while the February reading was revised down to 793M.

EUR/USD strengthened to $1.3865, but remains below the yesterday’s $1.3880 peak. GBP/USD consolidates around $1.6815 after hitting a 4.5-year high yesterday. Markets are looking forward to the German CPI and the UK Q1 GDP in the European session.

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FX BAZOOKA - April 29: Asian session
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  #129  
Old 29-04-2014, 14:21
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Forex Analytics

T. Norkina: trade signals (Apr. 29)


[COLOR="Green"]Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst[/COLOR]

GBP/USD: buy – 1.6820; stop – 1.6800; target1 – 1.6860; target2 – 1.6890.

USD/CHF: sell – 0.8790; stop – 0.8810; target1 – 0.8760; target2 – 0.8730.



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FX BAZOOKA - T. Norkina: trade signals (Apr. 29)
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  #130  
Old 29-04-2014, 14:37
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Trade signals from Danske Bank (Apr. 29)

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)


EUR/USD: Long at 1.3820 with a target of 1.3967 and a stop at 1.3809

USD/JPY: Buy at 102.32 with a target of 103.43 and a stop at 101.79

GBP/USD: Long at 1.6700 with a target of 1.6917 and a stop at 1.6740

USD/CHF: Short at 0.8835 with a target of 0.8715 and a stop at 0.8835

AUD/USD: Short at 0.9275 with a target of 0.9136 and a stop at 0.9325

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0970 with a target of 1.1078 and a stop at 1.0980

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  #131  
Old 30-04-2014, 22:49
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Market News

April 30: Asian session




Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday with the MSCI Asia Pacific index staying almost unchanged. Investors remain cautious before the FOMC monetary policy decision announcement in the US session and the US jobs data on Friday. Continuing tension in Ukraine continues weighting on the risk appetite.

USD/JPY slipped to 102.30. Yen strengthened as the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged in line with the expectations. Bank’s CPI target remains on track, while the 2014 GDP forecast was downgraded from +1.4% to 1.1%. Japan industrial production came below the expectations. Nikkei 225 index added 0.11%.

Commodity currencies found buyers in the Asian session. AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9290, but still trades in the descending channel. NZD/USD touched $0.8875 earlier in the session and is now consolidating a little lower. Gold trades under pressure around $1292.5.

EUR/USD extends the yesterday’s drop, testing the $1.3800 support to the downside. GBP/USD is trading in the red, but holds slightly above the $1.6800 mark. Monday peak of $1.6855 remains unbeaten.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - April 30: Asian session
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  #132  
Old 30-04-2014, 23:07
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Trade signals from Danske Bank (Apr. 30)

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

EUR/USD: Sell at 1.3825 with a target of 1.3762 and a stop at 1.3882

USD/JPY: Long at 102.60 with a target of 103.43 and a stop at 102.19

GBP/USD: Long at 1.6700 with a target of 1.6917 and a stop at 1.6740

USD/CHF: Buy at 0.8825 with a target of 0.8905 and a stop at 0.8770

AUD/USD: Short at 0.9275 with a target of 0.9136 and a stop at 0.9325

USD/CAD: Sell at 1.0986 with a target of 1.0858 and a stop at 1.1036



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FX BAZOOKA - Trade signals from Danske Bank (Apr. 30)
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  #133  
Old 01-05-2014, 00:10
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Market News

US GDP and the Fed in focus

[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Mark Jensen, FBS[/COLOR]


Market volatility was pretty low at the beginning of the trading week: investors stayed cautious ahead of the news scheduled for the end of the week.

The US intrigue will be partially disclosed on Wednesday. Pay special attention to the nonfarm payrolls by ADP at 12:15 GMT. The April report is expected to show a solid 215K increase in private payrolls.

US will release its advance Q1 GDP (forecast: + 1.2%; Q4: revised down to 2.6%) at 12:30 GMT. The U.S. economy probably grew at the slowest pace in a year as the untypically cold winter weather lowered consumer and business confidence.

Later in the day FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision (18:00 GMT). The April meeting should provide few surprises: the QE taper is expected to continue at a pace of $10 billion. There will be no press conference or new projections in April. The market will likely focus on when interest rates might begin to rise and at what pace.



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FX BAZOOKA - US GDP and the Fed in focus
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  #134  
Old 01-05-2014, 00:47
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Market News

Terrible US GDP


US published mixed statistics on Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls by ADP came much better than expected: 220K versus forecasted 203K, March reading revised up to 209K.

However, the main event of the day was the US Q1 GDP. Data came out MUCH worse than expected: economy added only 0.1% vs. forecast 1.2% and 2.6% in Q4. EUR/USD jumped to $1.3870 on the news.

Waiting for the Fed monetary policy announcement at 18 GMT.



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FX BAZOOKA - Terrible US GDP
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  #135  
Old 01-05-2014, 01:08
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Market News

Apr. 30: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst[/COLOR]

U.S. dollar today began to weaken against many world currencies before the publication of the report on inflation in the Euro zone. According to statistical data for the last month inflation was only 0.7% , instead of the expected 0.8%. In the focus of attention of investors today was also the statistics from the U.S. Thus, according to ADP data, change in the number of working places in the non-agricultural sector was 220 thousand, against expectations of 210 thousand, however quarterly U.S. GDP growth showed only 0.1% instead of the projected 1.2%. A little later, Fed 's statement on interest rates is expected . Rates are expected to remain at the same levels of 0.25%.

U.S. dollar index is currently losing 0.30%. Stock markets - about zero.

In currency markets, there is a revival. The pair EUR/USD rebounded to around 1.3870 mark after testing 1.3790 support. And GBP/USD pair finally resumed growth and has established a new maximum in the area of 1.6870 today. Bulls continue to tread.

Currency pair USD/CHF plummeted to around 0.8790 mark. The dollar weakened and against the yen: USD/JPY fell to a level of 102.20.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - Apr. 30: American Session
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  #136  
Old 01-05-2014, 19:45
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Market News

May 1st: American session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS[/COLOR]


Statistical data on the U.S. economy was mixed today. So, weekly statistics on applications for unemployment benefits were much worse than expected: 344 thousand vs. 319 thousand. In the same time, personal expenses of Americans increased by 0.9 % instead of the expected growth of 0.6 %. This indicates a positive trend in the U.S. economy, which allowed to strengthen the dollar index. However, the main intrigue of the markets will persist until tomorrow, when it will be published non-farm payrolls for April. Very positive data is expected. Today, the percentage change of the dollar index is near zero. The stock market is also at zero level.

Currency pairs are waiting. Thus, the pair EUR/USD is consolidating in 1.3870, GBP/USD is again restored to the figure of 1.6900.


Currency para USD/CHF stopped at 0.8790 and USD/JPY slowly grew to 102.35 resistance.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 1st: American session
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  #137  
Old 05-05-2014, 14:44
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Market News

May 5: Asian session



Asian markets took a turn lower on Monday as the HSBC survey showed China manufacturing fell for a 4th month in a row. The final reading for the HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in April vs. expected 48.4 (reading below 50 indicates contraction). Markets are now concerned that the second largest world economy is losing momentum. The risk sentiment was generally positive before the China figure came out: investors were inspired by the Friday’s US labor report (+288K vs. 216K expected). The increased tensions in Ukraine keep gold and bonds well bid. Japan, South Korea and Thailand markets are closed for a holiday today.

USD/JPY hit a two-week low of 101.85 as demand for the safe currencies increased. The pair lost more than 100 pips from the Friday’s peak of 103.02 hit on the strong US labor report.

Demand for the commodity currencies is subdued. AUD/USD opened the week with a bullish gap at $0.9285, dipped to $0.9250 later in the session and now recovered to $0.9275. Australia building approvals fell by 3.5% in March. Reserve Bank of Australia holds a policy meeting tomorrow. NZD/USD is trading under pressure around $0.8250. Gold opened with a gap up and hit to $1309.4 in Asia (highest since April 15).

EUR/USD consolidates in the $1.3885/65 range after a volatile Friday, while GBP/USD hovers in the $1.6885/68 band. UK markets are also closed.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 5: Asian session
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  #138  
Old 05-05-2014, 15:05
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Market News

CFTC: USD shorts declined


Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 2 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on April 29. According to the report, large traders and speculators decreased their overall bearish bets of the US dollar from $1.6 billion on April 22 to $0.7 billion on April 29. The USD position has been on the bearish side for the past three weeks.





FX BAZOOKA - CFTC: USD shorts declined
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  #139  
Old 05-05-2014, 15:25
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Opinion: US labor data not so good

5 May 2014

According to UBS, even though the US employment figures were much better than expected, the drop in unemployment rate was mainly due to falling participation, showing the continued slack in the US labor market. Economists don't think the figures will have a long-playing positive effect for the market.

“The US labor market report showed on Friday, that hiring in the US has been much stronger in April than markets had expected. 288K jobs had been created in April, compared to a 210K expected", analysts remind. "Also the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% in March to 6.3% in April. However, a lot of this drop came on the back of a falling participation. Also wage growth has been flat, showing the continued slack in the US labor market”.



FX BAZOOKA - Opinion: US labor data not so good
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  #140  
Old 06-05-2014, 02:54
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Market News

May 5: American Session



[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

Optimistic data on business activity in the U.S. over the past month has supported the U.S. dollar index today, which has managed to keep over the 79.50 support. Stock markets, on the contrary, have started the week with a significant gapdown but are trying to make up the losses at the moment. Thus, DJIA is losing slightly less than in the morning - around 0.32%, S&P500 - 0.12%.

Currency markets are consolidating after the Friday's rally. The EUR/USD pair has beed trading under 1.3880 all day long, while GBP/USD - in the 1.6860 area.

The range of trading for the USD/CHF pair has reached only 10 pips today: 0.8765-0.8775. At the moment, the bulls are trying to break forward. The USD/JPY pair has set a new low for the past two weeks, dropping to the 101.85 mark, but oversaleness are preventing the bears from winning total control over the market.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 5: American Session
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  #141  
Old 06-05-2014, 14:54
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Market News

May 6: Asian session




Asian stock markets were mixed on Tuesday with MSCI Asia Pacific index adding 0.1%. Trading volumes remain low as markets in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for holidays. Yesterday the markets were cheered up by the strong US ISM manufacturing PMI. USD/JPY weakened from the session high of 102.20 to 102.00.

AUDUSD jumped up from $0.9283 to $0.9316, but failed to fix at these highs. The Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged and came with a neutral statement. The bank, however, has once again referred to the overvalued currency. Australia trade surplus came below the forecast. NZD/USD touched $0.8715. Gold consolidates around $1309 – slightly below the yesterday’s 3-week high of $1315.

EUR/USD consolidates below the yesterday’s high of $1.3885, while GBP/USD touched $1.6895. Euro zone and Great Britain will release service PMIs later in the session.

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Company news - Page 144
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  #142  
Old 07-05-2014, 01:26
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Market News

May 6th: American session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

Last month retail sales increase to 0.3% in Europe ( forecast : -0.2 %) contributed to today strengthen of EUR, while weakening of the U.S. dollar index at the same time, which is currently losing about 0.50 %, falling to around 79.10. Trading has been negatively opened on major U.S. stock exchanges. S & P500 is losing about 0.30% and the DJIA - 0.55%. The negative data on the U.S. trade balance was the main driver of decline. According to the report, the deficit rose to 40.38 billion dollars, against expectations of $ 40.30 billion.

Consolidation was completed on the currency markets. The EUR/USD soared to around 1.3950 today, but corrected to 1.3930 in early U.S. session. British currency was supported by the positive statistics: business activity in the services sector in the UK rose unexpectedly - the index was 58.7, against expectations of 57.6. GBP/USD pair reached a high of 1.7000 figure, but now corrected at 1.6980.

Currency pair USD/CHF has issued a low in the area of ​​0.8720 - it's almost March lows. USD/JPY dropped pretty much as well, today its rate fell to around 101.50 .

More:
FX BAZOOKA - May 6th: American session
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  #143  
Old 07-05-2014, 22:26
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T. Norkina: trade signals (May 7)


T.Norkina, FBS analyst

EUR/USD: buy – 1.3910; stop – 1.3890; target1 – 1.3950; target2 - 1.3975.

USD/JPY: buy – 101.40; stop – 101.20; target1 – 101.80; target2 – 102.00.



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FX BAZOOKA - T. Norkina: trade signals (May 7)
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  #144  
Old 07-05-2014, 22:39
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Market News

May 7: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar weakened somewhat during today's speech of the head of U.S. Federal Reserve Dzh.Yellen. The correction stopped, and the index fell to the morning values in the area of 79.15, but the positive trend continues. Major U.S. stock markets opened in different directions. So, DJIA - in positive area, about 0.12%, while the S&P500 - in the red zone, a little more than 0.15%.

Currency pairs again in the outset today. EUR/USD pair is trading at the lower edge of today's range 1.3910-1.3930. GBP/USD moderately reduced in 1.6960 area. Not excluded a deeper correction after yesterday's growth.

The currency pair USD/CHF has adjusted to the level of 0.8760. But the pair USD/JPY, after testing the recent support of 101.40, moved up to the figure of 102.00. But the bulls are not yet able to maintain their advantage and the rate dropped to 101.65 area.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - May 7: American Session
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  #145  
Old 07-05-2014, 23:00
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BNP Paribas lowered EUR/USD forecast


Strategists at BNP Paribas have revised down their Q2 EUR/USD forecast from 1.3700 to 1.3500
.

"Consistent with our economists’ forecasts for a deposit rate cut in June and acknowledging that the ECB’s recent FX rhetoric has limited EURUSD’s near-term upside, we have revised down our Q2 forecast to 1.35 from 1.37," BNPP outlines the rationale behind this revision.

"In the absence of further ECB action, EURUSD weakness towards 1.30 is likely to materialise gradually, in line with the improvement in the US economy and the shift to a less accommodative Fed policy," BNPP argues.

"However, our base case is that the ECB delivers QE in Q3 which should bring about an acceleration in the pace of the EURUSD’s decline, pushing it below 1.30," they add.

"We continue to see EURUSD at 1.26 by year-end," BNPP forecasts.



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FX BAZOOKA - BNP Paribas lowered EUR/USD forecast
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  #146  
Old 07-05-2014, 23:17
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7 May 2014
EUR/USD: what to expect?


[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Kira Iukhtenko, FBS[/COLOR]
EUR/USD made another bullish move on Tuesday, hitting $1.3950. The greenback lost most of its shine on the back of the falling US yields. On Wednesday the market is consolidating the yesterday’s growth and waiting for the major events – Fed’s Yellen speech tonight and the ECB meeting tomorrow.

In our view, Mrs. Yellen is unlikely to influence the trade direction today. She is expected to repeat the dovish comments about the low inflation and weak labor market (supportive for EUR/USD). As for the ECB on Thursday, monetary policy will stay unchanged. A rate cut is widely expected in June, so Mr. Draghi may start preparing the investors for that. However, dovish rhetoric is not enough to impress the euro-bullish market.

What to expect from the pair in the coming days? Given the euro’s resilience – the currency simply ignores all the negative news – we see room to test $1.4000 this week. Strong resistance for the pair lies at $1.3967 (the 2014 high). Note that the market is overbought, however. There is a MACD divergence on a daily chart. We still put long-term bullish prospects of the pair on doubt. Support lies at $1.3800/3780 and $1.3660.


Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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FX BAZOOKA - EUR/USD: what to expect?
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  #147  
Old 08-05-2014, 13:00
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Market News

May 8: Asian session




Asian stock markets rose on Thursday, supported by the Fed’s Yellen dovish comments and upbeat Chinese trade data that suggest some signs of stabilization economy. China trade surplus increased from 7.7B to 18.5B in April. There are signs of tensions in Ukraine easing: Russian President Vladimir Putin called on pro-Moscow separatists to postpone a secession vote.

AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9375, supported by the upbeat Australia labor market data and a better-than-expected China trade balance. The number of people employed in Australia rose by 14.2K in April (forecast: 7.5K), while the jobless rate held unchanged at 5.8% (forecast: 5.9%). NZD/USD consolidates 30 pips above the session low of $0.8640 following the yesterday’s sharp selloff. USD/JPY faced resistance at the 102 figure and retraced to 101.70.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidate slightly below the recent highs, waiting for the ECB and BoE policy meetings.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 8: Asian session
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  #148  
Old 08-05-2014, 13:14
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Danske Bank: trade signals (May 8)


EUR/USD: Long at 1.3910 with a target of 1.4005 and a stop at 1.3863

USD/JPY: Look to sell at 102.10/15

GBP/USD: Long at 1.6700 with a target of 1.7044 and a stop at 1.6880

USD/CHF: Short at 0.8824 with a target of 0.8698 and a stop at 0.8785

AUD/USD: Long at 0.9322 with a target of 0.9461 and a stop at 0.9261

USD/CAD: Short at 1.0980 with a target of 1.0858 and a stop at 1.0940


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  #149  
Old 09-05-2014, 01:17
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Market News

May 8th: American session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

Today the ECB kept interest rates at 0.25 %. This is generally consistent with the expectations of analysts. Therefore, the currency pair EUR/USD soared to new highs in the 1.3990 area. However, the subsequent statement of M.Dragi about the possibility of summer rate cuts collapsed the market. Moreover, the head of the ECB firmly stressed the undesirability of the strong euro. U.S. dollar began to strengthen against the euro. The pair is currently trading at 1.3850. Opposite situation occurred in the pair USD/CHF, the rate of which tested new lows of 0.8700, but recovered to the 0.8800 figure for now.


U.S. stock markets opened on the positive . So , DJIA continues yesterday's recovery, going up to 0.35 % today, and the S & P500 - more than 0.40 %.

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Old 09-05-2014, 23:54
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Market News
8 May 2014

BTMU: it is still hot in Ukraine


Despite the yesterday's risk appetite improvement, the BTMU economists remark the geopolitical risks fom Ukraine as a relevant factor for global markets.

"Investors were encouraged yesterday by comments from Russian President Putin which appeared to strike a more conciliatory tone. President Putin asked “representatives of south-east regions of the Ukraine and federalisation supporters to reschedule the referendum scheduled for the 11th May”, in order to create the necessary conditions for dialogue between current Kiev authorities and representatives of south-east Ukraine."

"President Putin also backed the Ukraine’s plans to hold presidential elections on the 25th May which he described as a “step in the right direction”, but added that the Ukraine government must first hold talks with separatists in the east and suspend its military operation against pro-Russian groups. However, Nato and the Pentagon have stated that there has been no sign of a pullback in Russian troops from the Ukraine border. The Russian rouble and other local currencies strengthened in a knee-jerk manner following the comments from President Putin, with USD/RUB falling back below the 35.00-level."

What's important, the Ukrainian separatists disagreed to delay the referendum - so the topic will remain in the center of attention over the weekend.

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Old 10-05-2014, 12:45
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Market News
8 May 2014

Draghi dropped EUR/USD


EUR/USD hit a 2.5-year high of $1.3990 as the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged with a minimum bid rate at 0.25%.

Euro plummeted by 100 pips $1.3890 as the ECB president Draghi hinted on a rate cut in June on the press-conference that followed the policy announcement.

Key points of the press-conference:
  1. [COLOR="Red"]ECB open to cut rates in June if needed[/COLOR];
  2. Euro’s impact on inflation is a serious cause for concern;
  3. Inflation is expected to remain around present low levels for month ahead, rising in 2015 and reaching target only in 2016;
  4. Economic risks remain to the downside, so the bank will closely monitor the geopolitical and exchange rate risks.

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  #152  
Old 12-05-2014, 19:27
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Market News

May 12: Asian session



Capital markets are cautious as the Ukraine crisis remains in focus. Investors are ready for a possible escalation in Ukraine's civil conflicts after anti-Kiev rebels declared victory in the separation referendum. Russia president Putin didn’t give any comments on the situation so far.

Chinese shares were boosted by hopes of capital market reform, while Indian shares jumped to record high on the prospect of a more business-friendly government winning India's general election, with exit polls later coming out later in the day. MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index outside Japan added 0.6% during the session.

USD/JPY was the most active currency in the session, opening the week with a bullish gap. Gains were capped by the 102.05 mark so far. AUD/USD added 30 pips, but holds below the $0.9400 mark, while NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8620. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are well-bid following the last week’s sharp selloff.

There is a lack of major economic releases on Monday. On Tuesday watch the industrial production and retail sales in China and the retail sales in the US.

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FX BAZOOKA - May 12: Asian session
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Old 12-05-2014, 20:08
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Market News
12 May 2014,

CBI: BoE to hike rates in Q1 2015


According to the latest Confederation of British Industry report, the Bank of England will likely raise interest rates in Q1 2015.

Confederation’s 2014 UK growth forecast was revised up from 2.7% to 3.0%. As for 2015, the economy is expected to grow by 2.7% vs. previously forecasted 2.5%.

However the CBI warned that political uncertainty remained “a major risk to the recovery” (they mean the elections coming in May 2015):

“Businesses recognize the realities of election time but want all parties to ensure their policies make a positive difference. Politicians must be wary of the risk of headline-grabbing policies that weaken investment, opportunity and jobs”.



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Old 13-05-2014, 01:12
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Market News

May 12: American Session




[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS[/COLOR]

U.S. dollar index is consolidating around the 79.90 mark today which it reached on Friday, but the market is expecting a report on past month's administration of the budget. So, volatility increase is possible. Major stock indexes in America are showing steady growth today. Thus, DJIA has set new highs for the past few years, rising to the 16690.50 figure (+0.55 %). S&P500 is adding about 0.73%.

It is relatively calm in the currency markets. The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in the 1.3750-1.3770 range. USD/CHF is in the sideways trend as well - the bulls can not break through 0.8780. The GBP/USD currency pair was correcting to the 1.6900 figure, but the bears have stepped up the pressure and lowered the rate to 1.6870. The Dollar is quite confident against the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY has grown to the 102.16 figure, but it may stumble upon a powerful resistance yet in the 102.20-102.25 area.

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Old 13-05-2014, 11:19
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Market News

May 13: Asian session



Asian stock markets are mostly trading in the positive zone with MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan adding 1% and Japanese Nikkei 225 index adding almost 2%. Indian shares also rose by 2%, boosted by exit polls predicting India's business-friendly opposition party would win the elections. The markets showed limited reaction to industrial production and retail sales data from China, which came out almost in line with forecasts.

USD/JPY pair extends the upside for a third day in a row, testing 102.30. AUD/USD failed to rise above the $0.9400 mark for now, rolling back to $0.9340. NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8620. EUR/USD and GBP/USD were almost unchanged in the Asian session. Markets are waiting for the EZ and German ZEW indices releases.

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Old 13-05-2014, 14:11
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CFTC: USD shorts increased


Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 9 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on May 6. According to the report, large traders and speculators increased their short USD positions from $0.7 billion on April 29 to $2 billion on May 6. The overall USD position is now at the lowest level of the year.





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FX BAZOOKA - CFTC: USD shorts increased
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Old 14-05-2014, 00:42
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Market News

May 13th: American session



[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Tatiana Norkina , an analyst at FBS
[/COLOR]

The U.S. dollar strengthened before the advent of European statistics today. According to the report of the Centre for European Economic Research economic expectations in Europe fell to 55.2 points in the past month, while analysts expected growth to 63.5. However, the appearance of weak data on U.S. retail sales (0.1 % vs. 0.4%) weighed on the dollar index, which now adds only 0.17 %. However, the positive trend continues. U.S. stock indexes grow as well. So,

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FX BAZOOKA - May 13th: American session
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Old 14-05-2014, 16:23
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Market News

May 14: Asian session


Asian stock markets rose with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 0.7% in the session. Commodity currencies are in demand today. AUD/USD pushed higher, testing the $0.9400 resistance to the upside. NZD/USD also is trading in the positive zone, but holds below the yesterday’s high of $0.8670. New Zealand retail sales growth slowed to 0.7%. RBNZ’s Wheeler said on press-conference that rate rises will help damp the house price inflation.

EUR/USD stabilized above the 5-week low, finding support at $1.3700. However, the euro remains weak against the other major currencies following the last week’s ECB meeting.

GBP/USD bounced from the daily lows around $1.6820 to $1.6870. Markets wait for the UK labor market data (8:30 GMT) and for the BoE Inflation Report and Carney speech (9:30 GMT).



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Old 14-05-2014, 16:54
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Market News
14 May 2014

GBP/USD down on labor data


UK labor market data came out mixed. Unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.8% in line with forecasts, but the jobless claims contracted less than expected (-25K vs. expected -30.7K). Weak wage growth remains a matter of concern for the markets. GBP/USD came under a selling pressure right after the release.

The markets now await the BoE Inflation Report and Marc Carney’s speech at 9:30 GMT.


Chart. H1 GBP/USD

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FX BAZOOKA - GBP/USD down on labor data
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Old 15-05-2014, 07:42
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Market News

May 15: Asian session




Asian shares fell as a stronger yen weighed on Japanese shares and after US equity indices dropped from the record highs. Nikkei 225 is down by about 1%. MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined by 0.3%.

USD/JPY dipped to 101.66, but then recovered to the opening level of 101.87. US 10-year Treasury yields fell to the 6-month low yesterday. Japanese GDP product expanded at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years (+1.5%) reducing the odds for additional Bank of Japan easing.

AUD/USD pulled down to $0.9375 after having tested $0.9410 yesterday. Gold also consolidates, following the yesterday’s bullish move. Meanwhile, NZD/USD extends the upside, testing $0.8685. New Zealand annual budget was released today and showed the government sees a lot of progress in the economy in recent years.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3715 area. French economy stagnated in Q1, while German economic growth was slightly better than expected (+0.8%). GBP/USD edged up a bit to $1.6770 after yesterday’s decline.

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